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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:291.0
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:279
Current SOS:279
Current Record:10-22
Expected Record:10-22
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-11
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-22291.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Penn (283.0)IvyA76-75L0%0.0
11-15Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA106-44L0%0.0
11-18Bucknell (183.0)PatH76-81L0%0.0
11-22Air Force (226.0)MWCA64-52L0%0.0
11-24New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA81-71L0%0.0
11-27Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA85-72L0%0.0
11-28Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACN67-64W100%0.0
12-2Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA65-58L0%0.0
12-5Oakland (116.0)HorzH74-92L0%0.0
12-14Columbia (132.0)IvyA78-71L0%0.0
12-17Lehigh (168.0)PatH69-67W100%0.0
12-19Duquesne (162.0)A10A72-65L0%0.0
12-29Georgia (62.0)SECA79-67L0%0.0
1-2Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH65-69L0%0.0
1-4Wagner (185.0)NECH69-72L0%0.0
1-7LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA60-70W100%0.0
1-9St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA56-49L0%0.0
1-14Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH52-76L0%0.0
1-16Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH64-58W100%0.0
1-21Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA45-59W100%0.0
1-23Bryant (320.0)NECA54-65W100%0.0
1-28Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA70-49L0%0.0
1-30St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA90-78L0%0.0
2-4Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH60-65L0%0.0
2-6Bryant (320.0)NECH89-71W100%0.0
2-11St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH57-68L0%0.0
2-13Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA70-72W100%0.0
2-18LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH74-67W100%0.0
2-20St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH72-82L0%0.0
2-25Sacred Heart (258.0)NECA63-73W100%0.0
2-27Wagner (185.0)NECA62-54L0%0.0
3-2Wagner (185.0)NECA59-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC26.3826.3834.6734.67-8.09-8.09
WagnerNEC5.615.6164.2964.291.601.60
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.174.1758.6258.620.720.72
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.164.1638.7138.71-0.94-0.94
LIU BrooklynNEC4.124.1255.1755.170.430.43
St. Francis PANEC4.094.0937.0437.04-1.06-1.06
St. Francis NYNEC4.044.0441.3841.38-0.70-0.70
Sacred HeartNEC4.044.0439.2939.29-0.87-0.87
Central ConnecticutNEC4.024.0211.1111.11-3.13-3.13
BryantNEC3.993.9925.0025.00-2.00-2.00
LehighPat1.741.7453.3353.330.120.12
BucknellPat1.691.6953.5753.570.120.12
ColumbiaIvy1.671.6764.2964.290.480.48
PennIvy1.671.6734.6234.62-0.51-0.51
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.671.6723.5323.53-0.88-0.88
OaklandHorz1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
New Mexico St.WAC1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
DuquesneA101.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Air ForceMWC1.641.6437.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Tennessee TechOVC1.641.6459.2659.260.300.30
Youngstown St.Horz1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
GeorgiaSEC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
CincinnatiAmer1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
AmericanPat0.330.3338.7138.71-0.08-0.08
YaleIvy0.290.2977.7877.780.160.16
LafayettePat0.290.2920.0020.00-0.17-0.17
ArmyPat0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.230.2335.7135.71-0.07-0.07
BrownIvy0.220.2225.9325.93-0.10-0.10
DartmouthIvy0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.210.2142.4242.42-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Loyola MDPat0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
PrincetonIvy0.190.1977.7877.780.110.11
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
FordhamA100.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
MaineAE0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.180.1870.5970.590.070.07
HarvardIvy0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
HartfordAE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
NJITASun0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
George MasonA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
DetroitHorz0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
St. John'sBE0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
CornellIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
La SalleA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.073.453.45-0.07-0.07
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0235.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01