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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Wichita St.

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:16.0
Current RPI:16
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:29
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:26
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-716.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UMKC (256.0)WACH109-57W100%0.0
11-13College of Charleston (57.0)CAAH81-63W100%0.0
11-20California (216.0)P12N82-92W100%0.0
11-21Marquette (58.0)BEN80-66W100%0.0
11-22Notre Dame (70.0)ACCN67-66L0%0.0
11-28Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH112-66W100%0.0
12-2Baylor (68.0)B12A62-69W100%0.0
12-5South Dakota St. (37.0)SumH95-85W100%0.0
12-9Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12A66-78W100%0.0
12-16Oklahoma (49.0)B12H83-91L0%0.0
12-19Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH89-80W100%0.0
12-22Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)ASunH75-65W100%0.0
12-30Connecticut (123.0)AmerA62-72W100%0.0
1-4Houston (18.0)AmerH81-63W100%0.0
1-7South Florida (278.0)AmerH95-57W100%0.0
1-11East Carolina (274.0)AmerA60-95W100%0.0
1-13Tulsa (89.0)AmerA69-72W100%0.0
1-17SMU (113.0)AmerH78-83L0%0.0
1-20Houston (18.0)AmerA73-59L0%0.0
1-25UCF (84.0)AmerH81-62W100%0.0
1-28Tulsa (89.0)AmerH90-71W100%0.0
2-1Temple (52.0)AmerA81-79L0%0.0
2-6Memphis (106.0)AmerA65-85W100%0.0
2-10Connecticut (123.0)AmerH95-74W100%0.0
2-15Temple (52.0)AmerH93-86W100%0.0
2-18Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA72-76W100%0.0
2-21Tulane (175.0)AmerH93-86W100%0.0
2-24SMU (113.0)AmerA78-84W100%0.0
3-1UCF (84.0)AmerA71-75W100%0.0
3-4Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH61-62L0%0.0
3-9Temple (52.0)AmerN89-81W100%0.0
3-10Houston (18.0)AmerN74-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.Amer26.3226.3275.9775.9713.6713.67
HoustonAmer5.445.4480.0080.003.263.26
TempleAmer5.415.4155.1755.170.560.56
CincinnatiAmer4.044.0490.6290.623.283.28
UCFAmer3.923.9263.3363.331.051.05
SMUAmer3.903.9051.6151.610.130.13
ConnecticutAmer3.883.8846.6746.67-0.26-0.26
TulsaAmer3.833.8365.5265.521.191.19
MemphisAmer2.412.4163.6463.640.660.66
TulaneAmer2.412.4146.6746.67-0.16-0.16
South FloridaAmer2.362.3632.2632.26-0.84-0.84
East CarolinaAmer2.362.3634.4834.48-0.73-0.73
Oklahoma St.B121.741.7459.3859.380.330.33
BaylorB121.691.6956.6756.670.220.22
OklahomaB121.681.6856.6756.670.220.22
Savannah St.MEAC1.631.6344.8344.83-0.17-0.17
South Dakota St.Sum1.591.5982.7682.761.041.04
UMKCWAC1.591.5928.5728.57-0.68-0.68
Arkansas St.SB1.591.5931.0331.03-0.60-0.60
CaliforniaP121.561.5626.6726.67-0.73-0.73
College of CharlestonCAA1.561.5680.0080.000.940.94
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
MarquetteBE1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
Notre DameACC1.561.5656.2556.250.200.20
Kansas St.B120.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
West VirginiaB120.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
DrexelCAA0.220.2237.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.200.2079.4179.410.120.12
TCUB120.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
VillanovaBE0.200.2088.2488.240.150.15
Texas TechB120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
ArkansasSEC0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
TexasB120.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1515.6215.62-0.10-0.10
ArizonaP120.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
LSUSEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
USCP120.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
WisconsinB100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
ProvidenceBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.333.33-0.10-0.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1032.3532.35-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1012.5012.50-0.07-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
St. John'sBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
DePaulBE0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
StanfordP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.078.008.00-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00