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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:59.0
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:198
Current SOS:198
Current Record:24-6
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:17-2
Expected Conf Record:17-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-659.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA79-72L0%0.0
11-21Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA67-66L0%0.0
11-24Loyola MD (255.0)PatA63-76W100%0.0
12-5Princeton (39.0)IvyH91-77W100%0.0
12-8Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA86-61L0%0.0
12-12Northeastern (109.0)CAAA75-62L0%0.0
12-17American (231.0)PatA68-86W100%0.0
12-20Hofstra (54.0)CAAH71-68W100%0.0
12-22Lehigh (168.0)PatA62-75W100%0.0
12-28NJIT (207.0)ASunA61-83W100%0.0
1-2Columbia (132.0)IvyH69-60W100%0.0
1-6Binghamton (299.0)AEA52-62W100%0.0
1-9UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH86-59W100%0.0
1-13UMBC (335.0)AEH86-74W100%0.0
1-16New Hampshire (177.0)AEA50-80W100%0.0
1-18Hartford (292.0)AEA43-77W100%0.0
1-22Albany (107.0)AEH69-63W100%0.0
1-25Maine (317.0)AEH81-54W100%0.0
1-30Vermont (126.0)AEA61-72W100%0.0
2-3Binghamton (299.0)AEH76-51W100%0.0
2-6UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA73-91W100%0.0
2-8Hartford (292.0)AEH85-72W100%0.0
2-11UMBC (335.0)AEA52-75W100%0.0
2-14New Hampshire (177.0)AEH59-58W100%0.0
2-17Albany (107.0)AEA82-70L0%0.0
2-21Maine (317.0)AEA56-75W100%0.0
2-27Vermont (126.0)AEH62-76L0%0.0
3-2UMBC (335.0)AEH86-76W100%0.0
3-7Hartford (292.0)AEH80-64W100%0.0
3-12Vermont (126.0)AEH80-74W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE26.5626.5684.0684.0618.0918.09
VermontAE6.026.0263.3363.331.601.60
UMBCAE5.935.9324.1424.14-3.07-3.07
HartfordAE5.935.9331.0331.03-2.25-2.25
New HampshireAE4.404.4062.9662.961.141.14
AlbanyAE4.364.3675.8675.862.252.25
MaineAE4.334.3328.5728.57-1.85-1.85
BinghamtonAE4.314.3128.5728.57-1.85-1.85
UMass LowellAE4.304.3038.4638.46-0.99-0.99
NJITASun1.891.8955.1755.170.200.20
AmericanPat1.861.8640.0040.00-0.37-0.37
Loyola MDPat1.851.8531.0331.03-0.70-0.70
LehighPat1.831.8353.3353.330.120.12
NortheasternCAA1.791.7951.6151.610.060.06
ColumbiaIvy1.781.7867.8667.860.640.64
Notre DameACC1.731.7364.5264.520.500.50
PrincetonIvy1.721.7280.7780.771.061.06
HofstraCAA1.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
VanderbiltSEC1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
Western KentuckyCUSA1.671.6748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.470.4754.8454.840.050.05
Holy CrossPat0.460.4642.4242.42-0.07-0.07
ColgatePat0.410.4141.3841.38-0.07-0.07
DartmouthIvy0.390.3933.3333.33-0.13-0.13
YaleIvy0.380.3877.7877.780.210.21
CornellIvy0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
ArmyPat0.270.2758.0658.060.040.04
NavyPat0.270.2756.2556.250.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.260.2630.0030.00-0.11-0.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2513.7913.79-0.18-0.18
TowsonCAA0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
BrownIvy0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
Boston CollegeACC0.220.2221.8821.88-0.13-0.13
BucknellPat0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
LafayettePat0.220.2220.0020.00-0.13-0.13
HarvardIvy0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.210.2121.8821.88-0.12-0.12
St. BonaventureA100.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
SienaMAAC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
PennIvy0.170.1737.0437.04-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1676.6776.670.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.130.1363.3363.330.040.04
KentuckySEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
DelawareCAA0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
St. John'sBE0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
DrexelCAA0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
MaristMAAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
FloridaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
NorthwesternB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
RiderMAAC0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0679.4179.410.040.04
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02