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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Iowa St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:7.0
Current RPI:7
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:88



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-77.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH95-62W100%0.0
11-12Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH80-50W100%0.0
11-17Michigan (11.0)B10H77-70W100%0.0
11-20BYU (31.0)WCCA88-90W100%0.0
11-25UMKC (248.0)WACH110-51W100%0.0
12-2Auburn (169.0)SECH99-70W100%0.0
12-7Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCN91-82W100%0.0
12-13Iowa (56.0)B10H85-82W100%0.0
12-22George Mason (164.0)A10N67-79W100%0.0
12-23Akron (93.0)MACN60-83W100%0.0
12-25Boise St. (82.0)MWCN66-70W100%0.0
12-31Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH99-63W100%0.0
1-4Texas Tech (121.0)B12A62-73W100%0.0
1-7Baylor (30.0)B12H87-72W100%0.0
1-11Oklahoma (26.0)B12A87-82L0%0.0
1-13Kansas (3.0)B12H70-77L0%0.0
1-18Texas (36.0)B12A86-76L0%0.0
1-25Kansas St. (51.0)B12H81-75W100%0.0
1-29Kansas (3.0)B12A92-81L0%0.0
2-1Oklahoma (26.0)B12H81-75W100%0.0
2-3Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A97-98W100%0.0
2-8TCU (212.0)B12H84-69W100%0.0
2-10West Virginia (88.0)B12A102-77L0%0.0
2-15Texas Tech (121.0)B12H70-64W100%0.0
2-18Texas (36.0)B12H85-76W100%0.0
2-22TCU (212.0)B12A60-71W100%0.0
2-26West Virginia (88.0)B12H83-66W100%0.0
3-1Kansas St. (51.0)B12A80-73L0%0.0
3-4Baylor (30.0)B12A74-61L0%0.0
3-8Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12H85-81W100%0.0
3-13Kansas St. (51.0)B12N91-85W100%0.0
3-14Kansas (3.0)B12N83-94W100%0.0
3-15Baylor (30.0)B12N74-65W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Iowa St.B1226.4926.4981.2081.2016.5316.53
BaylorB125.545.5470.0070.002.222.22
KansasB125.445.4473.3373.332.542.54
Kansas St.B125.395.3965.5265.521.671.67
TexasB124.074.0770.9770.971.711.71
OklahomaB124.054.0573.3373.331.891.89
Oklahoma St.B124.044.0467.7467.741.441.44
TCUB123.983.9825.9325.93-1.92-1.92
Texas TechB123.973.9746.6746.67-0.26-0.26
West VirginiaB123.973.9753.3353.330.260.26
George MasonA101.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
IowaB101.591.5963.3363.330.420.42
MichiganB101.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.561.5655.5655.560.170.17
BYUWCC1.561.5668.7568.750.590.59
AkronMAC1.541.5465.6265.620.480.48
Northern IowaMVC1.541.5451.7251.720.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.541.5424.1424.14-0.80-0.80
Northern IllinoisMAC1.541.5446.6746.67-0.10-0.10
AuburnSEC1.521.5248.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
UMKCWAC1.521.5235.7135.71-0.43-0.43
South CarolinaSEC0.260.2641.1841.18-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
GonzagaWCC0.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
ColoradoP120.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1724.0024.00-0.09-0.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.170.1714.8114.81-0.12-0.12
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
IdahoWAC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
ToledoMAC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
GeorgetownBE0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
TowsonCAA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
OhioMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1093.1093.100.080.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0964.2964.290.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MemphisAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00