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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:171.0
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:222
Current SOS:222
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:208
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-14171.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Lafayette (122.0)PatH50-77L0%0.0
11-16North Carolina (11.0)ACCA103-59L0%0.0
11-19Bradley (288.0)MVCA61-68W100%0.0
11-22Georgetown (25.0)BEA80-66L0%0.0
11-26Chattanooga (112.0)SCA61-46L0%0.0
11-27Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBN54-71W100%0.0
12-2Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH81-89L0%0.0
12-7Buffalo (28.0)MACH59-74L0%0.0
12-13Duquesne (222.0)A10H75-59W100%0.0
12-17Toledo (79.0)MACA83-57L0%0.0
12-22Delaware (253.0)CAAH84-81W100%0.0
12-30Clemson (106.0)ACCA64-57L0%0.0
1-3Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH70-45W100%0.0
1-5St. Francis PA (179.0)NECA66-59L0%0.0
1-8Wagner (294.0)NECA73-77W100%0.0
1-10Central Connecticut (342.0)NECA60-72W100%0.0
1-16St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH63-68L0%0.0
1-18Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH85-65W100%0.0
1-22Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA59-63W100%0.0
1-24St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA65-67W100%0.0
1-29Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH87-65W100%0.0
1-31Bryant (189.0)NECH68-71L0%0.0
2-5LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECA72-65L0%0.0
2-7Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA62-76W100%0.0
2-12LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH62-63L0%0.0
2-14Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH53-52W100%0.0
2-19Sacred Heart (242.0)NECA80-76L0%0.0
2-21Bryant (189.0)NECA70-76W100%0.0
2-26Wagner (294.0)NECH91-59W100%0.0
2-28St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH71-70W100%0.0
3-4Wagner (294.0)NECH91-68W100%0.0
3-7Bryant (189.0)NECH66-53W100%0.0
3-10St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA63-66W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC26.5626.5657.9657.964.234.23
St. Francis NYNEC5.585.5870.0070.002.232.23
BryantNEC5.505.5053.5753.570.390.39
WagnerNEC5.465.4634.6234.62-1.68-1.68
St. Francis PANEC4.124.1250.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC4.084.0844.8344.83-0.42-0.42
LIU BrooklynNEC4.054.0535.7135.71-1.16-1.16
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.034.0353.5753.570.290.29
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.024.0226.9226.92-1.86-1.86
Central ConnecticutNEC3.983.9817.2417.24-2.61-2.61
LafayettePat1.701.7060.0060.000.340.34
GeorgetownBE1.581.5866.6766.670.530.53
DelawareCAA1.571.5734.4834.48-0.49-0.49
DuquesneA101.571.5737.9337.93-0.38-0.38
North CarolinaACC1.541.5467.6567.650.540.54
ToledoMAC1.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
BuffaloMAC1.541.5470.9770.970.650.65
ClemsonACC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC1.521.5225.8125.81-0.73-0.73
ChattanoogaSC1.521.5265.5265.520.470.47
Louisiana MonroeSB1.521.5260.7160.710.320.32
Youngstown St.Horz1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
NJITind0.270.2756.0056.000.030.03
RutgersB100.250.2531.2531.25-0.09-0.09
HofstraCAA0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
New HampshireAE0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
ArmyPat0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.200.2044.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.200.2085.2985.290.140.14
MonmouthMAAC0.200.2054.5554.550.020.02
AkronMAC0.190.1958.8258.820.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1971.4371.430.080.08
TowsonCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
BrownIvy0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
VermontAE0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
LehighPat0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
BucknellPat0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
YaleIvy0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
PittsburghACC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
MarylandB100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
RiderMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
ButlerBE0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
PennIvy0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.070.07
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0774.0774.070.040.04
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00