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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Oklahoma St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:94.5
Current RPI:88
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:101
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:132
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-823.00.01%
22-930.60.11%
21-1041.00.86%
20-1151.03.36%
19-1261.18.70%
18-1373.618.38%
17-1488.124.44%
16-15105.423.38%
15-16125.014.55%
14-17145.55.35%
13-18164.40.85%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Pepperdine (307.7)WCCH78-47W100%0.0
11-13Charlotte (301.7)CUSAH83-65W100%0.0
11-16Oral Roberts (220.9)SumH91-48W100%0.0
11-20Texas A&M (29.6)SECN55-72L0%0.0
11-21Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCN67-73W100%0.0
11-26Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndH101-74W100%0.0
11-29Austin Peay (214.6)OVCH79-63W100%0.0
12-3Mississippi Valley St. (348.9)SWACH83-62W100%0.0
12-9Wichita St. (18.0)AmerH66-78L0%0.0
12-16Florida St. (39.9)ACCN70-71W100%0.0
12-19Tulsa (128.6)AmerH71-59W100%0.0
12-22UT Rio Grande Valley (227.6)WACH102-83W100%0.0
12-29West Virginia (15.9)B12H79-85L0%0.0
1-3Oklahoma (22.7)B12A109-89L0%0.0
1-6Iowa St. (107.1)B12H96-87W100%0.0
1-10Kansas St. (67.7)B12A86-82L0%0.0
1-13Texas (46.2)B12H65-64W100%0.0
1-15Baylor (58.6)B12A76-60L0%0.0
1-20Oklahoma (22.7)B12H83-81W100%0.0
1-23Texas Tech (26.3)B12A0-019%-9.8
1-27Arkansas (41.8)SECA0-029%-6.2
1-30TCU (28.0)B12H0-045%-1.5
2-3Kansas (5.9)B12A0-011%-13.8
2-6Baylor (58.6)B12H0-047%-0.9
2-10West Virginia (15.9)B12A0-013%-12.7
2-14Kansas St. (67.7)B12H0-052%0.6
2-17TCU (28.0)B12A0-024%-7.9
2-21Texas Tech (26.3)B12H0-038%-3.4
2-24Texas (46.2)B12A0-029%-6.2
2-27Iowa St. (107.1)B12A0-046%-1.1
3-3Kansas (5.9)B12H0-025%-7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oklahoma St.B1226.4826.3060.5648.685.60-0.69
Kansas St.B123.054.1372.2261.951.360.99
West VirginiaB123.124.1283.3377.112.082.23
OklahomaB125.474.1281.2569.183.421.58
KansasB120.354.0984.2179.590.242.42
BaylorB122.914.0958.8254.620.510.38
Iowa St.B122.914.0964.7148.680.86-0.11
TCUB120.584.0773.6865.600.271.27
TexasB122.854.0766.6759.160.950.75
Texas TechB120.504.0778.9571.820.291.78
Texas A&MSEC2.841.8266.6762.760.950.47
TulsaAmer2.911.8057.8955.160.460.19
Wichita St.Amer2.921.7777.7876.601.620.94
ArkansasSEC0.211.7568.4263.970.080.49
Oral RobertsSum2.841.7531.5833.77-1.04-0.57
PittsburghACC2.701.6942.1131.90-0.43-0.61
PepperdineWCC2.771.6711.1118.99-2.15-1.03
Florida St.ACC2.631.6477.7872.041.460.72
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.701.6447.3746.63-0.14-0.11
Austin PeayOVC2.631.6147.0647.71-0.15-0.07
CharlotteCUSA2.631.6125.0026.59-1.32-0.76
Houston BaptistSlnd2.631.616.2520.06-2.30-0.97
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.631.610.0011.03-2.63-1.26
Nebraska OmahaSum0.210.2225.0028.01-0.11-0.10
VanderbiltSEC0.220.2136.8435.57-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.210.2166.6763.200.070.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.2121.0544.26-0.08-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.140.1868.4258.980.050.03
KentuckySEC0.070.1873.6867.970.030.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.177.6923.28-0.17-0.09
SMUAmer0.140.1670.0070.570.050.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.1612.5025.45-0.16-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.210.1627.7834.50-0.09-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1472.2272.980.060.06
UTSACUSA0.290.1441.1839.65-0.05-0.03
BelmontOVC0.220.1471.4374.660.090.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.220.137.1414.82-0.18-0.09
UMKCWAC0.200.1321.0524.75-0.12-0.07
VirginiaACC0.140.1394.7486.140.130.10
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1352.6347.390.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1335.2940.48-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.140.1373.6871.560.070.06
UCFAmer0.070.1368.4260.860.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.1365.0054.670.020.01
DukeACC0.270.1389.4785.210.210.09
SyracuseACC0.140.1368.4261.230.050.03
MississippiSEC0.070.1352.6345.860.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1142.8635.24-0.02-0.03
South DakotaSum0.070.1173.6872.380.030.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1143.7549.13-0.02-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.290.1144.4446.65-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.1137.5037.68-0.02-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1142.1143.51-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.1157.8953.190.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1145.0049.29-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.210.1142.1132.47-0.03-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.150.1135.0026.12-0.04-0.05
PortlandWCC0.150.1127.7827.28-0.06-0.05
RiceCUSA0.140.1111.1117.68-0.11-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.140.1180.9583.260.090.07
TempleAmer0.070.1152.6351.740.000.00
TulaneAmer0.140.1163.1657.890.040.02
HoustonAmer0.200.1178.9572.990.120.05
LouisvilleACC0.140.1178.9569.790.080.04
Miami FLACC0.140.1177.7870.480.080.04
NorthwesternB100.150.1155.0050.330.010.00
SouthernSWAC0.140.1127.7840.97-0.06-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.1172.2268.930.030.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1021.0539.48-0.08-0.02
AmericanPat0.140.1026.3228.11-0.07-0.05
Arizona St.P120.070.1078.9576.130.040.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1066.6755.940.000.01
LSUSEC0.070.1061.1153.170.020.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1085.7182.090.000.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1061.1151.910.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0968.4270.810.060.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.0950.0051.380.000.00
LamarSlnd0.140.0850.0054.890.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.0828.5731.26-0.06-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0861.9065.160.020.02
Penn St.B100.200.0861.9055.760.050.01
Virginia TechACC0.210.0868.4257.740.080.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0842.1140.46-0.01-0.02
BYUWCC0.140.0880.9576.240.090.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0829.4133.20-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.0870.0071.230.050.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0852.9452.650.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.0810.5316.75-0.11-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0852.6355.290.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.130.0852.6343.110.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0889.4785.550.000.06
MemphisAmer0.130.0865.0058.540.040.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0836.8444.11-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.140.0840.0043.35-0.03-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.140.0830.0039.93-0.05-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.0870.5969.630.080.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0884.2173.240.000.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0863.1661.020.020.02
USCP120.220.0871.4368.280.090.03
FordhamA100.140.0831.5829.06-0.05-0.03
George WashingtonA100.140.0845.0043.48-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0816.6724.91-0.05-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0880.0075.060.040.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0889.4777.000.000.04
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.690.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.067.6920.090.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0670.0068.220.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0668.4263.650.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0670.5975.950.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0678.9576.750.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.76-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0626.3231.50-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.0657.8966.260.020.02
Texas St.SB0.140.0657.8950.210.020.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0663.6457.630.020.01
MontanaBSky0.130.0670.5973.150.050.03
UNLVMWC0.140.0673.6865.260.060.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0666.6765.640.050.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0641.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.003.070.00-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0627.7829.100.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0683.3384.240.000.04
PacificWCC0.070.0645.0044.47-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0690.4888.960.060.04
San DiegoWCC0.070.0663.1657.540.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.140.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0633.3332.94-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0666.6766.020.020.02
High PointBSth0.140.0543.7549.23-0.02-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.0552.9455.030.010.01
TroySB0.070.0535.2942.76-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0561.1164.130.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0533.3337.23-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.150.0561.1158.700.030.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0578.9576.990.040.03
CreightonBE0.070.0575.0070.700.040.02
Illinois St.MVC0.130.0547.3746.09-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.070.0547.6244.02-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0515.7920.91-0.05-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0545.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0541.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0544.4450.08-0.010.00
OregonP120.150.0565.0063.850.040.01
WisconsinB100.070.0550.0046.300.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0585.7180.080.050.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0545.0041.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0565.0056.340.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0516.6724.26-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0530.0036.50-0.03-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0566.6763.070.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.059.5217.90-0.06-0.03
DuquesneA100.140.0570.0058.090.050.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0510.0019.63-0.06-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0538.8943.430.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.070.0552.9459.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0526.6729.040.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0510.5314.830.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0521.0522.02-0.04-0.03
MichiganB100.070.0576.1970.740.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0572.2258.920.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0529.4139.63-0.03-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6759.820.000.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0533.3340.08-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0545.0048.560.00-0.00
NJITASun0.070.0538.8942.61-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0511.1115.29-0.05-0.04
SamfordSC0.070.0527.7832.66-0.03-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0067.890.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0550.0045.870.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6768.730.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0555.0050.370.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0566.6767.700.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0511.1118.00-0.05-0.03
VCUA100.070.0560.0059.700.010.01
WashingtonP120.000.0570.0061.440.000.01
Washington St.P120.070.0547.3741.44-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0564.7159.990.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0568.7563.690.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0541.1847.560.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.25-0.04-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.300.030.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0358.8261.450.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0321.0525.97-0.04-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0331.5832.720.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.24-0.04-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0385.0083.200.050.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.710.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.690.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0327.7827.10-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0370.0060.470.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.850.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.590.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.73-0.04-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.140.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.86-0.04-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0325.0031.45-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.550.030.01
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.690.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.36-0.04-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.230.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
BucknellPat0.000.0361.9068.020.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.930.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.09-0.07-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6763.420.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.190.040.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.210.020.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1665.970.020.01
UtahP120.070.0363.1659.710.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00