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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:198.6
Current RPI:212
Expected SOS:179
Current SOS:257
Current Record:11-11
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:203
Expected OOC SOS:341



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11135.00.01%
17-12147.80.24%
16-13160.73.07%
15-14174.311.74%
14-15188.225.87%
13-16202.632.91%
12-17216.920.82%
11-18231.55.33%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14New Orleans (312.5)SlndH79-61W100%0.0
11-18Cincinnati (46.2)AmerH50-83L0%0.0
11-21North Dakota (210.4)BSkyN59-77L0%0.0
11-22Youngstown St. (258.7)HorzN72-79W100%0.0
11-23Florida Gulf Coast (215.7)ASunA77-82W100%0.0
12-2UMBC (320.1)AEH72-64W100%0.0
12-5Drake (306.0)MVCH75-63W100%0.0
12-8Southeast Missouri St. (332.3)OVCA52-79W100%0.0
12-12Detroit (208.9)HorzA95-80L0%0.0
12-20Wright St. (157.6)HorzA83-47L0%0.0
12-23Cleveland St. (273.3)HorzA47-62W100%0.0
1-6Miami OH (216.8)MACH73-62W100%0.0
1-9Central Michigan (144.1)MACH67-79L0%0.0
1-12Ohio (98.1)MACA75-91W100%0.0
1-16Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACA79-84W100%0.0
1-19Toledo (139.5)MACH74-81L0%0.0
1-23Kent St. (107.4)MACH59-62L0%0.0
1-26Western Michigan (217.6)MACA78-79W100%0.0
1-30Central Michigan (144.1)MACA77-65L0%0.0
2-2Ball St. (166.1)MACH64-72L0%0.0
2-6Miami OH (216.8)MACA55-51L0%0.0
2-9Akron (33.3)MACH68-83L0%0.0
2-13Western Michigan (217.6)MACH0-057%1.9
2-16Northern Illinois (141.2)MACA0-026%-7.0
2-20Buffalo (92.4)MACA0-022%-8.5
2-23Ohio (98.1)MACH0-044%-1.6
2-27Akron (33.3)MACA0-010%-13.7
3-1Kent St. (107.4)MACA0-027%-6.7
3-4Buffalo (92.4)MACH0-043%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.3426.2850.0046.610.00-1.78
Kent St.MAC2.894.3163.6458.730.790.75
AkronMAC2.904.2881.8280.171.842.58
OhioMAC2.834.2766.6763.910.941.19
Miami OHMAC5.014.2433.3331.89-1.67-1.54
BuffaloMAC0.624.2256.5256.240.080.53
Western MichiganMAC2.734.1633.3333.52-0.91-1.37
Central MichiganMAC4.964.1642.1145.45-0.78-0.38
ToledoMAC2.782.6559.0960.730.500.57
Ball St.MAC2.852.5959.0955.710.520.30
Eastern MichiganMAC2.842.5842.1145.11-0.45-0.25
Northern IllinoisMAC0.672.5860.0056.970.130.36
Cleveland St.Horz2.682.1122.7323.55-1.46-1.12
Youngstown St.Horz2.692.0631.8233.51-0.98-0.68
Wright St.Horz2.582.0054.5555.470.230.22
DetroitHorz2.681.9645.0043.77-0.27-0.24
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.431.8550.0054.130.000.15
North DakotaBSky2.381.7944.4447.93-0.26-0.07
New OrleansSlnd2.321.7529.4135.81-0.96-0.50
CincinnatiAmer2.271.7270.8370.590.950.71
DrakeMVC2.271.7221.7424.04-1.28-0.90
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.271.7214.2916.38-1.62-1.16
UMBCAE2.271.7225.0027.21-1.14-0.79
Green BayHorz0.350.3354.5556.020.030.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.300.305.007.21-0.27-0.26
MilwaukeeHorz0.360.3059.0959.630.070.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.300.3033.3335.06-0.10-0.09
OaklandHorz0.410.3068.0067.980.150.11
ValparaisoHorz0.300.2781.8283.040.190.18
LipscombASun0.200.1825.0029.30-0.10-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.280.1665.0069.240.080.06
BradleyMVC0.220.1512.5012.90-0.16-0.11
NJITASun0.150.1554.1755.280.010.02
NortheasternCAA0.200.1545.8346.64-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1572.0070.540.070.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.1543.4842.66-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.100.1552.0054.860.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1429.1733.12-0.04-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.1452.1754.170.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1317.6529.05-0.11-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1350.0049.830.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.1240.9143.71-0.01-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.210.1245.4546.24-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.200.1250.0044.860.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.150.1270.8368.550.060.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1250.0054.200.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1250.0051.210.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.1271.4368.940.020.04
TulsaAmer0.100.1265.2261.470.030.03
XavierBE0.190.1287.5081.810.150.07
CanisiusMAAC0.050.1144.0045.31-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.1120.8324.09-0.03-0.06
SMUAmer0.090.1190.9186.110.080.08
IdahoBSky0.060.1054.5554.950.010.01
North FloridaASun0.170.1065.2267.130.050.03
South DakotaSum0.100.0941.6741.23-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.0928.5726.98-0.05-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0914.2924.89-0.03-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.100.0945.4549.67-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.0925.0024.33-0.08-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.150.0954.1755.020.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0972.2275.580.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.0940.9143.54-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0975.0076.250.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0939.1337.81-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0966.6762.650.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0956.5259.860.010.02
TulaneAmer0.160.0933.3332.36-0.05-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0914.2920.67-0.08-0.05
DaytonA100.150.0986.9682.300.110.06
Penn St.B100.110.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.0972.7367.630.050.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.0968.1866.650.050.03
HowardMEAC0.150.0936.3638.92-0.04-0.02
DePaulBE0.100.0933.3334.01-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0952.1751.910.010.00
MemphisAmer0.140.0960.8760.820.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0924.0025.67-0.05-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0943.4850.65-0.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0923.8126.56-0.05-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0931.8236.14-0.04-0.02
IUPUISum0.150.0940.0039.81-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0973.9170.050.020.03
VCUA100.050.0973.9173.970.020.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.0725.0030.01-0.06-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0752.3854.080.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.120.0745.0046.13-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0721.7423.40-0.03-0.04
MassachusettsA100.120.0740.9139.33-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0757.8962.320.010.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0718.1821.15-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0717.6526.57-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0723.8127.67-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0776.1972.280.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0722.7323.24-0.03-0.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0740.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.54-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0617.3920.65-0.03-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0647.8350.19-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0635.0034.80-0.01-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0677.2776.870.060.03
BelmontOVC0.100.0666.6766.540.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0628.5728.55-0.02-0.03
BYUWCC0.110.0666.6769.490.040.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0682.6181.120.070.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.0645.4554.14-0.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.110.0671.4369.830.050.02
DuquesneA100.110.0660.8756.430.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0636.8442.89-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.72-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0652.0050.250.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0669.5764.890.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0654.1750.940.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.490.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0669.5769.020.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0631.8229.12-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.420.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0673.9176.720.050.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.0656.5257.280.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0628.0030.73-0.04-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0650.0053.100.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0621.7423.34-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0675.0071.800.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0622.7327.22-0.05-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.720.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0621.7424.19-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0656.5262.790.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0682.6178.910.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.460.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0642.8650.39-0.010.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.910.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.0622.7324.97-0.05-0.03
AlbanyAE0.090.0676.0076.310.050.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.480.020.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0643.4841.96-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0625.0026.75-0.02-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0669.5766.580.020.02
MaineAE0.090.0633.3333.13-0.03-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0657.1453.990.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.090.0620.0019.68-0.05-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0681.8282.630.030.04
TempleAmer0.090.0663.6459.810.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0634.7835.65-0.01-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0350.0049.790.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0352.9452.080.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0360.8758.300.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.46-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0330.0029.27-0.03-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0357.8961.740.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.760.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0363.6462.150.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0310.0013.14-0.05-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0364.0062.060.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0331.5837.70-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.1145.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.25-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0315.0015.34-0.04-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2677.860.030.02
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.830.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0379.1776.070.030.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0380.0081.600.030.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.930.010.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0334.7830.33-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.370.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0356.5256.320.010.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0360.0055.500.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.10-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.04-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.550.030.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.700.040.02
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0355.0054.530.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0324.0024.55-0.03-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.790.020.01
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.930.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.170.010.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.73-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.150.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.80-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.410.030.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0362.5062.370.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.880.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.40-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.770.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.46-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01