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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Oklahoma St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:89.5
Current RPI:227
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:284
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:162



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-43.00.01%
23-58.00.01%
22-611.70.03%
21-711.30.27%
20-818.20.59%
19-923.21.70%
18-1032.33.97%
17-1142.27.85%
16-1254.711.56%
15-1369.715.27%
14-1485.717.16%
13-15103.916.33%
12-16123.411.62%
11-17143.17.68%
10-18164.73.76%
9-19183.61.53%
8-20205.50.50%
7-21232.20.10%
6-22229.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southeastern Louisiana (274.8)SlndH83-55W100%0.0
11-16Prairie View A&M (306.5)SWACH74-52W100%0.0
11-21Milwaukee (279.9)HorzH0-089%14.9
11-24Oregon St. (193.4)P12N0-068%5.6
12-3North Texas (192.4)CUSAH0-085%12.4
12-6South Carolina (75.7)SECA0-032%-5.5
12-13Memphis (60.1)AmerA0-032%-5.6
12-16Middle Tennessee (167.7)CUSAH0-081%10.5
12-21Maryland (44.4)B10H0-047%-0.9
12-30Missouri (88.2)SECN0-048%-0.7
1-3Kansas St. (67.8)B12H0-053%1.0
1-6Iowa St. (53.2)B12A0-028%-7.0
1-10Texas (3.7)B12H0-021%-9.5
1-13Kansas (26.9)B12A0-024%-8.4
1-17Oklahoma (48.1)B12A0-027%-7.3
1-21Texas Tech (168.5)B12H0-075%8.0
1-24Kansas St. (67.8)B12A0-030%-6.2
1-27Baylor (25.2)B12H0-042%-2.4
1-31Oklahoma (48.1)B12H0-049%-0.2
2-4Texas (3.7)B12A0-08%-16.7
2-7Kansas (26.9)B12H0-046%-1.3
2-9Baylor (25.2)B12A0-021%-9.6
2-14TCU (161.5)B12A0-047%-1.0
2-18Iowa St. (53.2)B12H0-051%0.2
2-21West Virginia (32.7)B12H0-047%-1.0
2-28Texas Tech (168.5)B12A0-053%0.8
3-4TCU (161.5)B12H0-070%6.2
3-7West Virginia (32.7)B12A0-025%-8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oklahoma St.B1235.4226.42100.0046.7235.42-1.74
BaylorB120.004.64100.0070.470.001.90
Texas TechB120.004.6250.0045.660.00-0.40
OklahomaB126.254.6150.0058.150.000.75
TCUB124.174.58100.0055.284.170.48
Iowa St.B120.004.58100.0061.350.001.04
TexasB120.004.55100.0084.290.003.12
KansasB120.004.5550.0059.660.000.88
Kansas St.B120.004.55100.0060.150.000.92
West VirginiaB120.004.55100.0067.270.001.57
Prairie View A&MSWAC25.002.030.0034.61-25.00-0.62
South CarolinaSEC0.001.9466.6757.580.000.29
North TexasCUSA0.001.91100.0049.640.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.001.8866.6753.760.000.14
MemphisAmer0.001.880.0065.32-0.000.58
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd25.001.850.0041.36-25.00-0.32
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.820.0050.35-0.000.01
MarylandB100.001.79100.0068.290.000.65
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.790.0032.26-0.00-0.63
Oregon St.P120.001.79100.0044.960.00-0.18
ArkansasSEC0.000.26100.0074.610.000.13
KentuckySEC0.000.25100.0085.280.000.18
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.250.0016.22-0.00-0.17
AuburnSEC0.000.2250.0037.190.00-0.06
RiceCUSA4.170.2250.0029.910.00-0.09
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2250.0059.620.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.220.0044.87-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1950.0059.510.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.190.0038.86-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.190.0066.74-0.000.06
LSUSEC0.000.18100.0063.440.000.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.180.0052.18-0.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.180.0045.95-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.160.0034.44-0.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.16100.0056.850.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1650.0054.530.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1650.0043.860.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.16100.0041.770.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1650.0055.890.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.160.0021.31-0.00-0.09
UTSACUSA0.000.150.0029.13-0.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.150.0025.25-0.00-0.08
IowaB100.000.1566.6773.790.000.07
UCLAP120.000.13100.0064.410.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.13100.0056.080.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0036.790.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1350.0068.630.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.13100.0048.650.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.1333.3324.67-0.00-0.06
TulsaAmer0.000.1366.6757.250.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.13100.0072.220.000.06
MississippiSEC0.000.1266.6760.300.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1233.3334.62-0.00-0.04
Washington St.P120.000.120.0032.60-0.00-0.04
LafayettePat0.000.1266.6764.300.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.12100.0070.520.000.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.120.0046.51-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.120.0034.19-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1050.0052.080.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.10100.0055.970.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0070.580.000.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0066.730.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.09100.0070.930.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0061.570.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.09100.0044.790.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0035.31-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0950.0067.190.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0035.44-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0950.0053.410.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.090.0041.28-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.090.0055.17-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0950.0063.450.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0065.830.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.090.0033.91-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0057.150.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.370.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0045.740.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.09100.0059.450.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.09100.0055.450.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.090.0051.39-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.09100.0061.020.000.02
VMISC0.000.0950.0044.060.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.090.0040.22-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0029.61-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0750.0051.650.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.070.0053.31-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.070.0066.43-0.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0750.0040.830.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0750.0053.110.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.070.0036.60-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0039.730.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0081.830.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.55-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.68-0.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3335.35-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
USCP120.000.0633.3326.65-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0059.82-0.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0060.94-0.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0046.460.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.05-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0021.38-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0633.3357.17-0.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.86-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0065.390.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0060.93-0.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.640.000.05
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.680.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0058.910.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0035.720.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3364.95-0.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0044.49-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.23-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.320.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0633.3334.10-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3369.45-0.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.020.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0041.47-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.28-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.06100.0057.080.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0043.270.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0033.91-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0650.0065.490.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0060.930.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0050.460.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.020.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0044.770.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.05-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0024.870.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.06100.0064.540.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0034.17-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6739.300.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0066.390.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0056.370.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.060.0058.38-0.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.550.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3343.60-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0034.150.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.74-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0048.12-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6755.190.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0051.780.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3328.81-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.48-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.78-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0035.01-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0046.570.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0350.0040.820.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0048.49-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0052.100.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.03100.0078.150.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0350.0043.510.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0350.0058.740.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0049.930.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.360.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0071.660.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0055.69-0.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0038.380.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.74-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.07-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0027.60-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.690.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3351.93-0.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.06-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.19-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.320.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0070.050.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0046.79-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0036.83-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0067.240.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0062.330.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.58-0.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0044.320.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.880.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0044.27-0.00-0.00