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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


College of Charleston

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:129.6
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:160
Current SOS:142
Current Record:14-10
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:6-7
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:13.77%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:27
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10103.94.87%
19-11115.925.08%
18-12128.540.53%
17-13142.422.43%
16-14158.96.33%
15-15176.00.71%
14-16190.20.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Holy Cross (227.0)PatH78-69W100%0.0
11-15Morehead St. (187.2)OVCH72-57W100%0.0
11-19Clemson (164.6)ACCA69-72W100%0.0
11-24Central Florida (75.0)CUSAN63-74L0%0.0
11-25NC Asheville (116.0)BSthN66-68W100%0.0
11-26Massachusetts (75.6)A10N85-61W100%0.0
12-1The Citadel (332.3)SCH83-64W100%0.0
12-3Chattanooga (284.4)SCH87-85W100%0.0
12-14Tennessee (138.4)SECH71-65W100%0.0
12-17Charleston Southern (152.9)BSthH70-68W100%0.0
12-20Louisville (21.2)BEA69-62L0%0.0
12-22Coastal Carolina (132.7)BSthA70-77W100%0.0
12-30George Mason (95.3)CAAH76-84L0%0.0
1-5Wofford (177.8)SCA75-58L0%0.0
1-7Furman (238.9)SCA43-66W100%0.0
1-12NC Greensboro (256.5)SCH66-73L0%0.0
1-14Elon (212.2)SCH63-44W100%0.0
1-19Davidson (62.8)SCA87-69L0%0.0
1-21Georgia Southern (218.5)SCA64-58L0%0.0
1-26Furman (238.9)SCH63-69L0%0.0
1-28Wofford (177.8)SCH59-68L0%0.0
1-30Samford (250.7)SCA52-68W100%0.0
2-2Elon (212.2)SCA99-98L0%0.0
2-4Appalachian St. (257.9)SCA62-74W100%0.0
2-9Western Carolina (259.5)SCH0-086%12.0
2-11Davidson (62.8)SCH0-039%-3.1
2-15NC Greensboro (256.5)SCA0-075%7.5
2-18Kent St. (84.6)MACA0-026%-7.0
2-23Georgia Southern (218.5)SCH0-083%10.6
2-25The Citadel (332.3)SCA0-088%12.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
College of CharlestonSC26.4326.3257.8959.694.175.10
The CitadelSC3.094.3010.0011.89-2.47-3.28
WoffordSC4.654.1652.3854.030.220.34
DavidsonSC2.844.1576.1977.111.492.25
FurmanSC4.794.1545.0046.98-0.48-0.25
Georgia SouthernSC2.804.1140.0041.85-0.56-0.67
NC GreensboroSC2.674.0931.8231.23-0.97-1.54
ElonSC4.704.0852.6349.750.25-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.802.5734.7838.12-0.24-0.61
ChattanoogaSC2.662.5428.5736.34-1.14-0.69
SamfordSC2.662.5135.0036.55-0.80-0.68
Appalachian St.SC2.802.5135.0038.59-0.84-0.57
Charleston SouthernBSth2.291.8857.8962.770.360.48
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.331.8872.2271.481.040.81
TennesseeSEC2.271.8547.6246.10-0.11-0.14
ClemsonACC2.281.8250.0047.080.00-0.11
NC AshevilleBSth2.241.8271.4370.320.960.74
MassachusettsA102.231.7977.2771.021.220.75
Kent St.MAC0.051.7371.4368.880.020.65
Morehead St.OVC2.081.7047.6248.83-0.10-0.04
Central FloridaCUSA2.081.6770.0065.310.830.51
George MasonCAA2.081.6775.0071.561.040.72
Holy CrossPat2.081.6742.8643.59-0.30-0.21
LouisvilleBE2.081.6778.2673.341.180.78
High PointBSth0.390.3431.8232.81-0.14-0.12
PresbyterianBSth0.400.3140.9143.65-0.07-0.04
Virginia Military InstBSth0.250.2545.0044.18-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.300.2534.7838.74-0.09-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.240.2340.9139.60-0.04-0.05
CampbellBSth0.360.2257.6958.270.060.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.240.2144.4441.65-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.240.2072.7371.570.110.09
LibertyBSth0.200.1927.2727.33-0.09-0.09
RadfordBSth0.200.198.7013.12-0.16-0.14
WinthropBSth0.140.1934.7834.75-0.04-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1870.8364.530.080.05
Wake ForestACC0.190.1847.8343.63-0.01-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1839.1336.12-0.04-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.280.1745.4541.17-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.190.1782.6179.930.120.10
ColumbiaIvy0.240.1555.0054.810.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.200.1586.9683.300.140.10
JacksonvilleASun0.230.1520.8323.61-0.14-0.08
ConnecticutBE0.240.1565.2262.350.070.04
RichmondA100.140.1450.0048.480.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.130.1440.0040.17-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.190.1466.6763.500.060.04
KentuckySEC0.240.1496.0093.530.220.12
MemphisCUSA0.190.1469.5771.580.070.06
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1469.5765.880.050.05
TowsonCAA0.170.144.005.27-0.16-0.12
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1260.8759.850.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1250.0051.750.000.00
MercerASun0.190.1272.0072.220.080.05
Georgia St.CAA0.140.1266.6769.710.050.05
ArmyPat0.100.1240.9141.68-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.150.129.5213.17-0.12-0.09
East Tennessee St.ASun0.190.1250.0052.040.000.00
BucknellPat0.140.1273.9175.030.070.06
OhioMAC0.040.1281.8277.180.030.06
Rhode IslandA100.140.1120.8320.61-0.08-0.07
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.1180.0078.080.030.06
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.0938.1037.80-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.150.0930.4329.57-0.06-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.0954.1747.950.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0982.6180.500.030.06
DartmouthIvy0.150.0914.2917.12-0.10-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.150.0947.3752.90-0.010.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0954.5548.540.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.140.0934.7834.46-0.04-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0940.9139.81-0.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0932.0035.39-0.03-0.03
CharlotteA100.090.0950.0049.460.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0947.6248.81-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.140.0961.9058.610.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0931.8234.86-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.090.0924.0024.86-0.05-0.04
West VirginiaBE0.050.0966.6765.980.020.03
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0930.4326.42-0.05-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0880.9577.450.050.05
Old DominionCAA0.130.0860.0058.300.030.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0881.8276.800.060.04
PittsburghBE0.090.0862.5059.520.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0652.3852.880.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0665.2263.550.020.02
DenverSB0.050.0670.8372.240.020.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0618.1819.91-0.06-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0685.7178.110.070.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0659.0957.270.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0633.3337.11-0.03-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0676.1975.980.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0665.2263.790.010.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0633.3334.54-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.100.0620.8322.81-0.06-0.03
HarvardIvy0.100.0690.4887.910.080.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0634.7838.43-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0678.2678.420.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0643.4842.98-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.090.0673.9174.940.050.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0659.0959.780.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0654.5556.800.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0626.3229.64-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0685.7182.220.040.04
ColgatePat0.050.0630.4329.49-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.090.0660.8753.440.020.00
UtahP120.090.0618.1815.00-0.06-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0655.0057.420.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0654.1754.760.000.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0643.4843.27-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0668.1867.980.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0668.4266.510.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.090.0634.7835.19-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0635.0040.74-0.03-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0675.0074.010.050.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0683.3384.760.030.04
ButlerHorz0.090.0650.0050.810.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.090.0652.0048.780.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.064.359.74-0.08-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0637.5038.36-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0679.1776.620.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0639.1342.16-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0670.8368.830.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0662.5062.420.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0656.5255.220.010.01
DuquesneA100.090.0559.0956.380.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0547.8348.56-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0547.8350.66-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.040.0547.8342.19-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0532.0035.39-0.01-0.02
LamarSlnd0.040.0561.9067.290.010.02
SyracuseBE0.000.0595.8392.000.000.05
Kansas St.B120.050.0373.9168.410.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0370.8362.750.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0326.3229.85-0.02-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0356.5256.800.010.00
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.720.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0352.3853.290.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0336.3640.96-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.04-0.05-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0356.5254.880.010.00
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.58-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.070.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0375.0075.730.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.3310.90-0.04-0.02
Longwoodind0.050.0328.5725.79-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0347.6248.01-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.580.050.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0333.3337.75-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0369.5770.420.020.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0347.6246.51-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.88-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.760.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0354.5558.390.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0326.3228.82-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.19-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0356.5253.060.010.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.710.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.230.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0321.0524.33-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0328.5734.11-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0382.6181.410.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9138.38-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0322.7324.64-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0370.8366.500.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0330.0031.40-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.035.267.29-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0362.5061.430.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0362.5060.780.000.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.8323.73-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0338.1040.84-0.00-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.000.0350.0052.950.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9142.97-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0369.5770.160.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5735.72-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0369.5765.180.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0345.4545.69-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0360.8760.960.000.01
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.45-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0334.7832.05-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.020.010.00
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.410.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.680.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0378.2672.280.030.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0333.3338.39-0.02-0.01
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.28-0.000.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.140.010.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0343.4845.03-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0334.7832.10-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0360.0059.090.000.01
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.700.020.02
TempleA100.000.0377.2775.070.000.01
XavierA100.000.0365.2263.690.000.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0357.6958.540.010.00
BrownIvy0.040.0327.2723.78-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.000.0369.5765.370.000.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0379.1778.050.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.038.7012.14-0.04-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.040.0336.3639.73-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.040.0334.7835.53-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0371.4373.450.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0368.0069.080.010.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0380.0076.670.030.01
MonmouthNEC0.040.0328.0028.87-0.02-0.01
Notre DameBE0.040.0365.2262.670.010.01
RutgersBE0.040.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.040.0365.2263.650.010.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0343.4840.24-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0345.8345.52-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.040.0312.5013.42-0.03-0.02