live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 5, 2016.


Jackson St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:300.4
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:342
Current SOS:187
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-9
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:325
Expected OOC SOS:228



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9190.30.03%
18-10204.90.30%
17-11223.91.18%
16-12243.63.31%
15-13261.28.16%
14-14279.014.68%
13-15294.818.56%
12-16308.820.15%
11-17319.615.96%
10-18328.79.71%
9-19335.65.04%
8-20341.32.17%
7-21344.60.54%
6-22347.90.18%
5-23350.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Southeastern Louisiana (230.0)SlndA84-71L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina Central (173.4)MEACA84-75L0%0.0
11-21Marshall (112.3)CUSAA71-61L0%0.0
11-23Ohio St. (38.4)B10A78-47L0%0.0
11-26Western Carolina (271.2)SCH47-58L0%0.0
11-30Memphis (140.7)AmerA84-69L0%0.0
12-4Southern Miss (326.3)CUSAH75-64W100%0.0
12-10Drake (310.3)MVCA0-031%-5.9
12-17Baylor (8.2)B12N0-01%-29.1
12-19Duquesne (227.9)A10A0-018%-10.9
1-2Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA0-079%9.7
1-4Alabama St. (329.0)SWACA0-053%0.8
1-7Alcorn St. (319.7)SWACH0-073%7.5
1-9Southern (234.2)SWACH0-045%-1.6
1-14Prairie View A&M (312.9)SWACA0-055%1.5
1-16Texas Southern (105.8)SWACA0-011%-14.8
1-21Grambling St. (338.1)SWACA0-063%4.0
1-28Mississippi Valley St. (316.1)SWACH0-077%8.9
1-30Arkansas Pine Bluff (335.2)SWACH0-080%10.1
2-4Alcorn St. (319.7)SWACA0-054%1.3
2-6Southern (234.2)SWACA0-026%-7.8
2-11Prairie View A&M (312.9)SWACH0-074%7.7
2-13Texas Southern (105.8)SWACH0-024%-8.6
2-18Grambling St. (338.1)SWACH0-080%10.2
2-25Mississippi Valley St. (316.1)SWACA0-059%2.7
2-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (335.2)SWACA0-063%3.9
3-2Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-091%16.0
3-4Alabama St. (329.0)SWACH0-072%7.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jackson St.SWAC28.8326.4112.0047.07-21.91-1.55
SouthernSWAC0.004.6140.0058.51-0.000.78
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.600.0024.96-0.00-2.30
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.5950.0065.130.001.39
Alabama A&MSWAC0.894.590.0013.46-0.89-3.35
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.560.0023.51-0.00-2.42
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.5614.2931.17-0.00-1.72
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.5612.5033.24-0.00-1.53
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.5525.0032.19-0.00-1.62
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.540.0032.11-0.00-1.62
MarshallCUSA8.611.9166.6753.382.870.13
BaylorB120.001.91100.0075.470.000.97
Ohio St.B108.671.8885.7167.496.200.66
Western CarolinaSC8.611.8816.6720.33-5.74-1.11
Southern MissCUSA7.141.8833.3321.58-2.38-1.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC8.611.8850.0070.450.000.77
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd7.141.8533.3348.56-2.38-0.05
DrakeMVC0.001.840.0017.80-0.00-1.19
DuquesneA100.001.7944.4440.76-0.00-0.33
MemphisAmer7.141.7971.4354.493.060.16
Louisiana TechCUSA0.510.3857.1472.470.070.17
UABCUSA0.000.3150.0059.930.000.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1925.0027.54-0.00-0.08
TulaneAmer0.510.1912.5023.71-0.38-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1942.8658.06-0.000.03
TCUB120.000.18100.0061.160.000.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1625.0029.46-0.00-0.06
RiceCUSA0.000.1675.0070.650.000.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1637.5034.91-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1575.0071.600.000.06
West VirginiaB120.000.1585.7183.370.000.10
Michigan St.B100.000.1455.5658.500.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1342.8644.47-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1357.1436.140.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1371.4358.580.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0020.80-0.00-0.08
North TexasCUSA0.000.1333.3330.48-0.00-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.510.1320.0035.62-0.31-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0022.51-0.00-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.510.1377.7849.540.28-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.450.130.0019.16-0.45-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1360.0058.500.000.02
LSUSEC0.890.1371.4349.210.38-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1250.0058.010.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1212.5037.47-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.1242.8636.17-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1257.1454.410.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1257.1444.820.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.890.1275.0056.780.450.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1257.1449.200.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1287.5058.670.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1271.4354.250.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1255.5641.720.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1285.7177.980.000.07
SeattleWAC0.000.1216.6738.78-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.1277.7875.900.000.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1287.5082.460.000.08
CaliforniaP120.510.1085.7162.380.360.02
Colorado St.MWC0.510.1071.4360.370.220.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.510.100.0034.63-0.51-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1060.0069.260.000.04
MissouriSEC0.510.0957.1442.470.07-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0971.4351.460.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0987.5076.180.000.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0971.4367.900.000.03
OhioMAC0.510.0983.3371.480.340.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0916.6730.41-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.450.090.0017.61-0.45-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0920.0022.80-0.27-0.05
VirginiaACC0.450.0987.5078.760.330.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0966.6740.560.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0971.4372.990.000.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0950.0041.280.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0962.5046.900.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0971.4347.980.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0975.0054.990.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0987.5075.700.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0942.8644.97-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0987.5074.500.000.04
La SalleA100.000.0966.6755.480.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0066.180.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0785.7153.730.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0716.6744.42-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2935.75-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.99-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.730.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.61-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.78-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8631.01-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.72-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0675.0086.690.000.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.40-0.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.13-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.64-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.59-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.38-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.140.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.18-0.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.750.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0039.21-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.860.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.31-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.230.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.81-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.07-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0611.1120.28-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0041.82-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.380.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7169.610.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.520.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.310.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.11-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.79-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.92-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.19-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.190.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.410.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.37-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.690.000.00
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.540.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.540.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.520.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.16-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.440.000.05
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3349.96-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.460.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.470.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5061.690.000.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.370.000.01
MississippiSEC0.450.0675.0048.640.22-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0049.490.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.000.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.820.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.210.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.470.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0671.4370.760.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0092.290.000.05
IowaB100.450.0644.4438.90-0.05-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.18-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3348.14-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.370.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.220.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0687.5067.900.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.480.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.79-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.700.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1432.990.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.560.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0037.680.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7175.770.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0622.2238.53-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.400.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.300.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.000.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.890.0371.4358.010.380.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.17-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.85-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.75-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0371.4355.810.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.31-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.97-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.510.0357.1453.600.070.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.80-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.740.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.070.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.970.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0040.38-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.480.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.510.0316.6729.76-0.34-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.650.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0342.8646.59-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.510.0375.0066.420.260.01
Miami FLACC0.510.0375.0066.550.260.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.24-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.450.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.960.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.510.0350.0051.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.900.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.510.0316.6738.62-0.34-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.65-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.660.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.960.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.24-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0333.3332.88-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.08-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5029.43-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.160.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.450.0316.6739.71-0.30-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.590.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.830.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.99-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.620.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.440.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.450.0337.5037.68-0.11-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.290.000.01
NavyPat0.450.0325.0037.38-0.22-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.290.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.240.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.260.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.58-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.270.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.35-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.710.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.82-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.530.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.500.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.81-0.00-0.01