Houston Baptist

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	310.0
Current RPI:	310
Expected SOS:	343
Current SOS:	343
Current Record:	11-17
Expected Record:	11-17
Current Conf Record:	5-6
Expected Conf Record:	5-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-12
Current OOC Record:	6-11
Expected OOC Record:	6-11
Expected OOC RPI:	294
Expected OOC SOS:	332

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-17	310.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	N	72-68	W	100%
11-11	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	N	55-70	W	100%
11-12	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	73-60	L	0%
11-20	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	53-57	L	0%
11-24	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	A	64-44	L	0%
12-1	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	61-53	L	0%
12-8	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	57-69	L	0%
12-13	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	81-47	L	0%
12-22	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	91-50	L	0%
12-28	Louisiana St. (86.0)	SEC	A	75-58	L	0%
12-31	Army (205.0)	Pat	H	86-95	L	0%
1-3	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	67-59	L	0%
1-8	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	60-70	L	0%
1-12	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	A	83-62	L	0%
1-14	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	72-44	L	0%
1-19	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	A	81-56	L	0%
1-22	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	61-63	W	100%
2-2	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	H	66-57	W	100%
2-6	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	66-45	W	100%
2-9	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	A	68-75	W	100%
2-16	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	48-53	W	100%
2-23	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	73-63	W	100%
2-25	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	H	65-52	W	100%
3-2	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	69-58	L	0%
3-9	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	58-71	L	0%
3-14	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	N	76-74	W	100%
3-15	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	N	61-62	W	100%
3-16	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	A	75-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Houston Baptist	GWC	26.68	26.68	42.74	42.74	-3.87	-3.87
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	6.06	6.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	6.01	6.01	16.00	16.00	-4.09	-4.09
Utah Valley	GWC	5.98	5.98	36.00	36.00	-1.67	-1.67
Texas Pan American	GWC	4.51	4.51	42.31	42.31	-0.69	-0.69
New Orleans	ind	3.94	3.94	20.00	20.00	-2.37	-2.37
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	3.67	3.67	24.14	24.14	-1.90	-1.90
Rice	CUSA	2.02	2.02	10.71	10.71	-1.59	-1.59
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.95	1.95	33.33	33.33	-0.65	-0.65
Army	Pat	1.92	1.92	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Arlington	WAC	1.91	1.91	58.06	58.06	0.31	0.31
Pepperdine	WCC	1.91	1.91	35.71	35.71	-0.55	-0.55
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.90	1.90	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.90	1.90	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
Hawaii	BW	1.88	1.88	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	1.87	1.87	53.12	53.12	0.12	0.12
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.85	1.85	7.41	7.41	-1.57	-1.57
Oregon	P12	1.84	1.84	75.76	75.76	0.95	0.95
Louisiana St.	SEC	1.84	1.84	60.00	60.00	0.37	0.37
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.79	1.79	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.37	0.37	34.48	34.48	-0.11	-0.11
Houston	CUSA	0.36	0.36	60.00	60.00	0.07	0.07
Tulane	CUSA	0.31	0.31	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.31	0.31	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.28	0.28	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.27	0.27	70.97	70.97	0.11	0.11
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.25	0.25	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
Washington St.	P12	0.24	0.24	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.23	0.23	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.22	0.22	67.86	67.86	0.08	0.08
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.22	0.22	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Troy	SB	0.22	0.22	36.36	36.36	-0.06	-0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.22	0.22	28.00	28.00	-0.10	-0.10
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.21	0.21	14.29	14.29	-0.15	-0.15
Oregon St.	P12	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.21	0.21	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Colgate	Pat	0.17	0.17	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.17	0.17	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Ohio St.	B10	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Western Illinois	Sum	0.14	0.14	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	70.37	70.37	0.06	0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.12	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Texas St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
New Hampshire	AE	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	A10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00