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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:138.4
Current RPI:161
Expected SOS:160
Current SOS:292
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:151
Expected OOC SOS:289



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-539.20.04%
23-650.30.27%
22-762.70.77%
21-874.62.54%
20-988.66.58%
19-10103.111.68%
18-11119.216.46%
17-12134.818.80%
16-13152.018.09%
15-14168.812.00%
14-15187.27.44%
13-16204.43.28%
12-17223.11.61%
11-18245.90.35%
10-19252.10.07%
9-20263.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Youngstown St. (223.9)HorzA61-69W100%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (233.5)MVCH74-51W100%0.0
11-22Illinois Chicago (309.2)HorzH78-60W100%0.0
11-23Yale (79.8)IvyH59-66L0%0.0
11-29Loyola Chicago (131.4)MVCH61-69L0%0.0
12-6Kennesaw St. (311.4)ASunA46-58W100%0.0
12-14Arkansas Little Rock (272.9)SBA55-60W100%0.0
12-19North Carolina A&T (332.0)MEACH71-57W100%0.0
12-21North Dakota St. (175.5)SumN0-063%3.7
12-30Kansas (6.8)B12A0-08%-16.8
1-2Texas Pan American (273.2)WACH0-087%12.9
1-7Bowling Green (97.7)MACH0-055%1.5
1-10Northern Illinois (263.4)MACA0-061%3.3
1-14Eastern Michigan (108.4)MACH0-057%1.9
1-17Ohio (199.5)MACH0-077%8.5
1-21Toledo (92.8)MACH0-052%0.6
1-24Ball St. (228.6)MACA0-050%-0.0
1-27Central Michigan (91.0)MACH0-050%-0.0
1-31Buffalo (41.1)MACA0-020%-9.8
2-4Western Michigan (134.6)MACA0-036%-4.2
2-7Miami OH (272.2)MACH0-085%12.0
2-10Akron (153.5)MACA0-036%-4.1
2-14Toledo (92.8)MACA0-025%-7.8
2-18Ball St. (228.6)MACH0-076%8.4
2-21Ohio (199.5)MACA0-050%0.1
2-24Miami OH (272.2)MACA0-062%3.6
2-28Buffalo (41.1)MACH0-045%-1.4
3-3Bowling Green (97.7)MACA0-028%-6.9
3-6Akron (153.5)MACH0-064%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC27.4726.2968.1857.119.993.74
AkronMAC0.004.2960.0056.610.000.57
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.2675.0067.800.001.52
BuffaloMAC0.004.2477.7871.130.001.79
Miami OHMAC0.004.2430.0028.80-0.00-1.80
OhioMAC0.004.2342.8637.81-0.00-1.03
ToledoMAC0.004.1863.6461.540.000.96
Ball St.MAC0.004.1725.0037.04-0.00-1.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.282.6075.0067.100.140.89
Central MichiganMAC0.282.6085.7171.350.201.11
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.5742.8633.06-0.00-0.87
Western MichiganMAC0.002.5655.5652.200.000.11
Youngstown St.Horz6.511.8850.0044.830.00-0.19
Illinois ChicagoHorz7.191.8820.0021.60-4.31-1.07
Southern IllinoisMVC6.791.8560.0046.481.36-0.13
Loyola ChicagoMVC6.531.8171.4357.172.800.26
North Dakota St.Sum0.261.8155.5655.990.030.22
Kennesaw St.ASun6.531.7936.3629.81-1.78-0.72
YaleIvy6.821.7863.6460.461.860.37
Arkansas Little RockSB6.251.7250.0039.230.00-0.37
KansasB120.001.7290.0069.960.000.69
North Carolina A&TMEAC6.251.720.0024.54-6.25-0.88
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.001.7233.3341.68-0.00-0.29
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2477.7872.060.000.11
Wright St.Horz0.000.2460.0057.890.000.04
OaklandHorz0.000.2427.2732.45-0.00-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2433.3349.35-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.2440.0048.02-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.260.2133.3334.04-0.09-0.07
DrakeMVC0.000.2118.1819.46-0.00-0.13
Chicago St.WAC0.280.210.0011.59-0.28-0.16
Grand CanyonWAC0.280.1836.3645.11-0.08-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.450.1833.3337.22-0.15-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1830.0029.75-0.00-0.07
UMKCWAC0.730.1820.0040.84-0.44-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1881.8273.180.000.08
LongwoodBSth0.280.1820.0025.85-0.17-0.09
DaytonA100.280.1880.0069.770.170.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.260.1833.3343.14-0.09-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1518.1837.71-0.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.280.1537.5031.88-0.07-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.280.1560.0061.600.060.04
Green BayHorz0.000.1575.0077.010.000.08
NorthwesternB100.000.1563.6442.810.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.1430.0039.59-0.11-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.1327.2728.86-0.00-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1337.5034.64-0.00-0.04
IPFWSum0.000.1250.0054.190.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1270.0059.660.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1277.7870.160.000.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1290.9183.090.000.08
St. BonaventureA100.000.1277.7865.110.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.480.000.09
UtahP120.000.1280.0080.520.000.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1218.1830.76-0.00-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1230.0031.48-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0014.00-0.00-0.09
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1255.5655.710.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.520.1263.6467.210.140.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1242.8648.87-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.1255.5648.710.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1044.4455.37-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.280.1027.2738.30-0.13-0.02
UTSACUSA0.390.1037.5035.74-0.10-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0945.4549.62-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.260.090.0027.67-0.26-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0916.6733.39-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0940.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.390.0966.6767.300.130.03
Saint LouisA100.540.0960.0033.270.11-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0940.0046.19-0.06-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0950.0046.690.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.390.0914.2929.82-0.28-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0920.0044.37-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0990.9179.980.000.05
Texas TechB120.000.0990.0055.360.000.01
BryantNEC0.260.0928.5745.89-0.11-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0944.4451.07-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.260.0981.8282.250.170.06
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0966.6766.010.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.570.090.0015.00-0.57-0.06
UMBCAE0.260.0918.1825.30-0.17-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0096.290.000.08
DenverSum0.000.0745.4555.13-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0044.08-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0725.0033.40-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.420.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0611.1120.80-0.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0663.6464.880.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6765.500.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3361.74-0.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3343.83-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0657.1455.330.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0630.0038.57-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.280.0620.0035.33-0.17-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.280.0612.5026.89-0.21-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.43-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.580.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5072.070.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.009.06-0.00-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.0663.6455.660.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0637.5049.31-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.17-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.570.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0672.7372.580.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0031.89-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.32-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.060.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.85-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.710.000.00
DePaulBE0.280.0660.0034.160.06-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.260.069.0917.12-0.21-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.80-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6767.930.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0011.94-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.910.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.05-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0622.2238.44-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.260.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0057.820.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3341.02-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.33-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.17-0.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.63-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.260.0663.6465.220.070.02
LafayettePat0.260.0666.6767.650.090.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.24-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0655.5662.150.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0622.2235.90-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.39-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.53-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.010.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.880.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.51-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0691.6755.310.000.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.410.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0038.030.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.840.000.04
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.240.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.66-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.090.000.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0690.0065.480.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.190.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0636.3648.28-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0670.0062.710.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.020.000.01
OregonP120.000.0670.0057.440.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
VCUA100.000.0672.7375.740.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.080.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.35-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0320.0026.07-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.99-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.390.0314.2915.15-0.28-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3362.72-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0375.0052.140.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.06-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0362.5041.790.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.390.0316.6743.20-0.26-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2935.86-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0350.0040.450.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0355.5673.740.000.02
TulaneAmer0.390.0388.8955.860.300.00
BYUWCC0.450.0370.0068.340.180.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.450.0318.1822.49-0.28-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.450.030.0017.69-0.45-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0336.3650.71-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0060.410.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0370.0060.920.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6777.120.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0355.5638.270.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.008.00-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0370.0061.320.110.01
TulsaAmer0.450.0360.0056.620.090.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.260.0340.0055.01-0.050.00
ButlerBE0.260.0372.7367.960.120.01
CaliforniaP120.260.0390.9169.030.210.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.260.0340.0049.39-0.05-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.260.0350.0058.070.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.72-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.260.0344.4450.41-0.030.00
HartfordAE0.260.0350.0050.620.000.00
HowardMEAC0.260.0330.0043.74-0.10-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0375.0065.140.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.260.0338.4644.61-0.06-0.00
MercerSC0.260.0344.4444.02-0.03-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.27-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.68-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.560.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.260.0390.0082.310.210.02
ProvidenceBE0.260.0375.0057.390.130.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.260.0344.4450.60-0.030.00
RadfordBSth0.260.0355.5658.650.030.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0355.5660.980.000.01
SamfordSC0.260.0333.3330.28-0.09-0.01
SMUAmer0.280.0372.7375.710.130.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.36-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.260.0360.0058.120.050.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0366.6764.770.090.01
UCFAmer0.280.0355.5635.900.03-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
VermontAE0.260.0344.4457.69-0.030.00
Austin PeayOVC0.280.0322.2229.80-0.16-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0360.0065.120.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.280.0320.0046.47-0.17-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0370.0059.220.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.250.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6456.430.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.290.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5063.95-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6749.560.00-0.00