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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Western Kentucky

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:195.0
Current RPI:313
Expected SOS:114
Current SOS:284
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:210
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-848.00.01%
19-966.80.09%
18-1079.20.12%
17-1193.40.73%
16-12106.61.68%
15-13125.34.57%
14-14142.79.19%
13-15162.513.64%
12-16182.417.52%
11-17202.318.14%
10-18223.115.44%
9-19243.110.23%
8-20261.45.36%
7-21280.12.26%
6-22294.00.81%
5-23308.20.18%
4-24318.00.01%
3-25314.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Austin Peay (300.8)OVCH77-70W100%0.0
11-18Minnesota (74.0)B10A76-54L0%0.0
11-22Belmont (83.9)OVCH63-64L0%0.0
11-25Stony Brook (100.7)AEA71-61L0%0.0
11-27Saint Joseph's (206.9)A10N0-057%2.0
12-3Bowling Green (95.8)MACH0-046%-1.2
12-6Murray St. (133.0)OVCA0-023%-8.8
12-13Mississippi (99.5)SECA0-018%-11.1
12-17Chicago St. (315.8)WACH0-087%13.6
12-20Louisville (12.7)ACCH0-08%-16.7
1-4Marshall (166.9)CUSAH0-056%1.9
1-8Charlotte (70.3)CUSAH0-034%-5.1
1-10Old Dominion (72.2)CUSAH0-035%-4.7
1-15Florida Atlantic (240.1)CUSAA0-046%-1.3
1-17FIU (202.5)CUSAA0-044%-1.8
1-22UTEP (87.5)CUSAH0-039%-3.5
1-24UTSA (298.7)CUSAH0-080%10.0
1-29Louisiana Tech (78.8)CUSAA0-017%-11.5
1-31Southern Miss (155.8)CUSAA0-034%-4.9
2-5North Texas (218.3)CUSAH0-069%6.0
2-7Rice (260.2)CUSAH0-078%9.1
2-14Marshall (166.9)CUSAA0-033%-5.3
2-19UAB (180.6)CUSAA0-036%-4.4
2-22Middle Tennessee (172.3)CUSAA0-035%-4.7
2-26Florida Atlantic (240.1)CUSAH0-069%5.9
2-28FIU (202.5)CUSAH0-067%5.3
3-5Charlotte (70.3)CUSAA0-015%-12.2
3-7Old Dominion (72.2)CUSAA0-016%-11.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western KentuckyCUSA31.7726.1818.7538.72-19.86-5.91
MarshallCUSA0.004.3566.6749.370.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.004.2950.0043.010.00-0.60
CharlotteCUSA0.004.2760.0067.750.001.51
Old DominionCUSA0.004.2680.0074.570.002.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.004.260.0038.00-0.00-1.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.6166.6748.980.00-0.05
UABCUSA0.002.5433.3343.42-0.00-0.33
North TexasCUSA0.002.5466.6740.250.00-0.49
RiceCUSA0.002.5333.3330.33-0.00-1.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.4880.0070.520.001.02
UTEPCUSA0.002.48100.0071.230.001.05
UTSACUSA0.002.4833.3329.12-0.00-1.04
Southern MissCUSA0.002.4866.6750.170.000.01
LouisvilleACC2.081.94100.0079.092.081.13
Murray St.OVC0.001.9133.3368.17-0.000.70
Austin PeayOVC12.501.910.0033.60-12.50-0.63
BelmontOVC12.501.8866.6770.894.170.79
MississippiSEC0.001.8275.0051.710.000.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.82100.0062.550.000.46
Chicago St.WAC0.001.820.0020.24-0.00-1.08
MinnesotaB1012.501.8150.0058.040.000.29
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.7960.0037.260.00-0.46
Stony BrookAE12.501.7933.3364.86-4.170.53
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2520.0053.43-0.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2225.0045.33-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.2225.0031.38-0.00-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.19100.0060.830.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.190.0032.89-0.00-0.07
LSUSEC0.000.1860.0056.190.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1883.3348.030.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.17100.0081.280.000.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.160.0034.82-0.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1666.6741.550.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.160.0025.13-0.00-0.08
Wright St.Horz1.560.1666.6756.780.520.02
GeorgiaSEC1.560.1675.0055.820.780.02
AkronMAC0.000.1660.0066.000.000.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1540.0050.32-0.000.00
LipscombASun3.120.130.0042.35-3.12-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1340.0067.55-0.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.13100.0030.140.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1366.6744.670.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.130.0032.66-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.1250.0067.050.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.1250.0043.080.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1250.0065.470.000.04
HartfordAE0.000.1280.0051.980.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1233.3345.50-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.120.0044.90-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.1280.0073.820.000.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0035.37-0.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1266.6747.140.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0027.32-0.00-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1040.0047.10-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.100.0042.64-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.1066.6752.600.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0920.0043.52-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0925.0045.15-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0975.0056.430.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0920.0050.95-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0060.560.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.260.000.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0060.980.000.02
UMBCAE2.080.090.0028.76-2.08-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0081.020.000.06
DaytonA100.000.0975.0071.680.000.04
VermontAE0.000.0933.3358.10-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0033.07-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0069.870.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0933.3350.48-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0920.0022.51-0.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.0966.6766.740.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0950.0053.610.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6772.650.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0049.350.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0766.6760.350.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0040.78-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0733.3333.84-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0766.6774.280.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0024.22-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.070.0050.30-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0048.890.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0733.3329.16-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.98-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB101.560.06100.0065.711.560.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0039.42-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.72-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.41-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.660.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0027.00-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0666.6762.900.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0047.31-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0064.740.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0030.040.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0044.550.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.63-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.58-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6750.600.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.990.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0035.41-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC1.560.0640.0040.15-0.31-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.870.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.09-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.110.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0625.0050.46-0.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0031.72-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3361.54-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.32-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0024.20-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0625.0033.31-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
ColumbiaIvy1.560.0675.0064.500.780.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.34-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0079.080.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.290.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.30-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.060.0017.58-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0053.250.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.34-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3349.68-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0680.0067.040.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0042.550.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6754.040.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.280.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0071.450.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.160.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0035.490.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0640.0028.76-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0680.0058.080.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0074.680.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0660.0047.180.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6771.550.000.03
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.74-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.90-0.000.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.940.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2929.93-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0680.0060.610.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0047.350.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.46-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0049.930.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.550.000.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.980.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0067.890.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0025.530.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0052.47-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0650.0050.280.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.45-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0037.60-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.13-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6744.530.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.120.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.600.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0053.250.000.00
Indiana St.MVC1.560.0375.0044.920.78-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0041.110.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0046.130.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0028.11-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3349.98-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0054.250.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3346.11-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.220.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.230.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.22-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0366.6769.740.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.890.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0064.410.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0017.79-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0320.0029.38-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.43-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.300.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.920.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0079.400.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6755.870.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3323.56-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA1.560.0360.0066.760.310.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0072.100.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.400.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.430.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.87-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0069.080.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.400.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.030.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0055.960.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0055.470.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3337.42-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0085.190.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0325.0051.72-0.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0031.98-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.72-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.30-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.180.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.91-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.61-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0067.070.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0078.020.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0044.83-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0052.120.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0084.950.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0039.52-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.70-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01