live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


New Hampshire

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:274.9
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:309
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:307
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-7104.00.02%
19-8131.80.05%
18-9142.90.18%
17-10168.21.00%
16-11186.12.28%
15-12205.54.81%
14-13225.98.77%
13-14246.113.63%
12-15267.315.95%
11-16285.417.35%
10-17302.314.73%
9-18315.610.59%
8-19327.16.27%
7-20335.63.03%
6-21341.51.08%
5-22345.00.23%
4-23348.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Boston College (154.6)ACCA58-50L0%0.0
11-20Bryant (169.0)NECA72-63L0%0.0
11-25Boston University (117.4)PatH0-034%-5.0
11-30Dartmouth (291.9)IvyA0-040%-2.9
12-3LIU Brooklyn (277.6)NECA0-039%-3.2
12-9Rutgers (170.5)B10A0-017%-11.6
12-14Colgate (206.6)PatH0-052%0.5
12-20Sacred Heart (290.5)NECA0-044%-1.7
12-22LIU Brooklyn (277.6)NECH0-063%4.0
12-30Western Michigan (127.8)MACA0-017%-11.3
1-3Stony Brook (109.4)AEA0-013%-13.4
1-6Albany (158.9)AEH0-037%-4.1
1-8Brown (267.8)IvyH0-059%2.7
1-11UMBC (303.6)AEA0-047%-0.8
1-14Hartford (264.9)AEH0-066%5.0
1-17Binghamton (276.6)AEA0-043%-2.2
1-19UMass Lowell (294.7)AEH0-074%7.6
1-22Vermont (158.5)AEH0-040%-3.1
1-28Maine (339.9)AEA0-066%5.0
1-31Stony Brook (109.4)AEH0-030%-6.2
2-4Albany (158.9)AEA0-017%-11.3
2-7UMBC (303.6)AEH0-070%6.3
2-10Hartford (264.9)AEA0-043%-2.2
2-14Binghamton (276.6)AEH0-066%5.0
2-21UMass Lowell (294.7)AEA0-052%0.5
2-25Vermont (158.5)AEA0-020%-10.3
2-28Maine (339.9)AEH0-085%12.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New HampshireAE34.3826.460.0043.49-34.38-3.45
UMass LowellAE0.004.7850.0034.290.00-1.50
MaineAE0.004.740.0017.74-0.00-3.06
BinghamtonAE0.004.710.0033.86-0.00-1.52
Stony BrookAE0.004.6833.3363.75-0.001.29
VermontAE0.004.6833.3358.06-0.000.75
HartfordAE0.004.6875.0042.260.00-0.72
AlbanyAE0.004.6533.3361.79-0.001.10
UMBCAE0.004.620.0035.81-0.00-1.31
LIU BrooklynNEC0.003.960.0043.48-0.00-0.52
Sacred HeartNEC0.002.2750.0037.280.00-0.58
DartmouthIvy0.002.210.0034.75-0.00-0.68
BryantNEC25.002.170.0053.29-25.000.14
ColgatePat0.002.0833.3340.91-0.00-0.38
Boston CollegeACC25.002.0533.3339.39-8.33-0.44
BrownIvy0.002.0525.0037.16-0.00-0.53
Boston UniversityPat0.002.0533.3359.32-0.000.38
RutgersB100.001.8850.0035.980.00-0.53
Western MichiganMAC0.001.85100.0053.590.000.13
NJITind0.000.5525.0025.21-0.00-0.27
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.420.0035.36-0.00-0.12
YaleIvy0.000.3966.6762.540.000.10
WagnerNEC0.000.390.0045.12-0.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.3533.3343.68-0.00-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.32100.0063.360.000.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.3233.3336.55-0.00-0.09
CornellIvy0.000.3040.0040.58-0.00-0.06
HarvardIvy0.000.3050.0067.960.000.11
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.3066.6763.960.000.08
ArmyPat0.000.29100.0066.100.000.09
ColumbiaIvy0.000.2950.0062.620.000.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2850.0038.370.00-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.280.0056.24-0.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.26100.0069.670.000.10
LehighPat0.000.260.0036.87-0.00-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.000.2650.0031.980.00-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2525.0041.91-0.00-0.04
AmericanPat0.000.2250.0054.620.000.02
PennIvy0.000.200.0025.60-0.00-0.10
Notre DameACC0.000.20100.0074.620.000.10
PrincetonIvy0.000.2025.0040.91-0.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.000.1925.0035.71-0.00-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.17100.0045.990.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.1766.6763.730.000.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.160.0028.32-0.00-0.07
LafayettePat0.000.1675.0064.270.000.05
Ohio St.B100.000.16100.0071.340.000.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1466.6760.610.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.14100.0046.020.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1366.6756.650.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.13100.0043.160.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1333.3324.07-0.00-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1350.0037.110.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1333.3359.64-0.000.03
NavyPat0.000.130.0032.62-0.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1366.6762.810.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.10100.0042.120.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.10100.0056.240.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1066.6752.550.000.01
USCP120.000.1050.0027.780.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1033.3357.45-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.10100.0056.980.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1033.3322.74-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1066.6750.790.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0975.0047.170.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6776.510.000.05
IowaB100.000.0950.0065.570.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6761.350.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0068.160.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0036.36-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0049.250.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0733.3364.19-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0071.440.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0061.850.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0052.610.000.00
FordhamA100.000.070.0035.11-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0766.6751.290.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.07100.0065.140.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0766.6765.320.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0055.87-0.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0625.0031.12-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6758.190.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0035.51-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0027.80-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0053.100.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0675.0053.860.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0053.210.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0057.540.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3341.77-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.19-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0064.370.000.02
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.550.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.04100.0061.500.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.040.0025.08-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.04100.0070.980.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0433.3353.79-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0466.6734.100.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.040.0032.48-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0450.0056.270.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0450.0029.910.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0466.6748.330.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.23-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.260.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer6.250.03100.0076.196.250.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.130.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.630.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0034.55-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA103.120.0375.0060.411.560.01
New MexicoMWC3.120.0375.0059.531.560.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.720.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.180.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.630.00-0.01
West VirginiaB123.120.03100.0067.573.120.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.330.000.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6758.230.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.890.000.02