live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Jacksonville St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:300.4
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:272
Current Record:6-17
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:269



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18243.30.15%
10-19262.92.21%
9-20279.811.80%
8-21294.428.86%
7-22306.139.20%
6-23316.217.77%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Central Michigan (120.6)MACA89-83L0%0.0
11-18Virginia Tech (138.4)ACCA71-62L0%0.0
11-20Winthrop (165.9)BSthA80-69L0%0.0
11-22UAB (93.2)CUSAA61-55L0%0.0
11-24Alabama A&M (298.6)SWACH69-73L0%0.0
11-27Chicago St. (343.1)WACN68-65W100%0.0
11-28Chattanooga (46.9)SCN52-62L0%0.0
12-1Samford (244.7)SCH71-77L0%0.0
12-5Jacksonville (250.3)ASunH82-86L0%0.0
12-13Alabama St. (301.8)SWACH60-63L0%0.0
12-18Loyola Marymount (228.8)WCCA77-60L0%0.0
12-21Northern Colorado (303.0)BSkyH79-76W100%0.0
12-29Alabama (85.6)SECA67-59L0%0.0
12-31SIU Edwardsville (309.5)OVCH72-67W100%0.0
1-2Eastern Illinois (251.4)OVCH64-75L0%0.0
1-7Austin Peay (252.7)OVCA73-54L0%0.0
1-9Murray St. (170.9)OVCA69-54L0%0.0
1-13Southeast Missouri St. (329.8)OVCA60-74W100%0.0
1-16Tennessee Martin (248.6)OVCH82-60W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Kentucky (216.8)OVCA91-88L0%0.0
1-24Morehead St. (155.4)OVCA74-78W100%0.0
1-28Belmont (68.0)OVCH63-72L0%0.0
1-30Tennessee St. (176.4)OVCH53-78L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee Tech (107.6)OVCH0-030%-5.7
2-10Belmont (68.0)OVCA0-07%-16.2
2-13Tennessee Tech (107.6)OVCA0-013%-12.3
2-20Tennessee St. (176.4)OVCA0-019%-9.6
2-25Eastern Kentucky (216.8)OVCH0-045%-1.4
2-27Morehead St. (155.4)OVCH0-028%-6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Jacksonville St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Jacksonville St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Jacksonville St.OVC26.1926.2025.6924.77-12.73-13.22
Tennessee TechOVC0.554.1566.6764.350.181.19
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.584.1447.8344.68-0.11-0.44
BelmontOVC2.584.1368.1868.070.941.49
Morehead St.OVC2.574.1255.0055.690.260.47
Tennessee St.OVC2.524.1263.1658.430.660.70
Austin PeayOVC2.682.4131.8235.32-0.97-0.71
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.682.4015.0016.94-1.88-1.59
Murray St.OVC2.642.3745.0051.10-0.260.05
Tennessee MartinOVC2.522.3547.6249.68-0.12-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.582.3419.0523.68-1.59-1.23
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.572.3435.0040.80-0.77-0.43
Alabama St.SWAC2.491.9422.2231.38-1.38-0.72
ChattanoogaSC2.281.8885.0083.991.601.28
Alabama A&MSWAC2.331.8531.2542.28-0.88-0.29
SamfordSC2.271.8238.1041.34-0.54-0.31
Virginia TechACC2.281.7850.0045.500.00-0.16
WinthropBSth2.281.7863.1661.890.600.42
UABCUSA2.281.7880.9577.571.410.98
AlabamaSEC2.231.7655.0050.670.220.02
Loyola MarymountWCC2.231.7638.1038.78-0.53-0.39
Chicago St.WAC2.231.754.768.20-2.02-1.47
Northern ColoradoBSky2.221.7531.5831.09-0.82-0.66
Central MichiganMAC2.171.7250.0050.380.000.01
JacksonvilleASun2.171.7245.0045.85-0.22-0.14
LipscombASun0.300.3721.7427.63-0.17-0.17
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.3157.1457.920.030.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.310.2822.7324.28-0.17-0.14
Western KentuckyCUSA0.260.2447.6247.96-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.2233.3334.18-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.220.2216.6720.72-0.15-0.13
Ball St.MAC0.210.2161.9058.220.050.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.2170.0068.920.080.08
MarshallCUSA0.200.2147.8350.56-0.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1950.0056.530.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1917.3921.76-0.08-0.11
StetsonASun0.160.1925.0029.75-0.08-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.210.1952.1747.620.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.270.1973.9176.040.130.10
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1825.0029.91-0.08-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1647.6257.24-0.010.02
Saint LouisA100.210.1638.1033.39-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.200.1657.1457.880.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1621.7424.61-0.10-0.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1530.0033.57-0.06-0.05
BYUWCC0.200.1569.5773.040.080.07
MercerSC0.210.1571.4370.590.090.06
WoffordSC0.200.1538.1043.38-0.05-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1580.9583.030.090.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.1423.8128.31-0.05-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.134.7614.00-0.11-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.120.1363.1666.160.030.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1330.0032.46-0.06-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.160.1323.8125.04-0.08-0.06
IndianaB100.150.1382.6177.360.100.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.1363.6468.200.010.05
RadfordBSth0.150.1252.3853.610.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1260.0056.080.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.220.1268.4271.820.080.05
LongwoodBSth0.100.1219.0522.38-0.06-0.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1215.0015.65-0.11-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1281.8281.000.100.08
IPFWSum0.200.1273.9170.210.090.05
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1233.3333.65-0.03-0.04
FurmanSC0.150.1254.5553.780.010.01
The CitadelSC0.150.1235.0031.39-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1280.0070.310.060.05
VMISC0.100.1216.6718.98-0.06-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1242.8641.75-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.100.1172.7369.690.040.05
CampbellBSth0.100.1030.0030.38-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1057.8957.330.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0928.5728.87-0.02-0.04
OhioMAC0.110.0960.0057.940.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.0975.0073.480.080.04
Western IllinoisSum0.150.0927.7829.23-0.07-0.04
North FloridaASun0.100.0968.1869.350.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.170.0955.0048.830.02-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.0961.9062.050.040.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.0959.0958.090.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0935.0036.61-0.02-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0950.0054.850.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.0950.0048.260.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0966.6760.120.040.02
DaytonA100.160.0985.7181.210.110.06
IdahoBSky0.100.0957.1457.940.010.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0930.0034.84-0.04-0.03
IllinoisB100.150.0947.8344.51-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.150.0945.0042.81-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0965.2256.540.030.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0947.6252.95-0.000.01
Iowa St.B120.150.0972.7368.840.070.03
NorthwesternB100.150.0966.6763.490.050.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.0935.0034.92-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0915.7916.40-0.07-0.06
TroySB0.150.0920.0023.76-0.09-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.0942.8645.93-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.0942.8637.22-0.01-0.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0981.8278.720.060.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0725.0029.29-0.05-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0757.8961.470.010.02
LibertyBSth0.110.0731.8232.90-0.04-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0763.6465.480.010.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0642.8635.05-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0657.8955.420.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0645.0049.60-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.100.0672.7368.010.050.02
IowaB100.000.0681.8279.900.000.04
Loyola MDPat0.050.0631.8234.36-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.050.0652.1754.520.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0029.52-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0659.0959.470.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0628.5734.73-0.04-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0621.0523.70-0.06-0.03
AkronMAC0.060.0680.9579.160.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0665.0067.520.010.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0636.8432.84-0.03-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0650.0048.760.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0638.8943.23-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0650.0053.080.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.100.0677.2776.120.050.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0642.1142.70-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0655.5660.910.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0638.1041.23-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0644.4446.93-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0621.0524.60-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0637.5036.54-0.01-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0633.3339.26-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.0085.230.030.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.0633.3329.23-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0652.3848.880.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0631.8232.32-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0657.1457.580.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0647.8343.93-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0635.0035.36-0.01-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0668.1867.800.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.0663.6456.050.030.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.0620.8320.11-0.06-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0668.1863.240.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0652.1750.250.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0622.7323.38-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0673.6870.400.040.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.0630.0029.47-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0659.0962.730.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.0681.8277.490.060.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.7922.52-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0663.6459.440.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.0043.24-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0631.5833.50-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0685.7176.020.070.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0675.0071.270.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0663.6462.330.010.01
Notre DameACC0.100.0668.1863.710.040.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0680.9575.610.000.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0681.8276.020.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0645.4542.13-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.26-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0336.8437.31-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0360.0061.320.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0326.3227.35-0.03-0.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0333.3332.42-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0327.2730.42-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0354.5555.310.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0319.0521.34-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0359.0958.570.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0340.9138.03-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0365.2265.220.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0326.3236.92-0.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.5555.190.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0366.6766.030.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0357.1457.530.010.00
ButlerBE0.050.0368.1866.480.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0330.0028.62-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0372.7366.980.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0352.1748.790.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0336.3634.96-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0354.5553.030.010.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0340.0042.58-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.050.0380.9577.010.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0366.6761.680.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.99-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0318.7533.16-0.04-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.035.2610.18-0.05-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0366.6767.310.020.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0360.0054.580.010.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0344.4448.53-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.670.020.01
UMBCAE0.050.0320.8325.00-0.03-0.02
USCP120.050.0378.2673.090.030.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0370.0069.350.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0331.5836.17-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0369.5768.670.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.1751.550.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0350.0045.740.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0340.9143.01-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.050.0368.1861.760.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0361.9054.010.010.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0336.3642.18-0.01-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0361.1158.310.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.910.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0072.210.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0336.3630.98-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.48-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0354.5561.940.000.01
OregonP120.050.0381.8278.220.030.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0325.0028.19-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0368.7574.720.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0381.8281.000.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0350.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0314.2913.98-0.04-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0376.1979.640.030.02
XavierBE0.050.0390.9184.430.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0331.8226.63-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0372.7369.900.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.770.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.3680.670.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0326.0930.34-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0381.8277.420.030.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.710.020.01