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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:119.8
Current RPI:174
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:300
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:44



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-525.20.05%
21-632.20.29%
20-743.60.89%
19-855.32.61%
18-967.96.52%
17-1082.111.27%
16-1197.916.45%
15-12114.318.22%
14-13132.317.04%
13-14150.212.85%
12-15169.87.69%
11-16191.33.86%
10-17213.51.54%
9-18232.50.56%
8-19256.00.11%
7-20277.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida (52.3)SECA68-45L0%0.0
11-18Howard (267.3)MEACH56-49W100%0.0
11-22Rice (273.6)CUSAA65-69W100%0.0
11-25Western Illinois (313.7)SumH83-49W100%0.0
11-29Wofford (55.7)SCH0-041%-2.6
12-3Richmond (63.1)A10A0-018%-11.0
12-6High Point (152.5)BSthA0-049%-0.3
12-22Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAA0-023%-9.0
12-30North Carolina (10.0)ACCA0-04%-21.5
1-3College of Charleston (141.9)CAAH0-060%2.9
1-5Drexel (225.6)CAAA0-054%1.1
1-8Elon (244.4)CAAA0-058%2.5
1-10James Madison (223.3)CAAH0-077%9.0
1-14UNC Wilmington (170.3)CAAH0-072%6.8
1-17Towson (155.1)CAAA0-044%-1.7
1-21Delaware (312.4)CAAA0-075%8.2
1-24Northeastern (83.1)CAAH0-050%0.1
1-28Hofstra (97.2)CAAH0-051%0.3
1-31James Madison (223.3)CAAA0-056%1.8
2-5College of Charleston (141.9)CAAA0-036%-4.2
2-7UNC Wilmington (170.3)CAAA0-049%-0.3
2-11Elon (244.4)CAAH0-079%9.7
2-14Delaware (312.4)CAAH0-090%15.4
2-18Northeastern (83.1)CAAA0-028%-7.1
2-22Hofstra (97.2)CAAA0-028%-6.8
2-25Towson (155.1)CAAH0-067%5.4
2-28Drexel (225.6)CAAH0-076%8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA30.9426.4281.2558.1719.344.32
James MadisonCAA0.004.7780.0047.810.00-0.21
NortheasternCAA0.004.7480.0067.530.001.66
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.7266.6747.660.00-0.22
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.7140.0053.64-0.000.34
HofstraCAA0.004.7160.0069.420.001.83
TowsonCAA0.004.7080.0058.860.000.83
DelawareCAA0.004.700.0019.70-0.00-2.85
ElonCAA0.004.7040.0039.83-0.00-0.96
DrexelCAA0.004.6920.0036.66-0.00-1.25
RichmondA100.002.0750.0063.370.000.55
Old DominionCUSA0.002.0280.0074.800.001.00
High PointBSth0.001.9475.0057.180.000.28
RiceCUSA12.501.9133.3329.78-4.17-0.77
HowardMEAC12.501.8833.3346.71-4.17-0.12
FloridaSEC12.501.8550.0061.110.000.41
North CarolinaACC0.001.8580.0073.320.000.86
Western IllinoisSum12.501.8533.3327.84-4.17-0.82
WoffordSC0.001.8580.0077.760.001.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.260.0028.00-0.00-0.11
CharlotteCUSA0.000.2660.0067.380.000.09
CampbellBSth0.000.250.0035.96-0.00-0.07
Miami FLACC2.810.22100.0078.882.810.13
La SalleA100.000.22100.0056.910.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.2266.6764.030.000.06
RadfordBSth1.560.1925.0046.52-0.78-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.190.0028.02-0.00-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1925.0047.85-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.18100.0064.840.000.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1620.0029.36-0.00-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1640.0058.41-0.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1616.6739.60-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.16100.0083.320.000.10
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1625.0035.86-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.1560.0056.260.000.02
George MasonA100.000.1520.0022.17-0.00-0.08
IUPUISum0.000.1440.0030.22-0.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1375.0039.180.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1366.6751.730.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.130.0039.39-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.1325.0035.97-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA1.250.1320.0037.96-0.75-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0078.390.000.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1333.3338.66-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.1360.0050.480.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0074.590.000.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1233.3334.34-0.00-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.1225.0027.48-0.00-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.1275.0052.070.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.120.0028.25-0.00-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0030.72-0.00-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.1240.0038.97-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.1220.0030.56-0.00-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1275.0068.660.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.110.0038.79-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.10100.0069.210.000.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1033.3330.52-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1066.6753.030.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.0023.49-0.00-0.05
MercerSC1.560.1050.0054.380.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.1042.8641.73-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1020.0038.45-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1080.0079.440.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.1050.0045.460.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1040.0045.07-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1014.2930.86-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1025.0039.20-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1050.0036.580.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.1080.0071.340.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0031.24-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE1.560.090.0027.48-1.56-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0940.0036.39-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0933.3347.83-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0022.33-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.81-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0980.0058.550.000.02
GeorgetownBE1.250.0980.0063.370.750.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0089.470.000.07
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0940.0032.81-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0068.860.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0966.6751.440.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0069.780.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.17-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0980.0073.390.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0073.330.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0983.3366.830.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0750.0060.380.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6762.480.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0050.720.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0047.410.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0038.51-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3354.85-0.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0733.3363.17-0.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0725.0053.73-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3353.65-0.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0733.3337.71-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0780.0072.400.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6750.170.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0775.0064.570.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0775.0060.510.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0716.6745.35-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0750.0055.020.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0766.6752.280.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0783.3348.340.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0750.0029.750.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0760.0050.620.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0028.59-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0067.79-0.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0069.590.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0054.85-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6758.150.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3329.78-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0034.06-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0640.0026.71-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0640.0051.36-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0683.3338.760.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3335.99-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0075.980.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0640.0047.99-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0053.990.000.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.23-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6754.980.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0675.0044.850.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0053.040.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0052.540.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0053.730.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0028.400.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.51-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0053.47-0.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0039.05-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0065.610.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.160.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0675.0069.240.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.130.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.38-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0044.60-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0049.08-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0033.76-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.260.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0625.0037.88-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0660.0068.620.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0056.110.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0044.93-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0048.100.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0460.0066.680.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.040.0063.05-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0425.0049.53-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0433.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.560.0420.0031.46-0.94-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0433.3360.46-0.000.01
PacificWCC1.560.0433.3332.18-0.52-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.560.0420.0035.95-0.94-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0466.6760.700.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.040.0023.72-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0425.0036.27-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P121.560.0450.0042.750.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.560.040.0040.56-1.56-0.01
TexasB120.000.04100.0079.050.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6732.00-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4356.020.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0320.0030.12-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.19-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.020.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.690.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.0037.710.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.03-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0071.410.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.890.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0068.290.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.460.000.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.220.000.01
KansasB120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB1.250.0325.0043.61-0.62-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.110.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0052.250.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.950.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0366.6746.480.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0041.21-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0366.6758.390.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0035.980.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.930.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.300.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.870.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6756.430.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.860.00-0.00