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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:305.0
Current RPI:305
Expected SOS:319
Current SOS:319
Current Record:10-18
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:6-10
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-11
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:295
Expected OOC SOS:305



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18305.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Memphis (37.0)AmerA95-69L0%0.0
11-19Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH72-70W100%0.0
11-21Central Michigan (294.0)MACA90-75L0%0.0
11-22Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWN80-77L0%0.0
11-23Montana St. (275.0)BSkyN78-72W100%0.0
11-30Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA86-88W100%0.0
12-4East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH74-80L0%0.0
12-7Samford (313.0)SCA85-63L0%0.0
12-14Liberty (311.0)BSthH77-71W100%0.0
12-17Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA58-56L0%0.0
12-19Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH83-88L0%0.0
12-21East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA84-79L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH81-68W100%0.0
1-4Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH80-74W100%0.0
1-11Murray St. (142.0)OVCA89-67L0%0.0
1-16SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA71-67L0%0.0
1-18Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA67-64L0%0.0
1-23Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH59-71L0%0.0
1-25Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH83-69W100%0.0
1-31Murray St. (142.0)OVCH88-96L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA65-75W100%0.0
2-8Belmont (57.0)OVCA93-68L0%0.0
2-13Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH88-83W100%0.0
2-15SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH68-83L0%0.0
2-19Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA90-88L0%0.0
2-22Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH75-96L0%0.0
2-27Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA83-80L0%0.0
3-1Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA85-88W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC26.2126.2135.4835.48-7.61-7.61
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.374.3753.5753.570.310.31
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.344.3425.9325.93-2.09-2.09
Murray St.OVC4.334.3356.0056.000.520.52
Tennessee MartinOVC4.314.3122.2222.22-2.39-2.39
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.304.3030.7730.77-1.66-1.66
East Tennessee St.ASun3.753.7550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.582.5870.0070.001.031.03
Tennessee TechOVC2.572.5750.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC2.512.5170.9770.971.051.05
Morehead St.OVC2.502.5056.6756.670.330.33
Jacksonville St.OVC2.452.4525.0025.00-1.23-1.23
Tennessee St.OVC2.422.4214.2914.29-1.73-1.73
LipscombASun2.232.2346.4346.43-0.16-0.16
Central MichiganMAC1.971.9725.0025.00-0.98-0.98
Southern IllinoisMVC1.911.9141.9441.94-0.31-0.31
SamfordSC1.901.9031.0331.03-0.72-0.72
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.881.8843.7543.75-0.23-0.23
Montana St.BSky1.871.8742.8642.86-0.27-0.27
MemphisAmer1.851.8570.0070.000.740.74
VanderbiltSEC1.821.8246.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz1.811.8142.8642.86-0.26-0.26
LibertyBSth1.791.7928.5728.57-0.77-0.77
Northern KentuckyASun0.320.3230.0030.00-0.13-0.13
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.260.2662.5062.500.060.06
IPFWSum0.250.2567.7467.740.090.09
Western KentuckySB0.240.2461.2961.290.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.2313.7913.79-0.17-0.17
USC UpstateASun0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.200.2035.7135.71-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
UICHorz0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Chicago St.WAC0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.180.1880.6580.650.110.11
MercerASun0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
North FloridaASun0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
UMKCWAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Portland St.BSky0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
BradleyMVC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1193.1093.100.100.10
HawaiiBW0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
High PointBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.090.093.573.57-0.08-0.08
South DakotaSum0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
LSUSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01