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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:327.8
Current RPI:330
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:273
Current Record:4-20
Expected Record:6-26
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-13
Current OOC Record:0-14
Expected OOC Record:0-14
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21271.00.02%
10-22288.10.76%
9-23301.64.00%
8-24313.913.79%
7-25324.527.69%
6-26332.831.99%
5-27339.018.01%
4-28343.83.73%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Nebraska (147.7)B10A97-51L0%0.0
11-19Air Force (232.3)MWCA65-64L0%0.0
11-21New Mexico St. (119.7)WACA85-46L0%0.0
11-23Grand Canyon (101.1)WACA94-60L0%0.0
11-25BYU (72.3)WCCA75-68L0%0.0
11-28Robert Morris (299.9)NECN67-64L0%0.0
11-29Tennessee Tech (100.2)OVCA101-64L0%0.0
12-1Duquesne (113.9)A10A91-77L0%0.0
12-3North Carolina Central (322.0)MEACA86-79L0%0.0
12-6Seattle (270.5)WACA84-72L0%0.0
12-12Evansville (74.1)MVCA95-60L0%0.0
12-15Northwestern (114.5)B10A78-48L0%0.0
12-17North Texas (300.7)CUSAA87-74L0%0.0
12-29Hawaii (91.4)BWA77-48L0%0.0
1-4Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.6)SWACH66-60W100%0.0
1-9Alabama St. (293.2)SWACA75-74L0%0.0
1-11Alabama A&M (295.8)SWACA73-79W100%0.0
1-16Alcorn St. (289.3)SWACH87-93L0%0.0
1-18Southern (173.1)SWACH54-67L0%0.0
1-23Texas Southern (193.4)SWACA75-60L0%0.0
1-25Prairie View A&M (344.2)SWACA73-76W100%0.0
1-30Jackson St. (226.0)SWACH62-77L0%0.0
2-1Grambling St. (344.6)SWACH72-59W100%0.0
2-6Alabama St. (293.2)SWACH62-73L0%0.0
2-8Alabama A&M (295.8)SWACH0-033%-4.7
2-13Alcorn St. (289.3)SWACA0-033%-4.8
2-15Southern (173.1)SWACA0-07%-15.8
2-20Texas Southern (193.4)SWACH0-017%-10.5
2-22Prairie View A&M (344.2)SWACH0-058%2.3
2-27Jackson St. (226.0)SWACA0-09%-14.3
2-29Grambling St. (344.6)SWACA0-045%-1.4
3-5Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.6)SWACA0-041%-2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC26.2726.3720.4124.24-15.55-13.58
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.764.1021.7423.23-1.56-2.20
SouthernSWAC2.694.0663.1664.520.711.18
Jackson St.SWAC2.654.0345.0049.52-0.26-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.644.039.5216.82-2.14-2.68
Alabama St.SWAC4.624.0322.2230.83-2.57-1.54
Alcorn St.SWAC2.634.0333.3334.79-0.88-1.22
Alabama A&MSWAC2.624.0241.1846.69-0.46-0.27
Texas SouthernSWAC2.594.0142.8651.43-0.370.11
Grambling St.SWAC2.594.0016.6719.43-1.73-2.44
Grand CanyonWAC2.331.7981.8280.441.481.09
New Mexico St.WAC2.361.7663.6467.450.640.61
SeattleWAC2.221.7245.0042.79-0.22-0.25
NebraskaB102.221.7152.1750.210.100.01
Tennessee TechOVC2.271.7066.6765.390.760.52
EvansvilleMVC2.251.6873.9175.421.070.85
Robert MorrisNEC2.271.6725.0028.42-1.14-0.72
Air ForceMWC2.221.6442.8636.27-0.32-0.45
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.141.6221.0530.54-1.24-0.63
NorthwesternB102.131.6165.2262.200.650.39
HawaiiBW2.131.6183.3380.971.421.00
DuquesneA102.121.5961.9054.920.510.16
BYUWCC2.081.5665.2268.450.630.58
North TexasCUSA2.081.5630.0030.60-0.83-0.61
Louisiana TechCUSA0.310.3071.4368.710.130.11
Chicago St.WAC0.340.254.357.73-0.31-0.21
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.2033.3334.94-0.08-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.230.1960.8763.000.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.250.1954.1749.270.02-0.00
BaylorB120.190.1972.7366.500.090.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1815.0027.26-0.13-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.210.1725.0024.36-0.10-0.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1766.6762.620.050.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1766.6767.690.050.06
UMKCWAC0.190.1728.5732.71-0.08-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.1714.2915.46-0.13-0.12
TulaneAmer0.160.1733.3332.34-0.05-0.06
Ohio St.B100.150.1658.3354.160.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.200.1452.1751.940.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1440.9140.65-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.190.1443.4842.50-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1354.1755.080.020.01
IndianaB100.140.1379.1774.020.080.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.1372.0070.510.080.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1330.4331.18-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.090.1350.0046.740.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1221.0523.58-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1229.1733.15-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.150.1245.4549.70-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1213.6415.80-0.11-0.08
UC DavisBW0.150.1140.0036.77-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1135.0035.98-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.110.1160.8760.770.020.02
MercerSC0.160.1172.7370.750.070.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1145.4546.30-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.200.1182.6179.420.130.07
Saint LouisA100.150.1136.3633.47-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1145.4551.35-0.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.1172.7371.620.040.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1162.5056.260.030.01
HowardMEAC0.150.1138.1040.73-0.04-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.1152.1755.930.010.01
HoustonAmer0.140.1169.5766.510.060.04
BelmontOVC0.130.1166.6766.540.040.04
PortlandWCC0.100.1140.0038.50-0.02-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1131.5831.98-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1150.0051.170.000.00
UNLVMWC0.090.1150.0055.200.000.01
CreightonBE0.140.1062.5059.780.040.02
OhioMAC0.090.1061.9059.430.020.02
BryantNEC0.130.1025.0026.37-0.07-0.05
WisconsinB100.090.1060.8755.840.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1070.8370.840.050.04
Michigan St.B100.130.1083.3383.020.090.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0931.8236.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0935.0032.27-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.0942.8650.41-0.020.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0947.8350.15-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.150.0850.0051.170.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0866.6770.540.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.150.0886.3685.030.110.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.0860.0060.090.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.140.0825.0022.76-0.07-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0856.5256.310.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.089.5213.52-0.11-0.06
OaklandHorz0.100.0868.0067.970.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.100.0831.8230.48-0.04-0.03
NevadaMWC0.100.0855.0054.530.010.01
ClemsonACC0.100.0860.8760.240.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0817.3920.66-0.09-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0847.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0861.9059.660.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0845.0046.77-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.130.0882.6180.580.090.05
UTSACUSA0.100.0813.6413.62-0.07-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.130.0856.5257.280.020.01
VCUA100.090.0873.9173.900.050.04
Texas TechB120.100.0859.0953.120.020.00
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0850.0049.440.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.090.0852.1753.380.000.01
MarylandB100.130.0887.5083.690.100.05
MinnesotaB100.130.0826.0927.82-0.06-0.03
PurdueB100.040.0879.1776.550.030.04
RutgersB100.090.0821.7420.35-0.05-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0834.7837.07-0.03-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0734.7830.36-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0663.6459.240.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0652.3854.010.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0659.0959.440.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.0640.9143.53-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.0657.1459.470.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.0630.0034.56-0.04-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5728.54-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0643.4842.01-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.250.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.350.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0640.9149.27-0.02-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0650.0053.300.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0614.2917.92-0.07-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.0652.1750.420.000.00
WinthropBSth0.100.0665.0063.440.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0572.7372.030.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0542.8639.19-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0534.7840.92-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0552.3850.410.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0556.5262.780.000.01
OregonP120.050.0582.6179.210.030.03
RiceCUSA0.100.0528.5729.72-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.090.0569.5765.330.040.02
SamfordSC0.090.0539.1341.32-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0512.5012.85-0.03-0.04
DavidsonA100.090.0560.0057.960.020.01
DaytonA100.050.0586.3682.380.030.03
DrakeMVC0.040.0521.7423.66-0.02-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0578.2674.420.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.040.0578.2676.810.020.03
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0554.1750.930.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0552.1751.960.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.8760.730.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0543.4842.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0539.1338.57-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0539.1337.74-0.02-0.01
PacificWCC0.090.0525.0028.89-0.04-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0550.0051.270.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0585.7185.390.060.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0531.8229.14-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0554.5550.110.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0571.4368.970.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0570.5975.550.020.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.560.020.01
TCUB120.050.0543.4837.22-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0538.8938.51-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0536.3632.00-0.01-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0572.7376.360.040.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0527.7834.50-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0556.5256.610.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0513.0413.54-0.06-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0566.6765.210.030.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0550.0051.910.000.00
IllinoisB100.040.0545.8344.11-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.040.0569.5766.220.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0540.0045.51-0.02-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0537.5043.37-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0563.6465.030.010.02
Iowa St.B120.040.0573.9170.060.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0547.8344.37-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.880.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0330.4335.11-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0026.74-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0338.1037.44-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0342.1145.73-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0365.2261.070.020.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.52-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.27-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.040.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.220.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.530.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.9145.30-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.19-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.930.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0333.3331.31-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.67-0.03-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.290.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0334.7834.15-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.590.000.00
HarvardIvy0.040.0335.0038.52-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.45-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0340.9139.36-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0375.0070.940.020.01
RichmondA100.000.0354.5554.490.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0382.6178.890.000.02
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.040.0369.5767.480.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.040.0365.0069.270.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0331.5831.80-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.040.0354.5558.140.000.00
DePaulBE0.040.0334.7834.45-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0354.1754.130.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0361.9056.690.010.00
LehighPat0.040.0333.3337.25-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0334.7837.15-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0381.8276.740.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0382.6178.690.030.01
PennIvy0.040.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0331.8232.67-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0386.9686.370.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01