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Through games of Dec 25, 2014.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:128.5
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:176
Current SOS:26
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:62



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-541.00.02%
21-649.60.23%
20-760.31.24%
19-873.34.32%
18-988.29.79%
17-10103.316.81%
16-11120.821.69%
15-12138.519.49%
14-13157.013.90%
13-14176.57.73%
12-15196.83.32%
11-16216.61.05%
10-17239.80.31%
9-18258.90.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15LSU (63.8)SECA93-82L0%0.0
11-17College of Charleston (192.9)CAAA67-80W100%0.0
11-21Clemson (151.9)ACCN72-70W100%0.0
11-23Seton Hall (41.3)BEN85-67L0%0.0
11-24Old Dominion (38.7)CUSAN58-46L0%0.0
12-2Arizona (16.8)P12A91-65L0%0.0
12-13Furman (257.8)SCH74-68W100%0.0
12-17Jacksonville (341.0)ASunA68-65L0%0.0
12-22Purdue (99.0)B10A84-89W100%0.0
12-31Presbyterian (341.4)BSthA0-090%15.0
1-3UNC Asheville (253.6)BSthA0-050%0.1
1-8Radford (157.4)BSthH0-069%5.7
1-10Winthrop (263.8)BSthH0-079%9.3
1-14High Point (128.3)BSthH0-069%5.9
1-17Coastal Carolina (132.4)BSthA0-027%-7.0
1-22Longwood (319.9)BSthH0-092%16.4
1-24Charleston Southern (216.9)BSthA0-053%0.8
1-28Campbell (214.5)BSthA0-050%-0.1
1-31Coastal Carolina (132.4)BSthH0-055%1.4
2-3Longwood (319.9)BSthA0-075%7.9
2-6Campbell (214.5)BSthH0-077%8.4
2-9UNC Asheville (253.6)BSthH0-077%8.6
2-14Winthrop (263.8)BSthA0-053%0.8
2-18High Point (128.3)BSthA0-041%-2.6
2-21Liberty (318.5)BSthH0-087%12.9
2-26Charleston Southern (216.9)BSthH0-079%9.3
2-28Radford (157.4)BSthA0-040%-2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth27.2026.4553.6661.961.996.33
High PointBSth0.254.7466.6763.270.081.26
CampbellBSth0.234.7133.3347.47-0.08-0.24
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.6912.5038.86-0.00-1.05
WinthropBSth0.254.6925.0044.37-0.13-0.53
LongwoodBSth0.004.6820.0026.15-0.00-2.23
RadfordBSth0.004.6760.0063.490.001.26
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.004.6662.5072.180.002.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.6637.5047.49-0.00-0.23
LibertyBSth0.282.9922.2235.18-0.15-0.88
PresbyterianBSth0.002.950.008.18-0.00-2.47
ClemsonACC5.812.0270.0047.262.32-0.11
College of CharlestonCAA6.091.9845.4545.81-0.55-0.17
LSUSEC6.291.9480.0064.303.780.56
FurmanSC5.791.9222.2236.32-3.22-0.52
Old DominionCUSA5.811.8890.0083.234.651.25
ArizonaP125.561.8591.6778.014.631.04
JacksonvilleASun5.561.850.0013.58-5.56-1.35
PurdueB105.561.8566.6755.481.850.20
Seton HallBE5.561.8580.0063.673.330.51
James MadisonCAA0.000.3258.3353.070.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.2420.0034.27-0.00-0.07
AuburnSEC0.250.2354.5538.740.02-0.05
SamfordSC0.740.2338.4634.15-0.17-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2162.5060.900.000.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2127.2743.30-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.2072.7356.250.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.470.2076.9260.540.250.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1983.3382.540.000.13
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.250.1950.0051.810.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1845.4537.55-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.1770.0072.440.000.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1718.1826.19-0.00-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.1723.0828.61-0.12-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1763.6439.430.00-0.04
RichmondA100.250.1763.6455.050.070.02
CharlotteCUSA0.230.1654.5564.620.020.05
William & MaryCAA0.250.1650.0056.920.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.140.0016.05-0.00-0.10
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1445.4553.19-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1358.3340.850.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.250.1366.6764.780.080.04
UABCUSA0.250.1327.2733.59-0.11-0.04
North FloridaASun0.210.1345.4557.75-0.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1370.0059.220.000.02
RutgersB100.510.1258.3337.670.08-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1050.0037.440.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.1091.6771.850.000.04
UCLAP120.000.1066.6754.060.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.280.1070.0066.960.110.03
TCUB120.280.10100.0070.110.280.04
DukeACC0.280.10100.0087.580.280.07
MercerSC0.250.1040.0042.57-0.05-0.01
The CitadelSC0.230.1012.5031.52-0.17-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.1027.2727.75-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1060.0061.540.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.100.0024.18-0.25-0.05
DavidsonA100.230.1088.8975.800.180.05
George WashingtonA100.250.0975.0072.280.130.04
DelawareCAA0.000.090.009.93-0.00-0.08
MinnesotaB100.280.0981.8267.100.180.03
IowaB100.000.0969.2359.380.000.02
FloridaSEC0.250.0963.6463.570.070.03
HofstraCAA0.250.0963.6472.530.070.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.470.0940.0039.57-0.09-0.02
Notre DameACC0.210.0992.3176.490.180.05
MissouriSEC0.430.0940.0031.08-0.09-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.230.0970.0060.900.090.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0078.960.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0740.0035.16-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0728.5737.92-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0716.6742.31-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0754.5553.530.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0723.0837.48-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0716.6734.31-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0766.6759.230.000.01
VMISC0.000.0730.0037.64-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.530.0733.3338.87-0.18-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0718.1840.13-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0754.5552.030.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0736.3646.91-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0736.3648.14-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0730.7728.68-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0730.0039.47-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0740.0046.49-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0750.0053.970.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0730.0043.24-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0722.2230.02-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.079.0927.27-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0730.0034.58-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0763.6467.090.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0766.6768.320.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.250.060.0011.41-0.25-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0053.140.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.510.0645.4540.42-0.05-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.68-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0645.4543.89-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0677.7865.690.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0618.1825.25-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4545.04-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.470.0644.4449.70-0.05-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.250.0650.0038.170.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0070.750.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0669.2349.090.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0646.1527.98-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0672.7351.440.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.510.0663.6463.560.140.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0663.6448.370.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0620.0030.73-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.510.0620.0030.74-0.30-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0644.4437.27-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0676.9261.140.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0614.2924.49-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0690.0067.240.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.060.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0052.340.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0672.7366.770.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.250.0681.8273.140.160.03
George MasonA100.480.0640.0035.11-0.10-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.250.0666.6763.250.080.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0061.930.000.01
OaklandHorz0.470.0625.0032.52-0.23-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0637.5027.34-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.210.0666.6772.060.070.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0658.3352.950.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3368.180.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0658.3353.730.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0622.2237.17-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0051.670.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.430.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0683.3363.670.000.02
Kansas St.B120.430.0663.6440.460.12-0.01
MichiganB100.210.0654.5538.840.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0663.6460.870.000.01
OregonP120.000.0672.7359.080.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0670.0050.870.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0670.0063.990.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0660.0046.140.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0654.5544.430.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0681.8279.740.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.210.0670.0060.650.090.01
West VirginiaB120.480.0691.6775.020.400.03
AmericanPat0.000.0358.3362.840.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6736.73-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.50-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0338.4643.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0336.3652.83-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.280.0388.8971.220.220.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.0318.1829.19-0.16-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.0315.3842.08-0.17-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0360.0039.080.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.0047.08-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.250.0366.6771.740.080.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0082.880.000.02
MaineAE0.000.0310.0022.50-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.0342.8648.78-0.04-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0354.5549.960.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.730.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0372.7354.600.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0336.3638.25-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.0341.6750.23-0.040.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0363.6461.170.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5036.86-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.250.0375.0077.160.130.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0090.740.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.250.0381.8281.530.160.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0370.0051.930.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.210.0350.0050.910.000.00
BYUWCC0.210.0372.7369.190.100.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.0316.6723.25-0.14-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.230.0355.5660.360.030.01
GonzagaWCC0.210.0390.9191.130.170.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.030.007.90-0.21-0.03
IUPUISum0.210.0325.0030.05-0.11-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.310.000.03
MassachusettsA100.250.0350.0051.310.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.250.0316.6737.92-0.17-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0369.2367.120.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6745.070.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6743.710.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0392.3157.280.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.0355.5674.770.030.01
San Diego St.MWC0.210.0375.0075.030.110.01
Texas TechB120.250.0375.0046.190.13-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.210.0350.0050.730.000.00
UNLVMWC0.210.0370.0056.050.090.00
USCP120.000.0363.6440.290.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.0336.3640.29-0.06-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0074.660.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0345.4529.49-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.250.0333.3343.54-0.08-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0391.6789.800.000.02