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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:149.0
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:248
Current SOS:248
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:162
Expected OOC SOS:299



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14149.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tulsa (134.0)AmerA73-84W100%0.0
11-13Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA91-65L0%0.0
11-16Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA74-67L0%0.0
11-18TCU (67.0)B12A79-60L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWN61-38W100%0.0
11-26Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyN63-76W100%0.0
11-29Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA69-72W100%0.0
12-4Samford (170.0)SCA81-77L0%0.0
12-10Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA88-83L0%0.0
12-12Maryland (36.0)B10A92-66L0%0.0
12-14Howard (337.0)MEACA59-72W100%0.0
12-18USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA66-67W100%0.0
12-21Chattanooga (139.0)SCA73-57L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA72-90W100%0.0
12-31Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA56-57W100%0.0
1-5Murray St. (230.0)OVCH63-76L0%0.0
1-7Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH71-68W100%0.0
1-14Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA59-74W100%0.0
1-19Belmont (61.0)OVCA77-60L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCA79-86W100%0.0
1-26Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH52-57L0%0.0
1-28Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH69-72L0%0.0
2-1Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH74-62W100%0.0
2-4SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA61-72W100%0.0
2-9Belmont (61.0)OVCH53-66L0%0.0
2-11Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH63-57W100%0.0
2-18Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH78-79L0%0.0
2-23Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA68-65L0%0.0
2-25Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA61-70W100%0.0
3-2Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCN74-51W100%0.0
3-3Belmont (61.0)OVCA59-65W100%0.0
3-4Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCN55-66W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jacksonville St.OVC26.3426.3463.1063.106.906.90
BelmontOVC5.365.3679.1779.173.133.13
Tennessee St.OVC3.933.9357.6957.690.610.61
Tennessee TechOVC3.873.8732.1432.14-1.38-1.38
Eastern KentuckyOVC3.863.8629.6329.63-1.57-1.57
Morehead St.OVC3.863.8642.3142.31-0.59-0.59
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.853.8544.8344.83-0.40-0.40
Tennessee MartinOVC3.783.7865.5265.521.171.17
Murray St.OVC2.402.4043.3343.33-0.32-0.32
Austin PeayOVC2.262.2633.3333.33-0.75-0.75
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.232.2318.5218.52-1.41-1.41
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.232.2346.1546.15-0.17-0.17
Western KentuckyCUSA1.761.7645.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Alabama St.SWAC1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
Missouri St.MVC1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky1.641.6426.6726.67-0.77-0.77
ChattanoogaSC1.641.6457.1457.140.230.23
SamfordSC1.621.6251.6151.610.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB1.591.5920.0020.00-0.95-0.95
Cal St. FullertonBW1.591.5953.5753.570.110.11
TCUB121.591.5953.1253.120.100.10
HowardMEAC1.591.5925.8125.81-0.77-0.77
MarylandB101.591.5973.3373.330.740.74
TulsaAmer1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun1.561.5648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun0.530.5356.6756.670.070.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.220.2287.8887.880.160.16
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.216.906.90-0.18-0.18
Arkansas St.SB0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.200.2081.2581.250.120.12
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.190.1955.8855.880.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
WoffordSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
UC DavisBW0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
The CitadelSC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
VMISC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
WashingtonP120.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
IUPUISum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0929.4129.41-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01