Wisconsin Milwaukee

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	127.3
Current RPI:	134
Expected SOS:	164
Current SOS:	151
Current Record:	13-10
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	8-5
Expected Conf Record:	11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	9.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	114
Expected OOC SOS:	141

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-10	97.4	5.23%
18-11	109.8	20.19%
17-12	122.6	33.52%
16-13	136.8	26.96%
15-14	152.7	11.42%
14-15	170.8	2.42%
13-16	189.4	0.25%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin Milwaukee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	A	57-59	W	100%	0.0
11-18	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	H	62-49	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	73-38	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	A	68-55	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	A	54-59	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	H	59-41	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	H	73-71	W	100%	0.0
12-5	DePaul (187.2)	BE	A	76-87	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Northern Iowa (60.5)	MVC	A	67-51	L	0%	0.0
12-13	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	H	54-60	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Marquette (15.5)	BE	A	64-50	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	A	55-57	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Butler (143.2)	Horz	A	54-50	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	A	72-61	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	H	64-63	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	H	58-38	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	H	84-74	W	100%	0.0
1-20	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	A	68-66	L	0%	0.0
1-22	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	A	83-57	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Butler (143.2)	Horz	H	53-42	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	H	52-55	L	0%	0.0
1-31	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	65-73	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	A	75-81	W	100%	0.0
2-10	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	A	0-0		46%	-1.1
2-12	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	A	0-0		63%	3.8
2-14	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	H	0-0		46%	-1.2
2-20	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	H	0-0		67%	4.9
2-23	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	A	0-0		73%	6.6
2-25	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	A	0-0		79%	8.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin Milwaukee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wisconsin Milwaukee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wisconsin Milwaukee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	26.54	26.41	58.42	60.68	4.47	5.64
Valparaiso	Horz	5.21	4.48	66.67	64.62	1.74	1.31
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	5.17	4.47	38.89	42.53	-1.15	-0.67
Detroit	Horz	3.12	4.45	50.00	50.66	0.00	0.06
Loyola Chicago	Horz	2.96	4.44	20.00	22.11	-1.78	-2.48
Illinois Chicago	Horz	3.03	4.44	31.58	31.37	-1.12	-1.66
Butler	Horz	5.11	4.42	50.00	50.86	0.00	0.08
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.94	4.42	80.95	80.67	1.82	2.71
Wright St.	Horz	3.07	4.42	43.48	42.20	-0.40	-0.69
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.99	4.41	44.44	47.65	-0.55	-0.21
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.42	1.93	5.56	7.58	-2.15	-1.64
Wisconsin	B10	2.38	1.87	73.91	73.11	1.14	0.87
Western Michigan	MAC	2.28	1.85	38.10	40.99	-0.54	-0.33
DePaul	BE	2.28	1.85	52.38	44.31	0.11	-0.21
Marquette	BE	2.33	1.84	78.26	75.18	1.32	0.93
IUPUI	Sum	2.37	1.84	36.36	36.77	-0.65	-0.49
Michigan St.	B10	2.32	1.84	75.00	71.98	1.16	0.81
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.27	1.78	45.45	45.83	-0.21	-0.15
Texas Southern	SWAC	2.27	1.78	33.33	43.58	-0.76	-0.23
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	1.72	54.55	55.07	0.00	0.17
Northern Iowa	MVC	2.17	1.72	60.87	60.17	0.47	0.35
Toledo	MAC	0.37	0.37	38.10	40.81	-0.09	-0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.36	0.37	40.91	38.38	-0.06	-0.09
Akron	MAC	0.30	0.30	68.18	67.91	0.11	0.11
Ball St.	MAC	0.34	0.27	55.00	57.41	0.03	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.21	0.24	28.57	34.20	-0.09	-0.08
Ohio St.	B10	0.19	0.23	86.96	85.46	0.14	0.16
Indiana St.	MVC	0.20	0.21	56.52	54.22	0.03	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.30	0.21	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.29	0.20	65.22	60.58	0.09	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.18	45.45	44.02	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.19	0.17	34.78	35.20	-0.06	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.23	0.17	78.26	72.66	0.13	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.17	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.16	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.25	0.15	59.09	56.35	0.05	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.15	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.15	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.24	0.15	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.20	0.15	81.82	77.20	0.13	0.08
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.15	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.07
Illinois	B10	0.15	0.15	72.73	64.43	0.07	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.20	0.15	54.17	49.44	0.02	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.14	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.14	75.00	75.78	0.09	0.07
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.14	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.12	68.42	66.45	0.06	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.15	0.12	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.15	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.16	0.12	68.00	70.03	0.06	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.12	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.07
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.19	0.12	35.00	35.31	-0.06	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.16	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.07	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.12	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.12	34.78	32.06	-0.05	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.12	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.12	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.12	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.11	81.82	81.49	0.12	0.07
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.11	19.05	25.52	-0.06	-0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.11	80.95	77.38	0.09	0.06
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.14	0.11	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.11	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.09	4.76	9.95	-0.09	-0.07
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.05
Denver	SB	0.14	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.06	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.09	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.00	0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.09	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.09	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.06	-0.04
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.09	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.15	0.09	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.14	0.09	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.02
Samford	SC	0.11	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.04	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.06	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.06	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.08	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.00	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.00	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.00	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.00	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.00	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.00	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.00	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.00	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.00	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.00	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.00	-0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.04	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.03	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.03	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.03	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.03	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.09	0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.03	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.00	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.00	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.00	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.00	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.00	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.00	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.00	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.00	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.02	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00