Austin Peay

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	200.2
Current RPI:	212
Expected SOS:	121
Current SOS:	122
Current Record:	8-16
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	6-6
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	3.16%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC RPI:	216
Expected OOC SOS:	22

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	141.8	0.08%
13-17	161.1	2.74%
12-18	180.0	21.28%
11-19	197.4	38.67%
10-20	213.4	27.67%
9-21	228.5	8.47%
8-22	245.4	1.08%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	80-71	L	0%	0.0
11-15	California (42.4)	P12	A	72-55	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	A	71-59	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	A	82-72	L	0%	0.0
11-22	George Washington (196.4)	A10	N	52-54	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	N	94-93	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	H	70-90	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	A	67-59	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	A	91-60	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	86-82	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Tennessee (136.4)	SEC	A	70-74	W	100%	0.0
12-21	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	H	67-77	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Eastern Kentucky (207.4)	OVC	A	67-65	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Morehead St. (187.8)	OVC	A	68-64	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Murray St. (30.1)	OVC	H	75-87	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Eastern Kentucky (207.4)	OVC	H	80-65	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Jacksonville St. (252.5)	OVC	H	60-57	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Tennessee St. (155.4)	OVC	H	69-63	W	100%	0.0
1-19	SIU Edwardsville (304.4)	OVC	A	67-80	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Eastern Illinois (293.4)	OVC	A	64-76	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Southeast Missouri St. (242.4)	OVC	A	65-60	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	H	92-73	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Tennessee St. (155.4)	OVC	A	77-57	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Tennessee Tech (136.1)	OVC	H	88-94	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	A	0-0		5%	-17.9
2-11	Murray St. (30.1)	OVC	A	0-0		9%	-14.7
2-15	Morehead St. (187.8)	OVC	H	0-0		68%	5.0
2-18	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	0-0		54%	1.2
2-23	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	A	0-0		73%	6.8
2-25	Southeast Missouri St. (242.4)	OVC	H	0-0		70%	5.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Austin Peay	OVC	26.37	26.35	34.62	36.87	-8.11	-6.92
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.92	4.12	4.55	9.39	-2.66	-3.35
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.85	4.11	57.14	53.34	0.69	0.27
Murray St.	OVC	2.74	4.08	100.00	94.47	2.74	3.62
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.69	4.00	45.00	45.74	-0.27	-0.34
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.74	3.97	50.00	51.86	0.00	0.15
Morehead St.	OVC	2.65	3.97	42.86	45.52	-0.38	-0.36
Belmont	ASun	2.48	3.59	68.18	71.55	0.90	1.55
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.44	3.59	81.82	83.64	2.82	2.41
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.66	2.45	35.00	35.79	-0.80	-0.70
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.75	2.45	59.09	58.27	0.50	0.41
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.70	2.42	36.36	39.85	-0.74	-0.49
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.73	2.41	27.78	30.94	-1.21	-0.92
Lipscomb	ASun	2.42	1.99	40.91	41.81	-0.44	-0.33
Arkansas St.	SB	2.32	1.91	39.13	39.65	-0.50	-0.39
Memphis	CUSA	2.32	1.87	68.18	70.56	0.84	0.77
Detroit	Horz	2.18	1.78	45.45	47.21	-0.20	-0.10
Bowling Green	MAC	2.17	1.78	45.00	47.00	-0.22	-0.11
George Washington	A10	2.22	1.75	31.82	29.74	-0.81	-0.71
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	1.72	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.06
Tennessee	SEC	2.17	1.72	47.62	46.20	-0.10	-0.13
California	P12	2.13	1.69	73.91	73.76	1.02	0.81
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.08	1.67	80.00	80.11	1.25	1.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.19	0.30	34.78	34.48	-0.06	-0.09
UAB	CUSA	0.27	0.26	40.91	39.82	-0.05	-0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.26	8.70	11.67	-0.11	-0.20
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.23	30.00	34.15	-0.06	-0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.23	54.55	56.09	0.02	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.18	0.23	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.18	0.20	68.18	67.91	0.07	0.07
Florida International	SB	0.26	0.20	33.33	37.16	-0.09	-0.05
Troy	SB	0.22	0.20	28.57	30.17	-0.09	-0.08
Marshall	CUSA	0.18	0.19	59.09	59.72	0.03	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.15	0.18	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.19	0.18	27.78	29.87	-0.08	-0.07
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.22	0.17	78.26	72.34	0.13	0.08
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.17	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.17	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.18	0.17	17.39	22.00	-0.12	-0.09
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.17	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.18	0.17	45.83	46.68	-0.02	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.17	31.82	31.31	-0.03	-0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.15	30.00	30.06	-0.04	-0.06
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.15	19.05	21.29	-0.09	-0.09
Valparaiso	Horz	0.14	0.15	65.22	63.61	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.22	0.14	35.29	39.85	-0.07	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	71.43	69.05	0.06	0.06
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.14	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	81.82	77.20	0.09	0.08
South Alabama	SB	0.17	0.14	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.14	8.70	8.99	-0.11	-0.12
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.14	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.22	0.14	70.83	72.23	0.09	0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.12	25.00	37.58	-0.07	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.12	62.50	62.06	0.04	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.12	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.12	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.07
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.12	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.12	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.12	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.12	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.14	0.12	85.71	82.18	0.10	0.08
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.12	68.18	69.68	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.13	0.12	65.22	65.17	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.13	0.12	34.78	35.20	-0.04	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.12	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.12	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.12	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.18	0.12	77.27	77.67	0.10	0.06
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.12	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.11	26.32	28.83	-0.06	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.11	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.17	0.11	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.11	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.11	78.26	72.66	0.08	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.13	0.11	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.19	0.11	45.45	41.20	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.09	5.26	7.30	-0.09	-0.08
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.04	0.09	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.07
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.09	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.06	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.09	0.09	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	40.91	43.66	-0.02	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.57	65.15	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.13	0.09	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.08	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.08	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.08	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.08	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.00	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
Maine	AE	0.10	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.06	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.06	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.06	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.06	73.91	74.91	0.04	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.04	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.06	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.06	80.00	76.84	0.05	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.05	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.05	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.04	0.05	66.67	62.65	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.05	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.04	0.05	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.05	19.05	25.52	-0.05	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.05	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.05	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.05	73.91	75.49	0.04	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.04	0.05	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.04	0.05	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.04	0.05	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.04	0.05	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.00	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.00	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.00	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.00	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.00	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.00	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.00	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.00	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.02	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.04	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.04	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.04	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.04	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.04	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.04	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.04	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.04	0.03	55.56	58.01	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.04	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.04	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00