live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:100.0
Current RPI:100
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:67
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:144
Expected OOC SOS:244



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15100.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH73-78L0%0.0
11-13Portland (178.0)WCCH79-73W100%0.0
11-17Maryland (78.0)ACCA83-90W100%0.0
11-26SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH101-81W100%0.0
12-1DePaul (154.0)BEA93-81L0%0.0
12-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH77-63W100%0.0
12-15Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH98-66W100%0.0
12-18Towson (95.0)CAAH76-67W100%0.0
12-22Akron (93.0)MACN83-71L0%0.0
12-23George Mason (164.0)A10N58-54W100%0.0
12-25Hawaii (160.0)BWA79-73L0%0.0
12-29Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH76-68W100%0.0
1-2Colorado (34.0)P12A64-58L0%0.0
1-4Utah (80.0)P12A80-69L0%0.0
1-9Stanford (41.0)P12H81-72W100%0.0
1-11California (63.0)P12H83-88L0%0.0
1-19Oregon (28.0)P12H80-72W100%0.0
1-22Washington St. (224.0)P12A55-66W100%0.0
1-25Washington (104.0)P12A87-81L0%0.0
1-30USC (176.0)P12H76-75W100%0.0
2-2UCLA (14.0)P12H71-67W100%0.0
2-6Arizona St. (44.0)P12A86-82L0%0.0
2-9Arizona (2.0)P12A76-54L0%0.0
2-16Oregon (28.0)P12A93-83L0%0.0
2-20Washington St. (224.0)P12H68-57W100%0.0
2-22Washington (104.0)P12H62-86L0%0.0
2-27USC (176.0)P12A66-76W100%0.0
3-2UCLA (14.0)P12A74-69L0%0.0
3-5Arizona (2.0)P12H69-74L0%0.0
3-8Arizona St. (44.0)P12H78-76W100%0.0
3-12Oregon (28.0)P12N88-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1226.2526.2548.8248.82-0.62-0.62
OregonP125.595.5972.4172.412.512.51
UCLAP124.034.0378.1278.122.272.27
ArizonaP123.983.9887.5087.502.982.98
Arizona St.P123.923.9266.6766.671.311.31
WashingtonP123.913.9150.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P123.903.9032.1432.14-1.39-1.39
USCP123.903.9034.4834.48-1.21-1.21
StanfordP122.542.5465.6265.620.800.80
ColoradoP122.522.5266.6766.670.840.84
UtahP122.492.4962.0762.070.600.60
CaliforniaP122.442.4458.0658.060.390.39
Coppin St.MEAC1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.661.6618.5218.52-1.05-1.05
DePaulBE1.661.6634.3834.38-0.52-0.52
AkronMAC1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
TowsonCAA1.641.6470.0070.000.660.66
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
George MasonA101.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
HawaiiBW1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
MarylandACC1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
PortlandWCC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.611.6132.1432.14-0.58-0.58
UC IrvineBW0.260.2665.6265.620.080.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
BYUWCC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
CreightonBE0.180.1878.7978.790.100.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
UC DavisBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.140.1419.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
UMBCAE0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.130.1387.5087.500.100.10
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
IdahoWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00