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Through games of Jan 30, 2015.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:98.7
Current RPI:94
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:149
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:52
Expected OOC SOS:31



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-873.410.07%
20-986.428.71%
19-10100.135.16%
18-11114.919.50%
17-12132.75.59%
16-13152.20.90%
15-14174.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Columbia (148.5)IvyH57-56W100%0.0
11-18Georgia (32.8)SECA80-70L0%0.0
11-21Hofstra (134.9)CAAA66-65L0%0.0
11-25Western Kentucky (83.3)CUSAH71-61W100%0.0
11-27LIU Brooklyn (270.5)NECN73-54W100%0.0
12-2Cincinnati (26.0)AmerA78-52L0%0.0
12-6Princeton (238.2)IvyA77-64L0%0.0
12-13Providence (29.0)BEA79-61L0%0.0
12-18Canisius (127.2)MAACA60-59L0%0.0
12-21Loyola MD (266.1)PatH67-52W100%0.0
12-23American (141.5)PatH59-47W100%0.0
12-28Washington (69.1)P12A57-62W100%0.0
1-3New Hampshire (231.3)AEH71-61W100%0.0
1-6Columbia (148.5)IvyA61-70W100%0.0
1-10Vermont (197.8)AEA71-57L0%0.0
1-14UMBC (338.3)AEH64-54W100%0.0
1-17Maine (333.8)AEA39-82W100%0.0
1-19Albany (136.2)AEH47-64L0%0.0
1-22UMass Lowell (254.3)AEA45-65W100%0.0
1-25Binghamton (332.3)AEA54-61W100%0.0
1-28Hartford (232.3)AEH72-66W100%0.0
1-31New Hampshire (231.3)AEA0-062%3.2
2-7Vermont (197.8)AEH0-070%5.6
2-11UMBC (338.3)AEA0-087%12.5
2-14Maine (333.8)AEH0-098%21.7
2-17Albany (136.2)AEA0-045%-1.3
2-21Binghamton (332.3)AEH0-096%19.3
2-25UMass Lowell (254.3)AEH0-090%14.1
2-28Hartford (232.3)AEA0-067%4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE26.4326.4268.5471.729.8011.48
New HampshireAE2.914.3555.5656.350.320.55
MaineAE2.854.3310.0013.03-2.28-3.20
UMBCAE2.854.3315.0017.80-2.00-2.79
AlbanyAE2.854.3363.1666.970.751.47
BinghamtonAE2.854.3310.0016.09-2.28-2.94
VermontAE2.854.3347.3755.11-0.150.44
HartfordAE2.794.3052.6353.250.150.28
UMass LowellAE2.794.3042.1144.19-0.44-0.50
ColumbiaIvy4.933.5957.1457.780.700.56
LIU BrooklynNEC2.621.9442.1140.29-0.41-0.38
Loyola MDPat2.641.9042.1136.97-0.42-0.50
PrincetonIvy2.381.8537.5039.45-0.60-0.39
AmericanPat2.591.8555.0055.890.260.22
ProvidenceBE2.501.8475.0064.921.250.55
HofstraCAA2.591.8261.9067.290.620.63
CanisiusMAAC2.441.7957.8962.190.390.44
CincinnatiAmer2.381.7273.6872.921.130.79
GeorgiaSEC2.381.7272.2265.291.060.53
WashingtonP122.381.7273.6865.311.130.53
Western KentuckyCUSA2.381.7270.5968.470.980.64
DartmouthIvy0.300.5047.0648.55-0.02-0.01
NJITind0.410.4552.3854.400.020.04
YaleIvy0.380.4066.6766.370.130.13
BrownIvy0.240.3738.8936.84-0.05-0.10
CornellIvy0.530.3750.0049.150.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.440.3638.1043.88-0.11-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.300.3036.8441.50-0.08-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.290.3055.0055.900.030.04
WagnerNEC0.440.3031.5834.50-0.16-0.09
LehighPat0.440.3047.3750.41-0.020.00
Boston CollegeACC0.290.2747.3742.60-0.02-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.290.2738.8939.91-0.07-0.05
HarvardIvy0.130.2566.6766.780.040.08
PennIvy0.130.2537.5037.02-0.03-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.2538.1042.96-0.06-0.03
BucknellPat0.320.2452.3852.480.020.01
ArmyPat0.230.2468.4263.930.080.07
SienaMAAC0.240.2140.0037.22-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.290.2113.6414.75-0.21-0.15
NavyPat0.230.2035.0035.78-0.07-0.06
BryantNEC0.240.1847.3747.85-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1815.0019.98-0.12-0.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.1845.0049.32-0.02-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1852.6356.830.010.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.340.1531.5833.04-0.12-0.05
FIUCUSA0.190.1541.1840.94-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.240.1542.1139.33-0.04-0.03
RiderMAAC0.190.1563.6464.900.050.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1545.4547.86-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.210.15100.0098.410.210.14
Notre DameACC0.170.1590.9185.820.140.11
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1528.5728.70-0.08-0.06
LafayettePat0.190.1557.8959.800.030.03
ButlerBE0.170.1471.4370.720.070.06
Seton HallBE0.120.1470.0063.270.050.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1257.1461.690.020.03
ConnecticutAmer0.270.1257.8959.140.040.02
MinnesotaB100.190.1257.1454.290.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1250.0047.950.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.190.1265.0063.020.060.03
TowsonCAA0.060.1242.8639.21-0.01-0.02
TempleAmer0.180.1166.6763.890.060.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.0940.0040.94-0.03-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0973.6865.240.030.03
USCP120.060.0945.0039.01-0.01-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.0972.2268.790.050.03
UTEPCUSA0.200.0965.0068.720.060.03
BuffaloMAC0.120.0970.0068.410.050.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.0961.1156.080.030.01
CaliforniaP120.130.0957.1447.880.02-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.0957.1462.480.030.02
ColoradoP120.120.0955.0052.300.010.00
St. John'sBE0.120.0963.1658.070.030.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0860.0052.490.010.00
XavierBE0.060.0866.6765.800.020.03
RutgersB100.060.0645.4536.52-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0661.1156.540.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0645.0052.68-0.010.00
DuquesneA100.060.0627.7826.35-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.060.0623.5324.42-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0621.0525.57-0.04-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0677.2777.580.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0680.0079.860.040.04
Saint LouisA100.060.0642.1136.40-0.01-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0644.4452.05-0.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.0675.0073.840.060.03
AkronMAC0.060.0668.4263.700.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0673.3372.370.030.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0676.1969.570.030.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0641.1844.43-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.120.0671.4374.940.050.03
IowaB100.060.0665.0063.420.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0623.8125.53-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0620.0024.54-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0614.2916.80-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0654.5556.920.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.980.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.1838.29-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0652.3856.200.000.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0655.0055.280.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0079.220.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0655.0054.130.010.00
San Jose St.MWC0.130.060.001.50-0.13-0.06
MassachusettsA100.120.0655.0055.190.010.01
OregonP120.060.0666.6761.400.020.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0665.0059.750.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0051.270.000.00
StanfordP120.120.0675.0071.470.060.02
UtahP120.060.0678.9580.140.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.0652.6353.080.010.00
Washington St.P120.060.0645.0036.07-0.01-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0647.3738.40-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.110.0655.0053.260.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.120.0638.1045.41-0.03-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.120.0675.0075.690.060.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0627.2731.53-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.110.0645.4540.60-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0620.0022.25-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0650.0042.550.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0631.5832.46-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0633.3331.54-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0645.0042.61-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0670.0065.410.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.0037.05-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0659.0958.320.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0650.0044.440.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0665.0061.650.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0659.0956.200.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0663.6464.410.010.02
SMUAmer0.060.0680.0077.800.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0630.0031.92-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.060.0642.1139.30-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.0657.8956.380.020.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0690.0084.610.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0661.1164.980.010.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0326.3226.56-0.03-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0365.0063.630.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0376.4771.300.040.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.035.2610.51-0.06-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0385.0078.450.050.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0380.0081.590.040.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0335.2933.06-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0325.0027.87-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0323.5320.64-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0345.0049.91-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0347.0645.69-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0333.3332.70-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0358.3365.180.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0311.1116.23-0.05-0.02
LipscombASun0.070.0338.8941.90-0.02-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.070.0347.6246.49-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6758.800.020.01
Texas TechB120.060.0352.3840.080.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0330.0036.10-0.02-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.8638.97-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0363.1658.740.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0390.9188.550.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0350.0051.090.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0380.0072.650.040.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0360.0060.760.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0370.5973.360.020.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0355.0055.340.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0395.2494.650.060.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.030.006.57-0.06-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0340.0038.69-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0361.9060.280.010.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0357.1446.790.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0345.0052.61-0.010.00
LSUSEC0.060.0380.0070.880.040.01
MercerSC0.060.0350.0052.630.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0342.1134.91-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0331.5830.47-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.060.0365.0066.320.020.01
PacificWCC0.060.0336.8433.25-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0316.6717.58-0.04-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0347.0649.37-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0328.5732.24-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0363.1654.160.000.00
TroySB0.060.0329.4129.76-0.03-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0357.1455.760.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0342.1138.99-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0310.5319.78-0.04-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0355.0053.780.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0352.3845.710.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0325.0037.82-0.03-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0320.0020.72-0.03-0.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0370.0066.140.020.01
NebraskaB100.060.0360.0049.450.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0372.2277.840.030.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0378.9573.600.000.01
VCUA100.060.0385.0082.110.040.02