Stony Brook

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	81.0
Current RPI:	81
Expected SOS:	257
Current SOS:	257
Current Record:	23-7
Expected Record:	23-7
Current Conf Record:	15-3
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	93
Expected OOC SOS:	247

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-7	81.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	57-60	W	100%
11-13	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	46-54	W	100%
11-18	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	62-64	L	0%
11-24	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	82-75	W	100%
11-25	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	A	73-62	L	0%
11-28	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	53-76	W	100%
12-1	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	66-52	W	100%
12-11	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	A	61-77	W	100%
12-18	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	A	59-64	W	100%
12-21	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	76-69	L	0%
12-28	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	60-59	L	0%
1-1	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	A	44-50	W	100%
1-5	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	65-49	W	100%
1-9	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	37-62	W	100%
1-12	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	73-59	W	100%
1-15	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	75-48	W	100%
1-18	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	81-73	L	0%
1-23	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	60-67	W	100%
1-26	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	79-69	W	100%
1-29	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	49-65	W	100%
2-2	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	54-56	W	100%
2-10	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	60-55	L	0%
2-12	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	73-47	W	100%
2-15	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	65-48	W	100%
2-19	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	83-39	W	100%
2-24	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	53-69	W	100%
2-28	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	55-71	W	100%
3-3	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	75-70	W	100%
3-9	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	N	72-49	W	100%
3-10	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	61-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stony Brook	AE	26.54	26.54	82.64	82.64	17.32	17.32
Albany	AE	5.99	5.99	74.19	74.19	2.90	2.90
Binghamton	AE	5.85	5.85	7.69	7.69	-4.95	-4.95
Vermont	AE	4.47	4.47	66.67	66.67	1.49	1.49
Hartford	AE	4.36	4.36	57.14	57.14	0.62	0.62
MD Baltimore County	AE	4.35	4.35	25.00	25.00	-2.18	-2.18
Maine	AE	4.34	4.34	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
New Hampshire	AE	4.29	4.29	30.77	30.77	-1.65	-1.65
Boston University	AE	4.27	4.27	62.96	62.96	1.11	1.11
Sacred Heart	NEC	3.44	3.44	29.63	29.63	-1.40	-1.40
Canisius	MAAC	1.99	1.99	60.00	60.00	0.40	0.40
Marist	MAAC	1.94	1.94	33.33	33.33	-0.65	-0.65
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.86	1.86	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Manhattan	MAAC	1.83	1.83	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Rider	MAAC	1.83	1.83	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Cornell	Ivy	1.81	1.81	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
Connecticut	BE	1.80	1.80	65.52	65.52	0.56	0.56
Seton Hall	BE	1.75	1.75	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.67	1.67	36.67	36.67	-0.44	-0.44
Maryland	ACC	1.67	1.67	63.64	63.64	0.45	0.45
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.49	0.49	48.39	48.39	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.45	0.45	65.62	65.62	0.14	0.14
Siena	MAAC	0.42	0.42	25.00	25.00	-0.21	-0.21
Brown	Ivy	0.42	0.42	44.44	44.44	-0.05	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.41	0.41	30.00	30.00	-0.16	-0.16
Fairfield	MAAC	0.34	0.34	55.88	55.88	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.32	0.32	59.38	59.38	0.06	0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.31	0.31	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.31	0.31	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.30	0.30	34.38	34.38	-0.09	-0.09
Bryant	NEC	0.29	0.29	63.33	63.33	0.08	0.08
Yale	Ivy	0.28	0.28	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.26	0.26	60.61	60.61	0.06	0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.25	0.25	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Long Island	NEC	0.25	0.25	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.23	0.23	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.22	0.22	29.63	29.63	-0.09	-0.09
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.22	0.22	22.58	22.58	-0.12	-0.12
Rutgers	BE	0.22	0.22	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Army	Pat	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.20	0.20	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Robert Morris	NEC	0.20	0.20	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Wagner	NEC	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	14.29	14.29	-0.12	-0.12
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Northeastern	CAA	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.16	0.16	23.33	23.33	-0.09	-0.09
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.14	0.14	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.11	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00