Appalachian St.

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	265.0
Current RPI:	265
Expected SOS:	321
Current SOS:	321
Current Record:	13-16
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-8
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	329
Expected OOC SOS:	330

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-16	265.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	64-86	L	0%
11-16	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	101-82	L	0%
11-20	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	A	82-72	L	0%
11-23	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	A	87-76	L	0%
11-28	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	H	72-73	L	0%
12-1	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	A	72-56	L	0%
12-8	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	70-64	L	0%
12-16	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	71-81	W	100%
12-19	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	A	74-69	L	0%
12-22	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	78-70	W	100%
1-8	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	49-50	W	100%
1-12	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	80-70	W	100%
1-14	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	83-70	W	100%
1-17	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	91-88	L	0%
1-19	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	72-68	L	0%
1-24	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	64-62	W	100%
1-26	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	56-79	L	0%
1-30	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	72-59	L	0%
2-2	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	H	74-65	W	100%
2-7	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	86-91	W	100%
2-9	Davidson (61.0)	SC	A	87-52	L	0%
2-11	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	72-66	W	100%
2-14	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	61-58	L	0%
2-17	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	68-76	W	100%
2-20	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	77-80	L	0%
2-28	Samford (291.0)	SC	H	70-67	W	100%
3-2	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	86-60	W	100%
3-9	Furman (343.0)	SC	N	74-60	W	100%
3-10	Davidson (61.0)	SC	N	65-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Appalachian St.	SC	26.39	26.39	46.34	46.34	-1.93	-1.93
Davidson	SC	5.99	5.99	75.86	75.86	3.10	3.10
NC Greensboro	SC	4.47	4.47	25.93	25.93	-2.15	-2.15
Elon	SC	4.38	4.38	64.29	64.29	1.25	1.25
Western Carolina	SC	4.38	4.38	37.93	37.93	-1.06	-1.06
Furman	SC	4.38	4.38	18.52	18.52	-2.76	-2.76
Georgia Southern	SC	4.38	4.38	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
Chattanooga	SC	4.33	4.33	35.71	35.71	-1.24	-1.24
Samford	SC	4.31	4.31	31.03	31.03	-1.63	-1.63
College of Charleston	SC	2.83	2.83	71.88	71.88	1.24	1.24
The Citadel	SC	2.71	2.71	18.52	18.52	-1.70	-1.70
Wofford	SC	2.69	2.69	40.00	40.00	-0.54	-0.54
Presbyterian	BSth	1.93	1.93	17.86	17.86	-1.24	-1.24
High Point	BSth	1.93	1.93	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Campbell	BSth	1.88	1.88	34.48	34.48	-0.58	-0.58
South Carolina	SEC	1.86	1.86	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.84	1.84	38.71	38.71	-0.42	-0.42
East Carolina	CUSA	1.81	1.81	52.00	52.00	0.07	0.07
Missouri	SEC	1.78	1.78	68.75	68.75	0.67	0.67
Duquesne	A10	1.72	1.72	24.14	24.14	-0.89	-0.89
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.72	1.72	23.33	23.33	-0.92	-0.92
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.27	0.27	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.26	0.26	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.24	0.24	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.20	0.20	42.31	42.31	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.20	0.20	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Duke	ACC	0.19	0.19	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
Radford	BSth	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.18	0.18	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.15	0.15	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Winthrop	BSth	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.14	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.00	10.00	-0.09	-0.09
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	93.75	93.75	0.10	0.10
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.09	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01