live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:125.5
Current RPI:199
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:190
Current Record:6-5
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-719.00.01%
23-823.00.03%
22-928.20.04%
21-1040.20.27%
20-1149.01.14%
19-1262.42.85%
18-1376.56.77%
17-1491.912.26%
16-15108.517.08%
15-16125.519.91%
14-17142.517.09%
13-18159.711.99%
12-19177.36.69%
11-20195.12.78%
10-21209.90.90%
9-22226.90.17%
8-23249.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Chicago St. (340.9)WACH86-50W100%0.0
11-17Bethune Cookman (338.6)MEACH49-39W100%0.0
11-20Loyola Marymount (260.2)WCCH68-44W100%0.0
11-24Maryland (48.8)B10N78-73L0%0.0
11-25Alabama (90.0)SECN76-71L0%0.0
11-29Colgate (186.4)PatH78-71W100%0.0
12-3UNLV (142.3)MWCH77-55W100%0.0
12-6Texas A&M (71.4)SECA72-71L0%0.0
12-13Pepperdine (156.2)WCCH81-74W100%0.0
12-16Marquette (100.7)BEA78-71L0%0.0
12-20Lehigh (147.2)PatH81-84L0%0.0
12-23Detroit (167.5)HorzH0-077%8.5
12-28Harvard (53.8)IvyH0-056%1.9
1-4Arizona (14.7)P12A0-013%-13.1
1-8Oregon St. (128.3)P12A0-038%-3.6
1-10Oregon (106.6)P12A0-034%-4.7
1-15Utah (12.1)P12H0-026%-7.4
1-17Colorado (68.9)P12H0-057%1.9
1-22California (48.0)P12A0-027%-7.3
1-24Stanford (70.3)P12A0-029%-6.4
1-28Oregon St. (128.3)P12H0-066%4.8
1-30Oregon (106.6)P12H0-062%3.6
2-7Arizona (14.7)P12H0-034%-4.7
2-13Washington St. (211.9)P12A0-067%5.2
2-15Washington (30.0)P12A0-022%-8.9
2-18UCLA (80.6)P12H0-062%3.5
2-22USC (188.5)P12H0-084%11.7
2-26Utah (12.1)P12A0-09%-15.7
3-1Colorado (68.9)P12A0-029%-6.4
3-5Stanford (70.3)P12H0-057%1.9
3-7California (48.0)P12H0-054%1.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1227.6226.2343.9042.84-3.37-3.76
ArizonaP120.004.02100.0083.070.002.66
StanfordP120.543.9366.6758.410.180.66
OregonP120.003.9070.0057.850.000.61
UtahP120.253.9080.0080.390.152.37
CaliforniaP120.003.8790.9169.650.001.52
Oregon St.P120.003.8777.7856.830.000.53
ColoradoP120.003.8766.6758.060.000.62
USCP120.282.4660.0037.120.06-0.63
UCLAP120.002.4666.6755.020.000.25
WashingtonP120.002.43100.0075.370.001.23
Washington St.P120.002.4340.0027.97-0.00-1.07
UNLVMWC4.551.7775.0051.262.270.04
Loyola MarymountWCC4.551.7528.5724.30-1.95-0.90
AlabamaSEC4.551.6962.5052.541.140.09
PepperdineWCC4.551.6775.0057.742.270.26
ColgatePat4.551.6722.2244.06-2.53-0.20
DetroitHorz0.001.6740.0048.90-0.00-0.04
LehighPat4.551.6737.5052.35-1.140.08
Texas A&MSEC4.551.6766.6759.991.520.33
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.551.6120.0031.86-2.73-0.59
Chicago St.WAC4.551.610.0012.02-4.55-1.23
HarvardIvy0.001.6185.7174.070.000.78
MarquetteBE4.551.6155.5647.220.51-0.09
MarylandB104.551.6190.0067.173.640.55
DePaulBE0.480.2860.0034.160.10-0.09
BYUWCC0.000.2370.0068.340.000.08
GonzagaWCC0.000.2290.9190.540.000.18
AuburnSEC0.000.2250.0039.790.00-0.05
PortlandWCC0.250.2070.0051.040.100.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1972.7372.580.000.09
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1750.0054.170.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1680.0073.540.000.08
OaklandHorz0.230.1627.2732.45-0.10-0.06
MichiganB100.000.1650.0040.450.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.1455.5638.270.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1444.4436.80-0.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.1454.5557.570.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1430.0041.69-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.1457.1453.770.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.250.1487.5085.480.190.10
ArmyPat0.000.1477.7868.780.000.05
San Jose St.MWC0.250.140.008.00-0.25-0.11
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1437.5063.95-0.000.04
UC IrvineBW0.280.1437.5046.38-0.07-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.1318.1822.49-0.16-0.07
MissouriSEC0.000.1340.0032.26-0.00-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.250.1266.6767.930.080.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1262.5058.080.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.1236.3645.11-0.06-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1133.3341.02-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1133.3340.63-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.280.1150.0043.310.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1150.0055.890.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.1163.6463.240.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.1140.0036.66-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1162.5059.050.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.1166.6767.650.000.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3328.13-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.1120.0022.16-0.00-0.06
ToledoMAC0.230.1163.6461.520.060.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1116.6733.39-0.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1130.0038.57-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1144.4437.40-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.250.1127.2729.17-0.11-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1170.0052.600.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.230.1172.7362.220.100.03
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0096.290.000.10
NevadaMWC0.000.1111.1125.48-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.1190.9179.980.000.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.1160.0071.280.000.05
WisconsinB100.230.1090.9188.840.190.08
CornellIvy0.230.0955.5648.710.03-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.08100.0078.210.000.05
DrexelCAA0.000.0822.2235.90-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0833.3343.83-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0875.0077.010.000.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.0844.4450.60-0.030.00
Boise St.MWC0.280.0877.7872.890.160.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0825.0037.03-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0840.0044.08-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.230.0875.0052.140.110.00
VillanovaBE0.250.08100.0082.970.250.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.009.06-0.00-0.07
KansasB120.000.0890.0070.680.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0825.0033.40-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0816.6726.98-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.0827.2735.36-0.09-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.0845.4543.23-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.0836.3637.85-0.07-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.0850.0071.260.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0888.8963.020.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.00-0.00-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0836.3646.72-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0863.6465.220.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0880.0063.910.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0850.0042.090.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0866.6766.010.000.03
South DakotaSum0.250.0827.2738.30-0.11-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.230.0855.5646.290.03-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0854.5548.260.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0866.6758.210.000.01
XavierBE0.250.0872.7367.590.110.03
IllinoisB100.000.0875.0065.140.000.02
Ohio St.B100.450.0881.8282.250.290.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0860.0076.250.000.04
Kansas St.B120.230.0863.6440.190.06-0.02
Michigan St.B100.230.0866.6767.300.080.03
Penn St.B100.000.0891.6755.310.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0860.0058.120.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.80-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0046.690.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.63-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6761.820.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0670.0060.920.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6742.600.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0622.2238.44-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3361.74-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0637.5056.46-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.84-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.210.06100.0086.080.210.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
HowardMEAC0.250.0630.0043.74-0.10-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.250.060.0031.89-0.25-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.230.0644.4455.37-0.030.01
Western CarolinaSC0.480.0620.0040.93-0.29-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.72-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0011.94-0.00-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.61-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0031.48-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.069.0917.12-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0670.0059.660.000.01
UCFAmer0.210.0655.5635.900.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8273.180.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
IowaB100.250.0566.6759.420.080.01
MercerSC0.210.0544.4444.02-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0516.6735.27-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.210.0550.0057.820.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.250.0540.0041.32-0.05-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.430.0566.6764.770.140.02
TowsonCAA0.460.0560.0047.170.09-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.410.0520.0027.29-0.25-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.410.0550.0058.370.000.01
AlbanyAE0.480.0540.0055.01-0.100.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0580.0072.200.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0518.1837.71-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0572.7367.960.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0550.0058.070.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.050.008.56-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0545.4555.13-0.000.01
DukeACC0.000.05100.0087.090.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0570.0059.220.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0575.0057.390.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.480.0555.5673.740.050.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.380.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0588.8965.170.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.0544.4449.14-0.03-0.00
VCUA100.000.0572.7375.740.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7875.550.000.03
Iowa St.B120.460.0590.0065.480.370.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0536.3650.71-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0570.0062.710.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0027.67-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0537.5041.94-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.31-0.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0581.8263.330.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0533.3328.79-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0525.0052.35-0.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0533.3341.20-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6744.720.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0554.5532.590.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5745.89-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8649.02-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0362.5041.790.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.0336.3648.28-0.08-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0340.0046.19-0.06-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.250.0355.5662.150.030.01
Georgia St.SB0.230.0362.5072.070.060.01
IUPUISum0.000.0327.2728.86-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.250.0333.3345.04-0.08-0.00
Notre DameACC0.230.0391.6777.120.190.02
RichmondA100.250.0360.0057.700.050.00
RiderMAAC0.250.0350.0053.250.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0312.5026.89-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.0354.5544.930.02-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.250.0355.5665.210.030.01
UMBCAE0.000.0318.1825.30-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.0350.0051.710.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4549.62-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.210.0310.0018.05-0.17-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.560.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.17-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0314.2932.16-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.030.0028.43-0.23-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.64-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.230.0390.0073.240.180.01
BinghamtonAE0.230.030.0011.24-0.23-0.02
CampbellBSth0.230.0325.0043.93-0.11-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.230.0345.4545.10-0.02-0.00
DaytonA100.230.0380.0069.770.140.01
Georgia TechACC0.230.0380.0053.260.140.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.620.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0311.1128.88-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.230.0363.6455.660.060.00
La SalleA100.230.0354.5552.730.020.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0333.3337.22-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0316.6737.21-0.17-0.01
New HampshireAE0.230.0350.0060.410.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.230.0320.0046.47-0.14-0.00
NJITind0.230.0341.6743.68-0.04-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.230.0316.6740.27-0.15-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.0355.5660.980.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.250.0342.8626.99-0.04-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0314.2929.82-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.24-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0067.700.000.01
TempleAmer0.250.0363.6456.430.070.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0387.5068.000.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5035.74-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0357.1470.520.000.01
FordhamA100.210.0328.5727.11-0.09-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0320.0026.07-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.97-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.850.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0363.6442.810.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0366.6759.370.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0036.69-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.210.0363.6467.210.060.01
VMISC0.210.0333.3338.93-0.07-0.01
WagnerNEC0.210.0312.5030.56-0.15-0.01
WinthropBSth0.210.0325.0044.27-0.10-0.00