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Through games of Feb 26, 2015.


Kent St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:95.4
Current RPI:95
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:164
Current Record:18-9
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:10-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:6.78%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:156
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-974.87.70%
20-1087.334.95%
19-1198.541.97%
18-12115.615.37%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Youngstown St. (284.5)HorzA61-69W100%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (289.9)MVCH74-51W100%0.0
11-22Illinois Chicago (311.1)HorzH78-60W100%0.0
11-23Yale (71.0)IvyH59-66L0%0.0
11-29Loyola Chicago (134.9)MVCH61-69L0%0.0
12-6Kennesaw St. (319.6)ASunA46-58W100%0.0
12-14Arkansas Little Rock (258.3)SBA55-60W100%0.0
12-19North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACH71-57W100%0.0
12-21North Dakota St. (125.3)SumN52-53W100%0.0
12-22UTEP (66.5)CUSAA78-75L0%0.0
12-30Kansas (3.5)B12A78-62L0%0.0
1-2Texas Pan American (331.8)WACH74-54W100%0.0
1-7Bowling Green (88.0)MACH64-66L0%0.0
1-10Northern Illinois (215.3)MACA65-67W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Michigan (164.0)MACH65-59W100%0.0
1-17Ohio (233.6)MACH69-59W100%0.0
1-21Toledo (74.2)MACH67-60W100%0.0
1-24Ball St. (268.7)MACA52-63W100%0.0
1-27Central Michigan (68.5)MACH63-53W100%0.0
1-30Buffalo (40.8)MACA80-55L0%0.0
2-4Western Michigan (120.3)MACA67-66L0%0.0
2-7Miami OH (226.9)MACH61-60W100%0.0
2-10Akron (130.3)MACA61-52L0%0.0
2-13Toledo (74.2)MACA75-76W100%0.0
2-18Ball St. (268.7)MACH58-53W100%0.0
2-21Ohio (233.6)MACA51-64W100%0.0
2-24Miami OH (226.9)MACA86-81L0%0.0
2-28Buffalo (40.8)MACH0-043%-1.8
3-3Bowling Green (88.0)MACA0-031%-5.3
3-6Akron (130.3)MACH0-060%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kent St.MAC26.2326.2668.2965.129.607.94
AkronMAC2.564.1457.6958.790.390.73
Bowling GreenMAC2.574.1170.8369.001.071.56
BuffaloMAC2.534.0965.3866.620.781.36
Miami OHMAC4.284.0840.0039.88-0.86-0.83
OhioMAC4.294.0837.5036.22-1.07-1.13
ToledoMAC4.284.0369.2368.181.651.47
Ball St.MAC4.284.0326.0927.13-2.05-1.84
Eastern MichiganMAC2.602.5056.5255.590.340.28
Central MichiganMAC2.602.5081.8279.811.661.49
Northern IllinoisMAC2.562.4841.6741.77-0.43-0.41
Western MichiganMAC2.562.4756.0055.330.310.26
Youngstown St.Horz2.031.8230.7731.70-0.78-0.66
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.021.8118.5219.58-1.27-1.10
Southern IllinoisMVC1.991.7832.1433.49-0.71-0.59
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.951.7553.8554.830.150.17
North Dakota St.Sum1.921.7569.2369.230.740.67
Kennesaw St.ASun1.921.7329.6329.30-0.78-0.72
YaleIvy1.921.7266.6766.870.640.58
Arkansas Little RockSB1.851.6746.1544.56-0.14-0.18
KansasB121.851.6777.7875.661.030.86
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.851.6720.0023.06-1.11-0.90
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.851.6725.0024.87-0.93-0.84
UTEPCUSA1.851.6769.2371.300.710.71
BradleyMVC0.280.2324.1424.87-0.14-0.12
Wright St.Horz0.210.2333.3333.99-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.280.2350.0048.930.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.240.2355.5655.370.030.02
DetroitHorz0.240.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.270.2364.2963.560.080.06
DrakeMVC0.170.2028.5728.58-0.07-0.09
Chicago St.WAC0.210.2015.3815.96-0.14-0.14
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1851.8551.680.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.210.1881.4880.340.130.11
UMKCWAC0.170.1837.0438.77-0.05-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.220.1821.4322.46-0.12-0.10
DaytonA100.180.1777.7874.890.100.09
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1733.3332.84-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.210.1746.4346.69-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.200.1738.4638.56-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.180.1545.8346.23-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1525.0024.46-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.170.1574.0774.330.080.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1531.0334.48-0.06-0.05
NorthwesternB100.180.1550.0048.140.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1416.0015.15-0.12-0.10
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1460.7160.580.040.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1451.7252.280.000.01
IUPUISum0.140.1234.4835.30-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.140.1248.0049.56-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1262.9665.170.030.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1270.3770.390.040.05
UtahP120.140.1280.7780.900.090.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1230.7731.61-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1240.7440.86-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.140.1241.3840.26-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1219.2320.46-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1293.1090.930.110.09
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1289.2988.690.100.09
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1134.6234.47-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1169.2369.910.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.140.1165.3865.140.040.03
CornellIvy0.110.1144.0044.59-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.1153.8555.830.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.1153.8554.220.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1140.0040.10-0.03-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0934.6235.46-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.100.0946.4345.83-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.0938.4639.23-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.0942.3141.62-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.0951.8551.850.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0930.4332.32-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.110.0967.8665.890.040.03
Saint LouisA100.100.0937.0436.55-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0938.4639.97-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0960.0058.430.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0941.6741.69-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0924.0022.68-0.04-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0931.8237.72-0.04-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0928.0029.37-0.05-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.070.0945.8346.48-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0860.7160.420.010.02
BryantNEC0.070.0850.0049.830.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.100.0839.2939.48-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.100.0871.4371.530.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0846.1547.77-0.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0810.7110.56-0.08-0.07
UMBCAE0.070.0814.2914.93-0.05-0.06
Texas TechB120.100.0841.3839.54-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0830.7730.30-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0851.8551.810.000.00
KentuckySEC0.070.08100.0099.450.070.08
MaineAE0.080.0610.7110.50-0.06-0.05
DenverSum0.070.0642.8642.65-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0624.0026.17-0.04-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0651.8552.250.000.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0645.8346.11-0.01-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0632.0033.19-0.03-0.02
IowaB100.070.0664.2964.530.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0625.9326.41-0.04-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.060.001.33-0.07-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.070.0660.0059.190.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0677.7877.760.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.040.0625.9328.09-0.02-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0617.8620.58-0.05-0.03
BelmontOVC0.070.0662.9664.060.020.02
BrownIvy0.070.0640.0039.77-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0652.1753.790.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.063.705.04-0.03-0.05
George WashingtonA100.070.0664.2963.500.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0673.9170.390.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6767.480.020.02
HarvardIvy0.040.0677.2775.880.020.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0622.2221.87-0.04-0.03
LipscombASun0.030.0636.0037.68-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0652.0053.960.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0662.5062.360.020.01
NebraskaB100.070.0646.4345.05-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0675.0077.310.020.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0659.2660.570.010.01
PennIvy0.040.0630.4330.03-0.01-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0646.4346.30-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0624.0025.09-0.04-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0625.9327.35-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0623.0822.37-0.04-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0639.1340.63-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0632.0031.79-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0659.2659.110.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0642.8645.64-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0642.3140.94-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0677.7878.470.040.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0646.4346.88-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0655.5656.050.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0614.2916.10-0.02-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0653.5754.650.000.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0637.0436.04-0.01-0.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0615.3815.98-0.05-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0675.0076.170.030.03
Miami FLACC0.030.0664.2963.100.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0625.0026.22-0.02-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.030.0648.0045.31-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0653.5750.650.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0633.3332.60-0.01-0.02
USCP120.030.0635.7135.30-0.01-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0635.7134.80-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.030.0689.2987.430.030.04
BaylorB120.070.0574.0773.870.030.03
BucknellPat0.070.0555.1754.540.010.00
DukeACC0.070.0589.2988.120.050.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0574.0773.060.030.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0548.2846.44-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0555.5656.230.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0570.3769.820.010.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0561.5461.350.020.01
OregonP120.070.0571.4369.280.030.02
TCUB120.070.0560.7157.550.010.01
VCUA100.070.0575.0074.480.030.03
West VirginiaB120.030.0578.5775.030.020.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0366.6766.660.010.01
CreightonBE0.040.0346.4344.30-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.040.0336.0034.76-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0343.4842.11-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.040.0350.0050.000.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0356.0055.800.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0322.2221.98-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0378.2677.330.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0024.40-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.0873.180.020.01
IdahoBSky0.040.0341.6744.38-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3337.77-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0382.7681.310.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0370.3769.470.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0350.0049.870.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.040.0348.0046.54-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.040.0371.4370.870.020.01
ButlerBE0.030.0371.4370.890.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.4369.470.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0321.4322.23-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0357.1454.110.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.034.004.83-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0367.8667.600.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0359.2658.320.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0342.3143.94-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.040.0348.1547.52-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0348.0048.60-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0360.7161.240.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0340.7444.50-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0355.1756.090.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0350.0050.620.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0325.0025.95-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.040.0357.6959.090.010.01
NJITind0.040.0354.1754.130.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0359.2659.120.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0363.3363.510.010.01
PacificWCC0.040.0334.6234.06-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0367.8667.070.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0351.8552.470.000.00
RadfordBSth0.040.0362.9663.060.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0344.8345.59-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0337.9337.78-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.030.000.45-0.04-0.03
SMUAmer0.030.0381.4880.500.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0329.6331.10-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0364.2960.140.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.5460.520.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0376.9273.060.020.01
UCFAmer0.030.0342.3142.56-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0355.5656.260.000.00
VermontAE0.040.0359.2658.740.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0389.2987.910.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0322.2222.17-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0382.1481.330.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.0026.59-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0365.0063.570.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0385.1984.500.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.0030.33-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7734.56-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0351.8553.170.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0355.5654.230.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0344.4441.78-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.0761.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0369.2367.760.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.0070.730.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0366.6767.390.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0368.9768.670.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0351.8549.580.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0352.0052.970.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.8553.220.000.00