Kent St.

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	131.0
Current RPI:	131
Expected SOS:	149
Current SOS:	149
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	10-8
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-2
Current OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC RPI:	103
Expected OOC SOS:	158

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	131.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	66-62	W	100%
11-13	Temple (42.0)	A10	H	66-80	L	0%
11-16	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	92-63	W	100%
11-18	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	83-88	L	0%
11-20	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	69-68	W	100%
11-24	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	A	60-74	W	100%
11-28	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	A	78-85	W	100%
12-1	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	50-62	L	0%
12-4	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	A	76-60	L	0%
12-9	Xavier (87.0)	A10	A	62-55	L	0%
12-20	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	H	77-48	W	100%
12-22	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	73-69	W	100%
1-2	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	55-72	W	100%
1-9	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	58-70	L	0%
1-12	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	47-61	W	100%
1-16	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	A	68-80	W	100%
1-19	Akron (43.0)	MAC	H	67-71	L	0%
1-23	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	A	70-55	L	0%
1-26	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	H	68-69	L	0%
1-30	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	A	67-65	L	0%
2-2	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	H	77-62	W	100%
2-6	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	82-76	L	0%
2-9	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	H	87-72	W	100%
2-13	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	H	87-70	W	100%
2-16	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	78-75	L	0%
2-23	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	63-70	W	100%
2-27	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	H	83-81	W	100%
3-2	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	A	58-78	W	100%
3-5	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	H	69-61	W	100%
3-8	Akron (43.0)	MAC	A	64-68	W	100%
3-14	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	N	70-68	W	100%
3-15	Akron (43.0)	MAC	N	62-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Kent St.	MAC	26.27	26.27	58.33	58.33	4.38	4.38
Buffalo	MAC	5.41	5.41	41.38	41.38	-0.93	-0.93
Akron	MAC	5.40	5.40	82.14	82.14	3.47	3.47
Bowling Green	MAC	3.91	3.91	35.71	35.71	-1.12	-1.12
Ohio	MAC	3.89	3.89	70.97	70.97	1.63	1.63
Miami OH	MAC	3.86	3.86	28.57	28.57	-1.65	-1.65
Central Michigan	MAC	2.25	2.25	34.48	34.48	-0.70	-0.70
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.23	2.23	43.33	43.33	-0.30	-0.30
Western Michigan	MAC	2.23	2.23	60.00	60.00	0.45	0.45
Ball St.	MAC	2.23	2.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	2.20	2.20	51.85	51.85	0.08	0.08
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.20	2.20	10.71	10.71	-1.73	-1.73
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.90	1.90	39.29	39.29	-0.41	-0.41
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.87	1.87	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.85	1.85	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	1.83	1.83	77.42	77.42	1.00	1.00
Princeton	Ivy	1.76	1.76	57.69	57.69	0.27	0.27
Temple	A10	1.71	1.71	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
Chicago St.	GWC	1.64	1.64	25.93	25.93	-0.79	-0.79
Bucknell	Pat	1.62	1.62	83.87	83.87	1.10	1.10
Drexel	CAA	1.62	1.62	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.61	1.61	38.71	38.71	-0.36	-0.36
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.61	1.61	17.86	17.86	-1.04	-1.04
Nebraska	B10	1.61	1.61	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Xavier	A10	1.61	1.61	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Arkansas St.	SB	1.56	1.56	62.07	62.07	0.38	0.38
Wright St.	Horz	0.39	0.39	62.50	62.50	0.10	0.10
Detroit	Horz	0.39	0.39	60.00	60.00	0.08	0.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.37	0.37	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.31	0.31	20.00	20.00	-0.19	-0.19
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.26	0.26	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.25	0.25	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.23	0.23	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Robert Morris	NEC	0.21	0.21	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Dayton	A10	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	7.14	7.14	-0.11	-0.11
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.11	-0.11
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.10	0.10	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.08	0.08	18.18	18.18	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00