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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UNC Wilmington

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:27.0
Current RPI:27
Expected SOS:120
Current SOS:120
Current Record:27-5
Expected Record:27-5
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:76



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-527.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Wilmington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA69-78W100%0.0
11-20East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH68-59W100%0.0
11-25Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAN68-63L0%0.0
11-26Evansville (188.0)MVCN62-65W100%0.0
11-27Toledo (155.0)MACN102-77W100%0.0
11-30Western Michigan (173.0)MACA92-97W100%0.0
12-10St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A80-81W100%0.0
12-14Campbell (246.0)BSthA75-96W100%0.0
12-17Radford (227.0)BSthH100-64W100%0.0
12-20East Carolina (213.0)AmerH81-71W100%0.0
12-28Clemson (69.0)ACCA87-73L0%0.0
12-31Towson (88.0)CAAA67-76W100%0.0
1-2Elon (161.0)CAAH79-63W100%0.0
1-5Drexel (308.0)CAAA72-90W100%0.0
1-7Delaware (235.0)CAAA81-91W100%0.0
1-12William & Mary (110.0)CAAH101-77W100%0.0
1-14Hofstra (196.0)CAAH84-76W100%0.0
1-19College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA59-65W100%0.0
1-21Drexel (308.0)CAAH87-74W100%0.0
1-26James Madison (255.0)CAAA76-87W100%0.0
1-28William & Mary (110.0)CAAA96-78L0%0.0
2-2College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH66-67L0%0.0
2-4Delaware (235.0)CAAH108-80W100%0.0
2-9James Madison (255.0)CAAH88-73W100%0.0
2-11Elon (161.0)CAAA77-76L0%0.0
2-16Northeastern (136.0)CAAA65-66W100%0.0
2-18Hofstra (196.0)CAAA76-83W100%0.0
2-23Towson (88.0)CAAH83-78W100%0.0
2-25Northeastern (136.0)CAAH74-65W100%0.0
3-4Delaware (235.0)CAAN91-82W100%0.0
3-5William & Mary (110.0)CAAN105-94W100%0.0
3-6College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA69-78W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Wilmington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNC Wilmington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNC Wilmington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNC WilmingtonCAA26.5626.5686.7186.7119.5019.50
College of CharlestonCAA5.725.7276.6776.673.053.05
DelawareCAA5.645.6439.2939.29-1.21-1.21
William & MaryCAA5.635.6353.8553.850.430.43
James MadisonCAA4.234.2330.0030.00-1.69-1.69
TowsonCAA4.214.2163.3363.331.121.12
ElonCAA4.184.1853.5753.570.300.30
HofstraCAA4.184.1848.2848.28-0.14-0.14
DrexelCAA4.134.1327.5927.59-1.85-1.85
NortheasternCAA4.134.1351.7251.720.140.14
RadfordBSth1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
ToledoMAC1.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
Western MichiganMAC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.641.6487.5087.501.231.23
East CarolinaAmer1.631.6346.8846.88-0.10-0.10
St. BonaventureA101.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
EvansvilleMVC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
ClemsonACC1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC1.561.5680.6580.650.960.96
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
PresbyterianBSth0.230.2310.7110.71-0.18-0.18
LibertyBSth0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
DukeACC0.180.1877.1477.140.100.10
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1870.0070.000.070.07
High PointBSth0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.180.1823.3323.33-0.09-0.09
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
The CitadelSC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
IonaMAAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
George MasonA100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
DavidsonA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
VMISC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
FIUCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
SamfordSC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
YaleIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
StetsonASun0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00