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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:34.6
Current RPI:27
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:77
Current Record:8-1
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-44.70.06%
25-56.70.28%
24-69.31.48%
23-712.53.79%
22-816.48.48%
21-920.914.50%
20-1026.519.03%
19-1134.018.94%
18-1243.215.56%
17-1354.910.10%
16-1467.65.06%
15-1583.42.02%
14-1697.90.56%
13-17122.00.11%
12-18132.00.01%
11-19138.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oakland (228.6)HorzH93-82W100%0.0
11-17Georgia St. (62.8)SBH81-58W100%0.0
11-24Alabama (73.7)SECN84-74W100%0.0
11-25Maryland (45.6)B10N63-72L0%0.0
12-2Lamar (281.4)SlndH96-59W100%0.0
12-4Arkansas (43.8)SECH95-77W100%0.0
12-9UMKC (264.8)WACH73-56W100%0.0
12-12Iowa (46.8)B10A75-90W100%0.0
12-14Southern (310.7)SWACH88-78W100%0.0
12-20Drake (284.4)MVCN0-096%20.8
12-31Mississippi Valley St. (346.7)SWACH0-0100%36.4
1-3South Carolina (40.5)SECN0-046%-1.3
1-6Oklahoma St. (30.6)B12H0-065%4.4
1-10West Virginia (25.5)B12A0-032%-5.6
1-14Baylor (9.7)B12A0-022%-9.1
1-17Kansas (7.7)B12H0-058%2.4
1-20Kansas St. (131.3)B12H0-087%13.2
1-24Texas Tech (134.6)B12A0-065%4.7
1-26Texas (5.5)B12H0-038%-3.7
1-31TCU (65.6)B12H0-070%6.2
2-2Kansas (7.7)B12A0-029%-6.5
2-7Texas Tech (134.6)B12H0-088%13.6
2-9Oklahoma (18.8)B12A0-026%-7.5
2-14West Virginia (25.5)B12H0-061%3.4
2-18Oklahoma St. (30.6)B12A0-035%-4.5
2-21Texas (5.5)B12A0-014%-12.7
2-25Baylor (9.7)B12H0-049%-0.2
2-28Kansas St. (131.3)B12A0-064%4.2
3-2Oklahoma (18.8)B12H0-055%1.4
3-7TCU (65.6)B12A0-041%-2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1227.8526.3285.7162.4719.896.56
BaylorB120.004.2788.8975.840.002.20
Oklahoma St.B120.004.2688.8965.170.001.29
Kansas St.B120.314.2460.0039.210.06-0.92
TCUB120.004.24100.0069.020.001.61
TexasB120.254.2490.0082.310.202.74
West VirginiaB120.004.2190.0068.520.001.56
KansasB120.004.2188.8970.830.001.75
OklahomaB120.004.2177.7868.630.001.57
Texas TechB120.004.2187.5049.620.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.001.8962.5065.280.000.58
MarylandB105.561.7890.0066.854.440.60
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.7810.0019.00-0.00-1.10
SouthernSWAC5.561.780.0035.35-5.56-0.52
ArkansasSEC5.561.7587.5073.724.170.83
AlabamaSEC5.561.7575.0057.482.780.26
IowaB105.561.7580.0064.743.330.52
OaklandHorz5.951.7233.3332.64-1.98-0.60
UMKCWAC5.561.7225.0043.81-2.78-0.21
Georgia St.SB5.831.7083.3375.353.890.86
DrakeMVC0.001.6720.0021.16-0.00-0.96
LamarSlnd5.561.6716.6733.50-3.70-0.55
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.330.0038.78-0.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.400.2511.1145.10-0.31-0.02
MissouriSEC0.310.2544.4431.46-0.03-0.09
KentuckySEC0.000.25100.0094.460.000.22
TennesseeSEC0.000.2557.1445.530.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2277.7866.040.000.07
MississippiSEC0.350.1966.6751.450.120.01
LSUSEC0.000.1977.7861.940.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.250.190.0032.62-0.25-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1957.1447.630.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1725.0049.05-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.1733.3334.02-0.10-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.170.0035.83-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1711.1130.96-0.00-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.310.1742.8636.73-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1737.5032.05-0.00-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1775.0060.540.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1762.5059.380.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1633.3332.65-0.00-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.160.0011.08-0.00-0.13
Michigan St.B100.280.1670.0070.960.110.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1511.1143.47-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.400.1471.4377.180.170.08
Texas St.SB0.400.1460.0047.810.08-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1410.0040.34-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.400.1480.0057.560.240.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.1433.3363.92-0.100.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1460.0064.780.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.1490.9188.300.000.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1262.5078.030.000.07
Chicago St.WAC0.670.110.0011.59-0.67-0.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1166.6754.790.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1150.0059.030.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1142.8638.69-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1140.0065.07-0.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1155.5657.230.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0032.02-0.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.350.1177.7864.850.190.03
George MasonA100.000.1125.0025.93-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.1170.0066.410.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1155.5655.850.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1157.1456.000.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.1175.0069.750.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1140.0050.27-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6742.930.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.1166.6744.720.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.1172.7363.400.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0966.6773.810.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.400.0942.8644.96-0.06-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.400.0920.0033.83-0.24-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3334.47-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.350.0944.4444.49-0.04-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0980.0069.650.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.310.0950.0051.120.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0039.09-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0916.6725.01-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0987.5085.930.230.06
ClemsonACC0.310.0866.6745.880.10-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0890.0079.360.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.0875.0050.490.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0833.3341.10-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.310.0842.8639.29-0.04-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.980.0822.2245.74-0.55-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0850.0061.230.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0842.8633.13-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.0872.7357.470.000.01
ArizonaP120.280.08100.0080.930.280.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.94-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.0837.5051.76-0.080.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0862.5053.840.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.250.0844.4456.62-0.030.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.0855.5656.150.030.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0888.8984.020.000.05
Penn St.B100.000.0890.9154.340.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0860.0035.390.00-0.02
VMISC0.250.0833.3338.85-0.08-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0620.0026.45-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.020.000.03
SMUAmer0.710.0666.6770.530.240.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0628.5726.77-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.23-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0637.5048.43-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.380.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0044.19-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0020.84-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0662.5065.100.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5045.72-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0050.220.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.280.0662.5054.950.070.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.100.000.00
IUPUISum0.400.0620.0026.66-0.24-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.0650.0050.190.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.93-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.350.0687.5054.670.260.01
USC UpstateASun0.250.0666.6765.150.080.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1459.520.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.430.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.370.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0028.54-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0064.120.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.83-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3326.81-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.650.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4444.67-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.43-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0622.2236.43-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.310.0650.0032.740.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0633.3341.99-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0070.570.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.20-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3347.11-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.560.0560.0053.940.110.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0566.6741.850.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0590.0065.960.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0045.540.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0525.0029.22-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.740.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0571.4360.170.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0525.0042.82-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0555.5642.720.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.0544.4469.77-0.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0580.0063.530.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.250.0550.0033.140.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0525.0033.31-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0550.0054.960.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5072.760.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0545.4551.71-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1827.73-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0516.6727.17-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0542.8655.87-0.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0571.4361.160.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0560.0054.040.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0017.65-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0537.5064.38-0.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0571.4350.790.000.00
UtahP120.000.0577.7880.520.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0542.8635.74-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.250.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0540.0028.86-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0575.0077.280.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0015.96-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0019.38-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.480.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0066.870.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0061.890.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0355.5665.940.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.540.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6739.030.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.350.0333.3339.81-0.12-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.0383.3366.520.190.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.350.0370.0066.510.140.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0322.2227.10-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.280.0320.0047.17-0.17-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0058.490.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0033.19-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.350.0340.0049.29-0.07-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0375.0049.190.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.310.0333.3331.09-0.10-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.0357.1454.620.040.00
ToledoMAC0.280.0355.5655.960.030.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.16-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.060.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.400.03100.0077.640.400.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0387.5080.890.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.310.0350.0048.280.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.310.0366.6751.390.100.00
XavierBE0.310.0380.0071.140.190.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0322.2230.95-0.14-0.01
DaytonA100.310.0377.7869.570.170.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.0333.3340.42-0.10-0.01
FordhamA100.250.0328.5727.72-0.11-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.250.0344.4449.79-0.03-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3358.570.000.00
IonaMAAC0.310.0366.6772.270.100.01
LongwoodBSth0.250.0322.2227.64-0.14-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.250.0370.0071.650.100.01
PepperdineWCC0.250.0371.4360.450.110.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.24-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.250.0366.6757.080.080.00
UMBCAE0.250.0310.0021.35-0.20-0.02
VirginiaACC0.250.03100.0086.080.250.02
WagnerNEC0.250.0314.2933.61-0.18-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.310.0350.0037.860.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.250.0333.3351.71-0.080.00