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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Old Dominion

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:102.4
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:184
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:115



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-327.00.01%
26-431.00.09%
25-540.70.77%
24-649.12.37%
23-759.66.81%
22-871.312.03%
21-985.117.80%
20-1099.119.40%
19-11114.516.75%
18-12130.912.17%
17-13148.46.92%
16-14166.23.36%
15-15182.51.10%
14-16203.50.36%
13-17211.50.04%
11-19266.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11James Madison (264.0)CAAH62-55W100%0.0
11-14Richmond (173.6)A10A61-64W100%0.0
11-23Louisville (7.5)ACCN62-68L0%0.0
11-24LSU (101.1)SECN60-66L0%0.0
11-25St. John's (157.6)BEN63-55W100%0.0
11-30Dartmouth (319.6)IvyH59-47W100%0.0
12-3Towson (154.9)CAAA58-60W100%0.0
12-6Rhode Island (34.2)A10A51-39L0%0.0
12-10VCU (43.9)A10H0-040%-3.1
12-18Georgia St. (101.8)SBH0-063%3.9
12-22Howard (267.2)MEACH0-089%14.8
12-29William & Mary (171.5)CAAH0-074%7.9
12-31Rice (96.6)CUSAH0-059%2.7
1-2North Texas (294.9)CUSAH0-092%16.7
1-5Marshall (120.3)CUSAA0-051%0.4
1-7Western Kentucky (249.8)CUSAA0-072%6.8
1-12Southern Miss (332.1)CUSAH0-097%22.3
1-14Louisiana Tech (95.6)CUSAH0-052%0.5
1-21Charlotte (185.0)CUSAA0-060%3.0
1-26Rice (96.6)CUSAA0-038%-3.5
1-28North Texas (294.9)CUSAA0-081%10.5
2-2FIU (266.6)CUSAH0-085%12.3
2-4Florida Atlantic (237.1)CUSAH0-082%11.0
2-9Middle Tennessee (51.6)CUSAA0-031%-5.8
2-11UAB (137.2)CUSAA0-042%-2.5
2-18Charlotte (185.0)CUSAH0-078%9.2
2-23Marshall (120.3)CUSAH0-071%6.7
2-25Western Kentucky (249.8)CUSAH0-086%13.1
3-2UTEP (289.2)CUSAA0-074%7.8
3-4UTSA (303.1)CUSAA0-078%9.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Old DominionCUSA28.2826.1565.7965.718.938.22
CharlotteCUSA0.394.0562.5052.130.100.17
RiceCUSA0.394.0075.0071.990.201.76
North TexasCUSA0.003.9733.3332.71-0.00-1.37
Western KentuckyCUSA0.003.9737.5035.99-0.00-1.11
MarshallCUSA0.003.9762.5054.600.000.37
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.4187.5075.970.001.25
Southern MissCUSA0.452.3920.0017.94-0.27-1.53
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.3757.1473.390.001.11
UABCUSA0.002.3650.0059.890.000.47
UTSACUSA0.002.3125.0030.18-0.00-0.91
UTEPCUSA0.002.3120.0035.83-0.00-0.65
FIUCUSA0.002.3014.2935.76-0.00-0.66
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.3028.5739.73-0.00-0.47
James MadisonCAA6.251.9314.2931.21-4.46-0.72
VCUA100.791.8675.0073.350.400.87
William & MaryCAA0.391.8333.3346.85-0.13-0.12
TowsonCAA6.251.7850.0055.650.000.20
Rhode IslandA106.771.7862.5069.381.690.69
RichmondA106.251.7857.1450.170.890.01
LSUSEC6.251.7366.6745.892.08-0.14
LouisvilleACC6.251.7085.7174.884.460.84
DartmouthIvy6.601.690.0021.52-6.60-0.97
Georgia St.SB0.001.6950.0062.230.000.41
HowardMEAC0.001.6916.6744.70-0.00-0.18
St. John'sBE6.251.6950.0037.400.00-0.43
ElonCAA0.000.2662.5054.660.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.2350.0041.460.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.2271.4362.990.000.06
HofstraCAA0.000.2055.5643.870.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.2087.5061.660.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2066.6761.690.000.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.2083.3377.290.000.11
George WashingtonA100.000.1955.5642.150.00-0.03
George MasonA100.840.1962.5046.490.21-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.1750.0041.700.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.1744.4443.25-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.350.1712.5037.11-0.26-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.390.1777.7855.180.220.02
PittsburghACC0.000.1775.0048.980.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1750.0050.980.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.1571.4357.210.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1575.0047.520.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1516.6730.09-0.00-0.06
MarylandB100.840.1487.5059.030.630.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1462.5074.160.000.07
MassachusettsA100.000.1471.4358.170.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.390.1450.0066.380.000.05
DaytonA100.000.1471.4373.270.000.06
FordhamA100.000.1450.0041.640.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1242.8650.33-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.390.1271.4363.080.170.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.120.0034.54-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC1.360.1157.1429.760.19-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1185.7157.280.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0020.63-0.00-0.07
ToledoMAC0.000.1137.5047.57-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.1157.1456.540.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1142.8645.34-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.350.1157.1464.500.050.03
OhioMAC0.000.1183.3371.500.000.05
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0942.8643.78-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0933.3349.39-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0922.2226.44-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0013.32-0.00-0.07
BrownIvy0.350.0950.0043.770.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0044.180.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0962.5067.590.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0920.0060.00-0.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0957.1471.170.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0942.8643.55-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0023.62-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0914.2943.08-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.390.0914.2942.77-0.28-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0977.7872.930.000.04
TroySB0.000.0942.8636.07-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0920.0042.14-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0977.7862.010.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.83-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.350.0990.0080.060.280.05
Montana St.BSky0.390.0942.8656.48-0.060.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0078.180.000.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0925.0055.44-0.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.350.0887.5082.440.260.05
UMBCAE0.000.0880.0054.190.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0812.5033.31-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.350.0850.0042.750.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0855.5647.600.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0850.0045.920.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0877.7864.250.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0840.0039.19-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0825.0023.99-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0875.0070.350.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0862.5044.840.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.350.0877.7859.940.190.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0089.590.000.06
SyracuseACC0.000.0862.5062.080.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.43-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.0633.3356.66-0.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.63-0.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.75-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0687.5050.250.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.15-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0688.8967.470.000.02
TulaneAmer0.350.0612.5023.82-0.26-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.910.0620.0021.92-0.55-0.03
MaristMAAC0.870.0644.4434.60-0.10-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0662.5052.400.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0677.7866.740.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0042.78-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0637.5050.92-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0657.1457.780.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.390.0677.7877.640.220.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.0625.0041.19-0.22-0.01
North FloridaASun0.450.0612.5034.49-0.33-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.350.0612.5031.01-0.26-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.740.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0687.5069.040.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0675.0074.590.000.03
HoustonAmer0.450.0675.0075.180.220.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.840.0630.0045.49-0.33-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.02-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.390.0550.0045.130.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0587.5082.220.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.840.0577.7886.650.470.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0533.3336.67-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.390.05100.0076.070.390.03
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.830.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.540.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0557.1436.370.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.98-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0076.970.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0054.480.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0562.5042.780.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0084.740.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.0588.8978.430.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.140.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.880.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0571.4337.680.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.260.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2246.51-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0064.910.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.520.0362.5055.890.130.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0342.8650.82-0.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0314.2923.40-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0362.5062.120.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0328.5724.39-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.120.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.130.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1120.27-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5052.060.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.29-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0312.5028.64-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0387.5064.760.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0357.1443.930.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3351.98-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.76-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8644.89-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3351.57-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0342.8640.38-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.38-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0337.5038.08-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.90-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.390.0370.0070.530.160.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.99-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.44-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8977.470.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.85-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0056.270.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.88-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.450.0337.5043.19-0.11-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.350.0385.7175.250.250.01
VMISC0.390.030.0016.56-0.39-0.02
WoffordSC0.450.030.0034.69-0.45-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.350.0325.0043.29-0.17-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.390.0342.8658.24-0.060.00
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.390.030.0038.43-0.39-0.01
Michigan St.B100.350.0360.0058.780.070.00
MinnesotaB100.350.0388.8966.920.270.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01