William & Mary

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	303.9
Current RPI:	308
Expected SOS:	161
Current SOS:	191
Current Record:	3-21
Expected Record:	4-26
Current Conf Record:	2-11
Expected Conf Record:	3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-8
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	325
Expected OOC SOS:	256

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-22	270.0	0.06%
7-23	278.6	0.55%
6-24	289.4	5.19%
5-25	297.4	20.81%
4-26	304.1	42.33%
3-27	311.0	31.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-7	St. John's (153.5)	BE	A	74-59	L	0%	0.0
11-12	Hampton (310.6)	MEAC	A	73-58	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Liberty (310.4)	BSth	H	72-75	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Lehigh (110.6)	Pat	N	57-82	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Eastern Kentucky (207.5)	OVC	N	44-63	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Liberty (310.4)	BSth	A	64-65	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Howard (301.0)	MEAC	A	67-58	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Richmond (135.9)	A10	H	61-92	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	A	66-34	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Missouri (11.3)	B12	A	94-56	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Iona (45.3)	MAAC	H	65-83	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Miami OH (209.3)	MAC	A	73-69	L	0%	0.0
1-2	George Mason (95.3)	CAA	A	70-56	L	0%	0.0
1-4	James Madison (250.9)	CAA	H	68-61	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Delaware (181.6)	CAA	H	64-75	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Towson (304.6)	CAA	A	49-66	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Northeastern (162.8)	CAA	A	64-50	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)	CAA	A	69-68	L	0%	0.0
1-21	NC Wilmington (206.4)	CAA	H	66-68	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Drexel (79.6)	CAA	H	48-64	L	0%	0.0
1-26	James Madison (250.9)	CAA	A	59-47	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Old Dominion (124.4)	CAA	A	68-44	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)	CAA	H	78-87	L	0%	0.0
2-4	NC Wilmington (206.4)	CAA	A	81-68	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Old Dominion (124.4)	CAA	H	0-0		14%	-11.7
2-11	Northeastern (162.8)	CAA	H	0-0		26%	-6.9
2-14	Drexel (79.6)	CAA	A	0-0		2%	-22.3
2-18	Virginia Military Inst (265.0)	BSth	A	0-0		24%	-7.5
2-22	Hofstra (237.3)	CAA	H	0-0		28%	-6.3
2-25	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	H	0-0		8%	-15.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
William & Mary	CAA	26.41	26.29	15.18	14.68	-18.39	-18.57
Old Dominion	CAA	2.86	4.17	58.33	55.91	0.48	0.49
Georgia St.	CAA	2.87	4.14	65.22	67.83	0.87	1.48
NC Wilmington	CAA	4.77	4.08	33.33	31.39	-1.59	-1.52
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	4.69	4.05	78.26	76.57	2.65	2.15
James Madison	CAA	4.69	4.05	39.13	39.49	-1.02	-0.85
Northeastern	CAA	2.69	4.05	45.45	45.72	-0.24	-0.35
Drexel	CAA	2.65	4.02	78.26	76.55	1.50	2.14
Liberty	BSth	4.48	3.62	25.00	25.58	-2.24	-1.77
Delaware	CAA	2.73	2.50	45.45	48.90	-0.25	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.81	2.50	32.00	34.18	-0.29	-0.79
Towson	CAA	2.64	2.47	4.17	5.44	-2.42	-2.20
George Mason	CAA	2.68	2.44	75.00	71.56	1.34	1.05
Hampton	MEAC	2.40	1.90	31.82	35.01	-0.87	-0.57
Richmond	A10	2.39	1.89	47.83	46.76	-0.10	-0.12
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.14	1.84	45.00	42.93	-0.01	-0.26
Howard	MEAC	2.26	1.80	18.18	22.88	-1.44	-0.98
Lehigh	Pat	2.27	1.78	72.73	74.05	1.03	0.86
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.22	1.75	47.83	50.03	-0.10	0.00
St. John's	BE	2.17	1.75	40.91	38.25	-0.40	-0.41
Iona	MAAC	2.13	1.72	78.26	79.45	1.20	1.01
Missouri	B12	2.12	1.72	91.30	87.51	1.76	1.29
Miami OH	MAC	2.08	1.67	26.32	31.74	-0.99	-0.61
Winthrop	BSth	0.28	0.27	34.78	34.75	-0.08	-0.08
Radford	BSth	0.28	0.24	8.70	13.12	-0.23	-0.18
Presbyterian	BSth	0.14	0.21	40.91	43.65	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.19	0.21	57.69	58.27	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.22	0.19	40.00	39.70	-0.04	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.22	0.19	70.83	68.83	0.09	0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.19	68.00	69.08	0.06	0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.21	0.19	20.83	20.61	-0.12	-0.11
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.18	55.00	60.35	0.01	0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.09	0.18	68.42	68.62	0.03	0.07
NC Asheville	BSth	0.19	0.18	68.18	67.72	0.07	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.18	0.17	38.89	41.49	-0.04	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.18	0.17	69.57	70.42	0.07	0.07
Vermont	AE	0.17	0.17	61.54	63.84	0.04	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.16	56.52	54.88	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.21	0.16	34.78	32.05	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	23.81	33.67	-0.07	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.18	0.14	42.11	49.86	-0.03	-0.00
American	Pat	0.18	0.14	65.22	63.79	0.05	0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.18	0.14	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.14	21.74	22.75	-0.10	-0.08
Niagara	MAAC	0.17	0.14	36.00	40.36	-0.05	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.14	62.50	62.42	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.17	0.13	54.55	48.54	0.02	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.12	34.78	38.74	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.12	31.82	32.81	-0.05	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.12	19.05	19.39	-0.06	-0.07
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.11	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.11	68.18	67.98	0.05	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.11	71.43	69.05	0.06	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.13	0.11	14.29	16.80	-0.10	-0.08
Boston University	AE	0.09	0.11	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.11	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.11	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.11	73.91	75.03	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.11	73.91	68.65	0.06	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.11	78.26	78.42	0.07	0.06
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.11	40.91	34.45	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.09	0.11	0.00	4.04	-0.09	-0.10
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.11	17.39	19.76	-0.11	-0.07
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.11	36.36	39.73	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.11	81.82	76.80	0.08	0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.11	70.83	71.06	0.04	0.05
NC Greensboro	SC	0.17	0.11	34.78	33.38	-0.05	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.04	0.11	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.11	34.78	34.46	-0.05	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.09	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.09	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.14	0.09	38.10	40.84	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.09	43.48	42.98	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.09	0.09	13.04	14.47	-0.06	-0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.09	9.52	11.47	-0.07	-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.14	0.09	47.62	47.19	-0.01	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.09	59.09	59.78	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.09	60.87	53.44	0.03	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	26.32	29.64	-0.04	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.08	30.43	29.49	-0.02	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.13	0.08	77.27	77.37	0.07	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.08	9.52	13.17	-0.07	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.08	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.08	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.08	20.83	23.73	-0.05	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.08	69.57	65.37	0.04	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.08	80.95	77.45	0.06	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.08	73.91	68.41	0.04	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.08	63.64	63.17	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.08	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.08	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.08	70.83	66.50	0.04	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.13	0.08	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.08	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.08	82.61	81.41	0.00	0.05
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.08	33.33	37.11	-0.03	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.08	43.48	45.03	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.08	68.00	70.06	0.05	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.08	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.08	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.08	96.00	93.53	0.08	0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.22	63.65	0.03	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.00	0.06	62.50	59.52	0.00	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.00	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.06	22.73	24.64	-0.00	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	40.91	42.97	-0.02	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	41.68	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.06	36.84	41.47	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.04	0.06	33.33	34.54	-0.01	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.09	0.06	45.45	47.20	-0.01	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.09	0.06	40.91	42.03	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.07	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.04	0.06	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.10	-0.01	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.00	0.06	68.18	68.98	0.00	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.04	0.06	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.09	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.04	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.09	0.06	77.27	75.07	0.05	0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	84.58	0.03	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.04	0.06	78.26	74.29	0.02	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.04	0.06	34.78	33.44	-0.01	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.04	0.06	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.04	0.06	21.74	21.75	-0.02	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.04	0.06	33.33	35.20	-0.01	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.06	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.01
Washington	P12	0.04	0.06	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.05	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.05	69.57	70.16	0.03	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.04	0.05	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.04	0.05	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.04	0.05	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.05	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.04	0.05	44.44	41.65	-0.00	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.05	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.05	39.13	42.16	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.05	69.57	61.84	0.03	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.05	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.04	0.05	65.22	62.67	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.05	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.04	0.05	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.05	30.43	29.57	-0.03	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.09	0.05	62.50	62.20	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.05	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.05	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.05	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.00	0.03	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	34.86	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.03	5.26	7.29	-0.00	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.04	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.14	-0.04	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	33.33	32.18	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	34.78	38.43	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.50	0.02	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	100.00	94.58	0.04	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.14	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.04	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.04	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.04	0.03	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.04	0.03	62.50	60.78	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.04	0.03	57.69	58.54	0.01	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.04	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.02	-0.01
California	P12	0.04	0.03	75.00	74.62	0.02	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.04	0.03	58.33	59.92	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.03	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.04	0.03	8.33	10.90	-0.04	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.04	0.03	72.00	72.22	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.03	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.04	0.03	28.00	28.87	-0.02	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.75	-0.00	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.04	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.00	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.04	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.60	-0.03	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.01