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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:109.0
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:97
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15109.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Ohio (87.0)MACA75-64L0%0.0
11-16George Mason (164.0)A10A76-70L0%0.0
11-22Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCN81-90W100%0.0
11-24Maryland (78.0)ACCN80-66L0%0.0
11-25La Salle (98.0)A10N50-65W100%0.0
12-3Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA83-72L0%0.0
12-7Iowa St. (7.0)B12N91-82L0%0.0
12-10Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH55-50W100%0.0
12-14VCU (13.0)A10H77-68W100%0.0
12-21Virginia (8.0)ACCA57-43L0%0.0
12-28Iona (59.0)MAACH90-78W100%0.0
1-1Bradley (265.0)MVCH80-46W100%0.0
1-5Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA67-53L0%0.0
1-8Evansville (214.0)MVCA53-80W100%0.0
1-11Drake (174.0)MVCH76-66W100%0.0
1-14Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA68-66L0%0.0
1-18Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH94-89W100%0.0
1-22Bradley (265.0)MVCA69-65L0%0.0
1-25Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA93-87L0%0.0
1-29Evansville (214.0)MVCH95-81W100%0.0
2-1Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH81-87L0%0.0
2-5Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA76-65L0%0.0
2-8Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH73-82L0%0.0
2-12Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH80-58W100%0.0
2-15Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA58-60W100%0.0
2-18Drake (174.0)MVCA70-67L0%0.0
2-23Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH72-59W100%0.0
2-26Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH73-54W100%0.0
3-1Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA69-71W100%0.0
3-7Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCN58-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC26.3826.3850.8350.830.440.44
Southern IllinoisMVC5.915.9137.9337.93-1.43-1.43
Indiana St.MVC4.424.4268.9768.971.681.68
Wichita St.MVC4.414.41100.00100.004.414.41
EvansvilleMVC4.374.3741.3841.38-0.75-0.75
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.374.3727.5927.59-1.96-1.96
Missouri St.MVC4.374.3765.5265.521.361.36
BradleyMVC4.324.3236.6736.67-1.15-1.15
Illinois St.MVC4.314.3150.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC4.294.2946.4346.43-0.31-0.31
VCUA101.801.8078.7978.791.041.04
VirginiaACC1.801.8081.8281.821.141.14
MilwaukeeHorz1.771.7759.3859.380.330.33
George MasonA101.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
OhioMAC1.721.7265.6265.620.540.54
La SalleA101.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
MarylandACC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC1.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
Iowa St.B121.691.6978.1278.120.950.95
Loyola MarymountWCC1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Savannah St.MEAC1.671.6737.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Saint LouisA100.310.3180.6580.650.190.19
St. BonaventureA100.240.2453.1253.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.220.2210.3410.34-0.17-0.17
George WashingtonA100.210.2175.0075.000.100.10
Miami OHMAC0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
FordhamA100.180.1832.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
DaytonA100.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
UICHorz0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
PittsburghACC0.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
BYUWCC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
RichmondA100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1383.8783.870.090.09
PortlandWCC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
DuquesneA100.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
Notre DameACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.8114.81-0.08-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
MaristMAAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00