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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:298.6
Current RPI:312
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:305
Current Record:7-18
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-12
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18248.50.33%
12-19265.24.25%
11-20280.115.43%
10-21293.629.52%
9-22305.631.22%
8-23316.816.08%
7-24325.43.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Penn (277.2)IvyA76-75L0%0.0
11-15Cincinnati (46.2)AmerA106-44L0%0.0
11-18Bucknell (167.3)PatH76-81L0%0.0
11-22Air Force (232.0)MWCA64-52L0%0.0
11-24New Mexico St. (120.1)WACA81-71L0%0.0
11-27Tennessee Tech (98.1)OVCA85-72L0%0.0
11-28Mississippi Valley St. (323.3)SWACN67-64W100%0.0
12-2Youngstown St. (258.7)HorzA65-58L0%0.0
12-5Oakland (110.6)HorzH74-92L0%0.0
12-14Columbia (125.6)IvyA78-71L0%0.0
12-17Lehigh (211.7)PatH69-67W100%0.0
12-19Duquesne (112.8)A10A72-65L0%0.0
12-29Georgia (84.8)SECA79-67L0%0.0
1-2Sacred Heart (275.7)NECH65-69L0%0.0
1-4Wagner (190.4)NECH69-72L0%0.0
1-7LIU Brooklyn (286.2)NECA60-70W100%0.0
1-9St. Francis NY (282.9)NECA56-49L0%0.0
1-14Mount St. Mary's (232.4)NECH52-76L0%0.0
1-16Fairleigh Dickinson (222.6)NECH64-58W100%0.0
1-21Central Connecticut (350.3)NECA45-59W100%0.0
1-23Bryant (318.1)NECA54-65W100%0.0
1-28Mount St. Mary's (232.4)NECA70-49L0%0.0
1-30St. Francis PA (238.2)NECA90-78L0%0.0
2-4Central Connecticut (350.3)NECH60-65L0%0.0
2-6Bryant (318.1)NECH89-71W100%0.0
2-11St. Francis PA (238.2)NECH0-057%1.9
2-13Fairleigh Dickinson (222.6)NECA0-030%-5.7
2-18LIU Brooklyn (286.2)NECH0-058%2.3
2-20St. Francis NY (282.9)NECA0-031%-5.5
2-25Sacred Heart (275.7)NECA0-040%-2.6
2-27Wagner (190.4)NECH0-036%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC26.3526.3630.9733.07-10.03-8.93
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.624.1834.7841.74-1.40-0.69
St. Francis PANEC2.774.1647.6247.75-0.13-0.19
Central ConnecticutNEC4.614.149.5210.85-3.73-3.24
BryantNEC4.564.1227.2728.28-2.07-1.79
St. Francis NYNEC2.614.1234.7840.42-0.79-0.79
LIU BrooklynNEC2.644.1150.0050.950.000.08
Sacred HeartNEC2.604.1131.8233.88-0.95-1.33
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.604.1152.3853.220.120.26
WagnerNEC2.634.1161.9063.740.631.13
LehighPat2.221.8138.1041.25-0.53-0.32
BucknellPat2.171.7552.3856.610.100.23
ColumbiaIvy2.091.7365.0063.980.630.48
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.181.7320.8323.04-1.27-0.93
PennIvy2.091.7235.2935.23-0.61-0.51
Air ForceMWC2.131.7042.8636.25-0.30-0.47
OaklandHorz2.131.7066.6766.910.710.57
New Mexico St.WAC2.131.7063.6467.440.580.59
DuquesneA102.091.7059.0954.920.380.17
Tennessee TechOVC2.131.6966.6765.370.710.52
Youngstown St.Horz2.081.6627.2729.94-0.95-0.67
GeorgiaSEC2.041.6457.1453.710.290.12
CincinnatiAmer2.001.6170.8370.590.830.66
LafayettePat0.280.3121.7423.00-0.16-0.17
AmericanPat0.400.3130.4331.91-0.16-0.11
YaleIvy0.360.3173.6874.680.170.15
ArmyPat0.310.2554.1754.580.030.02
BrownIvy0.270.2231.5831.07-0.10-0.09
DartmouthIvy0.230.2231.5831.75-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.220.2234.7835.65-0.07-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.260.2234.7837.17-0.08-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.310.2220.8324.09-0.18-0.11
PrincetonIvy0.150.2072.2274.700.070.10
FordhamA100.180.2055.0052.190.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.180.1739.1338.31-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1754.1754.140.020.01
HarvardIvy0.190.1735.0038.50-0.06-0.04
MaineAE0.180.1733.3333.13-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.170.1625.0026.75-0.09-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1673.9172.480.080.07
NavyPat0.150.1562.5062.370.040.04
TempleAmer0.180.1463.6459.810.050.03
NJITASun0.130.1454.1755.280.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1359.0959.630.020.03
CornellIvy0.100.1242.1140.21-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1254.1755.600.010.01
ColgatePat0.090.1243.4844.80-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.140.1133.3333.68-0.05-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1158.3360.730.020.02
RutgersB100.130.1121.7420.37-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.090.1165.2259.770.030.02
AlbanyAE0.090.1176.0076.310.050.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.1140.9143.29-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.090.1125.0023.40-0.04-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1142.8642.05-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.130.1187.5083.700.090.07
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1129.1726.74-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.130.1164.0062.060.040.03
WashingtonP120.180.1165.2261.100.050.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1121.7422.74-0.07-0.06
DetroitHorz0.130.1147.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.1154.5556.020.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.115.007.21-0.08-0.09
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1133.3335.06-0.04-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1181.8283.040.080.07
Wright St.Horz0.080.1156.5257.010.010.02
Saint LouisA100.130.1136.3633.54-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.109.0917.13-0.10-0.07
VillanovaBE0.100.0987.5086.910.080.06
DelawareCAA0.090.0921.7423.34-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.090.0965.2260.590.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.1733.74-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0970.8367.790.040.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0973.9169.970.040.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0882.6178.910.070.05
WyomingMWC0.130.0843.4842.49-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.084.357.72-0.08-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0819.0525.89-0.05-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0824.0024.55-0.05-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.0882.6181.120.080.05
SeattleWAC0.080.0847.6244.99-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.130.0864.0064.140.040.02
MassachusettsA100.040.0840.9139.33-0.01-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0852.3850.420.000.00
MichiganB100.130.0869.5766.220.050.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0825.0033.22-0.04-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0850.0054.200.000.01
Ohio St.B100.130.0860.0055.500.030.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0878.2674.410.050.04
UMBCAE0.120.0824.0026.33-0.06-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0840.0040.31-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.0025.67-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0666.6766.540.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.250.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0625.0024.33-0.02-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.370.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0666.6762.650.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0650.0053.100.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0686.9686.660.070.04
Murray St.OVC0.090.0645.4549.67-0.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0666.6767.700.010.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0680.0081.160.030.04
RiderMAAC0.050.0640.0042.11-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0628.5732.73-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0614.2915.46-0.03-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0633.3334.95-0.03-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.090.0652.1751.920.000.00
La SalleA100.100.0620.0020.46-0.06-0.03
BaylorB120.090.0672.7366.400.040.02
PurdueB100.090.0680.0077.930.050.03
Stony BrookAE0.090.0681.8282.630.060.04
Penn St.B100.090.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.040.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0666.6766.320.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0661.9059.540.010.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0665.2264.220.010.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0652.9452.080.000.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0660.8758.300.020.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.930.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0634.7830.33-0.03-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0655.0054.530.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0636.3636.15-0.01-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0645.0049.25-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0625.0022.73-0.05-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.3679.110.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0650.0055.190.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0647.6249.40-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.43-0.01-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0583.3378.470.060.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0552.1751.510.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0550.0045.840.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0572.0070.540.040.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0560.8762.040.020.01
DavidsonA100.090.0560.0057.940.020.01
DaytonA100.090.0586.9682.300.060.03
DukeACC0.080.0575.0071.800.040.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0556.0052.830.010.00
LibertyBSth0.040.0534.7836.50-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0579.1776.070.020.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0557.1453.990.010.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0565.2267.130.010.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0575.0070.990.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.040.0571.4368.940.020.02
VCUA100.080.0573.9173.970.040.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0543.4841.96-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0552.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.080.0554.1754.060.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0578.2676.810.050.03
HoustonAmer0.040.0569.5766.580.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0570.8369.490.030.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0560.8760.820.020.01
SMUAmer0.040.0590.9186.110.030.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0520.0019.68-0.05-0.03
TulsaAmer0.040.0565.2261.470.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0554.1751.880.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0536.8442.89-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0528.5733.36-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0515.0018.09-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.040.0561.9065.300.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.14-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.54-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.0912.24-0.05-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0313.6418.15-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.420.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.54-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.550.030.02
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.30-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.09-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.77-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.19-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.31-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0350.0049.790.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0345.4551.34-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0339.1341.10-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.530.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0372.7371.650.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.46-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0359.0953.250.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.590.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.310.010.00
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.790.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0347.6252.05-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.460.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.92-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.260.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0343.4843.78-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.040.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.110.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2677.860.030.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.76-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0356.5259.860.000.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.410.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0327.7834.43-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.040.0356.5257.280.010.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.630.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0358.3357.170.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0354.5554.470.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0352.1754.170.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.24-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0335.0034.80-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.040.0369.5767.150.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0340.0043.44-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0373.9170.050.020.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.600.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0343.4850.65-0.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0314.2924.89-0.03-0.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0333.3332.36-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.040.0350.0044.860.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.040.0387.5081.810.030.02
BYUWCC0.040.0366.6769.490.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0375.0076.250.020.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0384.2181.660.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0333.3333.04-0.01-0.01