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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:249.0
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:263
Current SOS:263
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:283
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18249.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Francisco (94.0)WCCA82-80L0%0.0
11-16UTSA (264.0)CUSAH86-78W100%0.0
11-23Elon (161.0)CAAN80-91L0%0.0
11-25Cal Poly (297.0)BWN84-71W100%0.0
11-26Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA92-81L0%0.0
11-30Chicago St. (318.0)WACH74-58W100%0.0
12-4Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH76-90L0%0.0
12-10Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA73-69L0%0.0
12-14DePaul (239.0)BEA75-80W100%0.0
12-17Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH75-81L0%0.0
12-20Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH75-65W100%0.0
12-30Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH59-70L0%0.0
1-6Detroit (289.0)HorzH78-64W100%0.0
1-8Oakland (109.0)HorzH57-58L0%0.0
1-12Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA54-59W100%0.0
1-14Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA89-92W100%0.0
1-17Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH71-57W100%0.0
1-22Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA96-65L0%0.0
1-27Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH62-79L0%0.0
1-29Wright St. (115.0)HorzH86-88L0%0.0
2-2Green Bay (157.0)HorzA84-80L0%0.0
2-4Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA100-105W100%0.0
2-9Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH84-81W100%0.0
2-11Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH63-66L0%0.0
2-17Detroit (289.0)HorzA69-74W100%0.0
2-19Oakland (109.0)HorzA87-75L0%0.0
2-21Green Bay (157.0)HorzH79-87L0%0.0
2-24Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA90-82L0%0.0
2-26Wright St. (115.0)HorzA87-49L0%0.0
3-5Green Bay (157.0)HorzN70-79W100%0.0
3-6Milwaukee (256.0)HorzN68-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz26.5026.5041.1841.18-4.68-4.68
MilwaukeeHorz5.955.9529.0329.03-2.50-2.50
Green BayHorz5.725.7253.8553.850.440.44
Northern KentuckyHorz4.384.3866.6766.671.461.46
Youngstown St.Horz4.334.3336.6736.67-1.15-1.15
ValparaisoHorz4.274.2772.4172.411.911.91
OaklandHorz4.244.2471.4371.431.821.82
Wright St.Horz4.244.2457.1457.140.610.61
DetroitHorz4.234.2325.0025.00-2.12-2.12
Cleveland St.Horz4.214.2125.0025.00-2.11-2.11
Chicago St.WAC1.801.8010.7110.71-1.41-1.41
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.741.7451.7251.720.060.06
Cal PolyBW1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
DePaulBE1.711.7129.0329.03-0.72-0.72
Grand CanyonWAC1.701.7067.8667.860.610.61
ElonCAA1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.661.6642.3142.31-0.26-0.26
UTSACUSA1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Northern ArizonaBSky1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
San FranciscoWCC1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
ToledoMAC0.320.3250.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1623.0823.08-0.09-0.09
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1612.9012.90-0.12-0.12
FIUCUSA0.160.1617.2417.24-0.10-0.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.150.1577.7877.780.090.09
OhioMAC0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.110.1185.2985.290.070.07
North DakotaBSky0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00