New Hampshire

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	315.8
Current RPI:	318
Expected SOS:	342
Current SOS:	339
Current Record:	7-13
Expected Record:	10-17
Current Conf Record:	3-7
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.72%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	316
Expected OOC SOS:	341

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-13	280.1	0.20%
13-14	290.9	2.55%
12-15	300.7	12.93%
11-16	310.5	30.98%
10-17	320.3	33.27%
9-18	328.8	16.72%
8-19	334.7	3.08%
7-20	338.5	0.26%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Boston College (248.2)	ACC	A	67-64	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	60-66	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	53-50	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	A	62-57	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	A	56-69	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	A	58-52	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	73-56	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Providence (146.8)	BE	A	67-52	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	H	59-77	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	H	71-64	W	100%	0.0
1-2	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	76-82	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	56-49	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	86-63	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Vermont (173.1)	AE	H	72-64	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	61-52	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	50-52	L	0%	0.0
1-22	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	49-64	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	69-80	L	0%	0.0
1-29	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	77-60	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	52-51	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	H	0-0		24%	-7.8
2-9	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	0-0		39%	-3.2
2-12	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	0-0		65%	4.3
2-15	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	0-0		15%	-11.3
2-18	Towson (304.8)	CAA	H	0-0		83%	10.5
2-22	Maine (261.2)	AE	A	0-0		27%	-6.8
2-26	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	H	0-0		89%	13.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Hampshire	AE	26.30	26.36	32.95	36.31	-8.97	-7.22
Hartford	AE	5.80	4.72	14.29	18.81	-4.14	-2.94
Albany	AE	3.39	4.69	58.33	59.02	0.56	0.85
Vermont	AE	5.71	4.69	60.87	63.35	1.24	1.25
Maine	AE	3.20	4.68	47.37	46.77	-0.17	-0.30
Boston University	AE	3.26	4.66	45.83	49.08	-0.27	-0.09
MD Baltimore County	AE	3.15	4.65	9.52	12.57	-2.55	-3.48
Stony Brook	AE	3.24	4.64	65.00	66.44	0.97	1.53
Binghamton	AE	3.21	4.62	0.00	3.93	-3.21	-4.26
Holy Cross	Pat	3.00	2.20	38.10	39.91	-0.71	-0.44
Marist	MAAC	2.88	2.17	36.36	34.62	-0.78	-0.67
Brown	Ivy	2.89	2.17	28.57	24.62	-1.24	-1.10
Colgate	Pat	2.78	2.11	31.82	30.55	-1.01	-0.82
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.67	2.10	76.19	72.50	1.40	0.95
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.82	2.10	15.00	17.79	-1.97	-1.35
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.84	2.08	41.67	44.08	-0.47	-0.25
Boston College	ACC	2.77	2.07	27.27	23.90	-1.26	-1.08
Fairfield	MAAC	2.72	2.01	52.38	52.67	0.13	0.11
Providence	BE	2.72	1.98	54.55	48.61	0.25	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.16	1.98	4.00	4.87	-0.14	-1.78
Rider	MAAC	0.34	0.38	37.50	38.52	-0.08	-0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.45	0.38	37.50	41.54	-0.11	-0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.27	0.38	36.84	41.45	-0.07	-0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.39	0.35	73.91	75.00	0.18	0.17
Canisius	MAAC	0.39	0.32	17.39	19.81	-0.25	-0.19
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.22	0.32	21.74	24.58	-0.13	-0.16
Manhattan	MAAC	0.33	0.32	68.00	69.07	0.12	0.12
Yale	Ivy	0.49	0.31	72.22	63.19	0.22	0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.37	0.31	45.45	45.55	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.44	0.31	90.48	87.91	0.35	0.23
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.47	0.31	56.52	57.15	0.06	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.28	0.29	55.00	54.80	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.28	0.26	40.91	41.72	-0.05	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.27	0.25	79.17	80.10	0.16	0.15
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.31	0.25	8.70	12.13	-0.26	-0.19
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.25	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.28	0.22	65.22	63.79	0.08	0.06
Rutgers	BE	0.28	0.22	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.17	0.22	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.28	0.22	20.83	20.60	-0.16	-0.13
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.32	0.22	45.45	45.70	-0.03	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.18	0.21	33.33	34.47	-0.06	-0.06
Navy	Pat	0.16	0.19	9.52	13.19	-0.13	-0.14
Hofstra	CAA	0.16	0.19	32.00	35.39	-0.06	-0.05
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.27	0.19	26.09	28.60	-0.13	-0.08
Bryant	NEC	0.23	0.18	8.33	10.86	-0.19	-0.14
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.21	0.18	56.52	55.95	0.03	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.18	0.16	68.18	63.99	0.06	0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.17	0.16	65.22	62.65	0.05	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.16	0.16	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.16	79.17	78.10	0.06	0.09
La Salle	A10	0.16	0.15	70.83	68.82	0.07	0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.16	0.15	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.21	0.15	54.55	48.60	0.02	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.21	0.15	95.83	92.01	0.20	0.13
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.15	76.00	72.50	0.06	0.07
Indiana	B10	0.12	0.13	75.00	75.78	0.06	0.07
Lehigh	Pat	0.17	0.13	73.91	74.91	0.08	0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.13	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.16	0.12	28.00	28.91	-0.07	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.12	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.15	0.12	70.83	71.05	0.06	0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.12	0.10	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.10	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.10	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.16	0.09	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.09	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.09	21.74	22.76	-0.06	-0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.15	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.08	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.07	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.07	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.07	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.05	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.10	0.05
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.12	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.05	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.00	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.00	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.00	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.00	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.00	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.00	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.00	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.00	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.00	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.00	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.00	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.00	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.00	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.00	-0.02