College of Charleston

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	133.0
Current RPI:	133
Expected SOS:	258
Current SOS:	258
Current Record:	24-9
Expected Record:	24-9
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-3
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	123
Expected OOC SOS:	159

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-9	133.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	75-58	W	100%
11-15	St. John's (96.0)	BE	H	53-64	L	0%
11-16	Auburn (252.0)	SEC	H	51-55	L	0%
11-18	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	H	71-67	W	100%
11-24	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	59-63	W	100%
11-28	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	67-72	W	100%
12-1	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	54-56	W	100%
12-4	Louisville (3.0)	BE	H	38-80	L	0%
12-18	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	76-65	W	100%
12-22	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	60-51	W	100%
12-29	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	50-62	W	100%
12-31	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	75-85	W	100%
1-5	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	60-56	W	100%
1-10	Samford (291.0)	SC	H	57-62	L	0%
1-12	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	86-59	W	100%
1-14	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	69-73	W	100%
1-17	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	51-47	L	0%
1-19	Davidson (61.0)	SC	A	77-68	L	0%
1-24	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	69-54	W	100%
1-26	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	50-79	W	100%
1-30	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	72-59	W	100%
2-2	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	81-59	W	100%
2-7	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	65-69	W	100%
2-9	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	68-71	W	100%
2-14	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	59-75	L	0%
2-16	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	69-60	W	100%
2-20	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	65-67	W	100%
2-23	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	52-55	L	0%
2-28	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	55-50	W	100%
3-2	Furman (343.0)	SC	A	50-74	W	100%
3-9	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	N	78-70	W	100%
3-10	Elon (174.0)	SC	N	60-68	W	100%
3-11	Davidson (61.0)	SC	N	74-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
College of Charleston	SC	26.37	26.37	69.36	69.36	10.21	10.21
Davidson	SC	5.35	5.35	75.86	75.86	2.77	2.77
Georgia Southern	SC	3.93	3.93	37.93	37.93	-0.95	-0.95
The Citadel	SC	3.92	3.92	23.08	23.08	-2.11	-2.11
Western Carolina	SC	3.91	3.91	41.38	41.38	-0.67	-0.67
Furman	SC	3.90	3.90	18.52	18.52	-2.46	-2.46
Wofford	SC	3.88	3.88	41.38	41.38	-0.67	-0.67
Samford	SC	3.84	3.84	31.03	31.03	-1.46	-1.46
Elon	SC	3.83	3.83	67.86	67.86	1.37	1.37
Chattanooga	SC	3.79	3.79	39.29	39.29	-0.81	-0.81
Appalachian St.	SC	2.48	2.48	46.43	46.43	-0.18	-0.18
NC Greensboro	SC	2.44	2.44	25.00	25.00	-1.22	-1.22
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.73	1.73	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Charleston Southern	BSth	1.68	1.68	59.26	59.26	0.31	0.31
Coastal Carolina	BSth	1.67	1.67	44.00	44.00	-0.20	-0.20
Auburn	SEC	1.59	1.59	25.81	25.81	-0.77	-0.77
Louisville	BE	1.59	1.59	84.85	84.85	1.11	1.11
Towson	CAA	1.56	1.56	58.62	58.62	0.27	0.27
Boston College	ACC	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	1.56	1.56	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
St. John's	BE	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	1.54	1.54	17.24	17.24	-1.01	-1.01
Vermont	AE	1.54	1.54	67.74	67.74	0.55	0.55
Marist	MAAC	1.52	1.52	33.33	33.33	-0.51	-0.51
Presbyterian	BSth	0.30	0.30	17.24	17.24	-0.19	-0.19
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.26	0.26	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.26	0.26	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.25	0.25	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
NC Asheville	BSth	0.24	0.24	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.19	0.19	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
High Point	BSth	0.18	0.18	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	10.00	10.00	-0.10	-0.10
Wake Forest	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Boston University	AE	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.05	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	93.75	93.75	0.08	0.08
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.07	79.31	79.31	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00