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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:77.4
Current RPI:57
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:87
Current Record:14-5
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-537.70.29%
24-644.52.65%
23-752.99.75%
22-862.522.41%
21-974.526.86%
20-1088.121.61%
19-11103.111.55%
18-12118.53.93%
17-13134.50.79%
16-14151.80.14%
15-15166.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11The Citadel (292.4)SCH81-68W100%0.0
11-14Coastal Carolina (181.9)SBA64-71W100%0.0
11-17Boise St. (77.1)MWCH60-47W100%0.0
11-18UCF (72.5)AmerH40-60L0%0.0
11-20Wake Forest (42.8)ACCH61-78L0%0.0
11-23Villanova (3.3)BEA63-47L0%0.0
11-27USC Upstate (213.8)ASunH72-60W100%0.0
12-1Navy (220.9)PatH70-64W100%0.0
12-4Davidson (109.3)A10H76-61W100%0.0
12-15East Carolina (236.6)AmerA35-53W100%0.0
12-19LSU (151.7)SECA75-65L0%0.0
12-22Western Carolina (273.3)SCA59-77W100%0.0
12-31Elon (161.7)CAAA54-66W100%0.0
1-2Delaware (268.2)CAAA56-65W100%0.0
1-5Towson (127.0)CAAH62-57W100%0.0
1-7Hofstra (200.9)CAAH77-71W100%0.0
1-12James Madison (252.3)CAAA51-53W100%0.0
1-14William & Mary (146.1)CAAH77-67W100%0.0
1-19UNC Wilmington (28.4)CAAH59-65L0%0.0
1-21James Madison (252.3)CAAH0-084%11.1
1-26Towson (127.0)CAAA0-048%-0.5
1-28Drexel (248.9)CAAA0-070%5.8
2-2UNC Wilmington (28.4)CAAA0-021%-8.8
2-4Elon (161.7)CAAH0-071%6.1
2-9Northeastern (91.6)CAAH0-063%3.8
2-11William & Mary (146.1)CAAA0-057%1.9
2-16Hofstra (200.9)CAAA0-058%2.3
2-18Northeastern (91.6)CAAA0-042%-2.4
2-23Delaware (268.2)CAAH0-090%14.6
2-25Drexel (248.9)CAAH0-086%12.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA26.4226.3770.9769.3911.0810.23
UNC WilmingtonCAA3.074.2888.2485.792.353.06
HofstraCAA3.084.2544.4445.11-0.34-0.42
James MadisonCAA2.934.2527.7831.11-1.30-1.61
NortheasternCAA0.374.2563.1660.390.100.88
TowsonCAA2.994.2555.5656.660.330.57
DelawareCAA2.844.2535.2932.84-0.84-1.46
ElonCAA3.004.2552.9454.050.180.34
DrexelCAA0.294.1933.3334.57-0.10-1.29
William & MaryCAA2.924.1850.0049.710.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer2.781.7850.0042.880.00-0.25
The CitadelSC2.791.7635.2930.06-0.82-0.70
Wake ForestACC2.861.7558.8254.050.500.14
UCFAmer2.771.7576.4765.881.470.55
Western CarolinaSC2.701.7325.0022.58-1.35-0.95
VillanovaBE2.781.7294.4488.912.471.34
USC UpstateASun2.701.7056.2553.280.340.11
Coastal CarolinaSB2.701.6946.6745.28-0.18-0.16
LSUSEC2.701.6950.0036.670.00-0.45
Boise St.MWC2.631.6766.6765.460.880.52
DavidsonA102.631.6756.2555.470.330.18
NavyPat2.631.6747.0648.27-0.15-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.440.2343.7543.70-0.05-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.290.2235.2928.97-0.08-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.300.2061.1162.280.070.05
PresbyterianBSth0.390.1812.5013.05-0.29-0.13
DukeACC0.160.1877.7873.860.090.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.220.1770.5973.700.090.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.300.1770.5964.080.120.05
WoffordSC0.230.1731.2540.50-0.09-0.03
MercerSC0.150.1733.3343.06-0.05-0.02
La SalleA100.220.1768.7564.060.080.05
Appalachian St.SB0.310.1728.5731.47-0.13-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.290.1731.2536.88-0.11-0.04
UMBCAE0.280.1762.5058.830.070.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.1750.0053.030.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.140.1755.5654.430.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.1635.2941.77-0.02-0.03
StetsonASun0.220.1529.4130.28-0.09-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.310.1561.1169.300.070.06
ChattanoogaSC0.230.1575.0074.870.120.07
FurmanSC0.150.1552.9458.360.010.02
RadfordBSth0.220.1441.1844.82-0.04-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.150.1452.6348.210.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.140.1429.4123.71-0.06-0.07
ClemsonACC0.220.1461.1159.230.050.03
St. BonaventureA100.140.1466.6762.870.050.04
PennIvy0.220.1442.8647.98-0.03-0.01
RichmondA100.220.1461.1157.870.050.02
George MasonA100.140.1464.7156.510.040.02
HoustonAmer0.220.1468.4268.060.080.05
TempleAmer0.210.1450.0053.120.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.1264.7167.120.030.04
CampbellBSth0.220.1243.7542.60-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.220.1221.0527.27-0.13-0.05
SamfordSC0.150.1264.7160.050.040.02
VMISC0.150.1213.3315.24-0.11-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.240.1264.7157.700.070.02
AuburnSEC0.240.1266.6755.390.080.01
NevadaMWC0.070.1284.2178.680.050.07
HartfordAE0.150.1130.0028.54-0.06-0.05
High PointBSth0.150.1137.5042.27-0.04-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.230.1170.5958.250.100.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.1147.0646.29-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.140.1136.8433.55-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.140.1160.0063.140.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.140.1147.0646.22-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.310.1160.0072.810.060.05
SMUAmer0.150.1180.0077.810.090.06
Seton HallBE0.140.1166.6758.230.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1147.3734.50-0.01-0.03
VermontAE0.070.1175.0077.360.030.06
TulsaAmer0.000.1158.8251.180.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.090.0984.2179.280.060.05
HamptonMEAC0.160.0926.6740.16-0.07-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.150.0952.9450.590.010.00
North FloridaASun0.150.0923.5331.23-0.08-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.160.0944.4443.57-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0941.1837.57-0.01-0.02
BucknellPat0.150.0970.0071.890.060.04
George WashingtonA100.150.0952.6348.070.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.150.0937.5034.55-0.04-0.03
VCUA100.150.0973.6870.630.070.04
AmericanPat0.070.0827.7830.73-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.140.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.0822.2225.60-0.08-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0862.5062.710.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0888.8987.510.050.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0850.0066.300.000.03
MarquetteBE0.150.0866.6761.530.050.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0888.8986.560.050.06
MemphisAmer0.000.0873.6867.200.000.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0822.2220.60-0.04-0.05
XavierBE0.140.0872.2267.680.060.03
VirginiaACC0.140.0882.3576.300.090.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0656.2551.810.010.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0647.0651.38-0.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0625.0031.85-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0664.7169.850.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0627.7832.97-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0644.4450.48-0.000.00
NJITASun0.080.0638.8942.49-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0658.8254.690.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0657.8958.030.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0646.6738.45-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0643.7543.98-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0652.9450.600.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0664.7157.710.000.01
Arizona St.P120.150.0647.3744.51-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0677.7862.530.040.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0664.7165.930.020.02
ArmyPat0.000.0638.8942.65-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0622.2227.15-0.04-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0618.7527.05-0.05-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0617.6529.60-0.05-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0631.5832.58-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0611.7621.45-0.06-0.03
FordhamA100.080.0638.8935.26-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0653.3355.990.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0650.0051.660.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0652.9451.110.000.00
LehighPat0.070.0652.9463.420.000.02
Little RockSB0.080.0656.2551.110.010.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0631.5829.24-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0683.3383.150.050.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0074.450.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0626.3227.72-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0625.0029.15-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0660.0053.460.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0655.5656.000.010.01
Ohio St.B100.150.0663.1658.020.040.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0642.1141.75-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0657.8952.960.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0655.5642.900.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0655.5656.750.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0653.3345.980.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0652.9452.870.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0668.7570.270.030.02
YaleIvy0.070.0660.0065.720.010.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0663.1660.390.020.01
Miami FLACC0.150.0670.5960.550.060.01
MissouriSEC0.150.0629.4125.93-0.06-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.150.0684.2180.600.100.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7870.290.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0620.0024.53-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0641.1846.85-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0620.0026.44-0.04-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0658.3361.560.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0647.0648.10-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0663.1660.780.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0625.0023.83-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0620.0020.95-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0635.0036.31-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0688.8973.830.050.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0663.1657.700.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0633.3340.46-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0637.5044.55-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0668.4252.190.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0672.2274.630.000.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0658.8264.790.010.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0635.0039.76-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0640.0040.81-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0640.0045.18-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0655.0054.820.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0652.9451.020.000.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0584.2176.540.050.03
ButlerBE0.070.0584.2178.340.050.03
CreightonBE0.070.0594.4484.720.060.04
DePaulBE0.070.0542.1130.39-0.01-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0565.0055.280.000.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0545.0038.54-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0320.0030.55-0.05-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0352.6352.920.000.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0338.8939.92-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0337.5044.22-0.02-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0312.5022.04-0.06-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0364.7161.830.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0347.0644.32-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.080.0388.8983.420.060.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0358.8264.380.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0347.3743.68-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.070.0321.0533.56-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0370.0068.710.030.01
DaytonA100.000.0376.4776.940.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0347.3741.47-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0331.2545.45-0.03-0.00
KansasB120.080.0394.4481.800.070.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0325.0028.40-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0355.5660.070.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0364.7162.600.020.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0327.7824.32-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0343.7541.41-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0311.7618.03-0.06-0.02
TroySB0.000.0347.0648.13-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0383.3380.700.050.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0312.5024.37-0.05-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7874.930.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0389.4779.540.060.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0364.7158.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0361.1147.020.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0312.5033.82-0.05-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0361.1155.030.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0340.0038.59-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0378.9569.160.040.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0363.1651.610.000.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0340.0037.08-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0382.3574.990.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0325.0022.32-0.04-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0357.8952.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0347.0648.42-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0377.7865.330.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0318.7524.05-0.05-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0344.4442.60-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0378.9582.980.040.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0312.5019.98-0.05-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0325.0029.54-0.03-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.030.0014.44-0.07-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0378.9576.890.040.01