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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:44.0
Current RPI:44
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:52
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:236



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1144.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UMBC (327.0)AEH96-61W100%0.0
11-12Miami OH (161.0)MACH90-54W100%0.0
11-15Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH88-60W100%0.0
11-19UNLV (108.0)MWCA80-86W100%0.0
11-22Bradley (265.0)MVCH70-58W100%0.0
11-25Marquette (92.0)BEH79-77W100%0.0
11-28Creighton (10.0)BEN60-88L0%0.0
11-29College of Charleston (242.0)CAAN80-58W100%0.0
12-1Miami FL (110.0)ACCN57-60L0%0.0
12-6DePaul (154.0)BEA56-78W100%0.0
12-14Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH97-55W100%0.0
12-21Texas Tech (121.0)B12H76-62W100%0.0
12-28UC Irvine (111.0)BWH74-61W100%0.0
1-2Washington (104.0)P12H65-76L0%0.0
1-5Washington St. (224.0)P12H66-47W100%0.0
1-9USC (176.0)P12A60-79W100%0.0
1-12UCLA (14.0)P12A87-72L0%0.0
1-16Arizona (2.0)P12A91-68L0%0.0
1-23Utah (80.0)P12H79-75W100%0.0
1-25Colorado (34.0)P12H72-51W100%0.0
1-29California (63.0)P12A78-89W100%0.0
2-1Stanford (41.0)P12A76-70L0%0.0
2-6Oregon St. (100.0)P12H86-82W100%0.0
2-8Oregon (28.0)P12H74-72W100%0.0
2-14Arizona (2.0)P12H69-66W100%0.0
2-19Colorado (34.0)P12A61-52L0%0.0
2-23Utah (80.0)P12A86-63L0%0.0
2-26Stanford (41.0)P12H76-64W100%0.0
3-1California (63.0)P12H78-60W100%0.0
3-4Oregon (28.0)P12A85-78L0%0.0
3-8Oregon St. (100.0)P12A78-76L0%0.0
3-13Stanford (41.0)P12N58-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1226.2226.2265.3265.328.048.04
StanfordP125.325.3263.3363.331.421.42
ArizonaP124.034.0390.6290.623.273.27
ColoradoP123.863.8668.7568.751.451.45
CaliforniaP123.853.8563.3363.331.031.03
OregonP123.833.8373.3373.331.791.79
UtahP123.823.8264.2964.291.091.09
Oregon St.P123.803.8051.7251.720.130.13
UCLAP122.512.5175.7675.761.291.29
WashingtonP122.452.4551.6151.610.080.08
Washington St.P122.412.4131.0331.03-0.91-0.91
USCP122.392.3933.3333.33-0.80-0.80
DePaulBE1.761.7637.5037.50-0.44-0.44
CreightonBE1.731.7378.1278.120.970.97
MarquetteBE1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
UC IrvineBW1.681.6867.7467.740.600.60
Idaho St.BSky1.641.6434.6234.62-0.50-0.50
Grambling St.SWAC1.611.6115.3815.38-1.12-1.12
Texas TechB121.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
UNLVMWC1.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
Miami FLACC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA1.591.5943.3343.33-0.21-0.21
BradleyMVC1.561.5638.7138.71-0.35-0.35
Miami OHMAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
UMBCAE1.561.5628.5728.57-0.67-0.67
XavierBE0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.240.2436.6736.67-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.210.2187.1087.100.160.16
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
UC DavisBW0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.170.1787.5087.500.130.13
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.130.133.573.57-0.12-0.12
SouthernSWAC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
TowsonCAA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
NevadaMWC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
HawaiiBW0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
BaylorB120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HartfordAE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
FurmanSC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
BucknellPat0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00