live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Old Dominion

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:46.0
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:146
Current SOS:146
Current Record:24-7
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-746.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH76-56W100%0.0
11-18Richmond (56.0)A10H63-57W100%0.0
11-21LSU (57.0)SECN70-61W100%0.0
11-23Illinois St. (62.0)MVCN64-45L0%0.0
11-24Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthN58-46W100%0.0
11-29VCU (15.0)A10H73-67W100%0.0
12-3George Mason (221.0)A10A69-75W100%0.0
12-14North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH85-48W100%0.0
12-17Georgia St. (53.0)SBH58-54W100%0.0
12-19Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH60-43W100%0.0
12-22William & Mary (93.0)CAAH69-62W100%0.0
12-29Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH69-35W100%0.0
1-4Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA54-61W100%0.0
1-8Marshall (296.0)CUSAA51-72W100%0.0
1-10Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA72-65L0%0.0
1-15Rice (247.0)CUSAH63-53W100%0.0
1-17North Texas (224.0)CUSAH61-50W100%0.0
1-22Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA68-58L0%0.0
1-24UAB (130.0)CUSAA81-68L0%0.0
1-29FIU (217.0)CUSAH71-56W100%0.0
1-31Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH68-57W100%0.0
2-7Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH61-57W100%0.0
2-12UTSA (237.0)CUSAA72-67L0%0.0
2-14UTEP (78.0)CUSAA62-47L0%0.0
2-19Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH64-38W100%0.0
2-21Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH72-53W100%0.0
2-26Rice (247.0)CUSAA54-63W100%0.0
2-28North Texas (224.0)CUSAA57-70W100%0.0
3-5Marshall (296.0)CUSAH67-50W100%0.0
3-7Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH75-52W100%0.0
3-12Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAN52-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Old DominionCUSA26.1326.1379.3479.3415.3315.33
CharlotteCUSA3.973.9746.6746.67-0.26-0.26
RiceCUSA3.943.9437.0437.04-1.02-1.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.923.9250.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA3.923.9260.7160.710.840.84
MarshallCUSA3.893.8932.1432.14-1.39-1.39
North TexasCUSA3.893.8944.4444.44-0.43-0.43
UABCUSA2.432.4353.1253.120.150.15
UTEPCUSA2.362.3667.7467.740.840.84
FIUCUSA2.362.3646.6746.67-0.16-0.16
Louisiana TechCUSA2.332.3377.4277.421.281.28
UTSACUSA2.312.3140.7440.74-0.43-0.43
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.292.2926.9226.92-1.06-1.06
Southern MissCUSA2.292.2926.9226.92-1.06-1.06
VCUA101.791.7976.4776.470.950.95
RichmondA101.761.7661.2961.290.400.40
William & MaryCAA1.751.7562.0762.070.420.42
George MasonA101.711.7127.5927.59-0.77-0.77
LSUSEC1.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.691.6924.1424.14-0.87-0.87
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
Illinois St.MVC1.661.6661.2961.290.370.37
Georgia St.SB1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
Gardner WebbBSth1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.260.2627.2727.27-0.12-0.12
DavidsonA100.250.2576.6776.670.130.13
ElonCAA0.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1590.9190.910.120.12
FordhamA100.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
HowardMEAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
St. BonaventureA100.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
BelmontOVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
AkronMAC0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
DaytonA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
TroySB0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02