IUPU Fort Wayne

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	255.0
Current RPI:	259
Expected SOS:	212
Current SOS:	188
Current Record:	7-13
Expected Record:	9-17
Current Conf Record:	4-10
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	3-3
Expected OOC Record:	4-4
Expected OOC RPI:	185
Expected OOC SOS:	312

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-13	177.2	0.12%
12-14	199.6	1.49%
11-15	218.2	9.63%
10-16	238.5	26.70%
9-17	260.2	35.65%
8-18	279.0	22.18%
7-19	294.7	4.22%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPU Fort Wayne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Xavier (55.8)	A10	A	86-63	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Iowa (139.5)	B10	A	82-72	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Missouri Kansas City (240.4)	Sum	H	66-81	L	0%	0.0
12-3	South Dakota (280.2)	Sum	H	92-87	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	H	85-76	W	100%	0.0
12-13	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	56-51	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	A	76-82	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Purdue (65.0)	B10	A	81-56	L	0%	0.0
12-28	South Dakota St. (55.2)	Sum	A	94-58	L	0%	0.0
12-30	North Dakota St. (125.0)	Sum	A	84-68	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	H	79-58	W	100%	0.0
1-5	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	H	72-67	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Western Illinois (177.9)	Sum	H	65-75	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Oakland (135.3)	Sum	H	86-96	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	A	65-54	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	A	58-56	L	0%	0.0
1-26	North Dakota St. (125.0)	Sum	H	75-66	W	100%	0.0
1-28	South Dakota St. (55.2)	Sum	H	43-74	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Western Illinois (177.9)	Sum	A	62-52	L	0%	0.0
2-4	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	A	66-63	L	0%	0.0
2-7	Chicago St. (335.8)	GWC	A	0-0		75%	7.2
2-11	Oakland (135.3)	Sum	A	0-0		17%	-10.4
2-15	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	H	0-0		15%	-11.2
2-18	Eastern Kentucky (207.4)	OVC	A	0-0		34%	-4.4
2-23	South Dakota (280.2)	Sum	A	0-0		41%	-2.5
2-25	Missouri Kansas City (240.4)	Sum	A	0-0		36%	-4.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPU Fort Wayne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

IUPU Fort Wayne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against IUPU Fort Wayne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	26.71	26.50	31.25	36.21	-10.02	-7.31
Oral Roberts	Sum	3.70	5.00	80.00	79.95	2.22	2.99
Oakland	Sum	3.82	4.99	45.83	47.26	-0.32	-0.27
IUPUI	Sum	5.98	4.99	33.33	34.42	-1.99	-1.55
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	3.58	4.96	31.82	31.72	-1.30	-1.81
South Dakota St.	Sum	5.90	4.96	71.43	73.67	2.53	2.35
North Dakota St.	Sum	5.89	4.95	63.16	64.60	1.55	1.44
Southern Utah	Sum	6.03	4.95	45.00	43.85	-0.60	-0.61
South Dakota	Sum	3.58	4.94	27.78	28.78	-1.59	-2.09
Western Illinois	Sum	5.89	4.94	47.06	43.92	-0.35	-0.60
Valparaiso	Horz	2.66	2.05	68.18	65.88	0.97	0.65
Iowa	B10	2.61	2.02	52.17	47.76	0.11	-0.09
Purdue	B10	2.66	2.02	63.64	59.27	0.73	0.37
Xavier	A10	2.60	2.02	63.64	62.49	0.71	0.50
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	1.96	50.00	51.23	0.00	0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.50	1.96	4.55	10.00	-2.27	-1.56
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	1.95	4.76	9.37	-0.05	-1.59
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.50	1.92	15.00	17.79	-1.75	-1.24
North Dakota	GWC	0.65	0.49	33.33	41.31	-0.22	-0.09
Nebraska	B10	0.23	0.24	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.29	0.23	72.73	66.81	0.13	0.08
Western Michigan	MAC	0.21	0.23	40.91	42.96	-0.04	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.39	0.23	69.57	61.31	0.15	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.19	0.22	17.39	19.81	-0.12	-0.13
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.19	0.21	33.33	34.47	-0.06	-0.07
Ball St.	MAC	0.27	0.20	55.00	57.41	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.20	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.19	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.18	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.17	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.16	0.16	76.19	72.91	0.08	0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.16	75.00	73.97	0.08	0.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.19	0.14	30.00	30.06	-0.07	-0.06
Troy	SB	0.23	0.14	28.57	30.17	-0.10	-0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.23	0.14	0.00	5.37	-0.23	-0.13
Dayton	A10	0.19	0.14	60.87	60.96	0.04	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.23	0.14	35.00	39.38	-0.07	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.13	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.13	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.13	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.22	0.13	56.52	57.72	0.03	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.13	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.16	0.13	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.13	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.13	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.12	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.12	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	85.71	78.05	0.08	0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.17	0.10	8.33	10.86	-0.14	-0.08
San Francisco	WCC	0.18	0.10	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.10	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.10	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.16	0.10	78.26	72.66	0.09	0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.10	100.00	94.55	0.11	0.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.10	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.00	0.10	62.50	62.06	0.00	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.16	0.10	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.10	27.27	23.80	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.10	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.10	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	81.82	77.20	0.07	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.10	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.16	0.10	5.26	7.30	-0.14	-0.08
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.10	86.96	85.46	0.08	0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.09	81.82	81.49	0.07	0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.08	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.08	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.08	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.08	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.07	30.43	31.43	-0.05	-0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.12	0.07	39.13	44.52	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.12	0.07	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.12	0.07	13.64	16.14	-0.09	-0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.07	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.07	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.07	80.00	76.84	0.07	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.00	0.07	25.00	28.52	-0.00	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.00	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.00	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.00	0.07	19.05	24.61	-0.00	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.07	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.07	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.07	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.07	68.42	66.45	0.00	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.07	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.07	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.07	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.07	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.07	80.95	77.38	0.07	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.07	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.07	90.48	87.91	0.10	0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.07	70.83	71.64	0.05	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.07	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.07	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.07	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.07	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.00	0.07	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.00	0.07	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.07	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.11	0.07	69.57	66.54	0.04	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.07	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.07	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.07	72.22	63.19	0.03	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.07	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.07	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.07	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.07	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.07	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.03	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.06	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.00	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.00	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.00	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.00	0.02
Albany	AE	0.06	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.03	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.00	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.00	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.00	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.00	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.00	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.00	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.00	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.02	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.00	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.00	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.00	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.00	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.00	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.00	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.00	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01