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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


James Madison

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:233.0
Current RPI:233
Expected SOS:166
Current SOS:166
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20233.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Virginia (8.0)ACCA61-41L0%0.0
11-15Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA55-60W100%0.0
11-16Milwaukee (131.0)HorzN66-77L0%0.0
11-17San Jose St. (278.0)MWCN66-79W100%0.0
11-19Detroit (230.0)HorzH67-71L0%0.0
11-23Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA81-49L0%0.0
11-27Winthrop (168.0)BSthA69-57L0%0.0
11-30Richmond (75.0)A10A68-53L0%0.0
12-6Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndN77-76L0%0.0
12-7Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA70-57L0%0.0
12-14High Point (172.0)BSthA69-84W100%0.0
12-18UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA78-65L0%0.0
12-21Hampton (204.0)MEACN55-49W100%0.0
12-30Ball St. (309.0)MACH73-68W100%0.0
1-4UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA55-60W100%0.0
1-7College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA75-61L0%0.0
1-11Delaware (65.0)CAAH74-78L0%0.0
1-15Northeastern (222.0)CAAH52-56L0%0.0
1-18William & Mary (119.0)CAAA78-56L0%0.0
1-25College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH58-56W100%0.0
1-29Northeastern (222.0)CAAA46-49W100%0.0
2-2William & Mary (119.0)CAAH79-81L0%0.0
2-4Towson (95.0)CAAA80-71L0%0.0
2-8Drexel (132.0)CAAA78-60L0%0.0
2-10Hofstra (277.0)CAAH59-53W100%0.0
2-12Delaware (65.0)CAAA81-65L0%0.0
2-15UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH64-62W100%0.0
2-19Drexel (132.0)CAAH63-61W100%0.0
2-26Towson (95.0)CAAH66-69L0%0.0
3-1Hofstra (277.0)CAAA82-71L0%0.0
3-8Towson (95.0)CAAN80-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
James MadisonCAA26.3326.3338.1338.13-6.25-6.25
TowsonCAA5.665.6664.2964.291.621.62
William & MaryCAA4.254.2558.6258.620.730.73
DelawareCAA4.214.2171.8871.881.841.84
NortheasternCAA4.154.1533.3333.33-1.38-1.38
HofstraCAA4.134.1329.0329.03-1.73-1.73
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.074.0725.0025.00-2.03-2.03
College of CharlestonCAA4.054.0541.3841.38-0.70-0.70
DrexelCAA4.044.0453.5753.570.290.29
MilwaukeeHorz1.881.8859.3859.380.350.35
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.861.8692.8692.861.591.59
RichmondA101.811.8156.2556.250.230.23
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.771.7767.8667.860.630.63
High PointBSth1.771.7751.8551.850.070.07
ValparaisoHorz1.771.7748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC1.761.7662.0762.070.430.43
DetroitHorz1.741.7434.4834.48-0.54-0.54
Northern IllinoisMAC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
WinthropBSth1.701.7055.1755.170.180.18
Ball St.MAC1.691.6911.1111.11-1.32-1.32
San Jose St.MWC1.661.6617.8617.86-1.07-1.07
UNC GreensboroSC1.641.6435.7135.71-0.47-0.47
VirginiaACC1.641.6481.8281.821.041.04
LibertyBSth0.340.3427.5927.59-0.15-0.15
Cleveland St.Horz0.240.2463.3363.330.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Green BayHorz0.200.2077.7877.780.110.11
ToledoMAC0.190.1981.2581.250.120.12
The CitadelSC0.190.1913.7913.79-0.13-0.13
UICHorz0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
VCUA100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
WoffordSC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.160.1664.2964.290.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
OaklandHorz0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
VMIBSth0.140.1455.5655.560.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
OhioMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
RutgersAmer0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
VillanovaBE0.130.1387.5087.500.090.09
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
RadfordBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
LamarSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0824.0024.00-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01