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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:21.0
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:20
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1021.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH113-71W100%0.0
11-14Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH73-55W100%0.0
11-20The Citadel (282.0)SCH130-63W100%0.0
11-24Indiana St. (234.0)MVCN73-71W100%0.0
11-25Miami FL (41.0)ACCN56-73W100%0.0
11-27Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN73-71L0%0.0
12-1Cincinnati (12.0)AmerH54-55L0%0.0
12-5Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH91-47W100%0.0
12-8Iowa (81.0)B10A78-64L0%0.0
12-17Drake (314.0)MVCN97-80W100%0.0
12-20Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH88-60W100%0.0
12-30Texas Tech (124.0)B12H63-56W100%0.0
1-4Baylor (11.0)B12A65-63L0%0.0
1-7Texas (156.0)B12H79-70W100%0.0
1-11Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A86-96W100%0.0
1-14TCU (67.0)B12A84-77L0%0.0
1-16Kansas (4.0)B12H72-76L0%0.0
1-21Oklahoma (168.0)B12A87-92W100%0.0
1-24Kansas St. (57.0)B12H70-65W100%0.0
1-28Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA84-78L0%0.0
1-31West Virginia (24.0)B12H72-85L0%0.0
2-4Kansas (4.0)B12A89-92W100%0.0
2-7Texas (156.0)B12A67-65L0%0.0
2-11Oklahoma (168.0)B12H80-64W100%0.0
2-15Kansas St. (57.0)B12A79-87W100%0.0
2-18TCU (67.0)B12H84-71W100%0.0
2-20Texas Tech (124.0)B12A80-82W100%0.0
2-25Baylor (11.0)B12H72-69W100%0.0
2-28Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H86-83W100%0.0
3-3West Virginia (24.0)B12A87-76L0%0.0
3-9Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12N92-83W100%0.0
3-10TCU (67.0)B12N84-63W100%0.0
3-11West Virginia (24.0)B12N74-80W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1226.4926.4969.6669.6610.4110.41
West VirginiaB125.545.5477.4277.423.043.04
TCUB125.495.4956.6756.670.730.73
Oklahoma St.B125.395.3967.8667.861.921.92
Kansas St.B124.074.0764.5264.521.181.18
TexasB124.044.0432.2632.26-1.43-1.43
KansasB123.993.9990.0090.003.193.19
OklahomaB123.993.9937.9337.93-0.96-0.96
Texas TechB123.973.9760.0060.000.790.79
BaylorB123.973.9779.3179.312.322.32
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.631.6322.5822.58-0.89-0.89
DrakeMVC1.591.5921.4321.43-0.91-0.91
Nebraska OmahaSum1.581.5856.6756.670.210.21
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.581.5857.5857.580.240.24
IowaB101.571.5754.8454.840.150.15
Indiana St.MVC1.571.5734.4834.48-0.49-0.49
GonzagaWCC1.541.5496.8896.881.441.44
Savannah St.MEAC1.541.5442.3142.31-0.24-0.24
CincinnatiAmer1.521.5284.8584.851.061.06
Miami FLACC1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
The CitadelSC1.521.5231.0331.03-0.57-0.57
VanderbiltSEC1.521.5254.5554.550.140.14
Wichita St.MVC0.220.2287.8887.880.170.17
ArkansasSEC0.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
BradleyMVC0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1781.2581.250.110.11
MarylandB100.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
UMKCWAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
WashingtonP120.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1521.4321.43-0.08-0.08
WoffordSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.140.1488.2488.240.100.10
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
IndianaB100.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
VMISC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0932.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
WisconsinB100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00