live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:165.0
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:328
Current SOS:328
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:20-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:189
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-10165.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Marist (250.0)MAACH71-55W100%0.0
11-13Northeastern (222.0)CAAH73-66W100%0.0
11-17Indiana (102.0)B10A90-74L0%0.0
11-22Toledo (38.0)MACN99-103L0%0.0
11-23Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAN61-67W100%0.0
11-24Detroit (230.0)HorzA102-104W100%0.0
12-1St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH68-70L0%0.0
12-4Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH77-62W100%0.0
12-7La Salle (98.0)A10N65-57L0%0.0
12-15New Hampshire (340.0)AEA48-67W100%0.0
12-19Loyola MD (274.0)PatA69-76W100%0.0
12-22Cornell (334.0)IvyH76-54W100%0.0
1-3VCU (13.0)A10A81-63L0%0.0
1-8Columbia (130.0)IvyA68-63L0%0.0
1-12Hartford (234.0)AEA50-73W100%0.0
1-15Binghamton (325.0)AEH67-47W100%0.0
1-18UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH70-65W100%0.0
1-20UMBC (327.0)AEA62-81W100%0.0
1-24Vermont (101.0)AEH67-64W100%0.0
1-26Maine (330.0)AEH79-61W100%0.0
1-29Albany (185.0)AEA77-67L0%0.0
2-1Hartford (234.0)AEH56-52W100%0.0
2-4Binghamton (325.0)AEA53-58W100%0.0
2-8New Hampshire (340.0)AEH69-73L0%0.0
2-15UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA68-78W100%0.0
2-19UMBC (327.0)AEH72-53W100%0.0
2-23Maine (330.0)AEA79-83W100%0.0
2-27Vermont (101.0)AEA69-53L0%0.0
3-2Albany (185.0)AEH73-68W100%0.0
3-8Maine (330.0)AEN80-54W100%0.0
3-9Hartford (234.0)AEN69-64W100%0.0
3-15Albany (185.0)AEH60-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE26.5626.5669.3369.3310.2710.27
HartfordAE5.655.6556.6756.670.750.75
AlbanyAE5.645.6455.1755.170.580.58
MaineAE5.525.5220.0020.00-3.31-3.31
VermontAE4.144.1467.8667.861.481.48
BinghamtonAE4.144.1425.0025.00-2.07-2.07
UMBCAE4.114.1129.6329.63-1.68-1.68
New HampshireAE4.064.0614.8114.81-2.86-2.86
UMass LowellAE4.034.0336.0036.00-1.13-1.13
ColumbiaIvy1.731.7358.6258.620.300.30
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.711.7132.1432.14-0.61-0.61
Loyola MDPat1.701.7035.7135.71-0.48-0.48
CornellIvy1.691.693.853.85-1.56-1.56
St. Francis NYNEC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
La SalleA101.661.6646.6746.67-0.11-0.11
ToledoMAC1.641.6480.6580.651.011.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
DetroitHorz1.641.6437.9337.93-0.40-0.40
VCUA101.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
NortheasternCAA1.591.5935.4835.48-0.46-0.46
IndianaB101.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
MaristMAAC1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
NJITind0.510.5136.0036.00-0.14-0.14
DartmouthIvy0.430.4338.4638.46-0.10-0.10
YaleIvy0.360.3651.8551.850.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.360.3664.5264.520.100.10
BrownIvy0.350.3551.8551.850.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.320.3259.3859.380.060.06
DuquesneA100.310.3141.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.270.2741.9441.94-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.260.2654.8454.840.030.03
George WashingtonA100.260.2675.0075.000.130.13
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2534.4834.48-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.250.2572.7372.730.110.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.2316.1316.13-0.16-0.16
NavyPat0.210.2127.5927.59-0.10-0.10
HarvardIvy0.210.2186.2186.210.150.15
ArmyPat0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
BucknellPat0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.170.1730.3030.30-0.07-0.07
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.10-0.10
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
PennIvy0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
WagnerNEC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.140.1470.3770.370.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
AmericanPat0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
LehighPat0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
LafayettePat0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00