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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:135.0
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:119
Current SOS:119
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:162



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14135.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH74-54W100%0.0
11-16Navy (216.0)PatA58-72W100%0.0
11-21Davidson (64.0)A10A82-81L0%0.0
11-24Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH61-67L0%0.0
11-27Western Carolina (166.0)SCH57-56W100%0.0
11-30LSU (94.0)SECH70-58W100%0.0
12-5The Citadel (322.0)SCA74-82W100%0.0
12-7East Carolina (217.0)AmerH77-73W100%0.0
12-19Miami FL (9.0)ACCA85-63L0%0.0
12-22Campbell (308.0)BSthA68-86W100%0.0
12-31James Madison (103.0)CAAA62-65W100%0.0
1-2William & Mary (67.0)CAAA78-70L0%0.0
1-7Hofstra (54.0)CAAH72-61W100%0.0
1-9Drexel (247.0)CAAA61-54L0%0.0
1-14William & Mary (67.0)CAAH61-63L0%0.0
1-16Elon (160.0)CAAH64-65L0%0.0
1-21Towson (150.0)CAAA37-40W100%0.0
1-23Delaware (274.0)CAAH59-58W100%0.0
1-28Northeastern (109.0)CAAH68-61W100%0.0
1-30UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA65-55L0%0.0
2-4Towson (150.0)CAAH65-47W100%0.0
2-6Drexel (247.0)CAAH60-38W100%0.0
2-11James Madison (103.0)CAAH52-56L0%0.0
2-13Elon (160.0)CAAA62-66W100%0.0
2-18Delaware (274.0)CAAA62-59L0%0.0
2-20UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH55-59L0%0.0
2-25Northeastern (109.0)CAAA58-57L0%0.0
2-27Hofstra (54.0)CAAA72-63L0%0.0
3-4Delaware (274.0)CAAN67-63W100%0.0
3-5UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAN66-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA26.5426.5453.6253.621.921.92
UNC WilmingtonCAA6.096.0974.0774.072.932.93
DelawareCAA5.935.9322.2222.22-3.29-3.29
HofstraCAA4.524.5273.3373.332.112.11
NortheasternCAA4.494.4953.3353.330.300.30
DrexelCAA4.434.4317.8617.86-2.85-2.85
William & MaryCAA4.424.4259.2659.260.820.82
James MadisonCAA4.414.4165.5265.521.371.37
ElonCAA4.384.3846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
TowsonCAA4.374.3764.2964.291.251.25
CampbellBSth1.841.8434.6234.62-0.57-0.57
East CarolinaAmer1.831.8338.7138.71-0.41-0.41
The CitadelSC1.751.7525.0025.00-0.88-0.88
Western CarolinaSC1.751.7544.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.731.7356.0056.000.210.21
Miami FLACC1.721.7277.4277.420.940.94
DavidsonA101.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
South Carolina St.MEAC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
LSUSEC1.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
NavyPat1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
UNC AshevilleBSth0.260.2664.5264.520.080.08
RadfordBSth0.260.2648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
High PointBSth0.240.2464.2964.290.070.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.170.1722.2222.22-0.09-0.09
MercerSC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
George MasonA100.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1528.5728.57-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
FurmanSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.140.1412.9012.90-0.10-0.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
VirginiaACC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
TempleAmer0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
WinthropBSth0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
RichmondA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
AmericanPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00