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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:107.3
Current RPI:63
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:114
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-2
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-551.00.01%
25-663.30.34%
24-772.02.73%
23-881.110.05%
22-991.919.86%
21-10103.326.36%
20-11116.021.13%
19-12130.612.26%
18-13145.45.10%
17-14163.01.78%
16-15179.50.31%
15-16197.70.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12UT Arlington (72.7)SBA89-82L0%0.0
11-13Delaware St. (289.6)MEACA61-74W100%0.0
11-16Rice (102.7)CUSAA68-71W100%0.0
11-19La Salle (107.7)A10A76-77W100%0.0
11-21James Madison (268.0)CAAA56-67W100%0.0
11-27Louisiana Lafayette (110.0)SBA84-73L0%0.0
11-30Arizona (28.2)P12A85-63L0%0.0
12-3Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCA0-040%-3.1
12-10Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-03%-23.0
12-13Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA0-06%-18.2
12-17LSU (94.2)SECA0-026%-7.6
12-18TCU (53.5)B12A0-013%-13.6
12-21Baylor (11.5)B12A0-05%-20.1
1-2Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACA0-085%12.4
1-4Southern (238.0)SWACA0-062%3.7
1-7Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACA0-084%12.0
1-14Grambling St. (333.4)SWACH0-095%20.2
1-16Jackson St. (300.4)SWACH0-088%14.3
1-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACA0-089%14.8
1-23Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACA0-088%14.0
1-28Alabama St. (324.9)SWACH0-093%17.9
1-30Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-099%27.4
2-4Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACH0-094%18.2
2-11Grambling St. (333.4)SWACA0-088%14.0
2-13Jackson St. (300.4)SWACA0-075%8.1
2-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH0-096%21.0
2-20Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACH0-095%20.2
2-25Alabama St. (324.9)SWACA0-084%11.7
2-27Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA0-096%21.2
3-2Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACH0-094%18.6
3-4Southern (238.0)SWACH0-080%9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC28.9526.3675.6877.0914.8614.28
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.1514.2936.25-0.00-1.14
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.150.0044.41-0.00-0.46
SouthernSWAC0.004.1525.0059.06-0.000.75
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.130.0025.91-0.00-1.99
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.130.0025.46-0.00-2.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.1316.6734.16-0.00-1.31
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.130.0014.10-0.00-2.96
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.1228.5736.17-0.00-1.14
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.110.0034.21-0.00-1.30
BaylorB120.001.81100.0073.740.000.86
Louisiana LafayetteSB8.251.7260.0059.961.650.34
TCUB120.001.72100.0058.520.000.29
Delaware St.MEAC8.251.6720.0037.64-4.95-0.41
James MadisonCAA8.251.670.0029.12-8.25-0.70
UT ArlingtonSB7.141.6750.0063.690.000.46
RiceCUSA8.251.67100.0071.478.250.72
LouisvilleACC0.001.6785.7175.250.000.84
Southern IllinoisMVC0.001.6450.0046.200.00-0.12
ArizonaP127.141.6183.3370.024.760.65
CincinnatiAmer0.001.6185.7180.540.000.99
La SalleA107.141.6175.0053.633.570.12
LSUSEC0.001.6171.4348.950.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.3140.0067.95-0.000.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2250.0056.260.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2033.3323.33-0.00-0.10
UABCUSA0.000.1957.1461.940.000.05
TroySB0.000.1933.3332.23-0.00-0.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1971.4368.970.000.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1720.0032.60-0.00-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1714.2928.66-0.00-0.07
Texas St.SB0.000.1650.0043.310.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.160.0021.30-0.00-0.09
Texas TechB120.000.1685.7163.780.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1685.7155.890.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1683.3356.560.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1683.3380.550.000.10
Georgia TechACC0.000.1566.6739.720.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1433.3340.39-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1466.6775.370.000.07
Georgia St.SB0.000.1460.0067.410.000.05
Little RockSB0.000.1460.0057.900.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.510.1466.6765.810.170.04
TexasB120.510.1450.0036.240.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.1383.3376.370.000.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1266.6754.420.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1250.0056.430.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.1183.3363.610.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0023.46-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0024.32-0.00-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.1183.3359.600.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1150.0058.600.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1140.0030.80-0.00-0.04
Montana St.BSky2.210.1150.0062.460.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1120.0036.00-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1185.7168.390.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.1150.0051.820.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.1114.2926.81-0.00-0.05
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0082.550.000.07
DelawareCAA0.710.1140.0040.65-0.14-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1175.0064.960.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1150.0045.920.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.510.1183.3362.840.340.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1150.0029.280.00-0.04
George MasonA100.510.1157.1442.940.07-0.02
KansasB120.000.1185.7176.170.000.06
OklahomaB120.000.1183.3351.920.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.1157.1469.300.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1171.4386.030.000.08
IndianaB100.000.1183.3375.060.000.05
SeattleWAC0.000.1120.0042.63-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.630.000.01
Michigan St.B100.510.1050.0061.590.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0937.5034.65-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0024.19-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0875.0047.510.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0885.7159.740.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0828.5739.44-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.510.0857.1443.680.07-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0850.0045.410.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0883.3361.150.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0842.8634.17-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.510.0866.6751.090.170.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.510.0850.0071.330.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0857.1447.320.00-0.00
MinnesotaB101.110.0885.7165.670.790.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0842.8661.90-0.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0816.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0833.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0871.4370.330.000.03
DrexelCAA0.710.0842.8636.82-0.10-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0857.1444.160.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0850.0050.940.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0089.040.000.06
UTSACUSA0.000.0828.5728.46-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0885.7178.150.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.0883.3355.200.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0862.5056.500.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0850.0066.170.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0054.320.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0885.7155.550.000.01
TempleAmer0.710.0871.4363.570.310.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0871.4358.670.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0828.5723.76-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
UtahP120.000.0875.0061.040.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.060.000.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0566.6754.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.510.0512.5048.98-0.38-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0557.1448.600.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.600.0580.0055.340.360.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0566.6756.360.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0533.3341.11-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0560.0039.610.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0557.1440.550.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3346.81-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0560.0043.970.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0571.4346.010.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0571.4343.020.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0557.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0528.5750.51-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0550.0054.490.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.170.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0571.4349.590.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0575.0073.840.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.050.0033.58-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0086.250.000.04
OregonP120.000.0571.4366.730.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0557.1436.050.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.510.05100.0075.690.510.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0566.6770.930.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0540.0050.71-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0571.4366.220.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0075.010.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0566.6732.240.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0575.0059.100.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0583.3374.620.000.03
UCLAP120.000.05100.0083.550.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0525.0040.81-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.05100.0075.380.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6770.140.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.510.030.0038.51-0.51-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.510.030.0037.92-0.51-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.710.0333.3367.01-0.240.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.510.0333.3348.73-0.17-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.600.0342.8637.25-0.09-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
St. John'sBE0.600.0328.5733.92-0.26-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0083.120.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0042.420.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.510.0350.0059.670.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.510.0316.6740.71-0.34-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.510.0342.8638.05-0.07-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.510.0337.5036.24-0.13-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01