Western Kentucky

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	240.2
Current RPI:	245
Expected SOS:	145
Current SOS:	146
Current Record:	8-15
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	4-6
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.26%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-6
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC RPI:	221
Expected OOC SOS:	45

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-15	178.0	0.01%
13-16	194.3	0.94%
12-17	209.5	6.90%
11-18	225.2	22.77%
10-19	240.5	36.18%
9-20	255.3	26.55%
8-21	268.3	6.64%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Saint Joseph's (49.2)	A10	H	61-72	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Tennessee St. (155.4)	OVC	H	52-49	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	N	49-65	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Louisiana St. (85.2)	SEC	N	76-57	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)	CAA	N	69-64	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)	CAA	H	45-68	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)	Slnd	H	72-67	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Murray St. (30.1)	OVC	H	59-70	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	H	60-53	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Southern Illinois (227.1)	MVC	A	55-62	W	100%	0.0
12-10	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	A	84-76	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Furman (230.9)	SC	H	63-76	L	0%	0.0
12-23	Louisville (25.3)	BE	A	70-60	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	71-76	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Florida International (212.8)	SB	H	63-81	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	H	70-72	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	65-67	L	0%	0.0
1-12	North Texas (203.3)	SB	A	84-67	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	78-65	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	H	65-53	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	A	67-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Florida International (212.8)	SB	A	51-61	W	100%	0.0
2-4	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	H	75-66	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	0-0		5%	-18.2
2-11	Troy (274.9)	SB	A	0-0		42%	-2.1
2-16	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	0-0		46%	-1.0
2-18	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	0-0		31%	-5.4
2-23	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	0-0		61%	3.0
2-25	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	H	0-0		15%	-11.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Kentucky	SB	26.32	26.26	31.30	31.49	-9.84	-9.72
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.66	4.18	83.33	84.36	0.44	2.87
Florida International	SB	4.69	4.17	31.58	36.13	-1.73	-1.16
South Alabama	SB	2.67	4.16	55.00	54.40	0.27	0.37
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.62	4.14	33.33	36.87	-0.87	-1.09
Troy	SB	2.62	4.13	25.00	26.11	-1.31	-1.97
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	4.35	3.45	78.26	76.54	2.46	1.83
Arkansas St.	SB	0.54	2.41	37.50	38.29	-0.13	-0.56
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.65	2.40	45.45	45.83	-0.24	-0.20
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.68	2.38	9.09	9.32	-2.19	-1.93
North Texas	SB	2.51	2.37	47.37	48.01	-0.13	-0.09
Denver	SB	2.52	2.35	69.57	71.24	0.99	1.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.62	2.35	52.17	53.13	0.11	0.15
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.17	1.85	59.09	55.07	0.40	0.19
Louisiana St.	SEC	2.28	1.82	57.14	55.80	0.33	0.21
Tulsa	CUSA	2.33	1.81	59.09	57.64	0.42	0.28
Murray St.	OVC	2.17	1.81	100.00	94.34	2.17	1.61
Bowling Green	MAC	2.28	1.79	50.00	50.57	0.00	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.27	1.78	29.41	30.76	-0.93	-0.69
Louisville	BE	2.22	1.78	77.27	71.74	1.21	0.78
IUPUI	Sum	2.27	1.78	31.82	33.20	-0.82	-0.60
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.22	1.75	60.87	61.24	0.48	0.39
Furman	SC	2.17	1.72	45.00	46.86	-0.22	-0.11
Southern Illinois	MVC	2.17	1.72	36.36	33.21	-0.59	-0.58
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.30	0.32	78.26	72.34	0.17	0.14
UAB	CUSA	0.24	0.31	40.91	39.82	-0.04	-0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.20	0.31	33.33	35.97	-0.07	-0.09
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.25	0.28	4.35	9.66	-0.23	-0.22
George Mason	CAA	0.15	0.24	76.00	72.50	0.08	0.11
Georgia St.	CAA	0.33	0.24	66.67	69.69	0.11	0.09
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.25	0.22	25.00	23.75	-0.12	-0.11
Belmont	ASun	0.10	0.22	69.57	73.28	0.04	0.10
Southern Utah	Sum	0.15	0.19	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.18	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.17	68.18	67.91	0.05	0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.22	0.17	32.00	35.39	-0.08	-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.15	0.16	85.71	82.18	0.11	0.10
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.16	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.20	0.16	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.20	0.15	80.77	80.75	0.12	0.09
Lamar	Slnd	0.15	0.15	61.90	67.23	0.04	0.05
NC Greensboro	SC	0.14	0.15	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.15	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.15	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.14	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.13	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.17	0.13	31.82	25.98	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.13	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.16	0.13	18.18	21.13	-0.10	-0.07
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.13	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.13	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.20	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.04	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.12	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.12	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.14	0.12	87.50	85.41	0.10	0.08
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.12	81.82	77.20	0.06	0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.12	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.12	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.11	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.11	68.18	69.10	0.05	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.11	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.11	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.11	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.18	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.11	4.00	5.26	-0.08	-0.10
William & Mary	CAA	0.17	0.11	12.50	13.44	-0.13	-0.08
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	17.65	27.10	-0.06	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.10	33.33	34.47	-0.05	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.10	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.10	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.10	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.16	0.10	76.19	75.94	0.08	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.09	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.09	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.15	0.09	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.09	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.09	26.32	29.71	-0.07	-0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.15	0.09	9.52	11.44	-0.12	-0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.09	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.09	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.15	0.09	72.22	71.97	0.07	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.15	0.09	25.00	37.58	-0.07	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.15	0.09	58.33	59.98	0.03	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.09	69.57	65.15	0.06	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.09	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.09	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.09	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.04	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.14	0.09	82.61	80.42	0.09	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.09	59.09	56.35	0.03	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.09	95.83	92.57	0.13	0.07
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.09	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.09	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.10	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.08	79.17	78.10	0.08	0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.07	16.67	23.02	-0.03	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.07	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.07	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.07	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.07	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.05	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.06	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.09	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.03	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.00	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.03	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.00	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.09	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.05	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.00	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.00	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.00	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.00	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.00	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.04	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.02	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01