Oral Roberts

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	151.0
Current RPI:	151
Expected SOS:	171
Current SOS:	171
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-3
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	111
Expected OOC SOS:	12

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	151.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	69-49	L	0%
11-19	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	67-69	W	100%
11-22	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	N	66-75	W	100%
11-23	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	N	72-58	L	0%
11-24	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	N	67-70	L	0%
11-28	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	H	62-63	L	0%
12-1	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	A	52-72	W	100%
12-5	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	77-86	W	100%
12-18	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	89-64	L	0%
12-22	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	H	68-72	L	0%
12-28	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	A	72-57	L	0%
1-3	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	A	72-86	W	100%
1-5	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	63-76	W	100%
1-10	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	80-74	W	100%
1-12	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	50-61	L	0%
1-17	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	52-64	W	100%
1-19	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	61-65	W	100%
1-24	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	91-74	W	100%
1-26	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	75-54	W	100%
1-31	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	90-78	W	100%
2-2	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	65-59	W	100%
2-7	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	85-73	L	0%
2-9	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	77-67	L	0%
2-14	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	74-64	W	100%
2-16	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	56-51	W	100%
2-19	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	H	94-65	W	100%
2-23	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	66-70	L	0%
2-28	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	56-54	L	0%
3-2	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	50-68	W	100%
3-9	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	86-84	L	0%
3-14	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	N	55-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oral Roberts	Slnd	26.45	26.45	57.05	57.05	3.73	3.73
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	5.86	5.86	46.43	46.43	-0.42	-0.42
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.34	4.34	84.00	84.00	2.95	2.95
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.33	4.33	72.00	72.00	1.91	1.91
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.30	4.30	40.74	40.74	-0.80	-0.80
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.28	4.28	38.46	38.46	-0.99	-0.99
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.25	4.25	38.46	38.46	-0.98	-0.98
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.24	4.24	32.14	32.14	-1.51	-1.51
Lamar	Slnd	4.23	4.23	10.34	10.34	-3.36	-3.36
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.20	4.20	19.23	19.23	-2.58	-2.58
Oklahoma	B12	1.82	1.82	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
Tulsa	CUSA	1.80	1.80	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.74	1.74	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Texas St.	WAC	1.72	1.72	34.38	34.38	-0.54	-0.54
Memphis	CUSA	1.69	1.69	87.88	87.88	1.28	1.28
Charlotte	A10	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Missouri St.	MVC	1.64	1.64	30.00	30.00	-0.66	-0.66
Arizona	P12	1.64	1.64	77.42	77.42	0.90	0.90
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.64	1.64	32.26	32.26	-0.58	-0.58
Belmont	OVC	1.61	1.61	79.31	79.31	0.95	0.95
Pacific	BW	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Weber St.	BSky	1.61	1.61	79.31	79.31	0.95	0.95
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.25	0.25	71.88	71.88	0.11	0.11
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.22	0.22	80.65	80.65	0.14	0.14
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.21	0.21	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
Houston	CUSA	0.21	0.21	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.21	0.21	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.20	0.20	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Texas	B12	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.15	0.15	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Texas Tech	B12	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	93.75	93.75	0.11	0.11
Rice	CUSA	0.13	0.13	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.13	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	81.25	81.25	0.06	0.06
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	14.81	14.81	-0.06	-0.06
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01