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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:324.9
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:326
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-12
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:332
Expected OOC SOS:272



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12223.00.03%
16-13241.10.31%
15-14264.90.92%
14-15279.52.76%
13-16294.96.99%
12-17308.111.83%
11-18319.817.25%
10-19329.019.64%
9-20336.317.01%
8-21341.512.77%
7-22345.16.29%
6-23347.43.05%
5-24348.70.95%
4-25350.00.17%
3-26351.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAA79-66L0%0.0
11-14TCU (53.5)B12A98-62L0%0.0
11-16Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAA87-56L0%0.0
11-22Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunA79-72L0%0.0
11-25Northern Arizona (330.5)BSkyN57-71L0%0.0
11-26Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWN76-67W100%0.0
11-29Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCH69-72L0%0.0
12-4Troy (265.2)SBA0-022%-9.3
12-12San Diego St. (47.5)MWCA0-01%-27.1
12-14Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCA0-05%-19.9
12-22Ball St. (212.5)MACA0-010%-15.5
1-2Grambling St. (333.4)SWACH0-067%5.4
1-4Jackson St. (300.4)SWACH0-048%-0.5
1-7Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACA0-050%0.0
1-9Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACA0-047%-0.8
1-14Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA0-070%6.5
1-21Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACH0-062%3.8
1-23Southern (238.0)SWACH0-034%-4.9
1-28Texas Southern (107.3)SWACA0-07%-17.9
1-30Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACA0-041%-2.8
2-4Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH0-070%6.2
2-6Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACH0-067%5.4
2-11Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-085%12.6
2-18Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACA0-042%-2.4
2-20Southern (238.0)SWACA0-018%-11.1
2-25Texas Southern (107.3)SWACH0-016%-11.7
2-27Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACH0-061%3.4
3-2Grambling St. (333.4)SWACA0-047%-0.8
3-4Jackson St. (300.4)SWACA0-029%-6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama St.SWAC28.9526.4017.2437.79-18.96-6.45
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.4457.1465.550.001.38
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.4416.6731.45-0.00-1.65
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.430.0012.65-0.00-3.31
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.4328.5733.53-0.00-1.46
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.420.0031.11-0.00-1.67
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.410.0023.55-0.00-2.33
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.410.0023.12-0.00-2.37
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.400.0041.09-0.00-0.78
SouthernSWAC0.004.4025.0055.61-0.000.49
Louisiana TechCUSA7.141.9425.0066.80-3.570.65
Jacksonville St.OVC9.351.9150.0045.440.00-0.17
Tennessee St.OVC0.511.8483.3369.400.340.72
TCUB127.651.81100.0058.087.650.29
Northern ArizonaBSky7.651.790.0025.67-7.65-0.87
TroySB0.001.7833.3330.59-0.00-0.69
Western KentuckyCUSA7.651.7833.3331.98-2.55-0.64
Kennesaw St.ASun7.141.7616.6727.70-4.76-0.78
Cal St. FullertonBW7.651.7520.0031.18-4.59-0.66
Ball St.MAC0.001.7250.0051.030.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.001.7275.0074.070.000.83
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.3014.2928.66-0.00-0.13
UABCUSA0.000.2957.1461.940.000.07
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2433.3323.33-0.00-0.13
BaylorB120.000.24100.0074.460.000.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2150.0056.260.000.03
UNLVMWC2.210.1871.4349.590.95-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.510.1842.8646.78-0.07-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1550.0056.430.000.02
BelmontOVC0.510.1540.0061.37-0.100.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1550.0050.940.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.1583.3359.600.000.03
WashingtonP122.810.1557.1452.630.400.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.1550.0051.820.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.1560.0057.900.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.1428.5728.46-0.00-0.06
RiceCUSA0.000.1485.7169.010.000.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1383.3361.490.000.03
CaliforniaP120.710.1383.3363.610.480.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.1366.6739.720.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.510.1257.1448.410.07-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1220.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1260.0039.610.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.1271.4358.670.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1250.0043.490.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.1242.8661.90-0.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1220.0032.60-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.510.120.0024.32-0.51-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1275.0054.320.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.1260.0067.410.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0023.26-0.00-0.06
OhioMAC0.000.1280.0068.320.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1285.7173.010.000.05
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0021.30-0.00-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1233.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.1250.0043.310.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1216.6736.45-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.1225.0043.26-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1266.6761.340.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1257.1464.940.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1166.6756.360.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1185.7155.890.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1183.3356.560.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.970.000.04
SeattleWAC0.000.1120.0042.63-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1183.3380.550.000.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1066.6754.420.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1083.3350.740.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0914.2933.07-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0024.19-0.00-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.0928.5727.50-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.510.090.0023.46-0.51-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0950.0071.330.000.04
NebraskaB100.710.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0933.3338.20-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0950.0033.010.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0914.2931.71-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0940.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.600.0925.0040.37-0.30-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.510.0975.0064.960.260.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0985.7168.390.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.060.000.07
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0966.6751.090.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0966.6765.810.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.040.000.07
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0733.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.600.0633.3348.73-0.20-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0640.0037.44-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.560.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.510.0637.5036.24-0.13-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.510.0666.6769.810.170.02
South FloridaAmer0.510.0666.6732.240.17-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.510.0316.6731.91-0.34-0.01
IowaB100.510.0342.8644.33-0.07-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.510.0380.0055.340.310.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.710.030.0034.23-0.71-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.710.03100.0080.780.710.02
TulsaAmer0.510.0360.0039.200.10-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.600.0350.0066.170.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02