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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:345.0
Current RPI:345
Expected SOS:342
Current SOS:342
Current Record:6-26
Expected Record:6-26
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-17
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:318
Expected OOC SOS:186



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-26345.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Indiana (61.0)B10A116-65L0%0.0
11-17Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA89-68L0%0.0
11-20Tulane (214.0)AmerA100-61L0%0.0
11-24TCU (131.0)B12A106-53L0%0.0
11-26North Texas (224.0)CUSAA67-52L0%0.0
11-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA75-66L0%0.0
11-29North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACN66-63W100%0.0
12-3Oregon St. (133.0)P12A74-50L0%0.0
12-14Northwestern (125.0)B10A101-49L0%0.0
12-16Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA71-64L0%0.0
12-20North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH60-94L0%0.0
12-28Houston (239.0)AmerA80-53L0%0.0
12-31Iowa St. (9.0)B12A83-33L0%0.0
1-3Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA63-67W100%0.0
1-10Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH73-86L0%0.0
1-12Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH76-88L0%0.0
1-17Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA87-67L0%0.0
1-19Southern (223.0)SWACA79-55L0%0.0
1-24Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH65-72L0%0.0
1-26Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH84-85L0%0.0
1-31Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH75-62W100%0.0
2-2Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA65-68W100%0.0
2-7Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA74-68L0%0.0
2-9Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA65-57L0%0.0
2-14Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH76-60W100%0.0
2-16Southern (223.0)SWACH56-68L0%0.0
2-21Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACA84-74L0%0.0
2-23Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA83-73L0%0.0
2-28Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA73-49L0%0.0
3-2Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH66-62W100%0.0
3-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH75-94L0%0.0
3-11Alabama St. (258.0)SWACN93-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC26.4026.4020.5920.59-15.53-15.53
Alabama St.SWAC5.555.5558.3358.330.930.93
SouthernSWAC4.254.2543.3343.33-0.57-0.57
Texas SouthernSWAC4.194.1962.5062.501.051.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.164.1640.0040.00-0.83-0.83
Jackson St.SWAC4.124.1233.3333.33-1.37-1.37
Alcorn St.SWAC4.114.1114.2914.29-2.94-2.94
Grambling St.SWAC4.104.100.000.00-4.10-4.10
Alabama A&MSWAC4.054.0523.0823.08-2.18-2.18
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.044.0436.6736.67-1.08-1.08
TulaneAmer1.761.7644.8344.83-0.18-0.18
TCUB121.741.7453.1253.120.110.11
HoustonAmer1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
Iowa St.B121.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
IndianaB101.661.6659.3859.380.310.31
Oregon St.P121.651.6551.7251.720.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.621.6224.1424.14-0.84-0.84
North TexasCUSA1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
NorthwesternB101.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Northern IllinoisMAC1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
Texas TechB120.240.2440.6240.62-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Michigan St.B100.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
ArkansasSEC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
RiceCUSA0.180.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
IowaB100.180.1865.6265.620.050.05
TexasB120.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Kansas St.B120.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
MarylandB100.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
SMUAmer0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
WashingtonP120.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
HamptonMEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
OhioMAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1386.6786.670.090.09
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1371.4371.430.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1372.4172.410.060.06
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1330.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.120.1242.3142.31-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.116.906.90-0.09-0.09
UTEPCUSA0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UTSACUSA0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01