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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:285.0
Current RPI:285
Expected SOS:268
Current SOS:268
Current Record:8-16
Expected Record:8-16
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-16285.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern (125.0)B10A65-58L0%0.0
11-22UT Arlington (184.0)SBA87-69L0%0.0
12-3Rice (247.0)CUSAA55-58W100%0.0
12-7San Francisco (181.0)WCCA85-54L0%0.0
12-16Houston (239.0)AmerA83-76L0%0.0
12-20UC Riverside (234.0)BWA78-67L0%0.0
1-3Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH78-99L0%0.0
1-5McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA56-68W100%0.0
1-10Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA87-67L0%0.0
1-13Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndA61-57L0%0.0
1-17New Orleans (326.0)SlndH74-73W100%0.0
1-19Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH84-61W100%0.0
1-24Lamar (230.0)SlndH79-77W100%0.0
1-31Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndA63-52L0%0.0
2-2Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH77-61W100%0.0
2-7Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA95-59L0%0.0
2-9Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH77-66W100%0.0
2-14Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH64-87L0%0.0
2-16Lamar (230.0)SlndA72-64L0%0.0
2-23Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndA77-64L0%0.0
2-28Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH87-102L0%0.0
3-3Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndA83-71L0%0.0
3-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA85-72L0%0.0
3-7Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH78-77W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd26.3426.3434.7834.78-8.02-8.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.245.2470.3770.372.142.14
Stephen F. AustinSlnd5.235.2385.7185.713.743.74
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd5.235.2357.1457.140.750.75
Abilene ChristianSlnd5.185.1823.0823.08-2.79-2.79
LamarSlnd5.145.1441.6741.67-0.86-0.86
Incarnate WordSlnd5.095.0959.0959.090.930.93
Northwestern St.Slnd3.093.0953.8553.850.240.24
New OrleansSlnd3.093.0932.0032.00-1.11-1.11
McNeese St.Slnd3.063.0642.3142.31-0.47-0.47
Nicholls St.Slnd3.043.0424.0024.00-1.58-1.58
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.033.0323.3323.33-1.62-1.62
Central ArkansasSlnd2.992.997.147.14-2.56-2.56
RiceCUSA2.202.2035.7135.71-0.63-0.63
HoustonAmer2.192.1938.7138.71-0.50-0.50
UC RiversideBW2.162.1639.2939.29-0.46-0.46
NorthwesternB102.082.0845.1645.16-0.20-0.20
San FranciscoWCC2.082.0840.0040.00-0.42-0.42
UT ArlingtonSB2.082.0848.2848.28-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.260.2670.9770.970.110.11
Texas St.SB0.250.2539.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2122.5822.58-0.12-0.12
UTEPCUSA0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1935.7135.71-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
DenverSum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
TroySB0.150.1529.6329.63-0.06-0.06
SMUAmer0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
UC IrvineBW0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1318.7518.75-0.08-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.130.1393.9493.940.120.12
TulaneAmer0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
BaylorB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
HawaiiBW0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
BradleyMVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
PacificWCC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Texas TechB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0459.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0468.9768.970.010.01
CreightonBE0.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0430.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0452.9452.940.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
UtahP120.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Washington St.P120.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01