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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:185.3
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:270
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:9-7
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:164
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14185.3100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tulsa (119.3)AmerA73-84W100%0.0
11-13Missouri St. (217.0)MVCA91-65L0%0.0
11-16Western Kentucky (224.7)CUSAA74-67L0%0.0
11-18TCU (66.2)B12A79-60L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Fullerton (300.7)BWN61-38W100%0.0
11-26Northern Arizona (336.2)BSkyN63-76W100%0.0
11-29Alabama St. (339.7)SWACA69-72W100%0.0
12-4Samford (176.8)SCA81-77L0%0.0
12-10Louisiana Monroe (289.9)SBA88-83L0%0.0
12-12Maryland (32.1)B10A92-66L0%0.0
12-14Howard (340.3)MEACA59-72W100%0.0
12-18USC Upstate (221.8)ASunA66-67W100%0.0
12-21Chattanooga (111.0)SCA73-57L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee Martin (163.3)OVCA72-90W100%0.0
12-31Eastern Illinois (269.4)OVCA56-57W100%0.0
1-5Murray St. (241.3)OVCH63-76L0%0.0
1-7Austin Peay (260.3)OVCH71-68W100%0.0
1-14Tennessee Tech (263.9)OVCA59-74W100%0.0
1-19Belmont (55.4)OVCA77-60L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee St. (152.3)OVCA79-86W100%0.0
1-26Eastern Kentucky (245.0)OVCH52-57L0%0.0
1-28Morehead St. (188.8)OVCH69-72L0%0.0
2-1Southeast Missouri St. (291.2)OVCH74-62W100%0.0
2-4SIU Edwardsville (334.1)OVCA61-72W100%0.0
2-9Belmont (55.4)OVCH53-66L0%0.0
2-11Tennessee St. (152.3)OVCH63-57W100%0.0
2-18Tennessee Tech (263.9)OVCH78-79L0%0.0
2-23Eastern Kentucky (245.0)OVCA68-65L0%0.0
2-25Morehead St. (188.8)OVCA61-70W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jacksonville St.OVC26.2226.1958.9458.944.694.68
Tennessee St.OVC4.194.1960.0060.000.840.84
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.174.1729.6329.63-1.70-1.70
BelmontOVC4.154.1579.1779.172.422.42
Tennessee TechOVC4.144.1433.3333.33-1.38-1.38
Morehead St.OVC4.134.1344.0044.00-0.50-0.50
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.402.4042.8642.86-0.34-0.34
Austin PeayOVC2.372.3733.3333.33-0.79-0.79
Tennessee MartinOVC2.352.3564.2964.290.670.67
Murray St.OVC2.342.3440.7440.74-0.43-0.43
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.342.3418.5218.52-1.48-1.48
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.342.3446.1546.15-0.18-0.18
Western KentuckyCUSA1.911.9142.8644.00-0.27-0.23
Alabama St.SWAC1.911.9128.0029.27-0.84-0.79
Northern ArizonaBSky1.821.8225.9325.93-0.88-0.88
ChattanoogaSC1.821.8161.5462.500.420.45
SamfordSC1.791.7951.8551.300.070.05
Missouri St.MVC1.781.7848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB1.761.7520.0021.33-1.05-1.01
Cal St. FullertonBW1.761.7550.0050.370.000.01
MarylandB101.761.7574.0773.430.850.82
TCUB121.761.7555.5655.420.200.19
HowardMEAC1.751.7519.2321.25-1.08-1.01
TulsaAmer1.721.7251.8550.740.060.03
USC UpstateASun1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.540.5457.1457.140.080.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.240.247.698.10-0.21-0.20
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.220.2285.7186.430.160.16
MarshallCUSA0.210.2153.5754.970.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.210.2082.7682.760.140.13
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.1878.5778.180.110.10
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.190.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.180.1865.5265.520.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1866.6765.850.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1655.1752.800.020.01
UC DavisBW0.160.1659.2658.390.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1665.5265.520.050.05
The CitadelSC0.130.1525.9325.45-0.06-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.160.1532.1430.72-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1226.6727.00-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.130.1251.8551.300.000.00
UMKCWAC0.120.1244.4445.62-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.1266.6767.530.030.04
MercerSC0.090.1242.8643.57-0.01-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1270.3769.030.050.05
VMISC0.130.1215.3816.50-0.09-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1221.4322.56-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.120.1258.6258.150.020.02
IndianaB100.120.1255.1753.960.010.01
IUPUISum0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.090.1256.0054.920.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.130.1261.5460.990.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.130.1246.1545.04-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.130.1234.4833.87-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.130.1242.3141.71-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.120.1258.6258.500.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.3142.27-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1167.8666.120.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.100.0950.0048.750.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.090.0951.7250.150.000.00
PurdueB100.090.0979.3178.860.060.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.4833.33-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.0942.3142.60-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0948.2847.22-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.100.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0929.6328.06-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0051.170.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.100.0945.8345.20-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0911.1111.98-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0921.4322.28-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.090.0960.7159.770.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0919.2322.18-0.06-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0919.2319.72-0.06-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0940.0042.28-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.1547.90-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0932.0030.44-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0914.8115.93-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.060.0962.0761.020.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0960.7163.340.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.090.001.83-0.09-0.08
OhioMAC0.090.0965.3866.640.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0986.2185.440.070.06
DePaulBE0.090.0931.0330.04-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.090.0957.1457.010.010.01
TexasB120.090.0934.4834.12-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0958.6257.980.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0986.2186.520.040.06
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0986.6786.670.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0964.2964.650.030.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0779.3179.350.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0767.8668.280.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0630.7732.97-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0640.0041.36-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0675.8674.140.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0637.9338.88-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0049.680.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0653.5753.570.000.00
NJITASun0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0650.0049.020.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0653.5755.070.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0624.0023.98-0.04-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0616.0016.70-0.02-0.04
CampbellBSth0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0644.4445.74-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.7159.700.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.0760.370.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.17-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0654.1752.440.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0651.8550.780.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0625.9326.04-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0659.2658.100.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0653.5752.450.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0636.0040.25-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0657.6957.810.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0679.3179.060.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0633.3335.14-0.01-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0617.2420.08-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0676.0077.290.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0629.6331.85-0.01-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.0056.310.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0682.7682.760.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0676.9276.820.020.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0625.9325.17-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.070.0679.3178.000.040.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0611.1111.53-0.05-0.04
MichiganB100.060.0665.5265.140.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0655.5656.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0652.0053.480.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.8668.870.020.02
BaylorB120.060.0678.5777.150.040.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0644.8343.04-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0671.4370.580.030.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0652.0053.420.000.00
IowaB100.060.0655.1754.140.010.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0667.8666.170.020.02
KansasB120.060.0689.6688.490.050.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0662.0761.430.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0675.8674.340.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0665.2266.440.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0628.0030.25-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0655.1754.740.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0635.7135.48-0.01-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.030.0642.8642.28-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0636.0035.08-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.9325.22-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.030.0617.8618.08-0.02-0.04
UCFAmer0.060.0665.5266.270.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0679.3178.510.040.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0644.4445.02-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0052.300.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.1456.750.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0375.8673.450.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0342.8642.02-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0381.4880.740.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0367.8666.440.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.7681.210.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0324.0025.26-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.5753.810.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0341.6741.50-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0323.0823.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0026.00-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0334.4834.29-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0379.3177.540.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0355.1754.140.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0340.0041.67-0.01-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0369.5767.060.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0382.7682.930.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0346.1546.81-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0380.7781.310.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0340.0038.77-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0330.4331.29-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.0035.98-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0340.0039.27-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0330.7730.93-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0333.3332.49-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.0072.040.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0348.1548.26-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0348.2848.65-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0348.1547.91-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0340.7439.61-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0358.3359.230.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0368.9767.270.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0313.7913.43-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0348.2847.91-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0360.7161.450.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.990.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.4173.260.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.0057.060.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0375.8676.270.020.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0314.8114.35-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0323.0822.49-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0366.6765.550.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0389.6689.660.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.10-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0337.0436.94-0.01-0.01