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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:194.9
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:255
Current SOS:346
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:260
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-674.20.04%
23-780.10.15%
22-895.20.61%
21-9109.11.85%
20-10126.04.50%
19-11143.18.53%
18-12161.213.42%
17-13180.917.07%
16-14200.317.72%
15-15220.115.55%
14-16238.910.34%
13-17257.45.89%
12-18273.72.85%
11-19290.81.09%
10-20302.80.30%
9-21309.30.07%
8-22315.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzN74-79W100%0.0
11-16Mississippi Valley St. (316.3)SWACH93-63W100%0.0
11-21South Dakota (217.7)SumN80-77L0%0.0
11-22George Mason (189.3)A10N79-75L0%0.0
11-23Wofford (243.9)SCN66-59W100%0.0
11-27Northeastern (182.8)CAAA73-70L0%0.0
12-2Grambling St. (339.2)SWACH86-57W100%0.0
12-7Niagara (267.5)MAACH0-079%9.8
12-10NJIT (197.6)ASunH0-073%7.4
12-18Wright St. (172.2)HorzH0-069%5.9
12-21Oregon St. (268.9)P12A0-054%1.1
12-27Texas (118.9)B12A0-020%-10.0
1-3Ball St. (242.5)MACH0-070%6.4
1-6Ohio (87.4)MACA0-026%-7.7
1-10Northern Illinois (208.0)MACH0-066%4.9
1-14Western Michigan (219.9)MACA0-051%0.2
1-17Buffalo (135.1)MACH0-059%2.7
1-21Toledo (170.4)MACH0-064%4.2
1-24Northern Illinois (208.0)MACA0-045%-1.4
1-28Central Michigan (160.1)MACH0-063%3.9
1-31Eastern Michigan (100.6)MACA0-030%-6.2
2-4Miami OH (286.7)MACA0-065%4.6
2-7Bowling Green (232.0)MACH0-071%6.7
2-11Toledo (170.4)MACA0-043%-2.1
2-14Miami OH (286.7)MACH0-082%10.8
2-18Akron (81.5)MACA0-024%-8.6
2-21Buffalo (135.1)MACA0-038%-3.6
2-25Ohio (87.4)MACH0-045%-1.4
2-28Bowling Green (232.0)MACA0-051%0.4
3-3Akron (81.5)MACH0-042%-2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC28.2926.2655.1753.422.931.80
Miami OHMAC0.454.1742.8631.23-0.06-1.57
Bowling GreenMAC0.454.1428.5741.72-0.19-0.69
OhioMAC0.004.1183.3372.040.001.81
BuffaloMAC0.004.1133.3352.27-0.000.19
AkronMAC0.004.0871.4369.130.001.56
ToledoMAC0.004.0637.5048.00-0.00-0.16
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.0242.8645.65-0.00-0.35
Western MichiganMAC0.002.5016.6735.56-0.00-0.72
Ball St.MAC0.002.4742.8647.72-0.00-0.11
Central MichiganMAC0.002.4771.4356.930.000.34
Eastern MichiganMAC0.002.4750.0056.250.000.31
Wright St.Horz0.001.8462.5052.530.000.09
Cleveland St.Horz7.141.8133.3332.56-2.38-0.63
Grambling St.SWAC7.141.7828.5732.57-3.06-0.62
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC7.141.730.0026.07-7.14-0.83
NiagaraMAAC0.001.7225.0035.57-0.00-0.50
South DakotaSum7.141.7242.8644.09-1.02-0.20
George MasonA107.141.6757.1445.061.02-0.16
NJITASun0.001.6750.0050.620.000.02
NortheasternCAA7.141.6742.8642.48-1.02-0.25
Oregon St.P120.001.6725.0022.13-0.00-0.93
TexasB120.001.6757.1437.310.00-0.42
WoffordSC7.141.670.0036.10-7.14-0.46
Green BayHorz0.000.2842.8651.95-0.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.260.0021.22-0.00-0.15
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2542.8638.17-0.00-0.06
OaklandHorz0.000.2385.7177.150.000.12
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.200.0013.46-0.00-0.14
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1742.8645.44-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1728.5732.62-0.00-0.06
IUPUISum0.000.1737.5051.64-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.1740.0058.82-0.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1771.4354.860.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1757.1453.990.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1714.2931.28-0.00-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1542.8650.11-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1525.0027.53-0.00-0.07
MercerSC0.450.1442.8647.76-0.06-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1457.1464.030.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.140.0017.13-0.00-0.09
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1485.7174.990.000.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.140.0023.69-0.00-0.07
Fort WayneSum0.400.1471.4370.210.170.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1412.5033.65-0.00-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.1471.4370.390.000.06
CanisiusMAAC0.510.1437.5044.39-0.13-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1483.3377.100.000.08
North FloridaASun0.000.1212.5034.79-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.1271.4359.470.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.630.000.06
Western IllinoisSum0.000.110.0016.68-0.00-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.110.0034.27-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1114.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1150.0066.300.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.400.11100.0091.920.400.09
DelawareCAA0.000.1150.0041.990.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.600.1175.0062.620.300.03
James MadisonCAA0.450.1112.5030.68-0.33-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1142.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1187.5076.230.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.0957.1436.010.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0987.5068.020.000.03
VermontAE0.600.0962.5071.320.150.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0942.8655.09-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0975.0049.180.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0933.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.380.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.090.0038.27-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC1.040.0942.8627.96-0.15-0.04
MaineAE0.450.0914.2924.15-0.32-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.0977.7871.970.000.04
HofstraCAA0.450.0862.5043.220.11-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0871.4358.920.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0850.0061.240.000.02
UCLAP120.000.08100.0086.690.000.06
UMKCWAC0.450.0862.5052.330.110.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0833.3346.01-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.08100.0061.680.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0842.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0828.5723.78-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.450.0842.8653.19-0.060.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0850.0040.600.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0871.4368.070.000.03
West VirginiaB120.400.0885.7183.660.280.05
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5742.90-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0671.4373.040.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.940.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.260.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.12-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.450.060.0018.64-0.45-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.450.0628.5738.15-0.19-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0614.2931.35-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.28-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0622.2241.71-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.070.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0655.5646.970.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.400.0622.2238.49-0.22-0.01
DuquesneA100.510.0644.4442.03-0.06-0.01
HoustonAmer0.890.0685.7178.280.640.03
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.420.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.370.000.00
DrakeMVC0.450.060.0019.67-0.45-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.890.0642.8654.90-0.130.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.360.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5641.690.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.80-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.12-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
USCP120.000.06100.0076.680.000.03
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0557.1451.790.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.450.0571.4355.820.190.01
Michigan St.B100.400.0555.5658.610.040.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.590.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0571.4359.880.000.01
KansasB120.000.0587.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0587.5059.310.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0544.4434.65-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0575.0070.620.000.02
NorthwesternB100.400.0575.0066.170.200.02
OklahomaB120.000.0571.4348.350.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0571.4354.310.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0528.5736.95-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0048.810.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.420.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0537.5052.01-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0587.5062.040.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.83-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5029.71-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.450.0377.7849.900.25-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3333.36-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
LSUSEC0.600.0371.4349.170.26-0.00
Miami FLACC0.600.0375.0066.100.300.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.450.030.0020.75-0.45-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.450.0375.0056.590.220.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0322.2221.23-0.25-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.8650.06-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.450.0387.5078.510.330.02
Arkansas St.SB0.510.0375.0066.370.260.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0064.350.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.510.0314.2932.19-0.36-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0342.8660.54-0.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.39-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
KentuckySEC0.510.0387.5082.800.380.02
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
MontanaBSky0.450.0325.0048.10-0.22-0.00
NebraskaB100.450.0357.1444.890.06-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.510.0375.0054.670.260.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0084.840.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.450.0333.3339.61-0.15-0.01
CornellIvy0.450.0328.5729.95-0.19-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.0311.1148.19-0.35-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.450.0333.3352.84-0.150.00
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.57-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0038.050.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8628.98-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.400.0387.5074.490.300.01
LibertyBSth0.400.0333.3348.07-0.13-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01