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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:4.0
Current RPI:4
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:98
Current Record:33-0
Expected Record:33-0
Current Conf Record:21-0
Expected Conf Record:21-0
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:14-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:28



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
33-04.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH66-49W100%0.0
11-14William & Mary (119.0)CAAH79-62W100%0.0
11-16Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH85-71W100%0.0
11-20Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA54-77W100%0.0
11-25DePaul (154.0)BEN90-72W100%0.0
11-26BYU (31.0)WCCN75-62W100%0.0
12-1Saint Louis (27.0)A10A65-70W100%0.0
12-7Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH71-58W100%0.0
12-14Tennessee (42.0)SECH70-61W100%0.0
12-17Alabama (124.0)SECA67-72W100%0.0
12-22North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH77-66W100%0.0
12-29Davidson (126.0)SCH81-70W100%0.0
1-2Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA67-82W100%0.0
1-5Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH67-53W100%0.0
1-8Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH66-47W100%0.0
1-11Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA69-72W100%0.0
1-14Bradley (265.0)MVCH72-50W100%0.0
1-18Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH68-48W100%0.0
1-22Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA55-70W100%0.0
1-25Drake (174.0)MVCA61-78W100%0.0
1-28Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH57-45W100%0.0
2-1Evansville (214.0)MVCH81-67W100%0.0
2-5Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA58-65W100%0.0
2-8Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA73-82W100%0.0
2-11Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH78-67W100%0.0
2-16Evansville (214.0)MVCA68-84W100%0.0
2-19Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA74-88W100%0.0
2-22Drake (174.0)MVCH83-54W100%0.0
2-25Bradley (265.0)MVCA49-69W100%0.0
3-1Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH68-45W100%0.0
3-7Evansville (214.0)MVCN80-58W100%0.0
3-8Missouri St. (85.0)MVCN67-42W100%0.0
3-9Indiana St. (71.0)MVCN83-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.5426.54100.00100.0026.5426.54
Indiana St.MVC5.575.5775.0075.002.792.79
Missouri St.MVC5.535.5367.8667.861.971.97
EvansvilleMVC5.485.4842.8642.86-0.78-0.78
Southern IllinoisMVC4.144.1443.3343.33-0.55-0.55
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.084.0831.0331.03-1.55-1.55
Illinois St.MVC4.084.0853.5753.570.290.29
DrakeMVC4.034.0350.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC4.014.0140.0040.00-0.80-0.80
Northern IowaMVC4.014.0153.5753.570.290.29
TulsaCUSA1.691.6965.6265.620.530.53
Saint LouisA101.661.6683.3383.331.111.11
Oral RobertsSlnd1.641.6446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Tennessee St.OVC1.591.5914.2914.29-1.14-1.14
TennesseeSEC1.571.5764.5264.520.450.45
DePaulBE1.571.5737.5037.50-0.39-0.39
Western KentuckySB1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
AlabamaSEC1.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
BYUWCC1.521.5268.7568.750.570.57
DavidsonSC1.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.521.5286.6786.671.111.11
William & MaryCAA1.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
IUPUISum0.270.2710.3410.34-0.21-0.21
BelmontOVC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
XavierBE0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
DrexelCAA0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.170.1782.3582.350.110.11
Murray St.OVC0.170.1759.2659.260.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.1714.8114.81-0.12-0.12
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Miami OHMAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
MissouriSEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
OhioMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.120.1210.7110.71-0.09-0.09
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
RutgersAmer0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
VMIBSth0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00