live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:330.0
Current RPI:330
Expected SOS:317
Current SOS:317
Current Record:8-27
Expected Record:8-27
Current Conf Record:8-13
Expected Conf Record:8-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-14
Current OOC Record:0-14
Expected OOC Record:0-14
Expected OOC RPI:334
Expected OOC SOS:121



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-27330.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Nebraska (165.0)B10A97-51L0%0.0
11-19Air Force (226.0)MWCA65-64L0%0.0
11-21New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA85-46L0%0.0
11-23Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA94-60L0%0.0
11-25BYU (76.0)WCCA75-68L0%0.0
11-28Robert Morris (291.0)NECN67-64L0%0.0
11-29Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA101-64L0%0.0
12-1Duquesne (162.0)A10A91-77L0%0.0
12-3North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA86-79L0%0.0
12-6Seattle (287.0)WACA84-72L0%0.0
12-12Evansville (93.0)MVCA95-60L0%0.0
12-15Northwestern (115.0)B10A78-48L0%0.0
12-17North Texas (295.0)CUSAA87-74L0%0.0
12-29Hawaii (80.0)BWA77-48L0%0.0
1-4Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH66-60W100%0.0
1-9Alabama St. (265.0)SWACA75-74L0%0.0
1-11Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACA73-79W100%0.0
1-16Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH87-93L0%0.0
1-18Southern (186.0)SWACH54-67L0%0.0
1-23Texas Southern (190.0)SWACA75-60L0%0.0
1-25Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACA73-76W100%0.0
1-30Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH62-77L0%0.0
2-1Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH72-59W100%0.0
2-6Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH62-73L0%0.0
2-8Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH66-64W100%0.0
2-13Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACA72-71L0%0.0
2-15Southern (186.0)SWACA97-64L0%0.0
2-20Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH67-98L0%0.0
2-22Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH61-63L0%0.0
2-27Jackson St. (221.0)SWACA60-49L0%0.0
2-29Grambling St. (350.0)SWACA57-58W100%0.0
3-5Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACA78-71L0%0.0
3-8Grambling St. (350.0)SWACN87-73W100%0.0
3-9Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACN61-64W100%0.0
3-11Jackson St. (221.0)SWACN74-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC26.5526.5526.8526.85-12.29-12.29
Jackson St.SWAC5.275.2748.2848.28-0.18-0.18
Alcorn St.SWAC5.165.1644.0044.00-0.62-0.62
Grambling St.SWAC5.135.1316.0016.00-3.49-3.49
SouthernSWAC3.983.9858.6258.620.690.69
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.893.8922.5822.58-2.13-2.13
Texas SouthernSWAC3.873.8753.3353.330.260.26
Alabama A&MSWAC3.873.8738.4638.46-0.89-0.89
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.853.8520.6920.69-2.26-2.26
Alabama St.SWAC3.833.8337.0437.04-0.99-0.99
Grand CanyonWAC1.651.6578.5778.570.940.94
New Mexico St.WAC1.601.6066.6766.670.530.53
SeattleWAC1.571.5740.7440.74-0.29-0.29
Tennessee TechOVC1.561.5659.2659.260.290.29
NebraskaB101.561.5645.4545.45-0.14-0.14
EvansvilleMVC1.531.5371.8871.880.670.67
Robert MorrisNEC1.521.5229.0329.03-0.64-0.64
Air ForceMWC1.501.5037.9337.93-0.36-0.36
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.471.4732.1432.14-0.53-0.53
HawaiiBW1.471.4782.7682.760.960.96
NorthwesternB101.471.4761.2961.290.330.33
DuquesneA101.451.4546.6746.67-0.10-0.10
BYUWCC1.431.4367.7467.740.510.51
North TexasCUSA1.431.4331.0331.03-0.54-0.54
Louisiana TechCUSA0.310.3170.0070.000.120.12
Chicago St.WAC0.220.223.453.45-0.20-0.20
Tennessee St.OVC0.200.2064.2964.290.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1972.4172.410.090.09
Virginia TechACC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
BaylorB120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.1718.5218.52-0.11-0.11
UMKCWAC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Ohio St.B100.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
UTEPCUSA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
MarquetteBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
TulaneAmer0.140.1435.2935.29-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
MercerSC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
OhioMAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Penn St.B100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Murray St.OVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1011.1111.11-0.08-0.08
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
BelmontOVC0.090.0963.3363.330.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
RutgersB100.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0757.6957.690.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
OregonP120.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0413.7913.79-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0465.5265.520.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.040.0423.0823.08-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0482.1482.140.030.03
SyracuseACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Washington St.P120.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.040.0444.1244.12-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0412.9012.90-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.010.01