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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Coastal Carolina

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:166.5
Current RPI:185
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:289
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:14-11
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC RPI:172
Expected OOC SOS:172



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-8118.82.17%
16-9136.712.01%
15-10154.730.51%
14-11172.532.78%
13-12190.217.60%
12-13208.14.40%
11-14227.00.52%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Nevada (129.7)MWCN56-73L0%0.0
11-15Hawaii (96.9)BWA74-63L0%0.0
11-24College of Charleston (100.9)CAAA61-67W100%0.0
11-28Campbell (326.3)BSthA79-73L0%0.0
12-2Auburn (156.6)SECH78-81L0%0.0
12-6Radford (161.5)BSthH63-58W100%0.0
12-14Wofford (201.4)SCA63-71W100%0.0
12-18Wake Forest (121.0)ACCA83-77L0%0.0
12-20Alabama St. (302.2)SWACH68-65W100%0.0
12-31Gardner Webb (208.7)BSthA65-61L0%0.0
1-2Winthrop (166.1)BSthH82-63W100%0.0
1-6Liberty (277.9)BSthH61-62L0%0.0
1-9Longwood (327.1)BSthA76-61L0%0.0
1-14Presbyterian (330.1)BSthH87-58W100%0.0
1-16High Point (176.6)BSthA68-71W100%0.0
1-23Charleston Southern (263.1)BSthA63-78W100%0.0
1-27UNC Asheville (139.0)BSthH68-66W100%0.0
1-30Campbell (326.3)BSthH97-68W100%0.0
2-3Presbyterian (330.1)BSthA66-69W100%0.0
2-6Radford (161.5)BSthA0-045%-1.4
2-11High Point (176.6)BSthH0-056%1.6
2-13Gardner Webb (208.7)BSthH0-075%7.3
2-18Winthrop (166.1)BSthA0-040%-2.8
2-25Charleston Southern (263.1)BSthH0-085%11.2
2-27UNC Asheville (139.0)BSthA0-033%-4.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coastal CarolinaBSth26.5126.5260.9259.875.795.23
CampbellBSth6.045.1227.7828.74-2.68-2.17
Charleston SouthernBSth3.475.0826.3231.10-1.64-1.92
PresbyterianBSth5.975.0829.4129.62-2.46-2.07
WinthropBSth3.545.0868.4266.151.301.64
UNC AshevilleBSth3.485.0566.6767.921.161.81
Gardner WebbBSth3.485.0540.0046.04-0.70-0.40
RadfordBSth3.415.0555.0055.620.340.57
High PointBSth3.405.0461.1164.770.761.49
LibertyBSth3.483.2028.5730.43-1.49-1.25
LongwoodBSth3.473.2015.0019.48-2.43-1.95
Alabama St.SWAC2.702.0827.7835.08-1.20-0.62
College of CharlestonCAA2.762.0865.0062.140.830.50
WoffordSC2.772.0840.0044.89-0.55-0.21
HawaiiBW2.762.0782.3579.371.791.22
AuburnSEC2.702.0440.0035.03-0.54-0.61
NevadaMWC2.702.0455.5654.490.300.18
Wake ForestACC2.632.0042.8640.14-0.38-0.39
FurmanSC0.380.3354.5553.780.030.02
VMISC0.400.3016.6718.97-0.26-0.18
The CitadelSC0.400.2635.0031.39-0.12-0.10
Western CarolinaSC0.250.2525.0029.91-0.13-0.10
GeorgiaSEC0.140.2260.0056.080.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.2252.1749.340.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.190.2214.2918.63-0.14-0.14
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.260.2275.0071.280.130.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.2257.1457.930.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.190.2150.0048.260.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.250.2159.0962.730.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.250.1870.0069.360.100.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1830.0033.57-0.08-0.06
ElonCAA0.190.1854.5553.020.020.01
LSUSEC0.250.1863.6459.440.070.03
ChattanoogaSC0.260.1885.7184.560.180.12
Virginia TechACC0.190.1752.1747.250.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.1521.0529.16-0.12-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.200.1523.8125.03-0.11-0.08
RichmondA100.260.1552.3853.680.010.01
ClemsonACC0.260.1463.6462.340.070.04
AlabamaSEC0.130.1457.1452.310.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.1450.0054.850.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.120.1456.5253.460.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.1469.5768.670.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.144.7614.01-0.12-0.10
MercerSC0.190.1471.4370.600.080.06
Texas TechB120.140.1161.9054.010.030.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1126.0925.56-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1176.1979.640.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.070.1168.1863.250.020.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1136.8437.30-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1136.8432.84-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1121.7424.60-0.08-0.06
HowardMEAC0.140.1140.0042.53-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1117.3921.76-0.09-0.06
VCUA100.120.1177.2776.780.070.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1070.0068.920.050.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1063.6464.090.040.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.1081.8281.010.040.06
Notre DameACC0.120.1068.1863.720.040.03
AkronMAC0.070.0881.8279.750.040.05
CharlotteCUSA0.130.0836.3642.19-0.04-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0860.0061.350.010.02
MarquetteBE0.140.0865.2256.530.040.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0841.6743.51-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0831.5833.51-0.05-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0818.1822.83-0.08-0.04
StanfordP120.070.0852.6347.690.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0854.5555.190.010.01
ArmyPat0.060.0754.5556.020.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0731.5836.16-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0730.0028.61-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0777.2771.670.030.03
IowaB100.060.0781.8279.900.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0742.8651.33-0.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0710.5325.37-0.05-0.04
UC DavisBW0.070.0736.8434.20-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0772.7371.670.000.03
UC RiversideBW0.070.0747.8343.92-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.0740.0049.74-0.03-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.140.0738.1041.23-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0742.8635.05-0.01-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.2944.50-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0733.3334.18-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0766.6766.030.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0750.0048.750.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0722.7323.64-0.03-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0057.290.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0716.6720.71-0.05-0.04
HofstraCAA0.060.0768.1865.420.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0750.0056.540.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0740.9139.22-0.01-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0747.8348.69-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.060.0747.8343.63-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0766.6767.290.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0747.6252.96-0.010.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0763.1666.150.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0747.6257.27-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.130.0763.6457.330.030.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0752.3857.440.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0747.3749.38-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.140.0740.9140.46-0.03-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.130.0765.0064.310.040.02
Miami FLACC0.120.0780.9575.640.080.04
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0750.0045.730.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.130.0781.8278.320.080.04
UMBCAE0.120.0720.8325.01-0.07-0.03
SamfordSC0.060.0740.9143.37-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0754.5552.750.010.00
HarvardIvy0.130.0736.8441.45-0.03-0.01
MissouriSEC0.130.0736.3630.98-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.120.0786.3680.660.090.04
DukeACC0.060.0772.7369.920.030.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0763.6456.050.020.01
XavierBE0.120.0790.9184.430.100.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0410.0015.28-0.06-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0452.1754.140.000.00
OklahomaB120.070.0490.4884.890.060.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0427.2730.43-0.03-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0461.9058.190.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.044.557.91-0.06-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0433.3332.01-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0457.8955.400.010.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0422.7324.85-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0445.4541.98-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0450.0046.870.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0473.9176.040.030.02
George MasonA100.060.0436.3635.33-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0433.3332.69-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0436.3635.58-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0465.2265.230.020.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0460.0054.590.010.00
PacificWCC0.070.0421.0524.61-0.04-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0433.3339.27-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0470.5974.500.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0471.4370.810.030.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0425.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0431.8232.32-0.03-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0434.7841.59-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0433.3332.41-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0435.0036.57-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0327.2732.84-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0331.8226.61-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.060.0352.3856.770.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0372.7366.970.030.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0368.1867.800.020.01
IndianaB100.060.0382.6177.370.040.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0372.7369.690.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0381.8277.490.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0342.8641.75-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0318.7526.09-0.04-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0380.0070.290.000.01
RutgersB100.060.0322.7320.68-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0385.7176.030.040.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.710.020.01
UCLAP120.060.0356.5253.350.010.00
VirginiaACC0.060.0381.8276.020.040.02