Middle Tennessee

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	49.6
Current RPI:	44
Expected SOS:	191
Current SOS:	144
Current Record:	20-4
Expected Record:	25-4
Current Conf Record:	10-1
Expected Conf Record:	15-1
Probability of Auto Bid:	52.44%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	45
Expected OOC SOS:	114

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-4	45.2	64.70%
24-5	55.5	29.99%
23-6	67.9	4.89%
22-7	82.3	0.40%
21-8	92.0	0.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Austin Peay (200.2)	OVC	H	80-71	W	100%	0.0
11-13	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	A	51-58	W	100%	0.0
11-15	UCLA (109.2)	P12	A	66-86	W	100%	0.0
11-19	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	H	82-60	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	H	84-87	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Austin Peay (200.2)	OVC	A	70-90	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Tennessee St. (155.4)	OVC	A	62-77	W	100%	0.0
12-4	Akron (49.0)	MAC	H	77-53	W	100%	0.0
12-7	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	A	66-56	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	H	78-62	W	100%	0.0
12-13	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	H	65-62	W	100%	0.0
12-21	Mississippi (70.0)	SEC	N	56-68	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Florida International (212.8)	SB	H	71-66	W	100%	0.0
12-31	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	H	68-52	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Troy (274.9)	SB	A	53-63	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	H	65-53	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Florida International (212.8)	SB	A	59-70	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	A	54-67	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	59-46	W	100%	0.0
1-21	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	47-68	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	71-58	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Vanderbilt (31.5)	SEC	A	84-77	L	0%	0.0
2-2	North Texas (203.3)	SB	A	66-68	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	75-60	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	H	0-0		95%	18.2
2-11	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	H	0-0		92%	15.4
2-18	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	0-0		90%	13.8
2-23	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	0-0		96%	18.9
2-25	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	0-0		85%	11.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Middle Tennessee	SB	26.60	26.31	85.96	86.75	19.13	19.34
Troy	SB	4.79	4.22	31.58	32.69	-1.76	-1.46
Western Kentucky	SB	0.63	4.18	34.78	36.31	-0.19	-1.14
South Alabama	SB	4.70	4.16	57.89	57.28	0.74	0.61
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.57	4.14	38.10	42.38	-0.61	-0.63
Florida International	SB	4.50	4.14	36.84	40.13	-1.19	-0.82
Austin Peay	OVC	4.44	3.71	36.36	38.54	-1.21	-0.85
Belmont	ASun	4.40	3.66	71.43	74.94	1.88	1.83
Arkansas St.	SB	2.50	2.44	39.13	39.65	-0.54	-0.50
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.61	2.37	56.52	56.71	0.34	0.32
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.52	2.37	8.70	9.17	-0.43	-1.94
North Texas	SB	2.50	2.37	52.63	52.01	0.13	0.10
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.37	2.35	43.48	45.55	-0.05	-0.21
Denver	SB	2.46	2.35	69.57	71.24	0.96	1.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.44	2.02	59.09	55.07	0.44	0.20
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.35	1.96	4.55	10.00	-2.14	-1.57
UAB	CUSA	2.33	1.89	38.10	37.67	-0.55	-0.47
Mississippi	SEC	2.13	1.81	66.67	58.66	0.71	0.31
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.18	1.79	61.90	59.90	0.52	0.35
UCLA	P12	2.13	1.75	57.14	58.75	0.30	0.31
Vanderbilt	SEC	2.08	1.75	68.18	64.73	0.76	0.52
Akron	MAC	2.08	1.72	71.43	70.25	0.89	0.70
NC Greensboro	SC	2.08	1.72	36.36	34.66	-0.57	-0.53
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.48	0.40	78.26	72.34	0.27	0.18
Murray St.	OVC	0.27	0.35	100.00	94.55	0.27	0.32
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.29	0.25	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.20	0.24	59.09	57.28	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.28	0.24	30.00	34.15	-0.11	-0.08
Bowling Green	MAC	0.23	0.24	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.22	0.23	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.14	0.21	80.00	78.06	0.08	0.12
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.31	0.21	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.32	0.20	59.09	59.72	0.06	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.18	0.20	45.45	44.66	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.31	0.20	43.48	43.82	-0.04	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.24	0.18	85.71	82.18	0.17	0.12
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.19	0.18	80.77	80.75	0.11	0.11
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	34.78	38.42	-0.05	-0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.22	0.17	69.57	71.51	0.09	0.08
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.18	0.15	60.87	59.76	0.04	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.18	0.15	33.33	34.47	-0.06	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.15	78.26	72.66	0.08	0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.18	0.15	71.43	69.05	0.08	0.06
California	P12	0.18	0.14	75.00	74.61	0.09	0.07
Jacksonville	ASun	0.23	0.14	17.39	22.00	-0.15	-0.08
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.14	8.70	11.67	-0.07	-0.11
Southern Utah	Sum	0.20	0.13	45.45	44.30	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.13	33.33	33.82	-0.05	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.19	0.13	17.65	27.10	-0.12	-0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.19	0.13	72.73	71.71	0.09	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.15	0.13	76.00	72.50	0.08	0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.15	0.13	66.67	69.69	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.12	21.74	21.70	-0.05	-0.07
Miami FL	ACC	0.14	0.12	65.00	60.02	0.04	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.12	27.78	29.58	-0.00	-0.05
Washington	P12	0.09	0.12	69.57	66.54	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	0.12	60.87	59.05	0.00	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.18	0.12	26.32	29.71	-0.08	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.12	81.82	77.20	0.09	0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.12	40.91	39.56	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.11	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.11	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.18	0.11	45.83	46.68	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.11	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.11	31.82	31.31	-0.03	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.11	82.61	77.63	0.09	0.06
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.11	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.10
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.10	31.82	25.98	-0.06	-0.05
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.10	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.14	0.10	18.18	21.13	-0.09	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.10	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.09	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.04	0.09	25.00	23.75	-0.02	-0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.09	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.07	0.07
St. Louis	A10	0.14	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.07	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.09	31.82	33.83	-0.05	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.09	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.09	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.09	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.00	0.09	34.78	35.50	-0.00	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.09	9.52	11.44	-0.11	-0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.09	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.14	0.09	86.36	83.09	0.10	0.06
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.09	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.12	-0.08
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.09	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.09	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.08	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.07	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.07	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.06	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.10	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.04	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.04
Texas	B12	0.10	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.01	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.09	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.03	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.07	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.09	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.03	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.00	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.00	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.09	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.04	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.04	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.05	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.05	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.05	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.00	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.00	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.04	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.04	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.00	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.04	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.00	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.00	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.04	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.04	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.04	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.00	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.04	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.04	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.02	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.03	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.00	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.04	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01