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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:264.5
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:180
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:271



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-792.00.01%
23-890.00.01%
22-9114.30.06%
21-10134.00.13%
20-11146.30.49%
19-12167.81.04%
18-13184.52.69%
17-14204.25.29%
16-15223.29.38%
15-16241.913.26%
14-17258.015.97%
13-18275.116.57%
12-19289.213.93%
11-20302.610.28%
10-21313.46.04%
9-22323.12.94%
8-23331.41.35%
7-24337.10.41%
6-25343.20.10%
5-26342.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Virginia (28.8)ACCH51-79L0%0.0
11-17Radford (239.6)BSthH74-71W100%0.0
11-19Longwood (336.4)BSthH82-60W100%0.0
11-24Colgate (224.8)PatH0-058%2.3
11-26Sacred Heart (303.2)NECH0-072%7.0
11-28Ohio St. (28.3)B10A0-02%-23.7
12-2Campbell (290.9)BSthH0-075%8.1
12-7Richmond (83.0)A10H0-025%-8.3
12-13East Carolina (219.8)AmerA0-030%-6.4
12-17Ball St. (248.8)MACA0-040%-3.1
12-20High Point (142.1)BSthH0-049%-0.2
12-22Norfolk St. (253.9)MEACH0-062%3.7
12-29Valparaiso (178.6)HorzH0-042%-2.4
1-3Towson (218.4)CAAH0-057%2.0
1-5College of Charleston (145.1)CAAA0-018%-11.1
1-8Northeastern (70.6)CAAH0-028%-6.9
1-10William & Mary (181.9)CAAA0-028%-7.0
1-14Drexel (233.9)CAAA0-032%-5.7
1-17Elon (248.0)CAAH0-062%3.5
1-22Northeastern (70.6)CAAA0-012%-14.1
1-24Hofstra (152.6)CAAA0-020%-10.1
1-28Delaware (226.6)CAAH0-055%1.6
1-31William & Mary (181.9)CAAH0-051%0.2
2-4UNC Wilmington (216.3)CAAH0-059%2.7
2-7Towson (218.4)CAAA0-033%-5.2
2-11Delaware (226.6)CAAA0-032%-5.6
2-14Elon (248.0)CAAA0-038%-3.7
2-18Drexel (233.9)CAAH0-055%1.5
2-21College of Charleston (145.1)CAAH0-037%-3.9
2-25UNC Wilmington (216.3)CAAA0-036%-4.5
2-28Hofstra (152.6)CAAH0-041%-2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA38.8926.3846.1537.83-2.99-6.42
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.1850.0038.840.00-0.93
William & MaryCAA0.004.1850.0045.220.00-0.40
HofstraCAA0.004.1750.0060.710.000.89
NortheasternCAA0.004.16100.0068.220.001.52
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.1633.3356.03-0.000.50
TowsonCAA0.004.1350.0044.560.00-0.45
DelawareCAA0.004.130.0041.75-0.00-0.68
ElonCAA0.004.1350.0037.460.00-1.03
DrexelCAA0.004.120.0036.52-0.00-1.11
CampbellBSth0.001.920.0030.85-0.00-0.74
High PointBSth0.001.87100.0058.230.000.31
RichmondA102.781.7950.0060.740.000.38
RadfordBSth16.671.7850.0045.280.00-0.17
LongwoodBSth16.671.760.0018.27-16.67-1.12
Ohio St.B100.001.73100.0073.100.000.80
ColgatePat0.001.690.0036.62-0.00-0.45
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.6950.0037.320.00-0.43
Norfolk St.MEAC2.781.690.0044.74-2.78-0.18
Ball St.MAC0.001.670.0035.34-0.00-0.49
East CarolinaAmer0.001.670.0033.49-0.00-0.55
ValparaisoHorz0.001.6450.0051.840.000.06
VirginiaACC16.671.64100.0065.6916.670.52
LibertyBSth0.000.3250.0043.990.00-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2950.0061.050.000.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2650.0052.100.000.01
La SalleA100.000.25100.0056.340.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.23100.0059.250.000.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.230.0032.76-0.00-0.08
WinthropBSth0.000.2350.0056.020.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.22100.0049.500.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.200.0063.86-0.000.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.200.0036.86-0.00-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.190.0046.79-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC2.780.170.0032.81-2.78-0.06
TempleAmer0.000.17100.0057.150.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.170.0038.34-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0029.01-0.00-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1650.0035.120.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.160.0030.65-0.00-0.06
Miami FLACC0.000.15100.0068.310.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.14100.0067.660.000.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.14100.0070.930.000.06
Miami OHMAC0.000.1450.0034.320.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0077.610.000.08
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1450.0055.200.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.13100.0061.120.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.120.0053.31-0.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.12100.0070.520.000.05
Penn St.B100.000.1166.6746.550.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.11100.0066.730.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1150.0043.510.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC2.780.110.0028.74-2.78-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.11100.0044.020.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.110.0047.13-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0056.380.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.11100.0058.890.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.110.0034.75-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1133.3337.88-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.11100.0071.490.000.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.1150.0050.330.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.110.0043.54-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.110.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0066.43-0.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0966.6762.170.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0950.0051.650.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.090.0036.60-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6753.710.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0933.3333.86-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0950.0053.110.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0035.31-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0055.290.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.090.0030.93-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.09100.0043.270.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.09100.0085.060.000.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0050.480.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0024.25-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.08100.0065.390.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0850.0062.330.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.08100.0044.320.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.080.0032.90-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.080.0055.09-0.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0866.6747.950.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0056.950.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0850.0067.810.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.080.0035.57-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.08100.0061.790.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0866.6764.300.000.02
IowaB100.000.0866.6773.790.000.04
VCUA100.000.08100.0076.230.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.08100.0063.480.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0850.0061.730.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0040.830.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0650.0058.740.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0031.43-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0034.44-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.410.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0065.830.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0650.0068.630.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.680.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.41-0.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0029.910.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6757.250.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.740.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0033.91-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0650.0065.490.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.35-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0046.570.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.880.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0040.980.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0063.68-0.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.29-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0058.910.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.95-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0046.120.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0650.0063.260.000.02
VMISC0.000.0650.0044.060.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0650.0040.820.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0024.870.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0063.440.000.01
StanfordP120.000.06100.0059.450.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.81-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0068.630.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.060.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0533.3328.81-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6770.630.000.02
MarylandB100.000.05100.0067.780.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.05100.0056.850.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0550.0054.500.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0550.0051.350.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0533.3347.64-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0550.0043.770.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.050.0039.97-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0566.6739.300.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.050.0051.39-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.050.0039.66-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.05100.0071.430.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0550.0047.360.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.050.0048.12-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0550.0034.150.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0533.3331.05-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.050.0015.48-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0533.3324.67-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.05100.0064.540.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0533.3335.35-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.050.0023.67-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.05100.0067.240.000.02
PurdueB100.000.05100.0061.020.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0550.0063.340.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.030.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0062.600.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.03100.0063.800.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.690.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6761.240.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0049.930.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0333.3334.62-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6748.810.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.54-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3369.45-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.380.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.370.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.330.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.11-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0350.0054.530.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0021.31-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.180.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0325.0030.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.58-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3351.93-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3350.49-0.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3333.83-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.040.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3334.10-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.78-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.86-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0350.0063.450.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.650.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.230.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.87-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0050.010.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0070.180.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.03100.0057.350.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.660.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0064.020.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0061.570.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0038.23-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0333.3338.98-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.100.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.030.0054.91-0.000.00
DaytonA100.000.03100.0072.390.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.69-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0036.83-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0060.930.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.560.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0066.390.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0058.61-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.780.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0067.300.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.890.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.320.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.930.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.830.000.02