live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:250.9
Current RPI:258
Expected SOS:244
Current SOS:262
Current Record:10-15
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:3-10
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.24%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:215
Expected OOC SOS:297



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15201.20.04%
15-16216.11.44%
14-17229.610.15%
13-18243.633.51%
12-19257.142.16%
11-20269.812.14%
10-21280.20.55%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Canisius (323.0)MAACH82-73W100%0.0
11-19La Salle (68.4)A10A92-83L0%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (110.5)NECH77-82L0%0.0
11-25Rider (208.7)MAACN69-86W100%0.0
11-26Pennsylvania (114.9)IvyA58-60W100%0.0
12-3Hofstra (237.3)CAAA60-62W100%0.0
12-6Kent St. (84.6)MACH51-71L0%0.0
12-19The Citadel (332.3)SCH67-49W100%0.0
12-22George Washington (196.0)A10A57-62W100%0.0
12-29Rhode Island (249.7)A10N79-60L0%0.0
12-30Stetson (263.4)ASunN69-71W100%0.0
1-2Old Dominion (124.4)CAAH61-67L0%0.0
1-4William & Mary (303.9)CAAA68-61L0%0.0
1-7Northeastern (162.8)CAAH56-68L0%0.0
1-9Hampton (310.6)MEACH74-67W100%0.0
1-12Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)CAAA65-45L0%0.0
1-14George Mason (95.3)CAAH83-89L0%0.0
1-18NC Wilmington (206.4)CAAA61-69W100%0.0
1-21Hofstra (237.3)CAAH69-71L0%0.0
1-23Georgia St. (123.3)CAAA74-58L0%0.0
1-26William & Mary (303.9)CAAH59-47W100%0.0
1-28George Mason (95.3)CAAA89-79L0%0.0
1-30East Tennessee St. (197.9)ASunA70-56L0%0.0
2-2Old Dominion (124.4)CAAA80-71L0%0.0
2-4Delaware (181.6)CAAH80-85L0%0.0
2-8Drexel (79.6)CAAH0-022%-8.5
2-11Towson (304.6)CAAA0-079%8.9
2-14Georgia St. (123.3)CAAH0-023%-8.1
2-18Detroit (183.0)HorzA0-021%-8.8
2-22Drexel (79.6)CAAA0-08%-15.0
2-25Towson (304.6)CAAH0-092%15.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA26.3826.2040.0040.09-5.28-5.19
DrexelCAA0.623.9479.1777.560.362.17
William & MaryCAA4.503.929.0910.81-3.68-3.07
TowsonCAA0.743.924.004.64-0.68-3.55
George MasonCAA4.543.9273.9170.582.171.61
Georgia St.CAA2.543.8965.2268.360.771.43
HofstraCAA4.503.8930.4334.39-1.76-1.22
Old DominionCAA4.543.8956.5255.420.590.42
DelawareCAA2.662.4645.4548.90-0.24-0.05
Virginia CommonwealthCAA2.662.4479.1777.351.551.33
NortheasternCAA2.612.4445.4546.72-0.24-0.16
NC WilmingtonCAA2.622.3840.9137.41-0.48-0.60
La SalleA102.301.8869.5767.790.900.67
Rhode IslandA102.291.8217.3917.96-1.49-1.17
RiderMAAC2.171.8041.6741.02-0.36-0.32
George WashingtonA102.121.7436.3633.16-0.58-0.59
HamptonMEAC2.121.7236.3638.46-0.58-0.40
PennsylvaniaIvy2.171.7257.1458.700.310.30
Robert MorrisNEC2.171.7266.6769.060.720.65
East Tennessee St.ASun2.041.6747.6250.26-0.100.01
StetsonASun2.051.6731.8230.66-0.74-0.65
CanisiusMAAC2.041.6618.1820.47-1.30-0.98
DetroitHorz0.041.6447.8347.79-0.00-0.07
Kent St.MAC2.001.6170.0067.950.800.58
The CitadelSC2.001.6110.0011.91-1.60-1.23
ManhattanMAAC0.330.3268.0069.080.120.12
RichmondA100.330.2650.0048.480.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.2482.6181.410.140.15
LibertyBSth0.300.2227.2727.33-0.13-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2156.5254.880.030.02
IonaMAAC0.290.2179.1780.140.170.13
HowardMEAC0.330.2121.7425.63-0.19-0.10
MassachusettsA100.170.2173.9168.650.080.08
BelmontASun0.090.1770.8373.740.040.08
St. Peter'sMAAC0.250.1620.8323.73-0.15-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.080.1636.0040.36-0.02-0.03
Boston UniversityAE0.250.1650.0053.830.000.01
SienaMAAC0.080.1643.4845.03-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.130.1647.3752.90-0.010.01
TempleA100.170.1677.2775.070.090.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.1662.5062.420.020.04
Florida AtlanticSB0.200.1636.3639.73-0.05-0.03
VirginiaACC0.080.1681.8276.800.050.08
DuquesneA100.200.1659.0956.380.040.02
College of CharlestonSC0.130.1458.3359.920.020.03
NC GreensboroSC0.140.1434.7833.38-0.04-0.05
Virginia Military InstBSth0.130.1445.0044.18-0.01-0.02
CharlotteA100.130.1350.0049.460.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.170.1378.2674.290.100.07
MaristMAAC0.210.1334.7833.44-0.06-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.120.130.004.04-0.12-0.12
St. BonaventureA100.130.1360.0059.090.030.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.1313.0414.47-0.06-0.09
VermontAE0.120.1361.5463.840.030.04
FordhamA100.130.1340.9134.45-0.02-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.040.1321.7422.75-0.02-0.07
BrownIvy0.170.1327.2723.78-0.08-0.07
Long IslandNEC0.200.1370.8371.060.080.05
MonmouthNEC0.200.1328.0028.87-0.09-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.1247.8347.36-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1220.8323.61-0.08-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.128.3310.90-0.15-0.09
LipscombASun0.090.1243.4843.89-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.180.1272.0072.220.080.05
North FloridaASun0.130.1248.0048.07-0.01-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.130.1256.5256.800.020.02
DavidsonSC0.140.1177.2777.370.070.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.1142.8643.11-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.1147.6248.81-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.090.1168.1867.980.030.04
St. John'sBE0.130.1143.4840.24-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1130.0034.18-0.05-0.03
BradleyMVC0.090.1124.0024.86-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1138.8941.49-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.1169.5770.420.020.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.170.1171.4366.550.070.04
DaytonA100.130.1160.8760.960.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1142.1149.86-0.01-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.120.1133.3337.11-0.04-0.03
MissouriB120.160.1191.6787.920.140.08
Oregon St.P120.080.1063.6463.170.020.03
PittsburghBE0.170.1062.5059.520.040.02
WagnerNEC0.170.1082.6184.580.110.07
FurmanSC0.140.0945.4547.20-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0933.3337.16-0.03-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0955.0060.350.010.02
SamfordSC0.090.0833.3335.20-0.03-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0868.4266.510.030.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.040.0818.1819.91-0.03-0.05
OhioMAC0.090.0881.8277.180.060.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0852.3853.290.000.01
UABCUSA0.130.0840.9139.81-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0814.2916.80-0.06-0.05
Utah ValleyGWC0.090.0854.5557.710.010.01
CornellIvy0.090.0836.8441.47-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.130.0843.4842.98-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.120.088.7013.12-0.10-0.06
VillanovaBE0.130.0845.8345.52-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0890.4887.910.040.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0844.0045.88-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.040.0877.2777.700.020.04
XavierA100.090.0865.2263.690.030.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0857.6958.540.010.01
BucknellPat0.120.0873.9175.030.060.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0845.4545.69-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0862.5061.430.020.02
South FloridaBE0.120.0854.5548.540.01-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.0856.5255.970.020.01
YaleIvy0.090.0872.2263.230.040.02
ElonSC0.100.0652.3849.770.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.100.0656.5257.200.010.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0647.8345.51-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0645.4544.56-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0634.7837.27-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.090.0628.5730.17-0.04-0.02
High PointBSth0.090.0631.8232.81-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.090.0640.9141.68-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0636.3640.96-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0622.7324.64-0.02-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0654.5558.390.010.01
ButlerHorz0.000.0650.0050.810.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0628.5729.05-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.090.0626.3228.82-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0638.1040.84-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0665.2263.550.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0640.9142.97-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.000.0635.0039.40-0.00-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0656.5257.810.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0641.6740.47-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0579.1776.620.050.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0556.5255.220.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0532.0035.39-0.02-0.02
Longwoodind0.090.0528.5725.79-0.04-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.040.0569.5770.160.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0554.1754.760.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.040.0568.1868.980.010.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0550.0051.750.000.00
LehighPat0.080.0573.9174.940.040.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0519.0519.39-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0544.4445.20-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0523.8133.67-0.05-0.02
PortlandWCC0.040.0521.7421.75-0.02-0.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.000.0557.1460.720.000.01
WashingtonP120.040.0569.5766.590.020.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0534.7834.75-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.040.058.3310.84-0.03-0.04
ColgatePat0.080.0530.4329.49-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0555.0054.810.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0514.2917.12-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0544.4441.65-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.058.7012.14-0.07-0.04
KansasB120.000.0578.2678.420.000.03
KentuckySEC0.080.0596.0093.530.070.05
LamarSlnd0.000.0561.9067.290.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0569.5766.330.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0554.1757.110.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0533.3337.75-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.040.0556.5257.140.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.080.0534.7834.46-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0327.2735.05-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0368.4268.620.020.01
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.240.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.040.0372.7371.570.020.01
IndianaB100.040.0375.0075.730.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.850.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0328.5735.72-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0321.0524.33-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.36-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0355.0057.420.000.00
CampbellBSth0.040.0357.6958.270.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9138.38-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0362.5062.070.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.040.0342.8643.52-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.040.0359.0959.780.010.01
MarylandACC0.040.0360.8753.440.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0378.2672.280.000.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.040.0334.7835.19-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4547.09-0.00-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.040.0382.6181.430.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0370.8364.530.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.29-0.04-0.02
Notre DameBE0.000.0365.2262.670.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0334.7832.10-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0376.1975.980.020.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.950.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.040.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.050.0366.6765.980.020.01
AmericanPat0.040.0365.2263.790.010.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0375.0074.620.020.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0373.9168.410.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0342.1145.89-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.040.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0326.3229.64-0.02-0.01
SyracuseBE0.040.0395.8392.000.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0330.4326.42-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0382.6179.930.030.02
Georgia TechACC0.040.0339.1342.16-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.040.0320.8322.81-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.040.0347.6248.01-0.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.040.0369.5771.580.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0326.0928.61-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0350.0044.980.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.040.0352.0048.780.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.040.0365.2263.650.010.01
TexasB120.040.0362.5062.200.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.780.000.00