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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Coastal Carolina

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:124.0
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:305
Current Record:20-9
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:107
Expected OOC SOS:267



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9124.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UCLA (48.0)P12A84-71L0%0.0
11-26Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBN48-61W100%0.0
11-27Chattanooga (112.0)SCA78-67L0%0.0
12-2South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH66-52W100%0.0
12-5Auburn (129.0)SECA54-58W100%0.0
12-14South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA43-57W100%0.0
12-18Mississippi (60.0)SECA71-68L0%0.0
12-21Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA55-72W100%0.0
12-31High Point (89.0)BSthA68-83W100%0.0
1-3Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH83-74W100%0.0
1-8Longwood (316.0)BSthH76-70W100%0.0
1-10Liberty (347.0)BSthA54-69W100%0.0
1-12Campbell (323.0)BSthA67-70W100%0.0
1-17Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH67-82L0%0.0
1-22UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA75-65L0%0.0
1-24Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH63-52W100%0.0
1-28Winthrop (210.0)BSthH68-75L0%0.0
1-31Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthA66-64L0%0.0
2-3UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH68-56W100%0.0
2-6High Point (89.0)BSthH65-60W100%0.0
2-11Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA83-72L0%0.0
2-14Liberty (347.0)BSthH96-56W100%0.0
2-16Radford (154.0)BSthA59-65W100%0.0
2-19Campbell (323.0)BSthH81-57W100%0.0
2-23Longwood (316.0)BSthA59-72W100%0.0
2-26Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA80-69L0%0.0
3-6UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthN74-57W100%0.0
3-7Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthN73-70W100%0.0
3-8Winthrop (210.0)BSthN81-70W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coastal CarolinaBSth26.6926.6974.0774.0712.8512.85
Gardner WebbBSth6.266.2651.8551.850.230.23
UNC AshevilleBSth6.186.1844.0044.00-0.74-0.74
LongwoodBSth4.664.6630.0030.00-1.87-1.87
WinthropBSth4.634.6355.5655.560.510.51
CampbellBSth4.594.5925.9325.93-2.21-2.21
High PointBSth4.564.5673.0873.082.102.10
Charleston SouthernBSth4.544.5460.0060.000.910.91
LibertyBSth4.534.5315.3815.38-3.14-3.14
PresbyterianBSth4.464.4619.2319.23-2.74-2.74
South Carolina St.MEAC3.453.4531.0331.03-1.31-1.31
RadfordBSth2.922.9264.2964.290.840.84
MississippiSEC1.811.8161.2961.290.410.41
AuburnSEC1.811.8142.4242.42-0.27-0.27
Central ArkansasSlnd1.791.797.147.14-1.53-1.53
ChattanoogaSC1.721.7265.5265.520.540.54
Louisiana MonroeSB1.721.7260.7160.710.370.37
UCLAP121.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.2326.6726.67-0.11-0.11
FurmanSC0.230.2329.0329.03-0.10-0.10
ClemsonACC0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
LSUSEC0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
Western CarolinaSC0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.200.2027.2727.27-0.09-0.09
WoffordSC0.180.1881.2581.250.110.11
UABCUSA0.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
ArizonaP120.140.1491.1891.180.110.11
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Ohio St.B100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
FloridaSEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0955.5655.560.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01