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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Washington St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:169.0
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:83
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18169.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UTEP (78.0)CUSAA65-52L0%0.0
11-17TCU (131.0)B12A81-54L0%0.0
11-21Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH80-68W100%0.0
11-27UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWN71-43L0%0.0
11-28Rice (247.0)CUSAN76-74W100%0.0
11-29Missouri St. (246.0)MVCN89-84W100%0.0
12-3Idaho (267.0)BSkyH71-77L0%0.0
12-6UTSA (237.0)CUSAH91-71W100%0.0
12-10Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA81-66L0%0.0
12-13Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA76-67L0%0.0
12-21San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH82-53W100%0.0
12-28UC Davis (75.0)BWH90-83W100%0.0
1-2Stanford (59.0)P12A71-56L0%0.0
1-4California (95.0)P12A66-69W100%0.0
1-10Washington (126.0)P12A77-80W100%0.0
1-15Oregon (27.0)P12H108-99W100%0.0
1-17Oregon St. (133.0)P12H47-62L0%0.0
1-21Utah (20.0)P12A86-64L0%0.0
1-24Colorado (116.0)P12A90-58L0%0.0
1-29California (95.0)P12H67-76L0%0.0
1-31Stanford (59.0)P12H89-88W100%0.0
2-5Oregon St. (133.0)P12A55-50L0%0.0
2-8Oregon (27.0)P12A95-72L0%0.0
2-13Arizona St. (102.0)P12H74-71W100%0.0
2-15Arizona (5.0)P12H59-86L0%0.0
2-22Washington (126.0)P12H84-87L0%0.0
2-25USC (207.0)P12A66-70W100%0.0
3-1UCLA (48.0)P12A72-67L0%0.0
3-5Utah (20.0)P12H59-67L0%0.0
3-7Colorado (116.0)P12H96-91W100%0.0
3-11California (95.0)P12N84-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Washington St.P1226.2626.2640.1540.15-5.18-5.18
CaliforniaP125.475.4753.3353.330.360.36
WashingtonP124.094.0951.7251.720.140.14
OregonP124.014.0174.1974.191.941.94
StanfordP123.983.9860.0060.000.800.80
ColoradoP123.963.9646.6746.67-0.26-0.26
Oregon St.P123.963.9650.0050.000.000.00
UtahP123.953.9572.4172.411.771.77
ArizonaP122.622.6290.9190.912.142.14
UCLAP122.502.5059.3859.380.470.47
USCP122.472.4738.7138.71-0.56-0.56
Arizona St.P122.442.4454.8454.840.240.24
UTEPCUSA1.801.8067.7467.740.640.64
RiceCUSA1.771.7735.7135.71-0.51-0.51
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.771.7755.1755.170.180.18
UTSACUSA1.741.7444.4444.44-0.19-0.19
UC DavisBW1.721.7282.1482.141.111.11
San Jose St.MWC1.721.720.000.00-1.72-1.72
GonzagaWCC1.711.7193.7593.751.501.50
IdahoBSky1.701.7037.0437.04-0.44-0.44
Santa ClaraWCC1.691.6937.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Idaho St.BSky1.671.6718.5218.52-1.05-1.05
TCUB121.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
Missouri St.MVC1.611.6132.1432.14-0.58-0.58
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.270.2774.1974.190.130.13
Cal PolyBW0.260.2640.7440.74-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.260.2671.8871.880.110.11
Loyola MarymountWCC0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2122.5822.58-0.12-0.12
UNLVMWC0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
TexasB120.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1981.2581.250.120.12
HawaiiBW0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.07-0.07
WyomingMWC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Portland St.BSky0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
DePaulBE0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Montana St.BSky0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
FIUCUSA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.130.000.00-0.13-0.13
PrincetonIvy0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
OklahomaB120.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
UABCUSA0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00