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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:185.8
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:95
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:201
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-751.00.01%
21-859.00.06%
20-971.30.21%
19-1086.01.22%
18-11102.82.80%
17-12121.35.83%
16-13140.310.70%
15-14160.715.18%
14-15180.517.89%
13-16201.417.24%
12-17220.613.42%
11-18237.88.52%
10-19256.24.23%
9-20272.31.70%
8-21288.60.76%
7-22292.40.20%
6-23318.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Maryland (25.7)B10N61-76L0%0.0
11-14Connecticut (68.1)AmerA72-64L0%0.0
11-17Ball St. (158.5)MACA87-76L0%0.0
11-19Michigan St. (23.7)B10A0-02%-23.7
11-22Brown (278.2)IvyH0-074%7.8
11-26Bucknell (96.6)PatH0-038%-3.6
12-2St. Francis PA (160.7)NECH0-059%2.9
12-4LIU Brooklyn (288.5)NECA0-060%3.0
12-7Columbia (192.2)IvyA0-036%-4.5
12-12Hofstra (120.6)CAAH0-048%-0.7
12-17Providence (42.3)BEA0-06%-18.5
12-22Rutgers (181.4)B10A0-025%-8.1
12-30Norfolk St. (285.6)MEACH0-081%10.6
1-3Maine (337.2)AEH0-093%17.7
1-6Hartford (333.1)AEA0-077%8.8
1-10Albany (93.1)AEA0-024%-8.6
1-13Vermont (75.8)AEA0-016%-11.8
1-18Binghamton (282.5)AEH0-078%9.3
1-21New Hampshire (216.5)AEA0-046%-1.1
1-24UMass Lowell (285.2)AEA0-060%3.2
1-27Albany (93.1)AEH0-041%-2.6
1-31UMBC (173.3)AEH0-060%3.1
2-3Hartford (333.1)AEH0-089%14.8
2-8UMass Lowell (285.2)AEH0-078%9.2
2-11Maine (337.2)AEA0-084%11.7
2-15Binghamton (282.5)AEA0-061%3.3
2-18New Hampshire (216.5)AEH0-066%4.9
2-21UMBC (173.3)AEA0-040%-2.9
2-24Vermont (75.8)AEH0-031%-5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE34.0326.370.0048.63-34.03-0.72
HartfordAE0.004.3933.3327.130.00-2.01
UMass LowellAE0.004.3750.0043.640.00-0.56
AlbanyAE0.004.34100.0072.870.001.99
MaineAE0.004.340.0013.580.00-3.16
VermontAE0.004.3466.6773.970.002.08
BinghamtonAE0.004.3325.0038.660.00-0.98
UMBCAE0.004.320.0053.160.000.27
New HampshireAE0.004.300.0048.430.00-0.13
LIU BrooklynNEC0.002.0625.0045.930.00-0.17
ColumbiaIvy0.001.9433.3349.780.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.001.91100.0039.810.00-0.39
MarylandB1016.671.91100.0070.7316.670.79
RutgersB100.001.87100.0045.910.00-0.15
BucknellPat2.081.840.0061.45-2.080.42
Michigan St.B100.001.8450.0077.110.001.00
St. Francis PANEC0.001.7833.3360.410.000.37
ConnecticutAmer16.671.76100.0054.8116.670.17
ProvidenceBE0.001.7675.0063.590.000.48
Ball St.MAC16.671.750.0043.66-16.67-0.22
HofstraCAA0.001.7275.0056.260.000.22
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.720.0043.740.00-0.22
DartmouthIvy0.000.370.0033.700.00-0.12
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.3725.0040.490.00-0.07
BryantNEC0.000.360.0030.230.00-0.14
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.330.0037.310.00-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.000.330.0047.690.00-0.02
ColgatePat4.170.3050.0050.310.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.2633.3334.680.00-0.08
YaleIvy0.000.2525.0054.930.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.2550.0053.620.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2525.0032.490.00-0.09
WagnerNEC0.000.2466.6749.940.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.21100.0060.400.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.1933.3354.200.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1875.0045.290.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.180.0044.950.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1866.6766.970.000.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.180.0038.210.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.180.0037.060.00-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.000.17100.0048.790.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.160.0021.590.00-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0022.840.00-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.150.0030.910.00-0.06
NJITASun0.000.1533.3333.210.00-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.150.0036.070.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1575.0055.040.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1550.0042.160.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.15100.0082.960.000.10
AmericanPat0.000.150.0030.350.00-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.1550.0049.480.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.15100.0059.240.000.03
PurdueB100.000.15100.0085.360.000.10
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1566.6759.740.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.15100.0066.010.000.05
PennIvy0.000.1333.3349.350.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.130.0051.010.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.1350.0066.710.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1250.0051.840.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1225.0047.800.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.1233.3336.170.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1266.6755.210.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1233.3341.220.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.12100.0061.710.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.12100.0058.070.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1250.0050.670.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.12100.0039.920.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1266.6740.070.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0059.870.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.12100.0071.700.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1250.0050.870.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.10100.0083.700.000.06
SMUAmer0.000.10100.0076.260.000.05
MaristMAAC0.000.090.0023.830.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0933.3335.150.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0025.140.00-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0966.6754.900.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0066.990.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0966.6759.540.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0950.0054.450.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0950.0052.870.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0933.3334.490.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.09100.0058.250.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0966.6751.580.000.00
RichmondA100.000.090.0030.280.00-0.03
ButlerBE2.080.0975.0052.361.040.00
DePaulBE0.000.0933.3331.290.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0067.950.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.007.670.00-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.07100.0070.960.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.070.0017.060.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6768.790.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0633.3339.360.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0031.810.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0633.3345.780.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0063.830.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0050.190.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0650.0073.230.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.080.060.0028.77-2.08-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
DaytonA102.780.0666.6762.150.930.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0082.350.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.060.0024.970.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.060.0029.710.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.06100.0082.290.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0073.730.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0625.0059.770.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.060.0021.970.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6756.400.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.030.0037.050.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.03100.0057.270.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.030.0032.200.00-0.01
OklahomaB122.780.03100.0060.072.780.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0333.3348.640.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00