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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:205.7
Current RPI:203
Expected SOS:105
Current SOS:71
Current Record:5-11
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:164
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12105.50.02%
15-13118.70.21%
14-14137.41.82%
13-15156.86.57%
12-16175.915.15%
11-17195.424.21%
10-18214.323.89%
9-19231.717.21%
8-20248.38.13%
7-21264.62.42%
6-22279.70.32%
5-23298.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Arizona St. (127.3)P12N63-82W100%0.0
11-18Oklahoma (145.5)B12N67-73W100%0.0
11-20Xavier (24.0)BEN59-67L0%0.0
11-26Xavier (24.0)BEA64-42L0%0.0
11-30George Mason (135.7)A10H50-54L0%0.0
12-3Wyoming (137.0)MWCA81-73L0%0.0
12-7South Dakota St. (265.3)SumH86-58W100%0.0
12-10North Dakota (229.5)BSkyH78-70W100%0.0
12-17Iowa (120.3)B10N69-46L0%0.0
12-21North Carolina (6.7)ACCA85-42L0%0.0
12-28Missouri St. (172.7)MVCH64-68L0%0.0
1-1Evansville (195.7)MVCA70-58L0%0.0
1-4Loyola Chicago (131.9)MVCA77-66L0%0.0
1-8Wichita St. (50.7)MVCH66-80L0%0.0
1-11Bradley (241.0)MVCA72-61L0%0.0
1-15Drake (298.4)MVCH79-60W100%0.0
1-18Loyola Chicago (131.9)MVCH0-050%0.1
1-21Southern Illinois (153.5)MVCA0-040%-2.8
1-25Evansville (195.7)MVCH0-063%3.8
1-28Drake (298.4)MVCA0-060%2.9
2-1Illinois St. (36.3)MVCA0-012%-13.2
2-4Indiana St. (206.3)MVCH0-067%4.8
2-8Southern Illinois (153.5)MVCH0-062%3.5
2-12Missouri St. (172.7)MVCA0-032%-5.3
2-15Bradley (241.0)MVCH0-078%8.5
2-18Wichita St. (50.7)MVCA0-05%-18.3
2-22Indiana St. (206.3)MVCA0-045%-1.5
2-25Illinois St. (36.3)MVCH0-027%-7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC26.6326.4527.9435.25-11.75-7.81
Wichita St.MVC3.594.6176.4781.391.902.89
BradleyMVC3.494.5835.2932.57-1.03-1.60
DrakeMVC3.484.5726.6725.70-1.63-2.22
Missouri St.MVC3.314.5558.8255.960.580.54
Southern IllinoisMVC0.364.5555.5649.980.04-0.00
EvansvilleMVC3.404.5443.7542.37-0.42-0.69
Illinois St.MVC0.364.5476.4777.490.192.50
Indiana St.MVC0.364.5435.2937.25-0.11-1.16
Loyola ChicagoMVC3.484.5462.5060.470.870.95
XavierBE6.253.5768.7565.252.341.09
South Dakota St.Sum3.411.9435.2935.14-1.00-0.58
George MasonA103.211.8562.5055.030.800.19
OklahomaB123.211.8546.6737.87-0.21-0.45
IowaB103.251.8255.5649.320.36-0.02
WyomingMWC3.211.8260.0053.950.640.14
North DakotaBSky3.211.8150.0056.290.000.23
Arizona St.P123.121.7952.9445.820.18-0.15
North CarolinaACC3.121.7983.3379.932.081.07
DePaulBE0.370.3342.1130.46-0.06-0.13
North Dakota St.Sum0.590.2562.5060.110.150.05
Iowa St.B120.180.2164.7161.910.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.180.2147.0655.40-0.010.02
Oral RobertsSum0.360.2117.6527.61-0.23-0.10
LouisvilleACC0.180.2183.3377.690.120.12
TulsaAmer0.090.1856.2551.250.010.00
TCUB120.180.1881.2565.210.120.05
Saint LouisA100.180.1829.4125.22-0.07-0.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.260.1827.7834.95-0.12-0.05
ButlerBE0.170.1884.2178.360.120.10
Wright St.Horz0.210.1658.8254.990.040.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1550.0047.550.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.180.1550.0045.100.00-0.01
USCP120.180.1584.2172.840.130.07
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1556.2553.900.020.01
CreightonBE0.260.1494.4484.740.230.10
Seton HallBE0.080.1466.6758.210.030.02
Fresno St.MWC0.200.1356.2552.000.020.01
South DakotaSum0.180.1357.8957.120.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1221.4336.57-0.11-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.1266.6766.780.030.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.1268.7569.250.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.1235.2942.41-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1255.5654.690.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1218.7535.75-0.11-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1257.1453.400.000.01
ToledoMAC0.180.1250.0051.640.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.100.1243.7543.67-0.01-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1256.2562.950.020.03
Air ForceMWC0.180.1243.7537.53-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.090.1262.5054.170.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.1256.2553.650.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.1243.7548.36-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1255.5655.680.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1277.7877.110.050.07
CaliforniaP120.270.1272.2266.070.120.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1266.6750.950.060.00
StanfordP120.090.1252.9447.220.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.090.1250.0035.490.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.170.1216.6718.41-0.12-0.08
BaylorB120.270.1293.7580.460.240.07
ClemsonACC0.350.1264.7160.750.100.02
GeorgetownBE0.170.1252.6348.240.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.1266.6761.490.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.170.1265.0055.360.050.01
St. John'sBE0.170.1245.0038.60-0.02-0.03
VillanovaBE0.170.1294.7489.170.160.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1033.3342.19-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.210.1053.8554.520.020.01
IdahoBSky0.170.1035.7144.07-0.05-0.01
MontanaBSky0.320.1052.6360.450.020.02
UMKCWAC0.180.0938.8940.01-0.04-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.0956.2559.170.020.02
DenverSum0.100.0961.1157.830.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.0923.5328.53-0.09-0.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0940.0044.09-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.0950.0051.420.000.00
NevadaMWC0.180.0983.3378.320.120.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0936.8448.41-0.02-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.170.0922.2236.06-0.09-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0963.1657.750.020.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0978.9570.150.000.04
DavidsonA100.170.0956.2555.710.020.01
TulaneAmer0.270.0923.5320.62-0.14-0.05
WisconsinB100.180.0982.3581.030.120.05
ColoradoP120.260.0952.9454.280.020.01
PurdueB100.250.0977.7876.220.140.05
UtahP120.260.0966.6764.720.090.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0981.2576.190.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.260.0958.8252.990.050.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.076.6718.58-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.0717.6521.39-0.08-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.0721.4326.05-0.07-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.120.0712.5019.03-0.09-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0753.8564.140.000.02
IonaMAAC0.100.0655.5660.550.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0631.2545.28-0.04-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0611.1123.11-0.08-0.03
UC DavisBW0.100.0652.9454.860.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0623.5328.53-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0637.5036.25-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0650.0049.550.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0682.3582.770.060.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0631.2539.84-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0638.8939.13-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0661.1158.650.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.170.0650.0058.430.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0688.2484.300.070.04
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0626.6727.57-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0647.3745.21-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.930.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.066.2511.84-0.08-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0676.4768.380.000.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0629.4127.56-0.04-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0650.0047.550.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.090.0644.4445.47-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0655.5653.980.010.00
KansasB120.100.0694.4481.600.090.04
Kansas St.B120.100.0676.4759.430.050.01
LSUSEC0.090.0656.2539.400.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0612.5033.74-0.07-0.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0661.1159.210.020.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0658.8252.810.020.00
RichmondA100.000.0664.7158.460.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0660.0061.150.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0623.5324.37-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0614.2929.37-0.06-0.02
TexasB120.000.0641.1835.95-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.220.000.02
Texas TechB120.100.0676.4763.780.050.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0668.7570.370.030.02
VCUA100.090.0677.7873.920.050.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0688.2484.630.000.04
WoffordSC0.090.0626.6739.99-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.180.0672.2264.140.080.02
Penn St.B100.090.0661.1150.470.020.00
ArizonaP120.090.0688.8983.100.070.04
BuffaloMAC0.170.0633.3341.38-0.06-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0688.2486.430.000.04
DukeACC0.000.0677.7873.720.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0664.7154.360.000.01
IndianaB100.080.0666.6763.930.030.02
KentuckySEC0.170.0688.2487.320.130.04
LehighPat0.170.0656.2566.290.020.02
MarylandB100.000.0688.2471.840.000.03
MissouriSEC0.170.0631.2526.61-0.07-0.03
NebraskaB100.080.0650.0043.370.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0688.8977.800.060.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6753.190.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0694.7489.330.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.0647.0642.27-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0655.5643.070.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.0453.3361.470.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.120.0429.4138.91-0.05-0.01
North FloridaASun0.120.0418.7530.20-0.08-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.0320.0024.58-0.06-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0375.0076.810.040.02
PacificWCC0.100.0338.8934.94-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.100.0347.0648.10-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0330.7736.76-0.04-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.0364.7154.930.030.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0076.040.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0350.0042.110.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0382.3576.960.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0335.2931.83-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0372.2271.210.040.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0327.7830.30-0.04-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0350.0051.780.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0326.6725.63-0.04-0.01
MercerSC0.090.0335.2944.06-0.03-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0325.0033.65-0.05-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0342.8648.07-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0317.6535.25-0.06-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0364.7167.000.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0364.7161.890.030.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0350.0052.220.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0034.750.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0320.0029.47-0.05-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0322.2230.94-0.05-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0375.0074.760.040.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0317.6529.59-0.05-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0388.8978.090.060.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0364.7147.180.02-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0329.4134.21-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0063.150.000.01
MichiganB100.080.0366.6758.160.030.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0373.6873.940.040.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0388.2484.380.070.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0378.9569.120.050.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0361.1156.560.000.00
OregonP120.000.0388.2482.770.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0317.6515.00-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0337.5043.12-0.02-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0325.0031.95-0.04-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0325.0027.36-0.04-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0357.8952.840.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0350.0050.990.000.00
The CitadelSC0.090.0335.2930.57-0.03-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0333.3333.47-0.03-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0376.4762.000.000.01