Northern Kentucky

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	264.0
Current RPI:	264
Expected SOS:	316
Current SOS:	316
Current Record:	11-16
Expected Record:	11-16
Current Conf Record:	9-9
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-9
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	283
Expected OOC SOS:	297

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-16	264.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	65-61	L	0%
11-15	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	N	56-76	L	0%
11-17	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	N	56-52	L	0%
11-18	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	69-58	L	0%
12-1	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	A	70-43	L	0%
12-4	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	75-69	L	0%
12-20	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	A	52-54	W	100%
12-22	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	46-55	W	100%
12-31	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	53-51	L	0%
1-2	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	52-65	W	100%
1-5	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	54-60	L	0%
1-7	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	44-49	L	0%
1-11	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	67-53	W	100%
1-17	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	71-59	L	0%
1-19	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	73-54	L	0%
1-24	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	63-46	W	100%
1-26	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	64-53	W	100%
1-31	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	68-70	W	100%
2-2	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	65-70	W	100%
2-8	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	76-58	L	0%
2-14	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	53-60	L	0%
2-16	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	46-62	L	0%
2-21	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	54-64	W	100%
2-23	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	63-46	L	0%
2-28	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	72-45	W	100%
3-2	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	66-62	W	100%
3-14	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	73-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Kentucky	ASun	26.36	26.36	45.60	45.60	-2.32	-2.32
Mercer	ASun	4.86	4.86	66.67	66.67	1.62	1.62
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.86	4.86	66.67	66.67	1.62	1.62
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.82	4.82	44.83	44.83	-0.50	-0.50
Stetson	ASun	4.79	4.79	42.86	42.86	-0.68	-0.68
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.77	4.77	27.59	27.59	-2.14	-2.14
North Florida	ASun	4.73	4.73	41.38	41.38	-0.82	-0.82
Jacksonville	ASun	4.73	4.73	39.29	39.29	-1.01	-1.01
Lipscomb	ASun	4.72	4.72	37.04	37.04	-1.22	-1.22
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.67	4.67	10.71	10.71	-3.67	-3.67
San Diego	WCC	2.01	2.01	41.94	41.94	-0.32	-0.32
San Francisco	WCC	1.97	1.97	42.86	42.86	-0.28	-0.28
Siena	MAAC	1.94	1.94	22.58	22.58	-1.07	-1.07
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.94	1.94	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
Tulsa	CUSA	1.91	1.91	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	1.91	1.91	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Navy	Pat	1.88	1.88	24.14	24.14	-0.97	-0.97
Ohio St.	B10	1.85	1.85	78.12	78.12	1.04	1.04
Texas Tech	B12	1.85	1.85	33.33	33.33	-0.62	-0.62
Memphis	CUSA	0.18	0.18	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Brigham Young	WCC	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Portland	WCC	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.18	0.18	81.82	81.82	0.12	0.12
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.18	0.18	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Georgia	SEC	0.18	0.18	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Kansas St.	B12	0.18	0.18	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.15	81.25	81.25	0.09	0.09
Florida St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	93.75	93.75	0.11	0.11
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.06	79.31	79.31	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00