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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Washington St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:227.6
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:119
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:259
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14108.00.03%
14-15128.20.29%
13-16145.80.78%
12-17164.92.90%
11-18184.17.64%
10-19201.514.47%
9-20220.221.99%
8-21236.622.63%
7-22252.516.75%
6-23266.79.26%
5-24279.62.73%
4-25288.60.48%
3-26299.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Montana St. (212.6)BSkyH69-65W100%0.0
11-18Creighton (23.8)BEN103-77L0%0.0
11-19Montana (241.5)BSkyN87-63W100%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (143.4)MVCN79-88L0%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (192.3)MWCH76-88L0%0.0
11-30Utah Valley (141.7)WACH83-76W100%0.0
12-3New Orleans (252.7)SlndH54-70L0%0.0
12-7Idaho (230.0)BSkyH0-063%4.0
12-10Kansas St. (87.0)B12N0-012%-13.9
12-17Santa Clara (246.4)WCCH0-064%4.2
12-21Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyH0-087%13.3
1-1Washington (106.9)P12A0-013%-13.6
1-4Oregon St. (264.9)P12H0-062%3.7
1-7Oregon (31.0)P12H0-011%-14.7
1-12Stanford (52.1)P12A0-010%-15.7
1-14California (61.1)P12A0-09%-15.9
1-18Utah (94.3)P12H0-025%-8.0
1-21Colorado (75.1)P12H0-021%-9.8
1-26Arizona (29.2)P12A0-05%-19.7
1-29Arizona St. (161.2)P12A0-028%-7.1
2-1UCLA (16.9)P12H0-06%-18.6
2-4USC (38.7)P12H0-015%-12.2
2-9Utah (94.3)P12A0-012%-14.2
2-12Colorado (75.1)P12A0-09%-16.1
2-16Arizona (29.2)P12H0-013%-13.4
2-18Arizona St. (161.2)P12H0-047%-0.9
2-26Washington (106.9)P12H0-027%-7.3
3-1USC (38.7)P12A0-06%-18.5
3-4UCLA (16.9)P12A0-02%-24.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Washington St.P1228.7326.2631.4322.89-10.67-14.24
WashingtonP120.004.2657.1450.150.000.01
USCP121.164.26100.0075.481.162.17
ArizonaP120.004.2377.7868.880.001.60
Arizona St.P120.004.2355.5636.160.00-1.17
UCLAP120.004.20100.0086.010.003.02
UtahP121.024.2080.0056.280.610.53
ColoradoP120.004.1875.0060.820.000.91
StanfordP120.002.5766.6757.470.000.38
OregonP120.002.5775.0072.250.001.14
Oregon St.P120.002.5425.0023.13-0.00-1.37
CaliforniaP120.002.5487.5063.870.000.70
MontanaBSky7.142.0328.5750.32-3.060.01
Montana St.BSky7.141.9750.0058.490.000.34
IdahoBSky0.601.9350.0053.750.000.14
Sacramento St.BSky0.001.930.0022.65-0.00-1.05
San Jose St.MWC7.141.8140.0038.40-1.43-0.42
Santa ClaraWCC0.601.8133.3332.67-0.20-0.63
Utah ValleyWAC7.141.7966.6760.092.380.36
New OrleansSlnd7.141.7825.0039.38-3.57-0.38
CreightonBE7.141.78100.0075.737.140.92
Kansas St.B120.001.7288.8955.680.000.20
Loyola ChicagoMVC7.141.7266.6757.362.380.25
Weber St.BSky0.000.2716.6749.78-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2711.1120.27-0.00-0.16
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2771.4355.680.000.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.2740.0043.88-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.510.2412.5029.77-0.38-0.10
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2416.6740.32-0.00-0.05
PortlandWCC0.600.2357.1450.730.090.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.220.0025.31-0.00-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.000.210.0031.31-0.00-0.08
BYUWCC0.510.2162.5067.080.130.07
GonzagaWCC0.510.20100.0092.200.510.17
SeattleWAC0.000.1816.6738.83-0.00-0.04
XavierBE0.000.1887.5070.880.000.08
ButlerBE0.000.18100.0074.830.000.09
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1871.4360.090.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.510.1860.0069.260.100.07
San DiegoWCC0.000.1737.5031.15-0.00-0.06
TCUB120.000.17100.0060.950.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1771.4365.470.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1685.7153.770.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.1550.0045.660.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.1533.3355.64-0.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1577.7871.770.000.07
UNLVMWC0.000.1562.5042.780.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.450.1566.6753.730.150.01
PacificWCC0.000.1542.8645.98-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1442.8633.51-0.00-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.000.1442.8641.13-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.140.0038.43-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1212.5033.18-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1250.0064.910.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1212.5030.51-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1242.8658.24-0.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1275.0069.680.000.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1257.1448.110.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1257.1443.930.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.450.1250.0046.820.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.600.12100.0089.590.600.09
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1260.0058.900.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1257.1444.830.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1275.0054.480.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1233.3352.49-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1237.5050.92-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.1150.0038.730.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1144.4453.29-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.110.0033.71-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6735.90-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.1187.5082.220.000.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1040.0054.81-0.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.1042.8650.57-0.000.00
DenverSum1.110.1042.8645.65-0.16-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1042.8650.33-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.450.1055.5649.660.05-0.00
UTSACUSA0.510.1025.0029.90-0.26-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0950.0056.890.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0925.0040.17-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0942.8650.98-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.710.0971.4354.010.310.01
TulaneAmer0.710.0912.5023.82-0.54-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.0962.5058.130.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.960.0937.5037.96-0.24-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0966.6766.650.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC1.400.0975.0050.980.700.00
Oral RobertsSum0.960.090.0022.75-0.96-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.0955.5647.600.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0925.0043.29-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0988.8977.470.000.05
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.070.000.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0844.4438.15-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0720.0022.08-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0017.16-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0017.92-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0742.8637.05-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.44-0.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0720.0022.88-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0057.950.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.510.0671.4363.080.220.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0642.8640.38-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.710.0650.0037.700.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0637.5025.74-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0020.21-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.820.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.420.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.510.060.0032.29-0.51-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.56-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.43-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0671.4337.680.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.83-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0045.82-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0677.7864.250.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0076.970.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0644.4436.20-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7175.250.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.740.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.63-0.000.02
MississippiSEC0.890.0675.0047.990.45-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.700.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4362.990.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0677.7865.840.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0660.0058.780.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0662.5044.840.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.030.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0677.7877.640.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.380.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5061.660.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.510.0312.5037.11-0.38-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8644.89-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.510.0312.5030.17-0.38-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.510.030.0036.38-0.51-0.01
RiceCUSA0.510.0375.0070.570.260.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.510.0342.8645.34-0.07-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5052.060.000.00
AkronMAC0.450.0371.4368.930.190.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.450.0333.3352.03-0.150.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0362.5050.630.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.200.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.92-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.450.0342.8645.85-0.06-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0355.5646.770.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02
WisconsinB100.450.0377.7876.550.250.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3351.98-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0337.5048.85-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0045.49-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.33-0.00-0.02