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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:67.0
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:80
Current SOS:80
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:39



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1167.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA68-85W100%0.0
11-17Liberty (264.0)BSthA59-70W100%0.0
11-21Dayton (21.0)A10A69-66L0%0.0
11-25Hampton (155.0)MEACH86-67W100%0.0
11-28Howard (328.0)MEACA79-77L0%0.0
12-1Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH55-48W100%0.0
12-5Virginia (3.0)ACCA67-52L0%0.0
12-21High Point (158.0)BSthH78-75W100%0.0
12-29Central Michigan (156.0)MACH88-84W100%0.0
12-31Towson (150.0)CAAH69-76L0%0.0
1-2College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH78-70W100%0.0
1-7Drexel (247.0)CAAA63-72W100%0.0
1-9Northeastern (109.0)CAAH78-60W100%0.0
1-14College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA61-63W100%0.0
1-16UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA97-94L0%0.0
1-21Elon (160.0)CAAH89-67W100%0.0
1-24Hofstra (54.0)CAAA91-63L0%0.0
1-28Delaware (274.0)CAAA79-94W100%0.0
1-31James Madison (103.0)CAAH68-62W100%0.0
2-4Northeastern (109.0)CAAA77-86W100%0.0
2-6Delaware (274.0)CAAH90-64W100%0.0
2-11Hofstra (54.0)CAAH80-86L0%0.0
2-13Towson (150.0)CAAA99-82L0%0.0
2-18UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH87-69W100%0.0
2-20Drexel (247.0)CAAH69-74L0%0.0
2-25Elon (160.0)CAAA65-75W100%0.0
2-27James Madison (103.0)CAAA71-65L0%0.0
3-5James Madison (103.0)CAAN64-79W100%0.0
3-6Hofstra (54.0)CAAN70-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA26.5426.5464.1264.127.507.50
HofstraCAA6.256.2568.9768.972.372.37
James MadisonCAA6.136.1367.8667.862.192.19
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.654.6578.5778.572.662.66
DrexelCAA4.634.6317.8617.86-2.98-2.98
NortheasternCAA4.614.6156.6756.670.610.61
College of CharlestonCAA4.574.5757.1457.140.650.65
DelawareCAA4.524.5225.0025.00-2.26-2.26
ElonCAA4.524.5250.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA4.514.5157.1457.140.640.64
High PointBSth1.871.8766.6766.670.620.62
North Carolina St.ACC1.831.8350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC1.811.8131.0331.03-0.69-0.69
LibertyBSth1.791.7935.7135.71-0.51-0.51
HamptonMEAC1.781.7868.9768.970.680.68
Central MichiganMAC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC1.751.7578.1278.120.980.98
DaytonA101.721.7277.4277.420.950.95
Old DominionCUSA1.721.7264.7164.710.510.51
RadfordBSth0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.280.2836.6736.67-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.270.2764.5264.520.080.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
La SalleA100.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
MarshallCUSA0.220.2251.5251.520.010.01
Miami FLACC0.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
East CarolinaAmer0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
WinthropBSth0.180.1868.9768.970.070.07
CampbellBSth0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1716.6716.67-0.11-0.11
FIUCUSA0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
RichmondA100.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1557.6957.690.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
BradleyMVC0.140.1412.9012.90-0.10-0.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
St. BonaventureA100.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02