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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Chicago St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:333.0
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:266
Current SOS:266
Current Record:5-24
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:4-11
Expected Conf Record:4-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-12
Current OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC RPI:314
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-24333.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arizona St. (102.0)P12A86-50L0%0.0
11-16Creighton (151.0)BEA84-66L0%0.0
11-24Georgia St. (53.0)SBN46-69L0%0.0
11-25Oakland (155.0)HorzA70-57L0%0.0
11-26Western Carolina (220.0)SCN66-61L0%0.0
11-29Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA90-42L0%0.0
12-4DePaul (197.0)BEH60-84L0%0.0
12-6Toledo (79.0)MACA87-59L0%0.0
12-14Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA65-50L0%0.0
12-17Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA75-60L0%0.0
12-22SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA63-38L0%0.0
12-29Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH69-66W100%0.0
12-31Green Bay (54.0)HorzA54-50L0%0.0
1-3Bowling Green (109.0)MACA58-35L0%0.0
1-10Texas Pan American (334.0)WACA64-59L0%0.0
1-17UMKC (295.0)WACA64-62L0%0.0
1-22Seattle (280.0)WACH67-75L0%0.0
1-24Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH41-57L0%0.0
1-29Utah Valley (308.0)WACA78-62L0%0.0
1-31Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA55-56W100%0.0
2-5New Mexico St. (103.0)WACH61-69L0%0.0
2-7Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH78-73W100%0.0
2-14UMKC (295.0)WACH50-61L0%0.0
2-19Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACA64-51L0%0.0
2-21Seattle (280.0)WACA57-31L0%0.0
2-26Grand Canyon (274.0)WACH74-70W100%0.0
2-28Utah Valley (308.0)WACH65-44W100%0.0
3-7New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA61-57L0%0.0
3-12Seattle (280.0)WACN49-45L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.WAC26.3626.3616.2416.24-17.80-17.80
SeattleWAC6.026.0242.3142.31-0.93-0.93
UMKCWAC4.404.4034.4834.48-1.37-1.37
New Mexico St.WAC4.364.3665.5265.521.351.35
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.334.3332.1432.14-1.55-1.55
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.324.3223.0823.08-2.33-2.33
Utah ValleyWAC4.264.2630.7730.77-1.64-1.64
Grand CanyonWAC4.214.2155.5655.560.470.47
Nebraska OmahaSum1.931.9340.7440.74-0.36-0.36
CreightonBE1.871.8740.6240.62-0.35-0.35
OaklandHorz1.861.8644.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Georgia St.SB1.841.8470.9770.970.770.77
Green BayHorz1.841.8472.4172.410.820.82
DePaulBE1.801.8035.4835.48-0.52-0.52
ToledoMAC1.781.7859.3859.380.330.33
Western CarolinaSC1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Bowling GreenMAC1.781.7865.5265.520.550.55
Southern IllinoisMVC1.761.7632.2632.26-0.62-0.62
Western KentuckyCUSA1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.751.7536.0036.00-0.49-0.49
Arizona St.P121.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
Notre DameACC1.721.7284.8584.851.201.20
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.290.2925.0025.00-0.14-0.14
Idaho St.BSky0.240.2417.8617.86-0.15-0.15
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
South DakotaSum0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.200.2071.4371.430.090.09
Kent St.MAC0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
DetroitHorz0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
MarquetteBE0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
UC DavisBW0.150.1579.3179.310.090.09
MinnesotaB100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
ArizonaP120.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1483.3383.330.100.10
Texas St.SB0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
DrakeMVC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1487.1087.100.100.10
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.126.906.90-0.10-0.10
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.1258.3358.330.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Iowa St.B120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Seton HallBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
VillanovaBE0.110.1194.1294.120.090.09
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
IPFWSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.090.090.000.00-0.09-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0974.0774.070.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00