Texas Southern

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	244.5
Current RPI:	256
Expected SOS:	305
Current SOS:	234
Current Record:	7-15
Expected Record:	13-17
Current Conf Record:	6-4
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	24.88%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-6
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	247
Expected OOC SOS:	12

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-15	201.9	4.09%
14-16	219.2	19.36%
13-17	238.0	33.55%
12-18	257.5	26.87%
11-19	274.2	12.74%
10-20	287.4	2.99%
9-21	297.4	0.37%
8-22	308.0	0.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Baylor (6.8)	B12	A	77-57	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	H	66-49	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	A	76-41	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	A	73-38	L	0%	0.0
11-26	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	A	74-55	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	A	64-53	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	62-46	L	0%	0.0
12-15	Northwestern (66.2)	B10	A	81-51	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	85-61	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Colorado (75.2)	P12	A	56-51	L	0%	0.0
12-27	St. Louis (32.0)	A10	A	71-39	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Arkansas (65.9)	SEC	A	77-49	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	87-52	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	73-39	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	84-49	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	A	57-61	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	A	54-51	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	H	69-55	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	H	69-77	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	A	61-73	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	A	66-59	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	A	73-67	L	0%	0.0
2-11	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	0-0		97%	19.8
2-13	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	0-0		83%	10.3
2-18	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	A	0-0		27%	-6.8
2-20	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	A	0-0		64%	4.0
2-25	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	H	0-0		79%	8.9
2-27	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	0-0		85%	11.1
3-1	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	A	0-0		73%	6.8
3-3	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	A	0-0		57%	1.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Southern	SWAC	26.31	26.41	37.18	48.40	-6.75	-0.84
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	2.95	4.35	47.62	56.12	-0.14	0.53
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.90	4.32	15.00	23.07	-2.03	-2.33
Alabama St.	SWAC	2.89	4.31	26.32	35.52	-1.37	-1.25
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	5.05	4.31	33.33	40.08	-1.68	-0.86
Grambling	SWAC	2.89	4.31	15.79	16.81	-1.98	-2.86
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	2.86	4.30	18.18	24.85	-1.82	-2.16
Southern	SWAC	2.84	4.29	47.37	48.02	-0.15	-0.17
Alcorn St.	SWAC	2.83	4.28	17.65	23.83	-1.83	-2.24
Alabama A&M	SWAC	2.82	4.27	18.75	28.79	-1.77	-1.81
Baylor	B12	2.49	1.81	90.48	83.29	2.02	1.21
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.43	1.78	42.86	39.71	-0.35	-0.37
IUPUI	Sum	2.49	1.78	31.82	33.20	-0.90	-0.60
Arkansas	SEC	2.38	1.78	68.18	63.99	0.87	0.50
Ball St.	MAC	2.42	1.78	52.63	55.84	0.13	0.21
Northwestern	B10	2.43	1.78	60.00	53.60	0.49	0.13
Michigan St.	B10	2.43	1.75	75.00	71.98	1.21	0.77
St. Louis	A10	2.33	1.73	76.19	76.88	1.22	0.93
Colorado St.	MWC	2.37	1.73	65.00	59.35	0.71	0.32
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	2.38	1.72	54.55	56.22	0.22	0.21
Colorado	P12	2.33	1.70	65.00	61.26	0.70	0.38
Denver	SB	2.33	1.70	69.57	71.24	0.91	0.72
Michigan	B10	0.27	0.26	72.73	66.81	0.12	0.09
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.22	0.20	34.78	38.42	-0.07	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.19	0.19	61.90	58.59	0.04	0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.22	0.18	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.16	0.17	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.21	0.17	40.91	42.96	-0.04	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.21	0.17	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.17	0.17	73.91	68.43	0.08	0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.30	0.17	43.48	44.25	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.17	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.17	86.96	85.46	0.08	0.12
Wisconsin	B10	0.21	0.17	75.00	73.97	0.10	0.08
South Alabama	SB	0.18	0.16	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.17	0.15	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.17	0.15	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.16	0.15	75.00	74.61	0.08	0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.21	0.14	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.16	0.14	5.26	7.30	-0.14	-0.12
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.14	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.14	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.21	0.14	59.09	57.28	0.04	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.16	0.14	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.14	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.08
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.14	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.14	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.12	85.71	82.18	0.12	0.08
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.05
Oregon	P12	0.17	0.12	69.57	64.53	0.07	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.17	0.12	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.12	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.16	0.12	30.00	31.54	-0.06	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.12	76.19	70.73	0.08	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.12	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.12	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.12	31.82	25.98	-0.04	-0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.12	38.10	40.81	-0.03	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.11	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.11	90.91	87.74	0.13	0.09
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.11	68.18	67.91	0.06	0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.11	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.15	0.11	59.09	54.70	0.03	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.15	0.11	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.11	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.09	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.09	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.09	19.05	22.37	-0.07	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.09	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.09	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.09	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.09	81.82	81.03	0.07	0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.17	0.09	75.00	76.00	0.08	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	85.71	78.05	0.08	0.05
Butler	Horz	0.16	0.09	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.09	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.09	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.09	27.78	29.58	-0.05	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.15	0.09	37.50	38.33	-0.04	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.15	0.09	65.22	63.61	0.05	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.09	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.09	30.00	30.06	-0.04	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.15	0.09	34.78	35.20	-0.05	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.09	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.09	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.08	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.08	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.08	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.08	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.08	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.08	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.08	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.07	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.11	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.04	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.04	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.08	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.10	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.11	0.06	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.00	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.00	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01