Oregon St.

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	135.0
Current RPI:	135
Expected SOS:	130
Current SOS:	130
Current Record:	18-14
Expected Record:	18-14
Current Conf Record:	9-12
Expected Conf Record:	9-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC RPI:	110
Expected OOC SOS:	279

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-14	135.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	H	86-62	W	100%
11-16	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	H	82-72	W	100%
11-19	Texas (50.0)	B12	N	100-95	W	100%
11-21	Vanderbilt (18.0)	SEC	N	62-64	L	0%
11-26	Towson (311.0)	CAA	A	46-66	W	100%
12-4	Montana (74.0)	BSky	H	71-46	W	100%
12-9	Idaho (146.0)	WAC	H	60-74	L	0%
12-13	Illinois Chicago (297.0)	Horz	H	95-53	W	100%
12-15	Howard (284.0)	MEAC	H	93-72	W	100%
12-18	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	H	101-68	W	100%
12-21	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	A	66-92	W	100%
12-29	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	95-80	L	0%
12-31	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	N	81-76	L	0%
1-5	California (37.0)	P12	H	92-85	W	100%
1-7	Stanford (97.0)	P12	H	101-103	L	0%
1-12	Arizona (79.0)	P12	A	81-73	L	0%
1-14	Arizona St. (252.0)	P12	A	76-66	L	0%
1-19	UCLA (117.0)	P12	H	87-84	W	100%
1-21	Southern California (270.0)	P12	H	78-59	W	100%
1-29	Oregon (67.0)	P12	A	71-76	W	100%
2-2	Colorado (62.0)	P12	A	82-60	L	0%
2-4	Utah (274.0)	P12	A	58-76	W	100%
2-9	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	H	73-83	L	0%
2-12	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	72-75	L	0%
2-16	Stanford (97.0)	P12	A	87-82	L	0%
2-18	California (37.0)	P12	A	77-63	L	0%
2-26	Oregon (67.0)	P12	H	73-74	L	0%
3-1	Utah (274.0)	P12	H	77-67	W	100%
3-3	Colorado (62.0)	P12	H	83-69	W	100%
3-7	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	N	64-69	W	100%
3-8	Washington (71.0)	P12	N	84-86	W	100%
3-9	Arizona (79.0)	P12	N	72-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oregon St.	P12	26.41	26.41	52.78	52.78	1.47	1.47
Washington St.	P12	5.40	5.40	44.44	44.44	-0.60	-0.60
Washington	P12	5.38	5.38	67.86	67.86	1.92	1.92
Colorado	P12	4.09	4.09	66.67	66.67	1.36	1.36
Oregon	P12	4.04	4.04	72.41	72.41	1.81	1.81
Arizona	P12	4.00	4.00	65.62	65.62	1.25	1.25
California	P12	3.95	3.95	74.19	74.19	1.91	1.91
Stanford	P12	3.92	3.92	63.33	63.33	1.04	1.04
Utah	P12	3.91	3.91	17.86	17.86	-2.51	-2.51
UCLA	P12	2.50	2.50	58.06	58.06	0.40	0.40
Arizona St.	P12	2.46	2.46	30.00	30.00	-0.98	-0.98
Southern California	P12	2.43	2.43	19.35	19.35	-1.49	-1.49
Portland St.	BSky	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Idaho	WAC	1.72	1.72	53.57	53.57	0.12	0.12
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.66	1.66	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	1.64	1.64	82.14	82.14	1.06	1.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.61	1.61	69.70	69.70	0.64	0.64
Hofstra	CAA	1.59	1.59	32.26	32.26	-0.56	-0.56
Texas	B12	1.59	1.59	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
Towson	CAA	1.59	1.59	3.23	3.23	-1.48	-1.48
Chicago St.	GWC	1.56	1.56	11.11	11.11	-1.22	-1.22
Howard	MEAC	1.56	1.56	31.03	31.03	-0.59	-0.59
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.56	1.56	25.93	25.93	-0.75	-0.75
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.31	0.31	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.28	0.28	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Montana St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	37.04	37.04	-0.07	-0.07
Weber St.	BSky	0.26	0.26	78.57	78.57	0.15	0.15
Portland	WCC	0.23	0.23	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Seattle	ind	0.23	0.23	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	30.77	30.77	-0.08	-0.08
Nevada	WAC	0.21	0.21	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.21	0.21	11.11	11.11	-0.16	-0.16
Georgia	SEC	0.19	0.19	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.16	0.16	19.23	19.23	-0.10	-0.10
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.16	0.16	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.14	0.14	67.86	67.86	0.05	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.13	0.13	25.93	25.93	-0.06	-0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.12	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.11	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	83.87	83.87	0.05	0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	94.12	94.12	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	86.21	86.21	0.04	0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	6.45	6.45	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01