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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:250.5
Current RPI:202
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:126
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:229
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-9107.00.03%
20-10130.00.06%
19-11143.00.28%
18-12161.11.05%
17-13177.22.64%
16-14195.96.75%
15-15214.311.67%
14-16233.217.32%
13-17251.918.72%
12-18269.316.92%
11-19285.412.59%
10-20297.87.32%
9-21308.93.13%
8-22318.71.17%
7-23324.00.30%
6-24337.00.02%
5-25334.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Lafayette (88.4)PatH50-77L0%0.0
11-16North Carolina (11.7)ACCA103-59L0%0.0
11-19Bradley (270.8)MVCA61-68W100%0.0
11-22Georgetown (44.9)BEA80-66L0%0.0
11-26Chattanooga (209.1)SCA61-46L0%0.0
11-27Louisiana Monroe (200.3)SBN54-71W100%0.0
12-2Youngstown St. (174.8)HorzH81-89L0%0.0
12-7Buffalo (45.1)MACH59-74L0%0.0
12-13Duquesne (215.3)A10H75-59W100%0.0
12-17Toledo (121.8)MACA0-013%-13.4
12-22Delaware (332.6)CAAH0-089%14.5
12-30Clemson (160.0)ACCA0-016%-11.7
1-3Mount St. Mary's (263.2)NECH0-074%7.4
1-5St. Francis PA (172.1)NECA0-023%-8.8
1-8Wagner (276.4)NECA0-042%-2.4
1-10Central Connecticut (310.2)NECA0-048%-0.6
1-16St. Francis NY (239.3)NECH0-057%2.1
1-18Sacred Heart (163.4)NECH0-050%0.1
1-22Mount St. Mary's (263.2)NECA0-045%-1.5
1-24St. Francis NY (239.3)NECA0-028%-6.9
1-29Fairleigh Dickinson (259.1)NECH0-068%5.4
1-31Bryant (202.7)NECH0-056%1.9
2-5LIU Brooklyn (256.9)NECA0-034%-4.7
2-7Fairleigh Dickinson (259.1)NECA0-038%-3.5
2-12LIU Brooklyn (256.9)NECH0-064%4.2
2-14Central Connecticut (310.2)NECH0-076%8.4
2-19Sacred Heart (163.4)NECA0-023%-8.8
2-21Bryant (202.7)NECA0-028%-7.0
2-26Wagner (276.4)NECH0-071%6.5
2-28St. Francis PA (172.1)NECH0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC28.1026.3833.3343.10-9.37-3.64
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.354.3028.5740.63-0.15-0.81
Sacred HeartNEC0.354.2850.0057.360.000.63
St. Francis NYNEC0.314.2825.0046.70-0.15-0.28
St. Francis PANEC0.004.2842.8655.29-0.000.45
WagnerNEC0.354.2814.2932.84-0.25-1.47
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.2622.2230.47-0.00-1.66
BryantNEC0.004.2528.5746.10-0.00-0.33
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.2525.0039.44-0.00-0.90
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.2537.5037.48-0.00-1.06
LafayettePat5.561.8471.4368.632.380.69
DelawareCAA0.001.730.008.11-0.00-1.45
DuquesneA105.561.7340.0040.28-1.11-0.34
GeorgetownBE5.561.7262.5058.301.390.29
North CarolinaACC5.561.6966.6770.701.850.70
ToledoMAC0.001.6955.5654.920.000.17
BuffaloMAC5.561.6971.4368.722.380.63
ClemsonACC0.001.6966.6744.570.00-0.18
BradleyMVC5.561.6737.5033.81-1.39-0.54
ChattanoogaSC5.561.6737.5049.18-1.39-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB5.561.6740.0048.92-1.11-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz5.561.6744.4449.31-0.62-0.02
NJITind0.460.2936.3641.92-0.13-0.05
RutgersB100.000.2660.0035.390.00-0.08
HofstraCAA0.000.2377.7877.550.000.13
New HampshireAE0.000.2357.1464.630.000.07
ArmyPat0.000.2077.7869.100.000.08
TowsonCAA0.310.2066.6751.390.100.01
Notre DameACC0.000.2090.9171.250.000.08
AmericanPat0.000.1860.0065.090.000.05
LehighPat0.000.1842.8651.80-0.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1762.5064.640.000.05
St. John'sBE0.000.1787.5064.670.000.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1744.4456.62-0.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.590.1783.3363.180.390.04
AkronMAC0.000.1760.0056.480.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.1740.0034.21-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1541.6743.24-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1555.5639.850.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.1440.0036.16-0.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.350.1470.0064.560.140.04
PittsburghACC0.460.1462.5053.840.120.01
ButlerBE0.900.1480.0072.430.540.06
Kent St.MAC0.280.1471.4360.170.120.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1275.0065.380.000.04
NavyPat0.000.1220.0021.16-0.00-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.660.1255.5655.850.070.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1233.3326.81-0.00-0.05
MaineAE0.000.1211.1121.00-0.00-0.07
VermontAE0.000.1250.0060.040.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.350.1275.0064.650.170.03
ColgatePat0.000.1220.0042.53-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.1257.1452.850.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1188.8964.060.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.1130.0031.51-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.560.1122.2238.58-0.31-0.03
MarylandB100.000.1190.9167.920.000.04
RiderMAAC0.000.1145.4551.71-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.1166.6753.260.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1150.0056.650.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0037.860.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.1183.3366.520.190.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1157.1456.000.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1177.7851.200.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.1150.0050.920.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1180.0063.530.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1162.5054.950.000.01
DukeACC0.000.11100.0087.520.000.08
PennIvy0.350.0937.5032.38-0.09-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.350.0927.2737.98-0.16-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0920.0033.83-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3331.09-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0920.0020.84-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.310.0955.5631.620.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.280.0962.5065.100.070.03
FloridaSEC1.050.0960.0064.780.210.03
UABCUSA0.460.0933.3338.27-0.15-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0937.5048.43-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.280.0987.5076.910.210.05
DetroitHorz0.000.0950.0053.430.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0054.040.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0082.270.000.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.310.0925.0033.31-0.15-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0950.0049.920.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0955.5654.360.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0011.93-0.00-0.06
DrexelCAA0.350.0925.0037.29-0.17-0.02
WisconsinB100.620.0990.9188.300.510.07
William & MaryCAA0.000.0857.1456.250.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0833.3340.42-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0828.5732.96-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0875.0066.870.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0844.4433.13-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0822.2227.10-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.0850.0037.020.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0888.8984.020.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.0833.3347.31-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0085.390.000.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0850.0033.140.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.280.0837.5037.27-0.07-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0642.8633.13-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8639.29-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0064.120.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0671.4372.840.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.83-0.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.43-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0660.0047.810.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3341.99-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.770.0666.6772.470.260.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.50-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3342.09-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0677.7869.570.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0671.4377.180.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.02-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.60-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.780.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.650.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.100.000.00
KansasB120.310.0688.8969.900.240.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.310.0630.0028.28-0.12-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.930.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0045.540.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.370.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.41-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0644.4455.06-0.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.57-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.440.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5048.77-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.380.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.480.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0029.22-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7173.700.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3334.47-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.790.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.220.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0637.5041.09-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0642.8638.69-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0675.0061.240.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0079.360.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0687.5080.890.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7352.480.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0050.220.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5054.91-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.620.0628.5726.77-0.26-0.03
The CitadelSC0.310.0616.6729.59-0.21-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0640.0058.50-0.000.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.85-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0622.2245.74-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.930.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.0675.0077.280.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.140.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6739.030.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.110.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0614.2944.11-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0051.980.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0017.65-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0566.6741.850.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.620.05100.0094.460.620.05
Miami FLACC0.000.0590.0075.840.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6757.080.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0086.080.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.250.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0520.0033.87-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0544.4440.58-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0510.0021.35-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.460.0366.6758.510.150.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.460.030.0035.83-0.46-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.460.0320.0026.45-0.28-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.72-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.460.0333.3343.17-0.15-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.280.0322.2227.64-0.15-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.070.000.00
Penn St.B100.460.0390.9154.340.380.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5072.760.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0056.190.000.00
South DakotaSum0.280.0320.0040.86-0.17-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0377.7866.040.150.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0342.8644.96-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.280.0322.2242.30-0.15-0.00
West VirginiaB120.350.0390.0067.550.280.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3332.44-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0311.1129.23-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0355.5665.940.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.310.0362.5059.380.080.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.560.000.00
Kansas St.B120.310.0360.0038.270.06-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.82-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.310.0350.0059.030.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.49-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.310.030.0022.93-0.31-0.02
RadfordBSth0.310.0350.0054.960.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0371.4361.160.000.01
TCUB120.310.03100.0067.440.310.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.0350.0050.190.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.90-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.340.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0337.5032.05-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.350.0350.0061.890.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.540.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0013.10-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0342.8656.16-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.0340.0044.19-0.07-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5055.430.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7861.940.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0312.5024.45-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2932.16-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.900.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.350.0357.1454.620.050.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3351.71-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.59-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.280.0372.7362.660.130.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.05-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.280.0344.4469.77-0.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0049.29-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0362.5057.800.000.00
UCLAP120.280.0372.7357.470.130.00