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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Chicago St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:344.4
Current RPI:343
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:203
Current Record:1-22
Expected Record:2-26
Current Conf Record:0-9
Expected Conf Record:1-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-10
Current OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-23327.90.36%
4-24336.34.84%
3-25342.126.03%
2-26345.447.81%
1-27347.320.95%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Iowa St. (21.1)B12A106-64L0%0.0
11-23Illinois (157.1)B10A82-79L0%0.0
11-27Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCN68-65L0%0.0
11-28Alabama St. (305.5)SWACN64-66L0%0.0
12-2Northern Illinois (140.3)MACA80-58L0%0.0
12-5DePaul (168.3)BEA96-72L0%0.0
12-11Valparaiso (36.3)HorzH53-71L0%0.0
12-13Northwestern (120.6)B10A77-35L0%0.0
12-16Minnesota (243.6)B10A70-52L0%0.0
12-19Western Illinois (242.9)SumH77-70W100%0.0
12-21Marquette (117.6)BEA91-74L0%0.0
12-28Oakland (122.5)HorzA101-93L0%0.0
12-31Ball St. (168.1)MACA73-48L0%0.0
1-9Seattle (273.2)WACH50-66L0%0.0
1-11Cal St. Bakersfield (144.0)WACH56-67L0%0.0
1-14UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACA82-72L0%0.0
1-16New Mexico St. (119.9)WACA80-62L0%0.0
1-19Green Bay (155.8)HorzH66-99L0%0.0
1-21Grand Canyon (98.0)WACH65-90L0%0.0
1-23Utah Valley (259.4)WACH76-82L0%0.0
1-30UMKC (273.8)WACA78-64L0%0.0
2-4Seattle (273.2)WACA59-56L0%0.0
2-6Cal St. Bakersfield (144.0)WACA71-48L0%0.0
2-13New Mexico St. (119.9)WACH0-07%-16.2
2-18Utah Valley (259.4)WACA0-017%-10.4
2-20Grand Canyon (98.0)WACA0-03%-21.2
2-27UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACH0-062%3.4
3-5UMKC (273.8)WACH0-028%-6.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.WAC26.3126.373.095.99-24.68-23.21
UMKCWAC2.824.4125.0028.28-1.41-1.91
Grand CanyonWAC2.784.3982.6180.811.812.70
New Mexico St.WAC2.674.3963.6466.460.731.44
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.754.3863.1664.961.251.31
SeattleWAC4.804.3840.0039.31-0.96-0.94
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.674.3810.0011.01-2.14-3.41
Utah ValleyWAC2.674.3830.0030.23-1.07-1.73
MinnesotaB102.361.9721.7424.75-1.33-0.99
ValparaisoHorz2.311.9381.8282.421.471.25
OaklandHorz2.271.9164.0064.350.640.55
Green BayHorz2.261.9054.5556.180.210.24
NorthwesternB102.311.9062.5060.830.580.41
IllinoisB102.261.9043.4842.20-0.30-0.30
Ball St.MAC2.221.8859.0955.690.400.21
DePaulBE2.261.8730.4331.75-0.88-0.68
MarquetteBE2.221.8562.5056.490.550.24
Northern IllinoisMAC2.171.8557.8956.050.340.22
Jacksonville St.OVC2.231.8220.8321.45-1.30-1.04
Alabama St.SWAC2.221.8225.0030.82-1.11-0.70
Iowa St.B122.221.8169.5766.890.870.61
Western IllinoisSum2.171.7933.3333.43-0.72-0.59
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.390.319.5210.67-0.31-0.24
South DakotaSum0.360.3044.0043.56-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.340.2920.0022.24-0.20-0.16
IowaB100.290.2579.1778.890.170.14
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.2458.3358.580.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.140.2247.6249.39-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.240.2154.1753.810.020.02
WisconsinB100.240.2162.5056.990.060.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2160.8762.470.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.150.2079.1776.000.090.10
Portland St.BSky0.200.2030.0035.92-0.08-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.200.2060.8759.830.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.150.2054.1754.210.010.02
ToledoMAC0.250.1960.8762.070.050.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1821.7422.78-0.10-0.10
DetroitHorz0.180.1845.4543.88-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.270.1831.8235.12-0.10-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.1830.4332.24-0.09-0.06
Ohio St.B100.280.1860.0055.570.060.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1773.9174.640.070.09
IdahoBSky0.260.1756.5255.330.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1750.0050.500.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.1739.1341.06-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.1624.0025.68-0.13-0.08
UABCUSA0.240.1683.3379.820.160.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1640.0040.34-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1645.8342.30-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1631.8232.68-0.07-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1540.0043.21-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.150.1564.0062.070.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1516.6719.49-0.12-0.09
BelmontOVC0.220.1568.0066.640.080.05
IndianaB100.180.1580.0075.690.110.07
RutgersB100.050.1521.7420.33-0.03-0.09
Penn St.B100.130.1550.0046.760.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.180.1572.0069.130.080.06
DenverSum0.170.1452.0049.300.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1441.6742.39-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.1454.5555.550.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1447.6248.05-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1481.8281.780.100.09
UC DavisBW0.150.1438.1035.34-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1477.2773.930.060.07
Utah St.MWC0.100.1447.6249.27-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.210.1338.4638.50-0.05-0.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1370.8367.980.040.05
WyomingMWC0.150.1343.4842.54-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.1358.3360.710.020.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.1361.9065.340.020.04
AkronMAC0.150.1382.6181.130.100.08
OhioMAC0.200.1365.2263.630.060.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.1365.2264.330.030.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1236.8442.87-0.04-0.02
BaylorB120.090.1273.9168.450.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1283.3383.710.120.08
Virginia TechACC0.180.1252.0048.910.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.130.1270.8368.990.060.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.1256.0052.860.020.01
MichiganB100.140.1270.8366.750.060.04
Seton HallBE0.130.1270.8368.090.060.04
St. John'sBE0.090.1225.0023.43-0.04-0.06
VillanovaBE0.090.1287.5086.850.070.09
XavierBE0.180.1287.5081.840.130.07
MarylandB100.090.1287.5083.680.070.08
Michigan St.B100.180.1280.0081.550.110.07
NebraskaB100.130.1252.0050.770.010.00
IPFWSum0.100.1170.8368.650.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1013.0415.26-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.8323.28-0.06-0.05
Arizona St.P120.150.1056.0053.630.020.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1062.5064.110.020.03
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1023.8122.85-0.07-0.05
WashingtonP120.140.1062.5060.140.040.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.0934.7832.89-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0915.0018.12-0.07-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0950.0054.220.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0926.9228.60-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0952.1753.440.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.150.0954.1754.420.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0950.0049.320.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.140.0933.3330.27-0.05-0.04
PurdueB100.090.0980.0077.900.050.05
Texas TechB120.140.0960.8755.310.030.01
BYUWCC0.050.0768.0070.260.020.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0733.3330.63-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.100.0766.6764.780.030.02
DartmouthIvy0.100.0730.0031.18-0.04-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.100.0763.6461.560.030.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0730.0029.17-0.02-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0782.6177.600.030.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0743.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0743.4844.81-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0719.0525.89-0.06-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.079.5212.09-0.08-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0740.0045.19-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0714.2914.92-0.04-0.05
Texas St.SB0.050.0740.0038.87-0.01-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0745.8341.64-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0745.4551.69-0.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0721.7422.42-0.03-0.04
UTSACUSA0.050.0713.0412.96-0.04-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.050.0766.6769.760.020.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0643.4837.80-0.01-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0631.8236.13-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.0912.25-0.04-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.290.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0650.0049.890.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0647.8351.93-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0650.0051.150.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.13-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0669.5770.090.020.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.18-0.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0669.5770.020.020.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0650.0045.860.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.0665.2260.710.030.01
WinthropBSth0.100.0666.6763.790.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0668.1865.190.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0637.5037.41-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.090.0647.6244.07-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0626.3232.42-0.04-0.02
KansasB120.050.0682.6179.210.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0658.3356.290.010.01
OklahomaB120.090.0686.9682.620.070.04
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.36-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.200.020.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.100.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0445.8343.78-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0331.8230.08-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
ElonCAA0.050.0350.0050.080.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0372.0073.080.020.01
MercerSC0.050.0366.6767.110.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0360.8755.980.010.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.1751.980.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.46-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.050.0379.1777.220.030.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6458.770.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0323.8125.99-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.0055.750.010.00
SamfordSC0.040.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0386.3684.240.030.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.330.020.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0375.0071.980.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0321.7424.59-0.03-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0345.4549.06-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.67-0.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0358.3360.910.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.430.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0365.2262.360.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0335.0034.87-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0324.0026.42-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.570.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0370.8365.570.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0354.5552.530.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0368.1865.570.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.63-0.03-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0354.1754.100.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0359.0955.160.010.00
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.19-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.040.0362.5059.070.010.01
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.17-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0383.3378.390.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0356.0055.450.010.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.910.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0323.8125.48-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0333.3336.30-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0373.0872.610.020.01
StetsonASun0.040.0322.7327.37-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.350.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0337.5037.68-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0383.3378.460.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0375.0075.100.020.01