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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:39.6
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:53
Current Record:17-6
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:3.74%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-613.80.16%
24-718.32.26%
23-824.211.14%
22-931.526.53%
21-1040.432.54%
20-1151.320.83%
19-1263.85.92%
18-1377.80.58%
17-1499.00.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Lehigh (109.7)PatH86-77W100%0.0
11-15Drake (135.2)MVCA74-65L0%0.0
11-20Western Carolina (259.9)SCH92-60W100%0.0
11-22Northern Colorado (251.5)BSkyH90-82W100%0.0
11-25Providence (146.8)BEN64-54W100%0.0
11-26Rice (177.4)CUSAN63-90W100%0.0
11-30Northern Iowa (60.5)MVCH62-69L0%0.0
12-3Michigan (25.3)B10A76-66L0%0.0
12-6Prairie View A&M (281.7)SWACH84-59W100%0.0
12-9Iowa (139.5)B10H86-76W100%0.0
12-18Central Michigan (271.4)MACH59-52W100%0.0
12-21Lipscomb (208.1)ASunH81-64W100%0.0
12-31Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH67-65W100%0.0
1-4Texas (58.4)B12H77-71W100%0.0
1-7Texas A&M (154.9)B12A50-74W100%0.0
1-11Missouri (11.7)B12H69-76L0%0.0
1-14Kansas (8.8)B12A82-73L0%0.0
1-18Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12H71-68W100%0.0
1-21Texas Tech (233.7)B12A52-76W100%0.0
1-24Texas (58.4)B12A62-55L0%0.0
1-28Kansas (8.8)B12H72-64W100%0.0
1-31Kansas St. (45.9)B12H72-70W100%0.0
2-4Oklahoma (89.8)B12A70-77W100%0.0
2-7Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12A0-057%1.9
2-11Texas A&M (154.9)B12H0-082%9.9
2-13Baylor (6.8)B12A0-022%-8.4
2-18Oklahoma (89.8)B12H0-074%7.0
2-22Texas Tech (233.7)B12H0-095%18.3
2-25Kansas St. (45.9)B12A0-030%-5.7
2-29Missouri (11.7)B12A0-017%-10.3
3-3Baylor (6.8)B12H0-044%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1226.3126.3272.0467.0811.608.99
TexasB124.794.1161.9062.161.141.00
BaylorB120.644.1190.9185.050.522.88
Texas A&MB122.664.1055.0048.890.27-0.09
KansasB124.744.0880.9580.352.932.48
MissouriB122.714.0890.9186.892.213.01
Kansas St.B122.664.0876.1970.651.391.69
OklahomaB122.664.0861.9057.670.630.63
Oklahoma St.B122.574.0847.6242.07-0.12-0.65
Texas TechB122.664.0833.3327.67-0.89-1.82
Northern IowaMVC2.511.8160.8760.170.550.37
RiceCUSA2.371.7550.0048.180.00-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.221.7236.8442.30-0.59-0.27
IowaB102.321.6956.5251.090.300.04
DrakeMVC2.311.6950.0048.310.00-0.06
Western CarolinaSC2.271.6736.3638.57-0.62-0.38
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.231.6752.3860.160.110.34
Northern ColoradoBSky2.271.6731.5832.80-0.84-0.57
ProvidenceBE2.221.6459.0951.950.400.06
MichiganB102.221.6471.4365.660.950.51
Central MichiganMAC2.171.6130.0035.43-0.87-0.47
LehighPat2.171.6177.2777.591.190.89
LipscombASun2.171.6145.4545.38-0.20-0.15
SouthernSWAC0.310.2545.0046.13-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.2218.1821.13-0.13-0.13
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.1917.3924.41-0.13-0.10
NorthwesternB100.100.1961.9055.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1716.6723.02-0.10-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1719.0525.52-0.06-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1731.8242.13-0.06-0.03
GramblingSWAC0.150.1715.0015.73-0.11-0.11
BradleyMVC0.190.1624.0024.86-0.10-0.08
Indiana St.MVC0.230.1656.5254.220.030.01
Missouri St.MVC0.230.1654.1757.200.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1634.7832.06-0.04-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.150.1656.5255.200.020.02
IllinoisB100.090.1672.7364.430.040.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1417.6527.10-0.10-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1447.0650.75-0.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1462.5062.060.030.03
CreightonMVC0.230.1487.5085.410.170.10
PurdueB100.190.1365.2260.580.060.03
West VirginiaBE0.050.1365.2265.170.020.04
Ohio St.B100.190.1386.9685.460.140.09
UCLAP120.240.1354.5556.790.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1233.3333.88-0.05-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1230.0033.20-0.06-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1130.0037.30-0.06-0.03
HoustonCUSA0.050.1147.6244.63-0.00-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.1138.1037.86-0.02-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1143.4843.31-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.100.1160.8759.050.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1120.0019.96-0.09-0.07
St. John'sBE0.150.1143.4840.28-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.090.1145.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.1178.2672.340.030.05
North FloridaASun0.140.1145.8346.68-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1182.6180.420.060.07
TempleA100.200.1177.2775.060.110.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.118.7011.67-0.08-0.08
MercerASun0.090.1170.8371.640.040.05
NavyPat0.090.119.5213.19-0.08-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1126.3229.79-0.07-0.04
Michigan St.B100.140.1176.1972.910.070.05
AlabamaSEC0.100.1168.1869.100.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.150.1169.5765.150.060.03
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1180.7780.750.060.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.1110.0014.93-0.04-0.08
MinnesotaB100.190.1169.5761.310.080.02
NebraskaB100.100.1152.3846.680.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.100.1150.0042.830.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.140.1118.1822.22-0.09-0.06
IndianaB100.140.1175.0075.780.070.05
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1171.4373.350.060.05
North TexasSB0.140.1150.0050.010.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1155.0054.480.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.1141.6738.67-0.02-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.090.1176.1975.940.050.05
WisconsinB100.140.1175.0073.970.070.05
Notre DameBE0.100.1065.2262.650.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.1080.9577.380.090.06
South FloridaBE0.140.1054.5548.600.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0969.5768.900.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0850.0048.900.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.150.0859.0957.930.030.01
MemphisCUSA0.150.0869.5771.510.060.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0840.9138.38-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.100.0827.2727.21-0.05-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.0819.0522.37-0.09-0.05
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0875.0076.000.030.04
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.0857.1449.540.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.100.0882.6177.630.070.05
Holy CrossPat0.140.0840.9142.05-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.085.267.30-0.09-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0840.9139.56-0.03-0.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0890.9187.740.040.06
DavidsonSC0.140.0876.1976.760.070.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.0870.8364.420.060.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0812.5013.44-0.07-0.06
CincinnatiBE0.050.0869.5765.470.020.02
PittsburghBE0.100.0860.8758.160.020.01
DukeACC0.140.0886.3683.090.100.05
North CarolinaACC0.140.0886.9683.160.110.05
Old DominionCAA0.090.0860.0058.290.020.01
TowsonCAA0.140.084.005.26-0.13-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.140.0820.8320.60-0.08-0.05
VillanovaBE0.050.0845.4546.08-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0640.9144.03-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0670.0073.280.020.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0645.0041.76-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0613.6416.14-0.08-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.050.0642.8645.80-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0680.0076.840.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0650.0056.760.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0666.6760.800.030.01
TulaneCUSA0.100.0661.9058.590.020.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0679.1775.980.060.03
AmericanPat0.050.0665.2263.790.010.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0635.0039.29-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0640.9141.72-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0655.0057.410.010.01
BelmontASun0.090.0669.5773.280.040.03
BucknellPat0.050.0673.9175.000.020.03
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0627.2735.02-0.04-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0630.4329.50-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0652.3852.860.000.00
ElonSC0.050.0650.0047.590.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0617.3922.00-0.06-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.100.0671.4369.050.040.02
LafayettePat0.050.0643.4842.95-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.068.708.99-0.04-0.05
NC GreensboroSC0.090.0634.7833.46-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0633.3335.26-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0654.5556.090.000.01
StetsonASun0.050.0631.8231.31-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0638.1040.81-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0640.9142.96-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.0563.6456.710.030.01
OhioMAC0.100.0581.8277.200.060.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0556.5253.100.010.00
VirginiaACC0.100.0581.8276.800.060.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.0542.8641.13-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.090.058.3310.86-0.08-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0527.7829.87-0.04-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.058.7012.13-0.08-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0538.1042.78-0.00-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0547.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0555.0060.330.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0542.1149.81-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0534.7832.08-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0519.0521.29-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.030.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0585.7178.050.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0528.5726.30-0.02-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0527.7829.58-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.050.0577.2777.670.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0569.5768.290.020.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0557.1460.750.010.01
TroySB0.050.0528.5730.17-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0547.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0550.0048.170.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.050.004.02-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
BrownIvy0.090.0527.2723.80-0.04-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0575.0074.610.020.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0536.3639.72-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0595.8392.570.090.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0537.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0525.0023.75-0.05-0.03
North DakotaGWC0.090.0533.3341.31-0.03-0.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0563.6463.160.030.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0547.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.090.0525.0025.13-0.05-0.03
SyracuseBE0.090.0595.8392.010.090.04
Texas St.Slnd0.090.0522.2227.62-0.05-0.02
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0376.1970.730.030.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.000.0371.4366.600.000.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0344.4441.71-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.03-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.230.010.01
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0385.7182.180.000.02
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0368.1867.910.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0368.4266.450.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.02
CharlotteA100.050.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
CornellIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0334.7838.77-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0034.15-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0368.1867.640.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0331.8233.83-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.150.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.71-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0321.7424.58-0.03-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
The CitadelSC0.000.039.5211.44-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0382.6184.570.030.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0334.7834.61-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.000.0380.0078.060.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0352.6348.410.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0356.0055.650.010.00
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
ConnecticutBE0.000.0368.1863.990.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0378.2672.660.030.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.010.01