live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:214.2
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:213
Current SOS:200
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-865.50.04%
19-989.30.10%
18-10102.20.49%
17-11119.11.66%
16-12136.54.30%
15-13158.88.96%
14-14180.015.06%
13-15202.919.01%
12-16225.318.71%
11-17247.715.08%
10-18268.99.52%
9-19287.44.72%
8-20302.61.75%
7-21316.10.46%
6-22324.80.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Tulsa (96.0)AmerH77-68W100%0.0
11-19Missouri (178.1)SECA78-64L0%0.0
11-21Oregon St. (156.6)P12A55-42L0%0.0
11-25Louisiana Lafayette (186.4)SBN76-52L0%0.0
11-26Milwaukee (258.2)HorzN69-66W100%0.0
12-1Weber St. (244.6)BSkyA62-61L0%0.0
12-13New Mexico St. (109.3)WACH86-83W100%0.0
12-15Missouri St. (203.7)MVCH80-61W100%0.0
12-16Oklahoma (18.8)B12A85-53L0%0.0
12-20Memphis (89.4)AmerA0-014%-12.8
12-22Missouri St. (203.7)MVCA0-034%-4.7
12-30Detroit (131.7)HorzA0-018%-10.8
1-2North Dakota St. (169.7)SumA0-028%-7.0
1-7IUPUI (289.2)SumH0-078%9.3
1-10Western Illinois (298.1)SumA0-054%1.1
1-14Nebraska Omaha (222.4)SumH0-059%2.7
1-17IPFW (191.8)SumH0-057%2.0
1-21Denver (189.8)SumA0-027%-7.1
1-24South Dakota St. (160.2)SumH0-055%1.6
1-31South Dakota (243.3)SumA0-034%-4.9
2-5IUPUI (289.2)SumA0-051%0.3
2-7IPFW (191.8)SumA0-028%-7.0
2-12Western Illinois (298.1)SumH0-080%10.1
2-14South Dakota (243.3)SumH0-063%4.1
2-19Nebraska Omaha (222.4)SumA0-030%-6.2
2-21South Dakota St. (160.2)SumA0-027%-7.3
2-26North Dakota St. (169.7)SumH0-056%1.9
2-28Denver (189.8)SumH0-056%1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSum28.0526.4745.1646.95-2.71-1.62
IUPUISum0.314.5220.0026.05-0.19-2.17
South DakotaSum0.004.5220.0040.09-0.00-0.90
Western IllinoisSum0.004.5037.5031.61-0.00-1.65
DenverSum0.004.4944.4454.82-0.000.43
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.4837.5051.48-0.000.13
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.4857.1454.290.000.38
IPFWSum0.004.4757.1455.990.000.54
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.4755.5656.000.000.54
Missouri St.MVC5.563.6050.0039.140.00-0.78
MilwaukeeHorz5.952.0037.5035.28-1.49-0.59
TulsaAmer6.261.9762.5059.271.570.37
MemphisAmer0.001.9250.0058.130.000.31
OklahomaB126.171.8875.0066.923.090.64
DetroitHorz0.001.8550.0052.410.000.09
Louisiana LafayetteSB6.171.8533.3351.08-2.060.04
MissouriSEC5.861.8237.5029.10-1.47-0.76
Weber St.BSky5.561.8216.6739.98-3.70-0.36
New Mexico St.WAC5.561.7944.4467.40-0.620.62
Oregon St.P125.561.7971.4348.722.38-0.05
IdahoBSky0.000.2737.5049.62-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.2590.0079.360.000.15
UMKCWAC0.620.2522.2242.30-0.34-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.590.2587.5085.930.440.18
Illinois St.MVC0.400.2362.5065.100.100.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.2325.0033.19-0.00-0.08
MontanaBSky0.310.2325.0050.98-0.150.00
ValparaisoHorz0.310.2280.0069.650.190.09
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2233.3334.47-0.00-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.960.2188.8964.140.750.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2037.5048.43-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2020.0020.84-0.00-0.11
Montana St.BSky0.000.2025.0027.78-0.00-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1916.6733.31-0.00-0.06
DrakeMVC0.000.1920.0020.57-0.00-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1975.0070.380.000.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1911.1129.23-0.00-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1950.0051.120.000.00
AuburnSEC1.360.1837.5032.05-0.34-0.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.710.1642.8639.29-0.10-0.03
PurdueB100.310.1672.7363.400.140.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1633.3332.65-0.00-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1633.3341.10-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.400.16100.0077.640.400.09
South AlabamaSB0.000.150.0039.43-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.1571.4361.160.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.1460.0056.480.000.02
TexasB120.000.1390.0081.780.000.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.1333.3359.83-0.090.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1366.6754.790.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1360.0050.220.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.1371.4377.180.000.07
OaklandHorz0.000.1330.0031.51-0.00-0.05
SeattleWAC0.000.1337.5045.72-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1342.8644.96-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.400.1340.0028.86-0.08-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.1355.5653.100.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0011.59-0.00-0.10
Georgia St.SB0.000.1271.4372.840.000.06
Kansas St.B120.000.1260.0038.270.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.400.1287.5047.890.30-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1228.5726.77-0.00-0.06
CreightonBE0.620.1272.7351.370.280.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1250.0048.280.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1257.1456.000.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1237.5037.27-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.1283.3358.570.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.1266.6770.530.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1287.5054.670.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.1250.0030.140.00-0.05
BaylorB120.000.1288.8975.070.000.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.1011.1143.47-0.24-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0023.06-0.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.280.1011.1129.36-0.22-0.04
NevadaMWC0.400.1012.5024.45-0.30-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.400.1055.5655.850.040.01
Utah St.MWC0.400.1050.0053.970.000.01
UtahP120.000.0977.7880.520.000.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.710.0944.4447.24-0.08-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0053.940.000.01
OregonP120.000.0962.5057.800.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.0971.4356.890.120.01
WyomingMWC0.280.0977.7873.060.150.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0977.7871.340.000.04
ArizonaP120.310.09100.0080.930.310.06
UCLAP120.310.0972.7357.470.140.01
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0070.570.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0054.040.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.350.0957.1447.630.05-0.00
XavierBE0.310.0980.0071.140.190.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0975.0065.380.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0944.4469.77-0.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0733.3363.92-0.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0742.8638.51-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0757.1456.250.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3332.44-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0744.4447.41-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0777.7851.200.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0744.4449.79-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0772.7362.660.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0013.85-0.00-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0730.0028.28-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0771.4360.170.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0722.2227.10-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0032.740.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0766.6776.390.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0740.0049.29-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0716.6727.17-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1459.520.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0642.8633.13-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0620.0033.83-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.770.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0015.96-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.400.0633.3339.81-0.13-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0683.3366.520.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0070.980.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0064.120.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3347.11-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.220.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6742.930.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0655.5631.620.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0660.0047.810.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3341.99-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.400.0677.7861.940.220.02
DePaulBE0.310.0666.6739.030.10-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.310.060.0035.83-0.31-0.02
WisconsinB100.620.0690.9188.300.510.05
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.380.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5746.92-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0622.2230.22-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.53-0.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4440.58-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0044.19-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.280.0666.6758.510.090.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0039.09-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5639.850.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.020.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4350.790.000.00
USCP120.000.0660.0037.100.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.560.0666.6772.150.190.03
WoffordSC0.000.0675.0077.280.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3347.31-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.73-0.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0633.3343.17-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8964.670.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.900.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0094.460.000.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.0671.4360.450.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0056.190.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0067.440.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7866.040.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0067.550.000.02
BYUWCC0.400.0366.6767.890.130.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0357.1447.350.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.8643.01-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.400.0310.0040.34-0.32-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.400.0370.0066.510.160.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.400.0325.0049.05-0.20-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.310.0320.0026.45-0.19-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0066.870.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0065.960.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.220.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.030.0013.10-0.28-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.350.030.0011.08-0.35-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0366.6773.810.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6743.24-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.350.0310.0018.39-0.28-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0375.0061.240.000.01
PortlandWCC0.350.0375.0049.190.17-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0337.5046.01-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5072.760.000.01
RiceCUSA0.350.0316.6725.01-0.23-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1145.10-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0355.5655.960.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.90-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.38-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6755.560.000.00
ButlerBE0.310.0380.0072.430.190.01
ElonCAA0.310.0337.5048.77-0.08-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.780.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.380.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0370.0066.410.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.82-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6751.450.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.900.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0357.1445.530.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.540.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0091.020.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5639.260.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0362.5078.030.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6765.150.000.01