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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Western Kentucky

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:173.5
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:140
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12108.10.38%
16-13127.83.41%
15-14147.314.91%
14-15165.029.29%
13-16181.230.48%
12-17197.317.11%
11-18212.93.97%
10-19228.60.44%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Belmont (84.0)OVCA90-85L0%0.0
11-21Stony Brook (46.0)AEH67-66W100%0.0
11-23Drake (305.3)MVCN81-79L0%0.0
11-24Central Michigan (132.1)MACN60-88W100%0.0
11-25Duquesne (113.9)A10N73-81L0%0.0
12-1Eastern Kentucky (197.1)OVCH86-84W100%0.0
12-5Xavier (7.9)BEA95-64L0%0.0
12-13Indiana St. (146.9)MVCH75-62W100%0.0
12-16Alabama A&M (295.8)SWACH79-70W100%0.0
12-19Louisville (16.1)ACCA78-56L0%0.0
12-22Detroit (208.4)HorzH79-74W100%0.0
1-3Marshall (127.9)CUSAA94-76L0%0.0
1-7FIU (232.8)CUSAH72-75L0%0.0
1-9Florida Atlantic (280.4)CUSAH86-82W100%0.0
1-14Rice (292.4)CUSAA83-73L0%0.0
1-16North Texas (300.7)CUSAA76-81W100%0.0
1-21Old Dominion (140.1)CUSAA68-62L0%0.0
1-23Charlotte (237.2)CUSAA88-71L0%0.0
1-28UAB (87.4)CUSAH69-62W100%0.0
1-30Middle Tennessee (78.9)CUSAH64-66L0%0.0
2-4UTSA (341.8)CUSAA71-83W100%0.0
2-6UTEP (237.0)CUSAA93-89L0%0.0
2-13Marshall (127.9)CUSAH0-052%0.6
2-18Old Dominion (140.1)CUSAH0-039%-3.0
2-20Charlotte (237.2)CUSAH0-069%5.5
2-25Middle Tennessee (78.9)CUSAA0-026%-7.1
2-27UAB (87.4)CUSAA0-019%-9.6
3-3Southern Miss (298.0)CUSAH0-084%11.0
3-5Louisiana Tech (129.9)CUSAH0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western KentuckyCUSA26.1326.1445.4543.80-2.38-3.24
MarshallCUSA2.834.1847.8349.61-0.12-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.834.1170.0068.051.131.49
UABCUSA2.794.0986.3682.202.032.64
CharlotteCUSA2.634.0931.8239.24-0.95-0.88
Old DominionCUSA2.634.0954.5561.560.240.95
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.722.4623.8128.16-1.43-1.07
FIUCUSA2.682.4338.1043.34-0.64-0.32
North TexasCUSA2.632.4235.0034.17-0.79-0.77
RiceCUSA2.632.4225.0027.21-1.32-1.10
UTEPCUSA2.692.3750.0050.280.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.412.3771.4369.490.180.92
UTSACUSA2.682.3714.2914.11-1.92-1.70
Southern MissCUSA0.412.3631.5832.61-0.15-0.82
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.421.8754.1751.980.200.07
BelmontOVC2.371.8465.2265.350.720.57
DrakeMVC2.371.7818.1820.93-1.51-1.04
Indiana St.MVC2.371.7854.5553.810.220.14
Alabama A&MSWAC2.271.7241.1847.48-0.40-0.09
Central MichiganMAC2.271.7252.6353.070.120.11
DetroitHorz2.271.7250.0047.620.00-0.08
DuquesneA102.271.7261.9054.920.540.17
LouisvilleACC2.271.7281.8276.991.450.93
Stony BrookAE2.271.7285.0085.881.591.24
XavierBE2.271.7290.9183.841.861.17
Jacksonville St.OVC0.260.2425.0024.36-0.13-0.12
Southern IllinoisMVC0.260.2172.0070.510.110.08
Georgia St.SB0.150.2157.8956.100.020.03
Morehead St.OVC0.140.2050.0052.350.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.260.1875.0076.240.130.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1866.6762.620.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.200.1854.1750.930.020.00
ToledoMAC0.110.1659.0960.070.020.03
Ball St.MAC0.160.1563.6459.240.040.03
Murray St.OVC0.210.1545.4549.70-0.02-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.200.1581.8283.040.130.10
South AlabamaSB0.160.1533.3334.19-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.1543.4842.62-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1554.1755.080.020.02
Saint LouisA100.270.1536.3633.47-0.07-0.05
AuburnSEC0.150.1540.9136.61-0.03-0.04
VCUA100.160.1573.9173.900.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1440.9143.53-0.03-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.1470.8369.500.060.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.1347.6252.67-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1345.4554.11-0.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1216.6720.13-0.11-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1230.0035.77-0.05-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1259.0959.640.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.1252.3847.040.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1236.8441.44-0.04-0.02
TroySB0.100.1223.8126.67-0.05-0.06
BradleyMVC0.100.1212.5012.85-0.07-0.09
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1239.1337.74-0.02-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1272.7376.360.040.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.1247.8350.15-0.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1266.6770.540.050.05
AkronMAC0.160.1281.8280.030.100.07
CreightonBE0.110.1262.5059.780.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.1268.1866.670.030.04
PittsburghACC0.160.1276.1968.220.080.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1182.6181.140.100.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1140.9149.27-0.03-0.00
DavidsonA100.150.1160.0057.960.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1154.1752.340.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.1015.7920.03-0.04-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.109.0917.09-0.05-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.060.1065.0066.790.020.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1036.8438.39-0.03-0.02
TulaneAmer0.110.0933.3332.34-0.04-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.160.0945.8346.66-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.160.0921.7424.67-0.09-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.0921.7422.74-0.09-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.095.007.23-0.09-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0933.3335.09-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.110.0924.0026.41-0.05-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.160.0956.5257.000.020.01
HartfordAE0.100.0926.0926.50-0.05-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.0913.6415.80-0.11-0.06
HofstraCAA0.160.0965.2264.220.050.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0963.1658.790.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.160.0931.8230.48-0.06-0.03
LipscombASun0.150.0925.0029.27-0.07-0.04
ButlerBE0.100.0969.5767.230.040.03
DePaulBE0.150.0934.7834.45-0.05-0.03
MarquetteBE0.150.0962.5056.260.040.01
BuffaloMAC0.110.0959.0958.880.020.02
OhioMAC0.100.0961.9059.430.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.0971.4369.840.050.03
DaytonA100.100.0986.3682.380.070.06
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0943.4842.01-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.100.0952.1750.420.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0925.0033.21-0.02-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.0947.8346.88-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.100.0943.4842.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.0954.1749.270.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.100.0852.1751.590.000.00
MichiganB100.100.0869.5766.220.040.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0856.5256.610.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0854.5554.490.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0882.6178.890.030.05
West VirginiaB120.090.0882.6179.550.060.05
Miami FLACC0.050.0881.8276.740.030.04
SyracuseACC0.050.0866.6762.560.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.0720.8323.63-0.07-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0675.0075.850.030.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.000.000.01
MaineAE0.050.0634.7834.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0655.0053.180.010.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.970.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.110.0631.8232.67-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0656.5260.000.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0654.1757.520.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.0630.4332.35-0.04-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.8760.770.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.0639.1341.12-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.110.0652.3845.700.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.860.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0665.2266.160.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3335.48-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0659.0953.030.010.00
BYUWCC0.100.0666.6769.500.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.110.0665.0069.270.030.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0669.5765.850.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0647.6252.07-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0637.5040.52-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0621.0523.58-0.06-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.0656.5257.280.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0645.0049.39-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0617.3920.66-0.06-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0615.0015.35-0.07-0.04
Texas St.SB0.100.0638.8938.51-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.0660.8760.240.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.0669.5764.890.040.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0621.7423.40-0.05-0.03
Michigan St.B100.100.0683.3383.020.070.04
North FloridaASun0.100.0665.2267.140.030.02
SamfordSC0.100.0639.1341.32-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0628.5732.71-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.0633.3334.94-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0678.2674.420.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.11-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0665.2268.610.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0675.0070.940.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0647.6244.99-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0673.9169.830.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0650.0053.300.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.0019.66-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0671.4368.970.020.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0626.0923.72-0.05-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0670.5975.550.020.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0622.7323.25-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.9686.370.040.04
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.9171.550.050.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.20-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0628.5729.65-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.5213.52-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.000.0673.9170.040.000.02
FurmanSC0.050.0652.1753.310.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.690.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0630.4335.11-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0620.0026.74-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0624.0024.57-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.15-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0679.1776.550.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0633.3331.31-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0682.6178.050.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0665.2261.070.020.01
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.89-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.210.020.01
LehighPat0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.15-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.250.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0363.6462.140.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.710.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0338.1040.73-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0363.6459.440.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0317.6529.24-0.04-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0331.5831.80-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.660.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.880.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.660.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.220.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.930.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0356.2556.100.010.00
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.580.030.02
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.750.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0365.2259.020.000.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0355.0054.530.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.8763.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.04-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0358.3354.160.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.420.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.69-0.03-0.01
TexasB120.050.0369.5762.630.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.500.030.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.450.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0370.8370.840.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.410.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.36-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.440.010.01
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.290.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0334.7834.15-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.45-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8641.97-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0340.9139.36-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.36-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0327.7834.50-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0335.0035.98-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.400.020.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.060.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.04-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0336.3632.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.50-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.37-0.01-0.00