William & Mary

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	271.0
Current RPI:	271
Expected SOS:	309
Current SOS:	309
Current Record:	12-17
Expected Record:	12-17
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	219
Expected OOC SOS:	322

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-17	271.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	H	69-51	W	100%
11-12	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	A	59-71	W	100%
11-17	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	61-83	W	100%
11-21	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	H	59-72	L	0%
11-23	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	A	63-57	L	0%
11-28	Richmond (92.0)	A10	A	86-78	L	0%
12-1	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	71-62	W	100%
12-6	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	78-69	W	100%
12-8	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	55-60	W	100%
12-29	Purdue (136.0)	B10	A	73-66	L	0%
1-2	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	A	64-50	L	0%
1-5	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	H	66-73	L	0%
1-9	Towson (157.0)	CAA	A	99-86	L	0%
1-12	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	A	70-59	L	0%
1-16	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	74-58	L	0%
1-19	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	48-59	L	0%
1-23	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	95-91	L	0%
1-26	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	63-56	W	100%
1-30	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	66-56	L	0%
2-2	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	72-59	W	100%
2-6	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	81-71	L	0%
2-11	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	64-68	L	0%
2-13	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	92-86	W	100%
2-16	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	62-74	W	100%
2-18	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	75-63	W	100%
2-23	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	60-58	L	0%
2-27	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	72-73	W	100%
3-2	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	67-69	L	0%
3-9	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	N	72-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
William & Mary	CAA	26.35	26.35	43.41	43.41	-3.47	-3.47
James Madison	CAA	6.12	6.12	54.84	54.84	0.59	0.59
Northeastern	CAA	4.39	4.39	60.00	60.00	0.88	0.88
George Mason	CAA	4.38	4.38	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
NC Wilmington	CAA	4.38	4.38	33.33	33.33	-1.46	-1.46
Georgia St.	CAA	4.33	4.33	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Hofstra	CAA	4.31	4.31	17.24	17.24	-2.82	-2.82
Towson	CAA	4.30	4.30	57.14	57.14	0.61	0.61
Old Dominion	CAA	4.30	4.30	17.86	17.86	-2.76	-2.76
Delaware	CAA	2.83	2.83	56.25	56.25	0.35	0.35
Drexel	CAA	2.71	2.71	40.00	40.00	-0.54	-0.54
Richmond	A10	2.05	2.05	54.84	54.84	0.20	0.20
Liberty	BSth	1.99	1.99	38.71	38.71	-0.45	-0.45
Radford	BSth	1.98	1.98	35.71	35.71	-0.57	-0.57
Hampton	MEAC	1.98	1.98	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
High Point	BSth	1.89	1.89	55.56	55.56	0.21	0.21
Purdue	B10	1.84	1.84	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Wake Forest	ACC	1.81	1.81	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Howard	MEAC	1.81	1.81	21.43	21.43	-1.03	-1.03
Miami OH	MAC	1.80	1.80	24.14	24.14	-0.93	-0.93
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.72	1.72	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Campbell	BSth	0.23	0.23	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.23	0.23	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.20	0.20	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Longwood	BSth	0.17	0.17	19.35	19.35	-0.11	-0.11
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	22.58	22.58	-0.09	-0.09
Ohio	MAC	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.14	0.14	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Duke	ACC	0.14	0.14	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.14	0.14	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.11	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Temple	A10	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00