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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:240.5
Current RPI:316
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:196
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1199.70.03%
19-12124.40.10%
18-13142.00.56%
17-14157.62.40%
16-15176.85.59%
15-16195.411.68%
14-17215.716.58%
13-18237.218.59%
12-19257.417.30%
11-20276.113.33%
10-21293.98.02%
9-22309.53.81%
8-23321.71.41%
7-24329.70.43%
6-25336.20.13%
5-26344.00.02%
4-27346.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Washington (66.6)BSkyA86-62L0%0.0
11-17Indiana (91.7)B10A83-64L0%0.0
11-20Tennessee (138.8)SECA70-58L0%0.0
11-22Norfolk St. (232.2)MEACA76-66L0%0.0
11-26SMU (44.9)AmerA72-59L0%0.0
11-28Lamar (282.9)SlndH0-071%6.6
12-1Baylor (14.4)B12A0-02%-25.5
12-12Florida (52.3)SECA0-04%-21.5
12-15Gonzaga (16.4)WCCA0-01%-28.6
12-20Michigan St. (31.1)B10A0-02%-25.7
12-23Auburn (179.7)SECA0-021%-9.6
12-28Kansas St. (106.3)B12A0-09%-16.5
12-30New Mexico St. (79.3)WACA0-07%-17.5
1-3Alcorn St. (312.3)SWACA0-054%1.3
1-5Southern (302.0)SWACA0-050%0.1
1-10Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACA0-044%-1.7
1-17Grambling St. (342.8)SWACH0-088%14.4
1-19Jackson St. (285.7)SWACH0-068%5.6
1-24Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACA0-078%9.1
1-26Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.3)SWACA0-058%2.4
1-31Alabama St. (222.7)SWACH0-050%0.1
2-2Alabama A&M (333.4)SWACH0-080%9.9
2-7Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACH0-068%5.5
2-14Grambling St. (342.8)SWACA0-073%7.2
2-16Jackson St. (285.7)SWACA0-045%-1.6
2-21Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACH0-091%16.3
2-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.3)SWACH0-079%9.6
2-28Alabama St. (222.7)SWACA0-028%-7.1
3-2Alabama A&M (333.4)SWACA0-059%2.7
3-5Alcorn St. (312.3)SWACH0-076%8.5
3-7Southern (302.0)SWACH0-073%7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC30.7526.400.0047.90-30.75-1.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.1916.6732.02-0.00-1.51
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.004.190.0015.45-1.00-2.89
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.180.0040.29-0.00-0.81
SouthernSWAC0.004.180.0035.25-0.00-1.23
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.1620.0043.35-0.00-0.55
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.150.0033.83-0.00-1.34
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.140.0032.29-0.00-1.47
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.140.0021.11-0.00-2.39
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.140.0063.23-0.001.10
BaylorB120.001.84100.0074.300.000.89
IndianaB1011.831.8175.0054.935.920.18
SMUAmer12.001.7340.0064.36-2.400.50
Michigan St.B100.001.7280.0073.490.000.81
Kansas St.B120.001.7050.0044.610.00-0.18
TennesseeSEC10.001.6950.0044.500.00-0.19
AuburnSEC0.001.6760.0036.290.00-0.46
FloridaSEC0.001.6760.0061.240.000.37
Eastern WashingtonBSky11.831.6775.0073.895.920.80
LamarSlnd1.831.6725.0036.56-0.92-0.45
GonzagaWCC0.831.64100.0088.230.831.25
New Mexico St.WAC0.001.6450.0070.140.000.66
Norfolk St.MEAC10.001.640.0045.92-10.00-0.13
TCUB120.000.28100.0058.380.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.2575.0061.130.000.06
Texas TechB120.000.2475.0045.180.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.830.20100.0079.690.830.12
VanderbiltSEC1.250.19100.0053.731.250.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1960.0056.890.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1966.6739.850.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1975.0068.660.000.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1733.3360.46-0.000.04
PurdueB100.000.1783.3368.400.000.06
TexasB120.000.17100.0079.050.000.10
MississippiSEC0.000.1775.0053.040.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.17100.0060.400.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.1760.0056.260.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.17100.0045.140.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1666.6760.700.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1550.0032.470.00-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1550.0065.020.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1525.0068.20-0.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1450.0042.750.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1450.0052.250.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1483.3338.760.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.130.0067.79-0.000.05
KansasB120.000.1375.0062.620.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1325.0031.20-0.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1233.3367.57-0.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1216.6745.35-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.12100.0069.210.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1220.0050.32-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.1133.3345.53-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.1166.6765.220.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.11100.0069.490.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC1.670.1125.0037.88-0.83-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.1166.6752.280.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1150.0055.020.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.1175.0039.180.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1171.4356.020.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1180.0072.400.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1180.0058.550.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0089.470.000.09
MissouriSEC0.000.1140.0036.39-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.1175.0066.060.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1120.0038.45-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.11100.0071.310.000.05
OklahomaB120.000.1180.0070.540.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1175.0055.470.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.11100.0068.860.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.110.0016.54-0.00-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3351.25-0.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0057.930.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0047.66-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0983.3369.110.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0925.0028.63-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.0966.6748.060.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0980.0070.550.000.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0950.0045.170.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0833.3352.29-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0866.6750.170.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0850.0059.430.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0825.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC1.000.0875.0050.750.500.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0071.260.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0875.0069.780.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0055.660.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0840.0046.34-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.08100.0067.700.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0820.0042.43-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0860.0068.830.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.08100.0064.840.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0840.0033.19-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0850.0042.050.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0074.590.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0850.0024.450.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.080.0025.17-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0825.0052.42-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0820.0037.96-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0069.010.000.02
UtahP120.000.0675.0073.700.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.73-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0030.50-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.51-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0059.990.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0675.0071.300.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0675.0069.240.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0675.0044.850.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0023.72-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0052.770.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0039.990.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0625.0043.27-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0035.980.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3329.78-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0620.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0633.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0023.57-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0633.3351.33-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0020.51-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0057.180.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0052.78-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0035.74-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.02-0.00-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0051.90-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0650.0067.630.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.96-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0062.000.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.430.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3332.18-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6754.980.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0660.0050.240.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0050.480.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6741.780.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0025.280.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.100.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.0580.0071.410.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.05100.0076.220.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0575.0052.330.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0583.3348.340.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.05100.0087.590.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0047.680.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0580.0063.370.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0066.680.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.05100.0055.370.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0525.0023.91-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0575.0056.960.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0560.0057.910.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0566.6751.730.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0052.070.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0580.0071.340.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0575.0056.110.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0036.05-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.17-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0050.53-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.24-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat1.250.0325.0053.47-0.620.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.20-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6758.150.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.880.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0054.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0028.59-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun1.000.0325.0039.34-0.50-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0037.69-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0052.73-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.530.00-0.01
VCUA101.670.0380.0073.391.000.01
VirginiaACC1.250.03100.0073.331.250.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3334.34-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0069.610.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.320.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0325.0035.86-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.530.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.46-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0320.0030.56-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0038.51-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0340.0043.47-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0036.580.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.25-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3366.19-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0333.3364.43-0.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0366.6758.390.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0325.0022.65-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.180.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0333.3363.17-0.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.510.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0038.97-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0325.0043.61-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.880.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.53-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0366.6751.440.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0055.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.730.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.930.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0031.400.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0054.55-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.390.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0050.720.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.00-0.00-0.01