live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Jackson St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:303.6
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:347
Current SOS:268
Current Record:1-9
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-9
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12205.60.05%
18-13219.10.55%
17-14238.41.69%
16-15256.64.57%
15-16273.910.46%
14-17289.815.29%
13-18302.718.42%
12-19313.418.17%
11-20322.215.15%
10-21329.49.13%
9-22335.54.40%
8-23340.51.49%
7-24344.50.45%
6-25347.50.15%
5-26349.00.01%
3-28350.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Carolina St. (45.3)ACCA93-58L0%0.0
11-16South Florida (155.0)AmerA73-64L0%0.0
11-18Jacksonville (341.9)ASunA57-66W100%0.0
11-23UAB (217.8)CUSAA58-50L0%0.0
11-25St. Bonaventure (104.3)A10A79-71L0%0.0
11-28Hofstra (70.8)CAAH56-86L0%0.0
12-3Louisiana Lafayette (186.4)SBA76-53L0%0.0
12-6Louisiana Tech (118.0)CUSAA65-52L0%0.0
12-13Loyola Chicago (143.3)MVCA58-46L0%0.0
12-15Drake (284.4)MVCA76-66L0%0.0
12-18Southern Miss (255.6)CUSAH0-059%2.8
12-19Tulane (156.0)AmerA0-013%-13.1
12-22North Carolina Central (153.3)MEACH0-029%-6.5
1-3Alabama A&M (332.2)SWACA0-048%-0.5
1-5Alabama St. (227.4)SWACA0-018%-10.9
1-10Alcorn St. (324.2)SWACH0-074%7.6
1-12Southern (310.7)SWACH0-069%5.8
1-17Prairie View A&M (293.3)SWACA0-033%-5.3
1-19Texas Southern (230.0)SWACA0-024%-8.2
1-24Grambling St. (348.9)SWACA0-081%10.4
1-31Mississippi Valley St. (346.7)SWACA0-070%6.3
2-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (323.7)SWACH0-077%8.8
2-7Alcorn St. (324.2)SWACA0-046%-1.3
2-9Southern (310.7)SWACA0-040%-3.1
2-14Prairie View A&M (293.3)SWACH0-062%3.7
2-16Texas Southern (230.0)SWACH0-053%0.8
2-21Grambling St. (348.9)SWACH0-095%19.3
2-28Mississippi Valley St. (346.7)SWACH0-090%15.2
3-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (323.7)SWACA0-049%-0.2
3-5Alabama A&M (332.2)SWACH0-076%8.5
3-7Alabama St. (227.4)SWACH0-043%-2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jackson St.SWAC27.9826.3918.4243.99-17.67-3.17
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.2110.0018.29-0.00-2.67
SouthernSWAC0.254.200.0033.27-0.25-1.41
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.1511.1130.56-0.00-1.61
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.1511.1143.98-0.00-0.50
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.150.0037.76-0.00-1.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.140.0032.01-0.00-1.49
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.130.0031.55-0.00-1.52
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.130.0011.00-0.00-3.22
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.1333.3363.43-0.001.11
Louisiana TechCUSA5.361.8466.6765.351.790.56
TulaneAmer0.421.8087.5053.530.310.13
South FloridaAmer6.081.7842.8646.50-0.87-0.12
UABCUSA5.311.7525.0036.14-2.66-0.49
North Carolina St.ACC5.871.7277.7862.323.260.42
Southern MissCUSA0.001.7250.0032.430.00-0.60
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.001.7060.0053.051.000.10
HofstraCAA5.841.6975.0076.802.920.91
JacksonvilleASun5.841.690.0014.36-5.84-1.21
DrakeMVC5.001.6711.1117.73-3.89-1.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.6644.4469.73-0.000.66
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.251.6433.3351.08-1.750.04
St. BonaventureA105.001.6171.4363.392.140.43
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.2244.4444.49-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.2183.3358.570.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.2066.6772.150.000.09
North TexasCUSA0.000.1942.8636.73-0.00-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1875.0070.380.000.07
UTSACUSA0.420.1742.8635.74-0.06-0.05
TCUB120.000.17100.0067.440.000.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1750.0059.030.000.03
BaylorB120.000.1688.8975.070.000.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1655.5639.260.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.250.1550.0058.490.000.03
TroySB0.000.1533.3341.99-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.280.1462.5065.100.070.04
OhioMAC0.310.1450.0037.020.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1450.0051.980.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1416.6725.01-0.00-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1475.0065.380.000.04
TulsaAmer0.360.1455.5657.230.040.02
Texas TechB120.000.1487.5047.890.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.250.1460.0054.040.050.01
Iowa St.B120.000.1488.8964.670.000.04
Michigan St.B100.420.1370.0070.960.170.06
SMUAmer0.000.1366.6770.530.000.05
DaytonA100.000.1277.7869.570.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1230.0028.28-0.00-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.1275.0066.870.130.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1233.3332.65-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3334.47-0.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1242.8638.69-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1290.0079.360.000.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1260.0050.220.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.930.000.08
Air ForceMWC0.000.1157.1459.520.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1175.0050.490.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.1160.0047.810.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.560.1142.8633.13-0.08-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0022.93-0.00-0.06
FIUCUSA0.000.1150.0054.480.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1157.1456.000.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.1150.0030.140.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1170.0071.650.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1157.1447.630.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.280.1150.0056.650.000.01
FloridaSEC0.560.1160.0064.780.110.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1166.6753.390.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1080.0057.560.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.250.0925.0033.19-0.13-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6766.860.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0070.570.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0944.4449.79-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0920.0033.87-0.17-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0013.10-0.00-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.000.0977.7851.200.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0990.9171.250.000.04
PurdueB100.250.0972.7363.400.110.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0955.5638.250.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0918.1827.73-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0971.4372.840.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0039.43-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0933.3339.81-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0940.0049.29-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.310.0860.0064.120.060.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.280.0833.3347.11-0.09-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0855.5665.940.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.94-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0887.5080.890.000.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0850.0049.220.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0825.0037.29-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0816.6727.17-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.250.0850.0056.190.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0837.5037.27-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.360.0837.5032.05-0.09-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.080.008.21-0.00-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.250.0880.0069.650.150.03
Wake ForestACC0.250.0850.0037.860.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0857.1445.530.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.340.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0642.8644.96-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0677.7880.520.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.71-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3347.31-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.220.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.24-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0065.960.000.02
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.660.000.02
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.780.000.04
IUPUISum0.250.0620.0026.66-0.15-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6743.24-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5072.760.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8639.29-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0620.0033.83-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0070.980.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.82-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0061.230.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.31-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1129.36-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6765.150.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.850.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.310.0666.6755.560.100.01
LSUSEC0.000.0677.7861.940.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.060.0014.53-0.28-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.060.0035.83-0.25-0.02
SamfordSC0.530.0633.3331.09-0.18-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0034.21-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0633.3338.84-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.070.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.850.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6751.450.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8964.140.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5639.850.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.020.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0662.5078.030.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.060.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0511.1143.47-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0550.0049.920.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.310.0562.5053.840.080.00
Morehead St.OVC0.530.0520.0047.17-0.32-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0544.4433.13-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.250.0566.6757.080.080.01
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0056.480.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0511.1129.23-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0583.3363.180.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6745.880.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0045.540.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6776.390.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0537.5048.77-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0590.0091.020.000.04
High PointBSth0.000.0562.5055.430.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0566.6753.260.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0560.0038.270.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0514.2932.21-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0540.0065.07-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0575.0061.240.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0033.140.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0566.6744.720.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0571.4361.160.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0528.5726.77-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0566.6751.390.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0540.0058.50-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0086.080.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0557.1456.250.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0320.0026.45-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.370.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3340.42-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.440.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0333.3343.17-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.420.0320.0020.84-0.25-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.420.0371.4360.170.180.01
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.920.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0037.42-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.150.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0322.2236.43-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0342.8656.16-0.000.00
IPFWSum0.280.0357.1456.130.040.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.360.0325.0049.05-0.18-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.360.0333.3334.02-0.12-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.360.0344.4444.67-0.04-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.93-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.310.0375.0069.770.160.01
CanisiusMAAC0.310.0350.0061.890.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.310.0344.4447.41-0.03-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.910.000.01
DePaulBE0.250.0366.6739.030.08-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.72-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.250.0371.4377.180.110.02
NiagaraMAAC0.310.0314.2932.16-0.22-0.01
PortlandWCC0.250.0375.0049.190.13-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0355.5631.620.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.310.0337.5051.38-0.080.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.670.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.110.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.250.0362.5054.950.060.00
AmericanPat0.250.0360.0065.090.050.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4450.93-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.310.0350.0053.430.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0019.38-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.250.030.009.06-0.25-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0388.8964.060.000.01
UCLAP120.280.0372.7357.470.130.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.280.0314.2945.16-0.20-0.00
WisconsinB100.280.0390.9188.300.230.02
Boise St.MWC0.250.0375.0067.800.130.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.850.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.95-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.250.0350.0046.750.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5064.640.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.520.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0040.22-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.390.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.840.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.280.0337.5054.91-0.070.00
WagnerNEC0.280.0314.2933.61-0.20-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0067.550.000.01
WoffordSC0.250.0375.0077.280.130.01