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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:316.3
Current RPI:264
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:62
Current Record:0-9
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:24



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15189.00.01%
15-16199.00.01%
14-17219.00.18%
13-18241.00.84%
12-19260.22.27%
11-20277.85.71%
10-21294.510.37%
9-22307.416.88%
8-23318.819.78%
7-24327.518.94%
6-25334.613.23%
5-26339.87.30%
4-27343.63.45%
3-28346.60.81%
2-29348.20.20%
1-30347.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northwestern (51.2)B10A94-63L0%0.0
11-14West Virginia (11.6)B12A107-66L0%0.0
11-16Kent St. (194.9)MACA93-63L0%0.0
11-18Michigan St. (48.5)B10A100-53L0%0.0
11-22UMass Lowell (265.7)AEN76-71L0%0.0
11-23Liberty (211.7)BSthA70-55L0%0.0
11-26Fort Wayne (115.6)SumA79-54L0%0.0
11-27Indiana (20.4)B10A85-52L0%0.0
12-1Gonzaga (10.2)WCCA97-63L0%0.0
12-15Seattle (263.8)WACA0-015%-12.6
12-17Grand Canyon (179.1)WACA0-06%-19.0
12-20Iowa St. (32.0)B12A0-00%-37.5
12-22Drake (311.0)MVCA0-016%-11.7
1-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (335.5)SWACA0-044%-2.0
1-7Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-080%10.2
1-9Alabama St. (327.8)SWACH0-054%1.2
1-14Alcorn St. (314.4)SWACA0-033%-5.4
1-16Southern (234.3)SWACA0-013%-13.6
1-21Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACH0-057%2.0
1-23Texas Southern (104.8)SWACH0-011%-14.4
1-28Jackson St. (301.7)SWACA0-023%-8.9
1-30Grambling St. (339.2)SWACA0-044%-1.7
2-4Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA0-063%3.9
2-6Alabama St. (327.8)SWACA0-033%-5.1
2-11Alcorn St. (314.4)SWACH0-053%0.9
2-13Southern (234.3)SWACH0-027%-7.3
2-18Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACA0-036%-4.3
2-20Texas Southern (104.8)SWACA0-04%-20.7
2-25Jackson St. (301.7)SWACH0-041%-2.6
2-27Grambling St. (339.2)SWACH0-065%4.6
3-4Arkansas Pine Bluff (335.5)SWACH0-064%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC28.3126.370.0029.07-28.31-11.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.190.0022.08-0.00-2.34
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.1514.2941.72-0.00-0.69
Grambling St.SWAC0.404.1525.0030.34-0.20-1.63
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.140.0032.36-0.00-1.46
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.1350.0064.520.001.20
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.1314.2929.67-0.00-1.68
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.130.0012.34-0.00-3.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.1312.5031.97-0.00-1.49
SouthernSWAC0.004.1240.0057.18-0.000.59
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.7942.8657.30-0.000.26
IndianaB106.721.7885.7173.644.800.84
SeattleWAC0.001.7216.6737.66-0.00-0.43
Iowa St.B120.351.7271.4366.970.150.58
UMass LowellAE6.761.7012.5036.37-5.07-0.46
DrakeMVC0.001.700.0017.31-0.00-1.11
NorthwesternB105.561.6971.4365.042.380.51
Kent St.MAC5.561.6750.0052.790.000.09
West VirginiaB125.561.6783.3383.113.701.10
Fort WayneSum6.211.6766.6769.072.070.64
LibertyBSth6.211.6720.0046.14-3.73-0.13
Michigan St.B105.561.6650.0057.230.000.24
GonzagaWCC5.561.64100.0091.645.561.37
BaylorB120.310.30100.0076.590.310.16
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.2350.0071.020.000.10
TCUB120.000.21100.0061.680.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1925.0027.53-0.00-0.09
NebraskaB100.000.1957.1444.890.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1822.2221.23-0.00-0.10
UMKCWAC0.000.1762.5052.330.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.1750.0059.920.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1687.5068.610.000.06
Kansas St.B120.000.1687.5059.310.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1671.4354.310.000.01
TexasB120.350.1657.1438.680.05-0.04
WisconsinB100.000.1677.7876.040.000.08
PurdueB100.000.1675.0075.340.000.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.350.1466.6757.300.120.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1420.0022.75-0.00-0.08
South DakotaSum0.400.1450.0046.020.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.400.1442.8630.92-0.06-0.05
ArizonaP120.660.1375.0068.370.330.05
Penn St.B100.000.1366.6746.420.00-0.01
KansasB120.350.1387.5075.860.260.07
IllinoisB100.400.1362.5050.710.100.00
MichiganB100.000.1375.0066.460.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1242.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1257.1436.010.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1271.4358.920.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1242.8660.54-0.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1275.0070.180.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1285.7153.560.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1242.8650.12-0.000.00
DenverSum0.000.1142.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1160.0058.590.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1125.0020.78-0.00-0.07
OhioMAC0.000.1183.3371.480.000.05
TroySB0.000.1142.8636.19-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.350.1160.0069.120.070.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1157.1449.130.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1128.5741.52-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0089.330.000.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.1187.5075.590.000.05
OklahomaB120.000.1171.4348.350.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.1187.5062.040.000.03
IowaB100.000.1037.5037.74-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1087.5068.020.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1085.7145.370.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.81-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0925.0039.59-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.350.0971.4355.160.150.01
Illinois St.MVC0.400.0960.0067.760.080.03
Notre DameACC0.350.09100.0077.380.350.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0942.8655.09-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.400.0933.3336.74-0.13-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0937.5051.64-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.310.090.0022.31-0.31-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0842.8650.11-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0018.64-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.0828.5734.28-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.400.0887.5078.510.300.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0828.5723.12-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0875.0086.710.150.06
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0866.6740.030.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0885.7178.280.000.05
LamarSlnd0.000.0850.0041.540.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0842.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0816.6736.03-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0842.8661.11-0.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0871.4368.980.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0871.4356.250.000.01
George MasonA100.400.0862.5046.900.10-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0825.0022.93-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.400.0857.1458.840.060.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0887.5082.360.000.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0812.5037.99-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0887.5059.330.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.540.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0650.0045.970.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.370.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0037.65-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0677.7849.900.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.58-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0642.8646.48-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.80-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.84-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.260.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.77-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.240.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.350.0566.6735.430.12-0.02
MaristMAAC0.310.0544.4434.65-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.310.0588.8978.400.240.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.350.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0550.0043.560.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0533.3352.21-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0562.5066.900.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5641.690.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0522.2226.33-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.450.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0566.6761.330.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0533.3346.38-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0514.2924.15-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0562.5058.450.000.01
NJITASun0.310.0550.0049.780.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8645.56-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8646.14-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0542.8633.23-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0550.0054.070.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0537.5031.23-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0533.3332.35-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0537.5052.01-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0528.5738.15-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0575.0054.670.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0550.0043.390.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0537.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.0580.0054.540.000.00
UtahP120.000.0575.0059.790.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0525.0029.54-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0562.5071.320.000.02
BryantNEC0.690.0525.0047.82-0.35-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.400.0511.1148.19-0.31-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.400.0550.0044.400.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.350.05100.0074.440.350.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0039.53-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0512.5030.68-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0566.6755.540.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0571.4363.930.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.170.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0575.0071.470.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0562.5067.390.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.85-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.400.0385.7166.190.280.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.24-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.460.0371.4356.260.200.00
VCUA100.460.0375.0073.060.230.01
William & MaryCAA0.460.0333.3346.01-0.15-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.51-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0032.52-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0342.8654.90-0.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0333.3332.92-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.400.0328.5731.44-0.17-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.740.000.00
FloridaSEC0.350.0387.5075.240.260.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.0371.4355.820.130.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.94-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.310.0371.4358.600.130.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.350.0328.5736.95-0.15-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.310.0333.3354.47-0.100.00
WoffordSC0.400.030.0034.81-0.40-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.310.0357.1471.940.040.01
KentuckySEC0.310.0387.5082.800.230.02
ManhattanMAAC0.400.0325.0034.40-0.20-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.350.0387.5081.960.260.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.990.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.350.0342.8638.63-0.05-0.01
St. John'sBE0.310.0337.5037.03-0.08-0.01
TempleAmer0.400.0375.0064.920.200.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
VMISC0.000.030.0016.78-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.350.0375.0054.490.170.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01