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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:109.0
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:198
Current SOS:198
Current Record:20-10
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:326



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10109.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Drake (269.0)MVCA58-77W100%0.0
11-19Wright St. (264.0)HorzH70-55W100%0.0
11-25Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH62-54W100%0.0
11-30Detroit (205.0)HorzA63-64W100%0.0
12-3Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA62-52L0%0.0
12-6Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH64-47W100%0.0
12-9Dayton (32.0)A10A56-52L0%0.0
12-13Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH67-57W100%0.0
12-28South Florida (273.0)AmerA70-79W100%0.0
1-3Chicago St. (333.0)WACH58-35W100%0.0
1-7Kent St. (94.0)MACA64-66W100%0.0
1-10Ohio (231.0)MACH69-54W100%0.0
1-14Akron (115.0)MACA67-50L0%0.0
1-17Ball St. (284.0)MACH58-46W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH74-58W100%0.0
1-24Toledo (79.0)MACA71-67L0%0.0
1-27Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH56-46W100%0.0
1-31Akron (115.0)MACH68-69L0%0.0
2-4Central Michigan (70.0)MACA74-76W100%0.0
2-7Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA65-69W100%0.0
2-10Western Michigan (119.0)MACH65-49W100%0.0
2-14Ball St. (284.0)MACA65-79W100%0.0
2-18Miami OH (229.0)MACH56-67L0%0.0
2-21Buffalo (28.0)MACH56-68L0%0.0
2-24Ohio (231.0)MACA65-76W100%0.0
2-28Miami OH (229.0)MACA57-62W100%0.0
3-3Kent St. (94.0)MACH80-81L0%0.0
3-6Buffalo (28.0)MACA77-75L0%0.0
3-9Ball St. (284.0)MACH88-75W100%0.0
3-11Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACN67-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.3726.3766.6766.678.798.79
Ball St.MAC5.715.7123.0823.08-3.07-3.07
AkronMAC4.294.2956.2556.250.540.54
Eastern MichiganMAC4.264.2657.1457.140.610.61
Miami OHMAC4.264.2637.9337.93-1.03-1.03
Kent St.MAC4.204.2065.5265.521.301.30
BuffaloMAC4.174.1770.0070.001.671.67
Northern IllinoisMAC4.154.1548.1548.15-0.15-0.15
OhioMAC4.144.1435.7135.71-1.18-1.18
ToledoMAC2.712.7159.3859.380.510.51
Western MichiganMAC2.702.7060.0060.000.540.54
Central MichiganMAC2.622.6274.0774.071.261.26
DetroitHorz1.861.8643.3343.33-0.25-0.25
Cleveland St.Horz1.831.8355.1755.170.190.19
Wright St.Horz1.831.8332.1432.14-0.65-0.65
DaytonA101.811.8175.0075.000.900.90
Alabama A&MSWAC1.751.7529.6329.63-0.71-0.71
Chicago St.WAC1.721.7217.8617.86-1.11-1.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.701.7040.7440.74-0.31-0.31
Western KentuckyCUSA1.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
DrakeMVC1.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
South FloridaAmer1.691.6926.6726.67-0.79-0.79
Youngstown St.Horz0.330.3327.5927.59-0.15-0.15
ValparaisoHorz0.310.3183.3383.330.210.21
OaklandHorz0.300.3046.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.270.2725.0025.00-0.14-0.14
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
Green BayHorz0.220.2273.3373.330.100.10
LongwoodBSth0.200.2028.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
BelmontOVC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
DePaulBE0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.150.000.00-0.15-0.15
Murray St.OVC0.140.1483.3383.330.100.10
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1218.7518.75-0.07-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01