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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Illinois Chicago

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:285.4
Current RPI:253
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:153
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:300
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12128.50.02%
16-13160.50.19%
15-14172.30.42%
14-15193.11.59%
13-16214.23.33%
12-17236.57.38%
11-18257.412.30%
10-19275.616.38%
9-20291.318.39%
8-21305.616.87%
7-22316.812.02%
6-23327.06.89%
5-24334.12.98%
4-25339.70.96%
3-26342.90.24%
2-27350.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14DePaul (179.8)BEA72-71L0%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (317.4)SumH67-64W100%0.0
11-21Yale (74.8)IvyN70-58L0%0.0
11-22Kent St. (99.7)MACA78-60L0%0.0
11-23Southern Illinois (197.4)MVCN60-67L0%0.0
11-29Dayton (52.1)A10A0-06%-19.0
12-2Grand Canyon (272.6)WACH0-060%3.1
12-6Loyola Chicago (215.1)MVCH0-054%1.2
12-11UCF (187.3)AmerH0-044%-1.8
12-15Tennessee Martin (276.9)OVCH0-068%5.6
12-17SMU (36.8)AmerA0-04%-20.5
12-22Northwestern (159.1)B10A0-020%-10.2
12-28Bradley (253.4)MVCA0-038%-3.7
1-2Youngstown St. (256.3)HorzH0-057%2.2
1-4Cleveland St. (169.8)HorzH0-041%-2.7
1-8Valparaiso (174.1)HorzA0-020%-9.9
1-14Detroit (108.1)HorzH0-031%-6.1
1-20Green Bay (83.4)HorzA0-010%-15.6
1-24Youngstown St. (256.3)HorzA0-034%-5.0
1-29Milwaukee (244.9)HorzA0-030%-6.3
1-31Valparaiso (174.1)HorzH0-041%-2.7
2-4Oakland (249.1)HorzH0-055%1.5
2-8Detroit (108.1)HorzA0-013%-13.3
2-12Wright St. (131.8)HorzA0-018%-11.1
2-15Cleveland St. (169.8)HorzA0-021%-9.9
2-19Milwaukee (244.9)HorzH0-053%0.9
2-22Oakland (249.1)HorzA0-032%-5.7
2-26Green Bay (83.4)HorzH0-024%-8.4
2-28Wright St. (131.8)HorzH0-037%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois ChicagoHorz32.2526.3815.7929.43-22.07-10.86
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.3533.3343.75-0.00-0.54
DetroitHorz0.004.3560.0057.840.000.68
Youngstown St.Horz1.254.3440.0037.05-0.25-1.12
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.3425.0035.82-0.00-1.23
OaklandHorz0.004.3220.0027.37-0.00-1.95
ValparaisoHorz0.004.3175.0054.230.000.36
Wright St.Horz0.004.3166.6755.580.000.48
Green BayHorz0.004.3066.6768.630.001.60
Southern IllinoisMVC12.501.9125.0045.28-6.25-0.18
Kent St.MAC12.251.8866.6763.484.080.51
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.8750.0040.920.00-0.34
BradleyMVC0.001.8550.0028.840.00-0.78
UCFAmer0.001.84100.0048.630.00-0.05
DePaulBE10.001.79100.0033.9410.00-0.57
SMUAmer0.001.7940.0065.51-0.000.55
Western IllinoisSum10.001.7833.3326.57-3.33-0.84
YaleIvy12.251.7866.6764.374.080.51
DaytonA100.001.7275.0070.900.000.72
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.7240.0047.58-0.00-0.08
NorthwesternB100.001.72100.0042.700.00-0.25
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.7266.6741.910.00-0.28
DrakeMVC2.500.3425.0027.00-1.25-0.16
EvansvilleMVC0.000.3166.6762.900.000.08
Illinois St.MVC0.000.3150.0065.470.000.09
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.27100.0062.250.000.07
Chicago St.WAC0.000.240.0019.97-0.00-0.15
Wichita St.MVC0.000.24100.0083.950.000.16
ToledoMAC0.000.2440.0060.63-0.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.190.0038.43-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.1950.0067.050.000.07
WisconsinB100.000.19100.0084.260.000.13
MemphisAmer0.000.1950.0067.350.000.06
UMKCWAC0.000.1825.0046.58-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1875.0044.920.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1850.0051.850.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.18100.0073.990.000.09
Central MichiganMAC0.000.18100.0053.790.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1875.0054.260.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1825.0050.46-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.18100.0051.400.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1850.0030.040.00-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1620.0053.43-0.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1633.3333.84-0.00-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.160.0032.89-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.1675.0071.930.000.07
Murray St.OVC0.000.1533.3368.48-0.000.06
Michigan St.B100.000.1575.0072.430.000.07
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1575.0070.310.000.06
MichiganB100.000.1575.0066.400.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.1340.0031.23-0.00-0.05
IPFWSum0.000.1366.6761.780.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1325.0036.61-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.120.0034.82-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1266.6738.430.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.12100.0081.020.000.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3340.07-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1233.3346.41-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0059.140.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1266.6760.350.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0049.930.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0058.780.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1266.6753.920.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1050.0046.130.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1066.6751.550.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0066.000.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0060.830.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0925.0020.71-0.00-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0032.36-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0925.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0030.80-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0925.0043.52-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0966.6754.040.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0925.0031.38-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0950.0037.650.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0914.2929.93-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.30-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0960.0056.280.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0920.0022.51-0.00-0.05
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0074.680.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0975.0067.070.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0975.0059.380.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC1.000.090.0025.13-1.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0975.0064.660.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0966.6774.280.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0069.080.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0030.140.00-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.0920.0038.78-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0980.0058.080.000.01
MarylandB100.000.09100.0072.100.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0060.980.000.02
VCUA100.000.0980.0073.820.000.04
Saint LouisA101.000.0975.0047.410.50-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0766.6766.590.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0049.860.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3353.25-0.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0081.280.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.250.070.0028.11-1.25-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0035.490.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0051.72-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0633.3351.32-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.110.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.76-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0625.0033.31-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6754.260.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6757.980.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0043.100.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.770.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.060.0017.58-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.72-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0050.900.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.01-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0053.250.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.32-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.970.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0075.900.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.250.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0052.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0064.500.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3336.17-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.560.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.25-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.890.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.780.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0067.55-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0072.230.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0044.550.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.600.000.00
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.180.000.02
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0650.0050.280.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0039.42-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6763.740.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.07-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.15-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.620.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.030.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6750.600.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0078.020.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6772.650.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0055.470.000.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.74-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.350.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.710.000.02
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.290.000.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.940.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0066.91-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0333.3348.77-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC1.250.0333.3330.38-0.42-0.01
William & MaryCAA1.250.0375.0056.430.620.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0034.32-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.52-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.61-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6744.670.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3328.79-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0039.52-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0057.210.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.66-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0057.870.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3349.98-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.26-0.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3361.54-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0055.150.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0059.500.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0375.0073.980.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6771.550.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.34-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0085.190.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.980.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.60-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0053.250.000.00
KansasB120.000.0366.6760.800.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.550.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0065.570.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0037.60-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0035.78-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0053.310.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0021.79-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0320.0028.08-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6744.530.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC1.250.0350.0055.650.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0333.3333.44-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0380.0070.420.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.95-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0029.35-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0057.70-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.10-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.72-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0055.20-0.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.45-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6759.490.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.730.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0017.79-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0383.3348.030.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0380.0067.040.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.740.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.400.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01