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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:238.2
Current RPI:207
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:178
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-979.50.02%
17-1090.80.05%
16-11112.80.16%
15-12126.00.88%
14-13147.42.51%
13-14170.75.01%
12-15192.011.00%
11-16214.215.74%
10-17235.418.50%
9-18255.517.41%
8-19273.014.60%
7-20288.88.48%
6-21303.53.81%
5-22314.91.47%
4-23322.00.31%
3-24335.00.01%
2-25331.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Davidson (48.3)A10A86-74L0%0.0
11-15Tennessee (165.2)SECA103-94L0%0.0
11-23Hartford (335.7)AEA61-70W100%0.0
11-26Duke (8.6)ACCA93-58L0%0.0
11-28Charlotte (177.2)CUSAA80-72L0%0.0
12-3Western Carolina (291.4)SCH0-084%11.7
12-15North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-011%-14.7
12-17James Madison (268.0)CAAH0-063%4.0
12-21Hampton (332.8)MEACH0-081%10.5
12-31Texas St. (251.4)SBA0-039%-3.2
1-2UT Arlington (72.7)SBA0-014%-12.8
1-7Little Rock (161.3)SBH0-043%-2.0
1-9Arkansas St. (68.6)SBH0-030%-6.2
1-14Coastal Carolina (213.3)SBA0-033%-5.3
1-21Georgia Southern (167.0)SBA0-030%-6.2
1-23Georgia St. (75.2)SBA0-013%-13.5
1-28UT Arlington (72.7)SBH0-029%-6.6
1-30Texas St. (251.4)SBH0-060%3.0
2-4Arkansas St. (68.6)SBA0-015%-12.4
2-6Little Rock (161.3)SBA0-025%-8.2
2-11Georgia St. (75.2)SBH0-027%-7.3
2-13Georgia Southern (167.0)SBH0-050%-0.1
2-18South Alabama (126.4)SBA0-023%-8.9
2-20Troy (265.2)SBA0-048%-0.5
2-25Louisiana Monroe (242.9)SBH0-064%4.2
2-27Louisiana Lafayette (110.0)SBH0-036%-4.3
3-4Coastal Carolina (213.3)SBH0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SB29.1726.3136.8436.56-7.68-7.07
Coastal CarolinaSB0.004.6028.5738.14-0.00-1.09
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.5050.0044.330.00-0.51
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.4757.1463.960.001.25
Arkansas St.SB0.004.4785.7167.760.001.59
Little RockSB0.004.4760.0057.300.000.65
Georgia St.SB0.004.4760.0066.450.001.47
Texas St.SB0.004.4750.0042.760.00-0.65
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.8566.6761.250.000.64
Louisiana MonroeSB0.002.8120.0032.47-0.00-0.99
South AlabamaSB0.002.8183.3360.580.000.60
TroySB0.002.8133.3331.53-0.00-1.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.9571.4349.290.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.831.920.0027.84-0.83-0.85
DavidsonA1010.831.9180.0067.766.500.68
CharlotteCUSA10.831.9160.0049.282.17-0.03
HartfordAE10.001.8814.2923.30-7.14-1.01
DukeACC10.001.8885.7177.977.141.05
HamptonMEAC0.001.850.0034.76-0.00-0.56
TennesseeSEC10.001.850.0032.21-10.00-0.66
Western CarolinaSC0.001.8516.6719.05-0.00-1.15
ChattanoogaSC1.250.2566.6769.810.420.10
MinnesotaB100.000.2285.7165.670.000.07
Wake ForestACC0.000.2271.4352.370.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1950.0071.330.000.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1914.2929.15-0.00-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1962.5056.500.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1885.7180.010.000.11
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0018.22-0.00-0.10
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1666.6765.810.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1683.3355.200.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.620.1640.0030.80-0.12-0.06
MercerSC0.830.1650.0053.050.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1687.5075.320.000.08
AlabamaSEC0.000.1666.6756.020.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1571.4365.740.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.130.0024.19-0.00-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1385.7173.010.000.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1366.6775.370.000.07
TulsaAmer0.000.1360.0039.200.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1357.1448.600.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.1316.6733.69-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0020.01-0.00-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1371.4343.020.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1357.1440.590.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.1357.1443.680.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.130.0033.58-0.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1357.1467.020.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.620.1340.0055.44-0.120.01
ElonCAA0.830.1283.3358.030.560.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1266.6739.720.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1020.0034.39-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.1028.5728.46-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0023.46-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.1060.0070.500.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0013.30-0.00-0.07
HawaiiBW0.000.1050.0050.940.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.1083.3359.600.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1083.3358.080.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1085.7169.010.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1050.0043.490.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1050.0035.230.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.1057.1455.810.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1066.6770.740.000.04
TexasB120.000.1050.0036.240.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1050.0064.840.000.03
VCUA100.000.1085.7178.150.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0983.3362.840.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3380.700.000.06
RiderMAAC0.620.0950.0047.990.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0916.6733.82-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.620.0971.4370.330.270.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0971.4346.010.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.830.0966.6753.460.280.01
DrexelCAA0.620.0942.8636.82-0.09-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0055.340.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0027.250.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0985.7162.410.000.02
MaineAE0.000.0916.6725.61-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.070.0038.35-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.77-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.830.0775.0047.510.42-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0716.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0742.8646.78-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0742.8650.32-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0716.6732.62-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0771.4374.450.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.07100.0069.770.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0714.2926.81-0.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0725.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0771.4355.750.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0742.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0785.7155.890.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
MissouriSEC0.830.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.02
KansasB120.620.0685.7176.170.450.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.830.0333.3338.20-0.28-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.830.0357.1436.050.12-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0383.3350.740.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
OregonP121.250.0371.4366.730.540.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB101.250.0375.0073.840.620.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.620.0340.0037.65-0.12-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.620.0350.0056.260.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.620.0383.3357.990.420.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
MaristMAAC0.620.0342.8635.68-0.09-0.01
Michigan St.B100.620.0350.0061.590.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0328.5743.62-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.620.0316.6727.03-0.42-0.01
Penn St.B100.620.0362.5043.960.16-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.620.0383.3344.770.42-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01