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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Louisiana St.

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:85.2
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:43
Current Record:13-9
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.64%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:214



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-939.20.28%
20-1050.73.26%
19-1162.013.14%
18-1274.625.11%
17-1387.828.17%
16-14100.619.65%
15-15113.98.32%
14-16127.01.89%
13-17143.10.17%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Nicholls St. (314.5)SlndH96-74W100%0.0
11-15Coastal Carolina (116.0)BSthA71-63L0%0.0
11-17Northwestern (66.2)B10N88-82L0%0.0
11-18Western Kentucky (240.2)SBN76-57W100%0.0
11-20Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCN50-59W100%0.0
11-23South Alabama (196.0)SBH75-79L0%0.0
11-29Houston (233.1)CUSAA58-59W100%0.0
12-3Rutgers (141.7)BEA50-55W100%0.0
12-10Boise St. (176.5)MWCH64-45W100%0.0
12-15UC Irvine (260.2)BWH66-59W100%0.0
12-19Marquette (15.5)BEH67-59W100%0.0
12-22North Texas (203.3)SBA58-67W100%0.0
12-29Grambling (341.3)SWACH69-37W100%0.0
1-2Virginia (39.5)ACCH52-57L0%0.0
1-7Mississippi (70.0)SECH81-55W100%0.0
1-11Alabama (30.4)SECA69-53L0%0.0
1-14Arkansas (65.9)SECA69-60L0%0.0
1-17Auburn (147.6)SECH65-58W100%0.0
1-21Florida (14.9)SECA76-64L0%0.0
1-25Mississippi St. (41.7)SECA76-71L0%0.0
1-28Kentucky (4.3)SECH50-74L0%0.0
2-4Arkansas (65.9)SECH71-65W100%0.0
2-8Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA0-023%-8.2
2-11Alabama (30.4)SECH0-039%-3.1
2-14Mississippi St. (41.7)SECH0-055%1.3
2-18South Carolina (172.1)SECA0-055%1.5
2-22Georgia (132.0)SECH0-076%7.8
2-25Mississippi (70.0)SECA0-044%-1.7
2-29Tennessee (136.4)SECH0-067%4.7
3-3Auburn (147.6)SECA0-060%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana St.SEC26.2526.1357.2955.923.833.09
Mississippi St.SEC2.684.0077.2772.311.461.79
ArkansasSEC4.914.0071.4366.202.101.30
MississippiSEC2.683.9966.6758.750.890.70
AuburnSEC2.583.9759.0950.870.470.07
AlabamaSEC2.573.9666.6768.270.861.45
FloridaSEC2.422.2481.8276.891.541.21
VanderbiltSEC0.352.2469.5765.490.140.69
GeorgiaSEC0.302.2445.4541.81-0.03-0.37
KentuckySEC2.472.2295.6592.322.261.88
South CarolinaSEC0.352.2140.9139.39-0.06-0.47
TennesseeSEC0.242.2145.4545.05-0.02-0.22
GramblingSWAC2.531.8415.7916.31-1.73-1.24
North TexasSB2.481.8152.6352.010.130.07
South AlabamaSB2.431.8150.0050.990.000.04
Georgia TechACC2.431.8140.9143.57-0.44-0.23
MarquetteBE2.321.7882.6178.521.521.01
Western KentuckySB2.381.7636.3635.71-0.65-0.50
HoustonCUSA2.431.7550.0046.280.00-0.13
Nicholls St.Slnd2.321.7226.3224.67-1.10-0.87
RutgersBE2.321.7252.1748.380.10-0.06
NorthwesternB102.321.6960.0053.600.460.12
VirginiaACC2.321.6980.9576.001.440.88
Boise St.MWC2.271.6745.0042.65-0.23-0.24
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.271.6770.5970.810.940.69
UC IrvineBW2.271.6736.8436.62-0.60-0.45
Louisiana MonroeSB0.320.328.708.99-0.27-0.27
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.2550.0058.160.000.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.220.2483.3384.760.140.16
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.270.2154.1754.750.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.150.2136.3639.72-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.260.2128.5730.17-0.11-0.08
Texas ChristianMWC0.270.2057.1449.540.04-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.250.2072.7371.710.120.09
OaklandSum0.260.2048.0050.21-0.010.00
Florida InternationalSB0.220.1933.3337.16-0.07-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.1717.6527.10-0.14-0.08
ClemsonACC0.160.1750.0048.360.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.210.1727.7829.58-0.09-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.150.1786.9683.160.110.11
MarylandACC0.100.1759.0950.820.020.00
Seton HallBE0.150.1665.2263.740.050.05
DenverSB0.210.1570.8372.230.090.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.210.1543.4844.25-0.03-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.160.1585.7182.180.120.10
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1571.4373.350.070.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.1431.8242.13-0.08-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.200.1480.0078.060.120.08
Miami FLACC0.200.1465.0060.020.060.03
North FloridaASun0.150.1445.8346.68-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.150.1441.6738.67-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.200.1472.7366.810.090.05
LouisvilleBE0.190.1478.2672.660.110.06
GeorgetownBE0.150.1480.9577.380.090.07
ConnecticutBE0.150.1468.1863.990.050.04
West VirginiaBE0.140.1365.2265.170.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1237.5038.33-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1219.0525.52-0.10-0.06
TulaneCUSA0.160.1261.9058.590.040.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1241.1842.61-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.160.1260.8759.050.030.02
WinthropBSth0.100.1234.7834.61-0.03-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1255.0054.480.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1217.3924.41-0.07-0.06
Southern MethodistCUSA0.110.1238.1037.86-0.03-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.160.1243.4843.31-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.210.1154.5557.690.020.02
DrakeMVC0.160.1152.1750.090.010.00
DaytonA100.100.1160.8760.960.020.02
PurdueB100.110.1165.2260.580.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1170.8364.420.040.03
Ohio St.B100.100.1186.9685.460.080.08
DePaulBE0.100.1150.0042.830.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.100.1147.8349.03-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1117.3922.00-0.10-0.06
South FloridaBE0.140.1154.5548.600.01-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.050.1169.5765.470.020.03
Notre DameBE0.090.1165.2262.650.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1150.0051.730.000.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.060.0968.1867.640.020.03
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0940.9143.66-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.0918.1821.13-0.11-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.0965.0066.700.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.0916.6723.02-0.07-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.0921.0522.46-0.06-0.05
Texas St.Slnd0.170.0922.2227.62-0.09-0.04
WyomingMWC0.110.0976.1970.730.060.04
UABCUSA0.160.0940.9139.82-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.100.0961.9067.230.020.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.0940.0041.30-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.050.0954.1749.440.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.050.0969.5771.510.020.04
OklahomaB120.150.0859.0954.700.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0830.4326.44-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.100.0886.3683.090.070.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0819.0522.37-0.06-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.050.0856.5255.200.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0847.8343.66-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.100.0890.9183.850.080.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.0852.3857.860.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.0854.5556.090.010.01
PittsburghBE0.090.0860.8758.160.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0856.5250.270.010.00
ArizonaP120.100.0866.6768.550.030.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
SyracuseBE0.100.0895.8392.010.090.07
Texas A&MB120.100.0852.3846.150.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0845.4546.08-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0756.0055.650.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0755.0060.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.0734.7838.77-0.04-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0731.8232.75-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0727.2727.21-0.03-0.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0745.0044.15-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.0644.4441.71-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.0626.3229.79-0.05-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.110.0633.3333.82-0.04-0.02
TexasB120.110.0660.8761.370.020.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.110.0676.1975.940.060.03
Texas TechB120.110.0631.8225.98-0.04-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0650.0056.760.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0627.7829.87-0.03-0.02
PacificBW0.110.0635.0037.47-0.03-0.02
UC DavisBW0.110.060.005.37-0.11-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.060.0642.8639.66-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0655.5658.010.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.060.0658.3359.980.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.069.5211.44-0.05-0.05
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.110.0657.1460.750.020.01
RadfordBSth0.110.068.7013.10-0.09-0.04
IUPUISum0.050.0634.7835.50-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0666.6760.800.020.01
Fresno St.WAC0.110.0639.1344.52-0.02-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0682.6181.440.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.050.0681.8281.030.030.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.0040.78-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0647.6246.46-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0685.7178.050.040.03
SouthernSWAC0.110.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0675.0074.610.030.03
Seattleind0.110.0623.5333.28-0.06-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0656.5254.220.010.00
PortlandWCC0.100.0621.7421.70-0.06-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0647.6248.82-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0662.5062.490.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0656.5253.100.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0638.1042.78-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0635.2939.85-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0657.1453.120.010.00
IllinoisB100.050.0672.7364.430.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0672.7368.280.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.068.7011.67-0.04-0.04
MercerASun0.050.0670.8371.640.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0669.5761.310.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.4540.70-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0610.0014.93-0.04-0.04
Southern CaliforniaP120.000.0625.0025.13-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0682.6180.420.030.03
WoffordSC0.000.0659.0957.930.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0527.2735.02-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0575.0075.780.020.03
Longwoodind0.050.0530.0027.84-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0569.5764.530.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.100.0566.6768.050.030.02
WisconsinB100.100.0575.0073.970.050.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.0535.0039.38-0.03-0.01
XavierA100.000.0565.2263.740.000.02
AkronMAC0.050.0568.1867.910.020.02
CharlotteA100.100.0550.0049.450.00-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.100.0542.8643.45-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0528.0028.91-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0568.1869.680.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.054.359.66-0.05-0.04
Utah St.WAC0.050.0550.0052.930.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0360.8759.760.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0355.0054.800.010.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0359.0957.760.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0340.9144.03-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0325.0028.52-0.03-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.060.0327.2726.95-0.03-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
UCLAP120.060.0354.5556.790.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.060.0380.0076.840.030.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0333.3333.88-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0359.0959.720.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.05-0.03
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
Washington St.P120.060.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0334.7832.06-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3335.97-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0345.4545.70-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6762.650.000.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0387.5085.410.040.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.000.0352.3852.860.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
ElonSC0.000.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0376.0072.500.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.030.01
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0334.7833.46-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0373.9175.490.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.61-0.03-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.26-0.05-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0334.7837.24-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0373.9175.000.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0381.8280.430.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.03-0.02
DavidsonSC0.000.0376.1976.760.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0336.3638.48-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.390.030.02
LafayettePat0.000.0343.4842.95-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.030.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0313.6416.35-0.03-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0034.15-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.60-0.02-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0333.3338.38-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0360.0058.290.010.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0363.6463.160.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01