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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:172.7
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:214
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-629.00.01%
20-746.70.03%
19-854.90.08%
18-961.60.57%
17-1078.21.71%
16-1194.73.84%
15-12113.17.83%
14-13133.112.38%
13-14153.816.57%
12-15174.617.77%
11-16197.116.10%
10-17217.211.90%
9-18237.66.65%
8-19257.22.97%
7-20278.11.17%
6-21293.60.33%
5-22304.30.07%
4-23309.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida (32.0)SECA68-45L0%0.0
11-18Howard (305.9)MEACH56-49W100%0.0
11-22Rice (265.3)CUSAA65-69W100%0.0
11-25Western Illinois (286.8)SumH0-075%8.0
11-29Wofford (73.7)SCH0-037%-4.1
12-3Richmond (51.7)A10A0-010%-15.1
12-6High Point (153.5)BSthA0-038%-3.5
12-22Old Dominion (56.0)CUSAA0-011%-14.5
12-30North Carolina (11.8)ACCA0-03%-22.7
1-3College of Charleston (127.4)CAAH0-043%-2.0
1-5Drexel (257.0)CAAA0-045%-1.5
1-8Elon (231.7)CAAA0-043%-2.0
1-10James Madison (233.3)CAAH0-066%5.1
1-14UNC Wilmington (163.9)CAAH0-059%2.8
1-17Towson (170.2)CAAA0-035%-4.7
1-21Delaware (278.2)CAAA0-053%1.0
1-24Northeastern (62.0)CAAH0-034%-5.0
1-28Hofstra (137.4)CAAH0-049%-0.3
1-31James Madison (233.3)CAAA0-043%-2.1
2-5College of Charleston (127.4)CAAA0-022%-9.2
2-7UNC Wilmington (163.9)CAAA0-036%-4.4
2-11Elon (231.7)CAAH0-067%5.2
2-14Delaware (278.2)CAAH0-075%8.2
2-18Northeastern (62.0)CAAA0-015%-12.2
2-22Hofstra (137.4)CAAA0-027%-7.4
2-25Towson (170.2)CAAH0-058%2.5
2-28Drexel (257.0)CAAH0-068%5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA33.3326.4476.9246.8217.95-1.68
James MadisonCAA0.004.7966.6746.630.00-0.32
NortheasternCAA0.004.75100.0071.160.002.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.7466.6748.500.00-0.14
HofstraCAA0.004.7266.6762.860.001.21
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.7225.0055.60-0.000.53
TowsonCAA0.004.7275.0053.880.000.37
DelawareCAA0.004.710.0029.10-0.00-1.97
ElonCAA0.004.7133.3340.92-0.00-0.86
DrexelCAA0.004.710.0031.34-0.00-1.76
RichmondA100.002.0766.6766.720.000.69
Old DominionCUSA0.002.02100.0079.770.001.20
High PointBSth0.001.9475.0055.570.000.22
RiceCUSA16.671.9250.0028.200.00-0.84
HowardMEAC16.671.880.0036.83-16.67-0.50
FloridaSEC16.671.8550.0066.030.000.59
North CarolinaACC0.001.85100.0072.440.000.83
Western IllinoisSum0.001.8533.3333.10-0.00-0.63
WoffordSC0.001.8575.0075.550.000.95
CharlotteCUSA0.000.27100.0070.030.000.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.260.0032.70-0.00-0.09
CampbellBSth0.000.260.0030.19-0.00-0.10
Miami FLACC5.560.23100.0073.535.560.11
La SalleA100.000.22100.0053.840.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.2250.0053.040.000.01
RadfordBSth2.780.1933.3348.73-0.93-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.190.0033.68-0.00-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1933.3345.85-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.19100.0059.190.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.1633.3335.41-0.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.16100.0086.130.000.12
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.160.0040.40-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.1675.0060.550.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.160.0033.55-0.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.14100.0045.790.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1450.0053.430.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.1450.0031.810.00-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.130.0034.98-0.00-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1366.6768.980.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0078.630.000.07
VMISC0.000.1333.3339.27-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.13100.0071.340.000.05
Cal PolyBW0.000.1350.0037.760.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1350.0038.370.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1333.3346.79-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.1333.3325.18-0.00-0.06
TempleAmer0.000.1350.0053.100.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1366.6765.320.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0028.08-0.00-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6752.550.000.01
NavyPat0.000.120.0032.62-0.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0035.36-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.110.0042.57-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.10100.0069.180.000.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1050.0037.430.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1066.6751.200.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1033.3341.77-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.100.0043.18-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1050.0054.970.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1066.6766.670.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.0024.77-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1050.0052.260.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1020.0027.80-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1050.0037.110.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.100.0031.63-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.1066.6749.590.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1033.3344.56-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0085.630.000.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1025.0041.91-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.1075.0071.090.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0037.13-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0032.69-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.090.0036.19-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0933.3322.74-0.00-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.630.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0058.780.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0076.190.000.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0925.0031.12-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0062.070.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0067.570.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0925.0019.94-0.00-0.06
VCUA100.000.09100.0073.570.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.03-0.00-0.05
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0075.720.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0975.0060.410.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0750.0061.440.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0063.720.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0766.6746.620.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0044.810.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.42-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3349.33-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.07100.0043.160.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0775.0071.100.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0750.0045.600.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0766.6760.610.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0063.56-0.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0766.6760.720.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0775.0047.170.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0733.3345.63-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0750.0027.780.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0060.360.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0750.0051.120.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0725.0051.56-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0720.0026.89-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.070.0034.55-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0766.6734.100.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0766.6761.350.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0024.17-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.07100.0042.120.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0056.270.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0066.100.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.61-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0053.080.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6755.980.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0625.0031.88-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0047.840.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0049.23-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0035.11-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.830.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3359.57-0.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3354.50-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6758.230.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.830.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0044.850.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0054.710.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3321.74-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.36-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0633.3341.16-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0062.620.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.84-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0037.890.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0046.040.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3364.76-0.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6754.020.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0045.12-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0466.6763.730.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.040.0063.44-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0433.3346.93-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0450.0047.120.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0425.0035.65-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.040.0066.25-0.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0450.0029.910.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.040.0034.07-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.04100.0065.060.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.040.0025.73-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.040.0034.03-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P122.780.04100.0049.462.78-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.780.040.0039.15-2.78-0.01
TexasB120.000.04100.0081.740.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.97-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0057.63-0.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3336.55-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.660.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.570.000.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB2.780.0350.0062.580.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0366.6767.990.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.180.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0065.140.000.01