live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Jackson St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:205.2
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:337
Current SOS:326
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-4
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:228
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10166.22.97%
18-11180.515.00%
17-12195.330.54%
16-13210.729.83%
15-14227.615.52%
14-15246.55.15%
13-16267.20.88%
12-17284.70.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Oregon (5.9)P12A80-52L0%0.0
11-17Southern Miss (290.4)CUSAA60-78W100%0.0
11-20Baylor (27.3)B12A77-60L0%0.0
11-22Arkansas St. (227.7)SBA78-69L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee Tech (107.4)OVCA86-82L0%0.0
11-27Savannah St. (337.2)MEACH69-42W100%0.0
11-29Marquette (119.7)BEA80-61L0%0.0
12-4Louisiana Tech (118.2)CUSAA95-88L0%0.0
12-15Miami OH (238.4)MACA64-53L0%0.0
12-17Ohio (117.9)MACA72-67L0%0.0
12-30Southeastern Louisiana (334.7)SlndH89-66W100%0.0
1-2Alabama St. (302.2)SWACH68-61W100%0.0
1-4Alabama A&M (299.1)SWACH67-66W100%0.0
1-9Alcorn St. (308.0)SWACA71-80W100%0.0
1-11Southern (176.1)SWACA74-66L0%0.0
1-16Texas Southern (178.9)SWACH65-71L0%0.0
1-18Prairie View A&M (345.4)SWACH60-57W100%0.0
1-23Grambling St. (344.2)SWACH60-45W100%0.0
1-30Mississippi Valley St. (324.6)SWACA62-77W100%0.0
2-1Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.2)SWACA53-66W100%0.0
2-6Alcorn St. (308.0)SWACH0-091%14.8
2-8Southern (176.1)SWACH0-060%2.8
2-13Texas Southern (178.9)SWACA0-030%-5.8
2-15Prairie View A&M (345.4)SWACA0-077%8.0
2-20Grambling St. (344.2)SWACA0-083%10.5
2-27Mississippi Valley St. (324.6)SWACH0-091%15.0
2-29Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.2)SWACH0-093%16.1
3-3Alabama St. (302.2)SWACA0-062%3.3
3-5Alabama A&M (299.1)SWACA0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jackson St.SWAC26.2526.4157.5063.543.947.15
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.154.4822.7326.01-1.72-2.15
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.134.475.0014.18-2.82-3.20
SouthernSWAC3.134.4661.1165.860.701.42
Grambling St.SWAC3.124.4617.6521.70-2.02-2.52
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.084.4518.1822.92-1.96-2.41
Texas SouthernSWAC3.074.4445.0055.28-0.310.47
Alabama St.SWAC3.014.4027.7834.97-1.34-1.32
Alcorn St.SWAC3.004.4035.2936.56-0.88-1.18
Alabama A&MSWAC3.004.4037.5046.21-0.75-0.33
Louisiana TechCUSA2.831.9773.6871.231.340.84
BaylorB122.801.9375.0066.231.400.63
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.621.8411.1126.27-2.04-0.87
OhioMAC2.551.8457.8956.460.400.24
OregonP122.691.8280.9577.461.661.00
Miami OHMAC2.561.8225.0026.43-1.28-0.86
Arkansas St.SB2.681.8142.1139.75-0.42-0.37
Savannah St.MEAC2.681.8133.3334.85-0.89-0.55
Tennessee TechOVC2.611.8165.0064.080.780.51
MarquetteBE2.571.7963.6455.080.700.18
Southern MissCUSA2.631.7835.2934.94-0.77-0.54
Tennessee St.OVC0.260.2265.0060.810.080.05
TulaneAmer0.270.2233.3332.41-0.09-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.2126.3236.93-0.12-0.06
NebraskaB100.230.1952.1751.560.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1926.0925.56-0.07-0.09
UTEPCUSA0.200.1950.0050.040.000.00
MemphisAmer0.270.1959.0958.550.050.03
Ball St.MAC0.200.1861.9058.190.050.03
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1873.9176.040.090.09
UTSACUSA0.190.1814.2913.97-0.14-0.13
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1881.8281.010.120.11
Virginia TechACC0.190.1852.1747.250.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.120.1830.0029.46-0.05-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1621.0523.70-0.12-0.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.190.1565.0068.750.060.06
TCUB120.180.1445.4537.84-0.02-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.1326.0930.33-0.10-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.1347.6247.96-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.190.1345.4547.97-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.140.1371.4370.600.060.05
RiceCUSA0.060.1225.0028.19-0.03-0.05
UABCUSA0.070.1281.8278.320.040.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1242.8641.75-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.120.1281.8279.750.080.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1255.0048.870.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.1257.1457.510.010.02
Kent St.MAC0.180.1266.6761.680.060.03
Texas St.SB0.120.1241.1840.28-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.180.1236.3630.98-0.05-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1250.0050.510.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1268.7574.730.070.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1163.6468.210.050.04
CreightonBE0.060.1160.8759.050.010.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1172.7368.840.050.04
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1150.0045.730.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.110.1161.9054.010.030.01
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3380.130.070.06
SeattleWAC0.110.1145.0042.81-0.01-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.130.1047.6252.92-0.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1014.2916.31-0.10-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1050.0046.870.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1052.3854.240.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.1047.6252.96-0.000.01
Ohio St.B100.130.0958.3354.120.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.0950.0054.850.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.130.0985.7184.560.090.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.0936.8437.30-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.110.0969.5770.030.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.130.0961.1158.300.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0947.8350.56-0.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.190.0935.0034.93-0.06-0.03
TroySB0.130.0920.0023.76-0.08-0.05
HowardMEAC0.060.0940.0042.53-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.120.0972.7368.550.060.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.0923.8128.31-0.10-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.120.094.557.91-0.11-0.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0916.6724.27-0.04-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.0957.8961.920.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.0966.6760.120.040.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.0918.7526.09-0.08-0.04
ToledoMAC0.120.0957.1457.560.020.01
UNLVMWC0.120.0952.3857.440.010.01
Washington St.P120.060.0938.1033.45-0.01-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.110.0942.8635.05-0.02-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0925.0029.52-0.06-0.04
WisconsinB100.110.0960.8755.900.020.01
XavierBE0.110.0890.9184.430.090.06
CincinnatiAmer0.120.0873.9173.090.060.04
Saint LouisA100.070.0738.1033.38-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0645.4541.98-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0682.6177.370.050.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0666.6767.310.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0637.5036.54-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.0638.1047.51-0.03-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.130.0636.3642.19-0.04-0.01
FIUCUSA0.130.0642.8645.93-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0670.0068.920.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.0661.9060.410.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0654.5561.950.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.0618.1822.83-0.08-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0657.8957.330.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0654.5553.020.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0659.0959.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0665.0063.370.020.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0640.9140.46-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.130.0657.1452.310.020.00
LipscombASun0.120.0621.7427.64-0.07-0.03
IowaB100.110.0681.8279.900.070.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0633.3333.55-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0627.2730.43-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.0086.120.050.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0645.0049.60-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.130.0668.1863.250.050.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0640.0044.95-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0618.7533.17-0.04-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0629.4138.47-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0610.0015.28-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0638.8943.22-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0681.8281.010.080.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0635.0036.57-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0626.0927.58-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6461.810.020.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0663.6462.340.020.01
ColoradoP120.110.0672.7366.970.050.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0672.7368.010.030.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0659.0959.680.010.01
KansasB120.060.0680.9577.000.040.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0659.0955.550.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0663.6464.090.020.02
OklahomaB120.060.0690.4884.890.050.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0054.590.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0652.3853.620.000.00
StanfordP120.060.0652.6347.690.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.710.020.01
TexasB120.060.0668.1861.780.020.01
UCLAP120.060.0656.5253.350.010.00
USCP120.060.0678.2673.130.030.03
VCUA100.060.0677.2776.780.030.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0681.8278.720.000.03
Arizona St.P120.110.0652.1750.240.000.00
IUPUISum0.110.0641.6740.25-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0668.1866.490.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0636.3634.95-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.5253.460.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0678.2671.960.030.02
Seton HallBE0.110.0672.7368.630.050.02
St. John'sBE0.110.0627.2724.41-0.05-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.3685.330.040.04
ArmyPat0.050.0554.5556.020.000.01
BYUWCC0.050.0569.5773.030.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0566.6758.760.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0582.6181.380.040.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0566.6763.480.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0531.8232.32-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0328.5734.73-0.03-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0330.0030.38-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0315.7922.51-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0310.0014.87-0.05-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0360.0061.350.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0327.2732.84-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0321.0529.16-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0320.8320.11-0.04-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0357.1457.930.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0338.1042.99-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0322.7323.37-0.03-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0354.5552.750.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0355.5650.840.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0353.3355.180.000.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0363.6456.050.020.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0370.0069.070.030.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0373.6870.400.030.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0363.6459.950.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0347.8343.92-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.060.0378.2677.230.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0366.6766.030.020.01
DaytonA100.060.0385.7181.220.040.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0360.0057.290.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0360.0056.080.010.00
IPFWSum0.060.0373.9170.210.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0342.8651.33-0.010.00
NavyPat0.060.0365.2265.230.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0347.8348.69-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0372.7371.670.030.01
UCFAmer0.060.0355.0047.170.01-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0380.9583.050.040.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0359.0962.730.010.01
WashingtonP120.000.0368.1862.190.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0354.5555.190.010.00
LSUSEC0.050.0363.6459.440.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0336.3635.58-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0326.3227.34-0.03-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.58-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0325.0029.75-0.03-0.01