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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:246.0
Current RPI:242
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:202
Current Record:2-6
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11116.00.03%
19-12129.50.14%
18-13145.10.46%
17-14164.81.80%
16-15181.13.97%
15-16199.28.40%
14-17217.712.95%
13-18234.516.78%
12-19251.118.18%
11-20266.715.40%
10-21281.810.89%
9-22295.16.39%
8-23307.63.03%
7-24318.71.14%
6-25325.40.39%
5-26330.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Penn (138.5)IvyH50-67L0%0.0
11-13DePaul (206.1)BEA78-72L0%0.0
11-16Bucknell (97.9)PatA75-62L0%0.0
11-20Richmond (173.8)A10A81-69L0%0.0
11-22Kansas St. (99.4)B12A61-40L0%0.0
11-25Hampton (332.8)MEACN62-48W100%0.0
11-26Towson (160.8)CAAA66-67W100%0.0
11-30Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzH74-75L0%0.0
12-3Lehigh (83.7)PatA0-011%-14.5
12-6Duquesne (255.5)A10N0-042%-2.5
12-10Oakland (89.5)HorzH0-017%-11.3
12-17Virginia (4.7)ACCA0-00%-33.7
12-21Buffalo (138.0)MACN0-028%-7.1
12-29Sacred Heart (299.9)NECA0-054%1.1
12-31Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECA0-046%-1.3
1-5LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECH0-056%1.8
1-7St. Francis NY (314.7)NECH0-075%8.1
1-12St. Francis PA (251.0)NECH0-062%3.7
1-14Wagner (204.5)NECA0-029%-6.7
1-19Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH0-069%5.8
1-21Bryant (194.6)NECH0-052%0.6
1-26Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECA0-028%-6.8
1-28St. Francis PA (251.0)NECA0-042%-2.5
2-2LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECA0-036%-4.4
2-4St. Francis NY (314.7)NECA0-056%1.9
2-9Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECH0-048%-0.7
2-11Wagner (204.5)NECH0-048%-0.6
2-16Bryant (194.6)NECA0-032%-5.5
2-18Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA0-049%-0.3
2-23Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECH0-066%4.9
2-25Sacred Heart (299.9)NECH0-073%7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC29.0226.3531.5841.22-10.69-4.63
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.1712.5048.08-0.00-0.16
Central ConnecticutNEC0.624.1640.0037.38-0.12-1.05
St. Francis PANEC0.004.1640.0043.54-0.00-0.54
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.1416.6729.01-0.00-1.74
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.1320.0033.45-0.00-1.37
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.1142.8638.14-0.00-0.98
BryantNEC0.004.1128.5749.65-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.1183.3358.250.000.68
WagnerNEC0.004.1033.3353.24-0.000.27
LehighPat0.001.7733.3366.21-0.000.58
DuquesneA100.001.7537.5033.86-0.00-0.57
BucknellPat6.701.7571.4366.592.870.58
RichmondA107.161.6950.0046.830.00-0.11
TowsonCAA6.251.6760.0056.371.250.21
OaklandHorz0.001.6783.3378.280.000.94
PennIvy6.251.6725.0056.36-3.120.21
Youngstown St.Horz6.251.6733.3335.37-2.08-0.49
VirginiaACC0.001.67100.0081.950.001.07
HamptonMEAC7.141.670.0035.49-7.14-0.48
Kansas St.B126.771.6483.3354.424.510.15
BuffaloMAC0.001.6140.0050.15-0.000.00
DePaulBE6.251.6175.0033.753.12-0.52
YaleIvy0.000.2833.3364.14-0.000.08
FordhamA100.000.2757.1443.680.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.2733.3340.49-0.00-0.05
AmericanPat0.000.2516.6735.65-0.00-0.07
LafayettePat0.000.2533.3331.87-0.00-0.09
BrownIvy0.000.2250.0042.420.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.2225.0040.81-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.2233.3345.58-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1971.4356.280.000.02
NavyPat0.620.1928.5743.62-0.27-0.02
George MasonA100.520.1957.1442.940.07-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1783.3362.080.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.170.0023.47-0.00-0.09
Seton HallBE0.000.1771.4354.520.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1666.6770.740.000.07
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1650.0053.530.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.1642.8647.69-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.1612.5022.55-0.00-0.09
Boston CollegeACC1.410.1650.0027.250.00-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.000.1425.0063.95-0.000.04
Stony BrookAE1.040.1416.6733.82-0.69-0.05
RutgersB100.620.1483.3344.770.42-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.140.0018.22-0.00-0.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1450.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.620.1433.3333.15-0.21-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.390.140.0038.35-0.39-0.03
La SalleA100.000.1460.0051.780.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1416.6730.27-0.00-0.05
Green BayHorz0.450.1433.3348.71-0.15-0.00
MaineAE0.000.1416.6725.61-0.00-0.07
ColgatePat0.000.1420.0041.31-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.450.1433.3341.52-0.15-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1457.1448.240.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.1380.0055.340.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1383.3380.550.000.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.520.1216.6737.09-0.35-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.110.0043.04-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.110.0024.19-0.00-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.000.1142.8640.94-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3358.080.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1185.7172.660.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1171.4363.090.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1160.0052.760.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1150.0052.140.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7174.430.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.1171.4355.750.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.110.0019.51-0.00-0.07
VillanovaBE0.620.11100.0083.120.620.07
XavierBE0.000.11100.0074.800.000.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1116.6727.03-0.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1180.0068.320.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1185.7155.550.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1128.5733.92-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1157.1444.160.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.1157.1440.550.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1185.7165.670.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.1033.3326.75-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1071.4368.970.000.04
RiderMAAC0.520.0950.0047.990.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0860.0070.140.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0842.8636.82-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0866.6775.370.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
AkronMAC0.450.0883.3369.840.300.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0833.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0875.0070.470.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.08100.0076.650.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.080.0028.15-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0871.4366.220.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
ButlerBE0.390.08100.0075.690.390.04
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.390.0833.3338.19-0.13-0.02
MarylandB101.410.0885.7156.491.010.01
VCUA100.000.0885.7178.150.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.390.0871.4352.370.170.00
DaytonA100.000.0866.6772.440.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.0885.7163.780.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.390.0816.6740.71-0.26-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.47-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.520.0675.0047.510.26-0.00
Miami FLACC0.620.0671.4365.740.270.02
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0620.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
ToledoMAC0.450.0642.8650.36-0.060.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.0017.30-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0019.30-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0550.0060.380.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0562.5056.500.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0540.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0091.060.000.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.050.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0520.0032.60-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0585.7180.010.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.450.0566.6765.810.150.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.170.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0525.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.920.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0571.4370.330.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0585.7170.990.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0583.3362.840.000.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
KansasB120.000.0585.7176.170.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0583.3351.920.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0583.3356.560.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0537.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.05100.0059.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0557.1464.940.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
FIUCUSA0.450.0316.6733.69-0.30-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.450.0357.1459.480.060.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.450.0383.3361.150.300.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DrakeMVC0.620.030.0021.30-0.62-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.620.0375.0064.960.310.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0366.6758.420.000.00
VMISC0.450.030.0021.15-0.45-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.450.0333.3348.73-0.15-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.390.0357.1448.860.06-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.450.030.0022.69-0.45-0.01