Arizona St.

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	252.0
Current RPI:	252
Expected SOS:	132
Current SOS:	132
Current Record:	10-21
Expected Record:	10-21
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-4
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	274
Expected OOC SOS:	192

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-21	252.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Montana St. (275.0)	BSky	H	78-72	W	100%
11-15	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	60-66	L	0%
11-18	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	H	71-76	L	0%
11-24	Fairfield (115.0)	MAAC	N	55-44	L	0%
11-25	Wake Forest (183.0)	ACC	N	84-56	W	100%
11-27	DePaul (198.0)	BE	N	68-64	L	0%
12-3	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	A	64-67	W	100%
12-7	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	H	61-69	L	0%
12-10	North Dakota St. (184.0)	Sum	H	60-57	W	100%
12-17	Northern Arizona (337.0)	BSky	H	68-69	L	0%
12-19	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	H	61-64	L	0%
12-21	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	H	65-68	L	0%
12-31	Arizona (79.0)	P12	A	68-51	L	0%
1-5	Southern California (270.0)	P12	A	53-62	W	100%
1-7	UCLA (117.0)	P12	N	75-58	L	0%
1-12	Oregon (67.0)	P12	H	58-67	L	0%
1-14	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	H	76-66	W	100%
1-19	Colorado (62.0)	P12	A	69-54	L	0%
1-21	Utah (274.0)	P12	A	64-43	L	0%
1-26	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	54-60	L	0%
1-28	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	H	71-67	W	100%
2-2	Stanford (97.0)	P12	A	68-44	L	0%
2-4	California (37.0)	P12	A	68-47	L	0%
2-9	Utah (274.0)	P12	H	57-52	W	100%
2-11	Colorado (62.0)	P12	H	49-63	L	0%
2-16	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	77-69	L	0%
2-18	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	A	72-50	L	0%
2-23	UCLA (117.0)	P12	H	57-66	L	0%
2-25	Southern California (270.0)	P12	H	56-52	W	100%
3-4	Arizona (79.0)	P12	H	87-80	W	100%
3-7	Stanford (97.0)	P12	N	85-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arizona St.	P12	26.22	26.22	26.49	26.49	-12.33	-12.33
Arizona	P12	4.13	4.13	68.75	68.75	1.55	1.55
UCLA	P12	4.06	4.06	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Colorado	P12	4.06	4.06	63.33	63.33	1.08	1.08
Southern California	P12	4.01	4.01	20.00	20.00	-2.41	-2.41
Stanford	P12	3.99	3.99	63.33	63.33	1.06	1.06
Washington St.	P12	3.99	3.99	46.43	46.43	-0.28	-0.28
Utah	P12	3.99	3.99	14.29	14.29	-2.85	-2.85
Washington	P12	3.96	3.96	65.52	65.52	1.23	1.23
Oregon St.	P12	2.54	2.54	58.06	58.06	0.41	0.41
California	P12	2.48	2.48	71.88	71.88	1.09	1.09
Oregon	P12	2.46	2.46	70.00	70.00	0.98	0.98
Fresno St.	WAC	1.88	1.88	33.33	33.33	-0.63	-0.63
Montana St.	BSky	1.78	1.78	38.46	38.46	-0.41	-0.41
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.78	1.78	7.69	7.69	-1.50	-1.50
Pepperdine	WCC	1.78	1.78	29.63	29.63	-0.72	-0.72
New Mexico	MWC	1.75	1.75	80.65	80.65	1.07	1.07
Nevada	WAC	1.72	1.72	79.31	79.31	1.01	1.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.67	1.67	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.64	1.64	73.33	73.33	0.76	0.76
Tulsa	CUSA	1.64	1.64	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
DePaul	BE	1.61	1.61	36.67	36.67	-0.43	-0.43
Fairfield	MAAC	1.61	1.61	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
Wake Forest	ACC	1.61	1.61	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.28	0.28	72.73	72.73	0.13	0.13
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.25	0.25	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.24	0.24	20.00	20.00	-0.15	-0.15
Idaho	WAC	0.21	0.21	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	77.42	77.42	0.11	0.11
Weber St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	78.57	78.57	0.11	0.11
Brigham Young	WCC	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.19	0.19	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
San Jose St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.18	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Colorado St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
Montana	BSky	0.17	0.17	79.31	79.31	0.10	0.10
UC Riverside	BW	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.16	0.16	19.23	19.23	-0.10	-0.10
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.14	21.43	21.43	-0.08	-0.08
Hawaii	WAC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.93	25.93	-0.04	-0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	83.87	83.87	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	86.21	86.21	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	65.38	65.38	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00