live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Chicago St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:332.8
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:258
Current SOS:271
Current Record:5-22
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:4-9
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22323.41.18%
5-23332.998.82%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arizona St. (94.1)P12A86-50L0%0.0
11-16Creighton (135.1)BEA84-66L0%0.0
11-24Georgia St. (74.0)SBN46-69L0%0.0
11-25Oakland (129.7)HorzA70-57L0%0.0
11-26Western Carolina (236.4)SCN66-61L0%0.0
11-29Notre Dame (24.8)ACCA90-42L0%0.0
12-4DePaul (175.5)BEH60-84L0%0.0
12-6Toledo (74.4)MACA87-59L0%0.0
12-14Southern Illinois (285.6)MVCA65-50L0%0.0
12-17Western Kentucky (111.7)CUSAA75-60L0%0.0
12-22SIU Edwardsville (287.5)OVCA63-38L0%0.0
12-29Nebraska Omaha (298.4)SumH69-66W100%0.0
12-31Green Bay (60.4)HorzA54-50L0%0.0
1-3Bowling Green (91.6)MACA58-35L0%0.0
1-10Texas Pan American (333.5)WACA64-59L0%0.0
1-17UMKC (279.6)WACA64-62L0%0.0
1-22Seattle (287.3)WACH67-75L0%0.0
1-24Cal St. Bakersfield (296.5)WACH41-57L0%0.0
1-29Utah Valley (306.3)WACA78-62L0%0.0
1-31Grand Canyon (278.1)WACA55-56W100%0.0
2-5New Mexico St. (113.5)WACH61-69L0%0.0
2-7Texas Pan American (333.5)WACH78-73W100%0.0
2-14UMKC (279.6)WACH50-61L0%0.0
2-19Cal St. Bakersfield (296.5)WACA64-51L0%0.0
2-21Seattle (287.3)WACA57-31L0%0.0
2-26Grand Canyon (278.1)WACH74-70W100%0.0
2-28Utah Valley (306.3)WACH65-44W100%0.0
3-7New Mexico St. (113.5)WACA0-01%-23.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.WAC26.3226.3317.4317.03-17.15-17.36
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.464.4020.8321.45-2.60-2.51
UMKCWAC4.434.3834.6235.69-1.36-1.25
SeattleWAC4.424.3643.4843.35-0.58-0.58
Grand CanyonWAC4.404.3553.8554.060.340.35
New Mexico St.WAC2.694.3562.9662.960.701.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.404.3432.0033.09-1.58-1.47
Utah ValleyWAC4.394.3429.1729.59-1.83-1.77
Nebraska OmahaSum2.061.9840.7440.74-0.38-0.37
OaklandHorz2.011.9446.4346.43-0.14-0.14
Georgia St.SB1.981.9166.6767.190.660.66
CreightonBE1.981.9141.3841.07-0.34-0.34
Green BayHorz1.981.9174.0774.070.950.92
ToledoMAC1.921.8562.0761.770.460.44
Bowling GreenMAC1.921.8569.2367.590.740.65
Western CarolinaSC1.921.8540.7440.74-0.35-0.34
DePaulBE1.911.8437.9337.62-0.46-0.46
Southern IllinoisMVC1.891.8231.0331.03-0.72-0.69
Western KentuckyCUSA1.891.8260.0057.410.380.27
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.881.8236.0036.00-0.53-0.51
Arizona St.P121.851.7950.0050.960.000.03
Notre DameACC1.851.7982.7683.011.211.18
Idaho St.BSky0.280.2615.3816.33-0.19-0.17
MilwaukeeHorz0.260.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.260.2523.3323.33-0.14-0.13
South DakotaSum0.240.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.230.2265.5265.390.070.07
DetroitHorz0.230.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.2068.0066.550.080.07
Wright St.Horz0.200.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.1967.8667.860.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.1953.5753.570.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.200.1976.0075.240.100.09
New MexicoMWC0.130.1848.2848.71-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1844.4444.65-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.160.1837.9339.05-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.180.1644.0045.86-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.1667.8669.260.040.06
ArizonaP120.170.1589.6689.950.130.12
BuffaloMAC0.130.1568.9769.160.050.06
Miami OHMAC0.170.1541.3841.54-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1542.8642.02-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.160.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.150.1470.0069.390.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1369.2369.550.060.05
UC DavisBW0.150.1380.0079.440.090.08
MinnesotaB100.140.1357.1456.730.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1353.5753.570.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1321.4321.43-0.08-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.140.1385.7185.710.100.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.140.1334.4833.48-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.140.1360.7160.060.030.03
Texas St.SB0.140.1341.6741.69-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.140.1321.4321.45-0.08-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1353.5753.570.010.01
SamfordSC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.130.1346.1544.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1382.1482.140.080.08
UtahP120.140.1277.7878.830.080.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.123.574.55-0.09-0.11
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1259.0960.710.020.03
Iowa St.B120.130.1272.4172.040.060.05
AkronMAC0.130.1258.6257.940.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.130.1222.2223.21-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.100.1258.6255.600.020.01
OhioMAC0.130.1232.1432.89-0.05-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1255.5655.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1289.6689.660.080.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1253.8553.590.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1257.1456.680.020.02
ButlerBE0.120.1270.0069.320.050.04
GeorgetownBE0.120.1267.8668.400.040.04
Seton HallBE0.120.1255.1753.880.010.01
St. John'sBE0.120.1268.9767.100.050.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1293.3393.130.110.10
XavierBE0.090.1260.0060.260.020.02
IPFWSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.100.1050.0049.000.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.100.1022.2222.12-0.06-0.05
WashingtonP120.110.1053.5752.290.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0910.3410.34-0.08-0.07
IUPUISum0.100.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0978.5779.290.040.05
Kansas St.B120.100.0950.0048.800.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0946.1547.43-0.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0957.6958.370.010.02
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0982.7681.940.040.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0928.5729.92-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.100.0975.0075.320.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0971.4371.430.030.04
ClemsonACC0.060.0955.1753.660.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0938.4639.08-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
ColoradoP120.090.0946.4346.74-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.090.0990.0088.620.070.07
OregonP120.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
Oregon St.P120.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
StanfordP120.060.0964.2961.970.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0725.9325.33-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0724.1423.74-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.070.0757.6958.440.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.070.000.13-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0755.5656.070.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0760.8761.600.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0779.3178.180.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0737.0436.25-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0737.9338.64-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0744.0043.03-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0776.0074.340.040.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0730.7731.71-0.03-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0740.0040.12-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0635.4836.32-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0644.8346.90-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0668.9768.970.030.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0651.8551.850.000.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0640.7440.32-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0624.0024.96-0.04-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0646.4345.05-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0622.2222.22-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0658.6258.810.010.01
High PointBSth0.070.0670.3770.370.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0633.3331.64-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0651.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0625.0024.21-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0666.6766.670.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0675.8676.590.040.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0630.7730.77-0.03-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.070.0679.3179.310.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0626.9226.01-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0626.9225.63-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.030.0672.4173.240.010.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0663.3362.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.06100.0099.900.070.06
MissouriSEC0.070.0627.5927.73-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.030.0621.4321.43-0.02-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0658.6260.320.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0664.2964.290.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0671.4370.300.010.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0655.1754.370.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.067.417.65-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.070.0676.6775.470.040.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.3363.690.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0650.0050.800.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0666.6766.650.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0644.8344.45-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0646.1544.40-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0683.3382.790.040.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0666.6766.280.020.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0660.0059.680.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0637.0437.15-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0670.8368.830.010.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0653.8555.450.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0660.0059.390.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.0090.000.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.070.0625.9327.35-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.070.0630.7731.17-0.03-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0637.9338.79-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.040.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0362.9662.960.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.0029.85-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0379.3178.690.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0340.7440.36-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0375.8676.590.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0337.9338.93-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0325.9325.08-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.040.0332.0031.14-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0344.8343.74-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0327.5928.43-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.040.0366.6766.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.040.0353.5754.420.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.6257.790.010.00
WisconsinB100.030.0389.6688.010.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0327.2727.95-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0370.3768.760.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.2222.87-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.3363.730.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.74-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0356.6755.630.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0337.5039.77-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0370.0069.450.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.9277.700.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.240.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0353.5754.710.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.9768.870.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.3363.340.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.0059.110.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0368.9768.960.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0375.0073.140.020.01
UCLAP120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.7253.220.000.00
USCP120.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0372.4172.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.5595.350.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.08-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0343.3343.11-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0342.8641.43-0.00-0.00