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Through games of Feb 24, 2017.


Middle Tennessee

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:36.3
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:128
Current Record:23-4
Expected Record:26-4
Current Conf Record:14-1
Expected Conf Record:17-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-434.165.79%
25-540.031.92%
24-649.62.23%
23-759.00.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Murray St. (237.1)OVCH87-81W100%0.0
11-19Tennessee St. (145.8)OVCH63-74L0%0.0
11-22Toledo (153.3)MACH80-70W100%0.0
11-25UNC Wilmington (35.5)CAAN68-63W100%0.0
11-26Toledo (153.3)MACN73-70W100%0.0
11-27Evansville (196.5)MVCN66-55W100%0.0
11-30Mississippi (74.4)SECA62-77W100%0.0
12-3South Alabama (219.3)SBA55-67W100%0.0
12-8Vanderbilt (48.1)SECH71-48W100%0.0
12-14Belmont (57.1)OVCA66-79W100%0.0
12-17VCU (22.1)A10A80-77L0%0.0
12-21Georgia St. (120.2)SBH56-64L0%0.0
1-1UAB (185.0)CUSAH60-49W100%0.0
1-5Rice (167.3)CUSAA77-80W100%0.0
1-7North Texas (328.5)CUSAA68-79W100%0.0
1-12Marshall (127.9)CUSAH69-57W100%0.0
1-14Western Kentucky (223.6)CUSAH91-76W100%0.0
1-19FIU (339.5)CUSAA52-65W100%0.0
1-21Florida Atlantic (285.5)CUSAA57-86W100%0.0
1-26Southern Miss (336.3)CUSAH72-56W100%0.0
1-28Louisiana Tech (110.4)CUSAH71-61W100%0.0
2-2UTSA (284.5)CUSAA59-69W100%0.0
2-4UTEP (253.0)CUSAA57-54L0%0.0
2-9Old Dominion (126.3)CUSAH64-51W100%0.0
2-11Charlotte (230.8)CUSAH70-55W100%0.0
2-16Western Kentucky (223.6)CUSAA52-78W100%0.0
2-18Marshall (127.9)CUSAA86-97W100%0.0
2-26UAB (185.0)CUSAA0-070%5.7
3-2FIU (339.5)CUSAH0-097%20.1
3-4Florida Atlantic (285.5)CUSAH0-096%18.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Middle TennesseeCUSA26.1426.2085.1985.4618.4018.58
UABCUSA2.484.0253.8555.990.190.48
MarshallCUSA4.294.0156.0057.360.510.59
Western KentuckyCUSA4.274.0050.0049.510.00-0.04
FIUCUSA2.464.0016.0016.99-1.67-2.64
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.413.9630.4331.35-0.94-1.48
ToledoMAC3.843.4553.8554.830.300.33
Old DominionCUSA2.522.4165.3866.310.780.79
UTEPCUSA2.422.3640.0041.38-0.48-0.41
UTSACUSA2.412.3640.0039.51-0.48-0.50
CharlotteCUSA2.442.3545.8345.48-0.20-0.21
Southern MissCUSA2.492.3324.0023.28-1.29-1.24
RiceCUSA2.352.3068.0065.770.850.73
Louisiana TechCUSA2.452.3073.0873.381.131.08
North TexasCUSA2.352.3025.0026.20-1.17-1.09
South AlabamaSB2.031.8445.8344.31-0.17-0.21
BelmontOVC2.021.8483.3383.111.351.22
Tennessee St.OVC1.961.7956.0054.700.230.17
Murray St.OVC1.991.7946.1546.19-0.15-0.14
EvansvilleMVC1.991.7844.4445.21-0.22-0.17
VanderbiltSEC1.961.7655.5653.640.220.13
MississippiSEC1.961.7562.9661.870.510.42
Georgia St.SB1.961.7558.3357.910.330.28
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.951.7585.1985.091.371.23
VCUA101.891.6981.4878.691.190.97
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.380.3232.1433.01-0.14-0.11
Morehead St.OVC0.280.2446.1546.92-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.2160.7160.450.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.250.2150.0049.420.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.240.2029.6329.38-0.10-0.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1814.8115.42-0.13-0.13
Texas St.SB0.150.1854.1753.200.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1757.6955.370.020.02
TroySB0.180.1753.8552.820.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1751.8550.690.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1770.3770.550.060.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.200.1740.7440.21-0.04-0.03
AuburnSEC0.170.1760.7159.640.040.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.1648.0047.40-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.200.1642.3143.70-0.03-0.02
OhioMAC0.200.1668.0068.590.070.06
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1651.8549.980.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1635.7135.96-0.05-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.1546.1546.97-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1574.0774.070.050.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.144.005.35-0.13-0.13
ElonCAA0.140.1453.5754.770.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.170.1427.5928.31-0.08-0.06
FloridaSEC0.140.1482.1480.620.090.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1448.1548.29-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1432.1431.92-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.170.1433.3331.77-0.06-0.05
DetroitHorz0.170.1425.0024.68-0.08-0.07
MissouriSEC0.130.1325.9325.76-0.06-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1242.8644.04-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.100.1244.8345.02-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1225.0027.75-0.07-0.05
Ohio St.B100.110.1255.1754.740.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1256.0055.930.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1276.0076.570.060.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1220.0021.72-0.09-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1150.0052.060.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1128.0028.90-0.06-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.140.1160.7161.120.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1135.7135.66-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1157.1457.070.020.02
AkronMAC0.130.1178.5777.240.080.06
George WashingtonA100.100.1153.5752.610.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1189.2989.470.080.09
Ball St.MAC0.070.1162.9661.290.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.1137.5039.92-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.130.1155.5655.060.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1137.0438.57-0.03-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.130.1151.8552.290.000.00
LipscombASun0.110.0957.1457.140.020.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0948.0047.52-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.0946.1547.50-0.01-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0969.2368.610.010.03
DrexelCAA0.100.0927.5927.07-0.05-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0982.1481.640.060.06
Little RockSB0.040.0944.0043.40-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0948.2848.16-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.110.0960.7159.310.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0966.6766.800.020.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0928.5728.57-0.03-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0937.5042.40-0.03-0.01
TowsonCAA0.100.0962.0761.420.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.0950.0050.280.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0833.3334.84-0.02-0.03
BradleyMVC0.100.0834.4834.78-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.100.0853.5750.740.010.00
DavidsonA100.100.0851.8551.260.000.00
Green BayHorz0.100.0855.5656.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.0846.4346.16-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.100.0835.7134.77-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0865.3866.650.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0864.2962.790.020.02
RichmondA100.100.0859.2660.010.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.0875.0071.890.050.04
DaytonA100.070.0881.4880.730.040.05
KentuckySEC0.070.0882.1481.770.040.05
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0851.8551.680.000.00
Miami FLACC0.040.0670.3767.230.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.040.0625.9325.24-0.02-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0625.9325.65-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0625.9327.42-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0646.4343.88-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0613.7913.43-0.05-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.0657.1455.800.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0651.7250.180.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0652.1749.970.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0672.4172.930.030.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0635.7134.89-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0622.2223.45-0.04-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0630.7733.73-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0651.7250.330.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0680.0080.880.040.04
North FloridaASun0.040.0633.3333.33-0.01-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0651.7250.580.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0648.1547.59-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0627.2728.62-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0630.7734.72-0.03-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0637.5040.08-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0686.2186.340.050.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.5778.530.040.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0646.1546.91-0.01-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0662.9663.430.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0622.2224.26-0.02-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0689.2987.810.050.04
FurmanSC0.030.0664.2964.510.010.02
KansasB120.030.0689.2987.850.030.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0675.0077.130.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.030.0648.0047.16-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0635.7134.82-0.01-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0622.2222.74-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0519.2321.45-0.04-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0542.8642.05-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0559.2657.880.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0581.4878.550.040.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0548.1548.67-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0562.9661.410.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0555.5656.820.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0530.7729.89-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.050.003.37-0.07-0.05
WashingtonP120.070.0533.3332.54-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0325.0026.70-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0324.1424.00-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.040.0328.5728.29-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0356.6756.420.000.00
DukeACC0.040.0378.5776.180.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.040.0357.6957.160.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0378.5776.230.020.02
HartfordAE0.040.0330.0029.21-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.040.0377.7876.970.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0330.0030.54-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.040.0382.1480.800.020.02
RutgersB100.040.0342.8642.31-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0358.3359.280.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.040.0339.2940.00-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0357.6958.130.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0342.8643.32-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.040.0318.5218.47-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.1546.47-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.040.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0364.0064.920.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0328.0030.82-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0367.8666.460.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0338.4639.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.8553.670.000.00
DenverSum0.040.0357.1456.680.010.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0377.7878.000.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0357.6957.760.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0337.5040.16-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0345.4546.74-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0342.8642.33-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0330.4330.06-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0350.0052.020.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0346.1546.04-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0342.3141.73-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0351.8551.810.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0357.1456.420.010.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.7440.82-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.040.0355.5656.300.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0360.8762.120.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0359.2662.740.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0351.8554.460.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.0023.78-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.3373.730.020.01
ButlerBE0.030.0378.5777.630.020.01
CreightonBE0.030.0377.7875.390.020.01
DuquesneA100.030.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0344.4443.95-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0355.5652.760.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0346.1546.22-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0355.5655.030.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6764.760.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0353.8554.870.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0359.2657.820.010.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0362.9661.410.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.0073.550.020.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.370.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0373.9175.160.020.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.1431.01-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0371.4371.760.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0370.3769.240.010.01