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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:150.2
Current RPI:159
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:271
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-628.00.02%
22-736.50.08%
21-851.30.23%
20-964.40.62%
19-1078.72.46%
18-1194.96.40%
17-12111.711.36%
16-13129.717.12%
15-14147.920.07%
14-15166.918.08%
13-16185.913.20%
12-17206.36.50%
11-18226.52.90%
10-19244.20.82%
9-20258.60.12%
8-21279.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rice (286.9)CUSAH67-54W100%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (221.8)SumH55-42W100%0.0
11-24Oklahoma St. (42.3)B12N66-53L0%0.0
11-26Auburn (172.3)SECN71-69L0%0.0
12-3Mississippi Valley St. (346.8)SWACH74-50W100%0.0
12-6Portland (177.1)WCCA58-65W100%0.0
12-13Mississippi St. (223.3)SECH59-49W100%0.0
12-15Grambling St. (349.4)SWACH71-43W100%0.0
12-18DePaul (200.9)BEH90-59W100%0.0
12-21Quinnipiac (202.7)MAACA60-52L0%0.0
12-30UC Santa Barbara (76.6)BWH0-049%-0.2
1-3Oregon (104.7)P12A0-028%-6.6
1-8Arizona St. (124.4)P12H0-058%2.5
1-11Arizona (14.2)P12H0-029%-6.5
1-15Washington (29.3)P12A0-018%-10.8
1-17Washington St. (199.7)P12A0-057%2.1
1-22UCLA (80.3)P12H0-056%1.9
1-24USC (170.3)P12H0-079%9.3
1-28Arizona St. (124.4)P12A0-030%-6.1
1-30Arizona (14.2)P12A0-010%-15.1
2-5Washington St. (199.7)P12H0-082%10.6
2-8Washington (29.3)P12H0-042%-2.3
2-11UCLA (80.3)P12A0-028%-6.7
2-14USC (170.3)P12A0-053%0.8
2-19Utah (11.4)P12H0-022%-9.1
2-21Colorado (66.5)P12H0-051%0.2
2-26Stanford (68.7)P12A0-024%-8.3
3-1California (49.0)P12A0-022%-9.0
3-4Oregon (104.7)P12H0-057%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1227.7826.2465.7947.808.77-1.15
OregonP120.004.2770.0057.400.000.63
Washington St.P120.424.2045.4530.44-0.04-1.64
WashingtonP120.364.17100.0075.960.362.16
UCLAP120.004.1466.6754.380.000.36
ArizonaP120.004.14100.0082.970.002.73
Arizona St.P120.004.1454.5548.600.00-0.12
USCP120.004.1363.6440.580.00-0.78
ColoradoP120.252.6366.6758.230.080.43
StanfordP120.252.6166.6757.590.080.40
UtahP120.002.5880.0080.580.001.58
CaliforniaP120.002.5890.9168.110.000.93
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.8437.5065.14-0.000.56
Grambling St.SWAC5.001.840.009.40-5.00-1.49
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC5.281.8210.0017.96-4.22-1.17
AuburnSEC5.001.7844.4437.49-0.56-0.45
DePaulBE5.001.7866.6735.561.67-0.52
RiceCUSA5.001.7820.0027.55-3.00-0.80
Mississippi St.SEC5.231.7850.0038.780.00-0.40
Oklahoma St.B125.001.7277.7856.542.780.23
Oral RobertsSum5.001.7244.4445.15-0.56-0.17
PortlandWCC5.001.7277.7852.452.780.08
QuinnipiacMAAC5.001.7244.4452.28-0.560.08
UTEPCUSA0.000.2363.6472.270.000.10
MissouriSEC0.250.2340.0032.37-0.05-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.000.2390.9190.730.000.19
TCUB120.510.21100.0068.320.510.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2025.0023.65-0.00-0.11
OklahomaB120.250.2070.0062.800.100.05
UNLVMWC0.250.2066.6750.030.080.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.2070.0052.050.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.670.180.0039.01-0.67-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1718.1822.91-0.00-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.000.1744.4448.17-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1736.3637.27-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1736.3650.65-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1528.5761.90-0.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1518.1837.88-0.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1520.0053.25-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.150.0026.25-0.00-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.000.1554.5557.750.000.02
TexasB120.000.1590.9180.170.000.09
UC RiversideBW0.000.1550.0042.770.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.250.1550.0042.750.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.250.150.006.54-0.25-0.13
DetroitHorz0.000.1440.0047.83-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1470.0052.340.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1472.7372.880.000.07
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1470.0061.360.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0028.78-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1216.6743.50-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0034.55-0.00-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.480.1250.0041.130.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.1237.5035.62-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.1270.0068.400.000.04
KansasB120.000.1290.0071.080.000.05
Missouri St.MVC0.250.1233.3337.25-0.08-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.1255.5638.450.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1244.4436.96-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1287.5067.460.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz1.000.1230.0030.65-0.40-0.05
VermontAE0.250.1240.0053.58-0.050.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1266.6755.760.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1266.6763.320.000.03
LehighPat0.500.1244.4455.25-0.060.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1260.0049.390.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1263.6440.220.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.510.1188.8956.070.390.01
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0096.240.000.10
MichiganB100.000.1150.0040.340.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0945.4552.17-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0970.0059.860.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.250.0954.5548.910.02-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0941.6751.30-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0933.3343.01-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0937.5041.68-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.750.0960.0056.010.150.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0922.2236.02-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0940.0046.92-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.250.0990.0055.400.200.01
XavierBE0.250.0972.7367.750.110.03
UABCUSA0.000.0930.0035.75-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0990.0065.820.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.250.0966.6765.440.080.03
Montana St.BSky0.250.0920.0026.61-0.15-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0980.0072.430.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0980.0063.750.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0955.5646.470.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.280.0954.5548.690.03-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0966.6758.480.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.250.090.0011.31-0.25-0.07
MarylandB100.250.0991.6772.610.210.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0960.0076.800.000.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.0862.5071.550.060.04
Air ForceMWC0.360.0650.0055.800.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0654.5564.030.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0690.0082.040.000.04
Ball St.MAC0.360.0625.0037.11-0.18-0.02
George WashingtonA100.610.0666.6765.780.200.02
MercerSC0.420.0644.4443.16-0.05-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.190.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.870.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.450.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.440.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.77-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0055.090.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0054.280.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0662.5057.910.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.93-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.500.0618.1819.54-0.32-0.04
MemphisAmer0.500.0660.0061.850.100.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.050.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.500.0637.5049.56-0.13-0.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.480.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7368.580.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0660.0064.660.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0669.2349.070.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.250.0640.0037.46-0.05-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.760.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.180.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0630.0037.19-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0915.53-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0058.250.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.75-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0057.450.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0052.960.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.95-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0681.8263.950.000.02
SienaMAAC0.250.0633.3349.48-0.08-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.680.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.420.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.260.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.560.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.480.0642.8633.60-0.07-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.450.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0680.0067.350.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0660.0038.770.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0013.95-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0636.3646.70-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0663.6464.970.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5053.02-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0611.1129.44-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.050.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0672.7361.760.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0691.6755.080.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.2735.54-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0640.0055.83-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0644.4449.08-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.500.000.01
VCUA100.000.0672.7376.010.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0618.1830.67-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.19-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5049.96-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0675.0063.910.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.88-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0018.31-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0672.7374.520.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.26-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0630.0038.42-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.360.0391.6776.600.300.02
PurdueB100.360.0366.6759.240.120.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.0047.08-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8648.12-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.420.0316.6736.42-0.28-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2936.23-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.570.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.55-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0337.5027.75-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.800.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.420.0357.1457.190.060.00
LipscombASun0.000.0330.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.250.0360.0064.830.050.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.0333.3361.51-0.080.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0337.5056.99-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.250.0337.5037.29-0.06-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.0312.5026.95-0.19-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0372.7375.960.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.250.0381.8272.960.160.01
Weber St.BSky0.250.0337.5044.53-0.06-0.00
AlbanyAE0.250.0340.0054.66-0.050.00
Boston UniversityPat0.250.0330.0041.58-0.10-0.01
HartfordAE0.250.0354.5553.240.020.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.250.0318.1820.68-0.16-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.250.0360.0061.400.050.01
La SalleA100.250.0354.5553.370.020.00
MaineAE0.000.0310.0022.40-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0034.43-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.250.0320.0045.83-0.15-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0330.0040.39-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.130.000.02
YaleIvy0.250.0366.6763.060.080.01
Arkansas St.SB0.280.0342.8649.26-0.04-0.00
ClemsonACC0.250.0360.0043.870.05-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.340.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.008.46-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.740.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.660.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.51-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0320.0044.35-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.280.0363.6436.240.08-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.280.0363.6467.200.080.01
Western CarolinaSC0.280.0327.2743.96-0.13-0.00
WinthropBSth0.250.0325.0044.51-0.13-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.500.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0316.6733.12-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0327.2729.51-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.230.0381.8263.040.140.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3328.70-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0322.2247.34-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.40-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.230.030.0023.75-0.23-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.230.0350.0071.160.000.01
NorthwesternB100.230.0363.6442.700.06-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.93-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0057.780.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.230.0333.3334.44-0.08-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.760.000.02