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Through games of Dec 2, 2013.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:264.3
Current RPI:207
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:108
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-5
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1293.00.01%
15-13121.00.01%
14-14149.20.09%
13-15171.50.50%
12-16189.91.37%
11-17208.23.44%
10-18224.27.29%
9-19240.312.91%
8-20255.918.35%
7-21270.220.38%
6-22283.417.87%
5-23295.911.14%
4-24306.85.11%
3-25318.51.32%
2-26325.40.20%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Drake (69.2)MVCH59-61L0%0.0
11-16Eastern Illinois (280.1)OVCH66-86L0%0.0
11-20Northwestern (152.7)B10H58-93L0%0.0
11-25San Diego (132.1)WCCN74-70W100%0.0
11-26Louisiana Tech (50.8)CUSAN78-103L0%0.0
11-27Wagner (202.3)NECN76-94W100%0.0
12-4SMU (70.7)AmerH0-016%-11.9
12-7Loyola Chicago (282.0)MVCA0-033%-5.2
12-14Southeast Missouri St. (154.0)OVCA0-014%-13.1
12-20UC Riverside (296.0)BWA0-038%-3.8
12-23Colorado St. (105.0)MWCA0-010%-15.2
12-28Illinois (57.1)B10N0-09%-16.2
1-2Valparaiso (137.4)HorzA0-011%-15.0
1-7Youngstown St. (158.9)HorzH0-037%-4.1
1-12Wright St. (179.4)HorzA0-015%-12.3
1-16Milwaukee (182.6)HorzH0-042%-2.3
1-19Green Bay (126.7)HorzH0-028%-7.0
1-22Cleveland St. (91.2)HorzH0-026%-7.8
1-25Oakland (201.0)HorzA0-022%-9.2
1-29Detroit (188.6)HorzA0-019%-10.5
2-1Valparaiso (137.4)HorzH0-028%-6.9
2-5Green Bay (126.7)HorzA0-010%-15.1
2-13Cleveland St. (91.2)HorzA0-09%-15.8
2-15Youngstown St. (158.9)HorzA0-016%-12.2
2-18Detroit (188.6)HorzH0-042%-2.4
2-21Oakland (201.0)HorzH0-046%-1.2
2-25Milwaukee (182.6)HorzA0-019%-10.4
3-1Wright St. (179.4)HorzH0-036%-4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz28.8626.3827.7825.36-12.83-13.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.4957.1458.380.000.75
Wright St.Horz0.004.4942.8653.42-0.000.31
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.4975.0052.330.000.21
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4842.8653.90-0.000.35
DetroitHorz0.004.4642.8643.55-0.00-0.57
OaklandHorz0.004.460.0028.21-0.00-1.94
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.4550.0051.650.000.15
Green BayHorz0.004.4450.0059.380.000.83
Eastern IllinoisOVC8.852.000.0033.08-8.85-0.68
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.9128.5728.30-0.00-0.83
IllinoisB100.001.88100.0059.300.000.35
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.8566.6767.990.000.67
NorthwesternB109.171.8542.8638.26-1.31-0.43
DrakeMVC8.331.8580.0063.775.000.51
Colorado St.MWC0.001.7971.4358.700.000.31
Louisiana TechCUSA8.331.7980.0078.045.001.00
San DiegoWCC8.331.7985.7157.265.950.26
SMUAmer0.001.7977.7865.060.000.54
UC RiversideBW0.001.7933.3334.55-0.00-0.55
WagnerNEC8.331.7950.0059.430.000.34
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2537.5045.12-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.25100.0073.400.000.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2350.0042.780.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.2220.0024.63-0.00-0.11
BradleyMVC0.000.2171.4351.240.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.520.2133.3341.11-0.17-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1950.0048.980.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.190.0040.33-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1975.0053.400.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1960.0046.420.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1925.0030.55-0.00-0.07
UCFAmer0.000.1950.0045.910.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1840.0051.39-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.18100.0070.690.000.08
IndianaB100.000.1885.7169.090.000.07
Michigan St.B100.000.18100.0076.680.000.09
PepperdineWCC0.000.1657.1442.800.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1625.0026.70-0.00-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.000.1620.0036.60-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1675.0044.020.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1660.0063.570.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.160.0026.21-0.00-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1685.7159.100.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.1585.7181.000.000.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.520.1514.2938.78-0.37-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.1557.1443.470.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.1587.5075.920.000.08
South DakotaSum0.000.1340.0034.86-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1333.3335.96-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.130.0020.66-0.00-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1366.6762.000.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1366.6764.680.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.1387.5068.120.000.05
OhioMAC0.000.1383.3376.970.000.07
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1280.0079.800.000.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1220.0026.17-0.00-0.06
IUPUISum0.520.120.0021.71-0.52-0.07
AkronMAC0.000.1233.3357.19-0.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1233.3338.12-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1242.8639.13-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1225.0027.79-0.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.1250.0052.940.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1237.5050.91-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.12100.0087.830.000.09
Saint Mary'sWCC1.390.12100.0077.811.390.07
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1271.4354.550.000.01
PurdueB100.830.1275.0045.120.42-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.12100.0079.920.000.07
South FloridaAmer0.000.1266.6743.200.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.600.1275.0052.790.300.01
NebraskaB100.000.1271.4343.850.00-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.000.1014.2941.54-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.1087.5070.570.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1075.0073.860.000.05
IPFWSum0.830.0957.1460.710.120.02
St. John'sBE0.600.0971.4352.130.260.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0925.0023.83-0.00-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0950.0070.090.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0914.2928.35-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0962.5047.630.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0933.3324.28-0.00-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.000.0942.8630.69-0.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.690.0962.5046.950.17-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.520.0983.3368.440.350.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0957.1468.440.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0023.04-0.00-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0966.6765.930.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0950.0050.160.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0966.6751.310.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5034.950.00-0.03
UCLAP120.520.09100.0078.200.520.05
UNLVMWC0.000.0950.0053.920.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0971.4363.710.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0983.3377.340.000.05
MinnesotaB100.000.0971.4359.870.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0080.690.000.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0714.2932.19-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0785.7179.010.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0075.070.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0028.94-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0616.6745.06-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0625.0037.22-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3331.79-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.000.0637.5046.29-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6769.770.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0612.5021.12-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0031.59-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.06100.0078.320.000.04
MercerASun0.000.0642.8668.94-0.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.06100.0079.670.000.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0062.210.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0660.0066.260.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.520.0614.2932.05-0.37-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0018.90-0.00-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0657.1449.130.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.96-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4372.280.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0061.720.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0616.6729.76-0.00-0.02
DavidsonSC0.000.0628.5747.01-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0666.6775.040.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0628.5727.01-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6766.420.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0616.6735.53-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0074.450.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5077.260.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3340.84-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.060.0035.54-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0039.51-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0677.7875.070.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0666.6764.910.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0616.6732.86-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0628.5753.88-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0685.7157.030.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0662.5053.310.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0614.2938.47-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0620.0028.26-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0614.2923.09-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0657.1468.720.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0614.2935.52-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0683.3373.720.000.03
VMIBSth0.000.0640.0034.06-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0625.0033.62-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA101.290.0671.4358.710.550.01
UNC GreensboroSC1.220.0640.0040.65-0.24-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0633.3360.67-0.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3334.71-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0028.49-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0067.340.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0675.0045.790.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.000.0685.7182.120.000.04
MichiganB100.000.0671.4363.450.000.02
MissouriSEC0.520.06100.0068.910.520.02
RutgersAmer0.000.0642.8629.90-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0049.570.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0032.47-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.830.0357.1449.470.12-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0328.5731.56-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0325.0031.72-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0350.0052.120.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0340.0049.41-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0357.1459.930.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0063.200.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0366.6765.920.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.690.0357.1456.140.100.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0340.0045.60-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0387.5066.930.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.600.0320.0041.34-0.36-0.01
DenverSum0.000.030.0037.78-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0360.0042.990.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.520.0340.0031.05-0.10-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0342.8641.27-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0316.6739.27-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0312.5025.74-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0383.3346.040.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0342.8638.20-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.520.0312.5038.65-0.39-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.690.0357.1464.450.100.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0337.5035.96-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0375.0076.420.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.690.0314.2935.76-0.50-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3344.67-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0360.0046.280.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2932.83-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0333.3344.33-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.520.0325.0035.33-0.26-0.01
StetsonASun0.600.030.0023.03-0.60-0.02
VermontAE0.600.0325.0054.29-0.300.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0060.67-0.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.690.0320.0020.99-0.42-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0385.7176.470.000.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.000.0366.6762.050.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.690.0325.0047.64-0.35-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0314.2921.17-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0366.6758.390.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.770.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7168.740.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0340.0053.96-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0385.7163.510.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0387.5081.330.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0357.1447.020.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0316.6752.52-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0383.3369.030.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0371.4362.740.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0316.6716.01-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0366.6766.770.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0025.88-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6737.280.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0366.6744.180.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.520.0342.8650.49-0.070.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0362.5042.570.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0328.5738.26-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0314.2928.96-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0072.910.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0060.320.000.01
StanfordP120.520.0375.0060.620.260.01
TCUB120.000.0350.0029.320.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0056.960.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0333.3335.15-0.00-0.01