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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:184.8
Current RPI:215
Expected SOS:139
Current SOS:197
Current Record:5-6
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1079.30.03%
20-1191.40.24%
19-1299.70.79%
18-13117.62.64%
17-14132.66.11%
16-15148.711.48%
15-16166.217.18%
14-17183.820.40%
13-18201.318.36%
12-19219.712.94%
11-20237.46.56%
10-21254.72.33%
9-22271.40.72%
8-23283.60.17%
7-24294.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Furman (279.1)SCA40-75W100%0.0
11-17Gardner Webb (166.3)BSthH67-80L0%0.0
11-20Connecticut (72.3)AmerN65-57L0%0.0
11-21Texas A&M (71.4)SECN50-59L0%0.0
11-23George Mason (191.7)A10N60-61W100%0.0
11-29West Virginia (19.3)B12A86-57L0%0.0
12-2The Citadel (315.1)SCH59-55W100%0.0
12-11South Carolina St. (280.6)MEACH50-47W100%0.0
12-14Campbell (226.0)BSthH58-47W100%0.0
12-16Charlotte (85.6)CUSAA90-85L0%0.0
12-20Davidson (27.6)A10H68-80L0%0.0
12-22LSU (69.7)SECA0-015%-12.3
12-30Miami FL (42.5)ACCA0-09%-15.4
1-3William & Mary (102.8)CAAA0-024%-8.3
1-5James Madison (147.4)CAAH0-062%3.5
1-8Hofstra (76.2)CAAH0-032%-5.5
1-10Delaware (331.5)CAAH0-093%17.4
1-14Elon (183.1)CAAA0-034%-4.8
1-17Northeastern (123.6)CAAA0-026%-7.5
1-21UNC Wilmington (113.7)CAAH0-055%1.5
1-24Drexel (237.1)CAAA0-042%-2.4
1-29Towson (220.1)CAAA0-047%-0.8
1-31Delaware (331.5)CAAA0-078%9.0
2-5William & Mary (102.8)CAAH0-050%0.0
2-7Drexel (237.1)CAAH0-070%6.0
2-12UNC Wilmington (113.7)CAAA0-028%-6.9
2-15Towson (220.1)CAAH0-074%7.5
2-18Elon (183.1)CAAH0-062%3.5
2-21James Madison (147.4)CAAA0-034%-4.9
2-25Hofstra (76.2)CAAA0-012%-13.9
2-28Northeastern (123.6)CAAH0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA27.7826.3541.1844.53-4.90-2.88
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.254.1657.1455.080.040.42
James MadisonCAA0.284.1463.6455.890.080.49
ElonCAA0.214.1344.4450.99-0.020.08
DrexelCAA0.004.1322.2235.25-0.00-1.22
HofstraCAA0.004.1170.0076.040.002.14
NortheasternCAA0.004.1170.0060.960.000.90
TowsonCAA0.004.1160.0047.720.00-0.19
DelawareCAA0.004.110.008.12-0.00-3.44
William & MaryCAA0.004.1057.1456.620.000.54
CampbellBSth4.801.8128.5745.56-2.06-0.16
DavidsonA105.041.7887.5076.483.780.94
CharlotteCUSA4.801.7550.0062.880.000.45
Gardner WebbBSth4.801.7328.5748.40-2.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.491.7280.0063.190.290.45
Miami FLACC0.411.7281.8265.190.260.52
FurmanSC4.831.7025.0033.03-2.41-0.58
George MasonA104.751.7037.5031.29-1.19-0.63
West VirginiaB125.081.6990.0069.084.070.65
The CitadelSC4.551.6716.6733.45-3.03-0.55
Texas A&MSEC4.551.6666.6759.991.520.33
ConnecticutAmer4.751.6442.8656.63-0.680.22
South Carolina St.MEAC4.551.6130.0036.67-1.82-0.43
RichmondA100.000.2860.0057.700.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.540.2590.0082.310.430.16
VMISC0.530.2433.3338.93-0.18-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.2320.0035.33-0.00-0.07
LibertyBSth0.250.2325.0035.39-0.13-0.07
High PointBSth0.000.2366.6761.790.000.05
La SalleA100.000.2254.5552.730.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.2263.6465.220.000.07
WoffordSC0.000.2177.7875.550.000.11
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.410.1757.1470.520.060.07
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1633.3337.91-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1663.6456.430.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.160.0014.00-0.28-0.12
SamfordSC0.250.1533.3330.28-0.08-0.06
MercerSC0.000.1544.4444.02-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.210.1414.2944.44-0.15-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.1418.1830.76-0.13-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.280.1436.3646.72-0.08-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1420.0025.85-0.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.000.1455.5658.650.000.02
George WashingtonA100.210.1466.6765.500.070.04
DukeACC0.540.14100.0087.090.540.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1416.6735.27-0.00-0.04
NavyPat0.320.1420.0022.16-0.19-0.08
VirginiaACC0.210.14100.0086.080.210.10
MissouriSEC0.000.1440.0032.26-0.00-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.320.1454.5541.980.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1354.5552.490.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.1366.6754.130.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1354.5559.560.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1320.0027.29-0.00-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.320.1240.0049.39-0.06-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1271.4363.770.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1220.0040.93-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1242.8649.51-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.1225.0044.27-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.250.1172.7374.850.110.06
HowardMEAC0.000.1130.0043.74-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1160.0043.160.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.1172.7375.740.000.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.1177.7865.110.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1116.6726.98-0.00-0.05
DaytonA100.510.1180.0069.770.310.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0084.930.000.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1118.1827.33-0.00-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1142.8626.99-0.00-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1137.5039.65-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.320.1160.0038.030.06-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.460.1137.5034.64-0.11-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.1137.5041.94-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.210.1190.0055.360.170.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1150.0039.790.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1140.0041.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.210.1075.0061.480.100.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0980.0067.830.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.008.60-0.00-0.07
CornellIvy0.250.0955.5648.710.03-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0937.5034.06-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0928.5727.11-0.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.250.0960.0069.200.050.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0860.0033.270.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.210.0891.6755.310.170.01
StanfordP120.000.0866.6758.320.000.01
ClemsonACC0.280.0860.0043.890.06-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0810.0018.05-0.23-0.05
TCUB120.250.08100.0067.700.250.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0842.8649.02-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.280.0820.0042.59-0.17-0.01
Ohio St.B100.280.0881.8282.250.180.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.0855.5660.980.030.02
ManhattanMAAC0.250.0830.0038.01-0.10-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0870.0062.710.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.210.0870.0059.220.080.01
MonmouthMAAC0.210.0850.0058.370.000.01
BaylorB120.230.0890.0073.240.180.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0866.6767.930.000.03
Kansas St.B120.230.0863.6440.190.06-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0870.0052.600.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.210.0866.6766.010.070.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0855.5646.290.00-0.01
TexasB120.280.0890.9179.980.230.05
Boston CollegeACC0.210.0866.6742.600.07-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.210.0822.2236.53-0.11-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.88-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7870.890.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.000.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.61-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.71-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.410.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.310.000.03
HoustonAmer0.210.0662.5041.790.05-0.01
UCFAmer0.250.0655.5635.900.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0616.6733.39-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0916.15-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.65-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0057.820.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0663.6442.810.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.59-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.970.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0068.770.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0023.69-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.480.0572.7362.220.220.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0570.0064.680.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0560.0062.070.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0572.7375.710.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0588.8955.860.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0056.620.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0518.1825.30-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0580.0072.200.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0562.5059.050.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0096.290.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0544.4437.40-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.230.0555.5673.740.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0566.6758.210.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0525.0037.03-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0530.0041.69-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0540.0048.02-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0540.0037.64-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0580.0053.260.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0585.7172.910.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0590.0065.480.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0516.6743.20-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0590.0070.680.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0533.3345.04-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.81-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0588.8963.020.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0562.5058.080.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0544.4436.80-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3355.24-0.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0530.0036.69-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0581.8273.180.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0512.5030.56-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0550.0051.710.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0555.5652.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.320.0350.0055.890.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
ArizonaP120.280.03100.0082.630.280.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.250.0377.7870.160.140.01
PurdueB100.000.0366.6759.370.000.01
Seton HallBE0.280.0390.0067.380.230.01
UC DavisBW0.250.0387.5068.000.190.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0314.2915.15-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.030.0011.94-0.21-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.210.0366.6762.580.070.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4549.62-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.250.0325.0052.35-0.130.00
NiagaraMAAC0.250.0312.5029.51-0.19-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.260.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.210.0350.0054.170.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.280.0312.5026.89-0.21-0.01
StetsonASun0.250.0310.0027.17-0.20-0.01
WashingtonP120.210.03100.0075.440.210.01
Northern IowaMVC0.250.0390.9183.090.210.02
PrincetonIvy0.250.0333.3341.02-0.08-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.890.000.00
Arizona St.P120.230.0354.5548.490.02-0.00
BryantNEC0.280.0328.5745.89-0.12-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.620.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.230.0320.0046.47-0.14-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.230.0316.6740.27-0.15-0.01
YaleIvy0.280.0366.6761.820.090.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.0345.4543.23-0.02-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4450.41-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0077.010.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0375.0065.140.000.01
LafayettePat0.210.0366.6767.650.070.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.520.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0320.0044.37-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.210.0333.3343.14-0.07-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6777.120.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0051.780.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0057.390.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0031.89-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0058.120.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0360.0071.280.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5035.74-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.60-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0337.5044.33-0.00-0.00