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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


The Citadel

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:322.0
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:295
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:273
Expected OOC SOS:341



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22322.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Butler (57.0)BEA144-71L0%0.0
11-17Stetson (303.0)ASunH94-93W100%0.0
11-21Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA95-79L0%0.0
11-25Georgia Southern (243.0)SBN90-95W100%0.0
11-28USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA81-88W100%0.0
12-2Air Force (226.0)MWCA97-93L0%0.0
12-5College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH74-82L0%0.0
12-16Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA87-99W100%0.0
12-19Campbell (308.0)BSthA101-82L0%0.0
12-29Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA111-93L0%0.0
1-2Chattanooga (50.0)SCH78-84L0%0.0
1-5Samford (252.0)SCA94-74L0%0.0
1-9Mercer (194.0)SCH80-91L0%0.0
1-14Wofford (199.0)SCH83-86L0%0.0
1-16Furman (167.0)SCH89-86W100%0.0
1-21Western Carolina (166.0)SCA91-92W100%0.0
1-23East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA101-92L0%0.0
1-28UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH95-102L0%0.0
1-30VMI (316.0)SCH78-75W100%0.0
2-1Chattanooga (50.0)SCA125-85L0%0.0
2-6Mercer (194.0)SCA88-72L0%0.0
2-8Samford (252.0)SCH86-95L0%0.0
2-11Furman (167.0)SCA95-75L0%0.0
2-13Wofford (199.0)SCA99-89L0%0.0
2-18East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH51-67L0%0.0
2-20Western Carolina (166.0)SCH97-102L0%0.0
2-25UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA92-63L0%0.0
2-27VMI (316.0)SCA111-95L0%0.0
3-4Mercer (194.0)SCN71-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
The CitadelSC26.4626.4625.9325.93-12.74-12.74
MercerSC6.146.1450.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC4.614.6163.3363.331.231.23
ChattanoogaSC4.594.5983.3383.333.063.06
FurmanSC4.594.5951.7251.720.160.16
Western CarolinaSC4.554.5542.8642.86-0.65-0.65
VMISC4.554.5520.0020.00-2.73-2.73
SamfordSC4.544.5434.4834.48-1.41-1.41
WoffordSC4.504.5039.2939.29-0.96-0.96
UNC GreensboroSC4.474.4733.3333.33-1.49-1.49
PresbyterianBSth2.002.0025.9325.93-0.96-0.96
CampbellBSth1.901.9030.7730.77-0.73-0.73
StetsonASun1.871.8727.5927.59-0.84-0.84
USC UpstateASun1.841.8425.9325.93-0.89-0.89
College of CharlestonCAA1.811.8151.7251.720.060.06
CharlotteCUSA1.811.8140.6240.62-0.34-0.34
ButlerBE1.791.7966.6766.670.600.60
Georgia SouthernSB1.781.7842.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Air ForceMWC1.721.7237.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Kennesaw St.ASun0.310.3131.0331.03-0.12-0.12
UNC AshevilleBSth0.290.2964.5264.520.080.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.270.2756.2556.250.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.210.2157.6957.690.030.03
High PointBSth0.210.2164.2964.290.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
DavidsonA100.200.2061.2961.290.040.04
WinthropBSth0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1822.2222.22-0.10-0.10
RadfordBSth0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1776.6776.670.090.09
North FloridaASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
LibertyBSth0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
NJITASun0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
UCFAmer0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
TroySB0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
IllinoisB100.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
North TexasCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
CreightonBE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
XavierBE0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00