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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:37.0
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:91
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:68



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-837.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACH71-57W100%0.0
11-13Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10A51-53W100%0.0
11-15Western Carolina (243.0)SCH79-63W100%0.0
11-17Howard (334.0)MEACH69-50W100%0.0
11-20DePaul (204.0)BEN75-62W100%0.0
11-21Iowa (79.0)B10N63-75W100%0.0
11-28Tulsa (127.0)CUSAH86-60W100%0.0
12-2Air Force (80.0)MWCA69-72W100%0.0
12-8Northern Colorado (257.0)BSkyH80-54W100%0.0
12-13Tennessee (59.0)SECA69-60L0%0.0
12-20Charleston Southern (189.0)BSthH65-53W100%0.0
12-22Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAH59-51W100%0.0
12-30Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCH66-41W100%0.0
1-2Drake (143.0)MVCA63-75W100%0.0
1-6Bradley (190.0)MVCA63-69W100%0.0
1-9Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCH82-76W100%0.0
1-13Evansville (106.0)MVCA71-67L0%0.0
1-16Illinois St. (117.0)MVCH74-62W100%0.0
1-19Creighton (25.0)MVCH67-64W100%0.0
1-23Missouri St. (203.0)MVCA52-62W100%0.0
1-26Bradley (190.0)MVCH73-39W100%0.0
1-29Indiana St. (74.0)MVCH55-68L0%0.0
2-2Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCA57-52L0%0.0
2-5Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCA64-62L0%0.0
2-9Missouri St. (203.0)MVCH79-50W100%0.0
2-13Drake (143.0)MVCH71-56W100%0.0
2-17Illinois St. (117.0)MVCA67-68W100%0.0
2-19Indiana St. (74.0)MVCA62-66W100%0.0
2-23Detroit (63.0)HorzH94-79W100%0.0
2-27Evansville (106.0)MVCH56-59L0%0.0
3-2Creighton (25.0)MVCA91-79L0%0.0
3-8Missouri St. (203.0)MVCN69-59W100%0.0
3-9Illinois St. (117.0)MVCN66-51W100%0.0
3-10Creighton (25.0)MVCN68-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.4926.4977.0377.0314.3214.32
CreightonMVC5.385.3880.6580.653.293.29
Missouri St.MVC5.325.3232.1432.14-1.90-1.90
Illinois St.MVC5.305.3060.0060.001.061.06
DrakeMVC3.983.9848.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Northern IowaMVC3.943.9455.1755.170.410.41
Indiana St.MVC3.933.9355.1755.170.410.41
Southern IllinoisMVC3.893.8942.8642.86-0.56-0.56
BradleyMVC3.873.8753.3353.330.260.26
EvansvilleMVC3.873.8751.7251.720.130.13
TulsaCUSA1.631.6353.3353.330.110.11
IowaB101.541.5465.6265.620.480.48
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.541.5470.3770.370.630.63
HowardMEAC1.541.5421.4321.43-0.88-0.88
Western CarolinaSC1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
DetroitHorz1.521.5262.0762.070.370.37
Northern ColoradoBSky1.521.5239.2939.29-0.33-0.33
Southern MississippiCUSA1.491.4974.1974.190.720.72
TennesseeSEC1.491.4961.2961.290.340.34
Air ForceMWC1.471.4755.5655.560.160.16
Charleston SouthernBSth1.471.4759.2659.260.270.27
DePaulBE1.471.4735.4835.48-0.43-0.43
Virginia CommonwealthA101.471.4778.7978.790.850.85
UABCUSA0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.210.2188.2488.240.160.16
WinthropBSth0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
WyomingMWC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.160.1681.2581.250.100.10
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
LouisvilleBE0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
NorthwesternB100.130.1340.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
LibertyBSth0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
New Orleansind0.120.1218.1818.18-0.08-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
RiceCUSA0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Utah St.WAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
NebraskaB100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
The CitadelSC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
PittsburghBE0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0953.8553.850.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Notre DameBE0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
St. LouisA100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
XavierA100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
DaytonA100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.087.147.14-0.07-0.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0879.3179.310.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonSC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
High PointBSth0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
ToledoMAC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
RutgersBE0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DenverWAC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
HoustonCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North TexasSB0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
IndianaB100.040.0481.8281.820.030.03
Michigan St.B100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
Texas ChristianB120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00