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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:103.4
Current RPI:101
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:112
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:161



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-971.02.40%
18-1082.114.95%
17-1194.932.67%
16-12110.032.46%
15-13127.214.95%
14-14144.62.56%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Carolina St. (209.0)MEACH74-54W100%0.0
11-16Navy (180.0)PatA58-72W100%0.0
11-21Davidson (71.1)A10A82-81L0%0.0
11-24Coastal Carolina (167.8)BSthH61-67L0%0.0
11-27Western Carolina (223.6)SCH57-56W100%0.0
11-30LSU (86.5)SECH70-58W100%0.0
12-5The Citadel (307.6)SCA74-82W100%0.0
12-7East Carolina (198.1)AmerH77-73W100%0.0
12-19Miami FL (10.7)ACCA85-63L0%0.0
12-22Campbell (323.3)BSthA68-86W100%0.0
12-31James Madison (78.2)CAAA62-65W100%0.0
1-2William & Mary (50.7)CAAA78-70L0%0.0
1-7Hofstra (67.4)CAAH72-61W100%0.0
1-9Drexel (274.6)CAAA61-54L0%0.0
1-14William & Mary (50.7)CAAH61-63L0%0.0
1-16Elon (139.8)CAAH64-65L0%0.0
1-21Towson (166.5)CAAA37-40W100%0.0
1-23Delaware (268.7)CAAH59-58W100%0.0
1-28Northeastern (140.7)CAAH68-61W100%0.0
1-30UNC Wilmington (58.5)CAAA65-55L0%0.0
2-4Towson (166.5)CAAH65-47W100%0.0
2-6Drexel (274.6)CAAH60-38W100%0.0
2-11James Madison (78.2)CAAH52-56L0%0.0
2-13Elon (139.8)CAAA0-050%0.0
2-18Delaware (268.7)CAAA0-074%7.1
2-20UNC Wilmington (58.5)CAAH0-051%0.2
2-25Northeastern (140.7)CAAA0-043%-1.9
2-27Hofstra (67.4)CAAA0-031%-5.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA26.4526.4459.0559.594.795.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA3.054.6376.1973.881.602.21
NortheasternCAA3.014.6050.0050.030.000.00
James MadisonCAA5.094.6073.9172.842.432.10
DelawareCAA3.014.5726.0925.82-1.44-2.21
ElonCAA2.954.5747.8348.22-0.13-0.16
HofstraCAA3.054.5769.5769.161.191.75
TowsonCAA5.044.5768.1862.001.831.10
DrexelCAA5.084.579.5213.83-4.11-3.30
William & MaryCAA4.984.5665.0064.481.491.32
CampbellBSth2.371.9633.3333.36-0.79-0.65
East CarolinaAmer2.361.9443.4840.81-0.31-0.36
The CitadelSC2.271.8831.8230.58-0.83-0.73
Western CarolinaSC2.271.8833.3335.82-0.76-0.53
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.271.8555.0055.900.230.22
Miami FLACC2.221.8581.8276.811.410.99
DavidsonA102.221.8260.0056.620.440.24
South Carolina St.MEAC2.221.8154.5556.140.200.22
LSUSEC2.171.7965.2261.050.660.39
NavyPat2.171.7966.6766.690.720.60
UNC AshevilleBSth0.340.3062.5063.450.080.08
High PointBSth0.400.2757.1459.870.060.05
RadfordBSth0.290.2752.1754.100.010.02
La SalleA100.330.2519.0520.30-0.20-0.15
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.2226.0928.41-0.11-0.09
CharlotteCUSA0.290.2237.5042.32-0.07-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1960.8760.240.030.04
VMISC0.240.1919.0519.67-0.15-0.12
South CarolinaSEC0.230.1986.9680.420.170.11
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1931.8232.68-0.07-0.06
George MasonA100.230.1833.3333.63-0.08-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.230.1850.0048.950.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.200.1723.8125.49-0.10-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.200.1743.4845.21-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.150.1645.8348.12-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.200.1666.6767.110.070.05
FurmanSC0.190.1656.0054.430.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1526.0927.89-0.06-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1427.2727.80-0.05-0.06
WinthropBSth0.100.1466.6763.780.030.04
LongwoodBSth0.200.1421.7424.60-0.11-0.07
LibertyBSth0.200.1434.7836.53-0.06-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1319.0525.90-0.12-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1383.3383.710.130.09
SamfordSC0.140.1340.0041.68-0.03-0.02
VirginiaACC0.150.1383.3378.460.100.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.139.0912.26-0.11-0.09
IonaMAAC0.140.1360.8760.670.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.140.1372.7370.410.070.05
RichmondA100.140.1256.5255.820.020.01
BradleyMVC0.140.1212.0011.95-0.10-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1252.1753.720.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1233.3336.31-0.05-0.03
FIUCUSA0.130.1239.1342.98-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.1266.6763.300.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.180.1233.3335.18-0.06-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1242.3146.12-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.1282.6183.010.060.08
USC UpstateASun0.180.1221.7422.42-0.10-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.050.1220.0019.73-0.03-0.07
TempleAmer0.140.1265.2262.370.040.03
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1256.0056.510.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.170.1250.0051.110.000.00
FloridaSEC0.140.1266.6766.320.050.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.1038.1037.67-0.01-0.02
DaytonA100.150.1086.9682.160.110.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1050.0049.320.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.150.1059.0961.280.030.02
HowardMEAC0.100.1036.3638.97-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1028.5733.30-0.04-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.1031.8236.11-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.150.1060.8756.270.030.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.1083.3381.280.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.140.0941.6739.90-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.140.0938.8937.69-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.150.0972.7367.600.070.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.0914.2920.64-0.10-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.090.0934.7833.02-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0929.1726.69-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.090.0975.0071.840.050.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0968.0064.090.030.03
UMBCAE0.130.0923.0825.87-0.07-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0925.0026.38-0.05-0.04
MississippiSEC0.140.0962.5058.940.030.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0972.0071.570.020.04
UCFAmer0.140.0950.0044.650.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.090.0929.1731.19-0.04-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0941.6742.39-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0747.6249.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0756.0052.870.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0758.3363.180.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0728.5732.75-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0733.3334.95-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.100.0639.1335.45-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0654.5555.550.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0675.0071.960.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0629.1733.75-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0680.0081.160.060.04
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0652.1753.440.000.00
Penn St.B100.090.0650.0046.770.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.090.0630.4328.20-0.04-0.03
VCUA100.050.0670.8371.050.020.03
ButlerBE0.090.0670.8369.000.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0683.3378.380.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0625.0028.15-0.02-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0656.5257.060.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0666.6765.240.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0621.7424.25-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0670.8366.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0645.8342.30-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0665.3864.970.010.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0676.1972.370.020.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.850.030.05
CaliforniaP120.100.0666.6764.780.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.0622.7327.39-0.05-0.03
ArmyPat0.040.0654.1754.290.000.01
BucknellPat0.040.0652.1754.940.000.01
ColgatePat0.090.0643.4844.90-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0645.4543.87-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0635.0038.57-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0641.6739.59-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.040.0620.8321.68-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.040.0639.1342.83-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.040.0628.0030.49-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0680.0081.560.030.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0670.8367.930.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
VermontAE0.040.0652.0054.860.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0652.0048.920.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.090.0679.1778.100.050.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0643.4843.77-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0660.8755.980.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0650.0052.940.000.00
HoustonAmer0.090.0670.8367.980.040.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0675.0072.610.020.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0658.3359.310.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0686.9682.920.030.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0675.0075.340.020.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0636.0034.84-0.01-0.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0666.6764.700.030.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0485.0083.440.040.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0457.1455.360.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.130.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0352.3850.690.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0342.8641.34-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.23-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.560.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0358.3357.250.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.400.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.1752.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.040.0370.8368.660.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0360.0062.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0379.1775.990.000.02
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.760.000.00
OregonP120.040.0379.1777.200.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.44-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.520.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0386.3684.220.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0370.8370.130.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.160.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.13-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.890.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0322.2231.22-0.03-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0362.5064.120.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.620.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.090.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01