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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:176.7
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:112
Current Record:12-15
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:9-7
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15157.933.02%
13-16181.052.11%
12-17203.814.87%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oakland (102.4)HorzA77-60L0%0.0
11-17Villanova (1.8)BEN76-65L0%0.0
11-18UTEP (243.3)CUSAN85-75L0%0.0
11-20Boise St. (60.3)MWCN91-70L0%0.0
11-26Central Arkansas (295.6)SlndH80-63W100%0.0
11-30UNC Wilmington (34.0)CAAH92-97L0%0.0
12-7Cleveland St. (247.1)HorzA85-62L0%0.0
12-10James Madison (258.1)CAAH74-67W100%0.0
12-18Washington (205.8)P12A92-86L0%0.0
12-21UCLA (15.9)P12A82-68L0%0.0
12-29Alabama A&M (350.3)SWACH80-50W100%0.0
1-3Ohio (111.2)MACA89-58L0%0.0
1-6Akron (53.3)MACA66-59L0%0.0
1-10Toledo (153.4)MACH90-74W100%0.0
1-14Kent St. (178.2)MACH92-88W100%0.0
1-17Eastern Michigan (170.3)MACA86-80L0%0.0
1-21Buffalo (151.2)MACA66-54L0%0.0
1-24Akron (53.3)MACH80-90L0%0.0
1-28Ball St. (192.2)MACA84-78L0%0.0
1-31Ohio (111.2)MACH90-85W100%0.0
2-3Central Michigan (205.5)MACA86-82L0%0.0
2-7Miami OH (311.0)MACA55-72W100%0.0
2-11Northern Illinois (221.7)MACH76-67W100%0.0
2-14Bowling Green (212.7)MACH89-79W100%0.0
2-18Eastern Michigan (170.3)MACH88-80W100%0.0
2-21Toledo (153.4)MACA56-61W100%0.0
2-25Ball St. (192.2)MACH80-55W100%0.0
2-28Northern Illinois (221.7)MACA0-044%-1.5
3-3Central Michigan (205.5)MACH0-072%6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC26.2526.2742.7244.03-3.82-3.14
Eastern MichiganMAC4.424.2839.1340.52-0.96-0.81
ToledoMAC4.354.2653.8554.040.330.34
Ball St.MAC4.364.2361.5460.471.010.89
Central MichiganMAC2.604.2250.0049.800.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC2.614.2248.0047.54-0.10-0.21
OhioMAC4.424.1966.6767.921.471.50
AkronMAC4.404.1776.9276.622.372.22
Bowling GreenMAC2.742.6144.4443.47-0.30-0.34
Kent St.MAC2.642.5959.2658.840.490.46
Miami OHMAC2.542.5630.7729.06-0.98-1.07
BuffaloMAC2.602.5546.1546.72-0.20-0.17
Cleveland St.Horz2.021.8725.0025.00-1.01-0.94
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.981.8482.1482.141.271.18
OaklandHorz1.951.8175.0075.000.970.91
James MadisonCAA1.921.7827.5927.59-0.86-0.80
UCLAP121.881.7889.2989.831.481.42
WashingtonP121.881.7829.6328.33-0.77-0.77
Alabama A&MSWAC1.881.758.008.39-1.58-1.46
Boise St.MWC1.851.7264.0064.270.520.49
Central ArkansasSlnd1.851.7227.5927.90-0.83-0.76
UTEPCUSA1.851.7242.3143.06-0.28-0.24
VillanovaBE1.851.7289.6689.221.471.35
Green BayHorz0.300.3257.1457.140.040.05
DetroitHorz0.300.2724.1424.14-0.16-0.14
Wright St.Horz0.260.2362.0762.070.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.260.2331.0331.03-0.10-0.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2134.4834.48-0.07-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.240.2153.5754.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1834.4834.48-0.04-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.200.1823.3323.33-0.11-0.10
ElonCAA0.160.1855.1755.170.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1876.6776.670.100.09
William & MaryCAA0.160.1851.8551.850.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.1873.3373.330.090.08
NortheasternCAA0.190.1850.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.1785.7186.430.140.13
IUPUISum0.170.1539.2939.29-0.04-0.03
NevadaMWC0.170.1579.3179.090.100.09
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1565.5265.520.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.160.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.170.1425.9326.04-0.08-0.07
CreightonBE0.160.1475.0074.570.080.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1446.4345.93-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.160.1446.6745.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.1214.8114.35-0.07-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.140.1246.1545.04-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1237.9338.88-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1240.0041.36-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1244.8345.81-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1233.3332.49-0.03-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1221.4322.28-0.06-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.100.1264.2963.720.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1240.0042.28-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1226.9228.27-0.06-0.05
DrexelCAA0.130.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.05
HofstraCAA0.130.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.130.1260.0060.000.030.02
OregonP120.130.1286.2186.570.100.08
Little RockSB0.100.1242.3141.71-0.01-0.02
ArizonaP120.130.1186.6786.550.100.08
Oregon St.P120.130.1113.7913.43-0.09-0.08
USCP120.100.1172.4173.260.040.05
Washington St.P120.100.1144.4441.81-0.01-0.02
SMUAmer0.110.0986.2186.520.080.07
PittsburghACC0.110.0951.7250.150.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.0955.1754.850.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0930.7732.97-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0948.0046.19-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0956.0056.310.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0911.1111.53-0.05-0.07
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0925.9325.10-0.05-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0917.2420.08-0.07-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.070.0948.1547.91-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0960.7163.340.010.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0933.3335.14-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.100.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0911.1111.98-0.08-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.100.0953.5755.070.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.0996.6796.670.090.08
LongwoodBSth0.100.0914.8114.81-0.07-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0930.4331.29-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.100.0962.0762.620.020.02
AmericanPat0.100.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.100.0953.5753.810.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0935.7136.08-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.100.0961.5461.950.020.02
ButlerBE0.090.0879.3179.350.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0653.5753.570.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0653.5753.570.010.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0656.6757.420.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0683.3383.330.050.04
BryantNEC0.070.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0666.6765.560.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0657.6957.830.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0653.5752.450.010.00
IdahoBSky0.040.0652.0053.420.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0661.2961.290.020.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0675.8674.340.020.03
South FloridaAmer0.040.0625.9325.22-0.02-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.0644.4445.15-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0655.5655.160.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0650.0049.680.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0654.1752.440.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0654.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0632.0030.44-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0657.1457.010.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0636.0040.25-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0667.8668.870.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0625.0025.17-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0680.7781.310.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.030.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0629.6331.85-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0650.0052.300.000.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0637.0436.94-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0642.3142.27-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0625.0025.07-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0664.2964.650.010.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0666.6765.850.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0682.7682.930.040.04
PurdueB100.060.0679.3178.860.040.03
UCFAmer0.070.0665.5266.270.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0657.1455.730.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0657.1456.750.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0660.7159.910.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0659.2658.100.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
MercerSC0.070.0642.8643.57-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0634.4833.33-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0665.5265.520.020.02
TCUB120.070.0657.1456.900.010.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0667.8666.480.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0648.1546.78-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0639.1339.73-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0631.0330.04-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.7159.700.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0665.5265.140.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0658.3359.230.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0640.0038.77-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.0762.540.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0664.2962.630.020.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0644.8343.89-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0652.0053.480.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0648.2847.22-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0314.8115.93-0.03-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0311.1111.11-0.03-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0355.5656.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0334.4833.87-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.7780.770.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0319.2322.18-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0350.0052.370.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0334.4834.29-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0344.8343.04-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.5778.180.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0357.1457.030.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.040.0361.5460.990.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0362.0761.020.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0323.0822.49-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
TroySB0.040.0351.8551.300.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0359.2658.390.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.0057.060.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0324.0025.26-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0348.0048.50-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0386.2185.440.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0357.6957.810.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0346.1546.81-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.1547.90-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0360.7161.450.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0340.0039.27-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0334.4834.12-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0344.4445.62-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0358.3360.030.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0362.9663.840.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0347.8349.16-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0330.4330.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.8553.370.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0348.0049.70-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0320.8321.37-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0340.7439.61-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.8674.710.020.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0355.1754.740.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0367.8666.120.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0348.0049.55-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.990.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.5752.890.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0362.5062.610.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.0023.98-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0316.0016.70-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0367.8668.150.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0375.8676.270.020.01