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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:331.1
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:346
Current SOS:157
Current Record:0-8
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-13
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12245.00.01%
14-13250.80.04%
13-14262.80.36%
12-15282.91.67%
11-16301.45.02%
10-17314.110.33%
9-18324.316.21%
8-19332.320.71%
7-20339.020.55%
6-21343.914.24%
5-22346.97.34%
4-23348.92.75%
3-24349.70.64%
2-25350.90.10%
1-26350.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14California (57.4)P12A91-57L0%0.0
11-16Texas (5.2)B12A85-53L0%0.0
11-21Hampton (247.7)MEACN69-82L0%0.0
11-22Kennesaw St. (293.5)ASunN83-80L0%0.0
12-2Troy (273.2)SBA72-51L0%0.0
12-9Iowa (49.3)B10A67-44L0%0.0
12-13Ohio (203.4)MACA66-55L0%0.0
12-17Murray St. (161.3)OVCA94-56L0%0.0
12-21UTEP (61.4)CUSAA0-01%-25.8
1-3Texas Southern (226.1)SWACH0-036%-4.3
1-5Prairie View A&M (287.4)SWACH0-044%-1.8
1-10Jackson St. (298.8)SWACA0-020%-9.7
1-12Grambling St. (349.8)SWACA0-073%7.4
1-17Mississippi Valley St. (347.5)SWACH0-082%10.6
1-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.8)SWACH0-055%1.5
1-24Alabama St. (229.6)SWACA0-09%-15.5
1-26Alabama A&M (331.3)SWACA0-033%-5.3
1-31Southern (308.4)SWACH0-052%0.7
2-7Jackson St. (298.8)SWACH0-047%-1.0
2-9Grambling St. (349.8)SWACH0-091%16.1
2-14Mississippi Valley St. (347.5)SWACA0-056%1.8
2-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.8)SWACA0-027%-7.3
2-21Alabama St. (229.6)SWACH0-028%-6.8
2-23Alabama A&M (331.3)SWACH0-061%3.4
2-28Southern (308.4)SWACA0-025%-8.1
3-5Texas Southern (226.1)SWACA0-013%-13.0
3-7Prairie View A&M (287.4)SWACA0-019%-10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC27.8926.450.0030.55-27.89-10.29
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.524.7820.0036.89-0.31-1.25
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.760.0030.30-0.00-1.88
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.7510.0039.36-0.00-1.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.7510.0017.13-0.00-3.12
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.7511.1142.86-0.00-0.68
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.740.0037.46-0.00-1.19
SouthernSWAC0.004.740.0032.37-0.00-1.67
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.730.008.08-0.00-3.96
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.7233.3361.81-0.001.12
Murray St.OVC6.251.9250.0060.220.000.39
CaliforniaP126.851.9188.8965.355.330.59
IowaB106.881.9170.0061.342.750.43
OhioMAC6.251.9140.0035.12-1.25-0.57
TexasB126.851.9188.8981.155.331.19
HamptonMEAC6.531.8833.3348.38-2.18-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun6.561.8830.0031.39-2.62-0.70
TroySB6.251.8520.0038.30-3.75-0.43
UTEPCUSA0.001.8566.6771.340.000.79
TCUB120.000.25100.0066.280.000.08
BaylorB120.000.2590.0073.960.000.12
Iowa St.B120.280.2188.8964.130.220.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1970.0066.610.000.06
North TexasCUSA0.000.1942.8636.42-0.00-0.05
Texas TechB120.000.1888.8955.730.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.1887.5054.920.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1855.5638.460.00-0.04
WashingtonP120.000.16100.0072.030.000.07
Texas St.SB0.310.1650.0050.360.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.1675.0049.720.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.520.1650.0032.540.00-0.06
RiceCUSA0.000.1616.6725.04-0.00-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.1650.0033.280.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.350.1571.4348.780.15-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1544.4470.22-0.000.06
IndianaB100.000.1580.0057.470.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1572.7373.120.000.07
StanfordP120.000.1575.0058.750.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.350.1475.0070.220.170.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1475.0067.080.000.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1444.4447.39-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.830.1342.8632.44-0.12-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1357.1461.280.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1333.3339.12-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.350.1344.4444.99-0.04-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.310.130.0016.94-0.31-0.09
AkronMAC0.000.1360.0056.780.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1385.7170.330.000.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1342.8652.07-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1266.6754.090.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1210.0018.36-0.00-0.08
MinnesotaB100.000.1277.7864.890.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1236.3664.92-0.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1250.0056.370.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum1.190.1255.5656.480.130.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1288.8963.230.000.03
SyracuseACC1.190.1266.6757.600.400.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1260.0037.340.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1260.0040.460.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1128.5736.94-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6766.690.000.04
UtahP120.000.1077.7879.670.000.06
PurdueB100.000.1072.7363.690.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.280.1071.4361.390.120.02
Austin PeayOVC0.520.1022.2230.96-0.29-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.310.1055.5654.760.030.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.520.1075.0071.470.260.04
MississippiSEC0.520.1066.6752.510.170.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1040.0050.48-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.1060.0064.580.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.520.0975.0064.990.260.03
IllinoisB100.310.0972.7365.950.140.03
LipscombASun0.310.0925.0042.50-0.16-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0944.4456.92-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.310.0977.7873.090.170.04
DrakeMVC0.350.0920.0020.14-0.21-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.350.0980.0069.840.210.04
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0080.830.000.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.23-0.00-0.05
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3338.24-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0940.0029.07-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0911.1129.64-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6776.500.000.05
WisconsinB100.000.0990.9188.430.000.07
ArkansasSEC0.000.0777.7871.830.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0725.0032.64-0.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0737.5041.33-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.79-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0777.7869.890.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0777.7851.090.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.640.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0790.9171.750.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0755.5638.100.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0742.8638.50-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0733.3345.72-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0775.0069.340.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0771.4363.540.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0760.0061.810.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0762.5071.700.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3345.26-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0730.0028.35-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0037.67-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.520.0760.0062.430.100.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0024.33-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0762.5066.710.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.350.0655.5648.830.04-0.00
XavierBE0.350.0680.0071.020.210.03
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.85-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.88-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.280.0650.0054.660.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0044.01-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5660.050.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.0620.0037.19-0.19-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.13-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.090.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6777.710.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1128.93-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.04-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.310.0627.2737.77-0.14-0.02
UMBCAE0.280.0610.0021.05-0.23-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.270.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4435.62-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.870.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0091.070.000.05
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5056.250.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.200.000.03
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.540.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2934.33-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.600.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.320.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6743.830.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.060.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.620.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.330.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.340.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0650.0048.630.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.11-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.160.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.71-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.410.000.01
USCP120.000.0660.0037.230.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.760.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.520.030.0017.71-0.52-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.520.0362.5059.460.130.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0019.58-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.520.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.120.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.67-0.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6764.900.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0318.1846.19-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.350.0366.6748.960.12-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0360.0049.650.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.310.0360.0065.060.060.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.02-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.280.0380.0072.470.170.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0355.5665.660.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.280.0344.4451.18-0.030.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0077.970.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.030.0014.70-0.31-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5048.14-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.28-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.350.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.37-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.280.0337.5041.84-0.07-0.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.81-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
SamfordSC0.280.0333.3331.37-0.09-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.98-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.28-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1143.93-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0345.4544.47-0.03-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.310.0342.8638.02-0.04-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.580.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.310.0357.1456.210.040.00
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0330.0029.48-0.12-0.01
KentuckySEC0.310.03100.0094.670.310.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0049.99-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.280.0320.0026.68-0.17-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.700.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.690.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.310.0325.0051.40-0.160.00
NevadaMWC0.310.0312.5024.75-0.23-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.280.0370.0071.470.110.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0078.120.000.02
OregonP120.000.0366.6759.200.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.060.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.280.0375.0058.890.140.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.930.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.310.0350.0062.870.000.01