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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:242.0
Current RPI:242
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:203
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:209



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18242.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Louisville (19.0)AmerA70-48L0%0.0
11-12Charlotte (151.0)CUSAH83-82W100%0.0
11-15UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH58-67L0%0.0
11-18Miami FL (110.0)ACCH54-70L0%0.0
11-23Furman (339.0)SCH89-55W100%0.0
11-28San Diego St. (15.0)MWCN72-52L0%0.0
11-29Arizona St. (44.0)P12N80-58L0%0.0
12-1Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWN61-48W100%0.0
12-15Marist (250.0)MAACH62-69L0%0.0
12-18Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA44-51W100%0.0
12-21Kent St. (213.0)MACH54-58L0%0.0
12-29The Citadel (345.0)SCA48-72W100%0.0
1-1Davidson (126.0)SCA64-76W100%0.0
1-4Howard (323.0)MEACH60-50W100%0.0
1-7James Madison (233.0)CAAH75-61W100%0.0
1-11Hofstra (277.0)CAAA75-71L0%0.0
1-13Northeastern (222.0)CAAA49-58W100%0.0
1-19Towson (95.0)CAAH57-72L0%0.0
1-22UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH75-70W100%0.0
1-25James Madison (233.0)CAAA58-56L0%0.0
1-27William & Mary (119.0)CAAA74-63L0%0.0
2-1Hofstra (277.0)CAAH67-49W100%0.0
2-5Delaware (65.0)CAAA67-64L0%0.0
2-8Towson (95.0)CAAA68-61L0%0.0
2-13Drexel (132.0)CAAH47-46W100%0.0
2-15Northeastern (222.0)CAAH44-60L0%0.0
2-19William & Mary (119.0)CAAH87-54W100%0.0
2-22UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA57-55L0%0.0
2-26Drexel (132.0)CAAA56-45L0%0.0
3-1Delaware (65.0)CAAH86-89L0%0.0
3-8William & Mary (119.0)CAAN70-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA26.3226.3239.3139.31-5.63-5.63
William & MaryCAA5.715.7160.7160.711.221.22
DelawareCAA4.184.1871.8871.881.831.83
TowsonCAA4.154.1565.5265.521.291.29
HofstraCAA4.134.1329.0329.03-1.73-1.73
NortheasternCAA4.124.1233.3333.33-1.37-1.37
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.094.0921.4321.43-2.34-2.34
DrexelCAA4.074.0753.5753.570.290.29
James MadisonCAA4.054.0534.4834.48-1.26-1.26
DavidsonSC1.811.8163.3363.330.480.48
Old DominionCUSA1.801.8050.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC1.781.7814.2914.29-1.27-1.27
CharlotteCUSA1.741.7456.6756.670.230.23
FurmanSC1.721.7226.9226.92-0.79-0.79
HowardMEAC1.721.7220.0020.00-1.03-1.03
UNC AshevilleBSth1.691.6946.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Miami FLACC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleAmer1.661.6684.8584.851.161.16
Arizona St.P121.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
Cal St. FullertonBW1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Kent St.MAC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
MaristMAAC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
San Diego St.MWC1.611.6186.6786.671.181.18
RichmondA100.300.3057.5857.580.050.05
WoffordSC0.270.2758.6258.620.050.05
LibertyBSth0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
Georgia SouthernSC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
ElonSC0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
RutgersAmer0.200.2034.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1693.1093.100.140.14
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
TulaneCUSA0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
Appalachian St.SC0.140.1419.2319.23-0.08-0.08
WinthropBSth0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
VMIBSth0.130.1355.5655.560.010.01
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1321.2121.21-0.07-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
UNLVMWC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
UABCUSA0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Oregon St.P120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1078.5778.570.060.06
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UC DavisBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
NavyPat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01