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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Washington St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:224.0
Current RPI:224
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:71
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:259



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21224.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH62-56W100%0.0
11-16Lamar (344.0)SlndH84-64W100%0.0
11-21Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA90-74L0%0.0
11-24TCU (212.0)B12H62-64L0%0.0
11-28Butler (150.0)BEN69-76L0%0.0
11-29Purdue (145.0)B10N69-54W100%0.0
12-1Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10N72-67L0%0.0
12-7Idaho (238.0)WACA66-67W100%0.0
12-15Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH78-61W100%0.0
12-21UTEP (103.0)CUSAH51-64L0%0.0
12-28Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH85-48W100%0.0
1-2Arizona (2.0)P12A60-25L0%0.0
1-5Arizona St. (44.0)P12A66-47L0%0.0
1-8Colorado (34.0)P12H70-71L0%0.0
1-12Utah (80.0)P12H49-46W100%0.0
1-15Stanford (41.0)P12A80-48L0%0.0
1-18California (63.0)P12A76-55L0%0.0
1-22Oregon St. (100.0)P12H55-66L0%0.0
1-26Oregon (28.0)P12H44-71L0%0.0
2-1Washington (104.0)P12H72-67W100%0.0
2-5Colorado (34.0)P12A68-63L0%0.0
2-8Utah (80.0)P12A81-63L0%0.0
2-12California (63.0)P12H76-80L0%0.0
2-15Stanford (41.0)P12H56-69L0%0.0
2-20Oregon St. (100.0)P12A68-57L0%0.0
2-23Oregon (28.0)P12A67-53L0%0.0
2-28Washington (104.0)P12A72-49L0%0.0
3-6USC (176.0)P12H68-79L0%0.0
3-8UCLA (14.0)P12H73-55W100%0.0
3-12Stanford (41.0)P12N74-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Washington St.P1226.2626.2624.6324.63-13.32-13.32
StanfordP125.675.6760.0060.001.131.13
WashingtonP124.204.2053.3353.330.280.28
ColoradoP124.094.0965.6265.621.281.28
UtahP124.084.0864.2964.291.171.17
OregonP124.064.0670.0070.001.621.62
CaliforniaP124.054.0556.6756.670.540.54
Oregon St.P124.034.0348.2848.28-0.14-0.14
UCLAP122.652.6578.7978.791.531.53
ArizonaP122.632.6387.8887.881.991.99
Arizona St.P122.572.5764.5264.520.750.75
USCP122.572.5730.0030.00-1.03-1.03
LamarSlnd1.751.7511.1111.11-1.36-1.36
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.741.7440.0040.00-0.35-0.35
ButlerBE1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
GonzagaWCC1.721.7281.2581.251.081.08
IdahoWAC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.721.7221.4321.43-0.98-0.98
PepperdineWCC1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
PurdueB101.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA101.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
TCUB121.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
UTEPCUSA1.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
BYUWCC0.310.3166.6766.670.100.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.260.2673.5373.530.120.12
Idaho St.BSky0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
DenverSum0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
PortlandWCC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
CreightonBE0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
UC DavisBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
SeattleWAC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
DePaulBE0.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1367.8667.860.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.8114.81-0.08-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Texas TechB120.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01