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Through games of Jan 29, 2015.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:283.7
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:274
Current SOS:351
Current Record:5-8
Expected Record:8-16
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-10161.50.02%
13-11177.50.08%
12-12200.00.44%
11-13222.52.82%
10-14243.910.10%
9-15266.822.12%
8-16288.229.75%
7-17304.523.81%
6-18316.39.18%
5-19325.01.67%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern (153.6)B10A65-58L0%0.0
11-22UT Arlington (139.3)SBA87-69L0%0.0
12-3Rice (280.4)CUSAA55-58W100%0.0
12-7San Francisco (186.7)WCCA85-54L0%0.0
12-16Houston (259.4)AmerA83-76L0%0.0
12-20UC Riverside (261.8)BWA78-67L0%0.0
1-3Northwestern St. (216.3)SlndH78-99L0%0.0
1-5McNeese St. (281.9)SlndA56-68W100%0.0
1-10Southeastern Louisiana (267.9)SlndA87-67L0%0.0
1-13Nicholls St. (337.8)SlndA61-57L0%0.0
1-17New Orleans (295.9)SlndH74-73W100%0.0
1-19Central Arkansas (349.5)SlndH84-61W100%0.0
1-24Lamar (248.5)SlndH79-77W100%0.0
1-31Sam Houston St. (97.5)SlndA0-05%-18.0
2-2Abilene Christian (297.2)SlndH0-071%6.0
2-7Stephen F. Austin (50.7)SlndA0-02%-22.3
2-9Texas A&M Corpus Chris (247.6)SlndH0-054%1.0
2-14Sam Houston St. (97.5)SlndH0-015%-11.2
2-16Lamar (248.5)SlndA0-031%-5.4
2-23Incarnate Word (134.3)SlndA0-012%-12.8
2-28Stephen F. Austin (50.7)SlndH0-08%-15.4
3-3Abilene Christian (297.2)SlndA0-047%-0.9
3-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (247.6)SlndA0-030%-5.8
3-7Incarnate Word (134.3)SlndH0-029%-5.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd26.5026.3945.1036.49-2.60-7.13
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.715.2235.2931.90-0.21-1.89
LamarSlnd4.595.1940.0037.80-0.92-1.27
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.625.1682.3584.110.403.52
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.885.1552.9446.140.05-0.40
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.665.1470.5974.510.272.52
Incarnate WordSlnd0.525.1358.3363.900.091.43
Central ArkansasSlnd4.253.030.003.53-4.25-2.82
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.973.0317.6538.54-2.57-0.70
Nicholls St.Slnd4.203.037.6913.75-3.56-2.20
McNeese St.Slnd3.973.0323.0841.42-2.14-0.52
Northwestern St.Slnd4.243.0235.7146.08-1.21-0.24
New OrleansSlnd4.073.0225.0037.47-2.04-0.76
RiceCUSA4.062.2026.6728.99-1.90-0.92
HoustonAmer3.972.2036.8434.90-1.04-0.66
UC RiversideBW3.852.1635.2934.27-1.13-0.68
NorthwesternB103.852.0847.3741.53-0.20-0.35
San FranciscoWCC3.852.0835.0039.68-1.15-0.43
UT ArlingtonSB3.852.0855.5656.400.430.27
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.2350.0052.530.000.01
TulsaAmer0.100.2378.9573.610.060.11
Texas St.SB0.220.2343.7546.21-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2223.8126.37-0.00-0.11
UTEPCUSA0.230.2065.0068.720.070.07
North TexasCUSA0.260.1935.2933.08-0.08-0.07
DenverSum0.150.1942.8646.32-0.02-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.220.1927.7828.20-0.10-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1921.0533.18-0.07-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.330.1942.1140.50-0.05-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.280.1673.6865.270.130.05
IndianaB100.270.1671.4366.610.110.05
NebraskaB100.110.1660.0049.440.02-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.270.1644.4451.68-0.030.01
UTSACUSA0.120.1547.0645.70-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.220.1580.0077.800.130.08
TroySB0.350.1529.4129.75-0.14-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1531.5831.14-0.04-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1545.0052.61-0.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.190.1528.5732.25-0.08-0.05
MemphisAmer0.190.1465.0061.640.060.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.190.1410.0015.23-0.15-0.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.390.1275.0073.840.190.06
LSUSEC0.140.1280.0070.860.080.05
BaylorB120.140.1273.6869.380.070.04
San DiegoWCC0.240.1247.6246.47-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.330.1152.9453.170.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.1170.5973.350.040.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1166.6762.680.040.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1128.5727.77-0.04-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.200.1147.0649.32-0.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.200.1165.0059.020.060.02
UC IrvineBW0.210.1155.5658.500.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1128.5736.68-0.04-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1168.4269.400.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.200.1123.8125.03-0.10-0.05
MichiganB100.230.1160.0052.300.050.01
WisconsinB100.230.1190.0087.270.190.08
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1190.4885.040.080.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.210.1136.8438.06-0.05-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.200.1195.2494.640.180.10
South FloridaAmer0.110.1030.0031.92-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.200.1060.0052.500.040.01
UCFAmer0.200.1042.1139.30-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0943.7542.86-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0930.0036.10-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.290.0970.0059.730.110.02
Iowa St.B120.120.0878.9569.330.070.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.0845.0057.10-0.010.01
UCLAP120.240.0857.1455.730.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.120.0845.0052.67-0.010.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0830.0029.63-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0880.0079.850.070.05
South DakotaSum0.000.0842.8644.87-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0855.0055.270.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0875.0074.940.000.04
OklahomaB120.240.0865.0066.310.070.02
Texas TechB120.220.0852.3840.090.01-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.230.0873.3372.480.110.03
TexasB120.220.0770.0067.320.090.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0726.3226.56-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0727.7826.36-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0770.0065.410.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0757.8958.420.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0763.1663.970.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0742.1136.43-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.110.0776.4768.630.060.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0744.4452.08-0.010.00
XavierBE0.000.0766.6765.800.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.200.0747.0644.93-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.0720.0027.23-0.12-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0742.1139.01-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.180.0766.6767.920.060.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0773.3372.090.050.03
Georgia St.SB0.200.0765.0068.130.060.03
PacificWCC0.090.0736.8433.24-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0760.0057.770.020.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0750.0049.080.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0780.0074.250.050.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0745.0040.47-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.0726.3229.19-0.05-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.0736.8437.34-0.06-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0775.0073.780.050.03
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0733.3331.55-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.0740.0042.37-0.04-0.01
IllinoisB100.100.0761.9060.260.020.01
IowaB100.000.0765.0063.440.000.02
Michigan St.B100.100.0766.6764.940.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.0438.1036.85-0.04-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.0480.0072.630.080.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0442.1134.95-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.140.0460.0058.600.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.140.0442.8638.97-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0441.1840.92-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0440.0040.93-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0421.0525.57-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.120.0450.0052.660.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0455.0054.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.120.0468.4260.520.040.01
Southern MissCUSA0.120.0423.5320.64-0.06-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0445.0049.89-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.120.0445.0036.05-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0466.6766.030.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.120.0461.1164.970.030.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.0426.3236.41-0.05-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0441.1838.33-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0475.0075.670.050.02
UtahP120.110.0478.9580.160.060.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.0468.4266.110.040.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0452.9452.600.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0450.0053.360.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.0464.7165.450.030.01
ColoradoP120.090.0455.0052.260.010.00
CreightonBE0.110.0445.4540.61-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0475.0069.800.050.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0463.1667.460.020.01
KentuckySEC0.100.04100.0098.400.100.03
MontanaBSky0.090.0452.9455.910.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.100.0415.7919.24-0.07-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.0438.1045.39-0.03-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0436.8439.62-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.0465.0063.090.030.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.0438.8943.58-0.02-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0357.8959.150.000.01
HarvardIvy0.100.0364.2965.390.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.100.0380.0081.590.060.02
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0368.4260.880.040.01
TempleAmer0.000.0366.6763.860.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.0331.2527.76-0.04-0.02
WinthropBSth0.110.0347.0651.73-0.010.00
BrownIvy0.100.0341.1837.58-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.0371.4370.710.040.01
ElonCAA0.100.0345.0042.60-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.100.0350.0046.850.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.0315.0017.49-0.07-0.02
MarylandB100.100.0381.8276.500.060.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.0331.5830.52-0.04-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0357.1454.280.000.00
North FloridaASun0.100.0355.0060.480.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.0336.8440.44-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.0377.2777.580.050.02
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6754.180.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0361.9058.660.000.01
RutgersB100.100.0345.4536.53-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0361.1156.260.020.00