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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Old Dominion

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:140.0
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:185
Current SOS:185
Current Record:22-13
Expected Record:22-13
Current Conf Record:15-7
Expected Conf Record:15-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:176
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-13140.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Niagara (315.0)MAACH67-50W100%0.0
11-16Buffalo (90.0)MACH77-58W100%0.0
11-18Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH79-48W100%0.0
11-21Purdue (15.0)B10N39-61L0%0.0
11-22Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10N66-64L0%0.0
11-28VCU (37.0)A10A76-67L0%0.0
12-1William & Mary (67.0)CAAA55-48L0%0.0
12-4Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH82-38W100%0.0
12-12Georgia St. (180.0)SBA68-64L0%0.0
12-16Richmond (121.0)A10A77-61L0%0.0
12-18Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH77-47W100%0.0
12-22Rhode Island (119.0)A10H71-65W100%0.0
12-29Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH68-57W100%0.0
1-2Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH74-65W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA53-56W100%0.0
1-9Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA73-71L0%0.0
1-14UAB (88.0)CUSAH71-72L0%0.0
1-16Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH61-64L0%0.0
1-21Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH68-62W100%0.0
1-23Marshall (128.0)CUSAH75-78L0%0.0
1-28Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAA66-78W100%0.0
1-30FIU (270.0)CUSAA60-64W100%0.0
2-6Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA69-74W100%0.0
2-11North Texas (295.0)CUSAH67-47W100%0.0
2-13Rice (279.0)CUSAH66-75L0%0.0
2-18Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA56-59W100%0.0
2-20Marshall (128.0)CUSAA82-65L0%0.0
2-25UTEP (215.0)CUSAH74-53W100%0.0
2-27UTSA (347.0)CUSAH78-56W100%0.0
3-3North Texas (295.0)CUSAA70-76W100%0.0
3-5Rice (279.0)CUSAA67-74W100%0.0
3-9Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAN72-46W100%0.0
3-10Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAN52-68W100%0.0
3-11Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAN89-77W100%0.0
3-12Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAN55-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Old DominionCUSA26.2626.2662.1162.116.366.36
Western KentuckyCUSA4.954.9555.1755.170.510.51
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.663.6668.9768.971.391.39
CharlotteCUSA3.623.6245.1645.16-0.35-0.35
MarshallCUSA3.573.5748.3948.39-0.12-0.12
North TexasCUSA3.553.5535.7135.71-1.01-1.01
RiceCUSA3.533.5332.1432.14-1.26-1.26
Louisiana TechCUSA3.493.4975.0075.001.741.74
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.483.4824.1424.14-1.80-1.80
UABCUSA2.232.2380.0080.001.341.34
UTEPCUSA2.172.1758.0658.060.350.35
UTSACUSA2.132.1313.7913.79-1.54-1.54
Southern MissCUSA2.122.1223.0823.08-1.14-1.14
FIUCUSA2.102.1037.9337.93-0.51-0.51
VCUA101.611.6169.7069.700.630.63
Saint Joseph'sA101.601.6078.7978.790.920.92
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.591.5930.0030.00-0.64-0.64
Morgan St.MEAC1.571.5727.5927.59-0.70-0.70
Norfolk St.MEAC1.551.5550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB1.521.5248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC1.521.5217.2417.24-1.00-1.00
Rhode IslandA101.511.5154.8454.840.150.15
RichmondA101.511.5148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC1.471.4759.3859.380.280.28
NiagaraMAAC1.451.4522.5822.58-0.79-0.79
PurdueB101.431.4375.7675.760.740.74
William & MaryCAA1.431.4360.7160.710.310.31
UT ArlingtonSB0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
HamptonMEAC0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.2134.4834.48-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
DavidsonA100.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
HowardMEAC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
FordhamA100.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
MassachusettsA100.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.09-0.09
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
George WashingtonA100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
TroySB0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1422.2222.22-0.08-0.08
OhioMAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
MarylandB100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
MichiganB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
George MasonA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Saint LouisA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
AmericanPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
PennIvy0.040.0437.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
BrownIvy0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0479.4179.410.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0465.5265.520.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0477.7877.780.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0478.1278.120.020.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
IowaB100.040.0467.7467.740.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.010.01