William & Mary

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	299.0
Current RPI:	299
Expected SOS:	155
Current SOS:	155
Current Record:	5-26
Expected Record:	5-26
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-9
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	321
Expected OOC SOS:	220

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-26	299.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-7	St. John's (159.0)	BE	A	74-59	L	0%
11-12	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	A	73-58	L	0%
11-14	Liberty (283.0)	BSth	H	72-75	L	0%
11-18	Lehigh (91.0)	Pat	N	57-82	L	0%
11-19	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	N	44-63	L	0%
11-20	Liberty (283.0)	BSth	A	64-65	W	100%
11-26	Howard (284.0)	MEAC	A	67-58	L	0%
11-30	Richmond (127.0)	A10	H	61-92	L	0%
12-3	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	A	66-34	L	0%
12-18	Missouri (10.0)	B12	A	94-56	L	0%
12-21	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	H	65-83	L	0%
12-29	Miami OH (247.0)	MAC	A	73-69	L	0%
1-2	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	A	70-56	L	0%
1-4	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	H	68-61	W	100%
1-7	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	64-75	L	0%
1-11	Towson (311.0)	CAA	A	49-66	W	100%
1-14	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	A	64-50	L	0%
1-19	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	A	69-68	L	0%
1-21	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	H	66-68	L	0%
1-23	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	H	48-64	L	0%
1-26	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	A	59-47	L	0%
1-28	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	A	68-44	L	0%
2-1	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	H	78-87	L	0%
2-4	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	A	81-68	L	0%
2-8	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	H	51-70	L	0%
2-11	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	H	79-54	W	100%
2-14	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	A	63-61	L	0%
2-18	Virginia Military Inst (259.0)	BSth	A	73-65	L	0%
2-22	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	H	75-71	W	100%
2-25	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	H	60-64	L	0%
3-2	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	N	57-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
William & Mary	CAA	26.30	26.30	16.08	16.08	-17.84	-17.84
Northeastern	CAA	5.53	5.53	42.86	42.86	-0.79	-0.79
Old Dominion	CAA	4.11	4.11	58.06	58.06	0.66	0.66
Georgia St.	CAA	4.06	4.06	63.33	63.33	1.08	1.08
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	4.06	4.06	81.25	81.25	2.54	2.54
Drexel	CAA	4.06	4.06	80.65	80.65	2.49	2.49
NC Wilmington	CAA	4.03	4.03	27.59	27.59	-1.81	-1.81
James Madison	CAA	3.95	3.95	36.67	36.67	-1.05	-1.05
Liberty	BSth	3.48	3.48	37.04	37.04	-0.90	-0.90
Delaware	CAA	2.49	2.49	56.67	56.67	0.33	0.33
Hofstra	CAA	2.47	2.47	32.26	32.26	-0.88	-0.88
George Mason	CAA	2.44	2.44	71.88	71.88	1.07	1.07
Towson	CAA	2.41	2.41	3.23	3.23	-2.26	-2.26
Hampton	MEAC	1.82	1.82	34.38	34.38	-0.57	-0.57
Richmond	A10	1.81	1.81	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	1.77	1.77	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Howard	MEAC	1.74	1.74	27.59	27.59	-0.78	-0.78
Lehigh	Pat	1.72	1.72	77.42	77.42	0.94	0.94
St. John's	BE	1.72	1.72	38.71	38.71	-0.39	-0.39
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.69	1.69	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Iona	MAAC	1.66	1.66	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Missouri	B12	1.66	1.66	87.88	87.88	1.26	1.26
Miami OH	MAC	1.61	1.61	25.00	25.00	-0.81	-0.81
Winthrop	BSth	0.27	0.27	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Radford	BSth	0.24	0.24	13.33	13.33	-0.18	-0.18
La Salle	A10	0.23	0.23	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.22	0.22	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.19	0.19	57.69	57.69	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.19	0.19	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Presbyterian	BSth	0.19	0.19	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Vermont	AE	0.18	0.18	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.18	0.18	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	21.88	21.88	-0.07	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.10	0.10	6.45	6.45	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	94.12	94.12	0.07	0.07
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00