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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:147.4
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:124
Current SOS:154
Current Record:7-4
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:52



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-638.00.03%
24-746.80.05%
23-857.50.37%
22-971.31.20%
21-1085.63.72%
20-11101.18.31%
19-12117.413.17%
18-13133.817.96%
17-14150.919.21%
16-15168.116.88%
15-16185.610.26%
14-17204.35.63%
13-18222.72.33%
12-19240.80.72%
11-20256.20.13%
10-21283.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Virginia (6.7)ACCH51-79L0%0.0
11-17Radford (177.6)BSthH74-71W100%0.0
11-19Longwood (319.5)BSthH82-60W100%0.0
11-24Colgate (186.4)PatH77-71W100%0.0
11-26Sacred Heart (147.7)NECH79-72W100%0.0
11-28Ohio St. (14.5)B10A73-56L0%0.0
12-2Campbell (226.0)BSthH63-61W100%0.0
12-7Richmond (77.7)A10H51-46W100%0.0
12-13East Carolina (231.8)AmerA70-58L0%0.0
12-17Ball St. (228.6)MACA52-72W100%0.0
12-20High Point (132.3)BSthH71-80L0%0.0
12-22Norfolk St. (159.2)MEACH0-065%4.6
12-29Valparaiso (86.0)HorzH0-044%-1.8
1-3Towson (220.1)CAAH0-076%8.2
1-5College of Charleston (184.8)CAAA0-038%-3.5
1-8Northeastern (123.6)CAAH0-055%1.6
1-10William & Mary (102.8)CAAA0-026%-7.6
1-14Drexel (237.1)CAAA0-044%-1.6
1-17Elon (183.1)CAAH0-064%4.2
1-22Northeastern (123.6)CAAA0-028%-6.8
1-24Hofstra (76.2)CAAA0-013%-13.2
1-28Delaware (331.5)CAAH0-094%18.1
1-31William & Mary (102.8)CAAH0-053%0.7
2-4UNC Wilmington (113.7)CAAH0-057%2.2
2-7Towson (220.1)CAAA0-050%-0.1
2-11Delaware (331.5)CAAA0-080%9.7
2-14Elon (183.1)CAAA0-036%-4.1
2-18Drexel (237.1)CAAH0-072%6.7
2-21College of Charleston (184.8)CAAH0-066%4.9
2-25UNC Wilmington (113.7)CAAA0-030%-6.2
2-28Hofstra (76.2)CAAH0-034%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA27.6926.3555.5651.313.080.69
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.254.1657.1455.250.040.44
William & MaryCAA0.484.1557.1456.790.070.56
College of CharlestonCAA0.284.1445.4544.92-0.03-0.42
HofstraCAA0.004.1470.0076.160.002.17
NortheasternCAA0.004.1470.0061.110.000.92
TowsonCAA0.004.1160.0047.880.00-0.17
DelawareCAA0.004.110.008.22-0.00-3.43
ElonCAA0.004.1144.4451.17-0.000.10
DrexelCAA0.004.1022.2235.43-0.00-1.20
CampbellBSth5.231.9228.5745.56-2.24-0.17
High PointBSth4.981.8762.5060.321.240.39
RichmondA105.051.7866.6759.631.680.34
RadfordBSth4.771.7862.5060.821.190.39
LongwoodBSth4.551.7622.2226.77-2.53-0.82
Ohio St.B105.561.7380.0081.663.341.09
ColgatePat5.291.6922.2244.06-2.94-0.20
Sacred HeartNEC5.261.6962.5063.081.320.44
Norfolk St.MEAC0.231.6954.5560.450.020.35
East CarolinaAmer4.551.6725.0035.69-2.27-0.48
Ball St.MAC4.551.6728.5738.40-1.95-0.39
ValparaisoHorz0.281.6481.8273.810.180.78
VirginiaACC4.551.64100.0085.604.551.17
LibertyBSth0.000.3125.0035.39-0.00-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2837.5050.31-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.2614.2944.44-0.18-0.03
La SalleA100.450.2454.5552.730.040.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2342.8649.51-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.230.008.60-0.00-0.19
WinthropBSth0.000.2325.0044.27-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.280.2288.8977.320.220.12
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.2057.1470.520.000.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.480.2020.0035.33-0.29-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.1920.0027.29-0.15-0.09
HowardMEAC0.480.1730.0043.74-0.19-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1616.6735.27-0.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.1663.6456.430.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1637.5039.65-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0014.00-0.00-0.12
NavyPat0.000.1620.0022.16-0.00-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.230.1490.0082.310.180.09
North CarolinaACC0.460.1472.7374.850.210.07
Miami OHMAC0.230.1430.0028.65-0.09-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.210.14100.0084.930.210.10
Miami FLACC0.000.1481.8266.010.000.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1330.0041.69-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.230.1375.0061.480.110.03
CornellIvy0.230.1155.5648.710.03-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.280.1136.3646.72-0.08-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1118.1830.76-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.1140.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.1191.6755.310.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1155.5652.610.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.1177.7868.780.000.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1130.0039.59-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.1137.5041.94-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1154.5564.070.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1150.0058.070.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1140.0041.32-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1177.7865.110.000.03
George WashingtonA100.450.1166.6765.500.150.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.1127.2735.36-0.10-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1133.3345.04-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.1112.5030.56-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.1033.3330.21-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0977.7870.890.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.0942.8637.71-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.0916.6733.39-0.17-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.0975.0066.220.110.03
Green BayHorz0.250.0975.0077.010.130.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.0945.4543.23-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.0833.3349.35-0.08-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0840.0032.26-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0880.0067.830.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0860.0043.160.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0860.0057.890.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.250.0842.8649.02-0.04-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.460.080.0023.69-0.46-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.250.0870.0059.220.100.02
Virginia TechACC0.250.0860.0038.030.05-0.02
DukeACC0.000.08100.0087.090.000.06
NorthwesternB100.000.0863.6442.810.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0833.3341.20-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0830.0043.15-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.230.0818.1825.30-0.14-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.250.0857.1453.770.040.01
LafayettePat0.250.0866.6767.650.080.03
IowaB100.230.0866.6759.420.080.02
RutgersB100.230.0854.5532.590.02-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0845.4537.60-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0866.6767.930.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0854.5541.980.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0885.7172.910.000.04
VCUA100.230.0872.7375.740.100.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0854.5552.490.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0663.6465.220.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.98-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.88-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.550.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.0618.1837.71-0.16-0.01
HawaiiBW0.510.0666.6754.470.170.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.530.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.000.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.200.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0058.160.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0031.48-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8633.27-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.45-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0642.8626.99-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.520.000.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.410.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.93-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.250.0660.0043.890.05-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0670.0064.680.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0011.94-0.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.790.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0916.15-0.00-0.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.0062.070.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0057.820.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.320.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.620.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.900.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.970.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0645.4549.62-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.280.0527.2728.86-0.13-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6754.130.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0563.6463.240.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5745.89-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0540.0036.66-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0544.4454.06-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3328.13-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0550.0058.370.000.01
New HampshireAE0.480.0550.0060.410.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0555.5665.210.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0560.0058.120.000.01
MarylandB100.230.0590.9168.230.190.02
UMass LowellAE0.460.0550.0050.490.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0537.5034.64-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0540.0037.64-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0522.2231.81-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0581.8263.330.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0516.6743.20-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0510.0018.05-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0580.0063.910.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0530.0038.01-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0550.0040.450.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0566.6759.370.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0562.5058.080.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0544.4436.80-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3355.24-0.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0570.0061.320.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0514.2932.16-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.9170.080.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0318.1819.46-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.770.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.0340.0043.04-0.06-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.770.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.280.030.009.06-0.28-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.280.0330.0029.75-0.11-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0054.190.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0311.1120.80-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0360.0065.120.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7362.220.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0370.0051.040.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.280.0372.7372.580.130.01
SienaMAAC0.250.0333.3349.54-0.08-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.280.0312.5026.89-0.21-0.01
TCUB120.250.03100.0067.700.250.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.250.0333.3334.30-0.08-0.01
UtahP120.280.0380.0080.520.170.02
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.240.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.230.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.250.0327.2729.17-0.11-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.61-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.260.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3648.28-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.02-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3648.18-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0372.7375.710.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.230.0366.6764.770.080.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0052.97-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
AlbanyAE0.230.0340.0055.01-0.050.00
Arizona St.P120.230.0354.5548.490.02-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.230.030.0011.24-0.23-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.600.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.80-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0380.0053.260.000.00
HartfordAE0.250.0350.0050.620.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6777.120.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0051.780.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.230.030.0015.00-0.23-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6761.820.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.06-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.11-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0375.0065.140.000.01
MarquetteBE0.210.0360.0048.980.04-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.210.0316.6737.21-0.14-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.230.0390.9183.090.190.02
PepperdineWCC0.230.0366.6755.670.080.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.270.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.230.030.0031.89-0.23-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.840.000.02