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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:338.1
Current RPI:268
Expected SOS:322
Current SOS:134
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:6-25
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-13
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:305
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18249.00.04%
12-19273.40.19%
11-20289.30.82%
10-21303.42.49%
9-22317.25.58%
8-23326.510.25%
7-24334.616.62%
6-25340.520.12%
5-26344.819.43%
4-27347.614.10%
3-28349.47.07%
2-29350.32.51%
1-30350.70.73%
0-31351.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11BYU (78.8)WCCA91-61L0%0.0
11-13Utah (45.4)P12A91-51L0%0.0
11-15Utah St. (127.2)MWCA83-47L0%0.0
11-19Kent St. (87.0)MACA0-01%-27.8
11-21Loyola Chicago (111.1)MVCA0-02%-26.0
11-25Southeastern Louisiana (248.9)SlndN0-014%-12.8
11-26Samford (209.6)SCA0-05%-19.9
12-3Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12A0-00%-37.0
12-13Duquesne (253.1)A10A0-05%-19.6
12-16Akron (118.6)MACA0-02%-25.5
12-18Grand Canyon (135.1)WACA0-01%-26.9
12-20UNLV (110.1)MWCA0-01%-28.7
12-23UAB (84.4)CUSAA0-01%-30.5
1-1Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACH0-051%0.4
1-6Alabama St. (334.9)SWACA0-033%-5.2
1-8Alabama A&M (341.8)SWACA0-036%-4.3
1-13Alcorn St. (317.1)SWACH0-038%-3.6
1-15Southern (281.6)SWACH0-029%-6.6
1-20Texas Southern (177.8)SWACA0-05%-19.4
1-22Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACA0-021%-9.6
1-27Jackson St. (279.5)SWACH0-030%-6.4
1-29Grambling St. (328.3)SWACH0-044%-1.7
2-3Alabama St. (334.9)SWACH0-053%0.8
2-5Alabama A&M (341.8)SWACH0-056%1.7
2-10Alcorn St. (317.1)SWACA0-021%-9.7
2-12Southern (281.6)SWACA0-015%-12.6
2-17Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH0-013%-13.3
2-19Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACH0-038%-3.6
2-24Jackson St. (279.5)SWACA0-015%-12.4
2-26Grambling St. (328.3)SWACA0-026%-7.7
3-1Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACA0-032%-5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC32.6426.350.0021.30-32.64-15.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.160.0020.360.00-2.47
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.160.0030.470.00-1.63
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.784.160.0031.24-2.78-1.56
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.140.0047.580.00-0.20
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.110.0021.620.00-2.34
SouthernSWAC0.004.100.0042.150.00-0.64
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.100.0023.790.00-2.15
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.100.0041.960.00-0.66
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.090.0034.450.00-1.27
Kent St.MAC0.001.73100.0064.870.000.51
SamfordSC0.001.7233.3346.280.00-0.13
Utah St.MWC16.671.7233.3348.48-5.56-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.720.0042.590.00-0.26
BYUWCC16.671.7250.0066.230.000.56
UNLVMWC0.001.72100.0063.530.000.47
UtahP1216.671.72100.0065.9416.670.55
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.67100.0055.800.000.19
AkronMAC0.001.67100.0058.910.000.30
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.67100.0074.280.000.81
UABCUSA0.001.67100.0077.960.000.93
DuquesneA100.001.61100.0046.100.00-0.13
Oklahoma St.B120.001.61100.0058.150.000.26
BaylorB120.000.22100.0061.110.000.05
OhioMAC0.000.2233.3348.480.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.20100.0064.120.000.06
OregonP120.000.19100.0076.200.000.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.17100.0063.590.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.170.0038.990.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1733.3345.540.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.17100.0058.250.000.03
ValparaisoMVC0.000.17100.0059.760.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.16100.0066.490.000.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.1650.0050.570.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.16100.0044.740.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1650.0060.060.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1566.6749.100.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.14100.0054.140.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1466.6763.220.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.140.0048.610.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1433.3346.880.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.14100.0059.250.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1450.0035.330.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1425.0050.070.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.13100.0053.460.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.13100.0057.360.000.02
GonzagaWCC2.080.13100.0086.182.080.09
PacificWCC0.000.130.0033.520.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.120.0035.610.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1166.6748.040.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.11100.0061.010.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1150.0038.730.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.11100.0039.920.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.110.0034.600.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.1175.0076.250.000.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1166.6763.230.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0018.400.00-0.07
IllinoisB100.000.11100.0059.240.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1150.0054.450.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.11100.0041.780.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1150.0069.320.000.04
SeattleWAC0.000.1133.3350.150.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.11100.0082.350.000.07
NevadaMWC0.000.11100.0078.910.000.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.110.0021.010.00-0.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1166.6742.260.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.11100.0082.910.000.07
TCUB120.000.11100.0061.150.000.02
Weber St.BSky2.080.1066.6766.020.690.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.100.0042.340.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0042.810.00-0.01
USCP120.000.09100.0073.190.000.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0022.920.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0068.280.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.08100.0083.700.000.06
UCFAmer0.000.08100.0061.780.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0850.0036.640.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0028.770.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0049.250.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.080.0026.150.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0042.850.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0866.6762.150.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0833.3352.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0850.0060.430.000.02
VMISC0.000.0833.3327.450.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.080.0029.880.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0850.0062.630.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.08100.0071.010.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0850.0048.690.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0833.3346.410.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.08100.0054.960.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.08100.0052.950.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.08100.0061.320.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0850.0051.840.000.00
VCUA100.000.0866.6766.590.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.080.0031.910.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0866.6756.400.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6768.320.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6749.990.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0036.830.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0062.760.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0052.860.000.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.740.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0051.080.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0043.710.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0666.6761.500.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0046.410.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3336.410.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
RichmondA100.000.060.0030.280.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0633.3351.560.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0633.3357.840.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0633.3330.460.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0056.560.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0021.380.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.05100.0065.580.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.05100.0071.180.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.050.0041.210.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.050.0036.070.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.050.0035.450.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0566.6742.170.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0533.3331.290.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0533.3334.490.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0052.380.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.05100.0058.070.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0065.140.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.050.0057.520.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0566.6753.670.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.05100.0062.930.000.01
MichiganB100.000.05100.0061.710.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.05100.0071.700.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0550.0049.480.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.05100.0060.070.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0023.260.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0566.6767.630.000.02
TexasB120.000.05100.0063.830.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.05100.0062.630.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0533.3350.220.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0566.6771.200.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.050.0027.250.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0533.3336.170.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6745.880.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0550.0034.730.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0550.0042.160.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0566.6765.630.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.05100.0059.870.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.050.0029.710.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0566.6753.390.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.05100.0088.360.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.05100.0062.240.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0533.3346.330.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0566.6746.830.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.05100.0076.260.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0533.3346.090.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0029.620.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0375.0052.360.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6740.170.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0029.630.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
MissouriSEC2.780.0366.6757.890.930.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.180.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0046.000.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0048.410.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.030.0037.050.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0333.3331.840.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
Montana St.BSky2.080.0333.3350.35-0.690.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0333.3338.880.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.130.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.170.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy2.780.030.0051.01-2.780.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB2.780.03100.0071.562.780.01