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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:225.0
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:151
Current SOS:151
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:245



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19225.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oakland (109.0)HorzA78-70L0%0.0
11-13South Dakota (123.0)SumA78-72L0%0.0
11-19UMKC (184.0)WACH69-71L0%0.0
11-20Green Bay (157.0)HorzH61-77L0%0.0
11-21Murray St. (230.0)OVCH78-77W100%0.0
11-26Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH90-58W100%0.0
12-4Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA85-56L0%0.0
12-6Evansville (188.0)MVCA69-66L0%0.0
12-10Detroit (289.0)HorzH74-61W100%0.0
12-18San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA77-76L0%0.0
12-22Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH74-61W100%0.0
12-30Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH86-77W100%0.0
1-3Akron (58.0)MACA89-84L0%0.0
1-7Ball St. (169.0)MACA71-76W100%0.0
1-10Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH53-81L0%0.0
1-14Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH52-69L0%0.0
1-17Toledo (155.0)MACA85-73L0%0.0
1-21Ball St. (169.0)MACH79-74W100%0.0
1-24Central Michigan (216.0)MACA82-76L0%0.0
1-28Ohio (117.0)MACH72-96L0%0.0
1-31Miami OH (302.0)MACH83-72W100%0.0
2-4Toledo (155.0)MACH104-100W100%0.0
2-7Kent St. (142.0)MACA83-84W100%0.0
2-11Buffalo (146.0)MACH74-88L0%0.0
2-14Western Michigan (173.0)MACA89-79L0%0.0
2-18Ohio (117.0)MACA95-75L0%0.0
2-21Akron (58.0)MACH66-65W100%0.0
2-25Miami OH (302.0)MACA54-70W100%0.0
2-28Kent St. (142.0)MACH67-74L0%0.0
3-3Buffalo (146.0)MACA80-68L0%0.0
3-6Toledo (155.0)MACA77-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.2726.2736.0936.09-7.31-7.31
ToledoMAC5.605.6048.2848.28-0.19-0.19
Kent St.MAC4.194.1962.5062.501.051.05
AkronMAC4.064.0677.4277.422.222.22
OhioMAC4.044.0460.7160.710.870.87
BuffaloMAC3.993.9946.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Ball St.MAC3.983.9866.6766.671.331.33
Miami OHMAC3.953.9532.1432.14-1.41-1.41
Western MichiganMAC2.552.5546.6746.67-0.17-0.17
Central MichiganMAC2.502.5044.8344.83-0.26-0.26
Eastern MichiganMAC2.492.4939.2939.29-0.53-0.53
Northern IllinoisMAC2.412.4139.2939.29-0.52-0.52
Green BayHorz1.901.9053.5753.570.140.14
DetroitHorz1.851.8524.1424.14-0.96-0.96
Murray St.OVC1.751.7546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
OaklandHorz1.751.7572.4172.410.780.78
EvansvilleMVC1.741.7443.3343.33-0.23-0.23
UMKCWAC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
South DakotaSum1.691.6963.3363.330.450.45
Norfolk St.MEAC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC1.661.667.147.14-1.43-1.43
Morgan St.MEAC1.641.6446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
CincinnatiAmer1.611.6184.8584.851.121.12
San Jose St.MWC1.611.6140.7440.74-0.30-0.30
Wright St.Horz0.370.3760.0060.000.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.310.3134.3834.38-0.10-0.10
Cleveland St.Horz0.290.2926.6726.67-0.14-0.14
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2429.4129.41-0.10-0.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.230.2323.3323.33-0.13-0.13
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.2087.8887.880.150.15
MarshallCUSA0.200.2055.8855.880.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
NevadaMWC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Fort WayneSum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1081.2581.250.070.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SMUAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00