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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:106.2
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:63
Current Record:11-7
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:100
Expected OOC SOS:220



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1033.70.06%
19-1142.10.27%
18-1252.11.51%
17-1362.44.76%
16-1475.911.35%
15-1591.021.90%
14-16107.826.58%
13-17126.420.84%
12-18144.610.42%
11-19161.62.30%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Missouri (44.8)SECA74-59L0%0.0
11-13Milwaukee (243.0)HorzH56-74L0%0.0
11-16Appalachian St. (266.2)SBN98-104W100%0.0
11-17Tulsa (129.7)AmerN78-80W100%0.0
11-19Boise St. (39.5)MWCN75-64W100%0.0
11-25Western Illinois (297.8)SumH70-45W100%0.0
12-4Northern Illinois (226.7)MACH94-80W100%0.0
12-7Iowa (157.0)B10H84-78W100%0.0
12-10Alcorn St. (342.9)SWACH78-58W100%0.0
12-16Northern Iowa (107.2)MVCN76-65W100%0.0
12-20Maryland Eastern Shore (334.5)MEACH55-49W100%0.0
12-29Kansas St. (67.2)B12H75-91L0%0.0
1-1Texas (46.5)B12H70-74L0%0.0
1-6Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12A96-87L0%0.0
1-9Kansas (5.9)B12A83-78L0%0.0
1-13Baylor (58.5)B12H75-65W100%0.0
1-17TCU (28.3)B12A96-73L0%0.0
1-20Texas Tech (25.9)B12H70-52W100%0.0
1-22Texas (46.5)B12A0-023%-8.2
1-27Tennessee (23.9)SECH0-041%-2.5
1-31West Virginia (15.9)B12H0-023%-8.4
2-3Baylor (58.5)B12A0-020%-9.4
2-7Texas Tech (25.9)B12A0-014%-11.9
2-10Oklahoma (22.4)B12H0-036%-4.1
2-13Kansas (5.9)B12H0-020%-9.6
2-17Kansas St. (67.2)B12A0-024%-7.9
2-21TCU (28.3)B12H0-037%-3.6
2-24West Virginia (15.9)B12A0-09%-14.8
2-27Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12H0-054%1.1
3-2Oklahoma (22.4)B12A0-017%-10.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1226.3726.3355.4142.222.85-4.10
Kansas St.B123.144.2372.2260.981.400.93
Oklahoma St.B123.074.2366.6752.791.020.24
West VirginiaB120.524.2384.2177.760.362.35
BaylorB123.234.2364.7157.240.950.61
KansasB123.154.2083.3379.022.102.44
TCUB123.074.2072.2264.511.371.22
TexasB123.154.2061.1155.490.700.46
Texas TechB123.074.2083.3373.802.052.00
OklahomaB120.444.2077.7867.500.241.47
TulsaAmer2.921.7757.8955.130.460.18
Alcorn St.SWAC2.941.7513.3326.45-2.15-0.83
MissouriSEC2.781.7564.7161.940.820.42
MilwaukeeHorz2.961.7342.1145.16-0.47-0.17
Northern IllinoisMAC2.911.7243.7540.53-0.36-0.33
Northern IowaMVC2.861.7050.0054.450.000.15
IowaB102.861.7050.0045.500.00-0.15
Western IllinoisSum2.851.7046.1536.86-0.22-0.45
TennesseeSEC0.081.6972.2269.270.030.65
Appalachian St.SB2.781.6735.2938.60-0.82-0.38
Boise St.MWC2.781.6783.3379.721.850.99
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.781.6716.6721.67-1.85-0.94
Texas A&MSEC0.150.2468.4263.980.060.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.250.2425.0028.02-0.12-0.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.310.2221.0544.26-0.18-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.160.2236.8435.55-0.04-0.06
Wichita St.Amer0.220.2278.9577.360.130.12
KentuckySEC0.070.2273.6867.950.030.08
Oral RobertsSum0.310.2130.0032.53-0.13-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.080.1968.4264.200.030.05
AmericanPat0.250.1726.3228.14-0.12-0.08
NevadaMWC0.220.1685.7182.070.160.11
AlabamaSEC0.070.1668.4258.990.030.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1652.6345.860.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.240.1572.2272.970.110.07
SouthernSWAC0.140.1427.7840.97-0.06-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.210.1447.3745.87-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.220.1452.9452.230.010.01
SMUAmer0.230.1470.0070.630.090.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.220.1427.7834.50-0.10-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.1466.6755.930.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.1461.1151.900.020.01
NorthwesternB100.070.1455.0050.370.010.00
South DakotaSum0.170.1373.6872.360.080.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.1277.7871.650.120.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.120.0010.65-0.16-0.09
CreightonBE0.240.1275.0070.690.120.05
DrakeMVC0.220.1255.0049.070.02-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.230.1145.0049.27-0.02-0.00
Green BayHorz0.230.1125.0027.94-0.11-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.150.1150.0045.900.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1161.1158.750.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.150.1145.0048.56-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.140.1161.9065.160.030.03
ToledoMAC0.070.1166.6767.690.020.04
WisconsinB100.150.1150.0046.260.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.1173.6871.550.040.05
UCFAmer0.080.1168.4260.880.030.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.117.1414.82-0.06-0.08
Arizona St.P120.150.1178.9576.130.080.06
MichiganB100.140.1175.0070.270.070.04
PittsburghACC0.070.1140.0030.87-0.01-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1135.2940.48-0.04-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.170.0927.7829.84-0.07-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.180.0947.0641.45-0.01-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.0938.8943.43-0.04-0.01
ButlerBE0.170.0966.6763.070.060.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.0921.0539.47-0.09-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.0960.0062.030.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0916.6724.29-0.04-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.0936.8444.12-0.04-0.01
UNLVMWC0.150.0973.6865.280.070.03
LSUSEC0.090.0961.1153.160.020.01
TulaneAmer0.160.0963.1657.900.040.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.0942.1145.97-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.230.090.003.12-0.23-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.080.0935.0026.14-0.02-0.04
XavierBE0.160.0985.7180.080.110.05
YaleIvy0.160.0841.1847.51-0.03-0.00
OregonP120.070.0865.0063.830.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0827.7827.30-0.03-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.0826.6729.04-0.07-0.04
Ohio St.B100.140.0880.9576.520.090.04
VCUA100.150.0860.0059.690.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0872.2258.940.000.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0841.1839.65-0.01-0.02
BelmontOVC0.140.0871.4374.650.060.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.089.5217.940.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0810.0019.62-0.06-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.0837.5037.68-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0829.4139.62-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.150.0866.6768.700.050.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.0857.8953.190.020.01
LipscombASun0.070.0852.9459.360.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.0043.34-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0866.6759.780.020.02
DenverSum0.000.0733.3336.470.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.0729.4133.94-0.08-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.100.0752.6351.700.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0744.4450.310.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0610.5316.75-0.07-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0630.0036.48-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0627.7831.120.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0665.0057.870.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.130.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0652.6347.360.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.260.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0670.0068.420.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0652.6350.250.000.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0657.8950.210.010.00
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0650.0051.360.000.00
AkronMAC0.160.0647.0644.91-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.150.0620.0041.76-0.09-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.150.0633.3334.11-0.05-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0680.0075.050.050.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0668.4257.770.030.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0694.7490.310.070.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.0637.5031.760.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.440.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0672.2274.900.040.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5058.700.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0620.0023.36-0.04-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0645.0041.34-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.98-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6746.98-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0610.5327.310.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5656.710.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0643.7554.090.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.240.020.03
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0658.8262.830.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.50-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.240.030.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0661.1156.830.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0621.0523.50-0.04-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0683.3381.350.100.04
ManhattanMAAC0.150.0647.3748.17-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.140.0670.0065.320.060.02
Southern UtahBSky0.140.0637.5033.78-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.140.0668.4257.780.050.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0689.4777.030.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0642.1132.48-0.01-0.02
MemphisAmer0.140.0665.0058.490.040.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0644.4446.640.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0643.7549.10-0.01-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0652.6351.730.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.067.6923.28-0.07-0.03
USCP120.000.0671.4368.300.000.02
IllinoisB100.140.0547.3744.27-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0590.4888.380.050.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0552.9452.620.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0544.4445.98-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0568.4255.060.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.63-0.04-0.03
DukeACC0.070.0589.4785.190.060.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0573.6869.610.030.02
FordhamA100.000.0531.5829.060.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0545.0043.49-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0580.9583.260.050.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.055.8819.37-0.06-0.03
IndianaB100.070.0557.8950.680.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0516.6724.91-0.05-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0552.6355.290.000.01
MaineAE0.070.0510.5314.86-0.06-0.04
MaristMAAC0.000.0521.0521.990.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0563.6457.640.000.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0529.4138.15-0.03-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0538.8942.600.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0511.1115.30-0.06-0.04
Penn St.B100.070.0561.9055.770.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0510.5318.34-0.06-0.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0511.1117.69-0.06-0.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0575.0067.890.040.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0542.1143.50-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0555.0050.370.010.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0568.4261.270.030.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0530.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0521.0524.71-0.04-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0511.1117.96-0.06-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0545.0045.02-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0594.4485.440.000.04
WashingtonP120.070.0570.0061.440.030.01
Washington St.P120.070.0550.0042.180.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0564.7159.980.020.01
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.620.030.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0436.8432.79-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0358.8261.440.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0366.6765.360.030.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0366.6765.530.030.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
TroySB0.000.0335.2942.760.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0338.8935.35-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0352.3848.520.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.150.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.00
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.090.000.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.420.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.80-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0352.9457.320.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.11-0.03-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0368.4260.530.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.670.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.760.040.02
PennIvy0.080.0364.7162.780.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.46-0.05-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0311.7612.810.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.67-0.03-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0389.4785.520.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0366.6768.500.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0340.0047.860.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0350.0054.850.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0344.4454.890.000.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0329.4127.740.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0380.0078.860.050.02
UtahP120.080.0361.1158.950.020.00
WagnerNEC0.080.0364.7164.540.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0344.4441.150.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.180.000.02
RutgersB100.070.0357.8947.140.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.070.0361.1164.130.010.01