Robert Morris

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	132.0
Current RPI:	132
Expected SOS:	273
Current SOS:	273
Current Record:	23-10
Expected Record:	23-10
Current Conf Record:	15-5
Expected Conf Record:	15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-1
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	126
Expected OOC SOS:	224

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-10	132.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	79-54	L	0%
11-12	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	H	60-89	L	0%
11-13	Fordham (228.0)	A10	H	74-58	W	100%
11-17	Xavier (87.0)	A10	A	61-59	L	0%
11-19	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	H	71-60	W	100%
11-20	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	71-62	W	100%
11-26	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	61-52	L	0%
12-1	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	H	84-76	W	100%
12-4	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	58-61	W	100%
12-8	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	A	54-66	W	100%
12-15	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	H	91-69	W	100%
12-18	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	61-66	W	100%
12-20	Arkansas (89.0)	SEC	A	79-74	L	0%
1-3	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	H	77-84	L	0%
1-5	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	70-77	L	0%
1-10	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	A	54-88	W	100%
1-12	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	A	55-70	W	100%
1-17	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	66-62	W	100%
1-19	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	87-75	W	100%
1-24	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	A	70-84	W	100%
1-26	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	76-68	W	100%
1-31	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	A	71-61	L	0%
2-2	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	57-60	W	100%
2-6	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	H	60-48	W	100%
2-9	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	83-79	W	100%
2-14	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	A	63-61	L	0%
2-16	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	A	63-68	W	100%
2-21	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	H	77-65	W	100%
2-23	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	H	89-46	W	100%
2-28	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	75-77	W	100%
3-2	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	A	61-81	W	100%
3-6	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	75-57	W	100%
3-9	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	60-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Robert Morris	NEC	26.27	26.27	70.32	70.32	10.68	10.68
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	3.85	3.85	56.67	56.67	0.51	0.51
Quinnipiac	NEC	3.83	3.83	48.28	48.28	-0.13	-0.13
Bryant	NEC	3.83	3.83	64.29	64.29	1.09	1.09
St. Francis PA	NEC	3.80	3.80	18.52	18.52	-2.39	-2.39
Central Connecticut	NEC	3.78	3.78	42.86	42.86	-0.54	-0.54
Sacred Heart	NEC	3.78	3.78	33.33	33.33	-1.26	-1.26
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	3.78	3.78	24.14	24.14	-1.95	-1.95
Monmouth	NEC	3.77	3.77	34.48	34.48	-1.17	-1.17
St. Francis NY	NEC	3.77	3.77	39.29	39.29	-0.81	-0.81
Long Island	NEC	2.43	2.43	62.50	62.50	0.61	0.61
Wagner	NEC	2.38	2.38	63.33	63.33	0.63	0.63
Lehigh	Pat	1.79	1.79	67.86	67.86	0.64	0.64
Fordham	A10	1.64	1.64	23.33	23.33	-0.87	-0.87
Xavier	A10	1.61	1.61	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Hampton	MEAC	1.61	1.61	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Ohio	MAC	1.59	1.59	75.00	75.00	0.80	0.80
Duquesne	A10	1.59	1.59	27.59	27.59	-0.71	-0.71
Bowling Green	MAC	1.59	1.59	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.56	1.56	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Rider	MAAC	1.56	1.56	54.84	54.84	0.15	0.15
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.54	1.54	39.29	39.29	-0.33	-0.33
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.54	1.54	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
Campbell	BSth	1.54	1.54	37.93	37.93	-0.37	-0.37
Arkansas	SEC	1.52	1.52	58.06	58.06	0.24	0.24
Lafayette	Pat	0.38	0.38	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.25	0.25	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.24	0.24	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Colgate	Pat	0.23	0.23	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
American	Pat	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Brown	Ivy	0.20	0.20	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.20	0.20	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Kent St.	MAC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.20	0.20	23.33	23.33	-0.11	-0.11
Stony Brook	AE	0.18	0.18	76.67	76.67	0.10	0.10
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Albany	AE	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Syracuse	BE	0.15	0.15	74.29	74.29	0.07	0.07
Binghamton	AE	0.15	0.15	6.90	6.90	-0.13	-0.13
Akron	MAC	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Western Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Temple	A10	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Longwood	BSth	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.10	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	7.14	7.14	-0.08	-0.08
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00