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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:106.0
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:163
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:200


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11106.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15West Virginia (57.0)BEA60-70W100%0.0
11-19Alcorn St. (335.0)SWACH77-58W100%0.0
11-22Cleveland St. (85.0)HorzH53-57L0%0.0
11-28Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)SBH76-67W100%0.0
12-1Morehead St. (166.0)OVCH83-63W100%0.0
12-3UAB (112.0)CUSAH57-48W100%0.0
12-6James Madison (261.0)CAAA51-71W100%0.0
12-10Western Carolina (220.0)SCA56-58W100%0.0
12-20St. Peter's (305.0)MAACN67-58W100%0.0
12-21Texas Arlington (111.0)SlndN74-73L0%0.0
12-22Utah St. (143.0)WACA81-62L0%0.0
12-29Arkansas St. (222.0)SBA54-69W100%0.0
1-7Buffalo (78.0)MACA66-65L0%0.0
1-11Miami OH (247.0)MACH71-67W100%0.0
1-14Bowling Green (158.0)MACH92-87W100%0.0
1-18Ohio (47.0)MACA87-65L0%0.0
1-21Akron (55.0)MACA84-75L0%0.0
1-25Northern Illinois (334.0)MACH90-56W100%0.0
1-28Toledo (246.0)MACA61-77W100%0.0
1-31Central Michigan (280.0)MACA60-67W100%0.0
2-4Western Michigan (205.0)MACH78-73W100%0.0
2-8Eastern Michigan (243.0)MACA58-62W100%0.0
2-11Ball St. (256.0)MACH76-55W100%0.0
2-14Buffalo (78.0)MACH76-71W100%0.0
2-18College of Charleston (122.0)SCH73-80L0%0.0
2-21Miami OH (247.0)MACA62-60L0%0.0
2-25Bowling Green (158.0)MACA74-58L0%0.0
2-29Ohio (47.0)MACH68-61W100%0.0
3-2Akron (55.0)MACH55-61L0%0.0
3-8Western Michigan (205.0)MACN76-72W100%0.0
3-9Akron (55.0)MACN78-74L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC26.2326.2365.2565.258.008.00
AkronMAC5.555.5562.0762.071.341.34
OhioMAC4.084.0880.6580.652.502.50
BuffaloMAC3.953.9565.3865.381.221.22
Bowling GreenMAC3.943.9450.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC3.903.9025.9325.93-1.88-1.88
Western MichiganMAC3.843.8441.9441.94-0.62-0.62
ToledoMAC2.372.3751.6151.610.080.08
Central MichiganMAC2.292.2933.3333.33-0.76-0.76
Ball St.MAC2.292.2950.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC2.292.2914.2914.29-1.63-1.63
Eastern MichiganMAC2.242.2443.3343.33-0.30-0.30
Morehead St.OVC1.751.7551.7251.720.060.06
West VirginiaBE1.741.7461.2961.290.390.39
St. Peter'sMAAC1.721.7216.6716.67-1.15-1.15
Arkansas St.SB1.721.7240.6240.62-0.32-0.32
Cleveland St.Horz1.711.7166.6766.670.570.57
Texas ArlingtonSlnd1.661.6673.3373.330.780.78
Utah St.WAC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonSC1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.661.6651.7251.720.060.06
Western CarolinaSC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC1.641.6425.9325.93-0.79-0.79
James MadisonCAA1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
UABCUSA1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.280.2860.6160.610.060.06
TempleA100.210.2177.4277.420.120.12
Youngstown St.Horz0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
DuquesneA100.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
North TexasSB0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.180.1880.0080.000.110.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSB0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
LamarSlnd0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
The CitadelSC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
NC GreensboroSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
LouisvilleBE0.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1132.0032.00-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.1116.1316.13-0.07-0.07
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckySB0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechWAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
ElonSC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
SamfordSC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Seattleind0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
OaklandSum0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Brigham YoungWCC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0896.4396.430.070.07
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas St.Slnd0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
George MasonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BelmontASun0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
XavierA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.456.45-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HawaiiWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
RutgersBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.053.123.12-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MB120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IowaB100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PacificBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.020.0277.4277.420.010.01