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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:163.0
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:99
Current SOS:99
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:148
Expected OOC SOS:28



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16163.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Arizona St. (125.0)P12N63-82W100%0.0
11-18Oklahoma (168.0)B12N67-73W100%0.0
11-20Xavier (37.0)BEN59-67L0%0.0
11-26Xavier (37.0)BEA64-42L0%0.0
11-30George Mason (103.0)A10H50-54L0%0.0
12-3Wyoming (152.0)MWCA81-73L0%0.0
12-7South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH86-58W100%0.0
12-10North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH78-70W100%0.0
12-17Iowa (81.0)B10N69-46L0%0.0
12-21North Carolina (5.0)ACCA85-42L0%0.0
12-28Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH64-68L0%0.0
1-1Evansville (188.0)MVCA70-58L0%0.0
1-4Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA77-66L0%0.0
1-8Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH66-80L0%0.0
1-11Bradley (220.0)MVCA72-61L0%0.0
1-15Drake (314.0)MVCH79-60W100%0.0
1-18Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH72-69W100%0.0
1-21Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA57-58W100%0.0
1-25Evansville (188.0)MVCH61-54W100%0.0
1-28Drake (314.0)MVCA63-71W100%0.0
2-1Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA57-51L0%0.0
2-4Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH65-60W100%0.0
2-8Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH49-41W100%0.0
2-12Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA52-55W100%0.0
2-15Bradley (220.0)MVCH64-61W100%0.0
2-18Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA73-44L0%0.0
2-22Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA69-59L0%0.0
2-25Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH42-63L0%0.0
3-3Missouri St. (210.0)MVCN64-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC26.4526.4544.0044.00-3.17-3.17
Missouri St.MVC6.116.1148.2848.28-0.21-0.21
Wichita St.MVC4.644.6487.1087.103.443.44
Illinois St.MVC4.554.5580.0080.002.732.73
BradleyMVC4.534.5336.6736.67-1.21-1.21
Southern IllinoisMVC4.504.5053.3353.330.300.30
EvansvilleMVC4.504.5044.8344.83-0.47-0.47
DrakeMVC4.464.4622.2222.22-2.48-2.48
Indiana St.MVC4.444.4432.1432.14-1.59-1.59
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.444.4453.5753.570.320.32
XavierBE3.453.4559.3859.380.650.65
South Dakota St.Sum1.861.8651.6151.610.060.06
George MasonA101.781.7858.0658.060.290.29
OklahomaB121.781.7836.6736.67-0.47-0.47
IowaB101.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
North DakotaBSky1.751.7570.3770.370.710.71
WyomingMWC1.751.7551.7251.720.060.06
Arizona St.P121.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
North CarolinaACC1.721.7278.1278.120.970.97
DePaulBE0.400.4028.1228.12-0.18-0.18
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.2560.7160.710.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.220.2221.4321.43-0.13-0.13
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.220.2241.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
Iowa St.B120.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
TCUB120.190.1954.5554.550.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.190.1975.0075.000.090.09
CreightonBE0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Air ForceMWC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
USCP120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Saint LouisA100.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
South DakotaSum0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
UNLVMWC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.11-0.11
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Seton HallBE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
IdahoBSky0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
IUPUISum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
BaylorB120.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Weber St.BSky0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01