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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:90.0
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:230
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-4
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:120
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1090.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Buffalo (28.0)MACA69-67L0%0.0
11-17Idaho (267.0)BSkyA82-77L0%0.0
11-21North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH74-72W100%0.0
11-30Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunN58-71L0%0.0
12-6UMKC (295.0)WACH81-61W100%0.0
12-9Saint Louis (272.0)A10A55-62W100%0.0
12-13Idaho (267.0)BSkyH87-85W100%0.0
12-18Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyN75-72W100%0.0
12-19Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACN49-53W100%0.0
12-20Utah St. (143.0)MWCA65-68W100%0.0
12-23Utah (20.0)P12A80-66L0%0.0
12-28Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA74-63L0%0.0
1-2Denver (232.0)SumA76-69L0%0.0
1-4North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA72-69L0%0.0
1-7Western Illinois (328.0)SumH75-44W100%0.0
1-10Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA68-87W100%0.0
1-14IUPUI (260.0)SumH68-53W100%0.0
1-17South Dakota (213.0)SumH71-57W100%0.0
1-21IPFW (215.0)SumH82-53W100%0.0
1-24Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA72-76W100%0.0
1-28Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH86-64W100%0.0
1-31Denver (232.0)SumH69-39W100%0.0
2-5IPFW (215.0)SumA84-74L0%0.0
2-7IUPUI (260.0)SumA56-63W100%0.0
2-14North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH68-58W100%0.0
2-18Western Illinois (328.0)SumA77-79W100%0.0
2-21Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH81-52W100%0.0
2-28South Dakota (213.0)SumA80-64L0%0.0
3-7Western Illinois (328.0)SumN87-50W100%0.0
3-9South Dakota (213.0)SumN78-65W100%0.0
3-10North Dakota St. (92.0)SumN56-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum26.6926.6973.6473.6412.6212.62
North Dakota St.Sum5.875.8770.3770.372.392.39
South DakotaSum5.835.8350.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum5.775.7726.0926.09-2.76-2.76
DenverSum4.314.3139.2939.29-0.92-0.92
Oral RobertsSum4.314.3157.1457.140.620.62
IPFWSum4.244.2448.0048.00-0.17-0.17
IUPUISum4.234.2334.4834.48-1.31-1.31
Nebraska OmahaSum4.224.2242.3142.31-0.65-0.65
IdahoBSky3.413.4138.4638.46-0.79-0.79
North DakotaBSky1.891.8922.2222.22-1.05-1.05
Idaho St.BSky1.861.8618.5218.52-1.17-1.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.801.8037.9337.93-0.43-0.43
UMKCWAC1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Northern IowaMVC1.701.7090.6290.621.381.38
Utah St.MWC1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
UtahP121.641.6473.3373.330.770.77
BuffaloMAC1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6164.2964.290.460.46
Saint LouisA101.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
MontanaBSky0.390.3960.0060.000.080.08
Montana St.BSky0.390.3920.6920.69-0.23-0.23
Utah ValleyWAC0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
Weber St.BSky0.280.2839.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.270.2725.0025.00-0.14-0.14
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.260.2674.1974.190.130.13
AkronMAC0.250.2558.8258.820.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.230.2348.1548.15-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2062.0762.070.050.05
SeattleWAC0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
StanfordP120.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1617.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
UNLVMWC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1562.9662.960.040.04
MemphisAmer0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Washington St.P120.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
DrakeMVC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
PacificWCC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
NevadaMWC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
BradleyMVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01