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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:175.0
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:217
Current SOS:217
Current Record:13-13
Expected Record:13-13
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC RPI:228
Expected OOC SOS:19



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-13175.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas Tech (124.0)B12A93-67L0%0.0
11-14New Mexico (86.0)MWCA95-79L0%0.0
11-26Marquette (60.0)BEA101-79L0%0.0
11-30Rice (167.0)CUSAA90-77L0%0.0
12-7Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH62-47W100%0.0
12-10Indiana (79.0)B10A103-61L0%0.0
12-22Northwestern (50.0)B10A72-63L0%0.0
12-29Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndA65-79W100%0.0
12-31Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA61-51L0%0.0
1-5Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH81-74W100%0.0
1-7McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH60-49W100%0.0
1-12Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH78-89L0%0.0
1-14Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA82-77L0%0.0
1-19New Orleans (154.0)SlndA72-64L0%0.0
1-21Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA83-71L0%0.0
1-26Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH83-80W100%0.0
2-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndA90-79L0%0.0
2-4Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH84-70W100%0.0
2-9Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndA69-86W100%0.0
2-11Lamar (232.0)SlndH94-87W100%0.0
2-16Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH88-77W100%0.0
2-23McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA79-81W100%0.0
2-25Lamar (232.0)SlndA68-75W100%0.0
3-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH94-80W100%0.0
3-4Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH81-72W100%0.0
3-9Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndN59-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd26.4126.4155.0055.002.642.64
Sam Houston St.Slnd6.686.6859.2659.261.241.24
LamarSlnd4.854.8555.5655.560.540.54
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.794.7961.5461.541.111.11
Incarnate WordSlnd4.764.7630.4330.43-1.86-1.86
McNeese St.Slnd4.734.7320.8320.83-2.76-2.76
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.684.6846.4346.43-0.33-0.33
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.063.0650.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd3.013.0159.2659.260.560.56
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.942.9437.5037.50-0.74-0.74
Central ArkansasSlnd2.892.8922.5822.58-1.58-1.58
Nicholls St.Slnd2.882.8838.4638.46-0.67-0.67
Northwestern St.Slnd2.882.8837.5037.50-0.72-0.72
RiceCUSA2.102.1063.3363.330.560.56
Texas TechB122.072.0754.8454.840.200.20
NorthwesternB102.022.0266.6766.670.670.67
IndianaB101.981.9853.1253.120.120.12
New MexicoMWC1.961.9653.3353.330.130.13
MarquetteBE1.921.9260.0060.000.380.38
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.921.9261.2961.290.430.43
North TexasCUSA0.250.2521.4321.43-0.14-0.14
WisconsinB100.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.2024.1424.14-0.11-0.11
UTSACUSA0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
PurdueB100.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
TulaneAmer0.170.1719.3519.35-0.11-0.11
SouthernSWAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
BaylorB120.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
MemphisAmer0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
ButlerBE0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
MichiganB100.150.1568.5768.570.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Texas St.SB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
UNLVMWC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Utah St.MWC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
RutgersB100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
KansasB120.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0428.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
SamfordSC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.020.02
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01