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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:224.0
Current RPI:224
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:245
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:284
Expected OOC SOS:159



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16224.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA91-69L0%0.0
11-19TCU (174.0)B12A90-63L0%0.0
11-21Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA72-56L0%0.0
11-24South Dakota St. (29.0)SumN68-92L0%0.0
11-25Rider (242.0)MAACN56-67L0%0.0
12-2Rice (279.0)CUSAH77-73W100%0.0
12-5Michigan (56.0)B10A82-57L0%0.0
12-15UC Riverside (267.0)BWH72-59W100%0.0
12-19Arizona St. (99.0)P12A98-79L0%0.0
1-2Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA73-99W100%0.0
1-5McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH82-73W100%0.0
1-9Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH77-58W100%0.0
1-13Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH78-69W100%0.0
1-16New Orleans (343.0)SlndA69-73W100%0.0
1-19Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA61-72W100%0.0
1-23Lamar (337.0)SlndA79-92W100%0.0
1-30Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH70-69W100%0.0
2-2Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA79-72L0%0.0
2-6Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH66-72L0%0.0
2-8Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA83-76L0%0.0
2-13Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA80-68L0%0.0
2-15Lamar (337.0)SlndH79-78W100%0.0
2-18Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH73-71W100%0.0
2-22Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH91-97L0%0.0
2-27Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndA82-54L0%0.0
3-3Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH71-81L0%0.0
3-5Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndA97-86L0%0.0
3-10Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndN73-68W100%0.0
3-11Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndN104-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd26.4326.4346.3446.34-1.93-1.93
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.086.0880.0080.003.653.65
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.484.4875.0075.002.242.24
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.414.4151.8551.850.160.16
LamarSlnd4.384.3829.1729.17-1.82-1.82
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.374.3732.0032.00-1.57-1.57
Incarnate WordSlnd4.344.3452.1752.170.190.19
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.304.3034.4834.48-1.33-1.33
Nicholls St.Slnd2.672.6726.6726.67-1.25-1.25
New OrleansSlnd2.612.6126.9226.92-1.21-1.21
McNeese St.Slnd2.592.5928.0028.00-1.14-1.14
Northwestern St.Slnd2.582.5821.7421.74-1.46-1.46
Central ArkansasSlnd2.562.5625.9325.93-1.23-1.23
TCUB121.901.9034.3834.38-0.59-0.59
RiceCUSA1.891.8934.4834.48-0.59-0.59
UC RiversideBW1.881.8840.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Arizona St.P121.821.8245.1645.16-0.18-0.18
Illinois St.MVC1.781.7853.3353.330.120.12
South Dakota St.Sum1.781.7876.6776.670.950.95
MichiganB101.721.7262.5062.500.430.43
New Mexico St.WAC1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
RiderMAAC1.721.7237.5037.50-0.43-0.43
CaliforniaP120.210.2169.7069.700.080.08
BaylorB120.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
OklahomaB120.190.1978.1278.120.100.10
Texas TechB120.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
UABCUSA0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
PurdueB100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
NebraskaB100.150.1547.0647.06-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
SMUAmer0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1472.4172.410.060.06
TexasB120.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
TulaneAmer0.120.1235.2935.29-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1218.5218.52-0.08-0.08
DrakeMVC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
UTSACUSA0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DenverSum0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
UCLAP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Oregon St.P120.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01