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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:107.4
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:136
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-860.80.15%
21-970.92.32%
20-1081.411.28%
19-1194.625.61%
18-12109.131.52%
17-13125.121.50%
16-14141.76.65%
15-15157.90.96%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Youngstown St. (258.7)HorzH79-70W100%0.0
11-18Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA72-69L0%0.0
11-21Marist (313.2)MAACH79-72W100%0.0
11-24St. Francis PA (238.2)NECH79-60W100%0.0
11-28Pittsburgh (47.2)ACCA85-76L0%0.0
12-5Cleveland St. (273.3)HorzA62-66W100%0.0
12-7NJIT (185.9)ASunA75-80W100%0.0
12-10Louisiana Monroe (173.5)SBH73-62W100%0.0
12-12Canisius (216.0)MAACH84-77W100%0.0
12-22SMU (11.5)AmerN90-74L0%0.0
12-23Penn St. (130.3)B10N75-69L0%0.0
12-30North Carolina A&T (334.5)MEACA60-61W100%0.0
1-5Western Michigan (217.6)MACA84-87W100%0.0
1-8Buffalo (92.4)MACH67-76L0%0.0
1-12Miami OH (216.8)MACH76-68W100%0.0
1-16Ohio (98.1)MACH89-82W100%0.0
1-19Ball St. (166.1)MACA68-76W100%0.0
1-23Bowling Green (198.6)MACA59-62W100%0.0
1-26Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACH73-58W100%0.0
1-29Ohio (98.1)MACA72-61L0%0.0
2-2Central Michigan (144.1)MACA88-61L0%0.0
2-6Toledo (139.5)MACH67-82L0%0.0
2-9Northern Illinois (141.2)MACH75-74W100%0.0
2-13Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACA0-033%-4.9
2-16Western Michigan (217.6)MACH0-069%5.3
2-20Akron (33.3)MACH0-037%-3.6
2-23Buffalo (92.4)MACA0-032%-5.1
2-27Miami OH (216.8)MACA0-057%1.9
3-1Bowling Green (198.6)MACH0-073%6.7
3-4Akron (33.3)MACA0-017%-10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC26.2126.2665.7161.648.246.11
BuffaloMAC2.724.1654.5555.060.250.42
Bowling GreenMAC2.764.1652.3848.240.13-0.15
AkronMAC0.654.1182.6181.720.422.61
OhioMAC4.804.1065.0062.271.441.01
Miami OHMAC2.624.0836.3633.92-0.72-1.31
Eastern MichiganMAC2.664.0442.1144.22-0.42-0.47
Western MichiganMAC2.674.0333.3333.96-0.89-1.29
ToledoMAC2.812.5659.0960.730.510.55
Ball St.MAC2.722.4863.6459.160.740.45
Central MichiganMAC2.632.4745.0047.47-0.26-0.13
Northern IllinoisMAC2.722.4763.1659.820.710.49
Cleveland St.Horz2.421.9222.7323.55-1.32-1.02
CanisiusMAAC2.371.8445.8346.82-0.20-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz2.321.8131.8233.51-0.84-0.60
Penn St.B102.321.7847.8344.97-0.10-0.18
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.271.7530.4334.27-0.89-0.55
Louisiana MonroeSB2.261.7245.0048.01-0.23-0.07
MaristMAAC2.221.7222.7325.05-1.21-0.86
NJITASun2.221.7056.5257.260.290.25
St. Francis PANEC2.221.7052.3851.290.110.04
PittsburghACC2.171.6771.4366.480.930.55
SMUAmer2.171.6790.4885.631.761.19
Southern IllinoisMVC2.171.6770.8369.560.910.65
DetroitHorz0.390.2947.6245.85-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.250.2656.5257.010.030.04
OaklandHorz0.330.2368.0067.980.120.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.240.2047.6252.05-0.010.01
Green BayHorz0.140.2054.5556.020.010.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1733.3335.06-0.06-0.05
LipscombASun0.140.1725.0029.30-0.07-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1724.0024.55-0.10-0.09
IonaMAAC0.140.1760.8760.720.030.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1752.1754.170.010.01
VermontAE0.150.1552.0054.860.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.200.155.007.21-0.18-0.12
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1514.2920.67-0.07-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1459.0959.630.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1450.0049.830.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1481.8283.040.120.09
RiderMAAC0.180.1440.0042.11-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.190.1471.4368.940.080.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.1431.8236.14-0.02-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.1443.4842.66-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1279.1776.070.060.06
North FloridaASun0.100.1265.2267.130.030.04
Michigan St.B100.100.1280.0081.600.060.07
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1172.0071.540.040.05
IPFWSum0.100.1170.8368.550.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1150.0054.200.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1150.0051.210.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.1145.8346.64-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.150.1165.2261.470.050.03
PurdueB100.190.1180.0077.930.110.06
DrakeMVC0.090.1120.8323.21-0.05-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.090.1154.1754.140.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1142.8642.05-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1180.0081.160.110.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1136.3636.15-0.04-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1140.9143.29-0.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.140.1164.0064.140.040.03
MichiganB100.190.1169.5766.220.070.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0928.0030.73-0.04-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0937.5043.38-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.140.0976.0076.310.070.05
Notre DameACC0.150.0970.8367.790.060.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.0929.1733.74-0.06-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.150.0969.5764.890.060.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.0947.3749.93-0.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.090.0924.0026.33-0.05-0.04
DuquesneA100.140.0960.8756.430.030.01
MarylandB100.140.0987.5083.700.110.06
BinghamtonAE0.100.0920.8324.09-0.06-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0927.7834.43-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0943.4850.65-0.020.00
USC UpstateASun0.090.0922.7323.24-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.090.0952.0048.860.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.090.0833.3334.01-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0813.6415.77-0.07-0.06
DelawareCAA0.090.0821.7423.34-0.05-0.04
DukeACC0.050.0875.0071.800.020.04
HamptonMEAC0.150.0859.0961.320.030.02
HoustonAmer0.150.0869.5766.580.060.03
South FloridaAmer0.140.0820.0019.68-0.09-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0843.4841.96-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.090.0840.0039.81-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.100.0850.0044.860.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0825.0025.08-0.02-0.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0812.5012.90-0.07-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0852.1751.910.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0656.5256.320.010.01
BryantNEC0.100.0625.0026.39-0.05-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0613.0413.55-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.0650.0051.920.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0647.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.50-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0634.7837.05-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0663.6465.020.010.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.064.357.72-0.09-0.05
AmericanPat0.100.0630.4331.91-0.04-0.02
Ohio St.B100.100.0660.0055.500.020.01
HowardMEAC0.100.0636.3638.92-0.03-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0626.0929.17-0.05-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.4886.910.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0624.0025.67-0.05-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.22-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0640.0038.98-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.090.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0652.1751.510.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.490.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0621.7423.40-0.05-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0657.8961.740.020.01
MercerSC0.050.0669.5769.020.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0631.8229.12-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0633.3334.22-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.580.020.03
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.67-0.02-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0666.6762.530.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0666.6762.650.030.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0636.8437.57-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0623.8126.71-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.0645.8341.65-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.420.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.320.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0656.5259.860.010.01
LehighPat0.090.0636.3639.78-0.03-0.01
BrownIvy0.100.0631.5831.07-0.04-0.02
YaleIvy0.090.0673.6874.680.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0629.1726.74-0.04-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0654.1755.600.010.01
CornellIvy0.090.0642.1140.21-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0631.5831.75-0.03-0.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0626.0927.79-0.05-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0650.0053.100.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0623.8126.56-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0673.9172.480.000.02
DaytonA100.050.0686.9682.300.030.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.22-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9170.050.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0660.8760.820.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0640.9143.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.22-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0656.5262.790.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0682.6178.910.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0638.1037.68-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.650.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0633.3332.36-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0642.8650.39-0.000.00
VCUA100.050.0673.9173.970.020.03
VillanovaBE0.000.0687.5086.910.000.04
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.810.040.04
ColoradoP120.090.0569.5765.330.040.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0518.1821.15-0.06-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0545.0049.25-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0575.0076.250.020.03
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0554.1750.940.000.00
IowaB100.050.0582.6180.550.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0539.1337.81-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0554.1751.880.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.090.0533.3333.04-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0554.1755.020.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0564.0062.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0573.9176.720.040.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.55-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.950.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.33-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.490.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.120.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.33-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.05-0.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.14-0.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.240.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.24-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.830.020.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.580.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.01-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.660.040.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.310.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.940.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.080.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0339.1338.31-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
LafayettePat0.050.0321.7423.00-0.03-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.520.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.370.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0383.3378.390.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.57-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.990.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.170.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.40-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0381.8282.630.030.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0334.7835.65-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0343.4840.46-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.090.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.89-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.91-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.24-0.04-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.54-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0378.2676.810.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0319.0525.89-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.990.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.73-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.540.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.34-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.810.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0327.2731.05-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0345.4538.44-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.160.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.15-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.410.030.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0365.2264.220.010.01
IllinoisB100.000.0345.8344.13-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.040.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0345.4549.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.040.0340.0038.51-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.300.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0321.7420.37-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.040.0336.3633.54-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.040.0352.1751.920.000.00
VMISC0.050.0315.0016.72-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.830.010.00