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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Northern Kentucky

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:216.9
Current RPI:197
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:153
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:90



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-888.00.01%
18-9103.40.05%
17-10113.60.28%
16-11132.81.44%
15-12150.44.36%
14-13169.710.02%
13-14189.816.71%
12-15210.120.21%
11-16230.919.95%
10-17250.714.57%
9-18269.18.06%
8-19286.63.29%
7-20300.60.80%
6-21312.60.22%
5-22311.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wisconsin (5.6)B10A62-31L0%0.0
11-16Nebraska (101.4)B10A80-61L0%0.0
11-19North Carolina A&T (332.0)MEACH68-55W100%0.0
11-26Eastern Washington (54.8)BSkyA81-60L0%0.0
11-29Idaho (201.4)BSkyA74-79W100%0.0
12-3Tennessee Martin (148.4)OVCH56-71L0%0.0
12-7West Virginia (19.3)B12H42-67L0%0.0
12-16Chattanooga (221.6)SCA93-81L0%0.0
12-19Morehead St. (251.3)OVCA60-83W100%0.0
12-22Idaho (201.4)BSkyH0-055%1.4
12-27Northwestern (157.1)B10A0-019%-10.1
12-31Youngstown St. (223.9)HorzA0-031%-5.9
1-3Toledo (92.8)MACH0-030%-6.2
1-10Lipscomb (261.2)ASunA0-040%-3.0
1-14Kennesaw St. (311.4)ASunH0-086%12.4
1-17USC Upstate (165.3)ASunA0-020%-9.9
1-22North Florida (153.3)ASunH0-045%-1.4
1-24Jacksonville (339.4)ASunH0-090%14.9
1-29Stetson (315.6)ASunA0-054%1.3
1-31Florida Gulf Coast (98.1)ASunA0-014%-12.8
2-7Lipscomb (261.2)ASunH0-068%5.3
2-12Florida Gulf Coast (98.1)ASunH0-035%-4.5
2-14Stetson (315.6)ASunH0-080%9.7
2-19Jacksonville (339.4)ASunA0-071%6.5
2-21North Florida (153.3)ASunA0-020%-9.8
2-25Kennesaw St. (311.4)ASunA0-064%4.1
2-28USC Upstate (165.3)ASunH0-045%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern KentuckyASun27.4926.4339.5344.99-5.75-2.65
Kennesaw St.ASun0.284.5933.3329.04-0.09-1.92
USC UpstateASun0.464.5863.6467.170.131.57
North FloridaASun0.004.5550.0057.080.000.64
LipscombASun0.004.5422.2237.79-0.00-1.11
JacksonvilleASun0.004.5210.0017.95-0.00-2.90
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.5177.7869.720.001.78
StetsonASun0.004.5110.0026.70-0.00-2.10
IdahoBSky5.563.7742.8654.36-0.790.33
ChattanoogaSC5.812.0233.3347.59-1.94-0.10
NorthwesternB100.002.0163.6441.550.00-0.34
WisconsinB105.832.0190.0088.474.671.55
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.561.9955.5675.370.621.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC5.561.990.0024.54-5.56-1.01
NebraskaB105.861.9862.5042.671.47-0.29
Tennessee MartinOVC5.861.9262.5063.411.470.51
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.9245.4542.26-0.00-0.30
Morehead St.OVC5.561.8918.1838.53-3.54-0.43
ToledoMAC0.001.8563.6461.230.000.42
West VirginiaB125.561.8590.0069.084.440.71
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.400.0011.94-0.00-0.31
Tennessee TechOVC0.280.3344.4449.14-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.3122.2229.80-0.00-0.12
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.3018.1830.76-0.20-0.12
FIUCUSA0.000.2744.4450.41-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.2566.6759.420.000.05
BelmontOVC0.000.2463.6464.880.000.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.230.0015.00-0.00-0.16
IllinoisB100.000.2275.0065.140.000.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.690.2170.0059.660.280.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2011.1128.88-0.00-0.09
MontanaBSky0.000.2025.0052.35-0.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.2020.0026.07-0.00-0.10
Portland St.BSky0.000.2050.0042.090.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2042.8641.81-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.2037.5044.33-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.480.2075.0077.010.240.11
MarylandB100.000.1990.9168.230.000.07
SamfordSC0.000.1933.3330.28-0.00-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.230.1975.0058.160.120.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1737.5056.46-0.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.310.1754.5541.980.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1650.0037.570.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.280.1672.7367.960.130.06
ElonCAA0.000.1644.4451.07-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.1666.6759.370.000.03
Ohio St.B100.460.1681.8282.250.290.10
MinnesotaB100.000.1680.0067.830.000.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1437.5063.95-0.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.1455.5635.900.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1342.8649.02-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.1350.0054.190.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1344.4437.40-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1360.0057.890.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.1322.2231.81-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1336.3648.28-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.1390.9179.980.000.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.310.1318.1820.86-0.20-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.350.1342.8633.27-0.05-0.04
OaklandHorz0.230.1327.2732.45-0.11-0.04
MercerSC0.000.1344.4444.02-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.280.1390.9169.030.230.05
IndianaB100.280.1381.8263.330.180.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1285.7170.530.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1250.0040.450.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1266.6767.300.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.1291.6755.310.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.1025.0033.40-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.280.1050.0054.170.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1014.2929.82-0.00-0.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1020.0040.84-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1040.0043.04-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1045.4549.62-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.1060.0065.120.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1012.5026.89-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1040.0046.19-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.600.1077.7872.890.330.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.1080.0053.260.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.1042.8637.71-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1050.0068.770.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1066.6766.010.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1020.0035.33-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1033.3349.35-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1040.0048.02-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.1030.0031.48-0.10-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.250.1075.0061.480.130.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1090.9183.090.000.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.1071.4363.770.100.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0930.0039.59-0.11-0.02
UABCUSA0.480.0930.0036.69-0.19-0.02
VMISC0.250.0933.3338.93-0.08-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0977.7875.550.000.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0975.0066.220.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0954.5532.590.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.250.0970.0062.710.100.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0955.5652.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0766.6758.000.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0740.0032.26-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0733.3341.02-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0766.6758.210.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0736.3637.85-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0788.8977.320.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0766.6762.580.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0069.200.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.079.0916.15-0.00-0.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0754.5552.490.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0760.0062.070.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0733.3361.74-0.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0770.0051.780.000.00
UC DavisBW0.350.0787.5068.000.260.02
Washington St.P120.350.0740.0028.13-0.07-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.350.0737.5031.88-0.09-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0780.0073.540.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0772.7367.590.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.310.0760.0061.600.060.02
LongwoodBSth0.310.0720.0025.85-0.19-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.230.0738.4644.61-0.05-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.540.070.008.60-0.54-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.0766.6754.130.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0737.5034.64-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0763.6465.220.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0737.5050.31-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0770.0076.180.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0716.6743.20-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0725.0035.39-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0740.0041.32-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0781.8273.180.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.310.060.0017.69-0.31-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.540.0670.0064.680.220.02
Arkansas St.SB0.310.0642.8648.87-0.04-0.00
MarquetteBE0.560.0660.0048.980.11-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0027.67-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.260.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5655.280.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.33-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0660.0058.120.000.01
The CitadelSC0.280.0614.2932.16-0.20-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0618.1825.30-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0040.93-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.480.0622.2236.53-0.27-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.230.069.0917.12-0.19-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.150.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.03-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.240.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7870.890.000.02
DukeACC0.250.06100.0087.090.250.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0690.0065.480.000.02
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.190.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.65-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.020.000.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.360.000.01
CreightonBE0.310.0375.0052.140.150.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.470.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.310.0380.0076.450.190.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.0344.4455.37-0.030.00
Rhode IslandA100.310.0366.6773.310.100.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.280.0355.5673.740.030.02
SeattleWAC0.280.0333.3343.83-0.09-0.00
SMUAmer0.280.0372.7375.710.130.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0327.2738.30-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.320.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0320.0052.97-0.170.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.280.0330.0038.57-0.11-0.01
WashingtonP120.280.03100.0075.440.280.02
AmericanPat0.230.0363.6463.240.060.01
BradleyMVC0.230.0333.3334.04-0.08-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0316.6733.39-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.280.0357.1470.520.040.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.00-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.72-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.280.0362.5059.050.070.01
HowardMEAC0.230.0330.0043.74-0.09-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.230.0372.7367.520.110.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.280.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.27-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.560.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.230.0390.0082.310.190.02
RadfordBSth0.230.0355.5658.650.030.01
Saint LouisA100.230.0360.0033.270.05-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.36-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.230.0366.6749.560.08-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.250.0366.6742.600.08-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.140.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.80-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.66-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.59-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.0345.4545.10-0.02-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.250.0350.0058.070.000.00
George MasonA100.250.0333.3330.21-0.08-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.250.0370.0059.220.100.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0316.6736.63-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.250.0366.6767.650.080.01
LSUSEC0.250.0380.0063.910.150.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0320.0044.37-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.250.0350.0058.370.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.030.0017.97-0.25-0.02
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.440.000.00
VCUA100.000.0372.7375.740.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01