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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:253.0
Current RPI:253
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:333
Current Record:13-15
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:332
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15253.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA79-46L0%0.0
11-22UTEP (215.0)CUSAA88-66L0%0.0
11-24Portland (249.0)WCCA97-65L0%0.0
11-27Oakland (116.0)HorzN84-51L0%0.0
11-28Florida A&M (349.0)MEACN73-71L0%0.0
11-30Indiana (24.0)B10A112-70L0%0.0
12-5Mercer (194.0)SCA68-43L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCN81-76L0%0.0
12-21Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA70-47L0%0.0
1-2Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACA70-73W100%0.0
1-4Texas Southern (190.0)SWACA74-58L0%0.0
1-9Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH71-80L0%0.0
1-11Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH69-53W100%0.0
1-16Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACA87-93W100%0.0
1-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACA65-73W100%0.0
1-23Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH63-58W100%0.0
1-25Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH77-72W100%0.0
1-30Southern (186.0)SWACA75-64L0%0.0
2-6Jackson St. (221.0)SWACA64-72W100%0.0
2-8Grambling St. (350.0)SWACA63-66W100%0.0
2-13Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH72-71W100%0.0
2-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH79-60W100%0.0
2-20Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACA58-62W100%0.0
2-22Alabama St. (265.0)SWACA73-59L0%0.0
2-27Southern (186.0)SWACH70-56W100%0.0
3-3Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH81-64W100%0.0
3-5Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH66-76L0%0.0
3-9Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACN61-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC26.4426.4450.8150.810.430.43
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.456.4521.8821.88-3.63-3.63
SouthernSWAC4.754.7562.0762.071.151.15
Jackson St.SWAC4.744.7453.3353.330.320.32
Texas SouthernSWAC4.674.6753.3353.330.310.31
Alabama A&MSWAC4.654.6538.4638.46-1.07-1.07
Grambling St.SWAC4.654.6515.3815.38-3.22-3.22
Alabama St.SWAC4.634.6340.7440.74-0.86-0.86
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.624.6225.8125.81-2.24-2.24
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.614.6124.1424.14-2.38-2.38
Grand CanyonWAC1.921.9278.5778.571.101.10
Tennessee St.OVC1.881.8862.9662.960.490.49
MercerSC1.851.8553.3353.330.120.12
UTEPCUSA1.821.8254.8454.840.180.18
Tennessee MartinOVC1.821.8253.3353.330.120.12
Florida A&MMEAC1.811.8119.2319.23-1.12-1.12
IndianaB101.791.7977.4277.420.980.98
OaklandHorz1.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
PortlandWCC1.791.7933.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Louisiana TechCUSA0.290.2970.0070.000.120.12
NebraskaB100.240.2447.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.220.2260.7160.710.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.220.2220.6920.69-0.13-0.13
TulaneAmer0.210.2135.2935.29-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
SeattleWAC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1511.1111.11-0.12-0.12
Chicago St.WAC0.150.153.453.45-0.14-0.14
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
FIUCUSA0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
BYUWCC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
HawaiiBW0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1218.5218.52-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
The CitadelSC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00