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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:225.5
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:185
Current SOS:10
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:10-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:4



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-763.00.01%
17-880.20.04%
16-988.20.11%
15-10105.10.73%
14-11124.72.15%
13-12146.24.97%
12-13170.510.03%
11-14194.115.87%
10-15219.019.01%
9-16243.018.43%
8-17265.913.93%
7-18285.68.66%
6-19301.44.11%
5-20315.21.42%
4-21326.10.41%
3-22330.40.09%
2-23340.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas Tech (72.4)B12A93-67L0%0.0
11-14New Mexico (89.1)MWCA95-79L0%0.0
11-26Marquette (51.7)BEA101-79L0%0.0
11-30Rice (96.6)CUSAA90-77L0%0.0
12-7Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACH0-046%-1.1
12-10Indiana (20.8)B10A0-01%-26.7
12-22Northwestern (49.5)B10A0-03%-22.1
12-29Sam Houston St. (166.2)SlndA0-028%-7.0
12-31Stephen F. Austin (171.3)SlndA0-026%-7.9
1-5Southeastern Louisiana (230.6)SlndH0-059%2.7
1-7McNeese St. (324.7)SlndH0-084%11.8
1-12Central Arkansas (268.8)SlndH0-068%5.6
1-14Incarnate Word (227.9)SlndA0-038%-3.8
1-19New Orleans (252.7)SlndA0-045%-1.6
1-21Southeastern Louisiana (230.6)SlndA0-038%-3.5
1-26Nicholls St. (257.7)SlndH0-073%7.3
2-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (156.5)SlndA0-024%-8.6
2-4Incarnate Word (227.9)SlndH0-058%2.4
2-9Northwestern St. (259.4)SlndA0-044%-1.9
2-11Lamar (302.6)SlndH0-073%7.4
2-16Sam Houston St. (166.2)SlndH0-048%-0.7
2-23McNeese St. (324.7)SlndA0-068%5.5
2-25Lamar (302.6)SlndA0-054%1.2
3-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (156.5)SlndH0-042%-2.3
3-4Abilene Christian (189.3)SlndH0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd28.0426.360.0041.45-28.04-4.51
Incarnate WordSlnd1.564.9325.0041.96-0.78-0.79
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.004.9250.0057.610.000.75
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.004.9160.0062.050.001.18
LamarSlnd0.004.9142.8640.69-0.00-0.91
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.910.0017.39-0.00-3.20
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.004.8042.8650.25-0.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.783.0440.0055.03-0.160.31
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.003.0125.0054.64-0.000.28
Nicholls St.Slnd0.003.0142.8637.43-0.00-0.76
Northwestern St.Slnd0.003.0020.0041.56-0.00-0.51
New OrleansSlnd0.002.9740.0041.17-0.00-0.52
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.9112.5030.45-0.00-1.14
RiceCUSA13.282.1971.4369.525.690.86
Texas TechB1213.282.1585.7160.399.490.45
NorthwesternB100.002.1075.0065.070.000.63
IndianaB100.002.0687.5073.710.000.98
New MexicoMWC12.502.0457.1456.691.790.27
MarquetteBE12.502.0075.0063.016.250.52
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.002.0057.1450.760.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.780.2433.3331.35-0.26-0.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.2320.0022.88-0.00-0.12
UTSACUSA0.000.2225.0029.90-0.00-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.000.2171.4354.010.000.02
PurdueB100.000.2177.7877.640.000.11
TulaneAmer0.000.1812.5023.82-0.00-0.10
UTEPCUSA0.000.1820.0035.46-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.1850.0038.730.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.690.1757.1443.930.10-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.1771.4337.680.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0074.830.000.08
MichiganB100.690.1677.7865.840.390.05
WisconsinB100.000.1677.7876.550.000.09
MemphisAmer0.000.1675.0056.270.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.1550.0044.180.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1571.4363.080.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1562.5042.780.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1471.4348.030.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.1440.0058.88-0.000.03
Idaho St.BSky1.560.1412.5029.77-1.17-0.06
BaylorB120.000.14100.0076.070.000.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1457.1472.530.000.06
Utah St.MWC0.780.1442.8650.57-0.110.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1471.4360.090.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1271.4365.470.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.1187.5069.040.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1185.7153.770.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1128.5746.79-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.780.1075.0069.680.390.04
MarylandB100.000.1087.5059.030.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.1066.6751.140.000.00
KansasB120.000.1088.8977.470.000.05
NebraskaB100.000.1057.1444.830.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.1066.6746.170.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.1087.5050.250.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0820.0038.50-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0862.5052.400.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0816.6729.83-0.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0825.0045.82-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0850.0037.700.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0842.8641.13-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0862.5074.160.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0050.980.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0089.590.000.06
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6766.650.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.0750.0059.840.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0757.1436.370.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0053.130.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0783.3371.500.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0725.0023.62-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0712.5033.18-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0757.1449.420.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0725.0027.74-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0021.92-0.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0787.5064.760.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0762.5050.630.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0022.47-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0714.2943.08-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.070.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0762.5066.500.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0720.0017.37-0.00-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0737.5047.57-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.690.0775.0048.980.35-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.780.0712.5037.11-0.59-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0056.890.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0737.5044.42-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0076.540.000.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0762.5055.890.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0755.5647.600.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0757.1464.540.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0722.2232.01-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0744.4434.60-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0777.7872.210.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0777.7871.770.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0725.0035.75-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0777.7859.940.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0728.5737.54-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0757.1450.790.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0760.0069.260.000.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0733.3350.05-0.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0744.4436.20-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0084.740.000.05
WyomingMWC0.000.0766.6753.730.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0787.5070.880.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0775.0054.480.000.01
DaytonA100.780.0771.4373.270.330.03
IUPUISum0.690.0733.3351.57-0.230.00
Notre DameACC0.000.07100.0076.970.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0750.0042.770.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0644.4438.41-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0688.8956.710.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0660.0058.780.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0688.8966.920.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.35-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.0487.5082.220.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0475.0047.520.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0462.5044.840.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0462.5062.120.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.040.0022.30-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.04100.0076.400.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0442.8629.20-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0412.5031.01-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0457.1429.760.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0488.8967.470.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0462.5056.520.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0437.5031.15-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0485.7175.800.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.780.0312.5030.17-0.59-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5075.730.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.780.0342.8656.48-0.110.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.780.0337.5050.92-0.200.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.780.0350.0066.380.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.03-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0377.7870.290.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.90-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0342.8655.07-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.780.0325.0043.29-0.39-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0362.5054.660.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.99-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.640.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.690.0357.1451.810.100.00
HowardMEAC0.690.0316.6743.53-0.46-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.780.0360.0067.820.160.01
LafayettePat0.000.0342.8635.40-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0311.1132.47-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0040.690.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0312.5026.05-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3340.37-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.690.0355.5646.770.08-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.780.0385.7162.500.560.01
Western CarolinaSC0.690.0328.5723.02-0.30-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0355.5637.870.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.120.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.780.0385.7157.280.560.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2246.51-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0375.0074.590.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.780.0350.0050.980.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.680.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0362.5070.890.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0320.0035.15-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0377.7855.180.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01