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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Middle Tennessee

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:34.0
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:152
Current Record:29-4
Expected Record:29-4
Current Conf Record:20-1
Expected Conf Record:20-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:26
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-434.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Murray St. (230.0)OVCH87-81W100%0.0
11-19Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH63-74L0%0.0
11-22Toledo (155.0)MACH80-70W100%0.0
11-25UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAN68-63W100%0.0
11-26Toledo (155.0)MACN73-70W100%0.0
11-27Evansville (188.0)MVCN66-55W100%0.0
11-30Mississippi (77.0)SECA62-77W100%0.0
12-3South Alabama (231.0)SBA55-67W100%0.0
12-8Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH71-48W100%0.0
12-14Belmont (61.0)OVCA66-79W100%0.0
12-17VCU (22.0)A10A80-77L0%0.0
12-21Georgia St. (104.0)SBH56-64L0%0.0
1-1UAB (201.0)CUSAH60-49W100%0.0
1-5Rice (167.0)CUSAA77-80W100%0.0
1-7North Texas (339.0)CUSAA68-79W100%0.0
1-12Marshall (112.0)CUSAH69-57W100%0.0
1-14Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH91-76W100%0.0
1-19FIU (338.0)CUSAA52-65W100%0.0
1-21Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA57-86W100%0.0
1-26Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH72-56W100%0.0
1-28Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH71-61W100%0.0
2-2UTSA (264.0)CUSAA59-69W100%0.0
2-4UTEP (222.0)CUSAA57-54L0%0.0
2-9Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH64-51W100%0.0
2-11Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH70-55W100%0.0
2-16Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA52-78W100%0.0
2-18Marshall (112.0)CUSAA86-97W100%0.0
2-26UAB (201.0)CUSAA64-66W100%0.0
3-2FIU (338.0)CUSAH70-67W100%0.0
3-4Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH93-59W100%0.0
3-9UTSA (264.0)CUSAN86-70W100%0.0
3-10UTEP (222.0)CUSAN82-56W100%0.0
3-11Marshall (112.0)CUSAN83-72W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Middle TennesseeCUSA26.2926.2987.7387.7319.8419.84
MarshallCUSA5.295.2961.2961.291.201.20
UABCUSA3.773.7753.3353.330.250.25
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.763.7630.7730.77-1.45-1.45
UTSACUSA3.753.7541.3841.38-0.65-0.65
Western KentuckyCUSA3.743.7450.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA3.733.7344.8344.83-0.39-0.39
FIUCUSA3.723.7218.5218.52-2.34-2.34
ToledoMAC3.153.1553.3353.330.210.21
Old DominionCUSA2.322.3263.3363.330.620.62
Louisiana TechCUSA2.302.3070.0070.000.920.92
CharlotteCUSA2.242.2442.8642.86-0.32-0.32
Southern MissCUSA2.232.2325.0025.00-1.12-1.12
RiceCUSA2.212.2166.6766.670.740.74
North TexasCUSA2.132.1322.2222.22-1.18-1.18
South AlabamaSB1.671.6741.3841.38-0.29-0.29
BelmontOVC1.661.6680.7780.771.021.02
Tennessee St.OVC1.621.6251.8551.850.060.06
Murray St.OVC1.621.6246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
EvansvilleMVC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
VanderbiltSEC1.591.5957.5857.580.240.24
Georgia St.SB1.591.5958.6258.620.270.27
MississippiSEC1.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.591.5987.1087.101.181.18
VCUA101.541.5475.7675.760.790.79
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.300.3034.4834.48-0.09-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.250.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
OhioMAC0.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.170.1758.8258.820.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
FloridaSEC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
AuburnSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
MissouriSEC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1344.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.126.906.90-0.11-0.11
James MadisonCAA0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01