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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:342.0
Current RPI:342
Expected SOS:337
Current SOS:337
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-13
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:317
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23342.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA79-66L0%0.0
11-14TCU (67.0)B12A98-62L0%0.0
11-16Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA87-56L0%0.0
11-22Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA79-72L0%0.0
11-25Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyN57-71L0%0.0
11-26Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWN76-67W100%0.0
11-29Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH69-72L0%0.0
12-4Troy (147.0)SBA83-65L0%0.0
12-12San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA73-41L0%0.0
12-14Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCA68-46L0%0.0
12-22Ball St. (169.0)MACA73-48L0%0.0
1-2Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH73-69W100%0.0
1-4Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH60-63L0%0.0
1-7Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA71-63L0%0.0
1-9Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACA73-70L0%0.0
1-14Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA55-57W100%0.0
1-21Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH71-78L0%0.0
1-23Southern (320.0)SWACH79-65W100%0.0
1-28Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA70-68L0%0.0
1-30Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA72-52L0%0.0
2-4Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH77-65W100%0.0
2-6Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH71-66W100%0.0
2-11Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH97-89W100%0.0
2-18Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA75-67L0%0.0
2-20Southern (320.0)SWACA79-73L0%0.0
2-25Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH73-86L0%0.0
2-27Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH58-77L0%0.0
3-2Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA82-69L0%0.0
3-4Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA65-59L0%0.0
3-7Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA87-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama St.SWAC26.4026.4022.8822.88-14.32-14.32
Texas SouthernSWAC6.036.0364.5264.521.751.75
Alcorn St.SWAC4.464.4648.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Grambling St.SWAC4.414.4142.8642.86-0.63-0.63
SouthernSWAC4.374.3742.8642.86-0.62-0.62
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.354.3531.0331.03-1.65-1.65
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.324.3220.0020.00-2.59-2.59
Jackson St.SWAC4.314.3137.0437.04-1.12-1.12
Alabama A&MSWAC4.284.287.417.41-3.65-3.65
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.264.2617.8617.86-2.74-2.74
Louisiana TechCUSA1.861.8666.6766.670.620.62
Jacksonville St.OVC1.831.8354.8454.840.180.18
Tennessee St.OVC1.771.7751.8551.850.070.07
TCUB121.771.7753.1253.120.110.11
TroySB1.721.7257.5857.580.260.26
Northern ArizonaBSky1.721.7223.3323.33-0.92-0.92
Western KentuckyCUSA1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Kennesaw St.ASun1.701.7037.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Cal St. FullertonBW1.691.6953.5753.570.120.12
Ball St.MAC1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
San Diego St.MWC1.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
UABCUSA0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.280.2833.3333.33-0.09-0.09
BaylorB120.240.2477.4277.420.130.13
Southern MissCUSA0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
UNLVMWC0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.160.1677.7877.780.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
UTSACUSA0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
UC DavisBW0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
WashingtonP120.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Iowa St.B120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Texas St.SB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Murray St.OVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
OhioMAC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
SeattleWAC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01