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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:112.4
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:199
Current SOS:117
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-312.00.01%
25-427.20.05%
24-537.80.36%
23-645.51.43%
22-755.63.67%
21-867.38.62%
20-980.614.11%
19-1096.318.20%
18-11113.917.81%
17-12132.015.53%
16-13153.510.60%
15-14173.55.90%
14-15192.62.44%
13-16215.90.87%
12-17232.40.31%
11-18242.20.06%
10-19270.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Columbia (133.3)IvyH57-56W100%0.0
11-18Georgia (65.0)SECA80-70L0%0.0
11-21Hofstra (145.0)CAAA66-65L0%0.0
11-25Western Kentucky (175.2)CUSAH0-074%7.6
11-27LIU Brooklyn (280.7)NECH0-087%13.5
12-2Cincinnati (48.9)AmerA0-022%-9.2
12-6Princeton (210.5)IvyA0-053%1.0
12-13Providence (45.4)BEA0-019%-10.6
12-18Canisius (130.3)MAACA0-046%-1.2
12-21Loyola MD (237.3)PatH0-083%11.3
12-23American (76.6)PatH0-055%1.5
12-28Washington (98.0)P12A0-028%-7.1
1-3New Hampshire (278.8)AEH0-087%13.2
1-6Columbia (133.3)IvyA0-040%-3.1
1-10Vermont (131.0)AEA0-041%-2.6
1-14UMBC (305.2)AEH0-091%16.2
1-17Maine (343.2)AEA0-090%15.4
1-19Albany (149.1)AEH0-067%5.4
1-22UMass Lowell (307.8)AEA0-081%10.4
1-25Binghamton (266.0)AEA0-069%6.0
1-28Hartford (289.9)AEH0-090%15.3
1-31New Hampshire (278.8)AEA0-069%6.1
2-7Vermont (131.0)AEH0-065%4.6
2-11UMBC (305.2)AEA0-077%9.0
2-14Maine (343.2)AEH0-097%22.6
2-17Albany (149.1)AEA0-044%-1.8
2-21Binghamton (266.0)AEH0-086%13.2
2-25UMass Lowell (307.8)AEH0-093%17.6
2-28Hartford (289.9)AEA0-075%8.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE34.7226.4333.3367.41-11.579.20
New HampshireAE0.004.360.0043.26-0.00-0.59
UMBCAE0.004.340.0037.07-0.00-1.12
AlbanyAE0.004.3450.0065.420.001.34
MaineAE0.004.340.0017.59-0.00-2.81
VermontAE0.004.3450.0067.490.001.52
BinghamtonAE0.004.330.0040.46-0.00-0.83
HartfordAE0.004.3166.6740.250.00-0.84
UMass LowellAE0.004.3133.3332.73-0.00-1.49
ColumbiaIvy16.673.60100.0063.4416.670.97
LIU BrooklynNEC0.001.940.0044.92-0.00-0.20
Loyola MDPat0.001.9066.6739.280.00-0.41
PrincetonIvy0.001.8533.3349.85-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.001.8566.6764.940.000.55
ProvidenceBE0.001.85100.0062.060.000.45
HofstraCAA16.671.8250.0062.590.000.46
CanisiusMAAC0.001.79100.0057.130.000.25
CincinnatiAmer0.001.72100.0064.410.000.50
GeorgiaSEC16.671.7250.0056.070.000.21
WashingtonP120.001.72100.0055.870.000.20
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.7250.0043.960.00-0.21
DartmouthIvy0.000.500.0033.39-0.00-0.17
NJITind0.000.4533.3328.81-0.00-0.19
YaleIvy0.000.4050.0057.440.000.06
CornellIvy0.000.3740.0041.64-0.00-0.06
BrownIvy0.000.3733.3338.39-0.00-0.09
ColgatePat0.000.370.0036.43-0.00-0.10
Boston UniversityPat0.000.3033.3357.87-0.000.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.3050.0055.680.000.03
WagnerNEC4.170.300.0043.90-4.17-0.04
LehighPat0.000.300.0035.69-0.00-0.09
Boston CollegeACC0.000.2850.0041.690.00-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.000.27100.0060.630.000.06
HarvardIvy0.000.2550.0066.890.000.09
PennIvy0.000.250.0025.28-0.00-0.13
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2550.0036.850.00-0.06
BucknellPat0.000.2433.3346.82-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.24100.0057.810.000.04
SienaMAAC0.000.2133.3358.87-0.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.210.0035.33-0.00-0.06
BryantNEC0.000.1850.0054.540.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1850.0028.860.00-0.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.180.0032.86-0.00-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.000.180.0051.62-0.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1650.0036.810.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.000.1566.6751.360.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.150.0026.04-0.00-0.07
FIUCUSA0.000.15100.0043.610.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1533.3333.43-0.00-0.05
KentuckySEC0.000.15100.0086.080.000.11
Notre DameACC0.000.15100.0069.430.000.06
LafayettePat0.000.1566.6762.890.000.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1533.3334.47-0.00-0.05
ButlerBE0.000.15100.0054.180.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.15100.0057.560.000.02
NavyPat0.000.140.0032.22-0.00-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.120.0054.88-0.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.12100.0075.400.000.06
ManhattanMAAC0.000.120.0057.16-0.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.1266.6760.730.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1266.6745.850.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0975.0073.240.000.04
USCP120.000.0950.0026.710.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0966.6759.850.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.09100.0068.420.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0034.26-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0950.0050.390.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0966.6764.990.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0950.0063.730.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0966.6760.220.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0048.22-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0053.060.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0033.930.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0052.280.000.00
XavierBE0.000.08100.0076.430.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0650.0036.270.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.380.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.630.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0045.780.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.040.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.78-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0034.73-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.530.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.590.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0077.160.000.03
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0050.080.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0066.070.000.02
StanfordP120.000.06100.0068.290.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0054.32-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0666.6770.360.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.05-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0666.6768.330.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.060.0048.03-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0082.150.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.580.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6742.560.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6777.370.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0034.15-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.940.000.02
IowaB100.000.0650.0067.840.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0650.0021.230.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.44-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0625.0029.11-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0059.350.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3338.44-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0055.220.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6746.160.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.390.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.06100.0063.880.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.36-0.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0054.04-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.610.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0055.910.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC2.780.06100.0059.142.780.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.620.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0057.21-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.810.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0033.61-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.800.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6747.240.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.250.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0040.180.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0067.360.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0045.610.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0022.09-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.53-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0041.040.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0068.970.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0058.420.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.88-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.540.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0027.18-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0061.420.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.370.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0072.260.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0059.230.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0029.930.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0031.730.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0020.69-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3347.72-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.91-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0055.900.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0054.47-0.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
Georgia TechACC2.780.03100.0052.692.780.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.950.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6755.230.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6750.370.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.000.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
TroySB2.780.030.0046.30-2.78-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0350.0059.030.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0333.3359.35-0.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.29-0.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6752.000.000.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0074.770.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.68-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0056.300.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3335.37-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun2.780.030.0024.25-2.78-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0073.200.000.01