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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:293.4
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:326
Current SOS:315
Current Record:6-14
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:151
Expected OOC SOS:83



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14225.90.09%
13-15243.61.99%
12-16262.89.45%
11-17279.823.41%
10-18295.131.68%
9-19308.522.44%
8-20320.69.04%
7-21329.71.66%
6-22337.30.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Virginia Tech (128.4)ACCA82-85W100%0.0
11-16UAB (87.4)CUSAA72-70L0%0.0
11-19Mercer (120.7)SCA70-49L0%0.0
11-27Chattanooga (43.4)SCN95-58L0%0.0
11-28Chicago St. (343.8)WACN64-66W100%0.0
12-1Evansville (74.4)MVCA88-56L0%0.0
12-13Jacksonville St. (304.4)OVCA60-63W100%0.0
12-16Elon (137.9)CAAA91-74L0%0.0
12-20Coastal Carolina (155.6)BSthA68-65L0%0.0
12-22Winthrop (165.0)BSthA92-84L0%0.0
1-2Jackson St. (226.6)SWACA68-61L0%0.0
1-4Grambling St. (344.6)SWACA84-81L0%0.0
1-9Mississippi Valley St. (327.7)SWACH75-74W100%0.0
1-11Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.7)SWACH55-59L0%0.0
1-16Alabama A&M (295.6)SWACH75-80L0%0.0
1-23Southern (173.1)SWACA73-69L0%0.0
1-25Alcorn St. (289.3)SWACA77-72L0%0.0
1-30Texas Southern (193.2)SWACH72-75L0%0.0
2-1Prairie View A&M (344.0)SWACH83-77W100%0.0
2-6Mississippi Valley St. (327.7)SWACA62-73W100%0.0
2-8Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.7)SWACA0-061%3.1
2-13Alabama A&M (295.6)SWACA0-030%-5.6
2-20Southern (173.1)SWACH0-038%-3.4
2-22Alcorn St. (289.3)SWACH0-076%7.6
2-27Prairie View A&M (344.0)SWACA0-055%1.3
2-29Texas Southern (193.2)SWACA0-015%-11.4
3-3Jackson St. (226.6)SWACH0-043%-2.0
3-5Grambling St. (344.6)SWACH0-084%10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama St.SWAC26.2626.4336.3640.46-7.16-5.04
Alabama A&MSWAC3.184.6135.2942.38-0.94-0.70
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC5.544.6018.1821.48-3.53-2.63
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.164.6017.3920.58-2.06-2.71
Alcorn St.SWAC3.144.5833.3336.49-1.05-1.24
Grambling St.SWAC3.144.5811.1117.00-2.44-3.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.094.579.5216.72-2.50-3.04
Texas SouthernSWAC3.094.5742.8651.35-0.440.12
Jackson St.SWAC3.104.5645.0050.75-0.310.07
SouthernSWAC3.104.5663.1665.680.811.43
Jacksonville St.OVC2.852.0126.0925.24-1.36-1.00
Virginia TechACC2.721.9756.5250.930.360.04
MercerSC2.621.9271.4369.711.120.76
EvansvilleMVC2.671.9173.9175.411.280.97
WinthropBSth2.611.8963.1661.980.690.45
ChattanoogaSC2.611.8885.7184.481.861.29
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.561.8557.8958.420.400.31
UABCUSA2.601.8581.8278.721.661.06
Chicago St.WAC2.551.824.558.02-2.32-1.53
ElonCAA2.501.7950.0048.660.00-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.240.2871.4368.720.100.11
RadfordBSth0.350.2650.0051.290.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.290.2582.6181.140.190.16
TulaneAmer0.250.2233.3332.33-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.270.2168.1866.670.100.07
SeattleWAC0.320.2147.6244.99-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1966.6762.630.060.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1815.0027.27-0.12-0.08
BaylorB120.170.1872.7366.500.080.06
NebraskaB100.210.1754.1751.820.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1765.2266.160.050.06
WoffordSC0.230.1640.9145.38-0.04-0.01
MarquetteBE0.180.1662.5056.260.040.02
SamfordSC0.220.1639.1341.32-0.05-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1628.5731.90-0.07-0.06
Iowa St.B120.220.1573.9170.070.100.06
HawaiiBW0.220.1584.2181.680.150.09
CampbellBSth0.190.1428.5729.64-0.08-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.190.1423.8126.56-0.10-0.07
High PointBSth0.130.1455.0057.470.010.02
MemphisAmer0.130.1360.8760.800.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.170.1345.4549.71-0.02-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1313.6415.80-0.13-0.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1345.4546.29-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1359.0959.440.020.02
FurmanSC0.170.1352.1753.310.010.01
The CitadelSC0.230.1333.3331.30-0.08-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1328.5731.37-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.170.1252.1755.930.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1240.9140.64-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.110.1215.7917.42-0.07-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1265.2268.610.050.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1225.0033.22-0.08-0.04
SyracuseACC0.160.1266.6762.570.050.03
OhioMAC0.110.1261.9059.420.030.02
NorthwesternB100.210.1266.6763.430.070.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1145.4547.57-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.190.1125.0026.87-0.09-0.05
LibertyBSth0.190.1034.7836.50-0.06-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.130.1022.7324.97-0.07-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.120.1063.6459.230.030.02
OaklandHorz0.120.1068.0067.970.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1063.6460.930.030.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1058.3354.170.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1047.8350.14-0.010.00
AuburnSEC0.170.1040.9136.61-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.120.1052.1751.930.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0929.1733.14-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.170.0947.8344.55-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.0921.7423.40-0.09-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.110.0943.4840.60-0.01-0.02
BelmontOVC0.100.0966.6766.540.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0931.5831.99-0.02-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0950.0051.170.000.00
FIUCUSA0.110.0940.9145.30-0.02-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.110.0954.1750.940.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0970.5975.550.050.05
UTSACUSA0.110.0913.6413.63-0.08-0.06
ClemsonACC0.110.0960.8760.210.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.160.0933.3332.99-0.05-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0930.4331.18-0.04-0.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0738.1033.40-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.0761.9056.690.030.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4542.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0721.0523.59-0.04-0.03
IndianaB100.070.0779.1774.030.040.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0740.0038.50-0.01-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0766.6770.540.020.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.0759.0953.030.020.00
USC UpstateASun0.120.0622.7323.25-0.06-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.0666.6767.680.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0656.5256.310.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.71-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.47-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0643.4842.51-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0650.0049.100.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0642.8639.18-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0621.7423.31-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0613.6418.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.260.000.00
HofstraCAA0.110.0668.1865.290.040.02
James MadisonCAA0.110.0669.5768.500.040.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0631.8230.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.340.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.110.0645.8346.65-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.060.0681.8278.150.040.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0635.0035.99-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.380.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.840.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.110.0634.7840.92-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.110.0673.9170.060.050.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.5012.85-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.060.0625.0026.38-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0662.5059.780.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0621.7423.66-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.18-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0672.7368.020.030.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0638.1040.73-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0652.1751.940.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0659.0959.660.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0643.4842.63-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0650.0051.170.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.410.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0639.1337.74-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0660.8762.990.010.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0654.1755.090.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0672.0070.500.020.02
TCUB120.060.0643.4837.22-0.01-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0638.8938.51-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0650.0055.190.000.01
VCUA100.060.0673.9173.910.030.03
Washington St.P120.060.0636.3632.01-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0672.7376.350.050.03
WisconsinB100.060.0660.8755.860.010.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0680.9575.490.000.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0676.1968.220.030.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0682.6178.050.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.100.0645.4538.48-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0652.1753.360.000.00
BYUWCC0.100.0666.6769.500.030.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0670.8370.930.020.02
DuquesneA100.100.0663.6456.370.030.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0683.3383.010.030.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0634.7830.36-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0647.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0628.0030.73-0.05-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0659.0953.130.010.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0455.0054.530.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0357.1459.450.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0386.3682.350.040.02
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.45-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.010.000.00
LipscombASun0.060.0325.0029.27-0.03-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0363.1658.810.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.030.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0327.7829.14-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0326.0929.20-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0360.0057.950.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
George MasonA100.060.0334.7834.21-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.200.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.51-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.510.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0333.3335.50-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.650.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0340.9149.26-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.780.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.030.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.71-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.8320.12-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.69-0.03-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.610.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.49-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0369.5764.880.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.810.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.730.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.860.030.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0382.6179.550.030.02