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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Western Kentucky

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:153.8
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:78
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:150
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-730.00.01%
20-855.50.13%
19-964.70.60%
18-1077.51.72%
17-1195.05.34%
16-12110.810.92%
15-13129.116.66%
14-14148.119.99%
13-15168.319.34%
12-16187.813.45%
11-17209.77.35%
10-18228.93.36%
9-19248.50.92%
8-20263.00.13%
7-21288.50.04%
6-22297.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Austin Peay (295.4)OVCH77-70W100%0.0
11-18Minnesota (49.5)B10A76-54L0%0.0
11-22Belmont (129.8)OVCH63-64L0%0.0
11-25Stony Brook (151.0)AEA71-61L0%0.0
11-27Saint Joseph's (196.2)A10N59-62W100%0.0
12-3Bowling Green (93.2)MACH62-52W100%0.0
12-6Murray St. (172.8)OVCA93-81L0%0.0
12-13Mississippi (102.4)SECA74-81W100%0.0
12-17Chicago St. (338.9)WACH0-096%20.3
12-20Louisville (6.8)ACCH0-08%-17.0
1-4Marshall (215.1)CUSAH0-069%5.8
1-8Charlotte (72.8)CUSAH0-043%-2.2
1-10Old Dominion (48.0)CUSAH0-036%-4.2
1-15Florida Atlantic (176.8)CUSAA0-037%-4.0
1-17FIU (139.2)CUSAA0-033%-5.2
1-22UTEP (61.9)CUSAH0-041%-2.8
1-24UTSA (270.3)CUSAH0-081%10.3
1-29Louisiana Tech (118.0)CUSAA0-024%-8.5
1-31Southern Miss (255.6)CUSAA0-060%3.0
2-5North Texas (247.8)CUSAH0-080%9.9
2-7Rice (289.4)CUSAH0-084%11.6
2-14Marshall (215.1)CUSAA0-039%-3.2
2-19UAB (217.8)CUSAA0-045%-1.6
2-22Middle Tennessee (210.4)CUSAA0-046%-1.2
2-26Florida Atlantic (176.8)CUSAH0-066%5.0
2-28FIU (139.2)CUSAH0-062%3.7
3-5Charlotte (72.8)CUSAA0-017%-11.2
3-7Old Dominion (48.0)CUSAA0-013%-13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western KentuckyCUSA27.8726.1752.9448.321.64-0.88
MarshallCUSA0.004.3425.0038.42-0.00-1.01
FIUCUSA0.004.2850.0054.640.000.40
CharlotteCUSA0.004.2655.5665.660.001.33
Old DominionCUSA0.004.2587.5081.290.002.66
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.004.2550.0052.260.000.19
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.702.6044.4444.16-0.08-0.30
UABCUSA0.002.5333.3337.68-0.00-0.62
North TexasCUSA0.002.5342.8637.34-0.00-0.64
RiceCUSA0.002.5216.6725.35-0.00-1.24
UTEPCUSA0.002.4766.6772.610.001.12
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.4770.0066.160.000.80
UTSACUSA0.002.4742.8636.38-0.00-0.67
Southern MissCUSA0.002.4650.0032.460.00-0.86
LouisvilleACC0.351.94100.0085.160.351.36
Murray St.OVC6.251.9142.8656.96-0.890.27
Austin PeayOVC6.251.9125.0032.98-3.12-0.65
BelmontOVC6.251.8855.5660.990.690.41
Bowling GreenMAC6.251.8285.7169.354.460.70
Chicago St.WAC0.001.820.0011.86-0.00-1.39
MississippiSEC6.251.8275.0053.173.120.12
MinnesotaB106.251.8175.0063.643.120.50
Saint Joseph'sA106.251.7962.5041.221.56-0.31
Stony BrookAE6.251.7928.5753.30-2.680.12
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2520.0047.17-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.390.2244.4447.24-0.04-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.2255.5639.260.00-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1942.8655.73-0.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.190.0023.06-0.00-0.10
GeorgiaSEC0.740.1862.5059.380.180.03
LSUSEC0.000.1877.7861.940.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.1890.9154.340.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1790.0075.840.000.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1633.3339.81-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1671.4367.660.000.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.160.0017.65-0.00-0.10
Wright St.Horz1.020.1655.5653.100.110.01
AkronMAC0.000.1660.0056.480.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1562.5064.900.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1342.8644.96-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.1311.1129.36-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.970.1325.0042.82-0.49-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1350.0050.190.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1340.0065.07-0.000.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.1271.4372.840.000.06
ElonCAA0.000.1237.5048.77-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.1250.0050.920.000.00
CreightonBE0.350.1272.7351.370.160.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.390.1237.5048.43-0.10-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.740.1225.0040.22-0.37-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1262.5065.100.000.04
VCUA100.310.1270.0071.110.120.05
SouthernSWAC0.690.120.0034.13-0.69-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1240.0058.50-0.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0022.93-0.00-0.06
Washington St.P120.000.1040.0028.86-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.310.1050.0037.020.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.350.1060.0050.220.070.00
TroySB0.690.0933.3341.99-0.23-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0937.5045.72-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0910.0040.34-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5072.760.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0957.1456.250.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.350.0940.0049.29-0.07-0.00
UMBCAE0.350.0910.0021.35-0.28-0.05
VermontAE0.350.0950.0060.040.000.02
DaytonA100.390.0977.7869.570.220.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0918.1827.73-0.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0977.7871.340.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.740.0975.0065.380.370.03
George MasonA100.000.0925.0025.93-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.000.0950.0056.190.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0990.9188.300.000.07
DavidsonA100.000.0987.5076.910.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.0960.0064.780.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6766.860.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0970.0071.650.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0914.2945.16-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0977.7851.200.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0737.5037.27-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0785.7173.700.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0013.85-0.00-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0725.0047.42-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0750.0030.140.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.390.0683.3358.570.260.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.390.060.0032.02-0.39-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3347.31-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.770.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.23-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.780.0620.0020.57-0.47-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.700.0675.0070.380.350.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0044.19-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0671.4360.170.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0622.2227.10-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0033.140.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.350.0662.5078.030.090.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0655.5655.960.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.30-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3341.10-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.350.0625.0037.29-0.17-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.43-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.62-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.390.0680.0071.140.230.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6755.560.000.01
TCUB120.350.06100.0067.440.350.02
DenverSum0.310.0644.4455.06-0.030.01
IllinoisB100.350.0670.0066.410.140.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0019.38-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8964.140.000.02
SamfordSC0.350.0633.3331.09-0.12-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0650.0048.280.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.350.0622.2245.74-0.19-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.50-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0620.0033.83-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3639.31-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.390.0662.5064.640.100.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0013.10-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0070.980.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0064.120.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0630.0028.28-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.00-0.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.0612.5024.45-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.630.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.390.0627.2737.98-0.18-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.360.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6765.150.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0070.570.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0067.550.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.93-0.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.250.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.090.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.350.0633.3326.81-0.12-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4450.93-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0628.5727.72-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0642.8656.16-0.000.01
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.660.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0650.0049.920.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6743.24-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.070.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.71-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6742.930.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0672.7363.400.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0064.650.000.02
TempleAmer0.350.0660.0054.040.070.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0637.5032.05-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.560.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0680.0063.530.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0688.8984.020.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.080.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.350.0650.0037.860.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0642.8633.13-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0045.540.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0094.460.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0657.1447.630.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0662.5053.840.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.53-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2932.21-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.790.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.09-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.150.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0375.0050.490.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.17-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0390.0081.780.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0328.5726.77-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0360.0047.810.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.940.000.00
BrownIvy0.350.0340.0034.21-0.07-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.430.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3363.180.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3340.42-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6739.030.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.390.0350.0053.430.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3366.520.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4440.58-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0371.4377.180.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.350.0333.3334.47-0.12-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.270.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.39-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5051.76-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0350.0061.230.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.51-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.390.0375.0049.190.20-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5047.890.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.390.0380.0069.650.230.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.950.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.930.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0061.890.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0077.640.000.02
HofstraCAA0.390.0377.7877.550.220.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0366.6773.810.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.390.0372.7352.480.180.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1143.47-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0333.3338.84-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.350.0328.5741.09-0.15-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.22-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.350.0390.0091.020.280.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0342.8652.83-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3347.11-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0310.0018.60-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.920.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0370.0070.960.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.350.0325.0033.19-0.17-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.83-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0337.5032.38-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.390.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0355.5631.620.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.350.0387.5064.670.260.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.470.000.00
VillanovaBE0.350.03100.0082.270.350.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.850.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0322.2230.22-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.350.0350.0046.750.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0366.6772.470.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.520.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0344.4433.13-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.27-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.46-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.350.0362.5057.800.090.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0357.1445.530.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7866.040.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.540.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.250.00-0.01