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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


New Hampshire

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:177.0
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:299
Current Record:17-12
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:214
Expected OOC SOS:310



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12177.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Connecticut (32.0)AmerA85-66L0%0.0
11-19Holy Cross (248.0)PatA69-73W100%0.0
11-24Brown (312.0)IvyA77-88W100%0.0
11-28American (231.0)PatH50-68L0%0.0
11-30Bryant (320.0)NECH75-67W100%0.0
12-3Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA75-86W100%0.0
12-5SMU (13.0)AmerA98-44L0%0.0
12-13Colgate (241.0)PatA75-59L0%0.0
12-19Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH76-56W100%0.0
12-21Boston University (196.0)PatA78-74L0%0.0
12-30Boston College (250.0)ACCA72-67L0%0.0
1-9Binghamton (299.0)AEH58-43W100%0.0
1-12Albany (107.0)AEA80-75L0%0.0
1-16Stony Brook (59.0)AEH50-80L0%0.0
1-18Maine (317.0)AEA91-99W100%0.0
1-21UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA76-78W100%0.0
1-24Hartford (292.0)AEH84-71W100%0.0
1-27Vermont (126.0)AEH50-66L0%0.0
1-30UMBC (335.0)AEA81-84W100%0.0
2-6Binghamton (299.0)AEA55-59W100%0.0
2-8Maine (317.0)AEH88-75W100%0.0
2-11Albany (107.0)AEH69-68W100%0.0
2-14Stony Brook (59.0)AEA59-58L0%0.0
2-17UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH80-69W100%0.0
2-20Hartford (292.0)AEA63-74W100%0.0
2-24Vermont (126.0)AEA73-67L0%0.0
2-27UMBC (335.0)AEH78-69W100%0.0
3-2Binghamton (299.0)AEH56-51W100%0.0
3-7Vermont (126.0)AEA63-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New HampshireAE26.4926.4963.3663.367.087.08
VermontAE6.176.1756.6756.670.820.82
BinghamtonAE6.076.0729.6329.63-2.47-2.47
MaineAE4.564.5628.5728.57-1.96-1.96
Stony BrookAE4.564.5678.5778.572.602.60
HartfordAE4.524.5230.0030.00-1.81-1.81
AlbanyAE4.484.4875.8675.862.322.32
UMBCAE4.444.4423.3323.33-2.37-2.37
UMass LowellAE4.414.4138.4638.46-1.02-1.02
Boston UniversityPat2.122.1253.3353.330.140.14
Holy CrossPat2.092.0943.7543.75-0.26-0.26
ColgatePat2.082.0839.2939.29-0.45-0.45
DartmouthIvy2.012.0134.6234.62-0.62-0.62
AmericanPat1.981.9836.6736.67-0.53-0.53
BrownIvy1.931.9326.9226.92-0.89-0.89
ConnecticutAmer1.901.9069.7069.700.750.75
Boston CollegeACC1.841.8419.3519.35-1.13-1.13
SMUAmer1.811.8182.7682.761.181.18
BryantNEC1.791.7924.1424.14-0.92-0.92
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.721.7234.6234.62-0.53-0.53
ArmyPat0.450.4558.0658.060.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.400.4013.7913.79-0.29-0.29
YaleIvy0.370.3777.7877.780.210.21
CornellIvy0.360.3633.3333.33-0.12-0.12
Loyola MDPat0.360.3630.0030.00-0.14-0.14
LehighPat0.330.3351.6151.610.010.01
HarvardIvy0.320.3242.8642.86-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.300.3030.0030.00-0.12-0.12
NavyPat0.280.2856.2556.250.030.03
NJITASun0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
BucknellPat0.250.2555.1755.170.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.2342.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.220.2223.3323.33-0.12-0.12
LafayettePat0.220.2220.0020.00-0.13-0.13
NiagaraMAAC0.220.2221.8821.88-0.12-0.12
PennIvy0.210.2137.0437.04-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
WagnerNEC0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.190.1977.7877.780.100.10
Notre DameACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.170.1724.2424.24-0.09-0.09
BuffaloMAC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.160.1673.3373.330.080.08
NortheasternCAA0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
SienaMAAC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
MemphisAmer0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
OaklandHorz0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
FordhamA100.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
SyracuseACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
HoustonAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
TCUB120.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01