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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:255.0
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:143
Current Record:9-23
Expected Record:9-23
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-5
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:326
Expected OOC SOS:212



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-23255.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA62-55L0%0.0
11-13Rice (167.0)CUSAH70-94L0%0.0
11-18Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA80-73L0%0.0
11-21Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH56-67L0%0.0
11-23Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH70-82L0%0.0
11-26George Mason (103.0)A10A80-77L0%0.0
11-30Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA65-56L0%0.0
12-3Longwood (343.0)BSthA59-71W100%0.0
12-10Western Michigan (173.0)MACA74-67L0%0.0
12-17Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA73-61L0%0.0
12-20Richmond (80.0)A10H55-75L0%0.0
12-23UMBC (165.0)AEH61-62L0%0.0
12-31Drexel (308.0)CAAH78-67W100%0.0
1-2Towson (88.0)CAAH64-44W100%0.0
1-5Hofstra (196.0)CAAA54-62W100%0.0
1-7Northeastern (136.0)CAAA64-54L0%0.0
1-12College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH51-53L0%0.0
1-14Elon (161.0)CAAH60-59W100%0.0
1-19William & Mary (110.0)CAAA73-72L0%0.0
1-21College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA73-60L0%0.0
1-26UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH76-87L0%0.0
1-28Delaware (235.0)CAAA66-61L0%0.0
2-2Elon (161.0)CAAA67-61L0%0.0
2-4Northeastern (136.0)CAAH73-69W100%0.0
2-9UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA88-73L0%0.0
2-11Delaware (235.0)CAAH57-58L0%0.0
2-16William & Mary (110.0)CAAH95-92W100%0.0
2-18Towson (88.0)CAAA75-65L0%0.0
2-23Drexel (308.0)CAAA64-70W100%0.0
2-25Hofstra (196.0)CAAH66-71L0%0.0
3-3Drexel (308.0)CAAN80-70W100%0.0
3-4College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA67-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA26.4626.4628.0828.08-11.60-11.60
College of CharlestonCAA5.655.6570.0070.002.262.26
DrexelCAA5.545.5428.5728.57-2.37-2.37
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.234.2383.3383.332.822.82
TowsonCAA4.234.2360.0060.000.850.85
William & MaryCAA4.154.1551.8551.850.150.15
DelawareCAA4.134.1331.0331.03-1.57-1.57
ElonCAA4.104.1053.5753.570.290.29
HofstraCAA4.084.0844.8344.83-0.42-0.42
NortheasternCAA4.084.0848.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Old DominionCUSA1.791.7960.0060.000.360.36
CharlotteCUSA1.741.7439.2939.29-0.37-0.37
RiceCUSA1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
George MasonA101.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
RichmondA101.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
UMBCAE1.641.6455.5655.560.180.18
Appalachian St.SB1.611.6122.2222.22-0.90-0.90
Montana St.BSky1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Texas SouthernSWAC1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
Western MichiganMAC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
LongwoodBSth1.591.5914.8114.81-1.12-1.12
North TexasCUSA0.230.2321.4321.43-0.13-0.13
Stony BrookAE0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
DavidsonA100.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
La SalleA100.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
VCUA100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
HartfordAE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
RadfordBSth0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
VermontAE0.160.1684.8584.850.110.11
MarshallCUSA0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
DukeACC0.130.1377.1477.140.070.07
High PointBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
BradleyMVC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Texas St.SB0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
PennIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00