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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:346.0
Current RPI:346
Expected SOS:260
Current SOS:260
Current Record:3-25
Expected Record:3-25
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-11
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:351
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-25346.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13San Francisco (228.0)WCCH75-78L0%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (262.0)SumA84-57L0%0.0
11-28Drake (325.0)MVCA83-62L0%0.0
12-2DePaul (198.0)BEH55-82L0%0.0
12-5UCF (219.0)AmerA88-58L0%0.0
12-12Illinois (149.0)B10N83-79L0%0.0
12-16Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH60-72L0%0.0
12-19Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA64-47L0%0.0
12-29Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH65-70L0%0.0
1-2Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA75-47L0%0.0
1-8Detroit (204.0)HorzA87-69L0%0.0
1-10Oakland (116.0)HorzA86-61L0%0.0
1-14Green Bay (112.0)HorzH76-78L0%0.0
1-16Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH62-87L0%0.0
1-18Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA70-53L0%0.0
1-22Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA82-69L0%0.0
1-24Wright St. (146.0)HorzA80-66L0%0.0
1-28Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH78-82L0%0.0
1-30Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH72-70W100%0.0
2-6Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH55-73L0%0.0
2-11Wright St. (146.0)HorzH64-59W100%0.0
2-13Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH79-77W100%0.0
2-16Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA92-91L0%0.0
2-19Detroit (204.0)HorzH72-83L0%0.0
2-21Oakland (116.0)HorzH63-74L0%0.0
2-26Green Bay (112.0)HorzA85-69L0%0.0
2-28Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA98-85L0%0.0
3-5Wright St. (146.0)HorzN74-43L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz26.4626.467.037.03-22.74-22.74
Wright St.Horz6.506.5060.0060.001.301.30
Green BayHorz4.834.8361.2961.291.091.09
DetroitHorz4.724.7244.4444.44-0.52-0.52
MilwaukeeHorz4.684.6855.1755.170.480.48
OaklandHorz4.654.6563.3363.331.241.24
Cleveland St.Horz4.644.6421.4321.43-2.65-2.65
Youngstown St.Horz4.624.6225.0025.00-2.31-2.31
ValparaisoHorz4.614.6178.5778.572.642.64
Northern KentuckyHorz4.614.6123.0823.08-2.48-2.48
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.002.0043.3343.33-0.27-0.27
DrakeMVC1.931.9317.2417.24-1.26-1.26
Illinois St.MVC1.901.9053.3353.330.130.13
Northern IllinoisMAC1.871.8757.1457.140.270.27
UCFAmer1.851.8537.9337.93-0.45-0.45
DePaulBE1.821.8226.6726.67-0.85-0.85
Western IllinoisSum1.811.8126.0926.09-0.87-0.87
IllinoisB101.791.7942.4242.42-0.27-0.27
San FranciscoWCC1.791.7946.4346.43-0.13-0.13
ToledoMAC0.470.4751.6151.610.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.320.3243.7543.75-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.290.293.453.45-0.27-0.27
South DakotaSum0.270.2740.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.260.2645.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
BradleyMVC0.200.2012.9012.90-0.15-0.15
Wichita St.MVC0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
XavierBE0.200.2084.3884.380.140.14
WisconsinB100.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
AkronMAC0.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Notre DameACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
OhioMAC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
MichiganB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
DenverSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
CreightonBE0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
TulaneAmer0.120.1235.2935.29-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
PurdueB100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01