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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


The Citadel

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:345.0
Current RPI:345
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:315
Current Record:4-25
Expected Record:4-25
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-15
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:338
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-25345.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8VMI (211.0)BSthA82-71L0%0.0
11-9Army (235.0)PatN69-84L0%0.0
11-12Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH82-68W100%0.0
11-18Tennessee (42.0)SECA86-60L0%0.0
11-21Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA82-54L0%0.0
11-29Towson (95.0)CAAA84-59L0%0.0
12-4Navy (321.0)PatA79-74L0%0.0
12-7Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH55-67L0%0.0
12-21Nebraska (48.0)B10A77-62L0%0.0
12-29College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH48-72L0%0.0
1-2Radford (240.0)BSthA76-59L0%0.0
1-6Chattanooga (243.0)SCH78-82L0%0.0
1-9Wofford (153.0)SCA79-75L0%0.0
1-11Elon (162.0)SCA74-65L0%0.0
1-16UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA69-65L0%0.0
1-18Furman (339.0)SCH71-76L0%0.0
1-23Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH67-80L0%0.0
1-25Western Carolina (221.0)SCH60-78L0%0.0
1-30Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA83-52L0%0.0
2-1Davidson (126.0)SCA62-43L0%0.0
2-6Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA54-45L0%0.0
2-8Wofford (153.0)SCH56-77L0%0.0
2-15Furman (339.0)SCA76-67L0%0.0
2-17Davidson (126.0)SCH76-83L0%0.0
2-22Western Carolina (221.0)SCA70-52L0%0.0
2-24Samford (313.0)SCH81-71W100%0.0
3-1Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH80-63W100%0.0
3-7UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCN76-86W100%0.0
3-8Wofford (153.0)SCN68-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
The CitadelSC26.3826.3811.2011.20-20.47-20.47
WoffordSC5.995.9953.8553.850.460.46
Georgia SouthernSC4.444.4437.9337.93-1.07-1.07
DavidsonSC4.344.3458.6258.620.750.75
FurmanSC4.324.3220.0020.00-2.59-2.59
Western CarolinaSC4.314.3148.2848.28-0.15-0.15
UNC GreensboroSC4.274.2737.0437.04-1.11-1.11
Appalachian St.SC4.184.1812.5012.50-3.13-3.13
SamfordSC2.712.7134.4834.48-0.84-0.84
ChattanoogaSC2.682.6850.0050.000.000.00
ElonSC2.642.6453.5753.570.190.19
PresbyterianBSth2.172.1713.7913.79-1.57-1.57
Gardner WebbBSth2.032.0348.2848.28-0.07-0.07
VMIBSth1.921.9253.8553.850.150.15
RadfordBSth1.901.9058.6258.620.330.33
College of CharlestonCAA1.901.9040.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Wake ForestACC1.871.8750.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA1.811.8166.6766.670.600.60
NavyPat1.811.8125.0025.00-0.90-0.90
ArmyPat1.781.7844.8344.83-0.18-0.18
TennesseeSEC1.751.7561.2961.290.400.40
NebraskaB101.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
High PointBSth0.420.4250.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.380.3859.3859.380.070.07
CampbellBSth0.360.3632.1432.14-0.13-0.13
WinthropBSth0.330.3356.6756.670.040.04
LibertyBSth0.300.3027.5927.59-0.13-0.13
William & MaryCAA0.290.2961.2961.290.070.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.270.2729.0329.03-0.11-0.11
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.260.2660.0060.000.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.210.2114.2914.29-0.15-0.15
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
ClemsonACC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
ColgatePat0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
DukeACC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
BucknellPat0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
VirginiaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Miami FLACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
AmericanPat0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
LafayettePat0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.2121.21-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Saint LouisA100.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UMBCAE0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.040.04
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01