live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:182.0
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:269
Current SOS:269
Current Record:20-14
Expected Record:20-14
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:295



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-14182.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UCLA (26.0)P12A100-70L0%0.0
11-19Duquesne (229.0)A10A90-88L0%0.0
11-20Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzN68-69W100%0.0
11-21North Dakota St. (72.0)SumN44-66L0%0.0
11-24Miami OH (258.0)MACA76-58L0%0.0
11-28George Washington (147.0)A10H53-54L0%0.0
12-1Winthrop (269.0)BSthH71-61W100%0.0
12-5East Tennessee St. (275.0)ASunH70-45W100%0.0
12-8Richmond (92.0)A10H82-83L0%0.0
12-16NC Greensboro (327.0)SCH85-73W100%0.0
12-22San Jose St. (261.0)WACN77-68W100%0.0
12-23San Diego (165.0)WCCN59-62W100%0.0
1-2Old Dominion (318.0)CAAA55-58W100%0.0
1-5Georgia St. (209.0)CAAA68-52L0%0.0
1-7Hampton (287.0)MEACA69-65L0%0.0
1-9NC Wilmington (301.0)CAAH78-50W100%0.0
1-12Drexel (206.0)CAAH51-43W100%0.0
1-15George Mason (162.0)CAAA68-57L0%0.0
1-19Towson (157.0)CAAA73-47L0%0.0
1-23Delaware (141.0)CAAH64-50W100%0.0
1-26Old Dominion (318.0)CAAH56-46W100%0.0
1-28NC Wilmington (301.0)CAAA56-63W100%0.0
1-31Hofstra (325.0)CAAH62-41W100%0.0
2-2George Mason (162.0)CAAH63-74L0%0.0
2-6William & Mary (271.0)CAAH81-71W100%0.0
2-10Drexel (206.0)CAAA60-48L0%0.0
2-12Towson (157.0)CAAH75-70W100%0.0
2-17Delaware (141.0)CAAA71-72W100%0.0
2-20Northeastern (159.0)CAAA66-64L0%0.0
2-23Georgia St. (209.0)CAAH62-66L0%0.0
3-2William & Mary (271.0)CAAA67-69W100%0.0
3-9William & Mary (271.0)CAAN72-67W100%0.0
3-10Delaware (141.0)CAAN57-58W100%0.0
3-11Northeastern (159.0)CAAN57-70W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA26.4426.4459.4659.465.005.00
William & MaryCAA5.225.2246.1546.15-0.40-0.40
DelawareCAA5.185.1863.3363.331.381.38
George MasonCAA3.873.8753.3353.330.260.26
NortheasternCAA3.853.8563.3363.331.031.03
NC WilmingtonCAA3.833.8333.3333.33-1.28-1.28
Old DominionCAA3.803.8017.8617.86-2.44-2.44
TowsonCAA3.783.7857.1457.140.540.54
DrexelCAA3.773.7741.3841.38-0.65-0.65
Georgia St.CAA3.743.7442.8642.86-0.53-0.53
HofstraCAA2.472.4720.0020.00-1.48-1.48
RichmondA101.771.7754.8454.840.170.17
HamptonMEAC1.651.6543.3343.33-0.22-0.22
North Dakota St.Sum1.571.5770.0070.000.630.63
DuquesneA101.571.5724.1424.14-0.81-0.81
George WashingtonA101.571.5741.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Miami OHMAC1.551.5524.1424.14-0.80-0.80
Youngstown St.Horz1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
NC GreensboroSC1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
WinthropBSth1.491.4940.7440.74-0.28-0.28
East Tennessee St.ASun1.471.4730.0030.00-0.59-0.59
San DiegoWCC1.471.4745.1645.16-0.14-0.14
San Jose St.WAC1.471.4729.6329.63-0.60-0.60
UCLAP121.471.4772.7372.730.670.67
RadfordBSth0.270.2734.4834.48-0.08-0.08
La SalleA100.210.2170.0070.000.080.08
Virginia CommonwealthA100.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
TempleA100.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
PennsylvaniaIvy0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
WoffordSC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Rhode IslandA100.170.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
VirginiaACC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
PurdueB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
CharlotteA100.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
HowardMEAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
College of CharlestonSC0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
XavierA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Boston UniversityAE0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
DukeACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
RiderMAAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Texas San AntonioWAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
PittsburghBE0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
ArizonaP120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
New Orleansind0.080.0818.1818.18-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0753.8553.850.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
MonmouthNEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
FordhamA100.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
St. LouisA100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
OregonP120.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
Washington St.P120.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.027.147.14-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00