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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


Coastal Carolina

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:132.7
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:272
Current SOS:293
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:17-8
Current Conf Record:10-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:21.66%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:258



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-6103.811.24%
18-7118.628.80%
17-8134.233.58%
16-9151.919.24%
15-10173.16.13%
14-11191.20.94%
13-12212.80.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Louisiana St. (86.2)SECH71-63W100%0.0
11-22Clemson (164.6)ACCA59-60W100%0.0
11-26Florida International (214.2)SBA64-62L0%0.0
12-1Virginia Military Inst (265.0)BSthH87-78W100%0.0
12-3Liberty (310.4)BSthH78-68W100%0.0
12-6The Citadel (332.3)SCA58-80W100%0.0
12-19East Carolina (158.8)CUSAA76-51L0%0.0
12-22College of Charleston (129.6)SCH70-77L0%0.0
12-31High Point (283.7)BSthA52-55W100%0.0
1-2Campbell (163.3)BSthA70-65L0%0.0
1-7Charleston Southern (152.9)BSthA77-80W100%0.0
1-12Gardner Webb (269.3)BSthH65-63W100%0.0
1-14Presbyterian (254.3)BSthH81-63W100%0.0
1-17NC Asheville (116.0)BSthA88-81L0%0.0
1-21Radford (335.3)BSthH82-62W100%0.0
1-26Presbyterian (254.3)BSthA49-52W100%0.0
1-28Gardner Webb (269.3)BSthA56-70W100%0.0
2-4Charleston Southern (152.9)BSthH71-58W100%0.0
2-7Campbell (163.3)BSthH75-81L0%0.0
2-9High Point (283.7)BSthH0-083%10.4
2-11Winthrop (267.3)BSthA0-063%3.7
2-14NC Asheville (116.0)BSthH0-058%2.2
2-18Tennessee Tech (136.2)OVCH0-067%4.8
2-23Liberty (310.4)BSthA0-076%7.7
2-25Virginia Military Inst (265.0)BSthA0-068%5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coastal CarolinaBSth26.6126.4870.7970.4011.0610.80
Charleston SouthernBSth6.245.1161.1165.381.391.57
CampbellBSth6.435.1054.1755.290.540.54
Gardner WebbBSth6.095.0938.1041.61-1.45-0.85
High PointBSth3.705.0833.3334.75-1.23-1.55
Virginia Military InstBSth3.515.0447.3746.54-0.18-0.35
NC AshevilleBSth3.685.0466.6767.451.231.76
LibertyBSth3.465.0228.5728.51-1.48-2.16
PresbyterianBSth6.095.0245.0047.01-0.61-0.30
WinthropBSth1.183.1934.7834.68-0.36-0.98
RadfordBSth3.473.179.0913.59-2.84-2.31
The CitadelSC3.002.3310.0011.91-2.40-1.77
College of CharlestonSC2.942.2656.5258.540.380.39
ClemsonACC2.862.1850.0047.080.00-0.13
East CarolinaCUSA2.852.1441.1839.22-0.50-0.46
Tennessee TechOVC0.062.0760.8760.840.010.45
Florida InternationalSB2.632.0030.0034.69-1.05-0.61
Louisiana St.SEC2.632.0061.9059.240.630.37
WoffordSC0.290.2956.5257.200.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.2550.0051.750.000.01
Appalachian St.SC0.230.2533.3337.16-0.08-0.06
FurmanSC0.410.2545.4547.20-0.04-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.120.2212.5013.42-0.09-0.16
Western CarolinaSC0.180.2234.7837.27-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.240.2177.2777.370.130.12
Wake ForestACC0.230.2147.8343.63-0.01-0.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.190.1971.4366.550.080.06
NC GreensboroSC0.250.1834.7833.38-0.08-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.180.1845.4544.56-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1770.8364.530.070.05
Virginia TechACC0.220.1756.5255.220.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.1559.0959.780.010.03
StetsonASun0.260.1530.4329.57-0.10-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.120.1534.7837.18-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.190.1472.7371.570.090.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1434.7838.43-0.00-0.03
ElonSC0.230.1452.3849.770.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.120.1442.8643.11-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1427.2735.05-0.08-0.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1439.1336.12-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.180.1440.9139.60-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.1414.2916.80-0.16-0.09
VirginiaACC0.120.1481.8276.800.070.07
Houston BaptistGWC0.200.1325.0028.48-0.10-0.06
Old DominionCAA0.140.1260.0058.300.030.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.1144.4448.16-0.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.180.1140.9141.68-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.120.1166.6769.710.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.060.1186.9683.300.040.07
South AlabamaSB0.120.1152.3852.880.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.190.1134.7834.46-0.06-0.03
CincinnatiBE0.180.1169.5765.370.070.03
George MasonCAA0.170.1076.0072.480.090.05
MarylandACC0.180.1060.8753.440.040.01
DukeACC0.180.1082.6179.930.120.06
Morehead St.OVC0.050.1045.4547.09-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.110.1043.4843.89-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.120.1039.1342.16-0.03-0.02
IowaB100.160.1054.1749.410.01-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.000.0869.5771.580.000.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.150.0885.7182.220.100.05
UABCUSA0.070.0840.9139.81-0.01-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0847.3742.13-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.130.0873.9168.410.060.03
Longwoodind0.070.0828.5725.79-0.03-0.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.070.0813.0414.47-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.070.0887.5085.410.050.05
PittsburghBE0.070.0862.5059.520.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.0882.6180.500.090.05
CharlotteA100.130.0750.0049.460.00-0.00
ConnecticutBE0.060.0765.2262.350.020.02
DenverSB0.060.0770.8372.240.030.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.130.0736.3639.73-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.130.0783.3384.760.080.05
OhioMAC0.000.0781.8277.180.000.04
PurdueB100.060.0762.5060.780.010.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0756.5256.800.010.01
TroySB0.060.0728.5730.17-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.060.0718.1815.00-0.04-0.05
HoustonCUSA0.130.0747.6244.58-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.130.0773.9168.650.060.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.130.0743.4843.27-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0773.9174.940.030.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0723.8133.67-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.07100.0094.580.000.06
NavyPat0.120.079.5213.17-0.10-0.05
RichmondA100.060.0750.0048.480.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0726.3229.64-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0756.5253.060.000.00
Texas A&MB120.060.0750.0045.200.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.0728.5735.72-0.05-0.02
North TexasSB0.060.0750.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.120.0733.3335.20-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0750.0052.040.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0745.4541.17-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0780.0076.670.040.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0766.6763.500.020.02
ButlerHorz0.110.0750.0050.810.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0738.8941.49-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.110.0775.0075.730.060.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0754.5558.390.010.01
KentuckySEC0.120.0796.0093.530.110.06
AlabamaSEC0.060.0769.5770.160.020.03
ArkansasSEC0.120.0769.5765.180.050.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0754.1747.950.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.100.079.0912.82-0.08-0.05
CreightonMVC0.100.0784.0082.620.070.04
MississippiSEC0.060.0763.6456.680.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0778.2672.280.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0731.8234.86-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0755.0054.450.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0442.1145.89-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0447.6246.51-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.070.0438.1037.80-0.02-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.000.0461.9058.610.000.01
TulsaCUSA0.070.0460.8759.050.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0443.4844.26-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0420.8325.85-0.04-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0437.5038.36-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0447.6248.81-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.060.0460.8760.960.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0440.0040.17-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0454.1754.760.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.048.708.99-0.05-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0480.7780.770.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0432.0035.39-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0436.3640.96-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0452.1750.010.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0479.1778.050.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0459.0956.380.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0433.3334.54-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0447.8347.08-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0420.8323.61-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.048.3310.90-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0461.9067.290.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0447.6247.19-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.044.359.74-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaBE0.000.0466.6765.980.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0440.9142.97-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.004.04-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0347.8350.66-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.060.0370.8371.060.020.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0334.7833.44-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0341.6738.63-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0366.6768.550.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0342.8641.08-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0330.4326.42-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0379.1776.620.030.02
GramblingSWAC0.060.0314.2914.31-0.04-0.02
HawaiiWAC0.060.0357.1453.020.010.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4369.050.000.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0379.1774.200.030.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0325.0023.73-0.03-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0363.6457.790.020.01
RutgersBE0.060.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0334.7832.10-0.02-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0335.0035.26-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0369.5765.880.000.01