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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:270.5
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:101
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1092.00.01%
18-11117.40.07%
17-12142.50.28%
16-13160.90.62%
15-14182.62.08%
14-15203.14.89%
13-16224.18.72%
12-17243.613.76%
11-18262.616.11%
10-19280.718.02%
9-20296.215.42%
8-21310.410.32%
7-22321.45.74%
6-23330.72.67%
5-24336.10.89%
4-25342.90.33%
3-26343.80.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14DePaul (186.5)BEA72-71L0%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (286.8)SumH67-64W100%0.0
11-21Yale (86.0)IvyN70-58L0%0.0
11-22Kent St. (73.2)MACA78-60L0%0.0
11-23Southern Illinois (180.9)MVCN0-035%-4.6
11-29Dayton (42.8)A10A0-06%-18.3
12-2Grand Canyon (256.1)WACH0-061%3.4
12-6Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCH0-060%2.9
12-11UCF (198.7)AmerH0-049%-0.3
12-15Tennessee Martin (309.1)OVCH0-078%9.4
12-17SMU (29.6)AmerA0-05%-19.7
12-22Northwestern (169.8)B10A0-024%-8.5
12-28Bradley (274.1)MVCA0-043%-2.0
1-2Youngstown St. (275.2)HorzH0-063%3.9
1-4Cleveland St. (166.2)HorzH0-043%-2.1
1-8Valparaiso (174.9)HorzA0-023%-8.9
1-14Detroit (139.0)HorzH0-038%-3.8
1-20Green Bay (105.3)HorzA0-012%-14.2
1-24Youngstown St. (275.2)HorzA0-039%-3.3
1-29Milwaukee (267.7)HorzA0-035%-4.6
1-31Valparaiso (174.9)HorzH0-044%-1.7
2-4Oakland (245.0)HorzH0-057%2.0
2-8Detroit (139.0)HorzA0-018%-11.0
2-12Wright St. (127.6)HorzA0-019%-10.5
2-15Cleveland St. (166.2)HorzA0-022%-9.2
2-19Milwaukee (267.7)HorzH0-059%2.6
2-22Oakland (245.0)HorzA0-033%-5.1
2-26Green Bay (105.3)HorzH0-028%-7.0
2-28Wright St. (127.6)HorzH0-039%-3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz34.3826.4021.4334.22-19.64-8.33
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.3733.3345.41-0.00-0.40
DetroitHorz0.004.3633.3353.13-0.000.27
Youngstown St.Horz2.084.3625.0034.58-1.04-1.35
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.350.0031.47-0.00-1.61
OaklandHorz0.004.330.0030.82-0.00-1.66
Wright St.Horz0.004.3366.6757.710.000.67
ValparaisoHorz0.004.3366.6753.040.000.26
Green BayHorz0.004.320.0066.41-0.001.42
Southern IllinoisMVC4.171.9125.0049.43-2.08-0.02
Kent St.MAC12.501.88100.0069.9412.500.75
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.870.0038.53-0.00-0.43
BradleyMVC0.001.850.0026.76-0.00-0.86
UCFAmer0.001.85100.0046.570.00-0.13
DePaulBE12.501.79100.0035.6312.50-0.51
SMUAmer0.001.7950.0067.950.000.64
Western IllinoisSum12.501.7850.0034.150.00-0.57
YaleIvy12.501.7850.0061.200.000.40
DaytonA100.001.7266.6768.790.000.65
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.7250.0050.140.000.00
NorthwesternB100.001.72100.0040.950.00-0.31
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.7250.0034.160.00-0.55
DrakeMVC3.120.350.0025.08-3.12-0.17
Illinois St.MVC0.000.3150.0052.920.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.27100.0061.500.000.06
Chicago St.WAC0.000.250.0025.43-0.00-0.12
EvansvilleMVC0.000.24100.0063.550.000.07
Wichita St.MVC0.000.24100.0085.100.000.17
Georgia St.SB0.000.200.0057.63-0.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.200.0042.57-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.19100.0084.890.000.13
UMKCWAC0.000.1933.3355.40-0.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.190.0066.25-0.000.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1866.6752.030.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1850.0051.860.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.18100.0072.420.000.08
South FloridaAmer0.000.18100.0046.040.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.18100.0046.020.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.18100.0049.250.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.180.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1866.6734.100.00-0.06
ToledoMAC0.000.1833.3364.19-0.000.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1625.0059.16-0.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.160.0033.55-0.00-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.160.0033.98-0.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1650.0071.840.000.07
BelmontOVC0.000.1666.6773.760.000.07
ConnecticutAmer0.000.15100.0076.190.000.08
Michigan St.B100.000.1566.6771.600.000.06
MichiganB100.000.15100.0064.370.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1450.0031.810.00-0.05
IPFWSum0.000.1350.0063.720.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1333.3349.42-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.13100.0073.660.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.120.0036.36-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.120.0033.25-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1250.0035.040.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3340.99-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0063.820.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.12100.0065.060.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.1250.0053.100.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0061.850.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0054.710.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1050.0053.000.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1050.0044.810.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0064.090.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.730.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0975.0059.530.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0933.3322.74-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0920.0027.80-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0031.23-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0933.3341.92-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0925.0041.91-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.09100.0051.050.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.090.0031.61-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0933.3340.91-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0925.0019.94-0.00-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.89-0.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0056.240.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0966.6765.320.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0071.340.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.0966.6753.050.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0028.50-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0966.6760.610.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0950.0067.960.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0069.670.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0030.790.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.09100.0073.570.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.0925.0037.31-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.09100.0062.040.000.02
MarylandB100.000.09100.0064.500.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.09100.0065.140.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0750.0061.440.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0073.530.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0766.6746.620.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3349.33-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0766.6740.400.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.070.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0052.590.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.080.070.0034.07-2.08-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.97-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6749.590.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.660.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.76-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.330.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0054.970.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.160.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0071.440.000.03
OregonP120.000.06100.0071.440.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0032.70-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6752.320.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.040.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.17-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0057.060.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0069.320.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0031.63-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0062.620.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0040.58-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.850.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0035.64-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.670.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0053.840.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.630.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.02-0.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.990.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0056.270.000.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6750.790.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.91-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0041.720.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0056.980.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6752.550.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6749.370.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.720.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.070.000.03
FordhamA100.000.060.0035.11-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0053.080.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.570.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.44-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.120.00-0.00
PacificWCC2.080.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6744.970.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3336.99-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.900.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.430.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.98-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.07-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0050.76-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0063.070.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3362.56-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3359.57-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6760.720.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6768.230.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6767.200.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0087.190.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.34-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.260.000.00
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0064.270.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.03-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0036.87-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6758.230.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.51-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0049.460.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC2.080.0366.6763.960.690.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0037.890.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0071.090.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.19-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.87-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.93-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0070.850.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.21-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.73-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6761.350.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.48-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0033.75-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01