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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


The Citadel

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:282.0
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:225
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:230
Expected OOC SOS:251



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21282.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA81-68L0%0.0
11-18Stetson (328.0)ASunA112-116W100%0.0
11-20Iowa St. (21.0)B12A130-63L0%0.0
11-23Arizona St. (125.0)P12A127-110L0%0.0
11-28Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH97-83W100%0.0
12-2Colgate (294.0)PatH108-101W100%0.0
12-3USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH97-92W100%0.0
12-4Campbell (246.0)BSthH91-97L0%0.0
12-17Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA113-71L0%0.0
12-19UMBC (165.0)AEA120-111L0%0.0
12-28UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH87-95L0%0.0
12-31Furman (96.0)SCA83-68L0%0.0
1-2Wofford (190.0)SCA103-104W100%0.0
1-5East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH71-115L0%0.0
1-7VMI (329.0)SCH79-74W100%0.0
1-11Chattanooga (139.0)SCA83-73L0%0.0
1-14Samford (170.0)SCH90-98L0%0.0
1-19Western Carolina (271.0)SCA100-95L0%0.0
1-21UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA81-72L0%0.0
1-28Mercer (192.0)SCA82-66L0%0.0
2-2Wofford (190.0)SCH90-100L0%0.0
2-4Furman (96.0)SCH91-99L0%0.0
2-9East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA90-69L0%0.0
2-11VMI (329.0)SCA101-78L0%0.0
2-18Mercer (192.0)SCH78-89L0%0.0
2-22Western Carolina (271.0)SCH80-84L0%0.0
2-25Samford (170.0)SCA96-102W100%0.0
2-27Chattanooga (139.0)SCH85-76W100%0.0
3-3Western Carolina (271.0)SCN72-78W100%0.0
3-4UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCN76-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
The CitadelSC26.5426.5429.7129.71-10.77-10.77
UNC GreensboroSC6.086.0867.8667.862.172.17
Western CarolinaSC5.965.9618.5218.52-3.75-3.75
SamfordSC4.534.5353.3353.330.300.30
East Tennessee St.SC4.524.5276.6776.672.412.41
WoffordSC4.464.4642.8642.86-0.64-0.64
VMISC4.454.4511.5411.54-3.43-3.43
FurmanSC4.414.4160.7160.710.940.94
MercerSC4.384.3839.2939.29-0.94-0.94
ChattanoogaSC4.384.3859.2659.260.810.81
PresbyterianBSth1.971.9711.1111.11-1.53-1.53
CampbellBSth1.951.9543.3343.33-0.26-0.26
USC UpstateASun1.831.8348.1548.15-0.07-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA1.781.7871.8871.880.780.78
Virginia TechACC1.761.7667.7467.740.620.62
StetsonASun1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
ColgatePat1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
UMBCAE1.691.6955.5655.560.190.19
Arizona St.P121.671.6743.7543.75-0.21-0.21
Iowa St.B121.671.6768.7568.750.620.62
UNC AshevilleBSth0.390.3970.0070.000.160.16
High PointBSth0.300.3042.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.290.2940.0040.00-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.280.2840.0040.00-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.250.2555.1755.170.030.03
NavyPat0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
West VirginiaB120.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
Miami FLACC0.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
WinthropBSth0.200.2080.0080.000.120.12
Wake ForestACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1584.3884.380.110.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
NJITASun0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
DaytonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DavidsonA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
New HampshireAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02