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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:194.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:104
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:176
Expected OOC SOS:102



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20194.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15South Florida (232.0)AmerH61-75L0%0.0
11-21Wisconsin (6.0)B10A88-64L0%0.0
11-23Saint Louis (27.0)A10A74-47L0%0.0
11-26Presbyterian (349.0)BSthN67-45W100%0.0
11-27Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndN56-63L0%0.0
12-2Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH74-62W100%0.0
12-7Xavier (47.0)BEA85-73L0%0.0
12-11North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH79-69W100%0.0
12-15Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA61-67W100%0.0
12-22Detroit (230.0)HorzH64-62W100%0.0
12-29Wright St. (173.0)HorzA46-43L0%0.0
1-2IPFW (115.0)SumH60-65L0%0.0
1-8Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH51-56L0%0.0
1-12Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH36-45L0%0.0
1-15Central Michigan (294.0)MACH67-57W100%0.0
1-19Western Michigan (66.0)MACA64-69W100%0.0
1-22Ohio (87.0)MACA56-58W100%0.0
1-25Miami OH (161.0)MACH65-70L0%0.0
1-29Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA69-57L0%0.0
2-2Buffalo (106.0)MACH74-68W100%0.0
2-5Toledo (38.0)MACA83-76L0%0.0
2-9Akron (93.0)MACH63-65L0%0.0
2-12Kent St. (213.0)MACA62-61L0%0.0
2-15Ball St. (309.0)MACA64-66W100%0.0
2-20Toledo (38.0)MACH58-60L0%0.0
2-23Miami OH (161.0)MACA55-52L0%0.0
2-26Kent St. (213.0)MACH73-66W100%0.0
3-1Akron (93.0)MACA57-47L0%0.0
3-4Ohio (87.0)MACH61-72L0%0.0
3-8Buffalo (106.0)MACA88-65L0%0.0
3-10Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA54-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.2226.2235.1735.17-7.78-7.78
Miami OHMAC4.114.1139.2939.29-0.88-0.88
AkronMAC4.094.0961.2961.290.920.92
Eastern MichiganMAC4.094.0953.3353.330.270.27
OhioMAC4.094.0967.7467.741.451.45
ToledoMAC4.044.0480.0080.002.422.42
Northern IllinoisMAC4.014.0141.3841.38-0.69-0.69
Kent St.MAC4.014.0148.2848.28-0.14-0.14
BuffaloMAC4.004.0065.3865.381.231.23
Western MichiganMAC2.492.4973.3373.331.161.16
Central MichiganMAC2.452.4528.5728.57-1.05-1.05
Ball St.MAC2.442.4411.1111.11-1.90-1.90
DetroitHorz1.841.8437.9337.93-0.44-0.44
Wright St.Horz1.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
Oral RobertsSlnd1.711.7142.8642.86-0.24-0.24
WisconsinB101.691.6978.1278.120.950.95
XavierBE1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
IPFWSum1.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
Saint LouisA101.671.6780.0080.001.001.00
Morehead St.OVC1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
South FloridaAmer1.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
North DakotaBSky1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth1.611.6113.7913.79-1.17-1.17
Western KentuckySB1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
Cleveland St.Horz0.360.3663.3363.330.100.10
OaklandHorz0.250.2535.4835.48-0.07-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
MassachusettsA100.230.2375.0075.000.120.12
ValparaisoHorz0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.10-0.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.2121.21-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
DaytonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.08-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02