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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:252.2
Current RPI:281
Expected SOS:269
Current SOS:266
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9118.20.04%
19-10131.20.21%
18-11152.90.83%
17-12168.02.15%
16-13187.94.81%
15-14207.09.25%
14-15226.414.38%
13-16245.617.66%
12-17263.618.60%
11-18280.615.01%
10-19295.09.39%
9-20307.94.79%
8-21318.82.04%
7-22326.40.71%
6-23334.40.11%
5-24339.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Columbia (246.3)IvyH66-73L0%0.0
11-20Boston College (233.5)ACCA82-75L0%0.0
11-22Maryland (87.4)B10A77-63L0%0.0
11-25Towson (154.9)CAAA88-63L0%0.0
11-26Hampton (312.6)MEACN66-76W100%0.0
11-30Loyola MD (202.1)PatH70-71L0%0.0
12-3Northeastern (190.9)CAAH77-75W100%0.0
12-6Lehigh (107.9)PatH62-57W100%0.0
12-10Rutgers (138.5)B10H0-027%-7.3
12-13Hofstra (221.4)CAAA0-032%-5.5
12-17St. Francis PA (279.1)NECA0-046%-1.2
12-28NJIT (186.5)ASunH0-047%-0.8
12-31Brown (264.6)IvyA0-040%-3.1
1-5New Hampshire (127.0)AEA0-025%-8.1
1-8Albany (149.0)AEH0-040%-3.2
1-14Maine (315.8)AEA0-061%3.3
1-16UMass Lowell (280.6)AEA0-045%-1.5
1-19Hartford (325.7)AEH0-077%8.7
1-22Binghamton (260.2)AEA0-048%-0.6
1-25UMBC (208.3)AEH0-055%1.6
1-28Vermont (84.2)AEH0-027%-7.4
2-1New Hampshire (127.0)AEH0-044%-1.8
2-4Albany (149.0)AEA0-022%-9.4
2-6UMass Lowell (280.6)AEH0-065%4.7
2-12Maine (315.8)AEH0-079%9.5
2-15Hartford (325.7)AEA0-058%2.4
2-18Binghamton (260.2)AEH0-068%5.6
2-22UMBC (208.3)AEA0-035%-4.7
2-25Vermont (84.2)AEA0-013%-13.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE28.3626.3432.3542.57-10.01-3.92
MaineAE0.354.3814.2922.91-0.25-2.37
AlbanyAE0.004.3542.8660.03-0.000.87
UMass LowellAE0.004.3420.0034.46-0.00-1.35
HartfordAE0.004.3422.2226.01-0.00-2.08
VermontAE0.004.3462.5070.770.001.80
BinghamtonAE0.004.3450.0042.810.00-0.62
UMBCAE0.004.3080.0054.120.000.35
New HampshireAE0.004.2762.5061.850.001.01
TowsonCAA7.091.9933.3352.21-2.360.09
NortheasternCAA6.251.9550.0044.750.00-0.21
BrownIvy0.001.9450.0043.170.00-0.26
Loyola MDPat6.251.9333.3343.85-2.08-0.24
HofstraCAA0.451.9355.5643.040.05-0.27
ColumbiaIvy6.251.9333.3341.53-2.08-0.33
St. Francis PANEC0.001.8533.3339.87-0.00-0.37
NJITASun0.001.8444.4451.54-0.000.06
RutgersB100.001.8487.5049.460.00-0.02
LehighPat6.251.8242.8664.10-0.890.51
MarylandB106.701.8185.7157.624.780.28
Boston CollegeACC6.701.8150.0027.420.00-0.82
HamptonMEAC6.251.7216.6744.42-4.17-0.19
DartmouthIvy0.450.390.0020.72-0.45-0.23
Boston UniversityPat0.690.3642.8655.07-0.100.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.3528.5727.38-0.00-0.16
CornellIvy0.350.3328.5730.43-0.15-0.13
YaleIvy0.390.3342.8663.63-0.060.09
ColgatePat0.450.3112.5030.11-0.33-0.12
Holy CrossPat0.000.3037.5047.44-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.790.2962.5052.400.200.01
NavyPat0.000.2833.3338.56-0.00-0.06
DrexelCAA0.000.2650.0041.460.00-0.04
AmericanPat0.390.2512.5028.64-0.29-0.11
HarvardIvy0.350.2433.3349.39-0.12-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.2477.7859.940.000.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.2412.5030.17-0.00-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.450.2328.5737.54-0.19-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2344.4438.15-0.00-0.05
ArmyPat0.450.2242.8650.29-0.060.00
William & MaryCAA0.450.2033.3346.06-0.15-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.2044.4434.60-0.00-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.390.1920.0060.00-0.230.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.1911.1149.12-0.35-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1885.7162.500.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1766.6761.690.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.1750.0041.700.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1762.5054.660.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1783.3377.290.000.09
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1612.5037.11-0.00-0.04
BryantNEC0.000.1622.2246.51-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.1542.8635.40-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC1.280.1530.0045.49-0.51-0.01
RichmondA101.280.1550.0048.500.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1512.5026.05-0.00-0.07
Penn St.B100.000.1466.6746.170.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1433.3350.05-0.000.00
PennIvy0.000.1333.3356.66-0.000.02
DuquesneA100.450.1340.0039.19-0.09-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1325.0030.02-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.450.120.0034.54-0.45-0.04
BucknellPat0.000.1270.0070.530.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1257.1471.170.000.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.1225.0041.19-0.22-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1216.6739.99-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.1228.5752.65-0.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1288.8966.920.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1225.0035.75-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.1187.5074.510.000.06
IowaB100.000.1144.4438.41-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.1050.0071.340.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.0975.0064.820.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6743.53-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0017.16-0.00-0.06
Miami FLACC0.000.0977.7866.740.000.03
Kansas St.B121.280.0988.8956.711.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0987.5082.440.000.06
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0021.92-0.00-0.05
PurdueB100.000.0977.7877.640.000.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0916.6730.09-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.450.0957.1450.790.060.00
Notre DameACC0.450.09100.0076.970.450.05
IllinoisB100.000.0966.6751.140.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0960.0058.780.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0066.090.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0977.7862.010.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0977.7876.550.000.05
DukeACC0.000.0990.0080.060.000.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.0833.3331.35-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.81-0.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
Seton HallBE0.450.0675.0054.480.220.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2935.05-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0611.1132.47-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.49-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0644.4436.20-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0026.46-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0072.930.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.540.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.350.0657.1454.200.050.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0070.350.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.450.0662.5055.890.110.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.03-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.830.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0637.5044.42-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.080.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.24-0.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0675.0075.180.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5746.79-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.170.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0677.7865.840.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.830.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.180.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.390.0675.0048.980.20-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4362.990.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0662.5062.080.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0677.7855.180.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.450.0342.8645.34-0.06-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.450.0370.0050.010.180.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3351.98-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.390.0375.0066.120.200.01
CreightonBE0.450.03100.0076.540.450.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0061.350.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.77-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.390.0357.1456.540.060.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.390.0375.0047.520.20-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6770.400.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4365.470.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.8650.57-0.000.00
XavierBE0.390.0387.5070.880.290.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0337.5025.74-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0362.5050.630.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.350.0342.8644.90-0.05-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0371.4337.680.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
George MasonA100.450.0362.5046.490.11-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.390.0355.5647.600.04-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2232.01-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.390.0371.4354.010.170.00
Old DominionCUSA0.450.0362.5066.500.110.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.860.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8967.470.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0342.8637.05-0.06-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02