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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:186.0
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:247
Current SOS:247
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14186.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11SMU (13.0)AmerA72-44L0%0.0
11-14Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA99-80L0%0.0
11-18Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACN76-68L0%0.0
11-19Howard (337.0)MEACN78-94W100%0.0
11-25Georgia (52.0)SECA77-59L0%0.0
12-3VMI (329.0)SCA68-86W100%0.0
12-7Hampton (283.0)MEACH69-63W100%0.0
12-10Furman (96.0)SCH65-68L0%0.0
12-18Nebraska (107.0)B10A62-70W100%0.0
12-21Kansas St. (57.0)B12A67-54L0%0.0
12-29High Point (236.0)BSthH64-71L0%0.0
12-31UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA90-85L0%0.0
1-4Radford (227.0)BSthA59-70W100%0.0
1-7Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH79-75W100%0.0
1-11Campbell (246.0)BSthH60-76L0%0.0
1-14Longwood (343.0)BSthA79-85W100%0.0
1-19Liberty (172.0)BSthA65-62L0%0.0
1-21Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH78-61W100%0.0
1-26Winthrop (70.0)BSthH70-72L0%0.0
1-28Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA76-85W100%0.0
2-1Campbell (246.0)BSthA68-80W100%0.0
2-4Longwood (343.0)BSthH90-64W100%0.0
2-9Liberty (172.0)BSthH87-92L0%0.0
2-11Winthrop (70.0)BSthA77-71L0%0.0
2-15Radford (227.0)BSthH70-59W100%0.0
2-18Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA56-84W100%0.0
2-23UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH81-76W100%0.0
2-25High Point (236.0)BSthA86-88W100%0.0
3-2High Point (236.0)BSthN91-55W100%0.0
3-3Winthrop (70.0)BSthA80-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth26.5926.5956.7656.763.593.59
WinthropBSth6.156.1577.7877.783.423.42
High PointBSth5.975.9744.0044.00-0.72-0.72
CampbellBSth4.664.6644.8344.83-0.48-0.48
Charleston SouthernBSth4.564.5634.6234.62-1.40-1.40
RadfordBSth4.514.5142.8642.86-0.64-0.64
UNC AshevilleBSth4.484.4871.4371.431.921.92
PresbyterianBSth4.474.4711.5411.54-3.44-3.44
LibertyBSth4.454.4551.8551.850.160.16
LongwoodBSth4.424.4215.3815.38-3.06-3.06
FurmanSC2.012.0162.0762.070.480.48
VMISC1.951.9514.8114.81-1.37-1.37
GeorgiaSEC1.811.8154.8454.840.180.18
HamptonMEAC1.801.8044.4444.44-0.20-0.20
SMUAmer1.721.7287.8887.881.301.30
PittsburghACC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Eastern MichiganMAC1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
HowardMEAC1.701.7025.8125.81-0.82-0.82
Kansas St.B121.701.7059.3859.380.320.32
NebraskaB101.671.6737.9337.93-0.40-0.40
UNC GreensboroSC0.380.3870.9770.970.160.16
Western CarolinaSC0.260.2623.3323.33-0.14-0.14
Virginia TechACC0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
The CitadelSC0.230.2330.0030.00-0.09-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.230.2346.4346.43-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
KansasB120.160.1687.5087.500.120.12
William & MaryCAA0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
DaytonA100.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1278.1278.120.060.06
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Texas TechB120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Saint LouisA100.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01