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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UNC Wilmington

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:262.5
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:133
Current SOS:147
Current Record:4-14
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-5
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:320
Expected OOC SOS:157



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15173.00.05%
12-16193.30.41%
11-17210.12.61%
10-18226.27.50%
9-19241.917.26%
8-20257.725.16%
7-21272.825.22%
6-22288.415.70%
5-23302.05.18%
4-24313.80.90%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Wilmington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Davidson (82.8)A10A108-81L0%0.0
11-18Campbell (266.8)BSthH88-84W100%0.0
11-24Loyola Chicago (58.2)MVCN102-78L0%0.0
11-25Valparaiso (151.6)MVCN79-70L0%0.0
11-30East Carolina (280.0)AmerA93-88L0%0.0
12-10LSU (102.0)SECA97-84L0%0.0
12-13UNC Greensboro (118.0)SCA71-58L0%0.0
12-17Furman (88.2)SCH84-90L0%0.0
12-21North Dakota St. (167.6)SumN100-63L0%0.0
12-22Howard (334.0)MEACN80-75L0%0.0
12-30Delaware (225.4)CAAH56-58L0%0.0
1-2Drexel (271.3)CAAH107-87W100%0.0
1-5Towson (89.7)CAAA89-71L0%0.0
1-7Delaware (225.4)CAAA96-76L0%0.0
1-11Elon (143.6)CAAA78-80W100%0.0
1-13Northeastern (80.1)CAAH77-81L0%0.0
1-18College of Charleston (108.4)CAAA80-76L0%0.0
1-20Towson (89.7)CAAH73-71W100%0.0
1-25James Madison (278.4)CAAH0-060%2.9
1-27William & Mary (93.5)CAAH0-044%-1.6
2-1Hofstra (105.6)CAAA0-019%-9.6
2-3Northeastern (80.1)CAAA0-015%-11.3
2-8James Madison (278.4)CAAA0-038%-3.5
2-10Hofstra (105.6)CAAH0-039%-3.2
2-15Elon (143.6)CAAH0-048%-0.4
2-17College of Charleston (108.4)CAAH0-034%-4.4
2-22William & Mary (93.5)CAAA0-023%-8.1
2-24Drexel (271.3)CAAA0-043%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Wilmington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNC Wilmington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNC Wilmington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNC WilmingtonCAA26.6526.4320.5126.10-15.72-12.63
ElonCAA3.314.6255.5652.960.370.27
DelawareCAA5.864.5941.1838.78-1.03-1.03
NortheasternCAA3.154.5961.1161.060.701.02
DrexelCAA3.224.5731.5831.16-1.19-1.72
James MadisonCAA0.434.5725.0026.62-0.22-2.14
HofstraCAA0.594.5657.8958.640.090.79
TowsonCAA5.854.5664.7167.161.721.57
College of CharlestonCAA3.434.5664.7164.321.011.30
William & MaryCAA0.514.5564.7159.510.150.87
FurmanSC2.921.9764.7167.420.860.69
UNC GreensboroSC3.001.9766.6766.411.000.65
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.851.8577.7873.281.580.86
ValparaisoMVC2.851.8544.4446.94-0.32-0.11
East CarolinaAmer2.861.8238.8930.04-0.64-0.73
CampbellBSth2.851.8250.0049.230.00-0.03
DavidsonA102.781.7956.2560.070.350.36
HowardMEAC2.781.795.5623.56-2.47-0.94
LSUSEC2.781.7958.8251.580.490.06
North Dakota St.Sum2.781.7941.1848.40-0.49-0.06
RadfordBSth0.230.2257.8958.880.040.04
The CitadelSC0.250.2218.7518.37-0.15-0.14
SamfordSC0.300.2227.7832.67-0.13-0.08
High PointBSth0.160.2043.7549.22-0.02-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.370.1970.0068.290.150.07
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1938.8935.38-0.04-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1978.9576.770.080.10
CharlotteCUSA0.230.1823.5325.63-0.12-0.09
MercerSC0.230.1844.4454.87-0.030.02
BradleyMVC0.290.1865.0057.890.090.03
Indiana St.MVC0.220.1844.4446.03-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.140.1855.0048.980.01-0.00
RichmondA100.230.1831.5834.35-0.08-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.310.1616.6716.15-0.21-0.11
George MasonA100.080.1645.0041.29-0.01-0.03
VMISC0.250.1625.0024.14-0.12-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.290.1635.0026.13-0.09-0.07
La SalleA100.220.1540.0042.69-0.04-0.02
HoustonAmer0.220.1578.9573.000.130.07
LibertyBSth0.160.1350.0054.180.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.1352.6358.610.010.02
Ohio St.B100.070.1381.8276.870.050.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.1326.3230.45-0.11-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.080.1322.2228.57-0.04-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1377.7879.160.090.07
Rhode IslandA100.080.1383.3381.450.050.08
SienaMAAC0.080.1328.5729.93-0.03-0.05
WoffordSC0.160.1368.7563.660.060.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.220.120.008.42-0.22-0.10
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1250.0053.280.000.01
CornellIvy0.220.1233.3333.23-0.07-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.070.1252.6347.500.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.1247.3746.09-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.220.1244.4444.91-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1250.0050.860.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1244.4450.08-0.020.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1255.0052.480.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.150.1266.6768.750.050.05
FIUCUSA0.070.1235.2935.54-0.02-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.220.1222.2228.66-0.12-0.05
RiderMAAC0.070.1265.0065.330.020.04
FloridaSEC0.070.1273.6871.600.030.05
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1027.7827.11-0.07-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.1031.5836.43-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1025.0031.44-0.08-0.04
UCFAmer0.070.1068.4260.830.030.02
WinthropBSth0.160.1050.0059.430.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1010.0019.62-0.12-0.06
Wichita St.Amer0.150.0978.9577.380.090.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.0943.7549.11-0.02-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.0933.3340.35-0.05-0.02
PennIvy0.220.0964.7162.690.060.02
George WashingtonA100.150.0945.0043.49-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0958.8249.740.03-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0947.3750.940.000.00
DukeACC0.150.0989.4785.240.120.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.0945.0047.06-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.150.0945.0045.47-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0989.4776.990.000.05
MemphisAmer0.080.0965.0058.540.020.02
Notre DameACC0.220.0963.1661.000.060.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0931.5836.23-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0952.6351.740.000.00
DenverSum0.080.0733.3336.47-0.03-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0752.6351.680.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0738.8940.78-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0725.0043.180.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0768.4263.610.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0725.0028.020.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.0729.4134.78-0.06-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0730.0032.54-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0773.6872.400.040.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0772.2272.970.030.03
StetsonASun0.160.0733.3336.93-0.05-0.02
TCUB120.000.0775.0067.830.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0742.8635.220.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.150.0633.3334.10-0.05-0.02
Saint LouisA100.160.0647.3746.93-0.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.080.0623.5328.20-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0627.7838.12-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0615.0020.280.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0647.0654.68-0.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0672.2258.880.030.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.0680.0078.870.090.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.069.5217.86-0.06-0.04
HawaiiBW0.150.0668.7564.010.060.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0617.6534.76-0.05-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5657.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.170.0694.7486.110.150.05
ArmyPat0.000.0661.1160.440.000.01
BucknellPat0.070.0661.9068.000.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.150.0672.2274.940.060.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.0629.4133.20-0.06-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0661.9063.170.020.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.180.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.380.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.0637.5037.67-0.04-0.02
FordhamA100.080.0631.5829.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.0666.6765.390.050.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0637.5046.70-0.02-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0616.6724.900.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0627.7841.030.00-0.01
NavyPat0.150.0660.0055.160.030.01
OaklandHorz0.150.0661.9065.150.030.02
PittsburghACC0.150.0640.0030.88-0.03-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0070.610.000.03
StanfordP120.070.0655.0050.330.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0636.8445.190.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0663.1657.870.000.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0655.0053.330.010.00
UMBCAE0.150.0655.5655.550.020.01
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.870.040.03
VillanovaBE0.000.0694.7490.310.000.05
YaleIvy0.150.0641.1847.61-0.03-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0672.2268.930.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0668.4259.020.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0668.4264.160.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0666.6755.900.030.01
LafayettePat0.070.0622.2227.46-0.04-0.03
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.58-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0666.6773.220.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0635.0031.82-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0668.4263.970.030.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0641.1839.660.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.58-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0656.2557.430.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0352.9452.670.000.00
ArizonaP120.080.0380.0078.940.050.02
Penn St.B100.080.0361.9055.820.020.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0370.5969.630.030.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.300.030.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0325.0026.03-0.04-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.08-0.03-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.500.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6747.00-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.080.030.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.050.02
IndianaB100.070.0360.0052.880.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.210.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0365.0056.350.030.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0347.0644.92-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.710.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.980.040.02
ButlerBE0.080.0366.6763.070.030.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.060.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.33-0.04-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.090.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.03-0.02-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.26-0.07-0.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0385.7182.120.060.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0333.3340.10-0.03-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0383.3384.250.050.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0376.1972.570.040.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
PurdueB100.070.0390.4888.390.060.02
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.650.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0333.3332.96-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.75-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0357.8953.220.010.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.84-0.05-0.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.76-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.710.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0317.6527.34-0.05-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6868.040.040.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0368.4260.530.030.01
MichiganB100.080.0376.1970.800.040.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.150.000.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.48-0.04-0.01