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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:120.0
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:293
Current SOS:293
Current Record:22-12
Expected Record:22-12
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:20-2
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-12120.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyA86-62L0%0.0
11-17Indiana (61.0)B10A83-64L0%0.0
11-20Tennessee (96.0)SECA70-58L0%0.0
11-22Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA76-66L0%0.0
11-26SMU (12.0)AmerA72-59L0%0.0
11-28Lamar (230.0)SlndH71-59W100%0.0
12-1Baylor (10.0)B12A75-49L0%0.0
12-12Florida (72.0)SECA75-50L0%0.0
12-15Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA94-54L0%0.0
12-20Michigan St. (23.0)B10A64-71W100%0.0
12-23Auburn (129.0)SECA61-60L0%0.0
12-28Kansas St. (100.0)B12A56-58W100%0.0
12-30New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA54-52L0%0.0
1-3Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA55-72W100%0.0
1-5Southern (223.0)SWACA58-59W100%0.0
1-10Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACA77-81W100%0.0
1-17Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH60-51W100%0.0
1-19Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH67-54W100%0.0
1-24Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA66-62L0%0.0
1-26Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA84-85W100%0.0
1-31Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH80-65W100%0.0
2-2Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH68-65W100%0.0
2-7Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH55-58L0%0.0
2-14Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA58-81W100%0.0
2-16Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA70-71W100%0.0
2-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH56-50W100%0.0
2-23Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH83-73W100%0.0
2-28Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA49-58W100%0.0
3-2Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA75-77W100%0.0
3-5Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH94-73W100%0.0
3-7Southern (223.0)SWACH88-78W100%0.0
3-11Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACN95-74W100%0.0
3-13Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACN90-77W100%0.0
3-14Southern (223.0)SWACH62-58W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC26.5326.5373.3373.3312.3812.38
SouthernSWAC5.435.4351.7251.720.190.19
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.365.3644.8344.83-0.55-0.55
Alcorn St.SWAC5.345.3418.5218.52-3.36-3.36
Alabama St.SWAC3.973.9768.0068.001.431.43
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.953.9520.0020.00-2.37-2.37
Jackson St.SWAC3.943.9436.6736.67-1.05-1.05
Grambling St.SWAC3.933.930.000.00-3.93-3.93
Alabama A&MSWAC3.933.9330.7730.77-1.51-1.51
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.893.8936.6736.67-1.04-1.04
BaylorB121.701.7070.9770.970.710.71
IndianaB101.631.6359.3859.380.310.31
SMUAmer1.571.5780.6580.650.960.96
Michigan St.B101.561.5669.7069.700.610.61
Kansas St.B121.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC1.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC1.521.5239.3939.39-0.32-0.32
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.521.5273.3373.330.710.71
LamarSlnd1.521.5244.0044.00-0.18-0.18
FloridaSEC1.521.5246.8846.88-0.09-0.09
GonzagaWCC1.491.4993.7593.751.311.31
New Mexico St.WAC1.491.4966.6766.670.500.50
Norfolk St.MEAC1.491.4956.6756.670.200.20
TCUB120.280.2854.5554.550.030.03
Iowa St.B120.240.2475.7675.760.120.12
Texas TechB120.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
HawaiiBW0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
TulaneAmer0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
KansasB120.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
TexasB120.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
MemphisAmer0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
MississippiSEC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1572.4172.410.070.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1586.6786.670.110.11
HamptonMEAC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
HoustonAmer0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
MarylandB100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
Oregon St.P120.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
OhioMAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1275.8675.860.060.06
WyomingMWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
MinnesotaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
TroySB0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
BYUWCC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.040.0452.9452.940.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01