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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:130.5
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:287
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-549.80.04%
22-650.70.28%
21-762.01.58%
20-875.64.64%
19-989.710.12%
18-10106.316.96%
17-11123.621.50%
16-12142.019.21%
15-13161.214.08%
14-14180.97.37%
13-15202.12.94%
12-16222.41.06%
11-17245.20.17%
10-18267.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Buffalo (41.1)MACA69-67L0%0.0
11-17Idaho (201.4)BSkyA82-77L0%0.0
11-21North Dakota (268.0)BSkyH74-72W100%0.0
11-30Florida Gulf Coast (98.1)ASunN58-71L0%0.0
12-6UMKC (276.8)WACH81-61W100%0.0
12-9Saint Louis (262.7)A10A55-62W100%0.0
12-13Idaho (201.4)BSkyH87-85W100%0.0
12-18Idaho St. (313.1)BSkyN75-72W100%0.0
12-19Cal St. Bakersfield (323.0)WACN49-53W100%0.0
12-20Utah St. (192.3)MWCA65-68W100%0.0
12-23Utah (12.1)P12A0-03%-21.8
12-28Northern Iowa (25.6)MVCA0-09%-15.8
1-2Denver (175.0)SumA0-036%-4.2
1-4North Dakota St. (175.5)SumA0-040%-3.1
1-7Western Illinois (291.4)SumH0-086%12.8
1-10Nebraska Omaha (200.0)SumA0-038%-3.6
1-14IUPUI (283.6)SumH0-084%11.8
1-17South Dakota (260.3)SumH0-076%8.4
1-21IPFW (191.7)SumH0-066%4.8
1-24Oral Roberts (216.3)SumA0-047%-0.9
1-28Nebraska Omaha (200.0)SumH0-066%4.8
1-31Denver (175.0)SumH0-064%4.2
2-5IPFW (191.7)SumA0-038%-3.5
2-7IUPUI (283.6)SumA0-062%3.4
2-14North Dakota St. (175.5)SumH0-067%5.2
2-18Western Illinois (291.4)SumA0-065%4.4
2-21Oral Roberts (216.3)SumH0-074%7.4
2-28South Dakota (260.3)SumA0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum28.3326.4875.0063.5414.177.17
DenverSum0.284.5545.4555.51-0.030.50
Nebraska OmahaSum0.254.5444.4455.92-0.030.54
Western IllinoisSum0.624.5337.5032.51-0.16-1.59
South DakotaSum0.214.5227.2738.41-0.09-1.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.314.5055.5656.000.030.54
IUPUISum0.004.4927.2728.98-0.00-1.89
Oral RobertsSum0.004.4840.0044.41-0.00-0.50
IPFWSum0.004.4750.0054.720.000.42
IdahoBSky10.003.7433.3352.17-3.330.16
North DakotaBSky5.002.0828.5734.63-2.14-0.64
Idaho St.BSky5.442.0712.5029.95-4.08-0.83
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.511.9718.1834.62-3.50-0.61
UMKCWAC5.001.9122.2242.30-2.78-0.29
Northern IowaMVC0.311.8890.9182.810.261.23
Utah St.MWC5.491.8560.0049.981.10-0.00
UtahP120.311.8280.0079.930.191.09
BuffaloMAC5.001.7975.0069.882.500.71
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.001.7975.0069.012.500.68
Saint LouisA105.001.7966.6734.411.67-0.56
MontanaBSky0.000.3925.0052.35-0.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.3920.0026.07-0.00-0.19
Weber St.BSky0.230.3237.5044.33-0.06-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.560.2833.3340.63-0.19-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.510.2830.0038.57-0.20-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.210.2650.0042.090.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2360.0076.250.000.12
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2342.8641.81-0.00-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2337.5056.46-0.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.2230.0031.48-0.10-0.08
AkronMAC0.000.2060.0056.150.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.620.2033.3343.14-0.21-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1936.3648.28-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1914.2929.82-0.00-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.000.190.0011.59-0.00-0.15
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1933.3361.74-0.000.04
SeattleWAC0.000.1933.3343.83-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1933.3337.22-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.560.1936.3645.11-0.15-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.250.1830.0029.75-0.10-0.07
Washington St.P120.900.1640.0028.13-0.18-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.1630.0028.65-0.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.230.1660.0061.600.050.04
StanfordP120.000.1566.6758.320.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1566.6749.560.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.250.1533.3334.30-0.08-0.05
DrakeMVC0.310.1518.1819.46-0.20-0.09
MemphisAmer0.000.1460.0062.070.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1310.0018.05-0.00-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1333.3328.79-0.00-0.06
StetsonASun0.000.1310.0027.17-0.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.1333.3362.72-0.100.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1375.0058.160.000.02
PurdueB100.000.1366.6759.370.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.620.1377.7872.890.350.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0055.890.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1311.1125.48-0.00-0.06
WyomingMWC0.000.1280.0073.540.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1225.0037.03-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.250.1287.5085.480.190.09
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1277.7872.060.000.05
RichmondA100.000.1260.0057.700.000.02
PacificWCC0.280.1055.5638.270.03-0.02
IowaB100.000.1066.6759.420.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.1012.5026.89-0.19-0.05
UC DavisBW0.850.1087.5068.000.640.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.1063.6467.210.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1050.0057.820.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.620.1042.8633.27-0.09-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1060.0048.980.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.250.0963.6440.190.07-0.02
MissouriSEC0.250.0940.0032.26-0.05-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0977.7856.220.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.210.0927.2729.17-0.09-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.280.0972.7362.220.130.02
San Diego St.MWC0.210.0972.7372.580.090.04
XavierBE0.000.0972.7367.590.000.03
OhioMAC0.280.0942.8637.71-0.04-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0078.210.000.05
USCP120.230.0960.0036.410.05-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.0945.4543.23-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0960.0043.160.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.250.0933.3334.04-0.08-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0933.3330.21-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.250.0954.5544.930.02-0.01
VCUA100.000.0972.7375.740.000.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0733.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0718.1820.86-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0720.0045.74-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0757.1457.100.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0737.5041.94-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0750.0046.690.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0780.0053.260.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0745.4549.62-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0742.8626.99-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.0790.9179.980.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0781.8273.180.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0722.2238.44-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.0737.5063.95-0.070.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0017.69-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.0640.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0637.5049.31-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6744.720.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0670.0062.710.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.620.000.01
MassachusettsA100.280.0654.5552.490.030.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.9169.030.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.210.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.060.0023.69-0.25-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0082.630.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5548.490.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0663.6464.880.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5745.89-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.230.0670.0068.340.090.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0618.1822.49-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.000.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.00-0.00-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0052.140.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0037.64-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0620.0046.47-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0662.5058.080.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0655.5673.740.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.008.00-0.00-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.440.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.550.000.03
UCLAP120.000.0666.6754.480.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.280.0655.5662.150.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.480.0644.4437.40-0.05-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.530.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0680.0069.770.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.06-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0068.770.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5072.070.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.74-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0675.0058.760.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.260.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.670.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.310.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0031.89-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.280.0677.7865.110.150.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0655.5652.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.280.0344.4450.41-0.030.00
FurmanSC0.280.0322.2231.81-0.15-0.01
Green BayHorz0.280.0375.0077.010.140.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0069.200.000.01
MaristMAAC0.280.039.0916.15-0.23-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0051.780.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.280.0350.0054.170.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.0318.1837.71-0.13-0.01
DelawareCAA0.210.030.008.56-0.21-0.03
HawaiiBW0.210.0366.6754.470.070.00
High PointBSth0.210.0366.6761.790.070.01
MinnesotaB100.310.0380.0067.830.190.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.250.0342.8637.83-0.04-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.250.0380.0076.450.150.02
Iowa St.B120.250.0390.0065.480.200.01
KansasB120.000.0390.0070.680.000.01
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.440.000.00
SamfordSC0.250.0333.3330.28-0.08-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.0344.4436.80-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0344.4449.14-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.24-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.710.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0388.8977.320.000.02
DrexelCAA0.280.0322.2235.90-0.15-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0066.220.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.11-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6765.500.000.01
KentuckySEC0.280.03100.0096.290.280.03
La SalleA100.000.0354.5552.730.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.27-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.280.0312.5029.51-0.21-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0363.6442.810.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0330.0039.59-0.11-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6778.020.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.520.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.280.0355.5655.710.030.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.69-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.840.000.02