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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Northern Kentucky

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:259.1
Current RPI:227
Expected SOS:257
Current SOS:194
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:241
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-890.30.03%
18-9106.00.07%
17-10133.80.37%
16-11154.51.10%
15-12174.22.66%
14-13195.26.17%
13-14214.510.58%
12-15236.314.94%
11-16257.018.27%
10-17277.217.92%
9-18294.813.16%
8-19310.78.83%
7-20322.43.92%
6-21333.41.48%
5-22339.80.34%
4-23345.10.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wisconsin (7.5)B10A62-31L0%0.0
11-16Nebraska (85.4)B10A80-61L0%0.0
11-19North Carolina A&T (333.3)MEACH68-55W100%0.0
11-26Eastern Washington (68.3)BSkyA0-08%-16.7
11-29Idaho (242.1)BSkyA0-032%-5.5
12-3Tennessee Martin (311.7)OVCH0-074%7.7
12-7West Virginia (24.9)B12H0-010%-15.7
12-16Chattanooga (240.3)SCA0-032%-5.6
12-19Morehead St. (165.2)OVCA0-017%-11.3
12-22Idaho (242.1)BSkyH0-056%1.7
12-27Northwestern (172.6)B10A0-019%-10.5
12-31Youngstown St. (260.4)HorzA0-031%-6.0
1-3Toledo (67.7)MACH0-021%-9.5
1-10Lipscomb (239.9)ASunA0-031%-6.0
1-14Kennesaw St. (323.5)ASunH0-079%9.5
1-17USC Upstate (238.4)ASunA0-029%-6.7
1-22North Florida (227.1)ASunH0-052%0.6
1-24Jacksonville (332.3)ASunH0-080%10.0
1-29Stetson (306.9)ASunA0-046%-1.2
1-31Florida Gulf Coast (97.7)ASunA0-011%-14.8
2-7Lipscomb (239.9)ASunH0-054%1.2
2-12Florida Gulf Coast (97.7)ASunH0-026%-7.6
2-14Stetson (306.9)ASunH0-069%6.0
2-19Jacksonville (332.3)ASunA0-059%2.8
2-21North Florida (227.1)ASunA0-029%-6.6
2-25Kennesaw St. (323.5)ASunA0-058%2.3
2-28USC Upstate (238.4)ASunH0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern KentuckyASun32.6426.4533.3340.87-10.88-4.83
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.6020.0025.35-0.00-2.27
USC UpstateASun2.784.5966.6753.150.930.29
North FloridaASun0.004.560.0043.83-0.00-0.56
LipscombASun0.004.560.0042.10-0.00-0.72
JacksonvilleASun0.004.530.0023.09-0.00-2.44
StetsonASun0.004.530.0032.53-0.00-1.58
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.52100.0073.390.002.11
IdahoBSky0.003.7750.0045.280.00-0.36
ChattanoogaSC2.082.020.0046.11-2.08-0.16
NorthwesternB100.002.02100.0040.100.00-0.40
WisconsinB1016.672.01100.0084.0716.671.37
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.001.9975.0073.680.000.94
North Carolina A&TMEAC16.671.990.0023.50-16.67-1.05
NebraskaB1016.671.9850.0051.060.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.9250.0032.440.00-0.67
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.9240.0037.22-0.00-0.49
Morehead St.OVC0.001.8920.0052.65-0.000.10
ToledoMAC0.001.8550.0064.920.000.55
West VirginiaB120.001.85100.0069.760.000.73
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.410.0021.49-0.00-0.23
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.3466.6745.370.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.310.0033.26-0.00-0.10
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.3025.0039.30-0.00-0.07
FIUCUSA0.000.2850.0043.570.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.2660.0064.030.000.07
BelmontOVC0.000.2475.0071.990.000.11
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.230.0027.43-0.00-0.11
IllinoisB100.000.22100.0065.880.000.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2133.3350.01-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.200.0028.35-0.00-0.09
MontanaBSky0.000.2033.3351.67-0.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.200.0021.27-0.00-0.12
Portland St.BSky0.000.20100.0049.160.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2050.0045.970.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.2025.0053.38-0.000.01
MarylandB100.000.20100.0066.670.000.07
SamfordSC0.000.2040.0039.62-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.1975.0066.130.000.06
Florida St.ACC0.000.1725.0042.98-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.170.0050.64-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.1675.0062.270.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.160.0033.20-0.00-0.06
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0059.940.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.16100.0073.810.000.08
MinnesotaB100.000.1666.6762.260.000.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.150.0055.80-0.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.1433.3323.97-0.00-0.07
UCFAmer0.000.14100.0047.530.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.130.0036.18-0.00-0.04
IPFWSum0.000.1366.6760.760.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0047.400.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1366.6757.340.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1325.0057.73-0.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1320.0034.54-0.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.13100.0079.170.000.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.13100.0043.380.00-0.02
Green BayHorz2.080.1350.0068.360.000.05
MercerSC0.000.1333.3352.75-0.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1380.0057.960.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.130.0029.78-0.00-0.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1375.0068.180.000.05
Penn St.B100.000.1380.0043.930.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.13100.0070.020.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1375.0073.300.000.06
Central MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0053.170.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.1050.0055.630.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1020.0044.69-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.100.0043.39-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1040.0050.01-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.100.0019.76-0.00-0.06
UMKCWAC0.000.1025.0046.39-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC2.080.1075.0063.511.040.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.100.0037.06-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1033.3368.63-0.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0032.95-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1033.3343.01-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.10100.0051.910.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.100.0028.12-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0060.950.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1066.6757.950.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1025.0035.54-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1033.3346.01-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1025.0042.83-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1033.3342.50-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.10100.0060.870.000.02
VMISC0.000.1033.3337.04-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.1080.0076.960.000.05
RutgersB100.000.1066.6735.400.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0050.790.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.47-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6753.220.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0775.0073.930.000.04
MaristMAAC0.000.070.0033.80-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0780.0061.930.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0766.6751.570.000.00
XavierBE0.000.07100.0080.240.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0766.6756.740.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0750.0043.080.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0040.14-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0050.840.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0775.0058.190.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0733.3334.36-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0750.0053.850.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0750.0050.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3335.09-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0750.0066.640.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0066.65-0.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0071.240.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.480.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0733.3328.67-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0733.3333.50-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0066.880.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0066.020.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0020.27-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0716.6730.01-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0035.180.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0022.70-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0026.270.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0750.0054.870.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0766.6768.660.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0740.0059.10-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0775.0066.800.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0725.0040.65-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0069.16-0.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0740.0034.21-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6751.260.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0026.64-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0055.490.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0733.3354.64-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0040.87-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd2.780.060.0021.40-2.78-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0058.760.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0031.92-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0043.250.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0065.950.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0038.08-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.480.000.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.500.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0069.590.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.31-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0666.6732.480.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.100.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0067.390.000.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0675.0057.780.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6758.810.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.770.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.580.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6745.370.00-0.01
BradleyMVC2.780.0333.3322.95-0.93-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0035.87-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0029.05-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.130.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.26-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0056.780.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0360.0050.930.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.25-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.650.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.420.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0041.06-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.410.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3347.25-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3350.07-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA102.780.03100.0059.322.780.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.060.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0064.210.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0062.840.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0044.61-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0069.360.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.67-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.85-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.180.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.56-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6749.970.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.070.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.030.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.180.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0058.710.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0037.46-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0320.0035.82-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0022.57-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.93-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.93-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0375.0068.720.000.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.53-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.80-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.270.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0021.70-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0064.540.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.290.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0054.950.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.810.00-0.01