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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


UIC

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:315.0
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:183
Current Record:4-25
Expected Record:4-25
Current Conf Record:1-16
Expected Conf Record:1-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-7
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:217



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-25315.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UIC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Drake (174.0)MVCH59-61L0%0.0
11-16Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH66-86L0%0.0
11-20Northwestern (123.0)B10H58-93L0%0.0
11-25San Diego (156.0)WCCN74-70W100%0.0
11-26Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAN78-103L0%0.0
11-27Wagner (218.0)NECN76-94W100%0.0
12-4SMU (53.0)AmerH65-73L0%0.0
12-7Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA73-70L0%0.0
12-14Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA69-75W100%0.0
12-20UC Riverside (319.0)BWA57-56L0%0.0
12-23Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA74-61L0%0.0
12-28Illinois (70.0)B10N74-60L0%0.0
1-2Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA87-72L0%0.0
1-7Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH62-75L0%0.0
1-12Wright St. (173.0)HorzA58-53L0%0.0
1-16Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH63-67L0%0.0
1-19Green Bay (58.0)HorzH64-69L0%0.0
1-22Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH64-74L0%0.0
1-25Oakland (181.0)HorzA76-75L0%0.0
1-29Detroit (230.0)HorzA74-68L0%0.0
2-1Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH46-70L0%0.0
2-5Green Bay (58.0)HorzA81-70L0%0.0
2-13Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA73-53L0%0.0
2-15Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA59-56L0%0.0
2-18Detroit (230.0)HorzH59-65L0%0.0
2-21Oakland (181.0)HorzH71-86L0%0.0
2-25Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA58-80W100%0.0
3-1Wright St. (173.0)HorzH61-68L0%0.0
3-4Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA73-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UIC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UIC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UIC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UICHorz26.4026.4015.8915.89-18.01-18.01
ValparaisoHorz6.056.0544.4444.44-0.67-0.67
MilwaukeeHorz4.614.6161.2961.291.041.04
Wright St.Horz4.514.5153.3353.330.300.30
OaklandHorz4.424.4231.0331.03-1.68-1.68
Cleveland St.Horz4.394.3960.7160.710.940.94
DetroitHorz4.364.3632.1432.14-1.56-1.56
Youngstown St.Horz4.364.3637.0437.04-1.13-1.13
Green BayHorz4.354.3576.0076.002.262.26
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.951.9529.6329.63-0.79-0.79
IllinoisB101.841.8456.2556.250.230.23
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.831.8326.6726.67-0.86-0.86
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.821.8255.1755.170.190.19
NorthwesternB101.781.7840.6240.62-0.33-0.33
DrakeMVC1.781.7844.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Colorado St.MWC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Louisiana TechCUSA1.721.7278.1278.120.970.97
San DiegoWCC1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
SMUAmer1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
UC RiversideBW1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
WagnerNEC1.721.7262.0762.070.420.42
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.2361.7661.760.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.230.2337.9337.93-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.220.2278.7978.790.130.13
BradleyMVC0.220.2237.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.210.2159.2659.260.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Michigan St.B100.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.170.1710.7110.71-0.14-0.14
ToledoMAC0.170.1781.2581.250.110.11
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
OhioMAC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Saint LouisA100.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
UC IrvineBW0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
UC DavisBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.8281.820.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.050.05
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.063.573.57-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01