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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


North Texas

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:299.7
Current RPI:297
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:217
Current Record:7-16
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:221



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16241.90.13%
12-17261.72.00%
11-18277.29.98%
10-19290.525.33%
9-20302.434.34%
8-21313.822.57%
7-22322.85.64%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-23Idaho (215.5)BSkyH63-65L0%0.0
11-24Samford (258.2)SCH72-74L0%0.0
11-25Troy (292.4)SBH74-86L0%0.0
11-30Northern Iowa (99.1)MVCA93-70L0%0.0
12-3UT Arlington (97.2)SBA90-67L0%0.0
12-5Southern Illinois (128.3)MVCH63-95L0%0.0
12-12Southern Illinois (128.3)MVCA74-66L0%0.0
12-14Nicholls St. (328.1)SlndH78-60W100%0.0
12-17Mississippi Valley St. (327.0)SWACH87-74W100%0.0
12-21Creighton (74.1)BEA105-82L0%0.0
12-29Sam Houston St. (179.7)SlndH69-64W100%0.0
1-1UTSA (343.0)CUSAA66-70W100%0.0
1-3UTEP (212.0)CUSAA84-75L0%0.0
1-9Rice (278.8)CUSAH85-74W100%0.0
1-14Marshall (121.9)CUSAH78-97L0%0.0
1-16Western Kentucky (192.6)CUSAH76-81L0%0.0
1-21Middle Tennessee (82.3)CUSAA86-64L0%0.0
1-23UAB (95.0)CUSAA78-57L0%0.0
1-30Rice (278.8)CUSAA95-87L0%0.0
2-4Southern Miss (298.6)CUSAH70-54W100%0.0
2-6Louisiana Tech (109.9)CUSAH80-69W100%0.0
2-11Old Dominion (162.1)CUSAA67-47L0%0.0
2-13Charlotte (228.9)CUSAA103-79L0%0.0
2-18FIU (243.4)CUSAH0-040%-2.8
2-20Florida Atlantic (283.7)CUSAH0-060%2.7
2-25Louisiana Tech (109.9)CUSAH0-024%-7.7
2-27Southern Miss (298.6)CUSAA0-038%-3.2
3-3Old Dominion (162.1)CUSAH0-018%-10.0
3-5Charlotte (228.9)CUSAH0-037%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North TexasCUSA26.2126.2025.7725.54-12.70-12.81
RiceCUSA4.854.1828.5730.86-2.08-1.60
Louisiana TechCUSA2.694.1377.2774.891.462.05
Southern MissCUSA2.684.1230.0030.30-1.07-1.62
CharlotteCUSA2.644.0937.5040.52-0.66-0.78
Old DominionCUSA2.644.0954.1757.440.220.61
Southern IllinoisMVC4.533.5772.0071.241.991.52
UTEPCUSA2.772.5554.1754.230.230.22
UTSACUSA2.632.4613.0413.20-1.95-1.81
MarshallCUSA2.632.4350.0051.290.000.06
Western KentuckyCUSA2.622.4240.9142.23-0.48-0.38
UABCUSA2.732.4079.1777.251.591.31
FIUCUSA0.542.3741.6742.49-0.09-0.36
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.542.3725.0025.66-0.27-1.15
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.682.3768.1867.950.970.85
TroySB2.401.9322.7323.96-1.31-1.01
UT ArlingtonSB2.411.9368.1870.860.880.81
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.351.8450.0052.510.000.09
Northern IowaMVC2.331.8456.0057.170.280.26
IdahoBSky2.261.7856.5255.270.300.19
SamfordSC2.271.7836.0038.11-0.63-0.42
Nicholls St.Slnd2.231.7618.1820.81-1.42-1.03
CreightonBE2.221.7564.0062.250.620.43
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.171.7220.0021.95-1.30-0.97
South AlabamaSB0.330.3039.1337.90-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.380.3052.3851.410.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.290.2345.8343.81-0.02-0.03
DrakeMVC0.290.2020.0022.69-0.18-0.11
Indiana St.MVC0.250.2048.0047.35-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.210.2012.0012.00-0.16-0.15
Illinois St.MVC0.170.2056.0054.070.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.160.2072.0072.970.070.09
MemphisAmer0.190.1856.0056.660.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1847.8352.95-0.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1857.1460.240.020.04
Texas St.SB0.180.1840.0038.79-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.190.1724.0027.56-0.10-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1740.0039.49-0.03-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.240.1770.8373.510.100.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.1523.8129.48-0.05-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.250.1547.6248.51-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.190.1530.0029.25-0.08-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1573.6876.550.060.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.240.1555.5652.580.030.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.190.1586.9686.020.140.11
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.1423.8124.32-0.09-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1414.2917.11-0.10-0.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1272.7371.580.070.05
New MexicoMWC0.180.1260.0060.920.040.03
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1239.1338.12-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1240.9139.87-0.03-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.1247.8349.74-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.130.1257.6956.200.020.01
The CitadelSC0.130.1229.1729.25-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1128.5735.02-0.06-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.1113.0418.03-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.090.1163.6465.350.020.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1147.8355.29-0.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.130.1153.8551.690.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0935.0034.88-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0954.1755.060.010.01
CaliforniaP120.150.0968.0065.640.050.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0921.0529.38-0.06-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0926.3232.38-0.05-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0922.2228.35-0.06-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0918.1825.82-0.06-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0947.8351.11-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.090.0964.0061.040.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.140.0913.6414.63-0.10-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.130.0942.8646.51-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0961.5455.940.020.01
TexasB120.130.0964.0061.080.040.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0948.1547.52-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.130.0934.7831.61-0.04-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.0950.0051.470.000.00
VCUA100.090.0972.0071.480.040.04
HawaiiBW0.130.0985.7183.660.090.06
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0940.0039.42-0.01-0.02
ElonCAA0.040.0948.0048.33-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0969.2369.940.030.03
Seton HallBE0.130.0970.8368.070.050.03
XavierBE0.090.0988.0084.240.070.06
NebraskaB100.130.0853.8551.650.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.0866.6768.770.040.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0845.8351.18-0.010.00
RichmondA100.090.0858.3356.260.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.0835.0039.98-0.04-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.0831.8236.20-0.05-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.0842.8641.45-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.120.0841.6737.79-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0662.5059.270.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0658.3358.450.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0638.4637.32-0.01-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0650.0051.400.000.00
SMUAmer0.100.0687.5084.290.070.04
BelmontOVC0.090.0665.3865.160.030.02
AuburnSEC0.090.0637.5034.54-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0638.4640.70-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0668.1868.210.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0684.0085.050.030.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0658.3358.870.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0656.5256.100.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0666.6763.280.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0660.8760.120.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0676.0073.910.050.03
MercerSC0.080.0664.0065.380.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.069.0911.96-0.07-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0626.0925.94-0.04-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0661.9060.140.010.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0660.8757.820.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0628.5735.58-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0638.1043.56-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0654.1750.260.010.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0652.0052.460.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.090.0644.0039.90-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0626.0928.44-0.02-0.03
VMISC0.040.0619.0519.66-0.03-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0634.7836.09-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0648.0048.31-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0623.0823.73-0.05-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0620.0019.75-0.05-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.040.0648.0045.69-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0652.1751.940.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.210.020.01
BYUWCC0.080.0669.2371.010.030.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0645.4544.05-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0654.1754.540.000.01
ButlerBE0.040.0668.0066.750.020.02
CampbellBSth0.040.0634.7834.91-0.01-0.02
DavidsonA100.040.0659.0955.710.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0613.0414.58-0.03-0.04
DePaulBE0.080.0633.3333.86-0.03-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0662.5059.800.020.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0661.5456.600.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0628.0031.38-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0682.6177.560.030.03
MichiganB100.040.0672.0068.710.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0618.1825.29-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0623.0823.86-0.02-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0632.0033.77-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0666.6766.290.030.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0638.4638.09-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0673.0870.170.020.02
PurdueB100.040.0676.9275.980.020.03
Rhode IslandA100.040.0656.0055.660.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0684.0081.460.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0633.3331.88-0.03-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0620.0022.33-0.05-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0612.5014.81-0.06-0.04
St. John'sBE0.040.0624.0023.69-0.02-0.03
SyracuseACC0.040.0668.0064.130.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0688.0086.620.060.04
WashingtonP120.040.0660.0059.040.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0665.2264.480.010.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0583.3382.060.060.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0523.0825.64-0.02-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0330.4334.38-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0362.5058.360.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0370.8370.190.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0375.0075.150.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0369.5767.210.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0362.5063.370.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0362.5063.540.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0324.0026.42-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0331.8236.10-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0342.3144.54-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0345.4545.84-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.0059.840.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0372.0066.650.020.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8346.26-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.340.010.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0368.0067.350.000.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.0068.870.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0350.0049.580.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0328.0028.34-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0330.7732.74-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0333.3331.74-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0380.0081.510.000.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0361.9062.900.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0345.8345.02-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0360.0061.790.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.050.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.0043.30-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0370.8370.070.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0322.7322.58-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0321.7425.66-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0336.3634.16-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0347.8343.65-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0375.0071.170.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0331.8234.35-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0368.1870.090.000.01
FordhamA100.050.0350.0050.420.000.00
George MasonA100.040.0336.0035.97-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.040.0344.0043.45-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0372.0069.230.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0383.3378.350.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.040.0325.0024.15-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0313.6414.93-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.970.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.040.0379.1779.050.030.02
Arizona St.P120.040.0356.0053.620.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0318.1823.04-0.03-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0337.5038.17-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.820.030.01
IUPUISum0.040.0338.4638.52-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.040.0384.0080.600.030.02
MassachusettsA100.040.0343.4842.31-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.040.0365.2264.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.040.0383.3380.440.030.02
RutgersB100.040.0320.8319.90-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.040.0380.0078.490.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0330.0030.99-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0341.6741.64-0.01-0.00
NorthwesternB100.040.0365.3862.780.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0329.6330.87-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0366.6764.740.010.01