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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:184.0
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:200
Current SOS:200
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:180
Expected OOC SOS:132



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17184.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA80-41L0%0.0
11-16Indiana (24.0)B10A102-76L0%0.0
11-18IPFW (71.0)SumH77-80L0%0.0
11-21Cal Poly (236.0)BWN73-64L0%0.0
11-22Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA76-91W100%0.0
11-28Samford (252.0)SCH74-73W100%0.0
12-2Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA61-48L0%0.0
12-5Troy (293.0)SBA71-80W100%0.0
12-12IPFW (71.0)SumA85-68L0%0.0
12-16North Florida (161.0)ASunA80-70L0%0.0
12-20Lipscomb (269.0)ASunA84-92W100%0.0
12-22Wofford (199.0)SCH84-77W100%0.0
12-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH70-74L0%0.0
1-2Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH70-79L0%0.0
1-7Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH73-54W100%0.0
1-9Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH66-72L0%0.0
1-14Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA66-52L0%0.0
1-16Belmont (98.0)OVCA76-58L0%0.0
1-21SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH90-86W100%0.0
1-23Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH86-87L0%0.0
1-27Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA75-65L0%0.0
1-30Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA80-86W100%0.0
2-4Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA86-77L0%0.0
2-6Murray St. (169.0)OVCA73-76W100%0.0
2-10Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA70-79W100%0.0
2-13Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH84-85L0%0.0
2-20Murray St. (169.0)OVCH60-76L0%0.0
2-25SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA75-80W100%0.0
2-27Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH83-75W100%0.0
3-2Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCN72-92W100%0.0
3-3Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA72-74W100%0.0
3-4Belmont (98.0)OVCA96-97W100%0.0
3-5Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCN73-83W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC26.4726.4752.0752.071.101.10
Tennessee MartinOVC5.245.2453.5753.570.370.37
Murray St.OVC3.823.8251.8551.850.140.14
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.813.8138.4638.46-0.88-0.88
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.793.7923.0823.08-2.04-2.04
BelmontOVC3.743.7464.2964.291.071.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.733.7312.0012.00-2.84-2.84
Tennessee St.OVC3.713.7165.3865.381.141.14
Tennessee TechOVC3.713.7161.5461.540.860.86
IPFWSum3.143.1468.9768.971.191.19
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.063.0675.0075.001.531.53
Morehead St.OVC2.372.3757.1457.140.340.34
Jacksonville St.OVC2.282.2821.4321.43-1.30-1.30
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.232.2344.8344.83-0.23-0.23
LipscombASun1.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
IndianaB101.641.6477.4277.420.900.90
SamfordSC1.621.6240.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Cal PolyBW1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
WoffordSC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
North FloridaASun1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
Northern ColoradoBSky1.541.5428.5728.57-0.66-0.66
VanderbiltSEC1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
TroySB1.541.5425.0025.00-0.77-0.77
StetsonASun0.280.2826.6726.67-0.13-0.13
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.2531.0331.03-0.10-0.10
ChattanoogaSC0.230.2384.3884.380.160.16
Western IllinoisSum0.210.2129.1729.17-0.09-0.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Saint LouisA100.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1518.5218.52-0.10-0.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1582.1482.140.100.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
DenverSum0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
South DakotaSum0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.130.1344.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
VMISC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
HoustonAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
DaytonA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Weber St.BSky0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Texas St.SB0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
MercerSC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
The CitadelSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
FIUCUSA0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01