Southern California

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	232.8
Current RPI:	220
Expected SOS:	70
Current SOS:	60
Current Record:	6-18
Expected Record:	8-23
Current Conf Record:	1-10
Expected Conf Record:	3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.11%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-2
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	186
Expected OOC SOS:	61

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	169.0	0.08%
11-20	187.0	0.95%
10-21	202.5	5.19%
9-22	216.4	17.99%
8-23	229.7	33.14%
7-24	243.5	31.31%
6-25	257.0	11.33%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Cal St. Northridge (309.6)	BW	H	66-59	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Nebraska (117.6)	B10	H	61-64	L	0%	0.0
11-17	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	56-54	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Cal Poly (192.6)	BW	H	36-42	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	H	65-62	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	A	66-55	L	0%	0.0
11-26	South Carolina (172.1)	SEC	N	63-60	W	100%	0.0
11-30	UC Riverside (257.6)	BW	A	35-56	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Minnesota (68.5)	B10	A	55-40	L	0%	0.0
12-10	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	H	41-44	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Georgia (132.0)	SEC	H	59-63	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	H	83-59	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Kansas (8.8)	B12	H	47-63	L	0%	0.0
12-29	California (42.4)	P12	A	53-49	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Stanford (89.9)	P12	A	51-43	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	H	53-62	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Arizona (75.8)	P12	H	46-57	L	0%	0.0
1-15	UCLA (109.2)	P12	H	47-66	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Oregon (86.8)	P12	A	65-62	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	A	78-59	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Colorado (75.2)	P12	H	50-74	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Utah (272.4)	P12	H	62-45	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	A	60-53	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Washington (69.1)	P12	A	69-41	L	0%	0.0
2-9	California (42.4)	P12	H	0-0		16%	-10.9
2-12	Stanford (89.9)	P12	H	0-0		26%	-7.1
2-15	UCLA (109.2)	P12	A	0-0		12%	-13.0
2-23	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	0-0		8%	-15.1
2-25	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	A	0-0		43%	-1.8
3-1	Washington (69.1)	P12	H	0-0		29%	-6.1
3-3	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	H	0-0		45%	-1.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern California	P12	26.14	26.22	21.05	21.43	-15.13	-14.98
UCLA	P12	2.59	4.01	52.38	54.12	0.12	0.33
Washington St.	P12	2.64	3.98	47.62	46.00	-0.13	-0.32
Arizona	P12	2.60	3.96	65.22	66.67	0.79	1.32
California	P12	2.69	3.96	73.91	73.40	1.29	1.85
Washington	P12	2.60	3.96	68.18	65.18	0.95	1.20
Arizona St.	P12	2.59	3.96	27.27	28.09	-1.18	-1.73
Stanford	P12	2.55	3.88	68.18	66.95	0.93	1.31
Oregon	P12	2.59	2.40	68.18	63.31	0.94	0.64
Colorado	P12	2.59	2.39	65.00	61.26	0.78	0.54
Oregon St.	P12	2.54	2.37	61.90	61.84	0.61	0.56
Utah	P12	2.54	2.37	19.05	15.55	-1.57	-1.63
San Diego St.	MWC	2.36	1.91	85.00	77.24	1.65	1.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.37	1.89	81.82	80.80	1.51	1.16
New Mexico	MWC	2.32	1.89	80.95	80.35	1.44	1.15
UC Riverside	BW	2.28	1.81	45.00	41.12	-0.23	-0.32
Texas Christian	MWC	2.28	1.81	60.00	51.31	0.46	0.05
Cal Poly	BW	2.29	1.79	47.62	55.22	-0.11	0.19
Cal St. Northridge	BW	2.23	1.78	22.22	23.36	-1.24	-0.95
Georgia	SEC	2.18	1.75	42.86	39.17	-0.31	-0.38
Nebraska	B10	2.18	1.72	50.00	44.78	0.00	-0.18
Minnesota	B10	2.08	1.67	68.18	60.02	0.76	0.33
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.18	1.67	26.32	38.97	-1.03	-0.37
Kansas	B12	2.13	1.67	77.27	77.67	1.16	0.92
South Carolina	SEC	2.08	1.67	42.86	40.93	-0.30	-0.30
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.39	0.34	55.56	58.01	0.04	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.34	0.31	0.00	5.37	-0.34	-0.28
Colorado St.	MWC	0.29	0.31	66.67	60.80	0.10	0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.29	0.28	42.86	41.13	-0.04	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.24	0.28	35.00	35.26	-0.07	-0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.24	0.25	76.19	70.73	0.13	0.10
Air Force	MWC	0.24	0.25	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.28	0.25	39.13	44.52	-0.06	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.35	0.23	71.43	73.35	0.15	0.11
Pacific	BW	0.25	0.23	35.00	37.47	-0.07	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.25	0.20	65.00	66.70	0.07	0.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.35	0.20	47.83	47.87	-0.02	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.19	0.19	31.82	33.83	-0.07	-0.06
Nevada	WAC	0.19	0.16	80.95	76.42	0.11	0.09
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.19	0.16	69.57	65.87	0.07	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.19	0.16	82.61	77.63	0.12	0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.19	0.14	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.14	21.74	21.70	-0.08	-0.08
San Jose St.	WAC	0.19	0.14	27.27	26.95	-0.09	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.14	0.14	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.19	0.13	72.73	64.43	0.08	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.19	0.13	86.96	85.46	0.14	0.10
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.13	75.00	73.97	0.07	0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.19	0.13	73.91	75.49	0.09	0.07
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.13	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.14	0.13	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.19	0.13	95.83	92.57	0.17	0.11
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.11	28.57	26.30	-0.06	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.11	81.82	81.49	0.06	0.07
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.11	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.11	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.11	69.57	68.90	0.05	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.11	59.09	54.70	0.03	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.14	0.11	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.11	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.04
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.11	23.53	33.28	-0.05	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.11	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.11	78.26	72.34	0.02	0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.11	13.64	16.14	-0.06	-0.07
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.10	91.30	87.18	0.07	0.08
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.15	0.09	68.18	69.68	0.06	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.08	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.08	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.06
Idaho	WAC	0.09	0.08	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.08	30.00	33.20	-0.04	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.08	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.08	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.08	33.33	33.82	-0.03	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.14	0.08	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.08	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.08	25.00	28.52	-0.05	-0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.08	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.08	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.08	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.08	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.08	90.91	83.85	0.08	0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.09	0.08	8.33	10.86	-0.08	-0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.08	27.78	29.87	-0.04	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.08	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.08	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.08	31.82	25.98	-0.03	-0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.08	80.00	76.84	0.05	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.08	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.08	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.08	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.08	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.08	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.10	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.06	36.36	38.48	-0.03	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.00	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.09	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Elon	SC	0.10	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.08	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.09	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.03	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.05	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.05	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.05	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.05	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.05	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.09	0.05	33.33	41.31	-0.03	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.05	4.00	5.26	-0.09	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.05	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.05	69.57	65.15	0.00	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.05	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.05	59.09	57.28	0.00	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.05	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	85.71	82.18	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.05
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.05	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.05	33.33	35.97	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.04	0.05	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.01
Denver	SB	0.04	0.05	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.04	0.05	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.05	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.05	73.91	68.43	0.04	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.04	0.05	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.04	0.05	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.04	0.05	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.04	0.05	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.00	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.00	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.00	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.04	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.03	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.00	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.00	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.00	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.01	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00