live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:103.0
Current RPI:103
Expected SOS:124
Current SOS:124
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11103.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Richmond (121.0)A10A75-87W100%0.0
11-16West Virginia (10.0)B12N86-73L0%0.0
11-20FIU (270.0)CUSAH64-61W100%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH64-74L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH75-78L0%0.0
11-27Marshall (128.0)CUSAA75-89W100%0.0
11-30Radford (192.0)BSthA68-70W100%0.0
12-3Western Michigan (202.0)MACH63-57W100%0.0
12-6Marshall (128.0)CUSAH107-84W100%0.0
12-12George Mason (201.0)A10H69-46W100%0.0
12-20East Carolina (217.0)AmerH67-61W100%0.0
12-22Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH73-53W100%0.0
12-31College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH62-65L0%0.0
1-2Delaware (274.0)CAAA63-73W100%0.0
1-7Elon (160.0)CAAH73-79L0%0.0
1-9Towson (150.0)CAAH73-59W100%0.0
1-14Northeastern (109.0)CAAA63-75W100%0.0
1-16Hofstra (54.0)CAAA82-86W100%0.0
1-21Drexel (247.0)CAAH68-45W100%0.0
1-23Elon (160.0)CAAA64-82W100%0.0
1-28UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH73-78L0%0.0
1-31William & Mary (67.0)CAAA68-62L0%0.0
2-4Drexel (247.0)CAAA56-78W100%0.0
2-7Hofstra (54.0)CAAH98-95W100%0.0
2-11College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA52-56W100%0.0
2-13UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA78-68L0%0.0
2-18Northeastern (109.0)CAAH94-95L0%0.0
2-20Delaware (274.0)CAAH75-50W100%0.0
2-25Towson (150.0)CAAA69-67L0%0.0
2-27William & Mary (67.0)CAAH71-65W100%0.0
3-5William & Mary (67.0)CAAN64-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA26.4526.4561.1561.155.905.90
William & MaryCAA5.745.7461.5461.541.321.32
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.374.3775.0075.002.182.18
HofstraCAA4.334.3376.6776.672.312.31
NortheasternCAA4.274.2753.3353.330.280.28
College of CharlestonCAA4.264.2653.5753.570.300.30
ElonCAA4.244.2446.4346.43-0.30-0.30
DrexelCAA4.244.2421.4321.43-2.42-2.42
TowsonCAA4.214.2160.7160.710.900.90
DelawareCAA4.194.1925.0025.00-2.09-2.09
MarshallCUSA3.283.2854.8454.840.320.32
FIUCUSA1.771.7737.9337.93-0.43-0.43
East CarolinaAmer1.721.7238.7138.71-0.39-0.39
George MasonA101.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
Western MichiganMAC1.721.7237.9337.93-0.41-0.41
RichmondA101.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
West VirginiaB121.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
Tennessee MartinOVC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.671.6743.7543.75-0.21-0.21
RadfordBSth1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.250.2522.5822.58-0.14-0.14
Old DominionCUSA0.230.2362.8662.860.060.06
La SalleA100.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
CharlotteCUSA0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.2070.9770.970.080.08
High PointBSth0.190.1964.2964.290.060.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
LibertyBSth0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
CampbellBSth0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
DavidsonA100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.130.1324.2424.24-0.07-0.07
VCUA100.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
Saint LouisA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1157.6957.690.020.02
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01