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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Jackson St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:322.0
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:296
Current Record:6-24
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-12
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:4


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-24322.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida (30.0)SECA99-59L0%0.0
11-13Baylor (8.0)B12A92-59L0%0.0
11-16Wright St. (224.0)HorzA56-39L0%0.0
11-18Ohio St. (7.0)B10A85-41L0%0.0
11-22Tulsa (120.0)CUSAH51-57L0%0.0
11-25North Florida (180.0)ASunA69-60L0%0.0
11-28Memphis (16.0)CUSAA70-45L0%0.0
12-11California (37.0)P12A73-46L0%0.0
12-13St. Mary's (28.0)WCCA77-53L0%0.0
12-15Southern Methodist (212.0)CUSAN58-59W100%0.0
12-18North Texas (200.0)SBA69-55L0%0.0
1-3Alabama A&M (342.0)SWACH55-52W100%0.0
1-5Alabama St. (308.0)SWACH78-81L0%0.0
1-7Alcorn St. (335.0)SWACA63-60L0%0.0
1-9Southern (281.0)SWACA68-37L0%0.0
1-14Prairie View A&M (294.0)SWACH66-72L0%0.0
1-16Texas Southern (234.0)SWACH54-51W100%0.0
1-21Grambling (341.0)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
1-28Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)SWACA60-54L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA73-69L0%0.0
2-4Alcorn St. (335.0)SWACH46-57L0%0.0
2-6Southern (281.0)SWACH44-49L0%0.0
2-11Prairie View A&M (294.0)SWACA48-62W100%0.0
2-13Texas Southern (234.0)SWACA64-57L0%0.0
2-18Grambling (341.0)SWACA60-63W100%0.0
2-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH44-46L0%0.0
2-27Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)SWACH69-78L0%0.0
3-1Alabama A&M (342.0)SWACA73-53L0%0.0
3-3Alabama St. (308.0)SWACA49-46L0%0.0
3-7Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)SWACN63-60L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jackson St.SWAC26.4326.4321.5421.54-15.05-15.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.046.0460.0060.001.211.21
Texas SouthernSWAC4.534.5345.1645.16-0.44-0.44
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.464.4629.0329.03-1.87-1.87
Alcorn St.SWAC4.394.3919.2319.23-2.70-2.70
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.374.3737.0437.04-1.13-1.13
Alabama St.SWAC4.344.3429.6329.63-1.77-1.77
Alabama A&MSWAC4.324.3216.6716.67-2.88-2.88
GramblingSWAC4.314.3115.3815.38-2.99-2.99
SouthernSWAC4.284.2846.1546.15-0.33-0.33
FloridaSEC1.821.8268.7568.750.680.68
BaylorB121.801.8078.1278.121.011.01
Southern MethodistCUSA1.801.8037.9337.93-0.43-0.43
TulsaCUSA1.751.7553.3353.330.120.12
Ohio St.B101.751.7578.7978.791.011.01
North FloridaASun1.741.7446.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Wright St.Horz1.741.7436.6736.67-0.46-0.46
North TexasSB1.731.7350.0050.000.000.00
MemphisCUSA1.721.7275.7675.760.890.89
St. Mary'sWCC1.691.6982.7682.761.111.11
CaliforniaP121.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
TulaneCUSA0.320.3244.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.270.2746.8846.88-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
NorthwesternB100.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
MichiganB100.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
ArkansasSEC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Texas A&MB120.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
HoustonCUSA0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Iowa St.B120.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
DenverSB0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Brigham YoungWCC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Florida InternationalSB0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiBE0.130.1370.5970.590.060.06
Central FloridaCUSA0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
DePaulBE0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
WisconsinB100.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Michigan St.B100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Texas ChristianMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
NebraskaB100.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
St. LouisA100.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
MissouriB120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
KansasB120.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0934.6234.62-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
ButlerHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
BelmontASun0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
LipscombASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Notre DameBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
StanfordP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Longwoodind0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
NevadaWAC0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0596.4396.430.050.05
Arizona St.P120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.WAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
SyracuseBE0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
IowaB100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01