live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Oregon St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:268.9
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:218
Current Record:2-6
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:334



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16140.70.03%
13-17159.30.06%
12-18182.20.40%
11-19201.91.28%
10-20218.84.31%
9-21237.410.27%
8-22254.317.92%
7-23269.923.78%
6-24283.021.69%
5-25295.113.98%
4-26304.75.14%
3-27312.61.06%
2-28318.30.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACH78-58W100%0.0
11-13UTSA (307.7)CUSAH72-64W100%0.0
11-16Lamar (300.5)SlndH60-63L0%0.0
11-18Nevada (46.4)MWCA83-58L0%0.0
11-22Tulsa (188.2)AmerA75-64L0%0.0
11-25Fresno St. (197.2)MWCH58-63L0%0.0
12-1Mississippi St. (152.0)SECA74-57L0%0.0
12-3Charlotte (177.6)CUSAA69-66L0%0.0
12-11Savannah St. (346.4)MEACH0-094%18.5
12-16Long Beach St. (199.9)BWH0-054%1.2
12-18Portland (123.5)WCCH0-039%-3.4
12-21Kent St. (194.9)MACH0-046%-1.1
12-28USC (37.0)P12H0-013%-13.2
12-30UCLA (15.7)P12H0-05%-19.6
1-4Washington St. (225.1)P12A0-037%-4.1
1-7Washington (103.4)P12A0-011%-14.7
1-14Oregon (34.2)P12A0-04%-21.5
1-19Stanford (55.4)P12H0-020%-10.0
1-21California (71.4)P12H0-021%-9.9
1-26Colorado (74.9)P12A0-08%-17.1
1-28Utah (87.8)P12A0-09%-16.0
2-2Arizona (35.7)P12H0-013%-13.4
2-4Arizona St. (149.6)P12H0-040%-3.0
2-9USC (37.0)P12A0-05%-19.5
2-12UCLA (15.7)P12A0-02%-25.9
2-16Colorado (74.9)P12H0-018%-10.8
2-19Utah (87.8)P12H0-021%-9.7
2-22Stanford (55.4)P12A0-09%-16.3
2-24California (71.4)P12A0-09%-16.1
3-4Oregon (34.2)P12H0-010%-15.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Oregon St.P1228.5826.2518.7517.66-17.86-16.98
OregonP120.004.1975.0070.760.001.74
ColoradoP120.004.1075.0060.890.000.89
UtahP120.004.0975.0057.690.000.63
CaliforniaP120.004.0785.7160.580.000.86
StanfordP120.004.0766.6756.030.000.49
UCLAP120.004.06100.0086.000.002.93
USCP120.004.01100.0075.690.002.06
WashingtonP120.002.5157.1451.110.000.06
Washington St.P120.002.4642.8627.75-0.00-1.09
ArizonaP120.002.4575.0067.760.000.87
Arizona St.P120.002.4562.5039.820.00-0.50
Fresno St.MWC7.611.8660.0037.811.52-0.45
Prairie View A&MSWAC7.681.8216.6732.36-5.12-0.64
UTSACUSA7.741.7828.5730.59-3.32-0.69
PortlandWCC0.001.7850.0053.830.000.14
NevadaMWC6.251.7575.0071.033.120.74
LamarSlnd7.611.7540.0039.29-1.52-0.38
Long Beach St.BW0.001.750.0038.00-0.00-0.42
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.720.0019.12-0.00-1.06
CharlotteCUSA6.251.7066.6749.662.08-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.001.6757.1454.380.000.15
Mississippi St.SEC6.251.6771.4346.242.68-0.13
TulsaAmer6.251.6740.0035.75-1.25-0.47
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2371.4360.540.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2360.0069.120.000.09
Boise St.MWC0.390.2242.8656.04-0.060.03
Cal PolyBW0.390.2242.8641.51-0.06-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.200.0032.52-0.00-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1928.5742.90-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.190.0033.85-0.00-0.06
SMUAmer0.000.1766.6766.860.000.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1750.0071.020.000.07
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1750.0041.490.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1757.1448.500.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.790.17100.0089.330.790.13
BYUWCC0.000.1762.5066.900.000.06
PacificWCC0.350.1742.8646.14-0.05-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1762.5043.800.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1637.5031.23-0.00-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.000.1650.0054.070.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1666.6766.180.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.520.1585.7153.560.370.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.390.1566.6757.300.130.02
New OrleansSlnd0.520.1440.0041.93-0.10-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.1466.6754.050.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1462.5058.450.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.1425.0048.10-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1442.8633.23-0.00-0.05
XavierBE0.000.1287.5070.890.000.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1237.5035.09-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1225.0020.78-0.00-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.390.1220.0035.47-0.23-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1125.0031.41-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.1171.4354.560.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1133.3332.35-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.1157.1451.790.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.110.0034.27-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1128.5733.77-0.00-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1140.0041.12-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.1157.1438.680.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1150.0045.970.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0091.920.000.09
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6736.03-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.1187.5082.800.000.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0017.13-0.00-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.380.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0074.440.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0975.0061.490.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0975.0055.500.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.390.090.0035.95-0.39-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.390.0920.0041.92-0.23-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.450.0977.7849.900.25-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0971.4354.860.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0933.3330.44-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0971.4368.050.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0975.0071.470.000.04
HoustonAmer0.450.0985.7178.280.320.05
UCFAmer0.390.0985.7176.240.280.05
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0916.6730.34-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0942.8650.12-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0912.5023.93-0.00-0.05
Texas St.SB0.390.0950.0043.390.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0950.0052.760.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0933.3339.61-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0987.5075.860.000.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.080.0022.01-0.00-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.0842.8650.06-0.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0025.23-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0816.6739.49-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.080.0034.81-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.350.0833.3352.21-0.120.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.350.0833.3346.38-0.12-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0850.0066.300.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0039.53-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0017.61-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.34-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.12-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.33-0.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.360.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5076.230.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.39-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.240.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.520.0675.0086.710.260.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0620.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.11-0.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0066.100.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.520.0642.8660.54-0.070.01
DavidsonA100.450.0671.4363.170.190.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.590.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5729.95-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.740.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.160.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.450.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0048.500.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0063.27-0.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.850.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.82-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.91-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.990.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0687.5078.510.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0557.1442.530.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0575.0070.180.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0540.0043.41-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.690.0557.1464.030.100.02
MichiganB100.000.0575.0066.460.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0557.1444.890.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.430.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.520.0312.5029.15-0.39-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.450.0316.6729.80-0.30-0.01
DrakeMVC0.520.030.0019.67-0.52-0.02
ElonCAA0.450.0371.4359.470.190.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.760.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.520.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.450.0312.5030.68-0.33-0.01
Little RockSB0.520.0366.6761.330.170.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0375.0066.410.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.310.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.520.030.0022.31-0.52-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.450.0344.4441.30-0.05-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.390.0342.8645.44-0.06-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.390.0350.0060.620.000.01
LehighPat0.390.0342.8666.67-0.060.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0312.5023.75-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.450.0377.7876.040.250.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.41-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.350.0342.8627.96-0.05-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.84-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.350.0385.7177.150.250.01
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00