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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:250.0
Current RPI:250
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:270
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:283
Expected OOC SOS:331



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17250.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Ohio (231.0)MACA73-47L0%0.0
11-19Furman (293.0)SCA84-65L0%0.0
11-22Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA63-65W100%0.0
11-24Hampton (251.0)MEACH82-74W100%0.0
12-4Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA56-67W100%0.0
12-7Hofstra (174.0)CAAH51-68L0%0.0
12-15Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA70-57L0%0.0
12-18Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA75-65L0%0.0
12-21Alabama (85.0)SECA60-59L0%0.0
1-3Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA73-74W100%0.0
1-5Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH64-80L0%0.0
1-8South Alabama (275.0)SBA104-95L0%0.0
1-10Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA64-46L0%0.0
1-15Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH50-59L0%0.0
1-17Georgia St. (53.0)SBH74-69W100%0.0
1-19Troy (313.0)SBA64-69W100%0.0
1-22South Alabama (275.0)SBH64-53W100%0.0
1-24Texas St. (236.0)SBA58-64W100%0.0
1-29Georgia Southern (113.0)SBA83-46L0%0.0
2-5Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBA81-66L0%0.0
2-7Troy (313.0)SBH65-62W100%0.0
2-12Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBH74-79L0%0.0
2-14Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBA69-58L0%0.0
2-19UT Arlington (184.0)SBA81-68L0%0.0
2-21Georgia St. (53.0)SBA87-43L0%0.0
2-26Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH58-77L0%0.0
2-28Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH66-43W100%0.0
3-5Texas St. (236.0)SBH67-64W100%0.0
3-7UT Arlington (184.0)SBH72-60W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SB26.4326.4344.0944.09-3.12-3.12
Georgia St.SB4.644.6473.3373.332.172.17
South AlabamaSB4.634.6331.0331.03-1.76-1.76
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.634.6353.5753.570.330.33
Louisiana MonroeSB4.634.6359.2659.260.860.86
Texas St.SB4.624.6242.3142.31-0.71-0.71
Georgia SouthernSB4.624.6265.3865.381.421.42
UT ArlingtonSB4.574.5750.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB4.574.5735.7135.71-1.31-1.31
Arkansas St.SB4.514.5134.6234.62-1.39-1.39
TroySB4.504.5032.0032.00-1.62-1.62
Georgia TechACC1.781.7836.6736.67-0.47-0.47
HofstraCAA1.751.7559.3859.380.330.33
CharlotteCUSA1.751.7541.9441.94-0.28-0.28
Virginia TechACC1.751.7534.3834.38-0.55-0.55
JacksonvilleASun1.751.7525.0025.00-0.88-0.88
AlabamaSEC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
FurmanSC1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
HamptonMEAC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC1.721.7231.0331.03-0.65-0.65
Southern MissCUSA0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
Miami FLACC0.220.2263.6463.640.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.186.906.90-0.16-0.16
Green BayHorz0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1565.5265.520.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
FloridaSEC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.120.1242.3142.31-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TulsaAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
The CitadelSC0.110.1129.6329.63-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
HowardMEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1127.2727.27-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.070.07
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01