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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:226.8
Current RPI:254
Expected SOS:271
Current SOS:107
Current Record:4-16
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:227
Expected OOC SOS:2



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16188.16.56%
14-17205.021.87%
13-18221.329.30%
12-19237.424.08%
11-20254.612.39%
10-21272.94.56%
9-22290.61.09%
8-23307.70.13%
7-24323.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Gonzaga (33.9)WCCA97-69L0%0.0
11-12Washington St. (171.8)P12A86-84L0%0.0
11-16Ohio St. (20.7)B10A82-64L0%0.0
11-18Syracuse (45.2)ACCA80-67L0%0.0
11-21Kansas (6.0)B12A114-71L0%0.0
11-24Clemson (14.3)ACCA84-77L0%0.0
11-30Oakland (138.7)HorzA97-87L0%0.0
12-2Toledo (71.5)MACA71-69L0%0.0
12-11Oregon (68.5)P12A74-68L0%0.0
12-14Baylor (68.8)B12A99-68L0%0.0
12-16Wyoming (101.9)MWCA72-66L0%0.0
12-18TCU (23.4)B12A91-72L0%0.0
12-23BYU (63.2)WCCA73-52L0%0.0
1-1Southern (304.4)SWACH78-66W100%0.0
1-3Alcorn St. (341.5)SWACH85-70W100%0.0
1-6Prairie View A&M (266.2)SWACH100-94W100%0.0
1-13Jackson St. (293.7)SWACA85-80L0%0.0
1-15Grambling St. (287.3)SWACA79-78L0%0.0
1-20Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH91-77W100%0.0
1-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (293.5)SWACH72-74L0%0.0
1-27Alabama A&M (348.5)SWACA0-086%11.8
1-29Alabama St. (343.4)SWACA0-080%9.5
2-3Prairie View A&M (266.2)SWACA0-055%1.4
2-10Jackson St. (293.7)SWACH0-086%11.8
2-12Grambling St. (287.3)SWACH0-083%10.7
2-17Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACA0-086%11.9
2-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (293.5)SWACA0-069%5.6
2-24Alabama A&M (348.5)SWACH0-095%18.2
2-26Alabama St. (343.4)SWACH0-092%15.9
3-1Southern (304.4)SWACA0-062%3.5
3-3Alcorn St. (341.5)SWACA0-074%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC26.2926.3118.7549.11-16.43-0.47
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.824.120.0010.48-2.82-3.25
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.964.1226.3241.11-1.40-0.73
Alabama St.SWAC0.464.1115.7923.28-0.31-2.20
Jackson St.SWAC2.844.1135.2942.33-0.83-0.63
SouthernSWAC2.894.1133.3342.45-0.96-0.62
Alcorn St.SWAC2.894.1018.7528.48-1.80-1.77
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.764.0930.0038.20-1.11-0.97
Alabama A&MSWAC0.404.0910.0017.26-0.32-2.68
Grambling St.SWAC2.774.0933.3343.01-0.92-0.57
BaylorB122.771.8355.5651.670.310.06
KansasB122.821.8083.3379.091.881.05
OregonP122.561.7763.1662.600.670.45
ToledoMAC2.761.7564.7166.560.810.58
SyracuseACC2.691.7266.6759.990.900.34
TCUB122.631.7273.6866.761.250.58
BYUWCC2.561.7280.0075.441.540.87
OaklandHorz2.701.6960.0063.990.540.47
GonzagaWCC2.561.6980.0082.701.531.11
Ohio St.B102.631.6780.9576.101.630.87
ClemsonACC2.561.6683.3372.261.700.74
Washington St.P122.501.6644.4439.41-0.28-0.35
WyomingMWC2.501.6158.8255.300.440.17
Iowa St.B120.270.2257.8946.220.04-0.02
IowaB100.190.2247.6243.94-0.01-0.03
UtahP120.310.2163.1659.720.080.04
Oklahoma St.B120.130.2168.4254.040.050.02
Kansas St.B120.260.1875.0065.320.130.06
OhioMAC0.200.1847.0648.43-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.190.1877.7868.030.100.07
TexasB120.250.1865.0058.600.080.03
Oregon St.P120.190.1857.8950.860.030.00
PacificWCC0.250.1845.0044.49-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.130.1678.9571.750.080.07
Utah St.MWC0.250.1645.0045.47-0.03-0.01
WashingtonP120.190.1670.0061.460.080.04
West VirginiaB120.190.1680.0076.040.120.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.240.1533.3332.96-0.08-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.130.1461.1158.710.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.1426.6729.12-0.09-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.070.1352.6343.040.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.1346.6747.00-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.190.1345.0048.57-0.02-0.00
StanfordP120.190.1355.0050.330.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1389.4785.550.100.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1390.4888.970.150.10
SamfordSC0.130.1327.7832.67-0.06-0.05
UNLVMWC0.130.1373.6865.250.060.04
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1366.6763.450.040.04
TulaneAmer0.140.1263.1657.870.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.1145.0049.28-0.02-0.00
CreightonBE0.200.1175.0070.720.100.05
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1162.5058.710.030.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.1152.6355.280.000.01
DukeACC0.070.1189.4785.240.050.08
MarylandB100.190.1166.6763.130.060.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.1125.0028.02-0.10-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.200.1166.6768.750.070.04
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1158.8262.830.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1172.2272.970.060.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1126.3231.48-0.06-0.04
AkronMAC0.130.1147.0644.92-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1170.0071.220.050.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1176.1972.570.060.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1152.9455.030.010.01
Arizona St.P120.130.1078.9576.160.070.05
IUPUIHorz0.130.1027.7829.82-0.06-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.060.1066.6765.550.020.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1027.7829.10-0.05-0.04
MichiganB100.060.1076.1970.800.030.04
PepperdineWCC0.120.1010.5318.34-0.09-0.07
PortlandWCC0.120.1027.7827.26-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.060.1063.1657.530.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1050.0048.730.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.060.1061.1164.150.010.03
HawaiiBW0.120.1068.7564.010.050.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0936.8435.58-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.140.0941.1847.61-0.02-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.140.0868.4263.610.050.02
IllinoisB100.070.0845.0043.62-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.0850.0052.500.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0822.2228.57-0.04-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0831.5836.43-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.130.0857.8954.500.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.130.0878.9576.980.080.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0836.8431.11-0.02-0.03
ColoradoP120.130.0860.0053.720.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.130.0845.0041.31-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.130.0873.6871.600.060.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0873.6869.660.030.03
NevadaMWC0.130.0885.7182.120.090.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0865.0056.350.040.01
South DakotaSum0.130.0873.6872.400.060.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0835.2940.46-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.130.0852.9452.250.010.00
ArizonaP120.060.0880.0078.940.040.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0865.0054.600.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.0820.0023.33-0.08-0.04
DetroitHorz0.130.0821.0525.99-0.07-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.130.0844.4444.91-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0840.0030.88-0.01-0.03
UCLAP120.130.0865.0062.050.040.02
USCP120.130.0871.4368.300.050.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0894.7486.110.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.070.0842.1140.46-0.01-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0838.8935.38-0.01-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.130.0868.4269.260.050.03
AlabamaSEC0.060.0868.4259.020.020.01
DePaulBE0.060.0842.1134.30-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0868.4254.080.020.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0863.6457.610.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0857.1453.040.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0868.4263.970.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0837.5031.78-0.01-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.120.0829.4134.78-0.05-0.02
SMUAmer0.120.0870.0070.610.050.03
Weber St.BSky0.120.0856.2557.430.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.190.020.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0644.4450.08-0.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.62-0.05-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0615.0020.28-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.070.0644.4454.87-0.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0670.0068.290.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0647.0654.68-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0655.0052.480.010.00
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.830.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0542.1132.46-0.01-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0570.0068.210.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0550.0054.180.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0583.3381.420.090.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0572.2258.880.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0544.4446.66-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0541.1839.140.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0550.0051.640.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0511.7612.800.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0561.1151.910.030.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0545.0045.03-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0560.0059.710.010.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0550.0059.430.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.140.0572.2274.940.060.03
CornellIvy0.140.0533.3333.23-0.05-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.130.0543.7540.91-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0578.9569.820.040.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0577.7870.410.040.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0547.0641.38-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.130.0563.1661.000.030.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0570.0060.400.030.01
WisconsinB100.120.0550.0046.270.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0544.4446.010.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.130.0552.6347.380.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.060.0570.0058.090.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0531.5832.71-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0525.0027.93-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0578.9573.000.040.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0542.1145.98-0.01-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0560.0052.880.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0578.9574.200.040.03
Michigan St.B100.120.0585.7183.760.080.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0545.0047.06-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.120.0563.6459.480.030.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0583.3384.250.040.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0566.6773.220.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0555.0046.650.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0541.1838.470.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0555.0053.330.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0570.5969.630.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.120.0564.7160.010.040.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0521.0523.52-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0561.9055.820.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0561.9063.170.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0557.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.060.0538.8944.43-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.740.00-0.00
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.47-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.05-0.02-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.500.010.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0364.7166.850.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5657.250.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.130.010.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.690.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.11-0.01-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.037.6923.24-0.06-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0358.8262.450.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.610.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.380.040.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.060.050.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0331.5836.23-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0371.4374.670.030.01
ButlerBE0.060.0366.6763.070.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.030.003.06-0.06-0.02
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.030.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.039.5217.86-0.05-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0352.6351.680.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0310.5326.29-0.05-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.037.6920.08-0.05-0.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0360.0064.130.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0373.6868.040.030.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.24-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0363.1663.210.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0355.0050.370.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0330.0032.54-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0358.8263.210.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0352.9460.230.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.390.000.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0357.8958.880.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0357.1460.410.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0357.8953.220.010.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0318.7518.37-0.04-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0363.1665.980.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0360.0062.010.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0366.6766.030.020.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0394.7490.310.050.02