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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:187.8
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:280
Current Record:10-7
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-996.00.03%
19-10112.80.41%
18-11131.72.35%
17-12147.86.96%
16-13164.515.33%
15-14180.422.68%
14-15195.524.26%
13-16209.417.13%
12-17222.48.36%
11-18234.52.21%
10-19247.40.27%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Drexel (271.0)CAAA69-78W100%0.0
11-13South Dakota (99.3)SumH79-88L0%0.0
11-18Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunH83-80W100%0.0
11-24USC Upstate (335.9)ASunN83-74W100%0.0
11-25Campbell (266.4)BSthA72-78W100%0.0
11-26Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndN88-83L0%0.0
11-29San Jose St. (304.2)MWCH85-79W100%0.0
12-2Norfolk St. (292.1)MEACA77-92W100%0.0
12-5Evansville (159.2)MVCH76-91L0%0.0
12-9Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAA88-46L0%0.0
12-21Green Bay (325.1)HorzA78-81W100%0.0
1-2Miami OH (185.4)MACH72-77L0%0.0
1-6Eastern Michigan (177.1)MACA71-75W100%0.0
1-9Northern Illinois (225.3)MACH66-57W100%0.0
1-13Akron (213.5)MACA80-78L0%0.0
1-16Miami OH (185.4)MACA70-81W100%0.0
1-20Central Michigan (146.9)MACH75-84L0%0.0
1-23Northern Illinois (225.3)MACA0-041%-2.6
1-27Toledo (70.4)MACA0-016%-10.9
1-30Ohio (173.1)MACH0-050%0.1
2-3Kent St. (185.1)MACH0-055%1.3
2-6Ball St. (115.8)MACA0-026%-7.1
2-10Eastern Michigan (177.1)MACH0-051%0.2
2-13Western Michigan (163.8)MACH0-049%-0.1
2-17Buffalo (33.5)MACA0-010%-14.1
2-20Akron (213.5)MACH0-059%2.6
2-24Kent St. (185.1)MACA0-032%-5.1
2-27Ohio (173.1)MACA0-029%-6.3
3-2Buffalo (33.5)MACH0-024%-7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.6026.2958.9550.444.760.23
Kent St.MAC0.444.2544.4444.10-0.05-0.50
Miami OHMAC5.884.2546.6740.77-0.39-0.78
BuffaloMAC0.354.2572.2274.380.152.07
OhioMAC0.284.2247.0647.51-0.02-0.21
AkronMAC3.134.2143.7543.02-0.39-0.59
Northern IllinoisMAC3.204.1943.7539.86-0.40-0.85
Eastern MichiganMAC3.214.1650.0048.760.00-0.10
ToledoMAC0.182.5666.6767.150.060.88
Ball St.MAC0.362.5661.1158.170.080.42
Western MichiganMAC0.262.5652.9452.300.020.12
Central MichiganMAC3.042.5660.0057.160.610.37
USC UpstateASun3.191.8511.7618.69-2.44-1.16
Norfolk St.MEAC3.021.8120.0038.19-1.81-0.43
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.111.7950.0050.820.000.03
CampbellBSth3.111.7950.0049.230.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.021.7961.1168.710.670.67
Green BayHorz3.031.7826.3228.97-1.43-0.75
San Jose St.MWC3.021.7612.5013.29-2.26-1.29
Old DominionCUSA3.031.7577.7875.951.690.91
South DakotaSum3.031.7572.2271.311.350.75
DrexelCAA2.941.7231.5832.06-1.08-0.62
EvansvilleMVC2.941.7250.0045.640.00-0.15
OaklandHorz0.270.2561.9065.160.060.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.2420.0023.34-0.10-0.13
North FloridaASun0.180.2231.5835.15-0.07-0.06
NJITASun0.230.2138.8942.61-0.05-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.250.2168.4269.250.090.08
Indiana St.MVC0.230.2144.4446.02-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.160.2168.4263.650.060.06
LipscombASun0.250.1952.9459.340.010.04
StetsonASun0.320.1933.3336.93-0.11-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.340.1852.6351.690.020.01
DaytonA100.160.1847.3750.94-0.010.00
DenverSum0.320.1633.3336.48-0.11-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1521.0523.51-0.09-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1545.0047.07-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1568.4261.230.040.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.240.1537.5037.68-0.06-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1578.9574.190.100.07
ValparaisoMVC0.000.1547.3748.770.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.260.1327.7831.11-0.12-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.1333.3333.77-0.03-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.1316.6724.91-0.05-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.250.1242.8635.24-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1272.2272.980.000.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.1252.9455.030.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1242.1146.00-0.03-0.01
DrakeMVC0.230.1255.0048.980.02-0.00
DetroitHorz0.070.1221.0525.97-0.04-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1257.1460.410.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.120.0010.67-0.09-0.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.1268.4270.810.030.05
DelawareCAA0.070.1147.3743.02-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1163.1663.220.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1025.0031.45-0.08-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1038.8940.78-0.04-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.170.1052.6358.590.010.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0910.5327.29-0.08-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.150.0930.0032.52-0.06-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.180.0943.7549.13-0.02-0.00
UMKCWAC0.250.0921.0524.75-0.15-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.170.0937.5031.76-0.04-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.160.0945.0048.56-0.02-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0910.0019.63-0.06-0.05
IUPUIHorz0.150.0927.7829.83-0.07-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.0972.2274.710.070.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.099.5217.90-0.07-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.150.0947.3746.09-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.250.0966.6763.200.080.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.0955.0052.470.020.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0970.0068.220.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.0922.2227.33-0.09-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0933.3337.23-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.250.0944.4446.00-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.090.003.07-0.09-0.08
FIUCUSA0.150.0935.2935.54-0.05-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0938.8943.43-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0957.1453.050.010.01
PennIvy0.090.0964.7162.720.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0961.9063.140.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.0925.0028.24-0.08-0.04
TowsonCAA0.150.0963.1665.970.040.03
UABCUSA0.000.0961.1164.130.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.150.0964.7159.990.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0645.0049.29-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.090.0643.7549.23-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.067.6920.090.00-0.04
IndianaB100.100.0657.8950.710.020.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0650.0054.190.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0640.0043.35-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0616.6716.16-0.06-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0625.0028.01-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0627.7827.10-0.04-0.03
RadfordBSth0.090.0657.8958.850.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.0635.0026.12-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0680.0078.850.050.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.067.6923.280.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.090.0650.0059.450.000.01
DukeACC0.150.0689.4785.210.120.04
Saint LouisA100.090.0647.3746.92-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0650.0052.460.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0645.0041.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0041.730.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0685.7182.090.060.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.210.020.03
San DiegoWCC0.180.0663.1657.540.050.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0658.8262.820.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0627.7834.500.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0627.7831.71-0.04-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.180.0637.5033.78-0.04-0.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0673.6865.260.040.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0645.0045.49-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0661.1156.830.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0641.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0666.6763.420.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.0643.7554.11-0.020.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0615.7920.91-0.05-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.090.0636.8445.21-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0610.5316.750.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.150.0665.0057.880.050.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.240.000.03
DavidsonA100.090.0658.8261.450.020.01
DePaulBE0.170.0642.1134.31-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.170.0631.5829.06-0.06-0.02
HartfordAE0.170.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0064.110.000.02
IowaB100.090.0647.6244.02-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0661.1147.220.02-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.0640.0042.52-0.03-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0650.0050.860.000.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0668.4260.550.030.01
MarylandB100.000.0670.0065.250.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0670.0068.300.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0642.1144.960.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0644.4450.080.000.00
Ohio St.B100.170.0680.9576.520.110.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.480.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0652.9460.220.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0661.1151.910.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0626.3231.50-0.04-0.02
TulaneAmer0.170.0663.1657.890.050.01
USCP120.090.0671.4368.280.040.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0652.6355.290.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0671.4370.240.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0623.5325.64-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0689.4785.550.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.640.020.02
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.490.010.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0657.8950.840.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6768.730.000.02
TempleAmer0.150.0652.6351.740.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0668.4263.960.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0685.7180.080.000.03
CreightonBE0.080.0375.0070.700.040.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0338.8946.05-0.02-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0366.6755.940.030.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.035.8819.35-0.08-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0373.6862.720.040.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.890.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0328.5731.26-0.04-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0363.6457.630.020.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.380.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0311.1115.29-0.06-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0358.8257.140.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
Penn St.B100.090.0361.9055.760.020.00
TCUB120.080.0373.6865.600.040.01
Texas St.SB0.090.0357.8950.210.010.00
Texas TechB120.090.0378.9571.810.050.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0318.7518.36-0.05-0.02
UCLAP120.080.0365.0062.050.020.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0389.4777.000.070.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.660.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0378.9576.990.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0323.5328.21-0.05-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0329.4133.20-0.04-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.090.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0370.0071.230.040.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.090.0322.2225.25-0.05-0.02
MichiganB100.090.0376.1970.740.050.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.920.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.630.00-0.01
NavyPat0.080.0360.0055.160.020.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0355.5656.740.010.00
PortlandWCC0.090.0327.7827.28-0.04-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0383.3381.430.050.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0390.4888.960.070.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0333.3332.94-0.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0333.3335.21-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0357.8953.190.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0360.0062.030.020.01
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0378.9577.380.040.02
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.300.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0364.7166.850.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.0053.320.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0361.9068.020.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3333.230.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
KansasB120.000.0384.2179.750.000.02
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0322.2227.47-0.04-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.080.0344.4446.65-0.01-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.020.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.910.000.01
OregonP120.000.0365.0063.850.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.83-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0311.1117.68-0.06-0.02
RichmondA100.080.0331.5834.36-0.03-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.320.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0321.0544.260.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
VCUA100.080.0360.0059.700.020.01