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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:146.0
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:172
Current SOS:172
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14146.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15LSU (57.0)SECA93-82L0%0.0
11-17College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA67-80W100%0.0
11-21Clemson (106.0)ACCN72-70W100%0.0
11-23Seton Hall (97.0)BEN85-67L0%0.0
11-24Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAN58-46L0%0.0
12-2Arizona (5.0)P12A91-65L0%0.0
12-13Furman (293.0)SCH74-68W100%0.0
12-17Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA68-65L0%0.0
12-22Purdue (55.0)B10A84-89W100%0.0
12-31Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA64-81W100%0.0
1-3UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA80-55L0%0.0
1-8Radford (154.0)BSthH88-85W100%0.0
1-10Winthrop (210.0)BSthH65-64W100%0.0
1-14High Point (89.0)BSthH72-84L0%0.0
1-17Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthA67-82W100%0.0
1-22Longwood (316.0)BSthH79-67W100%0.0
1-24Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA93-80L0%0.0
1-26Campbell (323.0)BSthA78-59L0%0.0
1-31Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH66-64W100%0.0
2-3Longwood (316.0)BSthA78-87W100%0.0
2-6Campbell (323.0)BSthH73-65W100%0.0
2-9UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH89-92L0%0.0
2-14Winthrop (210.0)BSthA71-68L0%0.0
2-18High Point (89.0)BSthA83-62L0%0.0
2-21Liberty (347.0)BSthH77-67W100%0.0
2-26Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH91-81W100%0.0
2-28Radford (154.0)BSthA72-62L0%0.0
3-4Campbell (323.0)BSthN72-64W100%0.0
3-6High Point (89.0)BSthN71-72W100%0.0
3-7Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthN73-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth26.6626.6656.9256.923.693.69
Coastal CarolinaBSth6.056.0573.0873.082.792.79
High PointBSth5.995.9968.0068.002.152.15
CampbellBSth5.965.9623.0823.08-3.21-3.21
WinthropBSth4.514.5155.5655.560.500.50
UNC AshevilleBSth4.464.4638.4638.46-1.03-1.03
LongwoodBSth4.424.4230.0030.00-1.77-1.77
Charleston SouthernBSth4.364.3660.0060.000.870.87
RadfordBSth4.324.3262.9662.961.121.12
LibertyBSth2.822.8214.8114.81-1.99-1.99
PresbyterianBSth2.822.8222.2222.22-1.57-1.57
ClemsonACC1.841.8453.3353.330.120.12
College of CharlestonCAA1.811.8128.1228.12-0.79-0.79
LSUSEC1.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
FurmanSC1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
Old DominionCUSA1.691.6976.6776.670.900.90
ArizonaP121.671.6790.9190.911.361.36
JacksonvilleASun1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
PurdueB101.671.6765.6265.620.520.52
Seton HallBE1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.340.3459.3859.380.060.06
AuburnSEC0.250.2541.1841.18-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.230.2369.7069.700.090.09
UNC GreensboroSC0.220.2226.6726.67-0.10-0.10
SamfordSC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
MississippiSEC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
WoffordSC0.170.1781.2581.250.110.11
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1165.5265.520.040.04
North FloridaASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
DavidsonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
MercerSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.110.1129.6329.63-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00