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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:220.9
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:107
Current Record:6-14
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:61



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14141.90.07%
12-15160.51.27%
11-16180.37.28%
10-17199.218.38%
9-18216.729.22%
8-19233.827.70%
7-20251.213.36%
6-21270.32.71%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tulsa (128.6)AmerA90-71L0%0.0
11-16Oklahoma St. (94.5)B12A91-48L0%0.0
11-20Montana (98.3)BSkyN69-64L0%0.0
11-21Pepperdine (307.7)WCCA80-76L0%0.0
11-24Penn St. (114.6)B10A86-48L0%0.0
11-27Oakland (137.4)HorzH86-93L0%0.0
11-29Kansas St. (67.7)B12A77-68L0%0.0
12-2Little Rock (293.5)SBA66-74W100%0.0
12-5UNLV (123.8)MWCN92-66L0%0.0
12-10Missouri St. (58.1)MVCH73-66W100%0.0
12-16Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunA64-83W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas (41.8)SECA104-69L0%0.0
12-21Minnesota (98.1)B10A77-63L0%0.0
12-30Nebraska Omaha (250.1)SumH93-74W100%0.0
1-4Fort Wayne (189.6)SumH76-60W100%0.0
1-6Western Illinois (297.6)SumH81-66W100%0.0
1-11South Dakota St. (65.2)SumA78-75L0%0.0
1-13North Dakota St. (167.4)SumA82-64L0%0.0
1-17South Dakota (99.3)SumA82-70L0%0.0
1-20Denver (271.6)SumH64-73L0%0.0
2-1Fort Wayne (189.6)SumA0-029%-6.2
2-3Western Illinois (297.6)SumA0-059%2.5
2-8North Dakota St. (167.4)SumH0-044%-1.6
2-10South Dakota St. (65.2)SumH0-026%-7.0
2-14South Dakota (99.3)SumH0-029%-6.2
2-18Denver (271.6)SumA0-045%-1.3
2-22Nebraska Omaha (250.1)SumA0-045%-1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSum26.3326.3932.5035.71-9.22-7.54
North Dakota St.Sum2.904.6141.1848.11-0.51-0.17
South Dakota St.Sum2.854.5870.5971.871.172.00
Fort WayneSum2.924.5855.5652.970.320.27
DenverSum2.904.5829.4133.07-1.19-1.55
Nebraska OmahaSum2.864.5626.3228.07-1.35-2.00
South DakotaSum2.864.5572.2271.321.271.94
Western IllinoisSum2.764.5346.1536.64-0.21-1.21
Missouri St.MVC2.712.0673.6870.651.280.85
Oklahoma St.B122.692.0066.6752.560.900.10
Kansas St.B122.631.9472.2261.471.170.45
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.571.9261.1168.710.570.72
OaklandHorz2.571.9260.0064.000.510.54
Penn St.B102.631.9160.0054.280.530.16
ArkansasSEC2.561.9166.6763.010.850.50
MinnesotaB102.631.9161.9056.220.630.24
TulsaAmer2.631.9152.6351.710.140.07
MontanaBSky2.561.8868.7572.150.960.83
PepperdineWCC2.571.885.5615.42-2.28-1.30
Little RockSB2.501.8523.5326.15-1.32-0.88
UNLVMWC2.501.8572.2264.111.110.52
DrakeMVC0.380.3655.0048.980.04-0.01
KansasB120.260.2884.2179.750.180.17
North DakotaBSky0.280.2729.4134.76-0.12-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.270.2750.0047.660.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.340.2758.8257.140.060.04
TCUB120.190.2573.6865.600.090.08
Iowa St.B120.280.2361.1147.220.06-0.01
OklahomaB120.330.2277.7867.910.180.08
StetsonASun0.200.2033.3336.93-0.07-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.280.2030.0039.93-0.11-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.270.2070.5969.630.110.08
San Jose St.MWC0.200.2011.7612.81-0.15-0.15
USC UpstateASun0.260.2011.1118.00-0.20-0.13
Wichita St.Amer0.260.1978.9577.380.150.11
IowaB100.130.1947.6244.02-0.01-0.02
WyomingMWC0.140.1761.1156.830.030.02
UMKCWAC0.200.1721.0524.75-0.12-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.1611.1115.29-0.16-0.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.1629.4133.93-0.07-0.05
IndianaB100.180.1657.8950.710.030.00
Illinois St.MVC0.250.1647.3746.09-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.190.1568.4263.960.070.04
Miami OHMAC0.160.1547.0641.41-0.01-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1536.8432.76-0.04-0.05
IUPUIHorz0.090.1427.7829.83-0.04-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1445.0047.07-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.140.1460.0053.720.030.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1338.8946.05-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.140.1337.5031.76-0.03-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.200.1372.2258.920.090.02
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1327.7831.11-0.06-0.05
DetroitHorz0.130.1321.0525.97-0.07-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1342.1146.00-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.140.1352.6345.860.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1321.0523.51-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.210.1337.5033.78-0.05-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
BaylorB120.070.1261.1156.090.010.01
NebraskaB100.120.1266.6759.820.040.02
NorthwesternB100.180.1255.0050.330.020.00
TexasB120.070.1263.1657.630.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.1278.9571.810.040.05
West VirginiaB120.130.1284.2178.170.090.07
AmericanPat0.160.1126.3228.11-0.07-0.05
NavyPat0.140.1060.0055.160.030.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1033.3335.21-0.05-0.03
StanfordP120.140.1055.0050.370.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1058.8249.760.02-0.00
WashingtonP120.140.1070.0061.440.050.02
ArizonaP120.140.1080.0078.940.080.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1010.0019.63-0.11-0.06
KentuckySEC0.070.1073.6867.970.030.04
Georgia St.SB0.140.1066.6765.520.050.03
San DiegoWCC0.140.1063.1657.540.040.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.0945.0049.29-0.02-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.0966.6765.370.040.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.0937.5037.68-0.05-0.02
PacificWCC0.130.0945.0044.47-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0965.0057.880.020.01
MemphisAmer0.190.0965.0058.540.060.02
PittsburghACC0.200.0940.0030.87-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.130.0952.6347.390.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.130.0944.4450.08-0.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.190.0945.0041.33-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.120.0968.4269.250.040.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0966.6763.420.020.02
IllinoisB100.120.0947.3744.27-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.120.0970.0065.250.050.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0985.0083.200.040.06
Ohio St.B100.060.0980.9576.520.040.05
PurdueB100.060.0990.4888.370.050.07
ButlerBE0.090.0866.6763.070.030.02
AkronMAC0.070.0747.0644.91-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0716.6724.26-0.05-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0772.2274.930.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.070.009.09-0.07-0.06
DukeACC0.070.0789.4785.210.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0777.7879.150.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0736.8444.11-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0750.0054.190.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0752.6355.290.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0741.1838.47-0.01-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0780.0078.850.040.04
UCLAP120.070.0765.0062.050.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0722.2227.33-0.04-0.03
USCP120.070.0771.4368.280.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0733.3334.10-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0738.8943.43-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0716.6724.91-0.04-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0752.9459.340.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0778.9569.790.040.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0772.2274.710.060.03
NJITASun0.070.0738.8942.61-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0731.5835.150.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0758.8263.210.010.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0716.6724.45-0.05-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0757.8953.190.010.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0733.3333.770.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.140.0617.6523.86-0.09-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0660.0062.030.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.2557.400.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3337.230.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.240.040.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.140.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.370.050.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.04-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0627.7829.100.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.0627.7827.280.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0690.4888.960.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.130.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0633.3332.94-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0652.6347.520.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0644.4446.02-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0678.9574.190.040.03
ManhattanMAAC0.130.0650.0050.860.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0635.0026.120.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0655.0052.470.000.00
TempleAmer0.060.0652.6351.740.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0663.1657.890.020.01
ValparaisoMVC0.130.0647.3748.77-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.130.0678.9572.990.070.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.0621.0539.48-0.07-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.120.0652.9452.230.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0668.4258.980.020.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0689.4777.000.050.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0678.9576.990.040.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0620.0023.34-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.0646.6746.97-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.130.0645.0043.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6755.940.000.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0625.0027.94-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.170.010.00
MichiganB100.000.0676.1970.740.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.060.0010.67-0.13-0.05
MissouriSEC0.070.0666.6763.200.020.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0685.7182.090.000.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0666.6773.210.020.03
RutgersB100.060.0655.0046.690.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0658.8262.820.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.49-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.060.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.30-0.05-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0364.7166.850.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0343.7540.930.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.430.040.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.660.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.03-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0318.7536.82-0.04-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0357.1460.410.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.13-0.01-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0389.4785.550.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0320.0041.73-0.04-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0350.0054.890.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0070.570.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0368.4260.860.000.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0368.4270.810.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0310.5316.75-0.04-0.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.020.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0329.4133.20-0.03-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.64-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.030.003.07-0.06-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0320.0032.25-0.04-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.039.5217.90-0.05-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0323.5332.57-0.03-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.560.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.640.030.01
George MasonA100.060.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0337.5046.69-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.035.8819.35-0.06-0.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0377.7870.480.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.24-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0357.1453.050.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.060.040.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0365.0056.340.020.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.470.020.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.05-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.320.020.01
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0368.4261.230.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0321.0544.26-0.03-0.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0366.6767.700.020.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0363.1665.970.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
UtahP120.070.0363.1659.710.020.01
Washington St.P120.070.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0338.8935.37-0.01-0.01