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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:102.0
Current RPI:102
Expected SOS:64
Current SOS:64
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15102.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Chicago St. (333.0)WACH86-50W100%0.0
11-17Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH49-39W100%0.0
11-20Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH68-44W100%0.0
11-24Maryland (13.0)B10N78-73L0%0.0
11-25Alabama (85.0)SECN76-71L0%0.0
11-29Colgate (194.0)PatH78-71W100%0.0
12-3UNLV (114.0)MWCH77-55W100%0.0
12-6Texas A&M (67.0)SECA72-71L0%0.0
12-13Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH81-74W100%0.0
12-16Marquette (147.0)BEA78-71L0%0.0
12-20Lehigh (175.0)PatH81-84L0%0.0
12-23Detroit (205.0)HorzH93-54W100%0.0
12-28Harvard (52.0)IvyH56-46W100%0.0
1-4Arizona (5.0)P12A73-49L0%0.0
1-8Oregon St. (133.0)P12A55-47L0%0.0
1-10Oregon (27.0)P12A59-56L0%0.0
1-15Utah (20.0)P12H59-76L0%0.0
1-17Colorado (116.0)P12H78-72W100%0.0
1-22California (95.0)P12A44-79W100%0.0
1-24Stanford (59.0)P12A89-70L0%0.0
1-28Oregon St. (133.0)P12H73-55W100%0.0
1-30Oregon (27.0)P12H67-68L0%0.0
2-7Arizona (5.0)P12H81-78W100%0.0
2-13Washington St. (169.0)P12A74-71L0%0.0
2-15Washington (126.0)P12A68-78W100%0.0
2-18UCLA (48.0)P12H68-66W100%0.0
2-22USC (207.0)P12H64-59W100%0.0
2-26Utah (20.0)P12A83-41L0%0.0
3-1Colorado (116.0)P12A87-81L0%0.0
3-5Stanford (59.0)P12H67-62W100%0.0
3-7California (95.0)P12H74-70W100%0.0
3-11USC (207.0)P12N64-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1226.1926.1948.3648.36-0.86-0.86
ArizonaP123.983.9893.7593.753.483.48
OregonP123.933.9370.9770.971.651.65
USCP123.913.9136.6736.67-1.04-1.04
StanfordP123.883.8860.0060.000.780.78
UtahP123.883.8872.4172.411.741.74
ColoradoP123.863.8646.6746.67-0.26-0.26
CaliforniaP123.833.8358.0658.060.620.62
Oregon St.P123.803.8053.5753.570.270.27
UCLAP122.472.4762.5062.500.620.62
WashingtonP122.372.3753.3353.330.160.16
Washington St.P122.372.3740.0040.00-0.47-0.47
Loyola MarymountWCC1.711.7124.1424.14-0.89-0.89
UNLVMWC1.711.7154.8454.840.170.17
AlabamaSEC1.641.6453.3353.330.110.11
ColgatePat1.621.6248.3948.39-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
Texas A&MSEC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
LehighPat1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz1.611.6143.3343.33-0.21-0.21
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
Chicago St.WAC1.561.5617.8617.86-1.00-1.00
HarvardIvy1.561.5676.9276.920.840.84
MarquetteBE1.561.5638.7138.71-0.35-0.35
MarylandB101.561.5681.2581.250.980.98
DePaulBE0.280.2837.5037.50-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.230.2341.1841.18-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.230.2393.9493.940.200.20
BYUWCC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
PortlandWCC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
MichiganB100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.1087.100.090.09
San Jose St.MWC0.130.130.000.00-0.13-0.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
SeattleWAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
BucknellPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LafayettePat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
UC RiversideBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
YaleIvy0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00