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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:208.9
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:261
Current SOS:213
Current Record:9-12
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:219
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12175.24.19%
14-13189.821.72%
13-14205.136.39%
12-15221.125.92%
11-16238.39.89%
10-17256.01.78%
9-18274.90.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Iowa (7.3)B10A76-59L0%0.0
11-16Vanderbilt (43.7)SECA98-62L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee (113.4)SECA89-64L0%0.0
11-24George Washington (52.6)A10A94-65L0%0.0
11-27Southeastern Louisiana (334.5)SlndN77-68W100%0.0
11-28Army (210.4)PatA103-98L0%0.0
12-2Presbyterian (330.2)BSthA76-87W100%0.0
12-5High Point (176.9)BSthH64-66L0%0.0
12-12Furman (161.5)SCA53-73W100%0.0
12-16LSU (82.1)SECA78-57L0%0.0
12-21VMI (330.9)SCH75-76L0%0.0
12-31Coastal Carolina (167.0)BSthH65-61W100%0.0
1-2Longwood (326.4)BSthA66-67W100%0.0
1-6Campbell (326.1)BSthH71-68W100%0.0
1-9Radford (162.2)BSthH83-61W100%0.0
1-16UNC Asheville (139.6)BSthA75-69L0%0.0
1-20Winthrop (165.9)BSthH58-71L0%0.0
1-24Radford (162.2)BSthA69-59L0%0.0
1-27Liberty (278.4)BSthH55-69L0%0.0
1-30Charleston Southern (264.2)BSthA59-68W100%0.0
2-3High Point (176.9)BSthA74-79W100%0.0
2-6Presbyterian (330.2)BSthH0-082%10.1
2-11Campbell (326.1)BSthA0-061%3.0
2-13Coastal Carolina (167.0)BSthA0-025%-7.3
2-18Charleston Southern (264.2)BSthH0-075%7.2
2-20Longwood (326.4)BSthH0-080%9.0
2-27Liberty (278.4)BSthA0-054%1.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth26.4526.4748.5151.81-0.790.96
PresbyterianBSth3.214.7827.7828.89-1.43-2.02
CampbellBSth3.214.7131.5831.29-1.18-1.76
LibertyBSth3.214.7128.5729.80-1.37-1.90
High PointBSth5.344.7158.8262.430.941.17
Charleston SouthernBSth3.144.6826.3230.67-1.49-1.81
RadfordBSth5.364.6852.6353.890.280.36
LongwoodBSth3.094.6820.0023.31-1.85-2.50
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.154.6861.1159.060.700.85
UNC AshevilleBSth3.263.0361.9064.200.780.86
WinthropBSth3.142.9663.1661.890.830.70
FurmanSC2.682.1057.1455.700.380.24
VMISC2.612.0611.7615.60-2.00-1.42
TennesseeSEC2.602.0447.6246.53-0.12-0.14
VanderbiltSEC2.491.9457.1461.480.360.45
George WashingtonA102.491.9176.1970.731.300.79
ArmyPat2.491.9152.3854.420.120.17
LSUSEC2.441.9161.9058.090.580.31
IowaB102.381.8580.9579.211.471.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.381.8511.1126.26-1.85-0.88
WoffordSC0.300.3138.1043.38-0.07-0.04
The CitadelSC0.240.2835.0031.39-0.07-0.10
East Tennessee St.SC0.350.2757.1457.920.050.04
Western CarolinaSC0.300.2425.0029.91-0.15-0.10
AuburnSEC0.220.2242.8637.22-0.03-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.170.2250.0054.850.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.280.2181.8281.000.180.13
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.2130.0033.57-0.10-0.07
RichmondA100.170.2052.3853.670.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.290.2060.0056.080.060.02
Penn St.B100.290.1947.8343.65-0.01-0.02
VCUA100.170.1977.2776.770.090.10
KentuckySEC0.160.1872.7369.690.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1861.9059.920.040.03
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1785.7184.560.120.12
AlabamaSEC0.220.1657.1452.310.030.01
FloridaSEC0.160.1568.1867.800.060.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1421.0529.17-0.11-0.06
MercerSC0.120.1471.4370.590.050.06
SamfordSC0.170.1440.9143.36-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1475.0071.270.090.06
William & MaryCAA0.180.1470.0069.350.070.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.240.1452.1749.340.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.180.1368.1863.240.060.04
Wake ForestACC0.170.1345.4542.13-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.170.1365.2265.220.050.04
MarquetteBE0.170.1365.2256.540.050.02
George MasonA100.110.1336.3635.32-0.03-0.04
DaytonA100.220.1285.7181.210.150.08
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1285.7176.020.080.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1126.3233.83-0.06-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.120.1123.8125.04-0.06-0.05
DrexelCAA0.180.1014.2918.59-0.13-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.180.1052.1747.260.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1036.3642.18-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1076.1979.640.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.170.1056.5253.440.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1027.2730.42-0.05-0.04
LamarSlnd0.120.1033.3332.69-0.04-0.03
MaineAE0.110.1036.3635.58-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.110.1068.1863.710.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1035.0036.61-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.110.0931.8232.71-0.04-0.03
LafayettePat0.160.0923.8125.23-0.09-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.0918.7533.16-0.07-0.03
NebraskaB100.170.0952.1751.550.010.00
PurdueB100.160.0982.6178.230.110.05
MississippiSEC0.050.0963.6456.050.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0942.8641.75-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0936.3630.98-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0783.3380.130.040.04
NevadaMWC0.060.0757.8956.100.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0780.9579.160.040.04
ClemsonACC0.060.0763.6462.330.020.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0739.1342.27-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0731.5833.50-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0718.1822.84-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.060.0752.6347.730.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.130.0761.9054.010.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0754.5555.190.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0758.3354.130.010.01
ButlerBE0.120.0768.1866.480.040.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0761.9058.220.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0768.4265.480.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0735.2933.93-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0750.0046.870.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.110.0740.0042.58-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.0769.5768.670.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0750.0045.740.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.074.7614.00-0.10-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.050.0768.7573.150.020.03
SienaMAAC0.110.0765.2266.710.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0747.6252.95-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0734.7841.60-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0733.3332.42-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0720.8325.00-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0633.3333.55-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0621.7424.61-0.07-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0652.1754.440.000.01
BucknellPat0.110.0652.3856.750.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0616.6724.28-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.050.0642.8643.53-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0640.9139.71-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0630.0036.11-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0631.8234.36-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0629.4138.46-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0610.0015.31-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0618.7526.10-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.0673.6870.400.060.03
CincinnatiAmer0.120.0673.9173.090.060.03
Georgia TechACC0.120.0654.5552.770.010.00
TCUB120.120.0645.4537.84-0.01-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0682.6177.360.000.03
MichiganB100.050.0672.7367.970.020.02
Michigan St.B100.110.0682.6181.380.070.04
RutgersB100.110.0622.7320.68-0.06-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0657.8955.420.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0666.6758.770.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0436.8437.31-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0460.0061.320.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0426.0925.57-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0354.5553.030.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0340.9139.23-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0370.0068.920.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0342.8635.05-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0326.0927.58-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.460.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0352.3853.800.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0321.0523.70-0.04-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0355.5650.840.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0353.3355.190.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0350.0056.530.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0319.0521.34-0.03-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0378.2680.340.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0341.6746.85-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0347.3750.50-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0363.1666.160.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0368.7574.720.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.7922.52-0.04-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0322.7324.84-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0347.8344.51-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0372.7368.840.020.01
MarylandB100.050.0386.9681.750.040.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0326.0927.82-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.490.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0366.6765.400.020.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0330.0034.84-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0327.7829.23-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0360.8755.900.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0376.1967.340.030.01
DePaulBE0.050.0336.3634.96-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0345.0044.39-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0357.8954.300.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0377.2776.120.030.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.010.020.01
KansasB120.050.0380.9577.010.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0322.7324.28-0.03-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0321.0520.90-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0342.8639.88-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0368.1869.350.020.01
OklahomaB120.050.0390.4884.910.040.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0340.9143.01-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0354.5555.960.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0381.8277.420.000.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0340.0042.55-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0372.7368.660.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0335.0034.92-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.8320.11-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0370.0069.090.000.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0327.2724.41-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.0082.450.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0365.0060.810.020.01
TexasB120.050.0368.1861.760.020.01
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.190.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.020.030.02