Chicago St.

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	333.6
Current RPI:	325
Expected SOS:	277
Current SOS:	197
Current Record:	2-20
Expected Record:	4-24
Current Conf Record:	1-4
Expected Conf Record:	2-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-13
Current OOC Record:	1-16
Expected OOC Record:	1-17
Expected OOC RPI:	324
Expected OOC SOS:	175

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-20	278.0	0.01%
7-21	303.4	0.47%
6-22	313.7	3.93%
5-23	324.3	14.31%
4-24	332.7	31.16%
3-25	337.8	34.67%
2-26	340.7	15.44%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Iowa (140.8)	B10	A	96-53	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Creighton (24.4)	MVC	A	95-61	L	0%	0.0
11-19	North Carolina A&T (272.6)	MEAC	A	87-70	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Campbell (163.3)	BSth	H	69-75	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Southern Illinois (226.0)	MVC	A	73-57	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Illinois (48.1)	B10	A	90-43	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Illinois St. (109.6)	MVC	A	85-41	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Toledo (275.3)	MAC	H	61-73	L	0%	0.0
12-10	DePaul (188.9)	BE	A	102-95	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Wichita St. (16.7)	MVC	A	94-44	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Loyola Chicago (313.1)	Horz	A	64-49	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Oregon St. (113.0)	P12	H	66-92	L	0%	0.0
12-23	Cincinnati (90.4)	BE	A	95-60	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Ball St. (220.5)	MAC	A	86-58	L	0%	0.0
1-6	Air Force (174.2)	MWC	A	68-54	L	0%	0.0
1-10	San Diego St. (26.1)	MWC	A	73-65	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Texas Pan American (307.3)	GWC	H	65-72	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Houston Baptist (312.8)	GWC	H	98-95	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	A	65-56	L	0%	0.0
1-28	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	A	71-61	L	0%	0.0
2-4	NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)	GWC	H	64-73	L	0%	0.0
2-7	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	63-57	W	100%	0.0
2-9	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	H	0-0		27%	-6.5
2-11	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	H	0-0		20%	-9.0
2-16	Houston Baptist (312.8)	GWC	A	0-0		26%	-7.1
2-18	Texas Pan American (307.3)	GWC	A	0-0		21%	-8.6
2-29	SIU Edwardsville (304.3)	OVC	H	0-0		43%	-2.0
3-3	NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)	GWC	A	0-0		21%	-8.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Chicago St.	GWC	26.15	26.25	6.98	11.74	-22.50	-20.09
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.67	4.22	15.00	19.43	-1.87	-2.58
Houston Baptist	GWC	2.64	4.21	26.32	27.76	-1.25	-1.87
Utah Valley	GWC	2.51	4.13	52.38	55.15	0.12	0.42
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.50	4.12	29.41	33.96	-1.03	-1.32
North Dakota	GWC	2.50	4.12	29.41	37.38	-1.03	-1.04
Creighton	MVC	2.72	2.16	83.33	82.02	1.81	1.38
Southern Illinois	MVC	2.51	2.03	31.82	29.68	-0.91	-0.83
Illinois St.	MVC	2.56	2.03	60.87	60.77	0.56	0.44
Campbell	BSth	2.53	2.01	56.00	56.83	0.30	0.28
Wichita St.	MVC	2.46	1.97	81.82	79.81	1.57	1.17
Toledo	MAC	2.44	1.95	35.00	38.72	-0.73	-0.44
Iowa	B10	2.47	1.94	52.17	47.72	0.11	-0.09
Air Force	MWC	2.38	1.92	44.44	39.82	-0.26	-0.39
Ball St.	MAC	2.33	1.91	52.63	55.84	0.12	0.22
DePaul	BE	2.43	1.91	45.45	40.19	-0.22	-0.38
Illinois	B10	2.37	1.91	68.18	60.57	0.86	0.40
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.20	1.91	26.32	28.50	-0.10	-0.82
San Diego St.	MWC	2.38	1.88	85.00	77.30	1.66	1.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	2.43	1.88	14.29	16.94	-1.73	-1.24
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.41	1.87	28.57	32.44	-1.03	-0.66
Cincinnati	BE	2.32	1.82	68.18	64.21	0.84	0.52
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	2.32	1.81	35.00	33.47	-0.70	-0.60
Oregon St.	P12	2.27	1.79	61.90	61.86	0.54	0.42
Bradley	MVC	0.40	0.35	24.00	24.86	-0.21	-0.17
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.31	0.32	5.26	7.29	-0.28	-0.27
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.17	0.31	47.83	47.88	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.34	0.31	52.17	50.01	0.01	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.39	0.27	47.83	47.08	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.30	0.27	56.52	54.28	0.04	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.23	0.27	81.82	81.02	0.15	0.17
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.28	0.27	62.50	61.43	0.07	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.22	0.26	76.19	70.71	0.11	0.11
Missouri St.	MVC	0.28	0.24	54.17	57.11	0.02	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.21	0.23	36.36	40.96	-0.06	-0.04
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.21	28.57	25.79	-0.03	-0.10
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.23	0.21	73.91	75.47	0.11	0.11
Western Illinois	Sum	0.23	0.21	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.20	0.21	63.64	57.79	0.05	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.17	0.21	34.78	35.19	-0.05	-0.06
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.17	0.20	76.19	75.98	0.09	0.10
Texas Christian	MWC	0.17	0.20	57.14	49.57	0.02	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.21	0.19	82.61	81.43	0.14	0.12
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.18	43.48	40.24	-0.02	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.17	33.33	34.54	-0.04	-0.05
Army	Pat	0.18	0.17	40.91	41.68	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.17	0.17	71.43	73.99	0.07	0.08
Texas St.	Slnd	0.17	0.17	22.22	27.56	-0.09	-0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.16	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	42.86	41.08	-0.02	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.21	0.16	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.16	65.22	63.65	0.03	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.16	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	40.91	42.97	-0.03	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.15	0.15	87.50	85.41	0.11	0.11
Purdue	B10	0.20	0.15	62.50	60.78	0.05	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.24	0.14	70.83	62.75	0.10	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.14	31.82	32.98	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.17	0.14	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.14	65.00	66.71	0.03	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.13	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.13	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.22	0.13	34.78	35.53	-0.07	-0.04
Seattle	ind	0.10	0.13	22.22	32.99	-0.06	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.11	0.13	69.57	66.59	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.16	0.13	80.95	77.45	0.10	0.07
Wright St.	Horz	0.21	0.13	41.67	40.47	-0.04	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.16	0.13	66.67	62.69	0.05	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.13	28.57	34.11	-0.05	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.13	28.57	29.05	-0.07	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.12	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.11	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.10	4.35	9.74	-0.10	-0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.10	34.78	37.18	-0.02	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.16	0.10	45.45	44.27	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.10	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.10	65.22	63.55	0.03	0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.10	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.10	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.16	0.10	22.73	24.64	-0.09	-0.05
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.09	68.18	67.98	0.06	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.09	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.16	0.09	82.61	81.41	0.10	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.09	81.82	77.18	0.07	0.05
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.16	0.09	52.38	53.29	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.09	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.15	0.09	65.22	63.69	0.05	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.09	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.11	0.09	75.00	74.62	0.05	0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.16	0.09	20.83	25.85	-0.09	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	69.57	70.42	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.16	0.09	30.00	34.18	-0.06	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.14	0.09	55.00	60.35	0.01	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.09	39.13	36.12	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.09	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.14	0.09	40.91	43.65	-0.02	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.09	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.09	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.09	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.04
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.09	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.09	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.07	30.43	29.49	-0.02	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.07	8.70	12.14	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.07	78.26	78.42	0.04	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.07	43.48	42.98	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.07	70.83	71.06	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.07	42.86	43.52	-0.00	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.07	68.00	69.08	0.02	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.07	73.91	68.65	0.03	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	30.00	33.22	-0.03	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.00	0.07	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.07	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.07	60.87	59.85	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.07	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.07	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.07	80.77	80.77	0.03	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.07	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.07	28.57	26.31	-0.02	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.07	26.32	28.82	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.07	19.05	19.39	-0.07	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.07	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.07	27.27	35.05	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.07	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.07	14.29	14.31	-0.04	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.07	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.07	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.07	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.06	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.06	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	14.29	16.80	-0.00	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.06	81.82	81.50	0.07	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.06	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.06	68.42	66.51	0.04	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.06	21.74	25.63	-0.06	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.41	0.05	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.06	25.00	25.08	-0.05	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.06	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.49	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	75.07	0.06	0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.00	-0.03	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.02	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.06	30.43	31.40	-0.04	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.06	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.06	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.09	0.06	68.42	68.62	0.03	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	38.74	-0.03	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.04	0.06	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.06	68.18	67.72	0.03	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.04	0.06	34.78	34.75	-0.01	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.04	0.06	31.82	32.81	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.67	0.02	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.06	62.50	59.52	0.02	0.01
Providence	BE	0.00	0.06	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.06	8.70	13.12	-0.08	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.06	95.83	92.00	0.09	0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.05	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.00	0.04	32.00	35.39	-0.00	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.00	0.04	100.00	94.58	0.00	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.00	0.04	56.52	53.06	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.03	82.61	84.58	0.04	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.76	-0.03	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.20	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.38	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.78	0.04	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.31	-0.05	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.03	55.56	58.02	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.37	0.00	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.85	-0.00	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.05	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.04	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.03	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.04	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.01	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.77	-0.02	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.47	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01