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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:34.3
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:203
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:26-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:79
Expected OOC SOS:212



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-221.910.96%
27-326.927.05%
26-433.030.27%
25-540.619.05%
24-649.38.59%
23-760.03.05%
22-871.80.81%
21-989.80.20%
19-11121.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Carolina St. (309.4)MEACH85-39W100%0.0
11-13Long Beach St. (200.9)BWH92-55W100%0.0
11-16Tulsa (189.4)AmerH80-53W100%0.0
11-20Maryland Eastern Shore (294.9)MEACH116-79W100%0.0
11-23LSU (101.1)SECN82-47W100%0.0
11-24Louisville (7.5)ACCN62-52L0%0.0
11-25Michigan St. (48.9)B10N77-72L0%0.0
12-3Colorado St. (97.3)MWCA67-82W100%0.0
12-6Saint Louis (286.5)A10H75-45W100%0.0
12-10Oklahoma (80.5)B12N0-077%8.9
12-17Oklahoma St. (57.9)B12H0-080%9.9
12-22South Dakota St. (236.7)SumH0-098%25.7
12-28Indiana St. (132.3)MVCA0-085%12.6
1-1Bradley (282.0)MVCH0-099%30.2
1-4Drake (308.2)MVCH0-099%30.2
1-8Northern Iowa (119.2)MVCA0-082%10.9
1-11Loyola Chicago (143.4)MVCH0-095%19.3
1-14Illinois St. (64.6)MVCA0-074%7.7
1-17Evansville (186.0)MVCA0-092%17.0
1-21Indiana St. (132.3)MVCH0-094%18.8
1-24Southern Illinois (142.1)MVCH0-096%21.6
1-29Bradley (282.0)MVCA0-098%24.0
2-1Drake (308.2)MVCA0-098%24.0
2-4Illinois St. (64.6)MVCH0-088%13.9
2-9Missouri St. (147.4)MVCH0-094%18.4
2-12Loyola Chicago (143.4)MVCA0-086%13.1
2-15Southern Illinois (142.1)MVCA0-090%15.3
2-18Northern Iowa (119.2)MVCH0-092%17.2
2-21Evansville (186.0)MVCH0-097%23.2
2-25Missouri St. (147.4)MVCA0-084%12.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC28.4026.3872.9785.9513.0518.97
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.3257.1452.460.000.21
Northern IowaMVC0.004.3133.3355.54-0.000.48
EvansvilleMVC0.354.2950.0048.080.00-0.16
DrakeMVC0.004.290.0021.65-0.00-2.43
Illinois St.MVC0.004.2860.0071.710.001.86
BradleyMVC0.004.2737.5027.48-0.00-1.92
Indiana St.MVC0.004.2642.8653.99-0.000.34
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.2671.4362.480.001.06
Missouri St.MVC0.004.2660.0062.450.001.06
LouisvilleACC5.861.8185.7174.884.190.90
South Dakota St.Sum0.001.7925.0041.55-0.00-0.30
OklahomaB120.001.7871.4348.900.00-0.04
TulsaAmer5.561.7660.0039.091.11-0.38
Oklahoma St.B120.001.7571.4355.170.000.18
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.951.730.0035.82-5.95-0.49
Colorado St.MWC5.951.7283.3362.233.970.42
Long Beach St.BW5.901.720.0039.76-5.90-0.35
Saint LouisA105.561.7228.5724.79-2.38-0.87
South Carolina St.MEAC5.561.700.0027.22-5.56-0.77
LSUSEC5.561.6783.3349.343.70-0.02
Michigan St.B105.561.6755.5657.400.620.25
Oral RobertsSum0.740.260.0022.75-0.74-0.14
TCUB120.000.23100.0060.950.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.2375.0071.330.000.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.210.0036.38-0.00-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.000.2050.0060.950.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1742.8638.35-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.1762.5046.490.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.350.1788.8956.710.270.02
BaylorB120.620.16100.0076.070.620.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1542.8645.34-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1566.6753.730.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.400.140.0032.29-0.40-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.310.1487.5081.910.230.09
Ball St.MAC0.350.1450.0050.170.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1420.0022.08-0.00-0.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.350.1457.1449.640.05-0.00
KansasB120.310.1488.8977.470.240.08
TexasB120.000.1450.0038.730.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.1487.5061.660.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1487.5069.040.000.05
Fort WayneSum0.000.1262.5070.890.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.1233.3351.57-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.1262.5058.130.000.02
XavierBE0.000.1287.5070.880.000.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1262.5074.160.000.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1242.8650.82-0.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1275.0055.480.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0020.63-0.00-0.07
DePaulBE0.000.1271.4337.680.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1257.1443.930.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1250.0046.820.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.1250.0045.660.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1150.0056.890.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1157.1459.020.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1142.8645.50-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1160.0069.260.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1137.5047.57-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.1142.8650.57-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7175.250.000.06
UC IrvineBW0.000.1144.4453.29-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1162.5042.780.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1162.5052.060.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.250.000.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1150.0066.380.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1188.8966.920.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0017.16-0.00-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.0914.2942.77-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0019.08-0.00-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0912.5031.01-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6743.53-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0985.7175.800.000.05
UMKCWAC0.000.0955.5649.660.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.400.0975.0075.180.200.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0975.0056.270.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0912.5023.82-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.460.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0971.4365.470.000.03
IowaB100.000.0944.4438.41-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.280.090.0025.17-0.28-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0957.1448.110.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0937.5037.96-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.400.0966.6758.600.130.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0971.4354.560.000.01
SyracuseACC0.460.0862.5062.080.120.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0050.980.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0877.7871.770.000.04
MichiganB100.000.0877.7865.840.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0885.7157.280.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0875.0047.990.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.400.080.0034.69-0.40-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.350.0857.1451.740.050.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0850.0042.770.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.280.0887.5082.220.210.05
PurdueB100.350.0877.7877.640.190.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.440.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.64-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.200.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.540.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.08-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.460.06100.0078.180.460.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.790.0642.8650.33-0.110.00
Miami FLACC0.460.0677.7866.740.260.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.460.0640.0041.72-0.09-0.01
Oregon St.P120.460.0625.0023.62-0.23-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.32-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.67-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0625.0040.78-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.830.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.65-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5075.730.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0637.5050.92-0.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.290.000.03
USCP120.000.06100.0076.400.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0642.8629.20-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.400.0657.1429.760.06-0.02
George WashingtonA100.400.0655.5642.150.04-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.500.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.710.0675.0069.680.350.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.56-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0625.0043.29-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0047.520.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0031.31-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.71-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0655.5643.870.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.590.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.590.0557.1471.170.080.02
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.030.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.740.0562.5066.500.190.02
VCUA100.400.0575.0072.930.200.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0577.7855.180.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0577.7876.550.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.270.000.03
DukeACC0.280.0590.0080.060.220.03
DuquesneA100.000.0540.0039.19-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0587.5074.510.000.03
La SalleA100.000.0557.1456.540.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0557.1444.830.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0076.970.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0577.7862.010.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0575.0048.980.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0070.350.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0588.8978.430.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.460.0337.5047.44-0.12-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.460.0377.7872.210.260.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0312.5028.64-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.460.0366.6761.400.150.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.400.0357.1472.530.060.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.820.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.400.0380.0054.190.240.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0387.5064.760.000.01
ColoradoP120.400.0375.0062.450.200.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.920.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0045.82-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.81-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.90-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.310.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.64-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.51-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.690.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.080.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.600.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.400.0312.5034.49-0.30-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.51-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.400.0320.0017.37-0.24-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
UCLAP120.310.03100.0086.650.310.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0355.5646.770.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.310.0357.1452.140.040.00
ArizonaP120.280.0377.7870.290.150.01
BYUWCC0.350.0362.5067.080.090.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8967.470.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.0342.8658.24-0.050.00
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0344.4443.25-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6770.400.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
SamfordSC0.350.0362.5056.520.090.00
Southern UtahBSky0.350.030.0025.31-0.35-0.01
St. John'sBE0.280.0344.4436.20-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.74-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.350.0333.3346.06-0.12-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.340.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0337.5038.08-0.07-0.01