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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:241.0
Current RPI:241
Expected SOS:324
Current SOS:324
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:280



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15241.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Xavier (47.0)BEA83-59L0%0.0
11-12Furman (339.0)SCA75-64L0%0.0
11-16Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH87-78W100%0.0
11-23Missouri (49.0)SECA72-63L0%0.0
11-25Northwestern (123.0)B10A72-59L0%0.0
11-28IUPUI (322.0)SumN54-61W100%0.0
11-29Morehead St. (141.0)OVCN86-82W100%0.0
12-4Wofford (153.0)SCH62-65L0%0.0
12-7The Citadel (345.0)SCA55-67W100%0.0
12-16Duke (9.0)ACCA85-66L0%0.0
12-19Georgia (74.0)SECA58-49L0%0.0
1-2Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA66-65L0%0.0
1-8UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH77-81L0%0.0
1-11Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH69-81L0%0.0
1-15Winthrop (168.0)BSthA51-56W100%0.0
1-18Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA58-67W100%0.0
1-22Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH76-78L0%0.0
1-25Campbell (316.0)BSthH66-48W100%0.0
1-29Longwood (337.0)BSthA62-82W100%0.0
2-1Radford (240.0)BSthA72-73W100%0.0
2-5VMI (211.0)BSthH104-108L0%0.0
2-8High Point (172.0)BSthH80-76W100%0.0
2-11Liberty (311.0)BSthA52-68W100%0.0
2-15Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA75-60L0%0.0
2-19Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH79-70W100%0.0
2-22Winthrop (168.0)BSthH85-79W100%0.0
2-26Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthA76-78W100%0.0
3-1UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthA83-71L0%0.0
3-5Longwood (337.0)BSthN81-65W100%0.0
3-7VMI (211.0)BSthN90-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth26.2626.2654.1154.112.162.16
WinthropBSth4.234.2360.7160.710.910.91
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.214.2157.1457.140.600.60
UNC AshevilleBSth4.144.1444.4444.44-0.46-0.46
PresbyterianBSth4.124.1214.2914.29-2.94-2.94
Charleston SouthernBSth4.104.1032.0032.00-1.48-1.48
VMIBSth4.054.0552.0052.000.160.16
LongwoodBSth3.973.9715.3815.38-2.75-2.75
RadfordBSth2.512.5162.0762.070.610.61
High PointBSth2.482.4851.8551.850.090.09
CampbellBSth2.462.4633.3333.33-0.82-0.82
LibertyBSth2.462.4628.5728.57-1.05-1.05
The CitadelSC1.961.9614.2914.29-1.40-1.40
WoffordSC1.961.9657.1457.140.280.28
FurmanSC1.871.8723.0823.08-1.00-1.00
MissouriSEC1.771.7765.6265.620.550.55
GeorgiaSEC1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
DukeACC1.721.7275.7675.760.890.89
NorthwesternB101.721.7240.6240.62-0.32-0.32
IUPUISum1.721.7210.7110.71-1.35-1.35
Delaware St.MEAC1.701.7022.2222.22-0.94-0.94
XavierBE1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
Morehead St.OVC1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
JacksonvilleASun1.671.6737.0437.04-0.43-0.43
Western CarolinaSC0.380.3851.6151.610.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.350.3538.7138.71-0.08-0.08
Appalachian St.SC0.280.2819.2319.23-0.17-0.17
ChattanoogaSC0.260.2651.7251.720.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.250.2551.5251.520.010.01
SamfordSC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
DavidsonSC0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
ClemsonACC0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
DelawareCAA0.180.1873.5373.530.090.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1823.3323.33-0.09-0.09
ElonSC0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Georgia TechACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1483.8783.870.100.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.060.06
MinnesotaB100.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
MississippiSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
St. John'sBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
FloridaSEC0.110.1194.1294.120.090.09
NebraskaB100.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
IowaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
LipscombASun0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
BrownIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01