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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:148.0
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:94
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:70
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17148.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH80-65W100%0.0
11-16South Carolina (65.0)SECA84-66L0%0.0
11-20Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCN70-66W100%0.0
11-21James Madison (103.0)CAAA64-74W100%0.0
11-22FIU (270.0)CUSAN70-76W100%0.0
11-28Detroit (204.0)HorzH100-95W100%0.0
12-1New Mexico (141.0)MWCA91-75L0%0.0
12-5Tulsa (58.0)AmerA68-70W100%0.0
12-12Oklahoma (6.0)B12A96-73L0%0.0
12-16Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA85-66L0%0.0
12-19LSU (94.0)SECA100-77L0%0.0
12-21New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA76-61L0%0.0
12-30IPFW (71.0)SumA90-84L0%0.0
1-3South Dakota (197.0)SumH84-94L0%0.0
1-6Denver (188.0)SumA78-75L0%0.0
1-9North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH66-65W100%0.0
1-14IUPUI (189.0)SumA71-80W100%0.0
1-16Western Illinois (262.0)SumA68-77W100%0.0
1-21South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH74-86L0%0.0
1-23Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH79-85L0%0.0
1-28IPFW (71.0)SumH63-68L0%0.0
2-4North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA67-63L0%0.0
2-6South Dakota (197.0)SumA91-79L0%0.0
2-11IUPUI (189.0)SumH77-56W100%0.0
2-13Western Illinois (262.0)SumH72-66W100%0.0
2-19Denver (188.0)SumH62-58W100%0.0
2-25Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA102-98L0%0.0
2-27South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA73-65L0%0.0
3-5South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA73-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSum26.4626.4645.5345.53-2.37-2.37
South Dakota St.Sum6.116.1175.0075.003.053.05
North Dakota St.Sum4.524.5258.6258.620.780.78
DenverSum4.474.4751.7251.720.150.15
IPFWSum4.444.4468.9768.971.681.68
IUPUISum4.444.4441.3841.38-0.77-0.77
South DakotaSum4.384.3835.7135.71-1.25-1.25
Nebraska OmahaSum4.374.3751.8551.850.160.16
Western IllinoisSum4.294.2931.8231.82-1.56-1.56
Missouri St.MVC3.533.5337.9337.93-0.85-0.85
TulsaAmer1.811.8166.6766.670.600.60
James MadisonCAA1.781.7866.6766.670.590.59
Tennessee MartinOVC1.781.7856.6756.670.240.24
FIUCUSA1.781.7837.9337.93-0.43-0.43
New MexicoMWC1.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
LSUSEC1.781.7856.2556.250.220.22
South CarolinaSEC1.781.7873.3373.330.830.83
New Mexico St.WAC1.781.7866.6766.670.590.59
OklahomaB121.751.7577.4277.420.960.96
DetroitHorz1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.310.3132.1432.14-0.11-0.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.260.2639.2939.29-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.260.2625.8125.81-0.12-0.12
Weber St.BSky0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
WyomingMWC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
DrakeMVC0.170.1720.0020.00-0.10-0.10
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
MemphisAmer0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
MissouriSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1472.4172.410.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1418.5218.52-0.09-0.09
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.453.45-0.12-0.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
Montana St.BSky0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
UNLVMWC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
ButlerBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1111.1111.11-0.09-0.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
UCFAmer0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UtahP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01