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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:210.0
Current RPI:210
Expected SOS:262
Current SOS:262
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:228
Expected OOC SOS:157



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16210.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Iowa (28.0)B10A76-59L0%0.0
11-16Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA98-62L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee (143.0)SECA89-64L0%0.0
11-24George Washington (68.0)A10A94-65L0%0.0
11-27Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndN77-68W100%0.0
11-28Army (214.0)PatA103-98L0%0.0
12-2Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA76-87W100%0.0
12-5High Point (158.0)BSthH64-66L0%0.0
12-12Furman (167.0)SCA53-73W100%0.0
12-16LSU (94.0)SECA78-57L0%0.0
12-21VMI (316.0)SCH75-76L0%0.0
12-31Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH65-61W100%0.0
1-2Longwood (323.0)BSthA66-67W100%0.0
1-6Campbell (308.0)BSthH71-68W100%0.0
1-9Radford (192.0)BSthH83-61W100%0.0
1-16UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA75-69L0%0.0
1-20Winthrop (130.0)BSthH58-71L0%0.0
1-24Radford (192.0)BSthA69-59L0%0.0
1-27Liberty (264.0)BSthH55-69L0%0.0
1-30Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthA59-68W100%0.0
2-3High Point (158.0)BSthA74-79W100%0.0
2-6Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH69-66W100%0.0
2-11Campbell (308.0)BSthA89-85L0%0.0
2-13Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthA78-71L0%0.0
2-18Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH84-76W100%0.0
2-20Longwood (323.0)BSthH81-71W100%0.0
2-27Liberty (264.0)BSthA86-81L0%0.0
3-3Campbell (308.0)BSthA69-79W100%0.0
3-4Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthN65-69W100%0.0
3-5Winthrop (130.0)BSthN82-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth26.6526.6551.4751.470.780.78
CampbellBSth5.985.9833.3333.33-1.99-1.99
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.945.9460.8760.871.291.29
PresbyterianBSth4.524.5230.7730.77-1.74-1.74
WinthropBSth4.494.4966.6766.671.501.50
LongwoodBSth4.434.4325.0025.00-2.22-2.22
High PointBSth4.434.4365.3865.381.361.36
RadfordBSth4.414.4148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Charleston SouthernBSth4.404.4024.0024.00-2.29-2.29
LibertyBSth4.334.3329.6329.63-1.76-1.76
UNC AshevilleBSth3.033.0363.3363.330.810.81
TennesseeSEC1.871.8742.4242.42-0.28-0.28
VMISC1.871.8719.2319.23-1.15-1.15
FurmanSC1.871.8753.3353.330.120.12
VanderbiltSEC1.771.7758.0658.060.280.28
LSUSEC1.741.7456.2556.250.220.22
George WashingtonA101.721.7268.7568.750.640.64
ArmyPat1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
IowaB101.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
WoffordSC0.300.3043.3343.33-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.270.2724.1424.14-0.14-0.14
East Tennessee St.SC0.260.2665.6265.620.080.08
AuburnSEC0.250.2535.4835.48-0.07-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1784.3884.380.120.12
Penn St.B100.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
MercerSC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MarquetteBE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
NavyPat0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
George MasonA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
NevadaMWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
AmericanPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
SienaMAAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0329.1729.17-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01