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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:218.5
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:99
Current SOS:88
Current Record:7-15
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15140.00.04%
13-16155.30.91%
12-17172.84.80%
11-18190.114.77%
10-19207.827.38%
9-20227.129.64%
8-21247.718.13%
7-22265.94.32%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14DePaul (168.3)BEA69-63L0%0.0
11-17San Diego (295.4)WCCH74-62W100%0.0
11-21UNC Wilmington (58.8)CAAA80-76L0%0.0
11-26Stephen F. Austin (95.4)SlndN79-71L0%0.0
11-27Liberty (264.2)BSthN68-58W100%0.0
11-29Mercer (139.1)SCN68-65L0%0.0
12-3James Madison (78.2)CAAA63-57L0%0.0
12-7Northeastern (140.6)CAAH87-86W100%0.0
12-22IPFW (82.2)SumH86-89L0%0.0
12-30Vanderbilt (53.1)SECA86-61L0%0.0
1-2Jacksonville (252.0)ASunH76-72W100%0.0
1-5Kent St. (106.7)MACH84-87L0%0.0
1-8Akron (32.3)MACA62-53L0%0.0
1-12Ball St. (168.1)MACH64-74L0%0.0
1-16Northern Illinois (140.3)MACH83-69W100%0.0
1-19Ohio (83.3)MACA82-64L0%0.0
1-23Buffalo (104.3)MACH91-71W100%0.0
1-26Bowling Green (201.8)MACH78-79L0%0.0
1-30Eastern Michigan (148.2)MACH94-86W100%0.0
2-2Toledo (141.8)MACA89-62L0%0.0
2-6Ball St. (168.1)MACA75-71L0%0.0
2-9Miami OH (219.2)MACH44-45L0%0.0
2-13Bowling Green (201.8)MACA0-043%-1.9
2-16Kent St. (106.7)MACA0-031%-5.3
2-20Central Michigan (143.0)MACH0-050%-0.0
2-23Eastern Michigan (148.2)MACA0-027%-6.7
2-27Northern Illinois (140.3)MACA0-030%-5.7
3-1Toledo (141.8)MACH0-040%-2.7
3-4Central Michigan (143.0)MACA0-027%-6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC26.2026.2925.0029.71-13.10-10.67
Central MichiganMAC0.574.2547.6248.45-0.03-0.13
Eastern MichiganMAC2.724.2542.1143.74-0.43-0.53
Ball St.MAC5.004.2357.1454.110.710.35
ToledoMAC2.834.2359.0960.790.510.91
Northern IllinoisMAC2.724.2263.1659.490.720.80
Kent St.MAC2.784.1663.6459.020.760.75
Bowling GreenMAC2.724.1647.6243.44-0.13-0.55
Miami OHMAC2.882.6131.8230.58-1.05-1.01
BuffaloMAC2.842.5856.5256.230.370.32
OhioMAC2.882.5863.6462.380.790.64
AkronMAC2.732.5681.8280.481.741.56
NortheasternCAA2.471.8750.0050.270.000.01
James MadisonCAA2.371.8570.8370.340.990.75
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.411.8476.1972.921.260.84
IPFWSum2.371.7869.5767.530.930.63
JacksonvilleASun2.321.7550.0050.440.000.02
DePaulBE2.271.7230.4331.75-0.89-0.63
LibertyBSth2.271.7236.3637.90-0.62-0.42
MercerSC2.271.7265.2265.940.690.55
San DiegoWCC2.271.7231.8229.24-0.83-0.72
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.271.7270.5974.740.940.85
VanderbiltSEC2.271.7256.5258.640.300.30
William & MaryCAA0.240.2768.1867.120.090.09
DetroitHorz0.250.2445.4543.88-0.02-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.2321.7422.78-0.14-0.13
DrexelCAA0.240.2113.0416.41-0.18-0.14
DelawareCAA0.290.2125.0024.91-0.14-0.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.1860.8758.910.040.03
ElonCAA0.290.1850.0050.080.000.00
HofstraCAA0.190.1866.6766.780.060.06
TowsonCAA0.190.1862.5057.720.050.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1730.4332.24-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.1550.0052.880.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.160.1554.1753.810.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.210.1526.3232.42-0.10-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.200.154.357.71-0.19-0.13
LipscombASun0.240.1528.0030.50-0.11-0.06
Penn St.B100.150.1550.0046.760.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.250.1552.1754.140.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1545.8343.78-0.01-0.02
IUPUISum0.200.1538.4638.50-0.05-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1429.1733.08-0.06-0.05
North FloridaASun0.110.1362.5064.110.030.04
Appalachian St.SB0.210.1325.0028.14-0.10-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1258.3358.580.020.02
South DakotaSum0.150.1244.0043.56-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.1268.0070.260.000.05
RadfordBSth0.150.1252.1754.090.010.01
NJITASun0.100.1256.0055.640.010.01
OaklandHorz0.110.1265.3865.500.030.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1226.0928.41-0.07-0.05
VermontAE0.150.1252.0054.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.150.1221.7424.59-0.08-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.200.1258.3360.910.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1231.8236.13-0.05-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.190.1150.0051.150.000.00
LamarSlnd0.110.1030.0029.17-0.05-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0922.2231.13-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0945.4554.18-0.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.0931.8230.08-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.160.0936.0034.84-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0925.0026.38-0.05-0.04
Ohio St.B100.100.0960.0055.570.020.01
StetsonASun0.150.0922.7327.37-0.08-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0924.0024.16-0.03-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0914.2920.63-0.08-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.0939.1342.98-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.099.5210.67-0.08-0.07
Michigan St.B100.100.0980.0081.550.060.06
MissouriSEC0.100.0933.3330.27-0.03-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0960.8760.240.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0927.2727.81-0.07-0.04
DenverSum0.100.0952.0049.300.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.100.0956.0054.430.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0950.0049.320.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.150.0966.6763.330.050.02
GeorgetownBE0.150.0956.0052.860.020.01
MaristMAAC0.100.0921.7424.25-0.06-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0943.4845.20-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0923.8122.85-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.100.0920.8323.28-0.06-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.140.0941.6742.39-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.100.0966.6766.320.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0940.0042.85-0.03-0.01
WoffordSC0.140.0945.8348.12-0.01-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.150.0982.6183.030.100.06
ArkansasSEC0.140.0950.0052.940.000.01
Green BayHorz0.100.0956.5257.690.010.01
VillanovaBE0.100.0987.5086.850.070.06
XavierBE0.140.0987.5081.840.110.05
AuburnSEC0.090.0939.1335.44-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0942.3144.49-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0925.0023.43-0.02-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0750.0049.890.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0755.5652.480.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0717.6526.60-0.04-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0745.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0776.1972.410.030.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0656.5255.330.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0679.1776.000.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0621.7422.42-0.03-0.04
CampbellBSth0.100.0631.8232.07-0.04-0.02
NavyPat0.100.0664.0064.470.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0679.1777.510.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0683.3382.090.000.04
High PointBSth0.100.0657.1459.870.010.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0636.3638.95-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0641.6741.18-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0660.8762.470.000.02
PacificWCC0.100.0623.8125.99-0.05-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0638.4638.04-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0623.8125.48-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0681.8281.780.060.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0633.3332.04-0.03-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0662.5063.450.010.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6769.760.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0645.4546.07-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.100.0666.6763.790.030.02
BaylorB120.110.0673.9168.450.050.02
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0641.6739.50-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0683.3383.710.060.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.570.020.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0645.0048.15-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0660.8759.830.020.01
SamfordSC0.090.0640.0041.68-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0673.9174.640.020.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.0415.26-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.090.0630.4329.49-0.04-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0623.0825.89-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.050.0619.0519.67-0.03-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0631.8234.54-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0631.5832.03-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.100.0670.8371.030.040.02
George MasonA100.090.0633.3333.62-0.03-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0636.8442.87-0.03-0.01
BradleyMVC0.100.0612.0011.95-0.08-0.04
ButlerBE0.090.0670.8368.990.040.02
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.070.030.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.0639.1341.06-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0626.0927.89-0.05-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.220.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0645.4549.06-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0664.0057.890.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0668.1867.730.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0643.4850.67-0.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0631.8235.12-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.600.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0672.0069.130.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.090.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0686.9682.930.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0673.0872.610.020.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0652.1751.840.000.00
DaytonA100.100.0687.5083.730.070.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0686.9680.430.070.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.0672.7370.390.040.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0682.6183.030.060.04
KentuckySEC0.050.0675.0072.620.020.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.120.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0675.0075.350.020.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.0034.87-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0356.0053.630.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0323.8129.52-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0318.1821.06-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0356.0055.450.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0314.2924.87-0.05-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0383.3379.820.040.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.72-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0333.3330.63-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.910.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0373.6875.880.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.090.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0340.0043.49-0.01-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0338.1035.34-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0375.0071.140.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.29-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.10-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.180.010.00
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.530.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0386.3684.240.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.68-0.03-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0356.0056.500.010.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0375.0071.980.020.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.600.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0048.970.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.820.010.00
StanfordP120.050.0347.6244.07-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0350.0050.500.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.190.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.330.020.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.730.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.64-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0324.0026.42-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.810.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0359.0955.160.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8367.960.020.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.210.030.02
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.070.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.940.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0343.4843.76-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0343.4844.81-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.160.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.900.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.270.030.02
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01