Old Dominion

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	124.4
Current RPI:	120
Expected SOS:	132
Current SOS:	128
Current Record:	15-10
Expected Record:	18-13
Current Conf Record:	10-3
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	7.97%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	151
Expected OOC SOS:	26

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-10	89.0	0.74%
20-11	101.0	7.74%
19-12	112.4	25.03%
18-13	124.8	37.01%
17-14	138.1	24.00%
16-15	152.7	5.09%
15-16	169.2	0.38%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Northern Iowa (61.8)	MVC	H	46-63	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Long Island (106.7)	NEC	H	77-69	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Howard (301.0)	MEAC	H	53-43	W	100%	0.0
11-19	South Florida (95.3)	BE	N	66-68	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Kentucky (3.3)	SEC	N	62-52	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Vermont (168.3)	AE	H	63-65	L	0%	0.0
11-29	East Carolina (158.8)	CUSA	H	63-58	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Northeastern (162.8)	CAA	A	59-69	W	100%	0.0
12-9	Fairfield (137.0)	MAAC	N	59-51	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Central Florida (75.0)	CUSA	A	61-53	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Richmond (135.9)	A10	A	90-82	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Virginia Military Inst (265.0)	BSth	H	81-73	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Missouri (11.3)	B12	H	68-75	L	0%	0.0
1-2	James Madison (250.9)	CAA	A	61-67	W	100%	0.0
1-5	George Mason (95.3)	CAA	H	54-63	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Towson (304.6)	CAA	H	75-38	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Delaware (181.6)	CAA	A	66-68	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Hofstra (237.3)	CAA	H	69-61	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Towson (304.6)	CAA	A	41-71	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)	CAA	A	61-48	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Northeastern (162.8)	CAA	H	69-57	W	100%	0.0
1-25	NC Wilmington (206.4)	CAA	A	48-53	W	100%	0.0
1-28	William & Mary (303.9)	CAA	H	68-44	W	100%	0.0
2-2	James Madison (250.9)	CAA	H	80-71	W	100%	0.0
2-4	George Mason (95.3)	CAA	A	54-50	L	0%	0.0
2-8	William & Mary (303.9)	CAA	A	0-0		86%	11.7
2-11	Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)	CAA	H	0-0		44%	-1.5
2-14	NC Wilmington (206.4)	CAA	H	0-0		83%	10.3
2-18	Missouri St. (82.6)	MVC	A	0-0		21%	-9.0
2-22	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	A	0-0		26%	-7.0
2-25	Drexel (79.6)	CAA	H	0-0		47%	-0.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Old Dominion	CAA	26.39	26.21	57.26	56.10	3.83	3.20
William & Mary	CAA	2.74	4.03	13.04	13.88	-2.03	-2.91
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.58	4.00	79.17	78.11	1.51	2.25
Towson	CAA	4.49	3.95	4.35	5.63	-4.10	-3.50
George Mason	CAA	4.53	3.92	73.91	70.58	2.17	1.61
James Madison	CAA	4.54	3.89	43.48	42.94	-0.59	-0.55
Northeastern	CAA	4.45	3.89	52.38	52.15	0.21	0.17
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.53	3.89	40.91	38.16	-0.46	-0.92
Hofstra	CAA	2.70	2.42	33.33	36.57	-0.90	-0.65
Georgia St.	CAA	0.62	2.39	66.67	69.57	0.21	0.94
Delaware	CAA	2.62	2.39	50.00	52.47	0.00	0.12
Drexel	CAA	0.71	2.39	79.17	78.92	0.41	1.38
Vermont	AE	2.25	1.77	60.00	62.63	0.45	0.45
Northern Iowa	MVC	2.00	1.72	60.87	60.10	0.43	0.35
Richmond	A10	2.08	1.72	47.83	46.76	-0.09	-0.11
Howard	MEAC	2.09	1.69	22.73	26.58	-1.14	-0.79
South Florida	BE	2.08	1.69	57.14	50.21	0.30	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	2.06	1.68	70.00	65.31	0.82	0.51
East Carolina	CUSA	2.05	1.67	47.06	43.39	-0.12	-0.22
Missouri	B12	2.04	1.67	91.30	87.51	1.69	1.25
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	1.67	54.17	56.34	0.01	0.21
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.00	1.67	47.37	45.95	-0.11	-0.13
Long Island	NEC	2.08	1.66	73.91	73.51	0.99	0.78
Fairfield	MAAC	2.00	1.64	54.55	53.27	0.18	0.11
Kentucky	SEC	2.00	1.61	95.83	93.31	1.83	1.40
Liberty	BSth	0.22	0.28	27.27	27.33	-0.10	-0.13
Manhattan	MAAC	0.24	0.24	68.00	69.08	0.09	0.09
Hampton	MEAC	0.25	0.22	34.78	37.18	-0.08	-0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.25	0.21	79.17	80.14	0.14	0.13
La Salle	A10	0.29	0.21	70.83	68.83	0.12	0.08
Rhode Island	A10	0.29	0.21	20.83	20.61	-0.17	-0.12
Radford	BSth	0.31	0.19	8.70	13.12	-0.25	-0.14
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.19	24.00	24.86	-0.07	-0.10
Kansas	B12	0.25	0.19	78.26	78.42	0.14	0.11
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.18	59.09	59.78	0.02	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.17	40.91	39.81	-0.03	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.26	0.17	73.91	68.65	0.13	0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.17	0.16	40.00	39.70	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.16	62.50	62.07	0.02	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.16	34.78	32.10	-0.04	-0.06
NC Greensboro	SC	0.22	0.16	34.78	33.38	-0.07	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.21	0.16	43.48	40.24	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.25	0.16	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	34.78	32.05	-0.05	-0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.20	0.15	85.71	82.22	0.15	0.10
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.14	56.52	54.28	0.02	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.17	0.14	13.04	14.47	-0.12	-0.10
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.13	36.00	40.36	-0.04	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.12	0.13	33.33	37.75	-0.04	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.17	0.13	36.36	39.73	-0.05	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.12	0.13	0.00	4.04	-0.12	-0.12
Virginia	ACC	0.16	0.13	81.82	76.80	0.10	0.07
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.12	69.57	71.58	0.02	0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.15	0.12	57.69	58.27	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.11	42.11	49.86	-0.02	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.11	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.11	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.13	0.11	52.00	48.78	0.01	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.11	17.39	19.76	-0.11	-0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.13	0.11	43.48	45.03	-0.02	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.04	0.11	68.18	68.98	0.01	0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.12	0.11	56.52	57.14	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.11	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.11	84.00	82.62	0.06	0.07
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.11	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.04	0.11	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.04	0.11	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.11	63.64	63.17	0.04	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.17	0.11	34.78	33.44	-0.05	-0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.12	0.11	28.00	28.87	-0.05	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.11	21.74	22.75	-0.05	-0.06
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.10	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.12	0.10	57.69	58.54	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.09	68.42	68.62	0.04	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.09	34.78	38.74	-0.03	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.09	34.78	34.75	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.09	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.09	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	38.89	41.49	-0.02	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.08	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.08	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.08	65.22	62.35	0.04	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.08	9.52	11.47	-0.11	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	69.57	70.42	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.08	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.08	20.83	23.73	-0.05	-0.04
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.08	77.27	77.37	0.05	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	78.26	74.29	0.05	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.08	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.13	0.08	58.33	59.92	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.12	0.08	20.83	22.81	-0.07	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.08	73.91	68.41	0.04	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.13	0.08	30.43	29.57	-0.05	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.12	0.08	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.08	82.61	81.41	0.06	0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	8.70	12.14	-0.07	-0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.08	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.12	0.08	82.61	84.58	0.08	0.06
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.08	33.33	37.11	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	70.83	66.50	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.04	0.08	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.08	68.00	70.06	0.04	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.04	0.08	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.65	0.03	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.57	70.16	0.03	0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.12	0.08	73.91	75.03	0.06	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.12	0.08	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.04	0.08	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.35	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.06	68.18	67.72	0.04	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.06	40.91	43.65	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.06	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.06	42.11	45.89	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.06	38.10	37.80	-0.02	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.06	31.82	32.81	-0.04	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.04	0.06	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.06	31.82	34.86	-0.03	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	22.73	24.64	-0.02	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.06	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.04	0.06	14.29	16.80	-0.03	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.04	0.06	45.45	47.20	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.06	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.04	0.06	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.06	70.83	64.53	0.04	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.04	0.06	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.09	0.05	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.05	90.48	87.91	0.07	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.05	75.00	75.73	0.04	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.05	43.48	42.98	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.04	0.05	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.09	0.05	77.27	75.07	0.05	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.05	26.09	28.61	-0.04	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.04	0.05	90.91	87.78	0.03	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.05	66.67	65.98	0.00	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.04	0.05	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.04	0.05	73.91	74.94	0.02	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.04	0.05	30.00	34.18	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.04	0.05	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.05	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.04	0.05	8.33	10.90	-0.03	-0.04
Louisville	BE	0.04	0.05	79.17	74.20	0.02	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.05	65.22	62.67	0.03	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.04	0.05	21.74	21.75	-0.02	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.05	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.04	0.05	33.33	35.20	-0.01	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.04	0.05	68.18	67.98	0.01	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.04	0.05	90.91	83.90	0.03	0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.08	0.05	70.83	73.74	0.03	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.08	0.05	27.27	23.78	-0.04	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.05	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.05	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.05	79.17	76.62	0.02	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.04	0.05	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.05	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.05	69.57	61.84	0.03	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.05	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.02
Maine	AE	0.08	0.05	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.05	69.57	66.33	0.03	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.05	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.05	40.91	39.60	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.05	77.27	77.70	0.02	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.05	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.08	0.05	62.50	62.20	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.04	0.05	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.05	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.05	69.57	65.88	0.00	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.04	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.57	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.04	0.03	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.04	0.03	36.84	41.47	-0.01	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.04	0.03	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.04	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.00	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.04	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.03	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.04	0.03	45.45	45.69	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.00	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	66.67	60.84	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.04	0.03	55.00	54.81	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.02	0.00	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.04	0.03	33.33	38.39	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.04	0.03	30.00	31.40	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.03	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.77	0.00	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.00	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	17.39	20.75	-0.00	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.03	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	22.22	27.56	-0.02	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	66.59	0.00	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.04	0.03	34.78	37.27	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.01
California	P12	0.04	0.03	75.00	74.62	0.02	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.04	0.03	27.27	35.05	-0.02	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.04	0.03	30.43	29.49	-0.02	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.04	0.03	14.29	17.12	-0.03	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.04	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.04	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.04	0.03	72.00	72.22	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.00	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.04	0.03	9.52	13.17	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.03	86.96	83.30	0.03	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.04	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.00	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.04	0.03	72.22	63.23	0.02	0.01