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Through games of Jan 25, 2015.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:13.5
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:86
Current SOS:78
Current Record:17-2
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:8-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-29.716.79%
26-311.836.02%
25-414.430.32%
24-517.913.08%
23-622.83.26%
22-729.60.48%
21-835.30.03%
20-945.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14New Mexico St. (128.1)WACH71-54W100%0.0
11-18Memphis (69.8)AmerN56-71W100%0.0
11-29Tulsa (43.7)AmerH75-55W100%0.0
12-3Utah (8.7)P12A69-68L0%0.0
12-6Saint Louis (235.4)A10H81-52W100%0.0
12-9Seton Hall (51.8)BEH77-68W100%0.0
12-13Detroit (175.8)HorzA68-77W100%0.0
12-16Alabama (65.3)SECH53-52W100%0.0
12-22Loyola Marymount (244.6)WCCN80-53W100%0.0
12-23Hawaii (189.8)BWA79-80W100%0.0
12-25George Washington (47.6)A10N54-60L0%0.0
12-31Drake (282.4)MVCA58-66W100%0.0
1-4Illinois St. (91.0)MVCH70-62W100%0.0
1-7Bradley (264.2)MVCH63-43W100%0.0
1-11Loyola Chicago (126.2)MVCA53-67W100%0.0
1-14Southern Illinois (264.1)MVCH67-55W100%0.0
1-17Evansville (82.0)MVCA41-61W100%0.0
1-21Missouri St. (217.6)MVCA53-76W100%0.0
1-25Drake (282.4)MVCH74-40W100%0.0
1-28Loyola Chicago (126.2)MVCH0-093%16.4
1-31Northern Iowa (22.1)MVCA0-054%1.0
2-4Bradley (264.2)MVCA0-093%16.3
2-7Missouri St. (217.6)MVCH0-097%21.3
2-11Indiana St. (182.6)MVCH0-097%20.3
2-14Illinois St. (91.0)MVCA0-068%5.3
2-17Southern Illinois (264.1)MVCA0-092%15.4
2-22Evansville (82.0)MVCH0-090%14.3
2-25Indiana St. (182.6)MVCA0-089%13.6
2-28Northern Iowa (22.1)MVCH0-076%7.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.4626.3990.8089.3121.5920.75
BradleyMVC3.194.4631.5833.30-1.18-1.49
Indiana St.MVC0.704.4547.3747.36-0.04-0.23
Southern IllinoisMVC3.054.4342.1139.98-0.48-0.89
Illinois St.MVC3.124.4261.1162.750.691.13
Missouri St.MVC3.114.4235.2937.29-0.92-1.12
Northern IowaMVC0.554.4090.0088.020.443.35
DrakeMVC5.554.4017.6519.04-3.59-2.72
EvansvilleMVC2.984.4077.7873.931.662.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC3.044.3964.7162.720.891.12
Saint LouisA102.831.9347.0638.67-0.17-0.44
MemphisAmer2.771.9066.6763.700.920.52
TulsaAmer2.771.8482.3574.871.790.92
Seton HallBE2.771.8172.2263.061.230.47
George WashingtonA102.771.7878.9570.521.610.73
AlabamaSEC2.631.7270.5962.691.080.44
DetroitHorz2.631.7244.4447.50-0.29-0.09
HawaiiBW2.631.7266.6759.360.880.32
Loyola MarymountWCC2.631.7226.3226.33-1.25-0.82
New Mexico St.WAC2.631.7252.6364.240.140.49
UtahP122.631.7282.3583.081.701.14
Oral RobertsSum0.420.2447.3749.59-0.02-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.270.2415.7918.67-0.19-0.15
Murray St.OVC0.340.2478.9580.740.200.14
DePaulBE0.410.2352.3843.060.02-0.03
VCUA100.140.2384.2180.700.100.14
Green BayHorz0.280.1878.9577.950.160.10
IUPUISum0.210.1838.1040.92-0.05-0.03
TulaneAmer0.210.1863.1653.860.060.01
South FloridaAmer0.280.1731.5832.27-0.10-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.270.1752.9457.380.020.03
George MasonA100.070.1729.4131.67-0.03-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.1538.8940.51-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.210.1533.3335.62-0.07-0.04
Arizona St.P120.280.1550.0052.260.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.200.1540.0041.97-0.04-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.210.1525.0032.98-0.11-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1435.2931.60-0.04-0.05
RichmondA100.070.1452.6355.820.000.02
Texas TechB120.150.1255.0041.150.01-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.1257.8956.200.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.210.1225.0038.10-0.11-0.03
Washington St.P120.150.1247.3738.18-0.01-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.140.1272.2264.370.060.03
PortlandWCC0.200.1252.6349.030.01-0.00
UMKCWAC0.070.1231.5838.42-0.02-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1278.9578.220.080.07
Wright St.Horz0.140.1244.4444.57-0.02-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.1235.0034.24-0.02-0.04
BYUWCC0.210.1265.0067.600.060.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1227.7828.14-0.06-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.070.1227.7828.21-0.03-0.05
ButlerBE0.140.1271.4370.490.060.05
Chicago St.WAC0.070.125.5611.55-0.06-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.210.1238.8936.59-0.05-0.03
ColoradoP120.210.1252.6351.170.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1265.0068.140.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.1261.1160.380.020.02
HoustonAmer0.210.1236.8435.27-0.06-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.1278.9577.550.040.06
UCFAmer0.210.1244.4441.15-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.140.1270.5968.890.060.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.115.2610.60-0.12-0.09
DuquesneA100.140.1129.4127.44-0.06-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0937.5032.89-0.04-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.140.0966.6767.920.050.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.0989.4783.130.110.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.0961.5465.650.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0937.5037.44-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.210.0975.0070.930.100.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.0978.9574.020.080.04
USCP120.140.0947.3739.98-0.01-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0926.3236.35-0.06-0.02
Iowa St.B120.210.0977.7868.060.120.03
UCLAP120.150.0955.0052.160.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0995.0094.590.060.08
OhioMAC0.140.0941.1838.63-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0965.0062.180.020.02
AuburnSEC0.150.0950.0040.140.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.140.0942.8638.66-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.0915.7926.56-0.10-0.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0952.6360.340.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0935.2934.92-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.0950.0043.330.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0955.5653.980.010.01
XavierBE0.140.0965.0063.120.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0973.6872.910.030.04
DaytonA100.070.0984.2179.090.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0981.2584.490.040.06
DavidsonA100.070.0876.4776.520.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0653.3353.280.000.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0665.0063.900.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0623.5327.69-0.04-0.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0643.7543.05-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0690.0087.190.060.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0663.1662.990.020.02
BrownIvy0.000.0641.1838.10-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0652.6355.500.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.065.5616.70-0.06-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0644.4437.95-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0647.3750.46-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0661.9060.540.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0671.4374.800.000.03
IPFWSum0.070.0635.2937.84-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0633.3330.04-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.130.0665.0063.000.040.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0633.3340.21-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9579.450.040.04
OregonP120.070.0668.4259.840.030.01
PacificWCC0.070.0638.8934.79-0.01-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0657.8956.240.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0645.0045.95-0.01-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0647.3741.08-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0647.0649.60-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0673.6869.350.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0658.8257.920.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0647.3749.78-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0655.5653.190.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0635.2938.26-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.0663.1668.480.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0635.2941.30-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0664.7156.870.040.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0627.7829.90-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.0673.6865.200.030.02
NebraskaB100.140.0663.1651.440.040.00
BaylorB120.140.0677.7871.550.080.02
Oklahoma St.B120.140.0666.6758.660.050.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0650.0050.370.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3331.66-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0625.0028.09-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0678.5774.830.040.03
DenverSum0.000.0645.0047.58-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0673.6868.120.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0672.2265.270.030.02
IowaB100.000.0665.0063.290.000.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0660.0047.770.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.06100.0098.450.070.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0642.1151.87-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0652.6346.660.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0644.4434.87-0.01-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0620.0027.23-0.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0616.6735.39-0.04-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0065.760.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0650.0054.930.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0652.9453.150.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0666.6760.490.020.01
TCUB120.070.0673.6861.610.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0672.2263.460.030.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0675.0066.550.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0647.0654.42-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0661.1159.760.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0690.0084.390.060.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0642.1135.41-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.070.0664.7164.090.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0625.0024.54-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0652.6352.940.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0652.6353.060.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.0622.2237.82-0.08-0.01
RutgersB100.140.0647.6237.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0644.4439.84-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0661.1156.240.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0355.0045.760.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.030.004.38-0.07-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0354.5565.340.010.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2175.980.050.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0347.0654.41-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0352.3857.310.000.00
MichiganB100.070.0357.8950.450.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0366.6767.030.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0342.1147.25-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0343.7552.35-0.010.00
OklahomaB120.070.0363.1664.400.020.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0372.2262.200.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0373.6875.850.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0322.2226.65-0.04-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0311.7619.32-0.05-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0342.1156.85-0.010.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0357.8959.400.010.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0352.6354.330.000.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0383.3376.420.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0344.4441.05-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0378.9572.070.040.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0325.0032.67-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0347.0649.55-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0352.6353.800.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0352.9455.320.000.00
High PointBSth0.070.0370.5968.460.030.01
LSUSEC0.000.0378.9569.090.000.01
MaineAE0.070.0310.0012.92-0.06-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0310.0013.95-0.06-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0347.3751.57-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.1663.590.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.05-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0347.3749.77-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0325.0026.11-0.03-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0363.1654.110.020.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0347.6250.23-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0333.3345.66-0.02-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0325.0022.90-0.04-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0366.6754.680.020.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0342.1145.74-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0340.0037.70-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0352.6358.400.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0336.8441.41-0.02-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0342.1151.50-0.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.030.007.09-0.07-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0335.0031.73-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0321.0526.15-0.04-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0370.5977.560.030.02
Penn St.B100.070.0365.0051.820.020.00
UMBCAE0.070.0315.0020.06-0.05-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0361.1162.880.020.01
VirginiaACC0.070.03100.0093.850.070.02
VMISC0.070.0331.5837.63-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0331.2527.91-0.03-0.01