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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:255.3
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:181
Current Record:1-7
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:177



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12108.50.02%
17-13111.20.04%
16-14144.40.14%
15-15153.10.55%
14-16172.01.77%
13-17189.44.27%
12-18208.97.75%
11-19226.512.36%
10-20243.816.29%
9-21260.818.64%
8-22276.716.07%
7-23290.611.41%
6-24302.96.60%
5-25312.32.88%
4-26320.30.93%
3-27327.40.24%
2-28330.50.02%
1-29330.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Old Dominion (95.5)CUSAA62-55L0%0.0
11-13Rice (88.9)CUSAH70-94L0%0.0
11-18Montana St. (176.6)BSkyA80-73L0%0.0
11-21Texas Southern (104.8)SWACH56-67L0%0.0
11-23Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBH70-82L0%0.0
11-26George Mason (189.3)A10A80-77L0%0.0
11-30Charlotte (177.6)CUSAA65-56L0%0.0
12-3Longwood (332.7)BSthA59-71W100%0.0
12-10Western Michigan (219.9)MACA0-033%-5.4
12-17Appalachian St. (269.1)SBA0-045%-1.6
12-20Richmond (176.7)A10H0-038%-3.6
12-23UMBC (207.9)AEH0-060%3.0
12-31Drexel (222.0)CAAH0-058%2.6
1-2Towson (157.6)CAAH0-041%-2.9
1-5Hofstra (225.8)CAAA0-039%-3.4
1-7Northeastern (182.8)CAAA0-029%-6.5
1-12College of Charleston (115.6)CAAH0-036%-4.2
1-14Elon (126.5)CAAH0-039%-3.2
1-19William & Mary (168.5)CAAA0-027%-7.5
1-21College of Charleston (115.6)CAAA0-019%-10.5
1-26UNC Wilmington (47.3)CAAH0-021%-9.8
1-28Delaware (219.8)CAAA0-035%-4.6
2-2Elon (126.5)CAAA0-021%-9.5
2-4Northeastern (182.8)CAAH0-049%-0.2
2-9UNC Wilmington (47.3)CAAA0-09%-16.0
2-11Delaware (219.8)CAAH0-056%1.7
2-16William & Mary (168.5)CAAH0-046%-1.2
2-18Towson (157.6)CAAA0-022%-9.1
2-23Drexel (222.0)CAAA0-038%-3.7
2-25Hofstra (225.8)CAAH0-059%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA28.6626.3717.5031.07-18.63-9.99
TowsonCAA0.844.3342.8652.10-0.120.18
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2783.3376.530.002.27
ElonCAA0.454.2771.4358.720.190.74
William & MaryCAA0.004.2633.3344.59-0.00-0.46
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.2466.6760.790.000.92
DrexelCAA0.004.2450.0039.790.00-0.87
HofstraCAA0.004.2462.5042.660.00-0.62
NortheasternCAA0.004.2450.0043.230.00-0.57
DelawareCAA0.004.2450.0041.060.00-0.76
Old DominionCUSA6.251.9366.6766.952.080.65
CharlotteCUSA6.251.8766.6749.662.08-0.01
RiceCUSA7.161.8471.4370.453.070.75
George MasonA106.251.8157.1445.060.89-0.18
RichmondA100.451.7850.0047.740.00-0.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB7.161.7566.6762.652.390.44
UMBCAE0.001.7580.0055.090.000.18
Appalachian St.SB0.451.7316.6728.81-0.30-0.73
Montana St.BSky7.091.7240.0061.04-1.420.38
Texas SouthernSWAC7.091.7242.8665.18-1.010.52
Western MichiganMAC0.001.7216.6734.91-0.00-0.52
LongwoodBSth6.251.6925.0022.64-3.12-0.93
Stony BrookAE0.000.2328.5738.15-0.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.2333.3330.44-0.00-0.09
Delaware St.MEAC1.750.2012.5037.99-1.31-0.05
DavidsonA100.450.2071.4363.170.190.05
La SalleA100.390.2066.6755.540.130.02
RadfordBSth0.000.1728.5734.28-0.00-0.05
High PointBSth0.000.1742.8646.48-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.1762.5071.320.000.07
St. BonaventureA100.000.1771.4370.390.000.07
DukeACC0.000.1588.8978.400.000.09
HartfordAE0.000.1522.2226.33-0.00-0.07
MaineAE0.620.1514.2924.15-0.45-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1571.4356.250.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.1550.0060.620.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.390.1562.5067.390.100.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1525.0038.83-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.1562.5069.130.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.1471.4354.860.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1437.5035.09-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.1414.2936.02-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1450.0071.020.000.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1416.6730.34-0.00-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1487.5076.230.000.07
East CarolinaAmer0.450.1477.7849.900.25-0.00
BradleyMVC0.390.1442.8627.96-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.000.1475.0073.060.000.06
LibertyBSth0.000.1233.3348.07-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1233.3327.06-0.00-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.1214.2942.67-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1275.0066.370.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1242.8643.60-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.1266.6761.330.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1250.0043.390.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1257.1467.260.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.1242.8639.20-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.450.1287.5075.590.330.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1225.0020.78-0.00-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.000.1220.0035.47-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1142.8645.56-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1157.1433.230.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.1187.5059.330.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1175.0054.490.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1157.1464.030.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.1150.0046.020.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1137.5047.91-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.390.1157.1454.360.060.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1142.8654.90-0.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1155.5641.690.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1142.8645.30-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.450.1171.4349.170.19-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0942.8647.11-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.81-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.390.0987.5062.040.290.02
DuquesneA100.000.0944.4442.03-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0925.0037.38-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0950.0030.350.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0928.5723.12-0.00-0.05
UABCUSA0.000.0950.0059.920.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0925.0029.54-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0942.8630.92-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.450.0944.4441.30-0.05-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0842.8656.04-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0885.7177.150.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0084.840.000.06
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.790.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0850.0041.310.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0871.4358.600.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0833.3356.57-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0822.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0828.5723.78-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0013.46-0.00-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0814.2931.28-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0642.8661.11-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1458.840.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.0622.2238.49-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.620.0625.0055.33-0.310.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy1.070.060.0020.55-1.07-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.390.0611.1148.19-0.30-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.740.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.160.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0612.5029.15-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.65-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.390.0642.8655.09-0.060.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.990.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0640.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.01-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.420.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.41-0.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.62-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5729.95-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0642.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.78-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0620.0046.79-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.800.000.04
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3333.36-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0671.4355.820.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.94-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0655.5658.610.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.970.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0048.810.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0685.7145.370.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0637.5033.74-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0514.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0025.23-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0540.0058.82-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.620.0333.3339.94-0.21-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.02
Oregon St.P120.450.0325.0022.93-0.22-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.39-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.390.030.0039.53-0.39-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.390.0325.0043.41-0.20-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.450.030.0017.61-0.45-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.450.0387.5068.020.330.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0342.8637.34-0.06-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0312.5023.75-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.92-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
UtahP120.520.0375.0059.790.260.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
Washington St.P120.520.0342.8628.98-0.07-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
HoustonAmer0.390.0385.7178.280.280.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.390.0342.8647.76-0.06-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.390.0333.3352.84-0.130.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.31-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.450.0337.5037.03-0.11-0.01
VMISC0.000.030.0016.78-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.390.0375.0068.370.200.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.390.0357.1449.130.06-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01