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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Middle Tennessee

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:187.0
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:150
Current SOS:334
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:194
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-532.00.01%
22-740.00.02%
21-866.30.07%
20-977.20.39%
19-1089.40.97%
18-11102.22.29%
17-12118.55.10%
16-13136.18.47%
15-14152.612.19%
14-15171.514.91%
13-16190.616.47%
12-17209.114.80%
11-18227.410.91%
10-19245.67.07%
9-20262.54.04%
8-21280.81.55%
7-22293.80.54%
6-23310.50.15%
5-24321.00.03%
4-25314.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Murray St. (130.8)OVCH49-68L0%0.0
11-22Southern (280.1)SWACH66-48W100%0.0
11-25Northern Arizona (161.7)BSkyH0-057%2.2
11-28Cincinnati (79.3)AmerN0-028%-7.0
12-2Belmont (82.5)OVCA0-019%-10.6
12-6South Alabama (236.8)SBA0-051%0.3
12-13Akron (76.2)MACA0-018%-10.8
12-16Oklahoma St. (70.8)B12A0-013%-13.4
12-19Chattanooga (240.3)SCH0-073%7.2
12-21Tennessee St. (304.5)OVCH0-084%11.7
12-29Auburn (208.9)SECA0-039%-3.5
1-4UAB (192.0)CUSAH0-062%3.5
1-8FIU (205.4)CUSAH0-068%5.7
1-10Florida Atlantic (252.0)CUSAH0-072%6.9
1-15Southern Miss (138.7)CUSAA0-030%-6.3
1-17Louisiana Tech (72.0)CUSAA0-016%-11.8
1-22Old Dominion (75.4)CUSAH0-036%-4.3
1-24Charlotte (79.8)CUSAH0-039%-3.4
1-29UTSA (253.7)CUSAA0-050%0.0
1-31UTEP (86.6)CUSAA0-019%-10.4
2-5Southern Miss (138.7)CUSAH0-053%0.9
2-7Louisiana Tech (72.0)CUSAH0-035%-4.6
2-12Rice (272.7)CUSAA0-060%3.0
2-14North Texas (226.6)CUSAA0-048%-0.5
2-19Marshall (156.3)CUSAH0-055%1.6
2-22Western Kentucky (179.0)CUSAH0-060%3.1
2-28UAB (192.0)CUSAA0-038%-3.6
3-5FIU (205.4)CUSAA0-045%-1.5
3-7Florida Atlantic (252.0)CUSAA0-049%-0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Middle TennesseeCUSA33.3326.1930.0045.01-13.33-2.62
UABCUSA0.004.2133.3341.91-0.00-0.68
Louisiana TechCUSA4.174.1680.0071.862.501.82
Southern MissCUSA0.004.1550.0053.920.000.32
FIUCUSA0.004.1350.0043.580.00-0.53
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.004.120.0035.90-0.00-1.16
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.5233.3343.34-0.00-0.33
UTSACUSA0.002.4950.0036.900.00-0.65
MarshallCUSA0.002.4866.6751.420.000.07
UTEPCUSA0.002.46100.0069.870.000.98
North TexasCUSA0.002.4366.6738.240.00-0.57
CharlotteCUSA0.002.4075.0065.750.000.76
Old DominionCUSA0.002.4080.0075.360.001.22
RiceCUSA0.002.3933.3327.22-0.00-1.09
BelmontOVC0.001.8575.0071.650.000.80
Murray St.OVC25.001.820.0067.47-25.000.63
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.820.0027.84-0.00-0.81
SouthernSWAC25.001.810.0040.97-25.00-0.33
South AlabamaSB0.001.790.0038.97-0.00-0.39
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.7925.0058.26-0.000.30
ChattanoogaSC0.001.790.0047.60-0.00-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.001.75100.0054.620.000.16
AkronMAC0.001.7575.0069.180.000.67
AuburnSEC0.001.7250.0031.590.00-0.63
CincinnatiAmer0.001.72100.0058.300.000.29
Morehead St.OVC0.000.3320.0053.69-0.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.2425.0040.65-0.00-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.22100.0060.950.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.2160.0056.290.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1866.6745.370.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.180.0033.20-0.00-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.160.0040.20-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1575.0056.780.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.150.0033.26-0.00-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.1533.3363.19-0.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.150.0037.06-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1540.0050.01-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.150.0039.88-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0031.92-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.12100.0057.580.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.1275.0058.190.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.120.0033.27-0.00-0.04
TroySB0.000.120.0044.74-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.120.0043.29-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.120.0032.95-0.00-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1233.3343.01-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1250.0032.210.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1266.6745.370.00-0.01
HoustonAmer4.170.12100.0063.824.170.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.120.0031.81-0.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.12100.0047.530.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1250.0066.020.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1220.0025.79-0.00-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1250.0062.790.000.03
MississippiSEC4.170.1275.0055.662.080.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1266.6757.340.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0081.370.000.08
SamfordSC0.000.1240.0039.62-0.00-0.02
XavierBE4.170.12100.0080.244.170.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1250.0050.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.1150.0052.920.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0078.600.000.07
MercerSC0.000.0933.3352.75-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.09100.0079.170.000.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0950.0043.250.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0043.12-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.09100.0070.100.000.04
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0067.390.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0016.93-0.00-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0940.0050.60-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.620.000.06
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.47-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0966.6748.390.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0019.76-0.00-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.0920.0044.69-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.56-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0070.420.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0920.0029.26-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0966.6751.260.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0950.0043.080.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0933.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0040.87-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.09100.0058.710.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0950.0066.640.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0029.60-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0055.630.000.01
VCUA100.000.0975.0067.590.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.290.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0026.270.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0950.0065.370.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0980.0043.930.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0060.870.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6745.890.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0035.62-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.730.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.63-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0066.65-0.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0059.320.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.84-0.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0031.710.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3328.67-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0029.61-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6746.440.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0064.44-0.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0059.940.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6757.950.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3323.97-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.03-0.00-0.04
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0675.0057.780.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6762.260.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0070.800.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6758.810.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0026.64-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.12-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0633.3337.04-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0633.3354.64-0.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.960.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.590.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0035.54-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0041.580.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0050.840.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3365.20-0.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.930.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3334.36-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.49-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0074.040.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0040.470.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.35-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0045.75-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0043.39-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0050.64-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0049.160.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0045.970.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.640.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0056.390.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0053.38-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0666.6766.030.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.920.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.480.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.270.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.130.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0666.6732.480.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.97-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0022.70-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.360.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0065.950.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6753.220.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.66-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.93-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0074.960.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.710.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.650.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0039.25-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.14-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.110.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0022.57-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.130.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.26-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0366.6764.880.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0025.30-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.57-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0360.0050.930.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.930.000.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0066.670.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3339.78-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0051.040.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0042.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.880.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0065.66-0.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.490.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.230.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0066.880.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0051.710.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6756.740.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0350.0054.870.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0375.0074.330.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6768.660.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0031.48-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.25-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0046.080.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0034.020.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0087.980.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3326.24-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.400.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.67-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0021.27-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0042.95-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0320.0027.91-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3347.25-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6756.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.470.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.48-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.31-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.140.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.170.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0029.05-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.790.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0059.10-0.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0021.70-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0316.6730.01-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3340.10-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.810.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.16-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0043.380.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0084.910.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3344.46-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0038.08-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.180.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0340.0028.54-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0042.28-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3333.50-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.80-0.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6774.460.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.740.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0051.910.000.00