Texas El Paso

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	147.0
Current RPI:	147
Expected SOS:	80
Current SOS:	80
Current Record:	15-17
Expected Record:	15-17
Current Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	125
Expected OOC SOS:	44

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-17	147.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas El Paso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	H	64-73	L	0%
11-13	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	H	52-41	W	100%
11-19	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	A	89-73	L	0%
11-26	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	H	35-53	L	0%
11-29	Oregon (67.0)	P12	A	64-59	L	0%
12-11	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	H	73-69	W	100%
12-14	Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)	MWC	A	65-54	L	0%
12-17	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	H	87-57	W	100%
12-19	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	H	69-54	W	100%
12-22	Clemson (151.0)	ACC	N	48-61	W	100%
12-23	Kansas St. (45.0)	B12	N	78-70	L	0%
12-25	Auburn (145.0)	SEC	N	83-76	W	100%
12-28	Colorado St. (29.0)	MWC	H	53-56	L	0%
12-29	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	H	79-58	W	100%
1-4	Marshall (43.0)	CUSA	A	76-60	L	0%
1-7	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	H	70-50	W	100%
1-11	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	A	59-48	L	0%
1-14	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	H	70-64	W	100%
1-18	East Carolina (164.0)	CUSA	H	70-56	W	100%
1-21	Tulane (250.0)	CUSA	A	66-58	L	0%
1-28	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	81-76	L	0%
2-1	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	A	77-75	L	0%
2-4	UAB (112.0)	CUSA	H	60-61	L	0%
2-8	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	H	64-55	W	100%
2-11	Tulane (250.0)	CUSA	H	54-52	W	100%
2-18	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	A	58-60	W	100%
2-22	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	H	76-68	W	100%
2-25	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	A	63-45	L	0%
2-29	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	H	61-68	L	0%
3-3	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	A	57-48	L	0%
3-7	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	N	67-62	W	100%
3-8	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	A	65-47	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas El Paso's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas El Paso's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas El Paso.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas El Paso	CUSA	26.29	26.29	42.97	42.97	-3.70	-3.70
Houston	CUSA	5.31	5.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	3.85	3.85	35.71	35.71	-1.10	-1.10
Rice	CUSA	3.83	3.83	44.44	44.44	-0.43	-0.43
Tulane	CUSA	3.83	3.83	44.44	44.44	-0.43	-0.43
Tulsa	CUSA	3.81	3.81	55.17	55.17	0.39	0.39
Memphis	CUSA	3.72	3.72	78.12	78.12	2.09	2.09
New Mexico St.	WAC	3.25	3.25	74.19	74.19	1.57	1.57
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.35	2.35	76.67	76.67	1.26	1.26
Marshall	CUSA	2.33	2.33	59.38	59.38	0.44	0.44
UAB	CUSA	2.23	2.23	46.67	46.67	-0.15	-0.15
East Carolina	CUSA	2.22	2.22	42.31	42.31	-0.34	-0.34
Central Florida	CUSA	2.22	2.22	65.52	65.52	0.69	0.69
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	1.81	1.81	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Southern	SWAC	1.76	1.76	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.74	1.74	34.38	34.38	-0.54	-0.54
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.74	1.74	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	1.71	1.71	62.07	62.07	0.41	0.41
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.67	1.67	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.61	1.61	74.19	74.19	0.78	0.78
Auburn	SEC	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	1.59	1.59	70.00	70.00	0.64	0.64
UC Riverside	BW	1.59	1.59	42.86	42.86	-0.23	-0.23
Clemson	ACC	1.56	1.56	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Kansas St.	B12	1.56	1.56	66.67	66.67	0.52	0.52
Texas Christian	MWC	0.36	0.36	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.30	0.30	34.62	34.62	-0.09	-0.09
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.27	0.27	20.00	20.00	-0.16	-0.16
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.25	0.25	20.00	20.00	-0.15	-0.15
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.25	0.25	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.22	0.22	81.25	81.25	0.14	0.14
Hawaii	WAC	0.22	0.22	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.22	0.22	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.21	0.21	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.19	0.19	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.19	0.19	34.62	34.62	-0.06	-0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.18	0.18	14.29	14.29	-0.13	-0.13
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.18	0.18	19.23	19.23	-0.11	-0.11
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M	B12	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada	WAC	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.12	0.12	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
California	P12	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	83.87	83.87	0.07	0.07
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	96.43	96.43	0.09	0.09
Idaho	WAC	0.09	0.09	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	18.75	18.75	-0.05	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01