live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:46.5
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:208
Current SOS:205
Current Record:16-4
Expected Record:22-5
Current Conf Record:9-0
Expected Conf Record:15-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-439.342.78%
22-548.542.72%
21-660.012.73%
20-772.31.64%
19-885.70.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Vanderbilt (43.7)SECA79-72L0%0.0
11-21Western Kentucky (165.8)CUSAA67-66L0%0.0
11-24Loyola MD (245.5)PatA63-76W100%0.0
12-5Princeton (55.9)IvyH91-77W100%0.0
12-8Notre Dame (48.1)ACCA86-61L0%0.0
12-12Northeastern (141.3)CAAA75-62L0%0.0
12-17American (256.8)PatA68-86W100%0.0
12-20Hofstra (71.3)CAAH71-68W100%0.0
12-22Lehigh (227.5)PatA62-75W100%0.0
12-28NJIT (192.1)ASunA61-83W100%0.0
1-2Columbia (134.4)IvyH69-60W100%0.0
1-6Binghamton (303.8)AEA52-62W100%0.0
1-9UMass Lowell (274.0)AEH86-59W100%0.0
1-13UMBC (324.6)AEH86-74W100%0.0
1-16New Hampshire (205.6)AEA50-80W100%0.0
1-18Hartford (313.9)AEA43-77W100%0.0
1-22Albany (97.0)AEH69-63W100%0.0
1-25Maine (289.9)AEH81-54W100%0.0
1-30Vermont (145.3)AEA61-72W100%0.0
2-3Binghamton (303.8)AEH76-51W100%0.0
2-6UMass Lowell (274.0)AEA0-094%16.8
2-8Hartford (313.9)AEH0-099%25.9
2-11UMBC (324.6)AEA0-093%16.3
2-14New Hampshire (205.6)AEH0-096%19.6
2-17Albany (97.0)AEA0-060%2.8
2-21Maine (289.9)AEA0-095%18.4
2-27Vermont (145.3)AEH0-088%13.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE26.2826.3786.9688.3319.4220.21
UMBCAE3.124.6621.7426.51-1.77-2.19
UMass LowellAE3.124.6535.0035.17-0.94-1.38
AlbanyAE3.064.6377.2778.941.672.68
VermontAE3.074.6359.0962.130.561.12
New HampshireAE3.004.6155.5655.480.330.51
HartfordAE3.024.5927.2728.33-1.37-1.99
BinghamtonAE5.404.5925.0028.13-2.70-2.01
MaineAE3.014.5938.1038.04-0.72-1.10
NJITASun2.732.0754.5556.460.250.27
AmericanPat2.692.0533.3333.88-0.90-0.66
Loyola MDPat2.732.0433.3335.59-0.91-0.59
LehighPat2.732.0131.5837.47-1.01-0.50
ColumbiaIvy2.621.9968.4266.610.960.66
NortheasternCAA2.611.9845.4546.92-0.24-0.12
Notre DameACC2.561.9266.6762.470.850.48
PrincetonIvy2.501.9275.0077.371.251.05
HofstraCAA2.551.9171.4367.751.090.68
VanderbiltSEC2.501.8557.1461.490.360.43
Western KentuckyCUSA2.501.8545.0046.10-0.25-0.14
Boston UniversityPat0.640.5252.1754.400.030.05
Holy CrossPat0.410.4540.9139.70-0.07-0.09
ColgatePat0.520.4542.8643.53-0.07-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.290.3933.3332.01-0.10-0.14
YaleIvy0.420.3872.2273.760.180.18
CornellIvy0.350.3244.4441.14-0.04-0.06
ArmyPat0.350.3254.5556.020.030.04
BrownIvy0.200.2633.3331.83-0.07-0.10
BucknellPat0.370.2652.3856.770.020.04
Boston CollegeACC0.300.2631.8226.61-0.11-0.12
NavyPat0.230.2665.2265.230.070.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.2613.6413.80-0.21-0.19
St. Francis PANEC0.400.2547.6249.35-0.02-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.220.2538.1037.53-0.05-0.06
LafayettePat0.300.2323.8125.26-0.16-0.11
HarvardIvy0.240.2336.8441.45-0.06-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.340.2241.6746.85-0.06-0.01
TowsonCAA0.220.2263.6457.330.060.03
ConnecticutAmer0.180.2072.7372.440.080.09
PennIvy0.190.2035.2934.69-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.280.1970.0069.070.110.07
SienaMAAC0.220.1966.6767.290.070.06
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1925.0025.48-0.08-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.1650.0050.860.000.00
WagnerNEC0.170.1661.9063.360.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1631.8235.16-0.06-0.05
DelawareCAA0.230.1622.7323.64-0.12-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.170.1619.0522.35-0.11-0.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1634.7841.59-0.05-0.03
KentuckySEC0.170.1572.7369.690.080.06
Wake ForestACC0.170.1545.4542.14-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.180.1366.6763.480.060.04
LipscombASun0.240.1321.7427.64-0.13-0.06
Miami FLACC0.180.1380.9575.640.110.07
PurdueB100.170.1382.6178.230.110.07
BuffaloMAC0.170.1357.1457.510.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1361.9059.930.030.02
DrexelCAA0.110.1314.2918.63-0.08-0.08
ElonCAA0.220.1354.5553.020.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1369.5768.670.040.05
North FloridaASun0.110.1368.1869.350.040.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1375.0071.280.060.05
William & MaryCAA0.170.1370.0069.360.070.05
LouisvilleACC0.110.1281.8277.490.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1227.2732.84-0.08-0.04
MaristMAAC0.110.1219.0521.40-0.07-0.07
St. John'sBE0.160.1227.2724.41-0.07-0.06
FloridaSEC0.110.1268.1867.800.040.04
RiderMAAC0.130.1041.6743.51-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1038.1041.92-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.170.1042.8645.93-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.0923.8128.31-0.09-0.04
Michigan St.B100.170.0982.6181.380.110.06
ProvidenceBE0.110.0978.2671.960.060.04
South FloridaAmer0.110.0920.8320.11-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.170.0945.0044.39-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.110.0966.6758.760.040.02
HowardMEAC0.110.0940.0042.53-0.02-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.55-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.0726.0927.58-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0790.4885.550.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.120.0741.6743.85-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.0760.0061.350.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.0725.0029.52-0.06-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0781.8277.440.090.04
RutgersB100.060.0722.7320.68-0.03-0.04
LibertyBSth0.130.0731.8232.92-0.05-0.02
SyracuseACC0.120.0766.6762.710.040.02
VirginiaACC0.120.0781.8276.020.080.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0636.3642.19-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.120.0652.1752.980.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0645.0049.60-0.01-0.00
FordhamA100.060.0657.8954.300.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.0654.5555.310.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.6247.86-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0622.7324.28-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0665.2256.530.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0647.8350.56-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.0068.920.020.02
OaklandHorz0.110.0666.6767.310.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0654.5561.950.010.02
StetsonASun0.050.0625.0029.75-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0681.8278.320.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.0623.8125.03-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0668.1863.250.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.0631.8233.75-0.04-0.02
KansasB120.110.0680.9577.000.070.03
LSUSEC0.110.0663.6459.440.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0685.7176.030.080.03
WoffordSC0.120.0638.1043.35-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0638.8943.22-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0654.5552.750.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0638.1033.38-0.01-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0640.0049.74-0.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.110.0657.1452.310.020.00
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0635.0036.57-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0642.8637.19-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0655.0048.870.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0631.5836.16-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0630.0029.98-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0048.260.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0681.8281.010.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0352.3853.820.000.00
MarylandB100.070.0386.9681.770.050.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0338.1047.51-0.02-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0335.2944.50-0.02-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0327.2730.43-0.03-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0369.5770.030.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0350.0050.510.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0322.7324.85-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0359.0955.550.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
La SalleA100.060.0321.0520.91-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0072.220.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0345.0043.19-0.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0330.0029.46-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0354.5555.990.010.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0325.0028.19-0.03-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3333.64-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0365.0060.810.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0314.2913.97-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.060.0377.2776.780.030.02
XavierBE0.060.0390.9184.430.050.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0363.6462.340.000.01
DukeACC0.060.0372.7369.920.030.01
IllinoisB100.060.0347.8344.51-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.060.0382.6177.370.040.02
IowaB100.060.0381.8279.900.040.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0340.9139.22-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0328.5728.88-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0361.9062.050.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0379.1780.770.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0386.3680.660.000.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0380.0070.290.030.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0352.1747.250.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0350.0054.850.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0376.1967.350.030.01
DaytonA100.060.0385.7181.220.040.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.080.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.050.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0342.8641.75-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0336.3630.98-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.060.0368.1861.780.020.01