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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:32.0
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:140
Current Record:29-4
Expected Record:29-4
Current Conf Record:20-1
Expected Conf Record:20-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-432.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH85-39W100%0.0
11-13Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH92-55W100%0.0
11-16Tulsa (134.0)AmerH80-53W100%0.0
11-20Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH116-79W100%0.0
11-23LSU (193.0)SECN82-47W100%0.0
11-24Louisville (7.0)ACCN62-52L0%0.0
11-25Michigan St. (51.0)B10N77-72L0%0.0
12-3Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA67-82W100%0.0
12-6Saint Louis (238.0)A10H75-45W100%0.0
12-10Oklahoma (168.0)B12N73-76W100%0.0
12-17Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H76-93L0%0.0
12-22South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH89-67W100%0.0
12-28Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA72-80W100%0.0
1-1Bradley (220.0)MVCH100-66W100%0.0
1-4Drake (314.0)MVCH90-65W100%0.0
1-8Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA66-80W100%0.0
1-11Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH87-75W100%0.0
1-14Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA76-62L0%0.0
1-17Evansville (188.0)MVCA65-82W100%0.0
1-21Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH84-58W100%0.0
1-24Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH87-45W100%0.0
1-29Bradley (220.0)MVCA49-64W100%0.0
2-1Drake (314.0)MVCA69-77W100%0.0
2-4Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH86-45W100%0.0
2-9Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH80-62W100%0.0
2-12Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA64-81W100%0.0
2-15Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA68-87W100%0.0
2-18Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH73-44W100%0.0
2-21Evansville (188.0)MVCH109-83W100%0.0
2-25Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA67-86W100%0.0
3-3Bradley (220.0)MVCN82-56W100%0.0
3-4Missouri St. (210.0)MVCN78-63W100%0.0
3-5Illinois St. (33.0)MVCN51-71W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.5326.5386.9386.9319.5919.59
Illinois St.MVC5.585.5886.2186.214.044.04
BradleyMVC5.495.4941.3841.38-0.95-0.95
Missouri St.MVC5.495.4955.1755.170.570.57
Southern IllinoisMVC4.134.1353.3353.330.280.28
EvansvilleMVC4.114.1148.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Northern IowaMVC4.074.0748.1548.15-0.15-0.15
DrakeMVC4.054.0522.2222.22-2.25-2.25
Indiana St.MVC4.014.0135.7135.71-1.15-1.15
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.014.0157.1457.140.570.57
TulsaAmer1.681.6848.3948.39-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
South Dakota St.Sum1.621.6251.6151.610.050.05
OklahomaB121.621.6236.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Oklahoma St.B121.591.5960.0060.000.320.32
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.561.5638.7138.71-0.35-0.35
Colorado St.MWC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
Long Beach St.BW1.561.5641.9441.94-0.25-0.25
Saint LouisA101.561.5637.5037.50-0.39-0.39
South Carolina St.MEAC1.541.5432.1432.14-0.55-0.55
LSUSEC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
Michigan St.B101.521.5256.2556.250.190.19
TCUB120.260.2654.5554.550.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.240.2421.4321.43-0.14-0.14
Iowa St.B120.220.2269.7069.700.090.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.190.1928.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Murray St.OVC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.170.1710.3410.34-0.13-0.13
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
Kansas St.B120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
HawaiiBW0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
South DakotaSum0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
TexasB120.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
Air ForceMWC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
IUPUISum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
TulaneAmer0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01