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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:63.2
Current RPI:215
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:296
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:82



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-28.60.05%
26-311.50.30%
25-416.31.28%
24-521.83.29%
23-629.37.60%
22-737.112.60%
21-847.416.39%
20-958.618.64%
19-1073.115.61%
18-1188.111.21%
17-12104.67.11%
16-13124.13.75%
15-14138.51.45%
14-15162.00.48%
13-16177.70.19%
12-17205.30.03%
11-18225.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15North Dakota (235.2)BSkyH64-52W100%0.0
11-18Stephen F. Austin (118.0)SlndA77-79W100%0.0
11-20Morgan St. (274.9)MEACH73-53W100%0.0
11-22North Florida (208.4)ASunH0-087%13.3
11-25Virginia Tech (184.3)ACCN0-070%6.3
11-30Richmond (76.8)A10H0-061%3.5
12-6George Mason (223.1)A10H0-090%15.3
12-10Denver (135.7)SumA0-053%1.0
12-13VCU (21.2)A10A0-023%-9.1
12-20Iowa (29.3)B10N0-026%-7.6
12-28South Dakota St. (180.4)SumH0-083%11.5
1-1Evansville (102.7)MVCA0-048%-0.7
1-4Loyola Chicago (241.1)MVCH0-089%14.7
1-7Southern Illinois (172.8)MVCH0-081%10.4
1-10Drake (256.1)MVCA0-077%8.9
1-13Bradley (283.9)MVCA0-081%10.5
1-18Missouri St. (115.1)MVCH0-073%7.3
1-21Indiana St. (158.4)MVCH0-079%9.6
1-25Illinois St. (121.4)MVCA0-052%0.6
1-28Southern Illinois (172.8)MVCA0-061%3.2
1-31Wichita St. (16.8)MVCH0-039%-3.5
2-3Indiana St. (158.4)MVCA0-058%2.4
2-7Drake (256.1)MVCH0-091%16.1
2-11Illinois St. (121.4)MVCH0-074%7.7
2-15Missouri St. (115.1)MVCA0-050%0.1
2-18Loyola Chicago (241.1)MVCA0-073%7.5
2-21Bradley (283.9)MVCH0-093%17.7
2-25Evansville (102.7)MVCH0-071%6.5
2-28Wichita St. (16.8)MVCA0-019%-10.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC36.1126.45100.0068.8236.119.95
DrakeMVC0.004.480.0029.78-0.00-1.81
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4750.0055.980.000.53
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4533.3352.95-0.000.26
BradleyMVC0.004.440.0026.29-0.00-2.11
Indiana St.MVC0.004.4450.0052.860.000.25
EvansvilleMVC0.004.44100.0065.220.001.35
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.440.0039.85-0.00-0.90
Missouri St.MVC0.004.44100.0059.170.000.81
Wichita St.MVC0.004.44100.0085.110.003.12
VCUA100.001.91100.0074.680.000.94
RichmondA100.001.8450.0063.460.000.50
George MasonA100.001.8425.0022.53-0.00-1.01
North DakotaBSky16.671.810.0044.81-16.67-0.19
South Dakota St.Sum4.171.8133.3350.38-1.390.01
DenverSum0.001.7950.0063.010.000.46
IowaB100.001.7650.0067.640.000.62
Virginia TechACC0.001.75100.0041.770.00-0.29
Morgan St.MEAC16.671.750.0038.79-16.67-0.39
North FloridaASun0.001.750.0050.47-0.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd16.671.720.0070.13-16.670.69
Saint LouisA100.000.36100.0066.070.000.12
IUPUISum0.000.3333.3330.78-0.00-0.13
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2533.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.2450.0072.260.000.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.180.0053.38-0.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.1850.0065.390.000.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1833.3336.31-0.00-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1833.3347.78-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.17100.0048.380.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1766.6777.370.000.10
MemphisAmer0.000.160.0065.36-0.000.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.150.0031.68-0.00-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1550.0035.570.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.150.0029.88-0.00-0.06
Texas TechB120.000.1350.0043.560.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1366.6752.000.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.130.0034.26-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0024.22-0.00-0.06
UtahP120.000.1366.6770.360.000.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1233.3335.37-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0037.800.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.1250.0072.160.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.12100.0067.860.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.120.0041.63-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.120.0036.84-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0034.57-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.120.0034.37-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1233.3333.43-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1225.0029.11-0.00-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.1250.0050.390.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0027.72-0.00-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0029.61-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.10100.0055.900.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0062.15-0.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.09100.0071.730.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.09100.0064.330.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.090.0055.60-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0950.0052.540.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0062.840.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0950.0047.220.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0966.6766.940.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0950.0059.030.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6771.300.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.090.0028.50-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.20-0.00-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0062.910.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0950.0056.300.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.630.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0043.710.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.310.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.090.0051.78-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.090.0034.73-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.09100.0055.910.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.09100.0063.880.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.09100.0077.160.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0053.060.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0933.3359.35-0.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0061.270.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0950.0063.730.000.02
Penn St.B102.780.0975.0045.211.39-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0070.210.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.060.0051.04-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0055.45-0.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.900.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.99-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.67-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0041.53-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0033.17-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.060.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3328.03-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.640.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3365.68-0.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.27-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.20-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0061.070.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0057.560.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.16-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0035.880.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.060.0037.20-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.40-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0050.220.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0028.13-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3344.98-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0016.72-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3338.39-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0054.180.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0045.780.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6755.230.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.060.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0024.76-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.24-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0047.54-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0051.300.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3338.44-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0046.900.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.240.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6754.260.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0650.0041.040.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.16-0.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.250.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.570.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.540.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0065.86-0.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0048.22-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0050.390.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0070.600.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.380.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0034.15-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0027.18-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.200.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0035.17-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0650.0057.440.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0066.050.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3344.86-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0051.030.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.590.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0051.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0081.110.000.03
BaylorB120.000.03100.0068.940.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0020.87-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3352.91-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.31-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.83-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0055.220.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00
XavierBE4.170.03100.0076.434.170.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0033.60-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0041.64-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0061.420.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0062.010.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0059.230.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3349.73-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0029.380.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.540.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3343.51-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0040.300.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.750.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.29-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.360.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3336.04-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.91-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.03100.0068.290.000.01
TowsonCAA2.780.0366.6745.850.93-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0027.23-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0056.150.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.68-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.690.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0064.850.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.380.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.030.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.690.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.370.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.250.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.000.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.74-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0067.360.000.01
VMISC0.000.0350.0043.730.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0058.330.000.00
IndianaB100.000.03100.0063.850.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6747.240.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0350.0021.230.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.03100.0063.680.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0036.270.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.130.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.60-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0045.610.00-0.00