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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:230.0
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:41
Current Record:1-8
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-6
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:225
Expected OOC SOS:8



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11128.00.04%
19-12137.50.59%
18-13152.02.03%
17-14171.56.21%
16-15189.512.47%
15-16209.918.78%
14-17230.220.60%
13-18250.317.86%
12-19269.911.75%
11-20287.85.87%
10-21302.92.75%
9-22314.90.82%
8-23323.10.18%
7-24330.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Washington (59.0)BSkyA86-62L0%0.0
11-17Indiana (78.8)B10A83-64L0%0.0
11-20Tennessee (132.1)SECA70-58L0%0.0
11-22Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACA76-66L0%0.0
11-26SMU (38.2)AmerA72-59L0%0.0
11-28Lamar (281.4)SlndH71-59W100%0.0
12-1Baylor (9.7)B12A75-49L0%0.0
12-12Florida (40.9)SECA75-50L0%0.0
12-15Gonzaga (12.3)WCCA94-54L0%0.0
12-20Michigan St. (32.0)B10A0-02%-24.8
12-23Auburn (210.2)SECA0-025%-7.9
12-28Kansas St. (131.3)B12A0-013%-13.2
12-30New Mexico St. (109.3)WACA0-09%-15.7
1-3Alcorn St. (324.2)SWACA0-058%2.4
1-5Southern (310.7)SWACA0-052%0.6
1-10Prairie View A&M (293.3)SWACA0-045%-1.6
1-17Grambling St. (348.9)SWACH0-097%23.0
1-19Jackson St. (303.6)SWACH0-076%8.2
1-24Mississippi Valley St. (346.7)SWACA0-080%10.0
1-26Arkansas Pine Bluff (323.7)SWACA0-062%3.5
1-31Alabama St. (227.4)SWACH0-056%1.7
2-2Alabama A&M (332.2)SWACH0-085%12.2
2-7Prairie View A&M (293.3)SWACH0-073%7.4
2-14Grambling St. (348.9)SWACA0-088%14.1
2-16Jackson St. (303.6)SWACA0-047%-0.8
2-21Mississippi Valley St. (346.7)SWACH0-095%18.9
2-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (323.7)SWACH0-085%12.4
2-28Alabama St. (227.4)SWACA0-027%-7.2
3-2Alabama A&M (332.2)SWACA0-061%3.2
3-5Alcorn St. (324.2)SWACH0-083%11.3
3-7Southern (310.7)SWACH0-079%9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC27.8326.3911.1152.78-21.651.47
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.1811.1131.27-0.00-1.57
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.284.1810.0018.79-0.22-2.61
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.314.170.0038.61-0.31-0.95
SouthernSWAC0.004.170.0034.10-0.00-1.33
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.1510.0040.46-0.00-0.79
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.140.0032.87-0.00-1.42
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.130.0032.42-0.00-1.45
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.130.0011.41-0.00-3.19
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.1333.3364.38-0.001.19
BaylorB125.561.8387.5074.214.170.89
IndianaB106.571.8077.7856.153.650.22
SMUAmer6.821.7362.5069.481.700.67
Michigan St.B100.001.7270.0070.050.000.69
Kansas St.B120.401.6960.0036.650.08-0.45
TennesseeSEC5.561.6950.0043.650.00-0.21
Eastern WashingtonBSky6.141.6762.5075.511.540.85
LamarSlnd6.141.6716.6733.50-4.09-0.55
FloridaSEC5.561.6755.5663.610.620.45
AuburnSEC0.001.6737.5030.58-0.00-0.65
GonzagaWCC5.861.6488.8990.714.561.34
New Mexico St.WAC0.001.6440.0064.15-0.000.46
Norfolk St.MEAC5.561.6444.4455.10-0.620.17
TCUB120.000.28100.0067.440.000.10
Iowa St.B120.400.2488.8964.670.310.07
Texas TechB120.000.2487.5047.890.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.310.2077.7871.340.170.08
TulaneAmer0.000.1987.5054.670.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.590.1975.0060.540.290.04
GeorgiaSEC0.280.1962.5059.380.070.04
Texas A&MSEC0.310.1977.7866.040.170.06
KansasB120.670.1888.8969.900.520.07
PurdueB100.000.1772.7363.400.000.04
TexasB120.000.1790.0081.780.000.11
MemphisAmer0.310.1650.0059.030.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1688.8964.140.000.05
MississippiSEC0.000.1666.6751.450.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1683.3358.570.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.1677.7861.940.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1657.1447.630.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.400.1542.8644.96-0.06-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.310.1550.0074.020.000.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.1462.5078.030.080.08
Oregon St.P120.000.1475.0050.490.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.310.1362.5064.900.080.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1344.4469.77-0.000.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1366.6744.720.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1355.5639.260.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0058.490.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1244.4449.79-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.1266.6772.150.000.05
MarquetteBE0.400.1155.5647.220.04-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1157.1459.520.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1140.0049.29-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.1172.7362.660.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.1150.0037.020.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.310.1177.7873.060.170.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1111.1129.23-0.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1166.6753.390.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1170.0066.510.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1177.7864.850.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.1142.8636.73-0.00-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.1150.0048.280.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1116.6727.17-0.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6755.560.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1144.4431.46-0.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.400.1150.0041.450.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.1155.5642.720.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0094.460.000.09
OklahomaB120.000.1177.7868.030.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1190.0067.550.000.04
IllinoisB100.310.1070.0066.410.120.03
MarylandB100.000.1090.9167.920.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0925.0033.19-0.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.310.09100.0070.570.310.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.310.0925.0049.05-0.15-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0990.0065.960.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0990.9171.250.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0916.6725.01-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.400.0960.0047.810.08-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.0842.8643.01-0.04-0.01
SeattleWAC0.310.0837.5045.72-0.08-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.310.0833.3341.10-0.10-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0828.5726.77-0.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.310.0844.4449.60-0.03-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0844.4444.49-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0855.5657.230.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0857.1456.000.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.280.0840.0044.19-0.06-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0822.2242.30-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0871.4356.890.000.01
HofstraCAA0.280.0877.7877.550.150.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0022.93-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.280.0818.1827.73-0.18-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0842.8652.83-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0880.0063.530.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.280.080.0013.85-0.28-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0866.6754.790.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0888.8984.020.000.05
RutgersB100.000.0860.0035.390.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.280.0833.3338.27-0.09-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.380.000.03
UtahP120.000.0677.7880.520.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.71-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0620.0026.45-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3347.31-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0066.870.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0677.7869.570.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.200.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0666.6773.810.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.24-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.250.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0630.0028.28-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0633.3341.99-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0611.1143.47-0.22-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5049.62-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0616.6733.31-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0050.98-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0625.0027.78-0.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.0657.1447.350.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.20-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0039.09-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0633.3359.83-0.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0034.21-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0675.0065.380.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.060.0014.53-0.28-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3339.81-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0013.10-0.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.0633.3343.17-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.280.0620.0037.42-0.17-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0666.6758.510.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0054.040.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0650.0030.140.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6767.890.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0528.5722.66-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8638.51-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0571.4360.450.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0575.0049.190.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0554.5557.870.000.01
ArizonaP120.280.05100.0080.930.280.03
ButlerBE0.400.0580.0072.430.240.02
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0056.480.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0583.3363.180.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0520.0020.57-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.280.0566.6759.740.090.01
High PointBSth0.000.0562.5055.430.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6742.930.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0033.140.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0590.9154.340.000.00
PittsburghACC0.280.0562.5053.840.070.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0550.0032.740.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0064.650.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0571.4361.160.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0580.0069.650.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0590.9188.300.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.400.0320.0033.83-0.24-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0015.96-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0019.38-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.83-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.310.0325.0033.31-0.15-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0033.87-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.280.0333.3342.09-0.09-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0077.640.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3340.42-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5037.27-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0020.84-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6753.260.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6743.24-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.310.0344.4456.62-0.030.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.0337.5037.71-0.07-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4444.67-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.98-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.0336.3647.60-0.08-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0322.2236.43-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.0325.0047.42-0.14-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1129.36-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.90-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.0337.5064.38-0.080.01
VirginiaACC0.280.03100.0086.080.280.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.930.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3332.44-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0366.6772.470.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.220.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.440.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.09-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.02-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0355.5639.850.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.280.0387.5064.670.210.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0017.65-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
UCLAP120.280.0372.7357.470.130.00
VCUA100.400.0370.0071.110.160.01
Washington St.P120.280.0340.0028.86-0.06-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3351.71-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0380.0071.140.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.65-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.520.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3366.520.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0344.4433.13-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.27-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.280.0333.3347.11-0.09-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.280.03100.0085.390.280.02
Miami FLACC0.280.0390.0075.840.220.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0021.16-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5051.76-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.280.0370.0071.650.110.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.51-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0345.4551.71-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6729.59-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.280.0322.2238.58-0.15-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0037.860.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.280.0357.1456.250.040.00
YaleIvy0.280.0370.0064.560.110.01