Coastal Carolina

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	132.7
Current RPI:	140
Expected SOS:	272
Current SOS:	293
Current Record:	13-6
Expected Record:	17-8
Current Conf Record:	10-3
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	21.66%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	3-3
Expected OOC Record:	4-3
Expected OOC RPI:	179
Expected OOC SOS:	258

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-6	103.8	11.24%
18-7	118.6	28.80%
17-8	134.2	33.58%
16-9	151.9	19.24%
15-10	173.1	6.13%
14-11	191.2	0.94%
13-12	212.8	0.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Louisiana St. (86.2)	SEC	H	71-63	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Clemson (164.6)	ACC	A	59-60	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Florida International (214.2)	SB	A	64-62	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Virginia Military Inst (265.0)	BSth	H	87-78	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Liberty (310.4)	BSth	H	78-68	W	100%	0.0
12-6	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	A	58-80	W	100%	0.0
12-19	East Carolina (158.8)	CUSA	A	76-51	L	0%	0.0
12-22	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	H	70-77	L	0%	0.0
12-31	High Point (283.7)	BSth	A	52-55	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Campbell (163.3)	BSth	A	70-65	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Charleston Southern (152.9)	BSth	A	77-80	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	H	65-63	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Presbyterian (254.3)	BSth	H	81-63	W	100%	0.0
1-17	NC Asheville (116.0)	BSth	A	88-81	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Radford (335.3)	BSth	H	82-62	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Presbyterian (254.3)	BSth	A	49-52	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	A	56-70	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Charleston Southern (152.9)	BSth	H	71-58	W	100%	0.0
2-7	Campbell (163.3)	BSth	H	75-81	L	0%	0.0
2-9	High Point (283.7)	BSth	H	0-0		83%	10.4
2-11	Winthrop (267.3)	BSth	A	0-0		63%	3.7
2-14	NC Asheville (116.0)	BSth	H	0-0		58%	2.2
2-18	Tennessee Tech (136.2)	OVC	H	0-0		67%	4.8
2-23	Liberty (310.4)	BSth	A	0-0		76%	7.7
2-25	Virginia Military Inst (265.0)	BSth	A	0-0		68%	5.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Coastal Carolina	BSth	26.61	26.48	70.79	70.40	11.06	10.80
Charleston Southern	BSth	6.24	5.11	61.11	65.38	1.39	1.57
Campbell	BSth	6.43	5.10	54.17	55.29	0.54	0.54
Gardner Webb	BSth	6.09	5.09	38.10	41.61	-1.45	-0.85
High Point	BSth	3.70	5.08	33.33	34.75	-1.23	-1.55
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	3.51	5.04	47.37	46.54	-0.18	-0.35
NC Asheville	BSth	3.68	5.04	66.67	67.45	1.23	1.76
Liberty	BSth	3.46	5.02	28.57	28.51	-1.48	-2.16
Presbyterian	BSth	6.09	5.02	45.00	47.01	-0.61	-0.30
Winthrop	BSth	1.18	3.19	34.78	34.68	-0.36	-0.98
Radford	BSth	3.47	3.17	9.09	13.59	-2.84	-2.31
The Citadel	SC	3.00	2.33	10.00	11.91	-2.40	-1.77
College of Charleston	SC	2.94	2.26	56.52	58.54	0.38	0.39
Clemson	ACC	2.86	2.18	50.00	47.08	0.00	-0.13
East Carolina	CUSA	2.85	2.14	41.18	39.22	-0.50	-0.46
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	2.07	60.87	60.84	0.01	0.45
Florida International	SB	2.63	2.00	30.00	34.69	-1.05	-0.61
Louisiana St.	SEC	2.63	2.00	61.90	59.24	0.63	0.37
Wofford	SC	0.29	0.29	56.52	57.20	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.18	0.25	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.23	0.25	33.33	37.16	-0.08	-0.06
Furman	SC	0.41	0.25	45.45	47.20	-0.04	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.12	0.22	12.50	13.42	-0.09	-0.16
Western Carolina	SC	0.18	0.22	34.78	37.27	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	SC	0.24	0.21	77.27	77.37	0.13	0.12
Wake Forest	ACC	0.23	0.21	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.19	0.19	71.43	66.55	0.08	0.06
NC Greensboro	SC	0.25	0.18	34.78	33.38	-0.08	-0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.18	0.18	45.45	44.56	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.17	70.83	64.53	0.07	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.22	0.17	56.52	55.22	0.03	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.15	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.26	0.15	30.43	29.57	-0.10	-0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.15	34.78	37.18	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.19	0.14	72.73	71.57	0.09	0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.14	34.78	38.43	-0.00	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.23	0.14	52.38	49.77	0.01	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.14	42.86	43.11	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.17	0.14	27.27	35.05	-0.08	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.16	0.14	39.13	36.12	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.18	0.14	40.91	39.60	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.23	0.14	14.29	16.80	-0.16	-0.09
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.14	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.07
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.20	0.13	25.00	28.48	-0.10	-0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.14	0.12	60.00	58.30	0.03	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.11	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.18	0.11	40.91	41.68	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.11	66.67	69.71	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.11	86.96	83.30	0.04	0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.11	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.19	0.11	34.78	34.46	-0.06	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.18	0.11	69.57	65.37	0.07	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.17	0.10	76.00	72.48	0.09	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.18	0.10	60.87	53.44	0.04	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.18	0.10	82.61	79.93	0.12	0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.10	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.10	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.10	39.13	42.16	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.16	0.10	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.08	69.57	71.58	0.00	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.15	0.08	85.71	82.22	0.10	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.08	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.07	0.08	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.08	73.91	68.41	0.06	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.07	0.08	28.57	25.79	-0.03	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.07	0.08	13.04	14.47	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.08	87.50	85.41	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.08	62.50	59.52	0.02	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.13	0.08	82.61	80.50	0.09	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.07	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.07	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.06	0.07	70.83	72.24	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.07	36.36	39.73	-0.03	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.07	83.33	84.76	0.08	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.07	81.82	77.18	0.00	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.07	62.50	60.78	0.01	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.07	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.06	0.07	18.18	15.00	-0.04	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.07	47.62	44.58	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.07	73.91	68.65	0.06	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.13	0.07	43.48	43.27	-0.02	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.07	73.91	74.94	0.03	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.07	23.81	33.67	-0.00	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.00	0.07	100.00	94.58	0.00	0.06
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.07	9.52	13.17	-0.10	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.07	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.00	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.00	0.07	56.52	53.06	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.07	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.07	28.57	35.72	-0.05	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.12	0.07	33.33	35.20	-0.04	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.07	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.07	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.07	80.00	76.67	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.07	66.67	63.50	0.02	0.02
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.07	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.07	38.89	41.49	-0.00	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.07	75.00	75.73	0.06	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.07	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.12	0.07	96.00	93.53	0.11	0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.07	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.07	69.57	65.18	0.05	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.07	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.07	9.09	12.82	-0.08	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.07	84.00	82.62	0.07	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.07	63.64	56.68	0.02	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.07	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.07	31.82	34.86	-0.04	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.07	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.04	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.04	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.07	0.04	38.10	37.80	-0.02	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.04	61.90	58.61	0.00	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.07	0.04	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.00	0.04	43.48	44.26	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.04	20.83	25.85	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.04	37.50	38.36	-0.00	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.04	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.04	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.04	40.00	40.17	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.04	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.04	8.70	8.99	-0.05	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.04	80.77	80.77	0.04	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.00	0.04	32.00	35.39	-0.00	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.04	36.36	40.96	-0.00	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.00	0.04	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.04	79.17	78.05	0.00	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.00	0.04	59.09	56.38	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.04	33.33	34.54	-0.00	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.04	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.00	0.04	20.83	23.61	-0.00	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.00	0.04	8.33	10.90	-0.00	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.04	61.90	67.29	0.00	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.00	0.04	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.04	4.35	9.74	-0.00	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.04	66.67	65.98	0.00	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.04	40.91	42.97	-0.00	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.00	0.03	0.00	4.04	-0.00	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.06	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.44	-0.02	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.03	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	42.86	41.08	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.03	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	14.29	14.31	-0.04	-0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.03	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	63.64	57.79	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.00	0.01