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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:98.3
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:150
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:17-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC RPI:63
Expected OOC SOS:166



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-215.70.03%
22-327.70.28%
21-436.71.23%
20-545.74.23%
19-657.310.34%
18-771.416.07%
17-886.819.92%
16-9105.319.09%
15-10124.614.49%
14-11146.18.00%
13-12168.84.15%
12-13191.11.51%
11-14214.20.56%
10-15228.40.08%
9-16273.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15LSU (78.9)SECA93-82L0%0.0
11-17College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA67-80W100%0.0
11-21Clemson (139.2)ACCN72-70W100%0.0
12-2Arizona (25.1)P12A0-012%-14.3
12-13Furman (316.1)SCH0-094%18.7
12-17Jacksonville (337.4)ASunA0-084%11.9
12-22Purdue (63.6)B10A0-017%-11.5
12-31Presbyterian (268.2)BSthA0-072%7.2
1-3UNC Asheville (194.2)BSthA0-056%1.9
1-8Radford (225.4)BSthH0-081%10.4
1-10Winthrop (180.6)BSthH0-074%7.7
1-14High Point (136.0)BSthH0-072%6.8
1-17Coastal Carolina (139.1)BSthA0-042%-2.3
1-22Longwood (327.3)BSthH0-095%20.3
1-24Charleston Southern (138.5)BSthA0-047%-0.8
1-28Campbell (289.7)BSthA0-076%8.3
1-31Coastal Carolina (139.1)BSthH0-066%4.8
2-3Longwood (327.3)BSthA0-086%13.2
2-6Campbell (289.7)BSthH0-090%15.5
2-9UNC Asheville (194.2)BSthH0-078%9.1
2-14Winthrop (180.6)BSthA0-052%0.5
2-18High Point (136.0)BSthA0-049%-0.3
2-21Liberty (279.6)BSthH0-087%13.5
2-26Charleston Southern (138.5)BSthH0-070%6.4
2-28Radford (225.4)BSthA0-060%3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth32.6426.5280.0071.3419.5811.32
High PointBSth0.005.13100.0059.810.001.01
CampbellBSth0.005.100.0031.14-0.00-1.92
UNC AshevilleBSth0.005.0850.0050.860.000.09
WinthropBSth2.785.0750.0058.200.000.83
LongwoodBSth0.005.0750.0022.130.00-2.82
RadfordBSth0.005.0533.3346.10-0.00-0.39
Charleston SouthernBSth0.005.04100.0059.710.000.98
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.005.040.0063.56-0.001.37
LibertyBSth0.003.2450.0042.160.00-0.51
PresbyterianBSth0.003.200.0033.66-0.00-1.05
ClemsonACC16.672.1550.0046.590.00-0.15
College of CharlestonCAA16.672.1433.3359.18-5.560.39
FurmanSC2.082.0750.0026.580.00-0.97
LSUSEC16.672.0350.0055.280.000.21
ArizonaP120.002.00100.0068.270.000.73
JacksonvilleASun0.002.000.0024.56-0.00-1.02
PurdueB100.002.00100.0059.770.000.39
James MadisonCAA0.000.3666.6747.240.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.2666.6742.560.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.250.0028.95-0.00-0.11
SamfordSC0.000.2533.3332.57-0.00-0.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.230.0048.48-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.230.0045.03-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.2366.6760.220.000.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.22100.0059.140.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.21100.0073.590.000.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.190.0031.91-0.00-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.190.0032.47-0.00-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1933.3336.04-0.00-0.05
WoffordSC0.000.1966.6774.980.000.09
Virginia TechACC0.000.19100.0041.370.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1850.0040.180.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.160.0020.87-0.00-0.09
Florida St.ACC0.000.1550.0056.300.000.02
RichmondA100.000.1550.0062.660.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1550.0055.220.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.140.0049.10-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.1450.0045.610.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.11100.0061.850.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0041.490.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.11100.0063.680.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.110.0043.40-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.11100.0054.240.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.11100.0070.040.000.04
DukeACC0.000.11100.0086.380.000.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.11100.0071.730.000.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.1150.0033.640.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.110.0027.74-0.00-0.05
MinnesotaB100.000.1150.0063.730.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1150.0035.880.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.11100.0069.430.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.110.0033.61-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.10100.0048.380.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.1066.6766.600.000.03
RutgersB100.000.1050.0036.270.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.1050.0067.840.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1066.6763.800.000.03
Texas A&MSEC2.080.1066.6764.990.690.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0850.0062.510.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.08100.0062.840.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.080.0034.69-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.080.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0850.0052.540.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0725.0033.23-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0033.60-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0054.47-0.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0740.0041.64-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.07100.0064.920.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0775.0054.690.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0034.15-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0750.0052.770.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0023.20-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.0733.3358.87-0.000.01
VMISC0.000.0750.0043.730.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.070.0015.68-0.00-0.05
ColgatePat0.000.070.0036.43-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3343.51-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC2.780.070.0016.72-2.78-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0052.690.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.070.0027.11-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.070.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3338.27-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0750.0036.850.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0035.17-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.070.0032.16-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.07100.0050.220.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0074.210.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0065.390.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.07100.0036.560.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.070.0033.70-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0073.200.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.07100.0058.420.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0038.12-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0775.0073.240.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.07100.0068.420.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0033.39-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0050.900.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6777.370.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.630.000.02
IndianaB100.000.07100.0063.850.000.02
MichiganB100.000.07100.0066.870.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6750.370.000.00
OregonP120.000.07100.0070.690.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.07100.0050.080.000.00
StanfordP120.000.07100.0068.290.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0750.0044.000.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.070.0035.60-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0766.6770.360.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0048.390.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.070.0036.14-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.07100.0068.580.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.070.0034.27-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0750.0040.300.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0069.720.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0766.6745.850.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0433.3349.73-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.040.0054.88-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0466.6764.270.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0466.6768.330.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.040.0054.04-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.04100.0043.140.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.040.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0450.0041.690.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0034.26-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0433.3335.37-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.04100.0079.370.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.04100.0066.050.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0466.6751.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0433.3338.44-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.04100.0044.620.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0475.0070.210.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.04100.0076.260.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0055.900.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0044.57-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3344.98-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.950.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3330.78-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6755.230.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.880.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.300.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0032.86-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.710.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA2.780.03100.0077.162.780.02
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0045.210.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
Texas TechB122.780.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0062.910.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0350.0026.710.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0044.430.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.460.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.05-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.110.000.02
ConnecticutAmer2.080.03100.0075.402.080.02