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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:117.3
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:150
Current SOS:24
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-539.90.09%
24-647.50.60%
23-757.61.94%
22-867.65.18%
21-980.09.68%
20-1093.014.78%
19-11106.918.07%
18-12122.918.20%
17-13139.414.25%
16-14157.59.76%
15-15176.04.31%
14-16194.82.13%
13-17215.10.76%
12-18229.60.15%
11-19255.70.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11The Citadel (299.0)SCH81-68W100%0.0
11-14Coastal Carolina (218.5)SBA64-71W100%0.0
11-17Boise St. (108.9)MWCH60-47W100%0.0
11-18UCF (46.2)AmerH40-60L0%0.0
11-20Wake Forest (52.1)ACCH61-78L0%0.0
11-23Villanova (5.1)BEA63-47L0%0.0
11-27USC Upstate (262.6)ASunH72-60W100%0.0
12-1Navy (261.6)PatH70-64W100%0.0
12-4Davidson (68.7)A10H76-61W100%0.0
12-15East Carolina (173.0)AmerA0-044%-1.8
12-19LSU (101.1)SECA0-031%-6.1
12-22Western Carolina (271.5)SCA0-084%11.8
12-31Elon (150.8)CAAA0-047%-1.0
1-2Delaware (225.1)CAAA0-060%2.9
1-5Towson (154.9)CAAH0-064%4.3
1-7Hofstra (221.4)CAAH0-079%9.6
1-12James Madison (264.0)CAAA0-064%4.4
1-14William & Mary (171.5)CAAH0-069%6.1
1-19UNC Wilmington (48.9)CAAH0-042%-2.4
1-21James Madison (264.0)CAAH0-081%10.7
1-26Towson (154.9)CAAA0-043%-2.0
1-28Drexel (217.5)CAAA0-061%3.3
2-2UNC Wilmington (48.9)CAAA0-023%-8.7
2-4Elon (150.8)CAAH0-067%5.3
2-9Northeastern (190.9)CAAH0-072%7.1
2-11William & Mary (171.5)CAAA0-049%-0.2
2-16Hofstra (221.4)CAAA0-061%3.3
2-18Northeastern (190.9)CAAA0-053%0.8
2-23Delaware (225.1)CAAH0-078%9.2
2-25Drexel (217.5)CAAH0-079%9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA28.0726.3656.4161.303.605.96
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2783.3378.000.002.39
DrexelCAA0.004.2450.0042.260.00-0.66
HofstraCAA0.004.2455.5644.840.00-0.44
James MadisonCAA0.004.2412.5030.38-0.00-1.66
NortheasternCAA0.004.2444.4443.67-0.00-0.54
TowsonCAA0.004.2442.8654.33-0.000.37
DelawareCAA0.004.2450.0042.470.00-0.64
ElonCAA0.004.2462.5055.510.000.47
William & MaryCAA0.004.2333.3346.50-0.00-0.30
East CarolinaAmer0.001.7870.0049.810.00-0.01
The CitadelSC5.861.7657.1431.440.84-0.65
Wake ForestACC6.211.7575.0053.643.110.13
UCFAmer5.861.7583.3374.973.910.87
Western CarolinaSC0.001.7328.5723.26-0.00-0.92
VillanovaBE6.261.72100.0084.236.261.18
USC UpstateASun5.901.7050.0043.140.00-0.23
Coastal CarolinaSB5.861.6928.5740.37-2.51-0.33
LSUSEC0.001.6971.4346.950.00-0.10
Boise St.MWC5.561.6757.1458.920.790.30
DavidsonA105.561.6783.3365.243.700.51
NavyPat5.561.6737.5039.93-1.39-0.34
CharlotteCUSA1.010.2362.5050.630.250.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.2257.1433.200.00-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2062.5066.500.000.07
PresbyterianBSth0.690.1828.5724.39-0.30-0.09
DukeACC0.000.1790.0080.060.000.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.310.1771.4355.570.130.02
WoffordSC0.000.170.0034.69-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.400.1742.8647.68-0.06-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1783.3379.920.000.10
Appalachian St.SB0.400.1716.6730.09-0.26-0.07
UMBCAE0.310.1780.0054.190.190.01
La SalleA100.310.1757.1456.540.040.02
High PointBSth0.310.1737.5044.87-0.08-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1742.8655.07-0.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.660.1716.6735.90-0.44-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.000.1737.5043.19-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1642.8644.90-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.740.1525.0026.46-0.37-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.660.1562.5071.850.160.06
ChattanoogaSC0.350.1575.0074.590.170.07
FurmanSC0.310.1542.8657.52-0.040.02
GeorgetownBE0.310.1455.5647.600.03-0.01
RichmondA100.310.1450.0048.500.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.310.1428.5734.49-0.13-0.04
LafayettePat0.310.1442.8635.40-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.400.1471.4354.560.170.01
George MasonA100.000.1462.5046.490.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1475.0070.350.000.06
PennIvy0.620.1433.3356.66-0.210.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1475.0075.180.000.07
TempleAmer0.000.1475.0064.820.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.1266.6770.400.000.05
ColgatePat0.660.1212.5030.11-0.49-0.05
SamfordSC0.000.1262.5056.520.000.02
VMISC0.000.120.0016.56-0.00-0.08
CampbellBSth0.660.1242.8639.64-0.09-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.350.1257.1451.740.050.00
AuburnSEC0.310.1285.7157.280.220.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1137.5025.74-0.00-0.05
HartfordAE0.000.1122.2226.44-0.00-0.05
IonaMAAC0.000.1157.1464.540.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.1142.8645.85-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1177.7871.770.000.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1162.5074.160.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.740.1175.0047.520.37-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1175.0054.480.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.310.1142.8645.34-0.04-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.760.00-0.04
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.400.000.05
SMUAmer0.350.1166.6766.650.120.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1150.0037.700.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0962.5060.090.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0987.5075.690.000.05
North FloridaASun0.000.0912.5034.49-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0914.2942.77-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.310.0970.0070.530.120.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0955.5642.150.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0937.5028.47-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0975.0072.930.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0857.1448.110.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0812.5028.64-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0842.8643.78-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.350.080.0017.16-0.35-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.350.0850.0045.130.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0871.4363.080.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0887.5082.220.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0850.0066.380.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0877.7864.250.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0887.5082.440.000.05
MemphisAmer0.000.0875.0056.270.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0812.5023.82-0.00-0.04
XavierBE0.000.0887.5070.880.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0888.8978.430.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.02-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0611.1132.47-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.740.0655.5637.870.08-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.500.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.120.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.67-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.090.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2935.05-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0657.1443.930.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.55-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0061.350.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.44-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0637.5061.81-0.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.60-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.50-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
Ohio St.B100.310.0677.7862.010.170.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.860.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0044.180.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.590.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.57-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6753.730.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.63-0.000.02
MassachusettsA100.400.0671.4358.170.170.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0677.7866.740.000.02
MissouriSEC0.400.0662.5044.840.10-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.910.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0687.5069.040.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.43-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.99-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0628.5738.92-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0633.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0662.5052.400.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.92-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0614.2923.40-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2232.01-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.030.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0660.0058.780.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5075.730.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0677.7872.210.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0070.570.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0657.1450.790.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0045.49-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0687.5050.250.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0644.4438.15-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3350.05-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.820.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0076.970.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.830.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.540.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0571.4337.680.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0577.7859.940.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0544.4436.20-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.310.0320.0038.50-0.19-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0355.5649.660.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.350.0375.0071.330.170.01
BryantNEC0.310.0322.2246.51-0.17-0.00
BYUWCC0.350.0362.5067.080.090.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0325.0043.29-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.270.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.77-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0388.8977.470.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.350.0325.0045.82-0.17-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.310.0357.1459.020.040.01
OregonP120.350.0375.0072.800.170.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0357.1450.730.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.260.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.350.030.0025.31-0.35-0.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.07-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.250.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8967.470.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.400.0342.8637.05-0.06-0.01
NorthwesternB100.310.0375.0066.090.150.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0048.980.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.400.0316.6738.83-0.26-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.180.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0362.5062.080.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.310.0320.0035.46-0.19-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0355.5646.770.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0377.7886.650.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.76-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.310.0377.7877.640.170.01