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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:99.9
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:99
Current SOS:1
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:43



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-523.00.03%
22-631.50.20%
21-738.50.81%
20-847.32.91%
19-958.17.78%
18-1070.113.00%
17-1184.218.04%
16-1299.119.69%
15-13114.716.05%
14-14131.411.24%
13-15150.66.07%
12-16170.02.82%
11-17191.11.08%
10-18210.90.17%
9-19229.00.08%
8-20254.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Arizona St. (165.8)P12N63-82W100%0.0
11-18Oklahoma (70.0)B12N67-73W100%0.0
11-20Xavier (11.9)BEN59-67L0%0.0
11-26Xavier (11.9)BEA64-42L0%0.0
11-30George Mason (200.3)A10H50-54L0%0.0
12-3Wyoming (182.2)MWCA0-064%4.2
12-7South Dakota St. (254.3)SumH0-088%13.9
12-10North Dakota (231.9)BSkyH0-087%13.5
12-17Iowa (164.3)B10N0-057%2.0
12-21North Carolina (5.9)ACCA0-06%-18.6
12-28Missouri St. (124.0)MVCH0-063%3.9
1-1Evansville (205.3)MVCA0-066%4.8
1-4Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCA0-054%1.2
1-8Wichita St. (34.2)MVCH0-021%-9.7
1-11Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-080%10.1
1-15Drake (306.7)MVCH0-093%17.6
1-18Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCH0-073%7.4
1-21Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCA0-060%3.1
1-25Evansville (205.3)MVCH0-082%11.0
1-28Drake (306.7)MVCA0-083%11.4
2-1Illinois St. (74.7)MVCA0-034%-4.8
2-4Indiana St. (156.7)MVCH0-072%7.0
2-8Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCH0-078%9.2
2-12Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-043%-2.3
2-15Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-091%16.3
2-18Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA0-09%-15.9
2-22Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA0-053%0.8
2-25Illinois St. (74.7)MVCH0-055%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC30.1226.4740.0058.07-6.024.27
Wichita St.MVC0.004.6271.4386.110.003.34
BradleyMVC0.714.5950.0030.350.00-1.80
DrakeMVC0.004.580.0022.01-0.00-2.57
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.5650.0047.790.00-0.20
EvansvilleMVC0.004.5633.3341.44-0.00-0.78
Indiana St.MVC0.004.5633.3347.47-0.00-0.23
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.5666.6755.750.000.52
Missouri St.MVC0.004.5675.0066.270.001.48
Illinois St.MVC0.004.5550.0067.020.001.55
XavierBE20.003.57100.0073.0620.001.65
South Dakota St.Sum0.001.9414.2938.42-0.00-0.45
George MasonA1010.001.8550.0040.970.00-0.33
OklahomaB1210.001.85100.0053.7110.000.14
IowaB100.001.8242.8644.36-0.00-0.21
WyomingMWC0.001.8260.0049.040.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.001.8133.3354.96-0.000.18
Arizona St.P1210.001.7966.6737.253.33-0.46
North CarolinaACC0.001.7985.7179.550.001.06
DePaulBE0.000.2780.0035.960.00-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum1.430.2550.0061.810.000.06
Murray St.OVC0.000.2242.8661.90-0.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.210.0019.30-0.00-0.13
Iowa St.B120.000.2171.4368.970.000.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.2185.7175.950.000.11
TCUB120.000.19100.0059.480.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1850.0038.430.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1833.3326.75-0.00-0.08
ButlerBE0.000.18100.0075.690.000.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1650.0046.780.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1671.4355.750.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.1571.4349.590.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1583.3356.560.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.14100.0076.650.000.08
Seton HallBE0.000.1471.4354.520.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1371.4358.670.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1366.6770.930.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.1328.5747.72-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1360.0039.610.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1375.0054.320.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1360.0039.200.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0042.710.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1350.0058.980.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1357.1447.220.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.1350.0053.560.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1283.3361.490.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0032.39-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.120.0038.35-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1242.8645.30-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1242.8650.36-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1285.7174.430.000.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1275.0074.990.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1250.0052.330.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0017.30-0.00-0.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1250.0043.490.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1283.3363.610.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1271.4350.570.000.00
StanfordP120.000.1275.0059.100.000.02
USCP120.000.12100.0075.380.000.06
Washington St.P120.000.1250.0036.820.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.12100.0074.460.000.06
ClemsonACC2.260.1266.6753.460.750.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1250.0047.560.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1271.4356.280.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1228.5733.92-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0083.120.000.08
MarquetteBE0.000.1271.4363.090.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.830.1016.6740.71-0.56-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.710.1025.0040.37-0.36-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.1014.2947.44-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1040.0050.88-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0950.0050.940.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0933.3341.11-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6751.460.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0933.3333.15-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0975.0070.470.000.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.710.0912.5048.98-0.54-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.090.0039.35-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0985.7165.670.000.03
DavidsonA100.710.0983.3368.880.480.03
TulaneAmer1.550.0914.2926.81-1.11-0.04
WisconsinB100.000.0975.0073.840.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0971.4359.850.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0971.4374.450.000.04
UtahP120.000.0975.0061.040.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0082.550.000.06
Wake ForestACC0.000.0971.4352.370.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0714.2929.81-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0714.2928.15-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.070.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0023.26-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0720.0054.94-0.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0640.0037.44-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
BuffaloMAC1.430.0640.0050.91-0.290.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
KentuckySEC0.710.06100.0086.250.710.04
LehighPat1.430.0633.3367.01-0.480.02
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
MissouriSEC1.430.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0450.0059.670.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0450.0062.460.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0414.2931.71-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.830.0325.0053.29-0.420.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.710.0383.3376.370.480.02
James MadisonCAA0.710.030.0028.15-0.71-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.710.0350.0051.820.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.830.030.0034.01-0.83-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
TowsonCAA0.710.0350.0054.490.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.710.0333.3335.92-0.24-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0366.6769.810.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.710.0340.0027.05-0.14-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01