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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:264.1
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:341
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:230



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1093.00.01%
18-11134.10.08%
17-12148.60.26%
16-13163.50.96%
15-14185.53.03%
14-15207.06.81%
13-16230.312.49%
12-17250.718.43%
11-18271.221.62%
10-19289.217.73%
9-20303.411.44%
8-21314.44.93%
7-22324.21.81%
6-23331.60.36%
5-24337.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marshall (214.1)CUSAA74-55L0%0.0
11-17Louisville (7.1)ACCA88-39L0%0.0
11-19Cleveland St. (144.9)HorzA60-46L0%0.0
11-25Alabama A&M (330.9)SWACA61-67W100%0.0
11-28Savannah St. (320.4)MEACH74-71W100%0.0
12-3Winthrop (252.2)BSthH79-76W100%0.0
12-6Alabama St. (228.8)SWACA80-55L0%0.0
12-14Dartmouth (184.4)IvyH79-67W100%0.0
12-16UNC Asheville (224.1)BSthH64-55W100%0.0
12-20Northern Colorado (178.5)BSkyA0-013%-13.1
12-22Air Force (109.1)MWCA0-06%-18.2
12-27Jacksonville (336.7)ASunA0-056%1.8
1-1SIU Edwardsville (332.6)OVCA0-041%-2.6
1-3Eastern Illinois (266.0)OVCA0-026%-7.5
1-8Austin Peay (300.3)OVCH0-061%3.2
1-11Murray St. (160.4)OVCH0-033%-5.3
1-14Southeast Missouri St. (245.0)OVCH0-045%-1.4
1-17Tennessee Martin (144.5)OVCA0-010%-15.2
1-22Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCH0-036%-4.3
1-24Morehead St. (209.5)OVCH0-036%-4.1
1-29Belmont (125.7)OVCA0-010%-15.1
1-31Tennessee St. (326.5)OVCA0-046%-1.3
2-4Memphis (85.7)AmerA0-06%-17.8
2-7Tennessee Tech (202.0)OVCA0-019%-10.4
2-11Belmont (125.7)OVCH0-029%-6.4
2-14Tennessee Tech (202.0)OVCH0-044%-1.6
2-21Tennessee St. (326.5)OVCH0-074%7.4
2-26Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCA0-013%-13.0
2-28Morehead St. (209.5)OVCA0-014%-12.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jacksonville St.OVC28.2526.2161.2940.326.38-5.08
Morehead St.OVC0.354.1618.1844.03-0.22-0.50
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.254.1642.8654.06-0.040.34
Tennessee St.OVC0.004.130.0015.10-0.00-2.88
BelmontOVC0.004.1360.0061.630.000.96
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.1350.0048.170.00-0.15
Murray St.OVC0.002.3955.5661.590.000.55
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.462.3844.4447.25-0.05-0.13
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.3833.3337.66-0.00-0.59
Austin PeayOVC0.002.3522.2230.68-0.00-0.91
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.3562.5065.800.000.74
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.340.0022.25-0.00-1.30
Savannah St.MEAC7.311.9420.0029.06-4.39-0.81
MarshallCUSA6.431.8714.2936.74-4.59-0.50
Alabama A&MSWAC5.561.860.0033.01-5.56-0.63
WinthropBSth6.061.8533.3349.20-2.02-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz6.461.8425.0047.92-3.23-0.08
LouisvilleACC6.461.81100.0084.846.461.26
Alabama St.SWAC5.561.7920.0061.38-3.330.41
UNC AshevilleBSth5.561.7916.6747.00-3.70-0.11
Air ForceMWC0.001.7257.1460.430.000.36
DartmouthIvy5.561.7250.0049.290.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.001.7210.0017.65-0.00-1.12
MemphisAmer0.001.7255.5658.870.000.31
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.7228.5756.13-0.000.21
LipscombASun0.000.3725.0042.64-0.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.790.2571.4363.890.340.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.2560.0049.500.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.2244.4456.91-0.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2155.5649.500.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.310.2020.0026.57-0.19-0.09
PresbyterianBSth0.000.190.008.63-0.00-0.16
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1911.1144.04-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1860.0057.600.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1844.4445.64-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1720.0038.24-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.170.008.88-0.00-0.14
SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0033.84-0.00-0.05
CampbellBSth0.000.1725.0044.59-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0028.26-0.00-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1718.1844.62-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1637.5050.40-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.160.0039.41-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1580.0069.620.000.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1550.0052.710.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1525.0033.17-0.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.250.1590.0075.520.200.08
HamptonMEAC0.000.1540.0050.32-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.250.1587.5054.790.190.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1577.7869.190.000.06
VirginiaACC0.310.14100.0085.310.310.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1410.0018.01-0.00-0.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1411.1144.62-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.1362.5056.410.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1325.0034.77-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.1350.0055.810.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1316.6727.56-0.00-0.06
UC DavisBW0.000.1385.7161.020.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1377.7871.110.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1320.0029.81-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0012.36-0.00-0.09
UNLVMWC0.000.1275.0050.750.000.00
UABCUSA0.400.1230.0037.28-0.16-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1244.4470.08-0.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1236.3633.67-0.00-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0046.150.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.1275.0078.480.000.07
OaklandHorz0.000.1230.0031.57-0.00-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1057.1470.590.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.460.1025.0032.77-0.23-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.1050.0041.830.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.310.1057.1456.900.040.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.10100.0078.050.000.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.770.0975.0067.580.390.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.79-0.00-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0933.3334.28-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0911.1125.02-0.00-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0034.08-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.0980.0072.550.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.0910.0027.42-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.400.0960.0064.610.080.03
BrownIvy0.000.0940.0033.79-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.770.0937.5031.95-0.19-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0094.790.000.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0017.51-0.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0918.1821.30-0.00-0.05
VCUA100.000.0970.0071.420.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3332.85-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0960.0064.620.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0972.7367.750.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.400.0937.5038.60-0.10-0.02
FIUCUSA0.310.0944.4451.04-0.030.00
Ohio St.B100.310.0990.0084.680.250.06
HoustonAmer0.000.0971.4348.860.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.460.0777.7871.960.260.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0742.8649.98-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0766.6748.410.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.870.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.680.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.240.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.33-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0052.09-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0622.2228.69-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.75-0.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.600.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0640.0050.78-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8642.32-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0670.0072.830.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.84-0.00-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.0655.5650.970.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.370.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.740.0662.5064.260.190.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0041.46-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.33-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.610.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.240.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4439.74-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8638.11-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.85-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3331.58-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.120.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
ClemsonACC0.400.0666.6745.670.13-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.460.0677.7851.350.260.00
Virginia TechACC0.460.0655.5638.130.05-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.400.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.350.0690.9153.850.280.00
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.400.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.13-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.44-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.180.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.400.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.07-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.560.0680.0057.630.340.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.110.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6777.690.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0057.510.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.630.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.340.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.800.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5634.940.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.350.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.40-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.870.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.460.0337.5041.20-0.12-0.01
UtahP120.460.0377.7879.480.260.02
AuburnSEC0.400.0344.4436.35-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.460.0377.7870.120.260.01
MarylandB100.400.0390.9167.660.320.01
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0330.0029.80-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2933.32-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.43-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.58-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0336.3664.92-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.300.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.910.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.17-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.19-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0320.0019.99-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.930.000.01
HartfordAE0.310.0350.0051.050.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.91-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
Kansas St.B120.250.0360.0037.220.05-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0064.110.000.01
MaineAE0.310.0311.1121.08-0.24-0.02
MercerSC0.310.0337.5042.45-0.08-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.310.0357.1464.620.040.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.98-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.310.0375.0065.410.150.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.46-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.310.0355.5654.360.030.00
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.85-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.960.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
IonaMAAC0.310.0366.6772.340.100.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.28-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8627.08-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.310.0360.0059.420.060.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.350.0390.0066.940.280.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.870.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.09-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0090.940.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.07-0.000.00
MinnesotaB100.310.0377.7864.730.170.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.890.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0388.8963.660.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4445.59-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.800.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.600.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.310.0350.0053.700.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.320.000.02