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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:320.5
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:125
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-11206.00.06%
14-12227.60.45%
13-13248.91.53%
12-14269.63.86%
11-15288.38.55%
10-16306.214.22%
9-17319.319.50%
8-18330.020.27%
7-19337.915.38%
6-20343.19.55%
5-21346.54.44%
4-22348.51.70%
3-23349.80.45%
2-24350.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCA69-44L0%0.0
11-14Evansville (205.3)MVCA82-59L0%0.0
11-27Colorado St. (89.8)MWCA80-58L0%0.0
11-30San Francisco (170.5)WCCA78-65L0%0.0
12-3California (68.2)P12A0-01%-27.2
12-5Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAA0-03%-21.8
12-18Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCA0-04%-20.9
12-20Grand Canyon (187.1)WACA0-09%-16.2
1-2Texas Southern (107.3)SWACH0-015%-12.4
1-4Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACH0-059%2.7
1-7Jackson St. (300.4)SWACA0-027%-7.4
1-9Grambling St. (333.4)SWACA0-045%-1.5
1-14Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACH0-065%4.7
1-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH0-068%5.5
1-21Alabama St. (324.9)SWACA0-038%-3.8
1-23Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA0-068%5.8
1-28Southern (238.0)SWACH0-032%-5.6
2-4Jackson St. (300.4)SWACH0-046%-1.2
2-6Grambling St. (333.4)SWACH0-065%4.7
2-11Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACA0-045%-1.4
2-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACA0-048%-0.7
2-18Alabama St. (324.9)SWACH0-058%2.4
2-20Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-084%11.9
2-25Southern (238.0)SWACA0-016%-11.8
3-2Texas Southern (107.3)SWACA0-06%-18.6
3-4Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACA0-039%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC29.1726.450.0036.25-29.17-7.27
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.940.0023.40-0.00-2.63
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.930.0022.97-0.00-2.67
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.9316.6731.30-0.00-1.85
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.9314.2933.25-0.00-1.65
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.9228.5733.36-0.00-1.64
SouthernSWAC0.004.9225.0055.47-0.000.54
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.9057.1465.480.001.52
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.900.0012.53-0.00-3.67
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.890.0040.93-0.00-0.89
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.1540.0066.92-0.000.73
Grand CanyonWAC0.002.0550.0055.010.000.21
Georgia TechACC0.001.9966.6737.780.00-0.49
EvansvilleMVC12.501.9920.0038.26-7.50-0.47
Loyola ChicagoMVC12.501.9960.0052.792.500.11
CaliforniaP120.001.9683.3362.400.000.49
Colorado St.MWC12.501.9280.0060.117.500.39
San FranciscoWCC12.501.9280.0048.927.50-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.260.0021.30-0.00-0.15
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.040.2450.0056.430.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2314.2928.66-0.00-0.10
UABCUSA0.000.2357.1461.940.000.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2375.0074.990.000.12
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2033.3323.33-0.00-0.11
BaylorB120.000.20100.0074.460.000.10
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2075.0064.960.000.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1950.0046.670.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1920.0042.63-0.00-0.03
TroySB1.040.1733.3332.23-0.35-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1771.4386.030.000.12
UtahP120.000.1675.0061.040.000.04
LouisvilleACC1.040.1685.7175.950.740.08
ArizonaP120.000.1685.7170.990.000.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1325.0024.28-0.00-0.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0089.040.000.10
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0082.550.000.09
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0066.170.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1333.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1340.0057.49-0.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1350.0029.280.00-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0091.060.000.11
Kent St.MAC0.000.1350.0051.820.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1360.0039.610.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.1371.4358.670.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.1328.5728.46-0.00-0.06
RiceCUSA0.000.1385.7169.010.000.05
TCUB120.000.13100.0059.480.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1328.5723.76-0.00-0.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1033.3345.60-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1083.3359.600.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1050.0043.610.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0024.32-0.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1080.0068.320.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0058.600.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.1014.2926.81-0.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.040.1050.0050.290.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.1050.0058.980.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1033.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1042.8661.90-0.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC1.040.1071.4368.100.450.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1042.8634.17-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.1060.0043.970.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1060.0048.590.00-0.00
ColoradoP121.040.1071.4359.850.450.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1085.7155.890.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC1.040.1071.4350.570.450.00
StanfordP121.040.1075.0059.100.520.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1066.6761.340.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0771.4368.660.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0737.5034.65-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0775.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0023.46-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0720.0032.60-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0785.7159.740.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0033.010.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0766.6775.370.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0785.7172.660.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0049.010.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0750.0035.230.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0760.0057.170.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0771.4356.280.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0728.5727.50-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0737.5036.24-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0024.19-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0716.6718.96-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0750.0052.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0716.6730.02-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0017.30-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0760.0067.410.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0757.1447.320.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0728.5730.29-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.040.070.0034.23-1.04-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.040.0785.7173.010.740.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0750.0045.920.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC1.040.070.0038.35-1.04-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0740.0030.80-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0714.2928.15-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0740.0037.44-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0783.3370.360.000.03
ToledoMAC1.040.0742.8650.36-0.150.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0771.4356.050.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0771.4349.590.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0750.0053.560.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0760.0058.950.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0725.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0716.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0787.5078.680.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0762.5043.960.00-0.01
Washington St.P121.040.0750.0036.820.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.040.0366.6751.460.350.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky1.040.030.0021.30-1.04-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.040.030.0033.44-1.04-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC1.040.0320.0041.93-0.62-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Oral RobertsSum1.040.030.0019.30-1.04-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA101.040.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.040.0383.3377.170.690.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01