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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Northern Kentucky

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:310.0
Current RPI:310
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:265
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:270
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21310.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Purdue (145.0)B10A77-76L0%0.0
11-10Kentucky (17.0)SECA93-63L0%0.0
11-16San Diego (156.0)WCCH44-75L0%0.0
11-19Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH61-74L0%0.0
11-23Tulane (223.0)CUSAA86-91W100%0.0
11-29Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCN65-79L0%0.0
11-30Texas St. (307.0)SBN61-70L0%0.0
12-7Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA79-66L0%0.0
12-15Chattanooga (243.0)SCH87-71W100%0.0
12-18Hampton (204.0)MEACH69-67W100%0.0
12-21Navy (321.0)PatH72-65W100%0.0
12-27North Carolina (25.0)ACCA75-60L0%0.0
12-30Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA60-56L0%0.0
1-1Stetson (333.0)ASunA65-67W100%0.0
1-4Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH73-66W100%0.0
1-6North Florida (189.0)ASunH70-64W100%0.0
1-9USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA73-64L0%0.0
1-11East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA74-65L0%0.0
1-16Mercer (81.0)ASunH58-74L0%0.0
1-18Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH82-69W100%0.0
1-24Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH74-75L0%0.0
1-30North Florida (189.0)ASunA67-66L0%0.0
2-1Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA95-77L0%0.0
2-6East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH50-64L0%0.0
2-8USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH59-76L0%0.0
2-14Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA69-67L0%0.0
2-16Mercer (81.0)ASunA89-67L0%0.0
2-21Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA70-66L0%0.0
2-27Stetson (333.0)ASunH96-58W100%0.0
3-1Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH72-92L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern KentuckyASun26.3226.3226.9226.92-12.15-12.15
MercerASun4.384.3872.4172.411.961.96
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.384.3860.0060.000.880.88
East Tennessee St.ASun4.364.3650.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun4.334.3351.7251.720.150.15
LipscombASun4.294.2944.4444.44-0.48-0.48
StetsonASun4.274.2724.1424.14-2.21-2.21
North FloridaASun4.274.2746.4346.43-0.30-0.30
JacksonvilleASun4.264.2634.6234.62-1.31-1.31
Kennesaw St.ASun4.244.2411.1111.11-3.30-3.30
Tennessee MartinOVC1.811.8117.8617.86-1.16-1.16
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.811.8151.7251.720.060.06
Morehead St.OVC1.801.8056.6756.670.240.24
ChattanoogaSC1.751.7553.5753.570.130.13
TulaneCUSA1.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
Texas St.SB1.721.7217.8617.86-1.11-1.11
KentuckySEC1.691.6969.7069.700.670.67
North CarolinaACC1.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
HamptonMEAC1.671.6762.0762.070.400.40
NavyPat1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
PurdueB101.671.6745.1645.16-0.16-0.16
San DiegoWCC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
BelmontOVC0.300.3071.8871.880.130.13
Austin PeayOVC0.300.3035.7135.71-0.09-0.09
SamfordSC0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.2270.9770.970.090.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.220.2213.7913.79-0.16-0.16
Murray St.OVC0.200.2059.2659.260.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.190.1994.1294.120.170.17
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Georgia TechACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Ohio St.B100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
WinthropBSth0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Michigan St.B100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckySB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
RadfordBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
DavidsonSC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
TexasB120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Notre DameACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
BucknellPat0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00