live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Tennessee St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:164.3
Current RPI:170
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:322
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:337



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-7113.60.92%
19-8130.37.18%
18-9146.922.04%
17-10162.932.84%
16-11178.626.59%
15-12195.29.31%
14-13212.61.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Loyola MD (229.9)PatA71-86W100%0.0
11-16Ohio (109.8)MACA75-67L0%0.0
11-21Middle Tennessee (79.3)CUSAH66-69L0%0.0
11-28Kennesaw St. (294.3)ASunA49-56W100%0.0
12-5Stetson (304.5)ASunH74-54W100%0.0
12-12Grambling St. (344.6)SWACN64-52W100%0.0
12-14Stetson (304.5)ASunA90-93W100%0.0
12-17Lipscomb (275.0)ASunH89-86W100%0.0
12-19Alcorn St. (289.3)SWACN81-76W100%0.0
12-22Illinois St. (129.6)MVCA66-55L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee (118.4)SECA74-69L0%0.0
1-2Southeast Missouri St. (331.3)OVCA66-72W100%0.0
1-6Eastern Illinois (254.6)OVCA61-66W100%0.0
1-9SIU Edwardsville (318.9)OVCH63-60W100%0.0
1-14Austin Peay (242.1)OVCH66-52W100%0.0
1-16Murray St. (185.5)OVCH73-71W100%0.0
1-24Belmont (84.7)OVCA103-95L0%0.0
1-28Tennessee Tech (100.1)OVCA81-79L0%0.0
1-30Jacksonville St. (304.4)OVCA53-78W100%0.0
2-4Eastern Kentucky (196.6)OVCH81-97L0%0.0
2-6Morehead St. (162.2)OVCH77-76W100%0.0
2-10Tennessee Tech (100.1)OVCH0-051%0.4
2-13Eastern Kentucky (196.6)OVCA0-041%-2.5
2-18Morehead St. (162.2)OVCA0-027%-6.6
2-20Jacksonville St. (304.4)OVCH0-082%9.9
2-25Tennessee Martin (241.5)OVCA0-048%-0.5
2-27Belmont (84.7)OVCH0-042%-2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee St.OVC26.2426.2870.7165.8310.878.32
BelmontOVC3.064.5665.2265.600.931.42
Tennessee TechOVC2.904.4566.6766.060.971.43
Morehead St.OVC2.904.4552.3853.620.140.32
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.854.4350.0048.160.00-0.16
Jacksonville St.OVC2.854.4326.0925.49-1.36-2.17
StetsonASun4.863.8326.3229.91-2.30-1.54
Murray St.OVC2.952.5747.6251.62-0.140.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.582.5547.8350.08-0.030.00
Austin PeayOVC2.902.5539.1341.96-0.63-0.41
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.852.5118.1821.42-1.81-1.44
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.852.5142.8645.22-0.41-0.24
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.852.5114.2916.40-2.03-1.69
LipscombASun2.752.2826.0930.31-1.31-0.90
Kennesaw St.ASun2.592.1222.7324.27-1.41-1.09
Illinois St.MVC2.491.9552.1749.250.11-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC2.441.9538.8939.87-0.54-0.40
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.481.9570.0068.280.990.71
Grambling St.SWAC2.441.9216.6720.80-1.63-1.12
Loyola MDPat2.381.8536.3638.50-0.65-0.43
OhioMAC2.381.8560.0057.970.480.30
TennesseeSEC2.381.8545.4545.10-0.22-0.18
JacksonvilleASun0.380.3350.0049.850.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.270.3047.6252.06-0.010.01
North FloridaASun0.380.3065.2267.130.110.10
MarshallCUSA0.320.2950.0051.170.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.280.2738.8945.64-0.06-0.02
NJITASun0.320.2754.1755.260.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.320.2722.7323.25-0.17-0.14
Jackson St.SWAC0.300.2447.6252.67-0.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.2359.0959.440.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.210.2222.7327.18-0.11-0.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.2116.6720.14-0.12-0.12
IndianaB100.270.2079.1774.030.160.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.2030.0035.78-0.07-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.210.2086.3685.030.150.14
EvansvilleMVC0.210.1975.0076.230.100.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1945.4546.29-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.1720.8323.63-0.11-0.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1731.8236.12-0.04-0.05
MarquetteBE0.230.1762.5056.260.060.02
FIUCUSA0.170.1740.9145.30-0.03-0.02
IPFWSum0.260.1770.8368.570.110.06
Miami OHMAC0.100.1631.8230.48-0.04-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.210.1672.0070.500.090.07
West VirginiaB120.210.1682.6179.550.140.10
UABCUSA0.160.1682.6179.430.100.09
Ball St.MAC0.160.1663.6459.230.040.03
KentuckySEC0.150.1573.9171.570.070.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1433.3335.08-0.05-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.149.0917.11-0.10-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.190.1465.0066.790.060.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1445.4554.10-0.010.01
Green BayHorz0.160.1454.5556.010.010.02
Saint LouisA100.110.1338.1033.40-0.03-0.04
SamfordSC0.150.1339.1341.32-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.1352.1755.930.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1381.8283.030.060.08
AlabamaSEC0.150.1359.0953.030.030.01
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1045.4542.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.1031.5831.99-0.02-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1059.0959.640.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1052.3847.050.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1039.1338.57-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.110.1054.1749.290.01-0.00
Arizona St.P120.100.1054.1751.650.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.110.1033.3334.19-0.04-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1052.1751.940.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1039.1337.74-0.03-0.02
AkronMAC0.110.1081.8280.040.070.06
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1050.0051.170.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1021.7422.74-0.06-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1028.5726.96-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.160.0952.1753.360.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.0940.9136.61-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0986.3679.150.070.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0956.5260.000.010.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0745.4538.48-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0760.0057.950.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0740.0039.00-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.110.0772.7368.020.050.02
IowaB100.050.0781.8280.120.030.04
MemphisAmer0.120.0760.8760.800.030.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0765.2268.610.020.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0776.1968.220.030.02
RichmondA100.110.0754.5554.550.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0728.0030.73-0.02-0.03
The CitadelSC0.110.0733.3331.30-0.04-0.03
UCFAmer0.110.0752.3845.670.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0728.5731.37-0.02-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.110.0727.7829.14-0.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0721.0523.59-0.07-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0782.6181.140.070.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0771.4368.720.030.03
MercerSC0.110.0772.7370.750.050.03
UTEPCUSA0.120.0752.1751.930.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0714.2915.47-0.04-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.18-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.100.0666.6763.430.030.02
ToledoMAC0.110.0659.0960.070.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.0661.9056.690.030.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0665.2259.020.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0677.2776.850.060.03
AmericanPat0.050.0630.4331.88-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0654.1755.580.000.01
BucknellPat0.050.0654.5558.150.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0659.0958.900.000.01
BYUWCC0.050.0666.6769.500.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.73-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.050.0645.4546.10-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0639.1338.32-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.110.0663.6459.380.030.01
LafayettePat0.100.0622.7324.04-0.06-0.03
LehighPat0.100.0633.3337.25-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.440.010.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0663.1658.810.030.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.0670.0069.100.040.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0675.0071.510.050.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.440.010.02
ButlerBE0.100.0669.5767.220.040.02
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.280.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.0665.2266.160.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0640.9140.64-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.5012.85-0.04-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.0022.35-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.100.0621.7423.66-0.06-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0622.7324.97-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0643.4842.63-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.0043.21-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0654.1755.090.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0635.0035.99-0.01-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0650.0053.300.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0615.0015.36-0.03-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.380.020.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0672.7376.350.020.03
TCUB120.100.0643.4837.22-0.01-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.350.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.310.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.14-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0368.0067.970.020.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0358.3354.170.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0340.0038.50-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0366.6770.540.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.270.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0334.7840.92-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.430.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0357.8956.090.010.00
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.730.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0333.3332.99-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0356.5262.780.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0328.5729.71-0.02-0.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.060.030.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0313.6413.63-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.060.0373.9173.910.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0336.8441.46-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0352.1753.070.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0369.5764.880.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0369.5768.500.000.01
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.51-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0340.9149.26-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.65-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0347.8344.37-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0339.1341.12-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.710.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0366.6767.270.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.9582.700.030.02
Texas TechB120.000.0359.0953.130.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.69-0.03-0.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0363.6459.960.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0345.8341.66-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0328.5732.71-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0333.3335.50-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0340.9145.38-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.230.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.24-0.04-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.040.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.860.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.030.020.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0365.2266.080.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.360.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.810.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.870.030.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0334.7830.36-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.820.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.040.030.02