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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:37.9
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:79
Current Record:16-6
Expected Record:21-7
Current Conf Record:11-1
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-630.850.70%
21-741.937.24%
20-853.910.58%
19-965.21.40%
18-1077.50.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Charleston Southern (275.1)BSthH88-63W100%0.0
11-17Tulsa (67.3)AmerA77-67L0%0.0
11-26USC (20.7)P12N72-69L0%0.0
11-27Alabama (81.9)SECN60-64L0%0.0
11-29Iowa (7.4)B10N84-61L0%0.0
12-5Saint Louis (201.5)A10A53-68W100%0.0
12-9UNLV (120.5)MWCH56-50W100%0.0
12-12Utah (30.0)P12H67-50W100%0.0
12-19Seton Hall (47.2)BEA80-76L0%0.0
12-22Nevada (134.6)MWCH98-69W100%0.0
12-31Drake (303.8)MVCH67-47W100%0.0
1-3Bradley (304.2)MVCA58-85W100%0.0
1-6Evansville (74.7)MVCH67-64W100%0.0
1-9Southern Illinois (138.9)MVCA58-83W100%0.0
1-13Missouri St. (236.3)MVCA62-78W100%0.0
1-17Indiana St. (146.0)MVCH82-62W100%0.0
1-20Northern Iowa (114.5)MVCA55-74W100%0.0
1-23Bradley (304.2)MVCH88-54W100%0.0
1-27Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCH80-54W100%0.0
1-31Evansville (74.7)MVCA65-78W100%0.0
2-3Southern Illinois (138.9)MVCH76-55W100%0.0
2-6Illinois St. (128.8)MVCA58-53L0%0.0
2-9Drake (303.8)MVCA0-093%16.3
2-13Northern Iowa (114.5)MVCH0-086%11.7
2-18Missouri St. (236.3)MVCH0-098%21.6
2-21Indiana St. (146.0)MVCA0-079%8.7
2-24Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCA0-089%13.2
2-27Illinois St. (128.8)MVCH0-094%16.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.3726.3975.0078.6513.1815.12
DrakeMVC3.054.5922.7325.17-1.66-2.28
Indiana St.MVC3.094.5954.5555.020.280.46
Southern IllinoisMVC5.184.5778.2675.372.932.32
BradleyMVC5.174.5713.6413.77-3.76-3.31
Missouri St.MVC3.084.5640.9140.43-0.56-0.87
EvansvilleMVC5.124.5481.8281.683.262.87
Illinois St.MVC2.954.5452.1750.790.130.07
Northern IowaMVC3.034.5456.5258.500.400.77
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.984.5345.4545.36-0.27-0.42
NevadaMWC2.371.9157.8956.550.370.25
TulsaAmer2.371.9163.6460.100.650.39
Saint LouisA102.411.9038.1034.63-0.57-0.59
UNLVMWC2.331.8552.3857.170.110.27
IowaB102.321.8581.8279.921.481.11
Seton HallBE2.371.8572.7368.801.080.69
USCP122.271.8277.2772.151.240.80
UtahP122.271.8172.7369.821.030.72
AlabamaSEC2.271.7957.1451.420.320.05
Charleston SouthernBSth2.271.7925.0027.63-1.14-0.80
New MexicoMWC0.310.2860.8763.000.070.07
WyomingMWC0.210.1943.4842.49-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.200.1863.6462.530.060.05
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1852.3850.420.010.00
Fresno St.MWC0.250.1861.9059.630.060.04
Air ForceMWC0.200.1845.4538.46-0.02-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.210.1872.7372.060.090.08
ButlerBE0.100.1869.5767.170.040.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.185.007.23-0.13-0.16
Oregon St.P120.250.1861.9056.420.060.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.240.1813.6415.79-0.17-0.12
ArizonaP120.200.1879.1778.350.110.10
OregonP120.250.1882.6179.220.160.10
Murray St.OVC0.230.1845.4549.70-0.02-0.00
Washington St.P120.200.1836.3631.98-0.05-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.230.1733.3333.02-0.08-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.160.1645.0046.78-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1539.1341.12-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.200.1543.4850.66-0.030.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1365.2266.170.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.150.1252.1755.940.010.01
IUPUISum0.100.1240.0039.79-0.02-0.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1259.0960.100.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1281.8283.040.060.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1245.4546.27-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.150.1250.0046.620.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.140.1263.6459.220.040.02
CreightonBE0.150.1262.5059.800.040.02
DePaulBE0.100.1234.7834.54-0.03-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1240.9140.65-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.150.1270.8367.730.060.04
TulaneAmer0.150.1233.3332.31-0.05-0.04
DaytonA100.150.1286.3682.380.110.08
George MasonA100.100.1234.7834.14-0.03-0.04
KentuckySEC0.100.1273.9171.560.050.05
MississippiSEC0.200.1265.2259.020.060.02
North DakotaBSky0.140.1247.3749.98-0.01-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.140.1275.0070.940.070.05
TCUB120.140.1245.8339.31-0.01-0.03
Arizona St.P120.100.1254.1751.640.010.00
UCLAP120.150.1256.5253.240.020.01
XavierBE0.150.1291.3084.340.120.08
WashingtonP120.150.1265.2261.090.050.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.190.1217.3920.66-0.13-0.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1060.0060.100.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1045.4547.56-0.01-0.00
WinthropBSth0.160.1065.0063.440.050.03
HawaiiBW0.100.0984.2181.700.070.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.0930.4331.18-0.06-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0926.0927.81-0.02-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0945.8342.26-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0928.5732.70-0.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0927.7829.14-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.0931.8229.13-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0979.1774.020.030.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.0936.8442.90-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.100.0966.6769.510.030.03
Iowa St.B120.100.0973.9170.050.050.04
MarquetteBE0.150.0962.5056.200.040.01
MarylandB100.100.0987.5083.700.070.06
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0950.0052.350.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0954.5554.490.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0982.6178.890.030.05
South CarolinaSEC0.150.0986.3679.140.110.05
TempleAmer0.100.0963.6459.840.030.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0965.2262.840.030.02
ColoradoP120.050.0969.5765.360.020.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0728.5729.64-0.02-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0755.0057.480.010.01
LibertyBSth0.110.0734.7836.50-0.03-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0725.0026.86-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.0669.5764.850.040.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0625.0022.75-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0635.0034.72-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0652.3847.040.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.73-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0640.9143.53-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.210.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.62-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0665.0069.270.010.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0615.0015.35-0.07-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.100.0630.0034.56-0.04-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0628.5733.37-0.04-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0640.9136.60-0.01-0.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0666.6766.540.030.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0670.8370.840.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.490.020.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0621.7423.33-0.05-0.03
DuquesneA100.100.0663.6456.440.030.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0643.4842.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.100.0678.2674.430.060.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.770.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0661.9056.690.010.01
HoustonAmer0.100.0669.5766.530.040.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.250.020.01
MichiganB100.050.0669.5766.240.020.02
Michigan St.B100.100.0683.3383.030.070.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0620.0022.32-0.06-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0627.7834.19-0.04-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0682.6178.660.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.710.00-0.00
PurdueB100.100.0679.1776.510.060.03
RutgersB100.100.0621.7420.35-0.06-0.04
SMUAmer0.050.0690.9186.160.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.870.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.0019.67-0.03-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.050.0671.4368.950.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0625.0023.34-0.02-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.580.020.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0666.6762.630.020.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0665.2259.750.030.01
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.410.030.04
UC IrvineBW0.090.0672.7371.620.040.03
UCFAmer0.050.0652.3845.690.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0666.6770.550.030.02
VCUA100.050.0673.9173.910.020.03
VillanovaBE0.100.0686.9686.360.070.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0682.6178.070.060.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0625.0025.09-0.05-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0663.6459.460.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.0679.1780.720.060.04
OaklandHorz0.090.0668.0067.980.030.02
PortlandWCC0.090.0640.0038.51-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0645.0049.42-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.090.0652.1751.940.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.030.030.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.350.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.96-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.290.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0335.0032.27-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.12-0.04-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.880.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.79-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.04-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.76-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.700.020.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0365.2266.070.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.260.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0325.0026.76-0.03-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.12-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.12-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.760.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.570.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.35-0.03-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.370.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.39-0.03-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0320.0020.45-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.34-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.750.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.080.030.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.35-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.8760.780.000.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0381.8276.750.030.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.38-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.850.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.160.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.440.020.01
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.450.010.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0358.3354.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.630.010.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0340.9143.34-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.36-0.01-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.690.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2678.050.000.02
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.170.010.00
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.67-0.03-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0356.5260.010.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.030.010.01
WisconsinB100.000.0360.8755.840.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.950.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0321.7422.99-0.03-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.680.020.01