Southern Mississippi

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	15.8
Current RPI:	7
Expected SOS:	69
Current SOS:	38
Current Record:	18-3
Expected Record:	24-5
Current Conf Record:	7-1
Expected Conf Record:	13-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	18.18%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	14
Expected OOC SOS:	64

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-3	8.1	6.86%
25-4	10.5	24.54%
24-5	14.1	31.96%
23-6	19.1	23.62%
22-7	25.7	10.14%
21-8	33.6	2.46%
20-9	44.2	0.38%
19-10	54.7	0.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Mississippi.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-17	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	59-52	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	58-79	W	100%	0.0
11-24	UC Irvine (260.2)	BW	N	78-67	W	100%	0.0
11-25	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	N	72-80	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Murray St. (30.1)	OVC	N	90-81	L	0%	0.0
12-4	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	H	74-66	W	100%	0.0
12-7	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	54-67	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	H	78-62	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Mississippi (70.0)	SEC	H	86-82	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	A	61-64	W	100%	0.0
12-22	South Florida (96.1)	BE	H	53-51	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	80-49	W	100%	0.0
12-31	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	A	56-65	W	100%	0.0
1-4	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	H	78-76	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	66-71	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	A	60-58	L	0%	0.0
1-14	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	H	59-55	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	H	67-63	W	100%	0.0
1-25	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	A	60-72	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	A	65-78	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	H	75-72	W	100%	0.0
2-8	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	A	0-0		67%	4.8
2-11	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	0-0		76%	7.8
2-15	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	H	0-0		75%	7.4
2-18	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	A	0-0		76%	7.7
2-22	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	0-0		65%	4.2
2-25	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	H	0-0		87%	12.3
2-29	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	H	0-0		91%	15.0
3-3	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	A	0-0		46%	-1.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Mississippi's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Mississippi's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Mississippi.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	26.54	26.25	88.66	84.84	20.52	18.29
UAB	CUSA	2.90	4.19	42.86	41.54	-0.41	-0.71
Memphis	CUSA	4.99	4.16	71.43	73.00	2.14	1.91
Marshall	CUSA	2.71	4.12	61.90	62.13	0.64	1.00
Central Florida	CUSA	2.78	4.11	75.00	70.81	1.39	1.71
East Carolina	CUSA	4.87	4.10	50.00	45.34	0.00	-0.38
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.95	3.60	76.19	73.83	2.59	1.71
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.63	2.51	43.48	43.59	-0.08	-0.32
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.52	2.42	38.10	38.91	-0.12	-0.54
Tulane	CUSA	2.56	2.36	65.00	60.76	0.77	0.51
Tulsa	CUSA	0.35	2.36	60.87	60.23	0.08	0.48
Houston	CUSA	0.40	2.33	47.62	45.39	-0.02	-0.21
Rice	CUSA	0.46	2.33	47.62	47.70	-0.02	-0.11
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.66	1.90	45.00	45.00	-0.27	-0.19
South Alabama	SB	2.55	1.85	55.00	54.99	0.26	0.18
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.54	1.84	43.75	44.32	-0.32	-0.21
Murray St.	OVC	2.54	1.84	100.00	94.34	2.54	1.63
Colorado St.	MWC	2.43	1.81	70.00	63.05	0.97	0.47
Alcorn St.	SWAC	2.49	1.79	17.65	23.95	-1.61	-0.93
Denver	SB	2.49	1.79	69.57	71.24	0.98	0.76
Mississippi	SEC	2.38	1.75	66.67	58.66	0.79	0.30
Arizona St.	P12	2.38	1.75	31.82	32.52	-0.87	-0.61
South Florida	BE	2.38	1.72	57.14	50.28	0.34	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	2.38	1.72	36.84	36.62	-0.63	-0.46
Fresno St.	WAC	0.21	0.23	39.13	44.52	-0.05	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.29	0.22	54.17	54.75	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.23	0.21	45.00	46.13	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.21	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.22	0.21	27.27	26.95	-0.10	-0.10
New Mexico	MWC	0.32	0.21	81.82	81.03	0.20	0.13
Utah St.	WAC	0.21	0.20	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.21	0.20	80.95	76.42	0.13	0.11
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.23	0.19	17.65	27.10	-0.15	-0.09
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.27	0.18	83.33	84.76	0.18	0.13
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.18	17.39	24.41	-0.11	-0.09
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.21	0.18	43.48	44.25	-0.03	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.24	0.18	19.05	25.52	-0.15	-0.09
Belmont	ASun	0.21	0.17	69.57	73.28	0.08	0.08
Hawaii	WAC	0.16	0.17	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.16	0.17	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.24	0.16	60.00	58.29	0.05	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.16	34.78	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.18	0.16	18.18	21.13	-0.11	-0.09
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.18	0.16	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.01
Troy	SB	0.22	0.16	28.57	30.17	-0.09	-0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.23	0.15	34.78	38.42	-0.07	-0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.17	0.15	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.22	0.15	76.19	70.73	0.12	0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.16	0.15	8.70	8.99	-0.13	-0.12
Auburn	SEC	0.18	0.15	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.26	0.14	80.95	77.38	0.16	0.08
Tennessee	SEC	0.21	0.14	45.45	44.66	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.13	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.24	0.13	33.33	33.82	-0.08	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.13	31.82	42.13	-0.06	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.13	15.00	15.73	-0.08	-0.09
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.13	30.00	37.30	-0.05	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.16	0.13	37.50	38.33	-0.04	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.17	0.13	4.35	9.66	-0.16	-0.10
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.12	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.12	27.78	29.58	-0.06	-0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.24	0.12	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.23	0.12	75.00	74.61	0.12	0.06
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.12	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.16	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.05	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.12	0.12	65.22	65.17	0.04	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.12	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.12	95.83	92.01	0.10	0.10
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.12	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.21	0.12	30.00	31.54	-0.08	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.11	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.21	0.11	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.10	61.90	67.23	0.02	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.13	0.10	25.00	23.75	-0.06	-0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.10	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.04
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.10	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.10	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.09	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.07	0.09	22.22	27.62	-0.04	-0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.09	71.43	69.05	0.05	0.04
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.09	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.09	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.09	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.09	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.09	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.09	20.00	19.96	-0.07	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.09	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.09	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.09	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.09	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.07	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.09	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.16	0.09	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.09	66.67	62.65	0.04	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.09	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.09	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.09	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.11	0.09	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.09	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.05
DePaul	BE	0.16	0.09	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.09	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.08	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.08	65.00	60.02	0.05	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.13	0.07	35.00	39.29	-0.04	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.07	56.00	55.65	0.02	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.13	0.07	72.22	71.97	0.06	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.07	34.78	38.77	-0.04	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.07	73.91	68.58	0.06	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.13	0.07	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.07	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.12	0.07	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.00	0.07	56.52	53.10	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.07	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.07	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	71.43	73.35	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.12	0.06	35.00	37.47	-0.04	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.06	0.00	5.37	-0.12	-0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.05	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.06	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.06	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.00	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.00	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.00	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.05	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.04	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.07	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.03	30.00	33.20	-0.03	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.00	0.03	40.91	44.03	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.04	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.00	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.00	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.00	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.00	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.00	0.02
Texas	B12	0.00	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.00	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.04	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.00	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.00	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.00	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.00	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.00	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.00	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00