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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:342.9
Current RPI:347
Expected SOS:345
Current SOS:334
Current Record:2-14
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:116



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-15290.00.08%
11-16307.60.67%
10-17321.83.36%
9-18332.610.30%
8-19340.119.63%
7-20344.925.03%
6-21347.322.22%
5-22348.812.97%
4-23349.84.70%
3-24350.60.98%
2-25351.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10LSU (103.4)SECA99-59L0%0.0
11-12Creighton (29.1)BEA109-72L0%0.0
11-13Northern Iowa (107.2)MVCA73-45L0%0.0
11-17Baylor (58.5)B12A78-61L0%0.0
11-19Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndA102-76L0%0.0
11-22Yale (203.6)IvyH73-87L0%0.0
11-29Tulane (107.4)AmerA81-65L0%0.0
12-10Iowa St. (106.2)B12A78-58L0%0.0
12-22Vanderbilt (143.7)SECA92-51L0%0.0
1-1Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACA76-64L0%0.0
1-3Texas Southern (208.4)SWACA85-70L0%0.0
1-6Jackson St. (292.8)SWACH55-60L0%0.0
1-8Grambling St. (286.7)SWACH61-72L0%0.0
1-13Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACA63-77W100%0.0
1-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACA71-59L0%0.0
1-20Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACH68-52W100%0.0
1-22Alabama St. (341.1)SWACH0-066%4.7
1-27Southern (302.3)SWACA0-024%-7.8
2-3Jackson St. (292.8)SWACA0-031%-5.4
2-5Grambling St. (286.7)SWACA0-028%-6.5
2-10Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH0-075%7.5
2-12Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACH0-056%1.8
2-17Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACA0-055%1.4
2-19Alabama St. (341.1)SWACA0-044%-1.8
2-24Southern (302.3)SWACH0-045%-1.4
3-1Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACH0-040%-2.9
3-3Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH0-023%-8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC26.3426.3815.6227.50-18.11-11.87
SouthernSWAC0.664.7327.7839.17-0.29-1.03
Texas SouthernSWAC3.554.7116.6741.21-2.36-0.83
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.374.6826.3234.12-1.60-1.49
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.374.680.0010.53-3.37-3.69
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.454.6816.6736.66-2.30-1.25
Alabama A&MSWAC3.454.6811.1116.35-2.69-3.15
Alabama St.SWAC0.414.6816.6722.81-0.27-2.54
Grambling St.SWAC3.464.6833.3341.12-1.15-0.83
Jackson St.SWAC3.454.6735.2940.40-1.02-0.90
BaylorB123.452.1058.8254.580.610.19
Iowa St.B123.301.9558.8245.440.58-0.18
TulaneAmer3.121.9261.1156.450.690.25
CreightonBE3.301.9173.6869.681.560.75
VanderbiltSEC3.211.9133.3333.40-1.07-0.64
LSUSEC3.211.9158.8251.550.570.06
Central ArkansasSlnd3.211.8842.1147.52-0.51-0.09
Northern IowaMVC3.211.8843.7550.75-0.400.03
YaleIvy3.201.8837.5045.64-0.80-0.16
TCUB120.350.2473.6865.590.160.08
IowaB100.170.2247.6244.03-0.01-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.320.2152.9455.040.020.02
OregonP120.240.2165.0063.830.070.06
KansasB120.260.1884.2179.740.180.11
Oklahoma St.B120.260.1868.4254.090.090.01
TulsaAmer0.330.1855.0053.290.030.01
Kansas St.B120.170.1573.6862.720.080.04
SMUAmer0.330.1570.0070.630.130.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1526.3231.52-0.08-0.06
UNLVMWC0.260.1573.6865.280.120.05
HoustonAmer0.250.1578.9572.990.150.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.1572.2258.940.040.03
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1568.4263.980.060.04
AlabamaSEC0.250.1568.4258.990.090.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.1589.4785.520.060.11
Georgia St.SB0.250.1566.6765.530.080.05
SamfordSC0.250.1527.7832.66-0.11-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.090.1370.0068.420.040.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1352.6350.250.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1377.7871.650.100.05
XavierBE0.260.1385.7180.080.180.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.170.1326.6729.04-0.08-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.1352.6355.290.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.1315.7920.92-0.17-0.07
ToledoMAC0.170.1266.6767.690.060.04
East CarolinaAmer0.080.1242.1132.48-0.01-0.04
OklahomaB120.000.1277.7867.900.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.1243.7549.10-0.03-0.00
TexasB120.170.1263.1657.620.050.02
Texas TechB120.170.1278.9571.810.100.05
West VirginiaB120.090.1284.2178.170.060.07
DePaulBE0.080.1242.1134.32-0.01-0.04
FloridaSEC0.080.1273.6871.550.040.05
GeorgetownBE0.160.1268.4254.090.060.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1270.0071.230.070.05
TennesseeSEC0.080.1272.2268.920.040.05
BYUWCC0.160.1280.9576.230.100.06
OhioMAC0.160.1247.0648.44-0.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.160.1261.1164.130.040.03
UtahP120.160.1261.1158.950.040.02
HawaiiBW0.160.1268.7563.960.060.03
St. BonaventureA100.180.1066.6768.700.060.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0994.7490.310.080.08
UCFAmer0.000.0968.4260.880.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.170.0952.6343.120.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0968.4260.530.030.02
MemphisAmer0.170.0965.0058.490.050.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.0950.0051.480.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0927.7834.50-0.04-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0980.0078.860.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0968.4264.200.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0966.6755.930.030.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6763.200.030.02
Seton HallBE0.240.0975.0067.890.120.03
GonzagaWCC0.160.0980.9583.260.100.06
KentuckySEC0.170.0973.6867.950.080.03
MichiganB100.170.0975.0070.270.080.04
Austin PeayOVC0.160.0944.4445.98-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.160.0929.4134.76-0.06-0.03
BradleyMVC0.090.0765.0057.870.030.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0755.0049.070.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0752.6347.360.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0747.3745.870.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0744.4446.10-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0750.0051.360.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.170.0680.0075.050.100.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.0660.0062.030.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0661.1158.750.020.01
BrownIvy0.180.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0662.5058.700.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0620.0032.260.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3333.360.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.210.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0689.4785.190.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0610.0019.620.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0637.5046.630.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0647.3744.270.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.640.000.02
MarylandB100.090.0670.0065.320.030.02
MercerSC0.090.0644.4454.89-0.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0625.0028.02-0.04-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0643.7554.090.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0664.7162.780.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0652.9460.270.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.0627.7831.67-0.08-0.02
WisconsinB100.180.0650.0046.260.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0652.9452.620.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0650.0052.440.000.00
ButlerBE0.080.0666.6763.070.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0622.2228.590.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0670.0068.220.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0652.9457.320.000.01
Little RockSB0.160.0622.2225.26-0.09-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.160.0623.5328.70-0.08-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0644.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.067.1414.820.00-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.160.0670.0060.460.060.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0657.8954.500.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0673.6872.360.040.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0672.2272.970.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0635.0026.140.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0647.3742.18-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0652.6351.730.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0635.2940.480.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.067.6923.28-0.14-0.03
UCLAP120.160.0665.0062.040.050.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0645.0045.02-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0660.0059.690.020.01
Wichita St.Amer0.090.0678.9577.360.050.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0646.6758.780.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0689.4777.030.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.065.8819.37-0.07-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0652.6345.860.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0661.1151.900.020.00
AkronMAC0.080.0647.0644.91-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0684.2173.210.060.03
DuquesneA100.080.0670.0058.100.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0631.5832.72-0.03-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0644.4444.86-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0663.6457.640.020.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0683.3384.230.050.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0657.1453.220.010.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0661.9065.160.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0680.9576.520.050.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0641.1838.46-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0668.4261.270.030.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0670.5969.610.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0645.0045.50-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0638.8935.35-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0661.1156.830.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0637.5031.76-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0660.0060.340.020.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0666.6763.420.030.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0657.8950.810.010.00
PacificWCC0.080.0645.0044.46-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0633.3332.96-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0657.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.080.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0656.2557.400.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.030.003.12-0.09-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0368.4257.770.030.01
AlbanyAE0.090.0370.0068.050.040.01
BryantNEC0.090.039.5217.08-0.07-0.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0363.1666.880.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0316.6724.91-0.06-0.02
LehighPat0.090.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0327.7840.88-0.04-0.01
VermontAE0.090.0373.6877.120.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0333.3337.22-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.0378.9576.970.050.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0345.0041.34-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0373.6869.610.040.01
FordhamA100.080.0331.5829.06-0.03-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.037.6920.09-0.07-0.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.850.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0340.0042.57-0.02-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.270.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0347.0641.45-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.080.0366.6759.780.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0341.1839.13-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0355.0050.370.010.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0363.1661.050.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0322.2227.33-0.05-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1117.96-0.06-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0342.8635.25-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0378.9576.130.050.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.650.040.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0372.2274.700.040.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0361.1160.790.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0350.0055.650.000.00
USCP120.080.0371.4368.300.040.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0394.4485.440.070.02