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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:144.4
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:85
Current Record:10-14
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:58
Expected OOC SOS:35



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14107.52.34%
13-15124.618.94%
12-16142.746.55%
11-17158.927.23%
10-18174.54.93%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Missouri St. (235.3)MVCH80-65W100%0.0
11-16South Carolina (39.1)SECA84-66L0%0.0
11-20Tennessee Martin (239.0)OVCN70-66W100%0.0
11-21James Madison (78.2)CAAA64-74W100%0.0
11-22FIU (242.9)CUSAN70-76W100%0.0
11-28Detroit (218.4)HorzH100-95W100%0.0
12-1New Mexico (104.0)MWCA91-75L0%0.0
12-5Tulsa (55.7)AmerA68-70W100%0.0
12-12Oklahoma (3.1)B12A96-73L0%0.0
12-16Missouri St. (235.3)MVCA85-66L0%0.0
12-19LSU (86.5)SECA100-77L0%0.0
12-21New Mexico St. (119.9)WACA76-61L0%0.0
12-30IPFW (82.0)SumA90-84L0%0.0
1-3South Dakota (181.7)SumH84-94L0%0.0
1-6Denver (209.2)SumA78-75L0%0.0
1-9North Dakota St. (124.2)SumH66-65W100%0.0
1-14IUPUI (185.0)SumA71-80W100%0.0
1-16Western Illinois (243.2)SumA68-77W100%0.0
1-21South Dakota St. (44.1)SumH74-86L0%0.0
1-23Nebraska Omaha (124.9)SumH79-85L0%0.0
1-28IPFW (82.0)SumH63-68L0%0.0
2-4North Dakota St. (124.2)SumA67-63L0%0.0
2-6South Dakota (181.7)SumA91-79L0%0.0
2-11IUPUI (185.0)SumH77-56W100%0.0
2-13Western Illinois (243.2)SumH0-073%6.7
2-19Denver (209.2)SumH0-071%6.1
2-25Nebraska Omaha (124.9)SumA0-028%-6.4
2-27South Dakota St. (44.1)SumA0-015%-11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSum26.4826.4546.3046.24-1.96-1.99
IUPUISum4.844.5341.6741.25-0.81-0.79
DenverSum2.794.4750.0048.180.00-0.16
IPFWSum4.784.4768.1866.331.741.46
South DakotaSum4.834.4739.1339.38-1.05-0.95
Nebraska OmahaSum2.794.4656.5256.460.360.58
North Dakota St.Sum4.774.4661.9060.581.140.94
South Dakota St.Sum2.734.4672.7373.261.242.08
Western IllinoisSum2.724.4433.3333.73-0.91-1.45
Missouri St.MVC4.293.6636.3636.48-1.17-0.99
TulsaAmer2.221.8869.5766.940.870.64
New MexicoMWC2.171.8556.5259.400.280.35
James MadisonCAA2.171.8575.0073.781.090.88
FIUCUSA2.171.8540.9144.52-0.39-0.20
Tennessee MartinOVC2.171.8552.1752.310.090.09
LSUSEC2.171.8560.8757.710.470.28
South CarolinaSEC2.171.8486.3679.751.581.10
New Mexico St.WAC2.171.8463.6467.440.590.64
OklahomaB122.131.8186.3682.021.551.16
DetroitHorz2.081.7947.6245.56-0.10-0.16
UMKCWAC0.260.2828.5732.75-0.11-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2739.1341.05-0.04-0.05
MinnesotaB100.260.2525.0027.26-0.13-0.11
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.2345.8343.78-0.02-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.210.2150.0049.480.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1960.8762.470.040.05
ValparaisoHorz0.220.1982.6183.030.140.13
Weber St.BSky0.130.1966.6769.750.040.07
Illinois St.MVC0.220.1956.0054.080.030.02
WyomingMWC0.170.1943.4842.54-0.02-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.220.1840.0042.85-0.04-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.260.1847.6249.28-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.220.1845.8342.30-0.02-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.1843.4843.77-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.180.1664.0062.070.050.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.180.1614.2915.44-0.13-0.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1650.0052.870.000.01
Texas TechB120.130.1560.8755.310.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1573.9176.700.060.08
MissouriSEC0.090.1533.3330.28-0.03-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.220.1556.0055.450.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.130.1543.4837.80-0.02-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.170.1536.3636.29-0.05-0.04
MemphisAmer0.170.1558.3359.310.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.149.5210.67-0.08-0.11
Chicago St.WAC0.100.144.357.72-0.09-0.12
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1321.7422.75-0.08-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.180.1354.1753.810.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1382.6181.130.090.08
Montana St.BSky0.130.1343.4844.83-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.1345.4551.69-0.010.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1366.6767.670.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1347.6248.04-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.170.1345.8344.07-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.1368.1867.730.030.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.1327.2726.45-0.04-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1333.3334.95-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.180.1354.1754.200.020.01
Iowa St.B120.180.1270.8367.970.080.04
TCUB120.090.1245.8339.36-0.01-0.03
BradleyMVC0.170.1212.0011.95-0.13-0.09
DrakeMVC0.090.1220.8323.28-0.05-0.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1254.5555.550.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1272.0073.080.080.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1216.6719.49-0.09-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1213.0415.26-0.13-0.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.1273.0872.610.040.06
ButlerBE0.170.1270.8369.000.070.05
Kansas St.B120.170.1258.3356.290.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.170.1234.7833.02-0.05-0.04
UNLVMWC0.170.1252.1755.070.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.130.1260.8755.980.030.01
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5057.000.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.1040.0043.39-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.1050.0049.760.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.130.0940.9138.82-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0930.0031.76-0.05-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.090.0948.0048.60-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.090.0950.0044.650.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.0927.89-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.0960.0057.650.030.01
StetsonASun0.130.0922.7327.39-0.07-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.140.0958.3359.970.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0973.9168.450.040.03
LipscombASun0.090.0928.0030.49-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.130.0931.8232.68-0.05-0.03
ElonCAA0.130.0950.0050.070.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.130.0950.0051.110.000.00
DrexelCAA0.130.0913.0416.42-0.10-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0941.6739.49-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.130.0966.6766.770.040.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0979.1778.100.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.0960.8758.900.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.0955.160.020.01
HoustonAmer0.130.0970.8367.980.050.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.0925.0026.38-0.06-0.04
MarquetteBE0.120.0964.0057.890.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0950.0048.950.00-0.00
PurdueB100.120.0980.0077.910.070.05
TennesseeSEC0.050.0950.0048.130.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0950.0052.940.000.01
AuburnSEC0.130.0939.1335.45-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.040.0966.6766.320.010.03
KentuckySEC0.040.0975.0072.610.020.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0975.0075.340.040.04
IowaB100.050.0779.1778.880.030.04
Green BayHorz0.090.0756.5257.700.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0731.8235.12-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0765.3865.510.010.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0730.4332.26-0.04-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0645.4546.08-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.040.0670.8365.580.020.02
MontanaBSky0.090.0660.0062.710.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.0645.0048.13-0.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0647.6245.02-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0661.9065.330.010.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0638.1035.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0665.2264.340.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0628.5734.11-0.04-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0631.8230.08-0.03-0.02
IndianaB100.090.0680.0075.690.050.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0647.8350.89-0.000.00
NavyPat0.090.0664.0064.460.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0640.0045.20-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.040.0630.4328.20-0.02-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0633.3332.04-0.01-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0683.3379.820.030.04
UC RiversideBW0.040.0645.8341.63-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0626.0928.41-0.04-0.03
UtahP120.090.0670.8368.520.040.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.0412.96-0.03-0.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0662.5064.120.020.02
RiceCUSA0.040.0627.2728.16-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0660.8757.130.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0625.0029.89-0.04-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0672.0071.570.020.03
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0670.8370.130.020.02
DelawareCAA0.040.0625.0024.93-0.02-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0655.0053.670.010.00
KansasB120.050.0682.6179.200.030.03
SMUAmer0.090.0686.9682.920.060.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.0019.73-0.03-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0614.2914.91-0.06-0.04
TempleAmer0.040.0665.2262.370.010.01
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.200.020.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0636.0034.84-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0677.2773.930.020.03
William & MaryCAA0.040.0668.1867.110.020.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0662.5057.730.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0622.2231.22-0.05-0.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0662.5058.940.020.01
Washington St.P120.090.0634.7831.64-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.040.0660.8760.440.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0663.6461.550.010.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0657.1455.360.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0669.5770.090.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0623.8122.86-0.02-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.770.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.25-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0368.0066.640.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0324.0026.44-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0350.0051.280.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0372.7370.520.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0352.1753.440.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0331.8232.46-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.180.010.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.39-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0368.1865.170.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0386.3684.220.030.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.400.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.63-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.57-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0385.0083.440.030.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0352.9452.100.000.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0360.8760.670.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.039.5212.09-0.04-0.02
OhioMAC0.040.0363.6461.470.010.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0363.6458.760.010.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0352.1754.100.000.00
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.820.010.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.45-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0387.5086.850.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.040.0329.1731.19-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.040.0368.0070.260.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0354.5552.530.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
USCP120.040.0378.2673.130.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01