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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:108.0
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:306
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:21-2
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-11108.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12UT Arlington (45.0)SBA89-82L0%0.0
11-13Delaware St. (332.0)MEACA61-74W100%0.0
11-16Rice (167.0)CUSAA68-71W100%0.0
11-19La Salle (133.0)A10A76-77W100%0.0
11-21James Madison (255.0)CAAA56-67W100%0.0
11-27Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA84-73L0%0.0
11-30Arizona (2.0)P12A85-63L0%0.0
12-3Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA74-70L0%0.0
12-10Louisville (7.0)ACCA102-71L0%0.0
12-13Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA96-58L0%0.0
12-17LSU (193.0)SECA88-80L0%0.0
12-18TCU (67.0)B12A96-59L0%0.0
12-21Baylor (11.0)B12A89-63L0%0.0
1-2Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA65-67W100%0.0
1-4Southern (320.0)SWACA74-82W100%0.0
1-7Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA82-87W100%0.0
1-14Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH76-55W100%0.0
1-16Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH67-44W100%0.0
1-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA63-70W100%0.0
1-23Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACA103-89L0%0.0
1-28Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH70-68W100%0.0
1-30Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH92-47W100%0.0
2-4Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH74-61W100%0.0
2-11Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA70-77W100%0.0
2-13Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA71-62L0%0.0
2-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH78-40W100%0.0
2-20Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH92-61W100%0.0
2-25Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA73-86W100%0.0
2-27Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA64-74W100%0.0
3-2Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH94-88W100%0.0
3-4Southern (320.0)SWACH82-69W100%0.0
3-7Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH87-72W100%0.0
3-10Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH62-57W100%0.0
3-11Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH53-50W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC26.5626.5677.4077.4014.5514.55
Alcorn St.SWAC5.395.3957.6957.690.830.83
Grambling St.SWAC5.345.3448.1548.15-0.20-0.20
Alabama St.SWAC5.325.3225.9325.93-2.56-2.56
SouthernSWAC4.034.0346.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.963.9620.0020.00-2.37-2.37
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.953.9537.9337.93-0.95-0.95
Jackson St.SWAC3.943.9440.7440.74-0.73-0.73
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.883.8821.4321.43-2.21-2.21
Alabama A&MSWAC3.873.877.417.41-3.30-3.30
BaylorB121.641.6476.6776.670.870.87
TCUB121.591.5953.1253.120.100.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.571.5760.0060.000.310.31
RiceCUSA1.521.5266.6766.670.510.51
Delaware St.MEAC1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
James MadisonCAA1.521.5229.0329.03-0.64-0.64
UT ArlingtonSB1.521.5273.3373.330.710.71
LouisvilleACC1.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
Southern IllinoisMVC1.491.4948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP121.471.4787.8887.881.111.11
CincinnatiAmer1.471.4784.8584.851.021.02
La SalleA101.471.4751.7251.720.050.05
LSUSEC1.471.4730.0030.00-0.59-0.59
Louisiana TechCUSA0.340.3467.7467.740.120.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.2268.9768.970.080.08
Southern MissCUSA0.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
TroySB0.200.2058.8258.820.030.03
Iowa St.B120.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
UABCUSA0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Texas St.SB0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Kansas St.B120.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Little RockSB0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Texas TechB120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
Kent St.MAC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
VirginiaACC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
CaliforniaP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
TexasB120.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
KansasB120.110.1187.5087.500.090.09
OklahomaB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1021.4321.43-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
DrexelCAA0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
WashingtonP120.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.060.06
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
ColoradoP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
USCP120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
Washington St.P120.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00