James Madison

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	250.9
Current RPI:	258
Expected SOS:	244
Current SOS:	262
Current Record:	10-15
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	3-10
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.24%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	215
Expected OOC SOS:	297

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	201.2	0.04%
15-16	216.1	1.44%
14-17	229.6	10.15%
13-18	243.6	33.51%
12-19	257.1	42.16%
11-20	269.8	12.14%
10-21	280.2	0.55%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Canisius (323.0)	MAAC	H	82-73	W	100%	0.0
11-19	La Salle (68.4)	A10	A	92-83	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	H	77-82	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Rider (208.7)	MAAC	N	69-86	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Pennsylvania (114.9)	Ivy	A	58-60	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Hofstra (237.3)	CAA	A	60-62	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Kent St. (84.6)	MAC	H	51-71	L	0%	0.0
12-19	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	H	67-49	W	100%	0.0
12-22	George Washington (196.0)	A10	A	57-62	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Rhode Island (249.7)	A10	N	79-60	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Stetson (263.4)	ASun	N	69-71	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Old Dominion (124.4)	CAA	H	61-67	L	0%	0.0
1-4	William & Mary (303.9)	CAA	A	68-61	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Northeastern (162.8)	CAA	H	56-68	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Hampton (310.6)	MEAC	H	74-67	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)	CAA	A	65-45	L	0%	0.0
1-14	George Mason (95.3)	CAA	H	83-89	L	0%	0.0
1-18	NC Wilmington (206.4)	CAA	A	61-69	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Hofstra (237.3)	CAA	H	69-71	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	A	74-58	L	0%	0.0
1-26	William & Mary (303.9)	CAA	H	59-47	W	100%	0.0
1-28	George Mason (95.3)	CAA	A	89-79	L	0%	0.0
1-30	East Tennessee St. (197.9)	ASun	A	70-56	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Old Dominion (124.4)	CAA	A	80-71	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Delaware (181.6)	CAA	H	80-85	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Drexel (79.6)	CAA	H	0-0		22%	-8.5
2-11	Towson (304.6)	CAA	A	0-0		79%	8.9
2-14	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	H	0-0		23%	-8.1
2-18	Detroit (183.0)	Horz	A	0-0		21%	-8.8
2-22	Drexel (79.6)	CAA	A	0-0		8%	-15.0
2-25	Towson (304.6)	CAA	H	0-0		92%	15.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
James Madison	CAA	26.38	26.20	40.00	40.09	-5.28	-5.19
Drexel	CAA	0.62	3.94	79.17	77.56	0.36	2.17
William & Mary	CAA	4.50	3.92	9.09	10.81	-3.68	-3.07
Towson	CAA	0.74	3.92	4.00	4.64	-0.68	-3.55
George Mason	CAA	4.54	3.92	73.91	70.58	2.17	1.61
Georgia St.	CAA	2.54	3.89	65.22	68.36	0.77	1.43
Hofstra	CAA	4.50	3.89	30.43	34.39	-1.76	-1.22
Old Dominion	CAA	4.54	3.89	56.52	55.42	0.59	0.42
Delaware	CAA	2.66	2.46	45.45	48.90	-0.24	-0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.66	2.44	79.17	77.35	1.55	1.33
Northeastern	CAA	2.61	2.44	45.45	46.72	-0.24	-0.16
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.62	2.38	40.91	37.41	-0.48	-0.60
La Salle	A10	2.30	1.88	69.57	67.79	0.90	0.67
Rhode Island	A10	2.29	1.82	17.39	17.96	-1.49	-1.17
Rider	MAAC	2.17	1.80	41.67	41.02	-0.36	-0.32
George Washington	A10	2.12	1.74	36.36	33.16	-0.58	-0.59
Hampton	MEAC	2.12	1.72	36.36	38.46	-0.58	-0.40
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.17	1.72	57.14	58.70	0.31	0.30
Robert Morris	NEC	2.17	1.72	66.67	69.06	0.72	0.65
East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.04	1.67	47.62	50.26	-0.10	0.01
Stetson	ASun	2.05	1.67	31.82	30.66	-0.74	-0.65
Canisius	MAAC	2.04	1.66	18.18	20.47	-1.30	-0.98
Detroit	Horz	0.04	1.64	47.83	47.79	-0.00	-0.07
Kent St.	MAC	2.00	1.61	70.00	67.95	0.80	0.58
The Citadel	SC	2.00	1.61	10.00	11.91	-1.60	-1.23
Manhattan	MAAC	0.33	0.32	68.00	69.08	0.12	0.12
Richmond	A10	0.33	0.26	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.21	0.24	82.61	81.41	0.14	0.15
Liberty	BSth	0.30	0.22	27.27	27.33	-0.13	-0.10
Fairfield	MAAC	0.21	0.21	56.52	54.88	0.03	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.29	0.21	79.17	80.14	0.17	0.13
Howard	MEAC	0.33	0.21	21.74	25.63	-0.19	-0.10
Massachusetts	A10	0.17	0.21	73.91	68.65	0.08	0.08
Belmont	ASun	0.09	0.17	70.83	73.74	0.04	0.08
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.25	0.16	20.83	23.73	-0.15	-0.08
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.16	36.00	40.36	-0.02	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.25	0.16	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.16	43.48	45.03	-0.01	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.16	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.17	0.16	77.27	75.07	0.09	0.08
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.16	62.50	62.42	0.02	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.20	0.16	36.36	39.73	-0.05	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.16	81.82	76.80	0.05	0.08
Duquesne	A10	0.20	0.16	59.09	56.38	0.04	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.13	0.14	58.33	59.92	0.02	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.14	0.14	34.78	33.38	-0.04	-0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.13	0.14	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.17	0.13	78.26	74.29	0.10	0.07
Marist	MAAC	0.21	0.13	34.78	33.44	-0.06	-0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.12	0.13	0.00	4.04	-0.12	-0.12
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.13	60.00	59.09	0.03	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.09	0.13	13.04	14.47	-0.06	-0.09
Vermont	AE	0.12	0.13	61.54	63.84	0.03	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.13	40.91	34.45	-0.02	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.04	0.13	21.74	22.75	-0.02	-0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.13	27.27	23.78	-0.08	-0.07
Long Island	NEC	0.20	0.13	70.83	71.06	0.08	0.05
Monmouth	NEC	0.20	0.13	28.00	28.87	-0.09	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.12	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.13	0.12	20.83	23.61	-0.08	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.18	0.12	8.33	10.90	-0.15	-0.09
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.12	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.18	0.12	72.00	72.22	0.08	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.12	48.00	48.07	-0.01	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.13	0.12	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.14	0.11	77.27	77.37	0.07	0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.11	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.11	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.11	68.18	67.98	0.03	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.11	43.48	40.24	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.11	30.00	34.18	-0.05	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.11	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.13	0.11	38.89	41.49	-0.03	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.04	0.11	69.57	70.42	0.02	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.17	0.11	71.43	66.55	0.07	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.11	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.11	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.11	33.33	37.11	-0.04	-0.03
Missouri	B12	0.16	0.11	91.67	87.92	0.14	0.08
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.10	63.64	63.17	0.02	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.17	0.10	62.50	59.52	0.04	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.17	0.10	82.61	84.58	0.11	0.07
Furman	SC	0.14	0.09	45.45	47.20	-0.01	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.09	0.09	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.13	0.09	55.00	60.35	0.01	0.02
Samford	SC	0.09	0.08	33.33	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.08	68.42	66.51	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.04	0.08	18.18	19.91	-0.03	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.08	81.82	77.18	0.06	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.08	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.08	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	14.29	16.80	-0.06	-0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.08	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.08	36.84	41.47	-0.02	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.08	43.48	42.98	-0.02	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.12	0.08	8.70	13.12	-0.10	-0.06
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.08	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.04	0.08	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.08	77.27	77.70	0.02	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.69	0.03	0.02
Albany	AE	0.08	0.08	57.69	58.54	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.12	0.08	73.91	75.03	0.06	0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.69	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	61.43	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.08	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.12	0.08	56.52	55.97	0.02	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.08	72.22	63.23	0.04	0.02
Elon	SC	0.10	0.06	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.06	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.06	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.06	34.78	37.27	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.09	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.04	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.09	0.06	31.82	32.81	-0.03	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.09	0.06	40.91	41.68	-0.02	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.04	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.04	0.06	22.73	24.64	-0.02	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.06	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.06	28.57	29.05	-0.00	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.06	26.32	28.82	-0.04	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.06	38.10	40.84	-0.02	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.06	65.22	63.55	0.00	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.00	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.00	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.06	56.52	57.81	0.00	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.00	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.05	79.17	76.62	0.05	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.05	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.05	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.05	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.04	0.05	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.05	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.04	0.05	68.18	68.98	0.01	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.05	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.05	73.91	74.94	0.04	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.04	0.05	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.04	0.05	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	23.81	33.67	-0.05	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.04	0.05	21.74	21.75	-0.02	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.05	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.01
Washington	P12	0.04	0.05	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.00	0.05	34.78	34.75	-0.00	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.04	0.05	8.33	10.84	-0.03	-0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.05	30.43	29.49	-0.03	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	55.00	54.81	0.00	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.05	14.29	17.12	-0.00	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.05	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.05	8.70	12.14	-0.07	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.05	78.26	78.42	0.00	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.05	96.00	93.53	0.07	0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.05	61.90	67.29	0.00	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.00	0.05	69.57	66.33	0.00	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.05	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.05	33.33	37.75	-0.00	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.04	0.05	56.52	57.14	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.05	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.00	0.03	27.27	35.05	-0.00	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.42	68.62	0.02	0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.04	0.03	72.73	71.57	0.02	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.04	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	35.72	-0.00	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.03	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	57.42	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.04	0.03	57.69	58.27	0.01	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.04	0.03	62.50	62.07	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.04	0.03	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.04	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.04	0.03	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.00	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.04	0.03	34.78	35.19	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.04	0.03	82.61	81.43	0.03	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.29	-0.04	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.00	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.04	0.03	34.78	32.10	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.98	0.02	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.04	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.01
American	Pat	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.04	0.03	75.00	74.62	0.02	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.04	0.03	73.91	68.41	0.02	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.00	0.03	42.11	45.89	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.04	0.03	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.04	0.03	26.32	29.64	-0.02	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.04	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.04	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.04	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.03	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.04	0.03	20.83	22.81	-0.02	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.04	0.03	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.03	69.57	71.58	0.02	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.04	0.03	26.09	28.61	-0.02	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.04	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.04	0.03	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00