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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Texas Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:195.0
Current RPI:227
Expected SOS:320
Current SOS:322
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:9-1
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-3
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:148



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12166.611.12%
17-13181.732.61%
16-14198.332.20%
15-15215.417.25%
14-16233.85.66%
13-17252.61.08%
12-18269.80.06%
11-19286.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13New Mexico (94.2)MWCA86-57L0%0.0
11-14Creighton (89.7)BEA93-70L0%0.0
11-19Clemson (109.5)ACCA76-56L0%0.0
11-23Howard (297.7)MEACN87-81L0%0.0
11-25UTSA (341.9)CUSAN91-80W100%0.0
11-28Washington St. (183.8)P12A77-65L0%0.0
12-2Mississippi St. (177.4)SECA86-73L0%0.0
12-5Stephen F. Austin (97.2)SlndA66-62L0%0.0
12-12Central Michigan (132.2)MACA79-71L0%0.0
12-16Iona (124.0)MAACA83-73L0%0.0
12-27Syracuse (53.2)ACCA80-67L0%0.0
12-29Baylor (29.7)B12A72-59L0%0.0
1-2Southern (179.4)SWACH88-66W100%0.0
1-4Alcorn St. (281.1)SWACH74-58W100%0.0
1-9Prairie View A&M (344.1)SWACH64-38W100%0.0
1-16Jackson St. (217.9)SWACA65-71W100%0.0
1-18Grambling St. (346.3)SWACA54-69W100%0.0
1-23Mississippi Valley St. (323.1)SWACH75-60W100%0.0
1-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.0)SWACH78-49W100%0.0
1-30Alabama St. (303.9)SWACA72-75W100%0.0
2-1Alabama A&M (306.8)SWACA68-71W100%0.0
2-6Prairie View A&M (344.1)SWACA59-55L0%0.0
2-13Jackson St. (217.9)SWACH0-071%6.2
2-15Grambling St. (346.3)SWACH0-096%19.2
2-20Mississippi Valley St. (323.1)SWACA0-083%10.2
2-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.0)SWACA0-084%11.0
2-27Alabama A&M (306.8)SWACH0-081%9.4
2-29Alabama St. (303.9)SWACH0-086%11.7
3-3Southern (179.4)SWACA0-043%-2.0
3-5Alcorn St. (281.1)SWACA0-079%8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas SouthernSWAC26.2526.3955.8163.023.056.87
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.024.305.0014.78-4.52-3.03
Jackson St.SWAC2.914.2952.3857.170.140.62
SouthernSWAC2.914.2965.0068.130.871.56
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.874.2825.0026.87-1.43-1.98
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.874.2820.8323.23-1.67-2.29
Alabama St.SWAC2.844.2630.0035.40-1.13-1.24
Alcorn St.SWAC2.854.2642.1142.71-0.45-0.62
Grambling St.SWAC2.854.2615.7919.37-1.95-2.61
Alabama A&MSWAC2.834.2538.8945.67-0.63-0.37
BaylorB122.491.8171.4365.301.070.55
Mississippi St.SEC2.331.7338.1038.60-0.55-0.39
ClemsonACC2.371.7256.5256.980.310.24
UTSACUSA2.371.7214.2914.11-1.69-1.24
Central MichiganMAC2.321.7047.3749.38-0.12-0.02
HowardMEAC2.331.7033.3336.67-0.78-0.45
CreightonBE2.321.7060.8758.460.510.29
New MexicoMWC2.321.7059.0961.770.420.40
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.321.6970.5974.600.960.83
SyracuseACC2.321.6965.2261.330.710.38
Washington St.P122.321.6933.3329.55-0.77-0.69
IonaMAAC2.271.6759.0959.350.410.31
Louisiana TechCUSA0.320.2971.4368.720.140.11
TulaneAmer0.330.2433.3332.31-0.11-0.08
Virginia TechACC0.250.2354.1749.230.02-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.2082.6181.140.140.13
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.210.2015.0026.98-0.15-0.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.2025.0033.17-0.13-0.07
NebraskaB100.240.1954.1751.850.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1875.0076.230.080.09
MarquetteBE0.110.1762.5056.200.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1525.0024.35-0.09-0.08
UTEPCUSA0.160.1552.1751.940.010.01
OhioMAC0.150.1461.9059.450.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.150.1469.5764.850.060.04
Texas TechB120.150.1459.0953.170.030.01
HawaiiBW0.140.1384.2181.700.100.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.1365.2268.620.060.05
Ball St.MAC0.060.1263.6459.220.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1266.6762.630.040.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1245.4546.27-0.02-0.01
MemphisAmer0.110.1260.8760.780.020.03
MercerSC0.110.1269.5769.090.040.05
UABCUSA0.170.1282.6179.410.110.07
Arizona St.P120.210.1254.1751.640.020.00
ArkansasSEC0.110.1252.1755.940.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1238.1037.70-0.02-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1131.5831.99-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.100.1182.6179.220.070.07
Texas St.SB0.210.1138.8938.50-0.05-0.03
OklahomaB120.150.1186.9682.610.110.07
TCUB120.150.1145.8339.31-0.01-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1178.2678.050.090.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1168.1866.690.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.050.1130.4326.54-0.02-0.05
UNLVMWC0.200.1150.0055.190.000.01
BYUWCC0.150.1166.6769.510.050.04
North TexasCUSA0.140.1133.3333.02-0.05-0.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1173.9170.050.050.04
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1145.8342.26-0.01-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.1145.4538.46-0.01-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.1047.6245.00-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.0976.1972.290.060.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0917.6526.67-0.07-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0933.3335.47-0.02-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0929.1733.14-0.05-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.0921.0527.79-0.10-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0947.8350.14-0.000.00
IndianaB100.100.0979.1774.020.060.04
AkronMAC0.160.0981.8280.030.100.05
Northern IowaMVC0.160.0954.1755.070.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.110.0931.8230.47-0.04-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0914.2920.64-0.07-0.05
ElonCAA0.100.0952.1750.420.000.00
WyomingMWC0.100.0943.4842.49-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.150.0950.0051.290.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0942.8639.19-0.01-0.02
MassachusettsA100.150.0840.9139.35-0.03-0.02
RutgersB100.150.0821.7420.35-0.08-0.05
USCP120.150.0878.2673.050.090.04
TexasB120.100.0866.6762.220.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.0859.0953.040.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0861.9056.690.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0886.3679.140.070.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0843.4842.62-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0852.1751.630.000.00
Miami FLACC0.150.0881.8276.750.090.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0882.6178.070.060.05
WisconsinB100.150.0860.8755.840.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0882.6178.660.060.05
PittsburghACC0.090.0876.1968.210.050.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.0856.0052.770.020.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0825.0023.34-0.05-0.04
MissouriSEC0.100.0834.7830.38-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0652.9452.160.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0630.0029.25-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.4549.70-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3633.47-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0645.0049.42-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0613.6415.79-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.0617.6529.21-0.08-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0643.4842.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0625.0025.09-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0668.0067.980.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0658.3354.120.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0640.0038.51-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0666.6770.550.020.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0652.3847.040.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.9686.690.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.73-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0660.0060.100.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0636.8441.40-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.320.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0629.1733.74-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0656.5256.320.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0663.1658.810.010.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0659.0960.100.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.110.0671.4369.860.050.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.440.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0618.1821.06-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.100.0679.1778.350.060.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0644.0045.27-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0669.5765.360.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0654.1754.120.010.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.19-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0642.8642.01-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.100.0622.7324.79-0.05-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0679.1780.720.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0624.0024.50-0.05-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0661.9056.420.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0636.3636.08-0.01-0.02
RiderMAAC0.100.0640.0042.12-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.0640.9143.34-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0664.0064.140.000.02
UCLAP120.100.0656.5253.240.010.00
UtahP120.050.0669.5767.490.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0665.2261.090.020.01
CornellIvy0.100.0642.1140.18-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.100.0679.1776.510.060.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.93-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.0628.5729.68-0.04-0.02
BryantNEC0.100.0625.0026.39-0.05-0.03
HoustonAmer0.100.0669.5766.530.040.02
KansasB120.050.0681.8277.600.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.370.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0665.2259.020.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0656.5260.010.010.01
VCUA100.100.0673.9173.910.050.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0682.6179.560.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0540.9136.60-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.090.0575.0071.700.050.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0579.1776.080.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0550.0049.090.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0570.8367.730.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0543.4840.57-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0563.6462.530.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0569.5767.170.020.02
DePaulBE0.090.0534.7834.54-0.03-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0561.9059.630.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0555.0054.530.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0575.0070.940.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0572.7372.060.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0525.0022.75-0.02-0.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0573.9169.840.050.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0545.0046.78-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.090.0586.9686.360.070.04
XavierBE0.000.0591.3084.340.000.04
ArmyPat0.050.0554.1754.570.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0570.8370.840.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0563.6456.440.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0583.3383.030.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0566.6763.440.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0528.0030.74-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0530.4331.18-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.0034.72-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0326.0929.19-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0327.7834.19-0.03-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.15-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0359.0958.870.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.49-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0363.6459.460.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0359.0959.640.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0352.1754.150.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.33-0.03-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0365.0069.270.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0365.2262.840.000.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.33-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.14-0.04-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.800.030.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.950.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.12-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.180.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0356.5262.790.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.630.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.04-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0350.0046.620.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.430.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.040.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0365.2266.070.020.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.560.020.01
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.250.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.73-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.86-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.89-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.70-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.03-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.23-0.01-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.80-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0352.3850.420.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.490.020.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0336.3639.78-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0371.4368.950.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0327.7829.14-0.02-0.01