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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Tennessee St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:93.2
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:249
Current SOS:131
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-233.00.01%
24-339.10.39%
23-444.12.14%
22-553.36.63%
21-664.812.67%
20-776.918.99%
19-890.320.12%
18-9104.917.37%
17-10121.811.67%
16-11140.46.10%
15-12159.92.56%
14-13177.01.06%
13-14199.50.22%
12-15228.60.05%
11-16229.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Davis (236.9)BWN64-78W100%0.0
11-12Northern Arizona (330.5)BSkyN69-65W100%0.0
11-13Santa Clara (214.8)WCCA61-69W100%0.0
11-19Middle Tennessee (55.1)CUSAA63-74W100%0.0
11-23Canisius (211.7)MAACA58-72W100%0.0
11-29Vanderbilt (72.4)SECA83-59L0%0.0
12-3Lipscomb (296.4)ASunA0-074%7.8
12-10North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-029%-6.6
12-14Alabama St. (324.9)SWACH0-095%19.9
12-19Duke (8.6)ACCA0-03%-21.9
12-31Murray St. (139.5)OVCA0-042%-2.6
1-2Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunH0-092%16.9
1-5Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCH0-086%13.0
1-7Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCH0-080%9.9
1-12Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCA0-058%2.4
1-14Morehead St. (211.9)OVCA0-059%2.8
1-19Tennessee Tech (304.6)OVCH0-088%14.3
1-21Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCH0-079%9.8
1-25SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCA0-072%7.1
1-28Belmont (122.5)OVCH0-062%3.7
2-2Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCH0-082%11.0
2-4Austin Peay (212.5)OVCA0-065%4.5
2-9Tennessee Tech (304.6)OVCA0-075%8.1
2-11Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCA0-062%3.7
2-16Morehead St. (211.9)OVCH0-077%8.9
2-18Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCH0-076%8.6
2-25Belmont (122.5)OVCA0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee St.OVC28.6026.2091.1875.4723.5513.35
BelmontOVC0.604.5540.0062.44-0.121.13
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.5014.2929.43-0.00-1.85
Jacksonville St.OVC0.604.4957.1448.660.09-0.12
Morehead St.OVC0.004.4920.0042.73-0.00-0.65
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.004.4342.8647.81-0.00-0.19
Austin PeayOVC0.002.5440.0041.88-0.00-0.41
Tennessee MartinOVC0.692.5475.0055.530.350.28
Murray St.OVC0.602.5442.8662.03-0.090.61
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.5157.1441.070.00-0.45
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.5150.0039.340.00-0.54
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.5150.0044.470.00-0.28
LipscombASun0.002.3514.2933.34-0.00-0.78
Northern ArizonaBSky9.452.0116.6729.12-6.30-0.84
Middle TennesseeCUSA8.331.98100.0075.538.331.01
VanderbiltSEC8.851.9850.0047.160.00-0.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.601.9814.2935.62-0.43-0.57
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.9528.5731.11-0.00-0.74
Santa ClaraWCC10.121.9442.8637.49-1.45-0.49
UC DavisBW9.451.9166.6750.133.150.01
CanisiusMAAC8.331.8840.0042.90-1.67-0.27
DukeACC0.001.8887.5078.080.001.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.8871.4349.890.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.3242.8634.17-0.00-0.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.220.0013.30-0.00-0.16
JacksonvilleASun0.000.2057.1459.480.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.2033.3338.20-0.00-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.1983.3359.600.000.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1750.0052.140.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.600.1733.3340.39-0.20-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.1728.5728.26-0.00-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1616.6730.02-0.00-0.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1687.5075.320.000.08
TennesseeSEC0.000.1625.0034.47-0.00-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.1566.6739.720.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.1333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1350.0071.330.000.06
NJITASun0.000.1342.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.1314.2931.71-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.690.1316.6730.27-0.46-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1366.6751.460.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.1350.0035.230.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1375.0064.960.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1385.7155.550.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.1325.0056.92-0.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1366.6769.810.000.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1320.0034.39-0.00-0.04
MississippiSEC0.600.1371.4346.010.26-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.1285.7175.950.000.06
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1233.3338.19-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1250.0047.990.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.690.12100.0086.250.690.09
Miami FLACC0.000.1271.4365.740.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1285.7180.010.000.07
Wake ForestACC0.000.1271.4352.370.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1014.2929.15-0.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.100.0022.69-0.00-0.06
TroySB0.000.1033.3332.23-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.1083.3375.060.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1071.4343.020.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1071.4370.330.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1050.0046.670.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1071.4356.050.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1050.0045.920.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1050.0050.940.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.1028.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1050.0033.010.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.100.0024.25-0.00-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.1050.0052.330.000.00
TCUB120.000.10100.0059.480.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0049.010.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0960.0067.410.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0914.2929.81-0.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.520.0950.0054.690.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0033.43-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.600.0983.3377.170.400.05
AuburnSEC0.000.0983.3355.200.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.600.090.0038.35-0.60-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0940.0050.88-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.600.090.0021.30-0.60-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0983.3362.840.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0960.0052.760.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.520.0916.6740.71-0.35-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0928.5727.50-0.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0983.3362.080.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0985.7162.410.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0942.8635.68-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0783.3380.700.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3333.15-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0771.4374.450.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0750.0029.280.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0733.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6770.930.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0750.0050.290.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0783.3361.150.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.600.0671.4363.090.260.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.600.0620.0054.94-0.360.01
DuquesneA100.690.0637.5034.65-0.17-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0625.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC1.190.0642.8650.36-0.170.00
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0614.2947.44-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.600.0671.4349.590.26-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0616.6729.36-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
DrakeMVC0.600.030.0021.30-0.60-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
OaklandHorz0.600.0383.3378.430.400.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0360.0058.950.000.01
ArizonaP120.520.0385.7170.990.370.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.520.0342.8638.05-0.07-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.02
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
WashingtonP120.600.0357.1452.630.090.00
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
BucknellPat0.600.0375.0067.660.300.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.600.03100.0075.690.600.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.690.0342.8637.60-0.10-0.01