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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Washington St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:212.0
Current RPI:212
Expected SOS:28
Current SOS:28
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:1-18
Expected Conf Record:1-18
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:109



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22212.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH82-70W100%0.0
11-20Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH85-67W100%0.0
11-28Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH77-65W100%0.0
12-2Gonzaga (46.0)WCCH60-69L0%0.0
12-6Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH91-67W100%0.0
12-10Idaho (191.0)BSkyA78-74L0%0.0
12-13UTEP (215.0)CUSAH84-68W100%0.0
12-18Texas St. (238.0)SBH78-73W100%0.0
12-22Oklahoma (6.0)B12N60-88L0%0.0
12-23Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCN63-59L0%0.0
12-25New Mexico (141.0)MWCN82-59W100%0.0
1-1USC (51.0)P12H77-90L0%0.0
1-3UCLA (102.0)P12H85-78W100%0.0
1-9Washington (83.0)P12H95-99L0%0.0
1-14Arizona St. (99.0)P12A84-73L0%0.0
1-16Arizona (26.0)P12A90-66L0%0.0
1-21Utah (8.0)P12H71-92L0%0.0
1-23Colorado (35.0)P12H70-75L0%0.0
1-28USC (51.0)P12A81-71L0%0.0
1-30UCLA (102.0)P12A83-50L0%0.0
2-3Arizona (26.0)P12H64-79L0%0.0
2-6Arizona St. (99.0)P12H55-67L0%0.0
2-11Colorado (35.0)P12A88-81L0%0.0
2-14Utah (8.0)P12A88-47L0%0.0
2-18Stanford (86.0)P12H56-72L0%0.0
2-21California (16.0)P12H62-80L0%0.0
2-24Oregon (2.0)P12A76-62L0%0.0
2-28Oregon St. (33.0)P12A69-49L0%0.0
3-2Washington (83.0)P12A99-91L0%0.0
3-9Colorado (35.0)P12N80-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Washington St.P1226.2626.2619.4019.40-16.07-16.07
ColoradoP125.675.6762.0762.071.371.37
ArizonaP124.204.2074.1974.192.032.03
USCP124.194.1961.2961.290.950.95
WashingtonP124.194.1953.3353.330.280.28
UtahP124.144.1474.1974.192.002.00
UCLAP124.114.1146.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Arizona St.P124.064.0643.3343.33-0.54-0.54
OregonP122.602.6081.2581.251.631.63
CaliforniaP122.532.5368.7568.750.950.95
Oregon St.P122.522.5258.6258.620.430.43
StanfordP122.492.4946.4346.43-0.18-0.18
Northern ArizonaBSky1.881.8811.1111.11-1.46-1.46
IdahoBSky1.861.8660.0060.000.370.37
Idaho St.BSky1.861.8650.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC1.851.8577.4277.421.021.02
Portland St.BSky1.811.8139.2939.29-0.39-0.39
New MexicoMWC1.771.7754.8454.840.170.17
UTEPCUSA1.701.7058.0658.060.270.27
Northern IowaMVC1.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
Texas SouthernSWAC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
Texas St.SB1.691.6946.4346.43-0.12-0.12
OklahomaB121.671.6777.4277.420.910.91
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.2841.3841.38-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.280.2862.0762.070.070.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.2827.5927.59-0.12-0.12
BYUWCC0.260.2668.7568.750.100.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.250.2514.2914.29-0.18-0.18
UNLVMWC0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.230.2374.1974.190.110.11
North DakotaBSky0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
TexasB120.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
Iowa St.B120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Montana St.BSky0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1672.4172.410.070.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
NevadaMWC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
SMUAmer0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1383.8783.870.090.09
KansasB120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Air ForceMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
RiceCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1082.1482.140.070.07
BaylorB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01