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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:348.0
Current RPI:348
Expected SOS:347
Current SOS:347
Current Record:5-25
Expected Record:5-25
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-16
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:121



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-25348.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14California (95.0)P12A91-57L0%0.0
11-16Texas (42.0)B12A85-53L0%0.0
11-21Hampton (251.0)MEACN69-82L0%0.0
11-22Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunN83-80L0%0.0
12-2Troy (313.0)SBA72-51L0%0.0
12-9Iowa (43.0)B10A67-44L0%0.0
12-13Ohio (231.0)MACA66-55L0%0.0
12-17Murray St. (63.0)OVCA94-56L0%0.0
12-21UTEP (78.0)CUSAA78-45L0%0.0
12-22North Dakota St. (92.0)SumN50-61L0%0.0
1-3Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH55-72L0%0.0
1-5Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH68-62W100%0.0
1-10Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA64-54L0%0.0
1-12Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA70-72W100%0.0
1-17Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH87-67W100%0.0
1-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH49-54L0%0.0
1-24Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA84-60L0%0.0
1-26Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA78-66L0%0.0
1-31Southern (223.0)SWACH56-65L0%0.0
2-7Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH61-64L0%0.0
2-9Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH91-77W100%0.0
2-14Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA76-60L0%0.0
2-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA74-70L0%0.0
2-21Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH67-71L0%0.0
2-23Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH69-73L0%0.0
2-28Southern (223.0)SWACA71-63L0%0.0
3-5Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA94-73L0%0.0
3-7Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACA83-80L0%0.0
3-10Grambling St. (351.0)SWACN66-52W100%0.0
3-11Texas Southern (120.0)SWACN95-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC26.5326.5316.4116.41-17.83-17.83
Texas SouthernSWAC6.056.0561.2961.291.371.37
Grambling St.SWAC5.915.910.000.00-5.91-5.91
SouthernSWAC4.524.5243.3343.33-0.60-0.60
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.454.4543.3343.33-0.59-0.59
Alabama St.SWAC4.414.4160.0060.000.880.88
Alabama A&MSWAC4.394.3923.0823.08-2.36-2.36
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.394.3916.6716.67-2.92-2.92
Jackson St.SWAC4.384.3830.0030.00-1.75-1.75
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.354.3533.3333.33-1.45-1.45
North Dakota St.Sum1.771.7768.9768.970.670.67
TexasB121.751.7559.3859.380.330.33
IowaB101.741.7464.5264.520.510.51
Murray St.OVC1.731.7382.7682.761.131.13
HamptonMEAC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
CaliforniaP121.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
OhioMAC1.721.7231.0331.03-0.65-0.65
TroySB1.671.6726.9226.92-0.77-0.77
UTEPCUSA1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
TCUB120.250.2554.5554.550.020.02
BaylorB120.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
Iowa St.B120.210.2175.7675.760.110.11
Texas TechB120.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
North TexasCUSA0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Michigan St.B100.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
HoustonAmer0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1375.8675.860.070.07
RiceCUSA0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
Kansas St.B120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
George WashingtonA100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
PurdueB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1171.4371.430.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.08-0.08
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
ArizonaP120.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Washington St.P120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
North DakotaBSky0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00