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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


New Hampshire

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:127.0
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:199
Current SOS:199
Current Record:17-12
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12127.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Temple (137.0)AmerA52-57W100%0.0
11-17Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH57-65L0%0.0
11-20West Virginia (24.0)B12A100-41L0%0.0
11-23Detroit (289.0)HorzH86-70W100%0.0
11-27Winthrop (70.0)BSthA60-65W100%0.0
11-30Providence (56.0)BEA76-62L0%0.0
12-3Holy Cross (204.0)PatH56-53W100%0.0
12-6American (310.0)PatA70-80W100%0.0
12-10Bryant (285.0)NECA73-86W100%0.0
12-18Boston University (187.0)PatA73-69L0%0.0
12-31Dartmouth (305.0)IvyA63-62L0%0.0
1-5Stony Brook (176.0)AEH56-59L0%0.0
1-11Albany (129.0)AEA67-75W100%0.0
1-14Binghamton (311.0)AEH73-66W100%0.0
1-16Vermont (46.0)AEH59-71L0%0.0
1-19Maine (322.0)AEA63-74W100%0.0
1-22Hartford (327.0)AEA56-81W100%0.0
1-25UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH80-71W100%0.0
1-28UMBC (165.0)AEA105-103L0%0.0
2-1Stony Brook (176.0)AEA64-61L0%0.0
2-6Albany (129.0)AEH55-69L0%0.0
2-9Vermont (46.0)AEA82-74L0%0.0
2-12Binghamton (311.0)AEA55-63W100%0.0
2-15Maine (322.0)AEH64-51W100%0.0
2-18Hartford (327.0)AEH82-52W100%0.0
2-22UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA67-78W100%0.0
2-25UMBC (165.0)AEH94-90W100%0.0
3-1UMBC (165.0)AEH74-65W100%0.0
3-6Vermont (46.0)AEA74-41L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New HampshireAE26.5026.5062.5962.596.676.67
VermontAE6.196.1983.3383.334.134.13
UMBCAE6.006.0060.0060.001.201.20
AlbanyAE4.574.5761.2961.291.031.03
MaineAE4.544.5420.6920.69-2.66-2.66
Stony BrookAE4.464.4655.1755.170.460.46
HartfordAE4.434.4330.0030.00-1.77-1.77
BinghamtonAE4.404.4033.3333.33-1.47-1.47
UMass LowellAE4.374.3735.7135.71-1.25-1.25
Boston UniversityPat1.951.9553.3353.330.130.13
Holy CrossPat1.951.9548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy1.941.9423.0823.08-1.04-1.04
ProvidenceBE1.861.8661.2961.290.420.42
AmericanPat1.831.8327.5927.59-0.82-0.82
BryantNEC1.761.7636.6736.67-0.47-0.47
West VirginiaB121.751.7575.7675.760.900.90
TempleAmer1.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
DetroitHorz1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
WinthropBSth1.721.7282.7682.761.131.13
NavyPat0.370.3748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.370.3746.6746.67-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.300.3060.7160.710.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
BrownIvy0.280.2839.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.2820.6920.69-0.17-0.17
ColgatePat0.280.2829.0329.03-0.12-0.12
ArmyPat0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
LehighPat0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
MaristMAAC0.250.2525.0025.00-0.12-0.12
NortheasternCAA0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.230.2325.0025.00-0.12-0.12
ColumbiaIvy0.230.2338.4638.46-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.210.2132.2632.26-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.200.2061.5461.540.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.1940.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
WagnerNEC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
LafayettePat0.170.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
LongwoodBSth0.150.1514.2914.29-0.10-0.10
NJITASun0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1310.0010.00-0.11-0.11
HofstraCAA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
SienaMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
St. John'sBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
RutgersB100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.070.07
SMUAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0929.4129.41-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
OklahomaB120.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
DePaulBE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.040.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01