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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Northern Kentucky

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:87.0
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:215
Current SOS:215
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-3
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:209



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1087.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Illinois (62.0)B10A79-64L0%0.0
11-18Austin Peay (261.0)OVCN69-77L0%0.0
11-19Delaware (235.0)CAAN53-74W100%0.0
11-20Miami OH (302.0)MACA70-79W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH74-82L0%0.0
11-30Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA79-84W100%0.0
12-3Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA61-72W100%0.0
12-7Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH80-70W100%0.0
12-10Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA66-80W100%0.0
12-18Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH70-48W100%0.0
12-23West Virginia (24.0)B12A92-61L0%0.0
12-29Detroit (289.0)HorzA70-81W100%0.0
12-31Oakland (109.0)HorzA76-65L0%0.0
1-5Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH83-70W100%0.0
1-7Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH83-75W100%0.0
1-10Green Bay (157.0)HorzA80-71L0%0.0
1-12Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA68-58L0%0.0
1-20Oakland (109.0)HorzH70-79L0%0.0
1-22Detroit (289.0)HorzH101-87W100%0.0
1-27Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA62-79W100%0.0
1-29Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA65-58L0%0.0
2-4Wright St. (115.0)HorzA79-83W100%0.0
2-9Green Bay (157.0)HorzH69-67W100%0.0
2-11Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH69-63W100%0.0
2-16Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA60-62W100%0.0
2-18Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA81-77L0%0.0
2-21Wright St. (115.0)HorzH83-76W100%0.0
2-24Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH90-82W100%0.0
2-26Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH82-78W100%0.0
3-5Wright St. (115.0)HorzN82-77W100%0.0
3-6Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzN84-74W100%0.0
3-7Milwaukee (256.0)HorzN59-53W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern KentuckyHorz26.5726.5772.6072.6012.0112.01
MilwaukeeHorz5.765.7629.0329.03-2.42-2.42
Youngstown St.Horz5.715.7134.4834.48-1.77-1.77
Wright St.Horz5.625.6266.6766.671.871.87
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.244.2444.8344.83-0.44-0.44
DetroitHorz4.184.1825.0025.00-2.09-2.09
Cleveland St.Horz4.164.1628.5728.57-1.78-1.78
OaklandHorz4.164.1671.4371.431.781.78
ValparaisoHorz4.164.1675.8675.862.152.15
Green BayHorz4.134.1355.5655.560.460.46
Austin PeayOVC1.751.7529.6329.63-0.71-0.71
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.751.7546.1546.15-0.13-0.13
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.731.7343.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Miami OHMAC1.691.6931.0331.03-0.64-0.64
Morehead St.OVC1.671.6744.4444.44-0.19-0.19
IllinoisB101.661.6653.3353.330.110.11
DelawareCAA1.621.6236.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.611.6172.4172.410.720.72
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.591.5966.6766.670.530.53
West VirginiaB121.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
Murray St.OVC0.400.4045.1645.16-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.260.2677.7877.780.140.14
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.2517.8617.86-0.16-0.16
Tennessee MartinOVC0.240.2461.2961.290.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.180.1810.3410.34-0.14-0.14
Western IllinoisSum0.180.1823.0823.08-0.10-0.10
OhioMAC0.170.1763.3363.330.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1653.5753.570.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
Michigan St.B100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
DePaulBE0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
PurdueB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Penn St.B100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
MontanaBSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02