The Citadel

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	332.3
Current RPI:	338
Expected SOS:	238
Current SOS:	260
Current Record:	2-19
Expected Record:	3-24
Current Conf Record:	1-11
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.06%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-12
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC RPI:	328
Expected OOC SOS:	231

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-19	287.0	0.01%
7-20	300.0	0.05%
6-21	309.8	0.69%
5-22	319.1	6.16%
4-23	327.8	23.41%
3-24	333.7	41.98%
2-25	337.4	27.69%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Virginia Military Inst (265.0)	BSth	N	103-100	L	0%	0.0
11-12	Army (293.1)	Pat	N	72-83	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Clemson (164.6)	ACC	H	50-73	L	0%	0.0
11-26	High Point (283.7)	BSth	A	80-72	L	0%	0.0
12-1	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	A	83-64	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Wofford (177.8)	SC	A	82-63	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Coastal Carolina (132.7)	BSth	H	58-80	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Charleston Southern (152.9)	BSth	H	69-88	L	0%	0.0
12-19	James Madison (250.9)	CAA	A	67-49	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Denver (91.9)	SB	A	70-58	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Tennessee (138.4)	SEC	A	86-55	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Furman (238.9)	SC	A	77-45	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Samford (250.7)	SC	H	73-62	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Elon (212.2)	SC	H	55-70	L	0%	0.0
1-14	NC Greensboro (256.5)	SC	H	66-67	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Davidson (62.8)	SC	A	80-51	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	A	78-72	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Wofford (177.8)	SC	H	55-62	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Furman (238.9)	SC	H	58-67	L	0%	0.0
2-2	NC Greensboro (256.5)	SC	A	82-71	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Elon (212.2)	SC	A	71-66	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Davidson (62.8)	SC	H	0-0		4%	-19.0
2-11	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	H	0-0		31%	-5.3
2-16	Western Carolina (259.5)	SC	A	0-0		17%	-10.4
2-18	Chattanooga (284.4)	SC	A	0-0		12%	-12.8
2-22	Appalachian St. (257.9)	SC	H	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-25	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	H	0-0		12%	-12.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
The Citadel	SC	26.57	26.36	8.42	9.81	-22.09	-21.19
College of Charleston	SC	3.53	4.78	56.52	57.50	0.46	0.72
Wofford	SC	5.25	4.64	52.38	54.03	0.25	0.37
Furman	SC	5.45	4.59	40.00	42.98	-1.09	-0.65
Davidson	SC	3.07	4.57	76.19	75.78	1.61	2.36
Georgia Southern	SC	3.03	4.56	40.00	39.68	-0.61	-0.94
NC Greensboro	SC	5.20	4.53	28.57	28.44	-2.23	-1.95
Elon	SC	5.19	4.49	47.37	45.75	-0.27	-0.38
Chattanooga	SC	0.70	2.82	27.27	33.08	-0.32	-0.95
Samford	SC	2.92	2.78	35.00	36.55	-0.88	-0.75
Western Carolina	SC	0.80	2.78	34.78	35.63	-0.24	-0.80
Appalachian St.	SC	0.92	2.78	33.33	36.01	-0.31	-0.78
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.67	2.19	52.63	58.77	0.14	0.38
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.71	2.16	66.67	67.31	0.90	0.75
High Point	BSth	2.67	2.10	28.57	30.22	-1.14	-0.83
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.56	2.03	42.11	41.95	-0.40	-0.33
Clemson	ACC	2.60	2.02	45.45	43.64	-0.24	-0.26
Tennessee	SEC	2.53	2.01	42.86	42.65	-0.36	-0.30
Army	Pat	2.38	1.85	42.86	43.23	-0.34	-0.25
Denver	SB	2.38	1.85	69.57	71.25	0.93	0.79
James Madison	CAA	2.38	1.85	37.50	38.17	-0.60	-0.44
Presbyterian	BSth	0.63	0.48	40.91	43.65	-0.11	-0.06
NC Asheville	BSth	0.45	0.37	68.18	67.72	0.16	0.13
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.40	0.35	34.78	38.74	-0.12	-0.08
Campbell	BSth	0.36	0.28	57.69	58.27	0.06	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.34	0.28	34.78	34.75	-0.10	-0.08
South Carolina	SEC	0.27	0.26	40.91	39.60	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.24	0.25	27.27	27.33	-0.11	-0.11
Radford	BSth	0.30	0.25	8.70	13.12	-0.24	-0.18
Wake Forest	ACC	0.27	0.23	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.22	0.20	73.91	68.65	0.10	0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.32	0.19	45.45	41.17	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.26	0.19	82.61	79.93	0.17	0.11
Jacksonville	ASun	0.27	0.17	20.83	23.61	-0.16	-0.09
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.17	66.67	69.71	0.05	0.07
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.21	0.16	39.13	36.12	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.21	0.16	72.73	71.57	0.10	0.07
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.15	0.16	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.22	0.14	55.00	54.81	0.02	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.16	0.14	72.00	72.22	0.07	0.06
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.14	44.44	41.65	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.13	9.52	13.17	-0.14	-0.10
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.13	86.96	83.30	0.08	0.09
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.13	70.83	64.53	0.05	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.16	0.13	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.16	0.13	96.00	93.53	0.15	0.11
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.13	66.67	63.50	0.05	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.13	40.91	42.03	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.13	69.57	65.88	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.12	4.00	5.27	-0.10	-0.11
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.14	0.12	76.00	72.48	0.08	0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.11	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.10	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.10	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.10	28.57	25.79	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.10	82.61	80.50	0.04	0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.17	0.10	14.29	17.12	-0.12	-0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.17	0.10	30.43	29.57	-0.07	-0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.16	0.10	34.78	34.46	-0.05	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.43	66.55	0.04	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.10	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.15	0.10	83.33	84.76	0.10	0.07
Old Dominion	CAA	0.15	0.10	60.00	58.30	0.03	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	12.50	13.42	-0.07	-0.07
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.09	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.08
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.15	0.09	80.00	78.08	0.09	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.07	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.07	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.07	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.07	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.07	33.33	37.11	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.07	47.37	42.13	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	18.18	19.91	-0.07	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.07	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.07	85.71	78.11	0.08	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.07	62.50	59.52	0.03	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.07	62.50	60.78	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.07	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.11	0.07	73.91	75.03	0.05	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.07	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.07	30.43	29.49	-0.02	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.07	78.26	78.42	0.03	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.07	43.48	42.98	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.07	73.91	74.94	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.07	60.87	53.44	0.02	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.06	34.78	37.18	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.06	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.06	37.50	38.36	-0.02	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.06	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.06	34.78	35.19	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.06	31.82	34.86	-0.04	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.00	31.40	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.06	35.00	40.74	-0.03	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	61.90	58.61	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.06	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.06	70.83	68.83	0.04	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.06	69.57	71.58	0.04	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.06	79.17	78.05	0.00	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.04	73.91	68.41	0.03	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.04	13.04	14.47	-0.04	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.04	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.00	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.85	-0.03	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.03	44.44	48.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.03	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.03	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.04	-0.05	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.03
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.69	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.00	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.00	0.03	8.33	10.90	-0.00	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.44	-0.02	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.39	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.60	-0.03	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.23	0.02	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.08	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.62	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.00	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.00	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.00	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.14	0.03	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.00	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.00	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.03	62.50	61.43	0.00	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.78	0.04	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.75	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.71	0.03	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	70.16	0.00	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.00	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.76	-0.03	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.03	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	40.00	39.70	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.06	0.02	0.01