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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:176.0
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:239
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:248
Expected OOC SOS:265



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13176.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Columbia (262.0)IvyH66-73L0%0.0
11-20Boston College (219.0)ACCA82-75L0%0.0
11-22Maryland (36.0)B10A77-63L0%0.0
11-25Towson (88.0)CAAA88-63L0%0.0
11-26Hampton (283.0)MEACN66-76W100%0.0
11-30Loyola MD (212.0)PatH70-71L0%0.0
12-3Northeastern (136.0)CAAH77-75W100%0.0
12-6Lehigh (97.0)PatH62-57W100%0.0
12-10Rutgers (177.0)B10H66-71L0%0.0
12-13Hofstra (196.0)CAAA96-58L0%0.0
12-17St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA63-75W100%0.0
12-28NJIT (290.0)ASunH61-64L0%0.0
12-31Brown (284.0)IvyA89-92W100%0.0
1-5New Hampshire (127.0)AEA56-59W100%0.0
1-8Albany (129.0)AEH72-70W100%0.0
1-14Maine (322.0)AEA54-74W100%0.0
1-16UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA75-86W100%0.0
1-19Hartford (327.0)AEH80-64W100%0.0
1-22Binghamton (311.0)AEA71-67L0%0.0
1-25UMBC (165.0)AEH83-73W100%0.0
1-28Vermont (46.0)AEH64-71L0%0.0
2-1New Hampshire (127.0)AEH64-61W100%0.0
2-4Albany (129.0)AEA65-72W100%0.0
2-6UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH83-72W100%0.0
2-12Maine (322.0)AEH67-66W100%0.0
2-15Hartford (327.0)AEA54-66W100%0.0
2-18Binghamton (311.0)AEH76-55W100%0.0
2-22UMBC (165.0)AEA65-52L0%0.0
2-25Vermont (46.0)AEA66-51L0%0.0
3-1Binghamton (311.0)AEH70-60W100%0.0
3-6Albany (129.0)AEH56-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE26.4626.4657.1457.143.783.78
AlbanyAE5.805.8063.3363.331.551.55
BinghamtonAE5.675.6730.7730.77-2.18-2.18
VermontAE4.314.3183.8783.872.922.92
MaineAE4.214.2120.6920.69-2.47-2.47
HartfordAE4.204.2030.0030.00-1.68-1.68
New HampshireAE4.174.1762.9662.961.081.08
UMBCAE4.144.1457.6957.690.640.64
UMass LowellAE4.124.1235.7135.71-1.18-1.18
TowsonCAA1.881.8858.0658.060.300.30
NortheasternCAA1.841.8450.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy1.831.8340.7440.74-0.34-0.34
Loyola MDPat1.831.8344.8344.83-0.19-0.19
ColumbiaIvy1.821.8236.0036.00-0.51-0.51
HofstraCAA1.801.8043.3343.33-0.24-0.24
St. Francis PANEC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun1.721.7228.5728.57-0.74-0.74
RutgersB101.721.7241.9441.94-0.28-0.28
LehighPat1.691.6963.3363.330.450.45
Boston CollegeACC1.691.6925.8125.81-0.82-0.82
MarylandB101.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
HamptonMEAC1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Boston UniversityPat0.370.3754.8454.840.040.04
CornellIvy0.360.3625.0025.00-0.18-0.18
DartmouthIvy0.350.3525.9325.93-0.17-0.17
ColgatePat0.350.3529.0329.03-0.15-0.15
Central ConnecticutNEC0.350.3520.6920.69-0.20-0.20
YaleIvy0.320.3260.7160.710.070.07
Holy CrossPat0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.260.2661.2961.290.060.06
NavyPat0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.230.2325.8125.81-0.11-0.11
ArmyPat0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.220.2261.5461.540.050.05
AmericanPat0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
James MadisonCAA0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.2140.6240.62-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1955.8855.880.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
DelawareCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
PrincetonIvy0.170.1778.5778.570.100.10
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
BryantNEC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
ElonCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1584.3884.380.110.11
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1510.0010.00-0.12-0.12
Penn St.B100.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1476.6776.670.070.07
RichmondA100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
WagnerNEC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
NorthwesternB100.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
PennIvy0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01