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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:133.0
Current RPI:133
Expected SOS:105
Current SOS:105
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14133.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rice (247.0)CUSAH67-54W100%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH55-42W100%0.0
11-24Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12N66-53L0%0.0
11-26Auburn (129.0)SECN71-69L0%0.0
12-3Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH74-50W100%0.0
12-6Portland (149.0)WCCA58-65W100%0.0
12-13Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH59-49W100%0.0
12-15Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH71-43W100%0.0
12-18DePaul (197.0)BEH90-59W100%0.0
12-21Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA60-52L0%0.0
12-30UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH76-64W100%0.0
1-3Oregon (27.0)P12A71-59L0%0.0
1-8Arizona St. (102.0)P12H55-47W100%0.0
1-11Arizona (5.0)P12H58-56W100%0.0
1-15Washington (126.0)P12A56-43L0%0.0
1-17Washington St. (169.0)P12A47-62W100%0.0
1-22UCLA (48.0)P12H66-55W100%0.0
1-24USC (207.0)P12H59-55W100%0.0
1-28Arizona St. (102.0)P12A73-55L0%0.0
1-30Arizona (5.0)P12A57-34L0%0.0
2-5Washington St. (169.0)P12H55-50W100%0.0
2-8Washington (126.0)P12H64-50W100%0.0
2-11UCLA (48.0)P12A75-59L0%0.0
2-14USC (207.0)P12A68-55L0%0.0
2-19Utah (20.0)P12H37-47L0%0.0
2-21Colorado (116.0)P12H72-58W100%0.0
2-26Stanford (59.0)P12A75-48L0%0.0
3-1California (95.0)P12A73-56L0%0.0
3-4Oregon (27.0)P12H62-65L0%0.0
3-11Colorado (116.0)P12N71-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1226.2126.2150.0050.000.000.00
OregonP124.244.2470.9770.971.781.78
ColoradoP124.214.2146.6746.67-0.28-0.28
ArizonaP124.144.1493.7593.753.623.62
UCLAP124.114.1161.2961.290.930.93
USCP124.114.1136.6736.67-1.10-1.10
Washington St.P124.094.0944.8344.83-0.42-0.42
WashingtonP124.064.0651.7251.720.140.14
Arizona St.P124.064.0653.3353.330.270.27
StanfordP122.582.5858.0658.060.420.42
CaliforniaP122.572.5753.1253.120.160.16
UtahP122.572.5773.3373.331.201.20
AuburnSEC1.771.7739.3939.39-0.38-0.38
Grambling St.SWAC1.771.770.000.00-1.77-1.77
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.771.7758.6258.620.310.31
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.761.7619.3519.35-1.08-1.08
DePaulBE1.741.7438.7138.71-0.39-0.39
Mississippi St.SEC1.741.7440.0040.00-0.35-0.35
RiceCUSA1.721.7235.7135.71-0.49-0.49
Oklahoma St.B121.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
Oral RobertsSum1.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
PortlandWCC1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.210.2168.7568.750.080.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
GonzagaWCC0.210.2193.9493.940.180.18
MissouriSEC0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
TCUB120.190.1954.5554.550.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
UNLVMWC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1716.6716.67-0.11-0.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1762.9662.960.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
BYUWCC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
TexasB120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
San DiegoWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
KentuckySEC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.110.1179.3179.310.060.06
George WashingtonA100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
BaylorB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00