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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:135.0
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:87
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-549.00.02%
24-637.00.03%
23-753.30.30%
22-862.51.24%
21-973.74.29%
20-1087.37.84%
19-11102.413.27%
18-12118.517.24%
17-13135.517.86%
16-14154.016.07%
15-15173.010.88%
14-16191.16.49%
13-17211.52.89%
12-18229.51.16%
11-19247.40.33%
10-20265.00.04%
9-21284.00.03%
8-22303.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Furman (316.1)SCA40-75W100%0.0
11-17Gardner Webb (98.3)BSthH67-80L0%0.0
11-20Connecticut (16.2)AmerN65-57L0%0.0
11-21Texas A&M (54.1)SECN50-59L0%0.0
11-29West Virginia (30.9)B12A0-015%-12.3
12-2The Citadel (323.0)SCH0-093%18.2
12-11South Carolina St. (295.8)MEACH0-092%16.5
12-14Campbell (289.7)BSthH0-092%16.5
12-16Charlotte (63.4)CUSAA0-027%-7.4
12-20Davidson (135.8)A10H0-063%4.0
12-22LSU (78.9)SECA0-025%-8.0
12-30Miami FL (18.8)ACCA0-011%-15.0
1-3William & Mary (181.5)CAAA0-055%1.4
1-5James Madison (240.3)CAAH0-081%10.6
1-8Hofstra (145.0)CAAH0-067%5.2
1-10Delaware (269.3)CAAH0-085%12.6
1-14Elon (244.0)CAAA0-064%4.3
1-17Northeastern (71.6)CAAA0-031%-6.0
1-21UNC Wilmington (220.1)CAAH0-082%11.1
1-24Drexel (256.6)CAAA0-062%3.6
1-29Towson (216.7)CAAA0-061%3.4
1-31Delaware (269.3)CAAA0-067%5.4
2-5William & Mary (181.5)CAAH0-076%8.6
2-7Drexel (256.6)CAAH0-082%10.8
2-12UNC Wilmington (220.1)CAAA0-063%3.9
2-15Towson (216.7)CAAH0-081%10.6
2-18Elon (244.0)CAAH0-083%11.5
2-21James Madison (240.3)CAAA0-061%3.4
2-25Hofstra (145.0)CAAA0-043%-2.0
2-28Northeastern (71.6)CAAH0-054%1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA34.3826.3929.1757.94-14.324.19
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.3150.0041.160.00-0.76
James MadisonCAA0.004.2966.6748.510.00-0.13
ElonCAA0.004.2850.0041.360.00-0.74
DrexelCAA0.004.270.0034.75-0.00-1.30
HofstraCAA0.004.2666.6765.090.001.29
NortheasternCAA0.004.26100.0070.580.001.75
TowsonCAA0.004.2666.6747.070.00-0.25
DelawareCAA0.004.260.0034.34-0.00-1.33
William & MaryCAA0.004.2550.0046.510.00-0.30
CampbellBSth0.001.880.0030.94-0.00-0.72
Gardner WebbBSth12.501.7950.0065.020.000.54
LSUSEC2.081.7966.6756.180.690.22
CharlotteCUSA0.001.78100.0069.930.000.71
DavidsonA100.001.78100.0048.810.00-0.04
FurmanSC12.501.76100.0026.8112.50-0.82
Miami FLACC0.001.76100.0072.640.000.80
The CitadelSC0.001.730.0028.59-0.00-0.74
Texas A&MSEC12.501.7250.0063.740.000.47
West VirginiaB120.001.70100.0068.020.000.61
ConnecticutAmer12.501.67100.0074.5212.500.82
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.670.0032.78-0.00-0.57
VMISC0.000.2550.0043.730.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.240.0028.95-0.00-0.10
High PointBSth0.000.24100.0058.330.000.04
LibertyBSth0.000.2450.0041.040.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.2366.6766.600.000.08
RichmondA100.000.2350.0062.660.000.06
WoffordSC0.000.2266.6774.980.000.11
Old DominionCUSA0.000.21100.0077.160.000.11
La SalleA100.000.20100.0055.910.000.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.190.0062.16-0.000.05
East CarolinaAmer0.000.170.0034.69-0.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.1766.6760.730.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.170.0031.68-0.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.000.1633.3332.57-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1550.0052.770.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1550.0049.490.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1550.0021.230.00-0.09
RadfordBSth0.000.1533.3344.86-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.150.0046.41-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.15100.0086.380.000.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1533.3343.51-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1566.6750.370.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.140.0037.45-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1450.0056.300.000.02
NavyPat0.000.140.0032.22-0.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.14100.0055.900.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.14100.0076.260.000.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.140.0035.33-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0048.22-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.13100.0058.280.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.1350.0056.600.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.130.0054.47-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.130.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0045.03-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0034.15-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0066.050.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0052.770.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1250.0031.730.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1233.3336.04-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.12100.0041.370.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0079.370.000.07
AuburnSEC0.000.1166.6742.560.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.11100.0063.880.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.1150.0043.560.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1150.0038.240.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1150.0036.810.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB3.120.110.0015.68-3.12-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.000.11100.0044.620.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0059.140.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.0033.43-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0933.3333.43-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0950.0063.730.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0975.0045.210.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0034.26-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0925.0022.09-0.00-0.05
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6777.370.000.05
DaytonA104.170.0966.6769.311.390.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0950.0050.390.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0024.25-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.09100.0054.240.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0966.6760.220.000.02
StanfordP120.000.09100.0068.290.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0044.000.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0950.0055.220.000.01
BaylorB120.000.08100.0068.940.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0866.6755.230.000.01
TexasB120.000.08100.0084.130.000.06
ColgatePat0.000.080.0036.43-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0073.590.000.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0850.0036.850.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0041.690.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.08100.0064.920.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0866.6751.090.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0850.0059.350.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0850.0060.970.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.850.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.420.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.940.000.02
USCP120.000.0650.0026.710.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0034.57-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC2.080.0633.3344.93-0.69-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.78-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0034.73-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.44-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0625.0029.11-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.640.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0043.710.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.610.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0063.380.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.20-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0057.810.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0033.60-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0064.850.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6757.590.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.36-0.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.560.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3338.44-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0061.070.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.390.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0067.360.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.40-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3357.87-0.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0055.45-0.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0633.3334.47-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0052.690.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0066.890.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0046.320.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0059.230.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0070.600.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0047.150.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.60-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.380.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.050.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0533.3335.37-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.050.0043.82-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3363.09-0.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0566.6752.470.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.050.0043.90-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0068.970.000.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.330.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.300.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0071.730.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.03100.0043.140.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.93-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0333.3359.35-0.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.81-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0028.860.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.29-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.060.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.16-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.460.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0058.420.000.00
BryantNEC2.080.0350.0054.540.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.630.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.37-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd2.080.030.0053.20-2.080.00
YaleIvy0.000.0350.0057.440.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0036.14-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.580.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0065.86-0.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0366.6762.890.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0366.6768.330.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.27-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.250.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.680.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.00