Gardner Webb

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	194.0
Current RPI:	194
Expected SOS:	326
Current SOS:	326
Current Record:	18-12
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	12-6
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-8
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	183
Expected OOC SOS:	267

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-12	194.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	A	76-59	L	0%
11-14	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	62-66	L	0%
11-15	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	59-71	W	100%
11-17	Iowa (79.0)	B10	A	65-56	L	0%
11-20	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	N	55-43	W	100%
11-21	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	N	72-62	W	100%
11-25	Illinois (40.0)	B10	A	63-62	L	0%
12-5	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	54-42	L	0%
12-8	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	H	61-41	W	100%
12-15	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	71-58	W	100%
12-18	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	A	62-60	L	0%
1-5	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	93-81	L	0%
1-9	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	H	78-71	W	100%
1-12	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	70-64	L	0%
1-16	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	66-65	W	100%
1-19	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	51-52	L	0%
1-23	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	61-55	L	0%
1-26	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	A	49-63	W	100%
1-30	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	73-74	W	100%
2-2	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	76-65	W	100%
2-6	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	A	57-54	L	0%
2-9	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	71-68	W	100%
2-13	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	65-67	W	100%
2-16	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	63-70	W	100%
2-19	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	65-52	W	100%
2-23	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	52-55	W	100%
2-27	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	67-62	W	100%
3-2	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	76-57	W	100%
3-7	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	N	71-57	W	100%
3-9	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	N	62-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Gardner Webb	BSth	26.26	26.26	64.62	64.62	7.68	7.68
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.23	4.23	61.54	61.54	0.98	0.98
Liberty	BSth	4.18	4.18	36.67	36.67	-1.12	-1.12
Winthrop	BSth	4.15	4.15	38.46	38.46	-0.96	-0.96
Coastal Carolina	BSth	4.13	4.13	45.83	45.83	-0.34	-0.34
Presbyterian	BSth	4.12	4.12	14.81	14.81	-2.90	-2.90
NC Asheville	BSth	4.06	4.06	48.15	48.15	-0.15	-0.15
Campbell	BSth	4.06	4.06	35.71	35.71	-1.16	-1.16
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.47	2.47	40.74	40.74	-0.46	-0.46
Longwood	BSth	2.44	2.44	20.00	20.00	-1.47	-1.47
Radford	BSth	2.44	2.44	32.14	32.14	-0.87	-0.87
High Point	BSth	2.43	2.43	51.85	51.85	0.09	0.09
The Citadel	SC	1.95	1.95	22.22	22.22	-1.08	-1.08
College of Charleston	SC	1.90	1.90	75.00	75.00	0.95	0.95
Wofford	SC	1.84	1.84	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
Austin Peay	OVC	1.83	1.83	21.43	21.43	-1.05	-1.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.79	1.79	38.46	38.46	-0.41	-0.41
East Carolina	CUSA	1.75	1.75	52.00	52.00	0.07	0.07
Howard	MEAC	1.74	1.74	21.43	21.43	-1.00	-1.00
Lipscomb	ASun	1.73	1.73	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
Iowa	B10	1.72	1.72	62.50	62.50	0.43	0.43
North Carolina	ACC	1.70	1.70	68.75	68.75	0.64	0.64
DePaul	BE	1.70	1.70	35.48	35.48	-0.49	-0.49
Illinois	B10	1.69	1.69	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
Western Carolina	SC	0.39	0.39	38.71	38.71	-0.09	-0.09
Appalachian St.	SC	0.26	0.26	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.23	0.23	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
Furman	SC	0.22	0.22	17.24	17.24	-0.14	-0.14
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.21	0.21	57.69	57.69	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.19	0.19	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
Georgia Southern	SC	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	SC	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Charlotte	A10	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.17	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Auburn	SEC	0.17	0.17	28.12	28.12	-0.07	-0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Elon	SC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.16	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Boston University	AE	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
William & Mary	CAA	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Murray St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01