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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:300.3
Current RPI:326
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:302
Current Record:2-7
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:268



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12157.00.01%
15-13180.70.10%
14-14202.20.49%
13-15224.81.83%
12-16247.44.87%
11-17267.49.00%
10-18285.515.70%
9-19300.920.26%
8-20312.820.97%
7-21322.414.63%
6-22329.67.92%
5-23336.13.20%
4-24341.00.88%
3-25343.60.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Western Kentucky (154.0)CUSAA77-70L0%0.0
11-19Samford (323.7)SCA68-67L0%0.0
11-21Illinois (48.8)B10A107-66L0%0.0
11-24Indiana St. (249.9)MVCA61-57L0%0.0
11-27Brown (246.3)IvyN58-79W100%0.0
11-28Stephen F. Austin (75.0)SlndN83-62L0%0.0
12-6Southern Illinois (203.5)MVCA71-49L0%0.0
12-13Lipscomb (239.9)ASunH59-68L0%0.0
12-15Troy (279.6)SBH73-70W100%0.0
12-21Lipscomb (239.9)ASunA0-025%-7.8
12-31North Florida (158.9)ASunH0-036%-4.1
1-3Mississippi (98.8)SECA0-08%-16.4
1-8Jacksonville St. (264.1)OVCA0-039%-3.2
1-10Tennessee Tech (202.0)OVCA0-022%-9.2
1-15Tennessee St. (326.5)OVCH0-077%8.6
1-17Belmont (125.7)OVCH0-033%-5.2
1-22SIU Edwardsville (332.6)OVCA0-045%-1.5
1-24Eastern Illinois (266.0)OVCA0-030%-6.3
1-28Morehead St. (209.5)OVCH0-040%-2.9
1-31Southeast Missouri St. (245.0)OVCH0-049%-0.3
2-5Tennessee Martin (144.5)OVCH0-033%-5.3
2-7Murray St. (160.4)OVCH0-036%-4.1
2-12Eastern Illinois (266.0)OVCH0-058%2.4
2-14Tennessee Martin (144.5)OVCA0-012%-14.0
2-17Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCA0-016%-11.9
2-21Murray St. (160.4)OVCA0-014%-12.9
2-26SIU Edwardsville (332.6)OVCH0-073%7.3
2-28Southeast Missouri St. (245.0)OVCA0-022%-9.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC27.7826.3022.8631.13-15.08-9.93
Murray St.OVC0.314.3655.5660.780.030.94
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.284.3544.4446.18-0.03-0.33
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.3333.3337.62-0.00-1.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.284.310.0022.22-0.28-2.40
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.3062.5065.810.001.36
LipscombASun5.563.7614.2938.92-3.97-0.83
BelmontOVC1.002.6060.0062.810.200.67
Tennessee TechOVC0.352.5750.0048.550.00-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.902.560.0016.62-0.90-1.71
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.4455.5637.800.00-0.59
Morehead St.OVC0.002.4418.1845.67-0.00-0.21
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.4342.8654.54-0.000.22
Southern IllinoisMVC5.562.1155.5647.760.62-0.09
North FloridaASun0.001.9944.4456.67-0.000.26
Indiana St.MVC6.091.9725.0030.45-3.04-0.77
MississippiSEC0.771.9270.0051.300.310.05
Western KentuckyCUSA5.561.9150.0047.630.00-0.09
IllinoisB106.141.8570.0064.792.460.55
BrownIvy6.121.8544.4435.00-0.68-0.55
TroySB5.561.8140.0040.98-1.11-0.33
SamfordSC5.561.7927.2729.22-2.53-0.74
Stephen F. AustinSlnd5.561.7962.5076.871.390.96
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.3025.0033.17-0.00-0.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.2936.3633.67-0.06-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.230.2610.0018.58-0.19-0.16
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2537.5040.20-0.00-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2566.6764.310.000.07
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2277.7871.110.000.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.2075.0071.730.000.09
USC UpstateASun0.000.2060.0064.620.000.06
StetsonASun0.000.2010.0027.42-0.00-0.09
MissouriSEC0.000.1944.4431.58-0.00-0.07
DrakeMVC0.000.1820.0019.99-0.00-0.11
Northern IowaMVC0.310.1890.0078.050.250.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.460.160.0017.51-0.46-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1611.1144.04-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.160.0031.74-0.00-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1644.4451.58-0.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1644.4445.64-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1671.4363.890.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.1466.6748.410.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.590.130.0011.40-0.59-0.10
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1333.3345.50-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.1385.7161.020.000.03
Saint LouisA100.590.1360.0033.870.12-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.1327.2737.85-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.310.1380.0072.550.190.06
VanderbiltSEC0.350.1375.0060.400.170.03
PresbyterianBSth0.230.130.008.63-0.23-0.10
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1377.7869.190.000.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.1325.0038.92-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1277.7871.960.000.05
NebraskaB100.000.1266.6743.780.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1233.3332.09-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1271.4359.920.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.320.000.09
NorthwesternB100.280.1260.0040.620.06-0.02
PurdueB100.230.1272.7363.730.110.03
CampbellBSth0.000.1025.0044.59-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1020.0034.08-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.310.1075.0067.580.150.03
Texas St.SB0.310.1050.0050.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.310.1028.5736.95-0.13-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1033.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.460.100.0028.26-0.46-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1050.0052.710.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1080.0069.620.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.1018.1821.30-0.18-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1033.3345.28-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.310.1080.0070.960.190.04
CreightonBE0.000.0972.7351.560.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0966.6762.620.080.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0033.84-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.620.0955.5659.990.070.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0966.6754.660.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.230.0972.7367.750.110.03
UMKCWAC0.230.0922.2241.92-0.13-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0944.4447.53-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0046.150.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.280.0972.7367.180.130.03
GeorgiaSEC0.460.0962.5059.510.120.02
AmericanPat0.530.0960.0065.400.110.03
HamptonMEAC0.250.0940.0050.32-0.050.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0785.7170.350.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.900.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3334.28-0.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0750.0041.830.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.350.0766.6758.240.120.01
TexasB120.350.0790.0081.860.280.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0737.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0742.8638.26-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0762.5071.290.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0026.57-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0742.8652.71-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0725.0023.43-0.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.870.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0741.6744.33-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0744.4470.08-0.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0750.0032.620.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0754.5557.300.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0036.67-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0755.5654.950.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0018.94-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.460.0642.8627.08-0.07-0.03
IUPUISum0.310.0620.0026.33-0.19-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1828.02-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0064.610.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.860.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.70-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.340.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2934.12-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.310.0642.8636.79-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0037.73-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.000.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.68-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.600.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.330.000.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.590.060.0039.41-0.59-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0037.28-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.250.060.0014.79-0.25-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0094.790.000.06
Miami FLACC0.250.0690.0075.520.200.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.0620.0028.20-0.14-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0038.46-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.240.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.0636.3647.13-0.08-0.00
BaylorB120.560.0690.0073.870.450.03
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.02
MinnesotaB100.310.0677.7864.730.170.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.260.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.680.000.04
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.180.000.02
FurmanSC0.230.0625.0029.59-0.12-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.84-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2237.75-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.230.0633.3339.22-0.08-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0041.46-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7876.240.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.930.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0064.110.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.150.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.340.00-0.01
OregonP120.250.0666.6758.060.080.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.81-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.56-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.68-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0054.230.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.87-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.74-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.310.0340.0050.07-0.060.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8638.11-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.28-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.310.0355.5640.500.03-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.310.0333.3354.74-0.100.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.120.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3362.92-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.280.0328.5747.24-0.12-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.85-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.480.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.280.0357.1453.130.040.00
IonaMAAC0.310.0366.6772.340.100.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.620.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5757.26-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.57-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.280.0372.7353.260.130.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.190.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.360.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.44-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.360.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.19-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.310.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.280.0371.4361.370.120.01
PittsburghACC0.230.0366.6752.340.080.00
Wake ForestACC0.230.0350.0038.000.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4436.35-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0357.1470.590.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.630.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0050.78-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9153.850.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.390.000.01
VillanovaBE0.250.03100.0082.080.250.02
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02