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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Jackson St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:296.0
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:320
Current SOS:320
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-12
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:153
Expected OOC SOS:82



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20296.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA67-51L0%0.0
11-11Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH61-65L0%0.0
11-14Air Force (251.0)MWCA82-84W100%0.0
11-16Colorado (34.0)P12A94-70L0%0.0
11-18Wyoming (135.0)MWCA73-65L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA64-68W100%0.0
11-27Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA58-56L0%0.0
12-1Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH61-72L0%0.0
12-7Tulane (223.0)CUSAA70-65L0%0.0
12-14Evansville (214.0)MVCA51-57W100%0.0
12-19Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH73-70W100%0.0
12-28Memphis (37.0)AmerA75-61L0%0.0
1-4Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH61-68L0%0.0
1-6Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH70-68W100%0.0
1-11Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACA64-51L0%0.0
1-13Southern (171.0)SWACA60-36L0%0.0
1-18Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH80-85L0%0.0
1-20Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH84-80W100%0.0
1-25Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH76-59W100%0.0
2-1Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACA69-66L0%0.0
2-3Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACA70-69L0%0.0
2-8Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH71-61W100%0.0
2-10Southern (171.0)SWACH63-68L0%0.0
2-15Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA53-50L0%0.0
2-17Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA73-75W100%0.0
2-22Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA59-79W100%0.0
3-1Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH82-64W100%0.0
3-3Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH59-66L0%0.0
3-6Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA72-59L0%0.0
3-8Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA67-63L0%0.0
3-11Grambling St. (348.0)SWACN75-84L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jackson St.SWAC26.4626.4638.1338.13-6.28-6.28
Grambling St.SWAC5.795.7912.5012.50-4.34-4.34
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.434.4325.8125.81-2.14-2.14
Texas SouthernSWAC4.384.3860.0060.000.880.88
Alabama St.SWAC4.304.3057.6957.690.660.66
Alabama A&MSWAC4.274.2738.4638.46-0.99-0.99
SouthernSWAC4.274.2751.8551.850.160.16
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.264.2633.3333.33-1.42-1.42
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.244.2418.5218.52-2.67-2.67
Alcorn St.SWAC4.234.2330.7730.77-1.63-1.63
TulaneCUSA1.801.8048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA1.771.7778.1278.121.001.00
WyomingMWC1.751.7551.7251.720.060.06
Air ForceMWC1.751.7537.0437.04-0.45-0.45
Arkansas St.SB1.741.7455.1755.170.180.18
ColoradoP121.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
Mississippi St.SEC1.721.7240.6240.62-0.32-0.32
Southern MissCUSA1.711.7180.0080.001.031.03
EvansvilleMVC1.701.7040.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
Tennessee MartinOVC1.691.6921.4321.43-0.97-0.97
MemphisAmer1.611.6170.0070.000.650.65
Arkansas Little RockSB0.330.3343.3343.33-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Missouri St.MVC0.200.2061.2961.290.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
TCUB120.160.1624.1424.14-0.09-0.09
UNLVMWC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
MarquetteBE0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
DenverSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
HoustonAmer0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
SMUAmer0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
UABCUSA0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
Texas St.SB0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1334.6234.62-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
WashingtonP120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
FIUCUSA0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
NevadaMWC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
FloridaSEC0.110.1194.1294.120.090.09
BaylorB120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01