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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:253.8
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:134
Current Record:6-16
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:76



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17186.30.07%
13-18200.80.96%
12-19215.45.25%
11-20229.514.82%
10-21245.626.39%
9-22261.328.29%
8-23275.817.65%
7-24288.05.66%
6-25300.00.90%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville (250.3)ASunH76-68W100%0.0
11-17Furman (161.5)SCH70-79L0%0.0
11-20Hampton (196.1)MEACA82-61L0%0.0
11-22Tulane (239.5)AmerA76-48L0%0.0
11-26Liberty (278.4)BSthN62-73W100%0.0
11-27Mercer (122.8)SCN71-70L0%0.0
11-29Stephen F. Austin (97.1)SlndN84-94L0%0.0
12-6Hofstra (71.0)CAAN86-80L0%0.0
12-15Texas (27.9)B12A67-55L0%0.0
12-19Charlotte (231.6)CUSAH66-82L0%0.0
12-21North Carolina (9.3)ACCA94-70L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Monroe (182.5)SBA72-56L0%0.0
1-2Louisiana Lafayette (104.2)SBA79-58L0%0.0
1-7UT Arlington (112.0)SBH67-71L0%0.0
1-9Texas St. (268.9)SBH76-56W100%0.0
1-14Arkansas Little Rock (54.5)SBA81-55L0%0.0
1-16Arkansas St. (228.3)SBA72-86W100%0.0
1-21Georgia St. (137.7)SBH76-67W100%0.0
1-25Georgia Southern (256.4)SBH100-101L0%0.0
1-28Troy (305.3)SBA71-75W100%0.0
1-30South Alabama (251.0)SBA73-60L0%0.0
2-4Louisiana Lafayette (104.2)SBH76-87L0%0.0
2-6Louisiana Monroe (182.5)SBH0-041%-2.5
2-11Texas St. (268.9)SBA0-035%-4.2
2-13UT Arlington (112.0)SBA0-08%-15.6
2-18South Alabama (251.0)SBH0-063%3.6
2-20Troy (305.3)SBH0-066%4.4
2-25Georgia Southern (256.4)SBA0-038%-3.3
2-27Georgia St. (137.7)SBA0-020%-9.3
3-3Arkansas Little Rock (54.5)SBH0-016%-10.6
3-5Arkansas St. (228.3)SBH0-057%1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SB26.3626.4427.4529.52-11.89-10.83
Louisiana MonroeSB3.044.2836.8442.43-0.80-0.65
UT ArlingtonSB2.914.2863.1666.780.771.44
Arkansas Little RockSB2.924.2589.4785.692.313.04
Arkansas St.SB2.924.2547.3743.32-0.15-0.57
South AlabamaSB2.924.2531.5832.43-1.08-1.49
TroySB2.924.2521.0524.25-1.69-2.19
Georgia SouthernSB2.924.2533.3333.95-0.97-1.36
Georgia St.SB2.934.2464.7159.760.860.83
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.134.2452.9458.870.300.75
Texas St.SB2.864.2443.7540.89-0.36-0.77
TulaneAmer2.501.7330.4330.16-0.98-0.68
FurmanSC2.431.7252.3852.120.120.07
MercerSC2.371.6970.0069.540.950.66
TexasB122.381.6966.6760.490.790.35
HamptonMEAC2.331.6757.8959.830.370.33
LibertyBSth2.371.6733.3334.12-0.79-0.53
North CarolinaACC2.371.6685.7180.031.691.00
CharlotteCUSA2.321.6433.3340.26-0.77-0.32
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.321.6466.6773.710.770.78
HofstraCAA2.271.6166.6764.200.760.46
JacksonvilleASun2.271.6150.0049.700.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.380.2540.9143.36-0.07-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.280.2233.3333.65-0.09-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.240.2016.6724.28-0.16-0.10
The CitadelSC0.220.1935.0031.39-0.07-0.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.240.1873.6870.400.110.07
MississippiSEC0.180.1763.6456.050.050.02
UABCUSA0.240.1781.8278.320.150.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.210.1730.0033.57-0.08-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1785.7184.560.120.12
North TexasCUSA0.110.1630.0029.47-0.05-0.07
RiceCUSA0.110.1625.0028.19-0.06-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.260.1518.7533.16-0.16-0.05
WinthropBSth0.220.1565.0063.360.070.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1431.5833.50-0.06-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1470.0068.920.070.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.230.1475.0072.210.110.06
UTEPCUSA0.120.1450.0050.040.000.00
BaylorB120.180.1476.1967.340.090.05
South FloridaAmer0.210.1420.8320.11-0.12-0.08
WoffordSC0.160.1438.1043.38-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1345.4541.98-0.01-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.1218.7526.10-0.04-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.230.1235.0036.61-0.07-0.03
StetsonASun0.110.1225.0029.75-0.06-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.110.1223.8125.04-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.240.1229.4138.46-0.10-0.03
IUPUISum0.120.1241.6740.25-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.160.1170.0069.350.060.04
Miami FLACC0.170.1180.9575.610.110.06
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1154.5561.940.010.03
UTSACUSA0.120.1114.2913.98-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1157.1457.920.020.02
IdahoBSky0.110.1157.1457.940.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1125.0029.91-0.05-0.04
VMISC0.160.1116.6718.98-0.10-0.07
DukeACC0.060.1172.7369.900.030.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1172.7368.010.050.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1152.1749.340.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.110.1161.9054.010.030.01
TulsaAmer0.150.1163.6459.930.040.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1181.8278.720.070.06
ConnecticutAmer0.200.1172.7372.460.090.05
MemphisAmer0.100.1159.0958.570.020.02
LamarSlnd0.120.0933.3332.69-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.0922.7324.28-0.06-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.094.7614.00-0.10-0.06
UCLAP120.170.0956.5253.330.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.095.2610.18-0.10-0.07
AuburnSEC0.110.0942.8637.22-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0942.8647.26-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0926.3227.35-0.05-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0963.6465.480.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.160.0868.1863.240.060.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0843.4845.72-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.100.0890.4885.540.080.06
ElonCAA0.150.0854.5553.030.010.00
Ohio St.B100.110.0858.3354.130.020.01
DavidsonA100.160.0857.8955.420.020.01
Kansas St.B120.100.0859.0955.560.020.01
SyracuseACC0.100.0866.6762.710.030.02
WashingtonP120.150.0868.1862.170.060.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0655.5650.840.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0653.3355.190.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0647.3750.50-0.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0610.0015.31-0.05-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.120.0657.1452.310.020.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0628.5734.73-0.05-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0610.0014.87-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0621.0523.70-0.06-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0645.0049.60-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0640.0042.58-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0621.7427.63-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0621.0529.17-0.03-0.02
NJITASun0.050.0652.1754.520.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0638.1047.48-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0668.1869.350.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.120.0659.0958.090.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.0647.6252.95-0.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0615.0015.65-0.05-0.04
Washington St.P120.070.0638.1033.46-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0654.5555.190.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.110.0668.7573.150.040.03
NavyPat0.110.0665.2265.220.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0625.0029.29-0.05-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0657.8961.470.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0619.0522.38-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0652.3853.610.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.120.0652.1754.150.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0626.0930.34-0.05-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0634.7837.55-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0669.5770.030.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0661.9059.920.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0652.1748.790.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3634.96-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.100.0614.2918.59-0.07-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0650.0056.530.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0669.5768.670.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0666.6761.680.020.01
LSUSEC0.060.0663.6459.440.020.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0626.0927.82-0.03-0.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0636.3630.98-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0661.9060.410.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0647.8348.71-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0681.8278.220.040.03
Penn St.B100.060.0647.8343.65-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.4370.810.020.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0672.7368.660.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0618.1822.84-0.04-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0645.4547.97-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0663.6457.320.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0675.0071.270.030.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0622.7323.65-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.100.0530.0030.38-0.04-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0568.1863.710.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0523.8128.31-0.05-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.058.709.78-0.05-0.04
FordhamA100.060.0557.8954.300.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0516.6720.72-0.04-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.0554.5552.770.010.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0572.7368.840.020.02
KansasB120.050.0580.9577.010.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0547.8350.56-0.000.00
MichiganB100.100.0572.7367.970.050.02
OklahomaB120.000.0590.4884.910.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0550.0045.740.00-0.00
TCUB120.100.0545.4537.84-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0561.9058.400.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0555.0047.190.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0547.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0531.8226.63-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0333.3333.55-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0352.1750.250.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0310.5325.36-0.06-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0347.6257.24-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.060.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0372.7366.980.030.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0315.7922.52-0.04-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0368.1867.800.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0381.8281.000.040.02
IPFWSum0.050.0373.9170.210.030.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0326.0925.57-0.03-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0319.0521.34-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0327.2732.87-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0326.3236.92-0.03-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.8957.330.010.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0334.7841.60-0.02-0.00
VCUA100.050.0377.2776.770.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0326.3233.83-0.03-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0333.3334.18-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0054.850.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0385.7181.210.040.02
George MasonA100.050.0336.3635.32-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0354.5555.310.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0321.0520.90-0.03-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0341.6746.85-0.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0331.8235.17-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0365.2266.710.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0385.7176.020.040.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.090.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.0082.450.030.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0335.2944.50-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0373.9173.090.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0363.6462.330.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0322.7324.84-0.03-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5553.540.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.5253.440.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0381.8277.490.030.01
MarylandB100.050.0386.9681.750.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0342.8641.75-0.01-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.490.020.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0380.0070.310.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0363.1666.160.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0352.6347.730.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0381.8281.000.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0359.0962.730.010.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0381.8276.020.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.1747.260.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0345.4542.13-0.00-0.00