live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Northern Kentucky

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:296.0
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:187
Current Record:7-21
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:287
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-21296.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13West Virginia (10.0)B12A107-61L0%0.0
11-21Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH56-64L0%0.0
11-23Xavier (7.0)BEA78-66L0%0.0
11-30North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA74-63L0%0.0
12-5Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA79-73L0%0.0
12-13Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH81-60W100%0.0
12-15Michigan (56.0)B10A77-62L0%0.0
12-19Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH79-69W100%0.0
12-30Toledo (182.0)MACA90-73L0%0.0
1-2Green Bay (112.0)HorzA86-70L0%0.0
1-4Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA76-67L0%0.0
1-9Wright St. (146.0)HorzH46-60L0%0.0
1-14Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH84-64W100%0.0
1-16Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH65-70L0%0.0
1-19Oakland (116.0)HorzA73-90W100%0.0
1-22Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH82-69W100%0.0
1-24Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH46-71L0%0.0
1-29Detroit (204.0)HorzA83-91W100%0.0
2-1Oakland (116.0)HorzH74-85L0%0.0
2-4Green Bay (112.0)HorzH78-85L0%0.0
2-6Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH75-71W100%0.0
2-11Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA64-52L0%0.0
2-13Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA79-77L0%0.0
2-16Detroit (204.0)HorzH68-74L0%0.0
2-20Wright St. (146.0)HorzA67-64L0%0.0
2-25Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA63-58L0%0.0
2-27Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA94-75L0%0.0
3-5Milwaukee (173.0)HorzN86-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern KentuckyHorz26.4626.4623.7723.77-13.88-13.88
MilwaukeeHorz6.356.3557.1457.140.910.91
Green BayHorz4.924.9261.2961.291.111.11
Wright St.Horz4.844.8458.0658.060.780.78
DetroitHorz4.704.7048.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Youngstown St.Horz4.684.6828.5728.57-2.01-2.01
OaklandHorz4.654.6566.6766.671.551.55
Cleveland St.Horz4.644.6417.8617.86-2.99-2.99
ValparaisoHorz4.624.6278.5778.572.642.64
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.614.617.697.69-3.90-3.90
ToledoMAC2.112.1150.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.941.9437.0437.04-0.50-0.50
Morehead St.OVC1.901.9057.1457.140.270.27
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.881.8811.5411.54-1.45-1.45
MichiganB101.871.8762.5062.500.470.47
XavierBE1.871.8783.8783.871.261.26
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.841.8430.0030.00-0.74-0.74
Norfolk St.MEAC1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB121.791.7975.7675.760.920.92
Murray St.OVC0.360.3651.7251.720.010.01
BelmontOVC0.310.3163.3363.330.080.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.300.3021.4321.43-0.17-0.17
Bowling GreenMAC0.300.3043.7543.75-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
PurdueB100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
Chicago St.WAC0.170.173.453.45-0.16-0.16
WisconsinB100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
DePaulBE0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1329.1729.17-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
UCFAmer0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
OhioMAC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
IndianaB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
DenverSum0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
TexasB120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
AmericanPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01