Illinois Chicago

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	297.0
Current RPI:	297
Expected SOS:	209
Current SOS:	209
Current Record:	7-21
Expected Record:	7-21
Current Conf Record:	3-16
Expected Conf Record:	3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-6
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	232
Expected OOC SOS:	292

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-21	297.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	A	68-57	L	0%
11-23	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	H	79-75	W	100%
11-26	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	A	82-67	L	0%
12-1	Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)	Horz	A	71-68	L	0%
12-3	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	A	73-71	L	0%
12-10	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	H	62-55	W	100%
12-13	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	A	95-53	L	0%
12-16	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	A	70-67	L	0%
12-19	Western Illinois (150.0)	Sum	H	57-56	W	100%
12-23	Dayton (81.0)	A10	A	64-57	L	0%
12-29	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	H	63-59	W	100%
12-31	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	H	70-74	L	0%
1-5	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	A	73-56	L	0%
1-7	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	A	71-50	L	0%
1-14	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	H	58-51	W	100%
1-19	Butler (113.0)	Horz	H	49-57	L	0%
1-21	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	H	55-60	L	0%
1-25	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	A	69-63	L	0%
1-27	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	A	70-66	L	0%
2-2	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	H	72-68	W	100%
2-5	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	H	42-70	L	0%
2-11	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	A	78-69	L	0%
2-14	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	A	74-65	L	0%
2-18	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	A	63-67	W	100%
2-21	Butler (113.0)	Horz	A	69-44	L	0%
2-23	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	H	61-72	L	0%
2-25	Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)	Horz	H	63-71	L	0%
2-28	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	A	68-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Illinois Chicago	Horz	26.46	26.46	22.32	22.32	-14.65	-14.65
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	6.38	6.38	53.57	53.57	0.46	0.46
Detroit	Horz	4.81	4.81	61.29	61.29	1.09	1.09
Butler	Horz	4.80	4.80	54.84	54.84	0.46	0.46
Valparaiso	Horz	4.70	4.70	62.07	62.07	1.14	1.14
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.70	4.70	48.15	48.15	-0.17	-0.17
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.67	4.67	18.52	18.52	-2.94	-2.94
Wright St.	Horz	4.65	4.65	34.48	34.48	-1.44	-1.44
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.65	4.65	65.52	65.52	1.44	1.44
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	4.64	4.64	42.31	42.31	-0.71	-0.71
Toledo	MAC	2.17	2.17	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.16	2.16	14.29	14.29	-1.54	-1.54
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.06	2.06	40.00	40.00	-0.41	-0.41
Central Michigan	MAC	2.05	2.05	30.00	30.00	-0.82	-0.82
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.91	1.91	38.46	38.46	-0.44	-0.44
Western Illinois	Sum	1.88	1.88	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Evansville	MVC	1.87	1.87	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Dayton	A10	1.82	1.82	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
Oregon St.	P12	1.79	1.79	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Western Michigan	MAC	0.40	0.40	39.39	39.39	-0.09	-0.09
Akron	MAC	0.35	0.35	65.62	65.62	0.11	0.11
Ball St.	MAC	0.29	0.29	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.26	0.26	27.59	27.59	-0.12	-0.12
Bowling Green	MAC	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.24	0.24	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.21	0.21	64.29	64.29	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
DePaul	BE	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Wisconsin	B10	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Idaho	WAC	0.15	0.15	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.12	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	21.88	21.88	-0.07	-0.07
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.10	0.10	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	96.43	96.43	0.09	0.09
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	6.90	6.90	-0.06	-0.06
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00