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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Coastal Carolina

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:218.5
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:198
Current Record:2-6
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-970.00.01%
19-1081.30.06%
18-1199.00.15%
17-12113.60.60%
16-13130.91.83%
15-14148.84.35%
14-15167.47.99%
13-16186.913.01%
12-17205.617.25%
11-18225.418.20%
10-19242.915.98%
9-20260.810.89%
8-21276.86.20%
7-22288.92.45%
6-23303.40.83%
5-24311.80.17%
4-25328.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alabama (119.3)SECA70-53L0%0.0
11-14College of Charleston (117.3)CAAH64-71L0%0.0
11-16Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH89-59W100%0.0
11-19BYU (74.5)WCCA81-65L0%0.0
11-21Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyN68-83W100%0.0
11-23Wake Forest (52.1)ACCA86-74L0%0.0
11-29Chattanooga (78.8)SCH52-68L0%0.0
12-3UNC Asheville (83.1)BSthH77-79L0%0.0
12-10North Carolina Central (161.9)MEACH0-052%0.6
12-15Auburn (86.4)SECA0-015%-12.7
12-19Wofford (244.6)SCH0-065%4.6
12-31UT Arlington (65.7)SBA0-018%-11.1
1-2Texas St. (256.5)SBA0-047%-0.9
1-7Arkansas St. (78.4)SBH0-041%-2.7
1-9Little Rock (152.6)SBH0-049%-0.2
1-14Appalachian St. (265.6)SBH0-072%7.0
1-21Georgia St. (101.8)SBA0-023%-8.9
1-23Georgia Southern (191.2)SBA0-039%-3.3
1-28Texas St. (256.5)SBH0-067%5.3
1-30UT Arlington (65.7)SBH0-034%-4.8
2-4Little Rock (152.6)SBA0-029%-6.5
2-6Arkansas St. (78.4)SBA0-023%-9.0
2-11Georgia Southern (191.2)SBH0-060%3.0
2-13Georgia St. (101.8)SBH0-041%-2.7
2-18Troy (248.5)SBA0-052%0.6
2-20South Alabama (149.3)SBA0-033%-5.2
2-25Louisiana Lafayette (106.7)SBH0-043%-2.2
2-27Louisiana Monroe (263.6)SBH0-075%8.0
3-4Appalachian St. (265.6)SBA0-052%0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coastal CarolinaSB28.1826.2921.0536.61-16.32-7.04
Appalachian St.SB0.004.2916.6729.47-0.00-1.76
Arkansas St.SB0.394.2375.0065.980.201.35
Georgia St.SB0.004.2050.0060.840.000.91
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.1742.8643.03-0.00-0.58
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.1762.5067.120.001.43
Little RockSB0.004.1766.6761.450.000.96
Texas St.SB0.004.1750.0044.280.00-0.48
Louisiana MonroeSB0.392.6916.6729.99-0.26-1.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.6271.4363.290.000.70
South AlabamaSB0.002.6271.4356.860.000.36
TroySB0.002.6242.8635.65-0.00-0.75
ChattanoogaSC6.251.8771.4373.652.680.89
AuburnSEC0.001.8485.7156.340.000.23
AlabamaSEC6.251.8450.0050.080.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC6.641.810.0017.77-6.64-1.17
WoffordSC0.001.790.0034.68-0.00-0.55
BYUWCC6.601.7557.1465.980.940.56
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.7562.5075.160.000.88
College of CharlestonCAA6.601.7562.5060.371.650.36
Wake ForestACC6.601.7575.0053.643.300.13
Southern UtahBSky6.251.720.0026.21-6.25-0.82
UNC AshevilleBSth6.251.7257.1470.850.890.72
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2828.5723.02-0.00-0.15
LSUSEC0.000.2371.4347.690.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.2142.8647.68-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.390.2112.5030.51-0.29-0.08
MinnesotaB100.000.2188.8966.920.000.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1871.4355.570.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1875.0050.980.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1857.1471.170.000.08
GeorgiaSEC0.390.1757.1451.810.060.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1614.2942.77-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.390.1542.8657.52-0.060.02
SamfordSC0.000.1562.5056.520.000.02
The CitadelSC0.350.1550.0030.320.00-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.390.1550.0044.700.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1512.5030.17-0.00-0.06
RadfordBSth0.350.1528.5734.49-0.15-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1575.0047.520.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1562.5044.840.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1425.0045.82-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1442.8633.51-0.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1212.5037.11-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0017.92-0.00-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3379.920.000.07
VMISC0.000.120.0016.56-0.00-0.08
DukeACC0.000.1290.0080.060.000.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0022.47-0.00-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.120.0019.08-0.00-0.07
TulsaAmer0.000.1250.0037.700.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1250.0042.770.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.1250.0053.130.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1211.1120.27-0.00-0.07
WinthropBSth0.000.1250.0071.340.000.05
TexasB120.450.1250.0038.730.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.12100.0060.950.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1287.5069.040.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1277.7872.930.000.05
ValparaisoHorz1.710.1285.7175.251.220.06
ClemsonACC0.350.1271.4354.560.150.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0089.590.000.09
USC UpstateASun0.740.1244.4441.55-0.08-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0047.990.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6743.53-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.54-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0020.63-0.00-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.350.0962.5050.630.090.00
DavidsonA100.350.0971.4362.990.150.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0912.5031.01-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0925.0041.19-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0026.22-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0013.32-0.00-0.07
HawaiiBW0.000.0942.8650.82-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0987.5075.730.000.05
BradleyMVC0.000.0937.5025.74-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0050.980.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0977.7877.640.000.05
AkronMAC0.000.0971.4368.930.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0957.1449.640.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2935.05-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0911.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0950.0066.380.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0062.450.000.02
Ball St.MAC1.310.0950.0050.170.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.450.0920.0038.50-0.27-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0955.5646.770.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.390.0962.5054.660.100.01
GeorgetownBE0.350.0955.5647.600.04-0.00
HofstraCAA0.350.0955.5643.870.04-0.01
Saint LouisA101.360.0925.0023.99-0.68-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0985.7153.770.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0957.1429.760.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.44-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.390.0662.5053.550.100.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0628.5738.92-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.170.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0662.5066.500.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0660.0062.420.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.82-0.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0620.0022.88-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.90-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5052.060.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.370.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0677.7866.740.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.390.0687.5081.910.290.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.64-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.680.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3351.98-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0637.5044.87-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.92-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.64-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.75-0.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.0640.0043.88-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0628.5724.39-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.30-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6738.83-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0070.350.000.02
UNLVMWC0.520.0662.5042.780.13-0.01
VCUA100.390.0675.0072.930.200.03
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0026.46-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0612.5029.77-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.840.000.01
USCP120.390.06100.0076.400.390.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.78-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.07-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0650.0041.460.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0637.5061.81-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0055.480.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.80-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.290.000.03
VillanovaBE0.690.06100.0084.740.690.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.06-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.220.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.180.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0092.200.000.05
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8645.98-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0657.1450.730.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.15-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.79-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0362.5052.400.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.860.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.390.0325.0030.02-0.20-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.200.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.31-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2246.51-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.03-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.56-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.43-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.65-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.76-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.0342.8658.24-0.050.00
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3351.57-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
KansasB120.390.0388.8977.470.300.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.72-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.05-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.520.0385.7177.000.370.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0040.690.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.390.0333.3350.05-0.130.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
UtahP120.350.0380.0058.220.210.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6753.730.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0337.5038.08-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.350.0350.0056.890.000.00
BucknellPat0.350.0370.0070.530.140.01
DaytonA100.450.0371.4373.270.190.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8967.470.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.01
NavyPat0.350.0333.3338.56-0.12-0.01
NorthwesternB100.350.0375.0066.090.170.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0048.980.00-0.00
RichmondA100.350.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0362.5062.080.000.01
UCFAmer0.350.0385.7175.800.250.01
UTEPCUSA0.350.0320.0035.46-0.21-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0064.910.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.49-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0371.4348.030.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.390.0320.0060.00-0.230.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.390.0342.8650.57-0.060.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.390.0357.1457.780.060.00