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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Middle Tennessee

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:197.5
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:184
Current SOS:174
Current Record:5-5
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-989.60.12%
20-10101.70.42%
19-11117.21.46%
18-12132.03.65%
17-13148.58.06%
16-14166.213.77%
15-15184.218.73%
14-16202.919.01%
13-17221.516.52%
12-18239.810.20%
11-19258.35.19%
10-20274.51.97%
9-21289.00.74%
8-22296.10.12%
7-23311.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Murray St. (162.7)OVCH49-68L0%0.0
11-22Southern (308.5)SWACH66-48W100%0.0
11-25Northern Arizona (229.6)BSkyH65-53W100%0.0
11-28Cincinnati (50.9)AmerN69-51L0%0.0
11-29Creighton (114.2)BEN57-47L0%0.0
12-2Belmont (132.6)OVCA63-59L0%0.0
12-6South Alabama (265.3)SBA67-68W100%0.0
12-13Akron (153.9)MACA61-62W100%0.0
12-16Oklahoma St. (28.6)B12A68-44L0%0.0
12-19Chattanooga (214.2)SCH68-58W100%0.0
12-21Tennessee St. (331.4)OVCH0-088%14.1
12-29Auburn (186.5)SECA0-029%-6.5
1-4UAB (230.3)CUSAH0-067%5.1
1-8FIU (157.2)CUSAH0-057%2.2
1-10Florida Atlantic (174.7)CUSAH0-058%2.3
1-15Southern Miss (286.2)CUSAA0-060%3.0
1-17Louisiana Tech (116.8)CUSAA0-017%-11.2
1-22Old Dominion (46.3)CUSAH0-029%-6.4
1-24Charlotte (88.2)CUSAH0-039%-3.2
1-29UTSA (263.5)CUSAA0-044%-1.8
1-31UTEP (67.5)CUSAA0-011%-14.2
2-5Southern Miss (286.2)CUSAH0-084%11.7
2-7Louisiana Tech (116.8)CUSAH0-042%-2.5
2-12Rice (282.8)CUSAA0-049%-0.4
2-14North Texas (242.4)CUSAA0-044%-1.7
2-19Marshall (219.5)CUSAH0-061%3.3
2-22Western Kentucky (153.6)CUSAH0-057%2.0
2-28UAB (230.3)CUSAA0-038%-3.6
3-5FIU (157.2)CUSAA0-029%-6.5
3-7Florida Atlantic (174.7)CUSAA0-029%-6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Middle TennesseeCUSA27.7526.1650.0047.520.00-1.29
UABCUSA0.004.0730.0036.17-0.00-1.13
Louisiana TechCUSA0.314.0172.7367.180.141.38
Southern MissCUSA0.424.0042.8626.86-0.06-1.85
FIUCUSA0.003.9844.4450.40-0.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.003.9750.0051.760.000.14
Western KentuckyCUSA0.532.4255.5650.010.060.00
UTSACUSA0.232.4042.8637.01-0.03-0.62
MarshallCUSA0.002.3925.0038.64-0.00-0.54
UTEPCUSA0.002.3760.0070.690.000.98
North TexasCUSA0.282.3642.8636.26-0.04-0.65
CharlotteCUSA0.002.3160.0063.610.000.63
Old DominionCUSA0.002.3190.0082.170.001.49
RiceCUSA0.002.3116.6725.76-0.00-1.12
BelmontOVC5.001.7855.5660.550.560.38
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.760.0015.31-0.00-1.22
Murray St.OVC5.001.7550.0060.500.000.37
SouthernSWAC5.231.750.0035.26-5.23-0.52
South AlabamaSB5.001.730.0036.65-5.00-0.46
Northern ArizonaBSky5.311.7340.0049.21-1.06-0.03
ChattanoogaSC5.001.7244.4451.55-0.560.05
CreightonBE5.001.7072.7350.152.270.01
Oklahoma St.B125.001.7087.5062.593.750.43
AkronMAC5.001.7066.6758.111.670.27
AuburnSEC0.001.6744.4434.70-0.00-0.51
CincinnatiAmer5.001.6775.0067.942.500.60
Morehead St.OVC0.280.3116.6737.98-0.19-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.2316.6744.58-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.2150.0068.680.000.08
LSUSEC0.000.2080.0064.030.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.800.2033.3339.29-0.27-0.04
XavierBE0.510.1980.0070.970.300.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1855.5637.870.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.1844.4449.69-0.03-0.00
MississippiSEC1.030.1770.0052.530.410.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1522.2230.55-0.00-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.000.1562.5071.350.000.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.150.0039.69-0.28-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.250.1562.5059.500.060.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1442.8652.90-0.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.530.1466.6766.120.180.05
StetsonASun0.000.1210.0027.15-0.00-0.05
TroySB0.000.1233.3339.50-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.120.0023.36-0.00-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1244.4446.81-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1262.5067.130.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.1266.6754.650.000.01
TCUB120.000.12100.0066.920.000.04
LipscombASun0.500.1222.2238.12-0.28-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.500.1260.0057.640.100.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.280.120.0028.56-0.28-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0085.970.000.08
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1237.5038.43-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.1255.5634.700.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1290.0055.490.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1166.6762.500.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.1136.3633.52-0.07-0.04
HoustonAmer0.280.1171.4347.640.12-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1166.6764.740.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1133.3345.26-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1133.3331.23-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.250.1180.0072.370.150.05
Miami FLACC0.670.1181.8266.320.420.04
TulsaAmer0.490.1160.0056.900.100.02
TempleAmer0.000.1163.6455.560.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0922.2240.60-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0940.0028.84-0.00-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.0955.5656.260.030.01
ElonCAA0.000.0937.5047.90-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.210.0933.3341.24-0.07-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0944.4444.53-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0990.0081.650.000.06
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0050.060.000.00
Oregon St.P120.280.0977.7855.570.150.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0028.67-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0910.0018.50-0.00-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0954.5544.640.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0914.2929.35-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3345.98-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0990.0073.800.000.04
Iowa St.B120.310.0988.8963.400.240.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0990.0067.450.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0975.0067.160.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0018.32-0.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.250.0942.8637.74-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.0918.1838.45-0.16-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0945.4550.81-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0911.1144.75-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.250.0870.0071.450.100.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0837.5034.46-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.210.0877.7867.320.120.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0844.4431.92-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.250.0890.9188.540.200.06
Penn St.B100.250.0890.9153.570.200.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0860.0064.140.000.02
ToledoMAC0.230.0860.0058.890.050.01
MemphisAmer0.280.0855.5660.240.030.02
TulaneAmer0.310.0888.8955.090.240.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0881.8264.670.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0844.4444.86-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0814.2945.11-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.710.0844.4469.77-0.080.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0866.6759.590.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.890.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.22-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0036.23-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.430.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.530.0677.7871.170.290.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.650.000.01
MinnesotaB100.310.0680.0066.580.190.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.770.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.11-0.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.37-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.89-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.140.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.00-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.590.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.52-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.009.00-0.00-0.05
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.810.000.00
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.210.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.150.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.60-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3665.17-0.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0620.0045.49-0.17-0.01
The CitadelSC0.250.0616.6730.30-0.17-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2237.12-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.800.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.500.000.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.93-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0041.08-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.790.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.210.060.0011.34-0.21-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.280.0633.3355.14-0.090.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.0657.1470.410.040.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.0633.3334.61-0.09-0.02
RichmondA100.420.0655.5657.270.050.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0655.5645.620.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.310.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0064.750.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7870.500.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0612.5032.33-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0059.530.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.56-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0072.100.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0032.93-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0628.5757.14-0.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0036.84-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0650.0041.650.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.14-0.00-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8642.46-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6758.330.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.880.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.230.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.44-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5055.010.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0024.34-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.440.0562.5057.080.110.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0550.0057.700.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.020.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0560.0049.590.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.490.0566.6744.280.16-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0572.7353.500.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.320.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0570.0071.300.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0588.8964.830.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0081.870.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.24-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2933.59-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0059.930.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.59-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.66-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.250.0345.4554.26-0.020.00
DrakeMVC0.280.0320.0020.26-0.17-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4440.07-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.800.000.01
PortlandWCC0.280.0366.6748.270.09-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.440.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.530.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.280.0380.0070.970.170.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.300.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.72-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.490.000.02
DetroitHorz0.420.0344.4448.82-0.05-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.760.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.48-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.680.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0320.0027.11-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.370.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.05-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3641.21-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.250.0333.3343.01-0.08-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.420.0375.0057.990.210.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3340.96-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.0330.0039.58-0.10-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.58-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.79-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.760.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.400.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.540.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5737.33-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.250.0328.5746.99-0.11-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.370.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0044.120.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.620.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.67-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.270.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0360.0075.470.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.230.0330.0029.59-0.09-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.60-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0026.38-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5050.55-0.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0095.110.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.230.0325.0023.09-0.11-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.31-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.610.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0051.83-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.76-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0337.5038.31-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.0354.5559.120.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.87-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.250.0310.0020.97-0.20-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.800.000.00
USCP120.250.0360.0036.070.05-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.250.0337.5031.81-0.06-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0325.0044.57-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.210.030.0017.19-0.21-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0045.370.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.810.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.380.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.830.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.280.0370.0073.030.110.01
South DakotaSum0.210.0327.2738.75-0.09-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.280.0350.0062.120.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.57-0.00-0.01