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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:208.2
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:267
Current SOS:264
Current Record:7-10
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:176



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10138.90.25%
17-11153.22.14%
16-12170.18.95%
15-13188.220.12%
14-14205.226.87%
13-15221.923.64%
12-16238.012.49%
11-17252.64.41%
10-18268.90.92%
9-19285.20.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11SMU (29.0)AmerA72-44L0%0.0
11-14Pittsburgh (56.6)ACCA99-80L0%0.0
11-18Eastern Michigan (84.3)MACN76-68L0%0.0
11-19Howard (324.7)MEACN78-94W100%0.0
11-25Georgia (47.1)SECA77-59L0%0.0
12-3VMI (326.1)SCA68-86W100%0.0
12-7Hampton (307.5)MEACH69-63W100%0.0
12-10Furman (130.1)SCH65-68L0%0.0
12-18Nebraska (92.6)B10A62-70W100%0.0
12-21Kansas St. (63.0)B12A67-54L0%0.0
12-29High Point (253.8)BSthH64-71L0%0.0
12-31UNC Asheville (87.7)BSthA90-85L0%0.0
1-4Radford (201.4)BSthA59-70W100%0.0
1-7Charleston Southern (294.5)BSthH79-75W100%0.0
1-11Campbell (272.5)BSthH60-76L0%0.0
1-14Longwood (324.1)BSthA79-85W100%0.0
1-19Liberty (194.4)BSthA65-62L0%0.0
1-21Presbyterian (343.9)BSthH0-095%18.5
1-26Winthrop (88.9)BSthH0-041%-2.5
1-28Charleston Southern (294.5)BSthA0-058%2.4
2-1Campbell (272.5)BSthA0-057%2.0
2-4Longwood (324.1)BSthH0-091%14.8
2-9Liberty (194.4)BSthH0-064%4.0
2-11Winthrop (88.9)BSthA0-022%-8.7
2-15Radford (201.4)BSthH0-072%6.6
2-18Presbyterian (343.9)BSthA0-087%12.3
2-23UNC Asheville (87.7)BSthH0-039%-3.1
2-25High Point (253.8)BSthA0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth26.5126.4846.9952.17-1.601.15
UNC AshevilleBSth3.574.6958.8268.470.631.73
WinthropBSth0.734.6875.0075.980.362.43
PresbyterianBSth0.734.6812.5013.36-0.55-3.43
Charleston SouthernBSth3.474.6721.4331.37-1.98-1.74
RadfordBSth3.404.6543.7547.21-0.42-0.26
LibertyBSth3.484.6543.7550.11-0.430.01
CampbellBSth3.414.6540.0040.29-0.68-0.90
High PointBSth3.294.6233.3339.73-1.10-0.95
LongwoodBSth3.294.6226.6725.37-1.54-2.27
FurmanSC3.202.1450.0056.880.000.29
VMISC3.222.1114.2915.82-2.30-1.44
GeorgiaSEC3.211.9562.5057.090.800.28
HamptonMEAC3.021.9128.5741.77-1.30-0.31
PittsburghACC3.111.8561.1149.990.69-0.00
SMUAmer3.121.8578.9577.071.801.00
Eastern MichiganMAC3.091.8450.0054.920.000.18
HowardMEAC2.941.8213.3329.50-2.16-0.75
Kansas St.B123.041.8276.4761.011.610.40
NebraskaB102.941.7950.0043.160.00-0.24
UNC GreensboroSC0.360.3970.5964.080.150.11
USC UpstateASun0.270.2652.9451.300.020.01
The CitadelSC0.280.2633.3328.99-0.09-0.11
Western CarolinaSC0.270.2623.5321.80-0.14-0.14
Virginia TechACC0.370.2377.7862.530.210.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.2037.5044.55-0.05-0.02
SamfordSC0.180.1964.7160.050.050.04
MercerSC0.270.1933.3343.06-0.09-0.03
KansasB120.340.1894.4481.800.300.11
William & MaryCAA0.180.1646.6747.54-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1689.4779.540.080.10
AkronMAC0.180.1683.3376.940.120.09
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1647.3741.50-0.01-0.03
VCUA100.260.1673.6870.630.120.06
ClemsonACC0.260.1661.1159.230.060.03
West VirginiaB120.180.1583.3380.700.120.09
MichiganB100.340.1563.1658.150.090.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.200.1428.5734.62-0.08-0.04
DaytonA100.180.1376.4776.940.100.07
Ball St.MAC0.090.1364.7156.100.030.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.1362.5060.090.020.03
StetsonASun0.180.1329.4130.28-0.07-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1388.8986.040.140.09
AlabamaSEC0.100.1364.7157.700.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.1375.0074.870.040.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.1370.5973.700.080.06
WoffordSC0.180.1331.2540.50-0.07-0.02
ElonCAA0.170.1350.0051.340.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.1247.0648.42-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1252.9450.580.010.00
Texas TechB120.170.1277.7865.330.100.04
Ohio St.B100.170.1263.1658.020.040.02
HoustonAmer0.090.1268.4268.060.030.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.1284.2180.600.060.07
MarylandB100.340.1288.8973.830.260.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1022.2225.60-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1018.7535.73-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1025.0031.85-0.05-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.180.1060.0066.110.040.03
CreightonBE0.180.1094.4484.720.160.07
IllinoisB100.000.1061.1153.360.000.01
NavyPat0.180.1044.4446.61-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.1012.5019.98-0.07-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.1012.5033.82-0.07-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.100.0014.44-0.10-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1060.0072.810.020.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.1014.2929.27-0.06-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1044.4442.60-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0962.5063.120.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0927.7824.32-0.04-0.05
IndianaB100.170.0968.4264.610.060.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.0917.6529.60-0.11-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0961.1155.580.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.0952.6353.100.010.01
SyracuseACC0.180.0957.8952.520.030.00
MarquetteBE0.260.0966.6761.530.090.02
TexasB120.080.0938.8935.38-0.02-0.03
TCUB120.070.0976.4763.630.040.02
RichmondA100.200.0761.1157.870.040.01
ColgatePat0.090.0721.0527.27-0.05-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.090.0721.4323.06-0.05-0.04
DrexelCAA0.090.0733.3333.71-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.090.0764.7156.510.030.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0726.3229.57-0.04-0.03
MaineAE0.090.0720.0020.95-0.06-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0735.0036.31-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0756.2558.170.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0764.7162.600.030.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0735.2944.13-0.03-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0740.0051.38-0.020.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0712.5024.37-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0656.2551.810.010.00
LamarSlnd0.090.0646.6747.34-0.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0611.1122.97-0.07-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0660.0053.460.000.00
OhioMAC0.100.0666.6767.550.030.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0652.9452.870.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.090.0640.0040.47-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0631.2536.88-0.04-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.0635.0039.76-0.05-0.01
IUPUISum0.190.0638.8943.16-0.04-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0643.7543.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0655.0049.300.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0663.1657.700.000.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0678.9569.160.050.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0640.0045.18-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.180.0637.5044.96-0.04-0.01
George WashingtonA100.180.0652.6348.070.01-0.00
Penn St.B100.080.0657.8949.820.01-0.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0666.6755.390.030.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0677.7874.930.050.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0688.8987.510.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0682.3574.990.060.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0661.1147.020.02-0.00
BaylorB120.080.0694.1280.880.070.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0647.3734.50-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0688.8986.560.060.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0635.2941.77-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0664.7161.830.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0684.2179.280.050.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0673.6867.200.030.02
OklahomaB120.080.0647.0641.20-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0650.0053.120.000.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0622.2220.60-0.04-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0658.8251.180.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0682.3576.300.050.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0328.5731.47-0.04-0.01
RiderMAAC0.100.0357.8952.960.020.00
Stony BrookAE0.100.0355.5654.430.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0335.2935.14-0.03-0.01
DetroitHorz0.100.0316.6723.07-0.07-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0347.0648.10-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0326.3236.97-0.05-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5034.55-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.100.0375.0077.360.050.02
AmericanPat0.090.0327.7830.73-0.04-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0346.1546.15-0.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0352.6348.210.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0358.3361.560.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0352.6352.920.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0364.7169.700.030.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0378.9570.150.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0361.1162.280.020.01
PurdueB100.000.0378.9576.890.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0355.5642.900.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0320.0024.21-0.05-0.02
South DakotaSum0.090.0355.0054.820.010.00
SouthernSWAC0.090.0337.5051.21-0.020.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0331.5833.34-0.03-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0361.1164.320.020.01
UCLAP120.090.0395.0089.690.080.02
WisconsinB100.000.0383.3381.320.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7870.290.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0362.5062.710.020.01
LSUSEC0.000.0352.9438.780.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0361.1155.030.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0370.5958.250.000.00
MissouriSEC0.090.0329.4125.93-0.04-0.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0372.2274.630.040.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0352.9451.020.000.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0352.6358.980.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0353.3361.620.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0352.9450.600.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0377.7873.860.000.01
DuquesneA100.080.0347.3741.47-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0352.9450.950.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0355.5660.070.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5733.61-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0370.5960.550.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0335.2941.48-0.02-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0368.4252.190.030.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0384.2176.540.050.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0317.6535.33-0.05-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0358.8264.790.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.2928.97-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0355.5648.060.01-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0313.3327.07-0.05-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0377.7867.020.000.01
USCP120.070.0380.0071.930.040.01
Washington St.P120.080.0347.0633.39-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0326.6727.53-0.04-0.01
YaleIvy0.080.0360.0065.720.020.01