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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:189.2
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:263
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-756.00.01%
21-872.30.03%
20-981.20.13%
19-1096.00.58%
18-11109.51.81%
17-12123.64.29%
16-13139.28.95%
15-14156.713.83%
14-15175.717.02%
13-16194.618.35%
12-17215.015.45%
11-18234.510.55%
10-19253.55.75%
9-20270.62.33%
8-21290.00.72%
7-22302.40.17%
6-23316.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tulsa (189.4)AmerA73-84W100%0.0
11-13Missouri St. (147.4)MVCA91-65L0%0.0
11-16Western Kentucky (249.8)CUSAA74-67L0%0.0
11-18TCU (48.5)B12A79-60L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWN61-38W100%0.0
11-26Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyN63-76W100%0.0
11-29Alabama St. (329.0)SWACA69-72W100%0.0
12-4Samford (165.0)SCA81-77L0%0.0
12-10Louisiana Monroe (263.6)SBA0-051%0.4
12-12Maryland (87.4)B10A0-013%-13.7
12-14Howard (267.2)MEACA0-052%0.7
12-18USC Upstate (262.6)ASunA0-056%1.7
12-21Chattanooga (78.8)SCA0-014%-13.1
12-29Tennessee Martin (167.9)OVCA0-039%-3.5
12-31Eastern Illinois (232.4)OVCA0-038%-3.5
1-5Murray St. (138.9)OVCH0-041%-2.6
1-7Austin Peay (230.6)OVCH0-068%5.6
1-14Tennessee Tech (304.2)OVCA0-056%1.9
1-19Belmont (107.2)OVCA0-021%-9.5
1-21Tennessee St. (96.9)OVCA0-022%-9.1
1-26Eastern Kentucky (155.6)OVCH0-053%1.0
1-28Morehead St. (224.4)OVCH0-061%3.2
2-1Southeast Missouri St. (269.3)OVCH0-070%6.3
2-4SIU Edwardsville (212.0)OVCA0-048%-0.6
2-9Belmont (107.2)OVCH0-039%-3.3
2-11Tennessee St. (96.9)OVCH0-041%-2.9
2-18Tennessee Tech (304.2)OVCH0-075%8.2
2-23Eastern Kentucky (155.6)OVCA0-033%-5.3
2-25Morehead St. (224.4)OVCA0-040%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jacksonville St.OVC28.5626.1966.6753.849.522.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.354.1885.7170.030.251.68
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.394.1650.0050.540.000.04
BelmontOVC0.394.1557.1464.080.061.17
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.1425.0027.26-0.00-1.88
Morehead St.OVC0.004.1316.6738.00-0.00-0.99
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.4042.8638.65-0.00-0.55
Austin PeayOVC0.002.3733.3336.85-0.00-0.62
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.3475.0055.270.000.25
Murray St.OVC0.002.3450.0061.030.000.52
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.3450.0042.420.00-0.36
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.3457.1449.180.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA6.641.9128.5732.87-2.85-0.65
Alabama St.SWAC7.881.9114.2934.50-5.63-0.59
Northern ArizonaBSky6.641.8212.5020.97-4.98-1.06
ChattanoogaSC0.001.8175.0074.160.000.88
Missouri St.MVC6.251.7950.0057.430.000.27
SamfordSC6.251.7957.1454.970.890.18
Louisiana MonroeSB0.001.7516.6729.16-0.00-0.73
Cal St. FullertonBW6.641.7533.3334.85-2.21-0.53
MarylandB100.001.7587.5058.060.000.28
TCUB126.641.75100.0059.616.640.34
HowardMEAC0.001.7516.6743.38-0.00-0.23
TulsaAmer6.251.7260.0039.091.25-0.38
USC UpstateASun0.001.7244.4441.44-0.00-0.30
LipscombASun0.000.5311.1132.47-0.00-0.19
Alabama A&MSWAC0.620.240.0013.32-0.62-0.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.2187.5075.730.000.11
MarshallCUSA0.000.2162.5053.550.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.390.1925.0030.02-0.20-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1883.3379.920.000.11
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1850.0045.130.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.180.0034.69-0.00-0.06
FurmanSC0.000.1842.8657.52-0.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.450.1875.0066.120.220.06
Illinois St.MVC0.450.1860.0067.820.090.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1655.5646.770.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1657.1453.860.000.01
UC DavisBW0.350.1650.0045.660.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.1550.0030.320.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.1537.5025.74-0.00-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1557.1449.420.00-0.00
WashingtonP122.080.1557.1452.140.300.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1312.5030.51-0.00-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.1337.5048.85-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1262.5060.090.000.02
TroySB0.390.1242.8636.07-0.06-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1255.5649.660.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1271.4355.680.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1287.5074.510.000.06
MercerSC0.000.1242.8647.68-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.1250.0044.180.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1271.4355.570.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1228.5723.02-0.00-0.07
VMISC0.000.120.0016.56-0.00-0.08
AuburnSEC0.000.1285.7157.280.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1233.3351.57-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1242.8650.98-0.000.00
Little RockSB0.520.1266.6761.400.170.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.1250.0061.350.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.1240.0058.88-0.000.02
UNLVMWC1.630.1262.5042.780.41-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1271.4354.010.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1287.5061.660.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1262.5050.630.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0942.8650.82-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0925.0026.46-0.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0016.33-0.00-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0937.5044.42-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0928.5731.07-0.00-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0975.0048.980.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0977.7877.640.000.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.350.0933.3332.79-0.12-0.03
Saint LouisA100.390.0925.0023.99-0.20-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.0971.4357.210.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.390.0987.5082.440.290.06
GeorgetownBE0.000.0955.5647.600.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.740.0937.5031.15-0.18-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0966.6766.650.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0937.5028.47-0.00-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0044.700.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.520.0977.7886.650.290.07
Portland St.BSky0.450.0940.0043.88-0.09-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0025.31-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.90-0.00-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0950.0050.170.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.390.0912.5031.01-0.29-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0925.0031.76-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0022.47-0.00-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0928.5738.92-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0966.6751.140.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0912.5029.77-0.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0960.0058.780.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0950.0066.380.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.390.090.0020.63-0.39-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.0983.3371.500.000.04
TexasB120.000.0950.0038.730.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0988.8956.710.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0962.5066.500.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0625.0043.29-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0690.0080.060.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0047.520.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.450.0637.5050.92-0.110.00
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.49-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.51-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6770.400.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0644.4453.29-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0031.31-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.71-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.390.0642.8639.64-0.06-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0675.0075.180.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0056.270.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.200.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.82-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7175.800.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.08-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.620.0671.4337.680.27-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0677.7864.250.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.520.060.0022.75-0.52-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.44-0.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0620.0022.88-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.390.0662.5044.840.10-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.16-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0020.21-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.55-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.370.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.08-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.080.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2232.01-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0662.5074.160.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.49-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.290.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.590.000.02
VCUA100.000.0675.0072.930.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0612.5028.64-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0677.7865.840.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.390.0657.1472.530.060.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.070.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
IowaB100.000.0644.4438.41-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8977.470.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0688.8966.920.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.64-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.030.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0687.5050.250.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.30-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.46-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.840.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0320.0038.50-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5030.11-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.690.000.01
PacificWCC0.450.0342.8645.98-0.06-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0357.1450.730.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0328.5724.39-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.270.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.700.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.24-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.520.0340.0041.72-0.10-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
Oregon St.P120.520.0325.0023.62-0.26-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0040.17-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.820.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5052.060.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.620.0357.1448.110.09-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6730.09-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2246.51-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.450.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8643.78-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8967.470.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3351.98-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0041.19-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.390.0375.0069.680.200.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.390.0342.8637.05-0.06-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.620.0357.1459.020.090.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.260.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0076.400.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7175.250.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.0350.0064.910.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.860.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5043.19-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.78-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01