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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:165.8
Current RPI:159
Expected SOS:37
Current SOS:171
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:58



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1261.50.04%
18-1364.80.14%
17-1475.70.38%
16-1590.81.30%
15-16105.23.32%
14-17120.47.44%
13-18135.413.00%
12-19152.117.16%
11-20168.620.45%
10-21185.717.04%
9-22203.011.37%
8-23219.05.67%
7-24234.51.96%
6-25247.30.58%
5-26268.70.12%
4-27273.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Portland St. (293.2)BSkyH88-70W100%0.0
11-13Cal Poly (281.6)BWH96-74W100%0.0
11-17Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCN63-82L0%0.0
11-18Tulane (269.7)AmerN71-80W100%0.0
11-20Davidson (48.3)A10N60-68L0%0.0
11-23The Citadel (312.2)SCH127-110W100%0.0
11-28Kentucky (7.3)SECN69-115L0%0.0
12-3UNLV (163.6)MWCH0-057%2.1
12-6Purdue (28.6)B10N0-08%-16.7
12-10San Diego St. (47.5)MWCA0-015%-12.4
12-17New Mexico St. (126.1)WACH0-057%2.0
12-20Creighton (25.4)BEH0-015%-12.3
12-22Central Arkansas (282.4)SlndH0-087%13.6
12-30Stanford (54.1)P12A0-017%-11.6
1-1California (68.2)P12A0-016%-11.8
1-5Colorado (84.8)P12H0-033%-5.4
1-7Utah (80.8)P12H0-032%-5.5
1-12Arizona (28.2)P12A0-010%-15.6
1-19UCLA (19.0)P12A0-04%-20.4
1-22USC (44.4)P12A0-011%-14.4
1-25Washington (105.3)P12H0-038%-3.8
1-29Washington St. (196.7)P12H0-063%4.1
2-2Oregon (50.4)P12A0-012%-13.9
2-4Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-056%1.8
2-8California (68.2)P12H0-032%-5.7
2-11Stanford (54.1)P12H0-032%-5.5
2-16Washington (105.3)P12A0-020%-9.9
2-18Washington St. (196.7)P12A0-043%-2.1
2-23UCLA (19.0)P12H0-012%-14.2
2-26USC (44.4)P12H0-025%-8.2
3-4Arizona (28.2)P12H0-022%-9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1229.5326.2348.2830.69-1.02-10.13
ArizonaP120.003.9985.7170.060.001.60
WashingtonP120.003.9657.1451.320.000.10
UCLAP120.003.96100.0082.980.002.61
Washington St.P120.003.9550.0036.090.00-1.10
CaliforniaP120.003.9483.3362.730.001.00
USCP120.003.93100.0074.910.001.96
StanfordP120.003.8875.0057.890.000.61
OregonP120.002.4071.4366.010.000.77
ColoradoP120.002.3871.4359.590.000.46
Oregon St.P120.002.3728.5723.05-0.00-1.28
UtahP120.002.3775.0060.770.000.51
Cal PolyBW7.141.7240.0037.26-1.43-0.44
San Diego St.MWC0.001.7275.0074.600.000.85
UNLVMWC0.001.7071.4349.810.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.001.67100.0076.370.000.88
KentuckySEC7.141.66100.0085.797.141.19
Central ArkansasSlnd0.001.6114.2929.70-0.00-0.65
DavidsonA107.141.6180.0067.764.290.57
New Mexico St.WAC0.001.6171.4369.050.000.61
Northern IowaMVC7.141.6125.0055.92-3.570.19
Portland St.BSky7.141.6133.3341.98-2.38-0.26
PurdueB100.001.6171.4373.870.000.77
The CitadelSC7.141.6150.0028.050.00-0.71
TulaneAmer7.141.6116.6727.74-4.76-0.72
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2283.3361.490.000.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.2271.4358.670.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.220.0039.35-0.00-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2166.6766.100.000.07
MontanaBSky0.000.2014.2947.44-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1950.0054.690.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1975.0070.470.000.08
New OrleansSlnd0.510.1925.0030.93-0.26-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1750.0056.260.000.02
XavierBE1.430.17100.0074.801.430.08
Air ForceMWC0.000.1750.0042.710.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.890.1716.6730.02-0.60-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1760.0039.610.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1740.0037.44-0.00-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.170.0033.43-0.00-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.000.1728.5727.50-0.00-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1716.6743.29-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.1660.0048.590.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.160.0033.44-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1671.4354.520.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.1657.1469.300.000.06
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0075.690.000.08
Montana St.BSky0.000.1550.0062.460.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1560.0058.950.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.140.0021.30-0.00-0.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1466.6754.420.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1450.0059.670.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1440.0050.88-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1414.2928.15-0.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1420.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1450.0053.560.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.1460.0057.170.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.14100.0091.060.000.11
KansasB120.000.1485.7176.170.000.07
TCUB120.000.13100.0059.480.000.03
MissouriSEC1.110.1350.0045.920.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.510.1350.0056.430.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1316.6736.45-0.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.510.1350.0061.590.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1116.6740.71-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC1.490.1150.0035.230.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1133.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1175.0064.960.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1157.1448.410.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.510.1185.7180.010.360.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1137.5036.24-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1050.0043.610.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.1071.4366.530.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3353.29-0.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0925.0024.28-0.00-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0023.26-0.00-0.05
SamfordSC0.000.0957.1455.810.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0920.0054.94-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
MercerSC0.600.0950.0053.050.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.080.0033.58-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0024.19-0.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0866.6769.810.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0850.0046.670.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0850.0058.980.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0063.95-0.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0814.2937.52-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.25-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0842.8644.33-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0871.4368.660.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0850.0047.560.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0828.5733.92-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0039.200.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0083.120.000.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0842.8634.17-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.080.0020.01-0.00-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0875.0073.840.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0885.7172.660.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.510.0825.0056.71-0.260.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0633.3340.39-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.710.0662.5056.500.180.01
George MasonA100.710.0657.1442.940.10-0.01
OklahomaB121.220.0683.3351.920.820.00
UTSACUSA0.600.0628.5728.46-0.26-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.060.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.04
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.05100.0069.770.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.600.0566.6751.090.200.00
DuquesneA100.510.0537.5034.65-0.13-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.39-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0585.7180.960.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0528.5730.63-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0575.0047.510.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0583.3376.370.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0540.0067.95-0.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0571.4363.090.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0533.3348.73-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0566.6732.240.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0571.4363.570.000.01
TroySB0.000.0533.3332.23-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0082.550.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0533.3364.14-0.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0533.3345.58-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0560.0043.970.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0571.4346.010.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0571.4343.020.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0075.010.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0585.7174.430.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0525.0053.29-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.510.0516.6730.27-0.34-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.320.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0566.6754.380.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.050.0037.92-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0583.3375.060.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.0560.0057.900.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0520.0041.93-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0571.4366.220.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.050.0034.01-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0550.0049.010.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0562.5043.960.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0542.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0557.1467.020.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0557.1448.860.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.890.0333.3345.60-0.30-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.600.0383.3358.030.400.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.600.0350.0050.290.000.00
Iowa St.B120.710.0371.4368.970.310.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.600.0342.8645.30-0.09-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.710.0333.3327.13-0.24-0.01
StetsonASun0.710.0328.5728.26-0.31-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.600.0320.0036.00-0.36-0.01
ClemsonACC0.600.0366.6753.460.200.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.510.0366.6739.720.17-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.510.0333.3341.52-0.17-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.510.0375.0054.320.260.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0022.69-0.00-0.01