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Through games of Jan 27, 2015.


Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:214.4
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:348
Current Record:9-5
Expected Record:17-8
Current Conf Record:7-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-4
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:216



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-5151.31.25%
19-6171.48.91%
18-7191.822.28%
17-8211.629.21%
16-9230.722.95%
15-10250.911.15%
14-11271.63.46%
13-12291.10.66%
12-13304.90.10%
11-14318.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Arkansas (35.1)SECA97-79L0%0.0
11-26North Dakota (271.0)BSkyN75-68L0%0.0
11-28Texas Pan American (319.4)WACN79-91W100%0.0
11-29Utah (8.7)P12A93-62L0%0.0
12-6Jacksonville St. (305.9)OVCH80-55W100%0.0
12-13Western Illinois (308.3)SumA78-68L0%0.0
12-21Evansville (77.0)MVCA81-63L0%0.0
1-3Grambling St. (349.3)SWACH71-50W100%0.0
1-5Jackson St. (310.1)SWACH72-52W100%0.0
1-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (304.8)SWACA71-74W100%0.0
1-12Mississippi Valley St. (346.0)SWACA76-88W100%0.0
1-17Alabama A&M (323.0)SWACA56-59W100%0.0
1-24Alcorn St. (342.6)SWACH84-60W100%0.0
1-26Southern (248.7)SWACH63-59W100%0.0
1-31Texas Southern (150.5)SWACA0-034%-4.6
2-2Prairie View A&M (307.4)SWACA0-061%3.1
2-7Arkansas Pine Bluff (304.8)SWACH0-084%10.9
2-9Mississippi Valley St. (346.0)SWACH0-097%21.0
2-14Alabama A&M (323.0)SWACH0-087%12.7
2-21Alcorn St. (342.6)SWACA0-082%10.0
2-23Southern (248.7)SWACA0-046%-1.1
2-28Texas Southern (150.5)SWACH0-058%2.2
3-2Prairie View A&M (307.4)SWACH0-082%10.0
3-5Grambling St. (349.3)SWACA0-094%17.6
3-7Jackson St. (310.1)SWACA0-060%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama St.SWAC26.3826.4870.6972.5810.9111.96
Alabama A&MSWAC4.245.1126.6733.44-1.98-1.69
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.975.1030.0038.48-1.59-1.18
Jackson St.SWAC4.005.1026.3239.05-1.89-1.12
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.965.1010.5316.21-3.13-3.45
Texas SouthernSWAC0.585.1045.0057.24-0.060.74
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.585.0921.0533.57-0.33-1.67
SouthernSWAC4.075.0933.3346.04-1.36-0.40
Alcorn St.SWAC4.075.0917.6522.94-2.63-2.75
Grambling St.SWAC3.975.070.006.97-3.97-4.37
Jacksonville St.OVC3.682.0736.8432.86-0.97-0.71
UtahP123.782.0782.3583.072.451.37
North DakotaBSky3.772.0720.0030.47-2.26-0.81
Texas Pan AmericanWAC3.782.0729.4129.23-1.56-0.86
ArkansasSEC3.572.0078.9571.702.070.87
EvansvilleMVC3.572.0073.6868.811.690.75
Western IllinoisSum3.572.0026.6724.83-1.67-1.01
Murray St.OVC0.390.2178.9580.820.230.13
TCUB120.210.2173.6861.520.100.05
BaylorB120.090.2073.6869.040.040.08
HawaiiBW0.180.2063.1657.240.050.03
TulaneAmer0.270.2060.0052.570.050.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.320.1961.1160.470.070.04
Oregon St.P120.210.1872.2262.220.090.04
Air ForceMWC0.290.1735.2936.81-0.09-0.05
DrakeMVC0.200.1715.7917.73-0.14-0.11
OhioMAC0.270.1738.8935.49-0.06-0.05
Iowa St.B120.270.1778.9569.670.160.07
HoustonAmer0.270.1636.8435.44-0.07-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.180.1635.2933.21-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.210.1538.8940.83-0.05-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.320.1565.0068.180.100.05
WashingtonP120.220.1573.6865.190.100.04
MemphisAmer0.110.1463.1661.500.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.290.1438.8940.48-0.06-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.1442.1147.22-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1450.0061.980.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1426.3236.44-0.09-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.090.1323.5327.88-0.05-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1373.6872.660.090.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.270.1361.1158.480.060.02
MississippiSEC0.180.1363.1663.590.050.04
Texas TechB120.090.1355.0041.240.01-0.02
IndianaB100.090.1375.0068.280.040.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.1344.4434.95-0.01-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1372.2277.820.080.07
TennesseeSEC0.180.1363.1654.270.050.01
Michigan St.B100.090.1365.0063.270.030.03
IUPUISum0.090.1138.1040.92-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.220.1135.2936.05-0.06-0.03
MarquetteBE0.220.1152.6346.610.01-0.01
DaytonA100.200.1184.2179.310.140.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1135.2938.32-0.06-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.1155.0045.710.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.1143.7552.28-0.030.00
MinnesotaB100.210.1060.0056.680.040.01
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1090.0084.550.160.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1070.5975.590.040.05
BelmontOVC0.090.1063.1663.050.020.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.1057.8956.170.030.01
Wichita St.MVC0.190.1089.4787.830.150.08
AkronMAC0.200.1068.4263.800.070.03
LamarSlnd0.100.1037.5037.66-0.02-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1070.5973.670.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1021.0521.30-0.10-0.06
StanfordP120.090.1073.6869.440.040.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1047.3738.51-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1055.0055.350.000.01
SMUAmer0.090.1078.9577.480.050.05
DenverSum0.110.0845.0047.71-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.110.0835.2937.92-0.03-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.110.0847.3749.52-0.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.110.0845.0047.77-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.120.0876.1969.610.060.03
Notre DameACC0.120.0890.4884.130.100.05
PurdueB100.120.0860.0056.870.020.01
IdahoBSky0.220.0837.5043.67-0.06-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.0750.0053.450.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0776.4771.560.060.03
Chicago St.WAC0.100.075.5611.54-0.09-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.110.0747.3742.86-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0747.3750.39-0.010.00
SeattleWAC0.100.0747.0649.60-0.01-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0731.5838.39-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.200.0743.7543.14-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.110.0745.0037.52-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0761.1156.240.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.0740.0038.75-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.100.0765.0063.250.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0725.0025.67-0.05-0.03
MontanaBSky0.110.0750.0053.200.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.110.0716.6719.91-0.07-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.110.0750.0047.490.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.0764.7161.610.030.02
TexasB120.100.0770.0067.480.040.02
TroySB0.100.0731.2531.51-0.04-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.0763.1668.460.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.0790.0087.200.080.05
Arizona St.P120.100.0750.0052.240.000.00
BradleyMVC0.090.0730.0031.26-0.04-0.03
ColoradoP120.100.0752.6351.020.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0752.9459.040.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0757.8959.570.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.180.0745.0043.86-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0757.8956.150.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0733.3334.80-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0735.0043.93-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0740.0037.55-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.075.2610.56-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0742.1145.63-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.100.0755.0052.120.010.00
Washington St.P120.100.0747.3738.18-0.01-0.02
WyomingMWC0.090.0778.9573.820.050.03
USCP120.100.0747.3740.06-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0741.1837.94-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0768.4261.000.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0726.6730.22-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0782.3584.900.000.05
Texas St.SB0.000.0743.7545.82-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0695.0094.580.000.06
HofstraCAA0.090.0666.6770.420.030.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0657.1446.810.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0647.0654.50-0.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0633.3330.12-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0657.1462.500.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0615.0023.72-0.06-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0661.9060.120.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0641.1838.34-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0650.0043.500.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0652.9453.050.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.090.0631.5832.19-0.03-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0625.0022.84-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.090.0661.1156.100.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0652.9447.020.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.090.0647.3749.76-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0635.2932.47-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0673.3372.360.040.03
High PointBSth0.090.0672.2269.040.040.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0680.0079.100.050.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.0415.7918.56-0.08-0.03
PacificWCC0.110.0438.8934.79-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0422.2240.65-0.06-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.110.0458.8262.360.020.01
CreightonBE0.100.0442.8638.54-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.0429.4127.47-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.0473.6866.810.050.01
Saint LouisA100.100.0444.4437.39-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0416.6723.18-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0435.2941.35-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0327.7828.20-0.04-0.02
BYUWCC0.100.0365.0067.630.030.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0310.5319.88-0.07-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0350.0050.960.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0342.1138.00-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0378.9577.890.050.02
KansasB120.100.0384.2176.020.070.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0384.2177.810.060.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0316.6723.20-0.06-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0331.5830.50-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.000.0368.4259.940.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0375.0075.760.050.02
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0340.0041.95-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0316.6725.22-0.06-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0335.2934.97-0.03-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0358.8257.840.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0338.8936.52-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0337.5045.86-0.02-0.00
UNLVMWC0.100.0355.0055.190.010.00
WinthropBSth0.090.0343.7548.06-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0347.3748.02-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.0363.1658.880.020.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0357.8948.620.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0344.4449.83-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0373.6866.290.040.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0371.4374.820.040.02
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0098.460.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0378.9569.070.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0326.3229.09-0.04-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0340.0048.17-0.02-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0373.6865.200.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0352.6352.790.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0345.0040.37-0.01-0.01