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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


The Citadel

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:306.8
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:279
Current Record:7-15
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-9
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:344



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16254.00.12%
11-17270.02.10%
10-18285.811.34%
9-19299.929.94%
8-20312.637.89%
7-21323.618.60%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Butler (48.7)BEA144-71L0%0.0
11-17Stetson (303.6)ASunH94-93W100%0.0
11-21Presbyterian (332.3)BSthA95-79L0%0.0
11-25Georgia Southern (250.4)SBN90-95W100%0.0
11-28USC Upstate (326.3)ASunA81-88W100%0.0
12-2Air Force (234.4)MWCA97-93L0%0.0
12-5College of Charleston (95.1)CAAH74-82L0%0.0
12-16Bethune Cookman (301.5)MEACA87-99W100%0.0
12-19Campbell (328.4)BSthA101-82L0%0.0
12-29Charlotte (238.9)CUSAA111-93L0%0.0
1-2Chattanooga (41.8)SCH78-84L0%0.0
1-5Samford (248.8)SCA94-74L0%0.0
1-9Mercer (132.1)SCH80-91L0%0.0
1-14Wofford (187.5)SCH83-86L0%0.0
1-16Furman (157.5)SCH89-86W100%0.0
1-21Western Carolina (239.8)SCA91-92W100%0.0
1-23East Tennessee St. (124.0)SCA101-92L0%0.0
1-28UNC Greensboro (270.6)SCH95-102L0%0.0
1-30VMI (335.3)SCH78-75W100%0.0
2-1Chattanooga (41.8)SCA125-85L0%0.0
2-6Mercer (132.1)SCA88-72L0%0.0
2-8Samford (248.8)SCH86-95L0%0.0
2-11Furman (157.5)SCA0-010%-14.1
2-13Wofford (187.5)SCA0-010%-13.9
2-18East Tennessee St. (124.0)SCH0-023%-8.1
2-20Western Carolina (239.8)SCH0-038%-3.5
2-25UNC Greensboro (270.6)SCA0-018%-9.8
2-27VMI (335.3)SCA0-043%-2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
The CitadelSC26.4226.4633.6532.47-8.64-9.28
FurmanSC3.244.6556.5254.740.420.44
WoffordSC3.134.6240.9142.61-0.57-0.68
Western CarolinaSC2.984.6230.0031.30-1.19-1.73
VMISC3.084.6015.7915.70-2.11-3.16
East Tennessee St.SC2.934.5957.1457.200.420.66
MercerSC5.244.5966.6766.741.751.54
SamfordSC5.254.5936.3638.36-1.43-1.07
UNC GreensboroSC2.984.5923.8126.46-1.56-2.16
ChattanoogaSC5.194.5185.7185.623.713.22
PresbyterianBSth2.532.0821.0523.95-1.47-1.08
CampbellBSth2.491.9925.0026.83-1.24-0.92
StetsonASun2.431.9525.0028.80-1.22-0.82
USC UpstateASun2.441.9223.8124.14-1.28-0.99
College of CharlestonCAA2.381.8861.9059.480.570.36
CharlotteCUSA2.371.8831.8238.92-0.86-0.42
ButlerBE2.331.8669.5767.920.910.67
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.331.8533.3337.43-0.78-0.47
Georgia SouthernSB2.381.8542.1140.42-0.38-0.35
Air ForceMWC2.271.7940.9135.59-0.41-0.51
UNC AshevilleBSth0.320.3265.2266.190.100.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.450.3221.7423.40-0.25-0.17
NavyPat0.310.2964.0064.480.090.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.270.2745.4547.54-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.320.2360.0060.100.060.05
High PointBSth0.220.2355.0057.460.020.03
JacksonvilleASun0.260.2350.0049.850.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.250.2226.0929.18-0.12-0.09
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.2023.8126.56-0.09-0.09
LipscombASun0.260.2025.0029.28-0.13-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1929.1733.11-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.250.1961.9058.060.060.03
WinthropBSth0.220.1765.0063.440.070.05
RadfordBSth0.210.1750.0051.280.000.00
LibertyBSth0.160.1634.7836.51-0.05-0.04
Ohio St.B100.210.1660.0055.540.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1676.1973.410.080.07
ElonCAA0.150.1652.1750.420.010.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.1665.2264.370.060.04
LongwoodBSth0.170.1422.7324.97-0.09-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1347.6252.03-0.010.01
NJITASun0.110.1354.1755.260.010.01
North FloridaASun0.160.1365.2267.120.050.05
ClemsonACC0.160.1358.3358.370.030.02
UCFAmer0.160.1350.0044.680.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.150.1345.8344.11-0.01-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.1342.8646.35-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.160.1364.0057.920.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.210.1341.6739.46-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.200.1328.5733.35-0.08-0.04
DaytonA100.150.1386.9682.150.110.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1324.0024.17-0.10-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1350.0052.380.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1383.3378.400.070.07
South AlabamaSB0.150.1333.3334.19-0.05-0.04
TroySB0.150.1323.8126.72-0.08-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1240.0042.85-0.03-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1225.0025.09-0.07-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.100.1254.1751.980.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.1225.0033.20-0.03-0.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1287.5086.870.070.09
North TexasCUSA0.090.1233.3333.07-0.03-0.04
RichmondA100.160.1056.5255.730.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1038.1037.70-0.04-0.02
IPFWSum0.110.1070.8368.590.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0954.5552.540.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0972.0071.540.040.04
AuburnSEC0.160.0939.1335.44-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0952.1754.140.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0929.1733.74-0.04-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.0950.0048.130.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.150.0982.6177.520.100.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.0956.0052.840.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0750.0046.760.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0752.0048.860.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0768.1865.160.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0719.0525.90-0.07-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0617.3920.66-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.110.0679.1778.060.060.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.4886.910.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0642.8639.23-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0621.7423.32-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.100.0613.6418.18-0.08-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.070.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0659.0955.220.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0657.8956.090.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.230.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0670.8368.000.040.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.490.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0657.8961.760.010.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0650.0049.050.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0645.8346.63-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.9680.370.040.04
Texas St.SB0.110.0636.8437.57-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.100.0665.2259.750.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.0668.1871.310.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0641.6739.91-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.100.0671.4369.840.040.03
FIUCUSA0.100.0640.9145.29-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.0682.6179.390.070.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0640.0040.34-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.0650.0053.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0666.6765.220.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.580.020.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.230.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0663.6461.640.010.01
George MasonA100.100.0633.3333.70-0.03-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.010.000.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0635.0038.52-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0654.5554.970.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0679.1776.070.060.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0633.3330.27-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.48-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0652.0050.780.000.00
NevadaMWC0.100.0657.1455.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0658.3360.690.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0623.8122.82-0.05-0.03
TexasB120.090.0666.6762.210.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0676.1972.310.020.03
TulaneAmer0.100.0636.0034.92-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0652.1755.090.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0647.6249.26-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0658.3359.960.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0631.8232.69-0.04-0.02
WyomingMWC0.100.0643.4842.47-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0664.0062.040.010.01
DePaulBE0.090.0633.3334.01-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0672.0069.150.040.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.100.020.02
St. John'sBE0.090.0625.0023.45-0.05-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.860.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0650.0051.190.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0656.5262.820.010.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0628.5729.66-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.21-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.330.030.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0375.0071.800.030.01
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.050.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0362.5058.920.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.290.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0360.8760.530.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0331.5831.04-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.310.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.780.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.310.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.26-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.590.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.66-0.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.23-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0369.5770.070.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0373.0872.640.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.01-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.70-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.600.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.76-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.960.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.32-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.710.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.18-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.750.020.01
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.720.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.430.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0352.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.6413.63-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0362.5060.110.010.01