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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:244.5
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:234
Current Record:7-15
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:24.88%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15201.94.09%
14-16219.219.36%
13-17238.033.55%
12-18257.526.87%
11-19274.212.74%
10-20287.42.99%
9-21297.40.37%
8-22308.00.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Baylor (6.8)B12A77-57L0%0.0
11-15Eastern Michigan (246.9)MACH66-49W100%0.0
11-18Michigan St. (8.2)B10A76-41L0%0.0
11-20Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)HorzA73-38L0%0.0
11-26IUPUI (245.2)SumA74-55L0%0.0
11-29Ball St. (222.5)MACA64-53L0%0.0
12-3Denver (91.3)SBA62-46L0%0.0
12-15Northwestern (66.2)B10A81-51L0%0.0
12-19Colorado St. (33.3)MWCA85-61L0%0.0
12-22Colorado (75.2)P12A56-51L0%0.0
12-27St. Louis (32.0)A10A71-39L0%0.0
12-30Arkansas (65.9)SECA77-49L0%0.0
1-3Alcorn St. (333.4)SWACH87-52W100%0.0
1-5Southern (294.1)SWACH73-39W100%0.0
1-7Prairie View A&M (281.7)SWACH84-49W100%0.0
1-14Grambling (341.3)SWACA57-61W100%0.0
1-16Jackson St. (308.4)SWACA54-51L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)SWACH69-55W100%0.0
1-23Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH69-77L0%0.0
1-28Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACA61-73W100%0.0
1-30Alabama St. (301.5)SWACA66-59L0%0.0
2-4Prairie View A&M (281.7)SWACA73-67L0%0.0
2-11Grambling (341.3)SWACH0-097%19.8
2-13Jackson St. (308.4)SWACH0-083%10.3
2-18Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACA0-027%-6.8
2-20Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)SWACA0-064%4.0
2-25Alabama St. (301.5)SWACH0-079%8.9
2-27Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACH0-085%11.1
3-1Alcorn St. (333.4)SWACA0-073%6.8
3-3Southern (294.1)SWACA0-057%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC26.3126.4137.1848.40-6.75-0.84
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.954.3547.6256.12-0.140.53
Jackson St.SWAC2.904.3215.0023.07-2.03-2.33
Alabama St.SWAC2.894.3126.3235.52-1.37-1.25
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.054.3133.3340.08-1.68-0.86
GramblingSWAC2.894.3115.7916.81-1.98-2.86
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.864.3018.1824.85-1.82-2.16
SouthernSWAC2.844.2947.3748.02-0.15-0.17
Alcorn St.SWAC2.834.2817.6523.83-1.83-2.24
Alabama A&MSWAC2.824.2718.7528.79-1.77-1.81
BaylorB122.491.8190.4883.292.021.21
Eastern MichiganMAC2.431.7842.8639.71-0.35-0.37
IUPUISum2.491.7831.8233.20-0.90-0.60
ArkansasSEC2.381.7868.1863.990.870.50
Ball St.MAC2.421.7852.6355.840.130.21
NorthwesternB102.431.7860.0053.600.490.13
Michigan St.B102.431.7575.0071.981.210.77
St. LouisA102.331.7376.1976.881.220.93
Colorado St.MWC2.371.7365.0059.350.710.32
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz2.381.7254.5556.220.220.21
ColoradoP122.331.7065.0061.260.700.38
DenverSB2.331.7069.5771.240.910.72
MichiganB100.270.2672.7366.810.120.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.220.2034.7838.42-0.07-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.190.1961.9058.590.040.03
Texas A&MB120.220.1852.3846.150.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.160.1750.0050.010.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.210.1740.9142.96-0.04-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.210.1747.3742.16-0.01-0.03
Iowa St.B120.170.1773.9168.430.080.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.300.1743.4844.25-0.04-0.02
MississippiSEC0.160.1763.6456.710.040.02
Ohio St.B100.110.1786.9685.460.080.12
WisconsinB100.210.1775.0073.970.100.08
South AlabamaSB0.180.1652.3852.870.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.170.1556.5253.100.020.01
NebraskaB100.170.1552.3846.680.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.160.1575.0074.610.080.07
OaklandSum0.210.1448.0050.21-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.145.267.30-0.14-0.12
Texas El PasoCUSA0.160.1443.4843.31-0.02-0.02
Florida InternationalSB0.110.1433.3337.16-0.04-0.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.210.1459.0957.280.040.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.160.1438.1037.86-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.110.1482.6177.630.070.08
PurdueB100.160.1465.2260.580.050.03
DePaulBE0.150.1450.0042.830.00-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.160.1285.7182.180.120.08
Kent St.MAC0.060.1271.4369.050.030.05
AlabamaSEC0.120.1268.1869.100.040.05
OregonP120.170.1269.5764.530.070.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1247.0650.75-0.010.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.110.1257.1449.540.02-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1230.0031.54-0.06-0.04
WyomingMWC0.160.1276.1970.730.080.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1247.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1228.5734.20-0.05-0.04
Texas TechB120.110.1231.8225.98-0.04-0.06
ToledoMAC0.110.1238.1040.81-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.1141.6740.61-0.02-0.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.150.1190.9187.740.130.09
CincinnatiBE0.110.1169.5765.470.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1169.5768.900.040.04
AkronMAC0.160.1168.1867.910.060.04
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1180.7780.750.060.07
OklahomaB120.150.1159.0954.700.030.01
MinnesotaB100.110.1169.5761.310.040.03
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1145.4540.70-0.01-0.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1156.5248.810.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.120.0939.1342.12-0.03-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.110.0965.2265.170.030.03
ArizonaP120.110.0966.6768.550.040.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0919.0522.37-0.07-0.05
StanfordP120.110.0969.5768.290.040.03
Washington St.P120.110.0950.0048.170.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.100.0942.8641.13-0.01-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.0981.8281.030.070.05
Brigham YoungWCC0.170.0975.0076.000.080.05
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0985.7178.050.080.05
ButlerHorz0.160.0950.0050.800.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.110.0947.6244.63-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.0954.5557.690.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0927.7829.58-0.05-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0937.5038.33-0.04-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.150.0965.2263.610.050.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0947.6248.82-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.0930.0030.06-0.04-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.150.0934.7835.20-0.05-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.110.0960.8759.050.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.0935.0039.38-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.110.0872.7364.430.050.02
IndianaB100.050.0875.0075.780.030.04
IowaB100.050.0854.1749.440.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.110.0886.9683.160.080.06
Penn St.B100.050.0841.6738.67-0.01-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0840.9139.56-0.01-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0878.2672.340.060.04
UABCUSA0.070.0740.9139.82-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.43-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
Longwoodind0.110.0630.0027.84-0.05-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0659.0959.720.010.01
NevadaWAC0.110.0680.9576.420.070.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0682.6181.440.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0638.8943.93-0.03-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.0054.480.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6463.160.010.02
UtahP120.050.0618.1815.01-0.03-0.04
WoffordSC0.110.0659.0957.930.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0656.5250.270.010.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0647.6246.46-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0662.5061.500.030.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0634.7832.06-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.110.0669.5766.540.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.0668.4266.450.040.02
DukeACC0.110.0686.3683.090.080.04
Miami OHMAC0.110.0630.0034.15-0.04-0.02
OhioMAC0.060.0681.8277.200.040.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0681.8280.430.030.03
DaytonA100.100.0660.8760.960.020.01
DuquesneA100.050.0659.0956.350.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.100.0635.0035.31-0.03-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0654.1754.750.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.068.708.99-0.04-0.05
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0619.0521.29-0.03-0.03
MemphisCUSA0.050.0669.5771.510.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0661.9063.520.010.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0645.8346.68-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0626.3228.83-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0673.9175.490.020.03
Southern UtahSum0.050.0645.4544.30-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0652.6348.410.01-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.100.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
XavierA100.050.0665.2263.740.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0650.0051.530.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
CharlotteA100.100.0650.0049.450.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0650.0056.760.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.0645.4545.70-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.050.0678.2678.390.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0672.7368.280.020.02
MissouriB120.050.0691.3087.180.040.04
Notre DameBE0.050.0665.2262.650.020.01
TexasB120.050.0660.8761.370.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0347.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.060.034.769.95-0.05-0.02
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0339.1344.52-0.01-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0356.5254.220.010.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
MarylandACC0.050.0359.0950.820.010.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0345.4546.99-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0326.3229.71-0.03-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.03-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.034.359.66-0.05-0.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.420.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0354.5554.300.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.000.0336.3639.72-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0340.9134.50-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0334.7832.08-0.02-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0380.9577.380.030.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
La SalleA100.000.0370.8368.820.000.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0378.2672.660.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.020.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.030.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0325.0023.75-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0342.8645.80-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0320.8320.60-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0362.5062.490.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
TempleA100.050.0377.2775.060.030.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.039.5211.44-0.04-0.02
TroySB0.050.0328.5730.17-0.02-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0387.5085.410.040.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0352.1750.090.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.710.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.030.01
RadfordBSth0.050.038.7013.10-0.04-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0328.5726.30-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0366.6768.050.020.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.010.050.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0376.1975.940.030.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.61-0.03-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0356.5255.200.010.00
ConnecticutBE0.050.0368.1863.990.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0395.8392.570.050.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0352.3857.860.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0354.5556.090.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.870.020.01