live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Alcorn St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:228.0
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:334
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-3
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC RPI:294
Expected OOC SOS:29



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14228.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alcorn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA69-44L0%0.0
11-14Evansville (188.0)MVCA82-59L0%0.0
11-27Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA80-58L0%0.0
11-30San Francisco (94.0)WCCA78-65L0%0.0
12-3California (53.0)P12A83-59L0%0.0
12-5Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA98-65L0%0.0
12-18Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA74-50L0%0.0
12-20Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA63-53L0%0.0
1-2Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH65-67L0%0.0
1-4Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH66-55W100%0.0
1-9Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA67-62L0%0.0
1-11Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA50-63W100%0.0
1-14Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH77-84L0%0.0
1-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH82-64W100%0.0
1-21Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA71-78W100%0.0
1-23Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA70-81W100%0.0
1-28Southern (320.0)SWACH74-64W100%0.0
2-4Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH69-58W100%0.0
2-6Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH75-65W100%0.0
2-11Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACA77-88W100%0.0
2-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA58-70W100%0.0
2-18Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH75-67W100%0.0
2-20Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH74-59W100%0.0
2-25Southern (320.0)SWACA67-68W100%0.0
3-2Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA94-88L0%0.0
3-4Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA66-60L0%0.0
3-7Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH63-60W100%0.0
3-10Southern (320.0)SWACN81-59W100%0.0
3-11Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA53-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alcorn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alcorn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alcorn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alcorn St.SWAC26.6526.6558.6858.684.624.62
Texas SouthernSWAC6.326.3264.5264.521.831.83
SouthernSWAC6.276.2748.1548.15-0.23-0.23
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.226.2220.6920.69-3.65-3.65
Grambling St.SWAC4.674.6742.8642.86-0.67-0.67
Alabama St.SWAC4.624.6225.0025.00-2.31-2.31
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.604.6034.4834.48-1.43-1.43
Jackson St.SWAC4.604.6044.4444.44-0.51-0.51
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.544.5421.4321.43-2.60-2.60
Alabama A&MSWAC4.514.517.417.41-3.84-3.84
Louisiana TechCUSA1.921.9266.6766.670.640.64
Grand CanyonWAC1.861.8667.8667.860.670.67
Georgia TechACC1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC1.781.7843.3343.33-0.24-0.24
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
CaliforniaP121.751.7562.5062.500.440.44
Colorado St.MWC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
San FranciscoWCC1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
UABCUSA0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.250.2520.6920.69-0.15-0.15
San Diego St.MWC0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.220.2277.4277.420.120.12
Southern IllinoisMVC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.200.2037.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1781.2581.250.110.11
UtahP120.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
ArizonaP120.160.1688.2488.240.120.12
TroySB0.140.1458.8258.820.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Kent St.MAC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.140.1496.9796.970.130.13
Oregon St.P120.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
RiceCUSA0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
NebraskaB100.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
UTSACUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01