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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:301.0
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:166
Current SOS:166
Current Record:7-21
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-6
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-21301.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Davidson (93.0)A10A86-74L0%0.0
11-15Tennessee (82.0)SECA103-94L0%0.0
11-23Hartford (327.0)AEA61-70W100%0.0
11-26Duke (6.0)ACCA93-58L0%0.0
11-28Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA80-72L0%0.0
12-3Western Carolina (271.0)SCH53-58L0%0.0
12-15North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA97-64L0%0.0
12-17James Madison (255.0)CAAH73-61W100%0.0
12-21Hampton (283.0)MEACH88-67W100%0.0
12-31Texas St. (179.0)SBA67-58L0%0.0
1-2UT Arlington (45.0)SBA84-69L0%0.0
1-7Little Rock (243.0)SBH68-76L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH70-57W100%0.0
1-14Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA85-73L0%0.0
1-21Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA92-88L0%0.0
1-23Georgia St. (104.0)SBA83-72L0%0.0
1-28UT Arlington (45.0)SBH67-83L0%0.0
1-30Texas St. (179.0)SBH55-68L0%0.0
2-4Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA79-78L0%0.0
2-6Little Rock (243.0)SBA69-62L0%0.0
2-11Georgia St. (104.0)SBH77-72W100%0.0
2-13Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH83-78W100%0.0
2-18South Alabama (231.0)SBA87-74L0%0.0
2-20Troy (147.0)SBA76-66L0%0.0
2-25Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH64-75L0%0.0
2-27Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH62-77L0%0.0
3-4Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH77-73W100%0.0
3-8Troy (147.0)SBN84-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SB26.2726.2721.9321.93-14.75-14.75
TroySB4.634.6356.2556.250.580.58
Coastal CarolinaSB4.504.5044.8344.83-0.47-0.47
Texas St.SB4.464.4655.1755.170.460.46
UT ArlingtonSB4.434.4372.4172.411.991.99
Georgia St.SB4.404.4060.7160.710.940.94
Georgia SouthernSB4.404.4053.5753.570.310.31
Arkansas St.SB4.354.3562.0762.071.051.05
Little RockSB4.344.3439.2939.29-0.93-0.93
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.832.8360.0060.000.570.57
Louisiana MonroeSB2.802.8020.0020.00-1.68-1.68
South AlabamaSB2.772.7737.9337.93-0.67-0.67
North Carolina St.ACC1.871.8745.1645.16-0.18-0.18
James MadisonCAA1.851.8529.0329.03-0.77-0.77
DavidsonA101.841.8451.6151.610.060.06
CharlotteCUSA1.841.8439.2939.29-0.39-0.39
DukeACC1.811.8176.4776.470.960.96
HartfordAE1.811.8129.0329.03-0.76-0.76
HamptonMEAC1.791.7944.4444.44-0.20-0.20
TennesseeSEC1.791.7946.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Western CarolinaSC1.791.7920.6920.69-1.05-1.05
ChattanoogaSC0.230.2358.6258.620.040.04
MinnesotaB100.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
Wake ForestACC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.190.1978.7978.790.110.11
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1876.6776.670.090.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.150.1521.4321.43-0.08-0.08
MercerSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
FloridaSEC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Miami FLACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1344.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.07-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
ElonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
DrexelCAA0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
RiceCUSA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0970.0070.000.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
LehighPat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00