live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Chicago St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:348.0
Current RPI:348
Expected SOS:213
Current SOS:213
Current Record:1-28
Expected Record:1-28
Current Conf Record:0-15
Expected Conf Record:0-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-11
Current OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
1-28348.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Iowa St. (23.0)B12A106-64L0%0.0
11-23Illinois (149.0)B10A82-79L0%0.0
11-27Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCN68-65L0%0.0
11-28Alabama St. (265.0)SWACN64-66L0%0.0
12-2Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA80-58L0%0.0
12-5DePaul (198.0)BEA96-72L0%0.0
12-11Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH53-71L0%0.0
12-13Northwestern (115.0)B10A77-35L0%0.0
12-16Minnesota (257.0)B10A70-52L0%0.0
12-19Western Illinois (262.0)SumH77-70W100%0.0
12-21Marquette (110.0)BEA91-74L0%0.0
12-28Oakland (116.0)HorzA101-93L0%0.0
12-31Ball St. (179.0)MACA73-48L0%0.0
1-9Seattle (287.0)WACH50-66L0%0.0
1-11Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH56-67L0%0.0
1-14UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACA82-72L0%0.0
1-16New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA80-62L0%0.0
1-19Green Bay (112.0)HorzH66-99L0%0.0
1-21Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH65-90L0%0.0
1-23Utah Valley (272.0)WACH76-82L0%0.0
1-30UMKC (286.0)WACA78-64L0%0.0
2-4Seattle (287.0)WACA59-56L0%0.0
2-6Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA71-48L0%0.0
2-13New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH55-69L0%0.0
2-18Utah Valley (272.0)WACA74-72L0%0.0
2-20Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA67-52L0%0.0
2-28UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH79-89L0%0.0
3-5UMKC (286.0)WACH53-82L0%0.0
3-10Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACN79-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.WAC26.4026.402.332.33-25.17-25.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC6.026.0269.2369.232.322.32
New Mexico St.WAC4.404.4065.5265.521.361.36
SeattleWAC4.394.3938.4638.46-1.01-1.01
UMKCWAC4.384.3826.9226.92-2.02-2.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.294.2912.0012.00-3.26-3.26
Utah ValleyWAC4.294.2928.0028.00-1.89-1.89
Grand CanyonWAC4.244.2477.7877.782.362.36
MinnesotaB101.921.9223.3323.33-1.02-1.02
ValparaisoHorz1.881.8879.3179.311.101.10
Green BayHorz1.861.8662.5062.500.470.47
IllinoisB101.861.8642.4242.42-0.28-0.28
OaklandHorz1.831.8364.5264.520.530.53
NorthwesternB101.831.8361.2961.290.410.41
Ball St.MAC1.811.8156.6756.670.240.24
DePaulBE1.801.8026.6726.67-0.84-0.84
MarquetteBE1.781.7859.3859.380.330.33
Northern IllinoisMAC1.781.7857.1457.140.250.25
Alabama St.SWAC1.751.7539.2939.29-0.38-0.38
Jacksonville St.OVC1.751.7517.8617.86-1.13-1.13
Iowa St.B121.751.7564.5264.520.510.51
Western IllinoisSum1.721.7230.4330.43-0.67-0.67
South DakotaSum0.310.3140.0040.00-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.2810.7110.71-0.22-0.22
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.260.2622.8622.86-0.14-0.14
IowaB100.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.210.2137.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.210.2183.8783.870.140.14
IdahoBSky0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
UTEPCUSA0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
DetroitHorz0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1630.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B100.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1524.2424.24-0.08-0.08
UABCUSA0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
WyomingMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
St. John'sBE0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
XavierBE0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
IndianaB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
RutgersB100.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.130.1332.1432.14-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
HoustonAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1260.7160.710.020.02
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
BaylorB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
ButlerBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Seton HallBE0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
VillanovaBE0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
NebraskaB100.110.1147.0647.06-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
IPFWSum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0911.1111.11-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01