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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:230.5
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:244
Current SOS:210
Current Record:10-15
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:154



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15204.812.11%
13-16221.035.71%
12-17237.736.38%
11-18253.814.08%
10-19267.21.71%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Vanderbilt (53.1)SECA80-41L0%0.0
11-16Indiana (31.1)B10A102-76L0%0.0
11-18IPFW (82.2)SumH77-80L0%0.0
11-21Cal Poly (220.9)BWN73-64L0%0.0
11-22Northern Colorado (310.6)BSkyA76-91W100%0.0
11-28Samford (252.8)SCH74-73W100%0.0
12-2Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndA61-48L0%0.0
12-5Troy (298.2)SBA71-80W100%0.0
12-12IPFW (82.2)SumA85-68L0%0.0
12-16North Florida (151.9)ASunA80-70L0%0.0
12-20Lipscomb (267.3)ASunA84-92W100%0.0
12-22Wofford (179.1)SCH84-77W100%0.0
12-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndH70-74L0%0.0
1-2Eastern Kentucky (202.5)OVCH70-79L0%0.0
1-7Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCH73-54W100%0.0
1-9Tennessee Tech (110.1)OVCH66-72L0%0.0
1-14Tennessee St. (148.9)OVCA66-52L0%0.0
1-16Belmont (81.5)OVCA76-58L0%0.0
1-21SIU Edwardsville (318.9)OVCH90-86W100%0.0
1-23Eastern Illinois (264.5)OVCH86-87L0%0.0
1-27Morehead St. (153.3)OVCA75-65L0%0.0
1-30Southeast Missouri St. (333.6)OVCA80-86W100%0.0
2-4Tennessee Martin (239.0)OVCA86-77L0%0.0
2-6Murray St. (180.5)OVCA73-76W100%0.0
2-10Eastern Illinois (264.5)OVCA70-79W100%0.0
2-13Tennessee Martin (239.0)OVCH0-058%2.3
2-20Murray St. (180.5)OVCH0-047%-0.9
2-25SIU Edwardsville (318.9)OVCA0-053%0.9
2-27Southeast Missouri St. (333.6)OVCH0-084%10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC26.3426.3244.6345.43-2.83-2.40
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.594.1917.3919.19-1.69-2.58
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.464.1638.1040.34-1.06-0.80
Tennessee MartinOVC2.464.1447.8348.99-0.11-0.08
Murray St.OVC2.514.1350.0052.840.000.23
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.514.1313.6415.85-1.82-2.82
IPFWSum4.133.5768.1866.331.501.17
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.053.4873.6870.281.921.41
Jacksonville St.OVC2.592.4125.0025.02-1.30-1.20
BelmontOVC2.592.4066.6765.450.860.74
Tennessee St.OVC2.502.3766.6763.860.830.66
Tennessee TechOVC2.552.3763.6462.960.700.61
Morehead St.OVC2.542.3750.0051.640.000.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.512.3548.0047.57-0.10-0.11
LipscombASun2.211.9129.1731.58-0.92-0.70
IndianaB102.211.8879.1774.881.290.94
Cal PolyBW2.181.8525.0031.57-1.09-0.68
SamfordSC2.171.8441.6743.17-0.36-0.25
WoffordSC2.121.8147.8349.84-0.09-0.01
North FloridaASun2.041.7860.8762.780.440.46
Northern ColoradoBSky2.041.7528.5727.44-0.87-0.79
TroySB2.041.7523.8125.24-1.07-0.87
VanderbiltSEC2.041.7556.5258.640.270.30
Western IllinoisSum0.260.2531.5832.03-0.09-0.09
StetsonASun0.300.2422.7327.37-0.16-0.11
Kennesaw St.ASun0.290.2425.0026.38-0.14-0.11
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2158.3358.580.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.250.2160.8760.240.050.04
ChattanoogaSC0.250.2183.3383.710.160.14
JacksonvilleASun0.240.2147.8348.57-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1973.0872.610.060.09
Saint LouisA100.170.1834.7832.39-0.05-0.06
FurmanSC0.220.1856.0054.430.030.02
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1840.9138.83-0.03-0.04
DenverSum0.170.1852.0049.300.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.210.1841.6742.39-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1826.0928.41-0.08-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.170.1631.8235.12-0.06-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1636.8442.87-0.03-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1672.0073.080.060.07
Green BayHorz0.170.1656.5257.690.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1660.8762.470.030.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1514.2915.47-0.09-0.11
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1531.8234.54-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1575.0075.350.090.08
HoustonAmer0.130.1370.8367.980.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1356.0054.080.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1368.1867.730.050.04
Weber St.BSky0.130.1366.6769.760.040.05
MarshallCUSA0.170.1250.0051.150.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1235.0034.87-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1250.0049.890.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1255.5652.480.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1226.3232.42-0.05-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1245.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1272.2275.710.040.06
DaytonA100.130.1287.5083.730.100.08
MississippiSEC0.130.1262.5058.940.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.170.1234.7832.89-0.05-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1250.0052.880.000.01
IdahoBSky0.180.1256.5255.330.020.01
NJITASun0.120.1256.0055.640.010.01
Texas St.SB0.140.1240.0038.87-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.120.1221.7422.42-0.07-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1240.0040.34-0.03-0.02
TexasB120.180.1266.6762.200.060.03
IUPUISum0.080.1238.4638.50-0.02-0.03
MercerSC0.160.1266.6767.110.050.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1260.8759.830.040.02
South AlabamaSB0.130.1236.3636.29-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.170.1244.0043.56-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.1273.9174.640.040.06
The CitadelSC0.120.1230.4329.49-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1282.6183.030.110.08
VMISC0.120.1219.0519.67-0.08-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.1243.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1226.0927.89-0.06-0.05
WisconsinB100.180.1262.5056.990.040.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.0945.8341.64-0.01-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0941.6741.18-0.01-0.02
UTSACUSA0.140.0913.0412.96-0.11-0.07
USCP120.090.0975.0071.140.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.130.0960.8757.170.030.01
Portland St.BSky0.040.0930.0035.92-0.02-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0959.0955.160.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.0950.0052.940.000.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0939.1342.98-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.0922.2231.13-0.08-0.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0964.0062.090.020.02
IowaB100.080.0979.1778.890.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0048.120.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.120.0931.8232.68-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0945.8344.06-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0952.0050.770.000.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0875.0072.620.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0650.0045.860.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0633.3330.63-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0631.8230.08-0.02-0.03
HawaiiBW0.100.0685.0083.450.070.04
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0647.8351.93-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.040.0658.3359.310.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0637.5037.41-0.01-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.24-0.04-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.040.0658.3360.910.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0638.1035.34-0.01-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0669.5770.020.020.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0645.4551.69-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.040.0654.1753.810.000.00
UMBCAE0.090.0623.0825.89-0.05-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0630.0031.76-0.04-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0623.8129.52-0.05-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0654.5555.550.000.01
ElonCAA0.100.0650.0050.080.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0647.6248.05-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.100.0630.0029.17-0.04-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0660.0062.700.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0643.4844.81-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0618.1821.06-0.06-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.050.0645.0048.15-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0617.6526.60-0.06-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0614.2924.87-0.07-0.03
ButlerBE0.040.0670.8368.990.020.02
CampbellBSth0.040.0631.8232.07-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0683.3382.090.030.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0625.0025.09-0.04-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0679.1776.000.050.03
UNLVMWC0.090.0652.1755.080.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0614.2914.92-0.06-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0625.0028.14-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0686.3684.240.070.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0631.8236.13-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0642.8641.32-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.660.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0672.0071.330.020.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0660.0062.260.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0645.4549.06-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.080.0664.0064.470.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.0631.8232.47-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0645.8342.30-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.040.0660.8755.310.010.01
UABCUSA0.090.0683.3379.820.060.04
UMKCWAC0.040.0628.5732.73-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.340.020.03
UtahP120.080.0670.8368.530.030.02
KansasB120.090.0682.6179.210.060.03
LSUSEC0.080.0662.5059.070.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0645.4546.07-0.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.080.0660.8755.980.020.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0633.3330.27-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0686.9680.430.060.04
AuburnSEC0.040.0639.1335.44-0.01-0.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0666.6766.320.010.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0625.0027.25-0.04-0.03
PurdueB100.040.0680.0077.900.020.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0625.0023.43-0.04-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0641.6739.90-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.040.0361.9058.180.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.560.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.12-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0350.0054.220.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0320.0022.24-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0365.2268.610.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0365.2263.630.010.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.600.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
UCLAP120.050.0354.1752.980.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0370.8365.570.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0354.5552.530.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0340.0043.21-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.040.0324.0024.55-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.039.5212.09-0.04-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0340.0045.19-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0340.0043.49-0.01-0.00
VCUA100.040.0370.8371.030.020.01
AkronMAC0.040.0382.6181.130.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.5733.29-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0356.0053.630.000.00
BYUWCC0.040.0368.0070.260.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.71-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.040.0358.3358.410.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.78-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0357.1457.670.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0368.1865.570.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0354.1751.980.000.00
HarvardIvy0.040.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0364.0057.890.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0383.3378.390.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0348.0048.59-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0323.8125.48-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0373.6875.880.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0333.3332.04-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.090.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.72-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.910.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.040.0366.6763.790.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.63-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.7424.59-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0345.4543.17-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.68-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0352.1754.140.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0377.2773.930.020.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0379.1778.100.020.02
BaylorB120.040.0373.9168.450.020.01
CreightonBE0.040.0364.0062.070.010.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0345.4543.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.040.0375.0071.810.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0343.4845.20-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.680.000.02
MichiganB100.040.0370.8366.750.020.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0380.0081.550.000.02
Notre DameACC0.040.0370.8367.910.020.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0360.0055.570.010.00
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.33-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.040.0382.6183.030.030.02