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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


William & Mary

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:168.5
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:152
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-737.00.02%
19-856.60.07%
18-965.20.61%
17-1077.81.56%
16-1195.74.39%
15-12112.08.99%
14-13132.414.39%
13-14153.818.21%
12-15175.618.90%
11-16199.315.15%
10-17223.09.63%
9-18245.55.10%
8-19266.82.20%
7-20283.40.53%
6-21301.80.21%
5-22303.00.02%
4-23320.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Louisville (7.2)ACCA91-58L0%0.0
11-19Presbyterian (322.6)BSthH89-59W100%0.0
11-23Duke (9.9)ACCA88-67L0%0.0
11-26Liberty (211.7)BSthH79-70W100%0.0
11-29Central Michigan (160.1)MACA91-81L0%0.0
12-3Hampton (315.2)MEACA79-69L0%0.0
12-19Savannah St. (346.4)MEACH0-096%21.5
12-22Rhode Island (37.3)A10A0-011%-14.9
12-29Old Dominion (95.5)CUSAA0-025%-8.2
12-31Northeastern (182.8)CAAA0-043%-2.1
1-2Hofstra (225.8)CAAA0-053%0.9
1-5Elon (126.5)CAAH0-054%1.1
1-7Drexel (222.0)CAAH0-072%7.0
1-12UNC Wilmington (47.3)CAAA0-017%-11.6
1-14College of Charleston (115.6)CAAA0-031%-6.1
1-19James Madison (255.3)CAAH0-073%7.5
1-21Elon (126.5)CAAA0-033%-5.1
1-26Delaware (219.8)CAAH0-069%6.1
1-28UNC Wilmington (47.3)CAAH0-033%-5.4
2-2Northeastern (182.8)CAAH0-064%4.2
2-4Towson (157.6)CAAA0-035%-4.7
2-9Drexel (222.0)CAAA0-052%0.7
2-11College of Charleston (115.6)CAAH0-051%0.2
2-16James Madison (255.3)CAAA0-054%1.2
2-18Delaware (219.8)CAAA0-049%-0.2
2-23Hofstra (225.8)CAAH0-073%7.2
2-25Towson (157.6)CAAH0-055%1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
William & MaryCAA28.5626.4133.3347.87-9.52-1.13
James MadisonCAA0.004.7312.5030.28-0.00-1.87
TowsonCAA0.004.7342.8653.06-0.000.29
ElonCAA0.004.7371.4359.700.000.92
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.7066.6761.710.001.10
DrexelCAA0.004.7050.0040.790.00-0.87
HofstraCAA0.004.7062.5043.650.00-0.60
NortheasternCAA0.004.7050.0044.230.00-0.54
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.7083.3377.220.002.56
DelawareCAA0.004.7050.0042.090.00-0.74
Old DominionCUSA0.522.0471.4367.800.220.72
DukeACC8.331.9887.5077.686.251.09
HamptonMEAC8.331.920.0040.47-8.33-0.37
LibertyBSth8.331.9240.0049.85-1.67-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.920.0019.22-0.00-1.18
PresbyterianBSth8.331.9240.0028.10-1.67-0.84
LouisvilleACC8.331.9185.7174.785.950.95
Rhode IslandA100.461.9162.5068.440.120.71
Central MichiganMAC8.331.8566.6754.692.780.17
RadfordBSth0.000.2628.5734.28-0.00-0.08
High PointBSth0.000.2642.8646.48-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.600.2228.5738.15-0.26-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2057.1467.260.000.07
CampbellBSth0.000.2042.8639.20-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.2020.0021.80-0.00-0.11
East CarolinaAmer0.600.1977.7849.900.33-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1971.4351.460.000.01
La SalleA100.000.1966.6755.540.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1916.6736.03-0.00-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.600.1971.4370.390.260.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1733.3352.11-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1750.0071.070.000.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0017.13-0.00-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1614.2938.26-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.600.1650.0048.210.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.1562.5046.900.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1575.0054.490.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0035.95-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.140.0027.12-0.00-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1320.0037.65-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1312.5037.99-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1342.8630.92-0.00-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1342.8645.56-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1357.1433.230.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.460.1316.6729.80-0.31-0.05
BradleyMVC0.000.1342.8627.96-0.00-0.06
IonaMAAC0.000.1357.1464.030.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1337.5047.91-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.460.1244.4434.65-0.05-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1242.8654.90-0.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.1271.4363.170.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.1233.3330.44-0.00-0.05
RiceCUSA0.000.1275.0071.470.000.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1242.8645.30-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.1280.0054.540.000.01
VermontAE0.000.1262.5071.320.000.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1257.1429.790.00-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.1271.4354.860.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.1016.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.690.1042.8656.04-0.100.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1083.3379.850.000.06
RiderMAAC0.600.1050.0048.810.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.600.1022.2241.71-0.33-0.02
The CitadelSC0.690.1050.0030.350.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1044.4441.30-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.690.0975.0073.060.350.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0957.1454.360.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.380.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0916.6730.34-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.0971.4349.170.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0987.5076.230.000.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0050.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.520.0942.8644.71-0.07-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0987.5082.800.000.06
MaineAE0.460.0914.2924.15-0.33-0.05
Michigan St.B100.460.0955.5658.610.050.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0950.0066.300.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0987.5065.250.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0975.0066.100.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0987.5081.960.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0077.380.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0971.4366.700.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0987.5078.510.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0975.0049.180.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0714.2932.19-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0022.58-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.070.0034.47-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0020.75-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0757.1471.520.000.03
FurmanSC0.690.0733.3356.24-0.230.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0063.27-0.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC1.390.0771.4356.260.600.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0685.7178.280.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.21-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.740.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.600.0642.8651.95-0.090.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.990.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.420.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.41-0.000.02
IndianaB100.690.0687.5074.490.520.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.62-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5729.95-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0020.55-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.78-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.33-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0620.0046.79-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3333.36-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0671.4355.820.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.94-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.330.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.03
NavyPat0.000.0625.0037.38-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.970.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0633.3356.57-0.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0685.7145.370.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0637.5033.74-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.840.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.12-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.010.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.980.0642.8658.58-0.140.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0051.040.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.990.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.41-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
Kansas St.B120.600.0387.5059.310.450.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.690.030.0016.78-0.69-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.690.030.0025.23-0.69-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.690.0322.2238.49-0.39-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.600.030.0023.69-0.60-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
Little RockSB0.600.0366.6761.330.200.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.600.0342.8633.23-0.09-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.600.0325.0027.53-0.30-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0064.350.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0355.5646.970.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0056.590.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.02
BaylorB120.520.03100.0076.590.520.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.02
KansasB120.460.0387.5075.860.350.02
Long Beach St.BW0.520.030.0038.27-0.52-0.01
Penn St.B100.460.0366.6746.420.15-0.00
PurdueB100.520.0375.0075.340.260.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.520.0375.0086.710.260.02