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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:94.0
Current RPI:94
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:147
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:150
Expected OOC SOS:265



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1194.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzA61-69W100%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH74-51W100%0.0
11-22Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH78-60W100%0.0
11-23Yale (64.0)IvyH59-66L0%0.0
11-29Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH61-69L0%0.0
12-6Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA46-58W100%0.0
12-14Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA55-60W100%0.0
12-19North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH71-57W100%0.0
12-21North Dakota St. (92.0)SumN52-53W100%0.0
12-22UTEP (78.0)CUSAA78-75L0%0.0
12-30Kansas (2.0)B12A78-62L0%0.0
1-2Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH74-54W100%0.0
1-7Bowling Green (109.0)MACH64-66L0%0.0
1-10Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA65-67W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH65-59W100%0.0
1-17Ohio (231.0)MACH69-59W100%0.0
1-21Toledo (79.0)MACH67-60W100%0.0
1-24Ball St. (284.0)MACA52-63W100%0.0
1-27Central Michigan (70.0)MACH63-53W100%0.0
1-30Buffalo (28.0)MACA80-55L0%0.0
2-4Western Michigan (119.0)MACA67-66L0%0.0
2-7Miami OH (229.0)MACH61-60W100%0.0
2-10Akron (115.0)MACA61-52L0%0.0
2-13Toledo (79.0)MACA75-76W100%0.0
2-18Ball St. (284.0)MACH58-53W100%0.0
2-21Ohio (231.0)MACA51-64W100%0.0
2-24Miami OH (229.0)MACA86-81L0%0.0
2-28Buffalo (28.0)MACH65-71L0%0.0
3-3Bowling Green (109.0)MACA80-81W100%0.0
3-6Akron (115.0)MACH79-77W100%0.0
3-12Akron (115.0)MACN51-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC26.2726.2764.8364.837.797.79
AkronMAC5.685.6858.0658.060.920.92
Bowling GreenMAC4.064.0667.8667.861.451.45
BuffaloMAC4.064.0670.0070.001.621.62
Miami OHMAC3.983.9837.9337.93-0.96-0.96
OhioMAC3.983.9835.7135.71-1.14-1.14
ToledoMAC3.963.9664.5264.521.151.15
Ball St.MAC3.933.9322.2222.22-2.18-2.18
Eastern MichiganMAC2.562.5658.6258.620.440.44
Western MichiganMAC2.522.5256.6756.670.340.34
Central MichiganMAC2.502.5074.0774.071.201.20
Northern IllinoisMAC2.442.4446.4346.43-0.17-0.17
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.751.7525.8125.81-0.85-0.85
Youngstown St.Horz1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
Southern IllinoisMVC1.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
North Dakota St.Sum1.711.7172.4172.410.770.77
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.691.6955.1755.170.170.17
Kennesaw St.ASun1.671.6727.5927.59-0.75-0.75
YaleIvy1.661.6665.5265.520.520.52
Arkansas Little RockSB1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
KansasB121.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
UTEPCUSA1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
Wright St.Horz0.240.2431.0331.03-0.09-0.09
DetroitHorz0.240.2441.9441.94-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
UMKCWAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.190.1917.2417.24-0.12-0.12
DrakeMVC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Missouri St.MVC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1683.3383.330.110.11
Green BayHorz0.160.1673.3373.330.070.07
DaytonA100.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1523.0823.08-0.08-0.08
UTSACUSA0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.130.1363.3363.330.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
NorthwesternB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1390.9190.910.110.11
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.1087.100.100.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
DePaulBE0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00