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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:303.9
Current RPI:308
Expected SOS:161
Current SOS:191
Current Record:3-21
Expected Record:4-26
Current Conf Record:2-11
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-8
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:325
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22270.00.06%
7-23278.60.55%
6-24289.45.19%
5-25297.420.81%
4-26304.142.33%
3-27311.031.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-7St. John's (153.5)BEA74-59L0%0.0
11-12Hampton (310.6)MEACA73-58L0%0.0
11-14Liberty (310.4)BSthH72-75L0%0.0
11-18Lehigh (110.6)PatN57-82L0%0.0
11-19Eastern Kentucky (207.5)OVCN44-63L0%0.0
11-20Liberty (310.4)BSthA64-65W100%0.0
11-26Howard (301.0)MEACA67-58L0%0.0
11-30Richmond (135.9)A10H61-92L0%0.0
12-3Georgia St. (123.3)CAAA66-34L0%0.0
12-18Missouri (11.3)B12A94-56L0%0.0
12-21Iona (45.3)MAACH65-83L0%0.0
12-29Miami OH (209.3)MACA73-69L0%0.0
1-2George Mason (95.3)CAAA70-56L0%0.0
1-4James Madison (250.9)CAAH68-61W100%0.0
1-7Delaware (181.6)CAAH64-75L0%0.0
1-11Towson (304.6)CAAA49-66W100%0.0
1-14Northeastern (162.8)CAAA64-50L0%0.0
1-19Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)CAAA69-68L0%0.0
1-21NC Wilmington (206.4)CAAH66-68L0%0.0
1-23Drexel (79.6)CAAH48-64L0%0.0
1-26James Madison (250.9)CAAA59-47L0%0.0
1-28Old Dominion (124.4)CAAA68-44L0%0.0
2-1Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)CAAH78-87L0%0.0
2-4NC Wilmington (206.4)CAAA81-68L0%0.0
2-8Old Dominion (124.4)CAAH0-014%-11.7
2-11Northeastern (162.8)CAAH0-026%-6.9
2-14Drexel (79.6)CAAA0-02%-22.3
2-18Virginia Military Inst (265.0)BSthA0-024%-7.5
2-22Hofstra (237.3)CAAH0-028%-6.3
2-25Georgia St. (123.3)CAAH0-08%-15.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA26.4126.2915.1814.68-18.39-18.57
Old DominionCAA2.864.1758.3355.910.480.49
Georgia St.CAA2.874.1465.2267.830.871.48
NC WilmingtonCAA4.774.0833.3331.39-1.59-1.52
Virginia CommonwealthCAA4.694.0578.2676.572.652.15
James MadisonCAA4.694.0539.1339.49-1.02-0.85
NortheasternCAA2.694.0545.4545.72-0.24-0.35
DrexelCAA2.654.0278.2676.551.502.14
LibertyBSth4.483.6225.0025.58-2.24-1.77
DelawareCAA2.732.5045.4548.90-0.25-0.05
HofstraCAA0.812.5032.0034.18-0.29-0.79
TowsonCAA2.642.474.175.44-2.42-2.20
George MasonCAA2.682.4475.0071.561.341.05
HamptonMEAC2.401.9031.8235.01-0.87-0.57
RichmondA102.391.8947.8346.76-0.10-0.12
Virginia Military InstBSth0.141.8445.0042.93-0.01-0.26
HowardMEAC2.261.8018.1822.88-1.44-0.98
LehighPat2.271.7872.7374.051.030.86
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.221.7547.8350.03-0.100.00
St. John'sBE2.171.7540.9138.25-0.40-0.41
IonaMAAC2.131.7278.2679.451.201.01
MissouriB122.121.7291.3087.511.761.29
Miami OHMAC2.081.6726.3231.74-0.99-0.61
WinthropBSth0.280.2734.7834.75-0.08-0.08
RadfordBSth0.280.248.7013.12-0.23-0.18
PresbyterianBSth0.140.2140.9143.65-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.190.2157.6958.270.030.03
RiderMAAC0.220.1940.0039.70-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.220.1970.8368.830.090.07
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1968.0069.080.060.07
Rhode IslandA100.210.1920.8320.61-0.12-0.11
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.1855.0060.350.010.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.1868.4268.620.030.07
NC AshevilleBSth0.190.1868.1867.720.070.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1738.8941.49-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1769.5770.420.070.07
VermontAE0.170.1761.5463.840.040.05
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1656.5254.880.020.02
George WashingtonA100.210.1634.7832.05-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1423.8133.67-0.07-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1442.1149.86-0.03-0.00
AmericanPat0.180.1465.2263.790.050.04
Texas A&MB120.180.1450.0045.200.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1421.7422.75-0.10-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1436.0040.36-0.05-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1462.5062.420.030.03
South FloridaBE0.170.1354.5548.540.02-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.1234.7838.74-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.140.1231.8232.81-0.05-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.1219.0519.39-0.06-0.07
DaytonA100.140.1160.8760.960.030.03
AkronMAC0.140.1168.1867.980.050.04
Kent St.MAC0.140.1171.4369.050.060.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1114.2916.80-0.10-0.08
Boston UniversityAE0.090.1150.0053.830.000.01
BradleyMVC0.090.1124.0024.86-0.05-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.090.1147.3752.90-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.130.1173.9175.030.060.06
MassachusettsA100.130.1173.9168.650.060.04
KansasB120.130.1178.2678.420.070.06
FordhamA100.180.1140.9134.45-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.090.110.004.04-0.09-0.10
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1117.3919.76-0.11-0.07
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.1136.3639.73-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.130.1181.8276.800.080.06
Long IslandNEC0.090.1170.8371.060.040.05
NC GreensboroSC0.170.1134.7833.38-0.05-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.040.1162.5061.430.010.02
Western KentuckySB0.170.1134.7834.46-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0947.6248.81-0.00-0.00
Longwoodind0.090.0928.5725.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0956.5253.060.010.01
ToledoMAC0.140.0938.1040.84-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0942.1145.89-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.090.0943.4842.98-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0913.0414.47-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.080.099.5211.47-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.0947.6247.19-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.130.0959.0959.780.020.02
MarylandACC0.130.0960.8753.440.030.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0926.3229.64-0.04-0.03
ColgatePat0.050.0830.4329.49-0.02-0.03
DavidsonSC0.130.0877.2777.370.070.05
NavyPat0.090.089.5213.17-0.07-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.130.0847.8343.63-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0842.8643.11-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.090.0820.8323.73-0.05-0.04
CincinnatiBE0.100.0869.5765.370.040.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0880.9577.450.060.05
Kansas St.B120.090.0873.9168.410.040.03
Oregon St.P120.090.0863.6463.170.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0856.5255.970.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.090.0854.5557.710.010.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0870.8366.500.040.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.130.0854.5556.800.010.01
VillanovaBE0.130.0845.8345.52-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0882.6181.410.000.05
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0833.3337.11-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0843.4845.03-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.0868.0070.060.050.03
RutgersBE0.090.0850.0046.870.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0847.8348.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0896.0093.530.080.07
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.2263.650.030.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0687.5085.410.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0668.4266.510.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0681.8277.180.030.03
PittsburghBE0.000.0662.5059.520.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0636.3640.96-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0622.7324.64-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0654.5558.390.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0640.9142.97-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0640.9141.68-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0632.0035.39-0.03-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0636.8441.47-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0633.3334.54-0.01-0.02
FurmanSC0.090.0645.4547.20-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.090.0640.9142.03-0.02-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0662.5062.070.020.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0642.8643.52-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0645.4547.09-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0670.8364.530.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0634.7832.10-0.01-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0668.1868.980.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0660.8759.850.010.01
BelmontASun0.090.0670.8373.740.040.03
XavierA100.050.0665.2263.690.020.02
TempleA100.090.0677.2775.070.050.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0682.6184.580.030.04
Loyola MDMAAC0.040.0678.2674.290.020.03
MaristMAAC0.040.0634.7833.44-0.01-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0644.4445.20-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.040.0621.7421.75-0.02-0.03
SamfordSC0.040.0633.3335.20-0.01-0.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.000.0657.1460.720.000.01
WashingtonP120.040.0669.5766.590.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0544.0045.88-0.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.080.0569.5770.160.030.02
BaylorB120.040.0590.9183.900.040.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.040.0571.4366.550.020.02
CharlotteA100.040.0550.0049.460.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0547.8342.19-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0559.0956.380.020.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.040.0544.4441.65-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0550.0052.040.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0539.1342.16-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0569.5761.840.030.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0554.1757.110.000.01
Notre DameBE0.040.0565.2262.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.090.0556.5253.940.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0547.8342.67-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0530.4329.57-0.03-0.02
TexasB120.090.0562.5062.200.020.01
Texas TechB120.040.0530.4325.84-0.02-0.03
UABCUSA0.080.0540.9139.81-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.040.0554.5556.780.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0347.3742.13-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.420.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0328.5734.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0347.8347.08-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0375.0075.730.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0331.8234.86-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.035.267.29-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.050.0328.5730.17-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.880.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.47-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0369.5765.180.020.01
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.84-0.04-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.14-0.04-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.000.0333.3332.18-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0334.7838.43-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0377.2773.500.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0378.2672.280.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.03100.0094.580.040.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.140.010.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.034.359.74-0.04-0.02
DenverSB0.040.0370.8372.240.020.01
NevadaWAC0.000.0380.9576.420.000.01
PurdueB100.040.0362.5060.780.010.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0357.6958.540.010.00
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
BrownIvy0.040.0327.2723.78-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0375.0074.620.020.01
College of CharlestonSC0.040.0358.3359.920.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0365.2262.350.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0382.6179.930.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.038.3310.90-0.04-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0361.9067.290.000.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0379.1774.200.030.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0380.0076.670.030.01
MercerASun0.040.0372.0072.220.020.01
MichiganB100.040.0369.5766.330.020.01
MonmouthNEC0.040.0328.0028.87-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3337.75-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0355.0054.450.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0352.0048.780.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.040.0360.0059.090.010.00
St. LouisA100.000.0377.2777.700.000.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.000.040.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.60-0.03-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.050.0366.6765.980.020.01