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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:314.0
Current RPI:314
Expected SOS:330
Current SOS:330
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-11
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:184



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19314.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Creighton (10.0)BEA107-61L0%0.0
11-24Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA72-55L0%0.0
11-27Wright St. (173.0)HorzA73-55L0%0.0
12-2Troy (285.0)SBA73-70L0%0.0
12-9Houston (143.0)AmerA89-58L0%0.0
12-11Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA63-52L0%0.0
12-16Mercer (81.0)ASunA70-44L0%0.0
12-28Denver (139.0)SumN67-49L0%0.0
12-29Western Illinois (290.0)SumN64-62L0%0.0
1-4Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA83-66L0%0.0
1-6Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA70-67L0%0.0
1-11Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH64-51W100%0.0
1-13Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH64-56W100%0.0
1-18Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH65-53W100%0.0
1-20Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACA45-71W100%0.0
1-25Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH54-58L0%0.0
1-27Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH70-64W100%0.0
2-1Southern (171.0)SWACA62-54L0%0.0
2-8Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA71-61L0%0.0
2-10Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA95-80L0%0.0
2-15Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACA63-67W100%0.0
2-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH57-54W100%0.0
2-22Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA92-86L0%0.0
2-24Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA56-64W100%0.0
3-1Southern (171.0)SWACH54-67L0%0.0
3-6Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH69-77L0%0.0
3-8Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH64-62W100%0.0
3-13Alabama St. (254.0)SWACN64-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC26.5126.5134.2134.21-8.37-8.37
Alabama St.SWAC6.476.4752.0052.000.260.26
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.864.8629.0329.03-2.04-2.04
Texas SouthernSWAC4.834.8353.3353.330.320.32
Alabama A&MSWAC4.754.7546.1546.15-0.37-0.37
Grambling St.SWAC4.714.7112.0012.00-3.58-3.58
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.694.6940.7440.74-0.87-0.87
SouthernSWAC4.694.6951.8551.850.170.17
Jackson St.SWAC4.684.6834.4834.48-1.45-1.45
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.664.6622.2222.22-2.59-2.59
Western IllinoisSum1.971.9723.0823.08-1.06-1.06
Jacksonville St.OVC1.951.9525.0025.00-0.97-0.97
DenverSum1.941.9448.2848.28-0.07-0.07
TroySB1.911.9128.5728.57-0.82-0.82
CreightonBE1.851.8578.1278.121.041.04
MercerASun1.821.8273.3373.330.850.85
HoustonAmer1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC1.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
Wright St.Horz1.791.7954.8454.840.170.17
Arkansas Little RockSB0.250.2543.3343.33-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1878.5778.570.100.10
MarquetteBE0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
DePaulBE0.180.1836.3636.36-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
South DakotaSum0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
SMUAmer0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
BradleyMVC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
IPFWSum0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
IUPUISum0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
AuburnSEC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02