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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Oklahoma St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:58.4
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:97
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:108



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-53.50.02%
24-66.00.03%
23-710.90.10%
22-814.70.47%
21-918.81.53%
20-1023.54.15%
19-1130.38.57%
18-1238.013.47%
17-1347.017.32%
16-1458.218.38%
15-1570.715.59%
14-1684.510.92%
13-17100.35.88%
12-18116.72.67%
11-19130.30.58%
10-20151.70.25%
9-21168.40.05%
8-22194.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Campbell (295.2)BSthH102-65W100%0.0
11-14Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndH102-90W100%0.0
11-16New Orleans (251.5)SlndH117-72W100%0.0
11-21Connecticut (139.2)AmerN90-98W100%0.0
11-22North Carolina (5.3)ACCN107-75L0%0.0
11-23Georgetown (97.1)BEN97-70W100%0.0
12-3Maryland (85.4)B10A71-70L0%0.0
12-10Tulsa (188.2)AmerA0-081%10.5
12-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (335.5)SWACH0-0100%33.2
12-17Wichita St. (33.4)MVCA0-020%-10.2
12-22Texas A&M Corpus Chris (163.3)SlndH0-093%17.3
12-30West Virginia (11.6)B12H0-025%-8.2
1-4Texas (118.9)B12A0-058%2.3
1-7Baylor (8.1)B12A0-023%-9.1
1-11Iowa St. (32.0)B12H0-042%-2.3
1-14Kansas (7.6)B12A0-017%-11.3
1-18Kansas St. (77.0)B12H0-063%4.0
1-21Texas Tech (70.7)B12A0-040%-3.1
1-23TCU (45.1)B12H0-062%3.5
1-28Arkansas (43.1)SECH0-064%4.4
1-30Oklahoma (79.1)B12A0-046%-1.1
2-4West Virginia (11.6)B12A0-011%-14.5
2-8Baylor (8.1)B12H0-041%-2.8
2-11Texas (118.9)B12H0-076%8.6
2-15TCU (45.1)B12A0-041%-2.7
2-18Oklahoma (79.1)B12H0-067%5.2
2-22Kansas St. (77.0)B12A0-042%-2.3
2-25Texas Tech (70.7)B12H0-060%3.1
2-28Iowa St. (32.0)B12A0-024%-8.6
3-4Kansas (7.6)B12H0-034%-5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oklahoma St.B1228.5626.3370.3752.6511.631.39
Kansas St.B120.454.2487.5060.150.330.86
TexasB120.004.2357.1439.070.00-0.93
OklahomaB120.004.2371.4348.700.00-0.11
KansasB120.004.2187.5075.960.002.18
Texas TechB120.004.2187.5062.870.001.08
West VirginiaB120.004.2185.7183.770.002.84
BaylorB120.004.20100.0077.180.002.29
Iowa St.B120.004.2071.4368.150.001.53
TCUB120.004.20100.0062.610.001.06
New OrleansSlnd7.141.7850.0043.600.00-0.23
Central ArkansasSlnd7.141.7614.2931.40-5.10-0.66
TulsaAmer0.711.7650.0038.750.00-0.39
Wichita St.MVC0.001.7575.0086.930.001.29
MarylandB107.541.7585.7157.935.390.28
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.001.7375.0063.650.000.47
ConnecticutAmer7.141.7240.0041.02-1.43-0.31
GeorgetownBE7.591.7262.5049.491.90-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.001.7285.7167.200.000.59
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.670.0024.50-0.00-0.85
CampbellBSth7.141.6750.0040.710.00-0.31
North CarolinaACC7.141.6785.7181.365.101.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.2425.0055.33-0.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.2440.0054.54-0.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.2325.0043.41-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.2285.7157.450.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.2042.8637.34-0.00-0.05
TulaneAmer1.160.2012.5023.93-0.87-0.11
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.180.0039.53-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1720.0041.92-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1750.0058.040.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1787.5082.360.000.11
MemphisAmer0.000.1775.0055.500.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.1766.6766.860.000.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1750.0066.300.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0025.23-0.00-0.08
WisconsinB101.290.1677.7876.040.720.09
Long Beach St.BW0.450.160.0038.27-0.45-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.160.0017.61-0.00-0.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1542.8650.12-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1485.7178.280.000.08
RadfordBSth0.450.1428.5734.28-0.19-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1475.0064.920.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1460.0067.760.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.140.0022.31-0.00-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1466.6766.180.000.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1433.3352.84-0.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1411.1148.19-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.1471.4349.170.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.1450.0059.920.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1357.1452.030.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.1250.0041.540.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1277.7849.900.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1257.1433.230.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.1285.7176.240.000.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1233.3352.11-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1220.0021.80-0.00-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1257.1467.260.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.170.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1150.0046.410.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.450.1166.6761.330.150.03
OregonP120.990.1175.0072.250.500.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1112.5033.65-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1142.8627.96-0.00-0.05
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0019.67-0.00-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1142.8650.11-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.1137.5037.74-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1114.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1155.5658.610.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.1140.0058.82-0.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.370.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.1187.5075.590.000.06
Arkansas St.SB0.400.1175.0066.370.200.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1187.5075.240.000.06
IllinoisB100.000.1162.5050.710.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1142.8655.09-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1114.2931.28-0.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1162.5043.800.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1150.0046.240.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.1187.5070.890.000.05
IndianaB100.450.1187.5074.490.330.05
MichiganB100.000.1175.0066.460.000.04
DukeACC0.000.1188.8978.400.000.06
KentuckySEC0.000.1187.5082.800.000.07
TennesseeSEC0.000.1140.0041.12-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1162.5052.330.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.1187.5078.510.000.06
The CitadelSC0.510.0950.0030.350.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0942.8650.06-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0925.0029.54-0.00-0.04
Washington St.P120.710.0942.8628.98-0.10-0.04
VMISC0.510.080.0016.78-0.51-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.0887.5068.610.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0871.4366.700.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.860.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.100.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0887.5068.020.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0875.0048.500.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0857.1449.130.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0871.4360.540.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0857.1444.890.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.450.0875.0049.180.22-0.00
RichmondA100.450.0850.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0828.5723.78-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.0837.5052.01-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.790.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.790.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.450.08100.0074.440.450.04
DavidsonA100.000.0871.4363.170.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0862.5067.390.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0037.65-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0642.8646.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3348.07-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.910.0644.4441.30-0.10-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.79-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0642.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.940.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0685.7145.370.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.450.0550.0050.450.000.00
HowardMEAC0.400.0516.6744.34-0.26-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.890.0571.4373.040.380.02
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.620.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.630.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6735.430.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.840.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0571.4355.160.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0542.8651.95-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0514.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0512.5029.15-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0557.1454.360.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0516.6729.81-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0575.0066.410.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0557.1442.530.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0557.1458.840.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0051.040.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3330.44-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0557.1453.990.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0575.0056.590.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0575.0071.470.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0522.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.560.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0537.5037.03-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.060.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0084.840.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0528.5723.12-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.050.0016.68-0.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.03
USCP120.710.03100.0076.680.710.02
ColgatePat0.510.0312.5029.71-0.38-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.510.0314.2938.26-0.36-0.01
SamfordSC0.510.0362.5056.520.130.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.24-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.600.0342.8654.90-0.090.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.600.0333.3346.38-0.20-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.600.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.600.0333.3354.47-0.200.00
AmericanPat0.450.0314.2931.35-0.32-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.420.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.450.0328.5738.15-0.19-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
TowsonCAA0.450.0342.8653.19-0.060.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.450.0342.8650.09-0.060.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.400.030.0017.13-0.40-0.02
ElonCAA0.400.0371.4359.470.170.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.450.0342.8638.63-0.06-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.260.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.450.0316.6736.03-0.30-0.01