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Through games of Mar 5, 2015.


New Hampshire

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:195.5
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:322
Current SOS:322
Current Record:17-11
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:4.98%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:287



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11195.5100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Boston College (165.9)ACCA58-50L0%0.0
11-20Bryant (186.6)NECA72-63L0%0.0
11-25Boston University (200.6)PatH75-68W100%0.0
11-30Dartmouth (203.4)IvyA63-65W100%0.0
12-3LIU Brooklyn (251.7)NECA56-72W100%0.0
12-9Rutgers (168.6)B10A60-56L0%0.0
12-14Colgate (177.9)PatH63-57W100%0.0
12-20Sacred Heart (240.1)NECA73-60L0%0.0
12-22LIU Brooklyn (251.7)NECH72-73L0%0.0
12-30Western Michigan (116.9)MACA70-56L0%0.0
1-3Stony Brook (111.5)AEA71-61L0%0.0
1-6Albany (112.5)AEH62-64L0%0.0
1-8Brown (236.9)IvyH68-61W100%0.0
1-11UMBC (344.7)AEA60-63W100%0.0
1-14Hartford (244.6)AEH67-68L0%0.0
1-17Binghamton (333.1)AEA66-73W100%0.0
1-19UMass Lowell (263.0)AEH67-64W100%0.0
1-22Vermont (196.3)AEH73-68W100%0.0
1-28Maine (340.0)AEA58-63W100%0.0
1-31Stony Brook (111.5)AEH63-48W100%0.0
2-4Albany (112.5)AEA63-62L0%0.0
2-7UMBC (344.7)AEH80-46W100%0.0
2-10Hartford (244.6)AEA70-76W100%0.0
2-14Binghamton (333.1)AEH66-48W100%0.0
2-21UMass Lowell (263.0)AEA60-76W100%0.0
2-25Vermont (196.3)AEA64-49L0%0.0
2-28Maine (340.0)AEH65-56W100%0.0
3-4Hartford (244.6)AEH67-63W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New HampshireAE26.5226.5163.7163.717.277.27
HartfordAE6.276.2646.1546.15-0.48-0.48
MaineAE4.674.6610.7110.71-3.67-3.66
BinghamtonAE4.634.6317.8617.86-2.98-2.98
UMass LowellAE4.634.6342.3142.31-0.71-0.71
Stony BrookAE4.604.6067.8667.861.641.64
VermontAE4.604.6059.2659.260.850.85
AlbanyAE4.574.5771.4371.431.961.96
UMBCAE4.544.5414.2914.29-3.25-3.25
LIU BrooklynNEC3.813.8139.2939.29-0.82-0.82
Sacred HeartNEC2.242.2443.3343.33-0.30-0.30
DartmouthIvy2.132.1548.0048.88-0.09-0.05
BryantNEC2.122.1251.7251.720.070.07
ColgatePat2.002.0050.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy1.941.9742.3140.27-0.30-0.38
Boston CollegeACC1.971.9735.7136.68-0.56-0.52
Boston UniversityPat1.971.9742.8642.86-0.28-0.28
RutgersB101.811.8131.0330.44-0.69-0.71
Western MichiganMAC1.791.7955.5655.140.200.18
NJITind0.520.5256.0056.000.060.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.420.4216.1316.13-0.29-0.28
YaleIvy0.370.4070.3768.760.150.15
WagnerNEC0.360.3631.0331.03-0.14-0.14
Holy CrossPat0.330.3344.8344.83-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.330.3267.7467.740.120.12
St. Francis PANEC0.330.3251.7251.720.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.290.2844.4444.54-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.250.2875.0075.330.130.14
ColumbiaIvy0.280.2748.0048.70-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.270.2748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.270.2625.0025.00-0.13-0.13
ProvidenceBE0.240.2470.0069.390.100.09
LehighPat0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.240.2436.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
Notre DameACC0.210.2183.3383.560.140.14
AmericanPat0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
NavyPat0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.190.1828.0028.95-0.09-0.08
PrincetonIvy0.190.1846.1547.68-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
BucknellPat0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1544.4444.65-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.150.1542.8642.57-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.150.1558.6257.930.030.02
Ohio St.B100.150.1573.3372.560.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.120.1268.9769.170.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.1276.0075.240.050.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1244.8343.73-0.01-0.02
SienaMAAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.0970.3771.000.040.04
RiderMAAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0968.9768.960.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.090.0957.1458.010.010.01
USCP120.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0950.0048.750.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0049.040.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.090.0960.0059.670.020.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.3363.730.020.02
IowaB100.090.0966.6767.380.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0955.1755.990.010.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0955.1753.880.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.0059.100.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0637.0436.18-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0629.6329.20-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0622.2223.21-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0653.8553.590.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.4833.47-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0663.3363.000.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0655.5656.340.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0679.3178.680.040.03
IllinoisB100.060.0663.3362.470.020.01
ButlerBE0.060.0670.0069.320.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0670.0070.110.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.5265.880.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0658.0659.050.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.3363.700.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0668.9767.090.020.02
TempleAmer0.060.0670.0069.660.020.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0651.7253.220.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
WashingtonP120.060.0651.7250.300.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0662.9661.330.020.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0655.1753.650.010.00
VirginiaACC0.060.0696.5595.350.060.05
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0663.3362.750.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.060.0683.3382.790.040.04
MichiganB100.030.0646.4347.82-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.060.0663.3363.340.020.02
IPFWSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0326.9229.11-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0370.3768.740.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0365.5265.400.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.0099.900.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0344.8345.40-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0341.3841.54-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0332.1432.89-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0341.3843.04-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.12-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.6258.020.010.00
DenverSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0390.0088.610.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0376.6775.460.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0356.6755.620.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.2848.71-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0370.0069.450.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.250.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.07-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0343.3343.10-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0373.3373.210.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.3354.210.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0049.660.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0366.6766.280.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0344.8344.45-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.6257.790.010.00
WisconsinB100.030.0390.0088.730.020.02