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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:42.8
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:139
Current Record:16-5
Expected Record:21-7
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:36
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-527.113.48%
22-635.033.28%
21-745.532.60%
20-857.815.81%
19-970.84.16%
18-1084.00.60%
17-11103.00.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Weber St. (127.5)BSkyH85-68W100%0.0
11-19Illinois St. (148.3)MVCA67-83W100%0.0
11-21TCU (175.3)B12A67-76W100%0.0
11-24Houston Baptist (198.5)SlndN68-92W100%0.0
11-25Cleveland St. (272.4)HorzN77-66W100%0.0
11-28UMKC (259.4)WACA64-57L0%0.0
12-8Minnesota (237.8)B10A70-84W100%0.0
12-13UC Santa Barbara (126.6)BWH86-68W100%0.0
12-16Texas Tech (62.4)B12A79-67L0%0.0
12-19Florida Gulf Coast (224.8)ASunA52-56W100%0.0
12-22Weber St. (127.5)BSkyA99-95L0%0.0
12-27Middle Tennessee (79.1)CUSAN65-61W100%0.0
1-1Denver (213.1)SumH68-59W100%0.0
1-3Western Illinois (259.2)SumH63-59W100%0.0
1-7IUPUI (176.7)SumA74-67L0%0.0
1-14IPFW (77.4)SumH92-76W100%0.0
1-16North Dakota St. (127.5)SumA68-57L0%0.0
1-21Oral Roberts (143.4)SumA74-86W100%0.0
1-23South Dakota (198.5)SumA75-79W100%0.0
1-28Nebraska Omaha (121.1)SumH87-76W100%0.0
1-30Denver (213.1)SumA56-67W100%0.0
2-6IUPUI (176.7)SumH0-090%13.9
2-10Nebraska Omaha (121.1)SumA0-055%1.3
2-13South Dakota (198.5)SumH0-090%14.1
2-18IPFW (77.4)SumA0-058%2.1
2-20Western Illinois (259.2)SumA0-078%8.3
2-25North Dakota St. (127.5)SumH0-079%8.8
2-27Oral Roberts (143.4)SumH0-085%11.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum26.4126.4684.5482.6218.2517.27
South DakotaSum3.094.5740.9142.04-0.56-0.73
Nebraska OmahaSum3.104.5661.9062.300.741.12
DenverSum5.324.5357.1452.400.760.22
IUPUISum2.994.4739.1339.19-0.65-0.97
IPFWSum2.924.4777.2773.841.592.13
North Dakota St.Sum2.874.4660.0060.400.570.93
Oral RobertsSum2.924.4642.8645.75-0.42-0.38
Western IllinoisSum2.914.4429.4130.87-1.20-1.70
Weber St.BSky4.873.6370.5973.502.001.71
MinnesotaB102.601.9827.2728.77-1.18-0.84
UMKCWAC2.541.9426.3232.24-1.20-0.69
TCUB122.561.9147.6239.10-0.12-0.42
Texas TechB122.491.8760.0052.420.500.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.441.8542.1151.59-0.380.06
Illinois St.MVC2.501.8554.5549.260.23-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.431.8547.3751.58-0.130.06
Houston BaptistSlnd2.491.8458.8252.800.440.10
Cleveland St.Horz2.381.7923.8124.21-1.25-0.92
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.381.7973.6871.481.130.77
Missouri St.MVC0.310.2840.9138.03-0.06-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.410.2542.1142.70-0.06-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.410.2530.0029.98-0.16-0.10
North DakotaBSky0.240.2344.4446.94-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.260.2161.9062.050.060.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.2138.1042.99-0.04-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.290.1935.0035.36-0.09-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.110.1938.1041.23-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.180.1944.4448.52-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1915.7916.39-0.12-0.13
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1950.0053.090.000.01
IllinoisB100.160.1847.8344.51-0.01-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.220.1850.0045.730.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.170.1872.7368.840.080.07
OklahomaB120.160.1890.4884.890.130.13
Kansas St.B120.110.1859.0955.550.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.180.174.557.91-0.16-0.15
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.230.175.267.22-0.20-0.14
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1763.6468.210.050.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.1640.9139.22-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.110.1642.8645.93-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.170.1647.8343.92-0.01-0.02
DrakeMVC0.290.1622.7324.85-0.16-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.210.1535.0034.93-0.06-0.05
IowaB100.130.1481.8279.900.080.08
CreightonBE0.120.1360.8759.050.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1381.8281.010.070.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1315.0015.65-0.08-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1365.0067.510.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1347.6247.86-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.160.1321.7427.64-0.09-0.06
StetsonASun0.110.1325.0029.75-0.06-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1322.7324.28-0.06-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1345.4547.97-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.1355.5660.900.010.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.135.2610.18-0.11-0.10
Portland St.BSky0.130.1333.3339.27-0.04-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.1336.8434.20-0.01-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.180.1347.3749.38-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.240.1347.6252.92-0.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1331.5836.16-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1330.0028.61-0.04-0.05
DetroitHorz0.160.1345.0044.39-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.160.1340.9140.46-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1234.7837.55-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1280.9583.050.070.08
Wright St.Horz0.110.1254.5555.190.010.01
IndianaB100.160.1282.6177.370.100.07
Miami OHMAC0.100.1228.5728.88-0.04-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1254.5555.310.010.01
BaylorB120.110.1276.1967.350.060.04
KansasB120.110.1280.9577.000.070.06
TexasB120.160.1268.1861.780.060.03
West VirginiaB120.110.1281.8278.720.070.07
WisconsinB100.070.1060.8755.900.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.120.1023.8125.03-0.06-0.05
SeattleWAC0.120.1045.0042.81-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1031.8233.75-0.04-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1047.3750.51-0.010.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.1033.3333.64-0.02-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.0933.3333.55-0.04-0.03
HawaiiBW0.180.0983.3380.130.120.06
UABCUSA0.110.0981.8278.320.070.05
MichiganB100.120.0972.7367.980.050.03
Georgia St.SB0.110.0961.1158.300.020.02
UtahP120.110.0972.7368.550.050.03
MarylandB100.110.0986.9681.770.080.06
PurdueB100.100.0982.6178.230.070.05
BradleyMVC0.110.098.709.77-0.09-0.07
NJITASun0.060.0752.1754.520.000.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0768.1869.350.020.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0775.0072.220.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0753.3355.180.000.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0733.3332.69-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0768.7574.730.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0773.6870.400.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0755.0048.870.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.110.0760.0057.960.020.01
Arizona St.P120.130.0652.1750.240.010.00
RiceCUSA0.130.0625.0028.19-0.06-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.0642.8641.75-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.120.0641.6743.51-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.130.0669.5773.030.050.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.8432.84-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.130.0650.0050.510.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0672.7366.970.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0638.8943.22-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0623.8128.31-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0657.1457.940.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0669.5768.670.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.120.0642.8651.33-0.020.00
LSUSEC0.050.0663.6459.440.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0647.8350.56-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0636.3630.98-0.01-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0663.6464.090.010.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0626.0930.33-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.130.0637.5036.54-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0685.7176.030.040.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0663.1666.150.010.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0663.6459.950.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.120.0672.7371.670.050.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.110.0681.8279.750.070.04
BelmontOVC0.110.0669.5770.030.040.03
ToledoMAC0.110.0657.1457.560.020.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.0610.5325.37-0.09-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0665.0060.810.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.0642.8635.05-0.01-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0657.1457.880.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0665.2265.230.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0666.6760.120.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0630.0032.46-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0666.6767.310.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.0633.3329.23-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0631.8232.32-0.04-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0618.1822.83-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0630.0033.57-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0652.3857.440.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0635.0036.57-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.110.0668.1862.190.040.01
Rhode IslandA100.110.0654.5555.990.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0661.9058.190.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0668.1866.490.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0673.9176.040.020.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0665.2256.530.020.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0659.0958.550.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0652.1754.140.000.00
NorthwesternB100.100.0666.6763.480.030.02
RutgersB100.000.0622.7320.68-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0675.0073.480.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0676.1979.640.000.04
FloridaSEC0.060.0368.1867.800.020.01
La SalleA100.060.0321.0520.91-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0381.8277.490.040.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0342.8639.84-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0381.8281.010.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0375.0071.280.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0316.6724.27-0.04-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0318.7533.17-0.04-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0329.4138.47-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0310.0015.28-0.05-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0318.7526.09-0.04-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0342.8637.19-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0363.6461.810.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0336.3642.19-0.02-0.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0359.0959.680.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0330.0029.46-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0354.5561.950.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0360.0054.590.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0352.3848.890.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0363.6465.480.020.01
USCP120.060.0378.2673.130.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0350.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0314.2913.97-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.060.0377.2776.780.030.02
VermontAE0.060.0356.5258.380.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0350.0054.850.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0390.0086.120.050.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0363.6462.340.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0357.8961.480.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.690.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.95-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0382.6181.380.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0352.3854.240.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0352.1751.560.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.120.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0352.3853.680.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0381.8277.440.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0371.4370.810.020.01
TempleAmer0.050.0361.9058.420.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0342.8643.53-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.87-0.04-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.034.7614.01-0.05-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0390.4885.550.040.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.260.00-0.00