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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Old Dominion

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:78.0
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:166
Current SOS:28
Current Record:4-1
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:4-1
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:136



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-117.00.03%
28-222.40.25%
27-328.71.48%
26-437.14.86%
25-546.09.86%
24-656.716.01%
23-768.917.89%
22-882.918.26%
21-996.614.55%
20-10110.89.18%
19-11127.14.56%
18-12143.01.90%
17-13160.70.85%
16-14176.10.23%
15-15195.00.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UNC Wilmington (170.3)CAAH76-56W100%0.0
11-18Richmond (63.1)A10H63-57W100%0.0
11-21LSU (91.2)SECN70-61W100%0.0
11-23Illinois St. (77.1)MVCN64-45L0%0.0
11-24Gardner Webb (127.0)BSthN58-46W100%0.0
11-29VCU (24.0)A10H0-043%-2.3
12-3George Mason (224.1)A10A0-073%7.4
12-14North Carolina A&T (319.2)MEACH0-096%21.7
12-17Georgia St. (87.2)SBH0-069%6.1
12-19Maryland Eastern Shore (321.6)MEACH0-097%21.9
12-22William & Mary (119.8)CAAH0-077%9.0
12-29Mount St. Mary's (281.4)NECH0-095%19.2
1-4Charlotte (75.4)CUSAA0-037%-3.9
1-8Marshall (190.0)CUSAA0-063%3.9
1-10Western Kentucky (175.5)CUSAA0-062%3.8
1-15Rice (273.6)CUSAH0-093%17.6
1-17North Texas (225.4)CUSAH0-089%14.8
1-22Middle Tennessee (167.0)CUSAA0-061%3.3
1-24UAB (209.5)CUSAA0-068%5.5
1-29FIU (238.9)CUSAH0-090%15.4
1-31Florida Atlantic (245.9)CUSAH0-088%14.1
2-7Charlotte (75.4)CUSAH0-061%3.3
2-12UTSA (296.6)CUSAA0-081%10.5
2-14UTEP (95.4)CUSAA0-045%-1.6
2-19Southern Miss (155.5)CUSAH0-080%10.3
2-21Louisiana Tech (75.1)CUSAH0-060%3.2
2-26Rice (273.6)CUSAA0-081%10.4
2-28North Texas (225.4)CUSAA0-074%7.6
3-5Marshall (190.0)CUSAH0-082%11.1
3-7Western Kentucky (175.5)CUSAH0-082%11.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Old DominionCUSA31.1726.1776.1972.6916.3311.88
CharlotteCUSA0.004.0860.0068.530.001.51
RiceCUSA0.004.0125.0029.91-0.00-1.61
North TexasCUSA0.003.9975.0040.750.00-0.74
MarshallCUSA0.003.9850.0046.780.00-0.26
Western KentuckyCUSA0.003.9840.0046.40-0.00-0.29
UTEPCUSA0.002.38100.0069.750.000.94
UTSACUSA0.002.3833.3330.96-0.00-0.91
FIUCUSA0.002.3833.3338.70-0.00-0.54
UABCUSA0.002.3720.0038.15-0.00-0.56
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.370.0040.44-0.00-0.45
Southern MissCUSA0.002.3766.6752.960.000.14
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.3280.0073.540.001.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.3266.6750.560.000.03
VCUA100.001.8380.0073.920.000.88
William & MaryCAA0.001.8275.0056.250.000.23
RichmondA1010.001.8166.6766.103.330.58
George MasonA100.001.7720.0022.00-0.00-0.99
LSUSEC11.001.7675.0058.145.500.29
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.001.7514.2931.77-0.00-0.64
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.750.0029.51-0.00-0.72
UNC WilmingtonCAA10.001.73100.0048.8410.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC10.001.7233.3363.19-3.330.45
Georgia St.SB0.001.7060.0069.590.000.67
Gardner WebbBSth11.001.6950.0060.660.000.36
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.001.6925.0037.24-0.00-0.43
College of CharlestonCAA1.000.2640.0053.54-0.200.02
DavidsonA100.000.2566.6764.030.000.07
George WashingtonA100.000.2275.0069.240.000.08
ElonCAA0.000.2140.0039.26-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.18100.0078.390.000.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1740.0033.19-0.00-0.06
Saint LouisA100.000.1775.0046.860.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1750.0052.250.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1520.0036.57-0.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.1580.0046.880.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1580.0067.100.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1425.0053.73-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1425.0039.20-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.140.0040.20-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1450.0036.580.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.1425.0045.04-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.14100.0077.870.000.08
St. BonaventureA100.000.1475.0052.070.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.120.0040.56-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.120.0019.53-0.00-0.07
HofstraCAA0.000.1260.0068.830.000.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1280.0057.880.000.02
High PointBSth1.250.1275.0056.960.620.02
RadfordBSth1.250.1225.0046.52-0.62-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1233.3367.57-0.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1280.0075.550.000.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0019.02-0.00-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1133.3358.80-0.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1160.0062.400.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.1166.6756.430.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0053.040.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.11100.0068.860.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.110.0036.05-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.1183.3348.340.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.11100.0053.990.000.01
FordhamA100.000.110.0026.23-0.00-0.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3366.830.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1150.0028.400.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0078.880.000.06
CampbellBSth0.000.090.0035.96-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0076.220.000.05
MinnesotaB100.000.0950.0055.020.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0950.0042.050.00-0.01
Seton HallBE2.250.09100.0063.122.250.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0052.73-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0980.0079.440.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0060.400.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0975.0057.260.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0920.0043.38-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0018.96-0.00-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0030.59-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0950.0031.400.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0966.6748.060.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.090.0044.27-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0079.690.000.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0031.24-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0067.79-0.000.03
Texas TechB121.000.0975.0045.180.50-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0066.680.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.090.0044.60-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0925.0047.85-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0825.0049.53-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0825.0045.71-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0850.0051.380.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0825.0043.61-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6739.60-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0036.81-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0825.0052.42-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0860.0037.710.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0875.0071.300.000.04
La SalleA100.000.08100.0056.910.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0866.6746.480.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0023.72-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0625.0036.27-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0054.380.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0079.050.000.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6753.030.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0633.3363.17-0.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0022.33-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0070.920.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0625.0022.65-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3353.65-0.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.36-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0680.0074.090.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.32-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0037.69-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0029.60-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.46-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0068.20-0.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0620.0039.02-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0059.990.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0660.0068.620.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0069.610.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0023.49-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.550.000.01
ClemsonACC2.000.0660.0050.620.400.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0660.0056.890.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.36-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.72-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0054.85-0.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0023.91-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0069.010.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3338.66-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0660.0040.420.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.20-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0633.3348.21-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.15-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3347.83-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0033.76-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.94-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0044.93-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0083.180.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0048.990.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.35-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.47-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3335.76-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0062.000.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6741.200.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.440.000.00
Weber St.BSky2.250.0625.0052.78-1.130.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.540.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.500.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0053.140.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0540.0030.22-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC1.250.05100.0064.841.250.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0580.0063.370.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0575.0044.850.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0575.0068.660.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0075.980.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0033.90-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.070.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0027.48-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6773.130.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.770.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0047.410.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0035.95-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.54-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.03100.0058.380.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3352.29-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0366.6741.780.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.73-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.100.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.230.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0039.34-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6752.280.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.590.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC1.670.030.0028.00-1.67-0.01
VMISC1.670.0325.0035.97-0.83-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0023.09-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0340.0037.90-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0342.8641.73-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6725.500.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0380.0072.320.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.710.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.480.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3329.78-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0031.76-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0049.08-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.430.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.110.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0380.0070.540.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.470.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC1.250.0360.0055.000.250.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0040.660.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0061.130.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0050.53-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.99-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.950.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.480.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.160.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6758.150.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.66-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.39-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0030.56-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0320.0030.12-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.290.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6754.980.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.020.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.45-0.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0027.48-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0073.330.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0035.980.00-0.01