South Dakota St.

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	58.0
Current RPI:	60
Expected SOS:	165
Current SOS:	163
Current Record:	17-6
Expected Record:	22-7
Current Conf Record:	11-2
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	38.16%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-1
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	88
Expected OOC SOS:	166

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-6	43.0	28.08%
22-7	56.1	41.01%
21-8	70.2	22.94%
20-9	84.0	6.89%
19-10	97.2	0.98%
18-11	113.1	0.09%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Western Michigan (175.4)	MAC	H	82-76	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Minnesota (64.5)	B10	A	71-55	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Georgia (132.1)	SEC	A	72-61	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Niagara (213.6)	MAAC	N	79-71	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Sam Houston St. (285.7)	Slnd	N	60-77	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Mercer (96.4)	ASun	A	61-74	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Nebraska (125.8)	B10	A	76-64	L	0%	0.0
12-1	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	A	93-97	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	A	66-67	W	100%	0.0
12-10	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	H	92-54	W	100%	0.0
12-15	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	A	89-70	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Washington (70.2)	P12	A	73-92	W	100%	0.0
12-28	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	94-58	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	H	76-64	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	A	68-75	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	A	97-75	L	0%	0.0
1-12	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	H	86-56	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	H	85-58	W	100%	0.0
1-21	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	A	88-91	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	A	92-87	L	0%	0.0
1-28	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	A	43-74	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	H	75-60	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	H	66-56	W	100%	0.0
2-9	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	A	0-0		87%	12.3
2-11	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	A	0-0		84%	10.8
2-15	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	H	0-0		75%	7.3
2-18	Buffalo (71.0)	MAC	H	0-0		65%	4.3
2-23	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	H	0-0		86%	11.8
2-25	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	H	0-0		91%	14.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Dakota St.	Sum	26.63	26.53	82.18	80.93	17.14	16.41
Western Illinois	Sum	3.29	4.58	55.56	51.92	0.37	0.18
North Dakota St.	Sum	3.29	4.57	65.00	67.60	0.99	1.61
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	3.17	4.53	36.36	37.20	-0.86	-1.16
Oakland	Sum	5.18	4.49	47.83	50.30	-0.23	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	3.09	4.47	27.78	30.76	-1.37	-1.72
Oral Roberts	Sum	5.14	4.46	83.33	82.89	3.43	2.94
IUPUI	Sum	3.06	4.46	36.36	37.84	-0.83	-1.08
Southern Utah	Sum	5.14	4.45	50.00	47.81	0.00	-0.20
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	5.13	4.44	36.84	34.86	-1.35	-1.35
North Dakota	GWC	4.56	3.71	31.25	40.54	-1.71	-0.70
Western Michigan	MAC	2.26	1.88	42.86	44.45	-0.32	-0.21
Nebraska	B10	2.28	1.85	47.62	43.02	-0.11	-0.26
Minnesota	B10	2.28	1.85	69.57	61.51	0.89	0.43
Niagara	MAAC	2.27	1.82	37.50	41.71	-0.57	-0.30
Mercer	ASun	2.32	1.81	75.00	74.71	1.16	0.90
Buffalo	MAC	0.04	1.78	68.42	67.74	0.02	0.63
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.26	1.78	27.78	31.00	-1.00	-0.68
Georgia	SEC	2.22	1.75	42.86	39.14	-0.32	-0.38
Washington	P12	2.17	1.72	72.73	68.89	0.99	0.65
Canisius	MAAC	0.21	0.28	17.39	19.76	-0.13	-0.17
Utah Valley	GWC	0.25	0.25	54.55	57.71	0.02	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.21	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.22	0.20	9.09	12.82	-0.18	-0.15
Michigan	B10	0.19	0.18	69.57	66.33	0.07	0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.24	0.18	65.22	63.55	0.07	0.05
Iowa	B10	0.24	0.18	54.17	49.41	0.02	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.17	77.27	73.50	0.08	0.08
Wisconsin	B10	0.15	0.17	75.00	74.01	0.07	0.08
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.17	0.17	25.00	28.48	-0.08	-0.07
Purdue	B10	0.20	0.15	62.50	60.78	0.05	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.24	0.15	65.22	63.69	0.07	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.15	81.82	77.18	0.09	0.08
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.15	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.15	68.18	67.98	0.00	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.15	28.57	34.11	-0.06	-0.05
Southern California	P12	0.19	0.14	25.00	25.08	-0.10	-0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.24	0.14	31.82	32.98	-0.09	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.14	33.33	38.39	-0.04	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.14	19.05	24.60	-0.07	-0.07
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.13	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.06
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.13	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.17	0.13	24.00	24.86	-0.09	-0.06
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.13	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.13	81.82	81.02	0.11	0.08
Troy	SB	0.20	0.13	28.57	30.17	-0.08	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.20	0.13	0.00	5.31	-0.20	-0.11
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.12	30.43	31.40	-0.04	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.12	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.12	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.20	0.12	57.14	60.72	0.03	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.12	20.83	23.73	-0.05	-0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.12	43.48	44.26	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.12	69.57	61.84	0.05	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.11	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.11	45.45	44.56	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.11	0.10	13.64	16.23	-0.08	-0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.09	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.09	30.00	34.18	-0.02	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.09	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.09	5.26	7.29	-0.04	-0.08
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.09	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.09	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.09	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.14	0.09	47.83	47.36	-0.01	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.09	69.57	64.49	0.04	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.09	69.57	70.16	0.05	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.57	65.18	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.09	66.67	62.69	0.05	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.73	0.05	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	57.79	0.03	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.08	81.82	81.50	0.08	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.08	79.17	80.14	0.08	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.08	56.52	54.88	0.02	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.07	33.33	34.54	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.07	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.07	28.57	29.05	-0.02	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.07	78.26	78.42	0.07	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.07	42.86	43.52	-0.00	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.07	71.43	73.99	0.05	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.07	30.00	33.22	-0.05	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.07	40.91	44.29	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.07	76.19	70.71	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.07	14.29	17.12	-0.07	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.07	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.07	4.35	9.74	-0.09	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.06	8.33	10.84	-0.08	-0.05
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.06	85.71	78.11	0.07	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.39	20.75	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.06	80.00	76.71	0.06	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.06	65.22	62.67	0.03	0.02
Samford	SC	0.10	0.06	33.33	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.04	0.06	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.46	-0.01	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.00	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.02	0.03
California	P12	0.10	0.06	75.00	74.62	0.05	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.06	82.61	79.93	0.06	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.06	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.09	0.06	45.45	47.20	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.02	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.06	14.29	14.31	-0.06	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.06	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.00	0.06	62.50	62.07	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.04	0.06	20.83	23.61	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.06	96.00	93.53	0.05	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.06	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.04	0.06	48.00	48.07	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.06	63.64	63.17	0.01	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.06	40.91	39.60	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.06	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.06	30.43	29.57	-0.03	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.88	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.06	34.78	34.75	-0.03	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.04	0.06	8.33	10.90	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.07	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.06	20.83	25.85	-0.05	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.06	33.33	37.11	-0.03	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.06	78.26	74.29	0.05	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.06	68.00	69.08	0.03	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.04	0.06	34.78	33.44	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.06	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.06	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.04	0.06	40.00	39.70	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.04	0.06	43.48	45.03	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.06	38.10	37.80	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.03	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.00	0.03	75.00	76.02	0.00	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.77	-0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	82.61	81.41	0.04	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.00	0.03	36.84	41.47	-0.00	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.00	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.00	0.03	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.51	-0.03	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.03	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.03	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	84.00	82.62	0.03	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.04	0.03	27.27	35.05	-0.02	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.00	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.04	0.03	9.52	13.17	-0.04	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.75	-0.03	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	22.22	32.99	-0.03	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.04	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.03	55.56	58.02	0.01	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.00	-0.03	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.03	0.02	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.04	0.03	45.45	45.69	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.03	79.17	78.05	0.03	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.04	0.03	20.83	22.81	-0.03	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.04	0.03	13.04	14.47	-0.03	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.61	-0.02	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.04	0.03	56.52	57.14	0.01	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.04	0.03	21.74	22.75	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.00	0.03	61.54	63.84	0.00	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.00