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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Jackson St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:322.0
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:346
Current SOS:346
Current Record:11-21
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-11
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:302
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21322.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA93-58L0%0.0
11-16South Florida (273.0)AmerA73-64L0%0.0
11-18Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA57-66W100%0.0
11-23UAB (130.0)CUSAA58-50L0%0.0
11-25St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A79-71L0%0.0
11-28Hofstra (174.0)CAAH56-86L0%0.0
12-3Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBA76-53L0%0.0
12-6Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA65-52L0%0.0
12-13Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA58-46L0%0.0
12-15Drake (269.0)MVCA76-66L0%0.0
12-18Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH66-46W100%0.0
12-19Tulane (214.0)AmerA56-49L0%0.0
12-22North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH64-67L0%0.0
1-3Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA67-70W100%0.0
1-5Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA72-52L0%0.0
1-10Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH64-54W100%0.0
1-12Southern (223.0)SWACH52-60L0%0.0
1-17Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACA70-55L0%0.0
1-19Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA67-54L0%0.0
1-24Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA63-74W100%0.0
1-31Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA75-62L0%0.0
2-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH69-45W100%0.0
2-7Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA61-64W100%0.0
2-9Southern (223.0)SWACA52-62W100%0.0
2-14Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH55-61L0%0.0
2-16Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH70-71L0%0.0
2-21Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH72-33W100%0.0
2-28Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH73-49W100%0.0
3-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA64-62L0%0.0
3-5Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH72-54W100%0.0
3-7Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH42-62L0%0.0
3-12Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACN62-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jackson St.SWAC26.3826.3837.3237.32-6.69-6.69
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.575.5737.9337.93-1.34-1.34
SouthernSWAC4.224.2246.6746.67-0.28-0.28
Texas SouthernSWAC4.194.1962.5062.501.051.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.124.1216.6716.67-2.74-2.74
Alcorn St.SWAC4.104.1017.8617.86-2.64-2.64
Alabama St.SWAC4.094.0960.0060.000.820.82
Alabama A&MSWAC4.044.0430.7730.77-1.55-1.55
Grambling St.SWAC4.044.040.000.00-4.04-4.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.014.0136.6736.67-1.07-1.07
Louisiana TechCUSA1.791.7974.1974.190.870.87
TulaneAmer1.741.7444.8344.83-0.18-0.18
UABCUSA1.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
South FloridaAmer1.711.7123.3323.33-0.91-0.91
North Carolina St.ACC1.661.6659.3859.380.310.31
Southern MissCUSA1.661.6626.9226.92-0.77-0.77
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
HofstraCAA1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
JacksonvilleASun1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
DrakeMVC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.84-0.84
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
St. BonaventureA101.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.230.2352.9452.940.010.01
HoustonAmer0.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
TCUB120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
MemphisAmer0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
RiceCUSA0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
BaylorB120.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
UTSACUSA0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
TroySB0.130.1329.6329.63-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
BradleyMVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1390.9190.910.110.11
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
OhioMAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
Michigan St.B100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.1087.100.080.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
RichmondA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01