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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:254.0
Current RPI:254
Expected SOS:349
Current SOS:349
Current Record:16-12
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-8
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:326



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12254.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Illinois (70.0)B10A80-63L0%0.0
11-10Bradley (265.0)MVCA85-59L0%0.0
11-16Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA73-84W100%0.0
11-18Chicago St. (259.0)WACH79-75W100%0.0
12-7Troy (285.0)SBA85-69L0%0.0
12-16Western Illinois (290.0)SumH59-52W100%0.0
12-21Tulane (223.0)CUSAA84-66L0%0.0
12-22Milwaukee (131.0)HorzN67-54L0%0.0
1-4Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA51-68W100%0.0
1-6Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA70-68L0%0.0
1-11Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH93-62W100%0.0
1-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH77-64W100%0.0
1-18Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH67-58W100%0.0
1-25Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACA54-58W100%0.0
1-27Southern (171.0)SWACA68-55L0%0.0
2-1Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH76-63W100%0.0
2-3Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH79-73W100%0.0
2-8Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACA70-75W100%0.0
2-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACA76-71L0%0.0
2-15Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA68-65L0%0.0
2-22Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH92-86W100%0.0
2-24Southern (171.0)SWACH64-87L0%0.0
3-1Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA86-66L0%0.0
3-3Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA87-90W100%0.0
3-6Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH68-66W100%0.0
3-8Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH67-63W100%0.0
3-13Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACN64-51W100%0.0
3-14Texas Southern (239.0)SWACN73-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama St.SWAC26.6326.6361.4061.406.076.07
Texas SouthernSWAC6.526.5255.1755.170.670.67
Alcorn St.SWAC6.476.4736.0036.00-1.81-1.81
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.954.9532.2632.26-1.75-1.75
Alabama A&MSWAC4.804.8042.3142.31-0.74-0.74
Grambling St.SWAC4.794.7916.0016.00-3.26-3.26
Jackson St.SWAC4.764.7634.4834.48-1.48-1.48
SouthernSWAC4.744.7451.8551.850.180.18
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.724.7237.0437.04-1.22-1.22
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.714.7122.2222.22-2.62-2.62
Jacksonville St.OVC2.032.0328.5728.57-0.87-0.87
TroySB1.911.9128.5728.57-0.82-0.82
Western IllinoisSum1.911.9126.9226.92-0.88-0.88
TulaneCUSA1.901.9048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC1.901.9035.4835.48-0.55-0.55
IllinoisB101.871.8756.2556.250.230.23
Chicago St.WAC1.871.8737.9337.93-0.45-0.45
MilwaukeeHorz1.811.8159.3859.380.340.34
Arkansas Little RockSB0.250.2543.3343.33-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.190.1978.7978.790.110.11
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
TulsaCUSA0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
MarquetteBE0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
IowaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
FIUCUSA0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
IUPUISum0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Texas St.SB0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01