Arizona St.

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	66.0
Current RPI:	66
Expected SOS:	75
Current SOS:	75
Current Record:	20-11
Expected Record:	20-11
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	12-0
Expected OOC Record:	12-0
Expected OOC RPI:	9
Expected OOC SOS:	103

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-11	66.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	94-74	W	100%
11-14	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	90-68	W	100%
11-17	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	97-62	W	100%
11-19	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	99-78	W	100%
11-23	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	N	90-92	W	100%
11-24	Xavier (3.0)	BE	N	102-86	W	100%
12-2	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	75-57	W	100%
12-8	St. John's (92.0)	BE	N	82-70	W	100%
12-10	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	85-95	W	100%
12-17	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	H	76-64	W	100%
12-19	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	95-61	W	100%
12-22	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	104-65	W	100%
12-30	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	84-78	L	0%
1-4	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	90-81	L	0%
1-7	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	77-80	W	100%
1-11	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	72-76	L	0%
1-13	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	77-75	W	100%
1-17	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	86-77	L	0%
1-20	California (216.0)	P12	A	73-81	W	100%
1-25	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	77-80	L	0%
1-27	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	80-66	W	100%
2-1	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	68-64	L	0%
2-4	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	78-88	W	100%
2-8	USC (34.0)	P12	H	80-78	W	100%
2-10	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	88-79	W	100%
2-15	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	70-77	L	0%
2-22	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	75-68	L	0%
2-24	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	79-75	L	0%
3-1	California (216.0)	P12	H	84-53	W	100%
3-3	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	83-84	L	0%
3-7	Colorado (82.0)	P12	N	97-85	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arizona St.	P12	26.23	26.23	61.65	61.65	6.11	6.11
Colorado	P12	5.51	5.51	51.72	51.72	0.19	0.19
Arizona	P12	4.13	4.13	78.12	78.12	2.33	2.33
Stanford	P12	4.00	4.00	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
Oregon	P12	3.96	3.96	62.50	62.50	0.99	0.99
California	P12	3.92	3.92	27.59	27.59	-1.76	-1.76
Oregon St.	P12	3.92	3.92	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	3.92	3.92	64.29	64.29	1.12	1.12
USC	P12	2.59	2.59	69.70	69.70	1.02	1.02
Washington St.	P12	2.54	2.54	40.00	40.00	-0.51	-0.51
UCLA	P12	2.54	2.54	67.74	67.74	0.90	0.90
Washington	P12	2.49	2.49	61.29	61.29	0.56	0.56
Kansas St.	B12	1.79	1.79	68.75	68.75	0.67	0.67
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.77	1.77	13.79	13.79	-1.28	-1.28
Xavier	BE	1.76	1.76	87.50	87.50	1.32	1.32
Kansas	B12	1.76	1.76	81.82	81.82	1.12	1.12
San Francisco	WCC	1.74	1.74	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Pacific	WCC	1.74	1.74	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
St. John's	BE	1.74	1.74	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	1.69	1.69	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
San Diego St.	MWC	1.69	1.69	70.00	70.00	0.68	0.68
UC Irvine	BW	1.69	1.69	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.66	1.66	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Longwood	BSth	1.61	1.61	13.79	13.79	-1.17	-1.17
Long Beach St.	BW	0.27	0.27	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.24	0.24	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.20	0.20	84.85	84.85	0.14	0.14
Southern Utah	BSky	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.18	0.18	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Montana	BSky	0.18	0.18	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
UNLV	MWC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.18	0.18	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.16	0.16	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Butler	BE	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.15	0.15	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Denver	Sum	0.15	0.15	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
TCU	B12	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Idaho	BSky	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Fresno St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.10	16.13	16.13	-0.07	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01