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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Bowling Green

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:200.0
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:175
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:7-14
Expected Conf Record:7-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18200.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14New Orleans (343.0)SlndH79-61W100%0.0
11-18Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH50-83L0%0.0
11-21North Dakota (218.0)BSkyN59-77L0%0.0
11-22Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzN72-79W100%0.0
11-23Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA77-82W100%0.0
12-2UMBC (335.0)AEH72-64W100%0.0
12-5Drake (325.0)MVCH75-63W100%0.0
12-8Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA52-79W100%0.0
12-12Detroit (204.0)HorzA95-80L0%0.0
12-20Wright St. (146.0)HorzA83-47L0%0.0
12-23Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA47-62W100%0.0
1-6Miami OH (195.0)MACH73-62W100%0.0
1-9Central Michigan (156.0)MACH67-79L0%0.0
1-12Ohio (81.0)MACA75-91W100%0.0
1-16Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA79-84W100%0.0
1-19Toledo (182.0)MACH74-81L0%0.0
1-23Kent St. (124.0)MACH59-62L0%0.0
1-26Western Michigan (202.0)MACA78-79W100%0.0
1-30Central Michigan (156.0)MACA77-65L0%0.0
2-2Ball St. (179.0)MACH64-72L0%0.0
2-6Miami OH (195.0)MACA55-51L0%0.0
2-9Akron (34.0)MACH68-83L0%0.0
2-13Western Michigan (202.0)MACH68-74L0%0.0
2-16Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA71-60L0%0.0
2-20Buffalo (90.0)MACA88-74L0%0.0
2-23Ohio (81.0)MACH87-82W100%0.0
2-26Akron (34.0)MACA89-54L0%0.0
3-1Kent St. (124.0)MACA70-54L0%0.0
3-4Buffalo (90.0)MACH83-87L0%0.0
3-7Kent St. (124.0)MACA69-70W100%0.0
3-10Central Michigan (156.0)MACN59-62W100%0.0
3-11Akron (34.0)MACN80-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bowling GreenMAC26.4726.4745.1245.12-2.58-2.58
AkronMAC5.585.5873.3373.332.602.60
Kent St.MAC5.495.4957.1457.140.780.78
Central MichiganMAC5.365.3646.1546.15-0.41-0.41
BuffaloMAC4.084.0854.8454.840.390.39
OhioMAC4.034.0368.9768.971.531.53
Miami OHMAC4.004.0036.6736.67-1.07-1.07
Western MichiganMAC3.893.8935.7135.71-1.11-1.11
Northern IllinoisMAC2.522.5257.1457.140.360.36
Eastern MichiganMAC2.522.5250.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC2.482.4850.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC2.462.4656.6756.670.330.33
Cleveland St.Horz1.941.9424.1424.14-1.00-1.00
Youngstown St.Horz1.901.9031.0331.03-0.72-0.72
Wright St.Horz1.821.8259.3859.380.340.34
DetroitHorz1.821.8246.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.671.6757.1457.140.240.24
North DakotaBSky1.621.6246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
New OrleansSlnd1.591.5926.9226.92-0.73-0.73
CincinnatiAmer1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
DrakeMVC1.561.5620.6920.69-0.92-0.92
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.561.5611.5411.54-1.20-1.20
UMBCAE1.561.5622.5822.58-0.86-0.86
Green BayHorz0.350.3563.6463.640.100.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.290.2958.0658.060.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.2810.7110.71-0.22-0.22
OaklandHorz0.280.2865.6265.620.090.09
Northern KentuckyHorz0.260.2625.0025.00-0.13-0.13
ValparaisoHorz0.230.2380.0080.000.140.14
Weber St.BSky0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
LipscombASun0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
NJITASun0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1426.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
VermontAE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
UCFAmer0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
BYUWCC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01