Northern Iowa

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	60.5
Current RPI:	49
Expected SOS:	53
Current SOS:	24
Current Record:	15-9
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	6-7
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	5.54%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-1
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	13
Expected OOC SOS:	19

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-9	35.0	1.37%
20-10	43.4	13.66%
19-11	53.3	33.68%
18-12	64.9	33.72%
17-13	78.6	14.70%
16-14	92.2	2.75%
15-15	109.5	0.11%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Old Dominion (126.1)	CAA	A	46-63	W	100%	0.0
11-14	St. Mary's (16.3)	WCC	A	57-41	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	H	78-69	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	H	59-39	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	N	64-60	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Providence (146.8)	BE	N	62-79	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	A	62-69	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	H	83-77	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Iowa (139.5)	B10	H	80-60	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	H	67-51	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	H	59-76	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Illinois St. (109.5)	MVC	A	65-61	L	0%	0.0
1-1	Evansville (156.6)	MVC	H	65-76	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Indiana St. (133.0)	MVC	H	65-48	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Drake (135.2)	MVC	A	68-83	W	100%	0.0
1-10	Creighton (21.0)	MVC	A	63-60	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	H	61-60	W	100%	0.0
1-15	Bradley (248.0)	MVC	A	78-67	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Wichita St. (17.4)	MVC	H	68-71	L	0%	0.0
1-22	Drake (135.2)	MVC	H	66-52	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Indiana St. (133.0)	MVC	A	59-54	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	A	63-51	L	0%	0.0
1-31	Southern Illinois (227.1)	MVC	H	58-49	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Creighton (21.0)	MVC	H	65-62	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Wichita St. (17.4)	MVC	A	0-0		17%	-10.6
2-11	Illinois St. (109.5)	MVC	H	0-0		66%	4.4
2-15	Evansville (156.6)	MVC	A	0-0		56%	1.7
2-18	Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)	CAA	A	0-0		37%	-3.5
2-22	Bradley (248.0)	MVC	H	0-0		94%	17.0
2-25	Southern Illinois (227.1)	MVC	A	0-0		75%	7.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Iowa	MVC	26.44	26.36	61.00	62.00	5.82	6.33
Missouri St.	MVC	4.93	4.30	54.55	57.71	0.45	0.66
Drake	MVC	5.01	4.29	57.14	53.80	0.72	0.33
Bradley	MVC	2.89	4.27	20.83	22.92	-1.69	-2.32
Creighton	MVC	4.92	4.27	90.91	87.94	4.02	3.24
Illinois St.	MVC	2.88	4.24	60.87	61.69	0.63	0.99
Indiana St.	MVC	4.84	4.24	57.14	54.53	0.69	0.38
Southern Illinois	MVC	2.79	4.24	36.36	33.52	-0.76	-1.40
Wichita St.	MVC	2.84	4.24	81.82	79.59	1.81	2.51
Evansville	MVC	2.79	4.23	42.86	41.87	-0.40	-0.69
Iowa St.	B12	2.41	1.87	77.27	70.71	1.31	0.77
Iowa	B10	2.31	1.81	56.52	51.09	0.30	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	2.22	1.78	36.36	38.57	-0.61	-0.41
Old Dominion	CAA	2.08	1.78	62.50	60.23	0.52	0.36
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.22	1.75	31.58	32.80	-0.82	-0.60
St. Mary's	WCC	2.17	1.72	90.48	87.29	1.76	1.28
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.04	1.72	80.00	78.57	0.02	0.98
Colorado St.	MWC	2.14	1.70	70.00	63.05	0.85	0.44
Providence	BE	2.13	1.69	59.09	51.95	0.39	0.07
Rice	CUSA	2.13	1.69	50.00	48.18	0.00	-0.06
Ohio	MAC	2.08	1.67	80.95	76.41	1.29	0.88
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	2.08	1.67	59.09	59.79	0.38	0.33
Chicago St.	GWC	0.26	0.25	4.76	9.95	-0.24	-0.20
Tulsa	CUSA	0.27	0.23	60.87	59.05	0.06	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.27	0.20	42.86	41.13	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.27	0.20	33.33	37.25	-0.09	-0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.17	0.19	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.14	0.17	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.18	0.17	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.16	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.15	0.15	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.15	76.19	70.73	0.08	0.06
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.18	0.14	5.26	7.30	-0.16	-0.12
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.14	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.18	0.14	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.13	0.14	75.00	73.97	0.07	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.12	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.12	30.00	30.06	-0.04	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.12	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.12	81.82	81.03	0.09	0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.14	0.12	85.71	78.05	0.10	0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.12	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.18	0.11	8.70	8.99	-0.15	-0.09
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.18	0.11	35.00	39.38	-0.05	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.11	40.91	42.96	-0.03	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.11	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.18	0.11	8.70	11.67	-0.15	-0.09
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.11	26.32	29.71	-0.04	-0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.11	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.11	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.18	0.11	69.57	61.31	0.07	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.11	31.82	25.98	-0.05	-0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.11	34.78	34.48	-0.01	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.11	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.11	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.13	0.11	80.95	76.42	0.08	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.11	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.11	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.11	79.17	78.10	0.02	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.11	76.00	72.50	0.04	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.11	72.73	66.81	0.06	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.11	4.00	5.26	-0.08	-0.10
William & Mary	CAA	0.04	0.11	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.08
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.10	0.09	40.91	44.03	-0.02	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.10	0.09	70.00	73.28	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.09	80.00	76.84	0.06	0.05
Denver	SB	0.15	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.06	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.09	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.09	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.09	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.09	79.17	75.98	0.08	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	21.74	21.70	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	66.67	62.65	0.03	0.02
Temple	A10	0.09	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.09	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.09	19.05	22.37	-0.09	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.14	0.09	25.00	28.52	-0.07	-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.14	0.09	18.18	21.13	-0.09	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.08	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.08	27.78	29.87	-0.06	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.08	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.09	0.08	34.78	33.46	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.08	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.08	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.06
Texas	B12	0.14	0.08	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.08	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.08	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.08	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.08	65.22	60.58	0.04	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.08	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.08	56.00	55.65	0.02	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.04	0.08	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.08	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.08	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.08	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.08	66.67	69.69	0.00	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.04	0.08	32.00	35.39	-0.01	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.08	91.30	87.18	0.07	0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.10	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.03	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.10	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.08	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.10	0.06	30.00	33.20	-0.04	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.00	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.03	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.03	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.00	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.03	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.06	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.09	0.06	21.05	22.46	-0.05	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.04	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.03	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.09	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.03	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.04	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.04	0.06	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.00	0.06	71.43	73.35	0.00	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.04	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.04	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.05	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.05	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.05	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.09	0.05	27.27	23.80	-0.04	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.04	0.05	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.04	0.05	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.04	0.05	33.33	41.31	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.04	0.05	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.04	0.05	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.05	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.05	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.05
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.00	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.00	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.00	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.04	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.04	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.04	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.04	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.00	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.04	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.03	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.01	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.00	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.04	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.04	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00