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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:82.6
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:129
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-761.55.24%
22-870.222.66%
21-979.834.78%
20-1091.626.86%
19-11104.69.10%
18-12118.91.28%
17-13135.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Richmond (108.5)A10A75-87W100%0.0
11-16West Virginia (8.7)B12N86-73L0%0.0
11-20FIU (232.8)CUSAH64-61W100%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (150.2)SumH64-74L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Martin (241.8)OVCH75-78L0%0.0
11-27Marshall (127.3)CUSAA75-89W100%0.0
11-30Radford (170.0)BSthA68-70W100%0.0
12-3Western Michigan (204.4)MACH63-57W100%0.0
12-6Marshall (127.3)CUSAH107-84W100%0.0
12-12George Mason (185.3)A10H69-46W100%0.0
12-20East Carolina (186.0)AmerH67-61W100%0.0
12-22Mount St. Mary's (232.5)NECH73-53W100%0.0
12-31College of Charleston (94.7)CAAH62-65L0%0.0
1-2Delaware (274.3)CAAA63-73W100%0.0
1-7Elon (137.9)CAAH73-79L0%0.0
1-9Towson (154.8)CAAH73-59W100%0.0
1-14Northeastern (148.7)CAAA63-75W100%0.0
1-16Hofstra (74.6)CAAA82-86W100%0.0
1-21Drexel (265.3)CAAH68-45W100%0.0
1-23Elon (137.9)CAAA64-82W100%0.0
1-28UNC Wilmington (60.7)CAAH73-78L0%0.0
1-31William & Mary (40.6)CAAA68-62L0%0.0
2-4Drexel (265.3)CAAA56-78W100%0.0
2-7Hofstra (74.6)CAAH98-95W100%0.0
2-11College of Charleston (94.7)CAAA0-050%-0.1
2-13UNC Wilmington (60.7)CAAA0-038%-3.3
2-18Northeastern (148.7)CAAH0-078%8.4
2-20Delaware (274.3)CAAH0-095%17.5
2-25Towson (154.8)CAAA0-063%3.5
2-27William & Mary (40.6)CAAH0-062%3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA26.4726.4465.8765.898.408.40
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.924.3575.0072.811.461.99
ElonCAA4.864.3352.3850.450.230.04
NortheasternCAA2.794.3147.8349.18-0.12-0.07
TowsonCAA2.834.3068.1862.791.031.10
College of CharlestonCAA2.834.3061.9059.830.670.85
DelawareCAA2.694.2722.7324.85-1.47-2.15
HofstraCAA4.824.2771.4368.962.061.62
DrexelCAA4.774.2715.0019.54-3.34-2.60
William & MaryCAA2.734.2770.0069.931.091.70
MarshallCUSA4.263.3954.5554.710.390.32
FIUCUSA2.351.8442.8646.91-0.34-0.11
East CarolinaAmer2.181.7945.4543.40-0.20-0.24
Western MichiganMAC2.181.7835.0036.73-0.65-0.47
George MasonA102.181.7836.3635.27-0.59-0.52
West VirginiaB122.221.7581.8278.881.411.01
RichmondA102.171.7557.1456.370.310.22
RadfordBSth2.131.7352.3853.190.100.11
Tennessee MartinOVC2.181.7345.4548.36-0.20-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.171.7241.6747.02-0.36-0.10
Oral RobertsSum2.181.7236.3638.93-0.59-0.38
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.360.2822.7327.19-0.20-0.13
La SalleA100.280.2320.0020.45-0.17-0.14
Old DominionCUSA0.230.2356.5262.790.030.06
CharlotteCUSA0.270.2234.7840.93-0.08-0.04
CampbellBSth0.140.1828.5729.64-0.06-0.07
High PointBSth0.190.1855.0057.480.020.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.230.1865.2266.170.070.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.1752.0050.240.010.00
DavidsonA100.140.1760.0057.950.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1750.0051.900.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1734.7837.06-0.05-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1745.8342.26-0.02-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1671.4369.420.060.06
UABCUSA0.130.1682.6179.410.090.10
LibertyBSth0.150.1534.7836.50-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.230.1586.3679.140.170.09
VCUA100.140.1473.9173.910.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1445.4546.27-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.1250.0051.190.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1260.0060.100.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.1250.0049.090.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.140.1260.8760.760.030.03
DaytonA100.090.1286.3682.380.070.08
VirginiaACC0.140.1282.6178.070.090.06
Miami FLACC0.090.1281.8276.750.060.06
BradleyMVC0.090.1112.5012.85-0.07-0.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.190.1182.6178.890.120.07
LongwoodBSth0.140.1122.7324.96-0.08-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.130.1181.8282.630.090.07
St. BonaventureA100.180.1171.4368.950.080.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1140.9143.53-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.1120.0019.67-0.03-0.07
TempleAmer0.140.1163.6459.840.040.02
UTEPCUSA0.130.1152.1751.940.010.00
UTSACUSA0.130.1113.6413.62-0.10-0.08
Saint LouisA100.090.1136.3633.47-0.02-0.04
Texas TechB120.140.1159.0953.170.030.01
StetsonASun0.190.1123.8127.69-0.10-0.05
George WashingtonA100.090.1178.2674.430.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.0956.0052.770.010.01
HowardMEAC0.100.0936.3638.93-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0928.5732.70-0.04-0.03
LSUSEC0.090.0965.2260.250.030.02
Penn St.B100.140.0950.0046.710.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.140.0970.8368.570.060.03
San DiegoWCC0.140.0931.8229.13-0.05-0.04
SienaMAAC0.140.0964.0064.140.040.02
PennIvy0.140.0938.8937.62-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0952.1754.150.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.0959.0958.870.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0963.1658.810.030.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0947.6245.85-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0821.7423.39-0.08-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.090.0834.7837.17-0.03-0.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0865.2259.020.030.02
UMBCAE0.090.0824.0026.33-0.05-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.040.0831.8230.47-0.02-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0886.9682.610.070.05
TulsaAmer0.140.0865.2261.430.040.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.0831.8236.15-0.05-0.02
AkronMAC0.140.0881.8280.030.090.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.0847.8348.88-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0871.4368.720.020.03
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0850.0052.350.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.090.0833.3333.02-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.140.0861.9059.450.030.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0828.5729.68-0.04-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0831.5831.99-0.02-0.03
FordhamA100.090.0855.0052.260.010.00
MarylandB100.130.0887.5083.700.100.05
WagnerNEC0.130.0863.6465.030.040.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.350.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.320.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.800.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0645.4547.56-0.01-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0640.0039.79-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0639.1337.73-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0679.1780.720.060.04
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.390.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0656.5256.320.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0663.6462.150.020.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0641.6741.24-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.870.020.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.06-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.26-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.440.010.02
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0625.0026.86-0.05-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0628.5733.37-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0626.0929.19-0.04-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.54-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0663.6459.220.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0630.4326.54-0.02-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0652.3847.040.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0644.0045.27-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0666.6765.220.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.64-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.0912.25-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.090.0675.0071.700.050.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0636.8441.40-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0669.5764.850.040.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0652.1751.960.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0663.6459.460.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0622.7324.79-0.02-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0669.5766.240.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0619.0525.89-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0645.4549.70-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0617.3920.66-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.6415.79-0.03-0.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0666.6762.580.030.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0676.1972.290.050.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0659.0960.100.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0627.2731.06-0.04-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.9686.360.030.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0654.1749.230.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.090.0620.8324.10-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.090.0669.5769.090.040.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0654.1755.570.000.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0635.0038.49-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.040.0625.0029.27-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0683.3383.030.030.04
VermontAE0.040.0652.0054.870.000.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0565.2262.840.030.01
DuquesneA100.050.0563.6456.440.010.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0565.2266.070.030.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0540.9139.35-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0554.1755.070.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0556.5256.630.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0572.7366.460.020.02
BryantNEC0.040.0525.0026.39-0.02-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0513.0413.55-0.03-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0570.8370.840.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0582.6181.140.060.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0573.9170.050.020.02
KansasB120.050.0581.8277.600.030.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0560.8758.370.020.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0560.8760.780.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0525.0033.17-0.04-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0528.0030.74-0.04-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0572.7372.060.040.02
SMUAmer0.050.0590.9186.160.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0537.5043.36-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0550.0049.450.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0545.8339.31-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0547.8346.89-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0566.6762.220.020.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0533.3332.31-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0552.3845.690.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.090.0543.4842.49-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.57-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.690.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.8763.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.12-0.04-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.30-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.54-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.35-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.160.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0366.6762.630.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.690.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.45-0.03-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0356.5260.010.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.57-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.040.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.880.040.02
BucknellPat0.040.0354.5558.170.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.80-0.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.490.020.01
FurmanSC0.040.0354.1754.070.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.0378.2676.800.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.08-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.530.020.01
LehighPat0.040.0336.3639.78-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.36-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.08-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0358.3354.120.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.040.0365.2261.090.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00