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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:317.1
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:345
Current SOS:50
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9179.50.02%
17-10195.20.05%
16-11225.40.32%
15-12244.51.30%
14-13262.63.24%
13-14280.07.13%
12-15296.712.32%
11-16311.517.29%
10-17322.718.41%
9-18331.817.56%
8-19339.211.68%
7-20344.56.51%
6-21347.52.96%
5-22349.80.97%
4-23350.40.19%
3-24350.50.02%
2-25350.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10LSU (132.9)SECA99-59L0%0.0
11-12Creighton (36.3)BEA109-72L0%0.0
11-13Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCA73-45L0%0.0
11-17Baylor (41.9)B12A78-61L0%0.0
11-19Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndA0-031%-6.0
11-22Yale (127.9)IvyH0-014%-13.2
11-29Tulane (133.8)AmerA0-06%-19.0
12-10Iowa St. (151.6)B12A0-03%-22.8
12-22Vanderbilt (89.2)SECA0-02%-25.1
1-1Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACA0-040%-3.0
1-3Texas Southern (177.8)SWACA0-014%-12.7
1-6Jackson St. (279.5)SWACH0-051%0.3
1-8Grambling St. (328.3)SWACH0-066%4.9
1-13Mississippi Valley St. (338.1)SWACA0-062%3.6
1-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACA0-053%1.0
1-20Alabama A&M (341.8)SWACH0-076%8.4
1-22Alabama St. (334.9)SWACH0-073%7.4
1-27Southern (281.6)SWACA0-031%-6.0
2-3Jackson St. (279.5)SWACA0-032%-5.7
2-5Grambling St. (328.3)SWACA0-046%-1.1
2-10Mississippi Valley St. (338.1)SWACH0-079%9.7
2-12Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACH0-072%7.0
2-17Alabama A&M (341.8)SWACA0-058%2.4
2-19Alabama St. (334.9)SWACA0-055%1.4
2-24Southern (281.6)SWACH0-050%0.0
3-1Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACH0-060%3.0
3-3Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH0-029%-6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC34.3826.410.0041.01-34.38-4.75
SouthernSWAC0.004.760.0043.530.00-0.62
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.730.0048.430.00-0.15
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.710.0023.020.00-2.54
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.700.0018.240.00-2.99
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.700.0021.850.00-2.64
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.700.0031.970.00-1.69
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.700.0032.710.00-1.62
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.690.0025.410.00-2.31
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.690.0043.410.00-0.62
BaylorB1212.502.07100.0059.7212.500.40
Iowa St.B120.001.9550.0036.640.00-0.52
VanderbiltSEC0.001.9266.6748.330.00-0.06
TulaneAmer0.001.92100.0052.760.000.11
LSUSEC12.501.91100.0044.0812.50-0.23
Central ArkansasSlnd2.081.880.0034.45-2.08-0.59
CreightonBE12.501.88100.0066.3012.500.61
Northern IowaMVC12.501.8850.0061.750.000.44
YaleIvy2.081.8825.0053.81-1.040.14
TCUB120.000.25100.0061.150.000.06
IowaB100.000.22100.0058.250.000.04
OregonP120.000.22100.0076.200.000.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.210.0044.130.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.19100.0082.910.000.12
Oklahoma St.B120.000.19100.0059.540.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1950.0048.690.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.16100.0051.080.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.16100.0061.320.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.16100.0071.010.000.07
Kansas St.B120.000.16100.0062.930.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.16100.0064.720.000.05
HoustonAmer0.000.1666.6753.670.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.16100.0076.260.000.08
CincinnatiAmer0.000.15100.0082.350.000.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1525.0050.070.000.00
SamfordSC3.120.1533.3347.97-1.04-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.14100.0059.250.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1466.6763.230.000.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.13100.0063.590.000.04
XavierBE0.000.13100.0078.990.000.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.13100.0057.270.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.130.0028.770.00-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1333.3346.880.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.13100.0060.070.000.03
TexasB120.000.13100.0063.830.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.13100.0062.630.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1366.6771.200.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.13100.0080.230.000.08
TennesseeSEC0.000.13100.0048.350.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.130.0047.180.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.13100.0064.120.000.04
DePaulBE0.000.1333.3331.290.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.13100.0058.070.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1233.3334.490.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.1233.3348.480.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.12100.0075.130.000.06
UABCUSA0.000.12100.0078.750.000.07
UtahP120.000.12100.0067.160.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.12100.0053.460.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.1266.6767.320.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1050.0054.450.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0071.180.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.10100.0053.240.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1066.6757.890.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0975.0071.830.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0950.0050.670.000.00
MichiganB100.000.09100.0061.710.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.09100.0069.350.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0061.780.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.090.0057.520.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0029.880.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0065.140.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0950.0043.710.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0086.180.000.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.0966.6746.830.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0775.0048.770.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0750.0035.740.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0051.900.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0733.3352.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0733.3343.810.00-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.07100.0059.760.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.07100.0071.560.000.03
North CarolinaACC2.080.07100.0078.162.080.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0733.3345.540.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.070.0048.610.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0038.990.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0068.280.000.02
MarylandB100.000.07100.0071.740.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0775.0076.250.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0766.6761.500.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0046.410.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.070.0055.380.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.06100.0053.790.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.06100.0039.270.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3334.680.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.700.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0633.3354.200.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0633.3349.350.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.060.0051.010.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0067.950.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0666.6766.970.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.080.060.0046.00-2.08-0.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.06100.0082.290.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0036.830.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0052.380.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3336.610.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0650.0050.570.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0022.920.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0666.6767.630.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6728.760.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3350.220.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0047.670.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0066.010.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0059.870.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0050.190.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0057.360.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.06100.0044.740.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0650.0060.060.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6742.260.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.060.0033.520.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.060.0042.340.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3346.410.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
Chicago St.WAC2.080.040.007.67-2.08-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.030.0030.230.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0366.6751.580.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
NorthwesternB102.080.0375.0055.041.040.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.03100.0038.710.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6740.170.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0029.630.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.810.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6756.400.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.030.0064.600.000.01
USCP120.000.03100.0073.190.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.140.000.01