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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:175.7
Current RPI:326
Expected SOS:193
Current SOS:325
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:121



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-629.00.01%
21-753.30.15%
20-868.50.40%
19-981.61.43%
18-1099.13.68%
17-11116.97.50%
16-12135.512.35%
15-13154.515.87%
14-14174.917.87%
13-15195.715.60%
12-16215.311.85%
11-17237.57.56%
10-18256.43.45%
9-19275.41.45%
8-20292.80.63%
7-21312.30.15%
6-22331.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Buffalo (80.3)MACA69-67L0%0.0
11-17Idaho (242.1)BSkyA82-77L0%0.0
11-21North Dakota (231.8)BSkyH74-72W100%0.0
11-30Florida Gulf Coast (97.7)ASunN0-034%-4.9
12-6UMKC (230.0)WACH0-071%6.8
12-9Saint Louis (120.9)A10A0-025%-8.1
12-13Idaho (242.1)BSkyH0-075%8.0
12-18Idaho St. (308.8)BSkyN0-078%9.2
12-19Cal St. Bakersfield (301.3)WACN0-073%7.2
12-20Utah St. (119.0)MWCA0-025%-8.0
12-23Utah (27.7)P12A0-06%-18.4
12-28Northern Iowa (60.2)MVCA0-016%-11.9
1-2Denver (106.6)SumA0-025%-7.9
1-4North Dakota St. (224.3)SumA0-050%0.1
1-7Western Illinois (283.5)SumH0-079%9.6
1-10Nebraska Omaha (237.4)SumA0-048%-0.5
1-14IUPUI (246.6)SumH0-079%9.7
1-17South Dakota (256.8)SumH0-072%7.0
1-21IPFW (165.7)SumH0-056%1.9
1-24Oral Roberts (166.9)SumA0-036%-4.2
1-28Nebraska Omaha (237.4)SumH0-071%6.7
1-31Denver (106.6)SumH0-048%-0.7
2-5IPFW (165.7)SumA0-033%-5.2
2-7IUPUI (246.6)SumA0-058%2.5
2-14North Dakota St. (224.3)SumH0-073%7.2
2-18Western Illinois (283.5)SumA0-058%2.4
2-21Oral Roberts (166.9)SumH0-060%3.0
2-28South Dakota (256.8)SumA0-050%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum36.1126.5033.3352.51-12.041.33
DenverSum0.004.5666.6764.990.001.37
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.5566.6746.870.00-0.28
Western IllinoisSum0.004.5433.3333.65-0.00-1.49
South DakotaSum0.004.530.0036.68-0.00-1.21
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.5150.0043.640.00-0.57
IUPUISum0.004.5050.0034.210.00-1.42
IPFWSum0.004.4866.6761.230.001.01
Oral RobertsSum0.004.4833.3347.95-0.00-0.18
IdahoBSky16.673.740.0044.75-16.67-0.39
North DakotaBSky16.672.080.0045.00-16.67-0.21
Idaho St.BSky0.002.070.0028.58-0.00-0.89
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.9720.0036.19-0.00-0.54
UMKCWAC0.001.9125.0047.03-0.00-0.11
Northern IowaMVC4.171.88100.0070.794.170.78
Utah St.MWC0.001.8575.0060.440.000.39
UtahP120.001.8266.6771.520.000.78
BuffaloMAC16.671.7950.0058.080.000.29
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.79100.0074.380.000.87
Saint LouisA100.001.7966.6756.420.000.23
MontanaBSky0.000.3933.3351.67-0.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.390.0021.27-0.00-0.22
Weber St.BSky0.000.3325.0053.38-0.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.28100.0031.710.00-0.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2866.6749.970.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.26100.0049.160.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2375.0074.330.000.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2350.0045.970.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.230.0050.64-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2033.3339.78-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.2075.0069.590.000.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2050.0052.390.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1940.0066.65-0.000.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1925.0057.73-0.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.190.0019.76-0.00-0.12
Chicago St.WAC0.000.190.0022.57-0.00-0.10
SeattleWAC0.000.1925.0044.61-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1950.0050.880.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1875.0047.380.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1650.0066.020.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.1633.3328.67-0.00-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.1666.6732.480.00-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1550.0063.110.000.04
StanfordP120.000.1575.0069.760.000.06
UNLVMWC0.000.1575.0051.180.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.150.0025.30-0.00-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1525.0035.54-0.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.140.0023.63-0.00-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1420.0025.79-0.00-0.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1450.0066.640.000.05
StetsonASun0.000.140.0033.27-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.130.0064.44-0.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.1375.0066.130.000.04
PurdueB100.000.1375.0062.270.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.1375.0063.510.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0045.710.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1325.0042.95-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.12100.0084.110.000.08
WyomingMWC0.000.12100.0066.880.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.12100.0063.550.000.03
RichmondA100.000.1266.6766.030.000.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1233.3346.31-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1033.3332.25-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.100.0044.98-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.1066.6753.640.000.01
IowaB100.000.1060.0064.030.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1050.0043.080.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.1066.6745.890.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0032.95-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.10100.0043.480.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC4.170.10100.0043.384.17-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1050.0035.180.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.1050.0055.630.000.01
XavierBE0.000.10100.0080.240.000.06
Kansas St.B120.000.0975.0057.780.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.090.0031.48-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0960.0056.230.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.09100.0084.910.000.07
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0064.710.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0920.0021.70-0.00-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0037.880.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0940.0050.60-0.000.00
USCP120.000.0940.0028.54-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0975.0067.590.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0940.0038.36-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0733.3346.01-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0720.0034.54-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.070.0043.29-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0029.61-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0055.80-0.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0766.6746.440.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0034.540.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0034.81-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0750.0054.870.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0051.910.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0720.0044.69-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0766.6758.810.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0054.250.000.01
TexasB120.000.07100.0079.170.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.0775.0058.430.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0055.490.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0780.0061.930.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0021.40-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6752.810.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0068.180.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.66-0.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0029.28-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0074.960.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0675.0056.870.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.990.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.140.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0640.0043.71-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6756.740.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.05-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.130.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0675.0072.970.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0054.620.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0033.57-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0039.25-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0047.400.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.80-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0059.320.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.470.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0064.210.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0018.96-0.00-0.04
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.700.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.070.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.960.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3322.95-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6753.410.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0058.710.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.170.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0633.3363.19-0.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.25-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.16-0.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6756.000.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.32-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6753.220.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0450.0043.570.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0433.3323.97-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0475.0073.930.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.040.0033.80-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0466.6751.570.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0029.26-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0020.52-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0360.0050.930.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.840.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6750.930.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0024.54-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6774.460.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.650.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0067.390.000.01
KansasB120.000.0366.6758.820.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0054.280.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0041.06-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0068.720.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0039.62-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3340.57-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0065.66-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6745.370.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.840.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.52-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.810.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0029.07-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3337.47-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.62-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.790.000.00
KentuckySEC2.780.03100.0087.982.780.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3324.20-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0042.83-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0065.370.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB2.780.0375.0056.391.390.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.620.000.02