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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Middle Tennessee

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:138.0
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:134
Current Record:18-16
Expected Record:18-16
Current Conf Record:12-10
Expected Conf Record:12-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:147
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-16138.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Murray St. (63.0)OVCH49-68L0%0.0
11-22Southern (223.0)SWACH66-48W100%0.0
11-25Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH65-53W100%0.0
11-28Cincinnati (37.0)AmerN69-51L0%0.0
11-29Creighton (151.0)BEN57-47L0%0.0
12-2Belmont (105.0)OVCA63-59L0%0.0
12-6South Alabama (275.0)SBA67-68W100%0.0
12-13Akron (115.0)MACA61-62W100%0.0
12-16Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A68-44L0%0.0
12-19Chattanooga (112.0)SCH68-58W100%0.0
12-21Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH65-47W100%0.0
12-29Auburn (129.0)SECA64-48L0%0.0
1-4UAB (130.0)CUSAH49-54L0%0.0
1-8FIU (217.0)CUSAH65-52W100%0.0
1-10Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH82-58W100%0.0
1-15Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA61-62W100%0.0
1-17Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA75-68L0%0.0
1-22Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAH68-58W100%0.0
1-24Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH72-69W100%0.0
1-29UTSA (237.0)CUSAA69-58L0%0.0
1-31UTEP (78.0)CUSAA83-70L0%0.0
2-5Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH61-51W100%0.0
2-7Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH62-73L0%0.0
2-12Rice (247.0)CUSAA71-68L0%0.0
2-14North Texas (224.0)CUSAA57-56L0%0.0
2-19Marshall (296.0)CUSAH90-51W100%0.0
2-22Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH68-66W100%0.0
2-28UAB (130.0)CUSAA100-95L0%0.0
3-5FIU (217.0)CUSAA59-54L0%0.0
3-7Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAA54-77W100%0.0
3-11Charlotte (211.0)CUSAN63-60W100%0.0
3-12Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAN52-59W100%0.0
3-13UTEP (78.0)CUSAN50-53W100%0.0
3-14UAB (130.0)CUSAN73-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Middle TennesseeCUSA26.2926.2953.5253.521.851.85
UABCUSA5.185.1850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA3.743.7473.3373.331.741.74
FIUCUSA3.673.6744.8344.83-0.38-0.38
UTEPCUSA3.653.6570.0070.001.461.46
Southern MissCUSA3.633.6328.0028.00-1.60-1.60
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.583.5828.0028.00-1.58-1.58
CharlotteCUSA3.583.5846.6746.67-0.24-0.24
Old DominionCUSA3.573.5782.7682.762.342.34
Western KentuckyCUSA2.342.3462.0762.070.560.56
MarshallCUSA2.252.2531.0331.03-0.85-0.85
UTSACUSA2.252.2540.7440.74-0.42-0.42
North TexasCUSA2.242.2439.2939.29-0.48-0.48
RiceCUSA2.242.2432.1432.14-0.80-0.80
BelmontOVC1.591.5966.6766.670.530.53
Murray St.OVC1.571.5782.7682.761.031.03
Tennessee St.OVC1.541.5410.7110.71-1.21-1.21
SouthernSWAC1.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC1.541.5468.9768.970.580.58
South AlabamaSB1.531.5333.3333.33-0.51-0.51
Northern ArizonaBSky1.521.5258.0658.060.250.25
CreightonBE1.501.5040.6240.62-0.28-0.28
Oklahoma St.B121.501.5055.1755.170.150.15
AkronMAC1.501.5060.6160.610.320.32
AuburnSEC1.471.4739.3939.39-0.31-0.31
CincinnatiAmer1.471.4767.7467.740.520.52
Morehead St.OVC0.310.3146.8846.88-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.210.2134.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
XavierBE0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Miami FLACC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
StetsonASun0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Texas TechB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
SamfordSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
TempleAmer0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
TulsaAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
WisconsinB100.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0762.9662.960.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0494.1294.120.040.04
KentuckySEC0.040.04100.00100.000.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00