live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:334.0
Current RPI:334
Expected SOS:310
Current SOS:310
Current Record:7-25
Expected Record:7-25
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-14
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-25334.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northwestern (50.0)B10A94-63L0%0.0
11-14West Virginia (24.0)B12A107-66L0%0.0
11-16Kent St. (142.0)MACA93-63L0%0.0
11-18Michigan St. (51.0)B10A100-53L0%0.0
11-22UMass Lowell (309.0)AEN76-71L0%0.0
11-23Liberty (172.0)BSthA70-55L0%0.0
11-26Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA79-54L0%0.0
11-27Indiana (79.0)B10A85-52L0%0.0
12-1Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA97-63L0%0.0
12-15Seattle (287.0)WACA82-67L0%0.0
12-17Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA72-62L0%0.0
12-20Iowa St. (21.0)B12A88-60L0%0.0
12-22Drake (314.0)MVCA101-69L0%0.0
1-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA105-91L0%0.0
1-7Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH76-79L0%0.0
1-9Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH73-70W100%0.0
1-14Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA77-84W100%0.0
1-16Southern (320.0)SWACA87-81L0%0.0
1-21Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH72-87L0%0.0
1-23Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH103-89W100%0.0
1-28Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA83-68L0%0.0
1-30Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA77-74L0%0.0
2-4Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA66-68W100%0.0
2-6Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA71-66L0%0.0
2-11Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH77-88L0%0.0
2-13Southern (320.0)SWACH72-81L0%0.0
2-18Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA82-69L0%0.0
2-20Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA92-61L0%0.0
2-25Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH70-67W100%0.0
2-27Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH84-80W100%0.0
3-4Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH88-77W100%0.0
3-7Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA63-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC26.3926.3923.7723.77-13.85-13.85
Alcorn St.SWAC5.645.6450.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC4.204.2068.7568.751.581.58
SouthernSWAC4.144.1439.2939.29-0.89-0.89
Grambling St.SWAC4.134.1342.8642.86-0.59-0.59
Jackson St.SWAC4.084.0840.7440.74-0.76-0.76
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.064.0617.8617.86-2.61-2.61
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.064.0631.0331.03-1.54-1.54
Alabama St.SWAC4.054.0521.4321.43-2.32-2.32
Alabama A&MSWAC4.004.003.703.70-3.71-3.71
Grand CanyonWAC1.751.7567.8667.860.630.63
IndianaB101.711.7153.1253.120.110.11
Iowa St.B121.681.6868.7568.750.630.63
SeattleWAC1.671.6734.6234.62-0.51-0.51
UMass LowellAE1.641.6431.0331.03-0.62-0.62
DrakeMVC1.641.6417.8617.86-1.05-1.05
NorthwesternB101.631.6366.6766.670.540.54
West VirginiaB121.631.6375.7675.760.840.84
Kent St.MAC1.611.6160.6160.610.340.34
Fort WayneSum1.611.6155.5655.560.180.18
LibertyBSth1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
Michigan St.B101.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
GonzagaWCC1.591.5996.8896.881.491.49
BaylorB120.270.2777.4277.420.150.15
Louisiana TechCUSA0.240.2467.7467.740.080.08
TCUB120.220.2254.5554.550.020.02
WisconsinB100.190.1973.5373.530.090.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
NebraskaB100.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
TexasB120.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Penn St.B100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.11-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
OhioMAC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
RutgersB100.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
DenverSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
RadfordBSth0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
OklahomaB120.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00