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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:212.4
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:107
Current SOS:142
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:254
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1066.00.01%
18-1186.50.04%
17-1297.70.20%
16-13113.00.79%
15-14127.32.56%
14-15145.75.01%
13-16164.49.44%
12-17185.314.19%
11-18204.718.40%
10-19224.217.65%
9-20243.014.70%
8-21260.69.81%
7-22276.54.63%
6-23292.91.93%
5-24304.10.50%
4-25313.70.11%
3-26328.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oakland (89.5)HorzA77-60L0%0.0
11-17Villanova (7.4)BEN76-65L0%0.0
11-18UTEP (255.5)CUSAN85-75L0%0.0
11-20Boise St. (106.2)MWCN91-70L0%0.0
11-26Central Arkansas (282.4)SlndH80-63W100%0.0
11-30UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAH92-97L0%0.0
12-7Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzA0-055%1.5
12-10James Madison (268.0)CAAH0-070%6.4
12-18Washington (105.3)P12A0-013%-13.4
12-21UCLA (19.0)P12A0-02%-23.9
12-29Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-098%23.8
1-3Ohio (94.7)MACA0-021%-9.7
1-6Akron (74.5)MACA0-016%-11.8
1-10Toledo (153.9)MACH0-052%0.7
1-14Kent St. (205.9)MACH0-053%0.9
1-17Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACA0-023%-9.0
1-21Buffalo (138.0)MACA0-031%-6.0
1-24Akron (74.5)MACH0-032%-5.6
1-28Ball St. (212.5)MACA0-036%-4.3
1-31Ohio (94.7)MACH0-038%-3.5
2-4Central Michigan (157.8)MACA0-032%-5.6
2-7Miami OH (271.3)MACA0-052%0.7
2-11Northern Illinois (209.4)MACH0-056%1.8
2-14Bowling Green (217.3)MACH0-059%2.7
2-18Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH0-041%-2.8
2-21Toledo (153.9)MACA0-032%-5.5
2-25Ball St. (212.5)MACH0-056%1.8
2-28Northern Illinois (209.4)MACA0-036%-4.4
3-3Central Michigan (157.8)MACH0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC29.3226.2810.7134.97-23.03-7.90
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.2850.0054.850.000.42
ToledoMAC0.694.2642.8649.83-0.10-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.004.2350.0052.210.000.19
Central MichiganMAC0.004.2366.6756.240.000.53
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.2242.8644.62-0.00-0.45
OhioMAC0.004.1980.0068.170.001.52
AkronMAC0.004.1783.3369.390.001.62
Bowling GreenMAC0.692.6233.3343.73-0.23-0.33
Kent St.MAC0.002.5950.0051.990.000.10
Miami OHMAC0.002.5650.0032.490.00-0.90
BuffaloMAC0.002.5640.0050.27-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.8716.6729.75-0.00-0.76
UNC WilmingtonCAA8.331.8480.0076.385.000.97
OaklandHorz8.331.8180.0077.665.001.00
James MadisonCAA0.001.780.0028.09-0.00-0.78
UCLAP120.001.78100.0083.080.001.18
WashingtonP120.001.7857.1451.450.000.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.001.750.0013.69-0.00-1.27
Boise St.MWC8.331.7240.0057.51-1.670.26
Central ArkansasSlnd8.331.7216.6730.13-5.56-0.69
UTEPCUSA8.331.720.0041.16-8.33-0.30
VillanovaBE8.331.72100.0082.568.331.12
Green BayHorz0.000.3233.3348.71-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.270.0019.51-0.00-0.16
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2442.8637.60-0.00-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.000.2371.4355.750.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2114.2928.66-0.00-0.09
MarshallCUSA0.000.2183.3359.600.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1833.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1850.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1833.3333.15-0.00-0.06
ElonCAA0.000.1883.3358.030.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1885.7174.430.000.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.690.1785.7173.010.500.08
William & MaryCAA0.000.1740.0055.44-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1757.1448.240.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA1.290.1762.5056.500.320.02
IUPUISum0.000.1528.5747.72-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1550.0052.140.000.01
NevadaMWC0.690.1575.0070.470.350.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.150.0018.22-0.00-0.09
CreightonBE0.000.14100.0076.650.000.08
DelawareCAA0.000.1440.0040.65-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.690.1433.3340.39-0.23-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.040.1450.0056.430.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1457.1436.050.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.1216.6733.69-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1242.8634.17-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.1225.0056.92-0.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.120.0039.35-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1216.6743.29-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0042.710.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0024.25-0.00-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1228.5734.18-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6770.740.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1214.2934.56-0.00-0.04
Little RockSB0.600.1260.0057.900.120.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1142.8636.82-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1157.1440.550.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1150.0054.490.000.01
OregonP120.690.1171.4366.730.300.04
ArizonaP120.000.1185.7170.990.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1128.5723.76-0.00-0.06
USCP120.000.11100.0075.380.000.06
Washington St.P120.000.1150.0036.820.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0985.7155.550.000.01
SMUAmer0.690.0957.1469.300.100.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0933.3323.33-0.00-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3335.92-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0971.4358.670.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0058.600.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.690.090.0017.30-0.69-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.060.000.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0024.77-0.00-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.460.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3336.31-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0940.0037.44-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0957.1467.020.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0916.6735.65-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0023.26-0.00-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0034.01-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.690.0942.8646.78-0.10-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0925.0024.66-0.00-0.04
XavierBE0.000.09100.0074.800.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0971.4359.850.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0975.0061.040.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0075.690.000.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0620.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC1.740.0671.4343.020.74-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.560.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC1.640.0671.4352.370.700.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
PurdueB100.600.0671.4374.450.260.03
UCFAmer0.600.0683.3374.620.400.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0056.71-0.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.690.030.0019.30-0.69-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.690.0333.3327.13-0.23-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.690.0357.1448.410.10-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0022.69-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0316.6730.02-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.690.0383.3380.700.460.02
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01
ArmyPat0.600.0333.3345.58-0.20-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.600.0366.6769.810.200.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
LafayettePat0.600.0333.3331.87-0.20-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.600.0383.3356.560.400.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
PennIvy0.600.0340.0057.97-0.120.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.600.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
WisconsinB100.600.0375.0073.840.300.01