Middle Tennessee

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	28.0
Current RPI:	28
Expected SOS:	129
Current SOS:	129
Current Record:	28-5
Expected Record:	28-5
Current Conf Record:	20-2
Expected Conf Record:	20-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	15-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-0
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	15
Expected OOC SOS:	9

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
28-5	28.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	97-53	W	100%
11-13	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	55-58	W	100%
11-18	Florida (7.0)	SEC	N	66-45	L	0%
11-20	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	A	61-75	W	100%
11-24	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	79-52	W	100%
11-29	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	58-72	W	100%
12-2	Akron (43.0)	MAC	A	82-77	L	0%
12-5	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	H	84-64	W	100%
12-8	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	H	65-62	W	100%
12-13	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	64-49	L	0%
12-18	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	77-48	W	100%
12-21	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	N	56-52	W	100%
12-29	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	69-52	W	100%
12-31	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	75-57	W	100%
1-3	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	66-60	L	0%
1-5	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	56-60	W	100%
1-10	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	62-52	W	100%
1-12	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	57-66	W	100%
1-17	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	82-50	W	100%
1-19	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	82-60	W	100%
1-24	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	64-72	W	100%
1-26	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	72-53	W	100%
1-31	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	64-66	W	100%
2-2	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	56-73	W	100%
2-7	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	73-60	W	100%
2-9	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	93-41	W	100%
2-16	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	61-66	W	100%
2-21	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	85-50	W	100%
2-23	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	87-46	W	100%
2-28	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	56-66	W	100%
3-2	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	62-70	W	100%
3-9	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	N	81-66	W	100%
3-10	Florida International (111.0)	SB	N	57-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Middle Tennessee	SB	26.49	26.49	87.42	87.42	19.82	19.82
Florida International	SB	5.60	5.60	58.62	58.62	0.97	0.97
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	5.56	5.56	41.38	41.38	-0.96	-0.96
Western Kentucky	SB	4.26	4.26	59.38	59.38	0.80	0.80
Troy	SB	4.19	4.19	38.71	38.71	-0.95	-0.95
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.11	4.11	55.17	55.17	0.43	0.43
Arkansas St.	SB	4.10	4.10	60.71	60.71	0.88	0.88
South Alabama	SB	4.10	4.10	61.54	61.54	0.95	0.95
North Texas	SB	4.08	4.08	39.29	39.29	-0.88	-0.88
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.07	4.07	16.00	16.00	-2.77	-2.77
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.06	4.06	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.73	1.73	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.73	1.73	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
UAB	CUSA	1.72	1.72	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Central Florida	CUSA	1.66	1.66	64.29	64.29	0.47	0.47
Florida	SEC	1.66	1.66	78.12	78.12	0.93	0.93
Mississippi	SEC	1.66	1.66	78.79	78.79	0.95	0.95
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.65	1.65	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Belmont	OVC	1.62	1.62	79.31	79.31	0.95	0.95
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.59	1.59	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.58	1.58	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	1.54	1.54	80.00	80.00	0.92	0.92
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.21	0.21	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.20	0.20	80.65	80.65	0.12	0.12
Stetson	ASun	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.17	0.17	9.68	9.68	-0.14	-0.14
Murray St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.17	0.17	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Missouri	SEC	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Houston	CUSA	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.12	0.12	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.09	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.04	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.04	0.04	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.04	0.04	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00