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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:222.7
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:222
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:16-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-5
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:195
Expected OOC SOS:146



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-3112.00.02%
21-4122.80.35%
20-5138.61.89%
19-6155.95.70%
18-7175.211.41%
17-8195.317.49%
16-9217.120.18%
15-10240.117.37%
14-11262.513.17%
13-12283.57.36%
12-13301.33.26%
11-14317.81.34%
10-15330.60.38%
9-16340.60.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Arkansas (23.6)SECA97-79L0%0.0
11-26North Dakota (179.2)BSkyN75-68L0%0.0
11-28Texas Pan American (270.5)WACN0-070%6.2
11-29Utah (28.1)P12A0-04%-21.2
12-6Jacksonville St. (286.9)OVCH0-080%10.2
12-13Western Illinois (313.7)SumA0-060%3.1
12-21Evansville (74.1)MVCA0-014%-13.0
1-3Grambling St. (342.8)SWACH0-093%17.9
1-5Jackson St. (285.7)SWACH0-078%9.1
1-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.3)SWACA0-069%5.9
1-12Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACA0-085%12.6
1-17Alabama A&M (333.4)SWACA0-070%6.2
1-24Alcorn St. (312.3)SWACH0-084%12.0
1-26Southern (302.0)SWACH0-082%10.8
1-31Texas Southern (240.5)SWACA0-050%-0.1
2-2Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACA0-056%1.8
2-7Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.3)SWACH0-086%13.1
2-9Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACH0-095%19.7
2-14Alabama A&M (333.4)SWACH0-087%13.4
2-21Alcorn St. (312.3)SWACA0-066%4.8
2-23Southern (302.0)SWACA0-062%3.6
2-28Texas Southern (240.5)SWACH0-072%7.1
3-2Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACH0-077%8.9
3-5Grambling St. (342.8)SWACA0-081%10.7
3-7Jackson St. (285.7)SWACA0-056%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama St.SWAC32.2926.510.0067.16-32.299.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.005.140.0033.04-0.00-1.74
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.005.1316.6732.65-0.00-1.78
Jackson St.SWAC0.005.1320.0044.08-0.00-0.61
Texas SouthernSWAC0.005.130.0041.36-0.00-0.89
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.005.130.0015.86-0.00-3.50
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.005.120.0041.11-0.00-0.91
SouthernSWAC0.005.120.0036.03-0.00-1.43
Alcorn St.SWAC0.005.110.0034.60-0.00-1.57
Grambling St.SWAC0.005.110.0021.67-0.00-2.89
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.0825.0031.61-0.00-0.76
UtahP120.002.0775.0072.900.000.95
North DakotaBSky25.002.070.0049.44-25.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.002.0750.0032.550.00-0.72
ArkansasSEC25.002.00100.0079.0125.001.16
EvansvilleMVC0.002.0075.0068.400.000.74
Western IllinoisSum0.002.0025.0026.19-0.00-0.95
Murray St.OVC0.000.2233.3367.57-0.000.08
TCUB120.000.22100.0058.380.000.04
BaylorB120.000.21100.0075.130.000.10
TulaneAmer0.000.2066.6739.850.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.000.1850.0042.750.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1833.3345.53-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.1766.6752.280.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.1775.0061.130.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1775.0039.180.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.1725.0023.91-0.00-0.09
HoustonAmer0.000.1766.6760.700.000.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1550.0050.720.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum4.170.1533.3354.85-1.390.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1533.3360.46-0.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.15100.0057.930.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1425.0043.27-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1420.0050.32-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1420.0038.45-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1450.0070.920.000.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1471.4356.020.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1480.0072.400.000.06
MississippiSEC0.000.1475.0053.040.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.140.0016.54-0.00-0.09
Texas TechB120.000.1475.0045.180.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1350.0042.050.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1380.0056.380.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0045.140.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.130.0067.79-0.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1380.0074.350.000.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1366.6746.480.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1250.0047.410.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.1140.0030.22-0.00-0.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1160.0039.990.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1133.3346.51-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.1175.0071.300.000.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1180.0070.550.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1150.0065.020.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1150.0055.020.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1175.0050.750.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.110.0051.90-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC4.170.10100.0077.874.170.06
AkronMAC0.000.1060.0066.680.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.1080.0075.550.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.10100.0083.180.000.07
LamarSlnd0.000.1025.0036.27-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1080.0074.820.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.100.0025.17-0.00-0.05
StanfordP120.000.1080.0071.340.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1060.0037.710.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1060.0062.400.000.02
SMUAmer3.120.1050.0065.590.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0850.0060.380.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0866.6762.480.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0840.0038.51-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.080.0038.79-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.08100.0059.990.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0875.0069.240.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0875.0044.850.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0883.3369.110.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0883.3368.400.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0035.980.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0833.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0725.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0018.96-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0740.0046.34-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0716.6745.35-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0766.6765.220.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0733.3329.78-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0045.33-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.07100.0079.050.000.04
TroySB0.000.070.0044.27-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0720.0042.43-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0069.210.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0733.3330.52-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6750.170.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0733.3351.33-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0020.51-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0060.400.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.07100.0057.180.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0725.0028.63-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0750.0045.170.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0068.20-0.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0766.6748.060.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0069.490.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0076.220.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0760.0053.400.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0750.0031.400.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0775.0060.510.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0057.070.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0064.460.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0760.0040.420.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0733.3348.21-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0733.3358.80-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0740.0047.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0025.08-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0037.530.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0766.6758.390.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0725.0022.65-0.00-0.04
USCP120.000.0750.0029.750.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0750.0047.680.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0783.3338.760.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3352.29-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.370.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.610.000.05
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0056.960.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.830.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0650.0046.120.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0052.42-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.39-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.85-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0064.840.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0052.250.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0666.6751.730.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.070.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0620.0037.96-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0056.110.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0420.0031.46-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0433.3332.18-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0420.0035.95-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0475.0055.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0061.500.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.04100.0053.990.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0475.0066.230.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0475.0046.860.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.040.0023.57-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0425.0052.78-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0320.0039.02-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.630.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0028.02-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0035.88-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0023.13-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.500.000.02
KansasB120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.390.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0045.460.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.71-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.290.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.390.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0059.430.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.19-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.42-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.200.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0023.83-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0325.0053.73-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0048.990.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0380.0058.550.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC3.120.0325.0039.20-1.56-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.890.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.440.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.260.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.53-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0050.53-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
Wake ForestACC3.120.0366.6751.441.040.00