Houston Baptist

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	324.0
Current RPI:	324
Expected SOS:	301
Current SOS:	301
Current Record:	7-20
Expected Record:	7-20
Current Conf Record:	3-8
Expected Conf Record:	3-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-13
Current OOC Record:	4-12
Expected OOC Record:	4-12
Expected OOC RPI:	276
Expected OOC SOS:	165

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-20	324.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Campbell (206.0)	BSth	A	82-68	L	0%
11-14	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	H	76-74	W	100%
11-18	Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)	SB	A	73-64	L	0%
11-19	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	N	70-80	L	0%
11-20	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	N	83-88	W	100%
11-25	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	88-65	L	0%
11-30	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	H	66-78	L	0%
12-3	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	A	103-76	L	0%
12-14	Campbell (206.0)	BSth	H	87-76	W	100%
12-17	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	97-62	L	0%
12-21	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	H	72-71	W	100%
12-31	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	A	118-72	L	0%
1-3	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	A	98-61	L	0%
1-7	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	H	62-74	L	0%
1-19	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	A	85-62	L	0%
1-21	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	A	98-95	L	0%
1-24	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	H	74-79	L	0%
1-28	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	A	81-71	L	0%
2-2	North Dakota (242.0)	GWC	H	69-62	W	100%
2-4	Utah Valley (230.0)	GWC	H	66-68	L	0%
2-8	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	A	84-76	L	0%
2-16	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	H	56-65	L	0%
2-18	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	H	75-68	W	100%
2-23	Utah Valley (230.0)	GWC	A	75-56	L	0%
2-25	North Dakota (242.0)	GWC	A	66-62	L	0%
3-3	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	H	65-58	W	100%
3-8	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	N	65-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Houston Baptist	GWC	26.44	26.44	21.50	21.50	-15.07	-15.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	6.22	6.22	36.00	36.00	-1.74	-1.74
North Dakota	GWC	4.49	4.49	48.00	48.00	-0.18	-0.18
Texas Pan American	GWC	4.47	4.47	23.08	23.08	-2.41	-2.41
Utah Valley	GWC	4.40	4.40	53.85	53.85	0.34	0.34
Chicago St.	GWC	4.39	4.39	3.85	3.85	-4.05	-4.05
Campbell	BSth	3.80	3.80	51.72	51.72	0.13	0.13
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	3.70	3.70	48.39	48.39	-0.12	-0.12
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.12	2.12	73.33	73.33	0.99	0.99
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.01	2.01	25.93	25.93	-0.97	-0.97
Texas St.	Slnd	2.01	2.01	32.00	32.00	-0.72	-0.72
Creighton	MVC	1.98	1.98	84.38	84.38	1.36	1.36
New Mexico	MWC	1.95	1.95	80.65	80.65	1.20	1.20
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.95	1.95	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.92	1.92	70.37	70.37	0.78	0.78
Duquesne	A10	1.88	1.88	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	1.88	1.88	22.22	22.22	-1.04	-1.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.85	1.85	34.62	34.62	-0.57	-0.57
Rice	CUSA	1.85	1.85	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
Washington	P12	1.85	1.85	66.67	66.67	0.62	0.62
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.40	0.40	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.27	0.27	22.22	22.22	-0.15	-0.15
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.27	0.27	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
Lamar	Slnd	0.26	0.26	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.25	0.25	20.00	20.00	-0.15	-0.15
Air Force	MWC	0.22	0.22	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.21	0.21	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.20	0.20	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.19	0.19	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.19	0.19	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
Winthrop	BSth	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.18	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.17	0.17	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	10.34	10.34	-0.13	-0.13
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.17	0.17	32.00	32.00	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.17	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Tulane	CUSA	0.16	0.16	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	83.87	83.87	0.11	0.11
Iowa	B10	0.15	0.15	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Maine	AE	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.13	0.13	79.31	79.31	0.08	0.08
DePaul	BE	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	34.62	34.62	-0.04	-0.04
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.13	0.13	19.23	19.23	-0.08	-0.08
Portland	WCC	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.13	0.13	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	21.88	21.88	-0.07	-0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.12	83.33	83.33	0.08	0.08
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
High Point	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Southern California	P12	0.09	0.09	18.75	18.75	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	96.43	96.43	0.06	0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	6.90	6.90	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.07	0.07	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.04	0.04	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	78.57	78.57	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01