live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:17.0
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:100
Current Record:27-4
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:18-2
Expected Conf Record:18-2
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-417.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14New Mexico St. (103.0)WACH71-54W100%0.0
11-18Memphis (83.0)AmerN56-71W100%0.0
11-29Tulsa (45.0)AmerH75-55W100%0.0
12-3Utah (20.0)P12A69-68L0%0.0
12-6Saint Louis (272.0)A10H81-52W100%0.0
12-9Seton Hall (97.0)BEH77-68W100%0.0
12-13Detroit (205.0)HorzA68-77W100%0.0
12-16Alabama (85.0)SECH53-52W100%0.0
12-22Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCN80-53W100%0.0
12-23Hawaii (152.0)BWA79-80W100%0.0
12-25George Washington (84.0)A10N54-60L0%0.0
12-31Drake (269.0)MVCA58-66W100%0.0
1-4Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH70-62W100%0.0
1-7Bradley (288.0)MVCH63-43W100%0.0
1-11Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA53-67W100%0.0
1-14Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH67-55W100%0.0
1-17Evansville (118.0)MVCA41-61W100%0.0
1-21Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA53-76W100%0.0
1-25Drake (269.0)MVCH74-40W100%0.0
1-28Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH58-47W100%0.0
1-31Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA70-54L0%0.0
2-4Bradley (288.0)MVCA59-62W100%0.0
2-7Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH78-35W100%0.0
2-11Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH74-57W100%0.0
2-14Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA62-68W100%0.0
2-17Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA62-84W100%0.0
2-22Evansville (118.0)MVCH62-43W100%0.0
2-25Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA53-63W100%0.0
2-28Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH74-60W100%0.0
3-6Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCN56-45W100%0.0
3-7Illinois St. (62.0)MVCN62-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.4826.4888.8188.8120.5520.55
Illinois St.MVC5.865.8665.5265.521.821.82
Southern IllinoisMVC5.815.8137.9337.93-1.40-1.40
Northern IowaMVC4.354.3593.5593.553.793.79
BradleyMVC4.324.3226.6726.67-2.02-2.02
Indiana St.MVC4.274.2750.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.264.2660.7160.710.910.91
Missouri St.MVC4.264.2633.3333.33-1.42-1.42
EvansvilleMVC4.244.2464.2964.291.211.21
DrakeMVC4.214.2128.5728.57-1.80-1.80
Saint LouisA101.821.8233.3333.33-0.61-0.61
MemphisAmer1.771.7758.0658.060.290.29
TulsaAmer1.721.7273.3373.330.800.80
Seton HallBE1.711.7153.3353.330.110.11
George WashingtonA101.661.6662.5062.500.420.42
AlabamaSEC1.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
DetroitHorz1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
HawaiiBW1.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
Loyola MarymountWCC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
New Mexico St.WAC1.611.6170.0070.000.650.65
UtahP121.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Murray St.OVC0.260.2683.3383.330.170.17
DePaulBE0.230.2337.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.230.2325.0025.00-0.12-0.12
VCUA100.230.2374.2974.290.110.11
Oral RobertsSum0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
IUPUISum0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.160.1673.3373.330.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
DuquesneA100.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
George MasonA100.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
HoustonAmer0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Rhode IslandA100.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01