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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:204.0
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:255
Current SOS:310
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:138



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10141.20.21%
16-11158.13.29%
15-12175.615.40%
14-13193.930.68%
13-14212.730.94%
12-15232.515.41%
11-16252.23.74%
10-17270.10.32%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13New Mexico St. (119.9)WACA91-69L0%0.0
11-19TCU (167.7)B12A90-63L0%0.0
11-21Illinois St. (110.9)MVCA72-56L0%0.0
11-24South Dakota St. (44.1)SumN68-92L0%0.0
11-25Rider (233.6)MAACN56-67L0%0.0
12-2Rice (297.8)CUSAH77-73W100%0.0
12-5Michigan (47.4)B10A82-57L0%0.0
12-15UC Riverside (264.2)BWH72-59W100%0.0
12-19Arizona St. (71.2)P12A98-79L0%0.0
1-2Northwestern St. (331.5)SlndA73-99W100%0.0
1-5McNeese St. (323.6)SlndH82-73W100%0.0
1-9Southeastern Louisiana (337.6)SlndH77-58W100%0.0
1-13Nicholls St. (324.4)SlndH78-69W100%0.0
1-16New Orleans (317.9)SlndA69-73W100%0.0
1-19Central Arkansas (321.9)SlndA61-72W100%0.0
1-23Lamar (335.9)SlndA79-92W100%0.0
1-30Sam Houston St. (188.2)SlndH70-69W100%0.0
2-2Abilene Christian (317.1)SlndA79-72L0%0.0
2-6Stephen F. Austin (95.4)SlndH66-72L0%0.0
2-8Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndA83-76L0%0.0
2-13Sam Houston St. (188.2)SlndA0-032%-5.0
2-15Lamar (335.9)SlndH0-081%9.5
2-18Abilene Christian (317.1)SlndH0-082%10.1
2-22Incarnate Word (186.5)SlndH0-060%2.9
2-27Stephen F. Austin (95.4)SlndA0-010%-13.7
3-3Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndH0-045%-1.5
3-5Incarnate Word (186.5)SlndA0-036%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd26.1726.3354.7652.522.491.33
LamarSlnd3.244.6431.5830.80-1.19-1.78
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.184.6431.5832.95-1.17-1.58
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.124.6170.5974.121.292.22
Incarnate WordSlnd0.754.6055.5652.550.080.23
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.084.5875.0072.001.542.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.084.5747.3750.39-0.160.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.072.7215.0025.75-2.15-1.32
Nicholls St.Slnd3.022.7019.0521.82-1.87-1.52
Central ArkansasSlnd3.082.6925.0030.61-1.54-1.04
McNeese St.Slnd3.082.6923.5332.42-1.63-0.94
New OrleansSlnd3.072.6827.7833.71-1.36-0.87
Northwestern St.Slnd3.062.6818.7527.76-1.91-1.19
RiceCUSA2.612.0328.5729.16-1.12-0.85
UC RiversideBW2.682.0247.8343.08-0.12-0.28
TCUB122.732.0243.4837.34-0.36-0.51
Arizona St.P122.571.9254.1752.080.210.08
Illinois St.MVC2.611.9154.1752.500.220.10
South Dakota St.Sum2.601.9172.7373.701.180.91
MichiganB102.501.8569.5765.600.980.58
New Mexico St.WAC2.501.8563.6467.450.680.65
RiderMAAC2.501.8536.0039.41-0.70-0.39
CaliforniaP120.170.2366.6764.780.060.07
OklahomaB120.180.2086.9682.620.130.13
BaylorB120.250.2073.9168.450.120.07
UTEPCUSA0.230.1754.1754.210.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.230.1631.8232.47-0.08-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.170.1669.5770.020.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.220.169.0912.25-0.18-0.12
Texas TechB120.170.1660.8755.310.040.02
SMUAmer0.220.1686.9682.930.170.11
TexasB120.220.1666.6762.200.070.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.1450.0051.280.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1414.2915.47-0.08-0.09
PurdueB100.050.1480.0077.900.030.08
UABCUSA0.180.1383.3379.820.120.08
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1356.0055.450.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1340.0042.85-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.170.1352.0050.770.010.00
UTSACUSA0.180.1313.0412.96-0.13-0.10
DrakeMVC0.160.1320.8323.28-0.09-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1373.0872.610.050.06
New MexicoMWC0.220.1358.3360.710.040.03
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1375.0075.350.080.06
Cal PolyBW0.110.1328.5734.10-0.05-0.04
BradleyMVC0.170.1312.0011.95-0.13-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1366.6767.660.050.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1245.4551.69-0.010.00
MarylandB100.150.1287.5083.680.110.08
TulaneAmer0.140.1136.0034.84-0.04-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.1040.0045.19-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.130.1040.0038.87-0.03-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1063.6461.560.030.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1025.0025.09-0.06-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1041.6742.39-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1028.5732.73-0.05-0.03
ArizonaP120.120.1080.0078.730.070.06
DenverSum0.160.1052.0049.300.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.110.1050.0050.080.000.00
WisconsinB100.060.1062.5056.990.010.01
UCLAP120.120.1054.1752.980.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.110.0947.8351.93-0.000.00
MinnesotaB100.160.0925.0027.25-0.08-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.110.0937.5042.32-0.03-0.01
HawaiiBW0.110.0985.0083.450.080.06
CanisiusMAAC0.150.0942.3144.49-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.150.0962.5060.140.040.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0725.0023.43-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0760.0062.260.030.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0028.14-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0747.6248.05-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0734.7836.54-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0745.4554.18-0.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0752.0048.910.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0731.8232.68-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.130.0743.4842.42-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0731.8236.13-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0754.5552.530.010.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0759.0956.880.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0765.3865.500.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0738.4638.04-0.01-0.02
IndianaB100.120.0780.0075.690.070.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0764.0062.090.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.0786.3684.240.090.05
Chicago St.WAC0.050.074.357.71-0.05-0.06
FurmanSC0.060.0756.0054.430.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0783.3382.090.070.04
IUPUISum0.110.0738.4638.50-0.03-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0758.3358.580.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0760.8759.830.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0745.4543.98-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0744.0043.56-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.0733.3334.95-0.04-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.110.0766.6769.760.040.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0731.5832.03-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0770.8368.650.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.0668.1867.730.040.02
RutgersB100.110.0621.7420.33-0.06-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.0666.6763.330.040.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0672.7370.510.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0658.3363.160.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0630.0031.76-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0621.7422.78-0.06-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0669.5770.090.040.03
San FranciscoWCC0.110.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.060.0670.8365.570.020.02
Oregon St.P120.110.0663.6458.770.030.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0633.3330.63-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0631.8230.08-0.04-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0672.0073.080.040.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0679.1778.890.030.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0645.8343.78-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0637.5037.41-0.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.100.0650.0046.760.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.100.0638.1035.34-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0673.9176.700.020.03
KentuckySEC0.100.0675.0072.620.050.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0619.0525.89-0.06-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0650.0048.970.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.100.0652.1755.080.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0654.1754.100.010.00
IonaMAAC0.100.0660.8760.730.020.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0670.8367.960.020.02
KansasB120.100.0682.6179.210.070.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0658.3356.290.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.4543.17-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0680.7781.890.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0623.0823.85-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0645.8342.30-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0634.7834.94-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.0656.0055.750.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.0643.4844.24-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0665.3864.920.010.02
StanfordP120.050.0647.6244.07-0.00-0.01
USCP120.100.0675.0071.140.050.03
Washington St.P120.100.0634.7831.64-0.03-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.100.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0621.7424.25-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0450.0052.940.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0439.1335.44-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0445.4549.06-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0462.5058.940.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0447.6249.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.070.0462.5059.070.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0460.8757.170.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0450.0045.860.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0460.8756.270.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0340.9138.83-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.880.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0336.3638.95-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.24-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0372.7367.600.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0326.9228.60-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.330.020.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0366.6764.730.020.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.54-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0324.0025.68-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0372.0071.570.030.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0339.1342.98-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0326.0927.89-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0343.4845.20-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0354.1751.980.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0359.0961.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0370.8367.980.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0350.0054.220.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0350.0051.150.000.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0358.3359.310.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0336.3636.29-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0361.9065.340.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0368.1871.340.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0345.4546.07-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0324.0024.92-0.03-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0370.8370.130.020.01
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.06-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.550.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0352.1753.440.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0327.2726.46-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0331.8235.12-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0365.2263.630.020.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0360.0055.570.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.270.030.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0333.3332.04-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.190.020.01
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.840.040.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.24-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.640.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0327.2727.81-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.88-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.070.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0324.0024.55-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0325.0026.38-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.890.010.00
OregonP120.050.0379.1777.220.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0373.6875.880.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0372.0069.130.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.120.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0370.8368.530.000.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0360.8762.520.010.01