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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


The Citadel

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:324.3
Current RPI:349
Expected SOS:319
Current SOS:346
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:306



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-11190.30.03%
14-12213.30.21%
13-13234.90.55%
12-14255.41.84%
11-15277.54.62%
10-16297.58.51%
9-17312.314.22%
8-18324.718.84%
7-19334.118.61%
6-20340.515.52%
5-21344.910.09%
4-22347.74.67%
3-23349.21.85%
2-24349.90.35%
1-25350.60.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14VMI (275.5)SCN65-66L0%0.0
11-15Air Force (197.6)MWCN68-55L0%0.0
11-25Florida St. (165.5)ACCA66-55L0%0.0
12-2College of Charleston (144.3)CAAA0-09%-16.1
12-6Navy (290.2)PatH0-058%2.4
12-11Chattanooga (232.7)SCH0-041%-2.7
12-20Virginia Tech (224.2)ACCA0-014%-12.7
12-22Michigan St. (36.2)B10A0-01%-29.1
12-30Bethune Cookman (338.0)MEACH0-069%6.1
1-3Western Carolina (210.2)SCA0-018%-11.0
1-5UNC Greensboro (322.1)SCA0-035%-4.5
1-8Samford (303.4)SCH0-059%2.8
1-10Mercer (195.8)SCA0-015%-12.2
1-15Wofford (56.8)SCH0-011%-14.6
1-17Furman (300.9)SCH0-062%3.7
1-22East Tennessee St. (152.9)SCA0-013%-13.3
1-24VMI (275.5)SCA0-030%-6.5
1-31Chattanooga (232.7)SCA0-021%-9.9
2-5Mercer (195.8)SCH0-034%-5.0
2-7UNC Greensboro (322.1)SCH0-059%2.7
2-12Samford (303.4)SCA0-036%-4.4
2-14VMI (275.5)SCH0-052%0.7
2-19Furman (300.9)SCA0-039%-3.4
2-21Wofford (56.8)SCA0-03%-21.8
2-26East Tennessee St. (152.9)SCH0-030%-6.2
2-28Western Carolina (210.2)SCH0-037%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
The CitadelSC31.5326.640.0027.71-31.53-11.88
VMISC16.676.930.0031.91-16.67-2.51
MercerSC0.005.0533.3352.45-0.000.25
FurmanSC0.005.0425.0026.09-0.00-2.41
SamfordSC0.005.0333.3333.76-0.00-1.63
Western CarolinaSC0.005.0240.0046.67-0.00-0.33
WoffordSC0.005.0280.0076.290.002.64
ChattanoogaSC0.005.0225.0046.23-0.00-0.38
UNC GreensboroSC0.005.020.0026.76-0.00-2.33
East Tennessee St.SC0.005.0166.6757.280.000.73
Virginia TechACC0.002.0960.0034.350.00-0.65
NavyPat0.002.0620.0029.50-0.00-0.85
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.9920.0031.50-0.00-0.74
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.9940.0052.20-0.000.09
Florida St.ACC16.671.9925.0036.67-8.33-0.53
Michigan St.B100.001.9675.0071.070.000.82
Air ForceMWC16.671.920.0043.37-16.67-0.25
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.080.2466.6747.140.69-0.01
West VirginiaB122.080.24100.0069.722.080.09
DukeACC0.000.23100.0083.600.000.16
PresbyterianBSth0.000.230.0022.89-0.00-0.12
ArmyPat4.860.21100.0069.414.860.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2033.3330.11-0.00-0.08
MarylandB100.000.17100.0071.860.000.08
MinnesotaB100.000.1750.0055.290.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1666.6753.550.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1660.0057.880.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.16100.0079.800.000.09
Colorado St.MWC0.000.14100.0068.200.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.1450.0044.110.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1460.0056.970.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1450.0036.120.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.140.0066.35-0.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1425.0052.61-0.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1380.0057.110.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1340.0039.53-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.1375.0067.420.000.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.13100.0065.430.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.1383.3369.220.000.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1380.0057.990.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.1375.0056.120.000.02
NortheasternCAA1.670.1380.0066.691.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1366.6751.600.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.1175.0069.280.000.04
MaristMAAC0.000.1120.0033.15-0.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.000.11100.0053.380.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1050.0027.510.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1040.0057.50-0.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1020.0029.02-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1075.0068.260.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.10100.0052.420.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.10100.0086.460.000.07
OaklandHorz0.000.1016.6726.44-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1014.2931.08-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.10100.0045.580.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0035.63-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.100.0025.58-0.00-0.05
PurdueB100.000.1083.3368.600.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.100.0034.56-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0050.770.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0980.0068.140.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0073.600.000.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0780.0062.960.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0036.14-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0057.480.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0780.0071.650.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0733.3359.02-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0725.0043.39-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0760.0055.640.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0733.3330.44-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0783.3384.530.000.05
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0019.26-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0064.150.000.02
TCUB120.000.07100.0061.120.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0051.700.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0760.0055.090.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0055.290.000.01
VCUA100.000.0780.0073.080.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3353.30-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0716.6731.72-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0071.480.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0725.0035.38-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.980.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.070.0045.69-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0022.02-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6749.610.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0725.0039.50-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0720.0038.27-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0725.0040.45-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0750.0040.550.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0780.0058.430.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0766.6759.500.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0725.0053.31-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0733.3335.82-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0018.95-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0725.0049.12-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0720.0039.02-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0740.0032.41-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0018.42-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0760.0067.690.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.07100.0066.080.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.110.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0780.0079.380.000.04
LafayettePat0.000.0760.0060.080.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0720.0042.40-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0740.0031.26-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0775.0066.610.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0027.68-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0783.3339.590.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0065.310.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.070.0038.82-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0780.0070.970.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0053.810.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0766.6756.860.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.87-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0053.300.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0640.0052.52-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.410.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE1.670.06100.0066.691.670.02
StetsonASun0.000.060.0030.90-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6740.010.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0030.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3338.74-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0071.830.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.29-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.08-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0019.74-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0036.68-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.260.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.220.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.930.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.150.000.04
ColoradoP122.780.0475.0060.101.390.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.040.0023.00-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.040.0020.69-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0425.0031.71-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0450.0050.040.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0475.0045.520.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.04100.0069.580.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.110.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0022.97-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.79-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.64-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.67-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.02-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.77-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.830.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0040.810.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.150.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.750.000.02
PennIvy0.000.030.0023.29-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0046.840.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.520.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3339.69-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.60-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0046.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.320.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0040.80-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.51-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.390.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6761.870.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0350.0064.920.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0021.73-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0055.990.000.00
ManhattanMAAC1.670.0325.0048.57-0.83-0.00
MassachusettsA101.670.0383.3366.601.110.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.51-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.900.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0325.0046.64-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.330.000.00