live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Washington St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:186.4
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:41
Current Record:8-15
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:1-11
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:146
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16122.40.07%
12-17139.51.02%
11-18156.46.93%
10-19173.525.24%
9-20189.742.31%
8-21204.424.42%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Arizona (325.2)BSkyH82-70W100%0.0
11-20Idaho St. (265.6)BSkyH85-67W100%0.0
11-28Texas Southern (193.8)SWACH77-65W100%0.0
12-2Gonzaga (48.8)WCCH60-69L0%0.0
12-6Portland St. (288.9)BSkyH91-67W100%0.0
12-10Idaho (223.1)BSkyA78-74L0%0.0
12-13UTEP (221.5)CUSAH84-68W100%0.0
12-18Texas St. (276.9)SBH78-73W100%0.0
12-22Oklahoma (3.0)B12N60-88L0%0.0
12-23Northern Iowa (113.4)MVCN63-59L0%0.0
12-25New Mexico (104.5)MWCN82-59W100%0.0
1-1USC (23.9)P12H77-90L0%0.0
1-3UCLA (69.9)P12H85-78W100%0.0
1-9Washington (65.7)P12H95-99L0%0.0
1-14Arizona St. (71.2)P12A84-73L0%0.0
1-16Arizona (25.7)P12A90-66L0%0.0
1-21Utah (25.7)P12H71-92L0%0.0
1-23Colorado (43.6)P12H70-75L0%0.0
1-28USC (23.9)P12A81-71L0%0.0
1-30UCLA (69.9)P12A83-50L0%0.0
2-3Arizona (25.7)P12H64-79L0%0.0
2-6Arizona St. (71.2)P12H55-67L0%0.0
2-11Colorado (43.6)P12A88-81L0%0.0
2-14Utah (25.7)P12A0-010%-14.0
2-18Stanford (97.6)P12H0-046%-1.2
2-21California (35.8)P12H0-023%-7.9
2-24Oregon (6.4)P12A0-07%-16.3
2-28Oregon St. (48.4)P12A0-017%-10.5
3-2Washington (65.7)P12A0-015%-11.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Washington St.P1226.5226.2425.2424.54-13.13-13.36
WashingtonP123.114.2760.8757.840.680.67
ArizonaP124.894.2578.2677.272.772.32
USCP124.974.2572.7369.152.261.63
UCLAP124.934.2254.5553.190.450.27
Arizona St.P124.804.1952.1750.430.210.04
UtahP122.414.1769.5766.630.941.39
ColoradoP124.444.1468.1863.121.611.09
CaliforniaP120.452.5366.6764.380.150.73
OregonP120.632.5279.1776.660.371.35
Oregon St.P120.632.5263.6457.860.170.40
StanfordP120.452.5247.6243.69-0.02-0.32
Northern ArizonaBSky2.451.9610.0012.55-1.96-1.47
Idaho St.BSky2.381.9450.0049.830.00-0.01
IdahoBSky2.421.9454.5553.730.220.14
GonzagaWCC2.451.9278.2676.711.381.03
Portland St.BSky2.321.8831.5837.30-0.86-0.48
New MexicoMWC2.361.8460.8762.730.510.47
UTEPCUSA2.231.7656.5256.080.290.21
Texas St.SB2.221.7542.1140.36-0.35-0.34
Northern IowaMVC2.221.7554.1753.910.180.14
Texas SouthernSWAC2.221.7547.6256.05-0.110.21
OklahomaB122.171.7286.3682.021.581.10
Sacramento St.BSky0.290.3040.0045.19-0.06-0.03
MontanaBSky0.300.2860.0062.700.060.07
Southern UtahBSky0.240.2714.2914.92-0.17-0.19
UNLVMWC0.360.2552.1755.080.020.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.340.2427.2726.46-0.15-0.11
BYUWCC0.270.2368.0070.260.100.09
Boise St.MWC0.270.2360.8760.430.060.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2345.4551.69-0.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.210.2266.6769.760.070.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.210.2254.5555.550.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.250.2145.0048.15-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.140.2066.6762.200.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.260.1943.4844.81-0.03-0.02
PortlandWCC0.290.1838.4638.04-0.07-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.290.1866.6767.660.100.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.290.1731.8230.08-0.10-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1773.9176.700.090.09
MonmouthMAAC0.270.1780.7781.890.170.11
KansasB120.140.1482.6179.210.090.08
Iowa St.B120.230.1470.8367.960.100.05
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1454.5552.530.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.1469.5770.090.040.06
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1463.6461.560.040.03
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1447.8351.93-0.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1386.3684.240.110.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.210.1214.2915.47-0.15-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1233.3330.63-0.03-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1260.0062.260.030.03
NevadaMWC0.100.1257.1455.350.010.01
UTSACUSA0.150.1213.0412.96-0.11-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.1281.8281.780.030.08
SMUAmer0.090.1286.9682.930.070.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.1222.2231.13-0.11-0.04
RiceCUSA0.090.1227.2728.15-0.04-0.05
PacificWCC0.130.1223.8125.99-0.07-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.180.1258.3360.910.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.140.1230.4328.20-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.1233.3332.04-0.06-0.04
BaylorB120.100.1173.9168.450.050.04
TCUB120.090.1145.8339.36-0.01-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.1160.8755.310.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.140.1143.4837.80-0.02-0.03
BradleyMVC0.170.1112.0011.95-0.13-0.09
CreightonBE0.180.1164.0062.070.050.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1165.2268.610.060.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1172.2275.710.080.06
Cal PolyBW0.180.1128.5734.10-0.08-0.04
KentuckySEC0.180.1175.0072.620.090.05
TroySB0.100.0922.7324.37-0.06-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0940.9138.83-0.01-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0968.1871.340.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0941.6741.18-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.140.0959.0961.290.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.099.0917.13-0.13-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0916.6719.49-0.10-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0942.3146.12-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.140.0931.8232.47-0.05-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.140.0947.6249.27-0.01-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0940.0040.34-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0937.5042.32-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0950.0054.220.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0938.1037.68-0.01-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.0973.0872.610.060.04
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0923.8122.85-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0975.0075.350.070.04
AuburnSEC0.140.0939.1335.44-0.03-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0945.8343.78-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.0918.1821.06-0.09-0.05
SeattleWAC0.050.0945.4543.98-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.130.0883.3378.390.090.05
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0625.0028.14-0.05-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0642.8641.32-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.110.0655.0053.660.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0645.4549.06-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0636.3636.29-0.01-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0666.6764.730.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0643.4850.67-0.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.730.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0682.6183.030.000.04
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.850.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.87-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.29-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0624.0025.68-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.0912.25-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.090.0620.8323.28-0.05-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0675.0071.810.020.03
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0672.0073.080.020.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0639.1342.98-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0626.0927.89-0.02-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.0018.12-0.03-0.04
HawaiiBW0.090.0685.0083.450.060.04
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0656.0054.080.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.650.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0658.3356.290.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0672.7370.510.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0682.6177.600.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0620.0022.24-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0637.5037.41-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0658.3358.580.020.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0665.3865.500.010.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.30-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0636.8437.30-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0650.0046.760.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.340.010.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0630.0031.76-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0665.2262.360.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.100.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0655.5652.480.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0641.6742.39-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.040.0656.5255.820.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.16-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.090.0668.0066.640.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0650.0049.890.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0625.0026.38-0.04-0.03
LafayettePat0.090.0620.8321.68-0.05-0.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0664.0057.890.020.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0633.3330.27-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0048.970.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0617.6526.60-0.06-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0672.0069.130.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0641.6739.90-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0643.4842.54-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.090.0687.5081.840.070.04
YaleIvy0.090.0675.0075.100.050.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0383.3382.090.040.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.410.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0350.0052.940.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0327.2727.81-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0330.0031.18-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3334.02-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0356.5257.690.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.17-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0360.8759.830.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0334.7834.94-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0370.8370.130.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.680.010.00
SamfordSC0.050.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.120.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0338.1035.34-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0360.8755.980.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0323.8129.52-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.62-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.95-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.070.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.150.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0358.3359.310.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0368.1867.730.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0343.4843.76-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0364.0064.470.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0358.3363.160.000.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0368.0064.070.020.01
UABCUSA0.050.0383.3379.820.030.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0369.5770.020.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.07-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0362.5056.990.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0314.2920.63-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0361.9058.180.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0341.6739.50-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.900.030.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0383.3378.460.000.02