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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:128.0
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:218
Current SOS:218
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:193


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12128.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Cornell (248.0)IvyA63-55L0%0.0
11-16Loyola Chicago (223.0)HorzN81-71W100%0.0
11-17Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACN51-68W100%0.0
11-18South Florida (156.0)BEA53-58W100%0.0
11-29High Point (249.0)BSthH54-53W100%0.0
12-1Oakland (152.0)SumH76-72W100%0.0
12-4Michigan (20.0)B10A73-41L0%0.0
12-8Illinois St. (117.0)MVCA85-63L0%0.0
12-16High Point (249.0)BSthA64-70W100%0.0
12-19Duquesne (229.0)A10A71-66L0%0.0
12-22Mount St. Mary's (121.0)NECH87-66W100%0.0
12-29North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCA84-68L0%0.0
1-9Akron (43.0)MACA65-43L0%0.0
1-12Ohio (67.0)MACH59-61L0%0.0
1-16Toledo (193.0)MACH79-56W100%0.0
1-19Northern Illinois (333.0)MACA34-71W100%0.0
1-23Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACH63-59W100%0.0
1-26Central Michigan (268.0)MACA59-76W100%0.0
1-30Miami OH (258.0)MACA68-72W100%0.0
2-2Buffalo (215.0)MACH71-60W100%0.0
2-6Kent St. (131.0)MACH82-76W100%0.0
2-9Ball St. (233.0)MACA65-62L0%0.0
2-13Bowling Green (274.0)MACA70-60L0%0.0
2-16Northern Illinois (333.0)MACH66-58W100%0.0
2-23Pacific (97.0)BWH67-62W100%0.0
2-27Toledo (193.0)MACA62-65W100%0.0
3-2Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACA50-49L0%0.0
3-5Ball St. (233.0)MACH85-89L0%0.0
3-9Central Michigan (268.0)MACH71-68W100%0.0
3-14Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACN70-55W100%0.0
3-15Ohio (67.0)MACN74-63L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC26.3126.3165.4165.418.118.11
Eastern MichiganMAC5.605.6042.8642.86-0.80-0.80
Northern IllinoisMAC4.004.0014.8114.81-2.81-2.81
Central MichiganMAC3.953.9535.7135.71-1.13-1.13
Ball St.MAC3.923.9244.4444.44-0.44-0.44
ToledoMAC3.923.9257.6957.690.600.60
OhioMAC3.873.8770.9770.971.621.62
High PointBSth3.233.2357.6957.690.500.50
BuffaloMAC2.362.3638.7138.71-0.53-0.53
Miami OHMAC2.352.3527.5927.59-1.05-1.05
Kent St.MAC2.302.3061.2961.290.520.52
AkronMAC2.292.2980.0080.001.381.38
Bowling GreenMAC2.272.2734.4834.48-0.70-0.70
Loyola ChicagoHorz1.811.8148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
MichiganB101.771.7777.4277.420.970.97
OaklandSum1.741.7448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.711.717.417.41-1.46-1.46
South FloridaBE1.701.7040.0040.00-0.34-0.34
North Carolina St.ACC1.661.6669.7069.700.660.66
CornellIvy1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
DuquesneA101.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
PacificBW1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Cleveland St.Horz0.290.2937.9337.93-0.07-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.270.2751.6151.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.260.2665.6265.620.080.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
IUPUISum0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
BradleyMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Penn St.B100.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
DaytonA100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
IndianaB100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Michigan St.B100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
PittsburghBE0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
PrincetonIvy0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Virginia Military InstBSth0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
DePaulBE0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
WinthropBSth0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
WoffordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
SyracuseBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
LouisvilleBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0817.2417.24-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ButlerA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
GramblingSWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CharlotteA100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
IowaB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
YaleIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
XavierA100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
BryantNEC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
CreightonMVC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0628.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00