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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:127.8
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:298
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:14-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:137
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-419.00.03%
21-532.60.15%
20-635.20.86%
19-747.21.99%
18-860.54.69%
17-974.68.41%
16-1090.312.29%
15-11109.315.75%
14-12128.316.83%
13-13149.115.31%
12-14169.711.12%
11-15191.47.08%
10-16212.03.44%
9-17233.61.35%
8-18249.00.55%
7-19272.30.12%
6-20300.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Oakland (245.0)HorzA71-82W100%0.0
11-22Drake (273.9)MVCH91-75W100%0.0
11-24San Diego (122.8)WCCA0-031%-6.1
11-27Long Beach St. (78.5)BWN0-038%-3.6
12-6Northeastern (62.0)CAAA0-022%-9.1
12-14Pacific (231.5)WCCA0-056%1.7
12-20Northwestern (169.8)B10A0-040%-2.9
12-30New Hampshire (274.9)AEH0-083%11.3
1-6Akron (100.7)MACA0-030%-6.3
1-10Buffalo (78.0)MACH0-055%1.5
1-14Ball St. (233.5)MACH0-079%9.5
1-17Toledo (75.9)MACA0-026%-7.6
1-21Miami OH (237.8)MACA0-061%3.4
1-24Akron (100.7)MACH0-053%0.9
1-27Buffalo (78.0)MACA0-032%-5.7
1-31Eastern Michigan (175.9)MACA0-048%-0.7
2-4Kent St. (73.2)MACH0-047%-0.8
2-7Central Michigan (211.7)MACA0-053%0.9
2-10Bowling Green (101.8)MACA0-033%-5.2
2-14Northern Illinois (211.6)MACH0-074%7.9
2-18Ohio (113.5)MACH0-058%2.4
2-21Toledo (75.9)MACH0-049%-0.4
2-24Ball St. (233.5)MACA0-058%2.3
2-28Eastern Michigan (175.9)MACH0-070%6.5
3-3Northern Illinois (211.6)MACA0-052%0.7
3-6Central Michigan (211.7)MACH0-075%8.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC33.3326.37100.0057.6033.334.01
ToledoMAC0.004.8233.3364.30-0.001.38
Central MichiganMAC0.004.79100.0046.890.00-0.30
Eastern MichiganMAC4.174.77100.0049.914.17-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.004.740.0036.71-0.00-1.26
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.74100.0046.710.00-0.31
BuffaloMAC0.004.6866.6760.890.001.02
AkronMAC0.004.6666.6764.120.001.32
Miami OHMAC0.002.9166.6733.930.00-0.94
Bowling GreenMAC4.172.91100.0061.304.170.66
OhioMAC0.002.8850.0056.810.000.39
Kent St.MAC0.002.87100.0071.630.001.24
OaklandHorz25.002.060.0033.64-25.00-0.67
NorthwesternB100.002.03100.0041.510.00-0.35
San DiegoWCC0.002.0066.6747.520.00-0.10
PacificWCC0.001.9950.0029.300.00-0.83
DrakeMVC25.001.960.0025.98-25.00-0.94
Long Beach St.BW0.001.9233.3353.50-0.000.13
New HampshireAE0.001.920.0042.92-0.00-0.27
NortheasternCAA0.001.92100.0071.230.000.82
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2525.0035.61-0.00-0.07
MaineAE0.000.220.0018.23-0.00-0.14
BYUWCC0.000.18100.0070.030.000.07
PortlandWCC0.000.18100.0051.660.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.18100.0071.830.000.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1850.0044.850.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1733.3322.74-0.00-0.09
Michigan St.B100.000.1766.6771.600.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1766.6754.020.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1633.3346.93-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.15100.0087.190.000.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1533.3327.10-0.00-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.15100.0050.830.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.15100.0062.040.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.140.0027.82-0.00-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1450.0049.760.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.140.0044.91-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.1466.6769.640.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.14100.0080.630.000.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.140.0033.68-0.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1450.0051.860.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.140.0036.19-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.140.0033.25-0.00-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.140.0028.19-0.00-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.000.140.0034.71-0.00-0.04
MichiganB100.000.14100.0064.370.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.14100.0063.550.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1366.6752.030.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1366.6758.650.000.02
IowaB100.000.1350.0065.570.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.1366.6746.540.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1333.3354.50-0.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0025.43-0.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1325.0035.65-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.1333.3341.21-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.130.0032.23-0.00-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1325.0041.91-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.13100.0084.890.000.09
UC IrvineBW0.000.1150.0063.070.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1033.3332.78-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.100.0035.64-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.100.0055.87-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1025.0033.97-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.1050.0054.900.000.01
DePaulBE4.170.10100.0037.854.17-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1050.0031.810.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.1050.0037.760.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0018.48-0.00-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.1066.6752.550.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1066.6748.790.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.100.0067.49-0.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.100.0038.59-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1050.0044.810.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1025.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.1075.0047.170.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1033.3340.99-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.080.0033.98-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0733.3346.76-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0733.3362.56-0.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0775.0042.500.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.070.0043.84-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0733.3364.76-0.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0750.0034.510.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0032.70-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0733.3358.93-0.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0733.3341.92-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.07100.0062.510.000.02
XavierBE0.000.07100.0077.070.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.070.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0750.0044.170.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.50-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0725.0051.56-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0775.0054.790.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.120.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.07100.0074.620.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0042.650.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0766.6769.700.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0733.3359.57-0.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0725.0037.31-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0750.0037.560.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0052.920.000.00
Iowa St.B124.170.07100.0061.834.170.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6751.200.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0073.530.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0750.0045.600.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.070.0033.14-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0072.420.000.03
USCP120.000.0750.0027.780.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0085.100.000.05
MarylandB100.000.07100.0064.500.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.07100.0071.340.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0042.47-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0625.0035.71-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.650.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0056.39-0.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0040.58-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0029.55-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.130.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6762.810.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0085.630.000.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.07-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.70-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0071.440.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.33-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0675.0053.860.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0057.060.000.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6744.970.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.040.0033.08-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.040.0028.34-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.04100.0057.540.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.040.0031.92-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0433.3321.74-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0466.6773.760.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0475.0063.040.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0450.0041.480.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0433.3341.16-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.040.0018.27-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.04100.0072.860.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0466.6776.510.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.040.0033.75-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0450.0037.890.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.630.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.540.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0081.740.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0069.320.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0350.0053.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0057.63-0.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3336.99-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.89-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3335.41-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0325.0059.16-0.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.840.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.01-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0030.790.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.23-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0325.0031.12-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.960.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.73-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6761.350.000.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01