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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:341.0
Current RPI:341
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:296
Current Record:4-23
Expected Record:4-23
Current Conf Record:2-14
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-11
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:283
Expected OOC SOS:177



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-23341.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Texas Tech (121.0)B12A76-61L0%0.0
11-18Texas (36.0)B12A89-61L0%0.0
11-22Wright St. (173.0)HorzN59-75L0%0.0
11-23Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAN67-62L0%0.0
11-24South Alabama (280.0)SBA79-59L0%0.0
11-30Army (235.0)PatA72-74W100%0.0
12-4Rice (299.0)CUSAH73-71W100%0.0
12-7Michigan (11.0)B10A107-53L0%0.0
12-14UT Arlington (199.0)SBH70-80L0%0.0
12-18DePaul (154.0)BEA78-58L0%0.0
12-21Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA76-64L0%0.0
1-2Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA88-55L0%0.0
1-4Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA86-69L0%0.0
1-9Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH50-77L0%0.0
1-11Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH98-97W100%0.0
1-16Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndA66-64L0%0.0
1-18McNeese St. (272.0)SlndA70-68L0%0.0
1-23New Orleans (260.0)SlndH66-79L0%0.0
1-25Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH52-60L0%0.0
1-30Lamar (344.0)SlndA59-57L0%0.0
2-1Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA81-63L0%0.0
2-13Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH66-80L0%0.0
2-15Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH99-83W100%0.0
2-22Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH61-66L0%0.0
3-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA65-45L0%0.0
3-6Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH62-75L0%0.0
3-8McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH77-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd26.2326.2313.2213.22-19.29-19.29
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.534.5350.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd4.504.5040.7440.74-0.83-0.83
Nicholls St.Slnd4.474.4741.6741.67-0.74-0.74
McNeese St.Slnd4.474.4720.0020.00-2.68-2.68
Central ArkansasSlnd4.414.4121.7421.74-2.49-2.49
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.722.7228.0028.00-1.20-1.20
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.712.7167.8667.860.970.97
Northwestern St.Slnd2.712.7150.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.702.7092.8692.862.322.32
New OrleansSlnd2.602.6033.3333.33-0.87-0.87
LamarSlnd2.552.557.417.41-2.17-2.17
TexasB122.072.0768.7568.750.780.78
RiceCUSA2.042.0418.5218.52-1.29-1.29
South AlabamaSB2.032.0325.9325.93-0.98-0.98
Texas TechB121.981.9841.9441.94-0.32-0.32
Southern MissCUSA1.951.9580.0080.001.171.17
UT ArlingtonSB1.951.9541.3841.38-0.34-0.34
DePaulBE1.941.9434.3834.38-0.61-0.61
Wright St.Horz1.911.9154.8454.840.190.19
ArmyPat1.851.8548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
MichiganB101.851.8575.0075.000.930.93
PepperdineWCC1.851.8544.8344.83-0.19-0.19
North TexasCUSA0.310.3144.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.300.3078.7978.790.170.17
TroySB0.270.2731.0331.03-0.10-0.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.260.2664.5264.520.080.08
Kansas St.B120.250.2562.5062.500.060.06
Texas St.SB0.250.2520.6920.69-0.15-0.15
BaylorB120.240.2466.6766.670.080.08
Arkansas St.SB0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
UTSACUSA0.230.2322.2222.22-0.13-0.13
Georgia St.SB0.230.2374.1974.190.110.11
Michigan St.B100.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
OklahomaB120.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
LSUSEC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
Iowa St.B120.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.1934.6234.62-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
MinnesotaB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
West VirginiaB120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
HoustonAmer0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
WisconsinB100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
TCUB120.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
BucknellPat0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
ButlerBE0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
ColgatePat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0462.0762.070.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00