Washington St.

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	164.6
Current RPI:	160
Expected SOS:	144
Current SOS:	142
Current Record:	11-11
Expected Record:	14-15
Current Conf Record:	4-7
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.90%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-4
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	154
Expected OOC SOS:	278

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-11	99.6	0.07%
17-12	114.2	1.75%
16-13	128.6	8.29%
15-14	144.9	22.45%
14-15	163.5	31.56%
13-16	182.9	25.14%
12-17	201.1	9.47%
11-18	218.0	1.26%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Gonzaga (27.9)	WCC	A	89-81	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	H	79-68	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Portland (215.5)	WCC	A	73-83	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Oklahoma (89.8)	B12	N	59-74	L	0%	0.0
11-25	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	N	72-62	L	0%	0.0
11-27	UC Riverside (257.6)	BW	N	64-63	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	69-37	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	H	75-49	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	A	64-66	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Santa Clara (271.9)	WCC	H	93-55	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Pepperdine (250.7)	WCC	N	67-56	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Oregon (86.8)	P12	N	75-92	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	N	81-76	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Utah (272.4)	P12	A	62-60	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Colorado (75.2)	P12	A	71-60	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Washington (69.1)	P12	A	75-65	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Stanford (89.9)	P12	H	81-69	W	100%	0.0
1-21	California (42.4)	P12	H	77-75	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	85-61	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	A	71-67	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Southern California (232.8)	P12	H	60-53	W	100%	0.0
2-4	UCLA (109.2)	P12	H	60-63	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	A	0-0		23%	-7.9
2-11	Oregon (86.8)	P12	A	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-16	Arizona (75.8)	P12	H	0-0		37%	-3.6
2-18	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	H	0-0		81%	9.6
2-25	Washington (69.1)	P12	H	0-0		45%	-1.4
3-1	UCLA (109.2)	P12	A	0-0		22%	-8.3
3-3	Southern California (232.8)	P12	A	0-0		55%	1.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Washington St.	P12	26.13	26.26	50.00	48.64	0.00	-0.72
Washington	P12	2.82	4.28	68.18	65.75	1.03	1.35
Arizona St.	P12	2.88	4.26	27.27	29.43	-1.31	-1.75
Southern California	P12	2.88	4.26	26.09	25.31	-1.38	-2.10
UCLA	P12	2.87	4.25	52.38	54.50	0.14	0.38
Arizona	P12	2.83	4.23	65.22	67.66	0.86	1.49
Oregon	P12	2.82	4.17	68.18	63.18	1.03	1.10
Oregon St.	P12	2.82	4.17	66.67	65.00	0.94	1.25
Utah	P12	2.82	2.56	14.29	11.98	-2.01	-1.95
California	P12	2.77	2.53	78.26	77.09	1.57	1.37
Stanford	P12	2.77	2.53	72.73	70.65	1.26	1.05
Colorado	P12	2.77	2.53	65.00	61.26	0.83	0.57
Pepperdine	WCC	2.58	2.02	33.33	35.13	-0.86	-0.60
Gonzaga	WCC	2.63	2.00	80.95	80.83	1.63	1.23
Portland	WCC	2.64	2.00	22.73	22.51	-1.44	-1.10
Santa Clara	WCC	2.58	1.97	30.00	27.32	-1.03	-0.89
Eastern Washington	BSky	2.59	1.97	42.86	45.67	-0.37	-0.17
New Mexico	MWC	2.42	1.87	80.95	80.35	1.50	1.13
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.43	1.81	31.58	34.53	-0.89	-0.56
Idaho	WAC	2.38	1.81	50.00	52.97	0.00	0.11
Oklahoma	B12	2.38	1.79	57.14	53.14	0.34	0.11
UC Riverside	BW	2.32	1.78	40.00	37.42	-0.46	-0.45
Grambling	SWAC	2.27	1.72	15.79	16.31	-1.56	-1.16
Montana St.	BSky	0.47	0.34	45.00	41.76	-0.05	-0.06
Brigham Young	WCC	0.31	0.34	75.00	76.00	0.15	0.17
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.31	0.31	59.09	57.76	0.06	0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.31	0.28	90.91	87.74	0.25	0.21
San Diego	WCC	0.31	0.28	33.33	33.82	-0.10	-0.09
Portland St.	BSky	0.15	0.28	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.37	0.27	13.64	16.14	-0.27	-0.18
Fresno St.	WAC	0.36	0.27	39.13	44.52	-0.08	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.32	0.25	70.00	73.28	0.13	0.12
San Francisco	WCC	0.31	0.25	56.52	53.77	0.04	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.37	0.24	0.00	5.37	-0.37	-0.22
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.26	0.24	21.05	22.46	-0.15	-0.13
Nevada	WAC	0.31	0.24	80.95	76.42	0.19	0.13
San Diego St.	MWC	0.25	0.23	85.71	78.05	0.18	0.13
Idaho St.	BSky	0.21	0.22	33.33	33.88	-0.07	-0.07
Seattle	ind	0.20	0.21	23.53	33.28	-0.11	-0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.25	0.21	55.56	58.01	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.27	0.19	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.26	0.19	80.00	76.84	0.16	0.10
San Jose St.	WAC	0.21	0.19	27.27	26.95	-0.10	-0.09
UC Irvine	BW	0.15	0.18	35.00	35.26	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.20	0.18	69.57	68.90	0.08	0.07
Texas	B12	0.10	0.17	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.20	0.17	78.26	78.39	0.11	0.10
Hawaii	WAC	0.21	0.15	57.14	53.12	0.03	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.21	0.15	42.86	41.13	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.16	0.15	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.20	0.15	77.27	77.67	0.11	0.08
Texas Christian	MWC	0.16	0.15	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.14	82.61	81.44	0.10	0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.17	0.13	30.00	31.54	-0.07	-0.05
Pacific	BW	0.21	0.12	35.00	37.47	-0.06	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.12	65.00	66.70	0.05	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.12	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.16	0.12	25.00	28.52	-0.08	-0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.12	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.12	66.67	60.80	0.05	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.12	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.15	0.12	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.11	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.11	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.09	71.43	73.35	0.05	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.09	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.09	19.05	25.52	-0.06	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.09	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.09	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.09	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.09	31.82	25.98	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.09	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.06
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.04	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.11	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.06	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.05
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.00	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.01