live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:33.0
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:11
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:58



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1233.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Iona (77.0)MAACH93-73W100%0.0
11-19Rice (279.0)CUSAA69-77W100%0.0
11-21UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA59-71W100%0.0
11-24Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH57-63L0%0.0
12-2Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH79-70W100%0.0
12-5Nevada (118.0)MWCH66-62W100%0.0
12-12Kansas (1.0)B12A82-67L0%0.0
12-18Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH82-69W100%0.0
12-19Tulsa (58.0)AmerH76-71W100%0.0
12-21Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH82-61W100%0.0
1-3Oregon (2.0)P12H70-57W100%0.0
1-6Stanford (86.0)P12H72-78L0%0.0
1-9California (16.0)P12H77-71W100%0.0
1-13Colorado (35.0)P12A71-54L0%0.0
1-17Utah (8.0)P12A59-53L0%0.0
1-20UCLA (102.0)P12H73-82L0%0.0
1-24USC (51.0)P12H85-70W100%0.0
1-28Arizona St. (99.0)P12A86-68L0%0.0
1-30Arizona (26.0)P12A80-63L0%0.0
2-4Utah (8.0)P12H71-69W100%0.0
2-6Colorado (35.0)P12H60-56W100%0.0
2-11Stanford (86.0)P12A50-62W100%0.0
2-13California (16.0)P12A83-71L0%0.0
2-20Oregon (2.0)P12A91-81L0%0.0
2-24Washington (83.0)P12H82-81W100%0.0
2-28Washington St. (212.0)P12H69-49W100%0.0
3-2USC (51.0)P12A81-70L0%0.0
3-5UCLA (102.0)P12A82-86W100%0.0
3-9Arizona St. (99.0)P12N75-66W100%0.0
3-10California (16.0)P12N76-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1226.3126.3159.0259.024.744.74
CaliforniaP125.845.8470.0070.002.342.34
OregonP124.274.2783.8783.872.892.89
UtahP124.274.2777.4277.422.342.34
USCP124.174.1764.5264.521.211.21
Arizona St.P124.144.1446.6746.67-0.28-0.28
ColoradoP124.144.1466.6766.671.381.38
StanfordP124.134.1348.1548.15-0.15-0.15
UCLAP124.114.1146.6746.67-0.27-0.27
WashingtonP122.642.6458.0658.060.430.43
ArizonaP122.612.6175.0075.001.301.30
Washington St.P122.522.5227.5927.59-1.13-1.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.961.9658.6258.620.340.34
Cal St. FullertonBW1.831.8329.6329.63-0.75-0.75
IonaMAAC1.801.8070.9770.970.760.76
ValparaisoHorz1.741.7479.3179.311.021.02
RiceCUSA1.741.7434.4834.48-0.54-0.54
Loyola MarymountWCC1.731.7344.8344.83-0.18-0.18
KansasB121.721.7287.5087.501.291.29
QuinnipiacMAAC1.721.7231.0331.03-0.65-0.65
NevadaMWC1.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
TulsaAmer1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
MonmouthMAAC0.290.2979.4179.410.170.17
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.2528.5728.57-0.11-0.11
Long Beach St.BW0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
UNLVMWC0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
Cal PolyBW0.220.2228.5728.57-0.09-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.2283.8783.870.150.15
San Diego St.MWC0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
HawaiiBW0.200.2083.3383.330.130.13
New MexicoMWC0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
SMUAmer0.160.1683.3383.330.110.11
TexasB120.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
SeattleWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
BYUWCC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
UC DavisBW0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
PacificWCC0.140.1423.0823.08-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.140.1439.3939.39-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
WyomingMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
BaylorB120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00