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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:161.1
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:51
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:39



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-533.00.02%
21-633.40.05%
20-750.30.25%
19-859.60.75%
18-972.02.49%
17-1087.75.25%
16-11107.39.23%
15-12126.914.43%
14-13147.416.50%
13-14169.518.02%
12-15191.813.34%
11-16213.49.74%
10-17236.66.04%
9-18256.62.47%
8-19275.90.98%
7-20297.90.35%
6-21317.30.07%
5-22332.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Tulsa (112.6)AmerH77-68W100%0.0
11-19Missouri (99.0)SECA78-64L0%0.0
11-21Oregon St. (158.5)P12A55-42L0%0.0
11-24Louisiana Lafayette (204.2)SBN0-059%2.8
12-1Weber St. (183.0)BSkyA0-041%-2.8
12-7Missouri St. (115.1)MVCH0-052%0.7
12-13New Mexico St. (96.0)WACH0-049%-0.4
12-16Oklahoma (52.4)B12A0-012%-13.9
12-20Memphis (61.3)AmerA0-016%-12.1
12-22Missouri St. (115.1)MVCA0-029%-6.5
12-30Detroit (133.3)HorzA0-029%-6.6
1-2North Dakota St. (199.1)SumA0-047%-1.0
1-7IUPUI (274.6)SumH0-083%11.6
1-10Western Illinois (281.8)SumA0-058%2.5
1-14Nebraska Omaha (285.7)SumH0-081%10.4
1-17IPFW (152.8)SumH0-055%1.4
1-21Denver (135.7)SumA0-032%-5.7
1-24South Dakota St. (180.4)SumH0-066%4.8
1-31South Dakota (271.4)SumA0-056%1.8
2-5IUPUI (274.6)SumA0-064%4.4
2-7IPFW (152.8)SumA0-032%-5.8
2-12Western Illinois (281.8)SumH0-079%9.7
2-14South Dakota (271.4)SumH0-077%9.0
2-19Nebraska Omaha (285.7)SumA0-061%3.2
2-21South Dakota St. (180.4)SumA0-042%-2.3
2-26North Dakota St. (199.1)SumH0-070%6.1
2-28Denver (135.7)SumH0-055%1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSum34.7226.5233.3353.17-11.571.68
Western IllinoisSum0.004.670.0034.86-0.00-1.41
IUPUISum0.004.6633.3331.11-0.00-1.76
DenverSum0.004.6650.0062.880.001.20
South DakotaSum0.004.660.0037.10-0.00-1.20
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.6550.0036.040.00-1.30
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.6533.3349.42-0.00-0.05
IPFWSum0.004.6450.0066.090.001.49
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.6433.3348.29-0.00-0.16
Missouri St.MVC0.003.74100.0057.500.000.56
TulsaAmer16.672.05100.0053.9316.670.16
MemphisAmer0.001.990.0064.68-0.000.58
OklahomaB120.001.9550.0058.180.000.32
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.781.880.0048.87-2.78-0.04
MissouriSEC16.671.8850.0048.600.00-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.001.880.0055.45-0.000.21
DetroitHorz0.001.850.0054.89-0.000.18
New Mexico St.WAC0.001.8533.3366.19-0.000.60
Oregon St.P1216.671.85100.0048.2316.67-0.07
IdahoBSky0.000.2850.0047.220.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.27100.0068.990.000.10
Wichita St.MVC0.000.27100.0084.100.000.18
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2550.0054.580.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.240.0043.21-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC2.780.2350.0059.030.000.04
MontanaBSky0.000.210.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.210.0024.76-0.00-0.11
Idaho St.BSky0.000.200.0028.50-0.00-0.09
DrakeMVC0.000.200.0028.82-0.00-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.000.20100.0063.410.000.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2050.0051.340.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.190.0033.60-0.00-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.190.0033.64-0.00-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.170.0051.04-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz2.780.1766.6752.470.930.01
BradleyMVC0.000.170.0025.34-0.00-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1650.0044.430.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.16100.0062.840.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.160.0038.65-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.16100.0053.870.000.01
StanfordP120.000.16100.0068.290.000.06
AkronMAC0.000.1566.6763.580.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1450.0054.170.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1433.3336.31-0.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.14100.0084.130.000.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.140.0038.29-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1433.3351.38-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.140.0047.54-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.1350.0043.560.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.13100.0060.570.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1366.6755.230.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1366.6742.560.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.13100.0044.620.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.130.0058.17-0.000.02
BaylorB120.000.13100.0068.940.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0027.18-0.00-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.13100.0075.400.000.07
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0055.810.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.130.0034.69-0.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.13100.0065.750.000.04
SeattleWAC0.000.1333.3347.72-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1333.3367.72-0.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.13100.0029.380.00-0.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1350.0033.930.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.13100.0045.610.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.130.0036.14-0.00-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.130.0053.38-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.110.0041.45-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1166.6754.260.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.10100.0064.330.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.100.0032.16-0.00-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.100.0041.63-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.10100.0058.420.000.02
OregonP120.000.10100.0070.690.000.04
UCLAP120.000.10100.0061.850.000.02
UtahP120.000.1066.6770.360.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.10100.0056.460.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.10100.0068.970.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.1066.6760.730.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.10100.0064.850.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.10100.0036.560.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.10100.0070.600.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.10100.0056.150.000.01
XavierBE0.000.09100.0076.430.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0062.15-0.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.07100.0061.420.000.02
IowaB100.000.0750.0067.840.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.070.0027.11-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0067.860.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0733.3354.24-0.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0029.930.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0052.770.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0024.22-0.00-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0750.0045.610.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0038.240.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0033.39-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0052.690.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0024.25-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0033.640.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0035.17-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.070.0015.68-0.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0044.57-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0034.26-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0050.900.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.070.0046.93-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0750.0062.510.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.07100.0052.850.000.00
TroySB0.000.070.0046.30-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0053.20-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0045.330.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0766.6759.850.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0020.87-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0071.730.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.070.0065.86-0.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.07100.0061.270.000.01
KansasB120.000.0750.0060.200.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0054.250.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.07100.0051.030.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0750.0052.120.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.070.0033.70-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.07100.0066.070.000.02
TCUB120.000.07100.0054.240.000.01
USCP120.000.0750.0026.710.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.0733.3327.05-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.07100.0068.580.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0750.0052.540.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0072.160.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.540.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3344.98-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.68-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0633.3334.47-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.560.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0062.010.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.37-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0633.3333.43-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0061.070.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6764.990.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6746.160.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.630.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0666.6774.980.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0063.380.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0034.15-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.29-0.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0051.000.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0062.660.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.04100.0069.310.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.04100.0051.300.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0450.0046.900.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3335.37-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0366.6768.330.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.780.030.0029.61-2.78-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.540.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0073.240.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.420.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.800.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0022.09-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.53-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0325.0029.11-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.85-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0050.390.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.680.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.060.000.00
RiceCUSA4.170.0350.0031.730.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0054.32-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0055.900.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0040.300.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.950.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.47-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.83-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0055.220.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.54-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.000.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0062.910.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.220.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.390.00-0.00