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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Northern Iowa

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:115.0
Current RPI:123
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:120
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:29



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1179.81.43%
18-1292.213.87%
17-13106.637.24%
16-14122.932.74%
15-15140.612.45%
14-16156.52.10%
13-17168.80.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Colorado St. (181.1)MWCH78-84L0%0.0
11-17Stephen F. Austin (95.6)SlndH70-60W100%0.0
11-21North Carolina (10.7)ACCH71-67W100%0.0
11-28North Dakota (209.5)BSkyA51-97W100%0.0
11-30North Texas (300.6)CUSAH93-70W100%0.0
12-5Richmond (108.9)A10A82-67L0%0.0
12-8George Mason (183.5)A10A65-73W100%0.0
12-12New Mexico (95.8)MWCA76-57L0%0.0
12-19Iowa St. (17.2)B12N79-81W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (91.8)BWA68-52L0%0.0
12-23Washington St. (184.1)P12N63-59W100%0.0
12-25BYU (72.5)WCCN76-84L0%0.0
12-30Bradley (305.2)MVCH80-44W100%0.0
1-2Southern Illinois (139.7)MVCA75-73L0%0.0
1-6Missouri St. (235.9)MVCA59-58L0%0.0
1-9Drake (305.1)MVCH77-44W100%0.0
1-13Indiana St. (147.2)MVCA74-60L0%0.0
1-16Loyola Chicago (239.1)MVCH41-51L0%0.0
1-20Wichita St. (37.8)MVCH55-74L0%0.0
1-23Illinois St. (129.6)MVCA76-67L0%0.0
1-27Bradley (305.2)MVCA50-68W100%0.0
1-31Southern Illinois (139.7)MVCH67-58W100%0.0
2-3Evansville (74.4)MVCH57-54W100%0.0
2-6Drake (305.1)MVCA66-82W100%0.0
2-10Missouri St. (235.9)MVCH0-089%13.3
2-13Wichita St. (37.8)MVCA0-014%-11.6
2-17Loyola Chicago (239.1)MVCA0-067%4.9
2-20Illinois St. (129.6)MVCH0-078%8.4
2-24Indiana St. (147.2)MVCH0-074%7.1
2-27Evansville (74.4)MVCA0-030%-5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IowaMVC26.3826.3655.6656.602.993.48
Southern IllinoisMVC4.814.3073.9171.922.301.89
BradleyMVC4.764.2713.6413.77-3.46-3.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.794.2640.9140.87-0.51-0.78
EvansvilleMVC2.714.2478.2679.171.532.48
Illinois St.MVC2.754.2452.1750.220.120.02
DrakeMVC4.704.2423.8125.42-2.46-2.08
Indiana St.MVC2.754.2450.0051.130.000.10
Missouri St.MVC2.744.2436.3636.41-0.75-1.15
Wichita St.MVC2.784.2371.4375.081.192.12
New MexicoMWC2.221.8159.0961.750.400.43
North TexasCUSA2.251.7735.0034.17-0.67-0.56
George MasonA102.131.7236.3635.35-0.58-0.50
North DakotaBSky2.171.7250.0051.970.000.07
RichmondA102.131.7252.3852.980.100.10
BYUWCC2.131.6965.2268.450.650.62
Colorado St.MWC2.081.6950.0048.650.00-0.05
Washington St.P122.131.6938.1033.15-0.51-0.57
HawaiiBW2.081.6783.3380.971.391.03
Iowa St.B122.081.6777.2772.401.140.75
North CarolinaACC2.081.6786.3681.311.521.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.081.6775.0078.571.040.95
NevadaMWC0.290.2655.0054.530.030.02
Saint LouisA100.220.2538.1033.40-0.05-0.08
Utah St.MWC0.180.2045.0046.77-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.140.1763.6459.960.040.03
UNLVMWC0.190.1750.0055.190.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.175.007.24-0.16-0.15
Boise St.MWC0.180.1763.6462.520.050.04
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1772.7372.030.090.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1713.6415.80-0.13-0.11
Air ForceMWC0.180.1645.4538.48-0.02-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.170.1645.4549.71-0.02-0.00
TCUB120.180.1643.4837.22-0.02-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.240.1565.0069.270.070.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.190.1545.0049.37-0.02-0.00
UtahP120.140.1472.7368.540.060.05
IowaB100.180.1481.8280.120.120.09
USCP120.190.1478.2673.060.110.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1445.4546.29-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.190.1416.6720.14-0.13-0.09
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1439.1341.12-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.140.1443.4842.51-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.200.1460.8758.450.040.02
ColoradoP120.190.1469.5765.300.070.04
UTEPCUSA0.230.1452.1751.930.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1447.8344.37-0.01-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.1461.9059.650.020.03
PortlandWCC0.180.1440.0038.50-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.140.1460.0057.950.030.02
IdahoBSky0.150.1254.5554.930.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1252.6350.230.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1214.2917.91-0.11-0.08
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.200.1231.5831.81-0.07-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1245.4551.34-0.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.040.1272.7371.610.020.05
TulaneAmer0.200.1233.3332.33-0.07-0.04
UABCUSA0.150.1282.6179.430.100.07
Seton HallBE0.130.1273.9169.840.060.05
ButlerBE0.090.1169.5767.220.040.04
IUPUISum0.090.1140.0039.79-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.1159.0960.070.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1181.8283.030.060.08
OklahomaB120.190.1186.3682.100.140.07
ArizonaP120.180.1179.1778.310.110.06
Ball St.MAC0.130.1163.6459.230.040.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.1140.9149.26-0.02-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.180.1156.5257.280.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.1131.8229.14-0.02-0.05
Texas TechB120.150.1159.0953.130.030.01
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1125.0022.77-0.07-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.1130.4331.18-0.03-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1182.6178.860.090.06
George WashingtonA100.090.1178.2674.360.050.05
VCUA100.090.1173.9173.910.040.05
VirginiaACC0.130.1182.6178.050.090.06
Montana St.BSky0.110.0940.9143.72-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.160.0945.0046.14-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0928.5726.96-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.160.0954.1751.650.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0952.3847.050.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0945.4554.10-0.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.150.0927.7834.49-0.07-0.03
CreightonBE0.090.0962.5059.780.020.02
UTSACUSA0.090.0913.6413.63-0.07-0.06
BaylorB120.110.0972.7366.500.050.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0956.5262.780.010.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0869.5765.850.040.03
RiceCUSA0.140.0828.5729.71-0.06-0.03
UCLAP120.140.0856.5253.250.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0878.2676.870.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.0839.1338.57-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0866.6770.540.050.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0866.6766.540.030.03
OaklandHorz0.130.0868.0067.970.050.03
FordhamA100.090.0855.0052.290.010.00
MarylandB100.090.0887.5083.690.070.06
MississippiSEC0.130.0865.2259.020.040.01
TowsonCAA0.130.0865.2259.750.040.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0882.6179.550.060.05
TexasB120.090.0869.5762.640.040.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.010.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0656.2556.100.000.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0631.5831.96-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.290.010.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0618.7526.45-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0675.0071.510.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.110.0630.0034.56-0.04-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0635.0032.28-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5728.55-0.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0645.8341.66-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0642.8650.39-0.020.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0640.0036.78-0.01-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0610.0013.12-0.08-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.050.0631.5837.72-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0659.0953.030.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.02-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0626.0929.20-0.05-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0663.6462.150.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0620.8323.63-0.06-0.03
AuburnSEC0.100.0640.9136.61-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0634.7840.92-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.090.0634.7834.45-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0640.9143.55-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0668.1865.290.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.720.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0626.0927.82-0.02-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0640.9140.64-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0628.5732.71-0.04-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0665.2266.160.010.02
WashingtonP120.050.0665.2261.080.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0665.2262.900.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0638.8945.64-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0630.0035.78-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0652.1755.930.000.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0621.7423.31-0.05-0.03
KentuckySEC0.040.0673.9171.570.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0650.0052.340.000.00
PacificWCC0.090.0625.0028.89-0.04-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.040.0675.0070.940.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0685.7185.390.060.04
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0654.5550.110.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0677.2776.850.020.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0666.6762.630.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0586.3682.350.030.04
DuquesneA100.050.0563.6456.370.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0569.5768.500.040.02
La SalleA100.050.0520.0020.47-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.090.0522.7324.97-0.05-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0540.9139.32-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0556.5256.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0570.0069.100.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0543.4840.60-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0530.4326.49-0.02-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0573.9170.060.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0521.0523.59-0.05-0.03
KansasB120.050.0581.8277.570.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0563.6459.380.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0565.2268.610.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0550.0049.100.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0517.3920.65-0.05-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.570.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0554.1749.290.01-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0321.0527.81-0.04-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.06-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0317.6529.25-0.04-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.1145.73-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0315.0027.27-0.04-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.36-0.04-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0333.3335.50-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.860.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.080.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0338.1040.73-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.9145.30-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.18-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
OregonP120.000.0381.8278.150.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0361.9056.430.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0339.1341.32-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0338.8938.51-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.69-0.03-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0350.0051.170.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0365.2266.080.010.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0335.0038.53-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.69-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0333.3334.94-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.900.010.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.3685.030.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.04-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0370.8370.930.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.210.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0345.4546.10-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.35-0.03-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0352.1753.070.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.880.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.810.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0347.8344.55-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.730.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0345.0043.21-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0372.7370.750.020.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0380.9575.490.000.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.430.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0376.1968.220.000.01
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.550.030.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.810.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.040.030.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0328.5731.90-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.020.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0340.9145.38-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00