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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Jackson St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:221.0
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:332
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-4
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:209
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15221.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Oregon (2.0)P12A80-52L0%0.0
11-17Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA60-78W100%0.0
11-20Baylor (25.0)B12A77-60L0%0.0
11-22Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA78-69L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA86-82L0%0.0
11-27Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH69-42W100%0.0
11-29Marquette (110.0)BEA80-61L0%0.0
12-4Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA95-88L0%0.0
12-15Miami OH (195.0)MACA64-53L0%0.0
12-17Ohio (81.0)MACA72-67L0%0.0
12-30Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH89-66W100%0.0
1-2Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH68-61W100%0.0
1-4Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH67-66W100%0.0
1-9Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACA71-80W100%0.0
1-11Southern (186.0)SWACA74-66L0%0.0
1-16Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH65-71L0%0.0
1-18Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH60-57W100%0.0
1-23Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH60-45W100%0.0
1-30Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACA62-77W100%0.0
2-1Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACA53-66W100%0.0
2-6Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH64-72L0%0.0
2-8Southern (186.0)SWACH81-80W100%0.0
2-13Texas Southern (190.0)SWACA76-60L0%0.0
2-15Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACA66-80W100%0.0
2-20Grambling St. (350.0)SWACA58-61W100%0.0
2-27Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH60-49W100%0.0
2-29Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH67-56W100%0.0
3-3Alabama St. (265.0)SWACA71-54L0%0.0
3-5Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACA54-51L0%0.0
3-10Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACN69-51W100%0.0
3-11Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACN74-68W100%0.0
3-12Southern (186.0)SWACN53-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jackson St.SWAC26.5726.5758.9658.964.764.76
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC5.765.7625.0025.00-2.88-2.88
SouthernSWAC5.765.7660.7160.711.231.23
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.665.6625.0025.00-2.83-2.83
Texas SouthernSWAC4.254.2553.3353.330.280.28
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.214.2125.8125.81-2.04-2.04
Grambling St.SWAC4.204.2015.3815.38-2.91-2.91
Alabama A&MSWAC4.184.1834.6234.62-1.29-1.29
Alabama St.SWAC4.164.1640.7440.74-0.77-0.77
Alcorn St.SWAC4.154.1546.1546.15-0.32-0.32
Louisiana TechCUSA1.831.8368.9768.970.690.69
BaylorB121.761.7664.5264.520.510.51
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
OhioMAC1.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
Tennessee TechOVC1.651.6559.2659.260.310.31
Miami OHMAC1.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
OregonP121.641.6481.2581.251.031.03
Arkansas St.SB1.641.6428.5728.57-0.70-0.70
Savannah St.MEAC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE1.621.6259.3859.380.300.30
Southern MissCUSA1.611.6126.9226.92-0.75-0.75
TulaneAmer0.240.2435.2935.29-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.220.2234.4834.48-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.220.2247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.2079.3179.310.120.12
Tennessee St.OVC0.190.1964.2964.290.060.06
MemphisAmer0.190.1955.8855.880.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
UTSACUSA0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
Virginia TechACC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
TCUB120.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Texas St.SB0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3383.330.080.08
SeattleWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
ArkansasSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
UNLVMWC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1082.1482.140.060.06
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Air ForceMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.453.45-0.07-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
WyomingMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01