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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:349.0
Current RPI:350
Expected SOS:335
Current SOS:292
Current Record:0-19
Expected Record:3-28
Current Conf Record:0-6
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-17
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:315
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22324.20.04%
8-23331.40.27%
7-24339.91.28%
6-25344.55.11%
5-26347.313.16%
4-27348.823.39%
3-28349.827.10%
2-29350.419.59%
1-30350.88.67%
0-31350.91.38%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11BYU (62.6)WCCA91-61L0%0.0
11-13Utah (70.5)P12A91-51L0%0.0
11-15Utah St. (167.7)MWCA83-47L0%0.0
11-19Kent St. (186.5)MACA80-67L0%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (65.3)MVCA63-50L0%0.0
11-25Southeastern Louisiana (204.8)SlndN73-59L0%0.0
11-26Samford (261.3)SCA83-70L0%0.0
12-3Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12A83-62L0%0.0
12-13Duquesne (213.1)A10A73-49L0%0.0
12-16Akron (213.7)MACA81-63L0%0.0
12-18Grand Canyon (147.4)WACA71-38L0%0.0
12-20UNLV (123.3)MWCA95-63L0%0.0
12-23UAB (126.5)CUSAA74-57L0%0.0
1-1Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACH71-80L0%0.0
1-6Alabama St. (341.1)SWACA63-46L0%0.0
1-8Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACA65-55L0%0.0
1-13Alcorn St. (342.9)SWACH63-77L0%0.0
1-15Southern (302.3)SWACH70-78L0%0.0
1-20Texas Southern (208.4)SWACA91-77L0%0.0
1-22Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACA0-011%-13.7
1-27Jackson St. (292.8)SWACH0-038%-3.4
1-29Grambling St. (286.7)SWACH0-034%-4.5
2-3Alabama St. (341.1)SWACH0-051%0.3
2-5Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACH0-062%3.5
2-10Alcorn St. (342.9)SWACA0-025%-7.5
2-12Southern (302.3)SWACA0-014%-12.1
2-17Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH0-013%-12.5
2-19Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACH0-026%-7.3
2-24Jackson St. (292.8)SWACA0-019%-9.8
2-26Grambling St. (286.7)SWACA0-016%-10.9
3-1Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACA0-021%-9.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC26.3526.320.0011.20-26.35-20.43
Alabama A&MSWAC3.004.155.5613.15-2.67-3.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.434.1521.0536.55-0.25-1.11
Grambling St.SWAC0.514.1436.8441.94-0.13-0.67
Texas SouthernSWAC2.854.1216.6740.86-1.90-0.75
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.934.0926.3232.95-1.39-1.40
Alabama St.SWAC2.844.0911.7620.71-2.17-2.39
Jackson St.SWAC0.374.0838.8941.35-0.08-0.71
SouthernSWAC2.844.0823.5337.11-1.50-1.05
Alcorn St.SWAC2.844.086.6720.50-2.46-2.41
UNLVMWC2.771.7572.2264.121.230.49
UtahP122.831.7458.8257.480.500.26
Kent St.MAC2.781.7341.1842.95-0.49-0.24
SamfordSC2.851.7223.5330.26-1.51-0.68
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.781.7250.0053.370.000.12
BYUWCC2.841.7280.0075.441.700.87
Utah St.MWC2.841.7242.1143.63-0.45-0.22
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.781.6776.4770.631.470.69
AkronMAC2.631.6743.7542.94-0.33-0.24
Grand CanyonWAC2.631.6768.4270.210.970.67
UABCUSA2.701.6658.8262.840.480.43
DuquesneA102.631.6168.4256.710.970.22
Oklahoma St.B122.631.6166.6752.560.880.08
BaylorB120.290.2261.1156.090.070.03
OhioMAC0.140.2147.0648.44-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.220.1947.6244.03-0.01-0.02
ToledoMAC0.220.1966.6767.690.070.07
OregonP120.220.1965.0063.830.060.05
ValparaisoMVC0.290.1750.0051.360.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.1661.1158.750.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.300.1622.2228.59-0.16-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1652.6355.290.010.02
Boise St.MWC0.270.1678.9576.970.160.09
New MexicoMWC0.070.1645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.140.1637.5031.76-0.03-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1666.6763.420.040.04
TulaneAmer0.230.1463.1657.900.060.02
Northern IowaMVC0.220.1447.0652.51-0.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.220.1468.4263.640.080.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.1426.6729.04-0.04-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1452.6350.250.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.150.1472.2274.900.070.07
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1462.5058.700.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1445.0045.02-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.220.1326.3231.52-0.10-0.05
WyomingMWC0.140.1361.1156.830.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.140.1380.9583.260.080.09
HawaiiBW0.140.1368.7563.960.050.04
PacificWCC0.200.1345.0044.46-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1245.0049.27-0.02-0.00
Iowa St.B120.150.1161.1147.260.03-0.01
MercerSC0.070.1144.4454.89-0.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1170.0068.420.060.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1110.0019.62-0.17-0.07
IllinoisB100.210.1147.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.1158.8249.760.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.1147.0641.45-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.1157.8954.500.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.1183.3384.230.040.07
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1141.1838.46-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1166.6768.700.000.04
Washington St.P120.070.1150.0042.180.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1138.8935.35-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.070.1185.7182.070.050.07
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1111.7612.81-0.10-0.08
Oregon St.P120.210.1157.8950.810.030.00
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1089.4785.520.110.07
Georgia St.SB0.070.1066.6765.530.020.03
KansasB120.070.1084.2179.740.050.06
TCUB120.070.1073.6865.590.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.190.1056.2557.400.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1033.3332.96-0.04-0.03
LSUSEC0.160.0961.1153.160.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0937.5045.22-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.097.1414.82-0.13-0.06
UCFAmer0.150.0868.4260.880.060.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0843.7554.09-0.020.01
UMKCWAC0.140.0821.0524.71-0.08-0.04
USCP120.150.0871.4368.300.060.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.210.0818.7536.76-0.13-0.02
ArizonaP120.140.0880.0078.980.090.05
Illinois St.MVC0.140.0847.3745.87-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0815.7920.92-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0866.6766.010.020.03
VMISC0.070.0825.0024.17-0.03-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.0870.0068.220.060.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0844.4446.640.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.140.0884.2173.210.100.04
DaytonA100.140.0847.3750.95-0.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.130.0863.1657.540.030.01
VCUA100.070.0860.0059.690.010.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0858.8262.830.010.02
TroySB0.140.0835.2942.76-0.04-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.130.0868.4258.990.050.01
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0844.4445.98-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.130.0857.1453.220.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.130.0810.5318.34-0.10-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.130.0850.0048.740.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0868.4263.980.030.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0855.0053.290.010.01
CreightonBE0.080.0675.0070.690.040.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.55-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0641.1847.51-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0652.9452.620.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.27-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0051.480.000.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0678.9576.130.040.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.870.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0629.4133.220.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.12-0.07-0.05
ColoradoP120.000.0660.0053.730.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0655.0049.070.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0689.4785.190.060.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.160.040.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0652.6347.360.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0666.6768.500.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0670.0065.320.000.02
MemphisAmer0.150.0665.0058.490.040.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0672.2274.700.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0625.0028.020.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0618.7518.40-0.05-0.04
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.040.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7567.640.000.02
WashingtonP120.070.0670.0061.440.030.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0668.4270.810.030.02
WoffordSC0.070.0668.7563.620.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.055.8819.37-0.13-0.03
LamarSlnd0.140.0550.0054.850.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.0520.0023.36-0.09-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0546.6746.98-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.0541.1839.13-0.03-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0552.9452.230.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.150.0568.4269.240.050.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0568.4264.200.030.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.63-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.080.0558.8261.440.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.0538.8946.03-0.03-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.140.0552.9460.270.010.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0511.1117.69-0.05-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0531.5834.35-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.0557.1460.400.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0550.0052.440.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0542.1132.480.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0552.6343.120.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0552.9457.320.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0572.2258.940.030.01
NortheasternCAA0.140.0563.1663.180.040.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0527.7834.50-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0573.6872.360.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0572.2272.970.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0535.2940.48-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0546.6758.78-0.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0521.0523.50-0.08-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.0545.0041.34-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0542.1134.32-0.01-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0531.5832.720.00-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.06-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0545.0043.49-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0568.4254.090.030.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0578.9572.990.000.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0573.6862.720.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0527.7829.11-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0575.0070.270.030.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0563.6457.640.020.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.160.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0580.9576.520.040.03
OklahomaB120.140.0577.7867.900.080.02
Oral RobertsSum0.140.0530.0032.53-0.06-0.02
PittsburghACC0.140.0540.0030.87-0.03-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0527.7827.30-0.03-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0547.3746.91-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0590.4888.940.050.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0568.4261.270.030.01
TexasB120.070.0563.1657.620.020.01
Texas TechB120.000.0578.9571.810.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0570.5969.610.000.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0584.2178.170.050.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0560.0060.340.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0529.4134.76-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0570.0070.630.030.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0557.8950.210.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.037.6920.090.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0383.3381.350.050.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0363.1661.050.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.100.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0380.0078.860.050.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.037.6923.280.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0333.3337.22-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.030.060.02
ButlerBE0.070.0366.6763.070.020.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0336.8431.120.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.550.030.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0352.6351.700.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.97-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.80-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.26-0.04-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0317.6517.23-0.04-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0377.7869.360.040.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0329.4139.62-0.03-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.760.000.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0355.0050.370.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.89-0.04-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.110.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0370.0068.050.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.670.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.36-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.15-0.07-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.610.030.01
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.72-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5656.710.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.140.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.410.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.650.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.92-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0360.0062.030.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.360.040.01