Robert Morris

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	196.0
Current RPI:	196
Expected SOS:	242
Current SOS:	242
Current Record:	16-17
Expected Record:	16-17
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-6
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	134
Expected OOC SOS:	144

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-17	196.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	A	95-64	L	0%
11-13	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	75-61	L	0%
11-15	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	65-53	L	0%
11-19	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	59-66	W	100%
11-24	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	N	75-53	W	100%
11-25	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	64-78	W	100%
11-29	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	74-81	W	100%
12-2	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	76-74	L	0%
12-6	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	78-75	W	100%
12-10	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	74-60	W	100%
12-16	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	86-70	L	0%
12-19	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	A	81-69	L	0%
12-22	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	62-76	L	0%
12-29	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	54-68	W	100%
12-31	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	57-71	W	100%
1-4	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	80-79	W	100%
1-6	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	88-79	W	100%
1-11	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	80-89	L	0%
1-13	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	75-81	W	100%
1-18	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	60-74	W	100%
1-20	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	62-49	L	0%
1-26	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	64-56	W	100%
1-28	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	64-77	L	0%
2-1	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	42-67	L	0%
2-3	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	67-73	L	0%
2-8	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	77-65	L	0%
2-10	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	82-96	W	100%
2-15	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	83-60	W	100%
2-17	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	58-65	L	0%
2-22	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	72-53	L	0%
2-24	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	80-60	L	0%
2-28	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	56-60	W	100%
3-3	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	75-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Robert Morris	NEC	26.47	26.47	53.42	53.42	1.81	1.81
Wagner	NEC	5.52	5.52	66.67	66.67	1.84	1.84
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	5.40	5.40	51.85	51.85	0.20	0.20
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	4.12	4.12	54.84	54.84	0.40	0.40
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.03	4.03	37.04	37.04	-1.05	-1.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.02	4.02	43.33	43.33	-0.54	-0.54
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.00	4.00	37.04	37.04	-1.04	-1.04
Bryant	NEC	3.99	3.99	10.34	10.34	-3.16	-3.16
St. Francis PA	NEC	3.98	3.98	53.85	53.85	0.31	0.31
Sacred Heart	NEC	3.93	3.93	32.14	32.14	-1.41	-1.41
Rider	MAAC	1.69	1.69	73.33	73.33	0.79	0.79
Canisius	MAAC	1.66	1.66	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Siena	MAAC	1.64	1.64	22.58	22.58	-0.90	-0.90
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.59	1.59	64.52	64.52	0.46	0.46
Little Rock	SB	1.59	1.59	20.69	20.69	-0.93	-0.93
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.59	1.59	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
San Diego	WCC	1.59	1.59	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Duquesne	A10	1.57	1.57	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.56	1.56	64.52	64.52	0.45	0.45
Drexel	CAA	1.54	1.54	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
Buffalo	MAC	1.54	1.54	75.00	75.00	0.77	0.77
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.54	1.54	20.69	20.69	-0.90	-0.90
Ohio St.	B10	1.52	1.52	74.19	74.19	0.73	0.73
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.37	0.37	43.75	43.75	-0.05	-0.05
Hartford	AE	0.34	0.34	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.24	0.24	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
UMass Lowell	AE	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.21	0.21	36.36	36.36	-0.06	-0.06
American	Pat	0.21	0.21	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Niagara	MAAC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.20	0.20	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.19	0.19	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.17	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.15	0.15	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	15.62	15.62	-0.10	-0.10
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.14	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Monmouth	MAAC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.12	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Albany	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.04	-0.04
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00