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Through games of Jan 26, 2015.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:345.9
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:276
Current Record:2-18
Expected Record:5-26
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-16
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:322
Expected OOC SOS:213



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22326.10.15%
8-23333.41.34%
7-24338.96.17%
6-25343.218.00%
5-26346.229.16%
4-27347.729.00%
3-28348.613.97%
2-29349.52.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Indiana (40.2)B10A116-65L0%0.0
11-17Mississippi St. (230.4)SECA89-68L0%0.0
11-20Tulane (160.4)AmerA100-61L0%0.0
11-24TCU (104.6)B12A106-53L0%0.0
11-26North Texas (270.8)CUSAA67-52L0%0.0
11-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (245.3)SlndA75-66L0%0.0
11-29North Carolina A&T (332.0)MEACN66-63W100%0.0
12-3Oregon St. (88.9)P12A74-50L0%0.0
12-14Northwestern (152.7)B10A101-49L0%0.0
12-16Northern Illinois (225.6)MACA71-64L0%0.0
12-20North Carolina Central (111.3)MEACN60-94L0%0.0
12-28Houston (266.1)AmerA80-53L0%0.0
12-31Iowa St. (24.3)B12A83-33L0%0.0
1-3Arkansas Pine Bluff (303.3)SWACA63-67W100%0.0
1-10Alabama A&M (323.5)SWACH73-86L0%0.0
1-12Alabama St. (214.9)SWACH76-88L0%0.0
1-17Alcorn St. (342.2)SWACA87-67L0%0.0
1-19Southern (247.2)SWACA79-55L0%0.0
1-24Prairie View A&M (307.2)SWACH65-72L0%0.0
1-26Texas Southern (148.8)SWACH84-85L0%0.0
1-31Jackson St. (309.7)SWACH0-023%-8.0
2-2Grambling St. (349.2)SWACA0-050%-0.1
2-7Alabama A&M (323.5)SWACA0-014%-11.7
2-9Alabama St. (214.9)SWACA0-03%-21.0
2-14Alcorn St. (342.2)SWACH0-047%-0.9
2-16Southern (247.2)SWACH0-014%-12.0
2-21Texas Southern (148.8)SWACA0-02%-22.2
2-23Prairie View A&M (307.2)SWACA0-010%-14.4
2-28Jackson St. (309.7)SWACA0-09%-14.8
3-2Grambling St. (349.2)SWACH0-073%6.7
3-5Arkansas Pine Bluff (303.3)SWACH0-027%-6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC26.3726.3714.2917.77-18.84-17.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.574.1925.0034.61-0.28-1.29
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.904.1916.6728.77-1.93-1.78
SouthernSWAC2.994.1827.7841.18-1.33-0.74
Grambling St.SWAC0.574.170.004.02-0.57-3.84
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.004.1730.0036.65-1.20-1.11
Texas SouthernSWAC2.824.1642.1154.15-0.450.35
Alcorn St.SWAC2.864.1311.7617.81-2.18-2.66
Alabama A&MSWAC2.784.1220.0026.45-1.67-1.94
Alabama St.SWAC2.774.1161.5464.710.641.21
TCUB122.641.8172.2260.371.170.38
TulaneAmer2.701.8061.1152.190.600.08
Iowa St.B122.571.7277.7868.641.430.64
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.501.7270.5976.971.030.93
HoustonAmer2.631.7233.3333.22-0.88-0.58
Oregon St.P122.571.7070.5960.851.060.37
Mississippi St.SEC2.701.6941.1832.68-0.48-0.59
IndianaB102.561.6973.6867.391.210.59
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.501.6715.7924.53-1.71-0.85
North TexasCUSA2.571.6731.2530.72-0.96-0.64
NorthwesternB102.501.6447.3741.57-0.13-0.28
Northern IllinoisMAC2.501.6140.0036.57-0.50-0.43
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.501.6150.0045.110.00-0.16
BaylorB120.330.2777.7871.500.180.11
Texas TechB120.400.2755.0041.210.04-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.270.2266.6758.420.090.04
Michigan St.B100.250.2165.0063.970.070.06
MemphisAmer0.400.1963.1661.540.100.04
IowaB100.210.1965.0063.260.060.05
ArkansasSEC0.230.1778.9572.140.130.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.260.1716.6725.22-0.17-0.08
RiceCUSA0.210.1726.6730.25-0.10-0.07
TexasB120.200.1670.0067.370.080.06
South FloridaAmer0.070.1631.5832.17-0.02-0.06
HawaiiBW0.190.1663.1657.370.050.02
SMUAmer0.260.1678.9577.540.150.09
Kansas St.B120.190.1660.0047.710.04-0.01
WashingtonP120.140.1573.6865.210.060.04
Murray St.OVC0.210.1478.9580.780.120.09
HamptonMEAC0.280.1440.0038.76-0.06-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1464.7156.880.040.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1482.3584.870.090.10
PurdueB100.000.1460.0056.760.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1473.6872.910.060.06
OhioMAC0.210.1441.1838.61-0.04-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1473.6872.660.070.06
MississippiSEC0.130.1463.1663.590.030.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1335.2932.48-0.04-0.05
MarylandB100.260.1385.7177.400.190.07
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1378.5775.050.070.07
LamarSlnd0.260.1337.5037.63-0.07-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1235.0031.74-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.1237.5037.43-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.1275.0070.890.040.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1221.0530.50-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.004.64-0.00-0.10
UTEPCUSA0.140.1263.1668.410.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.210.1157.8956.170.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.1135.2936.87-0.02-0.03
UTSACUSA0.210.1143.7543.13-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.1170.5975.570.030.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1138.4633.54-0.03-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.1157.1462.530.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.200.1123.0835.96-0.11-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.1177.7872.260.040.05
UCFAmer0.130.1144.4441.07-0.01-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.1160.0056.620.010.01
AuburnSEC0.200.1150.0040.050.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.250.1176.1976.820.130.06
KansasB120.070.1184.2176.020.050.06
OklahomaB120.000.1163.1664.400.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.130.1166.6754.640.040.01
West VirginiaB120.200.1184.2175.010.140.05
UtahP120.090.0983.3383.680.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.160.0927.7828.14-0.07-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0990.4884.080.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.0944.4449.88-0.02-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.140.0947.3742.90-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.0942.1147.18-0.02-0.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0955.0045.730.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0942.1151.57-0.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0978.9579.390.080.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0820.0027.23-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.0828.5732.31-0.08-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0857.8956.150.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.0833.3330.07-0.05-0.03
Saint LouisA100.210.0844.4437.39-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.200.0830.0031.32-0.08-0.03
RadfordBSth0.200.0861.1161.520.040.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0861.1160.470.000.02
TempleAmer0.070.0865.0062.240.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.190.0861.1162.850.040.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.210.0821.4339.82-0.12-0.02
Washington St.P120.140.0847.3738.15-0.01-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0835.2931.66-0.04-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.130.0852.9453.080.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0825.0022.84-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.0847.3749.78-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0861.1158.490.010.01
BrownIvy0.130.0841.1837.94-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.140.0866.6762.820.050.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0815.7917.73-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.130.0852.6353.730.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0821.0521.30-0.04-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.0826.3236.40-0.06-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0873.6869.450.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.0870.5973.690.050.04
IllinoisB100.130.0861.9060.530.030.02
MichiganB100.060.0857.8950.390.010.00
RutgersB100.060.0847.6237.43-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.060.0890.0087.160.050.06
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0673.6869.260.040.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.0625.0032.96-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0631.2527.84-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0680.0071.460.000.03
DaytonA100.080.0684.2179.140.050.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0652.6346.710.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0638.8940.47-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0642.1135.39-0.01-0.02
CreightonBE0.140.0642.8638.61-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.0610.5319.74-0.10-0.03
HowardMEAC0.130.0641.1844.41-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0654.5556.830.010.01
DenverSum0.150.0645.0047.77-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0653.3353.310.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0658.3365.150.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0625.0025.64-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.0614.2917.07-0.11-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0661.1160.430.020.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0657.8959.340.000.01
TroySB0.070.0631.2531.53-0.03-0.02
DePaulBE0.150.0652.3843.050.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.140.0672.2264.220.060.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.0622.2240.58-0.08-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0690.0087.170.060.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0650.0052.210.000.00
OregonP120.070.0668.4259.870.030.01
UCLAP120.070.0655.0052.110.010.00
USCP120.070.0647.3740.00-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0683.3376.440.040.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.0573.6868.210.060.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.0538.8943.44-0.03-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0566.6760.600.020.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0533.3330.04-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0543.7545.81-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0555.5654.010.010.00
ButlerBE0.130.0571.4370.490.050.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0595.0094.570.060.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0566.6770.420.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0547.0654.50-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.060.0563.1651.390.020.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0550.0062.020.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0561.9060.140.000.01
Penn St.B100.060.0565.0051.820.020.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0561.1156.220.000.01
High PointBSth0.060.0572.2269.040.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0523.5327.83-0.03-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0580.0079.110.040.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0358.8259.040.000.01
IUPUISum0.070.0338.1040.90-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.9576.270.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0366.6765.570.030.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0333.3331.73-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0325.0028.11-0.04-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.030.003.50-0.07-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0350.0050.930.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0343.7540.86-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8642.72-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.080.0337.5043.67-0.02-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0371.4374.820.030.01
MaineAE0.080.0310.0012.94-0.06-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0316.6723.18-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0340.0048.18-0.01-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.080.0338.8936.56-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0370.5967.540.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0352.6351.180.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0347.3749.50-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0352.6349.050.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0357.8956.850.010.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0366.6760.500.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0342.1145.63-0.01-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0347.0654.42-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0345.0040.37-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0344.4443.27-0.01-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0366.6767.930.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0350.0044.160.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0372.2265.290.030.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0363.1666.580.020.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0364.2965.370.020.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0098.470.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0378.9569.080.000.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0336.8442.19-0.02-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0372.2263.570.030.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0331.5838.36-0.02-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0355.5653.180.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0336.8441.50-0.02-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0347.3744.10-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0323.5328.57-0.03-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0347.3750.47-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0315.7918.55-0.04-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0384.2177.800.040.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0352.6360.370.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0390.0084.520.050.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0363.1654.100.020.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.035.2610.55-0.06-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0316.6722.10-0.04-0.01