Appalachian St.

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	258.0
Current RPI:	258
Expected SOS:	235
Current SOS:	235
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	189
Expected OOC SOS:	88

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	258.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	A	81-68	L	0%
11-19	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	A	63-68	W	100%
11-22	East Carolina (164.0)	CUSA	N	47-67	L	0%
12-1	NC Greensboro (231.0)	SC	H	78-64	W	100%
12-3	Georgia Southern (203.0)	SC	A	73-62	L	0%
12-6	Minnesota (89.0)	B10	A	70-56	L	0%
12-10	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	H	48-65	L	0%
12-17	North Carolina (3.0)	ACC	A	97-82	L	0%
12-22	Campbell (206.0)	BSth	H	77-74	W	100%
12-30	Miami FL (60.0)	ACC	A	84-54	L	0%
1-5	Samford (269.0)	SC	A	63-68	W	100%
1-7	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	A	65-63	L	0%
1-12	Furman (235.0)	SC	H	56-50	W	100%
1-14	Davidson (66.0)	SC	H	79-83	L	0%
1-19	Wofford (178.0)	SC	A	73-61	L	0%
1-21	Western Carolina (220.0)	SC	H	84-72	W	100%
1-26	NC Greensboro (231.0)	SC	A	77-73	L	0%
1-28	Elon (228.0)	SC	H	81-66	W	100%
2-2	Samford (269.0)	SC	H	52-53	L	0%
2-4	College of Charleston (122.0)	SC	H	62-74	L	0%
2-6	Elon (228.0)	SC	A	82-59	L	0%
2-9	Furman (235.0)	SC	A	69-79	W	100%
2-11	Wofford (178.0)	SC	H	64-66	L	0%
2-15	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	H	79-70	W	100%
2-18	Winthrop (272.0)	BSth	H	76-64	W	100%
2-22	The Citadel (325.0)	SC	A	62-51	L	0%
2-25	Western Carolina (220.0)	SC	A	83-75	L	0%
3-2	College of Charleston (122.0)	SC	N	81-93	W	100%
3-3	NC Greensboro (231.0)	SC	N	65-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Appalachian St.	SC	26.46	26.46	37.60	37.60	-6.56	-6.56
NC Greensboro	SC	6.10	6.10	35.71	35.71	-1.74	-1.74
Western Carolina	SC	4.55	4.55	45.16	45.16	-0.44	-0.44
Elon	SC	4.39	4.39	44.44	44.44	-0.49	-0.49
Samford	SC	4.34	4.34	30.77	30.77	-1.67	-1.67
College of Charleston	SC	4.32	4.32	62.07	62.07	1.04	1.04
Chattanooga	SC	4.31	4.31	25.93	25.93	-2.08	-2.08
Furman	SC	4.31	4.31	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Wofford	SC	4.28	4.28	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
East Tennessee St.	ASun	3.48	3.48	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	2.80	2.80	76.67	76.67	1.49	1.49
Georgia Southern	SC	2.74	2.74	44.44	44.44	-0.30	-0.30
The Citadel	SC	2.70	2.70	11.11	11.11	-2.10	-2.10
Miami FL	ACC	1.89	1.89	60.00	60.00	0.38	0.38
Campbell	BSth	1.84	1.84	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
North Carolina	ACC	1.84	1.84	84.85	84.85	1.28	1.28
East Carolina	CUSA	1.84	1.84	38.46	38.46	-0.42	-0.42
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.81	1.81	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
Winthrop	BSth	1.81	1.81	34.48	34.48	-0.56	-0.56
Minnesota	B10	1.72	1.72	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Jacksonville	ASun	0.32	0.32	26.67	26.67	-0.15	-0.15
Mercer	ASun	0.30	0.30	65.62	65.62	0.09	0.09
Tennessee	SEC	0.29	0.29	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.29	0.29	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.27	0.27	64.71	64.71	0.08	0.08
Presbyterian	BSth	0.25	0.25	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.25	0.25	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.23	0.23	57.69	57.69	0.04	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.23	0.23	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.20	0.20	6.67	6.67	-0.18	-0.18
Massachusetts	A10	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.20	0.20	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Maryland	ACC	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.19	0.19	81.82	81.82	0.12	0.12
Belmont	ASun	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.15	94.12	94.12	0.13	0.13
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	21.88	21.88	-0.06	-0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	96.43	96.43	0.08	0.08
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	3.12	3.12	-0.08	-0.08
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01