live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Northern Kentucky

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:176.9
Current RPI:174
Expected SOS:224
Current SOS:237
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-662.70.03%
22-765.30.03%
21-886.10.39%
20-996.71.26%
19-10110.63.70%
18-11125.48.22%
17-12142.012.15%
16-13159.117.53%
15-14177.617.67%
14-15196.715.98%
13-16214.711.21%
12-17233.06.66%
11-18249.93.37%
10-19267.81.15%
9-20283.10.49%
8-21298.20.11%
7-22304.70.03%
6-23329.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Illinois (134.7)B10A79-64L0%0.0
11-18Austin Peay (212.5)OVCN69-77L0%0.0
11-19Delaware (225.1)CAAN53-74W100%0.0
11-20Miami OH (271.3)MACA70-79W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACH74-82L0%0.0
11-30Morehead St. (211.9)OVCA79-84W100%0.0
12-3Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACA0-068%5.8
12-7Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCH0-070%6.2
12-10Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCA0-057%2.1
12-18Eastern Washington (219.8)BSkyH0-071%6.5
12-23West Virginia (16.0)B12A0-01%-28.0
12-29Detroit (301.2)HorzA0-068%5.5
12-31Oakland (89.5)HorzA0-015%-12.3
1-5Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzH0-074%7.7
1-7Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzH0-076%8.7
1-10Green Bay (161.8)HorzA0-037%-4.1
1-12Milwaukee (251.6)HorzA0-058%2.5
1-20Oakland (89.5)HorzH0-031%-6.1
1-22Detroit (301.2)HorzH0-084%11.7
1-27Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzA0-043%-2.2
1-29Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA0-019%-10.4
2-4Wright St. (152.2)HorzA0-037%-3.9
2-9Green Bay (161.8)HorzH0-057%2.1
2-11Milwaukee (251.6)HorzH0-076%8.7
2-16Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzA0-058%2.5
2-18Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzA0-055%1.5
2-21Wright St. (152.2)HorzH0-057%2.2
2-24Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzH0-063%4.0
2-26Valparaiso (74.9)HorzH0-036%-4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern KentuckyHorz29.4826.4055.8854.373.472.31
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.4250.0050.520.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.694.4271.4355.970.300.53
DetroitHorz0.604.420.0019.15-0.60-2.73
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.4033.3333.18-0.00-1.48
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4085.7174.590.002.16
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.3916.6730.09-0.00-1.75
Green BayHorz0.004.3933.3348.37-0.00-0.14
OaklandHorz0.004.3983.3378.530.002.51
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.3942.8637.75-0.00-1.08
Austin PeayOVC9.861.9425.0039.49-4.93-0.41
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.9450.0044.010.00-0.23
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.601.9150.0038.260.00-0.45
Morehead St.OVC8.331.8525.0043.54-4.17-0.24
Miami OHMAC10.001.8460.0034.192.00-0.58
IllinoisB108.331.8450.0040.680.00-0.34
DelawareCAA9.861.7850.0042.100.00-0.28
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.001.7666.6752.260.000.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.760.0038.61-0.00-0.40
North Carolina CentralMEAC8.331.7560.0074.421.670.86
West VirginiaB120.601.7583.3379.930.401.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.4042.8661.90-0.000.09
BelmontOVC0.000.3340.0061.37-0.000.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.2857.1440.590.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2875.0054.320.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2733.3343.64-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.2742.8650.36-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.210.0017.30-0.00-0.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2166.6754.420.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.2166.6756.360.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1914.2928.66-0.00-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.690.180.0022.69-0.69-0.10
Kent St.MAC0.000.1850.0051.820.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.1880.0068.320.000.06
Southern UtahBSky0.000.180.0023.26-0.00-0.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1657.1447.320.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1683.3370.360.000.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1516.6731.91-0.00-0.06
PurdueB100.000.1571.4374.450.000.07
Fort WayneSum0.830.1566.6770.930.280.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1583.3380.700.000.09
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1516.6736.45-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.1580.0035.960.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1550.0061.590.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1216.6736.35-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.690.1250.0045.920.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0018.22-0.00-0.08
Ohio St.B100.690.1285.7172.660.500.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1275.0064.960.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.1283.3369.840.000.05
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1233.3341.52-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1283.3358.030.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1257.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1214.2928.15-0.00-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1242.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1225.0039.28-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1271.4356.050.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1257.1459.480.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0086.250.000.08
MontanaBSky0.000.1214.2947.44-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.1250.0062.460.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.1262.5043.960.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1285.7155.890.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.26-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.830.0914.2933.07-0.60-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.23-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.32-0.00-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.830.0933.3340.39-0.28-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0034.18-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0024.19-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.77-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.830.0950.0029.280.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.0983.3361.150.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0983.3375.060.000.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0916.6727.03-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3353.29-0.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0983.3350.740.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.600.0985.7162.410.430.02
WisconsinB100.000.0975.0073.840.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0933.3338.19-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0950.0057.480.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0950.0052.330.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0971.4366.220.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0971.4368.660.000.03
TexasB120.000.0950.0036.240.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA1.530.0683.3359.601.020.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.690.0616.6718.96-0.46-0.04
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0620.0054.94-0.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.690.030.0042.55-0.69-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.830.0385.7155.550.600.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
DaytonA100.830.0366.6772.440.280.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.690.0328.5734.18-0.30-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
La SalleA100.830.0360.0051.780.170.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.600.0371.4350.570.260.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
WinthropBSth0.600.0360.0070.500.120.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02