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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:93.0
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:141
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:44



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1293.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida (72.0)SECA68-45L0%0.0
11-18Howard (255.0)MEACH56-49W100%0.0
11-22Rice (247.0)CUSAA65-69W100%0.0
11-25Western Illinois (328.0)SumH83-49W100%0.0
11-29Wofford (47.0)SCH66-62W100%0.0
12-3Richmond (56.0)A10A68-67L0%0.0
12-6High Point (89.0)BSthA66-63L0%0.0
12-22Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA69-62L0%0.0
12-30North Carolina (11.0)ACCA86-64L0%0.0
1-3College of Charleston (298.0)CAAH75-45W100%0.0
1-5Drexel (243.0)CAAA47-73W100%0.0
1-8Elon (259.0)CAAA85-79L0%0.0
1-10James Madison (148.0)CAAH81-73W100%0.0
1-14UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH76-72W100%0.0
1-17Towson (281.0)CAAA72-85W100%0.0
1-21Delaware (253.0)CAAA84-80L0%0.0
1-24Northeastern (86.0)CAAH78-62W100%0.0
1-28Hofstra (174.0)CAAH100-79W100%0.0
1-31James Madison (148.0)CAAA65-84W100%0.0
2-5College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA80-72L0%0.0
2-7UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAA53-56W100%0.0
2-11Elon (259.0)CAAH77-58W100%0.0
2-14Delaware (253.0)CAAH70-73L0%0.0
2-18Northeastern (86.0)CAAA75-64L0%0.0
2-22Hofstra (174.0)CAAA78-80W100%0.0
2-25Towson (281.0)CAAH65-50W100%0.0
2-28Drexel (243.0)CAAH66-80L0%0.0
3-7Elon (259.0)CAAN72-59W100%0.0
3-8Hofstra (174.0)CAAN92-91W100%0.0
3-9Northeastern (86.0)CAAN61-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA26.5926.5964.0664.067.487.48
NortheasternCAA6.106.1067.7467.742.162.16
HofstraCAA6.016.0166.6766.672.002.00
ElonCAA6.006.0042.8642.86-0.86-0.86
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.484.4860.7160.710.960.96
James MadisonCAA4.474.4763.3363.331.191.19
College of CharlestonCAA4.464.4625.8125.81-2.16-2.16
TowsonCAA4.424.4237.9337.93-1.07-1.07
DelawareCAA4.414.4128.5728.57-1.89-1.89
DrexelCAA4.384.3837.0437.04-1.14-1.14
RichmondA101.881.8858.0658.060.300.30
Old DominionCUSA1.811.8176.6776.670.960.96
High PointBSth1.741.7466.6766.670.580.58
RiceCUSA1.721.7235.7135.71-0.49-0.49
HowardMEAC1.691.6946.4346.43-0.12-0.12
North CarolinaACC1.691.6967.6567.650.600.60
FloridaSEC1.691.6946.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Western IllinoisSum1.671.6724.0024.00-0.87-0.87
WoffordSC1.671.6783.8783.871.131.13
UNC GreensboroSC0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
CharlotteCUSA0.240.2443.7543.75-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
La SalleA100.210.2151.5251.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
Miami FLACC0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
DavidsonA100.180.1876.6776.670.100.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
DukeACC0.150.1587.8887.880.120.12
LibertyBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
North TexasCUSA0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
George MasonA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
NavyPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
IUPUISum0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
VMISC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.050.05
UABCUSA0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
The CitadelSC0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1090.6290.620.080.08
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
South DakotaSum0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0774.0774.070.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01