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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


New Hampshire

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:183.1
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:292
Current Record:13-9
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:214
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9144.90.16%
17-10157.58.94%
16-11172.736.78%
15-12188.637.23%
14-13205.615.01%
13-14223.41.87%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Connecticut (41.1)AmerA85-66L0%0.0
11-19Holy Cross (285.9)PatA69-73W100%0.0
11-24Brown (291.8)IvyA77-88W100%0.0
11-28American (264.6)PatH50-68L0%0.0
11-30Bryant (320.9)NECH75-67W100%0.0
12-3Abilene Christian (317.9)SlndA75-86W100%0.0
12-5SMU (16.4)AmerA98-44L0%0.0
12-13Colgate (228.0)PatA75-59L0%0.0
12-19Dartmouth (292.6)IvyH76-56W100%0.0
12-21Boston University (186.5)PatA78-74L0%0.0
12-30Boston College (233.5)ACCA72-67L0%0.0
1-9Binghamton (298.5)AEH58-43W100%0.0
1-12Albany (96.1)AEA80-75L0%0.0
1-16Stony Brook (41.9)AEH50-80L0%0.0
1-18Maine (310.3)AEA91-99W100%0.0
1-21UMass Lowell (253.4)AEA76-78W100%0.0
1-24Hartford (319.5)AEH84-71W100%0.0
1-27Vermont (160.3)AEH50-66L0%0.0
1-30UMBC (321.1)AEA81-84W100%0.0
2-6Binghamton (298.5)AEA55-59W100%0.0
2-8Maine (310.3)AEH88-75W100%0.0
2-11Albany (96.1)AEH69-68W100%0.0
2-14Stony Brook (41.9)AEA0-04%-19.0
2-17UMass Lowell (253.4)AEH0-073%6.7
2-20Hartford (319.5)AEA0-063%3.6
2-24Vermont (160.3)AEA0-020%-9.0
2-27UMBC (321.1)AEH0-075%7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New HampshireAE26.3326.3763.2161.286.955.95
MaineAE5.354.7534.7833.47-1.63-1.57
AlbanyAE5.284.6975.0075.482.642.39
UMass LowellAE3.104.6839.1339.55-0.67-0.98
HartfordAE3.024.6625.0024.98-1.51-2.33
BinghamtonAE5.234.6526.0928.40-2.50-2.01
UMBCAE3.014.6324.0026.80-1.56-2.15
VermontAE3.014.6350.0052.360.000.22
Stony BrookAE3.004.6181.8281.811.912.93
Holy CrossPat2.752.2743.4841.00-0.36-0.41
Boston UniversityPat2.692.2454.1755.010.220.22
ColgatePat2.732.2340.9142.86-0.50-0.32
DartmouthIvy2.502.1433.3332.90-0.83-0.73
AmericanPat2.562.1126.0928.73-1.22-0.90
BrownIvy2.512.0833.3332.20-0.84-0.74
ConnecticutAmer2.412.0469.5769.140.940.78
Boston CollegeACC2.411.9826.0924.25-1.15-1.02
SMUAmer2.331.9586.3682.341.701.26
BryantNEC2.391.9225.0025.78-1.20-0.93
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.271.8536.8436.17-0.60-0.51
ArmyPat0.470.4154.1754.290.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.520.4112.5013.27-0.39-0.30
YaleIvy0.390.3873.6874.620.190.19
Loyola MDPat0.280.3833.3335.18-0.09-0.11
CornellIvy0.390.3642.1140.24-0.06-0.07
LehighPat0.330.3239.1342.83-0.07-0.05
HarvardIvy0.350.3235.0038.57-0.11-0.07
NavyPat0.380.3264.0064.460.110.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.360.3134.7834.97-0.11-0.09
NJITASun0.270.2956.0055.640.030.03
BucknellPat0.280.2652.1754.940.010.03
LafayettePat0.280.2620.8321.68-0.16-0.14
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.2533.3336.31-0.08-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.240.2350.0051.280.000.01
MaristMAAC0.300.2221.7424.25-0.17-0.12
WagnerNEC0.230.2260.8762.520.050.06
NiagaraMAAC0.240.2224.0024.61-0.12-0.11
St. Francis PANEC0.320.2252.1751.830.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.2242.3146.12-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2240.0043.49-0.05-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.170.2166.6765.240.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.170.2172.2274.700.080.10
PennIvy0.210.2038.8937.69-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.190.1970.8367.930.080.07
South FloridaAmer0.230.1820.0019.73-0.14-0.11
NortheasternCAA0.140.1648.0048.60-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.190.1621.7424.60-0.11-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.200.1672.0069.130.090.06
SienaMAAC0.180.1565.3864.970.050.05
FordhamA100.190.1352.3850.690.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.140.1356.5257.060.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.140.1372.7370.410.060.05
SyracuseACC0.140.1268.0064.090.050.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1272.0071.570.040.05
HoustonAmer0.150.1270.8367.980.060.04
TulaneAmer0.140.1236.0034.84-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.150.1266.6764.700.050.04
MemphisAmer0.140.1258.3359.310.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1045.0049.27-0.01-0.00
TCUB120.160.1045.8339.36-0.01-0.02
OaklandHorz0.150.1065.3865.510.050.03
Rhode IslandA100.150.1058.3357.250.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1040.9143.32-0.02-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.150.1056.0052.870.020.01
Michigan St.B100.140.0980.0081.560.080.06
KentuckySEC0.130.0975.0072.610.070.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.1733.75-0.04-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0941.6739.49-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0979.1775.990.050.05
MichiganB100.140.0970.8366.750.060.03
TempleAmer0.140.0965.2262.370.040.02
UCFAmer0.100.0950.0044.650.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0941.6739.90-0.01-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0766.6766.770.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0750.0049.760.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0752.9452.100.000.00
LamarSlnd0.110.0730.0029.13-0.05-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0714.2924.90-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0776.1972.370.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0758.3359.970.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0745.4546.08-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0764.0062.090.010.02
RutgersB100.050.0721.7420.34-0.03-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0742.3144.53-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0718.1821.11-0.07-0.04
StanfordP120.110.0747.6244.06-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0639.1342.98-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0664.0057.890.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0654.1752.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.280.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0640.0043.39-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0652.1753.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0666.6766.320.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0662.5064.120.010.02
PurdueB100.050.0680.0077.910.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0640.0042.04-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0626.9228.60-0.04-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0634.7832.39-0.01-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0645.4551.69-0.000.00
DukeACC0.090.0675.0071.840.050.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0679.1777.510.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0650.0045.770.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0628.5734.11-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0658.3358.400.000.01
DuquesneA100.040.0660.8756.270.010.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0636.3638.97-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0683.3378.380.060.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0627.2726.45-0.02-0.03
St. John'sBE0.040.0625.0023.45-0.02-0.03
TowsonCAA0.040.0662.5057.730.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0366.6767.670.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0325.0029.89-0.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0354.5552.530.010.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0320.8323.28-0.03-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0354.1754.090.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0325.0025.08-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0322.2231.22-0.03-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0352.0050.760.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0326.3232.40-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0317.6526.67-0.04-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0338.4638.04-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0370.8368.080.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0372.2275.600.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0345.8341.63-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.63-0.02-0.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.200.030.02
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.080.010.01
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0370.8365.580.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.600.020.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.300.020.01
FurmanSC0.050.0356.0054.430.010.00
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.660.040.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.580.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.560.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.770.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0333.3332.04-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0352.0048.920.00-0.00