Northern Iowa

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	83.0
Current RPI:	83
Expected SOS:	46
Current SOS:	46
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	91
Expected OOC SOS:	10

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	83.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	84-81	W	100%
11-17	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	72-47	W	100%
11-22	Louisville (3.0)	BE	N	46-51	L	0%
11-23	Stanford (77.0)	P12	N	50-66	L	0%
11-24	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	N	47-52	L	0%
12-1	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	72-61	W	100%
12-5	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	76-59	W	100%
12-8	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	77-82	W	100%
12-15	Iowa (79.0)	B10	N	73-80	L	0%
12-19	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	73-59	L	0%
12-23	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	82-75	W	100%
12-30	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	66-41	L	0%
1-2	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	H	61-65	L	0%
1-5	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	60-70	W	100%
1-9	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	H	59-62	L	0%
1-12	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	H	84-53	W	100%
1-15	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	79-68	L	0%
1-20	Drake (143.0)	MVC	H	85-55	W	100%
1-23	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	H	58-45	W	100%
1-26	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	A	59-58	L	0%
1-29	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	54-51	L	0%
2-2	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	H	57-52	W	100%
2-5	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	H	48-37	W	100%
2-10	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	A	65-68	W	100%
2-13	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	H	61-54	W	100%
2-16	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	64-71	W	100%
2-19	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	A	63-69	W	100%
2-23	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	57-63	L	0%
2-27	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	A	63-57	L	0%
3-2	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	H	80-72	W	100%
3-8	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	N	65-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Iowa	MVC	26.34	26.34	52.59	52.59	1.37	1.37
Illinois St.	MVC	5.72	5.72	56.67	56.67	0.76	0.76
Wichita St.	MVC	4.32	4.32	78.12	78.12	2.43	2.43
Creighton	MVC	4.27	4.27	81.25	81.25	2.67	2.67
Drake	MVC	4.21	4.21	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Missouri St.	MVC	4.18	4.18	31.03	31.03	-1.59	-1.59
Indiana St.	MVC	4.18	4.18	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Bradley	MVC	4.14	4.14	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
Evansville	MVC	4.13	4.13	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.13	4.13	42.86	42.86	-0.59	-0.59
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.71	1.71	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
St. Mary's	WCC	1.71	1.71	83.87	83.87	1.16	1.16
Louisville	BE	1.71	1.71	84.85	84.85	1.19	1.19
North Dakota	BSky	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	1.66	1.66	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
Stanford	P12	1.64	1.64	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Denver	WAC	1.64	1.64	68.97	68.97	0.62	0.62
Memphis	CUSA	1.64	1.64	87.88	87.88	1.24	1.24
George Mason	CAA	1.61	1.61	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.61	1.61	71.88	71.88	0.71	0.71
Toledo	MAC	1.61	1.61	55.56	55.56	0.18	0.18
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.61	1.61	20.69	20.69	-0.95	-0.95
Utah St.	WAC	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
California	P12	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Tulsa	CUSA	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.14	79.31	79.31	0.08	0.08
Montana St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.13	0.13	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00