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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Tennessee St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:152.0
Current RPI:152
Expected SOS:286
Current SOS:286
Current Record:18-10
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:323



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10152.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Loyola MD (255.0)PatA71-86W100%0.0
11-16Ohio (81.0)MACA75-67L0%0.0
11-21Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH66-69L0%0.0
11-28Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA49-56W100%0.0
12-5Stetson (303.0)ASunH74-54W100%0.0
12-12Grambling St. (350.0)SWACN64-52W100%0.0
12-14Stetson (303.0)ASunA90-93W100%0.0
12-17Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH89-86W100%0.0
12-19Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACN81-76W100%0.0
12-22Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA66-55L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee (143.0)SECA74-69L0%0.0
1-2Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA66-72W100%0.0
1-6Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA61-66W100%0.0
1-9SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH63-60W100%0.0
1-14Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH66-52W100%0.0
1-16Murray St. (169.0)OVCH73-71W100%0.0
1-24Belmont (98.0)OVCA103-95L0%0.0
1-28Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA81-79L0%0.0
1-30Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA53-78W100%0.0
2-4Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH81-97L0%0.0
2-6Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH77-76W100%0.0
2-10Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH85-55W100%0.0
2-13Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA78-79W100%0.0
2-18Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA66-61L0%0.0
2-20Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH61-46W100%0.0
2-25Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA72-56L0%0.0
2-28Belmont (98.0)OVCH87-72W100%0.0
3-3Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH72-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee St.OVC26.2626.2667.1967.199.039.03
BelmontOVC4.454.4564.2964.291.271.27
Austin PeayOVC4.374.3748.3948.39-0.14-0.14
Morehead St.OVC4.364.3659.2659.260.810.81
Tennessee TechOVC4.354.3561.5461.541.001.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.274.2746.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Jacksonville St.OVC4.274.2722.2222.22-2.37-2.37
StetsonASun3.723.7228.5728.57-1.59-1.59
Tennessee MartinOVC2.602.6053.3353.330.170.17
Murray St.OVC2.602.6053.5753.570.190.19
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.482.4840.7440.74-0.46-0.46
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.452.4522.2222.22-1.36-1.36
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.452.4511.5411.54-1.88-1.88
LipscombASun2.262.2633.3333.33-0.75-0.75
Kennesaw St.ASun2.022.0232.1432.14-0.72-0.72
Alcorn St.SWAC1.881.8848.1548.15-0.07-0.07
Illinois St.MVC1.881.8853.3353.330.130.13
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.881.8870.0070.000.750.75
Grambling St.SWAC1.851.8514.8114.81-1.30-1.30
Loyola MDPat1.791.7931.0331.03-0.68-0.68
OhioMAC1.791.7963.3363.330.480.48
TennesseeSEC1.791.7942.4242.42-0.27-0.27
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.360.3655.1755.170.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.330.3342.8642.86-0.05-0.05
NJITASun0.300.3053.3353.330.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.290.2951.5251.520.010.01
North FloridaASun0.290.2963.3363.330.080.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.260.2622.8622.86-0.14-0.14
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.2535.7135.71-0.07-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
Jackson St.SWAC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
IndianaB100.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
IPFWSum0.200.2070.9770.970.080.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1884.3884.380.130.13
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
MarquetteBE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
UABCUSA0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Saint LouisA100.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
ArmyPat0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.040.04
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
MercerSC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ColgatePat0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01