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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Jackson St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:323.0
Current RPI:323
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:343
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-11
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:303
Expected OOC SOS:268



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17323.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA84-71L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA84-75L0%0.0
11-21Marshall (112.0)CUSAA71-61L0%0.0
11-23Ohio St. (90.0)B10A78-47L0%0.0
11-26Western Carolina (271.0)SCH47-58L0%0.0
11-30Memphis (120.0)AmerA84-69L0%0.0
12-4Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH75-64W100%0.0
12-10Drake (314.0)MVCA63-68W100%0.0
12-17Baylor (11.0)B12N82-57L0%0.0
12-19Duquesne (267.0)A10A74-62L0%0.0
1-2Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA51-63W100%0.0
1-4Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA60-63W100%0.0
1-9Southern (320.0)SWACH65-61W100%0.0
1-11Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH50-63L0%0.0
1-14Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA63-56L0%0.0
1-16Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA67-44L0%0.0
1-21Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA72-57L0%0.0
1-28Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH83-68W100%0.0
1-30Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH74-59W100%0.0
2-4Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA69-58L0%0.0
2-6Southern (320.0)SWACA88-75L0%0.0
2-11Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH78-69W100%0.0
2-13Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH71-62W100%0.0
2-18Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH59-62L0%0.0
2-25Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACA70-67L0%0.0
2-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA51-62W100%0.0
3-2Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH72-64W100%0.0
3-4Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH65-59W100%0.0
3-7Southern (320.0)SWACA69-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jackson St.SWAC26.4426.4444.4444.44-2.94-2.94
SouthernSWAC6.196.1940.7440.74-1.15-1.15
Texas SouthernSWAC4.624.6268.7568.751.731.73
Alcorn St.SWAC4.604.6048.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Grambling St.SWAC4.524.5239.2939.29-0.97-0.97
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.514.5120.0020.00-2.70-2.70
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.474.4734.4834.48-1.39-1.39
Alabama St.SWAC4.464.4625.0025.00-2.23-2.23
Alabama A&MSWAC4.434.437.417.41-3.78-3.78
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.414.4121.4321.43-2.52-2.52
BaylorB121.861.8676.6776.670.990.99
MarshallCUSA1.841.8454.5554.550.170.17
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.811.8144.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Southern MissCUSA1.811.8125.0025.00-0.90-0.90
Ohio St.B101.811.8151.6151.610.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.811.8172.4172.410.810.81
Western CarolinaSC1.811.8120.6920.69-1.06-1.06
DrakeMVC1.781.7821.4321.43-1.02-1.02
DuquesneA101.721.7229.0329.03-0.72-0.72
MemphisAmer1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
Louisiana TechCUSA0.370.3767.7467.740.130.13
UABCUSA0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
TulaneAmer0.200.2019.3519.35-0.12-0.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1768.9768.970.060.06
RiceCUSA0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
TCUB120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Kansas St.B120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.113.333.33-0.11-0.11
North TexasCUSA0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
OhioMAC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
George WashingtonA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
SeattleWAC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
George MasonA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00