live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:119.0
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:184
Current SOS:184
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:189



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12119.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Hampton (204.0)MEACA77-69L0%0.0
11-12Liberty (311.0)BSthH84-72W100%0.0
11-14Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA79-62L0%0.0
11-20High Point (172.0)BSthH69-80L0%0.0
11-23Rutgers (192.0)AmerA62-72W100%0.0
11-27VMI (211.0)BSthH97-67W100%0.0
11-30Howard (323.0)MEACA79-84W100%0.0
12-4Richmond (75.0)A10H60-71L0%0.0
12-7Wofford (153.0)SCA60-63W100%0.0
12-29West Virginia (88.0)B12N82-45L0%0.0
1-1Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH74-68W100%0.0
1-4Western Illinois (290.0)SumA67-78W100%0.0
1-8Drexel (132.0)CAAH85-73W100%0.0
1-15Delaware (65.0)CAAA76-71L0%0.0
1-18James Madison (233.0)CAAH78-56W100%0.0
1-22Hofstra (277.0)CAAA77-60L0%0.0
1-25Drexel (132.0)CAAA66-68W100%0.0
1-27College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH74-63W100%0.0
1-29Delaware (65.0)CAAH72-89L0%0.0
2-2James Madison (233.0)CAAA79-81W100%0.0
2-5UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA50-54W100%0.0
2-8Northeastern (222.0)CAAA70-82W100%0.0
2-15Towson (95.0)CAAH70-85L0%0.0
2-17UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH93-70W100%0.0
2-19College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA87-54L0%0.0
2-22Northeastern (222.0)CAAH81-67W100%0.0
2-26Hofstra (277.0)CAAH79-74W100%0.0
3-1Towson (95.0)CAAA70-68L0%0.0
3-8College of Charleston (242.0)CAAN70-59W100%0.0
3-9Towson (95.0)CAAN71-75W100%0.0
3-10Delaware (65.0)CAAN75-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA26.5226.5262.4262.426.596.59
DelawareCAA5.855.8570.9770.972.452.45
TowsonCAA5.715.7167.8667.862.042.04
College of CharlestonCAA5.715.7142.8642.86-0.82-0.82
James MadisonCAA4.254.2537.9337.93-1.03-1.03
HofstraCAA4.254.2529.0329.03-1.78-1.78
NortheasternCAA4.254.2536.6736.67-1.13-1.13
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.194.1925.0025.00-2.10-2.10
DrexelCAA4.174.1757.1457.140.600.60
LibertyBSth1.911.9128.5728.57-0.82-0.82
RichmondA101.861.8656.2556.250.230.23
High PointBSth1.841.8448.1548.15-0.07-0.07
Old DominionCUSA1.821.8250.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC1.821.8258.6258.620.310.31
HowardMEAC1.801.8020.0020.00-1.08-1.08
VMIBSth1.731.7357.6957.690.270.27
WoffordSC1.671.6760.7160.710.360.36
RutgersAmer1.671.6735.4835.48-0.48-0.48
West VirginiaB121.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
Western IllinoisSum1.611.6126.9226.92-0.74-0.74
Wichita St.MVC1.611.61100.00100.001.611.61
Charleston SouthernBSth0.280.2833.3333.33-0.09-0.09
The CitadelSC0.270.2713.7913.79-0.20-0.20
WinthropBSth0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
CampbellBSth0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.2193.1093.100.180.18
DavidsonSC0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.2178.5778.570.120.12
LouisvilleAmer0.200.2085.2985.290.140.14
RadfordBSth0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
VCUA100.180.1876.4776.470.090.09
LongwoodBSth0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
FurmanSC0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
VillanovaBE0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
TempleAmer0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1383.8783.870.090.09
TulaneCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
NavyPat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01