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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:110.0
Current RPI:110
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:108
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14110.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Louisville (7.0)ACCA91-58L0%0.0
11-19Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH89-59W100%0.0
11-23Duke (6.0)ACCA88-67L0%0.0
11-26Liberty (172.0)BSthH79-70W100%0.0
11-29Central Michigan (216.0)MACA91-81L0%0.0
12-3Hampton (283.0)MEACA79-69L0%0.0
12-19Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH112-85W100%0.0
12-22Rhode Island (31.0)A10A73-62L0%0.0
12-29Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA54-65W100%0.0
12-31Northeastern (136.0)CAAA84-64L0%0.0
1-2Hofstra (196.0)CAAA93-95W100%0.0
1-5Elon (161.0)CAAH88-85W100%0.0
1-12UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA101-77L0%0.0
1-14College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA77-67L0%0.0
1-19James Madison (255.0)CAAH73-72W100%0.0
1-21Elon (161.0)CAAA71-62L0%0.0
1-26Delaware (235.0)CAAH82-58W100%0.0
1-28UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH96-78W100%0.0
1-30Drexel (308.0)CAAH108-85W100%0.0
2-2Northeastern (136.0)CAAH94-69W100%0.0
2-4Towson (88.0)CAAA82-80L0%0.0
2-9Drexel (308.0)CAAA79-61L0%0.0
2-11College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH89-79W100%0.0
2-16James Madison (255.0)CAAA95-92L0%0.0
2-18Delaware (235.0)CAAA64-85W100%0.0
2-23Hofstra (196.0)CAAH82-96L0%0.0
2-25Towson (88.0)CAAH83-79W100%0.0
3-4Elon (161.0)CAAN71-66W100%0.0
3-5UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAN105-94L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA26.5226.5255.1455.142.732.73
UNC WilmingtonCAA6.226.2286.2186.214.504.50
ElonCAA6.126.1255.5655.560.680.68
College of CharlestonCAA4.634.6374.1974.192.242.24
TowsonCAA4.584.5860.0060.000.920.92
James MadisonCAA4.584.5826.6726.67-2.14-2.14
DelawareCAA4.574.5737.9337.93-1.10-1.10
HofstraCAA4.494.4944.8344.83-0.46-0.46
DrexelCAA4.494.4924.1424.14-2.32-2.32
NortheasternCAA4.494.4948.2848.28-0.15-0.15
DukeACC1.891.8976.4776.471.001.00
Old DominionCUSA1.881.8863.3363.330.500.50
LouisvilleACC1.801.8074.1974.190.870.87
HamptonMEAC1.791.7940.7440.74-0.33-0.33
LibertyBSth1.791.7957.1457.140.260.26
Savannah St.MEAC1.791.7942.3142.31-0.27-0.27
PresbyterianBSth1.781.7811.1111.11-1.39-1.39
Rhode IslandA101.781.7871.8871.880.780.78
Central MichiganMAC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
RadfordBSth0.320.3240.0040.00-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.210.2170.0070.000.080.08
Stony BrookAE0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
La SalleA100.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
RichmondA100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
ToledoMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
DavidsonA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
IonaMAAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
RiceCUSA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
MaristMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
PennIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01