Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	344.0
Current RPI:	344
Expected SOS:	335
Current SOS:	335
Current Record:	5-23
Expected Record:	5-23
Current Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-12
Current OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC RPI:	334
Expected OOC SOS:	176

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-23	344.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	A	93-57	L	0%
11-13	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	102-60	L	0%
11-15	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	81-68	L	0%
11-24	Louisiana St. (86.0)	SEC	A	75-50	L	0%
12-8	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	67-39	L	0%
12-10	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	A	70-49	L	0%
12-19	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	A	77-42	L	0%
12-22	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	N	63-52	L	0%
12-23	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	N	69-64	L	0%
12-30	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	A	67-64	L	0%
1-2	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	A	79-64	L	0%
1-6	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	H	79-68	W	100%
1-8	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	65-69	L	0%
1-12	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	A	72-67	L	0%
1-14	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	A	88-54	L	0%
1-19	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	73-64	W	100%
1-21	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	48-75	L	0%
1-26	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	A	60-57	L	0%
1-28	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	A	50-65	W	100%
2-2	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	A	65-64	L	0%
2-4	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	A	73-65	L	0%
2-9	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	80-75	W	100%
2-11	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	74-78	L	0%
2-16	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	A	80-77	L	0%
2-18	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	73-57	L	0%
2-23	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	71-90	L	0%
2-25	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	90-68	W	100%
2-28	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	70-78	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	26.36	26.36	16.96	16.96	-17.42	-17.42
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.74	4.74	37.93	37.93	-1.14	-1.14
Southern	SWAC	4.67	4.67	66.67	66.67	1.56	1.56
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.65	4.65	29.63	29.63	-1.89	-1.89
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.64	4.64	33.33	33.33	-1.55	-1.55
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.59	4.59	24.14	24.14	-2.37	-2.37
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.59	4.59	26.67	26.67	-2.14	-2.14
Grambling	SWAC	4.58	4.58	0.00	0.00	-4.58	-4.58
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.56	4.56	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.53	4.53	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	1.93	1.93	30.00	30.00	-0.77	-0.77
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.90	1.90	38.71	38.71	-0.43	-0.43
Northwestern	B10	1.87	1.87	38.71	38.71	-0.42	-0.42
Bradley	MVC	1.84	1.84	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	1.84	1.84	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
Virginia	ACC	1.84	1.84	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Mississippi	SEC	1.81	1.81	75.76	75.76	0.93	0.93
Louisiana St.	SEC	1.81	1.81	60.00	60.00	0.36	0.36
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.79	1.79	36.00	36.00	-0.50	-0.50
Cincinnati	BE	1.79	1.79	65.62	65.62	0.56	0.56
Houston	CUSA	0.27	0.27	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.24	0.24	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Texas A&M	SEC	0.23	0.23	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.23	0.23	31.25	31.25	-0.09	-0.09
Iowa St.	B12	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Missouri	SEC	0.19	0.19	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.17	0.17	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.15	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Troy	SB	0.12	0.12	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
California	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.09	23.33	23.33	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00