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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Chicago St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:259.0
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:227
Current SOS:227
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:162



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19259.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Indiana (102.0)B10A100-72L0%0.0
11-12Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH79-75W100%0.0
11-15Bradley (265.0)MVCA77-64L0%0.0
11-18Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA79-75L0%0.0
11-22Illinois (70.0)B10A77-53L0%0.0
11-30Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH88-84W100%0.0
12-4Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA75-56L0%0.0
12-15DePaul (154.0)BEA77-70L0%0.0
12-16SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH81-64W100%0.0
12-23Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA102-62L0%0.0
12-29Creighton (10.0)BEA90-58L0%0.0
1-4Idaho (238.0)WACA55-57W100%0.0
1-7Green Bay (58.0)HorzH62-98L0%0.0
1-11UMKC (248.0)WACA66-68W100%0.0
1-16New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH86-81W100%0.0
1-18Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH61-84L0%0.0
1-23Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA63-71W100%0.0
1-25Utah Valley (144.0)WACA62-55L0%0.0
1-30Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH75-76L0%0.0
2-8UMKC (248.0)WACH81-74W100%0.0
2-13Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA71-68L0%0.0
2-15New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA84-55L0%0.0
2-20Utah Valley (144.0)WACH70-79L0%0.0
2-22Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH73-68W100%0.0
2-24Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA84-62L0%0.0
2-27Seattle (267.0)WACA77-84W100%0.0
3-1Grand Canyon (203.0)WACA84-74L0%0.0
3-6Idaho (238.0)WACH76-79L0%0.0
3-8Seattle (267.0)WACH67-53W100%0.0
3-13Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACN62-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Chicago St.WAC26.3826.3838.2838.28-6.18-6.18
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.835.8339.2939.29-1.25-1.25
New Mexico St.WAC4.374.3775.0075.002.192.19
IdahoWAC4.344.3445.1645.16-0.42-0.42
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.284.2820.6920.69-2.51-2.51
Utah ValleyWAC4.274.2759.2659.260.790.79
UMKCWAC4.244.2437.0437.04-1.10-1.10
SeattleWAC4.214.2142.3142.31-0.65-0.65
Grand CanyonWAC4.154.1541.6741.67-0.69-0.69
BradleyMVC1.911.9135.4835.48-0.56-0.56
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.831.8332.1432.14-0.66-0.66
IllinoisB101.831.8356.2556.250.230.23
Jacksonville St.OVC1.811.8128.5728.57-0.77-0.77
Southern IllinoisMVC1.801.8041.9441.94-0.29-0.29
CreightonBE1.801.8078.1278.121.011.01
Illinois St.MVC1.801.8048.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE1.771.7734.3834.38-0.55-0.55
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.751.7529.6329.63-0.71-0.71
Alabama St.SWAC1.751.7555.5655.560.190.19
IndianaB101.741.7451.6151.610.060.06
CincinnatiAmer1.671.6781.2581.251.041.04
Green BayHorz1.671.6776.9276.920.900.90
Tennessee TechOVC0.340.3448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.290.2946.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.270.2767.7467.740.100.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2020.6920.69-0.12-0.12
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.2048.1548.15-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.190.1913.7913.79-0.14-0.14
UTSACUSA0.190.1922.2222.22-0.10-0.10
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.180.18100.00100.000.180.18
Wright St.Horz0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.170.1759.2659.260.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
XavierBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
WisconsinB100.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Washington St.P120.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.130.1367.6567.650.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.120.1210.7110.71-0.09-0.09
UICHorz0.120.1213.7913.79-0.08-0.08
BelmontOVC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
OaklandHorz0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MontanaBSky0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PortlandWCC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00