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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:47.0
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:106
Current SOS:106
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:17-3
Expected Conf Record:17-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-847.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH88-63W100%0.0
11-17Tulsa (58.0)AmerA77-67L0%0.0
11-26USC (51.0)P12N72-69L0%0.0
11-27Alabama (73.0)SECN60-64L0%0.0
11-29Iowa (28.0)B10N84-61L0%0.0
12-5Saint Louis (206.0)A10A53-68W100%0.0
12-9UNLV (147.0)MWCH56-50W100%0.0
12-12Utah (8.0)P12H67-50W100%0.0
12-19Seton Hall (19.0)BEA80-76L0%0.0
12-22Nevada (118.0)MWCH98-69W100%0.0
12-31Drake (325.0)MVCH67-47W100%0.0
1-3Bradley (306.0)MVCA58-85W100%0.0
1-6Evansville (93.0)MVCH67-64W100%0.0
1-9Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA58-83W100%0.0
1-13Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA62-78W100%0.0
1-17Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH82-62W100%0.0
1-20Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA55-74W100%0.0
1-23Bradley (306.0)MVCH88-54W100%0.0
1-27Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH80-54W100%0.0
1-31Evansville (93.0)MVCA65-78W100%0.0
2-3Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH76-55W100%0.0
2-6Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA58-53L0%0.0
2-9Drake (325.0)MVCA48-74W100%0.0
2-13Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH50-53L0%0.0
2-15New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH71-41W100%0.0
2-18Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH99-68W100%0.0
2-21Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA51-84W100%0.0
2-24Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA54-76W100%0.0
2-27Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH74-58W100%0.0
3-4Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCN66-58W100%0.0
3-5Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCN52-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.4626.4674.8374.8313.1413.14
Northern IowaMVC5.825.8263.3363.331.551.55
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.765.7650.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC4.334.3377.4277.422.372.37
Indiana St.MVC4.304.3048.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Missouri St.MVC4.284.2841.3841.38-0.74-0.74
BradleyMVC4.254.2513.7913.79-3.08-3.08
Southern IllinoisMVC4.254.2573.3373.331.981.98
DrakeMVC4.254.2521.4321.43-2.43-2.43
Illinois St.MVC4.204.2055.1755.170.430.43
NevadaMWC1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
TulsaAmer1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
Saint LouisA101.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
IowaB101.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
UNLVMWC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
Seton HallBE1.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
USCP121.661.6662.5062.500.420.42
UtahP121.661.6678.1278.120.930.93
AlabamaSEC1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
Charleston SouthernBSth1.611.6123.0823.08-0.87-0.87
New Mexico St.WAC1.611.6170.0070.000.650.65
New MexicoMWC0.360.3653.1253.120.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
WyomingMWC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Washington St.P120.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Boise St.MWC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
UMKCWAC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
CreightonBE0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
ArizonaP120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Murray St.OVC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1511.1111.11-0.12-0.12
Oregon St.P120.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
George MasonA100.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
KentuckySEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1029.1729.17-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Arizona St.P120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
CaliforniaP120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
WashingtonP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0957.6957.690.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0722.8622.86-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.050.05
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
IdahoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01