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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:212.7
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:143
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-880.00.01%
20-990.60.05%
19-1096.30.19%
18-11110.60.50%
17-12126.21.97%
16-13144.04.42%
15-14163.29.13%
14-15181.913.70%
13-16201.218.27%
12-17221.918.31%
11-18241.715.76%
10-19259.710.19%
9-20277.34.88%
8-21293.11.89%
7-22306.20.64%
6-23318.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rice (273.6)CUSAH67-54W100%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (234.1)SumH55-42W100%0.0
11-24Oklahoma St. (52.5)B12N66-53L0%0.0
11-26Auburn (179.7)SECN71-69L0%0.0
12-3Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACH0-097%23.5
12-6Portland (160.1)WCCA0-036%-4.4
12-13Mississippi St. (192.4)SECH0-065%4.5
12-15Grambling St. (342.8)SWACH0-096%21.6
12-18DePaul (222.3)BEH0-074%7.8
12-21Quinnipiac (167.7)MAACA0-042%-2.5
12-30UC Santa Barbara (90.5)BWH0-043%-2.0
1-3Oregon (72.4)P12A0-015%-12.4
1-8Arizona St. (106.1)P12H0-041%-2.9
1-11Arizona (19.0)P12H0-021%-9.8
1-15Washington (98.1)P12A0-021%-9.5
1-17Washington St. (251.2)P12A0-058%2.5
1-22UCLA (74.9)P12H0-033%-5.3
1-24USC (224.2)P12H0-073%7.4
1-28Arizona St. (106.1)P12A0-020%-10.0
1-30Arizona (19.0)P12A0-08%-17.0
2-5Washington St. (251.2)P12H0-079%9.7
2-8Washington (98.1)P12H0-042%-2.3
2-11UCLA (74.9)P12A0-015%-12.4
2-14USC (224.2)P12A0-051%0.2
2-19Utah (28.1)P12H0-020%-10.3
2-21Colorado (84.2)P12H0-037%-4.0
2-26Stanford (36.9)P12A0-09%-16.3
3-1California (50.3)P12A0-011%-14.9
3-4Oregon (72.4)P12H0-033%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1230.3126.2737.5037.90-7.58-6.35
OregonP120.004.3060.0062.380.001.06
WashingtonP120.004.18100.0057.140.000.60
Washington St.P120.004.1825.0021.98-0.00-2.34
ArizonaP120.004.15100.0075.570.002.12
Arizona St.P120.004.1560.0052.280.000.19
UCLAP120.004.1566.6757.130.000.59
USCP120.004.1550.0029.160.00-1.73
ColoradoP121.252.6575.0060.420.620.55
StanfordP120.002.6380.0070.650.001.08
UtahP120.002.6075.0073.460.001.22
CaliforniaP120.002.6080.0069.920.001.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.840.0021.68-0.00-1.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.8433.3364.74-0.000.54
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.820.0015.91-0.00-1.24
AuburnSEC12.501.7850.0035.570.00-0.52
DePaulBE0.001.7866.6725.490.00-0.87
Mississippi St.SEC0.001.78100.0045.490.00-0.16
Oklahoma St.B1212.501.72100.0058.9912.500.31
Oral RobertsSum12.501.7250.0039.940.00-0.35
PortlandWCC0.001.72100.0050.610.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.001.7250.0056.040.000.21
RiceCUSA12.501.7233.3329.78-4.17-0.70
GonzagaWCC0.000.24100.0088.610.000.18
MissouriSEC1.250.2340.0036.39-0.25-0.06
OklahomaB120.000.2180.0070.540.000.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2050.0025.280.00-0.10
UNLVMWC0.000.2075.0051.700.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.2080.0058.550.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.810.190.0040.56-2.81-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.18100.0069.210.000.07
TCUB120.000.18100.0058.380.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1840.0037.90-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1833.3337.74-0.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1833.3366.19-0.000.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.150.0017.77-0.00-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.150.0063.05-0.000.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.150.0023.83-0.00-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1516.6732.00-0.00-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0041.21-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.1560.0050.240.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.150.0033.90-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.15100.0079.050.000.09
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1583.3384.390.000.10
Portland St.BSky0.000.15100.0057.180.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1575.0053.040.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1460.0059.160.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1475.0068.660.000.05
UC DavisBW0.000.13100.0052.620.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1333.3330.52-0.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1275.0039.180.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0032.17-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1220.0043.38-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1240.0054.55-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0035.47-0.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.1233.3332.18-0.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1225.0037.88-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.1275.0062.620.000.03
VermontAE0.000.1250.0064.890.000.04
BYUWCC0.000.1250.0067.630.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1266.6739.850.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz3.750.1220.0034.53-2.25-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1260.0056.890.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.1266.6754.980.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0089.470.000.09
Kansas St.B120.000.1250.0046.120.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.1220.0041.82-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1260.0039.990.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.1175.0066.060.000.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0925.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3334.34-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0950.0059.430.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0966.6750.170.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3354.85-0.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0950.0060.380.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.090.0038.79-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0980.0074.820.000.04
TulsaAmer3.750.0960.0055.660.750.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0920.0036.57-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.090.0020.51-0.00-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0079.690.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.0975.0061.130.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0950.0052.250.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0966.6746.480.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0975.0045.180.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0053.730.000.01
XavierBE0.000.09100.0078.730.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.0960.0056.260.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0960.0055.000.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0933.3363.17-0.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0018.96-0.00-0.05
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.310.000.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0760.0067.380.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0780.0072.320.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0771.4356.020.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0780.0074.880.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.53-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.51-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0675.0069.240.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0633.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0023.57-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6762.480.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0030.22-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0633.3348.21-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0050.720.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0047.410.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.260.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.81-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0660.0068.620.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.73-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0023.91-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0633.3360.46-0.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.500.0625.0052.42-1.250.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0052.810.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.81-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.440.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0049.08-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0034.06-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0052.540.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3330.24-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0065.930.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0640.0043.47-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0040.88-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.120.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3361.73-0.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0075.980.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.860.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0069.490.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0062.400.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0047.680.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.680.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0069.590.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.03-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.20-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.430.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0030.59-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0680.0074.090.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.340.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.530.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.45-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.390.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.24-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0039.05-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.41-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.130.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0036.14-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.26-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0333.3337.71-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0039.39-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0023.72-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.27-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.400.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0045.460.00-0.00
MercerSC1.560.0350.0054.380.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.110.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0065.590.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6751.730.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0320.0037.96-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0340.0045.07-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA1.560.0375.0055.000.780.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0069.610.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.66-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3367.57-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0070.920.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.90-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0045.170.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.42-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0056.110.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0052.78-0.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.340.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0036.05-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0053.47-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0038.97-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.710.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.46-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.460.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0025.17-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.910.000.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.84-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.66-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3351.25-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.860.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.250.0320.0035.95-0.75-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0375.0057.260.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.180.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.930.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.780.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.53-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.320.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0380.0056.380.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0067.79-0.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0383.3338.760.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3352.29-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.100.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0023.13-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3329.78-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.33-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.15-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0037.69-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.950.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02