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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Old Dominion

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:170.0
Current RPI:170
Expected SOS:142
Current SOS:142
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:223
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17170.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH67-79L0%0.0
11-13Howard (323.0)MEACH77-57W100%0.0
11-15Murray St. (142.0)OVCH70-60W100%0.0
11-21Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH69-51W100%0.0
11-23Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH86-69W100%0.0
11-26West Virginia (88.0)B12N60-78L0%0.0
11-27Saint Louis (27.0)A10N62-52L0%0.0
12-3North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH69-76L0%0.0
12-8VCU (13.0)A10A69-48L0%0.0
12-14Georgia St. (76.0)SBA79-73L0%0.0
12-18College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH44-51L0%0.0
12-21UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA57-69W100%0.0
12-28Richmond (75.0)A10A67-58L0%0.0
1-1William & Mary (119.0)CAAA74-68L0%0.0
1-4George Mason (164.0)A10H71-66W100%0.0
1-11East Carolina (216.0)CUSAA70-81W100%0.0
1-16FIU (202.0)CUSAA36-52W100%0.0
1-18Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA60-65W100%0.0
1-23Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH60-75L0%0.0
1-25Tulane (223.0)CUSAH70-64W100%0.0
1-30UAB (152.0)CUSAA75-66L0%0.0
2-1Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA64-48L0%0.0
2-6UTSA (306.0)CUSAH69-61W100%0.0
2-8UTEP (103.0)CUSAH49-63L0%0.0
2-13North Texas (195.0)CUSAA62-72W100%0.0
2-15Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA76-37L0%0.0
2-20Rice (299.0)CUSAH55-51W100%0.0
2-22Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH66-71L0%0.0
2-27Marshall (276.0)CUSAH70-63W100%0.0
3-2Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA74-63L0%0.0
3-6East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH68-47W100%0.0
3-12Marshall (276.0)CUSAN73-58W100%0.0
3-13Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAN62-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Old DominionCUSA25.9725.9746.3646.36-1.89-1.89
MarshallCUSA3.563.5631.0331.03-1.35-1.35
East CarolinaCUSA3.533.5348.1548.15-0.13-0.13
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.513.5168.9768.971.331.33
TulsaCUSA2.092.0962.5062.500.520.52
CharlotteCUSA2.072.0753.3353.330.140.14
UTEPCUSA2.052.0566.6766.670.680.68
Louisiana TechCUSA2.042.0478.1278.121.151.15
UTSACUSA2.042.0423.0823.08-1.10-1.10
UABCUSA2.042.0453.5753.570.150.15
Southern MissCUSA2.042.0480.0080.001.221.22
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.022.0227.5927.59-0.90-0.90
TulaneCUSA2.022.0251.6151.610.070.07
North TexasCUSA2.022.0246.4346.43-0.14-0.14
FIUCUSA1.991.9948.1548.15-0.07-0.07
RiceCUSA1.991.9918.5218.52-1.25-1.25
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.711.7124.1424.14-0.89-0.89
William & MaryCAA1.711.7160.0060.000.340.34
College of CharlestonCAA1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Georgia St.SB1.671.6773.3373.330.780.78
VCUA101.661.6675.7675.760.850.85
RichmondA101.661.6656.2556.250.210.21
West VirginiaB121.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
Saint LouisA101.631.6380.0080.000.980.98
Georgia SouthernSC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
HowardMEAC1.611.6120.0020.00-0.97-0.97
PresbyterianBSth1.611.6113.7913.79-1.17-1.17
George MasonA101.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Murray St.OVC1.561.5661.5461.540.360.36
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.561.5683.3383.331.041.04
Missouri St.MVC1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
NortheasternCAA0.270.2734.3834.38-0.08-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.220.2225.8125.81-0.11-0.11
HofstraCAA0.220.2230.3030.30-0.09-0.09
DelawareCAA0.200.2073.5373.530.090.09
DuquesneA100.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckySB0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
DrexelCAA0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.170.17100.00100.000.170.17
DaytonA100.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
George WashingtonA100.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ElonSC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
FurmanSC0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
MassachusettsA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
VMIBSth0.100.1055.5655.560.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1093.1093.100.090.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
La SalleA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
TroySB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00