College of Charleston

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	129.6
Current RPI:	127
Expected SOS:	160
Current SOS:	142
Current Record:	14-10
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	6-7
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	13.77%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	27
Expected OOC SOS:	16

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-10	103.9	4.87%
19-11	115.9	25.08%
18-12	128.5	40.53%
17-13	142.4	22.43%
16-14	158.9	6.33%
15-15	176.0	0.71%
14-16	190.2	0.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Holy Cross (227.0)	Pat	H	78-69	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Morehead St. (187.2)	OVC	H	72-57	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Clemson (164.6)	ACC	A	69-72	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Central Florida (75.0)	CUSA	N	63-74	L	0%	0.0
11-25	NC Asheville (116.0)	BSth	N	66-68	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Massachusetts (75.6)	A10	N	85-61	W	100%	0.0
12-1	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	H	83-64	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Chattanooga (284.4)	SC	H	87-85	W	100%	0.0
12-14	Tennessee (138.4)	SEC	H	71-65	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Charleston Southern (152.9)	BSth	H	70-68	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Louisville (21.2)	BE	A	69-62	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Coastal Carolina (132.7)	BSth	A	70-77	W	100%	0.0
12-30	George Mason (95.3)	CAA	H	76-84	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Wofford (177.8)	SC	A	75-58	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Furman (238.9)	SC	A	43-66	W	100%	0.0
1-12	NC Greensboro (256.5)	SC	H	66-73	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Elon (212.2)	SC	H	63-44	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Davidson (62.8)	SC	A	87-69	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	A	64-58	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Furman (238.9)	SC	H	63-69	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Wofford (177.8)	SC	H	59-68	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Samford (250.7)	SC	A	52-68	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Elon (212.2)	SC	A	99-98	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Appalachian St. (257.9)	SC	A	62-74	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Western Carolina (259.5)	SC	H	0-0		86%	12.0
2-11	Davidson (62.8)	SC	H	0-0		39%	-3.1
2-15	NC Greensboro (256.5)	SC	A	0-0		75%	7.5
2-18	Kent St. (84.6)	MAC	A	0-0		26%	-7.0
2-23	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	H	0-0		83%	10.6
2-25	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	A	0-0		88%	12.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
College of Charleston	SC	26.43	26.32	57.89	59.69	4.17	5.10
The Citadel	SC	3.09	4.30	10.00	11.89	-2.47	-3.28
Wofford	SC	4.65	4.16	52.38	54.03	0.22	0.34
Davidson	SC	2.84	4.15	76.19	77.11	1.49	2.25
Furman	SC	4.79	4.15	45.00	46.98	-0.48	-0.25
Georgia Southern	SC	2.80	4.11	40.00	41.85	-0.56	-0.67
NC Greensboro	SC	2.67	4.09	31.82	31.23	-0.97	-1.54
Elon	SC	4.70	4.08	52.63	49.75	0.25	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.80	2.57	34.78	38.12	-0.24	-0.61
Chattanooga	SC	2.66	2.54	28.57	36.34	-1.14	-0.69
Samford	SC	2.66	2.51	35.00	36.55	-0.80	-0.68
Appalachian St.	SC	2.80	2.51	35.00	38.59	-0.84	-0.57
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.29	1.88	57.89	62.77	0.36	0.48
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.33	1.88	72.22	71.48	1.04	0.81
Tennessee	SEC	2.27	1.85	47.62	46.10	-0.11	-0.14
Clemson	ACC	2.28	1.82	50.00	47.08	0.00	-0.11
NC Asheville	BSth	2.24	1.82	71.43	70.32	0.96	0.74
Massachusetts	A10	2.23	1.79	77.27	71.02	1.22	0.75
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	1.73	71.43	68.88	0.02	0.65
Morehead St.	OVC	2.08	1.70	47.62	48.83	-0.10	-0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	2.08	1.67	70.00	65.31	0.83	0.51
George Mason	CAA	2.08	1.67	75.00	71.56	1.04	0.72
Holy Cross	Pat	2.08	1.67	42.86	43.59	-0.30	-0.21
Louisville	BE	2.08	1.67	78.26	73.34	1.18	0.78
High Point	BSth	0.39	0.34	31.82	32.81	-0.14	-0.12
Presbyterian	BSth	0.40	0.31	40.91	43.65	-0.07	-0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.25	0.25	45.00	44.18	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.30	0.25	34.78	38.74	-0.09	-0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.24	0.23	40.91	39.60	-0.04	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.36	0.22	57.69	58.27	0.06	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.24	0.21	44.44	41.65	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.24	0.20	72.73	71.57	0.11	0.09
Liberty	BSth	0.20	0.19	27.27	27.33	-0.09	-0.09
Radford	BSth	0.20	0.19	8.70	13.12	-0.16	-0.14
Winthrop	BSth	0.14	0.19	34.78	34.75	-0.04	-0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.19	0.18	70.83	64.53	0.08	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.19	0.18	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.18	0.18	39.13	36.12	-0.04	-0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.28	0.17	45.45	41.17	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.19	0.17	82.61	79.93	0.12	0.10
Columbia	Ivy	0.24	0.15	55.00	54.81	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.20	0.15	86.96	83.30	0.14	0.10
Jacksonville	ASun	0.23	0.15	20.83	23.61	-0.14	-0.08
Connecticut	BE	0.24	0.15	65.22	62.35	0.07	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.14	40.00	40.17	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.19	0.14	66.67	63.50	0.06	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.24	0.14	96.00	93.53	0.22	0.12
Memphis	CUSA	0.19	0.14	69.57	71.58	0.07	0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.57	65.88	0.05	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.17	0.14	4.00	5.27	-0.16	-0.12
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.12	60.87	59.85	0.03	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.12	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.19	0.12	72.00	72.22	0.08	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.14	0.12	66.67	69.71	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.10	0.12	40.91	41.68	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.12	9.52	13.17	-0.12	-0.09
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.19	0.12	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.12	73.91	75.03	0.07	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.12	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.11	20.83	20.61	-0.08	-0.07
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.11	80.00	78.08	0.03	0.06
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.09	38.10	37.80	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.09	30.43	29.57	-0.06	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.09	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.09	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.15	0.09	14.29	17.12	-0.10	-0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.09	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.09	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.14	0.09	34.78	34.46	-0.04	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.09	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.09	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.14	0.09	61.90	58.61	0.03	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	31.82	34.86	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.09	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.09	30.43	26.42	-0.05	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.08	80.95	77.45	0.05	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.08	60.00	58.30	0.03	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.08	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.08	62.50	59.52	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.06	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.05	0.06	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.06	18.18	19.91	-0.06	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.06	85.71	78.11	0.07	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.11	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.06	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.01	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.54	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.06	20.83	22.81	-0.06	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.43	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.42	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.06	43.48	42.98	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.06	73.91	74.94	0.05	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.80	0.00	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.64	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.06	30.43	29.49	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.06	60.87	53.44	0.02	0.00
Utah	P12	0.09	0.06	18.18	15.00	-0.06	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.42	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.18	67.98	0.00	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.42	66.51	0.00	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.06	30.00	34.18	-0.00	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.06	34.78	35.19	-0.03	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.06	35.00	40.74	-0.03	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.06	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.06	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.09	0.06	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.09	0.06	4.35	9.74	-0.08	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.04	0.06	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.83	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.05	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.05	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.05	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.04	0.05	32.00	35.39	-0.01	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.04	0.05	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.05	95.83	92.00	0.00	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.41	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.85	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	40.96	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.04	-0.05	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.88	0.01	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.07	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.90	-0.04	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.58	0.05	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.75	-0.02	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	69.57	70.42	0.02	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.00	0.03	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.03	26.32	28.82	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.23	0.02	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.00	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.00	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.41	0.00	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.00	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.00	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.00	0.03	30.00	31.40	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.03	5.26	7.29	-0.00	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.03	62.50	61.43	0.00	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.00	0.03	62.50	60.78	0.00	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.00	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.00	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.00	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.97	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	70.16	0.00	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.00	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.69	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.39	-0.02	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.14	0.01	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.03	43.48	45.03	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.10	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.00	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.00	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.00	0.01
Albany	AE	0.04	0.03	57.69	58.54	0.01	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.04	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.02	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.00	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.03	79.17	78.05	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.04	0.03	8.70	12.14	-0.04	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.04	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.04	0.03	34.78	35.53	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.04	0.03	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.04	0.03	68.00	69.08	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.04	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.04	0.03	28.00	28.87	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.04	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.04	0.03	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.04	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.04	0.03	12.50	13.42	-0.03	-0.02