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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Tennessee St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:341.0
Current RPI:341
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:237
Current Record:3-26
Expected Record:3-26
Current Conf Record:2-14
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-13
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:228



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-26341.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH67-84L0%0.0
11-23Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA78-46L0%0.0
11-25Virginia (7.0)ACCA79-36L0%0.0
11-28Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA66-58L0%0.0
11-29St. Francis NY (170.0)NECN57-59L0%0.0
12-2Hampton (251.0)MEACH54-62L0%0.0
12-6Lipscomb (271.0)ASunA77-68L0%0.0
12-16Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA65-58L0%0.0
12-19Hampton (251.0)MEACA66-54L0%0.0
12-21Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA65-47L0%0.0
12-27Tennessee (96.0)SECA67-46L0%0.0
12-29TCU (131.0)B12A60-40L0%0.0
12-31Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH73-62W100%0.0
1-3Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH62-77L0%0.0
1-7Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH57-64L0%0.0
1-10SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA45-38L0%0.0
1-15Austin Peay (318.0)OVCA69-68L0%0.0
1-17Murray St. (63.0)OVCA91-72L0%0.0
1-25Belmont (105.0)OVCH55-63L0%0.0
1-29Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH64-56W100%0.0
1-31Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH45-43W100%0.0
2-5Morehead St. (201.0)OVCA72-57L0%0.0
2-7Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA77-72L0%0.0
2-12Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA71-52L0%0.0
2-14Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH41-69L0%0.0
2-21Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA55-50L0%0.0
2-23Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH70-86L0%0.0
2-26Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH52-69L0%0.0
2-28Belmont (105.0)OVCA88-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee St.OVC26.2226.227.447.44-22.32-22.32
BelmontOVC4.314.3165.5265.521.341.34
Morehead St.OVC4.204.2043.3343.33-0.56-0.56
Tennessee TechOVC4.154.1534.6234.62-1.28-1.28
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.154.1557.6957.690.640.64
Jacksonville St.OVC4.104.1033.3333.33-1.37-1.37
Southern IllinoisMVC3.573.5730.0030.00-1.43-1.43
HamptonMEAC3.453.4545.1645.16-0.33-0.33
Murray St.OVC2.522.5282.7682.761.651.65
Austin PeayOVC2.442.4418.5218.52-1.54-1.54
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.432.4337.0437.04-0.63-0.63
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.412.4150.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.402.4036.0036.00-0.67-0.67
Tennessee MartinOVC2.382.3855.5655.560.260.26
LipscombASun2.042.0437.0437.04-0.53-0.53
TennesseeSEC1.871.8748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC1.841.8456.6756.670.240.24
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.811.8151.5251.520.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun1.791.7927.5927.59-0.80-0.80
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.721.7245.4545.45-0.16-0.16
St. Francis NYNEC1.721.7265.6265.620.540.54
TCUB121.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
VirginiaACC1.721.7290.3290.321.391.39
North FloridaASun0.300.3064.5264.520.090.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
ButlerBE0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
MarshallCUSA0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
BradleyMVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC0.120.12100.00100.000.120.12
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Saint LouisA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
IllinoisB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
SyracuseACC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1190.9190.910.090.09
La SalleA100.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
RutgersB100.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
KansasB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Kansas St.B120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01