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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Wichita St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:12.0
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:56
Current Record:26-5
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:17-3
Expected Conf Record:17-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:17


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-512.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wichita St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Charleston Southern (162.0)BSthH85-57W100%0.0
11-17Colorado (62.0)P12N58-67W100%0.0
11-18Alabama (36.0)SECN60-70L0%0.0
11-20Temple (19.0)A10N74-78L0%0.0
11-25UAB (112.0)CUSAH68-46W100%0.0
12-1Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)BWH75-60W100%0.0
12-4Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)MWCH89-70W100%0.0
12-7Tulsa (120.0)CUSAA67-77W100%0.0
12-10Utah St. (143.0)WACH83-76W100%0.0
12-14Chicago St. (336.0)GWCH94-44W100%0.0
12-28Bradley (265.0)MVCA51-90W100%0.0
12-31Creighton (24.0)MVCH61-68L0%0.0
1-4Evansville (131.0)MVCA66-67W100%0.0
1-7Southern Illinois (255.0)MVCA73-83W100%0.0
1-10Illinois St. (100.0)MVCH65-62W100%0.0
1-13Bradley (265.0)MVCH78-41W100%0.0
1-15Indiana St. (129.0)MVCA65-75W100%0.0
1-18Northern Iowa (73.0)MVCA68-71W100%0.0
1-21Southern Illinois (255.0)MVCH85-42W100%0.0
1-25Evansville (131.0)MVCH86-74W100%0.0
1-28Drake (133.0)MVCA93-86L0%0.0
2-1Missouri St. (123.0)MVCA67-74W100%0.0
2-4Indiana St. (129.0)MVCH71-66W100%0.0
2-8Northern Iowa (73.0)MVCH82-57W100%0.0
2-11Creighton (24.0)MVCA68-89W100%0.0
2-15Missouri St. (123.0)MVCH73-58W100%0.0
2-18Davidson (66.0)SCA74-91W100%0.0
2-22Illinois St. (100.0)MVCA55-68W100%0.0
2-25Drake (133.0)MVCH81-58W100%0.0
3-2Indiana St. (129.0)MVCN72-48W100%0.0
3-3Illinois St. (100.0)MVCN64-65L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wichita St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wichita St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wichita St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wichita St.MVC26.4726.4782.9982.9917.4717.47
Illinois St.MVC5.855.8563.3363.331.561.56
Indiana St.MVC5.765.7660.7160.711.241.24
CreightonMVC4.424.4287.1087.103.283.28
Southern IllinoisMVC4.254.2528.5728.57-1.82-1.82
DrakeMVC4.254.2551.7251.720.150.15
EvansvilleMVC4.254.2553.5753.570.300.30
Missouri St.MVC4.234.2351.7251.720.150.15
Northern IowaMVC4.224.2262.0762.071.021.02
BradleyMVC4.214.2123.3323.33-2.24-2.24
Chicago St.GWC1.791.7911.1111.11-1.39-1.39
TulsaCUSA1.741.7456.6756.670.230.23
UABCUSA1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Cal St. FullertonBW1.611.6170.3770.370.660.66
Charleston SouthernBSth1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
ColoradoP121.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
DavidsonSC1.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
Nevada Las VegasMWC1.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
TempleA101.611.6176.6776.670.860.86
Utah St.WAC1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1832.0032.00-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
Boise St.MWC0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NevadaWAC0.180.1880.0080.000.110.11
Ball St.MAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.160.1640.7440.74-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
Fresno St.WAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
ButlerHorz0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Texas ChristianMWC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
IllinoisB100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North DakotaGWC0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Old DominionCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
TulaneCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
George WashingtonA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
CaliforniaP120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
OaklandSum0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
PacificBW0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
St. LouisA100.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MemphisCUSA0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
HawaiiWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MarylandACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ArizonaP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
OregonP120.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
WisconsinB100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
RutgersBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Seattleind0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
West VirginiaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DenverSB0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0396.4396.430.020.02
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00