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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:259.5
Current RPI:261
Expected SOS:309
Current SOS:302
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11187.20.06%
17-12204.50.92%
16-13220.15.17%
15-14235.114.58%
14-15249.625.31%
13-16264.726.34%
12-17279.718.19%
11-18294.37.23%
10-19307.61.93%
9-20319.00.25%
8-21325.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10North Carolina Central (268.4)MEACH65-55W100%0.0
11-13Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10H82-86L0%0.0
11-16Delaware St. (350.3)MEACH95-55W100%0.0
11-18Fort Wayne (189.6)SumH51-67L0%0.0
11-26Kentucky (20.4)SECA107-73L0%0.0
11-29Troy (207.3)SBA87-66L0%0.0
12-2Loyola Chicago (57.4)MVCA85-61L0%0.0
12-9DePaul (187.0)BEH55-65L0%0.0
12-15Dartmouth (318.5)IvyH76-60W100%0.0
12-19Illinois St. (119.5)MVCA71-70L0%0.0
12-21Northern Illinois (225.3)MACA69-63L0%0.0
12-28Wright St. (110.8)HorzA65-61L0%0.0
12-30Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzA86-51L0%0.0
1-4IUPUI (300.2)HorzA65-70W100%0.0
1-10Green Bay (325.1)HorzH84-73W100%0.0
1-12Milwaukee (242.2)HorzH88-73W100%0.0
1-15Oakland (137.4)HorzH68-78L0%0.0
1-18Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzA78-92W100%0.0
1-20Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzA80-87W100%0.0
1-27IUPUI (300.2)HorzH0-074%7.1
1-29Milwaukee (242.2)HorzA0-039%-3.0
2-2Oakland (137.4)HorzA0-020%-9.4
2-4Detroit (297.3)HorzA0-053%0.9
2-8Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzH0-079%8.9
2-10Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzH0-076%7.8
2-16Green Bay (325.1)HorzA0-051%0.4
2-19Detroit (297.3)HorzH0-075%7.3
2-23Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzH0-024%-7.8
2-25Wright St. (110.8)HorzH0-043%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz26.3626.4142.3544.80-4.03-2.74
MilwaukeeHorz3.264.4647.3748.30-0.17-0.15
OaklandHorz3.114.4460.0063.440.621.20
DetroitHorz0.614.4421.0525.22-0.36-2.20
Wright St.Horz3.114.4366.6768.581.041.65
Youngstown St.Horz3.104.4322.2224.47-1.72-2.26
Green BayHorz3.264.4326.3228.21-1.54-1.93
Cleveland St.Horz3.044.4121.0524.15-1.76-2.28
Northern KentuckyHorz3.034.4064.7172.070.891.94
IUPUIHorz3.114.4029.4131.17-1.28-1.66
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.841.9077.7873.271.580.89
Fort WayneSum2.831.9050.0049.830.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC2.931.880.009.41-2.93-1.53
Northern IllinoisMAC2.761.8537.5036.99-0.69-0.48
DePaulBE2.771.8138.8932.05-0.62-0.65
KentuckySEC2.781.7972.2266.901.230.60
Illinois St.MVC2.701.7844.4444.16-0.30-0.21
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.701.7846.6756.19-0.180.22
TroySB2.771.7831.2540.64-1.04-0.33
DartmouthIvy2.631.7223.0827.40-1.42-0.78
Saint Joseph'sA102.631.7247.0649.98-0.15-0.00
ToledoMAC0.270.3266.6767.700.090.11
East Tennessee St.SC0.430.3077.7879.150.240.18
Western MichiganMAC0.190.2952.9452.230.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.350.2444.4444.92-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.210.1942.8635.24-0.03-0.06
BradleyMVC0.210.1865.0057.880.060.03
Indiana St.MVC0.270.1844.4446.02-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.210.1870.0068.300.080.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.200.1746.6746.97-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.150.1564.7162.720.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1510.0019.63-0.11-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.220.1552.6347.520.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.210.1547.0641.41-0.01-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.140.1570.5975.950.060.08
Michigan St.B100.200.1485.0083.200.140.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1329.4133.93-0.06-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1323.5328.69-0.08-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.070.1261.1158.700.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.1255.5656.740.010.02
South DakotaSum0.140.1273.6872.380.070.06
HarvardIvy0.330.1237.5046.69-0.08-0.01
VermontAE0.240.1275.0077.850.120.07
BelmontOVC0.130.1271.4374.660.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1258.8249.760.03-0.00
WisconsinB100.130.1250.0046.300.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1230.0032.52-0.05-0.04
AkronMAC0.210.1247.0644.91-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.129.5217.90-0.12-0.08
DrakeMVC0.070.1255.0048.980.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1233.3333.77-0.05-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.1244.4450.08-0.010.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1255.0052.470.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.1247.3748.77-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.1266.6763.200.020.03
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1268.4263.960.050.03
ButlerBE0.140.1266.6763.070.050.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.1252.3848.530.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1036.8432.76-0.04-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.1052.9460.220.000.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0910.5327.29-0.06-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0915.7920.910.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.140.0933.3336.93-0.05-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.160.0961.9063.140.040.02
Washington St.P120.150.0947.3741.44-0.01-0.02
IndianaB100.140.0957.8950.710.020.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0929.4139.63-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.0918.7536.82-0.09-0.02
UMBCAE0.140.0955.5655.540.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.150.0941.1838.47-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.160.0945.0041.30-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0972.2258.920.030.02
Iowa St.B120.140.0961.1147.220.03-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0927.7831.11-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0947.3746.920.00-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0965.0062.050.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0968.4257.740.030.01
East CarolinaAmer0.140.0942.1132.47-0.02-0.03
MarquetteBE0.150.0968.4260.550.050.02
St. John'sBE0.140.0947.3742.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.140.0994.7490.310.130.07
Chicago St.WAC0.140.090.003.07-0.14-0.08
FloridaSEC0.140.0973.6871.560.070.04
KansasB120.130.0884.2179.750.090.05
BrownIvy0.000.0750.0045.140.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0720.0032.250.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0733.3333.230.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0741.1847.560.00-0.00
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.050.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0625.0028.01-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.370.060.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0672.2272.980.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.0642.1143.51-0.03-0.01
MaineAE0.170.0610.5314.83-0.13-0.04
Notre DameACC0.160.0663.1661.020.040.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.460.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0620.0041.73-0.04-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0627.7834.500.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0627.7831.71-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0627.7838.14-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0631.5832.72-0.03-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0666.6765.370.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0666.6765.520.030.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0660.0064.110.010.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.04-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0683.3381.370.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0626.6729.040.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0058.540.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0650.0045.870.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.150.0647.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.140.0678.9576.990.080.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0672.2274.930.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5058.690.000.01
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0638.8944.08-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0638.8940.78-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.065.8819.350.00-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0676.1970.740.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.140.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0657.8954.500.000.01
TulsaAmer0.140.0655.0053.320.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0668.4270.810.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0668.4264.200.030.02
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0652.6345.860.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0661.1151.910.030.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0689.4785.550.050.04
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0070.700.000.02
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.070.030.00
La SalleA100.000.0640.0042.690.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.050.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0670.0060.470.030.01
RutgersB100.070.0655.0046.690.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0067.890.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0666.6768.730.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.080.050.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0637.5045.24-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0668.4261.230.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0672.2268.930.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0621.0544.26-0.04-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0663.1665.970.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0371.4370.240.040.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0365.0054.670.030.00
BryantNEC0.090.039.5217.12-0.08-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.090.0322.2228.66-0.05-0.01
New HampshireAE0.090.0333.3340.08-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0335.0031.83-0.03-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0330.0033.47-0.04-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0370.0071.230.030.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0350.0054.190.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0368.4263.650.030.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.26-0.04-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0327.7840.97-0.04-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.50-0.04-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3337.230.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0330.0036.50-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0368.7563.990.030.01
Little RockSB0.000.0322.2225.250.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00
UABCUSA0.080.0361.1164.130.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0360.0062.030.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.240.040.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0325.0031.45-0.03-0.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.02-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.260.010.01
IowaB100.080.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0350.0050.860.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.67-0.07-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0366.6759.820.020.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0385.7182.090.050.02
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.5316.75-0.05-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.020.020.01
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.450.000.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.48-0.01-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.850.020.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.430.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.360.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.45-0.05-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.700.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.980.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.000.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.940.020.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0378.9569.790.040.01
LSUSEC0.070.0361.1153.170.020.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.020.020.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0384.2178.170.000.02