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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:317.0
Current RPI:317
Expected SOS:293
Current SOS:293
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21317.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Bradley (265.0)MVCA72-65L0%0.0
11-10Illinois (70.0)B10A86-62L0%0.0
11-12Chicago St. (259.0)WACA79-75L0%0.0
11-16Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH73-84L0%0.0
11-19Auburn (169.0)SECA78-54L0%0.0
11-25Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA69-76W100%0.0
11-30Central Michigan (294.0)MACA66-61L0%0.0
12-8Florida St. (54.0)ACCA77-53L0%0.0
12-11Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH63-52W100%0.0
12-14Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA76-46L0%0.0
12-17Central Michigan (294.0)MACH82-73W100%0.0
12-20Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBN75-70L0%0.0
12-21Coppin St. (261.0)MEACN61-72W100%0.0
12-30Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH70-65W100%0.0
1-2Belmont (57.0)OVCA78-67L0%0.0
1-4Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA70-65L0%0.0
1-9SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH61-52W100%0.0
1-11Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH48-56L0%0.0
1-16Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH70-64W100%0.0
1-18Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA60-56L0%0.0
1-23Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA59-71W100%0.0
1-25Murray St. (142.0)OVCA73-65L0%0.0
2-1Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA65-54L0%0.0
2-8Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH60-72L0%0.0
2-13Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH67-69L0%0.0
2-15Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH65-86L0%0.0
2-20Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA87-70L0%0.0
2-22Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA69-57L0%0.0
3-1Belmont (57.0)OVCH53-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jacksonville St.OVC26.1826.1827.6427.64-11.71-11.71
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.224.2268.9768.971.601.60
BelmontOVC4.194.1970.0070.001.681.68
Morehead St.OVC4.194.1955.1755.170.430.43
Tennessee TechOVC4.164.1644.8344.83-0.43-0.43
Tennessee St.OVC4.134.1311.1111.11-3.21-3.21
Central MichiganMAC3.543.5425.9325.93-1.70-1.70
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.452.4532.1432.14-0.88-0.88
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.402.4051.7251.720.080.08
Murray St.OVC2.392.3957.6957.690.370.37
Austin PeayOVC2.372.3737.0437.04-0.61-0.61
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.362.3629.6329.63-0.96-0.96
Tennessee MartinOVC2.342.3421.4321.43-1.33-1.33
Alabama A&MSWAC1.961.9644.4444.44-0.22-0.22
Alabama St.SWAC1.961.9655.5655.560.220.22
Alcorn St.SWAC1.881.8833.3333.33-0.63-0.63
IllinoisB101.871.8756.2556.250.230.23
BradleyMVC1.871.8735.4835.48-0.54-0.54
Chicago St.WAC1.871.8734.4834.48-0.58-0.58
AuburnSEC1.841.8444.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Florida St.ACC1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
DartmouthIvy1.751.7536.0036.00-0.49-0.49
Arkansas Little RockSB1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Coppin St.MEAC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
LipscombASun0.320.3248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.290.2967.7467.740.100.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.2230.3030.30-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.220.2256.2556.250.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.2114.8114.81-0.15-0.15
SouthernSWAC0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
East Tennessee St.ASun0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
ToledoMAC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Western KentuckySB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
UMKCWAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
FloridaSEC0.110.1194.1294.120.100.10
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
BrownIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
PennIvy0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
YaleIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01