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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:40.2
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:97
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:228



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-12.00.01%
27-21.50.02%
26-33.80.24%
25-45.60.72%
24-58.12.20%
23-611.74.62%
22-717.210.21%
21-823.514.61%
20-931.317.97%
19-1041.717.14%
18-1153.315.00%
17-1266.89.10%
16-1382.05.10%
15-1498.02.06%
14-15116.60.69%
13-16138.00.22%
12-17155.40.05%
11-18167.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oakland (246.3)HorzH93-82W100%0.0
11-17Georgia St. (102.3)SBH81-58W100%0.0
11-24Alabama (67.9)SECN84-74W100%0.0
12-2Lamar (294.3)SlndH0-098%25.1
12-4Arkansas (31.5)SECH0-059%2.8
12-9UMKC (230.0)WACH0-095%19.5
12-12Iowa (46.5)B10A0-036%-4.2
12-14Southern (280.1)SWACH0-098%24.6
12-20Drake (265.4)MVCN0-094%18.9
12-31Mississippi Valley St. (346.0)SWACH0-0100%34.1
1-3South Carolina (103.6)SECN0-066%4.8
1-6Oklahoma St. (70.8)B12H0-073%7.3
1-10West Virginia (24.9)B12A0-038%-3.8
1-14Baylor (23.6)B12A0-035%-4.5
1-17Kansas (27.4)B12H0-064%4.2
1-20Kansas St. (72.8)B12H0-071%6.6
1-24Texas Tech (165.3)B12A0-070%6.2
1-26Texas (8.3)B12H0-044%-1.8
1-31TCU (133.6)B12H0-079%9.7
2-2Kansas (27.4)B12A0-040%-3.0
2-7Texas Tech (165.3)B12H0-087%13.4
2-9Oklahoma (51.1)B12A0-043%-2.2
2-14West Virginia (24.9)B12H0-061%3.4
2-18Oklahoma St. (70.8)B12A0-050%0.1
2-21Texas (8.3)B12A0-023%-9.0
2-25Baylor (23.6)B12H0-059%2.7
2-28Kansas St. (72.8)B12A0-048%-0.6
3-2Oklahoma (51.1)B12H0-066%5.0
3-7TCU (133.6)B12A0-058%2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1231.9426.38100.0065.4331.948.14
BaylorB120.004.45100.0071.380.001.90
TexasB120.004.42100.0080.040.002.66
TCUB120.004.42100.0059.460.000.84
Kansas St.B120.004.4175.0059.060.000.80
Oklahoma St.B120.004.41100.0057.110.000.63
West VirginiaB120.004.39100.0071.790.001.91
Texas TechB120.004.3966.6747.060.00-0.26
KansasB120.004.3866.6759.600.000.84
OklahomaB120.004.3866.6759.820.000.86
South CarolinaSEC0.001.9640.0050.56-0.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.840.0017.50-0.00-1.20
SouthernSWAC0.001.840.0040.90-0.00-0.34
ArkansasSEC0.001.81100.0075.710.000.93
AlabamaSEC16.671.81100.0060.2716.670.37
UMKCWAC0.001.7825.0047.86-0.00-0.08
IowaB100.001.7860.0064.040.000.50
Georgia St.SB16.671.7550.0065.370.000.54
OaklandHorz16.671.750.0030.85-16.67-0.67
DrakeMVC0.001.720.0026.00-0.00-0.83
LamarSlnd0.001.720.0035.48-0.00-0.50
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.360.0040.20-0.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.270.0038.56-0.00-0.06
MissouriSEC0.000.2750.0043.080.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.26100.0087.980.000.20
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2475.0069.180.000.09
TennesseeSEC0.000.2050.0041.580.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.2075.0055.660.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.200.0031.92-0.00-0.07
LSUSEC0.000.2060.0056.290.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.190.0045.64-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.180.0053.97-0.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1825.0035.54-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1820.0029.26-0.00-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.180.0020.03-0.00-0.11
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1875.0056.780.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.18100.0050.840.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.1833.3322.95-0.00-0.10
North TexasCUSA0.000.1866.6738.720.00-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1750.0032.620.00-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.160.0029.61-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1525.0040.65-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1566.6748.390.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.150.0064.44-0.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1566.6768.660.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.1550.0068.360.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.14100.0047.400.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.130.0065.66-0.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.1250.0066.640.000.04
MarylandB100.000.12100.0066.670.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0043.12-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1240.0066.65-0.000.04
Chicago St.WAC2.780.120.0022.57-2.78-0.06
George MasonA100.000.1220.0021.70-0.00-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.120.0039.25-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1250.0052.390.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.1275.0064.540.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1225.0052.91-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1175.0056.390.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1175.0070.270.000.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.10100.0051.650.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0031.710.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0950.0045.420.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0034.80-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.09100.0064.700.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0980.0057.960.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0966.6745.890.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3327.72-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0975.0047.380.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0966.6746.410.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0975.0055.490.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0084.110.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0940.0038.36-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC4.170.0933.3354.64-1.390.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0051.710.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0044.98-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0071.240.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0975.0062.270.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0966.6749.970.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0026.270.00-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0966.6750.930.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6762.260.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.200.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.08100.0041.460.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0850.0043.250.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0030.13-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0024.93-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0064.210.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0650.0063.110.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.360.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.130.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3348.25-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.070.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0053.38-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.290.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.87-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0650.0054.870.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.740.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0050.880.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.020.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.130.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3347.25-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0059.320.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.540.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0034.21-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0044.61-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0050.60-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.76-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6745.370.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.80-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.180.000.00
UtahP120.000.0666.6772.280.000.03
Western MichiganMAC2.080.0666.6753.220.690.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6757.340.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0034.020.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA2.080.0650.0054.250.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0073.300.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.710.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0040.87-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0031.48-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0039.88-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.790.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0650.0032.050.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.32-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.67-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.060.0044.74-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3323.97-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3350.07-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.43-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.390.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3328.67-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0043.380.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.53-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0068.180.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.80-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.060.0043.29-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0054.950.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6752.810.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.870.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3339.78-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.810.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3344.46-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0069.760.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.810.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3337.04-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.620.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.960.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0021.40-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0360.0050.930.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.030.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0066.880.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0375.0069.590.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0074.960.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0058.710.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3337.47-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.280.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC2.080.03100.0050.792.080.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.480.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0053.69-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3368.63-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0022.66-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0043.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.570.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0051.040.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0039.62-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3350.01-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6751.260.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0065.370.000.01
TowsonCAA2.080.0380.0059.571.250.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.640.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0080.240.000.02
Colorado St.MWC2.780.03100.0064.712.780.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.16-0.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.970.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.26-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0044.69-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.880.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.930.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.27-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.03100.0070.020.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0070.800.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0043.930.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6756.000.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0366.6735.400.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0065.950.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0038.08-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0045.520.00-0.00