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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Tennessee St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:162.0
Current RPI:162
Expected SOS:216
Current SOS:216
Current Record:15-13
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:54
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13162.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Davis (166.0)BWN64-78W100%0.0
11-12Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyN69-65W100%0.0
11-13Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA61-69W100%0.0
11-19Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA63-74W100%0.0
11-23Canisius (171.0)MAACA58-72W100%0.0
11-29Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA83-59L0%0.0
12-3Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA71-72W100%0.0
12-10North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA67-55L0%0.0
12-14Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH68-46W100%0.0
12-19Duke (6.0)ACCA65-55L0%0.0
12-31Murray St. (230.0)OVCA92-83L0%0.0
1-2Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH73-76L0%0.0
1-5Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH65-62W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH76-65W100%0.0
1-12Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA49-63W100%0.0
1-14Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA87-85L0%0.0
1-19Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH74-80L0%0.0
1-21Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH79-86L0%0.0
1-25SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA56-76W100%0.0
1-28Belmont (61.0)OVCH76-93L0%0.0
2-2Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH67-77L0%0.0
2-4Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA66-70W100%0.0
2-9Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA59-72W100%0.0
2-11Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA63-57L0%0.0
2-16Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH64-52W100%0.0
2-18Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH68-66W100%0.0
2-25Belmont (61.0)OVCA68-63L0%0.0
3-1Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCN78-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee St.OVC26.1926.1957.0457.043.693.69
Jacksonville St.OVC4.504.5053.3353.330.300.30
BelmontOVC4.434.4376.0076.002.312.31
Tennessee TechOVC4.374.3732.1432.14-1.56-1.56
Morehead St.OVC4.364.3642.3142.31-0.67-0.67
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.274.2737.0437.04-1.11-1.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.244.2441.3841.38-0.73-0.73
Murray St.OVC2.642.6443.3343.33-0.35-0.35
Tennessee MartinOVC2.572.5763.3363.330.690.69
Austin PeayOVC2.482.4833.3333.33-0.83-0.83
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.452.4518.5218.52-1.54-1.54
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.452.4542.3142.31-0.38-0.38
LipscombASun2.262.2658.6258.620.390.39
Northern ArizonaBSky1.931.9326.6726.67-0.90-0.90
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.911.9190.6290.621.551.55
VanderbiltSEC1.911.9154.5554.550.170.17
Alabama St.SWAC1.901.9024.1424.14-0.98-0.98
Kennesaw St.ASun1.881.8837.9337.93-0.45-0.45
Santa ClaraWCC1.871.8751.6151.610.060.06
UC DavisBW1.841.8464.5264.520.530.53
CanisiusMAAC1.811.8156.2556.250.230.23
DukeACC1.811.8176.4776.470.960.96
North Carolina St.ACC1.811.8145.1645.16-0.18-0.18
Western KentuckyCUSA0.300.3046.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.216.906.90-0.18-0.18
MarshallCUSA0.210.2155.8855.880.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
NJITASun0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
IndianaB100.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
RiderMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
KentuckySEC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
ClemsonACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MaristMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00