Western Michigan

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	205.0
Current RPI:	205
Expected SOS:	141
Current SOS:	141
Current Record:	13-20
Expected Record:	13-20
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-5
Current OOC Record:	5-9
Expected OOC Record:	5-9
Expected OOC RPI:	111
Expected OOC SOS:	7

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-20	205.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	South Dakota St. (42.0)	Sum	A	82-76	L	0%
11-17	Temple (19.0)	A10	N	55-69	L	0%
11-18	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	N	94-88	L	0%
11-20	Colorado (62.0)	P12	N	81-76	L	0%
11-23	Purdue (48.0)	B10	A	80-37	L	0%
11-26	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	A	78-58	L	0%
12-8	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	A	92-81	L	0%
12-11	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	H	54-43	W	100%
12-17	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	H	85-71	W	100%
12-20	Winthrop (272.0)	BSth	H	60-55	W	100%
12-23	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	A	76-91	W	100%
12-30	Duke (5.0)	ACC	A	110-70	L	0%
1-3	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	H	72-61	W	100%
1-7	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	A	78-69	L	0%
1-11	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	H	77-68	W	100%
1-14	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	H	74-52	W	100%
1-18	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	A	62-59	L	0%
1-21	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	H	64-61	W	100%
1-25	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	A	56-51	L	0%
1-28	Miami OH (247.0)	MAC	H	73-64	W	100%
2-1	Bowling Green (158.0)	MAC	H	48-72	L	0%
2-4	Kent St. (106.0)	MAC	A	78-73	L	0%
2-8	Akron (55.0)	MAC	H	66-69	L	0%
2-11	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	A	59-57	L	0%
2-15	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	A	53-78	W	100%
2-18	North Dakota St. (184.0)	Sum	A	86-73	L	0%
2-22	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	H	78-61	W	100%
2-25	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	A	83-74	L	0%
2-29	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	H	53-54	L	0%
3-2	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	A	76-70	L	0%
3-5	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	H	69-63	W	100%
3-7	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	N	71-54	W	100%
3-8	Kent St. (106.0)	MAC	N	76-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Michigan	MAC	26.32	26.32	37.98	37.98	-6.33	-6.33
Northern Illinois	MAC	5.29	5.29	15.38	15.38	-3.66	-3.66
Ball St.	MAC	5.19	5.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	3.84	3.84	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	3.81	3.81	37.93	37.93	-0.92	-0.92
Central Michigan	MAC	3.81	3.81	31.03	31.03	-1.44	-1.44
Kent St.	MAC	3.61	3.61	62.07	62.07	0.87	0.87
Ohio	MAC	2.24	2.24	78.12	78.12	1.26	1.26
Akron	MAC	2.24	2.24	64.52	64.52	0.65	0.65
Bowling Green	MAC	2.24	2.24	48.28	48.28	-0.08	-0.08
Buffalo	MAC	2.18	2.18	62.96	62.96	0.57	0.57
Miami OH	MAC	2.16	2.16	28.57	28.57	-0.93	-0.93
Temple	A10	1.73	1.73	76.67	76.67	0.93	0.93
Purdue	B10	1.69	1.69	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.67	1.67	27.59	27.59	-0.75	-0.75
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.65	1.65	77.42	77.42	0.90	0.90
Oakland	Sum	1.64	1.64	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.64	1.64	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Detroit	Horz	1.61	1.61	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.61	1.61	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Duquesne	A10	1.59	1.59	51.72	51.72	0.05	0.05
Duke	ACC	1.54	1.54	81.25	81.25	0.96	0.96
Iona	MAAC	1.54	1.54	77.42	77.42	0.84	0.84
Colorado	P12	1.52	1.52	64.52	64.52	0.44	0.44
Gonzaga	WCC	1.52	1.52	80.00	80.00	0.91	0.91
Winthrop	BSth	1.52	1.52	34.48	34.48	-0.47	-0.47
IUPUI	Sum	0.40	0.40	40.00	40.00	-0.08	-0.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.34	0.34	25.00	25.00	-0.17	-0.17
Valparaiso	Horz	0.29	0.29	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Butler	Horz	0.24	0.24	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Arizona	P12	0.22	0.22	67.65	67.65	0.08	0.08
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.22	0.22	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.20	0.20	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.20	0.20	81.82	81.82	0.13	0.13
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.20	0.20	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.19	0.19	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.18	0.18	32.00	32.00	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.18	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.17	0.17	29.63	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.15	0.15	10.71	10.71	-0.12	-0.12
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.15	0.15	28.00	28.00	-0.07	-0.07
Xavier	A10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.12	0.12	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	6.90	6.90	-0.09	-0.09
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	83.87	83.87	0.07	0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.07	0.07	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	18.75	18.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01