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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:151.6
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:155
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:234



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1034.50.02%
18-1144.90.07%
17-1258.20.43%
16-1369.01.50%
15-1486.13.61%
14-15102.07.02%
13-16119.613.51%
12-17137.217.61%
11-18156.319.12%
10-19173.317.20%
9-20191.611.38%
8-21207.96.21%
7-22223.31.90%
6-23237.00.33%
5-24249.60.07%
4-25261.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Missouri (59.7)SECA74-59L0%0.0
11-13Milwaukee (165.5)HorzH56-74L0%0.0
11-16Appalachian St. (278.0)SBN98-104W100%0.0
11-17Tulsa (155.3)AmerN78-80W100%0.0
11-25Western Illinois (286.4)SumH0-091%16.2
12-4Northern Illinois (160.0)MACH0-078%9.3
12-7Iowa (98.1)B10H0-051%0.3
12-10Alcorn St. (317.1)SWACH0-097%22.8
12-16Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCN0-047%-1.0
12-20Maryland Eastern Shore (320.1)MEACH0-098%24.7
12-29Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-035%-4.5
1-1Texas (42.7)B12H0-031%-6.0
1-6Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12A0-019%-10.6
1-9Kansas (4.9)B12A0-05%-19.4
1-13Baylor (41.9)B12H0-031%-6.0
1-17TCU (44.2)B12A0-019%-10.3
1-20Texas Tech (67.9)B12H0-036%-4.5
1-22Texas (42.7)B12A0-016%-12.0
1-27Tennessee (96.3)SECH0-054%1.1
1-31West Virginia (33.4)B12H0-021%-9.8
2-3Baylor (41.9)B12A0-016%-12.0
2-7Texas Tech (67.9)B12A0-019%-10.4
2-10Oklahoma (39.9)B12H0-031%-6.1
2-13Kansas (4.9)B12H0-013%-13.4
2-17Kansas St. (67.2)B12A0-019%-10.5
2-21TCU (44.2)B12H0-036%-4.3
2-24West Virginia (33.4)B12A0-09%-15.8
2-27Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12H0-035%-4.5
3-2Oklahoma (39.9)B12A0-016%-12.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1234.9026.4050.0033.210.00-8.87
Kansas St.B120.004.41100.0062.220.001.08
Oklahoma St.B120.004.41100.0058.580.000.76
BaylorB120.004.41100.0059.960.000.88
KansasB120.004.39100.0082.370.002.84
TCUB120.004.38100.0060.350.000.91
Texas TechB120.004.38100.0061.910.001.04
TexasB120.004.38100.0062.890.001.13
West VirginiaB120.004.3866.6770.180.001.77
OklahomaB120.004.38100.0058.780.000.77
TulsaAmer12.501.8466.6750.424.170.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.001.820.0038.430.00-0.42
MilwaukeeHorz12.501.79100.0058.5812.500.31
Northern IllinoisMAC0.001.78100.0051.560.000.06
IowaB100.001.76100.0058.580.000.30
Northern IowaMVC0.001.7666.6763.610.000.48
MissouriSEC12.501.7550.0056.330.000.22
TennesseeSEC0.001.75100.0048.420.00-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.001.75100.0040.070.00-0.35
Appalachian St.SB12.501.720.0029.79-12.50-0.70
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.001.720.0029.800.00-0.70
Texas A&MSEC0.000.26100.0071.010.000.11
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.250.0035.760.00-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.000.2466.6749.990.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.2475.0071.830.000.10
Wichita St.Amer0.000.24100.0082.290.000.15
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.240.0050.360.000.00
Oral RobertsSum1.560.220.0023.26-1.56-0.12
ArkansasSEC0.000.21100.0071.180.000.09
AmericanPat0.000.190.0030.350.00-0.07
MississippiSEC0.000.18100.0053.790.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.18100.0061.320.000.04
Western MichiganMAC4.690.1533.3353.19-1.560.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0044.630.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.15100.0053.240.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1575.0058.930.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.150.0025.140.00-0.07
South DakotaSum0.000.1366.6767.630.000.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1366.6761.500.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.1350.0035.740.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1333.3345.540.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.120.0044.830.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0018.970.00-0.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.120.0035.610.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.12100.0080.230.000.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.120.0022.920.00-0.07
SMUAmer0.000.12100.0076.260.000.06
ToledoMAC0.000.12100.0064.120.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.1233.3345.780.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.12100.0061.710.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.1266.6766.970.000.04
OaklandHorz0.000.1266.6765.630.000.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0046.410.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.11100.0078.910.000.07
Arizona St.P120.000.11100.0062.760.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.10100.0039.920.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.1075.0052.360.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.100.0032.200.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1033.3352.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.10100.0057.270.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.100.0044.500.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.007.670.00-0.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.09100.0071.560.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0026.180.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.770.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0033.850.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.09100.0078.990.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0051.080.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0022.840.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.400.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0048.410.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0933.3335.150.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.09100.0054.140.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0055.040.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0933.3338.350.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0933.3349.220.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0950.0051.070.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0059.870.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0966.6728.760.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0966.6766.590.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0925.0054.930.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0933.3346.880.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0975.0071.560.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6740.070.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.070.0038.100.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0733.3341.010.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6756.330.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3353.520.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0775.0048.770.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0051.900.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0733.3343.810.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0766.6763.230.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.07100.0059.250.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.07100.0059.760.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0078.160.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.740.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0675.0061.940.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3342.010.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3346.410.00-0.00
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0650.0059.190.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.06100.0070.960.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0047.180.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0046.000.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.140.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0041.210.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0633.3341.220.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0036.830.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0032.130.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.060.0013.450.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0650.0050.570.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.060.0024.440.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3336.410.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0067.950.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0049.860.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0433.3329.980.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0325.0040.490.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3360.630.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0050.870.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0065.140.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
UtahP122.080.03100.0067.162.080.01
WagnerNEC2.080.0366.6749.940.69-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0325.0035.000.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3350.840.000.00
FIUCUSA3.120.030.0024.97-3.12-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0029.620.00-0.01
LamarSlnd1.560.03100.0065.581.560.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
RutgersB100.000.03100.0046.880.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01