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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:79.4
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:24
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:26
Expected OOC SOS:29



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1129.90.09%
19-1244.41.77%
18-1355.89.48%
17-1467.023.28%
16-1578.931.03%
15-1691.823.79%
14-17106.09.11%
13-18120.91.44%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Sacramento St. (249.9)BSkyH63-66L0%0.0
11-16Belmont (84.1)OVCH83-74W100%0.0
11-18Kennesaw St. (293.4)ASunH91-53W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina St. (116.4)ACCN79-76W100%0.0
11-24Marquette (123.6)BEN73-78L0%0.0
11-29UC Santa Barbara (122.4)BWH70-68W100%0.0
12-2Creighton (89.7)BEA77-79W100%0.0
12-5Texas A&M (21.8)SECH67-54W100%0.0
12-12Kentucky (19.9)SECA72-58L0%0.0
12-16UNLV (120.5)MWCA56-66W100%0.0
12-19Houston Baptist (204.8)SlndH98-79W100%0.0
12-22Stephen F. Austin (97.2)SlndH80-73W100%0.0
12-28Cal St. Bakersfield (142.6)WACH75-59W100%0.0
1-3Arizona (26.1)P12H82-94L0%0.0
1-7USC (20.7)P12A75-65L0%0.0
1-9UCLA (70.5)P12A81-74L0%0.0
1-14Washington St. (183.8)P12H84-73W100%0.0
1-16Washington (62.3)P12H85-89L0%0.0
1-21California (43.3)P12A75-70L0%0.0
1-23Stanford (85.9)P12A75-73L0%0.0
1-28Oregon St. (58.0)P12H86-68W100%0.0
1-31Oregon (5.2)P12H74-91L0%0.0
2-3Washington (62.3)P12A95-83L0%0.0
2-6Washington St. (183.8)P12A55-67W100%0.0
2-12USC (20.7)P12H0-045%-1.4
2-14UCLA (70.5)P12H0-060%2.9
2-17Arizona (26.1)P12A0-015%-11.5
2-25Utah (30.0)P12A0-028%-6.4
2-28Colorado (44.5)P12A0-033%-4.8
3-3Stanford (85.9)P12H0-070%5.6
3-5California (43.3)P12H0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1226.3226.2250.9648.180.51-0.95
ArizonaP122.784.0178.2677.361.572.19
UCLAP122.783.9854.5552.100.250.17
USCP122.733.9677.2772.741.491.80
WashingtonP124.583.9561.9058.311.090.66
Washington St.P124.533.9240.0034.35-0.91-1.23
CaliforniaP122.383.9163.6462.020.650.94
StanfordP122.373.9047.3745.19-0.12-0.37
OregonP122.412.3981.8278.511.531.37
Oregon St.P122.412.3965.0058.510.720.41
ColoradoP120.572.3769.5765.300.220.73
UtahP120.572.3769.5767.330.220.82
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.311.8045.0052.26-0.230.08
UNLVMWC2.221.7452.3857.170.110.25
MarquetteBE2.131.6960.8754.740.460.16
KentuckySEC2.131.6972.7370.610.970.70
Houston BaptistSlnd2.141.6752.6351.680.110.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.141.6776.4778.601.130.96
Sacramento St.BSky2.141.6738.8943.61-0.47-0.21
BelmontOVC2.171.6769.5768.920.850.63
CreightonBE2.081.6665.2261.790.630.39
Kennesaw St.ASun2.131.6422.7324.26-1.16-0.84
Texas A&MSEC2.081.6481.8280.651.331.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.081.6170.0070.400.830.66
North Carolina St.ACC2.081.6152.1750.720.090.02
GonzagaWCC0.320.2478.2676.800.180.13
IdahoBSky0.290.2354.5554.950.030.02
SeattleWAC0.290.2347.6245.00-0.01-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.230.2230.0034.56-0.09-0.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.2052.9452.160.010.01
TexasB120.280.1966.6762.220.090.05
Long Beach St.BW0.230.1945.4551.34-0.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.180.1963.6462.530.050.05
LSUSEC0.220.1865.2260.250.070.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1745.0049.42-0.02-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.1710.0013.14-0.15-0.12
Fresno St.MWC0.230.1761.9059.630.060.03
New MexicoMWC0.230.1660.8763.000.050.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1628.5728.54-0.06-0.07
DePaulBE0.180.1634.7834.54-0.06-0.05
VillanovaBE0.180.1686.9686.360.130.12
MissouriSEC0.180.1634.7830.38-0.05-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1679.1780.720.080.10
ProvidenceBE0.130.1675.0070.940.070.07
XavierBE0.130.1691.3084.340.110.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1576.1972.290.080.07
Portland St.BSky0.250.1531.5837.72-0.09-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.150.1545.8341.65-0.01-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1417.6526.67-0.10-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.150.1445.0046.12-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1485.7185.390.100.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1435.0032.27-0.06-0.05
WyomingMWC0.140.1443.4842.49-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.190.1452.1755.940.010.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.1372.7372.060.040.06
AlabamaSEC0.140.1359.0953.040.020.01
LamarSlnd0.110.1230.0029.25-0.04-0.05
UC DavisBW0.110.1240.0036.76-0.02-0.03
MontanaBSky0.200.1157.8962.300.030.03
LipscombASun0.130.1125.0029.27-0.07-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1117.6529.21-0.10-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.1145.4554.11-0.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1181.8283.040.120.07
RiceCUSA0.150.1128.5729.68-0.06-0.04
IUPUISum0.180.1140.0039.79-0.04-0.02
KansasB120.140.1181.8277.600.090.06
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1172.7376.360.040.06
DukeACC0.130.1075.0071.700.070.05
ButlerBE0.090.1069.5767.170.030.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.1056.0052.770.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.1082.6178.660.060.06
Seton HallBE0.170.1073.9169.840.080.04
St. John'sBE0.130.1025.0023.34-0.07-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1056.5260.010.010.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.1043.4840.57-0.01-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0965.2268.620.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.0935.0034.72-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.150.0941.6741.24-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.100.0931.5831.76-0.04-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.140.094.357.73-0.13-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0918.1821.06-0.03-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.0915.0026.98-0.11-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.150.0954.1755.070.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0815.0015.35-0.03-0.06
SMUAmer0.050.0890.9186.160.040.06
UC IrvineBW0.140.0872.7371.620.070.04
NevadaMWC0.100.0855.0054.530.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0866.6762.630.030.02
BaylorB120.150.0872.7366.460.070.03
TCUB120.140.0845.8339.31-0.01-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0847.6252.07-0.000.00
NJITASun0.140.0854.1755.240.010.01
StetsonASun0.090.0823.8127.69-0.05-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.140.0822.7323.24-0.07-0.04
IndianaB100.140.0879.1774.020.080.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0845.4538.46-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0852.3850.420.000.00
PacificWCC0.100.0825.0028.89-0.05-0.03
OklahomaB120.140.0886.9682.610.100.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0852.0050.240.000.00
BYUWCC0.040.0866.6769.510.010.03
LouisvilleACC0.130.0879.1776.080.080.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0817.3920.66-0.06-0.05
AuburnSEC0.050.0840.9136.60-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0814.2920.64-0.06-0.05
FloridaSEC0.090.0865.2266.070.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0840.9140.65-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0847.8346.89-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0882.6178.070.030.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0682.6181.140.030.04
UMKCWAC0.100.0628.5732.70-0.04-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.45-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0621.0527.79-0.06-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0627.7834.19-0.05-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.010.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.110.0640.9143.71-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0665.0069.270.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0677.2776.870.060.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.57-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.000.000.01
HawaiiBW0.100.0684.2181.700.070.04
IonaMAAC0.100.0660.8760.760.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0665.2267.160.010.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0628.5726.96-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0640.0038.51-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0654.1750.940.010.00
MichiganB100.100.0669.5766.240.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0656.5256.320.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0625.0024.35-0.02-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0650.0052.350.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0668.1866.690.020.02
Texas St.SB0.090.0638.8938.50-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0652.1751.940.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0525.0022.75-0.02-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0533.3334.19-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0534.7840.93-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0540.0045.50-0.02-0.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0568.0067.980.030.02
PennIvy0.090.0538.8937.62-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0538.1037.70-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0573.9170.050.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0550.0054.210.000.00
Miami FLACC0.040.0581.8276.750.030.03
BradleyMVC0.040.0512.5012.85-0.03-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0560.0057.950.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0543.4842.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0569.5764.850.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0561.9056.690.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0521.7422.99-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0557.8961.750.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0565.2259.020.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.5257.280.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0554.5554.490.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0531.8229.13-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0530.4331.18-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0586.3679.140.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0520.0019.67-0.05-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.580.020.01
YaleIvy0.050.0573.6874.680.020.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0326.0929.19-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0333.3332.31-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0382.6179.410.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0333.3335.47-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0347.3749.98-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.030.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.690.030.02
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.090.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0336.3636.08-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.100.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.430.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0382.6179.560.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0337.5040.54-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.73-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0340.9143.53-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0375.0076.230.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0371.4369.420.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0345.4549.70-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.12-0.04-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0313.6415.79-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.78-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.27-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.039.0912.25-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0359.0961.320.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0370.8368.570.000.01
NavyPat0.050.0362.5062.390.010.01
Penn St.B100.000.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6459.840.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0359.0953.170.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0376.0076.300.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.54-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.570.000.00
BucknellPat0.040.0354.5558.170.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0358.3358.410.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0352.1751.630.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.08-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.040.0355.0057.480.000.00
IowaB100.040.0382.6180.590.030.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.370.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.040.0333.3333.12-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0340.9139.35-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0354.1751.850.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0333.3333.02-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0370.8367.730.000.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.120.010.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0376.1968.210.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0325.0026.86-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.35-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.170.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0313.6413.62-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0354.1749.230.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0327.7829.14-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0371.4369.860.020.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0365.0063.440.010.01
WisconsinB100.040.0360.8755.840.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00