live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


The Citadel

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:327.0
Current RPI:327
Expected SOS:324
Current SOS:324
Current Record:8-19
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-13
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:323
Expected OOC SOS:318



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-19327.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14VMI (286.0)SCN65-66L0%0.0
11-15Air Force (240.0)MWCN68-55L0%0.0
11-25Florida St. (110.0)ACCA66-55L0%0.0
12-2College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA59-55L0%0.0
12-6Navy (252.0)PatH67-60W100%0.0
12-11Chattanooga (112.0)SCH48-67L0%0.0
12-20Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA64-61L0%0.0
12-22Michigan St. (23.0)B10A82-56L0%0.0
12-30Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH51-47W100%0.0
1-3Western Carolina (220.0)SCA78-70L0%0.0
1-5UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA83-85W100%0.0
1-8Samford (305.0)SCH77-67W100%0.0
1-10Mercer (212.0)SCA74-51L0%0.0
1-15Wofford (47.0)SCH69-66W100%0.0
1-17Furman (293.0)SCH62-74L0%0.0
1-22East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA70-59L0%0.0
1-24VMI (286.0)SCA85-75L0%0.0
1-31Chattanooga (112.0)SCA78-73L0%0.0
2-5Mercer (212.0)SCH53-76L0%0.0
2-7UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH63-79L0%0.0
2-12Samford (305.0)SCA65-66W100%0.0
2-15VMI (286.0)SCH69-84L0%0.0
2-19Furman (293.0)SCA56-62W100%0.0
2-21Wofford (47.0)SCA78-52L0%0.0
2-26East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH74-73W100%0.0
2-28Western Carolina (220.0)SCH54-67L0%0.0
3-6Furman (293.0)SCN56-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
The CitadelSC26.6326.6329.2729.27-11.04-11.04
FurmanSC6.826.8225.0025.00-3.41-3.41
VMISC6.716.7124.0024.00-3.49-3.49
MercerSC5.045.0448.2848.28-0.17-0.17
WoffordSC5.045.0483.3383.333.363.36
Western CarolinaSC4.944.9439.2939.29-1.06-1.06
UNC GreensboroSC4.934.9325.0025.00-2.47-2.47
ChattanoogaSC4.904.9064.2964.291.401.40
SamfordSC4.884.8841.3841.38-0.84-0.84
East Tennessee St.SC4.874.8750.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC2.012.0131.2531.25-0.75-0.75
NavyPat1.981.9840.0040.00-0.40-0.40
College of CharlestonCAA1.941.9425.0025.00-0.97-0.97
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.911.9131.0331.03-0.73-0.73
Florida St.ACC1.911.9150.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B101.881.8866.6766.670.630.63
Air ForceMWC1.851.8539.2939.29-0.40-0.40
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
DukeACC0.230.2387.8887.880.170.17
ArmyPat0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
PresbyterianBSth0.210.2121.4321.43-0.12-0.12
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
MarylandB100.180.1881.8281.820.120.12
MinnesotaB100.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1559.2659.260.030.03
PittsburghACC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1375.8675.860.070.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
UC DavisBW0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
ElonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
LibertyBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
NortheasternCAA0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
ClemsonACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.110.1190.6290.620.090.09
George WashingtonA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
MaristMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0783.3383.330.040.04
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.030.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
LehighPat0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01