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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:266.2
Current RPI:246
Expected SOS:252
Current SOS:175
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12167.50.02%
15-13189.30.15%
14-14206.91.44%
13-15223.06.25%
12-16240.015.41%
11-17256.924.67%
10-18274.025.46%
9-19290.317.23%
8-20305.27.55%
7-21317.81.58%
6-22328.50.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Iowa St. (107.1)B12N98-104L0%0.0
11-17Western Michigan (163.8)MACN86-67L0%0.0
11-19UTEP (283.4)CUSAN76-72W100%0.0
11-22James Madison (278.3)CAAA105-99L0%0.0
11-25Davidson (81.5)A10H78-62W100%0.0
11-28VCU (127.7)A10A85-72L0%0.0
12-2South Florida (296.6)AmerH84-61W100%0.0
12-4Western Carolina (222.1)SCA72-71L0%0.0
12-9Akron (213.5)MACA94-89L0%0.0
12-16Ohio St. (21.1)B10A80-67L0%0.0
12-20Hampton (287.4)MEACA86-53L0%0.0
12-29Texas St. (216.4)SBH66-62W100%0.0
12-31UT Arlington (120.9)SBH80-76W100%0.0
1-4Louisiana Lafayette (62.2)SBA78-45L0%0.0
1-6Louisiana Monroe (292.5)SBA73-79W100%0.0
1-11Georgia St. (136.3)SBH58-71L0%0.0
1-13Georgia Southern (119.1)SBH59-60L0%0.0
1-20South Alabama (235.0)SBA83-77L0%0.0
1-25Little Rock (293.5)SBH0-068%5.2
1-27Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH0-064%3.9
2-1UT Arlington (120.9)SBA0-012%-13.1
2-3Texas St. (216.4)SBA0-033%-5.0
2-10Coastal Carolina (245.2)SBA0-028%-6.4
2-15South Alabama (235.0)SBH0-058%2.1
2-17Troy (207.3)SBH0-043%-1.9
2-22Arkansas St. (291.0)SBA0-041%-2.5
2-24Little Rock (293.5)SBA0-046%-1.2
3-3Coastal Carolina (245.2)SBH0-050%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SB26.3926.2333.3337.29-8.80-6.67
Coastal CarolinaSB0.644.4127.7836.40-0.28-1.20
UT ArlingtonSB3.104.3263.1663.310.821.15
Arkansas St.SB0.544.3227.7829.90-0.24-1.74
Little RockSB0.474.2922.2223.93-0.26-2.24
Texas St.SB3.024.2961.1151.440.670.12
South AlabamaSB3.074.2647.0643.99-0.18-0.51
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.012.6682.3580.711.951.63
Georgia SouthernSB2.932.6564.7164.130.860.75
Georgia St.SB2.932.6564.7164.290.860.76
Louisiana MonroeSB3.002.6528.5730.20-1.28-1.05
TroySB0.372.5335.2942.24-0.11-0.39
HamptonMEAC2.781.8514.2939.48-1.98-0.39
AkronMAC2.941.8543.7542.94-0.37-0.26
South FloridaAmer2.781.8536.8426.99-0.73-0.85
DavidsonA102.861.8562.5063.650.710.50
Western CarolinaSC2.851.8535.2933.06-0.84-0.63
VCUA102.781.8257.8958.350.440.30
Western MichiganMAC2.861.8250.0050.530.000.02
Iowa St.B122.781.7958.8245.400.49-0.16
James MadisonCAA2.781.7921.0525.76-1.61-0.87
Ohio St.B102.781.7980.0075.741.670.92
UTEPCUSA2.781.7935.2935.32-0.82-0.52
UTSACUSA0.220.2241.1839.65-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.300.2111.1117.68-0.23-0.14
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1846.6746.97-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.300.1831.5834.36-0.11-0.06
LamarSlnd0.080.1650.0054.890.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.240.1661.1151.910.050.01
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1641.1838.47-0.03-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.240.1545.0045.03-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.1566.6765.640.030.05
George WashingtonA100.240.1545.0043.48-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.150.1547.0641.41-0.01-0.03
FIUCUSA0.290.1535.2935.54-0.09-0.04
DaytonA100.230.1547.3750.94-0.010.00
TulaneAmer0.150.1563.1657.890.040.02
George MasonA100.230.1545.0041.30-0.02-0.03
IndianaB100.070.1557.8950.710.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1318.7536.820.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.250.1327.7834.50-0.11-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.1368.7563.690.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1277.7879.150.090.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.1252.9452.650.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.1261.1158.700.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.160.1272.2274.930.070.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1245.0049.290.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.240.1222.2228.59-0.13-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1220.0023.34-0.10-0.07
ToledoMAC0.160.1266.6767.700.050.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1241.1839.16-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.300.1264.7159.990.090.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1237.5037.68-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.150.1210.5327.29-0.12-0.06
La SalleA100.150.1240.0042.69-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.150.1250.0046.810.00-0.01
VMISC0.230.1225.0024.15-0.11-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.150.1244.4446.65-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.150.1278.9571.810.090.05
CharlotteCUSA0.220.1223.5325.64-0.12-0.06
The CitadelSC0.210.1218.7518.36-0.13-0.08
MemphisAmer0.000.1265.0058.540.000.02
FordhamA100.150.1231.5829.06-0.06-0.05
IowaB100.220.1247.6244.02-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.160.1255.0053.320.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0942.1140.46-0.01-0.02
TCUB120.170.0973.6865.600.080.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0930.0036.50-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.240.0994.7486.140.220.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0958.8249.760.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0965.0057.880.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0962.5058.690.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0944.4444.92-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.0952.6355.290.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.0983.3384.240.160.06
New OrleansSlnd0.150.0937.5045.24-0.04-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0947.0648.410.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0926.3231.50-0.04-0.03
SMUAmer0.160.0970.0070.570.060.04
ClemsonACC0.220.0984.2173.240.150.04
North CarolinaACC0.220.0980.0075.060.130.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.0983.3381.430.000.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0957.1460.410.010.02
Saint LouisA100.160.0947.3746.92-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0966.6768.730.030.03
StetsonASun0.150.0933.3336.93-0.05-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0978.9577.380.040.05
TowsonCAA0.080.0963.1665.970.020.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0922.2227.33-0.05-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0978.9576.750.080.05
Northern IowaMVC0.150.0944.4450.08-0.020.00
ElonCAA0.140.0952.6351.080.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.210.0963.1663.220.050.02
TexasB120.150.0963.1657.630.040.01
MichiganB100.140.0976.1970.740.070.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.079.5217.900.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.190.0765.0065.320.060.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0727.7831.710.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.0752.9455.030.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.060.009.09-0.09-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.170.0670.0068.300.070.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0064.110.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0675.0077.850.000.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.0636.8444.11-0.04-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.0615.7920.91-0.12-0.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.990.030.02
UABCUSA0.000.0661.1164.130.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.460.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0629.4139.63-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.0611.1115.29-0.13-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.070.0637.5031.76-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.0610.5316.75-0.12-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.0629.4133.20-0.06-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0661.9063.140.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0645.0041.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0652.6347.520.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0670.0071.230.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.065.8819.35-0.06-0.04
MaineAE0.080.0610.5314.83-0.06-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0668.4263.650.030.02
MercerSC0.080.0644.4454.86-0.010.01
MississippiSEC0.150.0652.6345.860.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0672.2258.920.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0625.0028.010.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0630.0032.520.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.070.0645.0044.47-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0643.7549.130.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.080.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0663.1657.540.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0636.8432.76-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.067.6923.28-0.06-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0668.7567.600.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.150.0678.9576.990.090.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.0645.0047.07-0.02-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0689.4785.550.120.04
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
MinnesotaB100.140.0663.6457.630.040.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0668.4258.980.030.01
BaylorB120.080.0661.1156.090.020.01
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.240.040.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0623.5328.21-0.04-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0070.700.030.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.260.010.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.490.010.01
KansasB120.080.0684.2179.750.050.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0673.6862.720.040.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0627.7829.10-0.03-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.050.010.00
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.910.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0668.4254.090.030.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0684.2178.170.000.03
RadfordBSth0.140.0657.8958.850.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.140.0642.1132.47-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9572.990.040.03
Penn St.B100.000.0661.9055.760.000.01
RutgersB100.070.0655.0046.690.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.860.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0370.0068.220.040.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.037.1414.82-0.08-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0380.0078.850.060.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.630.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.740.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
XavierBE0.090.0385.7180.080.070.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.200.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4446.000.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.1146.000.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.6867.970.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0325.0031.45-0.04-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.030.003.07-0.08-0.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0321.0525.97-0.05-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0338.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.080.0352.6351.690.000.00
High PointBSth0.080.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
IdahoBSky0.080.0364.7166.850.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.037.6920.09-0.07-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0350.0054.190.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.710.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.030.0010.67-0.08-0.02
MontanaBSky0.080.0370.5973.150.030.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0385.7182.090.060.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0350.0051.380.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0361.9065.160.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0321.0539.48-0.04-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.220.000.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0352.6358.590.000.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.280.040.01
Washington St.P120.080.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0368.4270.810.000.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0361.1156.830.020.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0312.5025.45-0.06-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.560.030.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0366.6763.200.030.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.210.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.930.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0342.8635.24-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.020.020.01
ButlerBE0.070.0366.6763.070.020.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.550.030.01
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.250.030.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0385.0083.200.050.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6759.820.000.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.370.000.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.890.030.01
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.300.00-0.00