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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Western Kentucky

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:226.0
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:266
Current SOS:266
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17226.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH79-66W100%0.0
11-16Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH74-67W100%0.0
11-19Belmont (61.0)OVCA90-69L0%0.0
11-22North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH77-56W100%0.0
11-25Washington (211.0)P12N47-86L0%0.0
11-26UNLV (242.0)MWCA71-61L0%0.0
11-30Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA78-59L0%0.0
12-3Missouri (257.0)SECA59-56L0%0.0
12-11Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA59-77W100%0.0
12-14Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA73-51L0%0.0
12-17Detroit (289.0)HorzA85-79L0%0.0
12-21Ohio (117.0)MACH67-66W100%0.0
12-28Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH97-92W100%0.0
12-31Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA54-69W100%0.0
1-2FIU (338.0)CUSAA66-69W100%0.0
1-5Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH82-80W100%0.0
1-7Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH67-79L0%0.0
1-12UAB (201.0)CUSAA72-54L0%0.0
1-14Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA91-76L0%0.0
1-21Marshall (112.0)CUSAA94-80L0%0.0
1-26UTEP (222.0)CUSAH65-62W100%0.0
1-28UTSA (264.0)CUSAH81-66W100%0.0
2-2Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA76-67L0%0.0
2-4Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA47-64W100%0.0
2-11Marshall (112.0)CUSAH79-84L0%0.0
2-16Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH52-78L0%0.0
2-19UAB (201.0)CUSAH76-64W100%0.0
2-23Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA83-77L0%0.0
2-25Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA67-53L0%0.0
3-2North Texas (339.0)CUSAH74-63W100%0.0
3-4Rice (167.0)CUSAH79-72W100%0.0
3-8UTSA (264.0)CUSAN52-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western KentuckyCUSA26.1226.1247.6647.66-1.22-1.22
MarshallCUSA3.973.9753.1253.120.250.25
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.863.8687.1087.102.862.86
UABCUSA3.813.8150.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA3.763.7658.6258.620.650.65
CharlotteCUSA3.753.7540.7440.74-0.69-0.69
UTSACUSA3.743.7437.9337.93-0.90-0.90
Louisiana TechCUSA2.302.3066.6766.670.770.77
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.262.2629.6329.63-0.92-0.92
RiceCUSA2.262.2666.6766.670.750.75
UTEPCUSA2.252.2546.6746.67-0.15-0.15
FIUCUSA2.222.2217.8617.86-1.43-1.43
North TexasCUSA2.202.2022.2222.22-1.22-1.22
Southern MissCUSA2.202.2025.0025.00-1.10-1.10
BelmontOVC1.761.7676.9276.920.950.95
Jacksonville St.OVC1.761.7658.0658.060.280.28
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.741.7432.1432.14-0.62-0.62
Austin PeayOVC1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Alabama St.SWAC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
Saint Mary'sWCC1.611.6187.1087.101.201.20
OhioMAC1.611.6165.5265.520.500.50
DetroitHorz1.561.5620.6920.69-0.92-0.92
Indiana St.MVC1.561.5634.4834.48-0.48-0.48
MissouriSEC1.561.5622.5822.58-0.86-0.86
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.561.563.453.45-1.45-1.45
UNLVMWC1.561.5632.2632.26-0.55-0.55
WashingtonP121.561.5626.6726.67-0.73-0.73
Tennessee St.OVC0.260.2653.5753.570.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1944.4444.44-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.11-0.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1329.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
LipscombASun0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.100.1096.9796.970.090.09
NevadaMWC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
PortlandWCC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01