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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:259.0
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:150
Current SOS:150
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:258
Expected OOC SOS:67



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22259.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH76-68W100%0.0
11-17Furman (167.0)SCH70-79L0%0.0
11-20Hampton (155.0)MEACA82-61L0%0.0
11-22Tulane (227.0)AmerA76-48L0%0.0
11-26Liberty (264.0)BSthN62-73W100%0.0
11-27Mercer (194.0)SCN71-70L0%0.0
11-29Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndN84-94L0%0.0
12-6Hofstra (54.0)CAAN86-80L0%0.0
12-15Texas (27.0)B12A67-55L0%0.0
12-19Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH66-82L0%0.0
12-21North Carolina (5.0)ACCA94-70L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA72-56L0%0.0
1-2Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA79-58L0%0.0
1-7UT Arlington (105.0)SBH67-71L0%0.0
1-9Texas St. (238.0)SBH76-56W100%0.0
1-14Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA81-55L0%0.0
1-16Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA72-86W100%0.0
1-21Georgia St. (180.0)SBH76-67W100%0.0
1-25Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH100-101L0%0.0
1-28Troy (293.0)SBA71-75W100%0.0
1-30South Alabama (240.0)SBA73-60L0%0.0
2-4Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH76-87L0%0.0
2-6Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH90-91L0%0.0
2-11Texas St. (238.0)SBA69-68L0%0.0
2-13UT Arlington (105.0)SBA91-60L0%0.0
2-18South Alabama (240.0)SBH71-75L0%0.0
2-20Troy (293.0)SBH78-74W100%0.0
2-25Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA88-63L0%0.0
2-27Georgia St. (180.0)SBA83-70L0%0.0
3-3Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH69-63W100%0.0
3-5Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH80-73W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SB26.3726.3727.0127.01-12.13-12.13
UT ArlingtonSB4.344.3466.6766.671.451.45
Louisiana MonroeSB4.344.3455.1755.170.450.45
South AlabamaSB4.324.3234.4834.48-1.34-1.34
Arkansas Little RockSB4.314.3189.6689.663.423.42
Texas St.SB4.314.3144.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.304.3048.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Georgia SouthernSB4.254.2537.0437.04-1.10-1.10
Georgia St.SB4.254.2550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB4.204.2033.3333.33-1.40-1.40
TroySB4.204.2025.9325.93-2.02-2.02
TulaneAmer1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
FurmanSC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
TexasB121.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
HamptonMEAC1.661.6665.5265.520.520.52
LibertyBSth1.661.6635.7135.71-0.48-0.48
North CarolinaACC1.661.6681.8281.821.061.06
CharlotteCUSA1.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.641.6481.4881.481.031.03
HofstraCAA1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
JacksonvilleASun1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
SamfordSC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.210.2125.9325.93-0.10-0.10
The CitadelSC0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1976.6776.670.100.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
UABCUSA0.170.1780.6580.650.100.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1426.9226.92-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.130.1324.2424.24-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
WoffordSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
StetsonASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1120.8320.83-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1162.8662.860.030.03
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
VMISC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01