Long Island

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	106.7
Current RPI:	113
Expected SOS:	271
Current SOS:	288
Current Record:	17-7
Expected Record:	21-9
Current Conf Record:	11-1
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	14.04%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-2
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	166
Expected OOC SOS:	268

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-7	85.3	12.75%
22-8	97.7	33.83%
21-9	110.6	32.83%
20-10	124.3	15.80%
19-11	139.9	4.30%
18-12	157.1	0.44%
17-13	175.5	0.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Hofstra (237.3)	CAA	A	89-71	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Old Dominion (124.4)	CAA	A	77-69	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Penn St. (162.3)	B10	A	77-68	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Radford (335.3)	BSth	N	59-81	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Vermont (168.3)	AE	N	80-75	W	100%	0.0
11-28	Iona (45.3)	MAAC	A	100-84	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Wagner (83.3)	NEC	H	78-73	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Mount St. Mary's (289.3)	NEC	A	76-85	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Lafayette (209.9)	Pat	A	80-82	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Columbia (150.6)	Ivy	A	63-53	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Norfolk St. (130.0)	MEAC	A	73-62	L	0%	0.0
12-17	St. Peter's (281.1)	MAAC	H	82-80	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	H	100-84	W	100%	0.0
12-30	NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)	GWC	H	84-74	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Sacred Heart (241.2)	NEC	A	81-87	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Quinnipiac (174.4)	NEC	A	75-79	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.6)	NEC	H	82-64	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Monmouth (274.7)	NEC	H	106-86	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Mount St. Mary's (289.3)	NEC	H	77-62	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Wagner (83.3)	NEC	A	66-73	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	A	75-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	St. Francis PA (303.2)	NEC	A	76-97	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Bryant (334.5)	NEC	H	75-70	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Central Connecticut (234.8)	NEC	H	95-81	W	100%	0.0
2-8	St. Francis NY (188.0)	NEC	A	0-0		50%	0.0
2-11	St. Francis NY (188.0)	NEC	H	0-0		73%	6.6
2-16	Sacred Heart (241.2)	NEC	H	0-0		79%	8.7
2-18	Quinnipiac (174.4)	NEC	H	0-0		66%	4.4
2-23	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.6)	NEC	A	0-0		84%	11.1
2-25	Monmouth (274.7)	NEC	A	0-0		80%	9.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Long Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Long Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Long Island	NEC	26.27	26.25	79.00	77.40	15.24	14.38
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.90	4.24	56.52	57.26	0.12	0.62
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.85	4.21	9.09	12.46	-2.34	-3.16
Wagner	NEC	4.61	4.12	90.48	90.85	3.73	3.37
Monmouth	NEC	2.66	4.10	29.17	30.18	-1.11	-1.63
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.56	4.09	28.57	30.73	-1.96	-1.58
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.67	4.04	45.83	48.31	-0.22	-0.14
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.65	4.04	59.09	60.10	0.48	0.82
Robert Morris	NEC	2.66	2.48	66.67	69.06	0.89	0.95
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.66	2.48	22.73	23.56	-1.45	-1.31
Bryant	NEC	2.62	2.46	8.70	11.21	-2.17	-1.91
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.61	2.45	47.62	47.38	-0.12	-0.13
Lafayette	Pat	2.50	2.07	45.45	44.51	-0.23	-0.23
Hofstra	CAA	2.26	1.84	29.17	33.24	-0.94	-0.62
Vermont	AE	2.26	1.84	64.00	65.97	0.63	0.59
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.17	1.81	35.29	39.99	-0.64	-0.36
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.21	1.81	21.74	24.55	-1.25	-0.92
Penn St.	B10	2.26	1.78	39.13	36.59	-0.49	-0.48
Iona	MAAC	2.21	1.78	78.26	79.45	1.25	1.05
Columbia	Ivy	2.17	1.75	52.63	53.14	0.11	0.11
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.08	1.72	68.18	69.37	0.76	0.67
Old Dominion	CAA	2.17	1.72	58.33	56.91	0.36	0.24
Radford	BSth	2.13	1.69	9.09	13.59	-1.74	-1.23
Texas St.	Slnd	2.08	1.67	23.53	28.67	-1.10	-0.71
Lehigh	Pat	0.36	0.31	73.91	74.94	0.17	0.16
Hartford	AE	0.35	0.31	20.83	22.81	-0.20	-0.17
Colgate	Pat	0.29	0.29	30.43	29.49	-0.11	-0.12
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.28	27.27	23.78	-0.08	-0.15
Albany	AE	0.22	0.28	57.69	58.54	0.03	0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.22	0.26	72.22	63.23	0.10	0.07
Navy	Pat	0.31	0.25	9.52	13.17	-0.25	-0.19
Niagara	MAAC	0.27	0.25	36.00	40.36	-0.08	-0.05
American	Pat	0.28	0.23	65.22	63.79	0.08	0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.30	0.22	43.48	45.03	-0.04	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.19	0.21	40.91	41.68	-0.04	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.28	0.20	68.00	69.08	0.10	0.08
Marist	MAAC	0.22	0.20	34.78	33.44	-0.07	-0.07
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.20	56.52	54.88	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.18	0.19	68.18	68.98	0.07	0.07
Rider	MAAC	0.21	0.19	40.00	39.70	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.21	0.19	76.00	72.48	0.11	0.09
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.23	0.17	54.55	56.80	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.22	0.17	78.26	74.29	0.12	0.08
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.15	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.19	0.15	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.14	0.14	40.91	42.03	-0.03	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.14	0.14	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.13	0.14	90.48	87.91	0.11	0.11
Boston University	AE	0.17	0.14	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.17	0.14	47.83	50.66	-0.01	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.14	79.17	78.05	0.08	0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.14	34.78	37.18	-0.04	-0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.13	0.14	0.00	4.04	-0.13	-0.13
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.17	0.14	80.00	78.08	0.10	0.08
James Madison	CAA	0.21	0.13	40.00	40.17	-0.04	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.21	0.13	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.12	73.91	68.65	0.07	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.12	65.22	63.65	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.11	38.89	41.49	-0.03	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.18	0.11	80.00	76.67	0.11	0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.14	0.11	14.29	17.12	-0.10	-0.08
Maryland	ACC	0.18	0.11	60.87	53.44	0.04	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.18	0.11	62.50	59.52	0.04	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.11	21.74	25.63	-0.05	-0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.18	0.11	70.83	62.75	0.07	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.11	17.39	19.76	-0.11	-0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.11	30.43	26.42	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.11	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.11	12.50	13.42	-0.06	-0.08
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.11	39.13	36.12	-0.02	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.12	0.11	33.33	37.75	-0.04	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.17	0.11	4.00	5.27	-0.15	-0.10
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.10	25.00	28.48	-0.06	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.10	19.05	24.60	-0.07	-0.05
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.10	0.09	76.19	75.98	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.09	65.22	62.35	0.04	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.09	36.84	41.47	-0.04	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.09	73.91	75.03	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.14	0.09	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.09	40.91	34.45	-0.02	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.09	70.83	68.83	0.06	0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.13	0.08	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.09	0.08	13.04	14.47	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.08	63.64	57.79	0.02	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.08	96.00	93.53	0.12	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.08	69.57	65.88	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.13	0.08	52.38	53.29	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	62.67	0.03	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.08	62.50	60.78	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.13	0.08	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.07	47.83	47.88	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.07	9.09	12.82	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.07	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.12	0.06	47.62	44.58	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	26.32	29.85	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.12	0.06	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.39	20.75	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.06	38.10	40.84	-0.02	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.06	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.35	0.00	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.74	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	31.82	32.81	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.06	27.27	27.33	-0.04	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.06	19.05	19.39	-0.06	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	23.81	33.67	-0.05	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.72	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.06	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.06	40.91	43.65	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.06	28.57	26.31	-0.04	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.75	-0.03	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.06	43.48	40.24	-0.00	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.05	62.50	62.42	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.05	82.61	81.41	0.05	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.05	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.05	66.67	69.71	0.01	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.05	75.00	75.73	0.04	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.05	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.05	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.08	0.05	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.05	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.05	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.05	86.96	83.30	0.03	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.04	0.05	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.04	0.05	75.00	74.01	0.02	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.03	80.95	77.45	0.04	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.77	-0.00	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.00	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.03	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.03	26.32	28.82	-0.00	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.51	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.20	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.69	0.01	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	40.96	-0.00	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.03	57.69	58.27	0.01	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.42	68.62	0.02	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.07	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.03	31.82	34.86	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.03	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.04	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.04	0.03	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.01
Denver	SB	0.04	0.03	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.04	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.04	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	85.71	78.11	0.03	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.04	0.03	45.45	44.27	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.04	0.03	0.00	5.31	-0.04	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.04	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.03	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.04	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.04	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.04	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.04	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.03	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.03	69.57	71.58	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.04	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.01	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.04	0.03	91.67	87.92	0.03	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.04	0.03	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.03	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.04	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.17	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.04	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.02	0.01