Texas Southern

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	184.0
Current RPI:	184
Expected SOS:	272
Current SOS:	272
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	16-2
Expected Conf Record:	16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-2
Current OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC RPI:	257
Expected OOC SOS:	11

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	184.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	81-63	L	0%
11-13	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	79-49	L	0%
11-16	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	74-71	W	100%
11-18	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	A	69-41	L	0%
11-20	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	69-71	L	0%
11-24	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	79-52	L	0%
11-27	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	85-80	L	0%
12-3	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	74-62	L	0%
12-8	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	78-75	L	0%
12-16	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	86-93	L	0%
12-18	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	78-69	L	0%
12-22	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	45-48	L	0%
12-27	Akron (43.0)	MAC	A	83-68	L	0%
1-2	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	A	63-57	L	0%
1-4	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	A	48-57	W	100%
1-6	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	A	60-65	W	100%
1-12	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	84-57	W	100%
1-14	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	95-50	W	100%
1-19	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	A	66-63	L	0%
1-21	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	A	48-75	W	100%
1-26	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	H	89-56	W	100%
1-28	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	97-65	W	100%
2-2	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	84-48	W	100%
2-9	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	A	54-61	W	100%
2-11	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	A	52-80	W	100%
2-16	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	75-69	W	100%
2-18	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	73-57	W	100%
2-23	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	A	62-64	W	100%
2-25	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	A	50-70	W	100%
2-28	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	79-66	W	100%
3-2	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	78-59	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Southern	SWAC	26.32	26.32	59.40	59.40	4.95	4.95
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.32	4.32	41.38	41.38	-0.74	-0.74
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.21	4.21	33.33	33.33	-1.40	-1.40
Southern	SWAC	4.20	4.20	70.37	70.37	1.71	1.71
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.20	4.20	40.74	40.74	-0.78	-0.78
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.18	4.18	31.03	31.03	-1.59	-1.59
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.18	4.18	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Grambling	SWAC	4.17	4.17	0.00	0.00	-4.17	-4.17
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.16	4.16	30.00	30.00	-1.66	-1.66
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.12	4.12	19.23	19.23	-2.53	-2.53
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.84	1.84	38.71	38.71	-0.42	-0.42
Middle Tennessee	SB	1.84	1.84	84.38	84.38	1.27	1.27
Houston	CUSA	1.80	1.80	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
Michigan St.	B10	1.77	1.77	74.19	74.19	0.86	0.86
Boise St.	MWC	1.77	1.77	64.29	64.29	0.51	0.51
San Diego St.	MWC	1.75	1.75	65.52	65.52	0.54	0.54
Florida International	SB	1.74	1.74	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Northwestern	B10	1.70	1.70	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Oakland	Sum	1.69	1.69	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Akron	MAC	1.69	1.69	80.00	80.00	1.01	1.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.61	1.61	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
Colorado	P12	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Kansas St.	B12	1.61	1.61	78.12	78.12	0.91	0.91
Texas Christian	B12	0.27	0.27	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Troy	SB	0.25	0.25	36.36	36.36	-0.07	-0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.24	0.24	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.23	0.23	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Tech	B12	0.21	0.21	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.21	0.21	14.81	14.81	-0.14	-0.14
Wyoming	MWC	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.14	0.14	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Fresno St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
California	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00