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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Middle Tennessee

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:55.1
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:8
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:20
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-115.00.02%
28-215.90.12%
27-319.30.57%
26-423.12.44%
25-528.46.25%
24-635.212.27%
23-742.317.61%
22-851.520.04%
21-961.816.81%
20-1073.111.74%
19-1186.46.97%
18-1299.13.33%
17-13115.31.26%
16-14131.70.43%
15-15156.90.10%
14-16176.50.02%
13-17190.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Murray St. (139.5)OVCH87-81W100%0.0
11-19Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCH63-74L0%0.0
11-22Toledo (153.9)MACH80-70W100%0.0
11-25UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAN68-63W100%0.0
11-26Toledo (153.9)MACN73-70W100%0.0
11-27Evansville (205.3)MVCN66-55W100%0.0
11-30Mississippi (134.5)SECA62-77W100%0.0
12-3South Alabama (126.4)SBA0-057%2.2
12-8Vanderbilt (72.4)SECH0-052%0.7
12-14Belmont (122.5)OVCA0-052%0.5
12-17VCU (31.1)A10A0-022%-9.4
12-21Georgia St. (75.2)SBH0-062%3.7
1-1UAB (128.6)CUSAH0-068%5.8
1-5Rice (102.7)CUSAA0-049%-0.3
1-7North Texas (300.2)CUSAA0-086%13.0
1-12Marshall (88.7)CUSAH0-073%7.2
1-14Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAH0-090%15.7
1-19FIU (267.5)CUSAA0-077%8.9
1-21Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAA0-076%8.3
1-26Southern Miss (316.2)CUSAH0-096%21.5
1-28Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAH0-066%4.8
2-2UTSA (302.7)CUSAA0-084%12.1
2-4UTEP (255.5)CUSAA0-074%7.8
2-9Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAH0-066%4.8
2-11Charlotte (177.2)CUSAH0-082%10.8
2-16Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAA0-078%9.5
2-18Marshall (88.7)CUSAA0-053%1.0
2-26UAB (128.6)CUSAA0-049%-0.4
3-2FIU (267.5)CUSAH0-090%15.1
3-4Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAH0-089%14.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Middle TennesseeCUSA29.8526.2080.0073.1217.9112.11
UABCUSA0.004.0357.1463.400.001.08
MarshallCUSA0.004.0283.3361.210.000.90
FIUCUSA0.004.0016.6734.95-0.00-1.20
Western KentuckyCUSA0.004.0042.8635.46-0.00-1.16
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.003.9620.0035.71-0.00-1.13
ToledoMAC15.483.4560.0053.953.100.27
Old DominionCUSA0.002.4166.6766.890.000.81
UTSACUSA0.002.3728.5728.92-0.00-1.00
UTEPCUSA0.002.3725.0043.91-0.00-0.29
CharlotteCUSA0.002.3566.6752.300.000.11
Southern MissCUSA0.002.3333.3324.12-0.00-1.21
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.3140.0069.15-0.000.88
RiceCUSA0.002.3185.7169.650.000.91
North TexasCUSA0.002.3040.0031.43-0.00-0.86
South AlabamaSB0.001.8483.3361.800.000.43
BelmontOVC0.001.8440.0061.87-0.000.44
Tennessee St.OVC7.141.7980.0069.224.290.69
Murray St.OVC7.141.7850.0064.190.000.51
EvansvilleMVC8.761.7840.0041.83-1.75-0.29
VanderbiltSEC0.601.7657.1448.900.09-0.04
MississippiSEC7.141.7583.3347.544.76-0.09
Georgia St.SB0.001.7560.0068.510.000.65
UNC WilmingtonCAA8.761.75100.0079.838.761.04
VCUA100.001.6985.7178.150.000.95
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.600.3242.8646.78-0.09-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.600.2420.0041.93-0.36-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.510.2175.0054.320.260.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.2157.1447.320.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2040.0041.65-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1857.1440.590.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1850.0043.310.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1750.0045.410.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.1733.3332.23-0.00-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1771.4343.020.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.510.1733.3343.64-0.17-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.600.1716.6736.45-0.40-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1742.8645.30-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.17100.0080.780.000.10
AuburnSEC0.000.1783.3355.200.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.1680.0068.320.000.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1514.2928.66-0.00-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1550.0043.490.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1550.0071.330.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.510.150.0013.30-0.51-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1450.0056.430.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1483.3358.030.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.140.0028.15-0.00-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz1.020.1442.8637.60-0.15-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1487.5075.320.000.07
LSUSEC0.000.1471.4349.770.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.140.0019.51-0.00-0.08
MissouriSEC0.000.1350.0045.920.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1250.0038.430.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1220.0036.00-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1257.1440.550.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1285.7172.660.000.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1266.6761.340.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1257.1464.940.000.03
Green BayHorz0.510.1233.3348.71-0.17-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1220.0032.60-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz1.020.1271.4355.750.440.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1114.2934.56-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1166.6754.420.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1133.3346.81-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.1183.3369.840.000.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1150.0052.330.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1166.6756.360.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1150.0055.850.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.1150.0051.820.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.1157.1444.160.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA101.530.1150.0046.780.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0089.040.000.09
TennesseeSEC0.000.1125.0034.47-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0914.2933.07-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0928.5739.44-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.090.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0985.7168.390.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.510.0950.0066.170.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.0960.0057.900.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.510.0950.0046.670.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0985.7163.780.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.480.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.26-0.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0971.4370.330.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0942.8636.82-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0842.8640.94-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0850.0029.280.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0885.7155.550.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0825.0056.71-0.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
MassachusettsA100.510.0883.3358.080.340.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0850.0054.490.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0871.4349.590.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0866.6769.810.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0885.7159.740.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0857.1448.600.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0883.3362.840.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0866.6772.440.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.600.0614.2928.15-0.43-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.600.0637.5036.24-0.15-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.600.060.0032.39-0.60-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.600.0685.7175.950.430.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0550.0051.260.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.050.0038.26-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6770.740.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0528.5733.92-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0557.1442.940.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0566.6754.380.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0024.32-0.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.630.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.600.0333.3341.52-0.20-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.600.0357.1448.410.09-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.510.0371.4356.050.220.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.600.0383.3380.700.400.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
CreightonBE0.510.03100.0076.650.510.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
MontanaBSky0.510.0314.2947.44-0.36-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.510.030.0019.30-0.51-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01