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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:239.0
Current RPI:239
Expected SOS:347
Current SOS:347
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-9
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14239.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH95-83W100%0.0
11-14Miami FL (110.0)ACCA84-69L0%0.0
11-16FIU (202.0)CUSAA70-68L0%0.0
11-18Texas Tech (121.0)B12A80-71L0%0.0
11-21Stanford (41.0)P12A97-71L0%0.0
11-25Lehigh (236.0)PatN67-63L0%0.0
11-26Howard (323.0)MEACN54-63W100%0.0
12-4Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA98-71L0%0.0
12-15Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA87-80L0%0.0
12-18Temple (175.0)AmerA89-90W100%0.0
12-29TCU (212.0)B12A77-64L0%0.0
1-4Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH83-66W100%0.0
1-6Southern (171.0)SWACH71-79L0%0.0
1-11Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH87-83W100%0.0
1-18Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA72-74W100%0.0
1-20Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA84-80L0%0.0
1-25Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH94-56W100%0.0
1-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH72-71W100%0.0
2-1Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA63-62L0%0.0
2-3Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA79-73L0%0.0
2-8Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA85-77L0%0.0
2-15Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH74-71W100%0.0
2-17Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH73-75L0%0.0
2-22Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACA65-73W100%0.0
2-24Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACA55-65W100%0.0
3-1Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH86-66W100%0.0
3-3Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH79-58W100%0.0
3-6Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACA69-77W100%0.0
3-8Southern (171.0)SWACA64-67W100%0.0
3-12Grambling St. (348.0)SWACN79-54W100%0.0
3-14Alabama St. (254.0)SWACN73-61W100%0.0
3-15Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACN78-73W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC26.6526.6562.3262.326.576.57
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.845.8430.0030.00-2.34-2.34
Grambling St.SWAC5.725.7216.6716.67-3.81-3.81
Alabama St.SWAC5.715.7160.0060.001.141.14
Alabama A&MSWAC4.274.2742.3142.31-0.66-0.66
Jackson St.SWAC4.244.2431.0331.03-1.61-1.61
Alcorn St.SWAC4.234.2334.6234.62-1.30-1.30
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.224.2222.2222.22-2.34-2.34
SouthernSWAC4.224.2255.5655.560.470.47
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.204.2040.7440.74-0.78-0.78
TCUB121.751.7521.4321.43-1.00-1.00
TulsaCUSA1.671.6762.5062.500.420.42
Norfolk St.MEAC1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
Texas TechB121.621.6241.9441.94-0.26-0.26
HowardMEAC1.611.6120.0020.00-0.97-0.97
Miami FLACC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
FIUCUSA1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
LehighPat1.561.5641.9441.94-0.25-0.25
StanfordP121.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
TempleAmer1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
TulaneCUSA0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.230.2363.6463.640.060.06
Arizona St.P120.210.2165.6265.620.060.06
HoustonAmer0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
BaylorB120.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1878.7978.790.100.10
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
MarquetteBE0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Washington St.P120.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
UCLAP120.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
TroySB0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
DenverSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
SMUAmer0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
TexasB120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
UCFAmer0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
UC DavisBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BucknellPat0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02