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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:73.2
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:158
Current SOS:187
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:88
Expected OOC SOS:318



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-114.00.01%
27-214.90.14%
26-319.80.81%
25-425.52.18%
24-532.15.94%
23-641.410.97%
22-752.015.08%
21-863.817.47%
20-978.317.53%
19-1094.013.30%
18-11111.08.57%
17-12129.94.70%
16-13149.12.11%
15-14169.30.85%
14-15182.60.24%
13-16198.10.08%
12-17228.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Youngstown St. (275.2)HorzA61-69W100%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (180.9)MVCH74-51W100%0.0
11-22Illinois Chicago (270.5)HorzH78-60W100%0.0
11-23Yale (86.0)IvyH0-065%4.7
11-29Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCH0-086%12.9
12-6Kennesaw St. (321.5)ASunA0-088%14.4
12-14Arkansas Little Rock (176.7)SBA0-061%3.4
12-19North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACH0-097%22.1
12-21North Dakota St. (210.6)SumN0-077%8.8
12-30Kansas (24.4)B12A0-019%-10.4
1-2Texas Pan American (263.6)WACH0-093%17.8
1-7Bowling Green (101.8)MACH0-070%6.3
1-10Northern Illinois (211.6)MACA0-066%5.1
1-14Eastern Michigan (175.9)MACH0-082%10.8
1-17Ohio (113.5)MACH0-071%6.7
1-21Toledo (75.9)MACH0-063%3.9
1-24Ball St. (233.5)MACA0-071%6.7
1-27Central Michigan (211.7)MACH0-085%12.4
1-31Buffalo (78.0)MACA0-046%-1.3
2-4Western Michigan (127.8)MACA0-053%0.8
2-7Miami OH (237.8)MACH0-089%14.9
2-10Akron (100.7)MACA0-044%-1.9
2-14Toledo (75.9)MACA0-039%-3.2
2-18Ball St. (233.5)MACH0-088%13.9
2-21Ohio (113.5)MACA0-049%-0.5
2-24Miami OH (237.8)MACA0-074%7.7
2-28Buffalo (78.0)MACH0-069%5.8
3-3Bowling Green (101.8)MACA0-047%-0.9
3-6Akron (100.7)MACH0-067%5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC31.2526.31100.0071.8131.2511.48
AkronMAC0.004.3166.6765.140.001.30
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.27100.0063.040.001.11
BuffaloMAC0.004.2566.6761.880.001.01
Miami OHMAC0.004.2566.6735.270.00-1.25
OhioMAC0.004.2450.0057.560.000.64
ToledoMAC0.004.1933.3365.28-0.001.28
Ball St.MAC0.004.190.0037.57-0.00-1.04
Eastern MichiganMAC2.082.61100.0050.432.080.02
Central MichiganMAC2.082.61100.0047.312.08-0.14
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.58100.0046.440.00-0.18
Western MichiganMAC0.002.58100.0055.000.000.26
Youngstown St.Horz16.671.8833.3336.93-5.56-0.49
Illinois ChicagoHorz16.671.8833.3336.93-5.56-0.49
Southern IllinoisMVC16.671.8533.3351.67-5.560.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.001.8150.0045.680.00-0.16
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.810.0039.53-0.00-0.38
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.7920.0027.44-0.00-0.81
YaleIvy4.171.7866.6763.541.390.48
Arkansas Little RockSB0.001.7250.0053.540.000.12
KansasB120.001.7250.0061.120.000.38
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.720.0024.95-0.00-0.86
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.001.72100.0031.710.00-0.63
EvansvilleMVC0.000.24100.0063.550.000.07
OaklandHorz0.000.240.0032.48-0.00-0.09
Wright St.Horz0.000.2466.6758.650.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2433.3346.93-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.220.0027.82-0.00-0.10
DrakeMVC0.000.220.0025.08-0.00-0.11
Chicago St.WAC0.000.210.0025.43-0.00-0.10
UMKCWAC0.000.1933.3355.40-0.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1950.0049.760.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1950.0051.860.000.01
LongwoodBSth2.080.1833.3322.74-0.69-0.10
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1866.6752.030.000.01
DaytonA100.000.1866.6769.640.000.07
DetroitHorz0.000.1833.3354.50-0.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1866.6754.020.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1833.3340.99-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.16100.0042.120.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum2.080.1633.3332.78-0.69-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.150.0067.49-0.000.05
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1550.0052.920.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1525.0041.91-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1350.0031.810.00-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1333.3321.74-0.00-0.07
IPFWSum0.000.1350.0063.720.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3349.33-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1225.0033.97-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.12100.0072.860.000.06
UtahP120.000.1266.6769.700.000.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.120.0037.13-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0033.68-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.120.0042.47-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.12100.0072.420.000.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6752.550.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1275.0057.060.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.12100.0085.100.000.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.120.0033.14-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.12100.0051.050.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.1240.0040.58-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1066.6746.620.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0042.57-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1050.0037.430.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0925.0051.56-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.090.0031.63-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0031.92-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.09100.0081.740.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0033.25-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0044.91-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA102.080.09100.0065.142.080.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0019.17-0.00-0.06
Texas TechB120.000.0966.6746.900.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0933.3341.92-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0035.64-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0071.340.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.0950.0054.900.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.21-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.090.0036.19-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0085.630.000.06
Tennessee St.OVC2.080.090.0028.50-2.08-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0750.0061.440.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.42-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.070.0018.23-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.070.0044.01-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.570.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0666.6773.760.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0057.63-0.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.580.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6771.600.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.02-0.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3349.04-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.850.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0045.18-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6748.790.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6749.370.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0033.98-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0032.70-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.27-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.50-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0080.630.000.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0041.720.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0046.040.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3341.77-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE2.080.06100.0037.852.08-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0069.300.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0625.0037.31-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0062.620.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6767.200.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.03-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6754.240.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0675.0064.270.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3335.41-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.060.0042.80-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0045.600.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0047.13-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.120.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.590.000.00
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0047.170.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.91-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.550.000.01
USCP120.000.0650.0027.780.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.570.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0034.71-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0625.0035.71-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.650.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.130.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.07-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.70-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0071.440.000.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3353.79-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.51-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.97-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.330.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.44-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0019.92-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.850.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.060.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3336.99-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.03-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0366.6767.990.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.040.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6753.050.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.56-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0035.51-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.120.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0027.80-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.48-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.40-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.19-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3362.56-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.160.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0067.100.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.260.000.00
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0069.670.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0366.6763.960.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.290.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0037.890.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0068.880.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.87-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0046.730.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0053.210.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.93-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.840.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0033.75-0.00-0.01