live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Western Kentucky

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:248.0
Current RPI:305
Expected SOS:150
Current SOS:313
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:230



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1296.00.04%
18-13108.20.04%
17-14131.10.33%
16-15147.90.89%
15-16168.52.07%
14-17187.75.34%
13-18206.89.47%
12-19225.014.87%
11-20243.418.33%
10-21260.818.44%
9-22277.514.87%
8-23291.18.62%
7-24304.25.01%
6-25315.51.26%
5-26324.30.39%
4-27331.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Alabama St. (324.9)SWACH79-66W100%0.0
11-16Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCH74-67W100%0.0
11-19Belmont (122.5)OVCA90-69L0%0.0
11-22North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACH77-56W100%0.0
11-25Washington (105.3)P12N47-86L0%0.0
11-26UNLV (163.6)MWCA71-61L0%0.0
11-30Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCA78-59L0%0.0
12-3Missouri (167.3)SECA0-012%-14.0
12-11Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA0-014%-13.0
12-14Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCA0-02%-25.7
12-17Detroit (301.2)HorzA0-052%0.7
12-21Ohio (94.7)MACH0-027%-7.4
12-28Austin Peay (212.5)OVCH0-054%1.1
12-31Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAA0-036%-4.2
1-2FIU (267.5)CUSAA0-038%-3.7
1-5Charlotte (177.2)CUSAH0-044%-1.8
1-7Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAH0-026%-7.7
1-12UAB (128.6)CUSAA0-014%-13.0
1-14Middle Tennessee (55.1)CUSAA0-010%-15.7
1-21Marshall (88.7)CUSAA0-017%-11.6
1-26UTEP (255.5)CUSAH0-055%1.4
1-28UTSA (302.7)CUSAH0-068%5.8
2-2Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAA0-012%-13.9
2-4Southern Miss (316.2)CUSAA0-059%2.7
2-11Marshall (88.7)CUSAH0-033%-5.4
2-16Middle Tennessee (55.1)CUSAH0-022%-9.5
2-19UAB (128.6)CUSAH0-029%-6.8
2-23Charlotte (177.2)CUSAA0-025%-8.0
2-25Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAA0-012%-13.9
3-2North Texas (300.2)CUSAH0-071%6.6
3-4Rice (102.7)CUSAH0-029%-6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western KentuckyCUSA28.9826.1439.1333.05-6.30-8.86
MarshallCUSA0.003.9583.3358.480.000.67
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.003.8785.7172.190.001.72
UABCUSA0.003.8757.1460.740.000.83
Old DominionCUSA0.003.8466.6764.730.001.13
CharlotteCUSA0.003.8366.6750.000.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.002.2985.7168.930.000.87
North TexasCUSA0.002.2840.0030.87-0.00-0.87
FIUCUSA0.002.2816.6732.68-0.00-0.79
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.2820.0033.25-0.00-0.76
Louisiana TechCUSA0.512.2640.0067.24-0.100.78
UTSACUSA0.002.2328.5728.35-0.00-0.97
UTEPCUSA0.002.2325.0043.19-0.00-0.30
Southern MissCUSA0.002.2333.3322.63-0.00-1.22
Eastern KentuckyOVC7.141.8133.3344.87-2.38-0.19
BelmontOVC7.141.8125.0059.88-3.570.36
Jacksonville St.OVC7.651.7866.6749.012.55-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.001.7040.0041.47-0.00-0.29
Alabama St.SWAC7.651.6716.6735.79-5.10-0.47
OhioMAC0.001.6780.0068.140.000.60
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.67100.0088.710.001.29
DetroitHorz0.001.610.0018.50-0.00-1.02
Indiana St.MVC0.001.6133.3345.40-0.00-0.15
MissouriSEC0.001.6150.0044.480.00-0.18
North Carolina A&TMEAC7.141.610.0025.18-7.14-0.80
UNLVMWC7.141.6166.6747.912.38-0.07
WashingtonP127.141.6150.0050.990.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.2883.3370.360.000.11
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2520.0041.93-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2314.2928.66-0.00-0.10
Murray St.OVC0.000.2242.8661.90-0.000.05
ToledoMAC0.000.2242.8650.36-0.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2050.0043.490.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1757.1440.590.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1775.0054.320.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.170.0013.30-0.00-0.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1450.0038.430.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.140.0042.55-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.140.0028.15-0.00-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1416.6732.62-0.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.510.1483.3361.150.340.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1433.3340.39-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.1425.0056.92-0.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky2.040.1414.2928.15-1.46-0.06
HowardMEAC0.000.140.0038.26-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1466.6775.370.000.07
TCUB122.550.14100.0059.482.550.03
AuburnSEC0.510.1483.3355.200.340.01
Georgia St.SB0.510.1460.0067.410.100.05
LipscombASun0.710.1214.2933.07-0.51-0.04
FloridaSEC0.710.1187.5075.320.540.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1116.6730.27-0.00-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1133.3333.15-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.1150.0033.010.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6736.45-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1128.5723.76-0.00-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1150.0052.330.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1116.6736.35-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.110.0034.23-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1142.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.510.1185.7163.780.360.03
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4349.770.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.1183.3369.840.000.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.710.1128.5734.18-0.31-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1175.0074.990.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.710.1157.1448.860.10-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0024.25-0.00-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW2.040.1116.6730.02-1.36-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1171.4346.010.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.1185.7178.150.000.06
NevadaMWC0.000.1175.0070.470.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0971.4343.020.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0971.4352.370.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0950.0071.330.000.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0933.3348.71-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0950.0035.230.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0933.3343.64-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.710.0975.0047.510.36-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0983.3358.030.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6770.930.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0950.0056.430.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0933.3338.20-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0850.0052.140.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0828.5727.50-0.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0885.7172.660.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.710.0871.4370.330.310.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0034.01-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0032.39-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0850.0050.290.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.710.0857.1459.480.100.02
Missouri St.MVC0.510.0875.0064.960.260.02
PacificWCC0.000.0850.0049.010.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0857.1467.020.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0885.7174.430.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0842.8637.60-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0883.3362.840.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.060.000.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
StanfordP120.000.0875.0059.100.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0850.0046.670.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0866.6769.810.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0885.7175.950.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0885.7155.550.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0825.0056.71-0.000.01
TroySB0.000.0833.3332.23-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.510.0883.3377.170.340.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0871.4358.670.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0885.7170.990.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0840.0037.44-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0850.0053.560.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0857.1436.050.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0885.7176.170.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.510.0628.5730.29-0.22-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.06100.0069.770.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0533.3335.92-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0583.3363.610.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0557.1442.660.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0560.0039.610.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.050.0037.92-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0585.7180.960.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.050.0023.47-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0520.0049.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0557.1444.160.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0557.1448.600.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0528.5733.92-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0566.6766.100.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0550.0054.490.000.00
UCLAP120.000.05100.0083.550.000.04
USCP120.000.05100.0075.380.000.03
UtahP120.000.0575.0061.040.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0516.6718.96-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0540.0055.44-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.0571.4366.730.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0550.0042.710.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0583.3361.490.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0560.0048.590.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.510.0314.2929.81-0.36-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
IUPUISum0.510.0328.5747.72-0.22-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.510.0360.0039.200.10-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.710.0366.6758.420.240.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.510.030.0039.35-0.51-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.01
YaleIvy0.510.0333.3364.14-0.170.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.510.030.0023.26-0.51-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.510.030.0033.43-0.51-0.01