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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Washington St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:159.0
Current RPI:159
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:53
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:189
Expected OOC SOS:132



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18159.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH69-65W100%0.0
11-18Creighton (26.0)BEN103-77L0%0.0
11-19Montana (221.0)BSkyN87-63W100%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCN79-88L0%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH76-88L0%0.0
11-30Utah Valley (206.0)WACH83-76W100%0.0
12-3New Orleans (154.0)SlndH54-70L0%0.0
12-7Idaho (209.0)BSkyH61-48W100%0.0
12-10Kansas St. (57.0)B12N70-56L0%0.0
12-17Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH69-68W100%0.0
12-21Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH74-66W100%0.0
1-1Washington (211.0)P12A74-79W100%0.0
1-4Oregon St. (280.0)P12N75-62W100%0.0
1-7Oregon (9.0)P12H66-85L0%0.0
1-12Stanford (100.0)P12A84-54L0%0.0
1-14California (53.0)P12A58-54L0%0.0
1-18Utah (83.0)P12H47-88L0%0.0
1-21Colorado (99.0)P12H91-89W100%0.0
1-26Arizona (2.0)P12A79-62L0%0.0
1-29Arizona St. (125.0)P12A83-91W100%0.0
2-1UCLA (16.0)P12H79-95L0%0.0
2-4USC (40.0)P12H77-86L0%0.0
2-9Utah (83.0)P12A74-70L0%0.0
2-12Colorado (99.0)P12A81-49L0%0.0
2-16Arizona (2.0)P12H59-78L0%0.0
2-18Arizona St. (125.0)P12H86-71W100%0.0
2-26Washington (211.0)P12H79-71W100%0.0
3-1USC (40.0)P12A87-64L0%0.0
3-4UCLA (16.0)P12A77-68L0%0.0
3-8Colorado (99.0)P12N73-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Washington St.P1226.2726.2734.7834.78-7.99-7.99
ColoradoP125.715.7155.1755.170.590.59
ArizonaP124.224.2287.5087.503.163.16
USCP124.194.1970.9770.971.761.76
WashingtonP124.164.1631.0331.03-1.58-1.58
UCLAP124.134.1387.1087.103.073.07
Arizona St.P124.114.1148.3948.39-0.13-0.13
UtahP124.094.0959.2659.260.760.76
OregonP122.602.6084.3884.381.791.79
CaliforniaP122.562.5662.5062.500.640.64
StanfordP122.532.5341.3841.38-0.44-0.44
Oregon St.P122.472.4713.3313.33-1.81-1.81
MontanaBSky1.971.9751.6151.610.060.06
Montana St.BSky1.891.8948.2848.28-0.07-0.07
IdahoBSky1.891.8957.1457.140.270.27
Sacramento St.BSky1.881.8839.2939.29-0.40-0.40
San Jose St.MWC1.751.7540.7440.74-0.32-0.32
Santa ClaraWCC1.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC1.721.7244.4444.44-0.19-0.19
CreightonBE1.721.7271.8871.880.750.75
New OrleansSlnd1.721.7259.2659.260.320.32
Kansas St.B121.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.300.3064.5264.520.090.09
Idaho St.BSky0.250.2513.3313.33-0.19-0.19
Weber St.BSky0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2525.8125.81-0.12-0.12
Portland St.BSky0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
Southern UtahBSky0.230.2312.9012.90-0.17-0.17
SeattleWAC0.220.2237.0437.04-0.06-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
XavierBE0.210.2161.7661.760.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.210.2196.9796.970.200.20
BYUWCC0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
UC RiversideBW0.190.1922.2222.22-0.11-0.11
WyomingMWC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.170.1767.8667.860.060.06
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
TCUB120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
ButlerBE0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
San DiegoWCC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
NevadaMWC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
UC DavisBW0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1018.5218.52-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
DenverSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01