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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Western Kentucky

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:153.0
Current RPI:153
Expected SOS:127
Current SOS:127
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16153.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Belmont (98.0)OVCA90-85L0%0.0
11-21Stony Brook (59.0)AEH67-66W100%0.0
11-23Drake (325.0)MVCN81-79L0%0.0
11-24Central Michigan (156.0)MACN60-88W100%0.0
11-25Duquesne (162.0)A10N73-81L0%0.0
12-1Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH86-84W100%0.0
12-5Xavier (7.0)BEA95-64L0%0.0
12-13Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH75-62W100%0.0
12-16Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH79-70W100%0.0
12-19Louisville (17.0)ACCA78-56L0%0.0
12-22Detroit (204.0)HorzH79-74W100%0.0
1-3Marshall (128.0)CUSAA94-76L0%0.0
1-7FIU (270.0)CUSAH72-75L0%0.0
1-9Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH86-82W100%0.0
1-14Rice (279.0)CUSAA83-73L0%0.0
1-16North Texas (295.0)CUSAA76-81W100%0.0
1-21Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA68-62L0%0.0
1-23Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA88-71L0%0.0
1-28UAB (88.0)CUSAH69-62W100%0.0
1-30Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH64-66L0%0.0
2-4UTSA (347.0)CUSAA71-83W100%0.0
2-6UTEP (215.0)CUSAA93-89L0%0.0
2-13Marshall (128.0)CUSAH93-96L0%0.0
2-18Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH56-59L0%0.0
2-20Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH59-54W100%0.0
2-25Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAA72-78W100%0.0
2-27UAB (88.0)CUSAA71-67L0%0.0
3-3Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH75-60W100%0.0
3-5Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAH96-90W100%0.0
3-9North Texas (295.0)CUSAN84-76W100%0.0
3-10UAB (88.0)CUSAA77-88W100%0.0
3-11Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAN89-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western KentuckyCUSA26.2926.2949.2849.28-0.38-0.38
Old DominionCUSA5.425.4259.3859.381.021.02
UABCUSA5.285.2885.7185.713.773.77
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.963.9672.4172.411.771.77
MarshallCUSA3.943.9448.3948.39-0.13-0.13
CharlotteCUSA3.873.8741.9441.94-0.62-0.62
North TexasCUSA3.793.7935.7135.71-1.08-1.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.382.3823.3323.33-1.27-1.27
RiceCUSA2.332.3331.0331.03-0.88-0.88
FIUCUSA2.292.2934.4834.48-0.71-0.71
Louisiana TechCUSA2.282.2872.4172.411.021.02
UTEPCUSA2.272.2754.8454.840.220.22
UTSACUSA2.212.2113.7913.79-1.60-1.60
Southern MissCUSA2.212.2126.9226.92-1.02-1.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC1.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
Indiana St.MVC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
DrakeMVC1.611.6117.2417.24-1.06-1.06
Alabama A&MSWAC1.561.5637.0437.04-0.41-0.41
Central MichiganMAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA101.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
LouisvilleACC1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
Stony BrookAE1.561.5682.7682.761.021.02
XavierBE1.561.5683.8783.871.061.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.230.2320.6920.69-0.14-0.14
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
Georgia St.SB0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
TroySB0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1564.2964.290.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
AuburnSEC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1322.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
Murray St.OVC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Saint LouisA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UMBCAE0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
OhioMAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01