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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:125.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:56
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:180
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18125.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH88-70W100%0.0
11-13Cal Poly (297.0)BWH96-74W100%0.0
11-17Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCN63-82L0%0.0
11-18Tulane (296.0)AmerN71-80W100%0.0
11-20Davidson (93.0)A10N60-68L0%0.0
11-23The Citadel (282.0)SCH127-110W100%0.0
11-28Kentucky (3.0)SECN69-115L0%0.0
12-3UNLV (242.0)MWCH97-73W100%0.0
12-6Purdue (19.0)B10N64-97L0%0.0
12-10San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA63-74W100%0.0
12-17New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH70-81L0%0.0
12-20Creighton (26.0)BEH85-96L0%0.0
12-22Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH98-62W100%0.0
12-30Stanford (100.0)P12A93-98W100%0.0
1-1California (53.0)P12A81-65L0%0.0
1-5Colorado (99.0)P12H78-77W100%0.0
1-7Utah (83.0)P12H82-88L0%0.0
1-12Arizona (2.0)P12A91-75L0%0.0
1-19UCLA (16.0)P12A102-80L0%0.0
1-22USC (40.0)P12A82-79L0%0.0
1-25Washington (211.0)P12H86-75W100%0.0
1-29Washington St. (159.0)P12H83-91L0%0.0
2-2Oregon (9.0)P12A71-70L0%0.0
2-4Oregon St. (280.0)P12A68-81W100%0.0
2-8California (53.0)P12H43-68L0%0.0
2-11Stanford (100.0)P12H75-69W100%0.0
2-16Washington (211.0)P12A81-83W100%0.0
2-18Washington St. (159.0)P12A86-71L0%0.0
2-23UCLA (16.0)P12H75-87L0%0.0
2-26USC (40.0)P12H83-82W100%0.0
3-4Arizona (2.0)P12H60-73L0%0.0
3-8Stanford (100.0)P12N98-88W100%0.0
3-9Oregon (9.0)P12N80-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1226.2726.2741.4041.40-4.52-4.52
StanfordP125.165.1648.1548.15-0.19-0.19
ArizonaP123.893.8987.5087.502.922.92
OregonP123.863.8683.8783.872.622.62
CaliforniaP123.853.8561.2961.290.870.87
UCLAP123.833.8387.1087.102.852.85
USCP123.823.8274.1974.191.851.85
WashingtonP123.773.7731.0331.03-1.43-1.43
Washington St.P123.743.7435.7135.71-1.07-1.07
ColoradoP122.382.3858.0658.060.380.38
UtahP122.332.3360.7160.710.500.50
Oregon St.P122.322.3213.3313.33-1.70-1.70
San Diego St.MWC1.631.6358.0658.060.260.26
UNLVMWC1.631.6335.4835.48-0.47-0.47
Cal PolyBW1.611.6132.1432.14-0.57-0.57
CreightonBE1.571.5771.8871.880.680.68
KentuckySEC1.561.5684.8584.851.091.09
Central ArkansasSlnd1.521.5225.8125.81-0.73-0.73
DavidsonA101.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC1.521.5282.7682.760.990.99
Northern IowaMVC1.521.5242.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Portland St.BSky1.521.5244.4444.44-0.17-0.17
PurdueB101.521.5277.4277.420.830.83
The CitadelSC1.521.5231.0331.03-0.57-0.57
TulaneAmer1.521.5220.0020.00-0.91-0.91
Colorado St.MWC0.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
Long Beach St.BW0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
WyomingMWC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
SMUAmer0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
New OrleansSlnd0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
NevadaMWC0.170.1782.3582.350.110.11
UC IrvineBW0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
IdahoBSky0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
KansasB120.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1418.5218.52-0.09-0.09
Air ForceMWC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Montana St.BSky0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
SeattleWAC0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.120.1296.9796.970.110.11
Boise St.MWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
MichiganB100.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0861.5461.540.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0719.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
ArmyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0455.8855.880.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01