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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:160.0
Current RPI:160
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:154
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:170
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16160.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11California (53.0)P12A82-53L0%0.0
11-14UC Irvine (135.0)BWA73-58L0%0.0
11-19Wyoming (152.0)MWCA77-67L0%0.0
11-21Idaho (209.0)BSkyA96-89L0%0.0
11-25UC Irvine (135.0)BWN52-63L0%0.0
11-26East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCN59-71L0%0.0
11-27Milwaukee (256.0)HorzN81-58W100%0.0
12-3UMKC (184.0)WACH77-68W100%0.0
12-7Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA86-58L0%0.0
12-10Idaho (209.0)BSkyH80-77W100%0.0
12-17Murray St. (230.0)OVCH88-84W100%0.0
12-19Drake (314.0)MVCA75-83W100%0.0
12-22Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA89-67L0%0.0
12-28North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH69-80L0%0.0
12-31South Dakota (123.0)SumH73-72W100%0.0
1-4Western Illinois (325.0)SumA82-74L0%0.0
1-7Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH93-101L0%0.0
1-12Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA94-88L0%0.0
1-18IUPUI (218.0)SumA85-83L0%0.0
1-21Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH77-67W100%0.0
1-25Denver (207.0)SumA91-82L0%0.0
1-28Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA84-88W100%0.0
2-1Western Illinois (325.0)SumH98-65W100%0.0
2-4Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH74-67W100%0.0
2-8North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA82-65L0%0.0
2-11South Dakota (123.0)SumA91-89L0%0.0
2-15IUPUI (218.0)SumH81-67W100%0.0
2-18Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA89-97W100%0.0
2-25Denver (207.0)SumH88-64W100%0.0
3-5Denver (207.0)SumH83-73W100%0.0
3-6South Dakota (123.0)SumN71-74W100%0.0
3-7Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH79-77W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum26.6826.6851.6151.610.860.86
Nebraska OmahaSum5.695.6957.1457.140.810.81
South DakotaSum5.675.6767.8667.862.022.02
DenverSum5.585.5855.5655.560.620.62
IUPUISum4.174.1739.2939.29-0.89-0.89
Western IllinoisSum4.124.1220.8320.83-2.40-2.40
Fort WayneSum4.114.1161.5461.540.950.95
North Dakota St.Sum4.084.0857.6957.690.630.63
Oral RobertsSum4.034.0319.2319.23-2.48-2.48
UC IrvineBW3.203.2054.8454.840.310.31
IdahoBSky3.123.1255.5655.560.350.35
UMKCWAC1.771.7748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC1.771.7721.4321.43-1.01-1.01
MilwaukeeHorz1.691.6930.3030.30-0.67-0.67
WyomingMWC1.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
Northern IowaMVC1.691.6942.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Wichita St.MVC1.671.6787.5087.501.251.25
CaliforniaP121.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
East Tennessee St.SC1.631.6377.4277.420.900.90
Murray St.OVC1.591.5946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
MontanaBSky0.370.3750.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.360.3646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.320.3250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.310.3181.2581.250.190.19
UC DavisBW0.300.3062.5062.500.080.08
North DakotaBSky0.250.2567.8667.860.090.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.2551.7251.720.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.220.2222.2222.22-0.12-0.12
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.2137.9337.93-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.1964.5264.520.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.190.1956.6756.670.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1744.4444.44-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1718.5218.52-0.11-0.11
Miami OHMAC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1612.9012.90-0.12-0.12
Air ForceMWC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
USCP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Little RockSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
AmericanPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01