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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:124.0
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:141
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:230



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13124.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH79-70W100%0.0
11-18Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA72-69L0%0.0
11-21Marist (318.0)MAACH79-72W100%0.0
11-24St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH79-60W100%0.0
11-28Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA85-76L0%0.0
12-5Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA62-66W100%0.0
12-7NJIT (207.0)ASunA75-80W100%0.0
12-10Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH73-62W100%0.0
12-12Canisius (220.0)MAACH84-77W100%0.0
12-22SMU (13.0)AmerN90-74L0%0.0
12-23Penn St. (125.0)B10N75-69L0%0.0
12-30North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA60-61W100%0.0
1-5Western Michigan (202.0)MACA84-87W100%0.0
1-8Buffalo (90.0)MACH67-76L0%0.0
1-12Miami OH (195.0)MACH76-68W100%0.0
1-16Ohio (81.0)MACH89-82W100%0.0
1-19Ball St. (179.0)MACA68-76W100%0.0
1-23Bowling Green (200.0)MACA59-62W100%0.0
1-26Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH73-58W100%0.0
1-29Ohio (81.0)MACA72-61L0%0.0
2-2Central Michigan (156.0)MACA88-61L0%0.0
2-6Toledo (182.0)MACH67-82L0%0.0
2-9Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH75-74W100%0.0
2-13Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA75-70L0%0.0
2-16Western Michigan (202.0)MACH85-78W100%0.0
2-19Akron (34.0)MACH85-76W100%0.0
2-23Buffalo (90.0)MACA87-70L0%0.0
2-27Miami OH (195.0)MACA74-65L0%0.0
3-1Bowling Green (200.0)MACH70-54W100%0.0
3-4Akron (34.0)MACA74-60L0%0.0
3-7Bowling Green (200.0)MACH69-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC26.2726.2758.6558.654.544.54
Bowling GreenMAC5.675.6744.8344.83-0.59-0.59
BuffaloMAC4.184.1854.8454.840.400.40
AkronMAC4.164.1677.4277.422.282.28
OhioMAC4.054.0565.5265.521.261.26
Miami OHMAC4.024.0236.6736.67-1.07-1.07
Eastern MichiganMAC3.973.9748.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Western MichiganMAC3.933.9339.2939.29-0.84-0.84
ToledoMAC2.512.5150.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC2.472.4760.7160.710.530.53
Central MichiganMAC2.472.4746.4346.43-0.18-0.18
Ball St.MAC2.422.4260.0060.000.480.48
Cleveland St.Horz1.871.8724.1424.14-0.97-0.97
Youngstown St.Horz1.771.7731.0331.03-0.67-0.67
CanisiusMAAC1.771.7743.7543.75-0.22-0.22
Penn St.B101.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Louisiana MonroeSB1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
MaristMAAC1.661.6624.1424.14-0.86-0.86
NJITASun1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
St. Francis PANEC1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
PittsburghACC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
SMUAmer1.611.6182.7682.761.061.06
Southern IllinoisMVC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
DetroitHorz0.320.3248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.260.2660.6160.610.060.06
OaklandHorz0.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
Green BayHorz0.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
IonaMAAC0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
VermontAE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.130.1339.3939.39-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
St. BonaventureA100.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
North FloridaASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.070.07
TulsaAmer0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
IPFWSum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1011.1111.11-0.08-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
BryantNEC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01