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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:319.0
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:243
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:318
Expected OOC SOS:232


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23319.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Samford (291.0)SCH75-64W100%0.0
11-13Western Kentucky (150.0)SBA74-54L0%0.0
11-17DePaul (204.0)BEA98-67L0%0.0
11-20Western Carolina (243.0)SCN71-72W100%0.0
11-21Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthN72-62L0%0.0
12-1Fairfield (173.0)MAACH55-74L0%0.0
12-8Memphis (12.0)CUSAA83-65L0%0.0
12-16Arkansas St. (163.0)SBA69-57L0%0.0
12-18Lipscomb (237.0)ASunH84-87L0%0.0
12-22Illinois St. (117.0)MVCA83-57L0%0.0
12-28Utah Valley (297.0)GWCN84-77L0%0.0
12-29High Point (249.0)BSthN76-74L0%0.0
1-3Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)OVCA86-84L0%0.0
1-5Tennessee Martin (312.0)OVCA76-74L0%0.0
1-9Morehead St. (172.0)OVCH84-81W100%0.0
1-12Murray St. (110.0)OVCH68-71L0%0.0
1-17SIU Edwardsville (304.0)OVCH53-66L0%0.0
1-19Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCH67-77L0%0.0
1-24Jacksonville St. (142.0)OVCA81-74L0%0.0
1-26Tennessee Tech (242.0)OVCA70-52L0%0.0
2-2Murray St. (110.0)OVCA75-68L0%0.0
2-7Tennessee St. (105.0)OVCH82-88L0%0.0
2-9Belmont (21.0)OVCH65-78L0%0.0
2-14Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCA64-71W100%0.0
2-16SIU Edwardsville (304.0)OVCA71-83W100%0.0
2-20Eastern Kentucky (70.0)OVCA91-53L0%0.0
2-23Liberty (288.0)BSthA79-73L0%0.0
2-28Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)OVCH81-108L0%0.0
3-2Tennessee Martin (312.0)OVCH91-58W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC26.1426.1420.7420.74-15.30-15.30
Murray St.OVC4.254.2562.9662.961.101.10
Tennessee MartinOVC4.254.2523.0823.08-2.29-2.29
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.204.2044.8344.83-0.43-0.43
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.174.1734.4834.48-1.30-1.30
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.094.0926.0926.09-1.96-1.96
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.502.5070.0070.001.001.00
BelmontOVC2.472.4779.3179.311.451.45
Morehead St.OVC2.422.4243.3343.33-0.32-0.32
Tennessee St.OVC2.382.3851.7251.720.080.08
Tennessee TechOVC2.382.3834.6234.62-0.73-0.73
Jacksonville St.OVC2.322.3256.0056.000.280.28
LipscombASun1.991.9935.7135.71-0.57-0.57
Western KentuckySB1.921.9254.5554.550.170.17
Arkansas St.SB1.921.9258.6258.620.330.33
LibertyBSth1.901.9035.4835.48-0.55-0.55
Gardner WebbBSth1.901.9058.6258.620.330.33
SamfordSC1.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
High PointBSth1.861.8651.8551.850.070.07
Western CarolinaSC1.861.8640.0040.00-0.37-0.37
MemphisCUSA1.841.8487.8887.881.401.40
DePaulBE1.801.8032.2632.26-0.64-0.64
FairfieldMAAC1.751.7554.5554.550.160.16
Illinois St.MVC1.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
Utah ValleyGWC1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
Central ArkansasSlnd0.270.2739.2939.29-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.260.2636.6736.67-0.07-0.07
TroySB0.250.2536.3636.36-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.GWC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
LongwoodBSth0.210.2119.3519.35-0.13-0.13
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.200.2042.3142.31-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.190.1971.4371.430.080.08
St. LouisA100.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
South AlabamaSB0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
MissouriSEC0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1510.0010.00-0.12-0.12
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
Houston BaptistGWC0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
College of CharlestonSC0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
The CitadelSC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Florida InternationalSB0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
LouisvilleBE0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
South Carolina UpstateASun0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
WinthropBSth0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
ElonSC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
New Orleansind0.110.1118.1818.18-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North TexasSB0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
MercerASun0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
KentuckySEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
KansasB120.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
WoffordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
FurmanSC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
DrexelCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0853.8553.850.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0648.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
XavierA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00