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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Coastal Carolina

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:183.0
Current RPI:183
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:116
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17183.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alabama (78.0)SECA70-53L0%0.0
11-14College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH64-71L0%0.0
11-16Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH89-59W100%0.0
11-19BYU (65.0)WCCA81-65L0%0.0
11-21Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyN68-83W100%0.0
11-23Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA86-74L0%0.0
11-29Chattanooga (139.0)SCH52-68L0%0.0
12-3UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH77-79L0%0.0
12-10North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH70-67W100%0.0
12-15Auburn (113.0)SECA117-72L0%0.0
12-19Wofford (190.0)SCH74-75L0%0.0
12-31UT Arlington (45.0)SBA90-69L0%0.0
1-2Texas St. (179.0)SBA53-60W100%0.0
1-7Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH80-65W100%0.0
1-9Little Rock (243.0)SBH66-63W100%0.0
1-14Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH85-73W100%0.0
1-21Georgia St. (104.0)SBA76-56L0%0.0
1-23Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA91-80L0%0.0
1-28Texas St. (179.0)SBH50-52L0%0.0
1-30UT Arlington (45.0)SBH72-70W100%0.0
2-4Little Rock (243.0)SBA75-82W100%0.0
2-6Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA67-57L0%0.0
2-11Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH82-70W100%0.0
2-13Georgia St. (104.0)SBH65-64W100%0.0
2-18Troy (147.0)SBA87-78L0%0.0
2-20South Alabama (231.0)SBA77-81W100%0.0
2-25Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH77-79L0%0.0
2-27Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH77-72W100%0.0
3-4Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA77-73L0%0.0
3-8South Alabama (231.0)SBN80-67W100%0.0
3-10UT Arlington (45.0)SBN74-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coastal CarolinaSB26.3526.3542.9642.96-3.71-3.71
UT ArlingtonSB5.585.5875.0075.002.792.79
Texas St.SB4.104.1058.6258.620.710.71
South AlabamaSB4.074.0742.8642.86-0.58-0.58
Appalachian St.SB4.074.0723.0823.08-2.19-2.19
Arkansas St.SB4.024.0262.0762.070.970.97
Georgia St.SB4.024.0260.7160.710.860.86
Little RockSB3.973.9746.4346.43-0.28-0.28
Georgia SouthernSB3.973.9753.5753.570.280.28
TroySB2.732.7357.5857.580.410.41
Louisiana MonroeSB2.652.6523.3323.33-1.41-1.41
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.592.5960.0060.000.520.52
ChattanoogaSC1.771.7757.1457.140.250.25
AuburnSEC1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
AlabamaSEC1.721.7256.2556.250.210.21
WoffordSC1.701.7041.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Coppin St.MEAC1.691.6924.1424.14-0.87-0.87
BYUWCC1.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.641.6475.8675.860.850.85
College of CharlestonCAA1.641.6471.8871.880.720.72
Wake ForestACC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
Southern UtahBSky1.611.6113.3313.33-1.18-1.18
UNC AshevilleBSth1.611.6168.9768.970.610.61
Western CarolinaSC0.250.2523.3323.33-0.13-0.13
MinnesotaB100.210.2172.7372.730.100.10
LSUSEC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
MercerSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1976.6776.670.100.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
MissouriSEC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
HamptonMEAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
TexasB120.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
VMISC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
DukeACC0.110.1177.1477.140.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00