live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Western Kentucky

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:125.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:191
Current SOS:191
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12125.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA66-49L0%0.0
11-16East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH57-50W100%0.0
11-21UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH73-58W100%0.0
11-23Samford (313.0)SCH67-64W100%0.0
11-26Marshall (276.0)CUSAA74-64L0%0.0
11-30Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH68-53W100%0.0
12-2Bowling Green (194.0)MACA74-62L0%0.0
12-7Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA60-69W100%0.0
12-14Louisville (19.0)AmerA79-63L0%0.0
12-18Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH68-65W100%0.0
12-21Murray St. (142.0)OVCH71-64W100%0.0
12-30Mississippi (94.0)SECH74-79L0%0.0
1-2South Alabama (280.0)SBA56-58W100%0.0
1-4Troy (285.0)SBA51-60W100%0.0
1-9Georgia St. (76.0)SBH54-77L0%0.0
1-16Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH83-87L0%0.0
1-18Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH82-77W100%0.0
1-23Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA51-69W100%0.0
1-25Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA70-79W100%0.0
1-30UT Arlington (199.0)SBH77-72W100%0.0
2-1Texas St. (307.0)SBH68-64W100%0.0
2-8Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA78-79W100%0.0
2-10Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA72-58L0%0.0
2-13Troy (285.0)SBH81-76W100%0.0
2-15South Alabama (280.0)SBH62-69L0%0.0
2-22Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH72-63W100%0.0
2-27Texas St. (307.0)SBA50-51W100%0.0
3-1UT Arlington (199.0)SBA80-73L0%0.0
3-6Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH75-72W100%0.0
3-8Georgia St. (76.0)SBA73-55L0%0.0
3-15Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBN72-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western KentuckySB26.4426.4461.1561.155.905.90
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.865.8667.8667.862.092.09
UT ArlingtonSB4.334.3342.8642.86-0.62-0.62
Georgia St.SB4.324.3272.4172.411.941.94
Arkansas Little RockSB4.304.3042.8642.86-0.61-0.61
Arkansas St.SB4.294.2957.1457.140.610.61
Louisiana MonroeSB4.254.2537.5037.50-1.06-1.06
TroySB4.244.2433.3333.33-1.41-1.41
South AlabamaSB4.184.1826.9226.92-1.93-1.93
Texas St.SB4.164.1622.2222.22-2.31-2.31
Southern MissCUSA1.831.8383.3383.331.221.22
SamfordSC1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
MarshallCUSA1.741.7426.6726.67-0.81-0.81
MississippiSEC1.731.7356.2556.250.220.22
LouisvilleAmer1.721.7284.8584.851.201.20
Murray St.OVC1.701.7061.5461.540.390.39
Southern IllinoisMVC1.691.6941.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
East Tennessee St.ASun1.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
Wichita St.MVC1.661.66100.00100.001.661.66
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
Bowling GreenMAC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Austin PeayOVC0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.220.2278.7978.790.130.13
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.220.2270.9770.970.090.09
HoustonAmer0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2020.6920.69-0.12-0.12
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
TexasB120.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1693.1093.100.140.14
ArkansasSEC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1414.8114.81-0.10-0.10
TulaneCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
FIUCUSA0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
RiceCUSA0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1124.0024.00-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
OklahomaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
ToledoMAC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
LSUSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01