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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


Chicago St.

Conference:GWC
Expected RPI:333.6
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:277
Current SOS:197
Current Record:2-20
Expected Record:4-24
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:2-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-13
Current OOC Record:1-16
Expected OOC Record:1-17
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20278.00.01%
7-21303.40.47%
6-22313.73.93%
5-23324.314.31%
4-24332.731.16%
3-25337.834.67%
2-26340.715.44%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Iowa (140.8)B10A96-53L0%0.0
11-13Creighton (24.4)MVCA95-61L0%0.0
11-19North Carolina A&T (272.6)MEACA87-70L0%0.0
11-21Campbell (163.3)BSthH69-75L0%0.0
11-25Southern Illinois (226.0)MVCA73-57L0%0.0
11-27Illinois (48.1)B10A90-43L0%0.0
11-30Illinois St. (109.6)MVCA85-41L0%0.0
12-3Toledo (275.3)MACH61-73L0%0.0
12-10DePaul (188.9)BEA102-95L0%0.0
12-14Wichita St. (16.7)MVCA94-44L0%0.0
12-17Loyola Chicago (313.1)HorzA64-49L0%0.0
12-21Oregon St. (113.0)P12H66-92L0%0.0
12-23Cincinnati (90.4)BEA95-60L0%0.0
12-31Ball St. (220.5)MACA86-58L0%0.0
1-6Air Force (174.2)MWCA68-54L0%0.0
1-10San Diego St. (26.1)MWCA73-65L0%0.0
1-19Texas Pan American (307.3)GWCH65-72L0%0.0
1-21Houston Baptist (312.8)GWCH98-95W100%0.0
1-26Utah Valley (220.8)GWCA65-56L0%0.0
1-28North Dakota (265.8)GWCA71-61L0%0.0
2-4NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)GWCH64-73L0%0.0
2-7IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)SumH63-57W100%0.0
2-9North Dakota (265.8)GWCH0-027%-6.5
2-11Utah Valley (220.8)GWCH0-020%-9.0
2-16Houston Baptist (312.8)GWCA0-026%-7.1
2-18Texas Pan American (307.3)GWCA0-021%-8.6
2-29SIU Edwardsville (304.3)OVCH0-043%-2.0
3-3NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)GWCA0-021%-8.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.GWC26.1526.256.9811.74-22.50-20.09
Texas Pan AmericanGWC2.674.2215.0019.43-1.87-2.58
Houston BaptistGWC2.644.2126.3227.76-1.25-1.87
Utah ValleyGWC2.514.1352.3855.150.120.42
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC2.504.1229.4133.96-1.03-1.32
North DakotaGWC2.504.1229.4137.38-1.03-1.04
CreightonMVC2.722.1683.3382.021.811.38
Southern IllinoisMVC2.512.0331.8229.68-0.91-0.83
Illinois St.MVC2.562.0360.8760.770.560.44
CampbellBSth2.532.0156.0056.830.300.28
Wichita St.MVC2.461.9781.8279.811.571.17
ToledoMAC2.441.9535.0038.72-0.73-0.44
IowaB102.471.9452.1747.720.11-0.09
Air ForceMWC2.381.9244.4439.82-0.26-0.39
Ball St.MAC2.331.9152.6355.840.120.22
DePaulBE2.431.9145.4540.19-0.22-0.38
IllinoisB102.371.9168.1860.570.860.40
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.201.9126.3228.50-0.10-0.82
San Diego St.MWC2.381.8885.0077.301.661.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz2.431.8814.2916.94-1.73-1.24
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.411.8728.5732.44-1.03-0.66
CincinnatiBE2.321.8268.1864.210.840.52
IUPU Fort WayneSum2.321.8135.0033.47-0.70-0.60
Oregon St.P122.271.7961.9061.860.540.42
BradleyMVC0.400.3524.0024.86-0.21-0.17
Northern IllinoisMAC0.310.325.267.29-0.28-0.27
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.170.3147.8347.88-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.340.3152.1750.010.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.390.2747.8347.08-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.300.2756.5254.280.040.02
New MexicoMWC0.230.2781.8281.020.150.17
Northern IowaMVC0.280.2762.5061.430.070.06
WyomingMWC0.220.2676.1970.710.110.11
Missouri St.MVC0.280.2454.1757.110.020.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.2336.3640.96-0.06-0.04
Longwoodind0.060.2128.5725.79-0.03-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.2173.9175.470.110.11
Western IllinoisSum0.230.2152.6348.320.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.200.2163.6457.790.050.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.170.2134.7835.19-0.05-0.06
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.170.2076.1975.980.090.10
Texas ChristianMWC0.170.2057.1449.570.02-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.210.1982.6181.430.140.12
St. John'sBE0.150.1843.4840.24-0.02-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1733.3334.54-0.04-0.05
ArmyPat0.180.1740.9141.68-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.170.1771.4373.990.070.08
Texas St.Slnd0.170.1722.2227.56-0.09-0.07
OaklandSum0.110.1648.0050.28-0.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.160.1656.5256.800.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.160.1642.8641.08-0.02-0.03
RutgersBE0.210.1650.0046.870.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.110.1665.2263.650.030.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1640.9138.38-0.03-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1640.9142.97-0.03-0.02
Ohio St.B100.150.1587.5085.410.110.11
PurdueB100.200.1562.5060.780.050.03
MinnesotaB100.240.1470.8362.750.100.04
NebraskaB100.140.1450.0044.980.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1431.8232.98-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1461.9063.520.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1465.0066.710.030.05
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1345.4547.09-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1366.6760.840.040.03
IUPUISum0.220.1334.7835.53-0.07-0.04
Seattleind0.100.1322.2232.99-0.06-0.04
WashingtonP120.110.1369.5766.590.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.160.1380.9577.450.100.07
Wright St.Horz0.210.1341.6740.47-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.160.1366.6762.690.050.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1328.5734.11-0.05-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1328.5729.05-0.07-0.05
WisconsinB100.100.1275.0074.010.050.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1150.0051.750.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.104.359.74-0.10-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.050.1034.7837.18-0.02-0.03
Southern UtahSum0.160.1045.4544.27-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.1034.7838.43-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1065.2263.550.030.03
HoustonCUSA0.100.1047.6244.58-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.100.1042.8645.93-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.100.1050.0052.950.000.01
ButlerHorz0.110.1050.0050.810.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1022.7324.64-0.09-0.05
AkronMAC0.160.0968.1867.980.060.03
ArizonaP120.160.0966.6768.550.050.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.0982.6181.410.100.06
OhioMAC0.110.0981.8277.180.070.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.0952.3853.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.100.0943.4843.89-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.150.0965.2263.690.050.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0956.5257.810.010.01
CaliforniaP120.110.0975.0074.620.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.0920.8325.85-0.09-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0969.5770.420.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.160.0930.0034.18-0.06-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.0955.0060.350.010.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.150.0939.1336.12-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0979.1774.200.030.04
PresbyterianBSth0.140.0940.9143.65-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0980.0076.670.030.05
VillanovaBE0.100.0945.8345.52-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0975.0075.730.020.04
MichiganB100.050.0969.5766.330.020.03
Penn St.B100.100.0941.6738.63-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.060.0730.4329.49-0.02-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.078.7012.14-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.060.0778.2678.420.040.04
LafayettePat0.060.0743.4842.98-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.060.0770.8371.060.030.03
Louisiana TechWAC0.000.0742.8643.52-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0768.0069.080.020.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0773.9168.650.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0730.0033.22-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0747.6247.19-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0756.5255.970.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0760.8759.850.000.01
DuquesneA100.060.0759.0956.380.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0754.1754.760.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0725.0023.73-0.03-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0780.7780.770.030.04
RiceCUSA0.060.0747.6246.51-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0728.5726.31-0.02-0.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0726.3228.82-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0719.0519.39-0.07-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.050.0769.5765.180.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0727.2735.05-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0766.6769.710.020.03
GramblingSWAC0.050.0714.2914.31-0.04-0.05
LamarSlnd0.050.0761.9067.290.010.02
MaineAE0.050.0747.6248.01-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0761.9058.610.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.0645.0044.18-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.100.0647.8348.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0642.1145.89-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0654.5558.390.000.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0635.0039.40-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0614.2916.80-0.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.110.0681.8281.500.070.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0647.6248.81-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.0668.4266.510.040.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0621.7425.63-0.06-0.03
Kansas St.B120.100.0673.9168.410.050.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0671.4369.050.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.110.0625.0025.08-0.05-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0671.4373.450.020.03
OregonP120.050.0669.5764.490.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0669.5768.330.020.02
TempleA100.100.0677.2775.070.060.03
UtahP120.050.0618.1815.00-0.03-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0650.0048.170.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0642.1149.86-0.02-0.00
Arizona St.P120.100.0630.4331.40-0.04-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.090.0660.8759.050.020.01
UABCUSA0.090.0640.9139.81-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.0647.8345.51-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0668.4268.620.030.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0634.7838.74-0.03-0.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0627.2727.33-0.02-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.090.0668.1867.720.030.02
WinthropBSth0.040.0634.7834.75-0.01-0.02
High PointBSth0.040.0631.8232.81-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0665.2262.350.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0655.0054.450.000.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0665.2262.670.020.01
PittsburghBE0.100.0662.5059.520.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0652.0048.780.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.090.068.7013.12-0.08-0.04
South FloridaBE0.050.0654.5548.540.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.100.0695.8392.000.090.05
West VirginiaBE0.050.0666.6765.980.020.02
Michigan St.B100.100.0677.2773.500.050.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0432.0035.39-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.04100.0094.580.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0456.5253.060.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.12-0.04-0.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0382.6184.580.040.02
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.900.040.02
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.84-0.05-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.76-0.03-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.550.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0338.8941.49-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0352.3849.770.00-0.00
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.45-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0345.4547.20-0.00-0.00
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.020.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0323.8133.67-0.03-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0334.7833.38-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3333.82-0.02-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0390.9187.780.040.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0331.8242.18-0.02-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.030.005.31-0.05-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0355.5658.020.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0369.5770.160.020.01
DavidsonSC0.000.0377.2777.370.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.8347.36-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0350.0051.460.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0326.3229.85-0.00-0.01
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.700.030.02
TexasB120.050.0362.5062.200.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.27-0.05-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.780.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.880.020.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0334.7834.46-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.040.0333.3337.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.26-0.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0350.0056.750.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.040.0344.4441.65-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0339.1344.46-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.680.010.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0352.1758.490.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0370.8364.530.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0362.5062.420.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0330.4325.84-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0356.5255.220.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5735.72-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.78-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.77-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0336.8441.47-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0345.4541.17-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8366.500.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.780.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0360.8753.440.010.00
MissouriB120.050.0391.6787.920.040.02
OklahomaB120.050.0356.5253.940.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.480.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.090.010.01