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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Middle Tennessee

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:64.0
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:125
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:91
Expected OOC SOS:109



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-964.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Southern (171.0)SWACH78-75W100%0.0
11-13North Florida (189.0)ASunH77-70W100%0.0
11-16Akron (93.0)MACH80-73W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH76-59W100%0.0
11-21Florida (1.0)SECA79-59L0%0.0
11-26Murray St. (142.0)OVCA62-80W100%0.0
11-30South Alabama (280.0)SBH65-55W100%0.0
12-3Belmont (57.0)OVCH58-70L0%0.0
12-14Mississippi (94.0)SECA72-63L0%0.0
12-21Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA69-48L0%0.0
12-29Maine (330.0)AEN89-85L0%0.0
12-30Grand Canyon (203.0)WACN79-56W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA66-74W100%0.0
1-11UAB (152.0)CUSAH89-84W100%0.0
1-16UTEP (103.0)CUSAH54-63L0%0.0
1-18UTSA (306.0)CUSAH80-58W100%0.0
1-23Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA58-53L0%0.0
1-25North Texas (195.0)CUSAA63-70W100%0.0
1-30East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH84-67W100%0.0
2-1Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH64-48W100%0.0
2-6Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA63-67W100%0.0
2-8FIU (202.0)CUSAA68-70W100%0.0
2-13Tulane (223.0)CUSAH71-44W100%0.0
2-15Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH81-64W100%0.0
2-20Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA49-71W100%0.0
2-22Marshall (276.0)CUSAA53-56W100%0.0
2-27Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA55-39L0%0.0
3-1Rice (299.0)CUSAH65-41W100%0.0
3-6UAB (152.0)CUSAA53-55W100%0.0
3-13Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAN62-48W100%0.0
3-14Tulsa (73.0)CUSAN76-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Middle TennesseeCUSA25.9825.9872.3472.3411.6111.61
TulsaCUSA3.793.7961.2961.290.860.86
Old DominionCUSA3.743.7451.6151.610.120.12
UABCUSA3.673.6759.2659.260.680.68
Louisiana TechCUSA2.222.2278.1278.121.251.25
Southern MissCUSA2.202.2083.3383.331.461.46
TulaneCUSA2.202.2051.6151.610.070.07
MarshallCUSA2.192.1930.0030.00-0.88-0.88
CharlotteCUSA2.172.1756.6756.670.290.29
East CarolinaCUSA2.172.1746.4346.43-0.15-0.15
North TexasCUSA2.172.1746.4346.43-0.15-0.15
UTEPCUSA2.152.1566.6766.670.720.72
RiceCUSA2.142.1418.5218.52-1.35-1.35
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.122.1227.5927.59-0.95-0.95
UTSACUSA2.112.1123.0823.08-1.14-1.14
FIUCUSA2.092.0948.1548.15-0.08-0.08
Arkansas Little RockSB1.821.8244.8344.83-0.19-0.19
SouthernSWAC1.741.7457.1457.140.250.25
South AlabamaSB1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
FloridaSEC1.721.7293.9493.941.511.51
Murray St.OVC1.711.7161.5461.540.400.40
BelmontOVC1.701.7070.9770.970.710.71
Tennessee St.OVC1.691.6914.2914.29-1.21-1.21
North FloridaASun1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC1.661.6648.0048.00-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC1.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
MississippiSEC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
CincinnatiAmer1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
MaineAE1.611.6114.8114.81-1.14-1.14
Georgia St.SB0.270.2774.1974.190.130.13
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.2270.9770.970.090.09
TroySB0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckySB0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.200.2041.1841.18-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
LipscombASun0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.1634.6234.62-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
KentuckySEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Texas St.SB0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01