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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


College of Charleston

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:64.0
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:128
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:95
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-964.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11The Citadel (282.0)SCH81-68W100%0.0
11-14Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA64-71W100%0.0
11-17Boise St. (72.0)MWCH60-47W100%0.0
11-18UCF (68.0)AmerH40-60L0%0.0
11-20Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH61-78L0%0.0
11-23Villanova (1.0)BEA63-47L0%0.0
11-27USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH72-60W100%0.0
12-1Navy (208.0)PatH70-64W100%0.0
12-4Davidson (93.0)A10H76-61W100%0.0
12-15East Carolina (213.0)AmerA35-53W100%0.0
12-19LSU (193.0)SECA75-65L0%0.0
12-22Western Carolina (271.0)SCA59-77W100%0.0
12-31Elon (161.0)CAAA54-66W100%0.0
1-2Delaware (235.0)CAAA56-65W100%0.0
1-5Towson (88.0)CAAH62-57W100%0.0
1-7Hofstra (196.0)CAAH77-71W100%0.0
1-12James Madison (255.0)CAAA51-53W100%0.0
1-14William & Mary (110.0)CAAH77-67W100%0.0
1-19UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH59-65L0%0.0
1-21James Madison (255.0)CAAH73-60W100%0.0
1-26Towson (88.0)CAAA83-77L0%0.0
1-28Drexel (308.0)CAAA76-90W100%0.0
2-2UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA66-67W100%0.0
2-4Elon (161.0)CAAH71-58W100%0.0
2-9Northeastern (136.0)CAAH72-73L0%0.0
2-11William & Mary (110.0)CAAA89-79L0%0.0
2-16Hofstra (196.0)CAAA72-76W100%0.0
2-18Northeastern (136.0)CAAA71-85W100%0.0
2-23Delaware (235.0)CAAH78-65W100%0.0
2-25Drexel (308.0)CAAH80-67W100%0.0
3-4James Madison (255.0)CAAH67-62W100%0.0
3-5Towson (88.0)CAAH67-59W100%0.0
3-6UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH69-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonCAA26.5326.5370.4470.4410.8510.85
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.555.5586.2186.214.024.02
TowsonCAA5.475.4762.0762.071.321.32
James MadisonCAA5.475.4731.0331.03-2.08-2.08
DelawareCAA4.084.0837.9337.93-0.98-0.98
William & MaryCAA4.074.0751.8551.850.150.15
DrexelCAA4.034.0327.5927.59-1.80-1.80
NortheasternCAA4.034.0348.2848.28-0.14-0.14
ElonCAA4.004.0057.1457.140.570.57
HofstraCAA4.004.0048.2848.28-0.14-0.14
East CarolinaAmer1.631.6346.8846.88-0.10-0.10
The CitadelSC1.621.6231.0331.03-0.61-0.61
Western CarolinaSC1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
Wake ForestACC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
UCFAmer1.581.5864.5264.520.460.46
VillanovaBE1.561.5690.9190.911.281.28
USC UpstateASun1.541.5448.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Coastal CarolinaSB1.541.5446.6746.67-0.10-0.10
LSUSEC1.541.5430.0030.00-0.62-0.62
Boise St.MWC1.521.5264.2964.290.430.43
DavidsonA101.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
NavyPat1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
UMBCAE0.190.1957.1457.140.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
Appalachian St.SB0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
La SalleA100.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
DukeACC0.150.1577.1477.140.080.08
WoffordSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
RadfordBSth0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
SMUAmer0.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
RichmondA100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
TempleAmer0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
StetsonASun0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
CampbellBSth0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Rhode IslandA100.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
ColgatePat0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
VMISC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
High PointBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ButlerBE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
DePaulBE0.040.0428.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TroySB0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01