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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:297.0
Current RPI:297
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:173
Current Record:8-24
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:317
Expected OOC SOS:182



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-24297.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14DePaul (197.0)BEA72-71L0%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (328.0)SumH67-64W100%0.0
11-21Yale (64.0)IvyN70-58L0%0.0
11-22Kent St. (94.0)MACA78-60L0%0.0
11-23Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCN60-67L0%0.0
11-29Dayton (32.0)A10A75-41L0%0.0
12-2Grand Canyon (274.0)WACH61-66L0%0.0
12-6Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH67-77L0%0.0
12-11UCF (257.0)AmerH71-60W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH78-81L0%0.0
12-17SMU (12.0)AmerA67-46L0%0.0
12-22Northwestern (125.0)B10A63-46L0%0.0
12-28Bradley (288.0)MVCA68-60L0%0.0
1-2Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH77-71W100%0.0
1-4Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH69-74L0%0.0
1-8Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA85-56L0%0.0
1-14Detroit (205.0)HorzH68-69L0%0.0
1-20Green Bay (54.0)HorzA78-55L0%0.0
1-24Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzA77-64L0%0.0
1-29Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA71-65L0%0.0
1-31Valparaiso (50.0)HorzH65-70L0%0.0
2-4Oakland (155.0)HorzH77-91L0%0.0
2-8Detroit (205.0)HorzA73-83W100%0.0
2-12Wright St. (264.0)HorzA75-79W100%0.0
2-15Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA67-59L0%0.0
2-19Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH60-71L0%0.0
2-22Oakland (155.0)HorzA81-56L0%0.0
2-26Green Bay (54.0)HorzH67-72L0%0.0
2-28Wright St. (264.0)HorzH61-46W100%0.0
3-3Wright St. (264.0)HorzH60-57W100%0.0
3-6Oakland (155.0)HorzN69-72W100%0.0
3-7Green Bay (54.0)HorzN70-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz26.5726.5722.9722.97-14.36-14.36
Green BayHorz5.595.5970.3770.372.282.28
OaklandHorz5.535.5344.4444.44-0.61-0.61
Wright St.Horz5.535.5334.6234.62-1.70-1.70
DetroitHorz4.164.1641.3841.38-0.72-0.72
Cleveland St.Horz4.164.1650.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz4.154.1582.1482.142.672.67
Youngstown St.Horz4.104.1025.9325.93-1.97-1.97
MilwaukeeHorz4.044.0438.4638.46-0.93-0.93
Southern IllinoisMVC1.711.7132.2632.26-0.61-0.61
Kent St.MAC1.691.6963.3363.330.450.45
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.691.6955.1755.170.170.17
BradleyMVC1.661.6622.5822.58-0.91-0.91
UCFAmer1.661.6639.2939.29-0.36-0.36
DePaulBE1.621.6235.4835.48-0.47-0.47
SMUAmer1.621.6280.6580.650.990.99
Western IllinoisSum1.611.6124.0024.00-0.84-0.84
YaleIvy1.611.6165.5265.520.500.50
DaytonA101.561.5675.0075.000.780.78
Grand CanyonWAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB101.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Tennessee MartinOVC1.561.5655.5655.560.170.17
DrakeMVC0.330.3326.6726.67-0.15-0.15
EvansvilleMVC0.310.3160.0060.000.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.260.2617.2417.24-0.17-0.17
Bowling GreenMAC0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
Illinois St.MVC0.260.2662.5062.500.060.06
Georgia St.SB0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
ToledoMAC0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.220.2290.9190.910.180.18
Wichita St.MVC0.220.2287.1087.100.170.17
Morehead St.OVC0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
WisconsinB100.180.1891.1891.180.150.15
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
UMKCWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1571.4371.430.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1558.8258.820.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1438.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
TempleAmer0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
MichiganB100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
HarvardIvy0.110.1174.0774.070.050.05
George MasonA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
UC IrvineBW0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0970.0070.000.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0218.7518.75-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00