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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


New Hampshire

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:340.0
Current RPI:340
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:316
Current Record:5-24
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-13
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:342
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-24340.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Duquesne (187.0)A10A81-84W100%0.0
11-17NJIT (308.0)indH63-71L0%0.0
11-21Marquette (92.0)BEA58-53L0%0.0
11-24Bryant (177.0)NECH55-60L0%0.0
11-30Holy Cross (127.0)PatH52-63L0%0.0
12-4Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA65-56L0%0.0
12-7Yale (147.0)IvyA71-61L0%0.0
12-15Stony Brook (165.0)AEH48-67L0%0.0
12-18Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH48-62L0%0.0
12-22Rhode Island (155.0)A10A62-45L0%0.0
12-30Towson (95.0)CAAA72-64L0%0.0
1-4Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH53-66L0%0.0
1-7Brown (229.0)IvyA72-68L0%0.0
1-9Binghamton (325.0)AEA67-38L0%0.0
1-15UMBC (327.0)AEH56-42W100%0.0
1-18Hartford (234.0)AEH43-60L0%0.0
1-20Vermont (101.0)AEA57-40L0%0.0
1-23Albany (185.0)AEH60-56W100%0.0
1-26UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA32-61W100%0.0
1-29Maine (330.0)AEH60-68L0%0.0
2-5UMBC (327.0)AEA68-57L0%0.0
2-8Stony Brook (165.0)AEA69-73W100%0.0
2-12Binghamton (325.0)AEH71-72L0%0.0
2-15Hartford (234.0)AEA61-59L0%0.0
2-19Vermont (101.0)AEH44-79L0%0.0
2-22UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH52-58L0%0.0
2-27Albany (185.0)AEA66-48L0%0.0
3-2Maine (330.0)AEA73-69L0%0.0
3-8Vermont (101.0)AEN77-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New HampshireAE26.4226.4218.6218.62-16.58-16.58
VermontAE6.126.1262.9662.961.591.59
AlbanyAE4.714.7156.6756.670.630.63
HartfordAE4.614.6148.3948.39-0.15-0.15
UMass LowellAE4.494.4932.0032.00-1.62-1.62
MaineAE4.494.4911.5411.54-3.45-3.45
Stony BrookAE4.494.4970.0070.001.791.79
BinghamtonAE4.424.4217.8617.86-2.84-2.84
UMBCAE4.424.4225.9325.93-2.13-2.13
NJITind2.172.1733.3333.33-0.72-0.72
DartmouthIvy2.142.1436.0036.00-0.60-0.60
BrownIvy2.142.1450.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy2.132.1350.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC2.082.0853.3353.330.140.14
Central ConnecticutNEC1.991.9932.1432.14-0.71-0.71
Sacred HeartNEC1.981.9813.3313.33-1.45-1.45
DuquesneA101.961.9642.8642.86-0.28-0.28
Holy CrossPat1.941.9458.0658.060.310.31
Rhode IslandA101.911.9140.0040.00-0.38-0.38
TowsonCAA1.781.7866.6766.670.590.59
MarquetteBE1.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
HarvardIvy0.330.3386.2186.210.240.24
ColumbiaIvy0.310.3160.0060.000.060.06
CornellIvy0.310.313.703.70-0.28-0.28
ProvidenceBE0.290.2967.6567.650.100.10
NavyPat0.290.2927.5927.59-0.13-0.13
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.2831.0331.03-0.10-0.10
St. Francis NYNEC0.260.2654.8454.840.030.03
WagnerNEC0.260.2660.0060.000.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.2564.5264.520.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.230.2372.7372.730.100.10
PennIvy0.230.2328.5728.57-0.10-0.10
Loyola MDPat0.220.2234.4834.48-0.07-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
George WashingtonA100.210.2175.0075.000.100.10
HofstraCAA0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.200.2043.7543.75-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.190.1970.3770.370.080.08
La SalleA100.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
AmericanPat0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
ColgatePat0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
ArmyPat0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
George MasonA100.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
ButlerBE0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
RadfordBSth0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02