Old Dominion

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	318.0
Current RPI:	318
Expected SOS:	187
Current SOS:	187
Current Record:	5-25
Expected Record:	5-25
Current Conf Record:	3-15
Expected Conf Record:	3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-10
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	292
Expected OOC SOS:	115

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-25	318.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	H	45-46	L	0%
11-10	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	72-61	W	100%
11-11	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	70-79	L	0%
11-17	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	67-55	L	0%
11-21	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	71-76	L	0%
11-24	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	A	79-72	L	0%
12-1	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	A	71-62	L	0%
12-4	Richmond (92.0)	A10	H	53-80	L	0%
12-7	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	H	70-83	L	0%
12-14	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	H	71-75	L	0%
12-18	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	76-65	L	0%
12-22	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	N	63-61	W	100%
12-29	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	54-55	L	0%
1-2	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	55-58	L	0%
1-5	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	72-84	L	0%
1-10	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	71-46	L	0%
1-16	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	65-60	L	0%
1-19	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	54-69	L	0%
1-26	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	56-46	L	0%
1-30	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	66-68	L	0%
2-2	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	83-63	L	0%
2-4	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	H	74-85	L	0%
2-7	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	A	66-78	W	100%
2-9	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	74-79	L	0%
2-11	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	75-73	L	0%
2-16	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	62-74	L	0%
2-20	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	84-61	W	100%
2-24	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	A	70-59	L	0%
2-28	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	77-81	L	0%
3-2	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	74-81	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Old Dominion	CAA	26.23	26.23	15.62	15.62	-18.04	-18.04
James Madison	CAA	4.31	4.31	56.25	56.25	0.54	0.54
George Mason	CAA	4.24	4.24	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
Northeastern	CAA	4.22	4.22	63.33	63.33	1.12	1.12
Delaware	CAA	4.19	4.19	54.84	54.84	0.41	0.41
William & Mary	CAA	4.15	4.15	37.04	37.04	-1.08	-1.08
Drexel	CAA	4.15	4.15	41.38	41.38	-0.72	-0.72
NC Wilmington	CAA	4.10	4.10	29.63	29.63	-1.67	-1.67
Georgia St.	CAA	4.08	4.08	42.86	42.86	-0.58	-0.58
Hofstra	CAA	2.58	2.58	16.67	16.67	-1.72	-1.72
Towson	CAA	2.55	2.55	55.17	55.17	0.26	0.26
Richmond	A10	1.93	1.93	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Virginia	ACC	1.82	1.82	67.74	67.74	0.65	0.65
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.78	1.78	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Fairfield	MAAC	1.75	1.75	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
Texas San Antonio	WAC	1.72	1.72	29.03	29.03	-0.72	-0.72
Holy Cross	Pat	1.72	1.72	37.93	37.93	-0.41	-0.41
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	1.72	1.72	75.76	75.76	0.89	0.89
College of Charleston	SC	1.69	1.69	71.88	71.88	0.74	0.74
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	1.69	1.69	37.04	37.04	-0.44	-0.44
Central Florida	CUSA	1.67	1.67	60.71	60.71	0.36	0.36
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.67	1.67	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Murray St.	OVC	1.67	1.67	64.29	64.29	0.48	0.48
Hampton	MEAC	0.24	0.24	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Davidson	SC	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Radford	BSth	0.20	0.20	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.18	0.18	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.18	0.18	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Rider	MAAC	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.16	0.16	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Wofford	SC	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Duke	ACC	0.16	0.16	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
NC Greensboro	SC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Temple	A10	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.11	0.11	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01