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Through games of Jan 24, 2015.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:314.6
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:116
Current Record:3-16
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-7
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:310
Expected OOC SOS:160



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18234.50.02%
10-19255.10.10%
9-20269.90.99%
8-21286.74.48%
7-22300.613.33%
6-23311.426.37%
5-24319.630.80%
4-25325.918.84%
3-26331.65.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14DePaul (155.8)BEA72-71L0%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (307.5)SumH67-64W100%0.0
11-21Yale (77.0)IvyN70-58L0%0.0
11-22Kent St. (100.5)MACA78-60L0%0.0
11-23Southern Illinois (264.9)MVCN60-67L0%0.0
11-29Dayton (38.4)A10A75-41L0%0.0
12-2Grand Canyon (272.3)WACH61-66L0%0.0
12-6Loyola Chicago (125.5)MVCH67-77L0%0.0
12-11UCF (221.9)AmerH71-60W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Martin (166.7)OVCH78-81L0%0.0
12-17SMU (17.9)AmerA67-46L0%0.0
12-22Northwestern (154.7)B10A63-46L0%0.0
12-28Bradley (265.3)MVCA68-60L0%0.0
1-2Youngstown St. (273.1)HorzH77-71W100%0.0
1-4Cleveland St. (126.8)HorzH69-74L0%0.0
1-8Valparaiso (81.2)HorzA85-56L0%0.0
1-14Detroit (174.2)HorzH68-69L0%0.0
1-20Green Bay (54.5)HorzA78-55L0%0.0
1-24Youngstown St. (273.1)HorzA77-64L0%0.0
1-29Milwaukee (277.9)HorzA0-028%-6.4
1-31Valparaiso (81.2)HorzH0-013%-12.4
2-4Oakland (197.0)HorzH0-036%-4.0
2-8Detroit (174.2)HorzA0-013%-12.6
2-12Wright St. (192.2)HorzA0-021%-9.1
2-15Cleveland St. (126.8)HorzA0-08%-15.3
2-19Milwaukee (277.9)HorzH0-051%0.4
2-22Oakland (197.0)HorzA0-017%-10.7
2-26Green Bay (54.5)HorzH0-012%-13.3
2-28Wright St. (192.2)HorzH0-042%-2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz26.4726.3611.1115.32-20.59-18.28
Cleveland St.Horz2.984.3450.0052.530.000.22
DetroitHorz2.854.3338.8942.35-0.63-0.66
Youngstown St.Horz5.614.3333.3332.99-1.87-1.47
MilwaukeeHorz0.404.3327.7827.59-0.18-1.94
OaklandHorz0.284.3033.3337.80-0.09-1.05
Green BayHorz2.904.3077.7876.711.612.30
ValparaisoHorz3.034.3077.7876.991.692.32
Wright St.Horz0.414.3044.4442.71-0.05-0.63
Southern IllinoisMVC2.991.9036.8435.34-0.79-0.56
Kent St.MAC2.981.8770.5963.201.230.49
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.841.8758.8256.910.500.26
BradleyMVC2.841.8426.3228.86-1.34-0.78
UCFAmer2.771.8450.0043.250.00-0.25
DePaulBE2.631.7950.0041.240.00-0.31
SMUAmer2.711.7977.7876.731.500.95
Western IllinoisSum2.701.7833.3329.07-0.90-0.75
YaleIvy2.771.7862.5062.820.690.46
DaytonA102.631.7283.3378.351.750.98
Grand CanyonWAC2.631.7244.4448.66-0.29-0.05
NorthwesternB102.631.7250.0041.360.00-0.30
Tennessee MartinOVC2.631.7256.2556.250.330.22
DrakeMVC0.270.3316.6718.13-0.18-0.21
EvansvilleMVC0.350.3073.6869.120.160.11
Illinois St.MVC0.340.3061.1161.280.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.2775.0071.030.140.11
Chicago St.WAC0.200.245.5611.58-0.18-0.18
Wichita St.MVC0.270.2488.8987.630.210.18
ToledoMAC0.210.2457.8959.450.030.04
Northern IowaMVC0.270.2089.4782.920.220.13
South DakotaSum0.210.1945.0047.79-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1947.3749.58-0.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.290.1863.1661.620.080.04
UMKCWAC0.130.1831.5838.42-0.05-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.140.1863.1666.350.040.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1836.8441.44-0.00-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.140.1833.3332.50-0.05-0.06
WisconsinB100.140.1890.0087.110.110.13
Eastern MichiganMAC0.270.1853.3353.290.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.340.1878.5774.650.190.09
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1847.3744.60-0.01-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1833.3334.70-0.04-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.140.1833.3329.95-0.05-0.07
BelmontOVC0.080.1661.1161.640.020.04
Murray St.OVC0.140.1578.9580.740.080.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.1535.2934.93-0.02-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1535.0043.95-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1535.2931.61-0.04-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.220.1558.8260.180.040.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1565.0063.990.040.04
MichiganB100.210.1457.8950.370.030.00
IPFWSum0.150.1335.2937.84-0.04-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.1338.1040.99-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.1257.8956.220.010.02
TulaneAmer0.220.1263.1653.870.060.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.1238.8943.45-0.06-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.1272.2272.450.030.05
HoustonAmer0.150.1236.8435.27-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.150.1265.0062.140.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.1278.9572.060.080.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.210.1233.3335.68-0.07-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.1237.5037.47-0.04-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.1264.7156.920.020.02
ButlerBE0.150.1270.0069.080.060.04
Saint LouisA100.200.1144.4437.39-0.02-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1061.1160.500.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0952.9458.930.010.02
LongwoodBSth0.210.0921.0526.14-0.12-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0927.7828.23-0.03-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.0938.8940.51-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.220.0922.2232.03-0.12-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0961.1162.930.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0966.6762.710.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.0935.0031.73-0.04-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.0952.3857.180.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.140.0965.0062.970.040.02
George MasonA100.000.0929.4131.61-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.0925.0025.62-0.10-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.0950.0054.950.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.200.0972.2263.510.090.02
UC IrvineBW0.140.0952.9457.380.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0977.7872.280.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.095.5610.98-0.12-0.07
Ohio St.B100.070.0975.0076.160.030.05
HarvardIvy0.070.0964.2965.330.020.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0968.7568.430.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.0927.7828.15-0.06-0.04
VCUA100.070.0984.2180.710.050.05
MarquetteBE0.140.0952.6346.670.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.220.0941.1838.09-0.04-0.02
IndianaB100.140.0978.9568.920.080.03
MarylandB100.000.0985.0077.540.000.05
BuffaloMAC0.070.0966.6765.570.020.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0975.0065.770.040.03
OhioMAC0.140.0941.1838.69-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.080.0745.0047.56-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0738.8940.90-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0765.0068.100.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.0723.5344.31-0.08-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0625.0032.65-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0040.150.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3331.69-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0656.2555.420.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0658.8258.890.010.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0643.7540.74-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0661.1166.550.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0657.1458.270.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0647.0654.29-0.000.01
MaineAE0.070.065.268.87-0.06-0.05
Miami FLACC0.070.0673.6870.620.030.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0633.3330.04-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0053.230.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0666.6758.710.000.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0652.6349.040.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.0616.6722.12-0.09-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0637.5032.90-0.04-0.02
NebraskaB100.080.0663.1651.440.020.00
DavidsonA100.150.0676.4776.560.080.03
ArizonaP120.000.0690.0087.180.000.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0650.0052.250.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0626.3236.33-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0657.8948.810.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0653.3356.330.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0647.0648.21-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0050.790.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0670.0074.650.030.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0677.7868.130.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0683.3376.670.050.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0616.6723.15-0.05-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0650.0062.000.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0666.6767.030.020.02
OregonP120.070.0668.4259.850.030.01
PennIvy0.000.0633.3333.95-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6755.160.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0643.7542.97-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0640.0041.96-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0617.6526.23-0.04-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0647.0649.64-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0623.5329.50-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0635.2938.26-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.06100.0094.460.070.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0661.1159.630.030.01
DuquesneA100.070.0629.4127.40-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.070.0625.0024.65-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.0615.7926.55-0.10-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0664.7156.740.020.01
La SalleA100.070.0652.6352.930.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0680.0071.470.040.02
Georgia TechACC0.140.0650.0045.560.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.0643.7538.83-0.02-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0645.0039.23-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0673.6867.990.030.02
IllinoisB100.070.0661.9060.570.020.01
IowaB100.000.0665.0063.320.000.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0672.2262.360.030.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0670.5961.580.030.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0689.4783.810.050.04
XavierBE0.130.0665.0063.100.040.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0361.5465.600.020.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0337.5043.65-0.02-0.00
PacificWCC0.080.0338.8934.81-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0358.8262.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0344.4443.20-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0317.6518.13-0.05-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0342.1145.74-0.01-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0366.6767.930.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0342.8642.63-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0350.0044.230.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0371.4369.400.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0325.0038.14-0.04-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0323.5327.70-0.04-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0311.7619.36-0.06-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0355.0041.160.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0343.7543.02-0.01-0.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0361.1165.030.020.01
BryantNEC0.080.0350.0049.170.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0370.5973.720.030.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0352.6353.780.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.030.004.40-0.07-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0395.0094.580.060.03
HartfordAE0.080.0355.5655.370.010.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0316.6723.13-0.05-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0354.5565.340.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.03100.0098.440.070.03
LafayettePat0.080.0355.5657.020.010.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0340.0038.39-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0355.0055.870.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0316.6720.02-0.05-0.02
NJITind0.080.0350.0051.930.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0357.8956.620.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0340.0045.22-0.02-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0342.1156.86-0.010.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0338.8936.57-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0347.0654.41-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0355.5654.000.010.00
VermontAE0.080.0350.0056.780.000.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0383.3376.420.050.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0320.0029.52-0.04-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0347.0640.34-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0338.8942.70-0.02-0.00
KansasB120.070.0384.2175.960.050.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0360.0047.800.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0352.6353.030.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0363.1663.590.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0316.6735.38-0.04-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0352.6355.870.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0344.4439.74-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6861.590.030.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0350.0043.330.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0363.1668.460.020.01
ColoradoP120.060.0352.6351.170.000.00
ElonCAA0.070.0347.3744.07-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0338.4633.64-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0350.0052.020.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0325.0025.40-0.03-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0360.0056.670.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0310.5315.25-0.05-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0352.6360.300.000.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0372.2262.220.030.01
Penn St.B100.000.0365.0051.740.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0360.0056.940.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0347.6237.42-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0373.6869.340.030.01