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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


The Citadel

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:312.2
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:207
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12167.00.01%
15-13190.50.02%
14-14209.50.11%
13-15229.20.36%
12-16247.61.51%
11-17267.14.43%
10-18284.59.10%
9-19299.014.98%
8-20311.820.31%
7-21321.619.98%
6-22329.716.49%
5-23336.18.71%
4-24340.53.26%
3-25343.80.67%
2-26345.40.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11College of Charleston (141.6)CAAA81-68L0%0.0
11-18Stetson (322.2)ASunA112-116W100%0.0
11-20Iowa St. (31.7)B12A130-63L0%0.0
11-23Arizona St. (165.8)P12A127-110L0%0.0
11-28Presbyterian (321.5)BSthH97-83W100%0.0
12-2Colgate (231.7)PatH0-035%-4.7
12-3USC Upstate (277.8)ASunH0-049%-0.3
12-4Campbell (309.0)BSthH0-057%2.0
12-17Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCA0-01%-27.6
12-19UMBC (212.5)AEA0-018%-11.2
12-28UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCH0-020%-9.9
12-31Furman (185.5)SCA0-011%-14.7
1-2Wofford (257.2)SCA0-017%-11.4
1-5East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCH0-06%-18.5
1-7VMI (316.6)SCH0-054%1.3
1-11Chattanooga (104.3)SCA0-05%-20.2
1-14Samford (178.5)SCH0-023%-8.7
1-19Western Carolina (291.4)SCA0-042%-2.5
1-21UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCA0-09%-16.1
1-28Mercer (163.6)SCA0-010%-15.4
2-2Wofford (257.2)SCH0-033%-5.2
2-4Furman (185.5)SCH0-024%-8.5
2-9East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCA0-02%-24.7
2-11VMI (316.6)SCA0-034%-4.8
2-18Mercer (163.6)SCH0-022%-9.2
2-22Western Carolina (291.4)SCH0-062%3.7
2-25Samford (178.5)SCA0-011%-14.9
2-27Chattanooga (104.3)SCH0-012%-14.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
The CitadelSC28.6026.4452.6326.171.51-12.60
VMISC0.834.670.0018.39-0.83-2.95
FurmanSC0.834.6120.0046.92-0.50-0.28
SamfordSC0.004.6157.1453.800.000.35
Western CarolinaSC0.004.6116.6716.80-0.00-3.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.834.6166.6756.360.280.59
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.5883.3379.570.002.71
MercerSC0.004.5850.0050.750.000.07
WoffordSC0.004.570.0030.41-0.00-1.79
ChattanoogaSC0.004.5766.6768.140.001.66
PresbyterianBSth10.002.0840.0028.18-2.00-0.91
CampbellBSth0.002.0725.0033.16-0.00-0.70
USC UpstateASun0.621.9833.3337.70-0.21-0.49
StetsonASun10.001.8833.3329.31-3.33-0.78
Virginia TechACC0.001.8885.7161.670.000.44
College of CharlestonCAA10.001.8857.1455.001.430.19
ColgatePat0.001.8520.0040.48-0.00-0.35
UMBCAE0.001.8280.0054.300.000.16
Arizona St.P1210.001.7950.0033.920.00-0.57
Iowa St.B1210.001.7966.6767.903.330.64
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.3550.0064.840.000.10
RadfordBSth0.710.2933.3336.31-0.24-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2928.5730.29-0.00-0.11
High PointBSth0.000.2950.0051.260.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2625.0038.72-0.00-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2620.0048.38-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.2640.0050.71-0.000.00
NavyPat0.620.2528.5743.62-0.27-0.03
Miami FLACC0.710.2171.4365.740.310.07
WinthropBSth0.000.1960.0070.500.000.08
West VirginiaB120.000.1983.3380.550.000.11
NJITASun0.000.1642.8650.32-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1657.1447.320.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1625.0034.47-0.00-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.620.1628.5739.44-0.27-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.710.1675.0047.510.36-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1583.3377.170.000.08
LongwoodBSth0.000.1325.0024.66-0.00-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1350.0071.330.000.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1357.1459.480.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.1314.2933.07-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.1314.2931.71-0.00-0.05
VermontAE0.000.1362.5071.630.000.06
DaytonA100.000.1366.6772.440.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.1383.3359.600.000.02
TCUB120.000.12100.0059.480.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0082.550.000.08
Wake ForestACC0.620.1271.4352.370.270.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1266.6753.460.000.01
DavidsonA100.710.1283.3368.880.480.05
RichmondA100.000.1057.1448.600.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.1050.0047.560.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.1050.0060.380.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.1042.8640.94-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.1016.6725.61-0.00-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.0983.3355.200.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0966.6739.720.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0971.4349.770.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0985.7180.010.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0957.1448.860.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0916.6731.91-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.710.090.0023.46-0.71-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.0983.3361.150.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.090.0028.15-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0054.490.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.830.0940.0055.44-0.170.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0983.3356.560.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.0971.4359.850.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.710.0985.7180.960.510.06
Florida St.ACC0.000.0985.7162.410.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.710.090.0024.19-0.71-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0971.4368.100.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0712.5022.55-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0750.0057.480.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0716.6733.82-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0725.0040.81-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.02
Boise St.MWC1.460.0650.0058.980.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.710.0612.5048.98-0.54-0.00
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer1.340.0683.3374.620.890.03
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0614.2928.66-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.710.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.710.0316.6733.69-0.48-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.710.03100.0091.060.710.02
Indiana St.MVC0.710.0333.3346.81-0.24-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
VillanovaBE0.620.03100.0083.120.620.02
Cal PolyBW0.710.0333.3335.92-0.24-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
KentuckySEC0.710.03100.0086.250.710.02
Northern IowaMVC0.710.0340.0057.49-0.140.00
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.710.0325.0040.37-0.36-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
TulaneAmer0.710.0314.2926.81-0.51-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01