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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Middle Tennessee

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:79.1
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:138
Current SOS:144
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:8-2
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:29



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-645.13.19%
21-757.014.96%
20-869.027.37%
19-982.128.61%
18-1096.717.40%
17-11113.66.83%
16-12132.41.40%
15-13150.70.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Murray St. (170.9)OVCA76-65L0%0.0
11-21Tennessee St. (176.0)OVCA66-69W100%0.0
11-27UNC Asheville (139.0)BSthN61-63W100%0.0
11-28Toledo (162.3)MACN78-70W100%0.0
12-2VCU (30.0)A10H56-62L0%0.0
12-5South Alabama (251.0)SBH68-55W100%0.0
12-12Auburn (156.6)SECH88-81W100%0.0
12-17Belmont (68.5)OVCH83-62W100%0.0
12-22Georgia St. (137.2)SBA64-62L0%0.0
12-27South Dakota St. (42.8)SumN65-61L0%0.0
1-3UAB (93.6)CUSAA78-67L0%0.0
1-7UTEP (244.4)CUSAH78-72W100%0.0
1-9UTSA (340.4)CUSAH79-71W100%0.0
1-14Charlotte (231.0)CUSAA72-73W100%0.0
1-16Old Dominion (145.4)CUSAA61-64W100%0.0
1-21North Texas (309.6)CUSAH86-64W100%0.0
1-23Rice (297.3)CUSAH87-73W100%0.0
1-28Marshall (132.8)CUSAA82-66L0%0.0
1-30Western Kentucky (165.8)CUSAA64-66W100%0.0
2-4Florida Atlantic (275.9)CUSAH85-73W100%0.0
2-6FIU (226.8)CUSAH0-079%8.8
2-11Louisiana Tech (118.2)CUSAA0-041%-2.4
2-13Southern Miss (290.4)CUSAA0-078%8.3
2-21UAB (93.6)CUSAH0-058%2.1
2-25Western Kentucky (165.8)CUSAH0-075%7.3
2-27Marshall (132.8)CUSAH0-068%5.0
3-3Florida Atlantic (275.9)CUSAA0-074%6.9
3-5FIU (226.8)CUSAA0-058%2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Middle TennesseeCUSA26.1926.1672.0970.4211.5710.68
UABCUSA3.104.3680.9578.821.922.51
Western KentuckyCUSA3.024.2650.0050.590.000.05
MarshallCUSA2.974.2445.4549.48-0.27-0.04
FIUCUSA0.464.2442.8647.01-0.07-0.25
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.844.2425.0029.43-1.42-1.74
Old DominionCUSA2.912.5757.1464.010.420.72
UTEPCUSA2.862.5252.3851.760.140.09
UTSACUSA2.862.5215.0014.47-2.00-1.79
Southern MissCUSA0.482.5133.3334.08-0.16-0.80
CharlotteCUSA2.792.5138.1043.59-0.66-0.32
RiceCUSA2.972.4826.3229.20-1.41-1.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.352.4675.0072.700.181.11
North TexasCUSA2.912.4531.5830.51-1.07-0.96
BelmontOVC2.741.9872.7372.531.250.89
Georgia St.SB2.681.9758.8256.700.470.26
South AlabamaSB2.691.9536.8436.18-0.71-0.54
Tennessee St.OVC2.611.8868.4263.150.960.49
Murray St.OVC2.621.8545.0051.10-0.260.04
AuburnSEC2.561.8545.0038.48-0.26-0.43
VCUA102.561.8176.1976.001.340.94
South Dakota St.Sum2.501.7975.0075.331.250.90
ToledoMAC2.501.7960.0059.540.500.34
UNC AshevilleBSth2.501.7966.6767.900.830.64
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.300.3450.0046.870.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.2545.4547.97-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.170.2552.3854.240.010.02
TroySB0.250.2520.0023.76-0.15-0.13
UT ArlingtonSB0.310.2565.0068.750.090.09
TennesseeSEC0.290.2450.0048.260.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.230.2226.0925.56-0.11-0.11
Texas St.SB0.320.1941.1840.28-0.06-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.1938.1042.99-0.05-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.110.1869.5768.670.040.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1666.6765.410.060.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1657.8961.920.020.04
Illinois St.MVC0.240.1652.1747.620.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1636.8437.30-0.05-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.190.1627.2730.43-0.09-0.06
LipscombASun0.230.1621.7427.64-0.13-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1334.7837.55-0.04-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1318.1822.83-0.11-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1314.2916.31-0.13-0.09
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1390.0086.120.110.09
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1345.0041.83-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1340.0044.95-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.130.1325.0029.75-0.06-0.05
IUPUISum0.190.1341.6740.25-0.03-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.1340.9143.01-0.01-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.240.1275.0073.480.120.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.1245.0049.60-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.130.1263.6456.050.040.01
ElonCAA0.110.1254.5553.020.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.240.1240.9139.22-0.04-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.1250.0050.510.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.120.1228.5728.88-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1266.6760.120.040.02
OhioMAC0.180.1260.0057.960.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.170.1257.1457.510.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.1061.9060.410.010.02
Weber St.BSky0.180.1068.4271.820.070.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.0935.2944.50-0.04-0.01
DenverSum0.180.0952.1748.790.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.0957.8957.330.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0957.1452.310.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0960.0056.080.010.01
CampbellBSth0.110.0930.0030.38-0.05-0.04
LibertyBSth0.110.0931.8232.92-0.04-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.0952.3853.620.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.0922.7323.37-0.09-0.05
DetroitHorz0.120.0945.0044.39-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0921.0523.70-0.03-0.05
XavierBE0.120.0990.9184.430.100.06
DuquesneA100.120.0966.6758.760.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.120.0945.4541.98-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.120.0968.1863.250.040.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0968.1869.350.020.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0926.3236.93-0.03-0.02
AkronMAC0.110.0981.8279.750.070.05
DavidsonA100.110.0957.8955.400.020.01
RichmondA100.110.0952.3853.680.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.130.0754.5555.190.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0673.9176.040.050.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0616.6720.71-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0650.0056.540.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.0622.7324.28-0.06-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0659.0958.550.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0625.0029.29-0.06-0.03
IPFWSum0.060.0673.9170.210.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.110.0619.0522.35-0.07-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0659.0959.470.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0626.3227.34-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0639.1339.48-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0665.0063.370.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0627.7829.23-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.0633.3334.18-0.04-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.0655.5650.840.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0681.8281.010.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.0622.7326.19-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.120.0660.8759.050.030.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0622.7324.85-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0668.1865.420.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0654.5555.310.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0650.0050.860.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0681.8277.490.040.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0682.6181.380.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0647.8348.69-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.130.0640.9143.37-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0082.460.040.04
UCFAmer0.060.0655.0047.170.01-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0680.9583.050.070.04
FurmanSC0.110.0654.5553.780.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.110.0656.5253.460.010.00
LSUSEC0.120.0663.6459.440.030.01
New MexicoMWC0.120.0663.6464.090.030.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.0647.3750.51-0.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.064.7614.01-0.05-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0626.3233.83-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0661.9058.190.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0638.8943.22-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0647.8344.51-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0663.6468.210.030.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0645.0042.81-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0620.8320.11-0.03-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0668.7574.730.020.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0623.8125.03-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.0962.730.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0652.1747.250.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0635.0036.57-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0638.1047.51-0.03-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0626.0930.33-0.06-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0636.3635.33-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0677.2771.670.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0681.8281.010.030.04
MarylandB100.050.0686.9681.770.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.060.0654.5555.990.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.0681.8277.440.070.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0638.1033.38-0.01-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0681.8278.720.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0640.9140.46-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0372.7368.010.030.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0331.8234.36-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0361.9062.050.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0359.0958.100.010.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0333.3332.41-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0314.2918.63-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0357.1457.930.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0357.8961.480.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0326.0927.81-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.060.0345.4537.84-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0361.9054.010.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0340.0049.74-0.01-0.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0330.0034.84-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0325.0029.91-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0352.1750.240.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0369.5773.030.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0331.5836.16-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0363.6461.810.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0316.6724.27-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0363.6462.340.020.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0360.0057.290.010.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0357.1457.940.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0353.3355.180.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0365.2256.530.020.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0317.3921.76-0.04-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0310.0015.28-0.05-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0352.1749.340.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0352.1754.140.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0358.3354.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0360.0054.590.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0352.3848.890.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0363.1666.150.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0315.7916.39-0.04-0.02
TexasB120.060.0368.1861.780.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0373.6870.400.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0347.6257.27-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0347.8343.92-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0335.0035.36-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0350.0054.850.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0328.5734.73-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0355.0048.870.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.060.0372.7366.970.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0350.0048.750.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0368.1867.800.020.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0357.1457.880.010.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0336.8441.45-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0383.3380.130.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0366.6761.680.000.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0372.7369.690.030.01
MercerSC0.060.0371.4370.600.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0342.8641.75-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0336.3630.98-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0330.0032.46-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0318.7526.09-0.04-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0366.6767.310.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0325.0022.58-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0385.7176.030.040.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0315.0015.65-0.04-0.02
Washington St.P120.060.0338.1033.45-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0331.8233.75-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0373.9173.090.030.01
DaytonA100.000.0385.7181.220.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0310.0014.87-0.05-0.02
DukeACC0.060.0372.7369.920.030.01
FordhamA100.060.0357.8954.300.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0354.5552.750.010.00
La SalleA100.060.0321.0520.91-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0327.2732.84-0.03-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0342.8639.84-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0380.9575.640.040.01
MichiganB100.060.0372.7367.980.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0321.0529.16-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0325.0025.48-0.03-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0382.6178.230.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0370.0069.070.020.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.710.020.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0335.0031.39-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0368.1862.190.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0370.0069.360.020.01
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.900.010.00