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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:274.0
Current RPI:274
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:201
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:299
Expected OOC SOS:236


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19274.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzN79-73L0%0.0
11-13IUPUI (326.0)SumN66-80L0%0.0
11-19Robert Morris (132.0)NECA71-60L0%0.0
11-27Detroit (63.0)HorzH70-65W100%0.0
12-1Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzH49-58L0%0.0
12-3Wright St. (129.0)HorzH54-41W100%0.0
12-8Samford (291.0)SCH57-42W100%0.0
12-18Michigan St. (9.0)B10H53-64L0%0.0
12-21South Florida (156.0)BEA87-84L0%0.0
12-28North Dakota (226.0)BSkyA56-53L0%0.0
12-31Temple (42.0)A10A75-57L0%0.0
1-9Central Michigan (268.0)MACA73-67L0%0.0
1-12Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACH46-44W100%0.0
1-16Miami OH (258.0)MACA63-60L0%0.0
1-19Buffalo (215.0)MACA68-65L0%0.0
1-23Kent St. (131.0)MACH70-55W100%0.0
1-26Toledo (193.0)MACA75-62L0%0.0
1-30Akron (43.0)MACH55-68L0%0.0
2-2Ball St. (233.0)MACH70-59W100%0.0
2-6Northern Illinois (333.0)MACA41-57W100%0.0
2-9Ohio (67.0)MACA72-63L0%0.0
2-13Western Michigan (128.0)MACH70-60W100%0.0
2-16Akron (43.0)MACA67-50L0%0.0
2-21New Orleans (346.0)indH87-56W100%0.0
2-23IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumA88-75L0%0.0
2-27Miami OH (258.0)MACH52-44W100%0.0
3-2Ohio (67.0)MACH65-78L0%0.0
3-5Kent St. (131.0)MACA69-61L0%0.0
3-8Buffalo (215.0)MACH76-65W100%0.0
3-11Miami OH (258.0)MACH52-63L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.2026.2031.3631.36-9.77-9.77
Miami OHMAC5.675.6722.2222.22-3.15-3.15
Kent St.MAC4.174.1760.0060.000.830.83
AkronMAC4.144.1479.3179.312.432.43
BuffaloMAC4.124.1236.6736.67-1.10-1.10
OhioMAC4.094.0970.9770.971.721.72
Eastern MichiganMAC2.412.4143.3343.33-0.32-0.32
Central MichiganMAC2.352.3531.0331.03-0.89-0.89
Ball St.MAC2.352.3550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC2.352.3563.3363.330.630.63
ToledoMAC2.322.3251.8551.850.090.09
Northern IllinoisMAC2.272.2714.2914.29-1.62-1.62
Cleveland St.Horz2.022.0235.7135.71-0.58-0.58
Wright St.Horz2.002.0064.5264.520.580.58
DetroitHorz1.971.9762.0762.070.480.48
Youngstown St.Horz1.961.9646.4346.43-0.14-0.14
IUPU Fort WayneSum1.831.8343.3343.33-0.24-0.24
TempleA101.801.8070.9770.970.750.75
IUPUISum1.751.7510.3410.34-1.39-1.39
Robert MorrisNEC1.751.7568.7568.750.650.65
South FloridaBE1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
SamfordSC1.701.7033.3333.33-0.57-0.57
Michigan St.B101.671.6774.1974.190.810.81
New Orleansind1.671.6719.0519.05-1.03-1.03
North DakotaBSky1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.440.4446.6746.67-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.420.4251.6151.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.380.3878.1278.120.220.22
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.330.3320.0020.00-0.20-0.20
OaklandSum0.270.2746.6746.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.220.2270.9770.970.090.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
MichiganB100.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
Western IllinoisSum0.190.1971.4371.430.080.08
South DakotaSum0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleBE0.160.1685.2985.290.120.12
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.160.1659.2659.260.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
GramblingSWAC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
NebraskaB100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
SyracuseBE0.110.1174.2974.290.050.05
WoffordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.107.147.14-0.09-0.09
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
IndianaB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
CharlotteA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
IowaB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Penn St.B100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.080.0848.0048.00-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0613.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DePaulBE0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CreightonMVC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0453.5753.570.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
North TexasSB0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
TexasB120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Virginia CommonwealthA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00