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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Chicago St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:292.4
Current RPI:199
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:15
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:5-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-7
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:292
Expected OOC SOS:135



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-15149.00.01%
11-16159.10.12%
10-17185.60.53%
9-18207.51.58%
8-19230.04.46%
7-20251.29.50%
6-21272.815.51%
5-22290.920.10%
4-23307.621.20%
3-24320.416.07%
2-25330.48.22%
1-26337.92.42%
0-27343.70.27%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wisconsin (29.2)B10A69-51L0%0.0
11-19Oakland (89.5)HorzA107-79L0%0.0
11-26Notre Dame (26.0)ACCA91-60L0%0.0
11-30Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzA74-58L0%0.0
12-3Western Illinois (333.0)SumA0-033%-5.2
12-10Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-022%-9.4
12-11Saint Louis (278.6)A10A0-025%-8.1
12-14Northwestern (60.3)B10A0-01%-28.0
12-17DePaul (206.1)BEA0-011%-14.8
12-19Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-03%-21.8
12-22Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCN0-033%-5.4
12-28Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA0-04%-21.0
12-30Central Michigan (157.8)MACA0-010%-15.3
1-5UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACH0-060%3.0
1-7New Mexico St. (126.1)WACH0-017%-11.2
1-12Utah Valley (129.4)WACA0-010%-15.1
1-14Seattle (250.2)WACA0-022%-9.2
1-21UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACA0-039%-3.2
1-26Cal St. Bakersfield (140.8)WACH0-020%-10.2
1-28Grand Canyon (187.1)WACH0-025%-7.9
2-4New Mexico St. (126.1)WACA0-07%-17.4
2-9Seattle (250.2)WACH0-040%-3.0
2-11Utah Valley (129.4)WACH0-023%-8.9
2-18UMKC (146.9)WACA0-013%-13.5
2-23Grand Canyon (187.1)WACA0-012%-14.1
2-25Cal St. Bakersfield (140.8)WACA0-09%-16.4
3-4UMKC (146.9)WACH0-027%-7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.WAC28.7626.370.0021.14-28.76-15.22
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.5650.0054.400.000.40
UMKCWAC0.004.5671.4354.220.000.38
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.004.5625.0022.27-0.00-2.53
SeattleWAC0.894.5520.0040.44-0.54-0.87
New Mexico St.WAC0.004.5271.4366.540.001.50
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.5250.0057.490.000.68
Utah ValleyWAC0.004.5260.0056.920.000.63
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.1550.0037.350.00-0.54
Illinois ChicagoHorz12.502.0740.0048.51-2.50-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.002.0475.0063.830.000.56
ValparaisoHorz0.002.0185.7173.680.000.95
DePaulBE0.001.9880.0034.130.00-0.63
OaklandHorz12.501.9880.0077.667.501.09
Notre DameACC12.501.95100.0074.1812.500.94
BradleyMVC0.001.9550.0027.580.00-0.87
NorthwesternB100.891.9471.4365.120.380.59
Western IllinoisSum0.001.880.0020.85-0.00-1.10
WisconsinB1012.501.8871.4372.975.360.86
Central MichiganMAC0.001.8566.6755.160.000.19
Saint LouisA100.001.8533.3325.14-0.00-0.92
Green BayHorz0.000.3533.3348.71-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.2671.4355.750.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.2633.3333.15-0.00-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2350.0043.490.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.220.0021.30-0.00-0.13
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.2250.0052.140.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.210.0033.44-0.00-0.07
BYUWCC0.000.2071.4368.660.000.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2075.0054.320.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1916.6730.27-0.00-0.07
DetroitHorz0.000.190.0019.51-0.00-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1942.8637.60-0.00-0.05
UC DavisBW1.040.1757.1448.410.15-0.01
UTSACUSA1.040.1728.5728.46-0.45-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1766.6751.460.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.170.0024.25-0.00-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0024.77-0.00-0.08
Southern UtahBSky0.000.160.0023.26-0.00-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1657.1440.590.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.780.16100.0076.650.780.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1666.6754.420.000.01
PurdueB100.000.1671.4374.450.000.08
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1633.3346.81-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.890.1642.8644.33-0.13-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1650.0052.330.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1650.0046.670.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1671.4386.030.000.11
IllinoisB100.000.1557.1442.660.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1583.3375.060.000.08
RutgersB100.000.1583.3344.770.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.1533.3341.11-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1433.3348.73-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.1457.1447.220.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1414.2937.52-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum1.040.140.0019.30-1.04-0.08
North FloridaASun0.000.1414.2931.71-0.00-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.1425.0040.37-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.1471.4358.670.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.1425.0043.26-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.1485.7170.990.000.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.140.0033.43-0.00-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.000.1342.8661.90-0.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.13100.0069.770.000.05
Bowling GreenMAC1.040.1333.3343.64-0.35-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1333.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0066.170.000.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1340.0057.49-0.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.1285.7175.950.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.1262.5043.960.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1150.0061.810.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.1066.6770.930.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1028.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1014.2928.15-0.00-0.05
ColoradoP120.890.1071.4359.850.380.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1014.2929.81-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.1050.0033.010.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1050.0042.710.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1057.1455.810.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.1060.0043.970.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW1.040.1033.3335.92-0.35-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC1.040.1042.8645.30-0.15-0.01
Western MichiganMAC1.040.1016.6736.45-0.69-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.22-0.00-0.06
DukeACC0.000.0987.5078.680.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6770.740.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0075.690.000.05
GeorgetownBE0.780.0950.0047.560.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0971.4363.090.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0083.120.000.06
George MasonA100.000.0957.1442.940.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0966.6772.440.000.04
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0985.7165.670.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0023.47-0.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0760.0039.610.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0091.060.000.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0720.0032.60-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0733.3353.29-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0757.1469.300.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.0783.3374.620.000.04
UtahP120.000.0775.0061.040.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0750.0053.560.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0757.1452.630.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0750.0036.820.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0720.0054.94-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0757.1436.050.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0716.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0783.3361.490.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0742.8637.25-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0728.5727.50-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0054.690.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0785.7155.890.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0740.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0728.5734.18-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0783.3376.370.000.03
KansasB120.000.0785.7176.170.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0785.7159.740.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0771.4343.020.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0760.0057.170.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0716.6729.36-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0733.3338.20-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0783.3380.550.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0614.2928.66-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.780.0614.2929.15-0.56-0.03
NevadaMWC1.040.0675.0070.470.520.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.890.0628.5750.20-0.380.00
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.780.0685.7180.010.560.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.780.0666.6770.140.260.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0416.6735.65-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA1.040.0383.3358.030.690.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC1.040.0383.3350.740.690.00
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.890.0333.3340.49-0.30-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.780.0316.6732.62-0.52-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.780.0325.0034.47-0.39-0.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01