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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:298.0
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:196
Current SOS:196
Current Record:9-24
Expected Record:9-24
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:188



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-24298.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Furman (293.0)SCA40-75W100%0.0
11-17Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH67-80L0%0.0
11-20Connecticut (77.0)AmerN65-57L0%0.0
11-21Texas A&M (67.0)SECN50-59L0%0.0
11-23George Mason (221.0)A10N60-61W100%0.0
11-29West Virginia (24.0)B12A86-57L0%0.0
12-2The Citadel (327.0)SCH59-55W100%0.0
12-11South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH50-47W100%0.0
12-14Campbell (323.0)BSthH58-47W100%0.0
12-16Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA90-85L0%0.0
12-20Davidson (35.0)A10H68-80L0%0.0
12-22LSU (57.0)SECA71-47L0%0.0
12-30Miami FL (65.0)ACCA67-40L0%0.0
1-3William & Mary (93.0)CAAA75-45L0%0.0
1-5James Madison (148.0)CAAH50-61L0%0.0
1-8Hofstra (174.0)CAAH66-71L0%0.0
1-10Delaware (253.0)CAAH58-64L0%0.0
1-14Elon (259.0)CAAA50-66W100%0.0
1-17Northeastern (86.0)CAAA69-67L0%0.0
1-21UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH56-58L0%0.0
1-24Drexel (243.0)CAAA53-51L0%0.0
1-29Towson (281.0)CAAA74-70L0%0.0
1-31Delaware (253.0)CAAA71-68L0%0.0
2-5William & Mary (93.0)CAAH80-72W100%0.0
2-7Drexel (243.0)CAAH45-59L0%0.0
2-11UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAA58-45L0%0.0
2-15Towson (281.0)CAAH50-53L0%0.0
2-18Elon (259.0)CAAH77-63W100%0.0
2-22James Madison (148.0)CAAA68-61L0%0.0
2-25Hofstra (174.0)CAAA73-40L0%0.0
2-28Northeastern (86.0)CAAH56-65L0%0.0
3-6Drexel (243.0)CAAN48-56W100%0.0
3-7UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAN79-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA26.4626.4625.4925.49-12.97-12.97
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.475.4751.8551.850.200.20
DrexelCAA5.395.3934.6234.62-1.66-1.66
NortheasternCAA4.104.1065.6265.621.281.28
William & MaryCAA4.054.0560.7160.710.870.87
ElonCAA4.044.0444.8344.83-0.42-0.42
HofstraCAA4.024.0258.0658.060.650.65
James MadisonCAA3.993.9956.6756.670.530.53
TowsonCAA3.963.9631.0331.03-1.50-1.50
DelawareCAA3.963.9628.5728.57-1.70-1.70
CampbellBSth1.741.7425.0025.00-0.87-0.87
DavidsonA101.691.6975.8675.860.870.87
Gardner WebbBSth1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
Miami FLACC1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
CharlotteCUSA1.641.6441.9441.94-0.26-0.26
FurmanSC1.621.6230.0030.00-0.65-0.65
LSUSEC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
George MasonA101.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
The CitadelSC1.591.5930.7730.77-0.61-0.61
West VirginiaB121.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
Texas A&MSEC1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
ConnecticutAmer1.541.5457.5857.580.230.23
South Carolina St.MEAC1.521.5230.0030.00-0.61-0.61
La SalleA100.250.2551.5251.520.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.250.2577.4277.420.140.14
RichmondA100.240.2459.3859.380.050.05
VMISC0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.2326.6726.67-0.11-0.11
LibertyBSth0.230.2314.2914.29-0.16-0.16
High PointBSth0.230.2367.8667.860.080.08
WoffordSC0.200.2081.2581.250.130.13
FloridaSEC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.180.1868.9768.970.070.07
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
SamfordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.130.1374.2974.290.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
NavyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MissouriSEC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.120.1290.6290.620.100.10
MassachusettsA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
DukeACC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
WinthropBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
FordhamA100.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.040.0474.0774.070.020.02
MemphisAmer0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01