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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:194.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:275
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:293


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16George Mason (201.0)A10H69-60W100%0.0
11-19Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH70-49W100%0.0
11-23Davidson (64.0)A10A77-71L0%0.0
11-26Tulane (227.0)AmerN61-71W100%0.0
11-27Appalachian St. (259.0)SBN71-70W100%0.0
11-29Western Michigan (202.0)MACN68-65W100%0.0
12-5Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH68-43W100%0.0
12-15Auburn (175.0)SECA78-71L0%0.0
12-19Arkansas (133.0)SECA66-69W100%0.0
12-22Ohio St. (74.0)B10A64-44L0%0.0
12-30Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA73-76W100%0.0
1-2Samford (252.0)SCH69-50W100%0.0
1-5Chattanooga (50.0)SCA74-62L0%0.0
1-9The Citadel (322.0)SCA80-91W100%0.0
1-14Furman (167.0)SCH69-65W100%0.0
1-16Wofford (199.0)SCH70-69W100%0.0
1-21East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA65-63L0%0.0
1-24Western Carolina (166.0)SCA86-80L0%0.0
1-28VMI (316.0)SCH73-58W100%0.0
1-30UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH81-67W100%0.0
2-1Samford (252.0)SCA70-85W100%0.0
2-6The Citadel (322.0)SCH88-72W100%0.0
2-8Chattanooga (50.0)SCH66-72L0%0.0
2-11Wofford (199.0)SCA79-70L0%0.0
2-13Furman (167.0)SCA85-74L0%0.0
2-18Western Carolina (166.0)SCH65-72L0%0.0
2-20East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH74-77L0%0.0
2-25VMI (316.0)SCA91-82L0%0.0
2-28UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA69-65L0%0.0
3-4The Citadel (322.0)SCN71-69W100%0.0
3-5East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCN81-65L0%0.0