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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:241.3
Current RPI:247
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:272
Current Record:12-15
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:7-9
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15222.86.56%
13-16235.238.64%
12-17247.854.80%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Francisco (84.9)WCCA82-80L0%0.0
11-16UTSA (301.2)CUSAH86-78W100%0.0
11-23Elon (135.4)CAAN80-91L0%0.0
11-25Cal Poly (314.5)BWN84-71W100%0.0
11-26Northern Illinois (217.2)MACA92-81L0%0.0
11-30Chicago St. (314.1)WACH74-58W100%0.0
12-4Eastern Illinois (257.5)OVCH76-90L0%0.0
12-10Grand Canyon (149.6)WACA73-69L0%0.0
12-14DePaul (227.3)BEA75-80W100%0.0
12-17Loyola Chicago (152.6)MVCH75-81L0%0.0
12-20Northern Arizona (339.2)BSkyH75-65W100%0.0
12-30Valparaiso (62.5)HorzH59-70L0%0.0
1-6Detroit (287.1)HorzH78-64W100%0.0
1-8Oakland (115.8)HorzH57-58L0%0.0
1-12Cleveland St. (251.5)HorzA54-59W100%0.0
1-14Youngstown St. (269.3)HorzA89-92W100%0.0
1-17Milwaukee (274.5)HorzH71-57W100%0.0
1-22Valparaiso (62.5)HorzA96-65L0%0.0
1-27Northern Kentucky (116.8)HorzH62-79L0%0.0
1-29Wright St. (116.2)HorzH86-88L0%0.0
2-2Green Bay (132.9)HorzA84-80L0%0.0
2-4Milwaukee (274.5)HorzA100-105W100%0.0
2-9Youngstown St. (269.3)HorzH84-81W100%0.0
2-11Cleveland St. (251.5)HorzH63-66L0%0.0
2-17Detroit (287.1)HorzA69-74W100%0.0
2-19Oakland (115.8)HorzA87-75L0%0.0
2-21Green Bay (132.9)HorzH79-87L0%0.0
2-24Northern Kentucky (116.8)HorzA0-025%-7.2
2-26Wright St. (116.2)HorzA0-027%-6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz26.4026.3942.3442.49-4.05-3.97
MilwaukeeHorz4.584.4626.9228.12-2.12-1.95
ValparaisoHorz4.624.4376.9275.772.492.28
Northern KentuckyHorz2.844.4361.5460.760.650.95
OaklandHorz4.554.4372.0071.532.001.91
Wright St.Horz2.834.4361.5460.670.650.94
Cleveland St.Horz4.594.4023.0824.98-2.47-2.20
DetroitHorz4.514.4024.0024.03-2.35-2.28
Youngstown St.Horz4.594.4034.6234.28-1.41-1.38
Green BayHorz4.514.3954.1755.090.380.45
Chicago St.WAC2.061.9312.5012.24-1.54-1.46
Cal PolyBW2.001.8426.0928.78-0.95-0.78
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.951.8455.5655.530.220.20
Grand CanyonWAC1.931.8264.0064.190.540.52
DePaulBE1.961.8133.3331.92-0.65-0.66
ElonCAA1.931.7953.8555.360.150.19
Northern IllinoisMAC1.921.7845.8345.46-0.16-0.16
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.891.7844.0044.92-0.23-0.18
UTSACUSA1.891.7537.5037.25-0.47-0.45
Northern ArizonaBSky1.851.7224.0023.93-0.96-0.90
San FranciscoWCC1.851.7262.9663.230.480.46
ToledoMAC0.350.3348.1549.49-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.250.2446.1546.49-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.250.2253.8551.910.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.2140.7440.19-0.05-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.240.2135.7135.66-0.07-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.2169.5771.400.060.09
Missouri St.MVC0.240.2051.7250.330.010.00
UMKCWAC0.140.1848.0046.99-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1840.7442.17-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.170.1855.5655.100.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.140.1830.7729.92-0.05-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.1834.7836.63-0.07-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1842.3143.63-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.170.1816.0018.13-0.12-0.11
Southern UtahBSky0.210.1712.0013.36-0.16-0.13
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1614.8115.43-0.10-0.11
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1526.0925.92-0.08-0.07
UC DavisBW0.180.1556.0055.930.020.02
BelmontOVC0.170.1580.0079.920.100.09
OhioMAC0.170.1568.0068.550.060.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1537.9339.64-0.04-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1564.0065.600.030.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1450.0049.560.00-0.00
TroySB0.140.1253.8552.820.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1230.7730.10-0.04-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1259.2659.740.030.02
BradleyMVC0.140.1234.4834.78-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1237.5039.90-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1283.3384.080.100.08
SeattleWAC0.150.1239.1337.81-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1228.0028.37-0.06-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.100.1262.9661.340.030.03
PacificWCC0.140.1232.1432.21-0.05-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.140.1251.8554.430.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1258.6258.690.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.1237.0435.10-0.02-0.04
IllinoisB100.100.1255.5655.020.010.01
Michigan St.B100.130.1259.2657.930.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1250.0048.510.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.1248.2848.17-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1277.7877.990.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1250.0049.370.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.130.1282.1481.760.090.07
North DakotaBSky0.110.1263.6464.970.030.04
BYUWCC0.130.1165.5264.140.040.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0943.4843.27-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.110.0981.4880.840.070.06
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0944.0046.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.0944.0042.77-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0926.0928.38-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0912.5014.87-0.05-0.06
AkronMAC0.100.0977.7876.390.060.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0946.1546.92-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0921.4321.43-0.06-0.05
Penn St.B100.070.0950.0048.740.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0948.1547.60-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.070.0947.8350.77-0.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.070.0929.6328.42-0.03-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0952.1749.960.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0982.1481.630.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0957.6958.100.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.0940.0041.64-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.0922.2223.45-0.06-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0925.9326.05-0.05-0.04
LamarSlnd0.100.0950.0052.050.000.00
MontanaBSky0.100.0950.0050.340.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.100.0946.1546.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0940.9144.15-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0934.7836.95-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.0940.7440.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.0950.0049.130.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0632.1431.02-0.03-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0650.0049.820.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0648.0047.45-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0660.7159.890.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0640.7442.89-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0651.8551.270.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0657.6956.380.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0657.6957.750.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0626.9225.66-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0660.8762.050.020.01
WashingtonP120.070.0633.3332.52-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0625.0025.07-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0669.2368.600.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0620.0022.21-0.04-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0641.6742.37-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0671.4372.700.030.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0628.5729.06-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0678.5776.170.040.03
DuquesneA100.070.0635.7134.58-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0642.8643.65-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0630.4331.13-0.01-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0678.5776.210.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0660.0060.590.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0653.8554.930.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0660.0059.400.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0642.8642.57-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0026.38-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0669.2370.270.030.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0633.3332.68-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0678.5778.260.040.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0657.6958.050.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0631.0331.60-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0675.0077.120.020.03
North FloridaASun0.030.0630.7732.11-0.01-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0648.1547.59-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0653.5752.340.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0682.1480.780.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0624.0022.54-0.04-0.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0664.2961.960.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0681.4881.510.040.04
West VirginiaB120.030.0678.5777.800.020.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0686.2186.330.050.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0652.0053.050.000.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0671.4368.340.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0661.5459.750.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.06100.0099.810.070.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0646.1546.35-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0666.6763.170.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0629.1731.48-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.070.0685.7185.930.050.04
PortlandWCC0.070.0629.6329.44-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0666.6766.780.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0688.8989.350.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0678.5777.620.040.03
CreightonBE0.070.0677.7875.390.040.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0662.9661.410.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0660.7160.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0662.9661.760.010.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0689.6688.760.050.04
XavierBE0.030.0664.2964.300.010.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0329.6331.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0325.9325.77-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0337.0436.81-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0346.4344.09-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0350.0050.440.000.00
CaliforniaP120.040.0366.6766.210.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0375.0073.470.020.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0375.0074.370.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.7374.040.020.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0358.6259.810.010.01
ArizonaP120.040.0389.2987.680.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0322.2224.27-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0378.5778.520.020.02
MaristMAAC0.040.0324.1424.50-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0353.8554.710.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0314.2918.10-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0325.0025.84-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0361.5462.870.000.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0314.2913.58-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0330.7734.71-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0338.4640.55-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0364.0063.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0337.0438.57-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0357.1457.270.000.00
Texas St.SB0.040.0354.1753.210.000.00
Texas TechB120.040.0360.7159.310.010.01
UABCUSA0.040.0351.8553.220.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0374.0773.870.020.01
Washington St.P120.030.0342.3139.94-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.3636.47-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.0028.91-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0316.0016.87-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.040.0344.0043.41-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0335.7134.80-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0360.0060.170.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.040.0360.8760.770.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.33-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0348.2850.61-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.8553.510.000.00