Illinois Chicago

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	169.0
Current RPI:	169
Expected SOS:	156
Current SOS:	156
Current Record:	16-15
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-3
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	114
Expected OOC SOS:	188

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	169.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	59-52	W	100%
11-16	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	N	66-59	L	0%
11-17	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	N	62-36	W	100%
11-19	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	N	81-86	W	100%
11-24	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	56-45	W	100%
11-27	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	A	46-58	W	100%
12-1	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	44-50	W	100%
12-8	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	64-55	W	100%
12-15	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	H	74-48	W	100%
12-18	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	70-54	L	0%
12-22	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	A	82-70	L	0%
12-29	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	A	74-55	L	0%
1-2	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	H	65-60	W	100%
1-7	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	60-50	L	0%
1-9	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	70-75	L	0%
1-12	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	A	53-47	L	0%
1-16	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	61-59	W	100%
1-19	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	A	98-47	L	0%
1-23	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	60-50	W	100%
1-26	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	49-55	W	100%
1-31	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	60-57	W	100%
2-2	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	66-77	L	0%
2-5	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	86-61	L	0%
2-10	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	A	83-88	W	100%
2-16	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	69-60	L	0%
2-20	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	64-53	L	0%
2-23	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	H	62-63	L	0%
2-26	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	60-55	W	100%
3-2	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	H	67-79	L	0%
3-5	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	82-59	W	100%
3-8	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	N	64-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Illinois Chicago	Horz	26.46	26.46	51.13	51.13	0.60	0.60
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	5.75	5.75	51.72	51.72	0.20	0.20
Cleveland St.	Horz	5.68	5.68	34.62	34.62	-1.75	-1.75
Wright St.	Horz	4.27	4.27	66.67	66.67	1.42	1.42
Valparaiso	Horz	4.26	4.26	76.67	76.67	2.27	2.27
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.18	4.18	46.43	46.43	-0.30	-0.30
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.18	4.18	17.86	17.86	-2.68	-2.68
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.17	4.17	51.85	51.85	0.15	0.15
Detroit	Horz	4.15	4.15	57.14	57.14	0.59	0.59
Toledo	MAC	1.94	1.94	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.93	1.93	14.29	14.29	-1.38	-1.38
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.81	1.81	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Miami OH	MAC	1.77	1.77	24.14	24.14	-0.92	-0.92
New Mexico	MWC	1.74	1.74	84.85	84.85	1.21	1.21
Western Illinois	Sum	1.70	1.70	70.37	70.37	0.69	0.69
Colorado St.	MWC	1.66	1.66	76.67	76.67	0.89	0.89
Mercer	ASun	1.64	1.64	67.74	67.74	0.58	0.58
Bradley	MVC	1.61	1.61	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Iona	MAAC	1.61	1.61	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
Northwestern	B10	1.61	1.61	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	1.61	1.61	14.81	14.81	-1.14	-1.14
Bowling Green	MAC	0.41	0.41	36.67	36.67	-0.11	-0.11
Kent St.	MAC	0.38	0.38	59.38	59.38	0.07	0.07
Central Michigan	MAC	0.32	0.32	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
Ball St.	MAC	0.30	0.30	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.27	0.27	80.65	80.65	0.17	0.17
Western Michigan	MAC	0.27	0.27	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.27	0.27	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Buffalo	MAC	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.22	0.22	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.21	0.21	37.04	37.04	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.21	0.21	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Drake	MVC	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.19	0.19	13.33	13.33	-0.14	-0.14
Michigan	B10	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Evansville	MVC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.16	0.16	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.16	0.16	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.15	0.15	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.14	0.14	28.00	28.00	-0.06	-0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.11	-0.11
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01