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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:119.0
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:157
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:315



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13119.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19Oakland (155.0)HorzA71-82W100%0.0
11-22Drake (269.0)MVCH91-75W100%0.0
11-24San Diego (157.0)WCCA77-70L0%0.0
11-27Long Beach St. (111.0)BWN55-73L0%0.0
11-28San Jose St. (336.0)MWCN60-79W100%0.0
11-30San Diego (157.0)WCCN68-66W100%0.0
12-6Northeastern (86.0)CAAA81-69L0%0.0
12-14Pacific (241.0)WCCA72-80W100%0.0
12-20Northwestern (125.0)B10A67-61L0%0.0
12-22Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH71-62W100%0.0
12-30New Hampshire (193.0)AEH70-56W100%0.0
1-6Akron (115.0)MACA72-52L0%0.0
1-10Buffalo (28.0)MACH78-68W100%0.0
1-14Ball St. (284.0)MACH95-93W100%0.0
1-17Toledo (79.0)MACA78-81W100%0.0
1-21Miami OH (229.0)MACA58-69W100%0.0
1-24Akron (115.0)MACH69-71L0%0.0
1-27Buffalo (28.0)MACA77-71L0%0.0
1-31Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA69-63L0%0.0
2-4Kent St. (94.0)MACH67-66W100%0.0
2-7Central Michigan (70.0)MACA70-65L0%0.0
2-10Bowling Green (109.0)MACA65-49L0%0.0
2-14Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH69-65W100%0.0
2-18Ohio (231.0)MACH80-69W100%0.0
2-21Toledo (79.0)MACH87-97L0%0.0
2-24Ball St. (284.0)MACA48-53W100%0.0
2-28Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH80-72W100%0.0
3-3Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA65-63L0%0.0
3-6Central Michigan (70.0)MACH74-62W100%0.0
3-9Ohio (231.0)MACH82-74W100%0.0
3-11Akron (115.0)MACN45-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC26.3926.3960.4760.475.525.52
AkronMAC5.665.6654.8454.840.550.55
ToledoMAC4.164.1661.2961.290.940.94
Central MichiganMAC4.144.1473.0873.081.911.91
Eastern MichiganMAC4.124.1257.1457.140.590.59
BuffaloMAC4.094.0973.3373.331.911.91
Northern IllinoisMAC4.044.0444.4444.44-0.45-0.45
OhioMAC4.014.0135.7135.71-1.15-1.15
Ball St.MAC3.993.9922.2222.22-2.22-2.22
San DiegoWCC3.283.2846.4346.43-0.23-0.23
Bowling GreenMAC2.622.6265.5265.520.810.81
Miami OHMAC2.532.5340.0040.00-0.51-0.51
Kent St.MAC2.522.5266.6766.670.840.84
PacificWCC1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
OaklandHorz1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB101.701.7045.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Alabama A&MSWAC1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
DrakeMVC1.641.6427.5927.59-0.74-0.74
Long Beach St.BW1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
New HampshireAE1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
NortheasternCAA1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
San Jose St.MWC1.611.610.000.00-1.61-1.61
PepperdineWCC0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.240.2437.5037.50-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
MaineAE0.170.1710.0010.00-0.14-0.14
GonzagaWCC0.170.1793.9493.940.150.15
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
DetroitHorz0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
BradleyMVC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
DePaulBE0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
DaytonA100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
LongwoodBSth0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
UMBCAE0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.110.000.00-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.060.06
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
VermontAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00