live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:23.0
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:9
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1123.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Colorado (35.0)P12N68-62W100%0.0
11-16Chicago St. (348.0)WACH106-64W100%0.0
11-23Chattanooga (50.0)SCH83-63W100%0.0
11-27Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCN99-77W100%0.0
11-28Illinois (149.0)B10N73-84W100%0.0
12-1North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH84-64W100%0.0
12-7Buffalo (90.0)MACH84-63W100%0.0
12-10Iowa (28.0)B10H83-82W100%0.0
12-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH78-64W100%0.0
12-19Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCN79-81L0%0.0
12-22Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA79-81W100%0.0
12-30Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH104-84W100%0.0
1-2Oklahoma (6.0)B12A87-83L0%0.0
1-6Texas Tech (36.0)B12H76-69W100%0.0
1-9Baylor (25.0)B12H89-94L0%0.0
1-12Texas (27.0)B12A94-91L0%0.0
1-16Kansas St. (92.0)B12A63-76W100%0.0
1-18Oklahoma (6.0)B12H82-77W100%0.0
1-23TCU (174.0)B12A60-73W100%0.0
1-25Kansas (1.0)B12H85-72W100%0.0
1-30Texas A&M (18.0)SECA72-62L0%0.0
2-2West Virginia (10.0)B12H76-81L0%0.0
2-6Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A59-64W100%0.0
2-10Texas Tech (36.0)B12A85-82L0%0.0
2-13Texas (27.0)B12H85-75W100%0.0
2-16Baylor (25.0)B12A100-91L0%0.0
2-20TCU (174.0)B12H92-83W100%0.0
2-22West Virginia (10.0)B12A97-87L0%0.0
2-27Kansas St. (92.0)B12H80-61W100%0.0
2-29Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H58-50W100%0.0
3-5Kansas (1.0)B12A85-78L0%0.0
3-10Oklahoma (6.0)B12N79-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1226.3126.3165.3865.388.098.09
OklahomaB125.505.5079.3179.313.233.23
West VirginiaB124.144.1475.0075.002.072.07
Kansas St.B124.094.0954.8454.840.400.40
KansasB124.094.0990.3290.323.303.30
BaylorB124.064.0663.3363.331.081.08
TCUB124.044.0438.7138.71-0.91-0.91
TexasB124.024.0263.3363.331.071.07
Oklahoma St.B124.014.0140.0040.00-0.80-0.80
Texas TechB124.014.0162.0762.070.970.97
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.711.7125.0025.00-0.85-0.85
Texas A&MSEC1.711.7175.7675.760.880.88
IllinoisB101.691.6945.4545.45-0.15-0.15
IowaB101.641.6470.0070.000.650.65
Coppin St.MEAC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
Virginia TechACC1.631.6359.3859.380.310.31
CincinnatiAmer1.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
ChattanoogaSC1.591.5987.1087.101.181.18
Chicago St.WAC1.591.593.573.57-1.47-1.47
North Dakota St.Sum1.591.5960.0060.000.320.32
BuffaloMAC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
ColoradoP121.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
Northern IowaMVC1.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
MinnesotaB100.220.2225.8125.81-0.11-0.11
WashingtonP120.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1777.4277.420.100.10
HawaiiBW0.170.1783.3383.330.110.11
Washington St.P120.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
WisconsinB100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
LSUSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
FloridaSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
MissouriSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
RichmondA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1029.1729.17-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
AuburnSEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
OhioMAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.050.05
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0235.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01