New Hampshire

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	293.0
Current RPI:	293
Expected SOS:	242
Current SOS:	242
Current Record:	8-20
Expected Record:	8-20
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	295
Expected OOC SOS:	288

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-20	293.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	58-72	W	100%
11-17	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	76-64	L	0%
11-21	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	69-67	L	0%
11-24	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	A	60-50	L	0%
11-29	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	A	61-53	L	0%
12-1	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	63-50	W	100%
12-5	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	84-87	L	0%
12-8	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	64-56	W	100%
12-16	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	A	61-59	L	0%
12-23	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	A	72-45	L	0%
12-30	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	A	65-63	L	0%
1-2	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	51-64	L	0%
1-5	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	65-49	L	0%
1-9	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	68-57	L	0%
1-16	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	62-68	L	0%
1-19	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	59-69	L	0%
1-24	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	40-51	L	0%
1-26	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	45-63	W	100%
1-30	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	54-57	W	100%
2-2	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	54-56	L	0%
2-6	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	63-48	L	0%
2-13	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	92-86	W	100%
2-17	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	68-56	L	0%
2-20	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	49-44	L	0%
2-23	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	68-56	W	100%
2-28	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	56-49	L	0%
3-3	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	79-74	W	100%
3-9	Vermont (134.0)	AE	N	61-42	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Hampshire	AE	26.42	26.42	29.51	29.51	-10.83	-10.83
Vermont	AE	6.39	6.39	62.07	62.07	1.54	1.54
Albany	AE	4.73	4.73	68.75	68.75	1.77	1.77
MD Baltimore County	AE	4.62	4.62	21.43	21.43	-2.64	-2.64
Hartford	AE	4.60	4.60	53.57	53.57	0.33	0.33
Binghamton	AE	4.60	4.60	7.41	7.41	-3.92	-3.92
Maine	AE	4.60	4.60	37.04	37.04	-1.19	-1.19
Stony Brook	AE	4.60	4.60	75.00	75.00	2.30	2.30
Boston University	AE	4.45	4.45	55.56	55.56	0.49	0.49
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.17	2.17	30.77	30.77	-0.84	-0.84
Brown	Ivy	2.15	2.15	46.15	46.15	-0.17	-0.17
Yale	Ivy	2.12	2.12	42.86	42.86	-0.30	-0.30
Holy Cross	Pat	2.05	2.05	37.93	37.93	-0.50	-0.50
Bryant	NEC	2.03	2.03	62.07	62.07	0.49	0.49
Colgate	Pat	2.03	2.03	32.26	32.26	-0.72	-0.72
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.00	2.00	41.38	41.38	-0.34	-0.34
Connecticut	BE	1.93	1.93	65.52	65.52	0.60	0.60
Boston College	ACC	1.91	1.91	46.88	46.88	-0.12	-0.12
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.81	1.81	45.83	45.83	-0.15	-0.15
Penn St.	B10	1.81	1.81	30.00	30.00	-0.73	-0.73
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.50	0.50	48.39	48.39	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.43	0.43	66.67	66.67	0.14	0.14
Cornell	Ivy	0.40	0.40	40.00	40.00	-0.08	-0.08
Army	Pat	0.40	0.40	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.39	0.39	31.03	31.03	-0.15	-0.15
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.38	0.38	29.03	29.03	-0.16	-0.16
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.33	0.33	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.30	0.30	40.00	40.00	-0.06	-0.06
Providence	BE	0.27	0.27	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.26	0.26	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.26	0.26	23.33	23.33	-0.14	-0.14
Columbia	Ivy	0.25	0.25	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.24	0.24	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
Northeastern	CAA	0.24	0.24	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.21	0.21	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Princeton	Ivy	0.19	0.19	59.26	59.26	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Lafayette	Pat	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.18	0.18	84.38	84.38	0.12	0.12
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	14.29	14.29	-0.13	-0.13
Niagara	MAAC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
American	Pat	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.17	0.17	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.12	0.12	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Indiana	B10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.07	0.07	18.18	18.18	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.04	0.04	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01