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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Old Dominion

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:138.0
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:182
Current SOS:182
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:132
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12138.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11James Madison (255.0)CAAH62-55W100%0.0
11-14Richmond (80.0)A10A61-64W100%0.0
11-23Louisville (7.0)ACCN62-68L0%0.0
11-24LSU (193.0)SECN60-66L0%0.0
11-25St. John's (140.0)BEN63-55W100%0.0
11-30Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH59-47W100%0.0
12-3Towson (88.0)CAAA58-60W100%0.0
12-6Rhode Island (31.0)A10A51-39L0%0.0
12-10VCU (22.0)A10H64-67L0%0.0
12-18Georgia St. (104.0)SBH58-46W100%0.0
12-22Howard (337.0)MEACH65-46W100%0.0
12-29William & Mary (110.0)CAAH54-65L0%0.0
12-31Rice (167.0)CUSAH62-56W100%0.0
1-2North Texas (339.0)CUSAH55-48W100%0.0
1-5Marshall (112.0)CUSAA90-86L0%0.0
1-7Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA67-79W100%0.0
1-12Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH54-50W100%0.0
1-14Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH63-75L0%0.0
1-21Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA74-72L0%0.0
1-26Rice (167.0)CUSAA72-80W100%0.0
1-28North Texas (339.0)CUSAA67-73W100%0.0
2-2FIU (338.0)CUSAH64-57W100%0.0
2-4Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH61-65L0%0.0
2-9Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA64-51L0%0.0
2-11UAB (201.0)CUSAA62-83W100%0.0
2-18Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH72-48W100%0.0
2-23Marshall (112.0)CUSAH86-65W100%0.0
2-25Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH67-53W100%0.0
3-2UTEP (222.0)CUSAA61-62W100%0.0
3-4UTSA (264.0)CUSAA73-55L0%0.0
3-9Marshall (112.0)CUSAN63-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Old DominionCUSA26.1726.1760.0060.005.235.23
MarshallCUSA5.505.5054.8454.840.530.53
CharlotteCUSA3.953.9540.7440.74-0.73-0.73
RiceCUSA3.923.9268.9768.971.491.49
Western KentuckyCUSA3.883.8850.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA3.833.8323.0823.08-2.06-2.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.462.4687.5087.501.851.85
Louisiana TechCUSA2.372.3766.6766.670.790.79
UABCUSA2.372.3751.6151.610.080.08
Southern MissCUSA2.352.3525.0025.00-1.17-1.17
UTEPCUSA2.302.3046.6746.67-0.15-0.15
UTSACUSA2.302.3036.6736.67-0.61-0.61
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.282.2825.9325.93-1.10-1.10
FIUCUSA2.212.2117.8617.86-1.42-1.42
James MadisonCAA1.851.8529.0329.03-0.78-0.78
VCUA101.841.8475.7675.760.950.95
William & MaryCAA1.761.7650.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA101.741.7471.8871.880.760.76
RichmondA101.731.7364.5264.520.500.50
TowsonCAA1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
LSUSEC1.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
LouisvilleACC1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
DartmouthIvy1.641.6426.9226.92-0.76-0.76
Georgia St.SB1.641.6462.0762.070.400.40
HowardMEAC1.641.6425.8125.81-0.79-0.79
St. John'sBE1.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
ElonCAA0.270.2753.3353.330.020.02
DrexelCAA0.240.2425.8125.81-0.12-0.12
College of CharlestonCAA0.230.2372.7372.730.110.11
DavidsonA100.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.210.2184.3884.380.140.14
George WashingtonA100.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
George MasonA100.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
Texas TechB120.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
HofstraCAA0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
DelawareCAA0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
MarylandB100.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
MassachusettsA100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
ToledoMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
AuburnSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
HartfordAE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0861.5461.540.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
BrownIvy0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
UMBCAE0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01