Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	158.6
Current RPI:	156
Expected SOS:	299
Current SOS:	216
Current Record:	11-11
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	10-0
Expected Conf Record:	16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	48.30%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-2
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	225
Expected OOC SOS:	7

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-11	133.8	16.69%
18-12	148.5	34.90%
17-13	165.5	29.53%
16-14	183.5	14.19%
15-15	201.2	3.98%
14-16	217.8	0.64%
13-17	234.0	0.05%
12-18	255.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Notre Dame (66.5)	BE	A	80-67	L	0%	0.0
11-14	DePaul (187.2)	BE	A	80-70	L	0%	0.0
11-20	North Carolina (4.6)	ACC	A	101-75	L	0%	0.0
11-22	South Carolina (172.1)	SEC	A	61-57	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Tennessee St. (155.4)	OVC	N	90-89	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Cal Poly (192.6)	BW	N	55-72	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Arkansas (65.9)	SEC	A	97-64	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Northwestern (66.2)	B10	A	92-67	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Mississippi (70.0)	SEC	A	80-56	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Florida (14.9)	SEC	A	82-54	L	0%	0.0
12-23	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	A	79-45	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	A	67-65	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	H	82-67	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	A	60-67	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	A	69-81	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	85-66	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	77-56	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	A	57-81	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	A	69-77	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	60-54	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	77-59	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	H	70-58	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	0-0		91%	14.6
2-11	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	A	0-0		83%	10.2
2-13	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	A	0-0		69%	5.3
2-18	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	0-0		73%	6.8
2-20	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	0-0		87%	12.2
2-25	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	A	0-0		74%	7.0
2-27	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	A	0-0		93%	16.5
3-1	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	A	0-0		75%	7.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	26.29	26.40	59.30	67.41	4.89	9.19
Texas Southern	SWAC	2.95	4.35	33.33	44.19	-0.98	-0.51
Grambling	SWAC	2.94	4.34	15.79	16.69	-2.01	-2.89
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	2.91	4.32	18.18	25.23	-1.85	-2.14
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.90	4.32	20.00	26.44	-1.74	-2.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	2.89	4.31	36.84	43.41	-0.76	-0.57
Alabama A&M	SWAC	2.87	4.30	18.75	29.06	-1.80	-1.80
Alabama St.	SWAC	5.00	4.29	33.33	40.17	-1.67	-0.84
Southern	SWAC	2.84	4.29	47.37	48.47	-0.15	-0.13
Alcorn St.	SWAC	2.83	4.28	17.65	24.22	-1.83	-2.21
Arkansas	SEC	2.43	1.89	68.18	63.99	0.88	0.53
Mississippi	SEC	2.53	1.86	61.90	55.22	0.60	0.19
Florida	SEC	2.48	1.83	81.82	76.89	1.58	0.99
South Carolina	SEC	2.52	1.83	38.10	37.48	-0.60	-0.46
DePaul	BE	2.43	1.80	47.62	40.86	-0.12	-0.33
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.44	1.79	59.09	55.07	0.44	0.18
North Carolina	ACC	2.42	1.75	86.36	82.60	1.76	1.14
Northwestern	B10	2.37	1.75	60.00	53.60	0.47	0.13
Iowa St.	B12	2.33	1.73	72.73	67.38	1.06	0.60
Wisconsin	B10	2.38	1.72	73.91	73.11	1.14	0.80
Cal Poly	BW	2.32	1.69	47.62	55.22	-0.11	0.18
Notre Dame	BE	2.27	1.69	63.64	61.41	0.62	0.39
Michigan	B10	0.32	0.26	72.73	66.81	0.14	0.09
Baylor	B12	0.22	0.25	90.91	83.85	0.18	0.17
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.31	0.25	59.09	57.28	0.06	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.27	0.23	34.78	38.42	-0.08	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.22	0.23	68.18	69.10	0.08	0.09
Ohio St.	B10	0.26	0.22	86.96	85.46	0.19	0.16
Auburn	SEC	0.20	0.22	56.52	48.81	0.03	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.22	0.20	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.19	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.20	0.19	95.83	92.57	0.19	0.16
Tulane	CUSA	0.19	0.19	61.90	58.59	0.04	0.03
Providence	BE	0.16	0.17	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.26	0.17	69.57	65.47	0.10	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.20	0.16	76.19	72.91	0.11	0.08
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.15	0.16	78.26	72.34	0.09	0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.16	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.16	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.21	0.15	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.15	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.21	0.14	77.27	77.67	0.12	0.08
Texas Tech	B12	0.16	0.14	31.82	25.98	-0.06	-0.07
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.16	0.14	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.14	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.14	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.14	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.13	0.13	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.17	0.12	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.17	0.12	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.12	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.12	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.17	0.11	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.11	27.78	29.58	-0.07	-0.05
Wofford	SC	0.16	0.11	59.09	57.93	0.03	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.16	0.11	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.15	0.11	56.52	57.72	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.16	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.11	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.11	79.17	75.98	0.09	0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.15	0.11	68.18	63.99	0.05	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.11	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.11	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.09	40.91	39.82	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.09	85.71	82.18	0.08	0.06
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.09	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.09	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.16	0.09	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.09	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.16	0.09	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.09	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.09	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.09	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.09	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.09	0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.09	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.15	0.08	71.43	73.35	0.07	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.08	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.08	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.08	82.61	81.44	0.10	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.08	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.08	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.08	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.08	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.08	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.15	0.08	95.83	92.01	0.14	0.07
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.08	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.08	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.08	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Texas	B12	0.15	0.08	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.00	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.00	0.05
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.06	4.35	9.66	-0.09	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.03	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.10	0.06	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.06	65.00	66.70	0.03	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.06	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	37.47	-0.02	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	27.27	26.95	-0.05	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.06	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.06	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.05	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.10	0.05	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.05	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.05	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.05	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.05	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.00	0.05	86.36	83.09	0.00	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.05	72.73	71.71	0.04	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.05	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.05	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.00	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01