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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Tennessee St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:326.5
Current RPI:345
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:298
Current Record:0-8
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:332
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16216.00.01%
12-17219.00.01%
11-18241.70.11%
10-19266.20.51%
9-20283.41.64%
8-21298.65.36%
7-22311.110.74%
6-23320.917.32%
5-24328.421.89%
4-25334.720.96%
3-26339.513.33%
2-27343.66.21%
1-28346.21.66%
0-29347.80.24%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Southern Illinois (203.5)MVCH67-84L0%0.0
11-23Vanderbilt (89.5)SECA78-46L0%0.0
11-25Virginia (7.3)ACCA79-36L0%0.0
11-28Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACA66-58L0%0.0
11-29St. Francis NY (268.3)NECN57-59L0%0.0
12-2Hampton (246.4)MEACH54-62L0%0.0
12-6Lipscomb (239.9)ASunA77-68L0%0.0
12-16Southern Illinois (203.5)MVCA65-58L0%0.0
12-19Hampton (246.4)MEACA0-017%-11.1
12-21Middle Tennessee (203.3)CUSAA0-013%-13.2
12-27Tennessee (131.3)SECA0-05%-19.2
12-29TCU (72.5)B12A0-01%-26.1
12-31Kennesaw St. (295.2)ASunH0-063%3.8
1-3Southeast Missouri St. (245.0)OVCH0-035%-4.5
1-7Eastern Illinois (266.0)OVCH0-044%-1.8
1-10SIU Edwardsville (332.6)OVCA0-032%-5.7
1-15Austin Peay (300.3)OVCA0-023%-8.6
1-17Murray St. (160.4)OVCA0-07%-17.1
1-24Belmont (125.7)OVCH0-021%-9.4
1-29Tennessee Tech (202.0)OVCH0-034%-4.7
1-31Jacksonville St. (264.1)OVCH0-054%1.3
2-5Morehead St. (209.5)OVCA0-09%-15.9
2-7Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCA0-09%-16.1
2-12Tennessee Tech (202.0)OVCA0-013%-13.4
2-14Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCH0-027%-7.3
2-19Morehead St. (209.5)OVCH0-027%-7.1
2-21Jacksonville St. (264.1)OVCA0-026%-7.4
2-26Tennessee Martin (144.5)OVCH0-021%-9.5
2-28Belmont (125.7)OVCA0-06%-18.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee St.OVC28.2926.300.0016.71-28.29-17.51
BelmontOVC0.784.2260.0061.170.160.94
Tennessee TechOVC0.394.1950.0047.550.00-0.21
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.1355.5637.040.00-1.07
Morehead St.OVC0.004.1318.1843.50-0.00-0.54
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.004.1242.8653.50-0.000.29
Southern IllinoisMVC12.503.5850.0045.900.00-0.29
HamptonMEAC6.253.4533.3347.28-2.08-0.19
Austin PeayOVC1.022.4822.2229.29-0.56-1.03
Murray St.OVC0.002.4455.5660.650.000.52
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.622.4144.4446.87-0.07-0.15
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.622.400.0021.85-0.62-1.35
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.3533.3338.34-0.00-0.55
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.3562.5066.230.000.76
LipscombASun6.642.0614.2940.34-4.74-0.40
TennesseeSEC0.001.8450.0044.470.00-0.20
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.8244.4444.22-0.00-0.21
VanderbiltSEC6.641.8171.4359.042.850.33
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.7936.3633.54-0.00-0.59
Saint Peter'sMAAC6.251.7230.0045.37-2.50-0.16
St. Francis NYNEC6.251.7212.5038.39-4.69-0.40
TCUB120.001.72100.0065.100.000.52
VirginiaACC6.251.72100.0084.806.251.20
North FloridaASun0.000.2844.4456.91-0.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC1.330.2350.0056.340.000.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2225.0033.17-0.00-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2171.4363.890.000.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2177.7871.110.000.09
USC UpstateASun0.000.1960.0064.620.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1910.0018.58-0.00-0.12
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1818.1828.02-0.00-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1837.5040.20-0.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1866.6764.310.000.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1833.3332.85-0.00-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1611.1144.04-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1544.4451.58-0.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.310.1520.0029.81-0.19-0.06
ButlerBE0.000.1580.0072.550.000.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1555.5649.500.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1550.0052.710.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1570.0052.610.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.1566.6754.660.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.350.1540.0046.73-0.07-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1525.0038.92-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.1520.0019.99-0.00-0.09
BradleyMVC0.000.1433.3332.09-0.00-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1450.0039.340.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1375.0071.730.000.05
StetsonASun0.000.1310.0027.42-0.00-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.120.0014.79-0.31-0.09
Wright St.Horz0.000.1260.0057.600.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1244.4431.58-0.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0031.74-0.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0094.790.000.11
Saint LouisA100.620.1260.0033.870.12-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1277.7869.190.000.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.1233.3349.71-0.10-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.310.120.0028.26-0.31-0.05
IllinoisB100.310.1272.7365.930.140.04
VCUA100.310.1270.0071.420.120.05
AmericanPat0.310.1260.0065.400.060.04
HowardMEAC0.000.1230.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.1218.1835.99-0.20-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1277.7871.960.000.05
SyracuseACC0.310.1266.6757.800.100.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1244.4439.74-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1272.7367.750.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0085.330.000.08
UABCUSA0.000.1230.0037.28-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1171.4359.920.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1190.0078.050.000.06
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1187.5085.320.000.08
La SalleA101.330.1150.0049.960.00-0.00
RutgersB101.330.1160.0035.070.27-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0980.0069.620.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0990.0075.520.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.620.090.0011.40-0.62-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0034.08-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0017.51-0.00-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0941.6744.33-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0944.4470.08-0.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0950.0032.620.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.008.63-0.00-0.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.620.0918.1821.30-0.40-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.310.0955.5656.400.030.01
TexasB120.390.0990.0081.860.310.06
NJITind0.350.0936.3640.98-0.09-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0940.0050.78-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0944.4451.04-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.620.0971.4361.370.270.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0944.4436.35-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0960.0064.930.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.510.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0980.0064.110.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0981.8264.110.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0962.5064.260.000.02
YaleIvy0.620.0972.7367.180.280.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0928.5741.17-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0038.46-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.390.0890.0073.870.310.04
KansasB120.000.0888.8969.390.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0860.0037.220.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0844.4456.51-0.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0888.8963.660.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0766.6748.410.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.33-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.56-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.020.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8638.11-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0687.5054.790.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.120.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.280.0627.2737.85-0.13-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.560.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.870.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3331.58-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.670.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.92-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.310.0637.5034.19-0.08-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.480.000.03
IowaB100.310.0672.7362.590.140.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0628.5757.26-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.57-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.680.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.19-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.31-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.280.0640.0033.79-0.06-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0622.2230.85-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.350.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.71-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.44-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0058.360.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0642.8627.08-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.270.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.390.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.130.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.54-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.65-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.280.0655.5661.390.030.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2237.50-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.61-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.280.0614.2930.74-0.20-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.290.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4449.65-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0052.800.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5051.81-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0688.8955.910.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.940.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.59-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.350.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.900.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.28-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0350.0041.830.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.390.0366.6758.240.130.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.50-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.580.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0026.57-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.43-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.300.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4348.860.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.46-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.960.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.690.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.87-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.0310.0020.91-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4544.07-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
ArmyPat0.350.0377.7868.780.190.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0064.610.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.670.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5064.770.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.020.000.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.310.0366.6766.340.100.01
GeorgetownBE0.350.0366.6759.460.120.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.310.0370.0060.790.120.01
LibertyBSth0.350.0325.0034.77-0.17-0.01
MarylandB100.310.0390.9167.660.260.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.630.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.890.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.310.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0337.5033.00-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
PurdueB100.390.0372.7363.730.180.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.28-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.880.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0036.67-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.62-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.390.0320.0041.46-0.23-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.280.0333.3342.19-0.09-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.240.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.59-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.008.88-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.280.0350.0051.050.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.01-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.41-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0055.810.000.00
Seton HallBE0.280.0390.0067.260.230.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01