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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:306.2
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:156
Current SOS:92
Current Record:2-8
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-5
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16185.30.03%
12-17214.00.07%
11-18228.00.49%
10-19248.61.91%
9-20267.75.17%
8-21284.811.24%
7-22298.718.71%
6-23310.324.06%
5-24318.820.71%
4-25326.212.39%
3-26332.14.56%
2-27336.20.65%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14DePaul (170.6)BEA72-71L0%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (298.1)SumH67-64W100%0.0
11-21Yale (69.2)IvyN70-58L0%0.0
11-22Kent St. (122.7)MACA78-60L0%0.0
11-23Southern Illinois (203.8)MVCN60-67L0%0.0
11-29Dayton (73.0)A10A75-41L0%0.0
12-2Grand Canyon (286.0)WACH61-66L0%0.0
12-6Loyola Chicago (143.3)MVCH67-77L0%0.0
12-11UCF (273.3)AmerH71-60W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Martin (146.2)OVCH78-81L0%0.0
12-17SMU (38.2)AmerA0-03%-22.0
12-22Northwestern (143.6)B10A0-010%-15.3
12-28Bradley (270.8)MVCA0-027%-7.3
1-2Youngstown St. (174.8)HorzH0-038%-3.5
1-4Cleveland St. (149.4)HorzH0-030%-6.2
1-8Valparaiso (99.8)HorzA0-06%-18.0
1-14Detroit (131.7)HorzH0-028%-6.7
1-20Green Bay (44.9)HorzA0-03%-22.2
1-24Youngstown St. (174.8)HorzA0-015%-12.5
1-29Milwaukee (258.2)HorzA0-023%-8.7
1-31Valparaiso (99.8)HorzH0-022%-9.0
2-4Oakland (228.6)HorzH0-050%-0.1
2-8Detroit (131.7)HorzA0-09%-15.7
2-12Wright St. (129.2)HorzA0-011%-14.4
2-15Cleveland St. (149.4)HorzA0-010%-15.2
2-19Milwaukee (258.2)HorzH0-051%0.3
2-22Oakland (228.6)HorzA0-022%-9.1
2-26Green Bay (44.9)HorzH0-013%-13.2
2-28Wright St. (129.2)HorzH0-032%-5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz28.0626.3713.0418.24-20.74-16.75
Cleveland St.Horz0.314.3437.5046.09-0.08-0.34
DetroitHorz0.004.3450.0051.370.000.12
MilwaukeeHorz0.284.3333.3331.80-0.09-1.58
Youngstown St.Horz0.364.3350.0049.390.00-0.05
OaklandHorz0.004.3130.0029.10-0.00-1.80
ValparaisoHorz0.004.3080.0068.420.001.58
Wright St.Horz0.004.3055.5651.160.000.10
Green BayHorz0.004.3071.4376.000.002.23
Southern IllinoisMVC5.611.9155.5648.510.62-0.06
Kent St.MAC5.921.8866.6758.751.970.33
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.361.8760.0053.051.070.11
BradleyMVC0.001.8533.3331.20-0.00-0.69
UCFAmer5.001.8457.1431.250.71-0.69
DePaulBE5.001.7962.5036.851.25-0.47
SMUAmer0.001.7966.6769.590.000.70
Western IllinoisSum5.001.7842.8633.03-0.71-0.61
YaleIvy5.611.7866.6763.301.870.47
DaytonA105.001.7275.0068.522.500.64
Grand CanyonWAC5.001.7233.3342.19-1.67-0.27
NorthwesternB100.001.7266.6743.210.00-0.23
Tennessee MartinOVC5.001.7266.6766.421.670.57
DrakeMVC0.280.3420.0020.57-0.17-0.20
EvansvilleMVC0.000.3175.0070.380.000.12
Illinois St.MVC0.280.3062.5065.100.070.09
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.2775.0066.870.140.09
Chicago St.WAC0.530.240.0011.59-0.53-0.19
Wichita St.MVC0.000.2487.5085.930.000.17
ToledoMAC0.000.2455.5655.960.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.2190.0079.360.000.12
South DakotaSum0.000.1920.0040.86-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1944.4444.67-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.1971.4372.840.000.09
MemphisAmer0.000.1950.0059.030.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1822.2242.30-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.1890.9188.300.000.14
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1833.3334.47-0.00-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1842.8638.69-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1850.0048.280.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1822.2245.74-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.1883.3366.520.190.06
Central MichiganMAC0.250.1883.3363.180.170.05
Miami OHMAC0.280.1822.2227.10-0.15-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1620.0047.17-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1637.5037.27-0.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1660.0062.380.000.04
Murray St.OVC0.000.1550.0058.490.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.150.0023.06-0.25-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.530.1557.1456.000.080.02
Michigan St.B100.420.1570.0070.960.170.06
MichiganB100.000.1455.5642.720.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.1357.1456.130.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1320.0026.66-0.00-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3339.81-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.420.1287.5054.670.310.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.360.1225.0033.31-0.18-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1233.3347.31-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1275.0065.380.000.04
HoustonAmer0.000.1283.3358.570.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0054.040.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.280.1277.7871.340.150.05
ButlerBE0.000.1280.0072.430.000.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1262.5054.950.000.01
Saint LouisA100.250.1255.5631.620.03-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1055.5656.150.000.01
AkronMAC0.310.0960.0056.480.060.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.360.0942.8639.29-0.05-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8655.73-0.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.360.0922.2227.64-0.20-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.250.0922.2231.80-0.14-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.250.0944.4447.24-0.03-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.920.0920.0033.87-0.55-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.310.0966.6765.150.100.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0955.5639.260.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.360.0955.5647.220.04-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0941.6743.24-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.360.0930.0028.28-0.14-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0966.6758.510.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0933.3343.11-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0925.0025.93-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0977.7866.040.150.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0955.5657.230.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.500.090.0017.65-0.50-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.0988.8984.020.000.06
BuffaloMAC0.250.0975.0069.770.130.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0985.7173.700.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.250.0972.7352.480.110.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0942.8644.96-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5072.760.000.04
VCUA100.000.0970.0071.110.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.0940.0034.21-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.250.0980.0057.560.150.01
MarylandB100.000.0990.9167.920.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0744.4455.06-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0737.5051.76-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0757.1454.620.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.0711.1143.47-0.24-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0070.980.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.840.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0620.0026.45-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0611.1130.96-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0637.5032.05-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3639.31-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0046.750.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.440.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.480.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6753.260.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.83-0.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.00-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.46-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0050.98-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8964.140.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0675.0049.190.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2238.58-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.360.0666.6742.930.12-0.01
DavidsonA100.310.0687.5076.910.230.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.930.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.940.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.23-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.640.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.540.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.370.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.41-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.270.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8964.670.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.390.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.94-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0065.07-0.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.93-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0675.0061.240.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.0650.0033.140.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0037.020.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0662.5057.800.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.38-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0662.5053.840.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.98-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0644.4449.60-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.73-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5045.72-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8964.060.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.43-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5064.670.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.250.0655.5655.850.030.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3341.10-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.270.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.140.000.03
George WashingtonA100.280.0666.6766.860.090.02
DuquesneA100.000.0633.3338.84-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0628.5727.72-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0650.0049.920.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0064.650.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.200.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0670.0066.410.000.02
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.660.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.0333.3363.92-0.100.01
IdahoBSky0.310.0337.5049.62-0.08-0.00
PacificWCC0.310.0342.8638.51-0.04-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.310.0357.1456.250.040.00
Arkansas St.SB0.360.0320.0033.83-0.21-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.420.0310.0040.34-0.33-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.17-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5047.890.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.420.0342.8635.74-0.06-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.310.0350.0051.980.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.310.0344.4433.13-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.310.0360.0064.120.060.01
StetsonASun0.310.0311.1129.36-0.24-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.50-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.250.0328.5746.92-0.11-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.220.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6776.390.000.02
FloridaSEC0.250.0360.0064.780.050.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.250.030.0013.10-0.25-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0091.020.000.02
HartfordAE0.250.0350.0050.920.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.250.0316.6733.31-0.17-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0366.6773.810.000.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.900.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0038.270.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.250.03100.0094.460.250.03
LafayettePat0.250.0375.0069.750.130.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2932.21-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.280.0342.8651.80-0.040.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0344.4456.62-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.250.0325.0027.78-0.13-0.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3641.92-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0375.0050.490.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.0337.5046.01-0.06-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0057.760.000.00
StanfordP120.280.0371.4361.160.120.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0067.440.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0328.5726.77-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1145.10-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.90-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8644.92-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.38-0.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.540.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0060.040.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.060.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.280.030.0032.02-0.28-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.280.0366.6741.850.09-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3342.09-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.070.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6751.450.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0039.09-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0056.190.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5639.850.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5048.77-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.53-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.850.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.39-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0350.0061.230.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.340.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.400.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.390.00-0.01