Robert Morris

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	111.2
Current RPI:	107
Expected SOS:	246
Current SOS:	202
Current Record:	17-8
Expected Record:	22-9
Current Conf Record:	8-4
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	20.83%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-2
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	37
Expected OOC SOS:	58

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-8	98.4	20.86%
22-9	108.0	40.98%
21-10	118.3	28.48%
20-11	130.2	8.42%
19-12	143.1	1.18%
18-13	159.1	0.07%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	83-57	W	100%	0.0
11-15	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	52-69	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	66-60	L	0%	0.0
11-22	James Madison (251.6)	CAA	A	77-82	W	100%	0.0
11-25	La Salle (69.1)	A10	A	44-51	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Pittsburgh (74.5)	BE	A	81-71	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	H	66-54	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	H	69-51	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Duquesne (79.5)	A10	A	60-64	W	100%	0.0
12-8	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	H	58-62	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	H	72-64	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	H	64-54	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	A	56-59	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	A	64-47	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	A	67-70	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	A	53-84	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	68-53	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	H	76-78	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	H	70-67	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	A	55-67	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	A	73-81	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	H	75-66	W	100%	0.0
1-28	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	H	68-81	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	A	80-69	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	A	62-67	W	100%	0.0
2-8	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	A	0-0		83%	10.4
2-11	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	0-0		94%	17.1
2-16	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	H	0-0		80%	9.2
2-18	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	H	0-0		97%	20.3
2-23	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	A	0-0		51%	0.2
2-25	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	A	0-0		66%	4.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Robert Morris	NEC	26.25	26.22	71.65	73.38	11.37	12.26
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.77	4.05	21.74	23.59	-0.44	-2.14
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.56	3.97	45.83	47.88	-0.21	-0.17
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.54	3.96	42.86	44.60	-0.36	-0.43
Bryant	NEC	2.52	3.94	8.70	11.52	-2.08	-3.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.50	3.94	54.55	55.86	0.23	0.46
Monmouth	NEC	4.38	3.91	30.43	30.90	-1.72	-1.50
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.39	3.91	9.52	13.03	-3.55	-2.89
Wagner	NEC	2.60	2.43	81.82	84.02	1.65	1.65
Long Island	NEC	2.55	2.40	73.91	73.50	1.22	1.13
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.51	2.38	27.27	29.63	-1.14	-0.97
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.51	2.38	54.55	54.37	0.23	0.21
Rider	MAAC	2.34	1.82	39.13	39.80	-0.51	-0.37
La Salle	A10	2.26	1.80	73.91	71.11	1.08	0.76
Pittsburgh	BE	2.22	1.80	59.09	56.76	0.40	0.24
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.21	1.75	22.73	25.43	-1.21	-0.86
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.21	1.74	52.38	55.40	0.11	0.19
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.09	1.72	52.63	53.51	0.11	0.12
James Madison	CAA	2.17	1.72	41.67	41.52	-0.36	-0.29
Duquesne	A10	2.13	1.69	61.90	58.36	0.51	0.28
Hampton	MEAC	2.08	1.69	38.10	39.81	-0.50	-0.34
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.10	1.67	80.95	79.76	1.30	1.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.05	1.64	56.52	56.71	0.27	0.22
Memphis	CUSA	2.00	1.61	68.18	70.56	0.73	0.66
Ohio	MAC	2.00	1.61	85.71	79.86	1.43	0.96
Lafayette	Pat	0.42	0.35	43.48	42.95	-0.06	-0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.30	0.30	27.27	23.80	-0.13	-0.15
Lehigh	Pat	0.26	0.28	73.91	74.91	0.12	0.14
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.27	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.22	0.27	72.22	63.19	0.10	0.07
Hartford	AE	0.21	0.25	17.39	20.97	-0.14	-0.14
Albany	AE	0.30	0.22	60.00	60.42	0.06	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.19	73.91	68.58	0.08	0.07
American	Pat	0.13	0.17	65.22	63.79	0.04	0.05
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	40.91	41.72	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.16	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.25	0.16	32.00	35.39	-0.09	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.16	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.22	0.16	71.43	69.05	0.09	0.06
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.16	79.17	78.10	0.02	0.09
Louisville	BE	0.22	0.16	78.26	72.66	0.12	0.07
Rutgers	BE	0.21	0.16	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.14	0.14	65.22	63.61	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	35.00	39.38	-0.04	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.14	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.14	30.43	29.50	-0.03	-0.06
Akron	MAC	0.19	0.14	68.18	67.91	0.07	0.05
Vermont	AE	0.17	0.14	60.00	62.49	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.14	9.52	13.19	-0.14	-0.10
Providence	BE	0.17	0.14	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.13	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.17	0.13	66.67	68.05	0.06	0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.13	0.13	77.27	73.45	0.07	0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.21	0.13	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.13	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	79.17	80.10	0.07	0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.21	0.13	76.00	72.50	0.11	0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.13	17.39	19.81	-0.11	-0.08
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.13	68.00	69.07	0.06	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.17	0.13	34.78	33.43	-0.05	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.13	0.13	65.22	62.65	0.04	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.17	0.13	45.45	46.08	-0.02	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.11	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.15	0.11	30.00	30.06	-0.06	-0.05
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.11	19.05	21.29	-0.09	-0.07
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.15	0.11	56.52	57.72	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.11	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.11	68.42	66.45	0.05	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.17	0.11	33.33	38.38	-0.06	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.13	0.11	13.64	16.35	-0.10	-0.07
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.11	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.11	68.18	69.68	0.05	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.18	0.11	18.18	22.22	-0.11	-0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.17	0.11	20.83	20.60	-0.10	-0.06
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.11	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.11	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.09	0.11	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.11	30.43	26.44	-0.03	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.04	0.11	14.29	17.17	-0.03	-0.07
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.10	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.10	90.48	87.91	0.06	0.08
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.08	38.10	40.81	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.08	37.50	38.33	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.13	0.08	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.04	0.08	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.08	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.08	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.04	0.08	80.00	78.06	0.02	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.08	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.08	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.04	0.08	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.08	25.00	37.58	-0.07	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.08	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.08	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.08	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.12	0.08	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.08	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.13	0.08	12.50	13.44	-0.09	-0.06
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.08	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.13	0.08	80.95	77.38	0.08	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.08	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.04	0.08	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.01	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.04	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.04	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.04	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.03	-0.05
North Texas	SB	0.04	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.05	61.90	67.23	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.05	69.57	61.31	0.03	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.04	0.05	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.05	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.04	0.05	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.05	79.17	75.98	0.05	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.05	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.04	0.05	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.04	0.05	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.04	0.05	0.00	5.37	-0.04	-0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	10.00	14.93	-0.07	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.05	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.05	66.67	69.69	0.01	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.04	0.05	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.04	0.05	35.00	38.58	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.05	86.96	83.16	0.06	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.05	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.05	85.71	82.18	0.06	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.04	0.05	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.05	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.04	0.05	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.04	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.04	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.04	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.04	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.04	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.04	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.04	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.02	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.04	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.03	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.04	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.04	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.04	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.04	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.04	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.04	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.04	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.00	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.00	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.00	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.04	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.04	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.03	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.04	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.02	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.02	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.04	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.03	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.04	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.04	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.04	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.04	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.04	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.04	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.04	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.04	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.04	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.04	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.04	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.03	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.04	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00