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Through games of Mar 3, 2015.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:305.3
Current RPI:303
Expected SOS:172
Current SOS:166
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23305.3100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14DePaul (175.5)BEA72-71L0%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (328.7)SumH67-64W100%0.0
11-21Yale (65.8)IvyN70-58L0%0.0
11-22Kent St. (91.4)MACA78-60L0%0.0
11-23Southern Illinois (285.7)MVCN60-67L0%0.0
11-29Dayton (27.8)A10A75-41L0%0.0
12-2Grand Canyon (278.6)WACH61-66L0%0.0
12-6Loyola Chicago (124.9)MVCH67-77L0%0.0
12-11UCF (235.0)AmerH71-60W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Martin (167.4)OVCH78-81L0%0.0
12-17SMU (18.1)AmerA67-46L0%0.0
12-22Northwestern (113.4)B10A63-46L0%0.0
12-28Bradley (294.1)MVCA68-60L0%0.0
1-2Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzH77-71W100%0.0
1-4Cleveland St. (126.5)HorzH69-74L0%0.0
1-8Valparaiso (64.6)HorzA85-56L0%0.0
1-14Detroit (199.2)HorzH68-69L0%0.0
1-20Green Bay (60.7)HorzA78-55L0%0.0
1-24Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzA77-64L0%0.0
1-29Milwaukee (208.6)HorzA71-65L0%0.0
1-31Valparaiso (64.6)HorzH65-70L0%0.0
2-4Oakland (130.8)HorzH77-91L0%0.0
2-8Detroit (199.2)HorzA73-83W100%0.0
2-12Wright St. (263.1)HorzA75-79W100%0.0
2-15Cleveland St. (126.5)HorzA67-59L0%0.0
2-19Milwaukee (208.6)HorzH60-71L0%0.0
2-22Oakland (130.8)HorzA81-56L0%0.0
2-26Green Bay (60.7)HorzH67-72L0%0.0
2-28Wright St. (263.1)HorzH61-46W100%0.0
3-3Wright St. (263.1)HorzH60-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz26.4626.4521.0121.01-15.34-15.33
Wright St.Horz5.825.8234.6234.62-1.79-1.79
DetroitHorz4.304.3042.8642.86-0.61-0.61
Youngstown St.Horz4.294.2925.9325.93-2.07-2.07
Cleveland St.Horz4.244.2450.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz4.234.2338.4638.46-0.98-0.98
OaklandHorz4.214.2144.4444.44-0.47-0.47
Green BayHorz4.204.2073.0873.081.941.94
ValparaisoHorz4.204.2080.7780.772.592.59
Southern IllinoisMVC1.841.8431.0331.03-0.70-0.70
Kent St.MAC1.811.8164.2964.200.520.51
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.811.8155.5655.560.200.20
BradleyMVC1.781.7820.6920.69-1.04-1.04
UCFAmer1.781.7842.3142.19-0.27-0.28
DePaulBE1.731.7337.9337.57-0.42-0.43
SMUAmer1.731.7377.7877.770.960.96
Western IllinoisSum1.731.7325.0025.00-0.86-0.86
YaleIvy1.721.7269.2367.640.660.61
DaytonA101.671.6778.5777.920.950.93
Grand CanyonWAC1.671.6748.1548.56-0.06-0.05
NorthwesternB101.671.6748.2847.05-0.06-0.10
Tennessee MartinOVC1.671.6757.6957.690.260.26
DrakeMVC0.320.3227.5927.59-0.14-0.14
EvansvilleMVC0.320.3262.0762.070.080.08
Illinois St.MVC0.290.2962.0762.070.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.290.2870.3768.760.120.11
Chicago St.WAC0.230.2318.5217.91-0.15-0.15
ToledoMAC0.230.2363.3363.000.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.230.2389.6689.660.180.18
BelmontOVC0.200.2064.2964.290.060.06
Northern IowaMVC0.200.2090.0090.000.160.16
Miami OHMAC0.200.2041.3841.54-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.180.1853.5753.570.010.01
MemphisAmer0.180.1858.6256.800.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.180.1867.8668.270.060.06
UMKCWAC0.180.1739.2940.08-0.04-0.03
WisconsinB100.170.1789.6687.990.140.13
South FloridaAmer0.150.1725.0026.97-0.07-0.08
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1753.8553.590.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1776.0075.230.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.150.1585.7185.710.110.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1540.7440.41-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1460.7160.310.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.140.1465.5265.430.040.04
MichiganB100.140.1446.4347.81-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1251.8551.850.000.00
TulaneAmer0.120.1248.1548.97-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.9768.280.050.04
HoustonAmer0.120.1235.7136.33-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.120.1268.9768.630.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.120.1279.3178.090.070.07
USC UpstateASun0.120.1264.2964.290.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1242.8642.03-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.120.1222.2223.22-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.110.1129.6328.86-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.110.1172.4172.030.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1157.1456.690.020.02
ButlerBE0.110.1170.0069.370.050.04
Saint LouisA100.110.1135.7134.54-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0966.6766.670.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0928.5729.92-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.060.0958.6257.940.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.090.0948.2848.80-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.0957.6958.370.010.01
VCUA100.090.0972.4172.030.040.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0977.7875.110.030.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0956.6757.720.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0925.9325.32-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0961.5461.540.020.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0940.7440.34-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0975.0075.310.030.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0968.9768.960.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0924.0024.52-0.05-0.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0839.2940.47-0.01-0.02
BrownIvy0.090.0840.7438.91-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.090.0863.3362.760.020.02
MarylandB100.090.0883.3382.770.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.090.0868.9769.160.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.3771.010.030.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.0868.9767.780.030.03
OhioMAC0.090.0832.1432.89-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0628.5730.86-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0635.4836.31-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0637.9337.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0653.8555.440.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0679.3177.770.030.03
MaineAE0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.060.0633.3331.66-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0662.0761.970.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0627.5927.74-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0657.6958.440.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0659.2658.600.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0625.9327.44-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0696.5595.280.060.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0626.9225.64-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.060.0646.4344.97-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0676.9276.720.030.03
ArizonaP120.060.0689.6689.940.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0637.0437.86-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0655.1753.700.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0648.0048.70-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.060.0644.4444.54-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0646.1547.13-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0672.4172.010.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0662.9664.240.020.02
PennIvy0.060.0628.0028.97-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0662.0761.400.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0646.1547.66-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0648.0047.71-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0630.7731.10-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0655.5655.060.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0651.7252.550.000.00
DuquesneA100.060.0634.6233.87-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0630.7731.66-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0651.7251.450.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.0024.22-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
OregonP120.060.0672.4171.810.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0625.9327.35-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0655.5656.810.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0562.0762.660.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0544.4444.64-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0543.3342.98-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0567.8668.360.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0562.0761.980.010.01
IowaB100.030.0566.6767.370.010.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0557.1455.540.010.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0567.8665.690.020.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0593.3393.160.050.05
XavierBE0.060.0560.0060.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0360.8761.600.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0344.0044.87-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0338.4639.08-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.0775.610.010.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0324.0024.99-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0350.0049.980.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0370.8368.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.4836.59-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0330.7731.72-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0343.3342.03-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0344.0045.87-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0369.2369.520.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.574.54-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.3393.330.030.02
HartfordAE0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0315.3816.35-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0359.0960.700.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.0099.900.030.03
LafayettePat0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0344.0043.04-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0321.4321.45-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0354.1754.160.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0358.6260.310.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0346.1544.69-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0353.8554.390.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0357.1457.410.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0370.3768.770.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.0029.86-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0337.9338.69-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0380.0078.510.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0350.0048.800.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0358.6257.150.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0366.6766.640.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0327.2727.96-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0358.6259.660.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0342.8641.91-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0358.6257.110.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.8556.020.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.8669.240.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.4346.73-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0331.8231.52-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.1456.740.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.0020.58-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0357.1456.750.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0351.7249.590.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0365.5264.170.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0333.3332.69-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0364.2961.960.010.01