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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:99.0
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:22
Current SOS:22
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1799.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH63-66L0%0.0
11-16Belmont (98.0)OVCH83-74W100%0.0
11-18Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH91-53W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCN79-76W100%0.0
11-24Marquette (110.0)BEN73-78L0%0.0
11-29UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH70-68W100%0.0
12-2Creighton (100.0)BEA77-79W100%0.0
12-5Texas A&M (18.0)SECH67-54W100%0.0
12-12Kentucky (11.0)SECA72-58L0%0.0
12-16UNLV (147.0)MWCA56-66W100%0.0
12-19Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH98-79W100%0.0
12-22Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH80-73W100%0.0
12-28Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH75-59W100%0.0
1-3Arizona (26.0)P12H82-94L0%0.0
1-7USC (51.0)P12A75-65L0%0.0
1-9UCLA (102.0)P12A81-74L0%0.0
1-14Washington St. (212.0)P12H84-73W100%0.0
1-16Washington (83.0)P12H85-89L0%0.0
1-21California (16.0)P12A75-70L0%0.0
1-23Stanford (86.0)P12A75-73L0%0.0
1-28Oregon St. (33.0)P12H86-68W100%0.0
1-31Oregon (2.0)P12H74-91L0%0.0
2-3Washington (83.0)P12A95-83L0%0.0
2-6Washington St. (212.0)P12A55-67W100%0.0
2-12USC (51.0)P12H74-67W100%0.0
2-14UCLA (102.0)P12H65-78L0%0.0
2-17Arizona (26.0)P12A99-61L0%0.0
2-25Utah (8.0)P12A81-46L0%0.0
2-28Colorado (35.0)P12A79-69L0%0.0
3-3Stanford (86.0)P12H74-64W100%0.0
3-5California (16.0)P12H65-68L0%0.0
3-9Oregon St. (33.0)P12N75-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1226.2026.2042.7542.75-3.80-3.80
ArizonaP123.923.9274.1974.191.901.90
USCP123.923.9264.5264.521.141.14
UCLAP123.913.9143.3343.33-0.52-0.52
WashingtonP123.893.8953.3353.330.260.26
Oregon St.P123.883.8860.7160.710.830.83
CaliforniaP123.873.8767.7467.741.371.37
StanfordP123.833.8348.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Washington St.P123.813.8128.5728.57-1.63-1.63
OregonP122.452.4581.2581.251.531.53
UtahP122.432.4375.0075.001.211.21
ColoradoP122.412.4164.5264.520.700.70
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.761.7658.6258.620.300.30
UNLVMWC1.681.6853.3353.330.110.11
KentuckySEC1.661.6675.7675.760.850.85
Houston BaptistSlnd1.651.6546.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.641.6485.1985.191.161.16
MarquetteBE1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
Sacramento St.BSky1.621.6239.2939.29-0.35-0.35
BelmontOVC1.611.6165.5265.520.500.50
CreightonBE1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Texas A&MSEC1.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
Kennesaw St.ASun1.591.5932.1432.14-0.57-0.57
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.561.5675.0075.000.780.78
North Carolina St.ACC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
IdahoBSky0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.200.2028.5728.57-0.08-0.08
LSUSEC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.180.1856.0056.000.020.02
TexasB120.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
XavierBE0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1676.6776.670.090.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1528.5728.57-0.07-0.07
DePaulBE0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
New MexicoMWC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
ProvidenceBE0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
MissouriSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.1320.8320.83-0.08-0.08
MontanaBSky0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1383.8783.870.090.09
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
RiceCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
ArkansasSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Seton HallBE0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
St. John'sBE0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Wake ForestACC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
LamarSlnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.10-0.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
PacificWCC0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0229.1729.17-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00