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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Houston Baptist

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:320.9
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:300
Current SOS:42
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:6-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:269



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-9154.00.01%
14-10155.00.01%
13-11169.50.04%
12-12210.70.24%
11-13229.40.86%
10-14252.22.82%
9-15276.05.61%
8-16296.011.65%
7-17313.617.42%
6-18327.220.60%
5-19337.218.94%
4-20343.512.61%
3-21347.36.38%
2-22349.62.26%
1-23350.60.48%
0-24350.30.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern (172.6)B10A65-58L0%0.0
11-22UT Arlington (145.7)SBA87-69L0%0.0
12-3Rice (272.7)CUSAA0-025%-8.0
12-7San Francisco (93.7)WCCA0-03%-22.3
12-16Houston (124.5)AmerA0-05%-20.1
12-20UC Riverside (302.7)BWA0-026%-7.5
1-3Northwestern St. (187.6)SlndH0-028%-7.1
1-5McNeese St. (262.5)SlndA0-020%-10.0
1-10Southeastern Louisiana (310.5)SlndA0-032%-5.7
1-13Nicholls St. (301.0)SlndA0-033%-5.4
1-17New Orleans (282.4)SlndH0-050%-0.1
1-19Central Arkansas (334.0)SlndH0-065%4.7
1-24Lamar (294.3)SlndH0-052%0.6
1-31Sam Houston St. (158.4)SlndA0-09%-16.4
2-2Abilene Christian (315.6)SlndH0-057%2.2
2-7Stephen F. Austin (116.4)SlndA0-05%-19.4
2-9Texas A&M Corpus Chris (169.8)SlndH0-025%-8.0
2-14Sam Houston St. (158.4)SlndH0-022%-9.2
2-16Lamar (294.3)SlndA0-029%-6.6
2-23Incarnate Word (206.9)SlndA0-017%-11.6
2-28Stephen F. Austin (116.4)SlndH0-015%-12.2
3-3Abilene Christian (315.6)SlndA0-034%-5.0
3-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (169.8)SlndA0-010%-15.2
3-7Incarnate Word (206.9)SlndH0-036%-4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Houston BaptistSlnd31.2526.420.0026.83-31.25-12.25
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.005.240.0028.19-0.00-2.29
LamarSlnd0.005.200.0031.93-0.00-1.88
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.005.170.0063.74-0.001.42
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.005.1750.0061.580.001.20
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.005.1650.0062.580.001.30
Incarnate WordSlnd0.005.15100.0049.640.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.003.050.0028.27-0.00-1.32
Central ArkansasSlnd0.003.050.0020.92-0.00-1.77
Nicholls St.Slnd0.003.040.0028.02-0.00-1.34
McNeese St.Slnd0.003.040.0044.22-0.00-0.35
Northwestern St.Slnd0.003.030.0053.21-0.000.19
New OrleansSlnd0.003.030.0034.12-0.00-0.96
RiceCUSA0.002.2033.3325.84-0.00-1.06
HoustonAmer0.002.20100.0062.700.000.56
UC RiversideBW0.002.160.0027.64-0.00-0.97
NorthwesternB1025.002.08100.0039.4425.00-0.44
San FranciscoWCC0.002.08100.0061.540.000.48
UT ArlingtonSB25.002.0866.6754.838.330.20
Grand CanyonWAC3.120.2450.0050.880.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.2475.0058.430.000.04
Texas St.SB0.000.2366.6748.390.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2340.0043.71-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.20100.0070.270.000.08
North TexasCUSA0.000.2066.6738.720.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.2066.6764.880.000.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.20100.0031.710.00-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.190.0040.20-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1675.0069.180.000.06
IndianaB100.000.1680.0057.960.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.1666.6752.810.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1650.0037.390.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.160.0039.88-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.1650.0069.360.000.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.150.0034.67-0.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1533.3334.36-0.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1525.0052.91-0.000.01
TroySB0.000.150.0044.74-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1550.0066.640.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.150.0016.93-0.00-0.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1280.0072.030.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1275.0050.400.000.00
BaylorB120.000.12100.0070.100.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.1260.0056.290.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1275.0074.330.000.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1133.3326.24-0.00-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1150.0045.970.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1150.0062.790.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.1175.0063.510.000.03
BradleyMVC3.120.1133.3322.95-1.04-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1150.0034.540.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1160.0050.930.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0086.000.000.08
MichiganB100.000.11100.0070.020.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.11100.0084.620.000.08
UC IrvineBW0.000.1133.3367.83-0.000.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1166.6750.930.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.110.0040.87-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1166.6751.260.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.1150.0035.290.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.11100.0047.530.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0925.0040.14-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0925.0046.39-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.09100.0057.580.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.08100.0067.390.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0038.56-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0875.0065.610.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0880.0074.980.000.04
UCLAP120.000.08100.0064.700.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0866.6768.540.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.08100.0054.620.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0840.0033.57-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.08100.0061.740.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.080.0039.25-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.08100.0071.240.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0833.3332.25-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0866.6756.000.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.08100.0051.040.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0866.6757.060.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0071.470.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0833.3340.57-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.080.0036.85-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0875.0051.180.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0880.0076.960.000.04
XavierBE0.000.08100.0080.240.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0053.170.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0866.6758.810.000.01
TexasB120.000.08100.0079.170.000.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.08100.0049.160.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.480.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0055.80-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.070.0041.06-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0026.270.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0058.760.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.070.0031.81-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0750.0050.520.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0733.3363.19-0.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.32-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0733.3343.01-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.880.000.02
IowaB100.000.0760.0064.030.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0775.0073.300.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0766.6745.370.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0440.0050.60-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.04100.0074.590.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.04100.0047.400.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0466.6745.370.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0450.0065.370.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0460.0045.520.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0450.0043.570.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0036.18-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0466.6751.200.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0433.3352.75-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0450.0045.420.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0466.6745.890.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0450.0054.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0433.3342.50-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0433.3343.21-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0466.6746.440.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0433.3346.01-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0466.6756.740.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0433.3351.67-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0420.0035.87-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.04100.0043.380.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.04100.0084.910.000.03
UtahP120.000.0466.6772.280.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0420.0029.26-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC3.120.0466.6759.481.040.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0450.0055.640.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.040.0066.25-0.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0475.0070.270.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0060.130.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0450.0067.730.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.04100.0087.980.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.040.0021.27-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0420.0053.69-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0433.3368.63-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0466.6746.410.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0460.0056.230.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0450.0052.920.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0425.0053.38-0.000.00
BrownIvy3.120.0320.0037.46-1.88-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0059.940.000.01
ElonCAA3.120.0333.3341.47-1.04-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0051.910.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0034.54-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0066.670.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.480.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
North FloridaASun3.120.030.0044.98-3.12-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3339.78-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.810.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.770.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0043.930.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0062.270.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0366.6735.400.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3333.50-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.220.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.48-0.000.00