live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:223.1
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:261
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:339



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-669.00.01%
22-789.20.06%
21-8104.50.29%
20-9119.70.88%
19-10137.42.42%
18-11155.95.65%
17-12176.110.12%
16-13196.814.82%
15-14216.517.65%
14-15235.916.84%
13-16255.413.84%
12-17272.19.44%
11-18288.44.67%
10-19301.82.31%
9-20314.90.74%
8-21321.40.25%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Francisco (170.5)WCCA82-80L0%0.0
11-16UTSA (302.7)CUSAH86-78W100%0.0
11-23Elon (136.0)CAAN80-91L0%0.0
11-25Cal Poly (281.6)BWN84-71W100%0.0
11-26Northern Illinois (209.4)MACA92-81L0%0.0
11-30Chicago St. (292.4)WACH74-58W100%0.0
12-4Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCH0-067%5.4
12-10Grand Canyon (187.1)WACA0-036%-4.3
12-14DePaul (206.1)BEA0-034%-5.0
12-17Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCH0-042%-2.4
12-20Northern Arizona (330.5)BSkyH0-085%12.6
12-30Valparaiso (74.9)HorzH0-034%-5.1
1-6Detroit (301.2)HorzH0-082%10.9
1-8Oakland (89.5)HorzH0-028%-7.0
1-12Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzA0-055%1.6
1-14Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzA0-052%0.7
1-17Milwaukee (251.6)HorzH0-074%7.8
1-22Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA0-017%-11.2
1-27Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzH0-057%2.2
1-29Wright St. (152.2)HorzH0-055%1.4
2-2Green Bay (161.8)HorzA0-034%-5.0
2-4Milwaukee (251.6)HorzA0-055%1.6
2-9Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzH0-072%6.8
2-11Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzH0-074%7.8
2-17Detroit (301.2)HorzA0-065%4.7
2-19Oakland (89.5)HorzA0-014%-13.1
2-21Green Bay (161.8)HorzH0-054%1.2
2-24Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzA0-037%-4.0
2-26Wright St. (152.2)HorzA0-034%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz29.3226.3950.0049.550.00-0.24
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.4533.3333.00-0.00-1.51
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4385.7174.430.002.16
Northern KentuckyHorz0.004.4250.0052.100.000.19
OaklandHorz1.044.4283.3378.380.692.51
Wright St.Horz0.004.4271.4355.770.000.51
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.3916.6729.90-0.00-1.77
DetroitHorz0.004.390.0018.98-0.00-2.72
Green BayHorz0.004.3933.3348.17-0.00-0.16
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.3942.8637.56-0.00-1.09
Chicago St.WAC8.331.930.0017.96-8.33-1.24
Cal PolyBW10.221.8440.0037.26-2.04-0.47
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.8466.6754.290.000.16
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.8250.0055.980.000.22
DePaulBE0.001.8180.0034.910.00-0.55
ElonCAA9.621.7980.0056.535.770.23
Northern IllinoisMAC9.721.7833.3343.27-3.24-0.24
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.7850.0043.910.00-0.22
UTSACUSA9.031.7533.3329.47-3.01-0.72
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.7214.2928.62-0.00-0.74
San FranciscoWCC8.331.7280.0048.925.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.3342.8650.36-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.2442.8661.90-0.000.06
Central MichiganMAC0.000.2166.6756.360.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2150.0059.670.000.04
Indiana St.MVC1.190.2133.3346.81-0.40-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2133.3343.64-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.2140.0061.37-0.000.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1850.0038.430.00-0.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1871.4356.050.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1860.0058.950.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1850.0051.820.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1850.0033.010.00-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1816.6736.45-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.690.1816.6733.69-0.46-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1875.0064.960.000.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.170.0023.26-0.00-0.09
Western IllinoisSum0.000.150.0022.69-0.00-0.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1557.1440.590.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1557.1448.410.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1537.5036.24-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.690.1566.6751.460.230.00
OhioMAC0.000.1580.0068.320.000.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1525.0039.28-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1240.0041.65-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1271.4368.100.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1275.0054.320.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1225.0024.28-0.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.1250.0029.280.00-0.05
SeattleWAC0.000.1220.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1250.0055.850.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.1250.0049.010.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.1250.0052.330.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.1271.4368.660.000.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1250.0054.690.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1233.3341.52-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1240.0040.65-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.1257.1442.660.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1250.0061.590.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.1257.1448.240.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1250.0046.670.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3380.700.000.07
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1257.1459.480.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0086.250.000.08
North DakotaBSky0.000.1233.3353.29-0.000.01
TroySB0.690.0933.3332.23-0.23-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.600.0916.6743.29-0.40-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.690.0950.0035.230.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.690.090.0033.44-0.69-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0920.0041.93-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0983.3361.150.000.02
WisconsinB101.040.0975.0073.840.520.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0033.43-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0928.5727.50-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3369.840.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.690.090.0032.39-0.69-0.03
LamarSlnd0.600.0960.0043.970.12-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0019.30-0.00-0.05
Penn St.B100.000.0962.5043.960.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.600.0940.0050.88-0.120.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0925.0040.37-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.690.090.0021.30-0.69-0.05
DrakeMVC0.000.090.0021.30-0.00-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.22-0.00-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.000.0950.0047.560.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0914.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.460.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.600.0660.0039.610.12-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.690.0666.6732.240.23-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.06100.0069.770.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.690.0666.6751.090.230.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0633.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0671.4374.450.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Notre DameACC1.040.03100.0075.011.040.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Arizona St.P120.690.0357.1436.050.10-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Oregon St.P120.600.0328.5723.76-0.26-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.600.0316.6732.62-0.40-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
Texas St.SB0.600.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00