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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Austin Peay

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:212.5
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:184
Current SOS:134
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:152



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-757.00.01%
20-873.50.02%
19-982.30.09%
18-1097.90.24%
17-11109.50.89%
16-12129.62.49%
15-13146.15.57%
14-14165.510.65%
13-15185.615.15%
12-16205.517.39%
11-17225.916.85%
10-18245.413.81%
9-19263.98.99%
8-20280.45.13%
7-21298.41.80%
6-22309.90.68%
5-23318.20.22%
4-24326.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Austin Peay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Dayton (36.4)A10A96-68L0%0.0
11-18Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzN69-77W100%0.0
11-19Miami OH (271.3)MACA76-70L0%0.0
11-20Delaware (225.1)CAAN76-75W100%0.0
11-30Fort Wayne (119.2)SumH99-103L0%0.0
12-3Arkansas (54.3)SECA0-07%-17.7
12-10Fort Wayne (119.2)SumA0-016%-11.7
12-15Wofford (257.2)SCA0-041%-2.8
12-17Evansville (205.3)MVCH0-047%-0.8
12-20Lipscomb (296.4)ASunH0-070%6.4
12-22Indiana (20.3)B10A0-02%-25.4
12-28Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAA0-046%-1.1
12-31Belmont (122.5)OVCH0-037%-3.8
1-5Tennessee Tech (304.6)OVCA0-052%0.6
1-7Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCA0-037%-3.9
1-12SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCA0-048%-0.5
1-14Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCA0-041%-2.8
1-19Morehead St. (211.9)OVCH0-055%1.4
1-21Murray St. (139.5)OVCH0-037%-4.0
1-26Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCH0-058%2.4
1-28Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCH0-068%5.5
2-1Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCA0-033%-5.1
2-4Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCH0-035%-4.5
2-11Murray St. (139.5)OVCA0-020%-10.1
2-16Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCH0-061%3.4
2-18SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCH0-068%5.7
2-23Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCA0-037%-3.8
2-25Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCA0-048%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Austin Peay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Austin Peay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Austin Peay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Austin PeayOVC29.3326.2743.4843.98-3.83-3.16
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.004.3350.0038.120.00-1.03
Murray St.OVC0.004.3042.8661.16-0.000.96
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.004.3057.1440.510.00-0.82
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.3050.0043.050.00-0.60
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.2875.0054.470.000.38
Fort WayneSum10.003.6660.0069.272.001.41
Morehead St.OVC0.832.5520.0041.79-0.50-0.42
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.5214.2927.96-0.00-1.11
BelmontOVC0.002.5140.0061.32-0.000.57
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.4642.8646.07-0.00-0.19
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.4657.1446.770.00-0.16
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.4583.3370.580.001.01
LipscombASun0.002.0114.2933.20-0.00-0.68
Northern KentuckyHorz11.832.0160.0054.012.370.16
IndianaB100.831.9883.3374.290.560.96
Miami OHMAC11.831.9440.0030.62-2.37-0.75
EvansvilleMVC0.001.8833.3339.95-0.00-0.38
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.8842.8633.53-0.00-0.62
ArkansasSEC0.831.8583.3361.830.560.44
DelawareCAA11.671.8550.0042.100.00-0.29
DaytonA1010.001.7960.0071.452.000.77
WoffordSC0.001.790.0032.63-0.00-0.62
Western IllinoisSum0.830.360.0022.69-0.83-0.20
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.2850.0046.670.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.2628.5747.72-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC1.000.2550.0029.280.00-0.11
Illinois St.MVC0.830.2550.0066.170.000.08
Green BayHorz0.000.2233.3348.71-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.220.0019.51-0.00-0.13
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2275.0064.960.000.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.2285.7173.010.000.10
MissouriSEC0.000.2250.0045.920.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2014.2937.52-0.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.000.1928.5728.26-0.00-0.08
Saint LouisA100.000.1933.3326.75-0.00-0.09
UMKCWAC0.000.1971.4356.050.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1650.0061.810.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1633.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1616.6730.27-0.00-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1633.3343.64-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.830.1671.4355.750.360.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1557.1448.860.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1520.0034.39-0.00-0.05
MississippiSEC0.000.1571.4346.010.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.1333.3341.11-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.130.0019.30-0.00-0.08
South DakotaSum0.000.1357.1447.220.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.1333.3332.23-0.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1350.0050.290.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1383.3380.700.000.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0013.30-0.00-0.09
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1385.7168.390.000.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1325.0024.28-0.00-0.06
IllinoisB100.830.1257.1442.660.12-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.1237.5034.65-0.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1283.3377.170.000.07
MarshallCUSA0.000.1283.3359.600.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.1280.0068.320.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1014.2929.15-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1028.5730.29-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.830.090.0024.77-0.83-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.830.0925.0040.81-0.42-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0933.3341.52-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0933.3333.15-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0971.4370.330.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0966.6769.810.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0920.0049.38-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.480.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0957.1455.810.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0933.3338.20-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.090.0021.15-0.00-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.0950.0051.820.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0914.2934.56-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0914.2931.71-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6756.360.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0925.0034.47-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0987.5075.320.000.05
PurdueB100.000.0971.4374.450.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.250.000.07
LouisvilleACC0.000.0985.7175.950.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.0971.4349.770.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0971.4366.220.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.07100.0075.010.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0783.3361.150.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
La SalleA101.000.0660.0051.780.200.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.830.0666.6756.020.280.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0683.3355.200.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
NebraskaB100.830.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.830.06100.0089.040.830.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0316.6730.02-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.830.0328.5734.18-0.36-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.830.0371.4358.670.360.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.830.0366.6775.370.280.02
PortlandWCC0.830.0360.0057.170.170.00
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00