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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:14.0
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:115
Current Record:30-3
Expected Record:30-3
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-314.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH64-52W100%0.0
11-18Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA77-79W100%0.0
11-20Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH73-53W100%0.0
11-22North Florida (162.0)ASunH66-49W100%0.0
11-25Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCN54-73W100%0.0
11-26Northwestern (125.0)B10N42-61W100%0.0
11-30Richmond (56.0)A10H55-50W100%0.0
12-6George Mason (221.0)A10H71-65W100%0.0
12-10Denver (232.0)SumA55-65W100%0.0
12-13VCU (15.0)A10A93-87L0%0.0
12-20Iowa (43.0)B10N44-56W100%0.0
12-28South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH74-63W100%0.0
1-1Evansville (118.0)MVCA52-49L0%0.0
1-4Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH67-58W100%0.0
1-7Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH55-39W100%0.0
1-10Drake (269.0)MVCA40-64W100%0.0
1-13Bradley (288.0)MVCA52-63W100%0.0
1-18Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH60-46W100%0.0
1-21Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH66-60W100%0.0
1-25Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA53-54W100%0.0
1-28Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA52-59W100%0.0
1-31Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH70-54W100%0.0
2-3Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA51-61W100%0.0
2-7Drake (269.0)MVCH69-53W100%0.0
2-11Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH83-64W100%0.0
2-15Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA57-68W100%0.0
2-18Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA39-58W100%0.0
2-21Bradley (288.0)MVCH56-39W100%0.0
2-25Evansville (118.0)MVCH68-57W100%0.0
2-28Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA74-60L0%0.0
3-6Bradley (288.0)MVCN71-46W100%0.0
3-7Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCN63-49W100%0.0
3-8Illinois St. (62.0)MVCN69-60W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC26.5526.5593.8893.8823.2923.29
Illinois St.MVC5.565.5668.9768.972.112.11
BradleyMVC5.495.4927.5927.59-2.46-2.46
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.485.4862.9662.961.421.42
Wichita St.MVC4.094.0989.6689.663.243.24
Southern IllinoisMVC4.074.0736.6736.67-1.09-1.09
DrakeMVC4.064.0628.5728.57-1.74-1.74
Indiana St.MVC4.044.0450.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC4.044.0460.7160.710.860.86
Missouri St.MVC4.014.0133.3333.33-1.34-1.34
VCUA101.711.7173.5373.530.800.80
RichmondA101.631.6361.2961.290.370.37
George MasonA101.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
South Dakota St.Sum1.591.5970.0070.000.640.64
North DakotaBSky1.591.5922.2222.22-0.88-0.88
IowaB101.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
NorthwesternB101.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
DenverSum1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
North FloridaASun1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
Virginia TechACC1.541.5434.3834.38-0.48-0.48
Morgan St.MEAC1.541.5423.3323.33-0.82-0.82
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.521.5289.6689.661.201.20
Saint LouisA100.360.3632.2632.26-0.13-0.13
IUPUISum0.270.2732.2632.26-0.10-0.10
Murray St.OVC0.220.2283.3383.330.150.15
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.200.2070.0070.000.080.08
MemphisAmer0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
George WashingtonA100.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
IPFWSum0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.160.1676.6776.670.090.09
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
DePaulBE0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
FordhamA100.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
UtahP120.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.08-0.08
WisconsinB100.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
St. BonaventureA100.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
LipscombASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.050.05
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0218.7518.75-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02