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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Tennessee St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:286.0
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:302
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:299
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11110.00.02%
16-12140.40.08%
15-13152.70.24%
14-14175.40.59%
13-15201.41.95%
12-16218.44.59%
11-17239.38.00%
10-18259.912.97%
9-19278.017.46%
8-20296.218.33%
7-21310.415.15%
6-22323.611.24%
5-23332.06.27%
4-24339.32.19%
3-25343.90.79%
2-26348.30.09%
1-27347.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Southern Illinois (125.2)MVCH67-84L0%0.0
11-23Vanderbilt (149.8)SECA0-011%-15.0
11-25Virginia (28.8)ACCA0-02%-24.0
11-28Saint Peter's (305.2)MAACA0-038%-3.8
12-2Hampton (178.6)MEACH0-037%-3.9
12-6Lipscomb (246.9)ASunA0-031%-6.0
12-16Southern Illinois (125.2)MVCA0-011%-14.7
12-19Hampton (178.6)MEACA0-018%-11.1
12-21Middle Tennessee (167.7)CUSAA0-017%-11.4
12-27Tennessee (156.2)SECA0-012%-14.2
12-29TCU (161.5)B12A0-09%-15.7
12-31Kennesaw St. (302.5)ASunH0-068%5.5
1-3Southeast Missouri St. (261.7)OVCH0-051%0.4
1-7Eastern Illinois (285.2)OVCH0-058%2.5
1-10SIU Edwardsville (306.1)OVCA0-040%-2.9
1-15Austin Peay (293.3)OVCA0-036%-4.3
1-17Murray St. (111.0)OVCA0-08%-16.6
1-24Belmont (80.1)OVCH0-018%-10.9
1-29Tennessee Tech (272.9)OVCH0-056%1.8
1-31Jacksonville St. (306.2)OVCH0-068%5.8
2-5Morehead St. (144.5)OVCA0-013%-13.4
2-7Eastern Kentucky (149.4)OVCA0-014%-12.9
2-12Tennessee Tech (272.9)OVCA0-033%-5.4
2-14Eastern Kentucky (149.4)OVCH0-032%-5.7
2-19Morehead St. (144.5)OVCH0-030%-6.2
2-21Jacksonville St. (306.2)OVCA0-045%-1.4
2-26Tennessee Martin (295.0)OVCH0-065%4.8
2-28Belmont (80.1)OVCA0-07%-18.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee St.OVC37.5026.340.0031.58-37.50-9.70
BelmontOVC0.004.3850.0070.430.001.79
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.340.0035.56-0.00-1.26
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.290.0026.46-0.00-2.02
Morehead St.OVC0.004.290.0057.15-0.000.61
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.004.28100.0061.430.000.98
Southern IllinoisMVC50.003.710.0057.89-50.000.58
HamptonMEAC0.003.570.0063.00-0.000.93
Austin PeayOVC0.002.570.0032.83-0.00-0.88
Murray St.OVC0.002.5350.0070.950.001.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.500.0041.19-0.00-0.44
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.500.0032.71-0.00-0.86
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.4450.0035.700.00-0.70
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.440.0033.80-0.00-0.79
LipscombASun0.002.140.0039.06-0.00-0.47
TennesseeSEC0.001.9150.0042.210.00-0.30
VanderbiltSEC0.001.88100.0047.190.00-0.11
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.880.0048.07-0.00-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.850.0031.25-0.00-0.70
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.001.790.0025.49-0.00-0.88
TCUB120.001.79100.0053.140.000.11
VirginiaACC0.001.79100.0065.770.000.56
North FloridaASun0.000.300.0048.49-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2333.3338.23-0.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.230.0048.48-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.21100.0063.340.000.06
USC UpstateASun0.000.20100.0050.460.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.190.0023.67-0.00-0.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1933.3334.10-0.00-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.190.0044.49-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1950.0052.180.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.19100.0056.370.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.180.0051.35-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.160.0055.69-0.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.160.0028.74-0.00-0.07
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0057.160.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.16100.0056.850.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1650.0046.460.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1666.6760.300.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.15100.0041.770.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.150.0029.13-0.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.150.0025.25-0.00-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.13100.0071.680.000.06
StetsonASun0.000.130.0031.63-0.00-0.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1366.6753.710.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.130.0029.01-0.00-0.05
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0085.280.000.09
IllinoisB100.000.13100.0060.930.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.130.0035.31-0.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.13100.0074.610.000.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1350.0043.510.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.130.0032.81-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.130.0038.34-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1350.0053.110.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.13100.0065.830.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1350.0051.650.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0038.55-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1366.6770.630.000.05
VCUA100.000.13100.0076.230.000.07
Saint LouisA1012.500.13100.0068.9312.500.05
AmericanPat0.000.1350.0054.500.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0036.790.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1250.0043.770.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1250.0067.190.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0077.610.000.07
UABCUSA0.000.120.0041.28-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.120.0034.17-0.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.12100.0067.300.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.12100.0084.320.000.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0039.93-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.100.0069.58-0.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.10100.0046.120.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1050.0052.080.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.10100.0068.310.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.100.0047.13-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1025.0030.26-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.100.0026.57-0.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0021.38-0.00-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.0032.76-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0063.440.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0933.3351.93-0.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0966.6757.950.000.02
TexasB120.000.09100.0084.350.000.06
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0037.190.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.09100.0044.790.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0950.0068.630.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0950.0054.530.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0061.120.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0040.830.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.09100.0060.010.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.09100.0058.910.000.02
BaylorB120.000.09100.0070.330.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0049.980.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.090.0054.91-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0034.19-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.520.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0049.930.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.07100.0068.310.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3328.81-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0024.28-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0750.0035.370.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.510.000.01
USCP120.000.0733.3326.65-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3333.83-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3350.49-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.48-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0650.0062.850.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.35-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.0666.6773.790.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.990.000.01
NJITind0.000.0633.3329.88-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0055.290.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3338.98-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0650.0059.620.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0044.770.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.68-0.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.87-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0050.010.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0066.43-0.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.41-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0047.69-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0034.44-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.880.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.410.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0052.100.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.06100.0057.080.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0043.270.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6747.950.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.020.000.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.340.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0034.150.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.06100.0058.500.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0650.0058.740.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.300.000.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.31-0.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.95-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.060.0051.39-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0029.100.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.400.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.360.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.54-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0045.040.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.060.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.040.0030.64-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.04100.0040.980.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.04100.0063.800.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.040.0031.43-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.04100.0051.640.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.23-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.970.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0045.27-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0062.880.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.64-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.73-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.560.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.780.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6749.560.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.030.0044.62-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.03100.0078.150.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0038.380.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.030.0058.38-0.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.360.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.86-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.57-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0070.050.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.230.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0066.730.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0046.570.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0049.500.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.060.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0056.950.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.03100.0071.490.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.810.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6743.460.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0067.660.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0048.410.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0070.180.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0070.930.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.99-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.03100.0057.350.000.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0061.020.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.87-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0072.220.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0045.35-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0055.200.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0350.0040.820.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0035.120.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0024.870.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0021.31-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.100.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.95-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.22-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0033.38-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3343.60-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0055.750.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.030.0032.60-0.00-0.01