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Through games of Jan 30, 2015.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:21.7
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:107
Current SOS:132
Current Record:19-2
Expected Record:26-4
Current Conf Record:8-1
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-211.52.92%
27-314.416.26%
26-418.532.71%
25-523.829.21%
24-630.214.48%
23-737.43.89%
22-845.60.49%
21-956.50.02%
20-1070.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15North Dakota (280.0)BSkyH64-52W100%0.0
11-18Stephen F. Austin (50.7)SlndA77-79W100%0.0
11-20Morgan St. (325.3)MEACH73-53W100%0.0
11-22North Florida (166.7)ASunH66-49W100%0.0
11-25Virginia Tech (205.7)ACCN54-73W100%0.0
11-26Northwestern (153.5)B10N42-61W100%0.0
11-30Richmond (71.8)A10H55-50W100%0.0
12-6George Mason (176.0)A10H71-65W100%0.0
12-10Denver (213.0)SumA55-65W100%0.0
12-13VCU (8.5)A10A93-87L0%0.0
12-20Iowa (51.9)B10N44-56W100%0.0
12-28South Dakota St. (92.2)SumH74-63W100%0.0
1-1Evansville (78.4)MVCA52-49L0%0.0
1-4Loyola Chicago (125.6)MVCH67-58W100%0.0
1-7Southern Illinois (265.9)MVCH55-39W100%0.0
1-10Drake (263.7)MVCA40-64W100%0.0
1-13Bradley (279.2)MVCA52-63W100%0.0
1-18Missouri St. (219.7)MVCH60-46W100%0.0
1-21Indiana St. (189.9)MVCH66-60W100%0.0
1-25Illinois St. (84.8)MVCA53-54W100%0.0
1-28Southern Illinois (265.9)MVCA52-59W100%0.0
1-31Wichita St. (13.5)MVCH0-047%-0.8
2-3Indiana St. (189.9)MVCA0-080%9.2
2-7Drake (263.7)MVCH0-098%23.3
2-11Illinois St. (84.8)MVCH0-075%7.4
2-15Missouri St. (219.7)MVCA0-082%10.0
2-18Loyola Chicago (125.6)MVCA0-067%5.0
2-21Bradley (279.2)MVCH0-096%19.6
2-25Evansville (78.4)MVCH0-082%9.9
2-28Wichita St. (13.5)MVCA0-024%-7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC26.3826.3793.5586.9622.9819.49
DrakeMVC2.814.2821.0522.79-1.63-2.33
Illinois St.MVC2.864.2863.1663.730.751.18
BradleyMVC2.914.2630.0029.63-1.16-1.73
Southern IllinoisMVC5.124.2642.1139.46-0.81-0.90
EvansvilleMVC2.864.2573.6870.581.351.75
Wichita St.MVC0.604.2590.0089.820.483.39
Indiana St.MVC2.924.2547.3746.45-0.15-0.30
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.794.2561.1161.630.620.99
Missouri St.MVC2.854.2533.3336.23-0.95-1.17
VCUA102.441.8484.2181.511.671.16
RichmondA102.451.7857.8958.790.390.31
George MasonA102.441.7735.2933.87-0.72-0.57
North DakotaBSky2.501.7525.0031.76-1.25-0.64
South Dakota St.Sum2.511.7570.0071.401.000.75
IowaB102.441.7568.4265.530.900.54
NorthwesternB102.441.7552.6344.870.13-0.18
DenverSum2.441.7345.0047.97-0.24-0.07
North FloridaASun2.501.7257.8962.740.390.44
Virginia TechACC2.441.6947.3738.64-0.13-0.39
Morgan St.MEAC2.441.6921.0528.19-1.41-0.74
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.381.6787.5088.031.791.27
Saint LouisA100.410.3942.1136.40-0.07-0.11
IUPUISum0.350.3236.3638.71-0.10-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.240.2447.3749.63-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.290.2380.0081.590.180.14
George WashingtonA100.190.2276.1969.570.100.09
MemphisAmer0.190.2065.0061.650.060.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.290.2015.0017.47-0.20-0.13
IPFWSum0.170.1738.8941.66-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.240.1763.1661.850.060.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1752.9447.000.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.300.1726.3226.56-0.14-0.08
DavidsonA100.240.1676.4777.080.130.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1536.8439.63-0.04-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1410.5319.78-0.09-0.09
Michigan St.B100.180.1466.6764.920.060.04
Old DominionCUSA0.240.1480.0079.860.150.08
IllinoisB100.120.1461.9060.280.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.1223.5328.20-0.03-0.05
Texas TechB120.130.1252.3840.080.01-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1225.0037.82-0.06-0.03
South DakotaSum0.110.1242.8644.91-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.060.1278.9573.600.040.06
UtahP120.130.1278.9580.140.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1255.0053.780.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1235.2930.49-0.03-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1236.8438.01-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.180.1270.0063.500.070.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1236.8437.34-0.05-0.03
DePaulBE0.120.1150.0042.550.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.120.1178.9577.960.070.06
Seton HallBE0.060.1170.0063.270.020.03
New OrleansSlnd0.240.1123.0835.90-0.13-0.03
BelmontOVC0.180.1165.0063.630.050.03
Miami OHMAC0.180.1131.5830.78-0.07-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1142.1139.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.230.1110.0013.32-0.18-0.08
MinnesotaB100.130.1157.1454.290.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.130.1161.1156.080.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1154.5556.920.020.02
Penn St.B100.120.1166.6754.170.040.01
WisconsinB100.120.1190.0087.310.100.08
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.0935.2932.56-0.04-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.0963.1667.490.030.03
IdahoBSky0.180.0937.5043.27-0.05-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.120.0985.0081.560.080.06
Idaho St.BSky0.110.0915.7922.84-0.08-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.060.0963.1658.740.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.0964.2967.400.040.03
Utah St.MWC0.120.0957.8955.970.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.130.0938.8943.58-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.120.0930.0036.10-0.05-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0938.4633.52-0.01-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.0936.8440.44-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.130.0945.0046.68-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.130.0971.4374.940.050.04
ElonCAA0.180.0845.0042.61-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.180.0811.1116.23-0.14-0.06
Iowa St.B120.120.0878.9569.330.070.03
Western MichiganMAC0.120.0861.1156.540.030.01
BrownIvy0.120.0838.8936.84-0.03-0.02
ButlerBE0.120.0871.4370.720.050.03
Florida St.ACC0.120.0852.3845.710.01-0.01
PurdueB100.120.0861.9058.640.030.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0815.0023.63-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.120.0855.5658.560.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0880.0077.320.040.05
DuquesneA100.120.0827.7826.35-0.05-0.04
FordhamA100.060.0823.5324.42-0.03-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0855.0053.260.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0855.0055.190.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0872.2268.790.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.120.0873.3372.370.050.04
HamptonMEAC0.120.0840.0038.69-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.060.0860.0052.340.010.00
NebraskaB100.060.0860.0049.450.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.180.0877.2777.580.100.04
SyracuseACC0.120.0866.6758.800.040.01
VirginiaACC0.120.08100.0094.030.120.07
Boise St.MWC0.060.0668.4269.400.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2557.010.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0658.3365.180.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0620.0020.72-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0623.8125.53-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0637.5037.53-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0638.8941.90-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0652.9455.900.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0615.7919.24-0.05-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0642.1147.36-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0647.0652.46-0.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0640.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0647.0644.94-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0666.6762.680.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0670.5975.650.030.03
StetsonASun0.060.0616.6722.55-0.04-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.0640.0042.36-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0660.0052.490.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0663.1663.400.000.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0647.0645.69-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0645.0036.07-0.01-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.0621.0530.43-0.07-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.0623.8126.39-0.07-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.060.004.66-0.12-0.05
MarquetteBE0.130.0650.0044.440.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0676.4771.300.030.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0642.8642.93-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0642.1137.96-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0665.0059.030.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0623.8125.01-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0061.990.000.01
OhioMAC0.060.0638.8935.48-0.01-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0049.060.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0638.1041.77-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.1160.460.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0645.0049.91-0.01-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0079.220.040.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0633.3333.64-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0635.2935.77-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.130.0650.0047.950.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.0680.0074.260.070.03
West VirginiaB120.130.0685.0075.810.090.03
Chicago St.WAC0.110.065.2610.51-0.10-0.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0657.1446.790.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0657.1462.480.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0652.3856.200.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0638.8938.68-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.060.0670.0059.730.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0657.8957.960.010.01
YaleIvy0.110.0666.6766.370.040.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0541.1844.43-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0550.0046.860.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0571.4366.610.000.02
MarylandB100.060.0581.8276.480.040.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0570.0066.140.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.0580.9576.580.070.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0559.0956.200.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.120.0560.0057.750.020.01
RadfordBSth0.120.0563.1663.970.030.02
RutgersB100.060.0545.4536.52-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0542.8638.97-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0373.6869.390.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0370.0068.410.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0326.3236.42-0.03-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.030.003.40-0.07-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0370.5973.360.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0345.0052.61-0.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0321.4339.76-0.04-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0314.2917.20-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0335.2933.06-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0533.18-0.04-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0350.0051.270.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0322.2240.62-0.04-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0327.7828.15-0.03-0.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0343.7546.22-0.01-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0366.6765.800.020.01
BryantNEC0.060.0347.3747.85-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0327.2731.53-0.03-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0350.0049.150.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0365.0063.080.020.01
OklahomaB120.070.0365.0066.320.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0341.1841.54-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.060.0375.0071.470.030.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0378.9573.790.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0344.4449.91-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0340.0037.05-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0372.2277.840.000.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0363.6464.900.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0316.6725.21-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0328.5732.24-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0342.8639.21-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0338.8936.60-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0325.0031.44-0.03-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0316.6721.98-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0342.1138.99-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0347.3742.60-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0375.0073.790.030.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0052.350.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0350.0053.390.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0385.0081.780.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0355.5656.530.010.00
High PointBSth0.060.0373.6870.420.030.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0359.0958.320.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0320.0024.54-0.04-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0385.0078.450.040.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0310.0015.21-0.05-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0363.6464.410.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0341.1838.29-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0390.9185.820.050.02
OregonP120.060.0366.6761.400.020.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0360.0052.020.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0316.6717.58-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0326.3229.17-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0363.1654.160.020.00
TexasB120.060.0370.0067.330.020.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0329.4131.71-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0360.0058.610.010.00
UMBCAE0.060.0314.2917.01-0.04-0.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0390.0084.610.050.02
VMISC0.060.0330.0034.93-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0361.1164.980.010.01