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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:9.0
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:6
Current SOS:6
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-89.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oakland (155.0)HorzH93-82W100%0.0
11-17Georgia St. (53.0)SBH81-58W100%0.0
11-24Alabama (85.0)SECN84-74W100%0.0
11-25Maryland (13.0)B10N63-72L0%0.0
12-2Lamar (230.0)SlndH96-59W100%0.0
12-4Arkansas (19.0)SECH95-77W100%0.0
12-9UMKC (295.0)WACH73-56W100%0.0
12-12Iowa (43.0)B10A75-90W100%0.0
12-14Southern (223.0)SWACH88-78W100%0.0
12-20Drake (269.0)MVCN83-54W100%0.0
12-31Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH83-33W100%0.0
1-3South Carolina (91.0)SECN60-64L0%0.0
1-6Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12H63-61W100%0.0
1-10West Virginia (24.0)B12A72-74W100%0.0
1-14Baylor (10.0)B12A74-73L0%0.0
1-17Kansas (2.0)B12H86-81W100%0.0
1-20Kansas St. (100.0)B12H77-71W100%0.0
1-24Texas Tech (183.0)B12A78-73L0%0.0
1-26Texas (42.0)B12H89-86W100%0.0
1-31TCU (131.0)B12H83-66W100%0.0
2-2Kansas (2.0)B12A89-76L0%0.0
2-7Texas Tech (183.0)B12H75-38W100%0.0
2-9Oklahoma (18.0)B12A94-83L0%0.0
2-14West Virginia (24.0)B12H79-59W100%0.0
2-18Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A65-70W100%0.0
2-21Texas (42.0)B12A77-85W100%0.0
2-25Baylor (10.0)B12H70-79L0%0.0
2-28Kansas St. (100.0)B12A70-69L0%0.0
3-2Oklahoma (18.0)B12H77-70W100%0.0
3-7TCU (131.0)B12A76-89W100%0.0
3-12Texas (42.0)B12N69-67W100%0.0
3-13Oklahoma (18.0)B12N65-67W100%0.0
3-14Kansas (2.0)B12N66-70W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1226.4826.4876.6476.6414.1114.11
KansasB125.495.4980.6580.653.363.36
TexasB125.465.4666.6766.671.821.82
OklahomaB125.445.4472.4172.412.442.44
BaylorB124.084.0870.0070.001.631.63
TCUB124.064.0658.0658.060.660.66
Oklahoma St.B124.034.0360.7160.710.860.86
Kansas St.B123.993.9946.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Texas TechB123.993.9940.0040.00-0.80-0.80
West VirginiaB123.973.9776.6776.672.122.12
South CarolinaSEC1.711.7148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
MarylandB101.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
SouthernSWAC1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6119.3519.35-0.99-0.99
IowaB101.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
ArkansasSEC1.591.5978.7978.790.910.91
AlabamaSEC1.581.5856.6756.670.210.21
UMKCWAC1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
OaklandHorz1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB1.541.5474.1974.190.750.75
DrakeMVC1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
LamarSlnd1.521.5244.0044.00-0.18-0.18
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.290.2943.7543.75-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.280.28100.00100.000.280.28
MissouriSEC0.260.2625.8125.81-0.13-0.13
TennesseeSEC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.240.2464.7164.710.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.190.1964.5264.520.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.1916.6716.67-0.12-0.12
MississippiSEC0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Michigan St.B100.180.1867.6567.650.070.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.1755.5655.560.020.02
BradleyMVC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
LSUSEC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1662.9662.960.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Texas St.SB0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
Green BayHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
TulsaAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1186.6786.670.080.08
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0858.3358.330.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
LipscombASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00