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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Tennessee St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:300.0
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:134
Current Record:4-25
Expected Record:4-25
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-8
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:300
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-25300.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Hawaii (160.0)BWA85-55L0%0.0
11-9New Mexico St. (72.0)WACN55-70L0%0.0
11-11Western Michigan (66.0)MACN63-52L0%0.0
11-16Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA85-71L0%0.0
11-18Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH70-75L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee (42.0)SECA88-67L0%0.0
11-26Auburn (169.0)SECA78-73L0%0.0
11-30USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA73-64L0%0.0
12-3Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH65-66L0%0.0
12-7Drexel (132.0)CAAA75-61L0%0.0
12-19Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA64-58L0%0.0
12-21Miami OH (161.0)MACH64-79L0%0.0
12-28Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA70-69L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH53-57L0%0.0
1-4Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH70-65W100%0.0
1-7Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH66-74L0%0.0
1-11Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA102-94L0%0.0
1-13Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA100-81L0%0.0
1-16Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA70-64L0%0.0
1-18Belmont (57.0)OVCH65-79L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH78-94L0%0.0
1-25Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH74-80L0%0.0
1-30Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA68-81W100%0.0
2-6Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH65-75L0%0.0
2-8Murray St. (142.0)OVCH65-73L0%0.0
2-13Belmont (57.0)OVCA73-71L0%0.0
2-20SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH66-61W100%0.0
2-27Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA68-70W100%0.0
3-1Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA70-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee St.OVC26.1126.1114.3914.39-18.60-18.60
BelmontOVC4.284.2870.0070.001.711.71
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.224.2268.9768.971.601.60
Tennessee TechOVC4.224.2248.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Morehead St.OVC4.224.2258.6258.620.730.73
Jacksonville St.OVC4.134.1325.9325.93-1.99-1.99
Murray St.OVC2.452.4557.6957.690.380.38
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.402.4051.7251.720.080.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.362.3632.1432.14-0.84-0.84
Tennessee MartinOVC2.342.3417.8617.86-1.50-1.50
Austin PeayOVC2.342.3433.3333.33-0.78-0.78
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.332.3329.6329.63-0.95-0.95
LipscombASun2.042.0446.4346.43-0.15-0.15
TennesseeSEC1.951.9561.2961.290.440.44
AuburnSEC1.871.8744.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Western MichiganMAC1.871.8770.0070.000.750.75
Alabama A&MSWAC1.871.8740.7440.74-0.35-0.35
USC UpstateASun1.811.8153.3353.330.120.12
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.811.8170.0070.000.720.72
Wichita St.MVC1.811.81100.00100.001.811.81
Illinois St.MVC1.811.8148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC1.781.7872.7372.730.810.81
Miami OHMAC1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
HawaiiBW1.781.7860.7160.710.380.38
DrexelCAA1.751.7551.7251.720.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.320.3253.1253.120.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.290.2927.5927.59-0.13-0.13
Indiana St.MVC0.270.2767.7467.740.100.10
IPFWSum0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.2330.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Missouri St.MVC0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
OhioMAC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1713.7913.79-0.12-0.12
North FloridaASun0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1741.1841.18-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
DrakeMVC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
XavierBE0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
UMKCWAC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
ToledoMAC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
HofstraCAA0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckySB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00