Chicago St.

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	320.0
Current RPI:	320
Expected SOS:	293
Current SOS:	293
Current Record:	7-21
Expected Record:	7-21
Current Conf Record:	5-5
Expected Conf Record:	5-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-12
Current OOC Record:	2-16
Expected OOC Record:	2-16
Expected OOC RPI:	320
Expected OOC SOS:	227

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-21	320.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	A	72-67	L	0%
11-16	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	A	92-63	L	0%
11-18	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	A	79-51	L	0%
11-23	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	67-46	L	0%
11-24	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	N	66-68	L	0%
11-26	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	92-65	L	0%
12-1	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	A	71-57	L	0%
12-5	DePaul (204.0)	BE	H	64-74	L	0%
12-8	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	67-54	W	100%
12-16	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	87-77	L	0%
12-19	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	63-60	L	0%
12-22	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	79-57	L	0%
12-29	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	A	87-44	L	0%
12-31	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	A	53-58	W	100%
1-3	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	74-52	L	0%
1-12	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	83-78	L	0%
1-19	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	81-56	W	100%
1-20	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	63-66	L	0%
1-26	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	62-54	W	100%
2-2	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	68-65	L	0%
2-9	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	H	58-63	L	0%
2-19	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	79-75	L	0%
2-23	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	51-55	L	0%
2-26	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	50-58	L	0%
3-2	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	A	76-69	L	0%
3-9	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	A	58-71	W	100%
3-15	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	63-55	W	100%
3-16	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	75-60	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Chicago St.	GWC	26.43	26.43	25.44	25.44	-12.98	-12.98
Texas Pan American	GWC	6.06	6.06	40.00	40.00	-1.21	-1.21
Houston Baptist	GWC	6.01	6.01	44.00	44.00	-0.72	-0.72
Utah Valley	GWC	4.19	4.19	34.62	34.62	-1.29	-1.29
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	4.18	4.18	43.48	43.48	-0.54	-0.54
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	3.69	3.69	29.63	29.63	-1.51	-1.51
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.08	2.08	33.33	33.33	-0.69	-0.69
Tulane	CUSA	2.06	2.06	54.84	54.84	0.20	0.20
Houston	CUSA	2.03	2.03	58.62	58.62	0.35	0.35
Rice	CUSA	2.03	2.03	10.71	10.71	-1.59	-1.59
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.99	1.99	44.83	44.83	-0.21	-0.21
Valparaiso	Horz	1.96	1.96	77.42	77.42	1.07	1.07
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.94	1.94	25.00	25.00	-0.97	-0.97
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.93	1.93	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.88	1.88	30.00	30.00	-0.75	-0.75
Oregon St.	P12	1.88	1.88	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Kent St.	MAC	1.88	1.88	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Toledo	MAC	1.87	1.87	55.56	55.56	0.21	0.21
DePaul	BE	1.87	1.87	32.26	32.26	-0.66	-0.66
Notre Dame	BE	1.84	1.84	72.73	72.73	0.84	0.84
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.79	1.79	71.88	71.88	0.78	0.78
Ohio St.	B10	1.79	1.79	78.12	78.12	1.00	1.00
New Orleans	ind	0.56	0.56	18.18	18.18	-0.35	-0.35
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.41	0.41	22.58	22.58	-0.22	-0.22
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.33	0.33	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.31	0.31	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.30	0.30	13.79	13.79	-0.22	-0.22
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.30	0.30	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.29	0.29	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.23	0.23	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.23	0.23	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.23	0.23	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.23	0.23	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.23	0.23	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Nebraska	B10	0.23	0.23	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.22	0.22	71.43	71.43	0.10	0.10
Austin Peay	OVC	0.22	0.22	20.69	20.69	-0.13	-0.13
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.16	-0.16
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.21	0.21	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
Troy	SB	0.19	0.19	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	14.29	14.29	-0.10	-0.10
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	67.86	67.86	0.05	0.05
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	7.14	7.14	-0.11	-0.11
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.12	-0.12
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.04	0.04	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00