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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Mercer

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:105.1
Current RPI:98
Expected SOS:229
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:10-2
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:37.29%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:109
Expected OOC SOS:212


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
26-778.79%77.85.63%
25-875.76%89.519.12%
24-875.00%98.62.07%
23-874.19%101.71.60%
24-972.73%100.725.44%
23-971.88%109.55.79%
22-970.97%112.75.02%
23-1069.70%111.715.77%
22-1068.75%120.84.65%
21-1067.74%124.44.60%
22-1166.67%123.35.28%
21-1165.62%131.61.77%
20-1164.52%137.11.74%
21-1263.64%133.90.74%
20-1262.50%146.80.34%
19-1261.29%149.60.32%
20-1360.61%154.50.02%
19-1359.38%153.00.05%
18-1358.06%163.20.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Missouri (13.3)B12A81-63L0%0.0
11-17Furman (224.7)SCA46-66W100%0.0
11-21Sam Houston St. (285.4)SlndH60-38W100%0.0
11-22Niagara (208.6)MAACH74-55W100%0.0
11-23South Dakota St. (47.6)SumH61-74L0%0.0
12-1Lipscomb (208.5)ASunA72-79W100%0.0
12-3Belmont (54.3)ASunA82-78L0%0.0
12-7Samford (252.5)SCA78-83W100%0.0
12-10Chattanooga (277.7)SCH67-56W100%0.0
12-18Seton Hall (59.3)BEA80-77L0%0.0
12-20Georgia (139.5)SECA72-58L0%0.0
12-22Georgia Tech (174.6)ACCA59-65W100%0.0
12-28Tulsa (106.0)CUSAA68-62L0%0.0
12-30Navy (316.2)PatA56-65W100%0.0
1-2Florida Gulf Coast (205.9)ASunH76-54W100%0.0
1-4Stetson (254.8)ASunH75-59W100%0.0
1-7East Tennessee St. (186.1)ASunA76-61L0%0.0
1-9South Carolina Upstate (158.8)ASunA66-73W100%0.0
1-13Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH81-51W100%0.0
1-21North Florida (184.9)ASunH69-58W100%0.0
1-23Jacksonville (287.3)ASunH75-65W100%0.0
1-28Stetson (254.8)ASunA64-75W100%0.0
1-30Florida Gulf Coast (205.9)ASunA66-75W100%0.0
2-4South Carolina Upstate (158.8)ASunH61-47W100%0.0
2-6East Tennessee St. (186.1)ASunH0-080%9.0
2-10Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA0-092%15.6
2-18Jacksonville (287.3)ASunA0-080%9.4
2-20North Florida (184.9)ASunA0-067%4.7
2-23Lipscomb (208.5)ASunH0-087%12.2
2-25Belmont (54.3)ASunH0-044%-1.8