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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:335.0
Current RPI:335
Expected SOS:302
Current SOS:302
Current Record:5-21
Expected Record:5-21
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:136



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-21335.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA98-77L0%0.0
11-12Campbell (316.0)BSthH66-73L0%0.0
11-16Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA77-49L0%0.0
11-22North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA76-70L0%0.0
11-29Georgia (74.0)SECA71-53L0%0.0
12-8Charlotte (151.0)CUSAH59-77L0%0.0
12-15Winthrop (168.0)BSthA80-72L0%0.0
12-18Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA74-69L0%0.0
1-2Duquesne (187.0)A10A79-55L0%0.0
1-6Elon (162.0)SCA75-66L0%0.0
1-9UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH60-66L0%0.0
1-11Davidson (126.0)SCA78-66L0%0.0
1-16Chattanooga (243.0)SCH70-80L0%0.0
1-18Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH81-68W100%0.0
1-23The Citadel (345.0)SCA67-80W100%0.0
1-30UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA66-61L0%0.0
2-1Elon (162.0)SCH76-83L0%0.0
2-6The Citadel (345.0)SCH54-45W100%0.0
2-8Western Carolina (221.0)SCA84-75L0%0.0
2-13Samford (313.0)SCH74-68W100%0.0
2-15Wofford (153.0)SCH58-64L0%0.0
2-20Western Carolina (221.0)SCH61-74L0%0.0
2-22Furman (339.0)SCA68-53L0%0.0
2-27Samford (313.0)SCA57-63W100%0.0
3-1Chattanooga (243.0)SCA63-44L0%0.0
3-7Samford (313.0)SCN70-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SC26.3526.3519.8319.83-15.90-15.90
SamfordSC6.556.5533.3333.33-2.18-2.18
Western CarolinaSC4.864.8648.2848.28-0.17-0.17
UNC GreensboroSC4.724.7233.3333.33-1.57-1.57
ElonSC4.714.7151.8551.850.170.17
ChattanoogaSC4.694.6948.1548.15-0.17-0.17
The CitadelSC4.664.6614.8114.81-3.28-3.28
WoffordSC2.992.9957.1457.140.430.43
Georgia SouthernSC2.982.9840.0040.00-0.60-0.60
DavidsonSC2.962.9660.0060.000.590.59
FurmanSC2.832.8323.0823.08-1.52-1.52
PresbyterianBSth2.322.3210.3410.34-1.84-1.84
CampbellBSth2.142.1429.6329.63-0.87-0.87
GeorgiaSEC2.122.1258.0658.060.340.34
WinthropBSth2.092.0955.1755.170.220.22
North Carolina St.ACC2.082.0860.6160.610.440.44
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.052.0583.3383.331.361.36
CharlotteCUSA2.022.0253.3353.330.130.13
CincinnatiAmer2.022.0281.2581.251.261.26
DuquesneA101.921.9239.2939.29-0.41-0.41
Gardner WebbBSth0.330.3350.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.300.3060.0060.000.060.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.270.2755.5655.560.030.03
LibertyBSth0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
Charleston SouthernBSth0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.260.2660.0060.000.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Wake ForestACC0.220.2251.5251.520.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
DukeACC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
North CarolinaACC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
LongwoodBSth0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
NebraskaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
IUPUISum0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1034.6234.62-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1093.1093.100.080.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
NavyPat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MarylandACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
CaliforniaP120.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
UC DavisBW0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00