live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:160.4
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:109
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-628.00.02%
21-736.20.09%
20-849.20.31%
19-960.91.06%
18-1079.52.92%
17-1195.55.89%
16-12113.710.12%
15-13134.314.92%
14-14153.416.84%
13-15173.117.01%
12-16192.914.05%
11-17211.99.25%
10-18232.24.68%
9-19248.12.01%
8-20267.00.66%
7-21272.80.12%
6-22306.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rice (269.2)CUSAH67-54W100%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (166.7)SumH55-42W100%0.0
11-24Oklahoma St. (84.7)B12N0-035%-4.8
12-3Mississippi Valley St. (343.1)SWACH0-097%22.9
12-6Portland (156.2)WCCA0-042%-2.5
12-13Mississippi St. (172.6)SECH0-066%4.9
12-15Grambling St. (333.2)SWACH0-096%21.0
12-18DePaul (183.4)BEH0-070%6.3
12-21Quinnipiac (129.4)MAACA0-040%-2.9
12-30UC Santa Barbara (134.7)BWH0-061%3.4
1-3Oregon (46.7)P12A0-017%-11.7
1-8Arizona St. (90.0)P12H0-047%-0.9
1-11Arizona (23.9)P12H0-029%-6.7
1-15Washington (100.0)P12A0-028%-7.1
1-17Washington St. (220.6)P12A0-056%1.9
1-22UCLA (48.1)P12H0-034%-4.8
1-24USC (222.9)P12H0-077%9.0
1-28Arizona St. (90.0)P12A0-025%-8.1
1-30Arizona (23.9)P12A0-012%-13.9
2-5Washington St. (220.6)P12H0-078%9.1
2-8Washington (100.0)P12H0-050%0.1
2-11UCLA (48.1)P12A0-016%-12.0
2-14USC (222.9)P12A0-056%1.8
2-19Utah (35.6)P12H0-029%-6.5
2-21Colorado (72.4)P12H0-042%-2.5
2-26Stanford (31.7)P12A0-012%-14.0
3-1California (44.3)P12A0-014%-12.9
3-4Oregon (46.7)P12H0-035%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1233.3326.31100.0044.4833.33-2.91
OregonP120.004.47100.0069.090.001.71
WashingtonP120.004.34100.0056.400.000.56
Washington St.P120.004.3433.3327.21-0.00-1.98
Arizona St.P120.004.31100.0056.240.000.54
USCP120.004.3140.0028.30-0.00-1.87
ArizonaP120.004.30100.0070.140.001.73
UCLAP120.004.30100.0064.480.001.25
StanfordP120.002.7475.0069.540.001.07
ColoradoP120.002.7466.6760.980.000.60
UtahP120.002.7166.6769.510.001.06
CaliforniaP120.002.7175.0069.250.001.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.910.0057.05-0.000.27
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.910.0026.68-0.00-0.89
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.890.0019.61-0.00-1.15
DePaulBE0.001.85100.0036.360.00-0.50
Mississippi St.SEC0.001.82100.0047.420.00-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.001.79100.0052.840.000.10
Oral RobertsSum25.001.7950.0050.020.000.00
PortlandWCC0.001.79100.0051.160.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.001.7966.6766.060.000.57
RiceCUSA25.001.7950.0029.370.00-0.74
GonzagaWCC0.000.25100.0086.980.000.19
OklahomaB120.000.2266.6762.380.000.06
UNLVMWC0.000.2175.0051.200.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2133.3326.52-0.00-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.170.190.0039.35-4.17-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.19100.0070.060.000.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1940.0042.16-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1933.3367.24-0.000.07
TCUB120.000.19100.0054.380.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1933.3335.65-0.00-0.05
MissouriSEC4.170.1966.6746.611.39-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.160.0028.18-0.00-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.000.1666.6748.260.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.160.0017.40-0.00-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.160.0063.27-0.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1620.0028.39-0.00-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.160.0032.38-0.00-0.06
TexasB120.000.16100.0081.510.000.10
DetroitHorz0.000.1533.3353.24-0.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.15100.0051.200.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.13100.0043.690.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.1350.0037.730.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.1366.6739.840.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1325.0050.35-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.1350.0062.480.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0041.94-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1325.0040.26-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0038.43-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0037.29-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.1333.3333.24-0.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1350.0045.730.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.1233.3358.75-0.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.12100.0067.070.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1250.0035.380.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.12100.0050.740.000.00
MichiganB100.000.12100.0064.520.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1275.0054.940.000.01
LehighPat0.000.120.0032.42-0.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1233.3341.27-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1025.0045.26-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1050.0035.550.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1033.3349.87-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.1066.6763.860.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0036.09-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.10100.0061.520.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.09100.0081.220.000.06
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0062.120.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.090.0020.99-0.00-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6767.580.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0059.020.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0088.080.000.07
DrexelCAA0.000.0920.0036.50-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.09100.0060.180.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0028.27-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0975.0069.220.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0975.0061.320.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0775.0065.560.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0072.270.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0775.0054.060.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0775.0070.900.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0045.380.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0750.0046.140.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0063.140.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0750.0031.800.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0750.0052.770.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0766.6747.490.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0045.000.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0733.3334.41-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0035.32-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6776.480.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.86-0.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.000.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0067.490.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0046.630.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.67-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6750.120.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0072.150.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0033.67-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3365.28-0.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6746.580.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0071.890.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6740.980.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0024.98-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0675.0056.300.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.50-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0049.19-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.710.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0060.160.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.220.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0065.55-0.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.48-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0063.150.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.23-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.83-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0650.0063.170.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.770.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.770.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0051.96-0.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0034.85-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0054.510.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0033.26-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0071.680.000.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.350.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0028.09-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.690.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3360.02-0.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0051.580.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0042.760.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3362.70-0.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6748.230.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0050.370.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0062.920.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0075.510.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3323.98-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0070.560.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0044.560.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0070.240.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0066.600.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.78-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0633.3341.47-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.640.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.390.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0680.0044.310.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.080.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.590.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0035.81-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.68-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.64-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.590.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6752.830.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.66-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0073.060.000.02
PurdueB100.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0069.230.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0054.200.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3343.07-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.32-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA4.170.0366.6746.701.39-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0048.44-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0325.0066.60-0.000.01
TulsaAmer4.170.0366.6752.481.390.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0051.68-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.980.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.50-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0070.910.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0052.66-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.080.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.03-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0054.620.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3363.61-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0043.24-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3361.17-0.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6768.430.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0325.0043.02-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0040.710.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0034.58-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6766.540.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0026.20-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0054.720.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0375.0058.200.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0017.44-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0043.51-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0043.50-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.190.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0031.430.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.080.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.00-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.310.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0069.430.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.770.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.260.000.02
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.410.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.20-0.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0041.850.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.270.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.570.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0032.88-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.97-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.73-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3347.23-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0041.22-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.410.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0085.040.000.02