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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Northern Kentucky

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:246.7
Current RPI:258
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:157
Current Record:7-14
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:272
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14186.30.06%
12-15199.32.19%
11-16216.813.38%
10-17235.632.37%
9-18256.034.14%
8-19275.215.56%
7-20293.32.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13West Virginia (10.0)B12A107-61L0%0.0
11-21Morehead St. (161.8)OVCH56-64L0%0.0
11-23Xavier (10.2)BEA78-66L0%0.0
11-30North Carolina A&T (334.5)MEACA74-63L0%0.0
12-5Eastern Illinois (256.1)OVCA79-73L0%0.0
12-13Norfolk St. (206.6)MEACH81-60W100%0.0
12-15Michigan (48.1)B10A77-62L0%0.0
12-19Southeast Missouri St. (332.3)OVCH79-69W100%0.0
12-30Toledo (139.5)MACA90-73L0%0.0
1-2Green Bay (161.2)HorzA86-70L0%0.0
1-4Milwaukee (166.6)HorzA76-67L0%0.0
1-9Wright St. (157.6)HorzH46-60L0%0.0
1-14Youngstown St. (258.7)HorzH84-64W100%0.0
1-16Cleveland St. (273.3)HorzH65-70L0%0.0
1-19Oakland (110.6)HorzA73-90W100%0.0
1-22Illinois Chicago (347.1)HorzH82-69W100%0.0
1-24Valparaiso (37.2)HorzH46-71L0%0.0
1-29Detroit (208.9)HorzA83-91W100%0.0
2-1Oakland (110.6)HorzH74-85L0%0.0
2-4Green Bay (161.2)HorzH78-85L0%0.0
2-6Milwaukee (166.6)HorzH75-71W100%0.0
2-11Valparaiso (37.2)HorzA0-03%-20.6
2-13Illinois Chicago (347.1)HorzA0-072%6.3
2-16Detroit (208.9)HorzH0-053%0.8
2-20Wright St. (157.6)HorzA0-021%-8.9
2-25Cleveland St. (273.3)HorzA0-047%-0.8
2-27Youngstown St. (258.7)HorzA0-051%0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern KentuckyHorz26.4226.4530.5336.00-10.29-7.41
Green BayHorz5.504.8450.0052.760.000.27
Youngstown St.Horz3.284.8031.8232.94-1.19-1.64
OaklandHorz5.464.7869.5769.222.141.84
Cleveland St.Horz3.234.7718.1818.76-2.06-2.98
Wright St.Horz3.294.7754.5554.590.300.44
DetroitHorz3.174.7650.0047.640.00-0.22
MilwaukeeHorz5.344.7460.0060.351.070.98
ValparaisoHorz3.084.7480.9581.901.903.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.064.735.266.67-2.74-4.10
ToledoMAC2.792.2059.0960.730.510.47
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.602.0238.1041.37-0.62-0.35
Morehead St.OVC2.601.9847.6250.54-0.120.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.491.9514.2916.38-1.78-1.31
MichiganB102.481.9568.1865.050.900.59
XavierBE2.481.9586.9681.191.841.21
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.481.9126.0930.82-1.19-0.73
Norfolk St.MEAC2.431.8845.4552.46-0.220.09
West VirginiaB122.381.8578.2677.361.351.01
BelmontOVC0.320.3366.6766.540.110.11
Bowling GreenMAC0.320.3350.0045.840.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.320.3045.4549.67-0.03-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.380.3017.3920.65-0.25-0.18
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.1943.4842.66-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.210.1960.0057.610.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1940.0043.44-0.03-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.200.1965.2260.590.060.04
Chicago St.WAC0.260.194.357.72-0.24-0.16
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1737.5040.54-0.04-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1747.8350.19-0.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.210.1752.0050.250.010.00
DePaulBE0.210.1633.3334.01-0.07-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.160.1660.8757.190.030.02
AkronMAC0.210.1682.6181.140.140.10
WisconsinB100.220.1660.8755.830.050.02
Miami OHMAC0.150.1634.7833.09-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.150.1680.0077.930.090.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1531.8236.14-0.06-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1425.0024.33-0.08-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1466.6762.650.050.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1468.1866.650.060.05
UCFAmer0.120.1450.0044.860.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1427.7829.16-0.07-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1352.1751.910.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.160.1325.0033.22-0.08-0.04
Notre DameACC0.160.1370.8367.790.070.05
Rhode IslandA100.110.1358.3357.170.020.02
South DakotaSum0.160.1341.6741.23-0.03-0.02
OhioMAC0.160.1363.6461.420.040.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1347.6249.35-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.100.1387.5083.700.080.08
MinnesotaB100.160.1326.0927.79-0.08-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1228.0030.73-0.06-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1054.1750.940.010.00
PittsburghACC0.110.1072.7367.630.050.04
IllinoisB100.110.1045.8344.13-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.160.1079.1774.040.090.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1045.4546.24-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.160.1050.0051.210.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1059.0959.420.030.02
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1039.1337.81-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0914.2920.67-0.07-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.100.0959.0961.320.020.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0936.3638.92-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0919.0525.89-0.00-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0924.0024.55-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.0972.0070.540.070.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.099.0912.24-0.08-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0925.0025.08-0.03-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.0938.1037.68-0.04-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.150.0956.5256.990.020.01
Michigan St.B100.150.0980.0081.600.090.06
TexasB120.100.0966.6762.200.030.02
VirginiaACC0.140.0983.3378.470.100.05
DrakeMVC0.060.0720.8323.21-0.03-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0745.8346.64-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0739.1341.10-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0754.5550.110.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0756.5259.860.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0775.0076.250.050.03
DaytonA100.100.0786.9682.300.080.04
AmericanPat0.050.0630.4331.91-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0628.5728.55-0.02-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.110.0654.1751.790.010.00
DuquesneA100.110.0660.8756.430.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0647.6252.05-0.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0633.3333.68-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.090.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.0652.1751.510.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.720.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.550.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0675.0072.610.030.03
LipscombASun0.110.0625.0029.30-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0647.3749.93-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0682.6179.220.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0661.9056.430.010.01
PacificWCC0.110.0625.0028.89-0.05-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0640.0042.11-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0630.4331.20-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.870.030.03
StanfordP120.110.0650.0046.540.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.100.0659.0953.250.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0672.0071.540.040.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0629.1733.74-0.04-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0652.1754.170.000.01
ButlerBE0.050.0669.5767.150.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0634.7840.91-0.03-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0664.0062.090.010.01
IowaB100.050.0682.6180.550.030.04
MarquetteBE0.100.0662.5056.050.020.01
Penn St.B100.100.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0675.0070.990.020.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0673.9169.970.020.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0625.0023.40-0.05-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.910.040.05
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0631.8232.69-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.830.010.00
FloridaSEC0.100.0666.6766.320.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.0652.0048.860.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0635.0034.80-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0640.0040.31-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0672.7366.400.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.0620.8324.09-0.06-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0652.3850.420.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0659.0955.300.020.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9170.050.020.02
KansasB120.100.0682.6179.190.060.03
Kansas St.B120.100.0660.8758.300.020.01
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.650.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.26-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.34-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0659.0953.180.010.00
WashingtonP120.100.0665.2261.100.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.89-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.940.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.580.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.820.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.930.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.54-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.04-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.790.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.110.040.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.650.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.920.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.43-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.39-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.480.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4841.96-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.790.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.33-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.880.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0364.0062.060.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0360.0055.500.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.37-0.03-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.73-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.110.040.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0327.2731.05-0.02-0.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.050.030.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.03-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.46-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.470.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.110.020.01
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.67-0.03-0.01