Tennessee St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	107.0
Current RPI:	107
Expected SOS:	152
Current SOS:	152
Current Record:	18-12
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	12-6
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	118
Expected OOC SOS:	145

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-12	107.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	A	71-37	L	0%
11-14	Western Kentucky (189.0)	SB	A	52-49	L	0%
11-20	South Carolina (194.0)	SEC	A	63-64	W	100%
11-22	North Carolina (3.0)	ACC	A	102-69	L	0%
11-25	Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)	SWAC	N	90-89	L	0%
11-26	Morgan St. (286.0)	MEAC	N	69-64	W	100%
12-1	Middle Tennessee (56.0)	SB	H	62-77	L	0%
12-6	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	A	75-62	L	0%
12-10	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	H	65-57	W	100%
12-17	Delaware St. (249.0)	MEAC	A	55-59	W	100%
12-21	Alabama A&M (342.0)	SWAC	H	78-68	W	100%
12-29	Tennessee Martin (326.0)	OVC	H	83-67	W	100%
12-31	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	A	73-68	L	0%
1-5	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	A	92-86	L	0%
1-7	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	A	72-65	L	0%
1-11	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	H	77-72	W	100%
1-14	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	H	52-49	W	100%
1-16	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	A	69-63	L	0%
1-19	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	A	46-55	W	100%
1-26	Tennessee Martin (326.0)	OVC	A	59-72	W	100%
1-28	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	H	91-85	W	100%
1-30	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	H	77-57	W	100%
2-4	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	A	72-75	W	100%
2-9	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	A	68-72	W	100%
2-11	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	H	68-53	W	100%
2-14	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	H	69-64	W	100%
2-19	Miami OH (247.0)	MAC	A	61-68	W	100%
2-23	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	H	62-80	L	0%
3-2	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	N	59-52	W	100%
3-3	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	N	52-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee St.	OVC	26.36	26.36	64.18	64.18	7.47	7.47
Murray St.	OVC	5.76	5.76	100.00	100.00	5.76	5.76
Austin Peay	OVC	4.24	4.24	34.48	34.48	-1.32	-1.32
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.20	4.20	57.14	57.14	0.60	0.60
Morehead St.	OVC	4.13	4.13	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Jacksonville St.	OVC	4.13	4.13	42.86	42.86	-0.59	-0.59
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.08	4.08	46.43	46.43	-0.29	-0.29
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.08	4.08	7.41	7.41	-3.47	-3.47
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.61	2.61	46.43	46.43	-0.19	-0.19
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.47	2.47	38.46	38.46	-0.57	-0.57
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.43	2.43	33.33	33.33	-0.81	-0.81
Middle Tennessee	SB	1.93	1.93	79.31	79.31	1.13	1.13
Belmont	ASun	1.86	1.86	78.12	78.12	1.05	1.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.82	1.82	32.14	32.14	-0.65	-0.65
Western Kentucky	SB	1.81	1.81	43.75	43.75	-0.23	-0.23
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.78	1.78	62.50	62.50	0.45	0.45
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.78	1.78	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	1.75	1.75	28.57	28.57	-0.75	-0.75
North Carolina	ACC	1.72	1.72	84.85	84.85	1.20	1.20
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.72	1.72	20.00	20.00	-1.03	-1.03
South Carolina	SEC	1.72	1.72	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
Central Michigan	MAC	1.70	1.70	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
St. Louis	A10	1.67	1.67	76.67	76.67	0.89	0.89
Lipscomb	ASun	0.34	0.34	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas St.	SB	0.34	0.34	39.39	39.39	-0.07	-0.07
Bowling Green	MAC	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.23	0.23	75.00	75.00	0.12	0.12
Ball St.	MAC	0.23	0.23	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.21	0.21	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.20	0.20	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.19	0.19	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.18	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.17	0.17	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.16	0.16	6.67	6.67	-0.14	-0.14
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.15	0.15	13.79	13.79	-0.11	-0.11
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.14	34.62	34.62	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	94.12	94.12	0.07	0.07
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.06	18.75	18.75	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	6.45	6.45	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00