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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Appalachian St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:300.9
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:221
Current SOS:275
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14178.00.03%
14-15185.90.15%
13-16207.20.64%
12-17227.81.74%
11-18248.34.69%
10-19266.78.81%
9-20283.215.32%
8-21298.618.79%
7-22312.418.86%
6-23323.015.71%
5-24331.610.06%
4-25337.74.08%
3-26342.51.02%
2-27346.30.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Appalachian St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Ohio (114.5)MACA73-47L0%0.0
11-19Furman (314.2)SCA84-65L0%0.0
11-22Virginia Tech (228.2)ACCA63-65W100%0.0
11-24Hampton (275.1)MEACH82-74W100%0.0
12-4Jacksonville (332.3)ASunA0-044%-1.8
12-7Hofstra (112.2)CAAH0-019%-10.7
12-15Georgia Tech (91.5)ACCA0-04%-21.4
12-18Charlotte (79.8)CUSAA0-04%-20.8
12-21Alabama (67.9)SECA0-02%-23.6
1-3Arkansas St. (246.7)SBA0-020%-10.2
1-5Louisiana Lafayette (245.2)SBH0-040%-3.1
1-8South Alabama (236.8)SBA0-021%-9.8
1-10Arkansas Little Rock (193.4)SBA0-016%-12.0
1-15Arkansas St. (246.7)SBH0-040%-3.0
1-17Georgia St. (102.3)SBH0-018%-11.1
1-19Troy (243.4)SBA0-019%-10.4
1-22South Alabama (236.8)SBH0-041%-2.7
1-24Texas St. (199.5)SBA0-018%-11.1
1-29Georgia Southern (195.9)SBA0-016%-12.0
2-5Louisiana Lafayette (245.2)SBA0-020%-10.3
2-7Troy (243.4)SBH0-039%-3.2
2-12Arkansas Little Rock (193.4)SBH0-034%-4.9
2-14Louisiana Monroe (116.3)SBA0-09%-16.4
2-19UT Arlington (145.7)SBA0-012%-14.4
2-21Georgia St. (102.3)SBA0-06%-18.2
2-26Georgia Southern (195.9)SBH0-034%-4.8
2-28Louisiana Monroe (116.3)SBH0-022%-9.2
3-5Texas St. (199.5)SBH0-037%-4.0
3-7UT Arlington (145.7)SBH0-027%-7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Appalachian St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Appalachian St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Appalachian St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Appalachian St.SB33.5426.5362.5027.258.39-12.07
Georgia St.SB0.004.5933.3361.42-0.001.05
South AlabamaSB0.004.590.0037.11-0.00-1.18
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.5975.0054.600.000.42
Arkansas Little RockSB0.004.5866.6749.080.00-0.08
Arkansas St.SB0.004.580.0038.54-0.00-1.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.580.0037.45-0.00-1.15
TroySB0.004.580.0042.66-0.00-0.67
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.5750.0048.490.00-0.14
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.5750.0060.970.001.00
Texas St.SB0.004.5766.6746.370.00-0.33
Georgia TechACC0.001.78100.0050.270.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.001.7575.0064.600.000.51
HofstraCAA0.001.7575.0066.320.000.57
Virginia TechACC12.501.75100.0034.9712.50-0.53
JacksonvilleASun0.001.750.0022.43-0.00-0.97
AlabamaSEC0.001.7275.0056.790.000.23
FurmanSC12.501.720.0021.05-12.50-1.00
HamptonMEAC12.501.7225.0046.28-6.25-0.13
OhioMAC12.501.720.0053.92-12.500.14
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2450.0054.250.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.20100.0078.600.000.12
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.190.0021.40-0.00-0.11
Green BayHorz0.000.1850.0068.360.000.06
SamfordSC0.000.1640.0039.62-0.00-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.1566.6751.260.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1533.3354.64-0.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.130.0053.97-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.130.0033.27-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1366.6768.660.000.05
TexasB120.000.13100.0079.170.000.07
Alcorn St.SWAC1.250.130.0031.92-1.25-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.120.13100.0074.043.120.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.1375.0066.130.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1375.0058.430.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1275.0056.780.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.12100.0047.400.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1250.0032.620.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1266.6759.480.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1225.0040.65-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.1266.6753.640.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1266.6751.200.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0038.25-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0087.980.000.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.12100.0060.870.000.03
SyracuseACC1.250.1275.0065.950.620.04
IUPUISum0.000.1250.0034.020.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA2.080.1240.0053.80-0.420.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1180.0074.980.000.06
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0065.880.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0034.67-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.1050.0065.370.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0950.0043.570.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3342.50-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0950.0037.390.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0055.660.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0026.64-0.00-0.04
VMISC0.000.0933.3337.04-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0980.0072.030.000.04
DukeACC0.000.09100.0085.500.000.06
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0044.98-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0051.710.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0070.800.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.0980.0072.950.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0960.0045.520.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0050.840.000.00
NJITind0.000.0920.0027.91-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0925.0042.98-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0074.230.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0041.06-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0966.6747.180.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0950.0045.420.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3347.25-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0940.0050.01-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0067.390.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0980.0059.570.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0833.3341.47-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0066.25-0.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.070.0034.13-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0760.0056.230.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0040.20-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0044.61-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.070.0065.66-0.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0047.530.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0069.590.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0033.26-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0058.710.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.170.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.88-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6757.950.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.790.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0045.64-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0633.3352.75-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0666.6732.480.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0035.54-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.20-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0029.60-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.0675.0062.270.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0032.210.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.12-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.960.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0059.10-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0043.380.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0640.0043.71-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6760.760.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0025.79-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.060.0043.29-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.390.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3339.78-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth2.080.0633.3335.09-0.69-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0039.30-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.49-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6774.460.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0043.12-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.53-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0081.370.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.570.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3322.95-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.26-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0650.0054.870.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0050.880.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0024.93-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0021.27-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6756.000.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0666.6766.030.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.43-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3367.83-0.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0053.38-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0036.18-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.080.0616.6730.01-1.39-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.05-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.66-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0022.57-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0064.710.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0029.78-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0680.0043.930.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0020.52-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0035.62-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.460.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0666.6738.720.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0075.310.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3327.72-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3343.21-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6746.440.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0029.26-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.31-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.990.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.410.000.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0057.580.000.00
UC DavisBW2.080.03100.0043.482.08-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.220.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.970.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0033.20-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0035.180.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0041.460.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.590.000.01
IowaB101.250.0360.0064.030.250.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.290.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.16-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum1.250.0350.0043.250.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0041.580.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6745.370.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.700.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.110.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0080.240.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0071.240.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.70-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3350.07-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0070.420.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0031.34-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0366.6765.570.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.740.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0054.280.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0045.75-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3365.20-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.270.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0042.28-0.00-0.00