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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:318.0
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:220
Current SOS:220
Current Record:6-22
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-10
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:289
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22318.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA77-70L0%0.0
11-19Samford (305.0)SCA68-67L0%0.0
11-21Illinois (73.0)B10A107-66L0%0.0
11-24Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA61-57L0%0.0
11-27Brown (248.0)IvyN58-79W100%0.0
11-28Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndN83-62L0%0.0
12-6Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA71-49L0%0.0
12-13Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH59-68L0%0.0
12-15Troy (313.0)SBH73-70W100%0.0
12-21Lipscomb (271.0)ASunA69-63L0%0.0
12-31North Florida (162.0)ASunH65-60W100%0.0
1-3Mississippi (60.0)SECA92-63L0%0.0
1-8Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA71-59L0%0.0
1-10Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA72-56L0%0.0
1-15Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH69-68W100%0.0
1-17Belmont (105.0)OVCH83-89L0%0.0
1-22SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA69-65L0%0.0
1-24Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA52-56W100%0.0
1-28Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH69-82L0%0.0
1-31Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH64-70L0%0.0
2-5Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH64-76L0%0.0
2-7Murray St. (63.0)OVCH72-82L0%0.0
2-12Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH55-66L0%0.0
2-14Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCA67-61L0%0.0
2-21Murray St. (63.0)OVCA89-54L0%0.0
2-23Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA76-64L0%0.0
2-26SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH64-61W100%0.0
2-28Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA89-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC26.2426.2420.0020.00-15.74-15.74
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.394.3951.8551.850.160.16
Murray St.OVC4.384.3882.1482.142.822.82
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.344.3434.6234.62-1.34-1.34
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.344.3437.5037.50-1.09-1.09
Tennessee MartinOVC4.294.2953.8553.850.330.33
LipscombASun3.783.7834.6234.62-1.16-1.16
BelmontOVC2.722.7266.6766.670.910.91
Morehead St.OVC2.602.6045.1645.16-0.25-0.25
Tennessee St.OVC2.532.5310.7110.71-1.98-1.98
Tennessee TechOVC2.522.5233.3333.33-0.84-0.84
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.432.4359.2659.260.450.45
Jacksonville St.OVC2.412.4132.1432.14-0.86-0.86
Southern IllinoisMVC2.102.1032.2632.26-0.74-0.74
North FloridaASun2.042.0466.6766.670.680.68
Indiana St.MVC1.961.9644.8344.83-0.20-0.20
MississippiSEC1.911.9161.2961.290.430.43
Western KentuckyCUSA1.901.9058.6258.620.330.33
IllinoisB101.851.8558.0658.060.300.30
BrownIvy1.841.8439.2939.29-0.40-0.40
TroySB1.811.8130.7730.77-0.70-0.70
SamfordSC1.791.7936.6736.67-0.48-0.48
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.791.7986.2186.211.291.29
Northern KentuckyASun0.340.3439.2939.29-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
Missouri St.MVC0.270.2731.0331.03-0.10-0.10
JacksonvilleASun0.240.2424.1424.14-0.13-0.13
Illinois St.MVC0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
StetsonASun0.210.2121.4321.43-0.12-0.12
USC UpstateASun0.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
MissouriSEC0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
DrakeMVC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1790.9190.910.140.14
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1528.5728.57-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1552.9452.940.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1487.1087.100.110.11
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Saint LouisA100.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
ButlerBE0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
NebraskaB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
CampbellBSth0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
CreightonBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0955.5655.560.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
AmericanPat0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.030.03
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02