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Through games of Jan 26, 2015.


Oklahoma St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:46.4
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:37
Current Record:12-6
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-610.00.01%
22-711.80.13%
21-814.80.73%
20-919.33.98%
19-1026.010.74%
18-1133.620.25%
17-1243.024.30%
16-1354.821.42%
15-1468.812.61%
14-1584.54.78%
13-1699.50.99%
12-17114.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southeastern Louisiana (267.2)SlndH83-55W100%0.0
11-16Prairie View A&M (307.2)SWACH74-52W100%0.0
11-21Milwaukee (282.3)HorzH82-68W100%0.0
11-24Oregon St. (88.9)P12N66-53W100%0.0
11-26Tulsa (44.4)AmerN58-73W100%0.0
12-3North Texas (270.8)CUSAH87-61W100%0.0
12-6South Carolina (80.2)SECA75-49L0%0.0
12-13Memphis (71.6)AmerA55-73W100%0.0
12-16Middle Tennessee (148.0)CUSAH68-44W100%0.0
12-21Maryland (22.7)B10H64-73L0%0.0
12-30Missouri (196.0)SECN72-74W100%0.0
1-3Kansas St. (91.7)B12H61-47W100%0.0
1-6Iowa St. (24.3)B12A63-61L0%0.0
1-10Texas (25.3)B12H69-58W100%0.0
1-13Kansas (4.4)B12A67-57L0%0.0
1-17Oklahoma (27.2)B12A82-65L0%0.0
1-21Texas Tech (188.4)B12H63-43W100%0.0
1-24Kansas St. (91.7)B12A63-53L0%0.0
1-27Baylor (15.9)B12H0-048%-0.6
1-31Oklahoma (27.2)B12H0-047%-0.8
2-4Texas (25.3)B12A0-025%-7.5
2-7Kansas (4.4)B12H0-047%-0.8
2-9Baylor (15.9)B12A0-025%-7.4
2-14TCU (104.6)B12A0-041%-2.5
2-18Iowa St. (24.3)B12H0-053%0.9
2-21West Virginia (20.0)B12H0-047%-0.8
2-28Texas Tech (188.4)B12A0-071%6.0
3-4TCU (104.6)B12H0-065%4.2
3-7West Virginia (20.0)B12A0-025%-7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oklahoma St.B1226.4726.3367.6556.849.343.60
OklahomaB123.294.4361.1163.540.731.20
BaylorB120.664.4377.7872.080.371.96
Texas TechB123.294.4157.8943.050.52-0.61
Iowa St.B123.284.4077.7869.431.821.71
TCUB120.354.3873.6862.660.171.11
KansasB123.064.3583.3376.002.042.26
Kansas St.B125.774.3561.1147.551.28-0.21
TexasB123.074.3573.6869.421.451.69
West VirginiaB120.294.3584.2175.760.202.24
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.001.9522.2234.34-1.67-0.61
MemphisAmer2.931.8766.6763.590.980.51
South CarolinaSEC2.851.8750.0051.400.000.05
North TexasCUSA2.921.8437.5034.43-0.73-0.57
TulsaAmer2.921.8482.3574.841.890.91
MissouriSEC2.851.8135.2931.07-0.84-0.69
MarylandB102.851.7885.0076.642.000.95
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.851.7823.5341.98-1.51-0.29
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.781.7561.1158.090.620.28
MilwaukeeHorz2.781.7227.7830.20-1.23-0.68
Oregon St.P122.781.7276.4764.421.470.50
AuburnSEC0.530.2650.0040.050.00-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.310.2478.9572.140.180.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.2310.0015.21-0.24-0.16
KentuckySEC0.300.23100.0098.470.300.22
ConnecticutAmer0.150.2361.1160.470.030.05
RiceCUSA0.300.2026.6730.25-0.14-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.450.2047.3749.50-0.02-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.220.2031.5844.76-0.08-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.220.2072.2263.570.100.05
TennesseeSEC0.370.2066.6754.640.120.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.1782.3584.870.200.12
UMKCWAC0.360.1731.5838.36-0.13-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.1744.4434.93-0.01-0.05
HoustonAmer0.290.1736.8435.44-0.08-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1721.4339.82-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1740.0048.18-0.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.1745.0057.03-0.020.02
LSUSEC0.150.1778.9569.080.080.06
OaklandHorz0.210.1536.8442.19-0.06-0.02
CreightonBE0.310.1542.8638.61-0.04-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.1543.7543.13-0.01-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.150.1566.6760.600.050.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.1416.6723.18-0.05-0.08
ArizonaP120.290.1490.0087.170.230.11
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1472.2265.290.060.04
TulaneAmer0.220.1463.1653.840.060.01
TempleAmer0.150.1465.0062.240.050.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.140.006.69-0.15-0.12
IowaB100.140.1465.0063.260.040.04
BradleyMVC0.210.1430.0031.32-0.08-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.240.1242.1151.57-0.040.00
UTEPCUSA0.160.1263.1668.410.040.04
UCLAP120.150.1255.0052.110.020.00
WashingtonP120.150.1273.6865.210.070.04
WisconsinB100.150.1290.0087.160.120.09
South FloridaAmer0.150.1231.5832.17-0.06-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1255.5654.010.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.1235.2931.66-0.02-0.04
SMUAmer0.070.1278.9577.540.040.06
Washington St.P120.080.1247.3738.15-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1173.6872.910.070.05
FloridaSEC0.150.1152.6353.730.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.1163.1663.590.020.03
UCFAmer0.230.1144.4441.07-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.140.1161.9060.530.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1116.6722.01-0.10-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1128.5736.64-0.06-0.03
George MasonA100.070.1129.4131.72-0.03-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1123.0835.96-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.280.1160.0056.760.060.02
LafayettePat0.070.1155.5657.060.010.02
Long Beach St.BW0.210.1142.1151.85-0.030.00
Michigan St.B100.210.1165.0063.970.060.03
Old DominionCUSA0.150.0978.9579.390.090.05
ValparaisoHorz0.150.0980.0079.110.090.05
FIUCUSA0.070.0943.7540.86-0.01-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0942.8642.72-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.0973.6872.660.070.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0914.2917.07-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.150.0925.0022.84-0.08-0.05
UABCUSA0.070.0947.3749.78-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.140.0950.0052.210.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0935.2932.48-0.02-0.03
LamarSlnd0.150.0937.5037.63-0.04-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0955.0045.730.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.150.0933.3334.70-0.05-0.03
StanfordP120.070.0973.6869.450.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.0947.0654.42-0.010.01
UtahP120.070.0983.3383.680.050.06
LipscombASun0.150.0841.1842.84-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.085.2610.55-0.07-0.07
Texas St.SB0.140.0843.7545.81-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0852.3854.020.000.01
VMISC0.070.0831.5837.64-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0650.0053.430.000.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0640.0042.45-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0678.9577.920.040.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0615.7918.55-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0647.3748.02-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0635.0034.43-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.150.0652.3843.050.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.0647.0654.50-0.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0670.5967.540.000.02
OregonP120.080.0668.4259.870.030.01
USCP120.080.0647.3740.00-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.150.0666.6762.820.050.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.0658.3365.150.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.150.0689.4787.870.120.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0625.0031.37-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0664.2967.420.000.02
ButlerBE0.070.0671.4370.490.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.003.50-0.00-0.05
DrakeMVC0.070.0615.7917.73-0.05-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0663.1666.580.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0625.0037.78-0.04-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0062.020.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0657.1462.530.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.0670.5975.570.060.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.0638.8940.47-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.0642.1145.63-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0635.2941.28-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0695.0094.570.070.05
Western IllinoisSum0.150.0631.2527.84-0.06-0.03
WinthropBSth0.140.0643.7548.08-0.02-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0635.2936.87-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0042.950.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0628.5733.12-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0644.4437.92-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0623.5328.57-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0673.6868.210.030.02
IndianaB100.070.0675.0068.440.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0672.2264.220.030.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0661.1158.490.020.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0636.8433.26-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0663.1651.390.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.0638.8940.89-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0672.2277.830.060.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0661.9060.140.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0661.1160.430.020.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0638.8943.44-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0665.0051.820.000.00
PittsburghACC0.140.0663.1654.100.040.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0661.1161.520.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0670.5968.840.030.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0661.9062.380.020.01
RutgersB100.070.0647.6237.43-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0616.6725.22-0.09-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0628.5732.31-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.140.0623.5327.83-0.07-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0650.0055.540.000.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0652.6354.300.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.140.0661.1162.850.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0661.1159.790.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0642.1135.39-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0673.6873.980.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0344.4449.88-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0371.4374.820.040.02
IUPUISum0.070.0338.1040.90-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0053.200.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0335.2935.00-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0345.0047.77-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0333.3335.61-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0357.8948.680.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0352.6351.180.000.00
CornellIvy0.080.0347.0648.23-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0315.0023.69-0.06-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0352.6360.370.000.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0352.6349.050.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0357.8956.850.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0337.5045.87-0.02-0.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0363.1663.090.020.01
BrownIvy0.070.0341.1837.94-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0363.1662.110.020.01
ElonCAA0.080.0347.3744.10-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0363.1657.370.020.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0338.4633.54-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0378.9580.780.040.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0342.1147.18-0.01-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0322.2226.61-0.04-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0352.9447.070.00-0.00
XavierBE0.080.0365.0063.140.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0314.2915.34-0.05-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0325.0024.52-0.03-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0347.3744.57-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0335.0031.74-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0357.8950.390.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0360.0056.620.010.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0350.0043.450.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0376.1976.820.000.01
VirginiaACC0.070.03100.0093.900.070.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0327.7832.08-0.03-0.01