live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:265.0
Current RPI:265
Expected SOS:321
Current SOS:321
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16265.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13High Point (249.0)BSthH64-86L0%0.0
11-16Campbell (289.0)BSthA101-82L0%0.0
11-20East Carolina (100.0)CUSAA82-72L0%0.0
11-23Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCA87-76L0%0.0
11-28Duquesne (229.0)A10H72-73L0%0.0
12-1Missouri (36.0)SECA72-56L0%0.0
12-8Western Carolina (243.0)SCA70-64L0%0.0
12-16Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumA71-81W100%0.0
12-19South Carolina (222.0)SECA74-69L0%0.0
12-22Presbyterian (340.0)BSthH78-70W100%0.0
1-8Wofford (250.0)SCA49-50W100%0.0
1-12Elon (174.0)SCH80-70W100%0.0
1-14NC Greensboro (327.0)SCH83-70W100%0.0
1-17Chattanooga (292.0)SCA91-88L0%0.0
1-19Samford (291.0)SCA72-68L0%0.0
1-24Georgia Southern (266.0)SCH64-62W100%0.0
1-26Davidson (61.0)SCH56-79L0%0.0
1-30College of Charleston (133.0)SCA72-59L0%0.0
2-2Western Carolina (243.0)SCH74-65W100%0.0
2-7Georgia Southern (266.0)SCA86-91W100%0.0
2-9Davidson (61.0)SCA87-52L0%0.0
2-11Furman (343.0)SCH72-66W100%0.0
2-14Elon (174.0)SCA61-58L0%0.0
2-17NC Greensboro (327.0)SCA68-76W100%0.0
2-20The Citadel (330.0)SCH77-80L0%0.0
2-28Samford (291.0)SCH70-67W100%0.0
3-2Chattanooga (292.0)SCH86-60W100%0.0
3-9Furman (343.0)SCN74-60W100%0.0
3-10Davidson (61.0)SCN65-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SC26.3926.3946.3446.34-1.93-1.93
DavidsonSC5.995.9975.8675.863.103.10
NC GreensboroSC4.474.4725.9325.93-2.15-2.15
ElonSC4.384.3864.2964.291.251.25
Western CarolinaSC4.384.3837.9337.93-1.06-1.06
FurmanSC4.384.3818.5218.52-2.76-2.76
Georgia SouthernSC4.384.3841.3841.38-0.75-0.75
ChattanoogaSC4.334.3335.7135.71-1.24-1.24
SamfordSC4.314.3131.0331.03-1.63-1.63
College of CharlestonSC2.832.8371.8871.881.241.24
The CitadelSC2.712.7118.5218.52-1.70-1.70
WoffordSC2.692.6940.0040.00-0.54-0.54
PresbyterianBSth1.931.9317.8617.86-1.24-1.24
High PointBSth1.931.9351.8551.850.070.07
CampbellBSth1.881.8834.4834.48-0.58-0.58
South CarolinaSEC1.861.8641.9441.94-0.30-0.30
Virginia TechACC1.841.8438.7138.71-0.42-0.42
East CarolinaCUSA1.811.8152.0052.000.070.07
MissouriSEC1.781.7868.7568.750.670.67
DuquesneA101.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
Missouri Kansas CitySum1.721.7223.3323.33-0.92-0.92
Gardner WebbBSth0.270.2760.0060.000.050.05
Virginia Military InstBSth0.260.2639.2939.29-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.240.2437.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.200.2042.3142.31-0.03-0.03
CharlotteA100.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
NC WilmingtonCAA0.200.2031.0331.03-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.190.1984.3884.380.130.13
RadfordBSth0.180.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
WinthropBSth0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1452.9452.940.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
AuburnSEC0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
RichmondA100.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
West VirginiaB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
MemphisCUSA0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
UABCUSA0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1110.0010.00-0.09-0.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.110.1193.7593.750.100.10
MarylandACC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
KentuckySEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Southern MethodistCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Georgia St.CAA0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
ButlerA100.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
WisconsinB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
BradleyMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
TroySB0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
XavierA100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01