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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:25.7
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:106
Current SOS:60
Current Record:10-1
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-110.40.40%
28-212.94.29%
27-315.811.65%
26-419.221.90%
25-523.624.44%
24-629.419.65%
23-737.211.25%
22-847.44.62%
21-957.71.31%
20-1073.80.39%
19-1189.60.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15North Dakota (268.5)BSkyH64-52W100%0.0
11-18Stephen F. Austin (68.4)SlndA77-79W100%0.0
11-20Morgan St. (305.3)MEACH73-53W100%0.0
11-22North Florida (153.0)ASunH66-49W100%0.0
11-25Virginia Tech (205.5)ACCN54-73W100%0.0
11-26Northwestern (155.0)B10N42-61W100%0.0
11-30Richmond (74.7)A10H55-50W100%0.0
12-6George Mason (192.5)A10H71-65W100%0.0
12-10Denver (195.3)SumA55-65W100%0.0
12-13VCU (15.8)A10A93-87L0%0.0
12-20Iowa (60.5)B10N44-56W100%0.0
12-28South Dakota St. (126.9)SumH0-091%15.8
1-1Evansville (69.6)MVCA0-049%-0.3
1-4Loyola Chicago (131.5)MVCH0-087%13.3
1-7Southern Illinois (233.2)MVCH0-094%18.0
1-10Drake (288.9)MVCA0-092%16.3
1-13Bradley (270.1)MVCA0-085%12.1
1-18Missouri St. (213.9)MVCH0-094%18.5
1-21Indiana St. (267.8)MVCH0-097%21.7
1-25Illinois St. (85.4)MVCA0-057%2.0
1-28Southern Illinois (233.2)MVCA0-079%9.4
1-31Wichita St. (20.0)MVCH0-056%1.8
2-3Indiana St. (267.8)MVCA0-087%13.2
2-7Drake (288.9)MVCH0-098%24.9
2-11Illinois St. (85.4)MVCH0-082%10.6
2-15Missouri St. (213.9)MVCA0-080%9.9
2-18Loyola Chicago (131.5)MVCA0-066%4.8
2-21Bradley (270.1)MVCH0-096%20.6
2-25Evansville (69.6)MVCH0-076%8.3
2-28Wichita St. (20.0)MVCA0-028%-6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC27.4526.3993.6284.8823.9518.41
DrakeMVC0.284.3018.1820.63-0.18-2.53
Illinois St.MVC0.214.3060.0063.680.041.18
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.2754.5547.340.00-0.23
BradleyMVC0.004.2730.0034.05-0.00-1.36
EvansvilleMVC0.004.2780.0075.670.002.19
Indiana St.MVC0.004.2730.0031.56-0.00-1.58
Missouri St.MVC0.004.2733.3339.13-0.00-0.93
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.2675.0061.570.000.99
Wichita St.MVC0.004.2687.5087.310.003.18
VCUA104.551.8470.0075.211.820.93
RichmondA104.551.7866.6759.891.520.35
George MasonA104.551.7737.5030.81-1.14-0.68
North DakotaBSky4.551.7528.5735.71-1.95-0.50
South Dakota St.Sum0.281.7570.0061.750.110.41
IowaB104.551.7572.7361.142.070.39
NorthwesternB104.771.7570.0044.121.91-0.21
DenverSum4.551.7345.4553.13-0.410.11
North FloridaASun4.751.7255.5660.050.530.35
Virginia TechACC4.731.6966.6739.621.58-0.35
Morgan St.MEAC4.771.6918.1836.42-3.04-0.46
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.551.6775.0080.982.271.03
Saint LouisA100.000.4063.6436.240.00-0.11
IUPUISum0.000.3227.2728.77-0.00-0.13
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2440.0043.53-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.2360.0064.830.000.07
MemphisAmer0.250.2160.0061.850.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2018.1820.68-0.00-0.12
IPFWSum0.000.1750.0054.440.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.380.1733.3334.44-0.13-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.470.1750.0054.280.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.250.1720.0029.06-0.15-0.07
DavidsonA100.000.1688.8976.830.000.09
George WashingtonA100.000.1666.6765.780.000.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1550.0055.090.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1466.6766.950.000.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.140.0013.95-0.19-0.10
Old DominionCUSA0.690.1490.0082.040.550.09
IllinoisB100.000.1475.0065.050.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1214.2930.32-0.00-0.05
Texas TechB120.000.1290.0055.400.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1260.0056.010.000.01
UtahP120.280.1280.0080.490.170.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1216.6743.50-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.1281.8263.950.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1277.7858.610.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1240.0042.88-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1233.3343.01-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1237.5031.93-0.00-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1240.0046.04-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.1160.0034.330.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.1177.7878.340.000.07
New OrleansSlnd0.190.1120.0046.45-0.11-0.01
BelmontOVC0.400.1163.6464.930.110.03
Miami OHMAC0.430.1130.0028.63-0.17-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1160.0042.970.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0014.49-0.00-0.08
MinnesotaB100.280.1180.0068.200.170.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1177.7865.410.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.430.1138.4644.44-0.10-0.01
Penn St.B100.420.1191.6755.080.350.01
WisconsinB100.000.1190.9188.760.000.08
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0914.2914.63-0.00-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.0970.0052.050.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0977.7869.870.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0937.5053.02-0.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.190.09100.0078.190.190.05
Idaho St.BSky0.190.0911.1129.44-0.15-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.280.0928.5761.90-0.120.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0920.0040.46-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0954.5548.690.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0937.5044.53-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.210.0916.6736.42-0.14-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0933.3343.26-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.250.0960.0069.180.050.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0960.0057.740.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.75-0.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.190.0944.4448.17-0.02-0.00
ElonCAA0.620.0844.4451.04-0.070.00
LibertyBSth0.640.0825.0035.29-0.32-0.02
BrownIvy0.210.0840.0034.38-0.04-0.03
ButlerBE0.210.0872.7368.580.090.03
Central MichiganMAC0.210.0885.7170.650.150.03
Iowa St.B120.190.0890.0065.820.150.03
Western MichiganMAC0.210.0855.5652.210.020.00
Florida St.ACC0.230.0854.5541.660.02-0.01
PurdueB100.230.0866.6759.240.080.02
DaytonA100.000.0880.0069.340.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0837.5033.78-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0828.5727.36-0.00-0.04
La SalleA100.000.0854.5553.370.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0854.5551.400.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0866.6773.340.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.380.0850.0051.710.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0850.0040.340.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6744.010.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0881.8282.150.000.05
SyracuseACC0.190.0860.0057.780.040.01
VirginiaACC0.210.08100.0089.960.210.06
DetroitHorz0.000.0640.0047.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.65-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3361.51-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8956.070.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0637.5035.62-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0637.5035.77-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.160.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0680.0076.780.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.51-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.70-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2936.23-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0630.0039.53-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0622.2247.34-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0620.0026.61-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3346.57-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0637.5056.99-0.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0616.6739.50-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0637.5037.29-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0655.5673.940.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0026.86-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.0644.4449.08-0.03-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0663.6467.200.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0645.4530.45-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.0618.1830.67-0.14-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0618.1822.91-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.230.060.0011.84-0.23-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0049.390.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.11-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.220.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0627.2729.51-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.220.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.93-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0050.570.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0038.92-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0645.4552.17-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0068.320.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6764.890.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0035.75-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5656.250.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8272.960.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.17-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.440.0630.0037.19-0.18-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.0662.5057.910.050.01
West VirginiaB120.250.0690.9170.260.210.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.31-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.0654.5559.550.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0612.5026.95-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6763.060.000.01
HowardMEAC0.230.0530.0043.77-0.09-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.210.0580.0053.820.120.00
IndianaB100.000.0581.8263.040.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0591.6772.610.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0581.8266.060.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.190.0572.7374.520.090.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.230.0575.0061.160.110.01
PepperdineWCC0.420.0566.6755.760.140.01
RadfordBSth0.450.0560.0062.090.090.01
RutgersB100.000.0554.5532.610.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0545.4537.63-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.250.0390.0073.480.200.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7871.240.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0316.6733.12-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0016.07-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0360.0076.800.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.250.0336.3650.65-0.070.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0320.0044.35-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.31-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.250.0350.0041.130.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.250.030.0039.01-0.25-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.230.0366.6765.440.080.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.83-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.280.0330.0040.39-0.11-0.01
Texas St.SB0.250.0350.0051.190.000.00
XavierBE0.250.0372.7367.750.110.01
BryantNEC0.190.0337.5050.46-0.050.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.0345.4545.06-0.02-0.00
CornellIvy0.250.0350.0046.480.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.250.0372.7361.760.110.01
OklahomaB120.000.0370.0062.800.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.250.0333.3341.93-0.08-0.00
StanfordP120.190.0366.6758.210.060.00
WyomingMWC0.190.0380.0073.560.110.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.70-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.190.0362.5041.050.05-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.160.000.01
RiderMAAC0.190.0350.0052.960.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.26-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.54-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.190.0360.0047.200.04-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.030.0028.78-0.23-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.030.0026.25-0.19-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.230.0333.3338.71-0.08-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0360.0038.770.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.210.0370.0064.920.080.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.870.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0340.0051.94-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.740.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.340.000.01
High PointBSth0.230.0366.6761.820.080.01
James MadisonCAA0.230.0363.6456.310.060.00
LongwoodBSth0.190.0320.0025.91-0.11-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.350.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.039.0917.38-0.17-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0370.0059.740.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.0342.8633.60-0.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6776.600.000.01
OregonP120.210.0370.0057.400.080.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0052.280.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.70-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.230.030.0032.85-0.23-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.210.0355.5646.470.02-0.00
TexasB120.190.0390.9180.170.150.02
The CitadelSC0.230.0314.2931.52-0.16-0.01
ToledoMAC0.210.0363.6461.500.060.01
UMBCAE0.190.0318.1825.24-0.12-0.01
VillanovaBE0.210.03100.0083.420.210.02
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.75-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.230.0357.1457.190.030.00