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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Coastal Carolina

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:196.0
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:291
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12196.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Akron (93.0)MACA72-63L0%0.0
11-16Mississippi (94.0)SECH70-72L0%0.0
11-19Minnesota (50.0)B10A82-72L0%0.0
11-23St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH70-59W100%0.0
11-24Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH69-73L0%0.0
11-29Clemson (79.0)ACCA69-40L0%0.0
12-4Western Carolina (221.0)SCH76-68W100%0.0
12-17South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA83-78L0%0.0
12-21Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA62-65W100%0.0
12-30South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH58-68L0%0.0
1-3Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH86-67W100%0.0
1-8Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthA70-58L0%0.0
1-11Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthA69-81W100%0.0
1-15UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH81-78W100%0.0
1-18Winthrop (168.0)BSthH72-73L0%0.0
1-22Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA72-84W100%0.0
1-25Radford (240.0)BSthA61-69W100%0.0
1-29Liberty (311.0)BSthH66-64W100%0.0
2-1Campbell (316.0)BSthA58-61W100%0.0
2-5High Point (172.0)BSthH74-77L0%0.0
2-8Longwood (337.0)BSthH67-58W100%0.0
2-12VMI (211.0)BSthA78-83W100%0.0
2-15Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH75-60W100%0.0
2-19Winthrop (168.0)BSthA75-65L0%0.0
2-22UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthA100-85L0%0.0
2-26Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH70-51W100%0.0
3-1Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH63-61W100%0.0
3-7Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH73-68W100%0.0
3-8VMI (211.0)BSthH66-62W100%0.0
3-9Winthrop (168.0)BSthH76-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coastal CarolinaBSth26.5526.5558.2158.214.364.36
WinthropBSth5.855.8555.5655.560.650.65
Charleston SouthernBSth5.775.7733.3333.33-1.92-1.92
UNC AshevilleBSth4.254.2548.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Gardner WebbBSth4.214.2153.5753.570.300.30
PresbyterianBSth4.154.1514.2914.29-2.96-2.96
VMIBSth4.054.0560.0060.000.810.81
Central ConnecticutNEC3.393.3937.0437.04-0.88-0.88
South Carolina St.MEAC3.363.3619.2319.23-2.07-2.07
RadfordBSth2.482.4862.0762.070.600.60
LibertyBSth2.482.4828.5728.57-1.06-1.06
CampbellBSth2.462.4633.3333.33-0.82-0.82
High PointBSth2.452.4548.1548.15-0.09-0.09
LongwoodBSth2.422.4214.8114.81-1.70-1.70
Western CarolinaSC1.851.8553.3353.330.120.12
ClemsonACC1.791.7961.2961.290.400.40
St. Francis NYNEC1.781.7856.6756.670.240.24
AkronMAC1.671.6762.5062.500.420.42
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
MinnesotaB101.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
MississippiSEC1.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
WoffordSC0.280.2858.6258.620.050.05
The CitadelSC0.250.2513.7913.79-0.18-0.18
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.230.2383.8783.870.160.16
Virginia TechACC0.230.2329.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Appalachian St.SC0.220.2219.2319.23-0.14-0.14
South CarolinaSEC0.220.2241.1841.18-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
Georgia SouthernSC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
WagnerNEC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.2016.1316.13-0.13-0.13
FurmanSC0.190.1925.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
BryantNEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
DukeACC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
OhioMAC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
AlabamaSEC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Penn St.B100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
BaylorB120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.110.1184.3884.380.070.07
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
NorthwesternB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
BrownIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02