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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:138.0
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:205
Current Record:16-12
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:11-5
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12138.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8San Diego (156.0)WCCA74-70L0%0.0
11-9Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCN98-89L0%0.0
11-14Montana (183.0)BSkyH69-77L0%0.0
11-21Texas Tech (121.0)B12A68-54L0%0.0
11-25Howard (323.0)MEACH77-65W100%0.0
11-26Lehigh (236.0)PatH74-61W100%0.0
11-29UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA83-64L0%0.0
12-1Stanford (41.0)P12A92-60L0%0.0
12-10Minnesota (50.0)B10A75-59L0%0.0
12-14Belmont (57.0)OVCH85-72W100%0.0
12-21North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA70-77W100%0.0
12-28UMKC (248.0)WACA60-65W100%0.0
1-9IUPUI (322.0)SumA70-86W100%0.0
1-11IPFW (115.0)SumA82-75L0%0.0
1-16Western Illinois (290.0)SumH64-55W100%0.0
1-18Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH71-80L0%0.0
1-25North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH77-85L0%0.0
1-30Denver (139.0)SumA73-74W100%0.0
2-1South Dakota (255.0)SumA68-70W100%0.0
2-6IPFW (115.0)SumH79-51W100%0.0
2-8IUPUI (322.0)SumH83-59W100%0.0
2-13Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA60-77W100%0.0
2-15Western Illinois (290.0)SumA50-62W100%0.0
2-22North Dakota St. (35.0)SumA74-59L0%0.0
2-27Denver (139.0)SumH78-69W100%0.0
3-1South Dakota (255.0)SumH75-61W100%0.0
3-9Western Illinois (290.0)SumN71-50W100%0.0
3-10IPFW (115.0)SumN60-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum26.5426.5460.0060.005.315.31
IPFWSum6.326.3267.8667.862.262.26
Western IllinoisSum6.206.2029.1729.17-2.58-2.58
DenverSum4.644.6453.5753.570.330.33
North Dakota St.Sum4.624.6276.9276.922.492.49
IUPUISum4.544.5411.1111.11-3.53-3.53
South DakotaSum4.504.5036.0036.00-1.26-1.26
Nebraska OmahaSum4.504.5048.0048.00-0.18-0.18
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.911.9166.6766.670.640.64
North DakotaBSky1.911.9150.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB101.911.9158.0658.060.310.31
San DiegoWCC1.881.8844.8344.83-0.19-0.19
MontanaBSky1.871.8751.8551.850.070.07
UMKCWAC1.851.8535.7135.71-0.53-0.53
BelmontOVC1.851.8574.1974.190.890.89
Loyola MarymountWCC1.851.8536.6736.67-0.49-0.49
StanfordP121.851.8562.5062.500.460.46
LehighPat1.811.8145.1645.16-0.18-0.18
HowardMEAC1.791.7920.0020.00-1.07-1.07
Texas TechB121.791.7941.9441.94-0.29-0.29
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
IdahoWAC0.260.2645.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.2562.0762.070.060.06
PacificWCC0.250.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
Utah St.MWC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
HawaiiBW0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
SeattleWAC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Southern UtahBSky0.150.153.573.57-0.14-0.14
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
NorthwesternB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
TroySB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
IowaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Kansas St.B120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
Miami OHMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
UCLAP120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.090.0986.2186.210.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
ColgatePat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01