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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:263.6
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:303
Current SOS:255
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:10-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-8119.00.02%
15-9139.10.29%
14-10161.41.17%
13-11183.93.64%
12-12207.78.96%
11-13232.416.04%
10-14256.419.91%
9-15278.920.74%
8-16297.815.43%
7-17312.78.63%
6-18323.23.90%
5-19331.01.04%
4-20338.20.19%
3-21344.00.02%
2-22345.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern (163.9)B10A65-58L0%0.0
11-22UT Arlington (142.0)SBA87-69L0%0.0
12-3Rice (284.0)CUSAA55-58W100%0.0
12-7San Francisco (123.6)WCCA85-54L0%0.0
12-16Houston (204.7)AmerA83-76L0%0.0
12-20UC Riverside (250.7)BWA0-028%-7.0
1-3Northwestern St. (265.8)SlndH0-063%3.9
1-5McNeese St. (234.6)SlndA0-029%-6.6
1-10Southeastern Louisiana (239.2)SlndA0-028%-7.0
1-13Nicholls St. (334.1)SlndA0-063%4.0
1-17New Orleans (279.9)SlndH0-066%4.9
1-19Central Arkansas (339.1)SlndH0-084%11.7
1-24Lamar (270.8)SlndH0-069%5.7
1-31Sam Houston St. (104.2)SlndA0-07%-17.5
2-2Abilene Christian (336.9)SlndH0-088%13.8
2-7Stephen F. Austin (75.0)SlndA0-06%-18.6
2-9Texas A&M Corpus Chris (322.2)SlndH0-079%9.4
2-14Sam Houston St. (104.2)SlndH0-023%-8.7
2-16Lamar (270.8)SlndA0-040%-3.0
2-23Incarnate Word (116.4)SlndA0-011%-14.4
2-28Stephen F. Austin (75.0)SlndH0-020%-9.9
3-3Abilene Christian (336.9)SlndA0-067%5.0
3-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (322.2)SlndA0-052%0.7
3-7Incarnate Word (116.4)SlndH0-031%-5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd28.1026.4036.8443.90-7.40-3.22
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.715.2216.6719.44-0.48-3.19
LamarSlnd0.005.1914.2933.16-0.00-1.75
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.005.1666.6776.970.002.78
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.005.1625.0028.24-0.00-2.25
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.005.1450.0073.110.002.38
Incarnate WordSlnd0.005.1475.0073.940.002.46
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.003.0411.1143.06-0.00-0.42
Central ArkansasSlnd0.003.040.0017.57-0.00-1.97
Nicholls St.Slnd0.003.030.0018.20-0.00-1.93
McNeese St.Slnd0.003.0325.0048.17-0.00-0.11
Northwestern St.Slnd0.003.020.0037.77-0.00-0.74
New OrleansSlnd0.003.020.0038.66-0.00-0.68
RiceCUSA10.002.2020.0027.29-6.00-1.00
HoustonAmer10.002.2066.6747.033.33-0.13
UC RiversideBW0.002.1642.8642.01-0.00-0.35
NorthwesternB1010.002.0855.5638.641.11-0.47
San FranciscoWCC10.002.0844.4452.20-1.110.09
UT ArlingtonSB10.002.0850.0053.340.000.14
Grand CanyonWAC0.560.2436.3644.53-0.15-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.2460.0056.800.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.2350.0050.330.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2220.0028.20-0.00-0.10
UTEPCUSA0.000.2066.6772.670.000.09
North TexasCUSA0.000.1942.8636.79-0.00-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.710.1937.5041.20-0.18-0.03
DenverSum0.000.1950.0054.230.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.830.190.0039.41-0.83-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1933.3345.50-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1677.7865.390.000.05
IndianaB100.000.1680.0057.630.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1666.6743.780.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1642.8652.71-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.1570.0071.330.000.06
UTSACUSA0.000.1542.8637.65-0.00-0.04
TroySB0.000.1533.3339.46-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.500.1520.0029.81-0.30-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1536.3638.88-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1540.0050.07-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.1555.5659.990.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.500.1410.0018.01-0.40-0.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1272.7367.750.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.1280.0064.110.000.03
BaylorB120.000.1290.0073.870.000.06
San DiegoWCC0.000.1254.5557.300.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1142.8642.32-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1133.3345.28-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1175.0068.680.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.500.1166.6777.030.170.06
BradleyMVC0.560.1133.3332.09-0.19-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.500.1142.8638.75-0.07-0.02
HawaiiBW0.500.1166.6754.830.170.01
UC IrvineBW0.560.1137.5046.78-0.14-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1125.0023.43-0.00-0.06
MichiganB100.000.1155.5642.550.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1190.9188.390.000.08
Northern IowaMVC0.500.1190.0078.050.400.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1142.8638.26-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.1190.0090.940.000.09
South FloridaAmer0.000.1144.4444.78-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1187.5054.790.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.1155.5634.940.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0927.2737.85-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0922.2241.92-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.09100.0066.180.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0888.8963.800.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0811.1144.62-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0872.7357.280.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0860.0064.610.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0828.5731.23-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0844.4439.74-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0871.4359.920.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0888.8981.310.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.0827.2738.97-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0875.0050.750.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0877.7876.240.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.0877.7867.290.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.500.0885.7170.350.360.03
TexasB120.560.0790.0081.860.440.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0722.2230.99-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0766.6759.460.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0750.0055.810.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0760.0033.870.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0785.7161.020.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0737.5064.43-0.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0780.0070.960.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.710.0718.1835.99-0.45-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.500.0750.0041.830.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0737.5034.19-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6767.300.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0777.7869.190.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0737.5038.60-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0766.6762.620.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0762.5071.290.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0775.0058.430.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0766.6748.410.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0771.4357.100.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0750.0040.880.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0036.67-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0038.180.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0744.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0049.620.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0772.7365.930.000.02
IowaB100.000.0772.7362.590.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0772.7373.150.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0460.0049.500.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0477.7871.960.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0450.0039.340.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0488.8955.910.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0460.0059.420.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0450.0038.000.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0444.4451.04-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0450.0052.710.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0425.0038.92-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.830.0437.5042.45-0.21-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0444.4445.64-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.830.0477.7855.460.460.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0442.8627.08-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0430.0037.28-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.830.0440.0028.86-0.17-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0455.5649.500.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.830.0457.1456.750.120.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0410.0030.45-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0450.0032.620.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0470.0072.830.000.02
UtahP120.000.0477.7879.480.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.710.0420.0038.24-0.43-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.560.0475.0069.120.280.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0442.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0433.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0457.1470.590.000.01
ColoradoP120.500.0466.6758.240.170.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0450.0057.510.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0472.7351.560.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.500.0477.7871.110.280.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.500.0475.0071.730.250.02
HarvardIvy0.710.0485.7172.940.510.02
KentuckySEC0.560.04100.0094.790.560.03
MontanaBSky0.500.0425.0052.09-0.250.00
Montana St.BSky0.560.0422.2228.69-0.31-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0418.1846.16-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.710.0455.5661.790.080.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0444.4455.75-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0470.0058.600.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0463.6455.600.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.560.0428.5742.17-0.24-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0388.8963.660.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0337.5031.95-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.500.0340.0033.79-0.10-0.01
ButlerBE0.500.0380.0072.550.300.02
ElonCAA0.500.0337.5047.87-0.13-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.500.0377.7851.350.280.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.30-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.500.0330.0028.50-0.20-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
North FloridaASun0.500.0344.4456.91-0.060.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.680.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9153.850.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.730.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.980.000.00