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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:292.0
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:133
Current SOS:133
Current Record:6-22
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-7
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:45



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22292.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Baylor (11.0)B12A76-61L0%0.0
11-18Mississippi (77.0)SECN95-88L0%0.0
11-19Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCN53-78L0%0.0
11-21Montana (221.0)BSkyN68-47L0%0.0
11-28Tulsa (134.0)AmerH65-79L0%0.0
12-1Oakland (109.0)HorzA92-64L0%0.0
12-3Michigan St. (51.0)B10A80-76L0%0.0
12-7Oklahoma (168.0)B12A92-66L0%0.0
12-14Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA86-76L0%0.0
12-17Creighton (26.0)BEA66-65L0%0.0
12-19Little Rock (243.0)SBH63-48W100%0.0
12-23Richmond (80.0)A10H87-72W100%0.0
12-28Denver (207.0)SumA77-73L0%0.0
12-31Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA102-91L0%0.0
1-7Western Illinois (325.0)SumA86-71L0%0.0
1-12South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH94-88W100%0.0
1-14IUPUI (218.0)SumH85-91L0%0.0
1-18South Dakota (123.0)SumH90-80W100%0.0
1-21Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH103-86W100%0.0
1-25North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA81-71L0%0.0
1-28Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH83-87L0%0.0
1-31Denver (207.0)SumH69-93L0%0.0
2-4South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA74-67L0%0.0
2-8Western Illinois (325.0)SumH60-63L0%0.0
2-11IUPUI (218.0)SumA68-74W100%0.0
2-16Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA83-76L0%0.0
2-18South Dakota (123.0)SumA86-72L0%0.0
2-22North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH80-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSum26.3126.3118.6418.64-16.50-16.50
Nebraska OmahaSum4.614.6155.1755.170.480.48
South Dakota St.Sum4.614.6150.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum4.584.5865.5265.521.421.42
IUPUISum4.554.5539.2939.29-0.97-0.97
North Dakota St.Sum4.504.5057.6957.690.690.69
DenverSum4.484.4850.0050.000.000.00
Fort WayneSum4.474.4753.8553.850.340.34
Western IllinoisSum4.464.4616.6716.67-2.98-2.98
Missouri St.MVC1.911.9148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
BaylorB121.901.9076.6776.671.011.01
MontanaBSky1.871.8748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC1.871.8759.3859.380.350.35
Michigan St.B101.841.8456.2556.250.230.23
OklahomaB121.841.8433.3333.33-0.61-0.61
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.841.8451.7251.720.060.06
TulsaAmer1.821.8245.1645.16-0.18-0.18
Little RockSB1.811.8144.8344.83-0.19-0.19
CreightonBE1.811.8171.8871.880.790.79
OaklandHorz1.811.8172.4172.410.810.81
RichmondA101.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
Illinois St.MVC0.290.2981.2581.250.180.18
Wichita St.MVC0.280.2887.8887.880.210.21
Kansas St.B120.270.2760.6160.610.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2429.4129.41-0.10-0.10
DrakeMVC0.230.2320.6920.69-0.13-0.13
Montana St.BSky0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.230.2344.8344.83-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.230.2355.1755.170.020.02
UMKCWAC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.180.1873.5373.530.090.09
XavierBE0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
WyomingMWC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.160.1667.8667.860.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Texas TechB120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
BradleyMVC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
DetroitHorz0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1212.9012.90-0.09-0.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
TexasB120.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
USCP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
MemphisAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
DePaulBE0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
FordhamA100.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01