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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:237.0
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:282
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-10
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:98



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19237.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Penn (203.0)IvyH50-67L0%0.0
11-13DePaul (239.0)BEA78-72L0%0.0
11-16Bucknell (63.0)PatA75-62L0%0.0
11-20Richmond (80.0)A10A81-69L0%0.0
11-22Kansas St. (57.0)B12A61-40L0%0.0
11-25Hampton (283.0)MEACN62-48W100%0.0
11-26Towson (88.0)CAAA66-67W100%0.0
11-30Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH74-75L0%0.0
12-3Lehigh (97.0)PatA64-58L0%0.0
12-6Duquesne (267.0)A10N64-60W100%0.0
12-10Oakland (109.0)HorzH53-74L0%0.0
12-17Virginia (18.0)ACCA79-39L0%0.0
12-21Buffalo (146.0)MACN74-71W100%0.0
12-29Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA67-78W100%0.0
12-31Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA81-77L0%0.0
1-5LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH54-65L0%0.0
1-7St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH62-58W100%0.0
1-12St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH57-77L0%0.0
1-14Wagner (244.0)NECA53-50L0%0.0
1-19Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH74-67W100%0.0
1-21Bryant (285.0)NECH56-59L0%0.0
1-26Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA48-47L0%0.0
1-28St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA89-83L0%0.0
2-2LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA63-67W100%0.0
2-4St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA54-78W100%0.0
2-9Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH70-74L0%0.0
2-11Wagner (244.0)NECH50-48W100%0.0
2-16Bryant (285.0)NECA81-73L0%0.0
2-18Central Connecticut (344.0)NECA64-74W100%0.0
2-23Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH77-76W100%0.0
2-25Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH79-72W100%0.0
3-1LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA68-69W100%0.0
3-4Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA75-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC26.4426.4445.8645.86-2.19-2.19
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.545.5451.6151.610.180.18
LIU BrooklynNEC5.385.3864.2964.291.541.54
St. Francis PANEC4.134.1344.8344.83-0.43-0.43
WagnerNEC4.014.0151.8551.850.150.15
Sacred HeartNEC3.993.9943.3343.33-0.53-0.53
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3.993.9933.3333.33-1.33-1.33
BryantNEC3.973.9731.0331.03-1.50-1.50
Central ConnecticutNEC3.963.9622.2222.22-2.20-2.20
St. Francis NYNEC3.943.9410.7110.71-3.09-3.09
LehighPat1.701.7060.0060.000.340.34
BucknellPat1.681.6875.7675.760.860.86
DuquesneA101.641.6432.2632.26-0.58-0.58
Youngstown St.Horz1.591.5932.2632.26-0.56-0.56
RichmondA101.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
OaklandHorz1.591.5972.4172.410.710.71
PennIvy1.571.5744.4444.44-0.17-0.17
TowsonCAA1.571.5761.2961.290.350.35
VirginiaACC1.571.5767.7467.740.560.56
HamptonMEAC1.561.5644.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Kansas St.B121.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
BuffaloMAC1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
DePaulBE1.521.5225.8125.81-0.73-0.73
Loyola MDPat0.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.250.2560.7160.710.050.05
FordhamA100.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
ArmyPat0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
AmericanPat0.220.2226.6726.67-0.10-0.10
BrownIvy0.210.2139.2939.29-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
George MasonA100.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.180.1825.9325.93-0.08-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
HartfordAE0.170.1728.1228.12-0.08-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
PrincetonIvy0.150.1578.5778.570.090.09
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
MaineAE0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
ColgatePat0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
UMBCAE0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
RutgersB100.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
La SalleA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Saint LouisA100.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.100.1061.5461.540.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
DetroitHorz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
HofstraCAA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
LamarSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00