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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:65.2
Current RPI:58
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:144
Current Record:13-5
Expected Record:20-7
Current Conf Record:5-0
Expected Conf Record:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-541.75.92%
21-650.421.01%
20-760.232.54%
19-872.424.78%
18-987.412.00%
17-10105.83.19%
16-11126.60.47%
15-12148.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UC Irvine (176.3)BWH65-54W100%0.0
11-14Alabama St. (341.4)SWACH94-63W100%0.0
11-17Kansas (5.9)B12A98-64L0%0.0
11-20Wyoming (100.7)MWCN77-65L0%0.0
11-21Iowa (156.8)B10N80-72W100%0.0
11-22Buffalo (33.5)MACN80-94W100%0.0
11-28Mississippi (116.0)SECA97-99W100%0.0
12-2Missouri St. (58.1)MVCN53-73L0%0.0
12-5Wichita St. (18.0)AmerA95-85L0%0.0
12-12North Dakota (215.3)BSkyH99-63W100%0.0
12-15Colorado (83.8)P12A112-103L0%0.0
12-19Drake (160.6)MVCH87-74W100%0.0
12-22UMKC (262.9)WACA60-85W100%0.0
1-3North Dakota St. (167.4)SumA80-87W100%0.0
1-6Nebraska Omaha (250.1)SumA88-101W100%0.0
1-11Oral Roberts (220.9)SumH78-75W100%0.0
1-13Denver (271.6)SumH94-72W100%0.0
1-20Western Illinois (297.6)SumA70-98W100%0.0
1-24South Dakota (99.3)SumA0-042%-2.4
1-27Fort Wayne (189.6)SumH0-083%10.4
1-30Nebraska Omaha (250.1)SumH0-092%15.4
2-1North Dakota St. (167.4)SumH0-078%8.7
2-8Denver (271.6)SumA0-079%8.9
2-10Oral Roberts (220.9)SumA0-074%7.0
2-17Western Illinois (297.6)SumH0-096%19.1
2-22South Dakota (99.3)SumH0-064%4.0
2-24Fort Wayne (189.6)SumA0-064%4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum26.3426.3976.8376.0714.1313.76
North Dakota St.Sum3.234.6847.0653.47-0.190.32
Nebraska OmahaSum3.244.6526.3229.85-1.53-1.87
DenverSum3.214.6435.2938.64-0.94-1.05
South DakotaSum0.534.6173.6874.390.252.25
Oral RobertsSum3.174.5831.5834.07-1.17-1.46
Fort WayneSum0.394.5552.6353.690.020.34
Western IllinoisSum2.924.5346.1538.40-0.22-1.05
DrakeMVC3.202.2157.8950.670.510.03
Missouri St.MVC3.072.1268.4267.201.130.73
North DakotaBSky2.931.9931.2536.05-1.10-0.55
ColoradoP122.991.9857.8952.130.470.08
WyomingMWC2.921.9558.8255.340.520.21
UMKCWAC2.851.9522.2225.67-1.58-0.95
IowaB102.991.9450.0045.490.00-0.18
UC IrvineBW2.851.9231.5841.31-1.05-0.33
KansasB122.851.9283.3379.081.901.12
Wichita St.Amer2.851.8877.7876.601.581.00
Alabama St.SWAC2.841.8817.6525.09-1.84-0.94
BuffaloMAC2.781.8576.4777.511.471.02
MississippiSEC2.781.8555.5647.390.31-0.10
Montana St.BSky0.300.2750.0047.660.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.310.2758.8257.140.050.04
Miami OHMAC0.180.2147.0641.41-0.01-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.080.2011.7612.81-0.06-0.15
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2070.5969.630.090.08
TCUB120.140.1973.6865.600.070.06
Kansas St.B120.290.1973.6862.720.140.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.220.1757.8966.260.030.06
Iowa St.B120.240.1761.1147.220.05-0.01
OaklandHorz0.140.1761.9065.160.030.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1738.8946.05-0.04-0.01
MontanaBSky0.220.1770.5973.150.090.08
UCLAP120.140.1665.0062.050.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.1629.4133.93-0.08-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1636.8444.11-0.04-0.02
MinnesotaB100.140.1663.6457.630.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.230.1672.2258.920.100.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1668.4254.090.050.01
New MexicoMWC0.220.1645.0048.56-0.02-0.00
WashingtonP120.210.1670.0061.440.080.04
OklahomaB120.140.1677.7867.910.080.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1678.9574.190.080.08
CincinnatiAmer0.230.1589.4785.550.180.11
BradleyMVC0.140.1565.0057.880.040.02
Illinois St.MVC0.210.1547.3746.09-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1536.8432.76-0.03-0.05
StetsonASun0.080.1433.3336.93-0.03-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.150.1337.5031.76-0.04-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.1311.1115.29-0.05-0.09
StanfordP120.150.1355.0050.370.020.00
AkronMAC0.080.1347.0644.91-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.150.1380.0078.940.090.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1358.8249.760.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.140.1355.0053.320.010.01
USCP120.150.1371.4368.280.060.05
ArkansasSEC0.140.1368.4264.200.050.04
IndianaB100.070.1357.8950.710.010.00
KentuckySEC0.070.1373.6867.970.030.05
Penn St.B100.140.1361.9055.760.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1338.8943.43-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.140.130.003.07-0.14-0.12
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1252.6347.520.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1244.4446.02-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1244.4450.08-0.020.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.1255.0052.470.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.210.1247.3748.77-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.220.1245.0041.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.210.1278.9576.130.120.06
SouthernSWAC0.210.1227.7840.97-0.09-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1221.0544.26-0.09-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.150.1011.1118.00-0.12-0.07
LibertyBSth0.080.1050.0054.190.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.1052.6355.290.000.01
UNLVMWC0.070.1073.6865.260.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1066.6766.020.050.03
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1027.7831.11-0.06-0.04
IdahoBSky0.150.1064.7166.850.040.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.1083.3384.240.050.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1045.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.0930.0036.50-0.06-0.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0968.7563.990.030.03
NebraskaB100.150.0966.6759.820.050.02
NevadaMWC0.150.0985.7182.090.100.06
Utah St.MWC0.150.0945.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.0941.1839.16-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.070.0963.1659.710.020.02
BaylorB120.150.0961.1156.090.030.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.220.0983.3381.370.140.06
Texas A&MSEC0.150.0968.4263.960.060.03
TexasB120.070.0963.1657.630.020.01
AmericanPat0.100.0826.3228.11-0.05-0.04
ButlerBE0.100.0866.6763.070.030.02
IUPUIHorz0.100.0827.7829.83-0.04-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0845.0047.07-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.080.0760.0055.160.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0733.3335.21-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.070.009.090.00-0.06
DetroitHorz0.000.0721.0525.970.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0789.4785.210.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0777.7879.150.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0710.0019.63-0.06-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0742.1146.000.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.070.0722.2225.25-0.04-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0710.5318.34-0.05-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0741.1838.470.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0780.0078.850.050.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0722.2227.33-0.04-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0733.3334.10-0.03-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0721.0523.510.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0729.4133.20-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0770.0071.230.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0743.7540.93-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0778.9569.790.040.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0757.8954.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0757.8953.190.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.080.0756.2557.400.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0662.5058.690.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.0666.6765.370.050.02
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0650.0050.860.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0637.5033.78-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0610.5316.75-0.06-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0612.5025.450.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0678.9576.990.040.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0623.5328.21-0.04-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0656.2556.830.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0617.6519.30-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.12-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.150.0622.2228.59-0.09-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0666.6763.420.000.02
HoustonAmer0.150.0678.9572.990.080.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.0670.0068.220.060.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.920.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0640.0043.35-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.060.0010.67-0.08-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.410.00-0.00
OregonP120.150.0665.0063.850.040.02
Oregon St.P120.150.0657.8950.840.020.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.480.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0658.8262.820.010.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.0627.7834.50-0.07-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0670.0070.570.030.03
TempleAmer0.000.0652.6351.740.000.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0658.8262.440.010.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0617.6523.860.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0668.4260.860.000.01
Washington St.P120.070.0647.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0652.9452.230.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.150.0661.1151.910.030.00
SyracuseACC0.150.0668.4261.230.060.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.0635.2940.48-0.04-0.01
ToledoMAC0.150.0666.6767.700.050.02
UABCUSA0.140.0661.1164.130.030.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0689.4777.000.060.03
MichiganB100.070.0676.1970.740.030.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.200.000.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.040.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0672.2268.930.000.02
Texas TechB120.070.0678.9571.810.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.140.0668.4257.740.050.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0684.2178.170.050.03
CreightonBE0.080.0375.0070.700.040.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0380.9583.260.050.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.340.020.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.450.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.50-0.03-0.01
TroySB0.080.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.700.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.140.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.640.020.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0347.3743.02-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.970.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.73-0.04-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.550.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.01
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0357.1453.050.010.00
NJITASun0.080.0338.8942.61-0.02-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.020.020.01
PacificWCC0.080.0345.0044.47-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.83-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.320.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.410.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.960.060.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0363.1657.540.020.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0366.6768.730.030.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.890.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0350.0059.450.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.030.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.980.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.560.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.940.020.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.520.020.01
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.170.000.00
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.250.030.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.200.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0372.2274.710.030.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0355.0050.330.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0390.4888.370.050.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.06-0.02
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.690.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.13-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.037.6923.28-0.06-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.570.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0350.0046.300.00-0.00