Alabama St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	328.0
Current RPI:	328
Expected SOS:	332
Current SOS:	332
Current Record:	9-22
Expected Record:	9-22
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-11
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	321
Expected OOC SOS:	167

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-22	328.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	97-53	L	0%
11-11	Florida (7.0)	SEC	A	84-35	L	0%
11-13	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	A	85-56	L	0%
11-16	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	H	54-59	L	0%
11-25	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	66-62	L	0%
12-8	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	A	67-54	L	0%
12-10	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	A	81-68	L	0%
12-13	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	74-68	W	100%
12-15	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	80-67	L	0%
12-17	Georgia Tech (149.0)	ACC	A	75-41	L	0%
12-19	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	N	58-66	L	0%
12-20	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	N	70-76	L	0%
1-2	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	70-66	W	100%
1-4	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	69-56	W	100%
1-6	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	A	73-58	L	0%
1-8	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	A	65-69	W	100%
1-12	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	A	64-57	L	0%
1-19	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	67-79	L	0%
1-21	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	49-46	W	100%
1-26	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	A	74-72	L	0%
1-28	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	97-65	L	0%
2-2	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	77-81	L	0%
2-4	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	73-65	W	100%
2-9	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	H	69-62	W	100%
2-16	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	A	58-49	L	0%
2-18	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	A	58-66	W	100%
2-23	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	56-65	L	0%
2-25	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	50-70	L	0%
2-28	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	A	70-65	L	0%
3-2	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	A	62-74	W	100%
3-14	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	N	66-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Alabama St.	SWAC	26.48	26.48	29.77	29.77	-10.72	-10.72
Jackson St.	SWAC	5.76	5.76	34.62	34.62	-1.77	-1.77
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.35	4.35	34.48	34.48	-1.35	-1.35
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.29	4.29	29.63	29.63	-1.75	-1.75
Southern	SWAC	4.26	4.26	66.67	66.67	1.42	1.42
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.24	4.24	30.00	30.00	-1.70	-1.70
Grambling	SWAC	4.20	4.20	0.00	0.00	-4.20	-4.20
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.18	4.18	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.15	4.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.15	4.15	19.23	19.23	-2.55	-2.55
Troy	SB	3.27	3.27	35.48	35.48	-0.95	-0.95
Middle Tennessee	SB	1.84	1.84	84.38	84.38	1.27	1.27
Chicago St.	GWC	1.70	1.70	22.22	22.22	-0.94	-0.94
Texas Pan American	GWC	1.70	1.70	40.74	40.74	-0.31	-0.31
Florida	SEC	1.69	1.69	78.12	78.12	0.95	0.95
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.69	1.69	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Central Florida	CUSA	1.69	1.69	60.71	60.71	0.36	0.36
Evansville	MVC	1.67	1.67	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Detroit	Horz	1.66	1.66	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	1.61	1.61	35.71	35.71	-0.46	-0.46
Houston	CUSA	0.30	0.30	60.00	60.00	0.06	0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.24	0.24	35.71	35.71	-0.07	-0.07
North Texas	SB	0.23	0.23	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.23	0.23	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Florida International	SB	0.22	0.22	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.20	0.20	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.20	0.20	14.81	14.81	-0.14	-0.14
Arkansas St.	SB	0.20	0.20	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.19	0.19	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.18	0.18	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.17	0.17	81.25	81.25	0.10	0.10
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Arkansas	SEC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.12	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01