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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:25.8
Current RPI:88
Expected SOS:31
Current SOS:105
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:65
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-34.30.15%
26-46.40.83%
25-59.33.62%
24-612.98.93%
23-716.415.87%
22-821.019.23%
21-925.719.67%
20-1032.415.65%
19-1139.78.87%
18-1248.94.67%
17-1360.01.88%
16-1472.40.46%
15-1588.00.14%
14-1696.00.01%
13-17118.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Savannah St. (345.5)MEACH113-71W100%0.0
11-14Mount St. Mary's (174.1)NECH73-55W100%0.0
11-20The Citadel (299.0)SCH130-63W100%0.0
11-24Indiana St. (132.3)MVCN73-71W100%0.0
11-25Miami FL (42.1)ACCN56-73W100%0.0
11-27Gonzaga (10.0)WCCN73-71L0%0.0
12-1Cincinnati (18.6)AmerH54-55L0%0.0
12-5Nebraska Omaha (170.8)SumH91-47W100%0.0
12-8Iowa (190.1)B10A0-086%13.2
12-17Drake (308.2)MVCN0-099%27.4
12-20Mississippi Valley St. (316.6)SWACH0-0100%39.3
12-30Texas Tech (72.4)B12H0-081%10.4
1-4Baylor (8.9)B12A0-044%-1.8
1-7Texas (118.2)B12H0-090%15.3
1-11Oklahoma St. (57.9)B12A0-063%4.0
1-14TCU (48.5)B12A0-065%4.7
1-16Kansas (6.4)B12H0-054%1.2
1-21Oklahoma (80.5)B12A0-070%6.2
1-24Kansas St. (87.0)B12H0-085%12.2
1-28Vanderbilt (74.8)SECA0-075%8.3
1-31West Virginia (12.4)B12H0-046%-1.1
2-4Kansas (6.4)B12A0-034%-5.1
2-7Texas (118.2)B12A0-077%9.0
2-11Oklahoma (80.5)B12H0-085%12.4
2-15Kansas St. (87.0)B12A0-069%6.0
2-18TCU (48.5)B12H0-082%10.9
2-20Texas Tech (72.4)B12A0-063%4.1
2-25Baylor (8.9)B12H0-064%4.5
2-28Oklahoma St. (57.9)B12H0-080%10.3
3-3West Virginia (12.4)B12A0-027%-7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1228.0926.3264.7170.258.2610.66
West VirginiaB120.354.2685.7184.640.252.95
Kansas St.B120.394.2488.8959.020.300.76
KansasB120.004.2188.8978.930.002.43
TexasB120.004.2150.0040.270.00-0.82
Texas TechB120.004.2187.5063.990.001.18
BaylorB120.004.20100.0078.240.002.37
OklahomaB120.004.2071.4349.840.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.004.2071.4355.850.000.49
TCUB120.004.20100.0063.410.001.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.391.780.0026.00-0.39-0.85
DrakeMVC0.001.750.0020.91-0.00-1.02
Nebraska OmahaSum6.251.7542.8652.81-0.890.10
IowaB100.781.7344.4439.24-0.09-0.37
Indiana St.MVC6.251.7350.0052.800.000.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC6.251.7212.5050.76-4.690.03
GonzagaWCC6.251.69100.0091.936.251.42
Savannah St.MEAC6.251.690.0019.81-6.25-1.02
CincinnatiAmer6.251.6785.7181.854.461.06
Miami FLACC6.251.6787.5069.044.690.63
The CitadelSC6.251.6757.1431.440.89-0.62
VanderbiltSEC0.001.6755.5647.510.00-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.000.2377.7886.650.000.17
Northern IowaMVC0.000.2033.3352.49-0.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1985.7157.280.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1950.0066.380.000.06
ArkansasSEC0.350.1987.5069.040.260.07
BradleyMVC0.000.1737.5025.74-0.00-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1760.0067.820.000.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.170.0022.75-0.00-0.09
UMKCWAC0.000.1755.5649.660.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.740.1677.7872.930.410.08
MarylandB100.000.1687.5059.030.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.350.1457.1449.420.05-0.00
WoffordSC0.350.140.0034.69-0.35-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.350.1428.5723.02-0.15-0.08
MemphisAmer0.390.1475.0056.270.200.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1414.2943.08-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.1457.1452.140.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1450.0044.700.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1357.1451.810.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.1250.0046.820.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1250.0045.130.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1271.4358.830.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1260.0058.900.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1214.2942.77-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.110.0016.56-0.00-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.000.110.0016.33-0.00-0.08
StanfordP120.790.1166.6758.600.260.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1112.5033.31-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0023.90-0.00-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1142.8644.90-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.1190.0080.060.000.07
Michigan St.B100.000.1160.0058.780.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.1166.6766.650.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.1140.0058.88-0.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.1112.5023.82-0.00-0.06
TulsaAmer0.000.1150.0037.700.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1162.5042.780.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.1188.8978.430.000.06
IllinoisB100.000.1166.6751.140.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1125.0042.78-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1187.5074.510.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.1187.5082.220.000.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.110.0038.43-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.350.1177.7865.840.190.03
NebraskaB100.000.1157.1444.830.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.090.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1112.5033.18-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1130.0045.49-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.1175.0064.820.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1171.4365.470.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.1150.0059.840.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3379.920.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.350.090.0026.22-0.35-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0925.0040.17-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.38-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.390.0975.0072.800.200.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0975.0074.590.000.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.0962.5070.890.000.04
SamfordSC0.390.0962.5056.520.100.01
CampbellBSth0.390.0942.8639.64-0.06-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0985.7162.500.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.390.0825.0031.76-0.20-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.390.0812.5026.05-0.29-0.04
RiceCUSA0.390.0875.0070.570.200.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.560.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0887.5075.690.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.910.000.05
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0074.830.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.450.0842.8650.57-0.060.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0875.0047.990.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0833.3332.79-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.0877.7876.550.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0887.5070.880.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.760.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.390.0822.2246.51-0.22-0.01
RutgersB100.350.0887.5050.250.260.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.740.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0816.6739.99-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0857.1454.200.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4347.690.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.350.0888.8966.920.270.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.350.0862.5067.590.090.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.390.0628.5733.56-0.17-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.65-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3351.57-0.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.68-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4355.570.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.780.0660.0069.260.160.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.16-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0048.980.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.890.0642.8645.50-0.13-0.01
StetsonASun0.390.0625.0026.46-0.20-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.190.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.840.0628.5737.54-0.36-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.81-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.120.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5067.080.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.51-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0688.8967.470.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.600.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0045.82-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.72-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0042.14-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8645.98-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.51-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.590.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.15-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.770.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0660.0062.420.000.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0072.930.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.0657.1450.730.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0076.970.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.32-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.29-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0570.0070.530.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0528.5727.38-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.450.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0571.4360.090.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4362.990.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.980.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0571.4355.680.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0533.3351.98-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0537.5048.85-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0575.0075.180.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0512.5029.77-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0562.5052.400.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0520.0021.92-0.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0516.6729.83-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2232.01-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0562.5062.120.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.05-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0557.1453.860.000.00
Penn St.B100.390.0566.6746.170.13-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0577.7877.640.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0528.5734.49-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0550.0048.500.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0544.4438.15-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0525.0023.99-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3350.05-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0557.1433.200.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3340.37-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0585.7175.800.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0562.5071.850.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0525.0029.90-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0528.5752.65-0.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0542.8629.20-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.390.0342.8643.55-0.06-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0023.62-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.06-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.390.0355.5637.870.04-0.01
ColgatePat0.390.0312.5030.11-0.29-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.390.0366.6761.690.130.01
DePaulBE0.000.0371.4337.680.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.390.0350.0056.080.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0357.1443.930.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.390.0328.5724.39-0.17-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.660.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.390.030.0033.71-0.39-0.01
USCP120.390.03100.0076.400.390.02
USC UpstateASun0.390.0344.4441.55-0.04-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.450.0350.0050.170.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1449.640.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7175.250.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.03-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
ArizonaP120.390.0377.7870.290.220.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8643.78-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.350.0312.5034.49-0.26-0.01
PennIvy0.350.0333.3356.66-0.120.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0362.5062.080.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.390.0357.1457.780.060.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0377.7855.180.000.00
AlbanyAE0.390.0342.8660.66-0.060.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0357.1464.500.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.390.0325.0040.78-0.20-0.00
BrownIvy0.390.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.270.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0370.0050.010.000.00
George MasonA100.350.0362.5046.490.09-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.24-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0337.5044.87-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.02-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0337.5061.81-0.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.390.0311.1132.47-0.30-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.350.0342.8645.85-0.05-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5075.730.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3355.64-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.390.0366.6770.400.130.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0375.0054.480.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.180.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0320.0035.15-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0320.0022.88-0.00-0.01