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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:19.2
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:2
Current Record:16-6
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:5-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-65.10.47%
24-77.93.71%
23-811.514.68%
22-915.527.22%
21-1019.928.97%
20-1125.617.27%
19-1234.46.12%
18-1345.41.41%
17-1457.40.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Colorado (40.5)P12N68-62W100%0.0
11-16Chicago St. (343.1)WACH106-64W100%0.0
11-23Chattanooga (46.8)SCH83-63W100%0.0
11-27Virginia Tech (138.1)ACCN99-77W100%0.0
11-28Illinois (158.4)B10N73-84W100%0.0
12-1North Dakota St. (127.5)SumH84-64W100%0.0
12-7Buffalo (94.5)MACH84-63W100%0.0
12-10Iowa (7.4)B10H83-82W100%0.0
12-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.2)SWACH78-64W100%0.0
12-19Northern Iowa (120.5)MVCN79-81L0%0.0
12-22Cincinnati (42.5)AmerA79-81W100%0.0
12-30Coppin St. (321.9)MEACH104-84W100%0.0
1-2Oklahoma (2.5)B12A87-83L0%0.0
1-6Texas Tech (62.4)B12H76-69W100%0.0
1-9Baylor (27.3)B12H89-94L0%0.0
1-12Texas (27.9)B12A94-91L0%0.0
1-16Kansas St. (74.1)B12A63-76W100%0.0
1-18Oklahoma (2.5)B12H82-77W100%0.0
1-23TCU (175.3)B12A60-73W100%0.0
1-25Kansas (6.2)B12H85-72W100%0.0
1-30Texas A&M (16.5)SECA72-62L0%0.0
2-2West Virginia (10.3)B12H76-81L0%0.0
2-6Oklahoma St. (134.4)B12A0-062%3.3
2-10Texas Tech (62.4)B12A0-059%2.5
2-13Texas (27.9)B12H0-068%5.1
2-16Baylor (27.3)B12A0-043%-1.8
2-20TCU (175.3)B12H0-092%15.5
2-22West Virginia (10.3)B12A0-024%-7.7
2-27Kansas St. (74.1)B12H0-077%8.1
2-29Oklahoma St. (134.4)B12H0-082%9.9
3-5Kansas (6.2)B12A0-027%-6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1226.2626.3070.2168.2210.629.59
Kansas St.B122.814.1361.9058.590.670.71
TexasB122.694.1066.6761.480.900.94
West VirginiaB122.754.1080.9578.091.702.30
Oklahoma St.B120.584.1050.0046.950.00-0.25
BaylorB122.704.0975.0066.571.351.36
Texas TechB122.754.0965.0056.400.820.52
TCUB122.704.0747.6240.18-0.13-0.80
KansasB122.704.0785.0079.891.892.43
OklahomaB124.864.0794.7487.394.353.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.431.7722.7325.40-1.32-0.87
Texas A&MSEC2.431.7780.9580.381.501.08
IllinoisB102.431.7350.0046.000.00-0.14
Coppin St.MEAC2.381.6916.6723.42-1.58-0.90
Virginia TechACC2.371.6954.5548.830.22-0.04
IowaB102.331.6785.7182.651.671.09
ChattanoogaSC2.321.6490.0087.691.861.24
Chicago St.WAC2.321.644.768.20-2.10-1.37
North Dakota St.Sum2.321.6465.0062.650.700.41
CincinnatiAmer2.321.6477.2775.531.270.84
BuffaloMAC2.271.6160.0059.490.450.31
ColoradoP122.271.6176.1969.271.190.62
Northern IowaMVC2.271.6150.0052.560.000.08
MinnesotaB100.160.2126.0927.81-0.07-0.09
VanderbiltSEC0.210.2159.0962.730.040.05
WashingtonP120.210.2168.1862.190.080.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1676.1976.220.080.09
GeorgiaSEC0.210.1660.0056.080.040.02
HawaiiBW0.260.1683.3380.130.170.10
Michigan St.B100.260.1682.6181.380.170.10
North CarolinaACC0.200.1686.3680.660.150.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.164.7614.01-0.14-0.11
MissouriSEC0.200.1636.3630.98-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.100.1430.0034.84-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.160.1439.1339.48-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.210.1338.1033.45-0.05-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.200.1326.3233.83-0.10-0.04
RichmondA100.160.1352.3853.680.010.01
WisconsinB100.160.1360.8755.900.030.02
MichiganB100.150.1372.7367.980.070.05
SMUAmer0.150.1390.4885.550.120.09
FloridaSEC0.100.1368.1867.800.040.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.200.1310.5325.37-0.16-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.1110.0014.87-0.04-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1127.7829.23-0.07-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.220.1126.0930.33-0.10-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1163.6468.210.030.04
Oral RobertsSum0.220.1140.9143.01-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.110.1140.9143.37-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1125.0029.91-0.08-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.160.1144.4446.94-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.150.1166.6763.480.050.03
HarvardIvy0.160.1136.8441.45-0.04-0.02
OregonP120.160.1181.8278.210.100.06
Oregon St.P120.110.1160.0054.590.020.01
UtahP120.110.1172.7368.550.050.04
Penn St.B100.100.1147.8343.63-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.160.1150.0054.850.000.01
BradleyMVC0.150.118.709.77-0.12-0.09
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1150.0048.750.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1152.1747.620.00-0.01
IndianaB100.050.1182.6177.370.030.06
LSUSEC0.160.1163.6459.440.040.02
MemphisAmer0.160.1159.0958.550.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1142.8641.75-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.1140.9138.03-0.01-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1171.4370.810.050.04
StanfordP120.150.1152.6347.690.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.1145.4547.97-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.1042.8637.19-0.01-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1050.0056.540.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1047.6257.27-0.000.02
NebraskaB100.200.1052.1751.560.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1072.7372.440.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1042.8651.33-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.1063.6459.950.010.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1081.8276.020.060.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0921.0529.16-0.06-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0938.1047.51-0.03-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.0915.0015.65-0.07-0.06
AkronMAC0.110.0881.8279.750.070.05
CaliforniaP120.160.0863.6461.810.040.02
CreightonBE0.170.0860.8759.050.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.0838.8943.22-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0831.5833.51-0.02-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0859.0959.470.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.0826.0925.56-0.07-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0828.5734.73-0.05-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0850.0046.870.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0827.2732.84-0.05-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0847.6252.96-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0863.6457.330.020.01
SeattleWAC0.150.0845.0042.81-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0845.0041.83-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.110.0855.5660.900.010.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.0822.7324.28-0.06-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.0840.0044.95-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.0822.7324.85-0.06-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.0830.0029.98-0.04-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0868.7574.730.040.04
UCLAP120.050.0856.5253.350.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0876.1979.640.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0855.0048.870.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0872.7369.690.020.03
PurdueB100.150.0882.6178.230.100.05
OhioMAC0.050.0860.0057.960.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0836.3635.33-0.01-0.02
Notre DameACC0.150.0868.1863.720.050.02
Ohio St.B100.100.0858.3354.120.020.01
RutgersB100.100.0822.7320.68-0.06-0.05
MississippiSEC0.050.0863.6456.050.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.0850.0048.260.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0873.6870.400.050.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0816.6720.71-0.07-0.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0640.0042.53-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.0660.0061.350.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0665.0067.510.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0652.1748.790.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0657.1457.930.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0654.5553.780.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0681.8281.010.030.04
IPFWSum0.050.0673.9170.210.030.02
IUPUISum0.050.0641.6740.25-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0671.4370.600.020.02
The CitadelSC0.110.0635.0031.39-0.03-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0630.0033.57-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0635.0035.36-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.110.0638.1043.35-0.03-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.0661.9058.190.030.01
DaytonA100.110.0685.7181.220.080.03
MarquetteBE0.100.0665.2256.530.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.110.0638.1041.23-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0666.6760.120.040.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.0666.6765.410.040.02
RadfordBSth0.100.0552.3853.620.000.00
VMISC0.050.0516.6718.97-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0590.0086.120.040.04
BYUWCC0.100.0569.5773.030.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0516.6724.27-0.07-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0573.9176.040.020.03
High PointBSth0.050.0557.8961.480.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.9139.70-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.0553.3355.180.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.5555.310.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0566.6761.680.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0540.9139.22-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0531.8234.36-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0518.7533.17-0.07-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0528.5728.88-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0518.7526.09-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0547.3750.51-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0575.0073.480.050.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0557.1457.560.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0572.7371.670.020.02
VillanovaBE0.110.0586.3685.330.080.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0552.1750.240.000.00
DukeACC0.100.0572.7369.920.050.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0568.1863.250.020.01
MarylandB100.050.0586.9681.770.040.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0581.8277.440.070.03
VCUA100.100.0577.2776.780.060.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.55-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0527.2730.43-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0542.8643.53-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.0064.310.020.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0572.7368.010.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0555.5650.840.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0569.5768.670.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0519.0522.35-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0547.8350.56-0.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0580.9575.640.000.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0530.0032.46-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0580.0070.290.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0554.5555.990.000.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0538.1033.38-0.01-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.100.0520.8320.11-0.06-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0525.0029.75-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.100.0566.6762.710.030.01
TempleAmer0.100.0561.9058.420.020.01
UABCUSA0.100.0581.8278.320.060.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0565.0068.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0514.2913.97-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0545.4542.14-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0545.4541.98-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.2944.50-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0533.3334.18-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.3921.76-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0563.1666.150.010.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0321.0523.70-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0357.8954.300.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0352.3848.890.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0336.3634.95-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0357.1457.880.010.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0342.1142.70-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0321.7427.64-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0366.6767.310.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0333.3333.64-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0336.8434.20-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.3749.38-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0380.9583.050.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0342.8635.05-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0378.2677.230.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0341.6743.85-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0050.510.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0322.7323.64-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.090.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0310.0015.28-0.04-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0330.0029.46-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0354.5561.950.000.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0337.5036.54-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.070.020.01
USCP120.000.0378.2673.130.000.01
VermontAE0.050.0356.5258.380.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0335.0036.57-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1452.310.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0331.8226.61-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0368.1866.490.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0331.5836.16-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0363.6462.340.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0345.0049.60-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0377.2771.670.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.750.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0377.2776.130.030.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.267.22-0.04-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0381.8277.490.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0352.1749.340.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0368.1869.350.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0378.2671.960.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0325.0029.52-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0385.7176.030.000.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.41-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.0047.170.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0363.6465.480.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0323.8125.03-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0390.9184.430.040.02
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2273.760.020.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.5556.020.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01