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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:258.4
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:280
Current SOS:53
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:148



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-8107.70.03%
20-9136.30.11%
19-10139.10.38%
18-11159.11.26%
17-12180.22.85%
16-13198.65.76%
15-14217.210.47%
14-15235.914.15%
13-16254.516.53%
12-17271.416.54%
11-18287.713.58%
10-19301.99.58%
9-20314.45.10%
8-21324.42.50%
7-22332.50.91%
6-23338.80.18%
5-24343.70.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Lafayette (115.5)PatH50-77L0%0.0
11-16North Carolina (14.5)ACCA103-59L0%0.0
11-19Bradley (284.0)MVCA61-68W100%0.0
11-22Georgetown (44.3)BEA80-66L0%0.0
11-26Chattanooga (250.7)SCA0-034%-5.1
12-2Youngstown St. (259.1)HorzH0-054%1.1
12-7Buffalo (75.7)MACH0-029%-6.6
12-13Duquesne (155.3)A10H0-033%-5.2
12-17Toledo (77.9)MACA0-010%-15.4
12-22Delaware (309.6)CAAH0-072%7.0
12-30Clemson (118.4)ACCA0-07%-17.8
1-3Mount St. Mary's (271.7)NECH0-066%5.1
1-5St. Francis PA (251.3)NECA0-037%-3.9
1-8Wagner (264.2)NECA0-040%-2.9
1-10Central Connecticut (321.0)NECA0-051%0.3
1-16St. Francis NY (205.1)NECH0-046%-1.1
1-18Sacred Heart (314.8)NECH0-076%8.5
1-22Mount St. Mary's (271.7)NECA0-043%-2.1
1-24St. Francis NY (205.1)NECA0-025%-8.3
1-29Fairleigh Dickinson (279.0)NECH0-068%5.6
1-31Bryant (174.8)NECH0-048%-0.7
2-5LIU Brooklyn (273.6)NECA0-039%-3.4
2-7Fairleigh Dickinson (279.0)NECA0-045%-1.6
2-12LIU Brooklyn (273.6)NECH0-062%3.8
2-14Central Connecticut (321.0)NECH0-073%7.5
2-19Sacred Heart (314.8)NECA0-054%1.3
2-21Bryant (174.8)NECA0-026%-7.9
2-26Wagner (264.2)NECH0-064%4.3
2-28St. Francis PA (251.3)NECH0-061%3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC32.8126.4035.0043.77-9.84-3.29
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.4650.0039.300.00-0.95
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.4433.3330.91-0.00-1.69
St. Francis NYNEC2.084.430.0056.18-2.080.55
St. Francis PANEC0.004.4333.3344.14-0.00-0.52
WagnerNEC0.004.430.0039.97-0.00-0.89
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.410.0029.76-0.00-1.78
BryantNEC0.004.4050.0054.000.000.35
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.400.0045.60-0.00-0.39
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.4033.3338.28-0.00-1.03
LafayettePat12.501.9066.6763.964.170.53
DelawareCAA0.001.790.0020.29-0.00-1.06
DuquesneA100.001.79100.0053.200.000.11
GeorgetownBE12.501.78100.0061.3412.500.40
ClemsonACC0.001.7550.0048.910.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC12.501.75100.0070.3212.500.71
BuffaloMAC0.001.7566.6760.130.000.36
ToledoMAC0.001.7533.3361.76-0.000.41
BradleyMVC12.501.7250.0024.000.00-0.90
ChattanoogaSC0.001.720.0045.73-0.00-0.15
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.7240.0037.84-0.00-0.42
NJITind0.000.3025.0025.81-0.00-0.14
RutgersB100.000.2766.6737.040.00-0.07
HofstraCAA0.000.2475.0067.090.000.08
New HampshireAE0.000.240.0041.80-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.21100.0066.600.000.07
Notre DameACC0.000.2180.0073.060.000.10
TowsonCAA0.000.2180.0059.220.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.18100.0051.580.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.1860.0057.690.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1866.6764.690.000.05
LehighPat0.000.180.0032.42-0.00-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1850.0054.510.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.18100.0054.990.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.1775.0070.240.000.07
BrownIvy0.000.1725.0036.88-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1520.0028.32-0.00-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1550.0038.210.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.000.1525.0036.00-0.00-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1566.6751.770.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.1575.0069.430.000.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.1575.0067.590.000.05
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0060.160.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.12100.0063.690.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0058.720.000.02
NavyPat0.000.1220.0032.30-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0029.00-0.00-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.000.1250.0032.360.00-0.04
MaineAE0.000.120.0017.44-0.00-0.08
VermontAE0.000.1233.3358.75-0.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.120.0033.64-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6753.120.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.1233.3341.47-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.12100.0063.820.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.12100.0052.480.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1233.3346.72-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.12100.0061.860.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1250.0042.650.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.12100.0085.260.000.08
MarylandB100.000.12100.0060.180.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.1266.6751.350.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0052.940.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1266.6746.160.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1275.0070.770.000.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0053.380.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.1175.0040.710.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0062.920.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0920.0034.58-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0966.6766.540.000.03
PennIvy1.560.090.0025.85-1.56-0.04
PrincetonIvy1.560.0925.0041.22-0.78-0.02
DavidsonA102.080.0950.0053.570.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0933.3340.10-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0933.3348.37-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.09100.0054.720.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3344.23-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0925.0043.02-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0933.3334.44-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0078.240.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.0950.0053.140.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0966.6746.700.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0960.0041.500.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0028.81-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0920.0036.50-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0075.950.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.090.0035.32-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.09100.0060.050.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0966.6732.670.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0044.560.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0054.910.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.090.0034.13-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0063.150.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.140.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0633.3341.27-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0071.680.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0075.510.000.03
KansasB120.000.0650.0062.480.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.080.0650.0063.270.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3363.61-0.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3361.17-0.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0675.0072.870.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3353.24-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0024.98-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0650.0051.920.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0062.400.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3324.24-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.480.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.33-0.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0666.6749.820.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.97-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0037.72-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0633.3353.66-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.50-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0071.230.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6757.190.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0028.09-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0640.0039.12-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0050.84-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0081.510.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.66-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0054.620.000.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.04-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0049.00-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.310.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.570.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.100.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3343.07-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB2.080.0675.0056.831.040.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.410.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0085.040.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0070.780.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.78-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0054.34-0.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0034.75-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0666.6763.860.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3341.23-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.590.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0035.81-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.640.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0079.170.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0075.190.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0070.900.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3365.28-0.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0068.410.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6746.380.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.160.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6732.890.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0088.080.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0031.49-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0038.29-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.83-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0038.34-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.560.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6768.430.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.410.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3349.44-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0028.04-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0023.10-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0320.0021.84-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0056.300.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6750.120.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.50-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.19-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.870.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0066.86-0.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0046.140.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.080.030.0021.84-2.08-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0044.310.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0058.810.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6765.070.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.09-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.380.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.080.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.220.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0031.430.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.24-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0325.0044.56-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB121.560.03100.0071.891.560.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.710.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.980.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0035.550.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.35-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0063.170.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.430.000.00
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.830.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3347.23-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.080.030.0069.20-2.080.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0049.19-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0070.150.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0043.24-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.220.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0028.27-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3337.81-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0050.460.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0043.51-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3323.98-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0056.01-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.87-0.00-0.00