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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:202.0
Current RPI:202
Expected SOS:105
Current SOS:105
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19202.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14DePaul (198.0)BEA69-63L0%0.0
11-17San Diego (302.0)WCCH74-62W100%0.0
11-21UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA80-76L0%0.0
11-26Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndN79-71L0%0.0
11-27Liberty (264.0)BSthN68-58W100%0.0
11-29Mercer (194.0)SCN68-65L0%0.0
12-3James Madison (103.0)CAAA63-57L0%0.0
12-7Northeastern (109.0)CAAH87-86W100%0.0
12-22IPFW (71.0)SumH86-89L0%0.0
12-30Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA86-61L0%0.0
1-2Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH76-72W100%0.0
1-5Kent St. (124.0)MACH84-87L0%0.0
1-8Akron (34.0)MACA62-53L0%0.0
1-12Ball St. (179.0)MACH64-74L0%0.0
1-16Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH83-69W100%0.0
1-19Ohio (81.0)MACA82-64L0%0.0
1-23Buffalo (90.0)MACH91-71W100%0.0
1-26Bowling Green (200.0)MACH78-79L0%0.0
1-30Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH94-86W100%0.0
2-2Toledo (182.0)MACA89-62L0%0.0
2-6Ball St. (179.0)MACA75-71L0%0.0
2-9Miami OH (195.0)MACH44-45L0%0.0
2-13Bowling Green (200.0)MACA68-74W100%0.0
2-16Kent St. (124.0)MACA85-78L0%0.0
2-20Central Michigan (156.0)MACH92-85W100%0.0
2-23Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA73-62L0%0.0
2-27Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA76-67L0%0.0
3-1Toledo (182.0)MACH70-64W100%0.0
3-4Central Michigan (156.0)MACA82-91W100%0.0
3-7Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA56-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC26.3226.3234.6834.68-8.07-8.07
Northern IllinoisMAC5.735.7357.6957.690.880.88
Eastern MichiganMAC4.204.2048.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Central MichiganMAC4.174.1751.8551.850.150.15
ToledoMAC4.164.1651.7251.720.140.14
Bowling GreenMAC4.154.1543.3343.33-0.55-0.55
Ball St.MAC4.134.1355.1755.170.430.43
Kent St.MAC4.064.0655.1755.170.420.42
AkronMAC2.622.6275.0075.001.311.31
OhioMAC2.592.5963.3363.330.690.69
Miami OHMAC2.582.5835.4835.48-0.75-0.75
BuffaloMAC2.532.5359.3859.380.470.47
NortheasternCAA1.831.8354.8454.840.180.18
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.801.8075.8675.860.930.93
James MadisonCAA1.771.7763.3363.330.470.47
IPFWSum1.721.7270.0070.000.690.69
JacksonvilleASun1.691.6944.4444.44-0.19-0.19
DePaulBE1.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
LibertyBSth1.671.6735.7135.71-0.48-0.48
MercerSC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
San DiegoWCC1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.671.6781.4881.481.051.05
VanderbiltSEC1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
William & MaryCAA0.270.2762.0762.070.070.07
DetroitHorz0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
DrexelCAA0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
TowsonCAA0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
DelawareCAA0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
Chicago St.WAC0.170.173.453.45-0.16-0.16
South DakotaSum0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
ElonCAA0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Penn St.B100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
IUPUISum0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
NJITASun0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Ohio St.B100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
TulaneAmer0.090.0935.2935.29-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00