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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Coastal Carolina

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:135.8
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:241
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:18-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:142
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-369.10.28%
22-479.12.33%
21-592.07.59%
20-6106.915.86%
19-7122.722.60%
18-8140.021.29%
17-9158.515.76%
16-10179.38.69%
15-11201.43.91%
14-12222.31.26%
13-13248.10.37%
12-14262.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UCLA (69.3)P12A84-71L0%0.0
11-26Louisiana Monroe (208.5)SBN48-61W100%0.0
11-27Chattanooga (206.7)SCA78-67L0%0.0
12-2South Carolina St. (306.7)MEACH66-52W100%0.0
12-5Auburn (184.8)SECA54-58W100%0.0
12-14South Carolina St. (306.7)MEACA43-57W100%0.0
12-18Mississippi (98.8)SECA71-68L0%0.0
12-21Central Arkansas (339.1)SlndA0-085%12.3
12-31High Point (155.6)BSthA0-055%1.4
1-3Charleston Southern (205.9)BSthH0-083%11.0
1-8Longwood (317.4)BSthH0-094%18.7
1-10Liberty (322.3)BSthA0-073%7.1
1-12Campbell (224.3)BSthA0-059%2.7
1-17Gardner Webb (167.3)BSthH0-078%9.1
1-22UNC Asheville (224.1)BSthA0-054%1.1
1-24Presbyterian (340.7)BSthH0-099%26.4
1-28Winthrop (252.2)BSthH0-083%11.3
1-31Gardner Webb (167.3)BSthA0-051%0.4
2-3UNC Asheville (224.1)BSthH0-080%9.9
2-6High Point (155.6)BSthH0-081%10.2
2-11Charleston Southern (205.9)BSthA0-058%2.3
2-14Liberty (322.3)BSthH0-091%15.8
2-16Radford (196.6)BSthA0-055%1.5
2-19Campbell (224.3)BSthH0-083%11.4
2-23Longwood (317.4)BSthA0-080%10.0
2-26Presbyterian (340.7)BSthA0-093%17.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coastal CarolinaBSth28.5026.5470.9776.5511.9514.09
Charleston SouthernBSth0.364.9342.8651.65-0.050.16
CampbellBSth0.004.8925.0045.81-0.00-0.41
LongwoodBSth0.004.8520.0027.60-0.00-2.17
High PointBSth0.004.8462.5058.340.000.81
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.8437.5051.61-0.000.16
LibertyBSth0.004.8425.0036.11-0.00-1.34
PresbyterianBSth0.004.840.009.00-0.00-3.97
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.8314.2946.20-0.00-0.37
South Carolina St.MEAC14.293.8525.0032.11-7.14-1.38
WinthropBSth0.403.0928.5748.53-0.17-0.09
RadfordBSth0.003.0650.0056.210.000.38
MississippiSEC7.142.0366.6751.032.380.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.000.0017.61-0.00-1.29
AuburnSEC7.141.9950.0037.610.00-0.49
ChattanoogaSC7.141.9237.5049.85-1.79-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB7.141.9240.0047.02-1.43-0.11
UCLAP127.141.9270.0055.862.860.23
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.2822.2237.75-0.00-0.07
SamfordSC0.000.2433.3331.58-0.00-0.09
James MadisonCAA0.000.2470.0060.790.000.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2120.0041.46-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.2177.7876.240.000.11
ClemsonACC0.400.2166.6745.670.13-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.2118.1828.02-0.00-0.09
FurmanSC0.000.2125.0029.59-0.00-0.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.710.2150.0044.900.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.2140.0046.73-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.2080.0064.110.000.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1871.4363.890.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1855.5638.130.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.920.1730.0037.28-0.37-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.400.1662.5059.510.100.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.710.1466.6762.620.240.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1418.1835.99-0.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1490.0084.680.000.10
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1450.0053.700.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1430.0028.50-0.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1462.5066.700.000.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.710.1420.0034.08-0.43-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1441.6744.33-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1462.5064.260.000.04
TroySB0.360.1433.3339.46-0.12-0.03
FloridaSEC0.600.1360.0064.930.120.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.1366.6754.660.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1155.5638.600.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1155.5657.090.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1042.8638.26-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1033.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1018.1846.16-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1011.1144.04-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.400.1042.8652.71-0.060.01
HowardMEAC0.000.1030.0043.91-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0023.15-0.00-0.06
ArizonaP120.000.10100.0080.590.000.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.600.100.0037.73-0.60-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1016.6719.68-0.00-0.06
Texas TechB121.110.1088.8955.910.860.01
WashingtonP120.710.10100.0071.820.710.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.320.100.0018.94-0.32-0.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1044.4431.58-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1077.7865.390.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0977.7871.960.000.04
ColoradoP120.400.0966.6758.240.130.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0094.790.000.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0950.0039.340.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.400.0977.7855.460.220.01
OregonP120.360.0966.6758.060.120.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0760.0064.610.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0078.050.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0737.5038.60-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0750.0037.510.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0781.8264.110.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0750.0038.000.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0760.0057.600.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0760.0065.400.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0737.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0038.24-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0710.0030.45-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.070.007.39-0.00-0.06
DukeACC0.000.07100.0087.140.000.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.0762.5071.290.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0766.6754.830.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0710.0018.58-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0772.7367.750.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0744.4456.91-0.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0788.8981.310.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0727.2737.85-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0772.7363.730.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0790.0067.260.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0036.67-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0722.2240.44-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0050.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0755.5654.950.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0757.1456.750.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.600.0770.0058.600.240.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.990.0730.0039.44-0.40-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0720.0043.08-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0014.79-0.00-0.05
DavidsonA100.000.0787.5077.020.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0742.8655.64-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.710.070.0012.36-0.71-0.05
FordhamA100.000.0728.5728.26-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0740.0050.32-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0771.4348.860.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0750.0056.340.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0744.4470.08-0.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0750.0058.360.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.710.0750.0053.850.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0023.71-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.710.07100.0085.310.710.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0725.0028.68-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0728.5736.95-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0744.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0771.4363.410.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6766.340.000.02
IowaB100.000.0772.7362.590.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0725.0049.09-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0737.5042.45-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0038.46-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0074.000.000.03
The CitadelSC0.400.0716.6730.84-0.26-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.0710.0020.91-0.00-0.04
VMISC0.000.0733.3339.22-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0745.4544.07-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.360.07100.0066.180.360.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0744.4445.64-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.360.0672.7351.560.160.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.400.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.690.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.570.000.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.120.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0677.7879.480.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0490.9167.660.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.240.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0366.6759.460.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5051.81-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.400.0380.0072.550.240.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.70-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.340.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.400.0336.3633.67-0.11-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2934.12-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.64-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.75-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.400.0325.0033.17-0.20-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.400.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.400.0390.9188.390.320.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.400.0333.3334.28-0.13-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.62-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.400.0360.0056.800.080.00
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.960.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.820.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.99-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.320.0336.3638.88-0.09-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.360.0377.7869.190.200.01
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.320.0390.0090.940.260.03
Long Beach St.BW0.320.0340.0050.07-0.060.00
Montana St.BSky0.320.0322.2228.69-0.18-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.320.0370.0071.630.130.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.360.0340.0050.78-0.070.00
OklahomaB120.320.0377.7867.290.180.01
San DiegoWCC0.320.0354.5557.300.030.00
SouthernSWAC0.360.030.0033.84-0.36-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.320.0342.8643.10-0.05-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.360.0355.5649.500.04-0.00