live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:309.0
Current RPI:309
Expected SOS:215
Current SOS:215
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:335
Expected OOC SOS:267



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23309.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Central Michigan (156.0)MACA89-83L0%0.0
11-18Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA71-62L0%0.0
11-20Winthrop (130.0)BSthA80-69L0%0.0
11-22UAB (88.0)CUSAA61-55L0%0.0
11-24Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH69-73L0%0.0
11-27Chicago St. (348.0)WACN68-65W100%0.0
11-28Chattanooga (50.0)SCN52-62L0%0.0
12-1Samford (252.0)SCH71-77L0%0.0
12-5Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH82-86L0%0.0
12-13Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH60-63L0%0.0
12-18Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA77-60L0%0.0
12-21Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH79-76W100%0.0
12-29Alabama (73.0)SECA67-59L0%0.0
12-31SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH72-67W100%0.0
1-2Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH64-75L0%0.0
1-7Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA73-54L0%0.0
1-9Murray St. (169.0)OVCA69-54L0%0.0
1-13Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA60-74W100%0.0
1-16Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH82-60W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA91-88L0%0.0
1-24Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA74-78W100%0.0
1-28Belmont (98.0)OVCH63-72L0%0.0
1-30Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH53-78L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH58-68L0%0.0
2-10Belmont (98.0)OVCA81-73L0%0.0
2-13Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA72-70L0%0.0
2-20Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA61-46L0%0.0
2-25Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH54-76L0%0.0
2-27Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH71-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jacksonville St.OVC26.1526.1520.1420.14-15.61-15.61
Morehead St.OVC4.164.1659.2659.260.770.77
Tennessee TechOVC4.154.1557.6957.690.640.64
BelmontOVC4.134.1360.7160.710.890.89
Tennessee St.OVC4.124.1261.5461.540.950.95
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.114.1142.8642.86-0.59-0.59
Austin PeayOVC2.592.5946.8846.88-0.16-0.16
Murray St.OVC2.442.4450.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC2.412.4156.6756.670.320.32
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.372.3711.5411.54-1.82-1.82
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.342.3437.0437.04-0.61-0.61
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.312.3122.2222.22-1.29-1.29
Alabama St.SWAC1.931.9339.2939.29-0.41-0.41
ChattanoogaSC1.901.9083.8783.871.291.29
Alabama A&MSWAC1.851.8533.3333.33-0.62-0.62
SamfordSC1.831.8336.6736.67-0.49-0.49
Virginia TechACC1.781.7856.2556.250.220.22
WinthropBSth1.781.7867.8667.860.640.64
UABCUSA1.781.7880.0080.001.071.07
Loyola MarymountWCC1.761.7641.3841.38-0.30-0.30
AlabamaSEC1.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
Chicago St.WAC1.751.753.573.57-1.63-1.63
Northern ColoradoBSky1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
Central MichiganMAC1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
JacksonvilleASun1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
LipscombASun0.380.3832.2632.26-0.14-0.14
East Tennessee St.SC0.310.3165.6265.620.100.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.260.2631.0331.03-0.10-0.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.2146.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.2114.2914.29-0.15-0.15
Ball St.MAC0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.2070.9770.970.090.09
MarshallCUSA0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1822.8622.86-0.10-0.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.1824.2424.24-0.09-0.09
VMISC0.160.1622.2222.22-0.09-0.09
Green BayHorz0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Saint LouisA100.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1480.0080.000.090.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
WoffordSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1218.5218.52-0.08-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
LongwoodBSth0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
RadfordBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0929.1729.17-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0957.6957.690.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
TroySB0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00