Stony Brook

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	152.0
Current RPI:	152
Expected SOS:	324
Current SOS:	324
Current Record:	21-9
Expected Record:	21-9
Current Conf Record:	16-3
Expected Conf Record:	16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-3
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	239
Expected OOC SOS:	281

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-9	152.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Indiana (17.0)	B10	A	96-66	L	0%
11-15	Sacred Heart (237.0)	NEC	A	74-63	L	0%
11-22	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	H	67-53	W	100%
11-25	Northwestern (63.0)	B10	A	63-58	L	0%
12-3	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	A	72-69	L	0%
12-7	Fairleigh Dickinson (330.0)	NEC	H	70-46	W	100%
12-11	Boston College (244.0)	ACC	A	66-51	L	0%
12-17	Rutgers (163.0)	BE	N	58-67	L	0%
12-28	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	H	68-59	W	100%
12-30	Rider (199.0)	MAAC	H	79-62	W	100%
1-2	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	65-59	W	100%
1-5	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	A	54-60	W	100%
1-8	Albany (215.0)	AE	H	81-68	W	100%
1-11	MD Baltimore County (339.0)	AE	A	49-89	W	100%
1-14	Boston University (190.0)	AE	A	61-55	L	0%
1-16	New Hampshire (296.0)	AE	H	61-52	W	100%
1-21	Maine (282.0)	AE	A	52-58	W	100%
1-25	Hartford (307.0)	AE	H	60-37	W	100%
1-27	Boston University (190.0)	AE	H	66-57	W	100%
2-1	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	H	82-48	W	100%
2-4	Albany (215.0)	AE	A	69-76	W	100%
2-6	New Hampshire (296.0)	AE	A	48-57	W	100%
2-9	MD Baltimore County (339.0)	AE	H	80-68	W	100%
2-12	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	68-49	L	0%
2-18	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	A	69-76	W	100%
2-21	Hartford (307.0)	AE	A	50-74	W	100%
2-26	Maine (282.0)	AE	H	55-48	W	100%
3-3	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	N	78-69	W	100%
3-4	Albany (215.0)	AE	N	57-55	W	100%
3-10	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	43-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stony Brook	AE	26.55	26.55	74.22	74.22	12.86	12.86
Vermont	AE	6.04	6.04	67.74	67.74	2.14	2.14
Albany	AE	6.01	6.01	63.33	63.33	1.60	1.60
Binghamton	AE	5.95	5.95	7.14	7.14	-5.10	-5.10
MD Baltimore County	AE	4.40	4.40	14.29	14.29	-3.14	-3.14
Hartford	AE	4.40	4.40	31.03	31.03	-1.67	-1.67
Boston University	AE	4.39	4.39	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	4.37	4.37	42.31	42.31	-0.67	-0.67
New Hampshire	AE	4.36	4.36	46.15	46.15	-0.34	-0.34
Cornell	Ivy	1.93	1.93	42.31	42.31	-0.30	-0.30
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.87	1.87	10.71	10.71	-1.47	-1.47
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.86	1.86	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.81	1.81	34.62	34.62	-0.56	-0.56
Boston College	ACC	1.80	1.80	26.67	26.67	-0.84	-0.84
Rider	MAAC	1.80	1.80	41.94	41.94	-0.29	-0.29
Northeastern	CAA	1.79	1.79	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Columbia	Ivy	1.76	1.76	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
Indiana	B10	1.75	1.75	75.00	75.00	0.87	0.87
Rutgers	BE	1.75	1.75	41.94	41.94	-0.28	-0.28
Northwestern	B10	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Brown	Ivy	0.40	0.40	23.33	23.33	-0.21	-0.21
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.36	0.36	13.79	13.79	-0.26	-0.26
Marist	MAAC	0.33	0.33	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.27	0.27	65.38	65.38	0.08	0.08
Harvard	Ivy	0.27	0.27	86.21	86.21	0.20	0.20
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.26	0.26	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.26	0.26	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.25	0.25	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
Towson	CAA	0.24	0.24	3.12	3.12	-0.23	-0.23
Penn St.	B10	0.24	0.24	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.24	0.24	75.76	75.76	0.12	0.12
Niagara	MAAC	0.23	0.23	42.42	42.42	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.22	0.22	75.00	75.00	0.11	0.11
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.22	0.22	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.22	0.22	16.13	16.13	-0.15	-0.15
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.21	0.21	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
Monmouth	NEC	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.20	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.19	0.19	16.67	16.67	-0.13	-0.13
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	0.19	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Notre Dame	BE	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
La Salle	A10	0.16	0.16	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Fairfield	MAAC	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
American	Pat	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	96.43	96.43	0.06	0.06
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01