live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:254.3
Current RPI:313
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:204
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:98



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11114.00.08%
17-12143.10.29%
16-13155.81.06%
15-14176.22.93%
14-15197.36.49%
13-16216.411.04%
12-17236.716.42%
11-18254.518.43%
10-19272.116.79%
9-20287.712.87%
8-21301.38.05%
7-22312.53.59%
6-23323.31.49%
5-24328.60.39%
4-25336.20.06%
3-26345.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11California (68.2)P12A82-53L0%0.0
11-14UC Irvine (155.6)BWA73-58L0%0.0
11-19Wyoming (182.2)MWCA77-67L0%0.0
11-21Idaho (235.9)BSkyA96-89L0%0.0
11-25UC Irvine (155.6)BWH52-63L0%0.0
11-26East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCH59-71L0%0.0
11-27Milwaukee (251.6)HorzH81-58W100%0.0
12-3UMKC (146.9)WACH0-055%1.4
12-7Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCA0-012%-13.9
12-10Idaho (235.9)BSkyH0-061%3.3
12-17Murray St. (139.5)OVCH0-040%-3.0
12-19Drake (306.7)MVCA0-052%0.6
12-22Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA0-01%-26.7
12-28North Dakota St. (130.6)SumH0-042%-2.3
12-31South Dakota (218.7)SumH0-060%3.2
1-4Western Illinois (333.0)SumA0-062%3.5
1-7Nebraska Omaha (183.8)SumH0-050%-0.0
1-12Oral Roberts (305.9)SumA0-058%2.5
1-18IUPUI (194.4)SumA0-031%-6.0
1-21Fort Wayne (119.2)SumH0-035%-4.6
1-25Denver (270.4)SumA0-044%-1.7
1-28Nebraska Omaha (183.8)SumA0-030%-6.2
2-1Western Illinois (333.0)SumH0-079%9.7
2-4Oral Roberts (305.9)SumH0-077%8.7
2-8North Dakota St. (130.6)SumA0-024%-8.5
2-11South Dakota (218.7)SumA0-040%-3.0
2-15IUPUI (194.4)SumH0-050%0.1
2-18Fort Wayne (119.2)SumA0-018%-10.8
2-25Denver (270.4)SumH0-065%4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum30.0026.5210.3436.78-23.79-7.01
South DakotaSum0.004.3957.1447.040.00-0.26
DenverSum0.714.3633.3340.79-0.24-0.80
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.3633.3347.87-0.00-0.19
Western IllinoisSum0.004.340.0022.08-0.00-2.42
IUPUISum0.004.3328.5746.82-0.00-0.28
Oral RobertsSum0.004.330.0018.28-0.00-2.74
Fort WayneSum0.004.3266.6770.750.001.79
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.3250.0061.410.000.99
UC IrvineBW16.073.5433.3351.34-5.360.09
IdahoBSky7.143.4525.0049.38-3.57-0.04
DrakeMVC0.001.930.0020.31-0.00-1.15
UMKCWAC0.001.9171.4356.450.000.25
MilwaukeeHorz8.631.8840.0034.29-1.73-0.59
Northern IowaMVC0.001.8740.0056.37-0.000.24
Wichita St.MVC0.001.8571.4385.600.001.32
WyomingMWC7.741.8450.0046.690.00-0.12
CaliforniaP128.751.8180.0062.365.250.45
East Tennessee St.SC8.631.8180.0080.015.181.09
Murray St.OVC0.001.7542.8661.97-0.000.42
MontanaBSky0.710.3414.2947.44-0.51-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.3450.0062.460.000.08
Illinois St.MVC0.000.3450.0066.170.000.11
UC DavisBW0.000.3157.1448.410.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.3175.0064.960.000.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2766.6754.420.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2416.6730.02-0.00-0.10
North DakotaBSky0.000.2233.3353.29-0.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2133.3340.39-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.2150.0046.670.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2050.0043.490.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1950.0033.010.00-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1940.0041.65-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.190.0023.26-0.00-0.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1966.6751.460.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.1920.0054.94-0.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.710.1840.0037.44-0.14-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.180.0021.30-0.00-0.10
DetroitHorz0.600.180.0019.51-0.60-0.11
BradleyMVC0.000.1850.0029.280.00-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1833.3346.81-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.180.0033.44-0.00-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.180.0033.43-0.00-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1650.0038.430.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.1533.3335.92-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.150.0039.35-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0017.30-0.00-0.09
Kansas St.B120.000.1385.7155.890.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.1383.3362.840.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1314.2929.81-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1314.2928.15-0.00-0.06
Little RockSB0.710.1360.0057.900.140.02
XavierBE0.000.13100.0074.800.000.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1216.6740.71-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1266.6758.420.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1250.0055.850.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1257.1440.590.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.1275.0059.100.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1283.3351.920.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0042.710.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1233.3343.64-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1271.4368.100.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.890.1250.0053.560.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1260.0058.950.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1233.3348.71-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.1283.3378.430.000.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1216.6743.29-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1250.0050.940.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.1285.7170.990.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0024.77-0.00-0.05
Washington St.P120.000.0950.0036.820.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0076.650.000.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0960.0039.610.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0942.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0971.4368.970.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0971.4346.010.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0975.0054.320.000.01
DePaulBE0.600.0980.0035.960.36-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0983.3361.490.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0039.200.00-0.02
USCP120.000.09100.0075.380.000.05
NevadaMWC0.000.0975.0070.470.000.04
PacificWCC1.610.0950.0049.010.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0957.1436.050.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0971.4355.750.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.600.0957.1459.480.090.02
AmericanPat0.000.0716.6735.65-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0771.4374.450.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.710.0642.8645.30-0.10-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.0625.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.710.0650.0058.600.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0058.980.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0671.4358.670.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.600.0675.0074.990.300.03
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0666.6769.810.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.05
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.890.0637.5036.24-0.22-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
FordhamA100.600.0357.1443.680.09-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.600.0383.3377.170.400.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.600.0340.0067.95-0.120.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.600.0385.7159.740.430.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.600.0350.0056.430.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00