Tennessee St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	105.0
Current RPI:	105
Expected SOS:	121
Current SOS:	121
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	12-6
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-2
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	169
Expected OOC SOS:	67

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	105.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	81-66	L	0%
11-13	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	78-71	L	0%
11-15	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	A	72-43	L	0%
11-19	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	N	68-57	W	100%
11-20	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	59-57	L	0%
11-21	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	N	81-70	L	0%
12-1	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	A	72-83	W	100%
12-4	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	76-66	W	100%
12-8	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	A	68-38	L	0%
12-18	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	77-48	L	0%
12-21	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	67-64	W	100%
12-29	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	67-59	W	100%
1-3	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	A	66-72	W	100%
1-5	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	A	57-66	W	100%
1-10	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	H	80-48	W	100%
1-12	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	81-69	W	100%
1-17	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	66-60	W	100%
1-19	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	78-66	L	0%
1-24	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	76-67	L	0%
1-26	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	A	78-69	L	0%
1-31	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	H	84-65	W	100%
2-7	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	A	82-88	W	100%
2-9	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	A	69-48	L	0%
2-14	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	H	80-69	W	100%
2-20	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	A	73-83	W	100%
2-23	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	67-69	L	0%
2-28	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	H	100-101	L	0%
3-2	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	85-81	W	100%
3-7	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	N	88-75	W	100%
3-8	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	82-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee St.	OVC	26.35	26.35	58.06	58.06	4.25	4.25
Belmont	OVC	5.78	5.78	81.48	81.48	3.64	3.64
Morehead St.	OVC	5.73	5.73	39.29	39.29	-1.23	-1.23
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.14	4.14	72.41	72.41	1.86	1.86
Jacksonville St.	OVC	4.10	4.10	62.50	62.50	1.02	1.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.07	4.07	40.00	40.00	-0.81	-0.81
Murray St.	OVC	2.47	2.47	64.29	64.29	0.70	0.70
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.41	2.41	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.38	2.38	25.93	25.93	-1.15	-1.15
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.33	2.33	36.67	36.67	-0.62	-0.62
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.32	2.32	29.17	29.17	-0.97	-0.97
Austin Peay	OVC	2.30	2.30	21.43	21.43	-1.32	-1.32
Middle Tennessee	SB	1.81	1.81	84.38	84.38	1.24	1.24
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.80	1.80	70.00	70.00	0.72	0.72
Georgia St.	CAA	1.80	1.80	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
South Alabama	SB	1.77	1.77	59.26	59.26	0.33	0.33
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.73	1.73	32.14	32.14	-0.62	-0.62
Missouri	SEC	1.73	1.73	68.75	68.75	0.65	0.65
Monmouth	NEC	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
Drexel	CAA	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Brigham Young	WCC	1.69	1.69	63.33	63.33	0.45	0.45
Minnesota	B10	1.69	1.69	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	1.67	1.67	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Lipscomb	ASun	0.37	0.37	37.93	37.93	-0.09	-0.09
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.27	0.27	70.97	70.97	0.11	0.11
Arkansas St.	SB	0.20	0.20	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.20	0.20	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.16	0.16	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.15	0.15	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.14	0.14	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	10.00	10.00	-0.11	-0.11
Florida International	SB	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	14.81	14.81	-0.08	-0.08
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.11	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.09	-0.09
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01