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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Western Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:66.0
Current RPI:66
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:140
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:253



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-966.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8New Mexico St. (72.0)WACN64-70W100%0.0
11-9Hawaii (160.0)BWA78-68L0%0.0
11-11Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCN63-52W100%0.0
11-17Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH73-69W100%0.0
11-20North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH74-83L0%0.0
11-26Oakland (181.0)HorzH99-88W100%0.0
11-29Cornell (334.0)IvyH83-70W100%0.0
12-7Northwestern (123.0)B10A51-35L0%0.0
12-15Missouri (49.0)SECA66-60L0%0.0
12-18Drake (174.0)MVCA71-68L0%0.0
12-21Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH92-53W100%0.0
1-8Toledo (38.0)MACH87-76W100%0.0
1-11Miami OH (161.0)MACA77-78W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA56-37L0%0.0
1-19Bowling Green (194.0)MACH64-69L0%0.0
1-23Kent St. (213.0)MACA59-75W100%0.0
1-26Ball St. (309.0)MACH62-53W100%0.0
1-29Buffalo (106.0)MACA84-63L0%0.0
2-1Central Michigan (294.0)MACH75-72W100%0.0
2-5Ohio (87.0)MACH90-74W100%0.0
2-9Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA71-74W100%0.0
2-12Akron (93.0)MACH57-54W100%0.0
2-15Miami OH (161.0)MACH68-57W100%0.0
2-19Ohio (87.0)MACA63-73W100%0.0
2-23Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH75-67W100%0.0
2-26Ball St. (309.0)MACA81-88W100%0.0
3-1Toledo (38.0)MACA96-85L0%0.0
3-4Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH61-56W100%0.0
3-7Central Michigan (294.0)MACA64-78W100%0.0
3-14Akron (93.0)MACN64-60W100%0.0
3-15Toledo (38.0)MACN98-77W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western MichiganMAC26.3426.3473.6873.6812.4712.47
ToledoMAC5.635.6386.2186.214.084.08
Eastern MichiganMAC4.254.2556.6756.670.570.57
OhioMAC4.174.1770.9770.971.751.75
Northern IllinoisMAC4.074.0748.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Central MichiganMAC4.064.0629.6329.63-1.65-1.65
Ball St.MAC4.054.0511.5411.54-3.12-3.12
AkronMAC4.044.0467.7467.741.431.43
Miami OHMAC4.034.0346.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Bowling GreenMAC2.492.4933.3333.33-0.83-0.83
Kent St.MAC2.482.4850.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC2.472.4762.9662.960.640.64
Alabama A&MSWAC1.761.7644.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Tennessee St.OVC1.751.7514.2914.29-1.25-1.25
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.721.7231.2531.25-0.65-0.65
New Mexico St.WAC1.721.7275.7675.760.890.89
OaklandHorz1.711.7136.6736.67-0.46-0.46
HawaiiBW1.691.6960.7160.710.360.36
MissouriSEC1.671.6765.6265.620.520.52
NorthwesternB101.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
DrakeMVC1.641.6444.8344.83-0.17-0.17
CornellIvy1.611.613.853.85-1.49-1.49
North Dakota St.Sum1.611.6177.7877.780.900.90
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.3163.3363.330.080.08
DetroitHorz0.280.2836.6736.67-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.210.2175.0075.000.100.10
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.1940.6240.62-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
IPFWSum0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.130.1310.3410.34-0.11-0.11
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.8114.81-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UMKCWAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
IowaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
WisconsinB100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.090.0970.3770.370.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
BrownIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
IdahoWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01