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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:145.6
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:114
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:219
Expected OOC SOS:315



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-953.00.01%
20-1067.70.10%
19-1178.11.24%
18-1292.95.18%
17-13110.912.59%
16-14130.122.34%
15-15150.326.86%
14-16169.520.08%
13-17188.89.10%
12-18205.32.27%
11-19221.10.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Southern Utah (264.2)BSkyH99-82W100%0.0
11-13Wyoming (100.7)MWCH66-75L0%0.0
11-18Long Beach St. (190.9)BWH89-81W100%0.0
11-23St. John's (95.3)BEN77-82L0%0.0
11-24Long Beach St. (190.9)BWN69-74L0%0.0
11-26Marist (317.4)MAACN46-65W100%0.0
12-2Loyola Marymount (262.7)WCCH78-74W100%0.0
12-5Eastern Kentucky (270.1)OVCH74-62W100%0.0
12-9Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.7)SWACH85-58W100%0.0
12-12Jacksonville St. (151.6)OVCH70-69W100%0.0
12-16Saint Louis (176.5)A10H63-60W100%0.0
12-21Kent St. (185.1)MACA79-78L0%0.0
12-29Colorado (83.8)P12H76-57W100%0.0
12-31Utah (67.5)P12H64-66L0%0.0
1-5Oregon (67.2)P12H76-64W100%0.0
1-11Arizona (16.0)P12A62-53L0%0.0
1-13Arizona St. (32.2)P12A77-75L0%0.0
1-18UCLA (63.4)P12H69-63W100%0.0
1-20USC (34.7)P12H67-74L0%0.0
1-27Oregon (67.2)P12A0-020%-9.3
2-1Stanford (89.2)P12A0-034%-4.6
2-3California (190.3)P12A0-061%3.1
2-8Washington St. (171.2)P12H0-072%6.4
2-10Washington (76.6)P12H0-060%2.8
2-15UCLA (63.4)P12A0-020%-9.4
2-17USC (34.7)P12A0-016%-11.0
2-22Arizona (16.0)P12H0-024%-8.0
2-24Arizona St. (32.2)P12H0-032%-5.3
3-1Washington (76.6)P12A0-037%-3.6
3-3Washington St. (171.2)P12A0-050%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1226.4426.2746.6745.45-1.76-2.39
OregonP123.034.1068.4265.501.121.27
ArizonaP123.034.0578.9578.301.762.29
WashingtonP120.344.0270.0062.130.130.98
Arizona St.P122.974.0277.7875.551.652.05
USCP122.833.9970.0066.661.131.33
UCLAP122.833.9968.4263.611.041.09
Washington St.P120.263.9947.3741.61-0.01-0.67
Long Beach St.BW5.413.4438.8942.87-1.20-0.49
StanfordP120.402.5455.0049.850.04-0.01
ColoradoP122.962.4963.1655.570.780.28
CaliforniaP120.262.4936.8430.85-0.07-0.95
UtahP122.962.4961.1158.270.660.41
Jacksonville St.OVC2.771.7273.6870.581.310.71
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.761.7233.3333.89-0.92-0.55
Southern UtahBSky2.761.7240.0035.08-0.55-0.51
St. John'sBE2.701.7244.4440.16-0.30-0.34
Loyola MarymountWCC2.631.7229.4130.18-1.08-0.68
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.631.6731.5837.68-0.97-0.41
Kent St.MAC2.631.6741.1843.02-0.46-0.23
MaristMAAC2.631.6722.2222.78-1.46-0.91
Saint LouisA102.631.6750.0048.540.00-0.05
WyomingMWC2.631.6758.8255.340.460.18
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.290.2338.8946.05-0.07-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.270.2256.2556.830.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.270.2230.0039.93-0.11-0.04
UC DavisBW0.130.2258.8262.440.020.05
San FranciscoWCC0.270.2050.0048.730.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.280.2045.0044.47-0.03-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1958.8262.820.030.05
Colorado St.MWC0.340.1945.0041.33-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.260.1966.6763.420.090.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1921.0544.26-0.08-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.150.1743.7540.93-0.02-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.1711.1115.29-0.17-0.12
Boise St.MWC0.290.1778.9576.990.170.09
Portland St.BSky0.140.1758.8263.210.020.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.1717.6519.30-0.13-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.200.1717.6523.86-0.13-0.09
BelmontOVC0.070.1771.4374.660.030.08
XavierBE0.280.1785.7180.080.200.10
HawaiiBW0.270.1768.7563.990.100.05
Cal PolyBW0.000.1723.5328.210.00-0.07
SeattleWAC0.070.1657.8954.500.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.1670.5969.630.030.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.270.1621.0539.48-0.16-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.210.1510.5318.34-0.17-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.1490.4888.960.060.11
MontanaBSky0.080.1470.5973.150.030.07
UNLVMWC0.220.1473.6865.260.100.04
Murray St.OVC0.200.1470.5975.950.080.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.1433.3332.94-0.07-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1445.0049.29-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.200.1445.0048.56-0.02-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.140.1470.0060.470.060.03
KansasB120.070.1484.2179.750.050.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.200.1316.6724.26-0.13-0.07
SMUAmer0.190.1370.0070.570.080.05
IdahoBSky0.080.1264.7166.850.020.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.1180.9583.260.050.08
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1123.5328.69-0.07-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1142.1143.51-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.1135.2940.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1157.8953.190.020.01
MissouriSEC0.270.1166.6763.200.090.03
ButlerBE0.140.1166.6763.070.050.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1126.3231.50-0.06-0.04
CreightonBE0.140.1175.0070.700.070.05
Kansas St.B120.070.1173.6862.720.030.03
NebraskaB100.270.1166.6759.820.090.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.1150.0051.640.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.200.1189.4785.550.160.08
AkronMAC0.060.1147.0644.91-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.1161.1158.700.010.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1150.0052.460.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1129.4133.20-0.05-0.04
DePaulBE0.140.1142.1134.31-0.02-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1136.8435.57-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.110.0010.67-0.21-0.09
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1152.6347.390.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1144.4450.31-0.010.00
OklahomaB120.130.1177.7867.910.070.04
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1168.4263.960.050.03
BYUWCC0.140.0980.9576.240.090.05
Weber St.BSky0.150.0956.2557.400.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.140.0963.1657.540.040.01
Central MichiganMAC0.160.0962.5058.690.040.02
Michigan St.B100.210.0985.0083.200.150.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.0958.8257.140.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0911.7612.81-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0844.4446.00-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.140.0845.0045.49-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0872.2274.930.030.04
ChattanoogaSC0.200.0822.2228.59-0.11-0.04
DetroitHorz0.140.0821.0525.97-0.08-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.0846.6746.97-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.0835.0031.83-0.04-0.03
RichmondA100.140.0831.5834.36-0.05-0.03
West VirginiaB120.200.0884.2178.170.140.05
DenverSum0.140.0833.3336.48-0.05-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.130.0837.5031.76-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0861.9063.140.020.02
LehighPat0.130.0838.8944.75-0.03-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0868.4257.740.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.28-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.150.0647.6244.02-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.140.0652.6345.860.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.76-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0618.7536.82-0.09-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.76-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.140.0661.1160.440.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0658.8249.760.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0647.3750.940.000.00
DrakeMVC0.140.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0638.8944.08-0.02-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.140.0668.4254.070.050.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0660.0064.110.010.02
IUPUIHorz0.000.0627.7829.830.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.970.030.02
La SalleA100.070.0640.0042.69-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0616.6716.16-0.05-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.550.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0647.0641.41-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0676.1970.740.030.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0685.7182.090.050.04
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.050.010.00
OhioMAC0.070.0647.0648.41-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.320.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0642.1146.090.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0675.0067.890.030.02
SienaMAAC0.140.0628.5729.94-0.06-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0627.7831.71-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0673.6872.380.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.0672.2272.980.060.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6768.730.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0633.3334.100.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0660.0059.700.000.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.060.04
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0652.9452.230.010.00
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0563.1663.220.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0568.4258.980.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.059.5217.90-0.05-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0516.6724.910.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0572.2274.710.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0525.0028.010.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0583.3384.240.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0565.0056.340.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0552.9460.220.000.01
PurdueB100.070.0590.4888.370.050.04
UMBCAE0.070.0555.5655.540.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0510.5316.75-0.05-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0512.5025.45-0.05-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0536.8444.110.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0538.8943.430.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0527.7840.97-0.03-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.450.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0325.0031.45-0.03-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.77-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.650.030.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.210.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.037.1414.82-0.06-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.05-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.240.030.01
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.140.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.030.000.00
DavidsonA100.070.0358.8261.450.010.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.210.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0345.0043.480.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.05-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.370.050.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.190.040.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.920.030.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0327.7841.030.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.430.050.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.47-0.03-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.910.020.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0355.0052.470.010.00
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.36-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.700.020.01
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.860.030.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0333.3333.87-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0311.1118.00-0.05-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0378.9577.380.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0368.7563.690.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.51-0.04-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0373.6871.560.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.060.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0380.9576.520.000.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00