Alabama St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	301.5
Current RPI:	310
Expected SOS:	340
Current SOS:	337
Current Record:	6-14
Expected Record:	10-18
Current Conf Record:	5-5
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	5.62%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-9
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	282
Expected OOC SOS:	152

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-14	256.2	0.41%
13-15	272.7	4.16%
12-16	285.7	15.70%
11-17	296.1	27.00%
10-18	306.0	29.57%
9-19	316.3	17.12%
8-20	325.1	5.19%
7-21	333.1	0.79%
6-22	337.0	0.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	A	67-49	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Cincinnati (89.8)	BE	A	65-40	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	H	60-67	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Jacksonville St. (252.5)	OVC	A	78-65	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Evansville (156.6)	MVC	A	62-55	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Florida International (212.8)	SB	A	57-60	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	A	74-48	L	0%	0.0
12-17	St. Louis (32.0)	A10	A	65-35	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Clemson (148.3)	ACC	A	70-45	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	A	80-56	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	A	62-73	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	A	78-81	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	H	60-67	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	H	62-56	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	53-50	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	A	61-60	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	A	68-56	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	57-64	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	66-59	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	A	70-58	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	A	0-0		44%	-1.5
2-11	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	A	0-0		46%	-1.1
2-18	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	0-0		77%	8.0
2-20	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	0-0		61%	3.1
2-25	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	A	0-0		21%	-8.9
2-27	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	A	0-0		37%	-3.5
3-1	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	0-0		91%	14.3
3-3	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	0-0		67%	4.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Alabama St.	SWAC	26.31	26.45	35.71	41.72	-7.52	-4.38
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	3.30	4.69	18.18	24.17	-2.10	-2.42
Texas Southern	SWAC	3.18	4.62	33.33	42.31	-1.06	-0.71
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	3.18	4.62	31.58	37.67	-1.17	-1.14
Southern	SWAC	3.17	4.62	42.11	44.34	-0.50	-0.52
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	5.50	4.59	45.00	55.17	-0.55	0.47
Jackson St.	SWAC	3.12	4.59	20.00	26.19	-1.87	-2.18
Grambling	SWAC	3.11	4.58	15.79	16.58	-2.13	-3.06
Alcorn St.	SWAC	3.10	4.57	11.76	19.82	-2.37	-2.76
Alabama A&M	SWAC	3.10	4.57	18.75	27.11	-1.93	-2.09
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.79	2.00	31.82	36.14	-1.01	-0.55
Cincinnati	BE	2.73	1.94	68.18	64.32	0.99	0.56
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.62	1.91	43.75	48.78	-0.33	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.67	1.91	52.63	52.79	0.14	0.11
Marshall	CUSA	2.67	1.88	57.14	58.28	0.38	0.31
Florida International	SB	2.63	1.88	35.00	38.59	-0.79	-0.43
St. Louis	A10	2.56	1.85	76.19	76.88	1.34	0.99
Clemson	ACC	2.50	1.79	47.62	46.58	-0.12	-0.12
Detroit	Horz	2.50	1.79	45.45	47.21	-0.23	-0.10
Evansville	MVC	2.50	1.79	42.86	41.94	-0.36	-0.29
Tulane	CUSA	0.32	0.27	61.90	58.59	0.08	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.30	0.23	56.52	53.10	0.04	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.30	0.22	43.48	43.31	-0.04	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.20	0.21	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.18	0.18	90.91	83.85	0.15	0.13
Arkansas	SEC	0.23	0.18	69.57	65.15	0.09	0.06
Texas A&M	B12	0.21	0.17	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.20	0.16	27.78	29.58	-0.09	-0.07
North Texas	SB	0.12	0.16	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.17	0.15	41.67	40.61	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.15	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.22	0.15	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.19	0.13	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.13	0.13	85.71	82.18	0.09	0.08
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	72.73	66.81	0.06	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.18	0.13	65.22	65.17	0.05	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.23	0.12	34.78	32.06	-0.07	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.18	0.12	73.91	68.43	0.08	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.12	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	69.57	71.51	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	69.57	68.90	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.17	0.12	86.96	83.16	0.13	0.08
Florida	SEC	0.17	0.12	82.61	77.63	0.11	0.07
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.12	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.17	0.12	68.18	67.91	0.06	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.22	0.12	65.22	62.65	0.07	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.17	0.12	61.90	55.14	0.04	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.10	33.33	33.82	-0.05	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.10	68.18	69.10	0.05	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.14	0.10	18.18	21.13	-0.09	-0.06
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.10	76.19	75.94	0.04	0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.14	0.10	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.21	0.10	22.22	27.62	-0.12	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.10	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.20	0.10	27.78	29.87	-0.09	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.10	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.10	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.10	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.14	0.10	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.10	69.57	64.53	0.05	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.10	31.82	25.98	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.10	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.17	0.10	60.87	59.76	0.04	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.12	0.10	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.17	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.04	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.09	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.09	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.17	0.09	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.17	0.09	30.00	30.06	-0.07	-0.04
Denver	SB	0.06	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.09	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.09	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.09	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.17	0.09	59.09	54.70	0.03	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.09	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.06
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.17	0.09	40.91	39.56	-0.03	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.07	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.12	0.07	83.33	84.76	0.08	0.05
Troy	SB	0.06	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.07	34.78	34.48	-0.04	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.07	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.10	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.00	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.00	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.05	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.06	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.12	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.05	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.07	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.11	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.04	0.03
California	P12	0.06	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.07	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.05	0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.06	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.10	0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.06	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.00	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.03	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.00	0.03	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.00	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.00	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.00	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.04	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.00	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.05	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00