Oral Roberts

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	45.1
Current RPI:	48
Expected SOS:	152
Current SOS:	150
Current Record:	21-5
Expected Record:	25-6
Current Conf Record:	13-1
Expected Conf Record:	16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	38.24%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-0
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	78
Expected OOC SOS:	129

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-5	34.9	32.47%
25-6	45.4	44.12%
24-7	56.3	19.00%
23-8	68.3	3.99%
22-9	80.0	0.40%
21-10	94.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	West Virginia (28.4)	BE	A	78-71	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Texas San Antonio (170.6)	Slnd	N	77-78	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Arkansas Pine Bluff (324.8)	SWAC	N	80-44	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	H	71-59	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Southern Methodist (213.4)	CUSA	H	62-56	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Florida International (214.2)	SB	H	73-65	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Missouri St. (82.6)	MVC	H	68-63	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	H	61-55	W	100%	0.0
12-8	Oklahoma (93.0)	B12	A	73-59	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Arkansas Little Rock (187.1)	SB	A	55-58	W	100%	0.0
12-15	Gonzaga (28.7)	WCC	A	67-61	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Xavier (57.8)	A10	A	42-64	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Texas Tech (235.0)	B12	H	72-56	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	A	65-72	W	100%	0.0
12-30	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	A	67-79	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	A	80-89	W	100%	0.0
1-5	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	H	89-80	W	100%	0.0
1-7	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	H	97-75	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	A	70-71	W	100%	0.0
1-14	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	A	71-81	W	100%	0.0
1-19	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	65-54	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	H	93-86	W	100%	0.0
1-26	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	H	97-64	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	H	77-67	W	100%	0.0
2-2	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	A	75-60	L	0%	0.0
2-4	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	A	76-85	W	100%	0.0
2-9	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	H	0-0		91%	14.9
2-11	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	H	0-0		86%	11.8
2-15	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	A	0-0		86%	11.8
2-18	Akron (48.0)	MAC	H	0-0		60%	2.7
2-25	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	A	0-0		80%	9.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oral Roberts	Sum	26.56	26.42	85.09	83.79	18.64	17.85
IUPUI	Sum	2.80	4.20	36.36	37.84	-0.76	-1.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	2.85	4.19	35.00	34.29	-0.85	-1.32
Oakland	Sum	4.66	4.18	52.17	53.87	0.20	0.32
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.57	4.18	38.10	37.80	-1.09	-1.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.55	4.18	76.19	77.36	2.38	2.29
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.54	4.17	68.42	68.61	1.67	1.55
Southern Utah	Sum	2.90	4.17	47.62	47.03	-0.14	-0.25
South Dakota	Sum	4.54	4.16	29.41	31.33	-1.87	-1.55
Western Illinois	Sum	2.76	4.16	55.56	51.92	0.31	0.16
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.05	1.75	45.45	45.84	-0.19	-0.15
Xavier	A10	2.01	1.70	68.18	65.89	0.73	0.54
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	2.01	1.70	21.74	26.71	-1.14	-0.79
Florida International	SB	1.96	1.67	35.00	38.53	-0.59	-0.38
Missouri St.	MVC	2.00	1.67	56.52	59.08	0.26	0.30
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.00	1.67	40.00	39.15	-0.40	-0.36
Oklahoma	B12	1.96	1.67	54.55	52.35	0.18	0.08
Texas Tech	B12	1.96	1.67	31.82	26.74	-0.71	-0.78
West Virginia	BE	1.96	1.67	65.22	64.85	0.60	0.49
Akron	MAC	0.08	1.66	68.18	68.94	0.03	0.63
Gonzaga	WCC	1.96	1.64	80.95	80.84	1.22	1.01
Austin Peay	OVC	1.92	1.61	33.33	36.61	-0.64	-0.43
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	1.92	1.61	55.00	59.32	0.19	0.30
North Dakota	GWC	0.44	0.36	33.33	41.30	-0.15	-0.06
Troy	SB	0.22	0.26	28.57	30.17	-0.09	-0.10
Western Michigan	MAC	0.20	0.22	40.91	42.97	-0.04	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.30	0.22	47.83	42.67	-0.01	-0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.16	0.20	65.22	63.55	0.05	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.29	0.18	17.39	19.76	-0.19	-0.11
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.17	0.17	83.33	84.76	0.11	0.12
Houston	CUSA	0.21	0.16	47.62	44.58	-0.01	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.15	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.18	0.15	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.17	0.14	69.57	66.33	0.07	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.18	0.14	45.45	47.09	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.18	0.14	34.78	34.46	-0.05	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.14	37.50	38.36	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.13	0.14	47.62	48.81	-0.01	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.14	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.17	0.14	47.62	47.19	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.14	17.39	20.75	-0.11	-0.08
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.14	62.50	62.07	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.13	90.91	83.90	0.10	0.09
Kansas St.	B12	0.21	0.13	73.91	68.41	0.10	0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.16	0.13	14.29	14.31	-0.11	-0.09
Nebraska	B10	0.18	0.12	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.12	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.12	0.00	5.31	-0.09	-0.11
Evansville	MVC	0.04	0.12	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.12	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.12	4.35	9.74	-0.08	-0.09
Fresno St.	WAC	0.18	0.12	39.13	44.46	-0.04	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.18	0.12	70.83	62.75	0.07	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.12	56.52	53.76	0.02	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.08	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.11	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.17	0.11	77.27	73.50	0.09	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.18	0.11	26.32	29.85	-0.08	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.17	0.11	60.87	59.05	0.04	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.11	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.17	0.11	55.00	54.45	0.02	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.13	0.11	43.48	43.27	-0.02	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.11	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.11	68.42	66.51	0.00	0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.11	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.11	31.82	42.18	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.11	70.83	66.50	0.03	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.11	78.26	78.42	0.07	0.06
Missouri	B12	0.13	0.11	91.67	87.92	0.10	0.08
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.11	81.82	77.18	0.05	0.06
Texas	B12	0.04	0.11	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.08	0.11	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.16	0.11	69.57	65.37	0.06	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.14	0.09	40.91	44.29	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	33.33	34.54	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	62.50	60.78	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.09	36.36	39.73	-0.04	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.09	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.08	0.09	70.83	72.24	0.03	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.09	8.70	8.99	-0.11	-0.07
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.08	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.08	25.00	23.73	-0.02	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.08	31.82	33.75	-0.05	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.13	0.08	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.08	81.82	81.02	0.08	0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.08	28.57	26.31	-0.04	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	90.91	87.78	0.07	0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.13	0.08	28.57	35.72	-0.05	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.95	77.45	0.05	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.04	0.08	79.17	74.20	0.02	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.08	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.08	69.57	71.58	0.05	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.04	0.08	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.08	69.57	65.18	0.05	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.04	0.08	30.00	34.18	-0.02	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	77.27	77.70	0.05	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.08	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.08	18.18	23.34	-0.05	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.04	0.08	65.22	62.67	0.01	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.04	0.08	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	21.05	24.33	-0.05	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	28.57	29.05	-0.02	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.06	76.19	70.71	0.05	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.06	9.09	12.82	-0.04	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.06	14.29	17.12	-0.03	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.06	30.43	31.40	-0.04	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.04	0.06	8.33	10.84	-0.04	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.06	13.64	16.23	-0.07	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.04	0.06	85.71	78.11	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.04	0.06	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.04	0.06	80.00	76.71	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.03	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.04	0.06	75.00	76.02	0.02	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.06	66.67	60.84	0.03	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.06	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.04	0.06	59.09	57.69	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.06	72.00	72.22	0.04	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.06	36.00	40.36	-0.02	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.06	21.74	21.75	-0.05	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.04	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.01	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.06	76.19	75.98	0.02	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.08	0.06	69.57	66.59	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.06	75.00	74.01	0.04	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.06	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.00	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.05	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.09	0.05	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.04	0.05	27.78	29.51	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.04	0.05	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.05	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.05	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.05	69.57	70.16	0.03	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.08	0.05	70.83	73.74	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.04	0.05	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.05	84.00	82.62	0.05	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.04	0.05	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.05	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.04	0.05	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.05	34.78	32.05	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.04	0.05	100.00	94.58	0.04	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.05	62.50	61.43	0.02	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.05	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.04	0.05	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.05	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.05	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.05	78.26	72.28	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.05	60.87	59.85	0.02	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.05	16.67	26.81	-0.05	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.04	0.05	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.04	0.05	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.04	0.05	35.00	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.05	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.05	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.42	68.62	0.02	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.02	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.77	-0.00	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.04	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.04	0.03	96.00	93.53	0.04	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.01	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	26.96	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.00	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.00	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.00	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.04	0.03	47.83	47.88	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.04	0.03	75.00	74.62	0.02	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.41	0.00	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.00	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.04	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.04	0.03	31.82	32.98	-0.02	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.04	0.03	8.33	10.90	-0.03	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.04	0.03	70.83	68.83	0.02	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.03	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.04	0.03	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.65	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.04	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.02	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.03	31.82	34.86	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.03	5.26	7.29	-0.00	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.00	0.03	60.00	58.30	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.00	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.04	0.03	30.00	33.22	-0.02	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.04	0.03	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.04	0.03	26.32	29.64	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.03	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.04	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.00
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.00	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.03	80.00	78.08	0.00	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.04	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.04	0.03	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.04	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.00	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.04	0.03	66.67	63.50	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.04	0.03	69.57	69.00	0.02	0.01
Providence	BE	0.04	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.04	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.04	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.04	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00