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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Western Kentucky

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:117.0
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:155
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12117.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH77-70W100%0.0
11-18Minnesota (98.0)B10A76-54L0%0.0
11-22Belmont (105.0)OVCH63-64L0%0.0
11-25Stony Brook (107.0)AEA71-61L0%0.0
11-27Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10N59-62W100%0.0
12-3Bowling Green (109.0)MACH62-52W100%0.0
12-6Murray St. (63.0)OVCA93-81L0%0.0
12-13Mississippi (60.0)SECA74-81W100%0.0
12-17Chicago St. (333.0)WACH75-60W100%0.0
12-20Louisville (21.0)ACCH67-76L0%0.0
1-4Marshall (296.0)CUSAH81-62W100%0.0
1-8Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH74-66W100%0.0
1-10Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAH72-65W100%0.0
1-15Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAA85-88W100%0.0
1-17FIU (217.0)CUSAA58-65W100%0.0
1-22UTEP (78.0)CUSAH71-66W100%0.0
1-24UTSA (237.0)CUSAH83-74W100%0.0
1-29Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA69-56L0%0.0
1-31Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA62-73W100%0.0
2-5North Texas (224.0)CUSAH65-59W100%0.0
2-7Rice (247.0)CUSAH68-72L0%0.0
2-14Marshall (296.0)CUSAA87-82L0%0.0
2-19UAB (130.0)CUSAA71-66L0%0.0
2-22Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA68-66L0%0.0
2-26Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH71-68W100%0.0
2-28FIU (217.0)CUSAH77-61W100%0.0
3-5Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA84-88W100%0.0
3-7Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA75-52L0%0.0
3-11Marshall (296.0)CUSAN59-45W100%0.0
3-12UAB (130.0)CUSAN53-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western KentuckyCUSA26.2626.2660.9460.945.745.74
MarshallCUSA5.715.7129.6329.63-2.33-2.33
FIUCUSA4.134.1348.2848.28-0.14-0.14
UABCUSA4.084.0851.6151.610.130.13
CharlotteCUSA4.054.0546.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Old DominionCUSA4.054.0579.3179.312.372.37
Florida AtlanticCUSA4.034.0328.0028.00-1.77-1.77
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.652.6551.5251.520.080.08
RiceCUSA2.432.4332.1432.14-0.87-0.87
Louisiana TechCUSA2.432.4374.1974.191.181.18
UTEPCUSA2.412.4170.9770.971.011.01
North TexasCUSA2.412.4142.8642.86-0.34-0.34
UTSACUSA2.382.3844.4444.44-0.26-0.26
Southern MissCUSA2.342.3426.9226.92-1.08-1.08
LouisvilleACC1.831.8374.1974.190.890.89
Murray St.OVC1.801.8082.7682.761.181.18
BelmontOVC1.781.7866.6766.670.590.59
Austin PeayOVC1.781.7822.2222.22-0.99-0.99
MississippiSEC1.701.7064.5264.520.490.49
Bowling GreenMAC1.701.7068.9768.970.640.64
Chicago St.WAC1.691.6917.8617.86-1.09-1.09
MinnesotaB101.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA101.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Stony BrookAE1.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
Morehead St.OVC0.300.3046.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.220.2234.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.190.1952.9452.940.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1738.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
AkronMAC0.160.1658.8258.820.030.03
Miami FLACC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
Wright St.Horz0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
ElonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
LipscombASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
VermontAE0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
TroySB0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01