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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:279.9
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:328
Current SOS:320
Current Record:8-12
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12204.00.09%
14-13223.71.01%
13-14244.37.77%
12-15263.120.85%
11-16279.933.54%
10-17294.525.80%
9-18307.49.73%
8-19319.11.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Grand Canyon (101.1)WACA79-46L0%0.0
11-22UTEP (234.5)CUSAA88-66L0%0.0
11-24Portland (240.6)WCCA97-65L0%0.0
11-27Oakland (110.2)HorzN84-51L0%0.0
11-28Florida A&M (347.3)MEACN73-71L0%0.0
11-30Indiana (39.1)B10A112-70L0%0.0
12-5Mercer (132.1)SCA68-43L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee St. (151.2)OVCN81-76L0%0.0
12-21Tennessee Martin (241.4)OVCA70-47L0%0.0
1-2Prairie View A&M (343.7)SWACA70-73W100%0.0
1-4Texas Southern (193.4)SWACA74-58L0%0.0
1-9Jackson St. (216.7)SWACH71-80L0%0.0
1-11Grambling St. (346.1)SWACH69-53W100%0.0
1-16Mississippi Valley St. (324.0)SWACA87-93W100%0.0
1-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.7)SWACA65-73W100%0.0
1-23Alabama A&M (307.0)SWACH63-58W100%0.0
1-25Alabama St. (304.0)SWACH77-72W100%0.0
1-30Southern (178.9)SWACA75-64L0%0.0
2-6Jackson St. (216.7)SWACA64-72W100%0.0
2-8Grambling St. (346.1)SWACA63-66W100%0.0
2-13Mississippi Valley St. (324.0)SWACH0-067%4.7
2-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.7)SWACH0-069%5.4
2-20Alabama A&M (307.0)SWACA0-019%-9.4
2-22Alabama St. (304.0)SWACA0-026%-7.1
2-27Southern (178.9)SWACH0-024%-7.6
3-3Prairie View A&M (343.7)SWACH0-064%3.8
3-5Texas Southern (193.4)SWACH0-021%-8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC26.3626.4448.8944.28-0.59-3.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.274.7720.8322.64-1.91-2.61
SouthernSWAC3.374.7560.0063.570.671.29
Alabama St.SWAC3.234.7530.0033.06-1.29-1.61
Grambling St.SWAC5.634.7516.6719.56-3.75-2.89
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.214.7425.0026.35-1.61-2.24
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.144.739.5217.07-2.54-3.12
Texas SouthernSWAC3.144.7342.8651.62-0.450.15
Jackson St.SWAC5.584.7350.0054.500.000.43
Alabama A&MSWAC3.174.7138.8943.10-0.70-0.65
Grand CanyonWAC2.611.9881.8280.431.661.20
Tennessee St.OVC2.631.9566.6763.820.870.54
MercerSC2.561.9268.1867.930.930.69
UTEPCUSA2.561.8950.0050.280.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC2.501.8945.4548.22-0.23-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC2.551.8821.0521.97-1.48-1.06
IndianaB102.501.8578.2673.201.410.86
OaklandHorz2.501.8566.6766.930.830.63
PortlandWCC2.501.8537.5036.39-0.62-0.50
Louisiana TechCUSA0.410.3271.4368.750.180.12
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.2424.0024.17-0.12-0.12
NebraskaB100.210.2452.0050.780.010.00
TulaneAmer0.240.2336.0034.92-0.07-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.290.2214.2924.86-0.20-0.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.330.2265.2264.370.100.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.2025.0033.20-0.09-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.180.2075.0076.190.090.10
Virginia TechACC0.230.1952.0048.860.01-0.00
BaylorB120.230.1973.9168.480.110.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.1965.2268.590.080.07
SeattleWAC0.150.1847.6245.00-0.01-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.180.1745.4549.69-0.02-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1713.6415.80-0.13-0.12
Chicago St.WAC0.160.164.357.72-0.15-0.14
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1643.4843.76-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.220.1663.6461.480.060.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1429.1733.11-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1431.8236.14-0.06-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.1438.1037.70-0.04-0.03
MemphisAmer0.180.1358.3359.360.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.1321.7423.40-0.13-0.07
MarquetteBE0.240.1364.0057.920.070.02
HoustonAmer0.170.1370.8367.980.070.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1317.3920.66-0.11-0.08
FIUCUSA0.170.1340.9145.29-0.03-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1350.0052.380.000.01
Ohio St.B100.230.1360.0055.540.050.01
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1386.9686.650.120.10
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.220.1314.2915.45-0.16-0.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.220.1373.0872.640.100.06
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1340.0042.85-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1339.1341.03-0.04-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1331.5832.01-0.06-0.05
UTSACUSA0.110.1213.6413.63-0.08-0.09
WisconsinB100.160.1262.5056.960.040.02
BYUWCC0.100.1266.6769.490.030.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1230.4331.21-0.06-0.04
Michigan St.B100.100.1280.0081.580.060.07
HawaiiBW0.100.1284.2181.660.070.07
Saint LouisA100.120.1034.7832.42-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1045.4546.21-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.170.1041.6742.61-0.03-0.01
BelmontOVC0.110.1068.0066.660.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1052.0050.230.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1068.1871.310.070.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1058.3358.480.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.1050.0053.000.000.01
UMKCWAC0.110.1028.5732.73-0.05-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.160.1035.0034.80-0.05-0.03
UABCUSA0.110.1082.6179.390.070.06
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1042.8639.23-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0947.6249.35-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.0922.7327.18-0.06-0.04
Texas St.SB0.110.0936.8437.57-0.03-0.02
Washington St.P120.110.0936.3631.98-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.150.0954.5552.540.010.00
CreightonBE0.110.0964.0062.040.030.02
UNLVMWC0.110.0952.1755.090.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0945.8342.32-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.0960.8755.300.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.0933.3333.07-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.100.0964.0062.090.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0928.0030.70-0.04-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0760.8757.160.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.079.0912.25-0.10-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.120.0759.0961.310.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0741.6739.46-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.110.0723.8127.73-0.06-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.0743.4850.66-0.020.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0766.6767.710.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0760.0060.100.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0752.1750.420.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0733.3334.95-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0765.0063.440.020.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0743.4842.47-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.0771.4369.430.050.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.0650.0051.190.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.100.0631.5837.72-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.370.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0654.1754.080.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.110.0634.7833.05-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.110.0682.6179.250.070.04
The CitadelSC0.110.0631.8230.05-0.04-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0627.2731.06-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0615.0016.73-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.30-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0643.4846.22-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.060.0625.0026.40-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0658.3358.370.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0678.2676.880.030.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0636.3638.93-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.8760.750.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0639.1338.56-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0658.3360.690.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0625.0028.89-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.0656.5257.280.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0650.0051.280.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.7185.380.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0631.8229.13-0.02-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0654.5550.110.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0672.2275.620.030.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.560.020.02
TCUB120.060.0645.8339.35-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.060.0673.9174.060.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0621.7422.74-0.06-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.010.000.01
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.11-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.22-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.000.0682.6180.520.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.650.010.01
MinnesotaB100.100.0625.0027.23-0.05-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0633.3335.05-0.03-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.030.030.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.020.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0630.4332.35-0.04-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0643.4837.81-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0654.1754.290.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.540.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0660.8756.360.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0670.8368.000.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0633.3330.27-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0414.2920.65-0.04-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0450.0049.850.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0419.0525.90-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0465.2267.120.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0452.1754.140.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0354.1750.990.000.00
LipscombASun0.060.0325.0029.28-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0333.3335.16-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.070.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.070.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.18-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.44-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.060.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.70-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.11-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0360.8760.530.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0333.3330.60-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0334.7840.89-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.310.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.11-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0356.5262.820.000.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.66-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0342.1145.67-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.23-0.01-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.70-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.230.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0320.8324.09-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.800.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.42-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.220.010.00
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.590.020.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.690.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.03-0.03-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.720.020.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.820.020.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0380.0077.960.000.02
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.34-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.45-0.03-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.91-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0362.5060.110.010.01