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Through games of Dec 23, 2014.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:149.6
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:151
Current SOS:316
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-636.50.02%
22-746.50.02%
21-855.00.29%
20-967.91.03%
19-1082.92.98%
18-1198.07.05%
17-12114.212.30%
16-13131.317.49%
15-14149.319.30%
14-15167.817.09%
13-16186.812.13%
12-17206.26.62%
11-18225.62.65%
10-19242.40.85%
9-20263.20.16%
8-21287.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Oakland (241.4)HorzA71-82W100%0.0
11-22Drake (288.8)MVCH91-75W100%0.0
11-24San Diego (99.2)WCCA77-70L0%0.0
11-27Long Beach St. (92.0)BWN55-73L0%0.0
11-28San Jose St. (331.0)MWCN60-79W100%0.0
11-30San Diego (99.2)WCCN68-66W100%0.0
12-6Northeastern (132.8)CAAA81-69L0%0.0
12-14Pacific (204.7)WCCA72-80W100%0.0
12-20Northwestern (146.0)B10A67-61L0%0.0
12-22Alabama A&M (334.1)SWACH71-62W100%0.0
12-30New Hampshire (204.2)AEH0-070%5.9
1-6Akron (149.5)MACA0-032%-5.5
1-10Buffalo (39.4)MACH0-041%-2.7
1-14Ball St. (221.0)MACH0-073%6.9
1-17Toledo (98.1)MACA0-023%-8.5
1-21Miami OH (278.6)MACA0-061%3.1
1-24Akron (149.5)MACH0-060%3.0
1-27Buffalo (39.4)MACA0-017%-11.1
1-31Eastern Michigan (107.8)MACA0-026%-7.3
2-4Kent St. (120.1)MACH0-058%2.3
2-7Central Michigan (65.5)MACA0-015%-12.0
2-10Bowling Green (106.6)MACA0-026%-7.6
2-14Northern Illinois (262.1)MACH0-082%10.5
2-18Ohio (198.3)MACH0-074%7.3
2-21Toledo (98.1)MACH0-050%-0.0
2-24Ball St. (221.0)MACA0-045%-1.5
2-28Eastern Michigan (107.8)MACH0-054%1.1
3-3Northern Illinois (262.1)MACA0-057%2.0
3-6Central Michigan (65.5)MACH0-038%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC27.8326.3668.1853.4710.121.83
ToledoMAC0.214.3063.6459.920.060.85
Central MichiganMAC0.214.2887.5076.590.162.28
Eastern MichiganMAC0.214.2677.7865.960.121.36
Ball St.MAC0.004.2425.0037.33-0.00-1.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.2437.5033.57-0.00-1.39
BuffaloMAC0.004.1877.7870.740.001.73
AkronMAC0.004.1760.0056.980.000.58
San DiegoWCC10.003.5155.5658.021.110.56
Bowling GreenMAC0.542.6275.0065.720.270.83
Miami OHMAC0.212.6027.2727.23-0.09-1.18
OhioMAC0.002.5744.4439.68-0.00-0.53
Kent St.MAC0.002.5670.0059.680.000.50
OaklandHorz5.001.8427.2733.65-2.27-0.60
PacificWCC5.001.8462.5040.441.25-0.35
NorthwesternB105.001.8263.6441.961.36-0.29
Alabama A&MSWAC5.001.750.0029.68-5.00-0.71
DrakeMVC5.001.7520.0019.51-3.00-1.07
Long Beach St.BW5.001.7227.2746.45-2.27-0.12
New HampshireAE0.001.7244.4456.76-0.000.23
NortheasternCAA5.001.7260.0059.521.000.33
San Jose St.MWC5.001.720.006.09-5.00-1.51
PortlandWCC0.480.2470.0051.880.190.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.480.2440.0032.47-0.10-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.2223.0837.47-0.00-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2245.4545.01-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.250.2166.6756.000.080.03
BYUWCC0.210.2172.7369.150.090.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.2166.6759.370.080.04
MaineAE0.000.1910.0022.55-0.00-0.11
GonzagaWCC0.000.1890.9191.100.000.15
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1820.0021.55-0.00-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1845.4552.58-0.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.660.1875.0074.940.330.09
DetroitHorz0.000.1736.3643.70-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.310.1681.8271.250.200.07
LongwoodBSth0.000.1520.0025.40-0.00-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.159.0916.85-0.17-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.230.1581.8274.420.140.07
Michigan St.B100.210.1569.2367.160.080.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1536.3648.00-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1327.2729.61-0.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.007.88-0.00-0.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1241.6749.01-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1240.0038.02-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1245.4548.76-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.490.1220.0030.73-0.29-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.770.1236.3640.80-0.21-0.02
DePaulBE0.230.1250.0029.510.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1216.6737.97-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.120.0011.35-0.00-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0014.94-0.00-0.09
UMBCAE0.000.1218.1825.19-0.00-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.450.1272.7368.620.210.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1230.0030.58-0.00-0.05
MichiganB100.000.1254.5538.970.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.1244.4439.11-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1280.0071.910.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.1254.5553.530.000.01
IowaB100.000.1269.2359.520.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1258.3353.030.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.450.1233.3361.67-0.150.03
XavierBE0.870.1272.7366.740.400.04
Chicago St.WAC0.210.120.008.94-0.21-0.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.1216.6721.10-0.14-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1136.3638.29-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.1191.6789.790.000.09
DrexelCAA0.000.1122.2237.28-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.210.1150.0051.650.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0024.67-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.230.0915.3842.07-0.16-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.280.09100.0079.010.280.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.0945.4543.92-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0927.2728.96-0.13-0.04
WashingtonP120.740.09100.0074.510.740.04
IUPUISum0.230.0925.0030.10-0.11-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.700.0938.4643.07-0.16-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0937.5051.12-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.280.0950.0050.740.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.280.0933.3329.58-0.09-0.04
Green BayHorz0.230.0970.0075.410.090.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.0941.6736.54-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0970.0058.460.000.01
UC DavisBW0.250.0988.8971.360.190.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0980.0067.970.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0950.0041.350.00-0.02
UCLAP120.660.0966.6753.940.220.01
Northern IowaMVC0.210.0990.9182.960.170.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0950.0051.700.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0954.5556.380.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.230.0944.4447.62-0.03-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0992.3157.320.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0840.0046.33-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0722.2230.10-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0628.5760.85-0.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0645.4555.45-0.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0654.5552.160.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0640.0050.26-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.069.0941.56-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.68-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0645.4559.03-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0618.1852.25-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0049.610.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0034.25-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0640.0053.34-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.230.0663.6468.610.060.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0655.5651.920.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0618.1829.20-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0633.3349.38-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0692.3176.480.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0670.0056.050.000.01
UtahP120.000.0681.8279.670.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.0654.5548.640.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0681.8273.630.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.310.0663.6439.480.09-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.230.0630.0042.42-0.09-0.01
BrownIvy0.210.0645.4538.49-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.520.0672.7351.480.240.00
RutgersB100.000.0658.3337.700.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.450.060.0011.47-0.45-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0663.6463.450.000.02
Iowa St.B120.440.0690.0067.360.350.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0627.2730.35-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.450.0616.6746.98-0.30-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0690.0085.230.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0691.6771.970.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6723.40-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0660.0065.790.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0654.5552.030.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0663.6456.890.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.270.000.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.0620.0030.75-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0061.940.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0654.5549.970.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0611.1128.21-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6764.710.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0663.6460.790.000.01
USCP120.000.0663.6440.170.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5656.610.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0683.3382.500.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0636.3637.95-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0641.6744.34-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.009.97-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.560.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0663.6472.510.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.550.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3347.59-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0672.7359.010.000.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0077.240.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0056.880.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0654.5544.450.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0360.0039.120.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0318.1840.11-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.280.0310.0028.44-0.22-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.310.0345.4537.57-0.03-0.01
MarquetteBE0.310.0363.6448.300.09-0.00
MercerSC0.280.0340.0042.61-0.06-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0053.940.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3339.03-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.210.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0370.0067.030.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0372.7370.420.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6758.160.000.01
SeattleWAC0.250.0340.0047.19-0.05-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0345.4540.45-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.250.0345.4529.46-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0052.370.000.00
ArizonaP120.210.0392.3178.580.180.02
ClemsonACC0.210.0363.6445.710.06-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.210.0366.6771.710.070.01
Morehead St.OVC0.210.0316.6736.70-0.14-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.230.0322.2234.98-0.13-0.01
PittsburghACC0.210.0372.7354.540.090.00
Western CarolinaSC0.210.0327.2743.30-0.09-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0344.4441.15-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0344.4449.70-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0381.8264.060.000.01
Kansas St.B120.210.0363.6440.460.06-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0330.7728.70-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0322.2234.43-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0082.870.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.20-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0322.2230.24-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.210.0390.0067.180.170.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.0366.6778.880.070.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0363.6461.190.000.01
TexasB120.210.0383.3376.390.140.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0330.0041.48-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0318.1834.73-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.050.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6763.190.000.01
ButlerBE0.210.0375.0070.670.100.01
FairfieldMAAC0.230.0336.3637.65-0.06-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.230.0358.3340.800.04-0.01
HarvardIvy0.230.0375.0064.820.110.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.210.0316.6737.51-0.14-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3363.750.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.230.0336.3642.13-0.06-0.00
MassachusettsA100.230.0350.0051.320.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0381.8267.230.000.01
NavyPat0.230.0327.2726.15-0.10-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0363.6442.160.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.210.0345.4557.68-0.020.00
PurdueB100.000.0361.5453.750.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0363.6455.150.000.00