live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Oral Roberts

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:191.0
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:169
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16191.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA68-74W100%0.0
11-13Kansas St. (51.0)B12A71-63L0%0.0
11-16Texas St. (307.0)SBH82-65W100%0.0
11-21Saint Louis (27.0)A10A72-55L0%0.0
11-23Wisconsin (6.0)B10A76-67L0%0.0
11-26Georgia Southern (303.0)SCN65-67W100%0.0
11-27Bowling Green (194.0)MACN56-63W100%0.0
12-7Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA71-58L0%0.0
12-13Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH67-70L0%0.0
12-16Akron (93.0)MACA74-64L0%0.0
12-30Baylor (30.0)B12A81-55L0%0.0
1-2Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH88-55W100%0.0
1-4Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH64-71L0%0.0
1-11Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH93-80W100%0.0
1-23Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH69-72L0%0.0
1-25Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH83-87L0%0.0
1-30Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndA73-72L0%0.0
2-1McNeese St. (272.0)SlndA79-68L0%0.0
2-6New Orleans (260.0)SlndH79-59W100%0.0
2-8Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH71-54W100%0.0
2-13Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA66-80W100%0.0
2-15Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA74-72L0%0.0
2-22Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA50-63W100%0.0
2-27Lamar (344.0)SlndH75-67W100%0.0
3-1Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH80-73W100%0.0
3-6Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA83-72L0%0.0
3-8Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA88-82L0%0.0
3-12McNeese St. (272.0)SlndN66-62W100%0.0
3-13Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndN70-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oral RobertsSlnd26.3226.3246.3446.34-1.93-1.93
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.344.3492.5992.593.703.70
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.314.3170.3770.371.761.76
Northwestern St.Slnd4.304.3044.0044.00-0.52-0.52
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.254.2550.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd4.234.2326.0926.09-2.02-2.02
McNeese St.Slnd4.194.1924.0024.00-2.18-2.18
Houston BaptistSlnd4.194.1916.0016.00-2.85-2.85
Nicholls St.Slnd2.632.6344.0044.00-0.32-0.32
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.532.5332.0032.00-0.91-0.91
LamarSlnd2.532.5311.1111.11-1.96-1.96
New OrleansSlnd2.482.4838.1038.10-0.59-0.59
Wichita St.MVC1.861.86100.00100.001.861.86
Kansas St.B121.851.8561.2961.290.420.42
BaylorB121.841.8465.6265.620.580.58
Bowling GreenMAC1.831.8336.6736.67-0.49-0.49
Missouri St.MVC1.831.8360.0060.000.370.37
Saint LouisA101.801.8080.0080.001.081.08
Texas St.SB1.781.7821.4321.43-1.02-1.02
AkronMAC1.781.7862.5062.500.440.44
WisconsinB101.781.7878.1278.121.001.00
TulsaCUSA1.781.7865.6265.620.560.56
Georgia SouthernSC1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
TexasB120.290.2969.7069.700.110.11
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.2578.7978.790.140.14
North TexasCUSA0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.250.2578.7978.790.140.14
Texas TechB120.240.2443.7543.75-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
LSUSEC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
TroySB0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
RiceCUSA0.180.1817.8617.86-0.12-0.12
TCUB120.180.1824.1424.14-0.10-0.10
MinnesotaB100.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
West VirginiaB120.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Michigan St.B100.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
SMUAmer0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
ToledoMAC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1234.6234.62-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckySB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
AuburnSEC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
LibertyBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0687.1087.100.050.05
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0462.0762.070.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01