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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:213.0
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:201
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:271



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16213.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Temple (175.0)AmerA77-81W100%0.0
11-13Seton Hall (128.0)BEA78-76L0%0.0
11-17Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH75-58W100%0.0
11-21Western Carolina (221.0)SCH72-59W100%0.0
11-22USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH79-78W100%0.0
11-23Niagara (302.0)MAACH102-97W100%0.0
11-27Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH83-79W100%0.0
12-1Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH68-51W100%0.0
12-4Bucknell (167.0)PatH59-66L0%0.0
12-21College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA54-58W100%0.0
12-28Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH70-78L0%0.0
12-31Princeton (122.0)IvyA73-68L0%0.0
1-8Ohio (87.0)MACH53-59L0%0.0
1-11Ball St. (309.0)MACH86-74W100%0.0
1-15Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA64-73W100%0.0
1-18Buffalo (106.0)MACA71-60L0%0.0
1-23Western Michigan (66.0)MACH59-75L0%0.0
1-26Toledo (38.0)MACA81-78L0%0.0
1-29Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH49-50L0%0.0
2-1Akron (93.0)MACH60-57W100%0.0
2-5Central Michigan (294.0)MACA78-73L0%0.0
2-8Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA70-53L0%0.0
2-12Bowling Green (194.0)MACH62-61W100%0.0
2-15Central Michigan (294.0)MACH83-75W100%0.0
2-19Miami OH (161.0)MACA63-75W100%0.0
2-22Buffalo (106.0)MACH69-78L0%0.0
2-26Bowling Green (194.0)MACA73-66L0%0.0
3-1Ohio (87.0)MACA61-75W100%0.0
3-4Miami OH (161.0)MACH61-73L0%0.0
3-7Akron (93.0)MACA58-54L0%0.0
3-10Miami OH (161.0)MACA71-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC26.2926.2946.1046.10-2.05-2.05
Miami OHMAC5.605.6040.7440.74-1.04-1.04
OhioMAC4.134.1367.7467.741.461.46
AkronMAC4.074.0764.5264.521.181.18
BuffaloMAC4.034.0361.5461.540.930.93
Bowling GreenMAC4.014.0134.4834.48-1.25-1.25
Northern IllinoisMAC3.973.9744.8344.83-0.41-0.41
Central MichiganMAC3.933.9325.9325.93-1.89-1.89
Eastern MichiganMAC2.592.5954.8454.840.250.25
Western MichiganMAC2.482.4870.0070.000.990.99
ToledoMAC2.462.4680.6580.651.501.50
Ball St.MAC2.452.4511.1111.11-1.91-1.91
Cleveland St.Horz1.821.8262.0762.070.440.44
NiagaraMAAC1.801.8021.8821.88-1.01-1.01
USC UpstateASun1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
Youngstown St.Horz1.691.6942.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Kennesaw St.ASun1.691.6914.2914.29-1.21-1.21
Western CarolinaSC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Seton HallBE1.661.6648.4848.48-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
PrincetonIvy1.641.6469.2369.230.630.63
College of CharlestonCAA1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
TempleAmer1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Wright St.Horz0.290.2956.2556.250.040.04
DetroitHorz0.260.2636.6736.67-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.240.2435.4835.48-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.230.2375.0075.000.120.12
MercerASun0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
XavierBE0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
MaristMAAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
IPFWSum0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.09-0.09
DrexelCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
North FloridaASun0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.10-0.10
ButlerBE0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
IonaMAAC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.110.113.703.70-0.10-0.10
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
UMKCWAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
LafayettePat0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
RutgersAmer0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
BrownIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01