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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


New Hampshire

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:156.1
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:256
Current SOS:136
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-558.00.05%
21-670.70.54%
20-782.82.07%
19-895.54.92%
18-9110.99.64%
17-10126.714.87%
16-11144.618.54%
15-12163.218.03%
14-13183.313.96%
13-14203.69.20%
12-15223.64.94%
11-16243.22.12%
10-17261.10.85%
9-18278.90.20%
8-19305.80.05%
5-22339.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Temple (58.9)AmerA52-57W100%0.0
11-17Abilene Christian (201.3)SlndH57-65L0%0.0
11-20West Virginia (16.0)B12A100-41L0%0.0
11-23Detroit (301.2)HorzH86-70W100%0.0
11-27Winthrop (119.7)BSthA60-65W100%0.0
11-30Providence (75.1)BEA76-62L0%0.0
12-3Holy Cross (183.0)PatH0-064%4.4
12-6American (262.3)PatA0-053%0.8
12-10Bryant (194.6)NECA0-046%-1.2
12-18Boston University (172.4)PatA0-035%-4.6
12-31Dartmouth (310.5)IvyA0-063%3.8
1-5Stony Brook (298.6)AEH0-078%9.4
1-11Albany (156.7)AEA0-035%-4.8
1-14Binghamton (270.8)AEH0-079%9.7
1-16Vermont (91.3)AEH0-039%-3.2
1-19Maine (310.8)AEA0-071%6.6
1-22Hartford (335.7)AEA0-073%7.5
1-25UMass Lowell (255.3)AEH0-074%7.8
1-28UMBC (212.5)AEA0-048%-0.7
2-1Stony Brook (298.6)AEA0-061%3.2
2-6Albany (156.7)AEH0-055%1.4
2-9Vermont (91.3)AEA0-022%-9.4
2-12Binghamton (270.8)AEA0-062%3.5
2-15Maine (310.8)AEH0-086%12.8
2-18Hartford (335.7)AEH0-087%13.7
2-22UMass Lowell (255.3)AEA0-055%1.6
2-25UMBC (212.5)AEH0-068%5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New HampshireAE29.4526.3656.6761.743.936.19
MaineAE0.004.7216.6725.88-0.00-2.28
VermontAE0.604.6562.5071.780.152.03
HartfordAE0.004.6312.5022.75-0.00-2.52
UMass LowellAE0.004.6225.0041.20-0.00-0.81
AlbanyAE0.004.6250.0060.740.000.99
Stony BrookAE0.004.5916.6734.06-0.00-1.46
BinghamtonAE0.004.5842.8641.80-0.00-0.75
UMBCAE0.004.5880.0056.380.000.58
Holy CrossPat0.002.1042.8648.08-0.00-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.002.1050.0053.130.000.13
DartmouthIvy0.002.070.0022.93-0.00-1.12
AmericanPat0.001.9816.6735.24-0.00-0.58
ProvidenceBE8.331.9866.6754.822.780.19
BryantNEC0.001.8928.5750.06-0.000.00
TempleAmer9.031.8883.3365.696.020.59
West VirginiaB128.931.8880.0079.905.361.13
Abilene ChristianSlnd8.331.850.0051.34-8.330.05
DetroitHorz8.331.850.0020.20-8.33-1.10
WinthropBSth8.331.8575.0073.214.170.86
Loyola MDPat0.000.3833.3340.49-0.00-0.07
NavyPat0.000.3528.5743.62-0.00-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.3250.0042.420.00-0.05
ColgatePat0.000.3220.0041.31-0.00-0.05
YaleIvy0.000.3133.3364.14-0.000.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.3183.3357.990.000.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.3140.0037.65-0.00-0.08
CornellIvy0.000.2628.5730.63-0.00-0.10
ColumbiaIvy0.000.2642.8642.47-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.2533.3345.58-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.2533.3367.01-0.000.09
NortheasternCAA0.000.2557.1448.240.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.2542.8635.68-0.00-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.000.2240.0043.86-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2116.6734.31-0.00-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2142.8638.05-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.190.0043.04-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1950.0027.250.00-0.09
BucknellPat0.000.1975.0067.660.000.07
LafayettePat0.000.1933.3331.87-0.00-0.07
WagnerNEC0.000.1933.3353.85-0.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1625.0024.66-0.00-0.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.690.1612.5048.98-0.52-0.00
NJITASun0.000.1642.8650.32-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.600.1516.6729.36-0.40-0.06
MassachusettsA100.600.1583.3358.080.400.02
Charleston SouthernBSth1.040.1425.0038.72-0.52-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1316.6736.35-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1350.0054.490.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1340.0050.71-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.920.000.03
ManhattanMAAC2.820.1333.3338.19-0.94-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1328.5733.92-0.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1357.1440.550.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.1283.3344.770.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1228.5750.51-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0083.120.000.08
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1285.7180.960.000.08
SMUAmer0.000.1257.1469.300.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.100.0034.23-0.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.1040.0057.97-0.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.1033.3336.31-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.100.0034.18-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB121.040.1083.3351.920.690.00
Florida St.ACC2.120.1085.7162.411.520.02
IllinoisB102.220.1057.1442.660.32-0.01
MarylandB100.000.1085.7156.490.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1042.8637.60-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0971.4370.330.000.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0950.0052.140.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0933.3341.52-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.690.0950.0055.850.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6770.930.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0933.3338.76-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0983.3376.370.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.690.090.0024.77-0.69-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0080.780.000.06
DePaulBE0.000.0980.0035.960.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.600.0985.7159.740.430.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0714.2929.15-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.070.0037.92-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0725.0030.93-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0058.600.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0750.0056.430.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.07100.0069.770.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0033.54-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0737.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0720.0048.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0750.0051.260.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.070.0028.15-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0728.5730.29-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.13-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0063.95-0.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0757.1448.600.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0740.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0064.840.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0716.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0750.0071.330.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0039.35-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0785.7178.150.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0683.3368.880.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0640.0030.80-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
VirginiaACC0.600.06100.0082.550.600.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.040.0038.51-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0460.0043.970.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0020.01-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC1.040.0471.4358.670.450.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0442.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.040.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.040.0021.30-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0483.3350.740.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0425.0056.71-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
FurmanSC0.830.0320.0049.38-0.50-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.690.0383.3380.700.460.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0022.69-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.600.0328.5734.18-0.26-0.01
La SalleA100.600.0360.0051.780.120.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Ohio St.B100.600.0385.7172.660.430.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.600.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02