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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:42.1
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:87
Current SOS:76
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-621.34.55%
20-727.620.26%
19-837.434.10%
18-950.027.57%
17-1063.410.93%
16-1177.52.41%
15-1293.10.16%
14-13108.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina St. (113.3)ACCA68-85W100%0.0
11-17Liberty (278.4)BSthA59-70W100%0.0
11-21Dayton (14.6)A10A69-66L0%0.0
11-25Hampton (196.1)MEACH86-67W100%0.0
11-28Howard (278.4)MEACA79-77L0%0.0
12-1Old Dominion (145.3)CUSAH55-48W100%0.0
12-5Virginia (8.2)ACCA67-52L0%0.0
12-21High Point (176.9)BSthH78-75W100%0.0
12-29Central Michigan (120.6)MACH88-84W100%0.0
12-31Towson (166.9)CAAH69-76L0%0.0
1-2College of Charleston (101.0)CAAH78-70W100%0.0
1-7Drexel (265.5)CAAA63-72W100%0.0
1-9Northeastern (140.8)CAAH78-60W100%0.0
1-14College of Charleston (101.0)CAAA61-63W100%0.0
1-16UNC Wilmington (66.2)CAAA97-94L0%0.0
1-21Elon (125.9)CAAH89-67W100%0.0
1-24Hofstra (71.0)CAAA91-63L0%0.0
1-28Delaware (274.6)CAAA79-94W100%0.0
1-31James Madison (85.9)CAAH68-62W100%0.0
2-4Northeastern (140.8)CAAA77-86W100%0.0
2-6Delaware (274.6)CAAH0-094%16.7
2-11Hofstra (71.0)CAAH0-066%4.5
2-13Towson (166.9)CAAA0-062%3.3
2-18UNC Wilmington (66.2)CAAH0-063%3.5
2-20Drexel (265.5)CAAH0-092%15.3
2-25Elon (125.9)CAAA0-060%2.8
2-27James Madison (85.9)CAAA0-036%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA26.4026.4575.0072.8413.2012.08
NortheasternCAA5.634.7752.3852.190.270.21
DrexelCAA3.204.7715.0019.71-2.24-2.89
James MadisonCAA3.194.7472.7371.281.452.02
DelawareCAA3.244.7423.8125.17-1.70-2.35
ElonCAA3.244.7457.1455.480.460.52
HofstraCAA3.194.7466.6765.321.061.45
TowsonCAA3.254.7461.9056.460.770.61
College of CharlestonCAA5.574.7368.4264.532.051.38
UNC WilmingtonCAA3.194.7373.6871.471.512.03
High PointBSth2.672.0161.1163.930.590.56
North Carolina St.ACC2.671.9854.5550.990.240.04
HowardMEAC2.571.9536.8440.46-0.68-0.37
LibertyBSth2.571.9233.3334.12-0.86-0.61
HamptonMEAC2.501.9263.1663.670.660.52
Central MichiganMAC2.561.8855.5654.090.280.15
VirginiaACC2.501.8880.9575.191.550.95
DaytonA102.501.8585.0080.571.751.13
Old DominionCUSA2.501.8557.1464.010.360.52
RadfordBSth0.300.3052.3853.610.010.02
Western MichiganMAC0.280.2935.0036.61-0.08-0.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.360.2621.0529.17-0.21-0.11
La SalleA100.290.2621.0520.90-0.17-0.15
UNC AshevilleBSth0.240.2363.6465.480.070.07
Miami FLACC0.340.2280.9575.610.210.11
CampbellBSth0.300.2030.0030.38-0.12-0.08
WinthropBSth0.300.2065.0063.360.090.05
East CarolinaAmer0.240.2045.4541.98-0.02-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.2010.0014.87-0.14-0.14
George MasonA100.170.1936.3635.32-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.170.1847.8350.56-0.010.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.240.1757.8957.330.040.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1638.1047.48-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1615.7922.52-0.12-0.09
BradleyMVC0.170.168.709.78-0.14-0.13
FIUCUSA0.170.1642.8645.93-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.220.1623.8128.31-0.12-0.07
DukeACC0.110.1572.7369.900.050.06
Florida St.ACC0.220.1568.1863.240.080.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1425.0029.29-0.09-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1442.8647.26-0.03-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.120.1419.0522.38-0.08-0.08
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1426.3227.35-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.180.1347.6252.95-0.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.180.1327.2730.42-0.08-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1327.2732.87-0.05-0.04
IonaMAAC0.120.1357.1457.700.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1385.7176.020.080.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1330.0033.57-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1352.3853.800.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1331.8235.17-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1381.8277.420.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.180.1357.1457.530.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.230.1328.5728.87-0.10-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1341.6746.85-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.120.1370.0069.090.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.170.1380.0082.450.100.08
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1231.8226.63-0.04-0.06
SyracuseACC0.110.1266.6762.710.040.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1236.3642.18-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.110.1252.3853.670.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1025.0029.91-0.09-0.04
DavidsonA100.180.1057.8955.420.030.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1078.2680.340.070.06
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1068.4265.480.040.03
UMBCAE0.120.1020.8325.00-0.07-0.05
LSUSEC0.170.1063.6459.440.050.02
HarvardIvy0.170.0938.8942.86-0.04-0.01
VillanovaBE0.110.0986.3685.330.080.07
Notre DameACC0.110.0968.1863.710.040.03
VCUA100.110.0977.2776.770.060.05
MichiganB100.110.0972.7367.970.050.03
South FloridaAmer0.110.0920.8320.11-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.0947.6247.96-0.01-0.00
West VirginiaB120.110.0981.8278.720.070.05
ClemsonACC0.060.0963.6462.330.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.110.0981.8277.490.070.05
Rhode IslandA100.060.0954.5555.960.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.110.0952.1747.260.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0986.3680.670.040.06
Wake ForestACC0.110.0945.4542.13-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0757.1457.920.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0750.0046.870.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0756.5253.440.010.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0730.0034.84-0.03-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0735.0035.36-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.0728.5734.73-0.05-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.0781.8281.000.080.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.0726.0930.34-0.06-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.0726.3236.92-0.06-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.120.0768.7573.150.040.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0731.5833.50-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.0780.9579.160.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0761.9058.220.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.0755.0048.830.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0738.8943.23-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.120.0765.2265.220.040.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0766.6760.120.020.01
PennIvy0.060.0731.2532.68-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0747.8343.65-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0733.3329.23-0.02-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.0747.6257.24-0.010.01
The CitadelSC0.120.0735.0031.39-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0757.1457.580.000.01
FurmanSC0.120.0654.5553.780.010.00
MassachusettsA100.120.0642.8639.88-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0626.3233.83-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0643.4845.72-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0654.5555.310.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0622.7324.28-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.060.0631.8234.36-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0619.0521.34-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.060.0663.6456.050.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0650.0045.740.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0665.2266.710.020.02
TempleAmer0.060.0661.9058.400.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0673.6870.400.030.03
PurdueB100.120.0682.6178.230.080.04
Boston UniversityPat0.110.0652.1754.440.000.01
DetroitHorz0.110.0645.0044.39-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0666.6758.770.020.01
George WashingtonA100.120.0677.2771.670.060.03
LipscombASun0.110.0621.7427.63-0.06-0.03
Michigan St.B100.110.0682.6181.380.070.04
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0640.9143.01-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0638.1033.39-0.01-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0645.4547.97-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.110.0656.5258.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.0654.5552.770.010.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0680.0070.310.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0630.0029.47-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0625.0028.19-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0460.0056.080.010.00
Texas TechB120.070.0461.9054.010.020.00
AmericanPat0.060.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0372.7366.980.030.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0321.0523.70-0.04-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0340.0044.99-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0310.0015.31-0.05-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.035.2610.18-0.06-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0390.4885.540.050.02
BYUWCC0.070.0369.5773.040.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0316.6724.28-0.04-0.02
CornellIvy0.060.0347.0643.12-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0383.3380.130.040.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0326.0925.57-0.03-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0366.6761.680.020.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0318.7533.16-0.04-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0361.9062.050.020.01
OhioMAC0.070.0360.0057.940.010.01
RutgersB100.060.0322.7320.68-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0334.7841.60-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0333.3332.42-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0368.4271.820.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0357.1452.310.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0350.0054.850.000.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0363.6461.820.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0385.7184.560.040.02
FordhamA100.060.0357.8954.300.010.00
IowaB100.060.0381.8279.900.040.02
LehighPat0.060.0330.0036.11-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0342.8651.32-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0368.1869.350.020.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0366.6767.310.020.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0358.3354.130.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0314.2916.31-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0359.0962.730.010.01
XavierBE0.060.0390.9184.430.050.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0352.1750.250.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0352.3856.750.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0361.1158.310.010.00
IUPUISum0.050.0341.6740.25-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0375.0072.210.030.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0370.0068.920.020.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0336.3630.98-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0326.0926.65-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0335.0034.92-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0333.3333.65-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0381.8278.320.040.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0314.2913.98-0.00-0.02