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Through games of Jan 30, 2015.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:342.5
Current RPI:344
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:339
Current Record:3-15
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-13
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17305.60.07%
10-18317.40.50%
9-19326.83.19%
8-20334.311.40%
7-21340.523.63%
6-22344.530.00%
5-23346.822.32%
4-24348.18.05%
3-25349.10.83%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14California (137.8)P12A91-57L0%0.0
11-16Texas (25.7)B12A85-53L0%0.0
11-21Hampton (298.2)MEACN69-82L0%0.0
11-22Kennesaw St. (327.2)ASunN83-80L0%0.0
12-2Troy (318.8)SBA72-51L0%0.0
12-9Iowa (51.9)B10A67-44L0%0.0
12-13Ohio (211.4)MACA66-55L0%0.0
12-17Murray St. (69.3)OVCA94-56L0%0.0
12-21UTEP (85.8)CUSAA78-45L0%0.0
12-22North Dakota St. (157.9)SumN50-61L0%0.0
1-3Texas Southern (150.4)SWACH55-72L0%0.0
1-5Prairie View A&M (308.4)SWACH68-62W100%0.0
1-10Jackson St. (311.3)SWACA64-54L0%0.0
1-12Grambling St. (349.3)SWACA70-72W100%0.0
1-17Mississippi Valley St. (346.3)SWACH87-67W100%0.0
1-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (303.2)SWACH49-54L0%0.0
1-24Alabama St. (215.0)SWACA84-60L0%0.0
1-26Alabama A&M (323.9)SWACA78-66L0%0.0
1-31Southern (249.9)SWACH0-024%-7.6
2-7Jackson St. (311.3)SWACH0-037%-3.8
2-9Grambling St. (349.3)SWACH0-084%11.1
2-14Mississippi Valley St. (346.3)SWACA0-053%0.8
2-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (303.2)SWACA0-020%-9.4
2-21Alabama St. (215.0)SWACH0-018%-9.9
2-23Alabama A&M (323.9)SWACH0-047%-0.7
2-28Southern (249.9)SWACA0-09%-14.5
3-5Texas Southern (150.4)SWACA0-05%-18.1
3-7Prairie View A&M (308.4)SWACA0-018%-10.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC26.3426.4218.0622.63-16.83-14.46
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.254.6025.0033.12-1.63-1.55
Alabama A&MSWAC3.244.5820.0027.84-1.95-2.03
Jackson St.SWAC3.204.5721.0534.80-1.85-1.39
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.174.5710.5314.64-2.50-3.23
Texas SouthernSWAC3.154.5742.1154.33-0.500.40
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.144.5622.2232.61-1.75-1.59
SouthernSWAC0.634.5631.5841.84-0.23-0.74
Grambling St.SWAC3.184.550.006.47-3.18-3.96
Alabama St.SWAC3.164.5461.5465.360.731.39
North Dakota St.Sum3.051.9061.1160.380.680.40
IowaB102.991.8863.1662.200.790.46
TexasB122.991.8868.4266.241.100.61
Murray St.OVC2.861.8578.9580.911.661.14
HamptonMEAC2.921.8536.8436.50-0.77-0.50
Kennesaw St.ASun2.921.8520.0022.87-1.75-1.00
CaliforniaP122.911.8555.0046.150.29-0.14
OhioMAC2.841.8435.2933.18-0.84-0.62
TroySB2.781.7925.0027.05-1.39-0.82
UTEPCUSA2.781.7963.1667.640.730.63
TCUB120.300.2470.0059.730.120.05
BaylorB120.140.2473.6869.390.070.09
Iowa St.B120.210.2178.9569.330.120.08
Southern MissCUSA0.290.1823.5320.64-0.16-0.11
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1875.0073.840.070.09
HawaiiBW0.140.1865.0059.030.040.03
TulaneAmer0.140.1860.0052.490.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.210.1835.2933.06-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.210.1752.3840.080.01-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.260.1733.3331.28-0.09-0.06
WashingtonP120.230.1670.0063.140.090.04
Kent St.MAC0.290.1670.0063.500.110.04
Oregon St.P120.160.1665.0059.750.050.03
Texas St.SB0.220.1543.7546.22-0.03-0.01
AkronMAC0.140.1568.4263.700.050.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.290.1541.1838.29-0.05-0.03
RiceCUSA0.210.1525.0027.87-0.11-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.1572.2277.840.090.08
HoustonAmer0.210.1540.0037.05-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.140.1471.4366.610.060.05
Michigan St.B100.210.1466.6764.920.070.04
StanfordP120.200.1475.0071.470.100.06
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1435.2930.49-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.250.1375.0069.800.120.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.1336.8437.34-0.02-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.230.1342.1138.99-0.04-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1376.4771.300.090.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.1355.0053.780.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.160.1238.8937.17-0.04-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.270.1210.0013.32-0.22-0.09
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1244.4451.67-0.020.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.1255.0054.130.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.1220.0020.72-0.04-0.07
MinnesotaB100.070.1257.1454.290.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1257.1462.480.010.03
SyracuseACC0.270.1266.6758.800.090.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1273.3372.370.030.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.210.1250.0061.990.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1268.4260.870.050.03
Kansas St.B120.070.1257.1446.790.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.1250.0043.420.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.170.1023.5330.63-0.09-0.04
UtahP120.100.1078.9580.140.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.170.1035.2935.77-0.05-0.03
George WashingtonA100.170.1076.1969.570.090.04
PurdueB100.160.1061.9058.640.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.1061.1156.540.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.1026.3226.56-0.04-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.0957.8957.960.020.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0965.0063.020.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.0963.1667.490.040.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0942.1147.36-0.01-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.140.0963.1663.400.040.02
IllinoisB100.140.0961.9060.280.030.02
LipscombASun0.140.0938.8941.90-0.03-0.01
North FloridaASun0.140.0955.0060.490.010.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0978.9573.790.040.04
DrakeMVC0.140.0920.0021.28-0.08-0.05
NebraskaB100.150.0960.0049.450.03-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.0915.0023.63-0.10-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.150.0961.1156.080.030.01
ValparaisoHorz0.140.0980.0079.220.080.05
ArizonaP120.140.0990.9188.550.110.07
UABCUSA0.140.0945.0049.91-0.01-0.00
Washington St.P120.200.0945.0036.07-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.0970.5973.360.060.04
WisconsinB100.140.0990.0087.310.110.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.0826.3236.42-0.06-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.0780.0072.650.060.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.0727.7828.15-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0790.9185.820.080.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0736.8438.01-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0742.1140.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.090.0780.0077.320.050.04
DenverSum0.070.0742.8646.32-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0773.3372.110.040.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0765.0068.130.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0750.0046.860.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.070.0738.8941.66-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.070.0736.3638.71-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.0752.9453.200.010.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0750.0044.440.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0736.8439.63-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0747.3749.63-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0726.3229.17-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.070.0742.8644.91-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0766.6768.850.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0745.0037.39-0.01-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0638.8938.68-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0661.1160.460.000.01
BelmontOVC0.150.0665.0063.630.040.02
MontanaBSky0.140.0652.9455.900.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.0666.6766.030.050.02
XavierBE0.140.0666.6765.800.050.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0670.0068.410.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0644.4449.91-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0656.2557.010.010.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0641.1844.43-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0631.5830.78-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0620.0027.25-0.04-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0636.8440.44-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0616.6722.55-0.04-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0641.1840.94-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.140.0614.2917.01-0.10-0.04
BrownIvy0.070.0638.8936.84-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0061.650.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0670.5975.650.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0682.3584.890.050.04
UTSACUSA0.070.0647.0645.69-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.140.0641.1841.54-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0650.0051.090.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0647.3738.40-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0655.0055.340.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0695.2494.650.060.05
HofstraCAA0.070.0663.6468.340.020.02
KansasB120.070.0685.0077.480.050.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0637.5037.53-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0657.8958.390.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0642.1134.91-0.01-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0659.0956.200.010.01
Ohio St.B100.140.0677.2777.580.080.03
OklahomaB120.070.0665.0066.320.020.02
SMUAmer0.070.0680.0077.800.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0630.0031.92-0.03-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0663.1654.160.020.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0652.9447.000.00-0.00
UCLAP120.070.0657.1455.760.010.01
USCP120.070.0645.0039.01-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0685.0075.810.050.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0635.2932.56-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0673.6870.420.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0623.5328.20-0.04-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.030.003.40-0.08-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0373.6866.450.040.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0315.7919.24-0.05-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0314.2917.20-0.06-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0350.0058.090.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0360.0060.200.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0338.1045.41-0.02-0.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0350.0049.060.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0338.1036.83-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0340.0042.36-0.01-0.00
AmericanPat0.070.0352.3854.030.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0321.0530.43-0.04-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0371.4370.720.030.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0360.0060.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0310.5319.78-0.05-0.02
DePaulBE0.080.0350.0042.550.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.070.0345.0042.61-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.030.004.66-0.07-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0354.5556.920.000.00
MercerSC0.070.0350.0052.630.000.00
NJITind0.000.0352.3854.400.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0336.3636.11-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0316.6725.21-0.05-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0328.5732.24-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0360.0058.610.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0357.8956.380.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0333.3333.64-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0345.0052.68-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0385.0081.560.050.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0340.0040.94-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0358.3365.180.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0321.0525.57-0.04-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0079.860.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0322.2240.62-0.04-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0347.0649.31-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0355.0052.300.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0357.8959.140.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0342.1137.96-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.03100.0098.410.070.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0345.0052.61-0.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0320.0024.54-0.04-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0381.8276.480.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0360.0052.340.000.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0323.5325.35-0.04-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.9576.580.040.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0390.4885.060.060.02
OregonP120.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6754.170.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.070.0360.0057.750.010.00
RutgersB100.000.0345.4536.52-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.6356.830.000.00