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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:158.0
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:143
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:152
Expected OOC SOS:138


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15158.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Howard (284.0)MEACH63-48W100%0.0
11-13Georgia (101.0)SECA63-54L0%0.0
11-21Austin Peay (193.0)OVCH82-72W100%0.0
11-22Detroit (126.0)HorzH67-61W100%0.0
11-23George Washington (188.0)A10H56-77L0%0.0
11-27Temple (19.0)A10H67-64W100%0.0
12-4Western Kentucky (189.0)SBA60-53L0%0.0
12-10Valparaiso (95.0)HorzA82-79L0%0.0
12-17Michigan St. (4.0)B10A74-60L0%0.0
12-22Florida International (251.0)SBA53-61W100%0.0
12-28Duquesne (109.0)A10A86-76L0%0.0
1-1Texas San Antonio (196.0)SlndA86-79L0%0.0
1-7Ohio (47.0)MACH67-57W100%0.0
1-11Akron (55.0)MACH55-56L0%0.0
1-14Kent St. (106.0)MACA92-87L0%0.0
1-18Miami OH (247.0)MACA57-65W100%0.0
1-21Buffalo (78.0)MACH66-68L0%0.0
1-25Central Michigan (280.0)MACH71-58W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Michigan (243.0)MACA55-50L0%0.0
2-1Western Michigan (205.0)MACA48-72W100%0.0
2-4Northern Illinois (334.0)MACH65-40W100%0.0
2-8Ball St. (256.0)MACA54-61W100%0.0
2-11Toledo (246.0)MACH66-63W100%0.0
2-15Ohio (47.0)MACA72-59L0%0.0
2-18Morehead St. (166.0)OVCH73-60W100%0.0
2-22Akron (55.0)MACA79-68L0%0.0
2-25Kent St. (106.0)MACH74-58W100%0.0
2-29Miami OH (247.0)MACH56-51W100%0.0
3-3Buffalo (78.0)MACA68-64L0%0.0
3-5Central Michigan (280.0)MACH53-54L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.1426.1450.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC4.154.1563.3363.331.111.11
OhioMAC4.114.1180.6580.652.522.52
Kent St.MAC4.074.0765.5265.521.261.26
BuffaloMAC4.034.0361.5461.540.930.93
Miami OHMAC3.983.9829.6329.63-1.62-1.62
Central MichiganMAC3.933.9331.0331.03-1.49-1.49
Western MichiganMAC2.462.4640.6240.62-0.46-0.46
ToledoMAC2.462.4651.6151.610.080.08
Northern IllinoisMAC2.342.3414.2914.29-1.67-1.67
Eastern MichiganMAC2.322.3240.0040.00-0.46-0.46
Ball St.MAC2.312.3150.0050.000.000.00
TempleA101.891.8980.0080.001.131.13
DetroitHorz1.881.8862.5062.500.470.47
ValparaisoHorz1.851.8563.3363.330.490.49
DuquesneA101.821.8248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC1.801.8051.7251.720.060.06
Austin PeayOVC1.771.7736.6736.67-0.47-0.47
George WashingtonA101.771.7730.0030.00-0.71-0.71
Western KentuckySB1.761.7643.7543.75-0.22-0.22
Florida InternationalSB1.741.7429.6329.63-0.71-0.71
Michigan St.B101.691.6978.1278.120.950.95
GeorgiaSEC1.671.6745.1645.16-0.16-0.16
HowardMEAC1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
Texas San AntonioSlnd1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.280.2862.5062.500.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.270.2738.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.250.2560.0060.000.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
Middle TennesseeSB0.220.2280.0080.000.130.13
TroySB0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1939.3939.39-0.04-0.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
XavierA100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
CharlotteA100.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.166.906.90-0.14-0.14
Ohio St.B100.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
ButlerHorz0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1432.0032.00-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
IUPUISum0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
La SalleA100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
West VirginiaBE0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.08-0.08
BelmontASun0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.110.1196.4396.430.100.10
James MadisonCAA0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
NebraskaB100.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiBE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
ArizonaP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Texas St.Slnd0.080.0834.6234.62-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSB0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
North TexasSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
CaliforniaP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
IowaB100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
DukeACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
LouisvilleBE0.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MarylandACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SyracuseBE0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.456.45-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Fresno St.WAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PittsburghBE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00