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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:90.0
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:108
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:120
Expected OOC SOS:299



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1290.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Central Arkansas (286.0)SlndH79-64W100%0.0
11-18Florida A&M (331.0)MEACH97-70W100%0.0
11-20Cornell (248.0)IvyH64-53W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas (89.0)SECN83-68W100%0.0
11-24Creighton (25.0)MVCN87-73L0%0.0
11-28Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)SWACH67-54W100%0.0
12-1Sacramento St. (283.0)BSkyH90-70W100%0.0
12-5Hartford (187.0)AEH71-63W100%0.0
12-8Cal St. Northridge (254.0)BWH87-76W100%0.0
12-12DePaul (204.0)BEH61-78L0%0.0
12-15Dartmouth (294.0)IvyH61-42W100%0.0
12-22Texas Tech (214.0)B12A62-77W100%0.0
12-29Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH68-52W100%0.0
1-2Utah (161.0)P12H55-54W100%0.0
1-6Colorado (38.0)P12H65-56W100%0.0
1-10Oregon St. (181.0)P12A62-72W100%0.0
1-13Oregon (48.0)P12A68-65L0%0.0
1-19Arizona (16.0)P12H54-71L0%0.0
1-24Southern California (118.0)P12H98-93W100%0.0
1-26UCLA (26.0)P12H78-60W100%0.0
1-31Washington St. (196.0)P12A59-63W100%0.0
2-2Washington (88.0)P12A96-92L0%0.0
2-7California (54.0)P12H66-62W100%0.0
2-9Stanford (77.0)P12H59-62L0%0.0
2-13Utah (161.0)P12A60-55L0%0.0
2-16Colorado (38.0)P12A62-63W100%0.0
2-20Washington St. (196.0)P12H69-57W100%0.0
2-23Washington (88.0)P12H59-68L0%0.0
2-27UCLA (26.0)P12A79-74L0%0.0
3-2Southern California (118.0)P12A57-56L0%0.0
3-9Arizona (16.0)P12A73-58L0%0.0
3-13Stanford (77.0)P12N88-89W100%0.0
3-14UCLA (26.0)P12N80-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1226.2626.2659.7159.715.105.10
UCLAP125.305.3074.1974.192.572.57
ArizonaP123.893.8976.6776.672.082.08
UtahP123.813.8141.3841.38-0.66-0.66
Southern CaliforniaP123.803.8043.3343.33-0.51-0.51
WashingtonP123.783.7851.6151.610.120.12
Washington St.P123.783.7843.3343.33-0.50-0.50
ColoradoP123.763.7670.0070.001.501.50
StanfordP123.733.7356.6756.670.500.50
OregonP122.432.4375.7675.761.251.25
CaliforniaP122.332.3366.6766.670.780.78
Oregon St.P122.292.2945.1645.16-0.22-0.22
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.631.6342.8642.86-0.23-0.23
Sacramento St.BSky1.591.5946.1546.15-0.12-0.12
Texas TechB121.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.581.5855.1755.170.160.16
CornellIvy1.571.5741.3841.38-0.27-0.27
DartmouthIvy1.571.5730.7730.77-0.60-0.60
Florida A&MMEAC1.561.5621.4321.43-0.89-0.89
Coppin St.MEAC1.561.5623.3323.33-0.83-0.83
HartfordAE1.561.5658.6258.620.270.27
Central ArkansasSlnd1.541.5440.7440.74-0.29-0.29
ArkansasSEC1.541.5461.2961.290.350.35
CreightonMVC1.541.5478.7978.790.890.89
DePaulBE1.521.5232.2632.26-0.54-0.54
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
KansasB120.190.1985.2985.290.140.14
TexasB120.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
Idaho St.BSky0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
YaleIvy0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.107.147.14-0.09-0.09
HowardMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
GramblingSWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
PepperdineWCC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
MinnesotaB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
ConnecticutBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
SeattleWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
ColgatePat0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
PacificBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Boston UniversityAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DenverWAC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
BradleyMVC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
IowaB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
North TexasSB0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00