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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Coastal Carolina

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:145.2
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:312
Current SOS:29
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:17-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-248.80.08%
22-353.50.39%
21-469.51.75%
20-584.25.09%
19-699.310.18%
18-7115.916.36%
17-8134.117.93%
16-9154.518.87%
15-10174.013.26%
14-11195.48.39%
13-12217.54.62%
12-13239.22.05%
11-14263.80.78%
10-15285.30.19%
9-16305.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UCLA (53.6)P12A84-71L0%0.0
11-26Louisiana Monroe (116.3)SBN0-049%-0.3
12-2South Carolina St. (288.1)MEACH0-089%14.4
12-5Auburn (208.9)SECA0-046%-1.1
12-14South Carolina St. (288.1)MEACA0-073%7.2
12-18Mississippi (84.5)SECA0-021%-9.7
12-21Central Arkansas (334.0)SlndA0-082%10.9
12-31High Point (164.3)BSthA0-051%0.4
1-3Charleston Southern (170.0)BSthH0-071%6.6
1-8Longwood (335.9)BSthH0-096%20.6
1-10Liberty (318.4)BSthA0-076%8.3
1-12Campbell (294.0)BSthA0-073%7.4
1-17Gardner Webb (127.4)BSthH0-065%4.5
1-22UNC Asheville (201.9)BSthA0-054%1.1
1-24Presbyterian (321.4)BSthH0-094%18.7
1-28Winthrop (214.9)BSthH0-075%8.0
1-31Gardner Webb (127.4)BSthA0-041%-2.7
2-3UNC Asheville (201.9)BSthH0-076%8.3
2-6High Point (164.3)BSthH0-074%7.6
2-11Charleston Southern (170.0)BSthA0-048%-0.6
2-14Liberty (318.4)BSthH0-090%15.5
2-16Radford (218.1)BSthA0-055%1.6
2-19Campbell (294.0)BSthH0-089%14.6
2-23Longwood (335.9)BSthA0-087%13.4
2-26Presbyterian (321.4)BSthA0-083%11.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coastal CarolinaBSth31.2526.580.0070.97-31.2511.15
Charleston SouthernBSth0.005.1450.0056.910.000.71
CampbellBSth0.005.090.0032.39-0.00-1.79
LongwoodBSth0.005.0525.0021.13-0.00-2.92
High PointBSth0.005.0475.0057.300.000.74
Gardner WebbBSth0.005.0440.0060.07-0.001.01
PresbyterianBSth0.005.040.0023.60-0.00-2.66
LibertyBSth0.005.0433.3336.59-0.00-1.35
UNC AshevilleBSth0.005.0333.3350.99-0.000.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.004.000.0035.84-0.00-1.13
WinthropBSth0.003.2233.3355.65-0.000.36
RadfordBSth0.003.1933.3350.29-0.000.02
MississippiSEC0.002.1175.0054.860.000.21
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.080.0021.51-0.00-1.18
AuburnSEC0.002.0750.0031.860.00-0.75
Louisiana MonroeSB0.002.0050.0063.270.000.53
UCLAP1250.002.00100.0063.4450.000.54
James MadisonCAA0.000.2575.0047.460.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.2260.0051.710.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.2240.0034.21-0.00-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.220.0028.12-0.00-0.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2240.0053.80-0.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.2133.3344.26-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.2160.0056.290.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1966.6733.810.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.000.1840.0039.62-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1533.3354.64-0.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.1533.3323.97-0.00-0.08
WoffordSC0.000.1580.0076.960.000.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1550.0050.520.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1566.6747.180.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1566.6732.480.00-0.05
Ohio St.B100.000.15100.0073.810.000.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1440.0050.01-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.140.0044.74-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1450.0032.210.00-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1425.0039.30-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1416.6730.01-0.00-0.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1466.6768.660.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1475.0058.190.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1475.0056.780.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1266.6757.950.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.120.0033.20-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.1233.3342.50-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1166.6750.930.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.110.0040.87-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.110.0039.88-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.1166.6766.030.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.11100.0074.960.000.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1120.0053.69-0.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0038.25-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0022.66-0.00-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.110.0053.97-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.110.0029.61-0.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.110.0030.13-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1166.6745.370.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.11100.0056.070.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.1066.6756.740.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd6.250.100.0029.60-6.25-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0087.980.000.08
MissouriSEC0.000.1050.0043.080.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.1075.0068.720.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1075.0069.180.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0074.590.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.10100.0047.400.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0850.0026.270.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0875.0065.610.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.08100.0064.710.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.080.0020.52-0.00-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.000.080.0031.81-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0825.0042.98-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0833.3363.19-0.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.08100.0060.870.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.080.0044.98-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0040.14-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.080.0039.32-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.080.0055.84-0.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0866.6748.390.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0875.0056.390.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0860.0045.520.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0866.6757.340.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0760.0057.920.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0029.26-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0720.0035.87-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.07100.0085.500.000.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0760.0050.930.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0023.63-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0780.0072.030.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0780.0074.980.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0775.0062.270.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0065.090.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0766.6746.440.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0760.0056.230.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0725.0038.68-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0029.05-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0750.0053.850.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0060.950.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0021.49-0.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.070.0024.54-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0720.0044.69-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0063.820.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.070.0041.06-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0733.3347.25-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0069.16-0.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0733.3330.55-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.07100.0062.840.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0032.95-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0074.230.000.03
TCUB120.000.07100.0057.580.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0775.0068.180.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0045.64-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0034.80-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0766.6745.890.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0064.210.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0775.0069.760.000.03
USCP120.000.0740.0028.54-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0766.6772.280.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0733.3346.31-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0050.790.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6774.460.000.03
IowaB100.000.0760.0064.030.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.070.0038.08-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0740.0038.36-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0060.130.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0733.3343.01-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0750.0041.580.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0050.840.000.00
MarylandB100.000.04100.0066.670.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0433.3337.47-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.04100.0061.740.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0433.3360.10-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0375.0056.870.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3334.36-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.000.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.93-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.650.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW6.250.0325.0052.91-3.120.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.420.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0325.0035.54-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky6.250.030.0021.27-6.25-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.810.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.410.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0366.6758.810.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0375.0050.400.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0065.66-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.110.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.56-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0375.0058.430.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0029.28-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3328.67-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0080.240.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.26-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.970.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.51-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.21-0.00-0.00