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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:163.0
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:199
Current SOS:199
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:184



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14163.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Tulsa (45.0)AmerH77-68W100%0.0
11-19Missouri (218.0)SECA78-64L0%0.0
11-21Oregon St. (133.0)P12A55-42L0%0.0
11-25Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBN76-52L0%0.0
11-26Milwaukee (206.0)HorzN69-66W100%0.0
12-1Weber St. (263.0)BSkyA62-61L0%0.0
12-13New Mexico St. (103.0)WACH86-83W100%0.0
12-15Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH80-61W100%0.0
12-16Oklahoma (18.0)B12A85-53L0%0.0
12-20Memphis (83.0)AmerA78-63L0%0.0
12-22Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA52-45L0%0.0
12-30Detroit (205.0)HorzA73-77W100%0.0
1-2North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA72-66L0%0.0
1-7IUPUI (260.0)SumH69-61W100%0.0
1-10Western Illinois (328.0)SumA57-66W100%0.0
1-14Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH102-86W100%0.0
1-17IPFW (215.0)SumH62-58W100%0.0
1-21Denver (232.0)SumA73-66L0%0.0
1-24South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH72-76L0%0.0
1-31South Dakota (213.0)SumA72-73W100%0.0
2-5IUPUI (260.0)SumA68-78W100%0.0
2-7IPFW (215.0)SumA75-69L0%0.0
2-12Western Illinois (328.0)SumH77-67W100%0.0
2-14South Dakota (213.0)SumH70-83L0%0.0
2-19Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA78-81W100%0.0
2-21South Dakota St. (90.0)SumA81-52L0%0.0
2-26North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH74-58W100%0.0
2-28Denver (232.0)SumH60-57W100%0.0
3-8IUPUI (260.0)SumN58-56W100%0.0
3-9North Dakota St. (92.0)SumN60-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSum26.5826.5857.1457.143.803.80
North Dakota St.Sum5.975.9770.3770.372.432.43
IUPUISum5.895.8935.7135.71-1.68-1.68
South Dakota St.Sum4.454.4565.5265.521.381.38
South DakotaSum4.404.4048.2848.28-0.15-0.15
DenverSum4.334.3339.2939.29-0.93-0.93
Western IllinoisSum4.314.3125.0025.00-2.15-2.15
IPFWSum4.294.2948.0048.00-0.17-0.17
Nebraska OmahaSum4.244.2442.3142.31-0.65-0.65
Missouri St.MVC3.363.3629.6329.63-1.37-1.37
MilwaukeeHorz1.881.8844.4444.44-0.21-0.21
TulsaAmer1.831.8373.3373.330.850.85
MemphisAmer1.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
OklahomaB121.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
DetroitHorz1.731.7343.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
MissouriSEC1.691.6923.3323.33-0.90-0.90
Weber St.BSky1.691.6937.0437.04-0.44-0.44
New Mexico St.WAC1.671.6770.0070.000.670.67
Oregon St.P121.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
MontanaBSky0.260.2660.0060.000.050.05
IdahoBSky0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.230.2321.4321.43-0.13-0.13
Northern IowaMVC0.220.2290.9190.910.180.18
UMKCWAC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.220.2287.1087.100.160.16
Oklahoma St.B120.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2083.3383.330.130.13
Montana St.BSky0.200.2020.6920.69-0.12-0.12
DrakeMVC0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
AuburnSEC0.170.1741.1841.18-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
South AlabamaSB0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
AkronMAC0.150.1558.8258.820.030.03
BradleyMVC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
SeattleWAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
TexasB120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
HoustonAmer0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
OaklandHorz0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Texas TechB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1175.8675.860.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
TempleAmer0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
TulaneAmer0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01