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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:29.0
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:133
Current SOS:133
Current Record:24-7
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:36
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-729.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH85-68W100%0.0
11-19Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA67-83W100%0.0
11-21TCU (174.0)B12A67-76W100%0.0
11-24Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndN68-92W100%0.0
11-25Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzN77-66W100%0.0
11-28UMKC (286.0)WACA64-57L0%0.0
12-8Minnesota (257.0)B10A70-84W100%0.0
12-13UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH86-68W100%0.0
12-16Texas Tech (36.0)B12A79-67L0%0.0
12-19Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA52-56W100%0.0
12-22Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA99-95L0%0.0
12-27Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAN65-61W100%0.0
1-1Denver (188.0)SumH68-59W100%0.0
1-3Western Illinois (262.0)SumH63-59W100%0.0
1-7IUPUI (189.0)SumA74-67L0%0.0
1-14IPFW (71.0)SumH92-76W100%0.0
1-16North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA68-57L0%0.0
1-21Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA74-86W100%0.0
1-23South Dakota (197.0)SumA75-79W100%0.0
1-28Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH87-76W100%0.0
1-30Denver (188.0)SumA56-67W100%0.0
2-6IUPUI (189.0)SumH80-58W100%0.0
2-10Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA96-92L0%0.0
2-13South Dakota (197.0)SumH85-68W100%0.0
2-18IPFW (71.0)SumA91-79L0%0.0
2-20Western Illinois (262.0)SumA67-87W100%0.0
2-25North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH71-59W100%0.0
2-27Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH73-65W100%0.0
3-5Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH73-70W100%0.0
3-7Denver (188.0)SumH54-53W100%0.0
3-8North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH67-59W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum26.6526.6583.9783.9718.1118.11
DenverSum5.835.8357.1457.140.830.83
North Dakota St.Sum5.835.8360.7160.711.251.25
Oral RobertsSum5.715.7146.1546.15-0.44-0.44
Nebraska OmahaSum4.314.3155.5655.560.480.48
IPFWSum4.294.2972.4172.411.921.92
South DakotaSum4.294.2942.8642.86-0.61-0.61
IUPUISum4.244.2437.9337.93-1.02-1.02
Western IllinoisSum4.134.1331.8231.82-1.50-1.50
Weber St.BSky3.303.3075.8675.861.711.71
MinnesotaB101.781.7826.6726.67-0.83-0.83
UMKCWAC1.751.7529.6329.63-0.71-0.71
TCUB121.741.7437.5037.50-0.44-0.44
Texas TechB121.711.7160.0060.000.340.34
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.671.6757.1457.140.240.24
Illinois St.MVC1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
Houston BaptistSlnd1.661.6646.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Cleveland St.Horz1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Missouri St.MVC0.300.3038.7138.71-0.07-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.260.2648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.260.2648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.240.2427.5927.59-0.11-0.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
IllinoisB100.210.2144.1244.12-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.190.1943.3343.33-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
Iowa St.B120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
FIUCUSA0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1614.2914.29-0.11-0.11
South AlabamaSB0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.150.153.453.45-0.14-0.14
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
DetroitHorz0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1418.5218.52-0.09-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
CreightonBE0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1179.3179.310.070.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00