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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


New Hampshire

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:267.5
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:249
Current SOS:249
Current Record:5-12
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:345
Expected OOC SOS:297



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12184.00.03%
15-13200.80.24%
14-14216.02.05%
13-15231.08.50%
12-16246.518.40%
11-17262.826.04%
10-18278.723.93%
9-19294.314.03%
8-20308.45.36%
7-21321.01.27%
6-22330.70.11%
5-23338.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas (46.5)B12A78-60L0%0.0
11-19Florida (25.9)SECA70-63L0%0.0
11-21American (307.4)PatH70-74L0%0.0
11-24Furman (89.4)SCN64-78L0%0.0
11-25Utah St. (167.7)MWCN63-77L0%0.0
11-29Boston University (202.6)PatH69-70L0%0.0
12-2Bryant (330.8)NECH75-59W100%0.0
12-5Niagara (187.6)MAACH70-78L0%0.0
12-9Holy Cross (304.1)PatA62-58L0%0.0
12-20George Washington (201.7)A10A68-64L0%0.0
12-22Fairfield (217.8)MAACA78-68L0%0.0
12-30Dartmouth (320.7)IvyH83-66W100%0.0
1-3UMBC (159.0)AEA71-67L0%0.0
1-6Albany (131.7)AEH64-61W100%0.0
1-10Binghamton (270.4)AEH71-67W100%0.0
1-15UMass Lowell (320.4)AEA62-74W100%0.0
1-18Vermont (57.0)AEH56-67L0%0.0
1-21Stony Brook (188.8)AEH0-053%0.9
1-24Maine (331.5)AEA0-069%5.6
1-27Binghamton (270.4)AEA0-048%-0.5
1-31Hartford (250.4)AEH0-071%6.2
2-3Albany (131.7)AEA0-021%-9.1
2-8Maine (331.5)AEH0-086%12.0
2-11UMBC (159.0)AEH0-051%0.4
2-15Vermont (57.0)AEA0-09%-14.7
2-18Stony Brook (188.8)AEA0-031%-5.5
2-21Hartford (250.4)AEA0-049%-0.2
2-27UMass Lowell (320.4)AEH0-079%9.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New HampshireAE26.3526.3525.3336.57-13.00-7.08
AlbanyAE3.444.5673.6870.081.631.83
MaineAE0.514.5010.5314.29-0.40-3.21
VermontAE3.224.4772.2275.821.432.31
HartfordAE0.404.4652.6347.400.02-0.23
UMass LowellAE3.264.4631.2532.23-1.22-1.59
BinghamtonAE3.014.4347.0643.99-0.18-0.53
Stony BrookAE0.234.4338.8945.85-0.05-0.37
UMBCAE3.114.4356.2557.140.390.63
Boston UniversityPat3.262.0947.0651.43-0.190.06
DartmouthIvy3.162.0023.0827.26-1.70-0.91
Holy CrossPat3.101.9722.2227.95-1.72-0.87
BryantNEC3.121.9410.0017.65-2.50-1.26
AmericanPat3.021.9122.2225.57-1.68-0.93
NiagaraMAAC3.021.8555.0051.670.300.06
FairfieldMAAC3.011.8435.2942.14-0.89-0.29
FloridaSEC2.941.7972.2270.601.310.74
FurmanSC2.941.7964.7167.370.870.62
George WashingtonA102.941.7942.1141.60-0.46-0.30
TexasB122.941.7961.1156.210.650.22
Utah St.MWC2.941.7942.1143.63-0.46-0.23
LIU BrooklynNEC0.320.4040.0042.57-0.06-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.590.3822.2228.67-0.33-0.16
ColgatePat0.480.3750.0051.040.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.420.3730.0033.49-0.17-0.12
ArmyPat0.470.3461.1160.530.110.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.3431.5830.00-0.09-0.13
BucknellPat0.310.3161.9068.010.070.11
SienaMAAC0.370.2730.0031.69-0.15-0.10
ColumbiaIvy0.070.2520.0032.26-0.04-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.2452.3848.520.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.320.2464.7164.540.090.07
BrownIvy0.160.2250.0045.130.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.240.2233.3333.36-0.08-0.07
HarvardIvy0.520.2237.5046.63-0.13-0.01
YaleIvy0.220.2241.1847.51-0.04-0.01
NavyPat0.310.2260.0055.160.060.02
MassachusettsA100.230.2150.0046.780.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.300.2163.1666.880.080.07
LafayettePat0.150.1922.2227.51-0.09-0.08
LehighPat0.240.1938.8944.75-0.05-0.02
MaristMAAC0.240.1821.0521.99-0.14-0.10
CanisiusMAAC0.180.1860.0060.340.040.04
RiderMAAC0.230.1865.0065.370.070.06
St. Francis PANEC0.220.1852.9459.250.010.03
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1827.7840.88-0.06-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1668.4255.060.040.02
NortheasternCAA0.310.1563.1663.180.080.04
RutgersB100.070.1557.8947.140.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.240.1547.3748.17-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.130.009.15-0.17-0.10
MarylandB100.090.1370.0065.320.030.04
The CitadelSC0.170.1318.7518.40-0.11-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1266.6773.240.050.06
George MasonA100.160.1245.0041.35-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.1278.9571.810.040.05
Kansas St.B120.150.1273.6862.720.070.03
KentuckySEC0.150.1273.6867.950.070.04
RichmondA100.150.1231.5834.35-0.06-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.150.1266.6768.700.050.04
PennIvy0.080.1064.7162.780.020.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.1052.9460.270.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0952.6347.390.00-0.00
VMISC0.160.0925.0024.17-0.08-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.160.0950.0047.670.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0931.5829.060.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.0929.4139.62-0.06-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0918.7536.76-0.04-0.02
Penn St.B100.160.0961.9055.770.040.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0950.0051.650.000.00
MarquetteBE0.150.0968.4260.530.060.02
DukeACC0.240.0989.4785.190.190.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0923.5332.62-0.04-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.0942.1144.97-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.0944.4448.91-0.02-0.00
West VirginiaB120.150.0984.2178.170.110.05
LouisvilleACC0.140.0977.7869.360.080.03
MemphisAmer0.140.0965.0058.490.040.01
GonzagaWCC0.230.0980.9583.260.140.06
AlabamaSEC0.080.0968.4258.990.030.02
BaylorB120.080.0961.1156.090.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0966.6755.930.020.01
VCUA100.150.0960.0059.690.030.02
ArizonaP120.090.0680.0078.980.050.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.060.003.12-0.09-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.069.5217.94-0.07-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0650.0051.480.000.00
NJITASun0.090.0638.8942.60-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0670.0070.630.030.03
TowsonCAA0.090.0663.1666.000.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0650.0046.260.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.160.0652.6351.090.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.750.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0617.6519.33-0.05-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0677.7879.160.050.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0652.6347.360.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0635.2935.570.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0668.4254.090.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.8959.470.000.01
MercerSC0.080.0644.4454.89-0.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0647.0641.450.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0685.0083.180.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.0627.7827.300.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0670.0060.460.000.01
SamfordSC0.080.0627.7832.66-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0650.0045.900.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7567.640.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0638.8935.350.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0668.7563.620.030.02
Miami FLACC0.160.0676.4769.020.080.02
ButlerBE0.160.0666.6763.070.050.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.0641.1843.41-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.150.0610.5327.31-0.12-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0640.0042.72-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.150.0683.3381.410.100.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0672.2268.920.040.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0637.5031.760.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0678.9576.970.040.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0665.0057.870.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0627.7838.13-0.03-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0666.6763.420.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0644.4444.86-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0685.7182.070.050.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0645.0048.560.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0673.6865.280.030.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0661.1156.830.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0611.7612.81-0.06-0.04
BYUWCC0.140.0680.9576.230.090.03
DavidsonA100.070.0658.8261.440.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.100.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.150.0673.6869.610.070.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0661.1147.260.02-0.00
KansasB120.080.0684.2179.740.050.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0652.6345.860.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.900.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0668.4254.090.030.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.400.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0661.1151.900.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0633.3335.19-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.080.0673.6865.590.040.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.55-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.0342.1145.97-0.02-0.00
Notre DameACC0.110.0363.1661.050.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0350.0052.440.000.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0378.9572.990.050.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0333.3333.80-0.03-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0315.7920.92-0.05-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0378.9576.760.050.02
PurdueB100.080.0390.4888.380.070.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0327.7831.67-0.04-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0357.8953.190.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0350.0055.650.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0322.2227.33-0.05-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0342.8635.25-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0346.6758.78-0.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0368.4269.240.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.34-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.65-0.07-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.830.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UtahP120.070.0361.1158.950.020.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0350.0051.360.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.5316.75-0.06-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0368.4264.200.030.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.030.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.900.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0389.4785.520.060.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0384.2173.210.050.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.36-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.950.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0310.0019.62-0.06-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.76-0.04-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.037.6920.09-0.07-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
LipscombASun0.080.0352.9459.360.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0352.6355.290.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0377.7871.650.040.01
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.160.000.00
MichiganB100.080.0375.0070.270.040.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.640.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0372.2258.940.030.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0366.6763.200.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0368.4257.770.030.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0347.3746.910.00-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0355.0050.370.010.00
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.730.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.980.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02