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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Old Dominion

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:145.4
Current RPI:160
Expected SOS:197
Current SOS:142
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:5-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10118.210.77%
20-11133.230.77%
19-12148.233.17%
18-13163.118.32%
17-14178.45.81%
16-15193.31.09%
15-16207.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Niagara (305.3)MAACH67-50W100%0.0
11-16Buffalo (94.5)MACH77-58W100%0.0
11-18Morgan St. (321.4)MEACH79-48W100%0.0
11-21Purdue (14.4)B10N39-61L0%0.0
11-22Saint Joseph's (38.5)A10N66-64L0%0.0
11-28VCU (30.0)A10A76-67L0%0.0
12-1William & Mary (42.3)CAAA55-48L0%0.0
12-4Delaware St. (346.8)MEACH82-38W100%0.0
12-12Georgia St. (137.2)SBA68-64L0%0.0
12-16Richmond (113.4)A10A77-61L0%0.0
12-18Maryland Eastern Shore (278.8)MEACH77-47W100%0.0
12-22Rhode Island (103.6)A10H71-65W100%0.0
12-29Norfolk St. (221.1)MEACH68-57W100%0.0
1-2Charlotte (231.0)CUSAH74-65W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Tech (118.2)CUSAA53-56W100%0.0
1-9Southern Miss (290.4)CUSAA73-71L0%0.0
1-14UAB (93.6)CUSAH71-72L0%0.0
1-16Middle Tennessee (79.1)CUSAH61-64L0%0.0
1-21Western Kentucky (165.8)CUSAH68-62W100%0.0
1-23Marshall (132.8)CUSAH75-78L0%0.0
1-28Florida Atlantic (275.9)CUSAA66-78W100%0.0
1-30FIU (226.8)CUSAA60-64W100%0.0
2-6Charlotte (231.0)CUSAA0-069%5.3
2-11North Texas (309.6)CUSAH0-095%17.8
2-13Rice (297.3)CUSAH0-093%16.2
2-18Western Kentucky (165.8)CUSAA0-061%3.0
2-20Marshall (132.8)CUSAA0-052%0.6
2-25UTEP (244.4)CUSAH0-087%12.0
2-27UTSA (340.4)CUSAH0-098%23.4
3-3North Texas (309.6)CUSAA0-085%11.2
3-5Rice (297.3)CUSAA0-081%9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Old DominionCUSA26.1926.1251.0661.410.565.96
CharlotteCUSA2.713.8938.1044.01-0.65-0.47
MarshallCUSA2.603.8345.4548.95-0.24-0.08
North TexasCUSA0.283.8330.0030.89-0.11-1.46
RiceCUSA0.273.8325.0029.33-0.13-1.58
Western KentuckyCUSA2.593.8250.0050.060.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.652.3268.4267.770.980.83
UABCUSA2.602.3080.9577.571.611.27
Southern MissCUSA2.612.3029.4131.09-1.07-0.87
Louisiana TechCUSA2.562.2878.9574.801.481.13
UTEPCUSA0.442.2550.0051.300.000.06
UTSACUSA0.392.2214.2914.42-0.28-1.58
FIUCUSA2.652.2245.0047.57-0.27-0.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.662.2225.0029.33-1.33-0.92
Saint Joseph'sA102.631.8080.9576.691.630.96
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.381.7828.5734.02-1.02-0.57
VCUA102.491.7776.1976.001.300.92
Norfolk St.MEAC2.271.7540.0049.20-0.45-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC2.381.7522.2230.24-1.32-0.69
Delaware St.MEAC2.331.7310.5315.41-1.84-1.19
Rhode IslandA102.431.7257.1457.860.350.27
RichmondA102.431.7250.0052.080.000.07
Georgia St.SB2.441.7058.8256.700.430.23
BuffaloMAC2.381.6660.0059.490.480.32
NiagaraMAAC2.321.6426.0926.33-1.11-0.78
PurdueB102.271.6181.8277.511.450.89
William & MaryCAA2.271.6168.4268.180.840.59
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.370.2426.0930.33-0.17-0.10
HamptonMEAC0.170.2360.0061.350.030.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.2365.0068.750.040.08
HowardMEAC0.270.2240.0042.53-0.05-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.260.2269.5768.670.100.08
DavidsonA100.160.2157.8955.400.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.170.2015.7922.51-0.11-0.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.270.1926.3236.93-0.13-0.05
FordhamA100.210.1857.8954.300.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.310.1870.0069.070.120.07
South AlabamaSB0.180.1735.0034.93-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.180.1720.0023.76-0.11-0.09
South Carolina St.MEAC0.220.1747.6252.96-0.010.01
DaytonA100.060.1685.7181.220.040.10
DuquesneA100.110.1666.6758.760.040.03
MarylandB100.150.1686.9681.770.110.10
George MasonA100.160.1636.3635.33-0.04-0.05
George WashingtonA100.110.1677.2771.670.060.07
La SalleA100.210.1621.0520.91-0.12-0.09
MassachusettsA100.100.1642.8639.84-0.01-0.03
ElonCAA0.160.1454.5553.020.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.220.1428.5734.73-0.09-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.1421.0523.70-0.10-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1475.0073.480.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1450.0046.870.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1360.0057.960.020.02
MichiganB100.160.1372.7367.980.070.05
Saint LouisA100.100.1338.1033.38-0.02-0.04
DelawareCAA0.170.1122.7323.64-0.09-0.06
Texas St.SB0.130.1141.1840.28-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1150.0050.510.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1131.5833.51-0.06-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.120.1147.8343.92-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1127.2730.43-0.05-0.04
RiderMAAC0.160.1141.6743.51-0.03-0.01
NebraskaB100.160.1152.1751.560.010.00
AkronMAC0.100.1181.8279.750.070.06
TowsonCAA0.120.0963.6457.330.030.01
HofstraCAA0.110.0968.1865.420.040.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.0957.8961.920.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.170.0947.8348.69-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.110.0914.2918.63-0.08-0.05
BelmontOVC0.110.0869.5770.030.040.03
CreightonBE0.000.0860.8759.050.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0860.0057.290.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.0854.5555.310.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0833.3332.69-0.02-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0852.3848.890.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.170.0873.9173.090.080.04
ToledoMAC0.110.0857.1457.560.020.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0863.6461.810.010.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0852.1754.140.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0847.3750.51-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.110.0852.3854.240.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0853.3355.180.000.01
Michigan St.B100.110.0882.6181.380.070.05
New MexicoMWC0.050.0863.6464.090.010.02
Miami OHMAC0.110.0828.5728.88-0.05-0.03
CampbellBSth0.110.0830.0030.38-0.04-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.150.0845.0043.19-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.150.0831.8232.71-0.06-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0845.4541.98-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0852.1752.980.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.100.0856.5253.460.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0881.8281.010.070.05
TennesseeSEC0.100.0850.0048.260.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0841.6743.85-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.160.0868.1867.800.060.03
VermontAE0.150.0856.5258.380.020.01
West VirginiaB120.100.0881.8278.720.070.05
IonaMAAC0.100.0859.0959.680.020.02
WisconsinB100.100.0860.8755.900.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.0086.120.050.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.0661.9059.930.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0636.8437.30-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0640.0044.95-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0675.0071.280.030.03
High PointBSth0.120.0657.8961.480.020.01
VirginiaACC0.120.0681.8276.020.070.03
AlabamaSEC0.120.0657.1452.310.020.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.0650.0056.540.000.01
MemphisAmer0.120.0659.0958.550.020.01
MississippiSEC0.120.0663.6456.050.030.01
IUPUISum0.110.0641.6740.25-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.110.0631.8232.92-0.04-0.02
AuburnSEC0.110.0642.8637.19-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0635.2944.50-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.0044.39-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0622.7324.85-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0645.0049.60-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0655.5650.840.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0657.1457.940.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0681.8277.490.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0617.3921.76-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0610.0015.28-0.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0660.0054.590.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0640.9143.37-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0680.0082.460.030.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0645.4547.97-0.01-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0690.9184.430.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.110.0522.7326.19-0.06-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0566.6760.120.040.01
StetsonASun0.110.0525.0029.75-0.05-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0565.0064.310.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.110.0568.1863.250.040.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0550.0050.860.000.00
North FloridaASun0.110.0568.1869.350.040.02
Ohio St.B100.110.0558.3354.120.020.00
PennIvy0.110.0535.2934.69-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.100.0580.0070.290.060.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.054.7614.01-0.10-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.110.0570.5974.500.040.03
TCUB120.110.0545.4537.84-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.110.0561.9058.420.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0555.0048.870.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0538.8943.22-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0566.6761.680.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0563.6468.210.000.02
DukeACC0.110.0572.7369.920.050.02
IllinoisB100.100.0547.8344.51-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0552.1747.620.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.100.0552.1747.250.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.100.0533.3331.83-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0538.1042.99-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0554.5553.780.000.00
IowaB100.100.0581.8279.900.060.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.0521.40-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0580.9575.640.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.1780.770.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0538.1037.53-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0538.1041.92-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0566.6767.290.030.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.710.020.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0535.0031.39-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0568.1862.190.020.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.9140.46-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0531.8233.75-0.04-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0352.1749.340.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0361.9060.410.020.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0333.3332.41-0.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0354.5555.190.010.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0365.0067.510.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0330.0028.61-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0347.6252.92-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0376.1976.220.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0365.0060.810.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0363.6465.480.020.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0361.9063.360.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0331.5836.16-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0316.6724.27-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0363.6462.340.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0336.3634.95-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0373.9176.040.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0316.6720.71-0.04-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0359.0955.550.010.00
LipscombASun0.050.0321.7427.64-0.03-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0340.9139.22-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0336.3630.98-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.035.2610.18-0.05-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0330.0032.46-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0340.9143.01-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0385.7176.030.040.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0363.1666.150.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0315.7916.39-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0368.1861.780.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0373.6870.400.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0347.6257.27-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.670.020.01
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.170.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0320.8325.01-0.03-0.01
UtahP120.060.0372.7368.550.030.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0335.0035.36-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0338.1043.35-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0326.3233.83-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0333.3334.18-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.190.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0350.0048.750.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0372.7368.840.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0326.0925.56-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0319.0522.35-0.03-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0338.1041.23-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0326.3227.34-0.03-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0345.0042.81-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.8320.11-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0368.7574.730.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0361.9054.010.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0323.8125.03-0.03-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0315.0015.65-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0345.4542.14-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0338.1033.45-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0335.0036.57-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0373.9175.010.020.01
ButlerBE0.050.0368.1866.490.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0322.7323.37-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.750.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.47-0.02-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9139.70-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.010.020.01
IndianaB100.000.0382.6177.370.000.01
LehighPat0.050.0330.0036.08-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6763.480.000.01
Penn St.B100.050.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0378.2671.960.030.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0352.3853.620.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0322.7320.68-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0327.2724.41-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0380.9583.050.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0359.0962.730.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0386.3685.330.040.02