live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Oklahoma St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:139.1
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:73
Current Record:11-12
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:2-8
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:175
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1375.90.11%
17-1490.81.07%
16-15104.26.00%
15-16119.919.47%
14-17135.931.03%
13-18150.927.07%
12-19164.813.16%
11-20178.22.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tennessee Martin (241.1)OVCH91-57W100%0.0
11-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.6)SWACH86-72W100%0.0
11-19Towson (154.0)CAAN52-69W100%0.0
11-20George Mason (184.2)A10N68-71L0%0.0
11-22Long Beach St. (101.3)BWN77-82W100%0.0
11-27Long Beach St. (101.3)BWH79-73W100%0.0
12-2Tulsa (67.0)AmerH56-66L0%0.0
12-5Missouri St. (234.9)MVCH63-64L0%0.0
12-12Minnesota (243.0)B10N60-62W100%0.0
12-15Longwood (318.8)BSthH73-55W100%0.0
12-19Florida (23.8)SECN72-70L0%0.0
12-29UMKC (273.9)WACH61-43W100%0.0
1-2TCU (174.7)B12H69-48W100%0.0
1-5Baylor (30.1)B12A79-62L0%0.0
1-9West Virginia (8.7)B12A77-60L0%0.0
1-13Oklahoma (3.9)B12H72-74L0%0.0
1-16Texas (26.7)B12A74-69L0%0.0
1-19Kansas (6.0)B12H86-67W100%0.0
1-23Kansas St. (59.9)B12A89-73L0%0.0
1-27Baylor (30.1)B12H65-69L0%0.0
1-30Auburn (159.0)SECA63-74W100%0.0
2-3Texas Tech (65.9)B12A63-61L0%0.0
2-6Iowa St. (17.3)B12H59-64L0%0.0
2-8TCU (174.7)B12A0-058%2.3
2-13Kansas St. (59.9)B12H0-052%0.6
2-15Kansas (6.0)B12A0-011%-13.6
2-20Texas Tech (65.9)B12H0-059%2.5
2-24Oklahoma (3.9)B12A0-010%-13.8
2-27West Virginia (8.7)B12H0-023%-7.9
2-29Iowa St. (17.3)B12A0-018%-10.1
3-4Texas (26.7)B12H0-044%-1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oklahoma St.B1226.3126.3641.7539.46-4.34-5.56
Texas TechB122.794.1557.1451.880.400.16
West VirginiaB122.704.1081.8278.941.722.37
Iowa St.B122.704.1072.7368.611.231.52
Kansas St.B122.664.0759.0957.400.480.60
TCUB122.664.0745.4538.36-0.24-0.95
TexasB122.664.0768.1861.570.970.94
BaylorB124.734.0770.0064.111.891.15
KansasB122.664.0785.7179.911.902.43
OklahomaB122.664.0785.7181.191.902.54
Long Beach St.BW4.353.2350.0055.160.000.33
MinnesotaB102.321.7327.2728.78-1.06-0.73
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.271.7221.7424.40-1.28-0.88
Tennessee MartinOVC2.281.7050.0051.940.000.07
FloridaSEC2.271.6963.6464.960.620.51
George MasonA102.271.6731.8231.96-0.83-0.60
UMKCWAC2.271.6730.0034.02-0.91-0.53
Missouri St.MVC2.271.6736.3635.51-0.62-0.48
TulsaAmer2.221.6463.6460.120.610.33
AuburnSEC2.221.6442.8637.87-0.32-0.40
LongwoodBSth2.221.6423.8125.90-1.16-0.79
TowsonCAA2.221.6468.1861.890.810.39
HawaiiBW0.290.2784.2181.670.200.17
VanderbiltSEC0.290.2756.5260.000.040.05
Texas A&MSEC0.290.2678.2678.050.160.15
RichmondA100.240.2154.5554.490.020.02
MississippiSEC0.240.2165.2259.020.070.04
GeorgiaSEC0.240.2161.9056.690.060.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.240.1940.9140.65-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.1765.2268.610.080.06
UC IrvineBW0.150.1672.7371.620.070.07
Oral RobertsSum0.240.1639.1341.12-0.05-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.1677.2776.860.110.09
James MadisonCAA0.190.1670.8369.500.080.06
San Diego St.MWC0.200.1672.7372.030.090.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.190.169.0917.09-0.16-0.10
WashingtonP120.140.1665.2261.070.040.03
Chicago St.WAC0.150.144.357.73-0.13-0.12
BradleyMVC0.190.1412.5012.85-0.14-0.10
HarvardIvy0.150.1335.0038.52-0.04-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1354.1755.080.010.01
VirginiaACC0.190.1382.6178.050.130.07
KentuckySEC0.150.1373.9171.550.070.06
LSUSEC0.150.1365.2260.270.040.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1315.0022.36-0.10-0.07
Saint LouisA100.140.1336.3633.47-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.190.1383.3383.020.130.09
TennesseeSEC0.140.1347.8346.88-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1370.8370.840.060.05
MissouriSEC0.140.1334.7830.36-0.04-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.140.1354.1749.270.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.100.1155.0057.480.010.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.1130.0034.56-0.04-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1135.0032.27-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.1128.5728.54-0.08-0.05
UC DavisBW0.100.1140.0036.77-0.02-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.1145.8341.65-0.01-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.1142.8650.41-0.030.00
IowaB100.100.1182.6180.580.060.07
South DakotaSum0.150.1141.6741.24-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.200.1182.6179.210.130.06
UCLAP120.150.1156.5253.240.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1152.0050.250.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1152.3850.410.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1154.1750.930.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.100.1152.1755.930.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.1173.9172.480.050.05
IllinoisB100.090.1145.8344.11-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.1169.5766.220.040.03
SMUAmer0.090.1190.9186.130.080.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1047.6252.67-0.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1045.4554.11-0.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.1082.6178.690.060.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0914.2915.46-0.07-0.06
SeattleWAC0.150.0947.6244.99-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.0921.7423.66-0.06-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0976.1973.400.050.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0813.6415.80-0.07-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0852.1751.960.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0872.7376.360.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0842.8639.19-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.0834.7837.15-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0866.6765.210.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0850.0053.300.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0890.4886.880.080.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0821.0527.82-0.06-0.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0860.8760.770.010.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.0818.7526.45-0.09-0.04
Oregon St.P120.100.0861.9056.420.020.01
TempleAmer0.090.0863.6459.840.030.02
WisconsinB100.050.0860.8755.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0831.8236.14-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0859.0953.030.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0886.3679.150.070.05
ColoradoP120.100.0869.5765.330.040.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0842.8646.34-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0836.8438.39-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.090.0845.4546.10-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0856.5256.610.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0815.0027.26-0.06-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0666.6767.690.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0682.6181.140.030.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0656.5256.310.010.01
CampbellBSth0.100.0628.5729.65-0.04-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0645.4547.57-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0625.0026.87-0.02-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0650.0051.270.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0665.2266.160.030.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.440.010.02
UMBCAE0.100.0624.0026.41-0.05-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0660.0060.090.020.01
ArizonaP120.100.0679.1778.330.060.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.52-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.100.0666.6769.500.030.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0663.6460.940.030.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0621.7423.32-0.05-0.03
DrexelCAA0.090.0613.6418.14-0.07-0.04
DukeACC0.100.0673.9170.040.050.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0640.9143.53-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0652.1750.420.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0675.0076.240.050.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.220.010.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0643.4842.62-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0645.4549.70-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0645.8346.66-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.100.0656.5257.280.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.0673.9169.830.050.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0617.3920.66-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0672.0070.510.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.840.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0520.0020.45-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0562.5059.780.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0543.4842.01-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0539.1338.34-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0569.5766.510.040.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.2556.100.010.01
IndianaB100.090.0579.1774.020.060.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0517.6529.24-0.03-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0557.8962.290.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0528.5726.96-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0566.6763.420.030.01
RutgersB100.000.0521.7420.35-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.0049.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0535.0035.98-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0570.5975.550.040.03
TulaneAmer0.090.0533.3332.34-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0552.3845.700.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0569.5767.480.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0586.9686.370.040.04
Washington St.P120.050.0536.3632.00-0.01-0.02
MercerSC0.100.0572.7370.750.040.02
PurdueB100.090.0579.1776.550.060.03
NebraskaB100.090.0554.1751.810.010.00
OhioMAC0.090.0561.9059.430.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0531.5831.80-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0526.0929.20-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0559.0958.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0586.3685.030.030.04
DavidsonA100.050.0560.0057.960.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.059.5213.52-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.050.0578.2674.420.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0552.6350.220.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0521.7423.40-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0550.0051.170.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0530.4335.11-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0547.3749.97-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0563.6462.140.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0533.3335.09-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0582.6178.890.060.03
SamfordSC0.050.0539.1341.32-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0550.0046.610.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0523.8127.69-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0575.0071.500.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0566.6770.540.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.6413.62-0.03-0.04
VCUA100.050.0573.9173.900.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0538.8945.66-0.02-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0530.0035.77-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0515.7920.03-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0516.6720.13-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0565.0066.790.010.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.240.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.79-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0334.7834.00-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.230.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.910.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.36-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.350.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0320.0026.74-0.03-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.07-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0366.6762.620.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.670.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.77-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.040.030.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.690.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.8763.000.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.13-0.04-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.160.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.66-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.420.030.02
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.380.040.02
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.380.030.02
DuquesneA100.050.0363.6456.430.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.290.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8641.97-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0340.9139.36-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0381.8276.740.030.01
NavyPat0.050.0362.5062.450.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.15-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0371.4368.970.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0354.1757.520.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.030.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
ArmyPat0.050.0352.1753.380.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01