Coastal Carolina

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	259.0
Current RPI:	259
Expected SOS:	270
Current SOS:	270
Current Record:	11-15
Expected Record:	11-15
Current Conf Record:	9-8
Expected Conf Record:	9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-7
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	255
Expected OOC SOS:	52

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-15	259.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Akron (43.0)	MAC	H	74-70	W	100%
11-13	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	A	90-72	L	0%
11-15	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	A	71-69	L	0%
11-24	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	77-87	L	0%
11-28	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	74-44	L	0%
12-6	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	63-69	L	0%
12-19	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	H	69-46	W	100%
12-22	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	60-51	L	0%
1-5	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	72-80	W	100%
1-9	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	61-43	W	100%
1-12	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	A	64-56	L	0%
1-16	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	A	66-65	L	0%
1-19	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	72-49	W	100%
1-23	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	63-60	L	0%
1-26	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	73-59	W	100%
1-30	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	61-48	L	0%
2-2	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	62-52	W	100%
2-6	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	73-53	W	100%
2-9	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	74-62	L	0%
2-13	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	A	53-60	W	100%
2-16	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	63-70	L	0%
2-19	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	H	65-64	W	100%
2-23	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	80-70	L	0%
2-27	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	73-54	W	100%
3-2	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	75-64	L	0%
3-5	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	61-78	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Coastal Carolina	BSth	26.30	26.30	40.20	40.20	-5.16	-5.16
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.79	4.79	57.69	57.69	0.74	0.74
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.77	4.77	57.14	57.14	0.68	0.68
Liberty	BSth	4.71	4.71	33.33	33.33	-1.57	-1.57
Winthrop	BSth	4.70	4.70	38.46	38.46	-1.09	-1.09
NC Asheville	BSth	4.70	4.70	44.44	44.44	-0.52	-0.52
Presbyterian	BSth	4.67	4.67	18.52	18.52	-2.94	-2.94
Boston University	AE	3.85	3.85	55.56	55.56	0.43	0.43
Campbell	BSth	2.77	2.77	37.93	37.93	-0.67	-0.67
Longwood	BSth	2.75	2.75	20.00	20.00	-1.65	-1.65
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.74	2.74	40.74	40.74	-0.51	-0.51
Radford	BSth	2.71	2.71	35.71	35.71	-0.77	-0.77
High Point	BSth	2.70	2.70	51.85	51.85	0.10	0.10
College of Charleston	SC	2.12	2.12	71.88	71.88	0.93	0.93
Western Carolina	SC	2.11	2.11	36.67	36.67	-0.56	-0.56
Akron	MAC	1.99	1.99	83.33	83.33	1.33	1.33
Clemson	ACC	1.99	1.99	43.33	43.33	-0.27	-0.27
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.99	1.99	34.62	34.62	-0.61	-0.61
Florida International	SB	1.92	1.92	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Mississippi	SEC	1.92	1.92	75.76	75.76	0.99	0.99
The Citadel	SC	0.42	0.42	21.43	21.43	-0.24	-0.24
Austin Peay	OVC	0.23	0.23	20.69	20.69	-0.13	-0.13
Appalachian St.	SC	0.22	0.22	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.22	0.22	20.69	20.69	-0.13	-0.13
Tennessee	SEC	0.22	0.22	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	57.69	57.69	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.20	0.20	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Auburn	SEC	0.19	0.19	28.12	28.12	-0.08	-0.08
Furman	SC	0.19	0.19	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.17	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.16	0.16	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Elon	SC	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.15	0.15	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Belmont	OVC	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Albany	AE	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Binghamton	AE	0.13	0.13	6.90	6.90	-0.11	-0.11
Hartford	AE	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
New Hampshire	AE	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.13	0.13	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.06	0.06
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.04	0.04	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.04	0.04	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.04	0.04	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.04	0.04	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.04	0.04	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00