Washington St.

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	196.0
Current RPI:	196
Expected SOS:	97
Current SOS:	97
Current Record:	13-19
Expected Record:	13-19
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-1
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	173
Expected OOC SOS:	259

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-19	196.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	88-69	W	100%
11-14	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	72-49	W	100%
11-16	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	58-56	L	0%
11-19	Kansas (5.0)	B12	N	78-41	L	0%
11-20	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	N	54-55	L	0%
11-24	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	66-38	W	100%
11-28	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	64-55	W	100%
12-1	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	72-60	W	100%
12-5	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	H	69-71	L	0%
12-9	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	59-50	W	100%
12-13	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	52-41	W	100%
12-21	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	H	65-54	W	100%
12-29	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	74-39	W	100%
1-5	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	63-68	L	0%
1-9	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	78-67	L	0%
1-12	California (54.0)	P12	A	67-54	L	0%
1-16	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	75-65	W	100%
1-19	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	49-58	L	0%
1-23	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	68-61	L	0%
1-26	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	68-71	W	100%
1-31	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	59-63	L	0%
2-2	Arizona (16.0)	P12	H	65-79	L	0%
2-7	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	72-68	L	0%
2-9	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	76-62	L	0%
2-13	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	66-67	L	0%
2-16	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	77-79	L	0%
2-20	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	69-57	L	0%
2-23	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	73-56	L	0%
3-3	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	72-68	L	0%
3-6	UCLA (26.0)	P12	H	73-61	W	100%
3-9	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	76-51	W	100%
3-13	Washington (88.0)	P12	N	64-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Washington St.	P12	26.22	26.22	32.09	32.09	-9.39	-9.39
Washington	P12	5.43	5.43	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	3.97	3.97	75.00	75.00	1.99	1.99
Oregon	P12	3.95	3.95	75.00	75.00	1.97	1.97
Arizona St.	P12	3.89	3.89	61.29	61.29	0.88	0.88
Arizona	P12	3.87	3.87	76.67	76.67	2.06	2.06
Southern California	P12	3.82	3.82	43.33	43.33	-0.51	-0.51
Oregon St.	P12	3.80	3.80	43.33	43.33	-0.51	-0.51
Colorado	P12	2.41	2.41	64.52	64.52	0.70	0.70
Utah	P12	2.41	2.41	43.33	43.33	-0.32	-0.32
California	P12	2.31	2.31	63.33	63.33	0.62	0.62
Stanford	P12	2.31	2.31	54.84	54.84	0.22	0.22
Idaho St.	BSky	1.74	1.74	17.86	17.86	-1.12	-1.12
Pepperdine	WCC	1.72	1.72	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.71	1.71	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Portland	WCC	1.69	1.69	31.03	31.03	-0.64	-0.64
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.69	1.69	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.67	1.67	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
Gonzaga	WCC	1.67	1.67	93.55	93.55	1.45	1.45
Kansas	B12	1.64	1.64	84.85	84.85	1.14	1.14
Fresno St.	MWC	1.63	1.63	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Idaho	WAC	1.61	1.61	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Utah Valley	GWC	1.61	1.61	37.04	37.04	-0.42	-0.42
Buffalo	MAC	1.56	1.56	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
Texas A&M	SEC	1.56	1.56	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
St. Mary's	WCC	0.23	0.23	81.25	81.25	0.14	0.14
San Diego	WCC	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Portland St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	23.08	23.08	-0.12	-0.12
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.22	0.22	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.21	0.21	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.21	0.21	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.21	0.21	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Colorado St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Seattle	WAC	0.20	0.20	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Long Beach St.	BW	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.19	0.19	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Brigham Young	WCC	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.18	0.18	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.16	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Grambling	SWAC	0.15	0.15	0.00	0.00	-0.15	-0.15
Central Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
UC Irvine	BW	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.14	0.14	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Montana	BSky	0.13	0.13	79.31	79.31	0.08	0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Southern Utah	BSky	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Denver	WAC	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.02	0.02	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00