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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:129.0
Current RPI:129
Expected SOS:232
Current SOS:232
Current Record:21-13
Expected Record:21-13
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-13129.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH86-66W100%0.0
11-12Lafayette (258.0)PatA81-90W100%0.0
11-14Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA69-64L0%0.0
11-17Kentucky (17.0)SECA87-49L0%0.0
11-21UT Arlington (199.0)SBH88-81W100%0.0
11-23Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA87-74L0%0.0
11-26Buffalo (106.0)MACA81-66L0%0.0
11-30Delaware (65.0)CAAA86-67L0%0.0
12-4Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA84-76L0%0.0
12-7Toledo (38.0)MACH77-80L0%0.0
12-14Duquesne (187.0)A10A63-67W100%0.0
12-18Campbell (316.0)BSthH72-61W100%0.0
12-22Oakland (181.0)HorzA100-94L0%0.0
12-30Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A92-66L0%0.0
1-4Alabama (124.0)SECA64-56L0%0.0
1-9Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA70-79W100%0.0
1-11Bryant (177.0)NECA67-71W100%0.0
1-16St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH73-68W100%0.0
1-18Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA69-77W100%0.0
1-23Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH91-65W100%0.0
1-25Wagner (218.0)NECH74-70W100%0.0
1-30Bryant (177.0)NECH79-76W100%0.0
2-1Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH73-74L0%0.0
2-6LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA56-65W100%0.0
2-8St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA50-72W100%0.0
2-13St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA60-66W100%0.0
2-15Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH69-61W100%0.0
2-20LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH73-64W100%0.0
2-22St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH71-70W100%0.0
2-27Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA64-69W100%0.0
3-1Wagner (218.0)NECA59-48L0%0.0
3-5Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH60-53W100%0.0
3-8St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH60-57W100%0.0
3-11Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH71-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC26.3926.3966.0066.008.458.45
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.215.2151.7251.720.180.18
St. Francis PANEC5.165.1635.7135.71-1.48-1.48
WagnerNEC3.783.7860.7160.710.810.81
St. Francis NYNEC3.763.7658.6258.620.650.65
BryantNEC3.743.7458.6258.620.640.64
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3.713.7133.3333.33-1.24-1.24
Sacred HeartNEC3.673.6717.2417.24-2.40-2.40
LIU BrooklynNEC3.663.6633.3333.33-1.22-1.22
Central ConnecticutNEC2.322.3232.1432.14-0.83-0.83
Eastern MichiganMAC1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
OaklandHorz1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Cleveland St.Horz1.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
LafayettePat1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
Youngstown St.Horz1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
ToledoMAC1.591.5980.6580.650.970.97
KentuckySEC1.571.5769.7069.700.620.62
DuquesneA101.541.5442.8642.86-0.22-0.22
UT ArlingtonSB1.541.5444.8344.83-0.16-0.16
BuffaloMAC1.541.5462.9662.960.400.40
DelawareCAA1.521.5272.7372.730.690.69
AlabamaSEC1.491.4936.6736.67-0.40-0.40
CampbellBSth1.471.4733.3333.33-0.49-0.49
Oklahoma St.B121.471.4762.5062.500.370.37
Savannah St.MEAC1.471.4737.9337.93-0.35-0.35
LehighPat0.270.2743.7543.75-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.240.2436.0036.00-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.240.2430.3030.30-0.09-0.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
UICHorz0.200.2013.7913.79-0.14-0.14
Wright St.Horz0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
DetroitHorz0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
BucknellPat0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.170.1777.7877.780.090.09
Ball St.MAC0.170.1710.7110.71-0.13-0.13
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
NavyPat0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Texas TechB120.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
New HampshireAE0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
OhioMAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
YaleIvy0.140.1451.8551.850.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
FordhamA100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Loyola MDPat0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
FloridaSEC0.140.1494.1294.120.120.12
Seton HallBE0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
HartfordAE0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
George MasonA100.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
BrownIvy0.120.1251.8551.850.000.00
ColgatePat0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Michigan St.B100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
LSUSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
UMBCAE0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
BaylorB120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.07-0.07
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0478.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
TCUB120.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01