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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Gardner Webb

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:221.4
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:233
Current SOS:20
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-875.20.04%
19-994.60.14%
18-10110.20.59%
17-11128.01.72%
16-12144.74.15%
15-13165.48.64%
14-14185.912.54%
13-15206.916.84%
12-16227.117.60%
11-17246.415.43%
10-18264.411.07%
9-19281.86.45%
8-20295.93.07%
7-21309.41.21%
6-22319.80.36%
5-23334.20.11%
4-24333.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gardner Webb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Miami FL (24.3)ACCA77-45L0%0.0
11-13Florida (14.6)SECA116-74L0%0.0
11-15UCF (73.2)AmerA68-65L0%0.0
11-24Wright St. (240.1)HorzA0-034%-5.0
11-25Fairfield (168.0)MAACN0-037%-3.8
11-26Jacksonville (315.7)ASunN0-066%5.1
12-2USC Upstate (259.8)ASunH0-060%3.1
12-6Auburn (91.7)SECA0-09%-16.2
12-9Maryland (25.7)B10A0-03%-23.3
12-17Hampton (281.6)MEACA0-050%0.1
12-30Liberty (192.4)BSthH0-047%-0.9
1-3Campbell (245.2)BSthA0-038%-3.8
1-6Longwood (333.8)BSthA0-074%7.6
1-9High Point (259.1)BSthH0-060%3.0
1-12Radford (222.3)BSthH0-061%3.2
1-15Winthrop (193.8)BSthA0-028%-7.0
1-18Presbyterian (343.3)BSthH0-090%15.7
1-21Charleston Southern (287.3)BSthA0-058%2.3
1-24UNC Asheville (126.6)BSthA0-019%-10.6
1-27Longwood (333.8)BSthH0-087%13.6
2-1Radford (222.3)BSthA0-041%-2.8
2-3Charleston Southern (287.3)BSthH0-076%8.3
2-7Campbell (245.2)BSthH0-057%2.2
2-10Liberty (192.4)BSthA0-028%-6.9
2-15Winthrop (193.8)BSthH0-047%-1.0
2-18High Point (259.1)BSthA0-040%-3.0
2-22Presbyterian (343.3)BSthA0-079%9.7
2-24UNC Asheville (126.6)BSthH0-035%-4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gardner Webb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gardner Webb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gardner Webb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Gardner WebbBSth34.7226.510.0047.70-34.72-1.22
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.670.0063.970.001.31
CampbellBSth0.004.660.0051.320.000.12
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.6633.3335.460.00-1.35
WinthropBSth0.004.660.0054.780.000.45
LongwoodBSth0.004.640.0016.860.00-3.07
RadfordBSth0.004.6450.0045.910.00-0.38
PresbyterianBSth0.004.630.0016.050.00-3.14
High PointBSth0.004.6333.3347.330.00-0.25
LibertyBSth0.004.6333.3360.490.000.97
USC UpstateASun0.002.050.0038.980.00-0.45
JacksonvilleASun0.001.910.0029.470.00-0.79
AuburnSEC0.001.8966.6749.270.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.001.8566.6754.630.000.17
Wright St.Horz0.001.850.0040.320.00-0.36
FloridaSEC16.671.82100.0079.5316.671.07
HamptonMEAC0.001.790.0048.010.00-0.07
MarylandB100.001.79100.0070.820.000.74
Miami FLACC16.671.79100.0073.5616.670.84
UCFAmer16.671.79100.0060.3616.670.37
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.330.0034.040.00-0.11
VMISC0.000.2633.3327.450.00-0.12
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.260.0056.560.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.2333.3333.620.00-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.000.22100.0053.240.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.2266.6749.990.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.20100.0054.680.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.2066.6748.280.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.20100.0048.350.00-0.01
North FloridaASun4.170.190.0036.69-4.17-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1975.0061.940.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.16100.0068.200.000.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1633.3334.490.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.15100.0061.320.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.130.0045.640.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.1333.3330.460.00-0.05
William & MaryCAA2.780.1333.3335.21-0.93-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.130.0028.770.00-0.06
PittsburghACC0.000.1333.3334.560.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1366.6773.200.000.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.130.0031.380.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.1333.3349.220.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.1333.3333.210.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.1366.6753.670.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.1350.0059.440.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0021.380.00-0.07
WoffordSC0.000.130.0039.740.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.13100.0060.400.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.12100.0054.960.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1266.6759.740.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1275.0058.930.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1050.0052.380.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0046.080.00-0.01
MercerSC2.780.1075.0076.251.390.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1025.0035.000.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0036.830.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1066.6748.040.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.100.0042.850.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.10100.0071.700.000.04
MichiganB100.000.09100.0061.710.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.09100.0060.010.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0966.6755.210.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0082.350.000.06
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0059.240.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.090.0031.810.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0059.870.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0056.360.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0933.3334.680.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0056.600.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6757.890.000.01
PurdueB100.000.09100.0085.360.000.07
KentuckySEC0.000.0975.0071.830.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0071.180.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.09100.0053.790.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0026.180.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0766.6768.790.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0766.6742.170.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.07100.0070.080.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6756.330.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0733.3352.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.07100.0059.250.000.01
VCUA100.000.0766.6766.590.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.070.0035.450.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0022.840.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0750.0043.710.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.070.0024.440.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0766.6753.390.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0025.140.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0050.360.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC2.780.060.0018.40-2.78-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.140.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0666.6763.230.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0062.760.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.06100.0078.910.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6728.760.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3359.680.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.06100.0069.350.000.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.06100.0082.290.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.06100.0078.750.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6740.070.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0044.830.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0625.0059.770.000.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.060.0032.200.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.06100.0057.270.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.06100.0055.280.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0077.820.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.06100.0070.960.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0055.040.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0650.0073.230.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0088.360.000.05
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0051.080.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0066.530.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.030.0038.100.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0035.330.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
NavyPat2.780.0350.0052.870.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.630.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0048.690.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0061.110.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.030.0061.460.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0375.0052.360.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3346.330.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0029.630.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.030.0038.210.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.03100.0046.880.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0333.3348.640.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.030.0047.400.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01