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Through games of Jan 26, 2015.


Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:70.6
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:191
Current Record:12-4
Expected Record:20-8
Current Conf Record:4-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:77
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-427.10.34%
23-533.82.94%
22-642.310.52%
21-752.820.49%
20-866.526.03%
19-982.021.44%
18-1097.711.64%
17-11114.95.08%
16-12134.41.15%
15-13156.20.33%
14-14183.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Drake (281.7)MVCA58-77W100%0.0
11-19Wright St. (173.6)HorzH70-55W100%0.0
11-25Southeast Missouri St. (270.0)OVCH62-54W100%0.0
11-30Detroit (193.2)HorzA63-64W100%0.0
12-3Western Kentucky (76.3)CUSAA62-52L0%0.0
12-6Alabama A&M (323.5)SWACH64-47W100%0.0
12-9Dayton (38.0)A10A56-52L0%0.0
12-13Cleveland St. (136.7)HorzH67-57W100%0.0
12-28South Florida (231.5)AmerA70-79W100%0.0
1-3Chicago St. (339.6)WACH58-35W100%0.0
1-7Kent St. (101.8)MACA64-66W100%0.0
1-10Ohio (195.4)MACH69-54W100%0.0
1-14Akron (111.0)MACA67-50L0%0.0
1-17Ball St. (198.0)MACH58-46W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Michigan (164.4)MACH74-58W100%0.0
1-24Toledo (89.2)MACA71-67L0%0.0
1-27Northern Illinois (225.6)MACH0-086%11.8
1-31Akron (111.0)MACH0-069%5.4
2-4Central Michigan (68.2)MACA0-030%-5.7
2-7Northern Illinois (225.6)MACA0-068%5.0
2-10Western Michigan (127.4)MACH0-076%7.6
2-14Ball St. (198.0)MACA0-063%3.7
2-18Miami OH (271.4)MACH0-091%15.1
2-21Buffalo (46.5)MACH0-058%2.1
2-24Ohio (195.4)MACA0-065%4.2
2-28Miami OH (271.4)MACA0-078%8.4
3-3Kent St. (101.8)MACH0-069%5.5
3-6Buffalo (46.5)MACA0-034%-4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.4026.3081.2574.4616.5012.87
Miami OHMAC0.274.4633.3331.12-0.09-1.69
Kent St.MAC3.504.4076.4767.701.851.56
BuffaloMAC0.094.3766.6766.370.031.43
OhioMAC3.394.3743.7540.18-0.42-0.86
AkronMAC3.214.3764.7162.620.941.10
Ball St.MAC3.414.3140.0038.89-0.68-0.96
Northern IllinoisMAC0.374.3143.7540.02-0.05-0.86
ToledoMAC3.632.7555.5657.980.400.44
Western MichiganMAC0.532.7264.7158.030.160.44
Eastern MichiganMAC3.392.6857.1455.360.480.29
Central MichiganMAC0.372.6578.5775.260.211.34
DetroitHorz3.531.9742.1143.97-0.56-0.24
Wright St.Horz3.361.9750.0049.800.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz3.371.9452.6355.340.180.21
DaytonA103.331.9183.3378.422.221.09
Alabama A&MSWAC3.291.8826.6732.57-1.54-0.66
Chicago St.WAC3.301.855.8811.99-2.91-1.40
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.221.8241.1842.03-0.57-0.29
Western KentuckyCUSA3.211.8268.7566.341.200.59
DrakeMVC3.121.8216.6718.36-2.08-1.15
South FloridaAmer3.201.8233.3333.28-1.07-0.61
Youngstown St.Horz0.350.3135.0034.43-0.11-0.10
OaklandHorz0.510.3136.8442.19-0.13-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.340.2880.0079.110.200.16
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.330.2815.7918.55-0.22-0.17
Green BayHorz0.330.2578.9577.920.190.14
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.2257.8956.170.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.2228.5736.64-0.12-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.170.2173.6869.260.080.08
BelmontOVC0.440.1963.1663.090.110.05
DePaulBE0.260.1952.3843.050.01-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.1926.3229.12-0.11-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.260.1940.0037.57-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.170.1861.1156.220.040.02
Murray St.OVC0.270.1678.9580.780.160.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1647.3750.47-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.200.1621.0526.08-0.12-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.260.1516.6723.18-0.17-0.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.1335.2935.00-0.03-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.200.130.006.69-0.20-0.11
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1310.0015.21-0.08-0.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.1316.6722.01-0.13-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.270.1333.3334.70-0.09-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.260.1325.0037.78-0.13-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1347.3744.57-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1250.0043.450.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.170.1227.7828.14-0.08-0.05
UMKCWAC0.090.1231.5838.36-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1261.1158.490.040.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1261.1160.430.040.02
MaineAE0.000.1010.0012.94-0.00-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.090.1027.7828.20-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.260.1035.0031.74-0.08-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1030.0031.32-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.170.1043.7540.86-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.090.1090.4884.080.070.07
MississippiSEC0.260.0963.1663.590.070.03
San DiegoWCC0.090.0945.0045.98-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.180.0938.1040.90-0.04-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.170.0936.8441.50-0.04-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.0910.5319.74-0.15-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.100.0942.1135.39-0.02-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.240.0989.4787.870.190.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0957.8956.150.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0976.1976.820.040.05
UTEPCUSA0.180.0963.1668.410.050.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0980.0071.460.060.04
UCFAmer0.080.0944.4441.07-0.01-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.160.0931.2527.84-0.06-0.04
VCUA100.160.0984.2180.650.110.05
ConnecticutAmer0.250.0961.1160.470.050.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0950.0054.930.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0764.2967.420.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0721.0533.20-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.0731.5844.76-0.04-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0758.8257.880.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0745.0057.03-0.000.01
MichiganB100.180.0657.8950.390.030.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0621.0530.50-0.06-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0626.3236.40-0.04-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0642.1151.57-0.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0050.930.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0642.8642.72-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0640.0038.76-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5043.67-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0665.0063.260.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.0657.1458.270.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0062.020.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0678.9579.390.050.04
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0673.6875.860.050.03
SeattleWAC0.090.0647.0649.59-0.01-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0638.8936.56-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.100.0683.3383.680.070.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0635.2938.26-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0621.4339.82-0.05-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.170.0678.9572.140.100.03
Georgia TechACC0.180.0647.3742.90-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.0622.2240.58-0.09-0.01
Arizona St.P120.160.0650.0052.210.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.170.0684.2177.800.120.03
George MasonA100.080.0629.4131.72-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0644.4439.84-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0647.3749.78-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0644.4441.02-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0661.1166.600.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.160.0657.8959.490.030.01
NebraskaB100.090.0663.1651.390.020.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0666.6766.990.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0690.0084.520.070.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0655.5654.970.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0670.5968.840.030.02
OregonP120.160.0668.4259.870.060.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0633.3335.61-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.065.0012.06-0.00-0.05
BryantNEC0.090.0650.0049.250.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0657.8962.600.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0647.0648.23-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0627.7829.49-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0629.4127.39-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0635.2931.66-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0647.3744.10-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0625.0024.52-0.04-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0636.8435.44-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0635.2937.89-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.090.0684.2176.020.060.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0625.0025.64-0.04-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0098.470.000.06
La SalleA100.080.0652.6352.940.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0611.7617.54-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.090.0673.6870.410.040.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0615.7923.11-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0615.0023.69-0.06-0.03
Penn St.B100.090.0665.0051.820.030.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0644.4437.39-0.01-0.02
SMUAmer0.080.0678.9577.540.050.03
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0652.9453.080.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0665.0068.160.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0623.5327.83-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.080.0665.0062.240.020.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0663.1653.840.020.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0677.7872.260.050.03
UMBCAE0.090.0615.0020.03-0.06-0.04
USCP120.090.0647.3740.00-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0661.1159.790.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.0087.160.000.04
YaleIvy0.090.0664.7164.070.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.030.003.50-0.09-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0352.9459.020.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0325.0025.40-0.04-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.0352.6346.710.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.100.0365.0063.970.030.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0333.3330.04-0.03-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0335.0043.91-0.03-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.035.2610.55-0.08-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0342.1145.63-0.01-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0316.6722.10-0.07-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0333.3331.73-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0356.2555.460.010.00
CreightonBE0.090.0342.8638.61-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0363.1666.580.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0373.6872.660.000.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0360.0056.620.020.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0338.8940.89-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0335.2933.20-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0326.6730.25-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0022.84-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0360.0065.760.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0361.1162.850.020.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0343.7543.13-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0371.4374.820.030.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0378.9569.690.050.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0342.1151.85-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0354.5556.830.010.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0052.990.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.080.0325.0032.96-0.04-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0347.3749.50-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0338.8934.78-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0352.6349.050.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0340.0041.97-0.02-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.002.05-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0316.6725.22-0.05-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0322.2226.61-0.04-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.03100.0093.900.080.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0366.6760.600.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0350.0042.950.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0338.8942.63-0.02-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0373.6872.910.000.01
DavidsonA100.080.0376.4776.600.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0350.0044.160.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0371.4369.500.040.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0366.6770.420.030.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0321.0521.30-0.05-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0352.6353.080.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0363.1661.540.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0361.9060.140.020.01
RichmondA100.080.0352.6355.850.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0368.4260.870.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0372.2263.570.040.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0344.4443.27-0.01-0.00
BucknellPat0.080.0350.0050.910.000.00
DukeACC0.080.0389.4783.760.060.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0342.1147.18-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0338.8943.44-0.02-0.00