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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Washington St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:199.7
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:283
Current Record:5-6
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1364.00.01%
16-1483.50.04%
15-1594.50.19%
14-16115.20.65%
13-17131.72.19%
12-18149.35.97%
11-19166.411.90%
10-20185.619.77%
9-21202.822.68%
8-22220.319.91%
7-23237.611.88%
6-24253.84.08%
5-25268.20.72%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UTEP (64.8)CUSAA65-52L0%0.0
11-17TCU (61.7)B12A81-54L0%0.0
11-21Idaho St. (313.9)BSkyH80-68W100%0.0
11-27UC Santa Barbara (76.6)BWN71-43L0%0.0
11-28Rice (286.9)CUSAN76-74W100%0.0
11-29Missouri St. (213.9)MVCN89-84W100%0.0
12-3Idaho (199.7)BSkyH71-77L0%0.0
12-6UTSA (271.4)CUSAH91-71W100%0.0
12-10Gonzaga (11.3)WCCA81-66L0%0.0
12-13Santa Clara (220.1)WCCA76-67L0%0.0
12-21San Jose St. (330.8)MWCH82-53W100%0.0
12-28UC Davis (129.0)BWH0-048%-0.5
1-2Stanford (68.7)P12A0-010%-14.7
1-4California (49.0)P12A0-09%-15.3
1-10Washington (29.3)P12A0-07%-17.2
1-15Oregon (104.7)P12H0-035%-4.4
1-17Oregon St. (150.2)P12H0-043%-2.1
1-21Utah (11.4)P12A0-02%-23.9
1-24Colorado (66.5)P12A0-010%-14.7
1-29California (49.0)P12H0-028%-6.8
1-31Stanford (68.7)P12H0-030%-6.1
2-5Oregon St. (150.2)P12A0-018%-10.6
2-8Oregon (104.7)P12A0-013%-13.0
2-13Arizona St. (124.4)P12H0-037%-3.8
2-15Arizona (14.2)P12H0-014%-12.8
2-22Washington (29.3)P12H0-023%-8.6
2-25USC (170.3)P12A0-032%-5.6
3-1UCLA (80.3)P12A0-013%-13.0
3-5Utah (11.4)P12H0-09%-15.4
3-7Colorado (66.5)P12H0-030%-6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Washington St.P1227.8426.2544.1927.14-3.24-12.00
WashingtonP120.434.18100.0074.890.432.08
Oregon St.P120.384.0670.0050.230.150.02
OregonP120.004.0370.0056.100.000.49
UtahP120.004.0080.0079.470.002.36
CaliforniaP120.004.0090.9167.550.001.40
StanfordP120.004.0066.6756.670.000.53
ColoradoP120.004.0066.6756.230.000.50
ArizonaP120.412.57100.0082.700.411.68
UCLAP120.212.5466.6753.510.070.18
Arizona St.P120.002.5154.5548.590.00-0.07
USCP120.002.5163.6439.190.00-0.54
UTEPCUSA4.551.8760.0071.280.910.80
RiceCUSA4.551.8420.0027.55-2.73-0.83
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.551.8428.5763.31-1.950.49
UTSACUSA4.751.8142.8636.99-0.68-0.47
UC DavisBW0.511.7987.5068.070.380.65
San Jose St.MWC4.801.780.006.78-4.80-1.54
GonzagaWCC4.551.7890.0090.413.641.44
IdahoBSky4.551.7628.5751.21-1.950.04
Santa ClaraWCC4.771.7537.5034.63-1.19-0.54
Idaho St.BSky4.551.7312.5030.53-3.41-0.67
TCUB124.831.70100.0067.274.830.59
Missouri St.MVC4.551.6737.5038.62-1.14-0.38
Cal St. FullertonBW0.480.2436.3637.27-0.13-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.210.2337.5041.68-0.05-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2360.0076.800.000.12
BYUWCC0.000.2370.0068.400.000.08
UNLVMWC0.000.2366.6750.030.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2325.0023.65-0.00-0.12
Colorado St.MWC0.740.21100.0078.190.740.12
UC RiversideBW0.000.2150.0042.770.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2018.1822.91-0.00-0.11
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2036.3650.65-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.2044.4448.17-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.230.2070.0050.570.090.00
PacificWCC0.250.2055.5638.450.03-0.05
TexasB120.000.1990.9180.170.000.12
North TexasCUSA0.000.1850.0041.130.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.510.1854.5548.690.05-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.1822.2247.34-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.1750.0042.750.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1745.4552.17-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1780.0073.560.000.08
DePaulBE0.000.1760.0034.330.00-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.280.1754.5557.750.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.230.1766.6755.760.080.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1772.7372.880.000.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1537.5056.99-0.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1572.7367.570.000.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1537.5027.75-0.00-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.000.1550.0055.800.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.820.1570.0059.860.330.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.1520.0026.61-0.00-0.07
SeattleWAC0.510.1540.0046.92-0.10-0.01
KansasB120.280.1490.0071.080.230.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.140.009.03-0.00-0.11
OklahomaB120.000.1470.0062.800.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1254.5564.030.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1290.0082.040.000.08
HawaiiBW0.000.1266.6754.450.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.1233.3346.57-0.09-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.280.1214.2930.32-0.20-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.000.1237.5044.53-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.1237.5037.29-0.05-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.280.1230.0040.39-0.11-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1225.0034.43-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.1230.0035.75-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.1230.0038.42-0.10-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1250.0039.580.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.250.1240.0043.53-0.05-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.130.000.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1262.5057.910.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1127.2729.51-0.00-0.05
NevadaMWC0.000.1111.1125.40-0.00-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.430.1133.3341.93-0.14-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1180.0058.040.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.0940.0042.88-0.05-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0940.0047.08-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0942.8648.12-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0922.2236.55-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0954.5548.910.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0950.0051.800.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.280.0977.7872.900.160.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.280.0975.0058.740.140.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0922.2236.02-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.210.0966.6763.320.070.02
New MexicoMWC0.250.0972.7361.760.110.02
BradleyMVC0.210.0930.0032.35-0.08-0.03
DenverSum0.250.0941.6751.30-0.040.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.210.0844.4437.49-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.089.0917.38-0.17-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.0816.6733.12-0.17-0.03
Texas TechB120.250.0890.0055.400.200.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.080.0026.25-0.21-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.0840.0047.83-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0850.0040.340.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.210.0870.0052.340.080.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0863.6440.220.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.0633.3343.26-0.09-0.01
MercerSC0.660.0644.4443.16-0.07-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0618.1819.54-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0680.0073.040.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.280.0677.7869.870.160.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0061.400.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0630.0029.93-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0630.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.9183.170.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5545.090.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.210.0622.2231.93-0.11-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.590.060.0039.01-0.59-0.01
SMUAmer0.490.0672.7375.960.220.03
VermontAE0.000.0640.0053.58-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0628.5761.90-0.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.11-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.410.0633.3361.51-0.140.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0053.920.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.410.0620.0045.83-0.25-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0618.1837.88-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.340.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0013.95-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.46-0.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0636.3646.70-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.740.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.050.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.2735.54-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0633.3343.01-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0640.0055.83-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.500.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8956.070.000.01
VCUA100.000.0672.7376.010.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.500.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0570.0052.050.000.00
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.480.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0590.0065.820.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0533.3328.70-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0560.0057.780.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.9170.260.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0590.9188.760.000.04
HoustonAmer0.000.0362.5041.050.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.380.0316.6736.42-0.25-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2936.23-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.0342.8633.60-0.04-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.280.0333.3334.44-0.09-0.01
Texas St.SB0.280.0350.0051.190.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.280.0337.5031.93-0.07-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.380.0357.1457.190.050.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.250.0337.5035.77-0.06-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.250.0375.0066.160.130.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.0336.3645.36-0.07-0.00
Michigan St.B100.250.0366.6766.950.080.01
NortheasternCAA0.250.0370.0059.740.100.01
Rhode IslandA100.250.0366.6773.340.080.01
RiderMAAC0.250.0350.0052.960.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.250.0340.0046.04-0.05-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.250.0355.5646.470.03-0.00
TulsaAmer0.250.0360.0056.010.050.00
Western MichiganMAC0.230.0355.5652.210.030.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.210.0380.0076.780.120.02
XavierBE0.210.0372.7367.750.090.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.450.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0380.0067.350.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0360.0038.770.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.0061.850.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0391.6755.080.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.210.0360.0042.970.04-0.00
St. John'sBE0.210.0388.8965.680.160.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0344.4449.08-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.0320.0053.25-0.120.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.67-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.31-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0362.5071.550.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0043.19-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5049.96-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0375.0063.910.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.240.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0344.4455.25-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0049.390.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0391.6772.610.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.210.0320.0044.35-0.12-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0032.37-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3340.88-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.210.0320.0046.45-0.12-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.31-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.520.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0327.2732.26-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.210.0360.0062.090.040.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0014.49-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.360.000.01