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Through games of Jan 19, 2017.


UNC Wilmington

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:28.3
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:139
Current SOS:112
Current Record:16-2
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:7-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:27
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-220.59.63%
26-323.726.00%
25-427.430.78%
24-531.921.24%
23-638.19.46%
22-746.62.47%
21-855.70.39%
20-964.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Wilmington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Kentucky (263.1)OVCA69-78W100%0.0
11-20East Tennessee St. (85.2)SCH68-59W100%0.0
11-25Middle Tennessee (39.1)CUSAN68-63L0%0.0
11-26Evansville (197.4)MVCN62-65W100%0.0
11-27Toledo (133.1)MACN102-77W100%0.0
11-30Western Michigan (210.0)MACA92-97W100%0.0
12-10St. Bonaventure (92.8)A10A80-81W100%0.0
12-14Campbell (271.9)BSthA75-96W100%0.0
12-17Radford (201.8)BSthH100-64W100%0.0
12-20East Carolina (236.4)AmerH81-71W100%0.0
12-28Clemson (47.9)ACCA87-73L0%0.0
12-31Towson (127.4)CAAA67-76W100%0.0
1-2Elon (161.8)CAAH79-63W100%0.0
1-5Drexel (249.5)CAAA72-90W100%0.0
1-7Delaware (267.6)CAAA81-91W100%0.0
1-12William & Mary (145.9)CAAH101-77W100%0.0
1-14Hofstra (201.1)CAAH84-76W100%0.0
1-19College of Charleston (77.3)CAAA59-65W100%0.0
1-21Drexel (249.5)CAAH0-094%17.8
1-26James Madison (252.5)CAAA0-083%10.7
1-28William & Mary (145.9)CAAA0-075%7.7
2-2College of Charleston (77.3)CAAH0-079%8.8
2-4Delaware (267.6)CAAH0-097%20.3
2-9James Madison (252.5)CAAH0-094%16.9
2-11Elon (161.8)CAAA0-069%5.6
2-16Northeastern (92.4)CAAA0-062%3.4
2-18Hofstra (201.1)CAAA0-077%8.1
2-23Towson (127.4)CAAH0-085%11.4
2-25Northeastern (92.4)CAAH0-080%9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Wilmington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNC Wilmington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNC Wilmington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNC WilmingtonCAA26.4226.3991.3088.0621.8220.09
James MadisonCAA0.554.4326.3230.84-0.26-1.70
HofstraCAA3.254.4344.4445.76-0.36-0.38
College of CharlestonCAA3.244.4377.7873.901.802.12
ElonCAA3.254.4252.9454.000.190.35
NortheasternCAA0.474.4063.1661.710.121.03
TowsonCAA3.084.4055.5657.960.340.70
DelawareCAA3.074.3935.2933.10-0.90-1.48
DrexelCAA2.934.3335.2935.99-0.86-1.21
William & MaryCAA3.004.3250.0050.490.000.04
ToledoMAC3.101.8756.2554.670.390.17
RadfordBSth2.851.8543.7546.48-0.36-0.13
Western MichiganMAC2.861.8433.3338.17-0.95-0.44
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.021.8182.3582.561.951.18
CampbellBSth2.781.7946.6744.23-0.19-0.21
East CarolinaAmer2.851.7850.0042.890.00-0.25
EvansvilleMVC2.941.7847.0645.15-0.17-0.17
St. BonaventureA102.851.7870.5965.051.170.54
ClemsonACC2.781.7258.8257.820.490.27
East Tennessee St.SC2.781.7275.0076.341.390.91
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.781.7233.3333.73-0.93-0.56
PresbyterianBSth0.330.2212.5013.06-0.25-0.16
High PointBSth0.240.2137.5042.28-0.06-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.250.2156.2551.890.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.170.2161.1162.270.040.05
LibertyBSth0.260.1947.0651.37-0.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1861.1169.290.040.07
LongwoodBSth0.170.1825.0023.84-0.08-0.10
BradleyMVC0.230.1836.8433.57-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.1860.0053.420.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.230.1735.2928.99-0.07-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1743.7543.70-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.150.1755.5654.400.020.02
DukeACC0.170.1577.7873.840.090.07
LouisvilleACC0.320.1584.2179.260.220.09
The CitadelSC0.240.1533.3328.99-0.08-0.06
La SalleA100.150.1568.7564.060.060.04
MercerSC0.310.1533.3343.05-0.10-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.1564.7156.070.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.230.1561.1155.580.050.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1547.0646.28-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.1447.0648.06-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.150.1464.7156.510.040.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1320.0030.55-0.10-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1341.1849.24-0.03-0.00
WinthropBSth0.170.1375.0075.420.080.06
VMISC0.250.1213.3315.25-0.18-0.08
AkronMAC0.170.1282.3575.940.110.06
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1222.2227.16-0.09-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1235.2941.50-0.05-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.160.1237.5034.51-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.240.1262.5063.130.060.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1235.2935.21-0.05-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.1257.1458.890.010.02
FIUCUSA0.150.1211.7621.42-0.12-0.07
IonaMAAC0.150.1257.8962.450.020.03
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1223.5321.81-0.08-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.230.1255.5660.050.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1150.0053.040.000.01
DavidsonA100.150.1152.9453.550.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.1120.0026.46-0.04-0.05
UMBCAE0.070.1162.5058.830.020.02
VermontAE0.070.1175.0077.350.040.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1135.2941.78-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.150.1177.7867.010.080.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1025.0031.86-0.09-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.1064.7167.080.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.170.0926.6740.15-0.08-0.02
SamfordSC0.090.0964.7160.060.030.02
StetsonASun0.240.0929.4130.30-0.10-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.0937.5044.51-0.04-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.160.0952.9451.320.010.00
BelmontOVC0.150.0975.0074.450.080.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0961.1159.640.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.230.0950.0055.790.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.150.0926.3227.67-0.07-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.150.0925.0029.15-0.08-0.04
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6767.530.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.0958.8261.440.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.160.0937.5045.00-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.160.0976.4776.940.080.05
OaklandHorz0.090.0970.5972.910.040.04
VillanovaBE0.160.0994.7489.260.140.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0947.3745.09-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.150.0936.8436.64-0.04-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0947.3734.50-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0958.8264.790.010.03
RichmondA100.080.0961.1157.870.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.0922.2225.61-0.08-0.04
SienaMAAC0.150.0940.0045.17-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.160.0684.2180.590.110.04
Cal PolyBW0.080.0618.7527.05-0.05-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0675.0074.850.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0617.6529.61-0.05-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0629.4127.72-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.080.0652.9458.350.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0652.6348.220.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.080.0630.0028.55-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0652.9450.970.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0677.7878.450.040.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3335.89-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0652.6352.910.000.00
LafayettePat0.080.0629.4123.73-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0631.5829.25-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0663.1659.600.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0673.6874.190.040.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.0618.7535.74-0.09-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0635.2939.23-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0658.8257.800.010.01
PennIvy0.080.0642.8647.99-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0638.8939.34-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0657.8952.980.010.00
RutgersB100.080.0655.5642.910.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0655.5656.720.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0666.6758.210.030.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0652.6347.710.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0631.5833.34-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0670.5964.080.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0678.9582.980.040.04
WoffordSC0.000.0631.2540.50-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.080.0657.1465.320.010.02
DetroitHorz0.160.0617.6524.19-0.11-0.03
FordhamA100.160.0638.8935.26-0.04-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.150.0653.3355.960.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0618.7524.06-0.05-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0628.5731.50-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0643.7543.72-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0620.0024.58-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0647.3741.49-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0641.1846.85-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0689.4779.540.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0661.1147.030.02-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0658.3361.520.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0663.1660.770.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0662.5062.700.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0647.0646.22-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.070.0652.9438.790.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0620.0020.93-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.070.0688.8973.850.060.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0663.1660.380.020.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0663.1657.640.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3340.47-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0644.4446.62-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0684.2178.670.050.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0635.0039.73-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0627.7824.33-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.280.000.02
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.310.020.02
VCUA100.080.0673.6870.630.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0677.7862.530.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0646.1546.12-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0688.8987.510.060.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0640.0040.82-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0655.0054.820.010.01
VirginiaACC0.150.0682.3576.310.100.03
HoustonAmer0.070.0668.4268.050.030.02
SMUAmer0.070.0680.0077.810.040.03
TempleAmer0.070.0650.0053.120.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0622.2220.61-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0658.8251.180.000.00
ColgatePat0.090.0321.0527.28-0.05-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0352.9450.570.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0362.5060.090.020.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0383.3380.700.050.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.036.2511.89-0.08-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0321.4336.54-0.04-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0366.6755.390.020.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0321.0528.90-0.05-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0327.7834.29-0.04-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0341.1846.17-0.01-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0312.5022.05-0.05-0.02
IUPUISum0.070.0338.8943.17-0.02-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0352.9450.560.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0322.2227.20-0.05-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0370.5958.260.030.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0322.2223.85-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0331.5833.42-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0331.5835.66-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0347.0648.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0357.8957.530.000.00
Texas TechB120.070.0377.7865.340.040.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0352.6360.230.000.01
UCLAP120.090.0395.0089.680.080.02
WashingtonP120.090.0350.0043.410.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.080.0364.7157.690.020.00
ArmyPat0.080.0338.8942.65-0.02-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0363.1663.580.020.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0377.7874.910.040.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0352.6348.070.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0364.7158.500.020.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0356.2554.790.010.00
Little RockSB0.080.0356.2551.110.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0364.7169.700.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0370.5960.550.000.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0361.1155.020.020.00
NebraskaB100.080.0347.0641.69-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0368.4252.190.000.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0384.2176.530.050.02
OklahomaB120.080.0347.0641.22-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0322.2221.18-0.04-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0363.1651.640.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0343.7541.37-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0382.3574.990.050.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0314.2929.28-0.06-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0352.9455.040.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0022.33-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0335.2944.15-0.02-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0357.8952.530.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0343.7538.29-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0344.4442.61-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0358.8254.930.010.00
XavierBE0.080.0372.2267.680.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0333.3330.18-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0341.1837.56-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0388.8986.530.060.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0312.5019.99-0.05-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0325.0029.54-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0373.6867.210.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.030.0014.44-0.07-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0360.0072.810.010.01