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Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:277.1
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:128
Current Record:3-14
Expected Record:4-26
Current Conf Record:0-5
Expected Conf Record:1-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:332
Expected OOC SOS:279



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21211.50.13%
8-22228.70.67%
7-23243.43.83%
6-24257.712.97%
5-25271.327.93%
4-26283.935.98%
3-27295.618.48%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Prairie View A&M (295.3)SWACH78-58W100%0.0
11-13UTSA (288.1)CUSAH72-64W100%0.0
11-16Lamar (251.7)SlndH60-63L0%0.0
11-18Nevada (35.7)MWCA83-58L0%0.0
11-22Tulsa (114.3)AmerA75-64L0%0.0
11-25Fresno St. (135.6)MWCH58-63L0%0.0
12-1Mississippi St. (119.4)SECA74-57L0%0.0
12-3Charlotte (229.7)CUSAA69-66L0%0.0
12-11Savannah St. (325.1)MEACH90-93L0%0.0
12-16Long Beach St. (226.6)BWH67-71L0%0.0
12-18Portland (195.7)WCCN45-53L0%0.0
12-21Kent St. (215.3)MACH69-50W100%0.0
12-28USC (40.5)P12H63-70L0%0.0
12-30UCLA (16.3)P12H63-76L0%0.0
1-4Washington St. (183.5)P12A75-62L0%0.0
1-7Washington (142.4)P12A87-61L0%0.0
1-14Oregon (13.4)P12A85-43L0%0.0
1-19Stanford (88.0)P12H0-025%-7.4
1-21California (52.7)P12H0-013%-12.6
1-26Colorado (117.0)P12A0-08%-15.7
1-28Utah (75.3)P12A0-05%-18.4
2-2Arizona (11.6)P12H0-05%-18.6
2-4Arizona St. (126.5)P12H0-033%-5.1
2-9USC (40.5)P12A0-06%-17.5
2-12UCLA (16.3)P12A0-01%-26.2
2-16Colorado (117.0)P12H0-020%-9.5
2-19Utah (75.3)P12H0-014%-12.2
2-22Stanford (88.0)P12A0-011%-13.6
2-24California (52.7)P12A0-05%-18.8
3-4Oregon (13.4)P12H0-04%-19.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1226.5026.2411.6910.57-20.30-20.69
OregonP123.464.1887.5081.582.592.64
ColoradoP120.254.0952.9452.030.010.17
UtahP120.244.0866.6762.770.081.04
CaliforniaP120.334.0672.2264.320.151.16
UCLAP123.204.0694.4488.632.853.14
StanfordP120.334.0652.9444.660.02-0.43
USCP123.034.0083.3371.162.021.69
WashingtonP123.282.5043.7540.27-0.41-0.49
ArizonaP120.002.4588.8982.740.001.60
Arizona St.P120.002.4550.0043.560.00-0.31
Washington St.P123.112.4446.6733.17-0.21-0.82
Fresno St.MWC3.391.8653.3350.140.230.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.231.8218.7536.45-2.02-0.49
UTSACUSA3.221.7846.6739.70-0.21-0.37
PortlandWCC3.021.7846.6740.12-0.20-0.35
NevadaMWC3.121.7582.3577.902.020.98
LamarSlnd3.211.7546.1547.70-0.25-0.08
Long Beach St.BW3.111.7517.6533.83-2.01-0.57
Savannah St.MEAC3.031.7220.0029.32-1.82-0.71
CharlotteCUSA2.941.7040.0041.45-0.59-0.29
Kent St.MAC2.941.6750.0049.910.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC2.941.6768.7556.911.100.23
TulsaAmer2.941.6753.3349.610.20-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.270.2558.8264.270.050.07
Colorado St.MWC0.080.2356.2553.600.010.02
Cal PolyBW0.270.2220.0029.49-0.16-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.250.2015.3827.49-0.17-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.260.2062.5063.040.070.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.2040.0046.09-0.05-0.02
WyomingMWC0.250.2062.5055.530.060.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.240.1914.2927.70-0.17-0.08
San Jose St.MWC0.360.1750.0041.050.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.260.1788.2487.500.200.13
Louisiana TechCUSA0.270.1762.5068.380.070.06
PacificWCC0.340.1738.8934.93-0.08-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.090.1743.7537.62-0.01-0.04
BYUWCC0.080.1768.4268.140.030.06
San DiegoWCC0.150.1747.0640.40-0.01-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.1778.9576.610.040.09
UNLVMWC0.090.1747.3743.64-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.1650.0058.480.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.240.1652.9450.980.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1561.1158.720.020.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.280.1540.0044.61-0.06-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.370.1446.1551.20-0.030.00
PepperdineWCC0.250.1423.5321.77-0.13-0.08
New MexicoMWC0.170.1457.8958.050.030.02
MontanaBSky0.260.1452.6360.470.010.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.1235.7148.97-0.03-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.180.1247.3745.13-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.1250.0046.700.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.1240.0044.11-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.000.1272.2267.530.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.270.1220.0019.56-0.16-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.180.1218.7523.94-0.11-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.260.1125.0029.58-0.13-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1140.0040.94-0.04-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.1166.6758.200.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.170.1162.5057.030.040.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.1121.4336.57-0.05-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.1147.0648.43-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.170.1138.8935.71-0.04-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1152.9454.870.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.250.1131.2536.83-0.09-0.03
KentuckySEC0.160.1188.8987.430.130.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0946.1553.09-0.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0922.2225.54-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.0918.7535.76-0.11-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0925.0033.65-0.04-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0955.5660.000.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.090.0929.4138.85-0.04-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.0926.6732.18-0.04-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0961.1162.130.000.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0962.5066.040.020.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0912.5021.92-0.07-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0921.4327.22-0.05-0.04
MemphisAmer0.180.0972.2264.100.080.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0952.9455.270.010.01
ButlerBE0.000.0984.2178.350.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.0950.0047.940.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.090.0935.7144.05-0.03-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0947.3741.50-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.080.0994.4481.660.070.05
GonzagaWCC0.090.08100.0096.930.090.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0821.4326.05-0.05-0.04
Texas St.SB0.270.0853.3345.900.02-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0843.7543.64-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.180.0837.5043.18-0.04-0.01
HoustonAmer0.180.0872.2271.190.080.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0811.1123.08-0.07-0.04
SeattleWAC0.090.0840.0037.09-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0877.7866.990.050.03
WoffordSC0.090.0826.6739.94-0.04-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.170.0837.5045.11-0.04-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0850.0066.230.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0823.5320.64-0.00-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.0626.6740.11-0.04-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0630.7743.73-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0623.0831.10-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0637.5044.59-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0635.7136.20-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0660.0061.060.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0614.2929.37-0.07-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.0633.3333.44-0.07-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.0675.0076.830.090.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0682.3582.810.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.0658.8263.680.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0622.2230.92-0.06-0.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0682.3577.050.060.03
South DakotaSum0.180.0657.8957.060.030.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0658.3361.490.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0635.2937.77-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0063.130.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0653.8564.270.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0653.3361.460.010.01
DavidsonA100.090.0656.2555.630.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0653.8554.520.010.01
Kansas St.B120.180.0676.4759.460.090.01
CreightonBE0.090.0694.4484.830.080.04
AkronMAC0.000.0682.3575.750.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.066.2511.84-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0618.7528.13-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0617.6524.66-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.090.0641.1845.53-0.02-0.00
BaylorB120.090.0694.1280.670.080.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0635.2935.32-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0688.2486.400.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0657.1458.850.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0656.2559.190.000.01
George MasonA100.170.0664.7156.510.050.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0652.6348.200.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.180.0676.4777.760.100.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0631.2545.29-0.03-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0625.0028.48-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.090.0656.2539.360.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0637.5034.43-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0661.1155.110.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0660.0053.490.020.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0688.8977.880.000.03
OhioMAC0.090.0666.6767.310.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0660.0066.160.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0681.2572.840.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3333.90-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0635.2928.89-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0637.5051.02-0.020.00
TCUB120.170.0681.2565.210.110.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0652.9452.830.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0677.7877.180.050.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0681.2576.190.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.170.0678.9582.970.100.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0531.2526.54-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0588.2484.470.060.04
CornellIvy0.080.0520.0024.59-0.05-0.03
IonaMAAC0.160.0557.8962.290.030.01
MichiganB100.080.0563.1658.050.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0561.1157.810.020.01
NebraskaB100.080.0550.0043.400.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0550.0051.390.000.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0561.1156.520.020.01
TroySB0.080.0547.0648.08-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.0330.7736.84-0.04-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0312.5024.41-0.07-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0317.6529.57-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.110.0342.1130.44-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0312.5019.97-0.07-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0362.5060.130.020.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.51-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.036.6718.54-0.09-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.0323.0830.99-0.06-0.01
IowaB100.090.0357.8951.110.010.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0364.7161.950.030.01
LibertyBSth0.110.0343.7549.94-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0312.5033.85-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0014.41-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0360.0072.720.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0316.6721.64-0.06-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0342.8647.01-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0328.5731.55-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.090.0375.0076.080.050.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0325.0025.30-0.05-0.01
ElonCAA0.090.0347.0649.73-0.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0327.7830.30-0.04-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0366.6761.460.030.01
MarylandB100.090.0388.2471.860.070.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0350.0047.440.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0358.8252.990.020.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0352.9451.000.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0364.7161.540.030.01
Texas TechB120.090.0376.4763.780.050.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0377.7870.240.050.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0364.7154.900.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.090.0364.7156.190.030.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0337.5038.14-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0356.2551.860.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0327.7834.21-0.04-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0368.7573.530.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0364.7158.480.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0353.3355.950.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0355.5653.980.010.00
LehighPat0.090.0356.2566.320.010.01
Little RockSB0.090.0356.2551.270.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0383.3377.690.050.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0331.2539.90-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0326.3227.81-0.04-0.01
NJITASun0.090.0341.1845.41-0.02-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0384.2180.540.060.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0366.6763.280.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0317.6521.39-0.06-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0356.2553.910.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0317.6527.66-0.06-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0352.6353.230.000.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0338.8940.00-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0344.4442.66-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.090.0383.3381.270.060.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0358.8254.920.020.00
YaleIvy0.090.0357.1465.270.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0338.8934.53-0.02-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0361.1163.000.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0363.1657.650.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0333.3342.17-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0331.2537.17-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0370.5972.950.030.01
PurdueB100.000.0378.9576.880.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.1142.60-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0335.2930.56-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0350.0052.280.000.00