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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:305.9
Current RPI:279
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:85
Current Record:0-6
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-7
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:31



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15173.00.01%
12-16197.50.04%
11-17210.20.29%
10-18237.41.21%
9-19253.93.53%
8-20271.57.75%
7-21288.513.94%
6-22302.119.81%
5-23313.720.67%
4-24323.116.91%
3-25330.910.38%
2-26336.44.26%
1-27341.11.08%
-0-28342.80.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Baylor (11.5)B12A76-61L0%0.0
11-18Mississippi (134.5)SECN95-88L0%0.0
11-19Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCN53-78L0%0.0
11-21Montana (251.5)BSkyN68-47L0%0.0
11-28Tulsa (186.7)AmerH65-79L0%0.0
12-1Oakland (89.5)HorzA92-64L0%0.0
12-3Michigan St. (41.5)B10A0-01%-26.1
12-7Oklahoma (70.0)B12A0-02%-24.1
12-14Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-06%-18.7
12-17Creighton (25.4)BEA0-01%-28.6
12-19Little Rock (161.3)SBH0-030%-6.2
12-23Richmond (173.8)A10H0-026%-7.8
12-28Denver (270.4)SumA0-027%-7.3
12-31Fort Wayne (119.2)SumA0-09%-16.4
1-7Western Illinois (333.0)SumA0-043%-2.1
1-12South Dakota St. (254.3)SumH0-042%-2.5
1-14IUPUI (194.4)SumH0-032%-5.5
1-18South Dakota (218.7)SumH0-042%-2.4
1-21Nebraska Omaha (183.8)SumH0-032%-5.6
1-25North Dakota St. (130.6)SumA0-012%-14.1
1-28Fort Wayne (119.2)SumH0-020%-10.2
1-31Denver (270.4)SumH0-046%-1.1
2-4South Dakota St. (254.3)SumA0-023%-8.7
2-8Western Illinois (333.0)SumH0-063%4.1
2-11IUPUI (194.4)SumA0-017%-11.7
2-16Nebraska Omaha (183.8)SumA0-016%-11.8
2-18South Dakota (218.7)SumA0-024%-8.6
2-22North Dakota St. (130.6)SumH0-025%-7.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSum29.0126.390.0018.49-29.01-16.63
South DakotaSum0.604.5157.1445.750.09-0.38
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.5050.0060.260.000.92
DenverSum0.004.4833.3339.47-0.00-0.94
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.4814.2935.30-0.00-1.32
IUPUISum0.004.4828.5745.58-0.00-0.40
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.4833.3346.64-0.00-0.30
Fort WayneSum0.004.4766.6769.740.001.77
Western IllinoisSum0.004.460.0020.59-0.00-2.62
Missouri St.MVC0.001.9175.0063.920.000.53
BaylorB128.331.90100.0073.588.330.90
MontanaBSky8.931.880.0045.69-8.93-0.16
MississippiSEC8.931.8766.6744.212.98-0.22
Loyola ChicagoMVC8.331.8560.0052.791.670.10
Michigan St.B100.601.8550.0060.360.000.38
OklahomaB120.001.8583.3350.340.000.01
Little RockSB0.001.8260.0057.470.000.27
TulsaAmer8.331.8250.0036.940.00-0.47
CreightonBE0.601.81100.0075.880.600.94
OaklandHorz8.331.8180.0077.665.001.00
RichmondA100.001.7957.1447.710.00-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2850.0066.170.000.09
Wichita St.MVC0.830.2871.4386.030.360.20
Kansas St.B120.000.2585.7155.890.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.2533.3333.15-0.00-0.09
DrakeMVC0.000.250.0021.30-0.00-0.14
Montana St.BSky0.000.2450.0062.460.000.06
UMKCWAC0.000.2271.4356.050.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.2140.0057.49-0.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.2140.0050.88-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.2050.0033.010.00-0.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1871.4368.970.000.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.180.0021.30-0.00-0.10
WyomingMWC0.600.1860.0048.590.12-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1683.3362.840.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.1633.3353.29-0.000.01
XavierBE0.000.16100.0074.800.000.08
South AlabamaSB0.000.1583.3361.150.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1550.0029.280.00-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1583.3356.560.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1550.0043.610.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.1585.7163.780.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1450.0043.490.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.690.130.0017.30-0.69-0.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1350.0038.430.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1340.0041.65-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.1371.4374.450.000.06
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1385.7168.390.000.05
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0019.51-0.00-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1316.6730.02-0.00-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1350.0055.850.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.1383.3376.370.000.07
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0023.26-0.00-0.07
USCP120.600.12100.0075.380.600.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1271.4363.090.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1233.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1250.0046.670.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1250.0054.690.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1285.7159.740.000.02
MichiganB100.000.1271.4366.530.000.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1216.6740.71-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1266.6751.460.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.1220.0054.94-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.1285.7176.170.000.06
TCUB120.000.12100.0059.480.000.02
TexasB120.000.1250.0036.240.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1283.3380.550.000.07
UC DavisBW0.690.1057.1448.410.10-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0983.3375.060.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0024.77-0.00-0.05
TulaneAmer0.000.0914.2926.81-0.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.0957.1442.660.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0942.8644.33-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0971.4366.220.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0950.0042.710.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0024.25-0.00-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.690.0933.3343.64-0.23-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0050.290.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7174.430.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.0971.4355.750.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0942.8661.90-0.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0940.0037.44-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0966.6766.100.000.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0033.43-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8637.60-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0980.0035.960.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0987.5075.320.000.05
North Carolina St.ACC1.290.0971.4350.570.550.00
Saint Joseph'sA101.290.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
Washington St.P121.290.0950.0036.820.00-0.02
VCUA100.600.0985.7178.150.430.05
St. John'sBE0.000.0928.5733.92-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.0975.0073.840.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0983.3355.200.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0716.6735.65-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0750.0051.260.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0728.5743.62-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0024.32-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.07100.0075.010.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.0728.5728.26-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0725.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0766.6758.420.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.830.0657.1447.320.12-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0683.3368.880.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.600.0650.0071.330.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
MassachusettsA100.600.0683.3358.080.400.01
OregonP120.600.0671.4366.730.260.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.0625.0040.37-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.830.0325.0030.93-0.42-0.01
Oregon St.P120.830.0328.5723.76-0.36-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.690.030.0032.39-0.69-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
NevadaMWC0.690.0375.0070.470.350.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.690.030.0038.35-0.69-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.690.0316.6736.45-0.46-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.600.0385.7175.950.430.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.600.0350.0058.600.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.600.0385.7173.010.430.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.600.0375.0054.320.300.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01