Jacksonville St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	216.0
Current RPI:	216
Expected SOS:	215
Current SOS:	215
Current Record:	13-17
Expected Record:	13-17
Current Conf Record:	9-9
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-5
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	228
Expected OOC SOS:	133

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-17	216.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Marshall (43.0)	CUSA	A	58-44	L	0%
11-15	Cincinnati (44.0)	BE	A	73-59	L	0%
11-19	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	H	78-65	W	100%
11-25	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	A	66-61	L	0%
11-27	Weber St. (70.0)	BSky	N	69-61	L	0%
12-1	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	A	50-48	L	0%
12-10	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	N	50-55	W	100%
12-11	Tulane (250.0)	CUSA	A	59-51	L	0%
12-17	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	H	53-59	L	0%
12-28	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	N	78-55	W	100%
12-29	Colorado St. (29.0)	MWC	N	79-56	L	0%
12-31	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	A	66-61	L	0%
1-2	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	A	74-56	L	0%
1-5	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	H	55-63	L	0%
1-7	Tennessee St. (107.0)	OVC	H	72-65	W	100%
1-12	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	A	66-55	L	0%
1-14	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	A	60-57	L	0%
1-19	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	A	62-63	W	100%
1-26	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	H	63-45	W	100%
1-28	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	H	76-65	W	100%
1-30	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	H	77-82	L	0%
2-2	Tennessee Martin (326.0)	OVC	A	74-85	W	100%
2-4	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	H	68-76	L	0%
2-8	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	A	55-69	W	100%
2-14	Tennessee St. (107.0)	OVC	A	69-64	L	0%
2-18	Presbyterian (245.0)	BSth	H	67-48	W	100%
2-23	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	H	69-59	W	100%
2-25	Tennessee Martin (326.0)	OVC	H	77-46	W	100%
2-29	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	A	70-75	W	100%
3-1	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	N	68-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Jacksonville St.	OVC	26.42	26.42	44.70	44.70	-2.80	-2.80
Morehead St.	OVC	5.73	5.73	48.15	48.15	-0.21	-0.21
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.15	4.15	57.14	57.14	0.59	0.59
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.13	4.13	60.71	60.71	0.89	0.89
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.12	4.12	44.44	44.44	-0.46	-0.46
Austin Peay	OVC	4.11	4.11	34.48	34.48	-1.28	-1.28
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.04	4.04	30.43	30.43	-1.58	-1.58
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.02	4.02	7.41	7.41	-3.43	-3.43
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	3.33	3.33	57.14	57.14	0.48	0.48
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.59	2.59	44.83	44.83	-0.27	-0.27
Murray St.	OVC	2.58	2.58	96.30	96.30	2.39	2.39
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.48	2.48	38.46	38.46	-0.57	-0.57
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.88	1.88	35.71	35.71	-0.54	-0.54
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.84	1.84	34.38	34.38	-0.57	-0.57
Cincinnati	BE	1.80	1.80	69.70	69.70	0.71	0.71
Southern	SWAC	1.80	1.80	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Marshall	CUSA	1.78	1.78	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.75	1.75	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Tulane	CUSA	1.72	1.72	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Presbyterian	BSth	1.72	1.72	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	62.07	62.07	0.40	0.40
Weber St.	BSky	1.67	1.67	77.78	77.78	0.93	0.93
Lipscomb	ASun	0.37	0.37	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
Belmont	ASun	0.32	0.32	78.79	78.79	0.19	0.19
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.25	0.25	19.23	19.23	-0.15	-0.15
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.25	0.25	63.64	63.64	0.07	0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.22	0.22	6.67	6.67	-0.19	-0.19
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.22	0.22	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Ball St.	MAC	0.21	0.21	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.20	0.20	23.08	23.08	-0.11	-0.11
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.20	0.20	34.62	34.62	-0.06	-0.06
Lamar	Slnd	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.20	0.20	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.20	0.20	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.20	0.20	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Grambling	SWAC	0.17	0.17	14.29	14.29	-0.12	-0.12
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.17	0.17	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	79.31	79.31	0.07	0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
California	P12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	6.45	6.45	-0.07	-0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	11.11	11.11	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01