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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:173.0
Current RPI:173
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:137
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:284
Expected OOC SOS:158



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16173.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oakland (109.0)HorzA77-60L0%0.0
11-17Villanova (1.0)BEN76-65L0%0.0
11-18UTEP (222.0)CUSAN85-75L0%0.0
11-20Boise St. (72.0)MWCN91-70L0%0.0
11-26Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH80-63W100%0.0
11-30UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH92-97L0%0.0
12-7Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA85-62L0%0.0
12-10James Madison (255.0)CAAH74-67W100%0.0
12-18Washington (211.0)P12A92-86L0%0.0
12-21UCLA (16.0)P12A82-68L0%0.0
12-29Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH80-50W100%0.0
1-3Ohio (117.0)MACA89-58L0%0.0
1-6Akron (58.0)MACA66-59L0%0.0
1-10Toledo (155.0)MACH90-74W100%0.0
1-14Kent St. (142.0)MACH92-88W100%0.0
1-17Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA86-80L0%0.0
1-21Buffalo (146.0)MACA66-54L0%0.0
1-24Akron (58.0)MACH80-90L0%0.0
1-28Ball St. (169.0)MACA84-78L0%0.0
1-31Ohio (117.0)MACH90-85W100%0.0
2-3Central Michigan (216.0)MACA86-82L0%0.0
2-7Miami OH (302.0)MACA55-72W100%0.0
2-11Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH76-67W100%0.0
2-14Bowling Green (225.0)MACH89-79W100%0.0
2-18Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH88-80W100%0.0
2-21Toledo (155.0)MACA56-61W100%0.0
2-25Ball St. (169.0)MACH80-55W100%0.0
2-28Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA56-70W100%0.0
3-3Central Michigan (216.0)MACH88-80W100%0.0
3-6Miami OH (302.0)MACH65-61W100%0.0
3-9Ball St. (169.0)MACN66-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC26.3326.3347.1147.11-1.52-1.52
Ball St.MAC5.605.6062.0762.071.351.35
Eastern MichiganMAC4.144.1440.7440.74-0.77-0.77
AkronMAC4.104.1074.1974.191.981.98
ToledoMAC4.094.0953.3353.330.270.27
Northern IllinoisMAC4.064.0644.4444.44-0.45-0.45
Central MichiganMAC4.044.0446.4346.43-0.29-0.29
OhioMAC4.034.0364.2964.291.151.15
Miami OHMAC3.983.9832.1432.14-1.42-1.42
Kent St.MAC2.642.6463.6463.640.720.72
Bowling GreenMAC2.552.5540.0040.00-0.51-0.51
BuffaloMAC2.472.4748.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz1.741.7424.1424.14-0.90-0.90
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.711.7183.8783.871.161.16
OaklandHorz1.691.6972.4172.410.760.76
UCLAP121.661.6687.5087.501.251.25
James MadisonCAA1.661.6629.0329.03-0.70-0.70
WashingtonP121.661.6626.6726.67-0.78-0.78
Alabama A&MSWAC1.641.647.147.14-1.40-1.40
Boise St.MWC1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
Central ArkansasSlnd1.611.6125.8125.81-0.78-0.78
UTEPCUSA1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
VillanovaBE1.611.6190.9190.911.321.32
Green BayHorz0.290.2955.1755.170.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.260.2634.3834.38-0.08-0.08
DetroitHorz0.240.2423.3323.33-0.13-0.13
Wright St.Horz0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
DelawareCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.180.1855.8855.880.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1887.8887.880.130.13
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1629.4129.41-0.07-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
ElonCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
USCP120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
CreightonBE0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
NevadaMWC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
OregonP120.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1012.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Washington St.P120.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00