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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:217.3
Current RPI:289
Expected SOS:166
Current SOS:229
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-993.50.02%
20-1090.20.12%
19-11108.50.49%
18-12126.51.65%
17-13143.73.88%
16-14161.57.51%
15-15181.812.11%
14-16200.716.66%
13-17220.618.11%
12-18239.016.22%
11-19256.911.49%
10-20273.46.82%
9-21289.33.26%
8-22302.61.31%
7-23312.80.28%
6-24321.70.03%
5-25332.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oakland (89.5)HorzA78-70L0%0.0
11-13South Dakota (218.7)SumA78-72L0%0.0
11-19UMKC (146.9)WACH69-71L0%0.0
11-20Green Bay (161.8)HorzH61-77L0%0.0
11-21Murray St. (139.5)OVCH78-77W100%0.0
11-26Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH90-58W100%0.0
12-4Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA0-04%-21.4
12-6Evansville (205.3)MVCA0-035%-4.7
12-10Detroit (301.2)HorzH0-082%11.2
12-18San Jose St. (205.1)MWCA0-041%-2.7
12-22Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-098%24.2
12-30Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACH0-083%11.4
1-3Akron (74.5)MACA0-017%-11.4
1-7Ball St. (212.5)MACA0-037%-3.9
1-10Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH0-042%-2.4
1-14Northern Illinois (209.4)MACH0-057%2.2
1-17Toledo (153.9)MACA0-034%-5.1
1-21Ball St. (212.5)MACH0-057%2.2
1-24Central Michigan (157.8)MACA0-033%-5.2
1-28Ohio (94.7)MACH0-040%-3.1
1-31Miami OH (271.3)MACH0-073%7.3
2-4Toledo (153.9)MACH0-054%1.1
2-7Kent St. (205.9)MACA0-034%-4.8
2-11Buffalo (138.0)MACH0-052%0.6
2-14Western Michigan (212.4)MACA0-041%-2.7
2-18Ohio (94.7)MACA0-022%-9.3
2-21Akron (74.5)MACH0-033%-5.2
2-25Miami OH (271.3)MACA0-054%1.1
2-28Kent St. (205.9)MACH0-054%1.3
3-3Buffalo (138.0)MACA0-032%-5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC28.8726.2623.0841.28-15.54-4.58
Kent St.MAC0.604.1450.0051.550.000.13
ToledoMAC0.004.1142.8649.92-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.004.1140.0050.39-0.000.03
AkronMAC0.004.0883.3369.460.001.59
Miami OHMAC0.004.0850.0032.730.00-1.41
OhioMAC0.004.0880.0068.250.001.49
Ball St.MAC0.004.0350.0052.300.000.19
Western MichiganMAC0.692.5316.6735.65-0.46-0.73
Central MichiganMAC0.692.5366.6755.990.230.30
Eastern MichiganMAC0.002.5050.0055.770.000.29
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.4742.8645.39-0.00-0.23
Green BayHorz9.521.9520.0046.88-5.71-0.12
DetroitHorz0.001.900.0019.57-0.00-1.15
Murray St.OVC9.621.8150.0064.190.000.51
OaklandHorz8.331.8180.0077.665.001.00
EvansvilleMVC0.001.7833.3339.50-0.00-0.37
UMKCWAC10.221.7566.6754.423.410.16
South DakotaSum8.931.7550.0045.340.00-0.16
Alabama A&MSWAC0.601.730.0013.70-0.60-1.25
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.730.0039.14-0.00-0.37
Morgan St.MEAC8.331.7020.0038.46-5.00-0.39
CincinnatiAmer0.001.6785.7180.440.001.01
San Jose St.MWC0.001.6740.0036.61-0.00-0.45
Wright St.Horz0.000.3771.4355.750.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.3216.6730.27-0.00-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2942.8637.60-0.00-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.260.0018.22-0.00-0.17
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.2650.0052.140.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2314.2928.66-0.00-0.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.2333.3333.15-0.00-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2385.7174.430.000.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2050.0050.290.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.2028.5747.72-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.2083.3359.600.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1733.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1728.5734.18-0.00-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.600.1785.7173.010.430.08
NevadaMWC0.690.1575.0070.470.350.06
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1540.0041.65-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.600.14100.0076.650.600.08
Fort WayneSum0.000.1466.6770.930.000.06
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1416.6727.03-0.00-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1466.6754.420.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0042.710.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1250.0058.980.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.120.0024.19-0.00-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1233.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.690.120.0017.30-0.69-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1214.2937.52-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.1225.0056.92-0.000.02
DrakeMVC1.190.120.0021.30-1.19-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0023.26-0.00-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1242.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.110.0022.69-0.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1114.2934.56-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1150.0029.280.00-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0024.77-0.00-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1183.3377.170.000.06
HoustonAmer1.290.1183.3376.370.860.06
UCFAmer0.000.1183.3374.620.000.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0916.6731.91-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0916.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0023.46-0.00-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0034.18-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.77-0.00-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.600.0950.0038.430.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0975.0054.320.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0933.3341.11-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0985.7155.550.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0957.1440.590.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.600.0950.0066.170.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.600.0950.0046.670.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.39-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0024.25-0.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.060.000.07
MissouriSEC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0975.0064.960.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.460.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.690.090.0019.30-0.69-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0925.0039.28-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6770.740.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0857.1469.300.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0857.1467.020.000.03
XavierBE0.000.08100.0074.800.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0857.1448.240.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6732.240.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.600.0614.2947.44-0.43-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0650.0043.490.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0620.0054.94-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
BrownIvy0.690.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3338.76-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0571.4363.570.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.690.0325.0033.54-0.35-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.690.0350.0051.260.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
TowsonCAA0.690.0350.0054.490.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3353.85-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
HofstraCAA0.600.0357.1440.550.09-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.690.0385.7155.890.500.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
PacificWCC0.690.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
UC DavisBW0.690.0357.1448.410.10-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0083.120.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00