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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:258.0
Current RPI:258
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:351
Current Record:17-10
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-5
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:279



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10258.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Arkansas (19.0)SECA97-79L0%0.0
11-26North Dakota (310.0)BSkyN75-68L0%0.0
11-28Texas Pan American (334.0)WACN79-91W100%0.0
11-29Utah (20.0)P12A93-62L0%0.0
12-6Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH80-55W100%0.0
12-13Western Illinois (328.0)SumA78-68L0%0.0
12-21Evansville (118.0)MVCA81-63L0%0.0
1-3Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH71-50W100%0.0
1-5Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH72-52W100%0.0
1-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA71-74W100%0.0
1-12Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA76-88W100%0.0
1-17Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA56-59W100%0.0
1-24Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH84-60W100%0.0
1-26Southern (223.0)SWACH63-59W100%0.0
1-31Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA80-65L0%0.0
2-2Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACA71-73W100%0.0
2-7Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH73-55W100%0.0
2-9Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH65-57W100%0.0
2-14Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH71-80L0%0.0
2-21Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA67-71W100%0.0
2-23Southern (223.0)SWACA54-56W100%0.0
2-28Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH49-58L0%0.0
3-2Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH65-67L0%0.0
3-5Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA46-78W100%0.0
3-7Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA42-62W100%0.0
3-11Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACN93-81W100%0.0
3-13Southern (223.0)SWACN66-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama St.SWAC26.5926.5965.4165.418.208.20
SouthernSWAC6.706.7048.2848.28-0.23-0.23
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.586.5820.6920.69-3.86-3.86
Texas SouthernSWAC5.005.0062.5062.501.251.25
Alcorn St.SWAC4.904.9017.8617.86-3.15-3.15
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.904.9043.3343.33-0.65-0.65
Alabama A&MSWAC4.894.8926.9226.92-2.26-2.26
Jackson St.SWAC4.844.8436.6736.67-1.29-1.29
Grambling St.SWAC4.824.820.000.00-4.82-4.82
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.784.7840.0040.00-0.96-0.96
Jacksonville St.OVC1.921.9235.7135.71-0.55-0.55
UtahP121.921.9273.3373.330.900.90
North DakotaBSky1.911.9118.5218.52-1.21-1.21
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.911.9125.9325.93-0.92-0.92
ArkansasSEC1.851.8575.7675.760.950.95
EvansvilleMVC1.851.8558.6258.620.320.32
Western IllinoisSum1.851.8520.0020.00-1.11-1.11
TulaneAmer0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
HawaiiBW0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Iowa St.B120.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
BaylorB120.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.190.1983.3383.330.130.13
Oregon St.P120.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
Air ForceMWC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
DrakeMVC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
OhioMAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1475.8675.860.070.07
IndianaB100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
MemphisAmer0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
StanfordP120.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Texas TechB120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
IUPUISum0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0990.9190.910.080.08
BelmontOVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
AkronMAC0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
LamarSlnd0.090.0942.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
DenverSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
MontanaBSky0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.040.0432.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01