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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:70.0
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:91
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:38



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1270.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH78-84L0%0.0
11-17Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH70-60W100%0.0
11-21North Carolina (5.0)ACCH71-67W100%0.0
11-28North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA51-97W100%0.0
11-30North Texas (295.0)CUSAH93-70W100%0.0
12-5Richmond (121.0)A10A82-67L0%0.0
12-8George Mason (201.0)A10A65-73W100%0.0
12-12New Mexico (141.0)MWCA76-57L0%0.0
12-19Iowa St. (23.0)B12N79-81W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (80.0)BWA68-52L0%0.0
12-23Washington St. (212.0)P12N63-59W100%0.0
12-25BYU (76.0)WCCN76-84L0%0.0
12-30Bradley (306.0)MVCH80-44W100%0.0
1-2Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA75-73L0%0.0
1-6Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA59-58L0%0.0
1-9Drake (325.0)MVCH77-44W100%0.0
1-13Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA74-60L0%0.0
1-16Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH41-51L0%0.0
1-20Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH55-74L0%0.0
1-23Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA76-67L0%0.0
1-27Bradley (306.0)MVCA50-68W100%0.0
1-31Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH67-58W100%0.0
2-3Evansville (93.0)MVCH57-54W100%0.0
2-6Drake (325.0)MVCA66-82W100%0.0
2-10Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH83-69W100%0.0
2-13Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA50-53W100%0.0
2-17Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA59-56L0%0.0
2-20Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH75-66W100%0.0
2-24Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH66-44W100%0.0
2-27Evansville (93.0)MVCA52-54W100%0.0
3-4Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCN66-60W100%0.0
3-5Wichita St. (47.0)MVCN52-57W100%0.0
3-6Evansville (93.0)MVCN54-56W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC26.5226.5265.9965.998.488.48
EvansvilleMVC5.525.5280.0080.003.313.31
Southern IllinoisMVC5.475.4772.4172.412.452.45
Wichita St.MVC5.465.4678.5778.573.123.12
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.094.0941.3841.38-0.71-0.71
Missouri St.MVC4.074.0737.9337.93-0.98-0.98
Indiana St.MVC4.074.0744.8344.83-0.42-0.42
BradleyMVC4.024.0213.7913.79-2.91-2.91
Illinois St.MVC4.004.0055.1755.170.410.41
DrakeMVC3.993.9921.4321.43-2.28-2.28
North TexasCUSA1.661.6634.4834.48-0.51-0.51
New MexicoMWC1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
North DakotaBSky1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA101.561.5635.4835.48-0.45-0.45
RichmondA101.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC1.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
Colorado St.MWC1.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P121.541.5427.5927.59-0.69-0.69
HawaiiBW1.521.5282.7682.760.990.99
Iowa St.B121.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
North CarolinaACC1.521.5284.8584.851.061.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.521.5285.1985.191.071.07
Saint LouisA100.290.2934.3834.38-0.09-0.09
NevadaMWC0.270.2756.6756.670.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1911.1111.11-0.15-0.15
TulsaAmer0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
UNLVMWC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Weber St.BSky0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
IowaB100.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
USCP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
UtahP120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
ColoradoP120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
TCUB120.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1422.8622.86-0.08-0.08
PortlandWCC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
OklahomaB120.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
DavidsonA100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
TulaneAmer0.100.1035.2935.29-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
VCUA100.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
SyracuseACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00