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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:71.7
Current RPI:49
Expected SOS:31
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.42%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:180


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
26-876.47%15.00.02%
25-875.76%25.00.01%
24-875.00%33.70.03%
26-974.29%13.00.02%
25-973.53%20.00.07%
24-972.73%29.90.12%
23-971.88%42.50.19%
25-1071.43%20.30.11%
24-1070.59%30.60.38%
23-1069.70%41.61.56%
22-1068.75%54.21.38%
24-1168.57%26.90.60%
23-1167.65%39.81.53%
22-1166.67%51.46.51%
23-1265.71%35.80.87%
21-1165.62%65.25.00%
22-1264.71%48.22.10%
21-1263.64%59.913.46%
22-1362.86%44.80.60%
20-1262.50%75.812.25%
21-1361.76%56.81.99%
20-1360.61%70.315.76%
21-1460.00%53.10.28%
19-1359.38%87.315.77%
20-1458.82%68.61.04%
19-1457.58%82.37.52%
20-1557.14%62.60.09%
18-1456.25%98.78.44%
19-1555.88%78.40.13%
18-1554.55%94.00.97%
17-1553.12%109.81.19%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Bucknell (80.9)PatH70-58W100%0.0
11-14South Dakota St. (49.5)SumH71-55W100%0.0
11-17Fairfield (133.0)MAACH67-57W100%0.0
11-21Mount St. Mary's (290.0)NECH85-56W100%0.0
11-24DePaul (195.3)BEN85-86W100%0.0
11-25Indiana St. (137.7)MVCN76-69W100%0.0
11-27Dayton (83.7)A10N70-86L0%0.0
11-30Virginia Tech (95.1)ACCH58-55W100%0.0
12-3Southern California (237.1)P12H55-40W100%0.0
12-6Appalachian St. (254.2)SCH70-56W100%0.0
12-10St. Peter's (280.4)MAACH69-47W100%0.0
12-13Central Michigan (271.5)MACH76-56W100%0.0
12-22North Dakota St. (121.0)SumH63-59W100%0.0
12-27Illinois (56.7)B10A81-72L0%0.0
1-1Michigan (34.3)B10A61-56L0%0.0
1-4Iowa (149.1)B10H62-64L0%0.0
1-8Purdue (69.2)B10H66-79L0%0.0
1-12Indiana (22.0)B10A74-77W100%0.0
1-15Penn St. (172.5)B10A66-80W100%0.0
1-22Northwestern (66.4)B10H75-52W100%0.0
1-25Michigan St. (9.7)B10A68-52L0%0.0
1-28Illinois (56.7)B10H77-72W100%0.0
2-1Iowa (149.1)B10A63-59L0%0.0
2-5Nebraska (136.9)B10A61-69W100%0.0
2-9Wisconsin (23.0)B10H0-028%-6.4
2-14Ohio St. (4.1)B10H0-017%-10.6
2-18Northwestern (66.4)B10A0-044%-1.5
2-22Michigan St. (9.7)B10H0-029%-6.1
2-25Indiana (22.0)B10H0-035%-4.2
2-28Wisconsin (23.0)B10A0-012%-13.0
3-3Nebraska (136.9)B10H0-081%9.7