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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:304.0
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:295
Current Record:10-19
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:5-11
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-11
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:292



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19304.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marshall (296.0)CUSAA74-55L0%0.0
11-17Louisville (21.0)ACCA88-39L0%0.0
11-19Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA60-46L0%0.0
11-25Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA61-67W100%0.0
11-28Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH74-71W100%0.0
12-3Winthrop (210.0)BSthH79-76W100%0.0
12-6Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA80-55L0%0.0
12-14Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH79-67W100%0.0
12-16UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH64-55W100%0.0
12-20Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA69-60L0%0.0
12-22Air Force (240.0)MWCA66-65L0%0.0
12-27Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA75-61L0%0.0
1-1SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA73-57L0%0.0
1-3Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA59-50L0%0.0
1-8Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH71-59W100%0.0
1-11Murray St. (63.0)OVCH57-84L0%0.0
1-14Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH52-69L0%0.0
1-17Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCA55-52L0%0.0
1-22Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH71-67W100%0.0
1-24Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH63-66L0%0.0
1-29Belmont (105.0)OVCA103-82L0%0.0
1-31Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA45-43L0%0.0
2-4Memphis (83.0)AmerA74-48L0%0.0
2-7Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA72-59L0%0.0
2-11Belmont (105.0)OVCH72-70W100%0.0
2-14Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH82-68W100%0.0
2-21Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH55-50W100%0.0
2-26Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA63-57L0%0.0
2-28Morehead St. (201.0)OVCA87-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jacksonville St.OVC26.1526.1533.0133.01-8.89-8.89
Morehead St.OVC4.234.2343.3343.33-0.56-0.56
BelmontOVC4.234.2368.9768.971.601.60
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.184.1861.5461.540.960.96
Tennessee St.OVC4.104.107.417.41-3.49-3.49
Tennessee TechOVC4.094.0934.6234.62-1.26-1.26
Murray St.OVC2.472.4782.7682.761.621.62
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.442.4450.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.412.4137.0437.04-0.62-0.62
Tennessee MartinOVC2.382.3855.5655.560.260.26
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.352.3536.0036.00-0.66-0.66
Austin PeayOVC2.322.3222.2222.22-1.29-1.29
Savannah St.MEAC1.931.9325.0025.00-0.96-0.96
MarshallCUSA1.861.8627.5927.59-0.84-0.84
Alabama A&MSWAC1.851.8529.6329.63-0.75-0.75
WinthropBSth1.851.8557.1457.140.260.26
Cleveland St.Horz1.841.8451.7251.720.060.06
LouisvilleACC1.811.8174.1974.190.880.88
Alabama St.SWAC1.791.7961.5461.540.410.41
UNC AshevilleBSth1.781.7844.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Air ForceMWC1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
DartmouthIvy1.721.7251.8551.850.060.06
JacksonvilleASun1.721.7221.4321.43-0.99-0.99
MemphisAmer1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
Northern ColoradoBSky1.721.7244.4444.44-0.19-0.19
LipscombASun0.350.3539.2939.29-0.08-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.240.2434.3834.38-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
LongwoodBSth0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1883.3383.330.120.12
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1752.9452.940.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1618.7518.75-0.10-0.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.160.000.00-0.16-0.16
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
LibertyBSth0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.140.1490.6290.620.120.12
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.126.906.90-0.10-0.10
UC DavisBW0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1275.8675.860.060.06
UABCUSA0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
UNLVMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Green BayHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
OaklandHorz0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
HoustonAmer0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02