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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:261.0
Current RPI:261
Expected SOS:226
Current SOS:226
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:7-9
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:116



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19261.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Dayton (30.0)A10A96-68L0%0.0
11-18Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzN69-77W100%0.0
11-19Miami OH (302.0)MACA76-70L0%0.0
11-20Delaware (235.0)CAAN76-75W100%0.0
11-30Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH99-103L0%0.0
12-3Arkansas (28.0)SECA99-62L0%0.0
12-10Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA98-58L0%0.0
12-15Wofford (190.0)SCA96-77L0%0.0
12-17Evansville (188.0)MVCH69-77L0%0.0
12-20Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH85-99L0%0.0
12-22Indiana (79.0)B10A97-62L0%0.0
12-28Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA97-92L0%0.0
12-31Belmont (61.0)OVCH77-82L0%0.0
1-5Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA76-67L0%0.0
1-7Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA71-68L0%0.0
1-12SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA81-83W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA84-92W100%0.0
1-19Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH82-89L0%0.0
1-21Murray St. (230.0)OVCH84-81W100%0.0
1-26Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH79-85L0%0.0
1-28Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH71-82L0%0.0
2-1Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA81-83W100%0.0
2-4Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH66-70L0%0.0
2-11Murray St. (230.0)OVCA102-58L0%0.0
2-16Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH85-80W100%0.0
2-18SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH92-84W100%0.0
2-23Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA76-72L0%0.0
2-25Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA79-88W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC26.2026.2034.5634.56-8.09-8.09
Murray St.OVC4.404.4044.8344.83-0.45-0.45
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.364.3641.3841.38-0.75-0.75
Tennessee MartinOVC4.334.3358.6258.620.750.75
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.264.2619.2319.23-2.62-2.62
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.264.2648.0048.00-0.17-0.17
Fort WayneSum3.653.6553.8553.850.280.28
Jacksonville St.OVC2.582.5854.8454.840.250.25
Morehead St.OVC2.572.5740.7440.74-0.48-0.48
Tennessee TechOVC2.552.5531.0331.03-0.97-0.97
BelmontOVC2.512.5176.9276.921.351.35
Tennessee St.OVC2.482.4851.8551.850.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.432.4335.7135.71-0.69-0.69
LipscombASun2.012.0155.1755.170.210.21
Northern KentuckyHorz2.002.0070.9770.970.840.84
IndianaB101.971.9753.1253.120.120.12
Miami OHMAC1.941.9427.5927.59-0.87-0.87
Western KentuckyCUSA1.881.8845.1645.16-0.18-0.18
EvansvilleMVC1.881.8843.3343.33-0.25-0.25
ArkansasSEC1.851.8572.7372.730.840.84
DelawareCAA1.841.8436.6736.67-0.49-0.49
DaytonA101.791.7975.8675.860.920.92
WoffordSC1.791.7941.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Western IllinoisSum0.350.3523.0823.08-0.19-0.19
Illinois St.MVC0.270.2781.2581.250.170.17
Southern IllinoisMVC0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.240.2437.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.210.2187.8887.880.160.16
MissouriSEC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.10-0.10
DetroitHorz0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
Missouri St.MVC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Saint LouisA100.190.1936.3636.36-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.190.1927.5927.59-0.08-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
UMKCWAC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
MississippiSEC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
DenverSum0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
MarshallCUSA0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.126.906.90-0.10-0.10
DuquesneA100.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Rhode IslandA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
VMISC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
HofstraCAA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
FordhamA100.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01