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Through games of Mar 3, 2015.


Northern Kentucky

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:258.3
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:226
Current SOS:225
Current Record:11-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:7-8
Expected Conf Record:7-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17258.3100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wisconsin (5.2)B10A62-31L0%0.0
11-16Nebraska (123.6)B10A80-61L0%0.0
11-19North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH68-55W100%0.0
11-26Eastern Washington (94.1)BSkyA81-60L0%0.0
11-29Idaho (235.6)BSkyA74-79W100%0.0
12-3Tennessee Martin (167.4)OVCH56-71L0%0.0
12-7West Virginia (21.0)B12H42-67L0%0.0
12-16Chattanooga (100.6)SCA93-81L0%0.0
12-19Morehead St. (219.6)OVCA60-83W100%0.0
12-22Idaho (235.6)BSkyH81-68W100%0.0
12-27Northwestern (113.4)B10A76-55L0%0.0
12-31Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzA78-74L0%0.0
1-3Toledo (74.8)MACH55-57L0%0.0
1-10Lipscomb (273.6)ASunA80-61L0%0.0
1-14Kennesaw St. (320.1)ASunH76-72W100%0.0
1-17USC Upstate (224.3)ASunA65-66W100%0.0
1-22North Florida (172.9)ASunH66-74L0%0.0
1-24Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH81-59W100%0.0
1-29Stetson (338.2)ASunA85-75L0%0.0
1-31Florida Gulf Coast (129.8)ASunA74-64L0%0.0
2-7Lipscomb (273.6)ASunH77-60W100%0.0
2-12Florida Gulf Coast (129.8)ASunH59-65L0%0.0
2-14Stetson (338.2)ASunH82-57W100%0.0
2-19Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA83-75L0%0.0
2-21North Florida (172.9)ASunA88-69L0%0.0
2-26Kennesaw St. (320.1)ASunA53-78W100%0.0
2-28USC Upstate (224.3)ASunH84-65W100%0.0
3-3Lipscomb (273.6)ASunH73-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern KentuckyASun26.5326.5139.5239.52-5.56-5.56
LipscombASun6.146.1437.5037.50-1.53-1.53
Kennesaw St.ASun4.524.5228.5728.57-1.94-1.94
USC UpstateASun4.514.5169.2369.231.741.74
North FloridaASun4.494.4959.2659.260.830.83
JacksonvilleASun4.464.4622.2222.22-2.48-2.48
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.454.4565.3865.381.371.37
StetsonASun4.454.4519.2319.23-2.74-2.74
IdahoBSky3.643.6447.8348.46-0.16-0.11
ChattanoogaSC1.981.9767.8667.860.710.70
NorthwesternB101.941.9348.2847.05-0.07-0.11
WisconsinB101.941.9389.2987.591.521.45
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.931.9268.0068.390.690.71
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.911.9125.9325.08-0.92-0.95
NebraskaB101.911.9144.4443.08-0.21-0.26
Tennessee MartinOVC1.851.8557.6957.690.280.28
Youngstown St.Horz1.851.8525.0025.00-0.92-0.92
Morehead St.OVC1.821.8246.4346.43-0.13-0.13
ToledoMAC1.791.7962.0761.760.430.42
West VirginiaB121.791.7972.4172.330.800.80
Florida A&MMEAC0.380.383.574.54-0.35-0.34
Austin PeayOVC0.360.3621.4321.43-0.20-0.20
Tennessee TechOVC0.350.3535.7135.71-0.10-0.10
BelmontOVC0.290.2964.2964.290.080.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.2828.5729.92-0.12-0.11
Tennessee St.OVC0.250.2510.3410.34-0.20-0.20
FIUCUSA0.250.2540.7440.34-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.220.2466.6767.370.070.08
IllinoisB100.180.2162.0761.980.040.05
Idaho St.BSky0.110.2015.3816.35-0.07-0.13
MontanaBSky0.210.2057.6958.440.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.210.2021.4321.45-0.12-0.11
Portland St.BSky0.210.2050.0049.000.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.2068.0066.540.080.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.2067.8667.860.070.07
Weber St.BSky0.110.2040.0040.15-0.02-0.04
Green BayHorz0.190.1875.0075.000.090.09
SamfordSC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.160.1883.3382.770.100.12
Kent St.MAC0.180.1865.5265.390.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1646.1547.41-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.160.1660.0060.870.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.160.1650.0049.980.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.150.1570.0069.370.060.06
ElonCAA0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.120.1572.4172.030.060.07
PurdueB100.150.1565.5264.170.050.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1557.1456.740.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1353.8554.390.010.01
UCFAmer0.130.1340.7440.68-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1353.5754.710.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1324.0024.99-0.07-0.06
FurmanSC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
IPFWSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1339.2939.32-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1244.4444.64-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
OhioMAC0.130.1232.1432.89-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
CaliforniaP120.120.1258.6255.600.020.01
IndianaB100.130.1263.3362.760.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1276.0075.230.060.06
MichiganB100.120.1246.4347.81-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.120.1265.5265.430.040.04
Penn St.B100.120.1251.7249.590.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.100.1046.4346.73-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1027.5927.74-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.100.1046.1547.66-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1057.1457.410.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.110.1022.2222.14-0.06-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1030.7731.72-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.100.1085.7185.710.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.100.0974.0775.610.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.0942.8642.76-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0939.2940.08-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0948.1548.34-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.0060.240.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0990.0090.000.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
UABCUSA0.090.0953.5754.400.010.01
VMISC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0953.8553.590.000.01
RutgersB100.090.0933.3332.69-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0968.9768.880.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0957.1456.690.010.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0780.0079.430.040.04
Washington St.P120.070.0742.8641.44-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0724.0024.00-0.04-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.6757.720.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0625.9325.32-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0676.9276.720.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0670.8368.840.030.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.060.0658.6257.150.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0658.6256.800.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0662.9664.240.020.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0662.0761.400.020.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0670.3768.770.030.02
XavierBE0.060.0660.0060.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0638.4639.08-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0639.2940.47-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0655.1754.370.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0637.0437.16-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0650.0048.490.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.4836.59-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0676.9277.690.020.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0625.9327.44-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.0026.97-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.067.417.66-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.9768.280.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0633.3331.66-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.0020.58-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0615.3814.77-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0660.0059.110.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.060.0658.6257.940.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0622.2223.22-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.060.0672.4173.240.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0668.9769.160.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0689.6688.420.050.04
Iowa St.B120.060.0672.4172.010.030.03
KansasB120.060.0680.0078.510.040.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0650.0048.800.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0641.3841.54-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0659.2658.600.010.01
TCUB120.060.0658.6257.110.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0643.3342.03-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0376.0074.340.020.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.0047.71-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0378.5778.540.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0358.6260.310.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0330.7731.10-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.5752.310.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.86-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0344.8346.88-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.2222.87-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0342.8643.44-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.5265.850.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0348.1548.07-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.8676.590.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0350.0050.780.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0324.1423.69-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0357.1457.240.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.5779.280.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0335.7134.54-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.5728.70-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0368.9768.960.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.5754.430.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0343.3342.98-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.7160.860.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0359.0960.700.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.3771.010.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0337.9338.69-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0370.3768.760.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0340.7438.91-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0318.5217.91-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0360.7160.310.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0329.6328.86-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.8668.360.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0331.8231.52-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0372.4171.340.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0337.5039.77-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0321.7424.09-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.030.0372.4171.810.010.01
VCUA100.030.0372.4172.030.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.10-0.01-0.01