Oklahoma St.

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	120.3
Current RPI:	114
Expected SOS:	13
Current SOS:	26
Current Record:	10-12
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	4-6
Expected Conf Record:	6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.23%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	146
Expected OOC SOS:	92

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	64.0	0.02%
16-14	69.9	0.30%
15-15	83.6	2.33%
14-16	97.0	9.91%
13-17	109.9	25.62%
12-18	122.8	34.58%
11-19	136.3	21.86%
10-20	149.8	5.37%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	H	71-39	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	H	73-46	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Texas San Antonio (169.2)	Slnd	H	90-85	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Stanford (89.9)	P12	N	82-67	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Virginia Tech (93.2)	ACC	N	57-59	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	H	59-56	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	A	67-72	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Pittsburgh (74.5)	BE	N	74-68	L	0%	0.0
12-17	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	N	56-66	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Alabama (30.4)	SEC	N	69-52	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	N	58-68	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Virginia Tech (93.2)	ACC	H	61-67	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	H	67-59	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Texas (58.4)	B12	A	58-49	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Oklahoma (89.8)	B12	H	72-65	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Baylor (6.8)	B12	A	106-65	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	A	71-68	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	H	58-66	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Missouri (11.7)	B12	H	79-72	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	A	76-61	L	0%	0.0
1-31	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	A	63-80	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Baylor (6.8)	B12	H	60-64	L	0%	0.0
2-7	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	H	0-0		43%	-1.9
2-11	Kansas (8.8)	B12	A	0-0		5%	-17.6
2-15	Missouri (11.7)	B12	A	0-0		8%	-15.5
2-18	Texas (58.4)	B12	H	0-0		34%	-4.5
2-22	Oklahoma (89.8)	B12	A	0-0		32%	-5.0
2-25	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	H	0-0		67%	4.7
2-27	Kansas (8.8)	B12	H	0-0		16%	-10.9
3-3	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	A	0-0		16%	-11.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oklahoma St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oklahoma St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oklahoma St.	B12	26.42	26.38	40.82	36.61	-4.85	-7.06
Kansas St.	B12	2.94	4.29	71.43	66.57	1.26	1.42
Texas Tech	B12	5.01	4.24	35.00	27.84	-1.50	-1.88
Texas A&M	B12	2.89	4.24	50.00	44.63	0.00	-0.46
Iowa St.	B12	2.68	4.22	72.73	67.74	1.22	1.50
Kansas	B12	0.61	4.22	78.26	77.63	0.35	2.33
Missouri	B12	2.78	4.22	95.45	90.01	2.53	3.37
Texas	B12	2.78	4.22	59.09	59.88	0.51	0.83
Baylor	B12	4.96	4.21	90.00	82.69	3.97	2.75
Oklahoma	B12	2.74	4.21	61.90	56.19	0.65	0.52
Virginia Tech	ACC	4.60	3.39	52.38	52.11	0.22	0.14
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.53	1.86	19.05	21.86	-1.57	-1.05
Tulsa	CUSA	2.43	1.75	63.64	61.09	0.66	0.39
Missouri St.	MVC	2.43	1.75	56.52	59.17	0.32	0.32
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.42	1.75	40.00	39.21	-0.48	-0.38
Alabama	SEC	2.32	1.72	66.67	68.03	0.77	0.62
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.32	1.72	60.00	62.92	0.46	0.44
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	2.33	1.70	18.18	25.22	-1.48	-0.84
New Mexico	MWC	2.32	1.69	80.95	80.35	1.44	1.03
Pittsburgh	BE	2.27	1.67	59.09	56.76	0.41	0.23
Stanford	P12	2.27	1.67	68.18	67.20	0.83	0.57
Rice	CUSA	0.31	0.31	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.31	0.25	76.19	75.94	0.16	0.13
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.26	0.23	47.06	50.75	-0.02	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.26	0.23	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.26	0.22	26.32	29.79	-0.12	-0.09
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.26	0.22	43.48	43.31	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.36	0.22	80.77	80.75	0.22	0.14
West Virginia	BE	0.30	0.22	65.22	65.17	0.09	0.07
Texas Christian	MWC	0.20	0.17	57.14	49.54	0.03	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.21	0.17	78.26	72.34	0.12	0.08
Texas St.	Slnd	0.16	0.17	22.22	27.62	-0.09	-0.07
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.26	0.17	19.05	25.52	-0.16	-0.08
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.21	0.17	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.20	0.16	35.00	40.78	-0.06	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.16	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.16	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.11
Colorado St.	MWC	0.21	0.14	66.67	60.80	0.07	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.20	0.14	27.78	29.58	-0.09	-0.06
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.14	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.20	0.14	10.00	14.93	-0.16	-0.10
North Florida	ASun	0.20	0.14	45.83	46.68	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.15	0.14	30.43	26.44	-0.06	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.14	71.43	73.35	0.04	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.14	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.11	85.71	78.05	0.11	0.06
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.11	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.11	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.11	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.11	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.11	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.20	0.11	38.10	42.78	-0.05	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.11	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.11	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.15	0.11	82.61	80.42	0.10	0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.16	0.11	25.00	23.75	-0.08	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.15	0.11	8.70	11.67	-0.12	-0.08
Brigham Young	WCC	0.20	0.11	75.00	76.00	0.10	0.06
California	P12	0.10	0.11	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.15	0.11	69.57	65.47	0.06	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.20	0.11	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.11	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.15	0.11	15.00	15.73	-0.11	-0.07
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.11	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.06
North Texas	SB	0.15	0.11	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.11	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.11	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.11	31.82	42.13	-0.06	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.20	0.11	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.11	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.20	0.11	95.83	92.01	0.18	0.09
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.11	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.11	72.73	71.71	0.04	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.11	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.15	0.11	86.96	83.16	0.11	0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.11	20.83	20.60	-0.09	-0.06
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.11	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.09	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.05
Fresno St.	WAC	0.16	0.09	39.13	44.52	-0.03	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.08	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.08	69.57	68.90	0.06	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.08	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.15	0.08	30.43	31.43	-0.06	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.08	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.08	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.10	0.08	33.33	33.88	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.08	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.08	28.57	26.30	-0.04	-0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.08	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.05
Troy	SB	0.16	0.08	28.57	30.17	-0.07	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.14	0.08	87.50	85.41	0.11	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.15	0.08	61.90	55.14	0.04	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.08	90.91	87.74	0.12	0.06
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.08	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.08	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.08	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.08	17.65	27.10	-0.10	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.08	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.08	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.08	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.07
Maryland	ACC	0.15	0.08	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.08	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.08	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.08	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.08	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
Providence	BE	0.10	0.08	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.00	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.00	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.00	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.10	0.06	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.02	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.05	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.00	0.05	76.19	76.76	0.00	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.05	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.05	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.05	36.36	39.72	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.05	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.05	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.05	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.05	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.05	86.96	85.46	0.00	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.05	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.00	0.05	4.00	5.26	-0.00	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.00	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.02