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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Houston Baptist

Conference:GWC
Expected RPI:310.0
Current RPI:310
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:343
Current Record:11-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:5-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-12
Current OOC Record:6-11
Expected OOC Record:6-11
Expected OOC RPI:294
Expected OOC SOS:332



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17310.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)SWACN72-68W100%0.0
11-11Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACN55-70W100%0.0
11-12Hawaii (210.0)BWA73-60L0%0.0
11-20Pepperdine (212.0)WCCH53-57L0%0.0
11-24Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCA64-44L0%0.0
12-1Rice (324.0)CUSAA61-53L0%0.0
12-8Sam Houston St. (224.0)SlndH57-69L0%0.0
12-13Texas Arlington (119.0)WACA81-47L0%0.0
12-22Oregon (48.0)P12A91-50L0%0.0
12-28Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA75-58L0%0.0
12-31Army (205.0)PatH86-95L0%0.0
1-3Texas A&M (102.0)SECA67-59L0%0.0
1-8Texas Pan American (306.0)GWCH60-70L0%0.0
1-12Utah Valley (297.0)GWCA83-62L0%0.0
1-14Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAA72-44L0%0.0
1-19Chicago St. (320.0)GWCA81-56L0%0.0
1-22Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumA61-63W100%0.0
2-2NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)GWCH66-57W100%0.0
2-6Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumH66-45W100%0.0
2-9New Orleans (346.0)indA68-75W100%0.0
2-16Texas Pan American (306.0)GWCA48-53W100%0.0
2-23Utah Valley (297.0)GWCH73-63W100%0.0
2-25New Orleans (346.0)indH65-52W100%0.0
3-2NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)GWCA69-58L0%0.0
3-9Chicago St. (320.0)GWCH58-71L0%0.0
3-14Utah Valley (297.0)GWCN76-74W100%0.0
3-15NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)GWCN61-62W100%0.0
3-16Chicago St. (320.0)GWCA75-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistGWC26.6826.6842.7442.74-3.87-3.87
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC6.066.0650.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.GWC6.016.0116.0016.00-4.09-4.09
Utah ValleyGWC5.985.9836.0036.00-1.67-1.67
Texas Pan AmericanGWC4.514.5142.3142.31-0.69-0.69
New Orleansind3.943.9420.0020.00-2.37-2.37
Missouri Kansas CitySum3.673.6724.1424.14-1.90-1.90
RiceCUSA2.022.0210.7110.71-1.59-1.59
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.951.9533.3333.33-0.65-0.65
ArmyPat1.921.9248.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Texas ArlingtonWAC1.911.9158.0658.060.310.31
PepperdineWCC1.911.9135.7135.71-0.55-0.55
Texas El PasoCUSA1.901.9054.8454.840.180.18
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.901.9055.1755.170.200.20
HawaiiBW1.881.8851.7251.720.060.06
Texas A&MSEC1.871.8753.1253.120.120.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.851.857.417.41-1.57-1.57
OregonP121.841.8475.7675.760.950.95
Louisiana St.SEC1.841.8460.0060.000.370.37
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.791.7943.3343.33-0.24-0.24
Nebraska OmahaSum0.370.3734.4834.48-0.11-0.11
HoustonCUSA0.360.3660.0060.000.070.07
TulaneCUSA0.310.3156.2556.250.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.310.3148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.280.2838.4638.46-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.270.2770.9770.970.110.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.250.2529.0329.03-0.10-0.10
Washington St.P120.240.2440.6240.62-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.230.2352.9452.940.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.220.2267.8667.860.080.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
TroySB0.220.2236.3636.36-0.06-0.06
San Jose St.WAC0.220.2228.5728.57-0.09-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.2228.0028.00-0.10-0.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.2114.2914.29-0.15-0.15
Oregon St.P120.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.210.2113.3313.33-0.15-0.15
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Seton HallBE0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Utah St.WAC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
ColgatePat0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Ohio St.B100.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1471.4371.430.060.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1470.3770.370.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
LamarSlnd0.120.129.689.68-0.10-0.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
AmericanPat0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Texas St.WAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Southern MethodistCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
MississippiSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
PennsylvaniaIvy0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
DePaulBE0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0885.1985.190.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
IdahoWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Louisiana TechWAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
OklahomaB120.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
DuquesneA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.7593.750.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PacificBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0653.8553.850.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
UABCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
St. LouisA100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
DenverWAC0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South FloridaBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
North TexasSB0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00