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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Chicago St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:279.4
Current RPI:103
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:13
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12116.60.05%
15-13143.00.12%
14-14164.40.60%
13-15180.81.39%
12-16202.02.98%
11-17223.06.60%
10-18242.711.39%
9-19263.415.36%
8-20282.718.62%
7-21299.417.43%
6-22313.912.54%
5-23325.47.71%
4-24334.63.54%
3-25341.01.26%
2-26344.30.36%
1-27347.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arizona St. (90.0)P12A86-50L0%0.0
11-16Creighton (65.7)BEA84-66L0%0.0
11-24Georgia St. (129.0)SBN0-021%-9.8
11-25Oakland (236.8)HorzA0-022%-9.2
11-26Western Carolina (212.2)SCN0-033%-5.2
11-29Notre Dame (44.0)ACCA0-01%-26.7
12-4DePaul (183.4)BEH0-035%-4.6
12-6Toledo (77.9)MACA0-08%-16.7
12-14Southern Illinois (176.0)MVCA0-016%-11.9
12-17Western Kentucky (177.9)CUSAA0-018%-11.0
12-22SIU Edwardsville (307.5)OVCA0-040%-3.0
12-29Nebraska Omaha (228.0)SumH0-044%-1.7
12-31Green Bay (103.4)HorzA0-07%-17.7
1-3Bowling Green (103.7)MACA0-012%-14.4
1-10Texas Pan American (266.8)WACA0-041%-2.8
1-17UMKC (244.5)WACA0-027%-7.5
1-22Seattle (264.4)WACH0-048%-0.5
1-24Cal St. Bakersfield (302.3)WACH0-060%3.1
1-29Utah Valley (229.7)WACA0-028%-7.0
1-31Grand Canyon (255.0)WACA0-027%-7.4
2-5New Mexico St. (91.5)WACH0-020%-10.2
2-7Texas Pan American (266.8)WACH0-064%4.4
2-14UMKC (244.5)WACH0-049%-0.3
2-19Cal St. Bakersfield (302.3)WACA0-037%-4.0
2-21Seattle (264.4)WACA0-026%-7.7
2-26Grand Canyon (255.0)WACH0-049%-0.2
2-28Utah Valley (229.7)WACH0-050%0.1
3-7New Mexico St. (91.5)WACA0-07%-17.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.WAC32.2926.340.0031.29-32.29-9.86
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.004.40100.0030.140.00-1.75
UMKCWAC0.004.3825.0043.26-0.00-0.59
SeattleWAC0.004.3625.0043.80-0.00-0.54
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.3550.0049.600.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.004.3525.0065.13-0.001.32
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.3420.0034.24-0.00-1.37
Utah ValleyWAC0.004.3466.6747.230.00-0.24
Nebraska OmahaSum0.001.9866.6747.190.00-0.11
OaklandHorz0.001.950.0032.07-0.00-0.70
Georgia St.SB0.001.920.0057.98-0.000.31
CreightonBE25.001.91100.0061.8825.000.45
Green BayHorz0.001.910.0066.27-0.000.62
ToledoMAC0.001.8533.3361.69-0.000.43
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.85100.0058.990.000.33
Western CarolinaSC0.001.850.0048.37-0.00-0.06
DePaulBE0.001.85100.0035.110.00-0.55
Southern IllinoisMVC0.001.8240.0049.70-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.8233.3341.89-0.00-0.29
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.001.820.0031.92-0.00-0.66
Arizona St.P1225.001.79100.0055.2725.000.19
Notre DameACC0.001.7980.0072.200.000.79
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.260.0033.50-0.00-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.000.260.0028.67-0.00-0.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2620.0034.58-0.00-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2333.3348.37-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.220.0036.09-0.00-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.2275.0067.590.000.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2050.0046.080.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.2066.6758.100.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.1933.3353.24-0.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1940.0038.14-0.00-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1933.3349.87-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.19100.0054.990.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1860.0056.390.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.18100.0044.560.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1833.3341.27-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.1650.0037.730.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.160.0024.98-0.00-0.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1666.6749.380.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.16100.0070.780.000.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1666.6760.490.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1666.6732.670.00-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.16100.0070.060.000.06
ProvidenceBE0.000.15100.0071.680.000.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1366.6767.580.000.05
UC DavisBW0.000.13100.0043.690.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.130.0031.79-0.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1350.0070.910.000.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1333.3342.08-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1375.0054.620.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1366.6757.190.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1366.6762.360.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.1375.0061.320.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1366.6748.940.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.130.0020.99-0.00-0.07
UtahP120.000.1366.6769.560.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1333.3348.17-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0028.18-0.00-0.05
AkronMAC0.000.1275.0070.240.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.120.0035.32-0.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.1275.0069.780.000.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0019.35-0.00-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.12100.0051.850.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.1240.0039.12-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0052.940.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0053.380.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.12100.0062.120.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0060.160.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.12100.0062.770.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1266.6749.820.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.12100.0063.690.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0051.580.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1275.0056.830.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0062.920.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.12100.0084.310.000.08
XavierBE0.000.12100.0075.510.000.06
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1020.0053.22-0.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.100.0037.26-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.1050.0063.140.000.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.10100.0051.200.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.10100.0056.730.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.100.0043.50-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1050.0039.080.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0026.81-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.0950.0031.800.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0054.910.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0975.0070.900.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0966.6750.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.090.0052.66-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.170.0925.0038.29-2.08-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0062.980.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0950.0067.640.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0072.150.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6760.880.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0966.6766.540.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.09100.0048.750.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0975.0070.150.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0043.24-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.09100.0069.430.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0950.0050.440.000.00
DukeACC0.000.09100.0085.260.000.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0750.0034.180.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0733.3335.65-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0740.0042.16-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0733.3351.73-0.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0017.40-0.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0056.35-0.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0766.6774.140.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0063.27-0.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0073.710.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0053.680.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.000.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.070.0033.64-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0064.030.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0017.97-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.070.0051.68-0.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0079.170.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0028.39-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0675.0065.560.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0020.55-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0666.6763.860.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.590.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0035.81-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.88-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.060.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.430.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6752.830.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0021.84-0.00-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0045.000.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0081.220.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3334.41-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd3.120.060.0021.40-3.12-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0054.940.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6753.760.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0666.6739.840.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0054.200.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.04-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0067.490.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.220.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.47-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0650.0051.920.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3324.24-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.410.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0088.080.000.05
MercerSC0.000.0633.3353.66-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6746.610.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.060.0031.77-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0037.29-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.66-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3367.24-0.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0029.00-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.080.000.00
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.04-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.570.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0070.560.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.240.000.03
LehighPat0.000.060.0032.42-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0060.180.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6771.100.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.770.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3321.72-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3323.14-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0062.400.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0063.440.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0037.72-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0071.230.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.80-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.060.0044.81-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0052.480.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.040.0031.49-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.040.0034.13-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.04100.0064.500.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.040.0032.23-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.04100.0051.410.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.04100.0085.040.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.380.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.94-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.870.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.590.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0046.140.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3347.23-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3328.24-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0038.210.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6752.020.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3365.28-0.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3343.07-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0059.020.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.730.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.480.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0046.960.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3347.36-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.370.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0036.00-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.47-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC4.170.0333.3326.52-1.39-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0043.51-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0032.53-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.120.030.0069.20-3.120.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0056.01-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.10-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB123.120.0366.6762.381.040.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.740.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0043.58-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.220.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6752.480.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0065.190.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.200.000.00
USCP120.000.0340.0028.63-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0074.410.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.62-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0069.430.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0028.81-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.48-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0039.620.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0325.0043.02-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.81-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0040.710.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.870.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0032.30-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0071.350.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.860.000.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.410.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.160.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6732.890.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0042.650.00-0.00