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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:342.0
Current RPI:342
Expected SOS:346
Current SOS:346
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-16
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:334
Expected OOC SOS:287



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23342.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A117-62L0%0.0
11-11Texas A&M (148.0)SECA91-67L0%0.0
11-19Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA94-72L0%0.0
11-22Mississippi (94.0)SECA111-82L0%0.0
11-26Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA76-59L0%0.0
11-29Monmouth (292.0)MAACA81-79L0%0.0
11-30Longwood (337.0)BSthN90-89W100%0.0
12-16Northwestern (123.0)B10A86-64L0%0.0
12-27Washington (104.0)P12A95-80L0%0.0
12-28Washington St. (224.0)P12A85-48L0%0.0
1-4Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH73-78L0%0.0
1-11Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA93-62L0%0.0
1-13Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA68-59L0%0.0
1-18Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACA65-53L0%0.0
1-22Southern (171.0)SWACH72-64W100%0.0
1-25Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA94-56L0%0.0
1-27Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA72-81W100%0.0
2-1Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH69-66W100%0.0
2-3Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH75-67W100%0.0
2-8Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH70-75L0%0.0
2-10Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH82-91L0%0.0
2-15Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH63-67L0%0.0
2-17Southern (171.0)SWACA83-74L0%0.0
2-22Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH65-73L0%0.0
2-24Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH75-69W100%0.0
3-1Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA82-64L0%0.0
3-3Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA72-70L0%0.0
3-8Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACA83-68L0%0.0
3-11Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACN79-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC26.4626.4620.8720.87-15.42-15.42
Prairie View A&MSWAC6.356.3530.0030.00-2.54-2.54
Texas SouthernSWAC4.664.6653.3353.330.310.31
Alabama A&MSWAC4.574.5738.4638.46-1.06-1.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.554.5533.3333.33-1.52-1.52
Alabama St.SWAC4.554.5553.8553.850.350.35
Grambling St.SWAC4.544.5412.0012.00-3.45-3.45
Jackson St.SWAC4.544.5434.4834.48-1.41-1.41
SouthernSWAC4.524.5255.5655.560.500.50
Alcorn St.SWAC4.504.5026.9226.92-2.08-2.08
Mississippi St.SEC1.991.9940.6240.62-0.37-0.37
Texas A&MSEC1.941.9451.6151.610.060.06
MississippiSEC1.861.8656.2556.250.230.23
Oklahoma St.B121.781.7862.5062.500.450.45
WashingtonP121.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
Washington St.P121.781.7827.5927.59-0.80-0.80
Georgia TechACC1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
LongwoodBSth1.721.7214.8114.81-1.21-1.21
MonmouthMAAC1.721.7232.2632.26-0.61-0.61
NorthwesternB101.721.7240.6240.62-0.32-0.32
TCUB120.260.2624.1424.14-0.13-0.13
StanfordP120.220.2263.6463.640.060.06
TulaneCUSA0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1941.1841.18-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
Oregon St.P120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
AuburnSEC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
UCLAP120.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
TroySB0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC0.140.1494.1294.120.120.12
UtahP120.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
IowaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
OregonP120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
MissouriSEC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
WisconsinB100.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
DenverSum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Air ForceMWC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
BaylorB120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
CaliforniaP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
USCP120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01