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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Stony Brook

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:107.0
Current RPI:107
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:241
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-11107.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Columbia (196.0)IvyH57-56W100%0.0
11-18Georgia (38.0)SECA80-70L0%0.0
11-21Hofstra (174.0)CAAA66-65L0%0.0
11-25Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH71-61W100%0.0
11-27LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECN73-54W100%0.0
12-2Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA78-52L0%0.0
12-6Princeton (191.0)IvyA77-64L0%0.0
12-13Providence (22.0)BEA79-61L0%0.0
12-18Canisius (180.0)MAACA60-59L0%0.0
12-21Loyola MD (270.0)PatH67-52W100%0.0
12-23American (135.0)PatH59-47W100%0.0
12-28Washington (126.0)P12A57-62W100%0.0
1-3New Hampshire (193.0)AEH71-61W100%0.0
1-6Columbia (196.0)IvyA61-70W100%0.0
1-10Vermont (203.0)AEA71-57L0%0.0
1-14UMBC (346.0)AEH64-54W100%0.0
1-17Maine (339.0)AEA39-82W100%0.0
1-19Albany (99.0)AEH47-64L0%0.0
1-22UMass Lowell (266.0)AEA45-65W100%0.0
1-25Binghamton (332.0)AEA54-61W100%0.0
1-28Hartford (244.0)AEH72-66W100%0.0
1-31New Hampshire (193.0)AEA63-48L0%0.0
2-7Vermont (203.0)AEH48-57L0%0.0
2-11UMBC (346.0)AEA61-73W100%0.0
2-14Maine (339.0)AEH80-52W100%0.0
2-17Albany (99.0)AEA56-59W100%0.0
2-21Binghamton (332.0)AEH64-52W100%0.0
2-25UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH75-60W100%0.0
2-28Hartford (244.0)AEA59-74W100%0.0
3-4Binghamton (332.0)AEH62-57W100%0.0
3-8Vermont (203.0)AEA77-79W100%0.0
3-14Albany (99.0)AEA51-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Stony BrookAE26.6226.6271.1371.1311.2511.25
AlbanyAE5.675.6775.8675.862.932.93
VermontAE5.605.6055.5655.560.620.62
BinghamtonAE5.555.5518.5218.52-3.49-3.49
New HampshireAE4.194.1959.2659.260.780.78
UMBCAE4.124.1214.2914.29-2.94-2.94
MaineAE4.114.1110.7110.71-3.23-3.23
HartfordAE4.074.0748.1548.15-0.15-0.15
UMass LowellAE4.014.0142.3142.31-0.62-0.62
ColumbiaIvy3.253.2548.0048.00-0.13-0.13
LIU BrooklynNEC1.751.7541.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Loyola MDPat1.721.7237.9337.93-0.42-0.42
ProvidenceBE1.711.7165.6265.620.540.54
PrincetonIvy1.681.6850.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat1.671.6753.1253.120.100.10
HofstraCAA1.651.6559.3859.380.310.31
CanisiusMAAC1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
CincinnatiAmer1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
GeorgiaSEC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
WashingtonP121.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
Western KentuckyCUSA1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
DartmouthIvy0.460.4650.0050.000.000.00
NJITind0.440.4456.0056.000.050.05
YaleIvy0.400.4066.6766.670.130.13
ColgatePat0.390.3946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.360.3641.3841.38-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.330.3337.9337.93-0.08-0.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.290.2931.0331.03-0.11-0.11
Boston UniversityPat0.290.2941.3841.38-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.290.2951.7251.720.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.280.2844.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.260.2640.6240.62-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.250.2574.0774.070.120.12
PennIvy0.250.2532.1432.14-0.09-0.09
BucknellPat0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
ArmyPat0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1816.1316.13-0.12-0.12
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
LafayettePat0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
RiderMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
KentuckySEC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
ButlerBE0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Seton HallBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ColoradoP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01