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Through games of Feb 24, 2017.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:38.7
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:152
Current Record:25-4
Expected Record:26-4
Current Conf Record:16-1
Expected Conf Record:17-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:188



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-438.190.19%
25-544.09.81%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Carolina St. (289.4)MEACH85-39W100%0.0
11-13Long Beach St. (214.4)BWH92-55W100%0.0
11-16Tulsa (124.1)AmerH80-53W100%0.0
11-20Maryland Eastern Shore (300.3)MEACH116-79W100%0.0
11-23LSU (183.8)SECN82-47W100%0.0
11-24Louisville (5.6)ACCN62-52L0%0.0
11-25Michigan St. (43.6)B10N77-72L0%0.0
12-3Colorado St. (79.0)MWCA67-82W100%0.0
12-6Saint Louis (256.9)A10H75-45W100%0.0
12-10Oklahoma (167.2)B12N73-76W100%0.0
12-17Oklahoma St. (28.4)B12H76-93L0%0.0
12-22South Dakota St. (208.0)SumH89-67W100%0.0
12-28Indiana St. (218.4)MVCA72-80W100%0.0
1-1Bradley (231.9)MVCH100-66W100%0.0
1-4Drake (301.3)MVCH90-65W100%0.0
1-8Northern Iowa (144.4)MVCA66-80W100%0.0
1-11Loyola Chicago (153.1)MVCH87-75W100%0.0
1-14Illinois St. (31.8)MVCA76-62L0%0.0
1-17Evansville (196.5)MVCA65-82W100%0.0
1-21Indiana St. (218.4)MVCH84-58W100%0.0
1-24Southern Illinois (165.9)MVCH87-45W100%0.0
1-29Bradley (231.9)MVCA49-64W100%0.0
2-1Drake (301.3)MVCA69-77W100%0.0
2-4Illinois St. (31.8)MVCH86-45W100%0.0
2-9Missouri St. (213.6)MVCH80-62W100%0.0
2-12Loyola Chicago (153.1)MVCA64-81W100%0.0
2-15Southern Illinois (165.9)MVCA68-87W100%0.0
2-18Northern Iowa (144.4)MVCH73-44W100%0.0
2-21Evansville (196.5)MVCH109-83W100%0.0
2-25Missouri St. (213.6)MVCA0-090%13.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.4026.3784.7385.2518.3418.59
Southern IllinoisMVC4.374.3151.8551.600.160.14
Illinois St.MVC4.374.3184.6283.983.032.93
Northern IowaMVC4.374.3052.0051.250.170.11
EvansvilleMVC4.344.2846.1546.89-0.33-0.27
DrakeMVC4.344.2724.0025.25-2.26-2.12
BradleyMVC4.314.2537.0437.27-1.12-1.08
Missouri St.MVC2.714.2553.5753.570.190.30
Indiana St.MVC4.314.2538.4638.30-0.99-0.99
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.314.2561.5461.300.990.96
TulsaAmer1.881.8150.0049.850.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC1.881.8177.7877.811.041.01
South Dakota St.Sum1.851.7944.4444.86-0.21-0.18
OklahomaB121.851.7834.6234.74-0.57-0.54
Oklahoma St.B121.821.7565.3863.960.560.49
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.791.7332.0034.94-0.65-0.52
Colorado St.MWC1.791.7268.0066.420.640.57
Long Beach St.BW1.791.7240.7441.47-0.33-0.29
Saint LouisA101.781.7233.3332.04-0.59-0.62
South Carolina St.MEAC1.761.7029.1731.02-0.73-0.64
LSUSEC1.721.6734.6232.87-0.53-0.57
Michigan St.B101.721.6759.2657.530.320.25
Oral RobertsSum0.250.2521.4321.43-0.14-0.14
Iowa St.B120.220.2366.6764.760.070.07
TCUB120.220.2259.2657.620.040.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.2146.1546.91-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.210.2044.4444.54-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.120.1732.1430.88-0.04-0.07
George MasonA100.180.1762.9661.410.050.04
Kansas St.B120.160.1760.7159.900.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1742.8644.04-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.190.1681.4878.550.120.09
WyomingMWC0.130.1553.8553.520.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1452.1749.970.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1457.6958.130.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.160.1482.1480.650.100.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1437.0438.57-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.150.1462.9661.290.040.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1446.1546.97-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.090.1489.2987.850.070.11
TexasB120.160.1435.7134.82-0.05-0.04
Texas TechB120.130.1460.7159.310.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.160.1475.0071.890.080.06
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1411.5411.61-0.09-0.11
XavierBE0.130.1264.2964.300.040.03
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1257.6957.760.020.02
South DakotaSum0.130.1264.2963.760.040.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1275.0077.130.070.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.120.003.37-0.13-0.11
UC DavisBW0.090.1257.6957.160.010.02
Boise St.MWC0.130.1164.0064.920.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.120.1157.6958.500.020.02
IUPUISum0.120.1140.7441.11-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.130.1157.1456.420.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1148.0047.40-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.120.1150.0051.290.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.130.1142.3144.00-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.1148.0047.52-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.1165.3864.790.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1160.7160.450.030.02
UC IrvineBW0.120.1151.8554.460.000.01
UNLVMWC0.130.1135.7134.77-0.04-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1179.3178.670.050.06
Wright St.Horz0.120.1160.7161.120.030.03
West VirginiaB120.130.1178.5777.800.070.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1159.2662.740.020.03
MinnesotaB100.120.1175.0073.550.060.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0925.9326.04-0.05-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.0941.6743.50-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0933.3334.36-0.02-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0920.0022.20-0.06-0.05
HowardMEAC0.070.0919.2321.45-0.04-0.05
UMKCWAC0.090.0946.1546.47-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0951.8551.680.000.00
IowaB100.090.0953.5751.600.010.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0914.2918.11-0.07-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0924.1424.00-0.05-0.04
StanfordP120.090.0950.0047.360.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.100.0951.8553.670.000.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0858.6257.910.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0851.7249.530.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0834.6233.54-0.02-0.03
NevadaMWC0.060.0878.5778.290.030.05
UCFAmer0.100.0864.2963.830.030.02
AuburnSEC0.100.0860.7159.640.020.02
HoustonAmer0.100.0870.3769.140.040.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0850.0049.420.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.100.0864.2962.790.030.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0860.7159.880.020.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0818.5218.47-0.04-0.05
WoffordSC0.090.0844.4443.90-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0864.2963.110.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0859.2657.880.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0814.8115.42-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC0.090.0882.1481.770.060.05
PurdueB100.090.0882.1480.800.060.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0625.9327.42-0.02-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0620.0020.88-0.02-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0644.0045.05-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0644.8343.70-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0663.3362.800.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.5042.40-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0663.6465.040.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0670.3770.550.030.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0670.3767.230.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0629.6329.38-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0640.7440.21-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0678.5777.630.040.03
DenverSum0.030.0657.1456.680.000.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0650.0051.340.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0642.8642.33-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0685.1985.440.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.1546.92-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0651.8551.810.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0634.4834.86-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0662.0762.650.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0650.0046.840.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0648.1548.29-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0682.1482.160.040.04
Washington St.P120.060.0642.3139.94-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.0024.82-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.4346.32-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0680.0080.880.040.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0629.1731.55-0.03-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0632.1430.39-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0653.5752.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0670.3769.240.030.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.064.005.35-0.03-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.0030.82-0.03-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0650.0049.800.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0641.6741.96-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0689.2987.810.050.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0650.0049.260.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.7134.89-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0646.4343.88-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0682.1480.620.040.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0644.8345.02-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0651.8550.690.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0051.400.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.8761.760.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0613.7913.43-0.05-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0658.3359.280.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0685.7185.560.020.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.9325.24-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0625.0026.29-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0616.0016.72-0.04-0.04
USCP120.030.0675.0075.270.010.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0676.0076.570.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0574.0774.070.030.03
MarylandB100.030.0577.7876.970.020.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0562.9664.100.020.02
VCUA100.060.0582.1479.380.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.030.0557.1455.800.000.01
WisconsinB100.030.0578.5778.400.020.03
DaytonA100.060.0581.4880.730.040.03
DukeACC0.060.0578.5776.180.040.03
DuquesneA100.060.0535.7134.58-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0553.5752.880.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0553.8554.870.000.01
NebraskaB100.060.0542.3141.73-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0575.0074.380.020.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0555.1754.740.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0553.5750.740.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0562.9663.430.020.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0566.6767.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0364.2964.510.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0350.0050.070.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0383.3382.370.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0389.2989.470.030.02
AkronMAC0.030.0378.5777.240.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0325.0025.07-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0367.8666.460.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.5753.850.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0377.7878.000.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.3770.850.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.1548.30-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0361.5460.470.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0342.3143.40-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.3636.57-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0322.2224.26-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0333.3334.84-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0338.4639.14-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0327.5928.23-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.4172.930.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0337.5039.92-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0049.120.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0355.5656.820.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0344.0043.40-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.9325.76-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0327.2728.62-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0328.5728.29-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0323.0822.45-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0350.0052.060.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0348.2850.62-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0351.8552.290.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.8762.120.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0354.1753.200.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0389.2988.410.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0353.5751.910.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0333.3332.54-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0389.6688.290.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6764.650.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0351.8551.260.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0332.1433.01-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0378.5776.230.020.01
FordhamA100.030.0344.4443.95-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0355.5652.760.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0366.6765.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.000.0355.5655.030.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0346.4346.16-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0351.7250.580.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0371.4368.340.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0375.0075.170.020.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0048.670.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0366.6766.800.010.01
RichmondA100.000.0359.2660.010.000.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.31-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0355.5656.300.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0311.5412.95-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.8642.05-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.96-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0350.0050.280.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0376.9277.640.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0332.1431.92-0.01-0.01