Alcorn St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	333.4
Current RPI:	337
Expected SOS:	339
Current SOS:	329
Current Record:	3-15
Expected Record:	6-20
Current Conf Record:	3-7
Expected Conf Record:	6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.03%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-12
Current OOC Record:	0-8
Expected OOC Record:	0-8
Expected OOC RPI:	311
Expected OOC SOS:	54

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-15	289.0	0.01%
10-16	297.4	0.39%
9-17	307.9	2.35%
8-18	319.0	9.32%
7-19	328.7	21.31%
6-20	335.3	29.59%
5-21	339.4	24.24%
4-22	341.7	10.78%
3-23	343.1	2.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-17	West Virginia (31.4)	BE	A	97-62	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	A	77-58	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	83-41	L	0%	0.0
11-26	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	N	66-65	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	A	56-44	L	0%	0.0
12-11	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	102-62	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Nebraska (117.6)	B10	A	60-46	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	A	80-49	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	A	87-52	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	A	55-47	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	63-60	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	71-72	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	A	85-66	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	A	75-68	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	H	61-60	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	64-65	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	A	65-54	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	A	46-57	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	A	0-0		61%	2.9
2-11	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	H	0-0		17%	-10.2
2-13	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	H	0-0		52%	0.6
2-18	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	A	0-0		23%	-8.0
2-20	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	A	0-0		30%	-5.8
2-25	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	0-0		44%	-1.6
3-1	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	0-0		27%	-6.8
3-3	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	0-0		45%	-1.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Alcorn St.	SWAC	26.33	26.49	19.12	24.28	-16.27	-13.63
Southern	SWAC	3.59	4.99	42.11	43.69	-0.57	-0.63
Alabama A&M	SWAC	3.57	4.98	12.50	22.06	-2.68	-2.78
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	3.48	4.94	13.64	20.99	-2.53	-2.87
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	3.46	4.93	47.62	55.79	-0.16	0.57
Texas Southern	SWAC	3.46	4.93	28.57	38.95	-1.48	-1.09
Jackson St.	SWAC	6.10	4.93	21.05	27.41	-3.53	-2.23
Alabama St.	SWAC	3.45	4.93	31.58	37.21	-1.27	-1.26
Grambling	SWAC	3.46	4.93	10.53	11.58	-2.73	-3.78
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	3.45	4.93	31.58	37.95	-1.27	-1.19
Tulane	CUSA	3.06	2.14	60.00	57.05	0.61	0.30
South Alabama	SB	2.99	2.07	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.04
San Diego	WCC	2.91	1.99	30.00	31.28	-1.16	-0.75
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.91	1.99	85.00	81.55	2.04	1.26
Texas A&M	B12	2.85	1.99	50.00	44.22	0.00	-0.23
West Virginia	BE	2.84	1.96	63.64	64.01	0.78	0.55
Kent St.	MAC	2.84	1.95	70.00	67.95	1.14	0.70
Nebraska	B10	2.78	1.92	50.00	44.78	0.00	-0.20
Baylor	B12	0.46	0.30	90.91	83.85	0.37	0.20
UAB	CUSA	0.28	0.25	40.91	39.82	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.27	0.23	34.78	38.42	-0.08	-0.05
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.20	0.23	43.48	43.31	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.26	0.23	38.10	37.86	-0.06	-0.06
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.27	0.21	47.06	50.75	-0.02	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.20	0.20	33.33	37.16	-0.07	-0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.27	0.20	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.26	0.20	59.09	59.72	0.05	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.20	0.20	73.91	68.43	0.10	0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.26	0.20	69.57	68.90	0.10	0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.20	0.20	69.57	65.15	0.08	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.17	72.73	66.81	0.06	0.06
North Texas	SB	0.27	0.17	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.14	0.17	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.20	0.17	60.87	59.05	0.04	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.26	0.17	69.57	71.51	0.10	0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.20	0.17	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.26	0.16	82.61	77.63	0.17	0.09
Cincinnati	BE	0.19	0.16	69.57	65.47	0.07	0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.19	0.16	61.90	55.14	0.05	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.19	0.16	68.18	67.91	0.07	0.06
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.16	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.20	0.14	75.00	76.00	0.10	0.07
St. Mary's	WCC	0.26	0.14	90.91	87.74	0.22	0.10
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.13	31.82	25.98	-0.05	-0.06
Denver	SB	0.20	0.13	70.83	72.23	0.08	0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.13	0.13	77.27	77.67	0.07	0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.26	0.13	86.96	85.46	0.20	0.09
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	76.19	72.91	0.07	0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.20	0.13	75.00	73.97	0.10	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.13	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.13	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.11	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.14	0.11	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.14	0.10	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.14	0.10	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.10	69.57	64.53	0.05	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.14	0.10	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.19	0.10	78.26	72.34	0.11	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.19	0.10	18.18	21.13	-0.12	-0.06
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.10	71.43	66.60	0.06	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.13	0.10	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.07	0.10	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.10	72.73	68.28	0.06	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.10	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.10	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.10	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.09	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.07	83.33	84.76	0.09	0.05
Troy	SB	0.13	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.06	-0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.07	0.07	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	21.74	21.70	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.13	0.07	28.57	26.30	-0.06	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	37.50	38.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.07	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	8.70	8.99	-0.05	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.13	0.07	35.00	35.26	-0.04	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	ind	0.07	0.07	30.00	27.84	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.07	0.07	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.07	0.07	30.00	31.54	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.07	0.07	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.07	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.13	0.07	75.00	74.61	0.07	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.07	28.57	34.20	-0.06	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	72.73	64.43	0.03	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	78.26	78.39	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	30.00	34.15	-0.03	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.07	69.57	61.31	0.00	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.07	0.07	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.07	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.07	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.07	95.83	92.01	0.12	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.13	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.05	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.04	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.04	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.07	0.04	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.04	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.07	0.04	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.04	70.00	73.28	0.03	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.04	85.71	78.05	0.05	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.04	69.57	68.29	0.03	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.07	0.04	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.04	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.04	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.03	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.04	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.05	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.07	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.07	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.06	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.00	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.00	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.04	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.07	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.04	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.02	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.07	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.04	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.00	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00