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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:58.0
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:15
Current SOS:9
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-817.80.14%
19-922.51.01%
18-1029.46.01%
17-1141.519.05%
16-1255.032.75%
15-1368.028.47%
14-1482.911.14%
13-15100.11.42%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Iona (124.0)MAACH93-73W100%0.0
11-19Rice (294.0)CUSAA69-77W100%0.0
11-21UC Santa Barbara (122.4)BWA59-71W100%0.0
11-24Valparaiso (36.6)HorzH57-63L0%0.0
12-2Loyola Marymount (242.9)WCCH79-70W100%0.0
12-5Nevada (134.6)MWCH66-62W100%0.0
12-12Kansas (5.9)B12A82-67L0%0.0
12-18Cal St. Fullerton (284.0)BWH82-69W100%0.0
12-19Tulsa (67.3)AmerH76-71W100%0.0
12-21Quinnipiac (275.2)MAACH82-61W100%0.0
1-3Oregon (5.2)P12H70-57W100%0.0
1-6Stanford (85.9)P12H72-78L0%0.0
1-9California (43.3)P12H77-71W100%0.0
1-13Colorado (44.5)P12A71-54L0%0.0
1-17Utah (30.0)P12A59-53L0%0.0
1-20UCLA (70.5)P12H73-82L0%0.0
1-24USC (20.7)P12H85-70W100%0.0
1-28Arizona St. (79.4)P12A86-68L0%0.0
1-30Arizona (26.1)P12A80-63L0%0.0
2-4Utah (30.0)P12H71-69W100%0.0
2-6Colorado (44.5)P12H60-56W100%0.0
2-11Stanford (85.9)P12A0-043%-1.9
2-13California (43.3)P12A0-025%-7.3
2-20Oregon (5.2)P12A0-017%-10.4
2-24Washington (62.3)P12H0-058%2.1
2-28Washington St. (183.8)P12H0-082%10.1
3-2USC (20.7)P12A0-021%-8.9
3-5UCLA (70.5)P12A0-034%-4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1226.3326.2656.6354.453.492.34
OregonP123.164.4386.3681.922.302.83
CaliforniaP123.184.4168.1864.591.161.29
ColoradoP125.194.3571.4366.462.221.43
UtahP125.194.3571.4368.742.221.63
StanfordP123.054.3347.3744.17-0.16-0.51
USCP122.694.3181.8275.351.712.19
UCLAP122.694.3154.5551.170.240.10
WashingtonP120.732.6865.2261.740.220.63
Arizona St.P122.752.6552.1750.030.120.00
ArizonaP122.702.6278.2677.631.521.45
Washington St.P120.612.6136.3632.50-0.17-0.91
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.652.0645.0052.26-0.260.09
Cal St. FullertonBW2.601.9736.8433.51-0.68-0.65
IonaMAAC2.601.9463.6462.920.710.50
ValparaisoHorz2.481.8880.9582.431.541.22
Loyola MarymountWCC2.501.8540.9140.00-0.45-0.37
QuinnipiacMAAC2.431.8538.1037.37-0.58-0.47
KansasB122.431.8480.9576.831.510.99
RiceCUSA2.431.8430.0030.74-0.97-0.71
NevadaMWC2.441.8257.8956.550.390.24
TulsaAmer2.431.8268.1863.550.880.49
MonmouthMAAC0.320.3079.1780.720.180.18
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.270.2828.5728.54-0.12-0.12
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2845.4551.34-0.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.330.2572.7371.620.150.11
Cal PolyBW0.220.2530.0034.56-0.09-0.08
UNLVMWC0.260.2450.0055.190.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.260.2163.6462.530.070.05
GonzagaWCC0.200.2178.2676.800.120.11
UC RiversideBW0.230.1945.8341.65-0.02-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1985.7185.390.120.13
New MexicoMWC0.170.1860.8763.000.040.05
Fresno St.MWC0.220.1861.9059.630.050.04
BYUWCC0.310.1866.6769.510.100.07
SMUAmer0.210.1890.9186.160.180.13
TexasB120.110.1866.6762.220.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.270.1872.7372.060.120.08
Wichita St.MVC0.270.1872.7376.360.120.09
HawaiiBW0.230.1684.2181.700.160.10
PacificWCC0.220.1625.0028.89-0.11-0.07
PortlandWCC0.270.1640.0038.51-0.05-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.210.1652.3850.420.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.210.1531.8229.13-0.08-0.06
SeattleWAC0.170.1547.6245.00-0.01-0.02
UC DavisBW0.120.1340.0036.76-0.02-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.170.1354.5550.100.020.00
Green BayHorz0.110.1354.5556.000.010.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1230.4331.18-0.06-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.160.1245.4538.46-0.01-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1244.0045.27-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1254.1754.120.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.1242.8642.01-0.01-0.02
MaristMAAC0.160.1222.7324.79-0.09-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.210.1224.0024.50-0.11-0.06
RiderMAAC0.210.1240.0042.12-0.04-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.1240.9143.34-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.1264.0064.140.020.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.1256.5257.280.010.02
WyomingMWC0.170.1243.4842.49-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.110.1272.7366.460.050.04
Iowa St.B120.160.1273.9170.050.080.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1238.1037.70-0.04-0.03
TempleAmer0.160.1263.6459.840.040.02
Texas TechB120.160.1259.0953.170.030.01
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1243.4842.00-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.160.1273.9171.560.070.05
Portland St.BSky0.120.1031.5837.72-0.04-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.160.0915.0015.35-0.11-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.0942.1145.70-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.0956.5256.320.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0934.7840.93-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0968.0067.980.020.03
BelmontOVC0.160.0966.6766.540.050.03
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0945.0046.12-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.160.0970.8368.570.070.03
OklahomaB120.050.0986.9682.610.040.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0910.0013.14-0.08-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.0928.5726.96-0.07-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0945.8342.26-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.110.0945.8339.31-0.01-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0954.5554.950.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.0952.9452.160.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0652.1755.940.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0623.8126.57-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0631.5831.76-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0634.7834.54-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0645.0046.78-0.01-0.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0686.9686.360.040.05
AkronMAC0.110.0681.8280.030.070.04
VermontAE0.110.0652.0054.870.000.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.065.007.23-0.10-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0671.4368.720.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.640.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.110.0633.3333.02-0.04-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0633.3335.08-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0656.5262.790.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.110.0656.5256.630.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.11-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0652.1751.940.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.0630.4332.36-0.04-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.73-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.110.0639.1338.33-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.0652.1751.960.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.110.0639.1337.73-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0659.0953.040.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.19-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.0640.9136.60-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0670.8370.840.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.490.020.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.069.0912.25-0.08-0.04
DukeACC0.100.0675.0071.700.050.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.320.020.01
HoustonAmer0.100.0669.5766.530.040.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.210.000.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.370.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0681.8276.750.070.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.300.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.390.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0618.1821.06-0.07-0.03
Penn St.B100.100.0650.0046.710.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.100.0633.3332.31-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0652.3845.690.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0682.6179.560.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.64-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0660.0057.950.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0621.7422.99-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.750.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0617.6529.21-0.03-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0682.6178.660.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0654.5554.490.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.42-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0617.3920.66-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0682.6178.070.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0643.4840.57-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0691.3084.340.040.04
YaleIvy0.050.0673.6874.680.020.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0360.0060.100.010.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0321.7423.66-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.35-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0325.0022.75-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0377.2776.870.030.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.79-0.04-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0376.0076.300.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.220.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.570.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.05-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.33-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.14-0.04-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.9145.29-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.19-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0325.0026.76-0.03-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0330.0029.25-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.12-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0350.0051.180.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0371.4369.420.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.17-0.03-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0354.1755.070.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.06-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0338.8938.50-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0382.6179.410.040.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0366.6770.550.020.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0313.6413.62-0.04-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0345.4546.27-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.880.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.79-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.49-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.02-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.8760.780.000.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.030.040.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0340.0045.50-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.450.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0338.8937.62-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.140.040.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.67-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0356.5260.010.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.690.020.01
CreightonBE0.050.0362.5059.800.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.39-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.200.010.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.38-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.02