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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:214.6
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:188
Current Record:7-10
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:234
Expected OOC SOS:83



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10100.00.01%
17-11121.30.14%
16-12138.91.30%
15-13161.54.67%
14-14181.613.04%
13-15201.022.08%
12-16219.126.46%
11-17236.019.29%
10-18253.29.71%
9-19269.92.86%
8-20287.50.41%
7-21302.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Miami FL (28.3)ACCA77-45L0%0.0
11-13Florida (25.9)SECA116-74L0%0.0
11-15UCF (67.3)AmerA68-65L0%0.0
11-24Wright St. (110.7)HorzA67-47L0%0.0
11-25Fairfield (217.8)MAACN64-75L0%0.0
11-26Jacksonville (300.2)ASunN106-99L0%0.0
12-2USC Upstate (336.2)ASunH87-66W100%0.0
12-6Auburn (17.4)SECA80-55L0%0.0
12-9Maryland (43.3)B10A82-60L0%0.0
12-17Hampton (287.5)MEACA79-80W100%0.0
12-30Liberty (224.1)BSthH58-55W100%0.0
1-3Campbell (275.7)BSthA80-82W100%0.0
1-6Longwood (332.4)BSthA79-73L0%0.0
1-9High Point (232.0)BSthH62-45W100%0.0
1-12Radford (135.1)BSthH59-54W100%0.0
1-15Winthrop (166.4)BSthA90-67L0%0.0
1-18Presbyterian (324.6)BSthH61-53W100%0.0
1-21Charleston Southern (313.1)BSthA0-050%0.1
1-24UNC Asheville (157.8)BSthA0-024%-8.0
1-27Longwood (332.4)BSthH0-088%12.9
2-1Radford (135.1)BSthA0-026%-7.3
2-3Charleston Southern (313.1)BSthH0-072%6.5
2-7Campbell (275.7)BSthH0-058%2.2
2-10Liberty (224.1)BSthA0-025%-7.7
2-15Winthrop (166.4)BSthH0-035%-4.3
2-18High Point (232.0)BSthA0-030%-6.0
2-22Presbyterian (324.6)BSthA0-065%4.2
2-24UNC Asheville (157.8)BSthH0-044%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth26.4426.4846.0347.14-2.10-1.51
UNC AshevilleBSth0.624.6550.0054.880.000.45
CampbellBSth3.394.6546.6747.29-0.23-0.25
Charleston SouthernBSth0.624.6420.0027.88-0.37-2.05
WinthropBSth3.384.6442.8656.80-0.480.63
RadfordBSth3.304.6264.7162.540.971.16
LibertyBSth3.394.6256.2558.820.420.81
LongwoodBSth3.294.6212.5014.24-2.47-3.30
PresbyterianBSth3.394.6231.2528.52-1.27-1.98
High PointBSth3.304.6142.8648.91-0.47-0.10
USC UpstateASun3.112.0511.7618.65-2.38-1.28
JacksonvilleASun3.181.9129.4131.25-1.31-0.72
AuburnSEC3.041.8888.8976.272.360.99
FairfieldMAAC3.101.8535.2942.14-0.91-0.29
Wright St.Horz3.101.8566.6768.141.030.67
FloridaSEC2.941.8172.2270.601.310.75
HamptonMEAC2.941.7921.4343.37-1.68-0.24
MarylandB102.941.7968.4264.121.080.50
Miami FLACC2.941.7975.0067.951.470.64
UCFAmer2.941.7966.6759.530.980.34
South Carolina St.MEAC0.340.3327.7831.67-0.15-0.12
VMISC0.250.2625.0024.17-0.13-0.13
UNC GreensboroSC0.260.2568.7567.640.100.09
StetsonASun0.250.2333.3336.92-0.08-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.260.2266.6755.930.090.03
VanderbiltSEC0.160.2136.8435.55-0.04-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.2068.4257.770.060.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.1955.5656.710.030.03
North FloridaASun0.330.1931.5835.15-0.12-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.260.1972.2268.920.120.07
Virginia TechACC0.170.1868.4257.780.060.03
East CarolinaAmer0.250.1642.1132.48-0.04-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.160.1673.6869.610.080.06
AlabamaSEC0.150.1468.4258.990.060.03
The CitadelSC0.190.1318.7518.40-0.12-0.09
Alabama St.SWAC0.180.1316.6724.29-0.12-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1323.5325.63-0.10-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.1357.8966.250.010.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.1316.6724.91-0.05-0.07
LipscombASun0.080.1352.9459.360.000.02
NJITASun0.160.1338.8942.60-0.04-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.270.1364.7159.980.080.03
FurmanSC0.100.1366.6768.500.030.05
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1338.8935.35-0.02-0.04
WoffordSC0.100.1368.7563.620.040.04
PittsburghACC0.180.1340.0030.87-0.04-0.05
RiderMAAC0.280.1365.0065.370.080.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.260.1315.7920.92-0.18-0.07
Penn St.B100.170.1361.9055.770.040.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.1331.5830.00-0.03-0.05
HoustonAmer0.170.1278.9572.990.100.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1227.7840.880.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.160.1284.2173.210.110.06
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1261.1151.900.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.1031.5832.72-0.03-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.1052.9452.620.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.170.1058.8249.760.03-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0918.7536.76-0.05-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.0945.0047.05-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.160.0947.3744.27-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.160.0944.4454.89-0.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0944.4441.15-0.01-0.02
MichiganB100.160.0975.0070.270.080.04
MinnesotaB100.240.0963.6457.640.070.01
CornellIvy0.160.0933.3333.36-0.05-0.03
Ohio St.B100.160.0980.9576.520.100.05
James MadisonCAA0.160.0925.0028.25-0.08-0.04
PurdueB100.160.0990.4888.380.130.07
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0989.4785.520.120.06
ConnecticutAmer0.150.0952.6347.390.01-0.00
TempleAmer0.150.0952.6351.730.010.00
MissouriSEC0.150.0966.6763.200.050.02
ArkansasSEC0.150.0968.4264.200.060.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0973.6867.950.040.03
MississippiSEC0.150.0952.6345.860.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0766.6765.620.030.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0745.0041.34-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0758.8261.440.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0747.3745.870.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0752.6350.250.010.00
VCUA100.100.0760.0059.690.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0750.0052.440.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.079.5217.940.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.0711.1115.30-0.14-0.05
Saint LouisA100.090.0747.3746.91-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0727.7834.50-0.04-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0722.2227.33-0.05-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.180.0670.0068.420.070.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0678.9576.130.050.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.060.003.12-0.09-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0620.0032.26-0.05-0.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0647.3743.04-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0652.6351.700.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0666.6765.530.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0670.0071.230.030.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0610.5327.31-0.07-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0650.0051.480.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0652.9459.250.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0680.0078.860.050.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0610.0019.62-0.07-0.04
George WashingtonA100.180.0645.0043.49-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.100.0694.4485.440.090.04
UABCUSA0.160.0661.1164.130.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0644.4445.980.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0620.0023.360.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0621.0525.98-0.04-0.03
ElonCAA0.080.0652.6351.090.000.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0625.0027.94-0.04-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0642.1145.97-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0663.1666.880.020.02
IUPUIHorz0.080.0627.7829.84-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.160.0647.3748.17-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0621.0521.99-0.05-0.03
NevadaMWC0.080.0685.7182.070.060.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0657.1453.220.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0666.6773.240.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0661.9065.160.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0683.3381.410.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0690.4888.940.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0630.0031.690.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.080.0658.8262.450.010.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0621.0523.50-0.04-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.160.0652.6343.120.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0677.7871.650.090.03
Murray St.OVC0.150.0670.5975.930.060.03
New HampshireAE0.160.0629.4138.15-0.07-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0668.4255.060.000.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0665.0058.490.020.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0685.0083.180.050.04
NebraskaB100.080.0666.6759.780.030.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.370.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0670.0070.630.030.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0635.0026.14-0.02-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.270.030.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0678.9577.360.000.03
DukeACC0.160.0689.4785.190.130.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.0672.2274.700.070.03
LSUSEC0.000.0661.1153.160.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.0672.2258.940.070.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0668.4263.980.030.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0333.3337.22-0.03-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.0327.7838.13-0.04-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0375.0070.690.040.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.030.009.15-0.10-0.03
DenverSum0.080.0333.3336.47-0.03-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0368.4254.090.030.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0370.0068.220.030.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0373.6862.720.040.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.620.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.090.000.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.71-0.05-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0345.0045.02-0.01-0.00
XavierBE0.100.0385.7180.080.070.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0360.0060.340.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0340.0042.57-0.02-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.080.0322.2228.67-0.05-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0347.0641.45-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0378.9576.760.050.02
PennIvy0.080.0364.7162.780.020.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0344.4448.91-0.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.080.0366.6767.690.030.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0364.7164.540.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0368.4270.810.030.01
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0350.0053.160.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.010.020.01
ButlerBE0.070.0366.6763.070.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.62-0.04-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.0368.7563.960.030.01
IndianaB100.000.0357.8950.680.000.00
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.03-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
La SalleA100.090.0340.0042.72-0.02-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0377.7869.360.000.01
NavyPat0.090.0360.0055.160.020.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0383.3384.230.060.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.050.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.050.000.01
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.090.0352.9460.270.010.01
RutgersB100.000.0357.8947.140.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0352.9455.040.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6768.700.020.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.070.0338.8946.68-0.02-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.900.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.0053.290.000.00
UMBCAE0.070.0358.8258.360.010.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0384.2178.170.050.02
WisconsinB100.000.0350.0046.260.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.0361.1156.090.000.00
DaytonA100.080.0347.3750.95-0.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0380.9583.260.050.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0357.8959.470.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.037.6920.09-0.07-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0355.0050.370.010.00