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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Alabama St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:338.3
Current RPI:346
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:345
Current Record:3-13
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-13
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:332
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15271.80.05%
13-16291.40.25%
12-17306.81.28%
11-18319.15.02%
10-19329.311.90%
9-20336.321.51%
8-21340.823.94%
7-22343.920.44%
6-23346.111.14%
5-24347.73.72%
4-25348.90.69%
3-26349.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Western Kentucky (218.6)CUSAA79-66L0%0.0
11-14TCU (39.4)B12A98-62L0%0.0
11-16Louisiana Tech (130.0)CUSAA87-56L0%0.0
11-22Kennesaw St. (300.0)ASunA79-72L0%0.0
11-25Northern Arizona (341.1)BSkyN57-71L0%0.0
11-26Cal St. Fullerton (319.8)BWN76-67W100%0.0
11-29Jacksonville St. (162.5)OVCH69-72L0%0.0
12-4Troy (196.5)SBA83-65L0%0.0
12-12San Diego St. (72.5)MWCA73-41L0%0.0
12-14Tennessee St. (134.5)OVCA68-46L0%0.0
12-22Ball St. (202.6)MACA73-48L0%0.0
1-2Grambling St. (343.3)SWACH73-69W100%0.0
1-4Jackson St. (291.3)SWACH60-63L0%0.0
1-7Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.3)SWACA71-63L0%0.0
1-9Mississippi Valley St. (325.8)SWACA73-70L0%0.0
1-14Alabama A&M (350.3)SWACA55-57W100%0.0
1-21Alcorn St. (307.0)SWACH0-049%-0.3
1-23Southern (266.0)SWACH0-034%-4.7
1-28Texas Southern (110.9)SWACA0-06%-17.4
1-30Prairie View A&M (294.1)SWACA0-028%-6.5
2-4Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.3)SWACH0-067%5.0
2-6Mississippi Valley St. (325.8)SWACH0-063%3.7
2-11Alabama A&M (350.3)SWACH0-081%9.7
2-18Alcorn St. (307.0)SWACA0-028%-6.5
2-20Southern (266.0)SWACA0-016%-10.9
2-25Texas Southern (110.9)SWACH0-016%-11.2
2-27Prairie View A&M (294.1)SWACH0-049%-0.3
3-2Grambling St. (343.3)SWACA0-050%-0.1
3-4Jackson St. (291.3)SWACA0-023%-8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama St.SWAC26.4626.4023.4429.59-14.06-10.78
Texas SouthernSWAC0.294.4450.0064.720.001.31
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.294.4417.6533.45-0.19-1.47
Alabama A&MSWAC3.594.436.6712.05-3.11-3.36
Grambling St.SWAC3.314.4326.6729.87-1.55-1.78
Alcorn St.SWAC0.474.4221.4334.47-0.27-1.37
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.314.415.8819.83-2.92-2.66
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.314.4112.5021.52-2.48-2.51
Jackson St.SWAC3.224.4026.6742.14-1.50-0.69
SouthernSWAC0.374.4037.5049.37-0.09-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA3.221.9462.5068.620.810.72
Jacksonville St.OVC3.481.9150.0051.230.000.05
Tennessee St.OVC3.301.8456.2559.960.410.37
TCUB123.211.8175.0062.371.600.45
Northern ArizonaBSky3.301.7911.7617.68-2.52-1.15
TroySB3.221.7843.7546.34-0.40-0.13
Western KentuckyCUSA3.211.7844.4443.23-0.36-0.24
Kennesaw St.ASun3.221.7623.5330.49-1.70-0.69
Cal St. FullertonBW3.211.7540.0039.14-0.64-0.38
Ball St.MAC3.121.7262.5054.590.780.16
San Diego St.MWC3.121.7256.2563.110.390.45
Tennessee TechOVC0.370.3031.5833.34-0.14-0.10
UABCUSA0.360.2961.1164.320.080.08
Southern MissCUSA0.380.2425.0022.32-0.19-0.13
BaylorB120.100.2494.1280.880.090.15
Grand CanyonWAC0.270.2161.1163.070.060.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.270.1831.5832.58-0.10-0.06
UNLVMWC0.450.1847.3743.68-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1552.9455.050.010.02
BelmontOVC0.160.1575.0074.470.080.07
HawaiiBW0.280.1543.7546.21-0.04-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1555.5660.070.010.03
WashingtonP120.450.1550.0043.390.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.280.1547.0648.10-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.090.1443.7538.29-0.01-0.03
Little RockSB0.180.1456.2551.110.020.00
RiceCUSA0.090.1458.8264.790.020.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.1361.1147.020.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.180.1368.4264.450.070.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1352.9450.600.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1263.1660.550.050.03
UC DavisBW0.180.1252.9454.710.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.1235.2941.48-0.03-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.270.1250.0055.770.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.270.120.0014.44-0.27-0.09
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1225.0028.40-0.09-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.270.1241.1846.18-0.05-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.270.1257.8957.540.040.02
Southern UtahBSky0.280.1211.7618.03-0.21-0.08
OhioMAC0.080.1266.6767.550.030.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1283.3383.150.120.08
DrakeMVC0.180.1229.4127.72-0.08-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1235.2935.14-0.06-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1258.8254.690.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.190.1253.3355.990.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.180.1257.8958.030.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1231.2536.88-0.04-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.180.1218.7524.05-0.11-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1156.2551.810.020.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1177.7862.260.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1152.9450.580.010.00
Texas St.SB0.090.1153.3345.980.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.1162.5062.710.020.03
Iowa St.B120.180.1164.7161.830.050.03
SeattleWAC0.180.1140.0037.08-0.04-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.1168.7570.270.030.05
West VirginiaB120.180.1183.3380.700.120.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.1061.1159.670.020.02
LipscombASun0.180.0944.4450.48-0.020.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0912.5019.98-0.07-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.0964.7169.850.050.04
NebraskaB100.090.0947.0641.67-0.01-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.190.0925.0031.85-0.09-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0952.9451.300.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.280.0950.0043.680.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.190.0937.5034.55-0.05-0.03
North FloridaASun0.180.0923.5331.23-0.09-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.160.0922.2227.15-0.09-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.180.0957.1457.210.030.01
Missouri St.MVC0.180.0963.1659.600.050.02
MissouriSEC0.180.0929.4125.93-0.07-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0925.0029.15-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0964.7165.930.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.170.0943.7543.70-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.180.09100.0097.320.180.08
Old DominionCUSA0.170.0961.1162.280.040.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0988.8987.310.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0744.4443.57-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.0618.7527.05-0.06-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0637.5044.22-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0626.3236.97-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.0652.6353.100.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.0652.6360.240.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0621.4330.89-0.06-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0613.3327.07-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.180.0636.8435.66-0.05-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0622.2223.82-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0631.5835.67-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.100.0647.3741.47-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0647.3741.50-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0652.9450.590.000.00
MemphisAmer0.100.0673.6867.200.050.02
NJITASun0.000.0638.8942.49-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0660.0072.810.020.03
Ohio St.B100.100.0663.1658.020.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0665.0055.280.030.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0662.5063.260.000.02
StetsonASun0.090.0629.4130.28-0.04-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0622.2220.60-0.00-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0633.3333.28-0.03-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.0682.3576.300.060.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0623.5321.80-0.05-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.0647.3745.83-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.170.0675.0074.870.080.03
South FloridaAmer0.180.0635.2928.97-0.05-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0641.1837.57-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0684.2178.680.060.03
TulsaAmer0.170.0658.8251.180.030.00
Utah St.MWC0.090.0643.7543.98-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0646.6738.45-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0664.7157.710.030.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0611.7621.45-0.06-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0620.0026.44-0.05-0.03
BradleyMVC0.180.0636.8433.55-0.05-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0637.5044.96-0.02-0.01
DenverSum0.090.0657.8955.950.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0653.3356.530.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0658.8260.260.020.01
George MasonA100.000.0664.7156.510.000.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0652.6348.070.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0662.5060.090.020.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0668.4268.060.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0044.98-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.090.0694.4481.800.080.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0646.6747.34-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0650.0057.040.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0631.2538.34-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0660.0053.460.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0616.6713.65-0.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0620.0024.21-0.05-0.03
SienaMAAC0.090.0640.0045.18-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0643.7541.41-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.090.0638.8935.38-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0677.7865.330.050.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0652.9452.870.000.00
UtahP120.000.0668.7567.640.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0683.3381.320.000.04
OklahomaB120.090.0647.0641.20-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.170.0633.3335.90-0.06-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0689.4784.510.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0688.8986.560.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0617.6529.60-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.090.0664.7166.910.030.02
IndianaB100.090.0668.4264.610.030.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0626.3229.57-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0668.7564.060.000.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0647.0651.38-0.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0684.2179.280.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0652.9438.780.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0663.1657.700.020.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0678.9569.160.050.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0652.6347.720.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.090.0640.0040.47-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0360.0061.270.020.01
DukeACC0.090.0377.7873.860.050.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0368.4252.190.030.00
PortlandWCC0.100.0347.0640.46-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0344.4442.60-0.01-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0312.5024.37-0.07-0.02
IowaB100.090.0355.0049.300.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.090.0363.1660.390.020.01
MercerSC0.090.0333.3343.06-0.03-0.00
MichiganB100.090.0363.1658.150.020.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0357.8952.960.010.00
UMBCAE0.090.0362.5058.830.020.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0347.3744.51-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.090.0362.5063.120.020.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0312.5028.49-0.06-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0388.8973.830.060.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0312.5033.82-0.07-0.01
SamfordSC0.080.0364.7160.050.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0382.3574.990.060.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3376.940.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0364.7157.700.030.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0328.5731.47-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6755.390.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0353.3361.620.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0316.6718.29-0.06-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0343.7543.71-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0322.2225.60-0.05-0.01
CornellIvy0.090.0320.0024.53-0.06-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5022.04-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0352.9451.110.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0377.7878.460.050.02
IUPUISum0.090.0338.8943.16-0.02-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.090.0325.0023.83-0.05-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0058.290.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0333.3340.46-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0327.7824.32-0.04-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0380.0077.810.060.02
USCP120.090.0380.0071.930.060.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0377.7877.270.050.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0350.0061.630.000.01
WoffordSC0.090.0331.2540.50-0.03-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0316.6723.07-0.05-0.01