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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:190.0
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:323
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:17-3
Expected Conf Record:17-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-3
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:318
Expected OOC SOS:176



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14190.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13New Mexico (141.0)MWCA86-57L0%0.0
11-14Creighton (100.0)BEA93-70L0%0.0
11-19Clemson (131.0)ACCA76-56L0%0.0
11-23Howard (328.0)MEACN87-81L0%0.0
11-25UTSA (347.0)CUSAN91-80W100%0.0
11-28Washington St. (212.0)P12A77-65L0%0.0
12-2Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA86-73L0%0.0
12-5Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndA66-62L0%0.0
12-12Central Michigan (156.0)MACA79-71L0%0.0
12-16Iona (77.0)MAACA83-73L0%0.0
12-27Syracuse (72.0)ACCA80-67L0%0.0
12-29Baylor (25.0)B12A72-59L0%0.0
1-2Southern (186.0)SWACH88-66W100%0.0
1-4Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH74-58W100%0.0
1-9Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH64-38W100%0.0
1-16Jackson St. (221.0)SWACA65-71W100%0.0
1-18Grambling St. (350.0)SWACA54-69W100%0.0
1-23Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH75-60W100%0.0
1-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH78-49W100%0.0
1-30Alabama St. (265.0)SWACA72-75W100%0.0
2-1Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACA68-71W100%0.0
2-6Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACA59-55L0%0.0
2-13Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH76-60W100%0.0
2-15Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH79-72W100%0.0
2-20Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACA67-98W100%0.0
2-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACA52-54W100%0.0
2-27Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH77-54W100%0.0
2-29Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH96-86W100%0.0
3-3Southern (186.0)SWACA84-79L0%0.0
3-5Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACA66-76W100%0.0
3-9Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACN77-69W100%0.0
3-11Southern (186.0)SWACH73-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC26.5026.5064.1864.187.517.51
SouthernSWAC5.705.7060.7160.711.221.22
Alabama A&MSWAC5.605.6040.0040.00-1.12-1.12
Jackson St.SWAC4.254.2556.6756.670.570.57
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.234.2324.2424.24-2.18-2.18
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.154.1525.8125.81-2.01-2.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.134.1320.6920.69-2.42-2.42
Alabama St.SWAC4.124.1244.4444.44-0.46-0.46
Alcorn St.SWAC4.094.0950.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC4.094.0915.3815.38-2.83-2.83
BaylorB121.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
Mississippi St.SEC1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
ClemsonACC1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
UTSACUSA1.611.6113.7913.79-1.17-1.17
HowardMEAC1.591.5931.0331.03-0.60-0.60
Central MichiganMAC1.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
CreightonBE1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
New MexicoMWC1.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
SyracuseACC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.591.5981.4881.481.001.00
Washington St.P121.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
IonaMAAC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.2870.0070.000.110.11
TulaneAmer0.260.2635.2935.29-0.08-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.220.2234.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.210.2157.5857.580.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.2079.3179.310.120.12
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
NebraskaB100.170.1747.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.10-0.10
MarquetteBE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MemphisAmer0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
OhioMAC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Texas TechB120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
HawaiiBW0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Arizona St.P120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
WyomingMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
OregonP120.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UNLVMWC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
SienaMAAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0229.1729.17-0.01-0.01