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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Chicago St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:318.0
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:148
Current Record:3-26
Expected Record:3-26
Current Conf Record:1-14
Expected Conf Record:1-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-11
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:154



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-26318.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wisconsin (35.0)B10A69-51L0%0.0
11-19Oakland (109.0)HorzA107-79L0%0.0
11-26Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA91-60L0%0.0
11-30Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA74-58L0%0.0
12-3Western Illinois (325.0)SumA76-83W100%0.0
12-10Bradley (220.0)MVCA83-48L0%0.0
12-11Saint Louis (238.0)A10A45-43L0%0.0
12-14Northwestern (50.0)B10A68-64L0%0.0
12-17DePaul (239.0)BEA109-61L0%0.0
12-19Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA66-46L0%0.0
12-22Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCN65-74W100%0.0
12-23Troy (147.0)SBN83-65L0%0.0
12-28Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA80-61L0%0.0
12-30Central Michigan (216.0)MACA90-82L0%0.0
1-5UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH64-83L0%0.0
1-7New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH62-78L0%0.0
1-12Utah Valley (206.0)WACA61-70W100%0.0
1-14Seattle (287.0)WACA65-50L0%0.0
1-21UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA85-77L0%0.0
1-26Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH59-75L0%0.0
1-28Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH77-85L0%0.0
2-4New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA86-51L0%0.0
2-9Seattle (287.0)WACN65-90L0%0.0
2-11Utah Valley (206.0)WACH54-87L0%0.0
2-18UMKC (184.0)WACA84-65L0%0.0
2-23Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA82-59L0%0.0
2-25Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA69-49L0%0.0
3-4UMKC (184.0)WACH82-87L0%0.0
3-9New Mexico St. (59.0)WACN67-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.WAC26.3726.3714.9614.96-18.48-18.48
New Mexico St.WAC6.026.0281.4881.483.793.79
UMKCWAC4.414.4142.8642.86-0.63-0.63
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.374.3765.3865.381.351.35
Utah ValleyWAC4.354.3542.3142.31-0.67-0.67
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.314.3118.5218.52-2.72-2.72
SeattleWAC4.314.3132.0032.00-1.55-1.55
Grand CanyonWAC4.264.2666.6766.671.421.42
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.981.9843.3343.33-0.26-0.26
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.921.9240.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Missouri St.MVC1.921.9248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz1.861.8673.3373.330.870.87
DePaulBE1.861.8625.8125.81-0.90-0.90
OaklandHorz1.841.8472.4172.410.820.82
NorthwesternB101.831.8366.6766.670.610.61
Notre DameACC1.811.8172.7372.730.820.82
BradleyMVC1.811.8135.4835.48-0.52-0.52
WisconsinB101.771.7772.7372.730.810.81
Western IllinoisSum1.751.7524.0024.00-0.91-0.91
Central MichiganMAC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Saint LouisA101.721.7234.3834.38-0.54-0.54
TroySB1.721.7257.5857.580.260.26
Green BayHorz0.340.3455.1755.170.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.2829.4129.41-0.12-0.12
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.2544.4444.44-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
DrakeMVC0.220.2220.6920.69-0.13-0.13
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.2034.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
Wichita St.MVC0.190.1987.8887.880.140.14
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1918.5218.52-0.12-0.12
BYUWCC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
DetroitHorz0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
South DakotaSum0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
IndianaB100.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
UC DavisBW0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
RutgersB100.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
UTSACUSA0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.08-0.08
Southern UtahBSky0.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
CreightonBE0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
IowaB100.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Texas St.SB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.130.1378.1278.120.080.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
DenverSum0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DukeACC0.110.1177.1477.140.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Penn St.B100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Arizona St.P120.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
George MasonA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
DuquesneA100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
DaytonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.060.06
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01