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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Oklahoma St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:120.3
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:26
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.23%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:146
Expected OOC SOS:92



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1364.00.02%
16-1469.90.30%
15-1583.62.33%
14-1697.09.91%
13-17109.925.62%
12-18122.834.58%
11-19136.321.86%
10-20149.85.37%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)SlndH71-39W100%0.0
11-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)SWACH73-46W100%0.0
11-16Texas San Antonio (169.2)SlndH90-85W100%0.0
11-23Stanford (89.9)P12N82-67L0%0.0
11-25Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCN57-59L0%0.0
11-30Tulsa (105.7)CUSAH59-56W100%0.0
12-7Missouri St. (82.4)MVCA67-72W100%0.0
12-10Pittsburgh (74.5)BEN74-68L0%0.0
12-17New Mexico (30.8)MWCN56-66L0%0.0
12-21Alabama (30.4)SECN69-52L0%0.0
12-28Southern Methodist (214.4)CUSAN58-68W100%0.0
12-31Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCH61-67L0%0.0
1-4Texas Tech (233.7)B12H67-59W100%0.0
1-7Texas (58.4)B12A58-49L0%0.0
1-9Oklahoma (89.8)B12H72-65W100%0.0
1-14Baylor (6.8)B12A106-65L0%0.0
1-18Iowa St. (39.6)B12A71-68L0%0.0
1-21Kansas St. (45.9)B12H58-66L0%0.0
1-25Missouri (11.7)B12H79-72W100%0.0
1-28Texas A&M (154.9)B12A76-61L0%0.0
1-31Texas Tech (233.7)B12A63-80W100%0.0
2-4Baylor (6.8)B12H60-64L0%0.0
2-7Iowa St. (39.6)B12H0-043%-1.9
2-11Kansas (8.8)B12A0-05%-17.6
2-15Missouri (11.7)B12A0-08%-15.5
2-18Texas (58.4)B12H0-034%-4.5
2-22Oklahoma (89.8)B12A0-032%-5.0
2-25Texas A&M (154.9)B12H0-067%4.7
2-27Kansas (8.8)B12H0-016%-10.9
3-3Kansas St. (45.9)B12A0-016%-11.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oklahoma St.B1226.4226.3840.8236.61-4.85-7.06
Kansas St.B122.944.2971.4366.571.261.42
Texas TechB125.014.2435.0027.84-1.50-1.88
Texas A&MB122.894.2450.0044.630.00-0.46
Iowa St.B122.684.2272.7367.741.221.50
KansasB120.614.2278.2677.630.352.33
MissouriB122.784.2295.4590.012.533.37
TexasB122.784.2259.0959.880.510.83
BaylorB124.964.2190.0082.693.972.75
OklahomaB122.744.2161.9056.190.650.52
Virginia TechACC4.603.3952.3852.110.220.14
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.531.8619.0521.86-1.57-1.05
TulsaCUSA2.431.7563.6461.090.660.39
Missouri St.MVC2.431.7556.5259.170.320.32
Southern MethodistCUSA2.421.7540.0039.21-0.48-0.38
AlabamaSEC2.321.7266.6768.030.770.62
Texas San AntonioSlnd2.321.7260.0062.920.460.44
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.331.7018.1825.22-1.48-0.84
New MexicoMWC2.321.6980.9580.351.441.03
PittsburghBE2.271.6759.0956.760.410.23
StanfordP122.271.6768.1867.200.830.57
RiceCUSA0.310.3147.6246.46-0.01-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.310.2576.1975.940.160.13
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.260.2347.0650.75-0.020.00
HoustonCUSA0.260.2347.6244.63-0.01-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.260.2226.3229.79-0.12-0.09
Texas El PasoCUSA0.260.2243.4843.31-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.360.2280.7780.750.220.14
West VirginiaBE0.300.2265.2265.170.090.07
Texas ChristianMWC0.200.1757.1449.540.03-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.210.1778.2672.340.120.08
Texas St.Slnd0.160.1722.2227.62-0.09-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.260.1719.0525.52-0.16-0.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.210.1755.0054.480.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.1635.0040.78-0.06-0.03
UCLAP120.100.1654.5556.790.010.02
DukeACC0.100.1686.3683.090.070.11
Colorado St.MWC0.210.1466.6760.800.070.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.200.1427.7829.58-0.09-0.06
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1425.0025.13-0.05-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.1410.0014.93-0.16-0.10
North FloridaASun0.200.1445.8346.68-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1430.4326.44-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1471.4373.350.040.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1470.8364.420.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1185.7178.050.110.06
TulaneCUSA0.100.1161.9058.590.020.02
Washington St.P120.150.1150.0048.170.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1116.6723.02-0.07-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.100.1145.0046.13-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1169.5765.150.040.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.1138.1042.78-0.05-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1156.5254.220.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1134.7832.06-0.03-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.150.1182.6180.420.100.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1125.0023.75-0.08-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.118.7011.67-0.12-0.08
Brigham YoungWCC0.200.1175.0076.000.100.06
CaliforniaP120.100.1175.0074.610.050.05
CincinnatiBE0.150.1169.5765.470.060.03
DePaulBE0.200.1150.0042.830.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.140.1152.1750.090.010.00
GramblingSWAC0.150.1115.0015.73-0.11-0.07
HowardMEAC0.050.1118.1822.22-0.03-0.06
North TexasSB0.150.1150.0050.010.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1162.5061.500.040.03
Oregon St.P120.100.1163.6463.160.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1131.8242.13-0.06-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.200.1147.8343.66-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1180.9577.380.060.06
SyracuseBE0.200.1195.8392.010.180.09
ClemsonACC0.100.1150.0048.360.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.1172.7371.710.040.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1150.0058.160.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.150.1186.9683.160.110.07
Rhode IslandA100.150.1120.8320.60-0.09-0.06
South FloridaBE0.000.1154.5548.600.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.100.1181.8276.800.060.06
FloridaSEC0.050.0982.6177.630.040.05
Fresno St.WAC0.160.0939.1344.52-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.0847.3742.16-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.0869.5768.900.060.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
Arizona St.P120.150.0830.4331.43-0.06-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.0843.4844.25-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0827.7829.87-0.02-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0833.3333.88-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.110.0863.6456.710.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0828.5726.30-0.04-0.04
St. LouisA100.100.0877.2777.670.060.05
TroySB0.160.0828.5730.17-0.07-0.03
CreightonMVC0.140.0887.5085.410.110.06
NorthwesternB100.150.0861.9055.140.040.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.150.0890.9187.740.120.06
North DakotaGWC0.050.0833.3341.31-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0847.6247.18-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0856.5248.810.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.0817.6527.10-0.10-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0828.5734.20-0.02-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0839.1342.12-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0895.8392.570.050.07
MarylandACC0.150.0859.0950.820.030.00
MercerASun0.100.0870.8371.640.040.04
Old DominionCAA0.050.0860.0058.290.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.150.0833.3337.16-0.05-0.02
MichiganB100.100.0872.7366.810.040.03
Notre DameBE0.100.0865.2262.650.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.0856.5250.270.010.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0845.4546.08-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0642.8641.13-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0627.2727.21-0.02-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.068.708.99-0.04-0.05
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0682.6181.440.030.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0676.1970.730.030.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.0671.4366.600.040.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.0644.4441.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.110.0661.9067.230.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0659.0959.720.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0641.1842.61-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0669.5771.510.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0685.7182.180.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.0640.9139.82-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0624.0024.86-0.02-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.100.0647.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0655.0060.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0666.6762.650.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0642.1149.81-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0645.4544.02-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0634.7832.08-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0662.5062.060.020.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0659.0957.280.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0619.0521.29-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0620.0019.96-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0669.5764.530.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0630.0033.20-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0618.1815.01-0.03-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0545.4544.66-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0530.0037.30-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.050.004.02-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.100.0556.0055.650.010.01
DavidsonSC0.000.0576.1976.760.000.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.0552.3852.860.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0540.9138.38-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.000.0536.3639.72-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0572.7364.430.020.02
IowaB100.050.0554.1749.440.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0573.9174.910.020.03
LipscombASun0.050.0543.4843.82-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0578.2672.660.030.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0565.0060.020.000.01
MinnesotaB100.100.0569.5761.310.040.01
MonmouthNEC0.100.0528.0028.91-0.04-0.02
NavyPat0.050.059.5213.19-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0537.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0568.1869.680.040.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.0031.54-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0586.9685.460.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.100.0560.0059.060.020.01
TempleA100.050.0577.2775.060.030.03
TowsonCAA0.000.054.005.26-0.00-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0534.7837.24-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0512.5013.44-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.000.0366.6769.690.000.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0345.0041.76-0.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0331.8233.83-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0327.2726.95-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.800.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0317.3922.00-0.03-0.02
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.01
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
PacificBW0.050.0335.0037.47-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0365.2260.580.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0362.5062.490.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3333.82-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0352.3857.860.000.00
Seattleind0.050.0323.5333.28-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0352.3852.870.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0340.9139.56-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.030.005.37-0.05-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.870.020.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0334.7834.48-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0368.1867.910.020.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0360.0060.420.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.000.0368.1863.990.000.01
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0365.2263.740.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0345.0044.15-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0382.6184.570.030.02