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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


North Texas

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:195.0
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:161
Current SOS:161
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:145
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16195.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oklahoma (26.0)B12A95-82L0%0.0
11-14Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH92-78W100%0.0
11-21Columbia (130.0)IvyN66-70L0%0.0
11-22Idaho (238.0)WACN87-76L0%0.0
11-23Portland (178.0)WCCA72-77W100%0.0
11-30Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH75-61W100%0.0
12-3BYU (31.0)WCCA97-67L0%0.0
12-15Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH53-87L0%0.0
12-17Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH64-55W100%0.0
12-31Texas A&M (148.0)SECA41-61W100%0.0
1-4UC Riverside (319.0)BWH76-72W100%0.0
1-9Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH64-74L0%0.0
1-11Tulane (223.0)CUSAH62-73L0%0.0
1-16Marshall (276.0)CUSAA65-80W100%0.0
1-18Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA76-74L0%0.0
1-23UAB (152.0)CUSAH76-65W100%0.0
1-25Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH63-70L0%0.0
2-1Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA94-63L0%0.0
2-6Rice (299.0)CUSAA75-70L0%0.0
2-8Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA90-75L0%0.0
2-13Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH62-72L0%0.0
2-15East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH53-51W100%0.0
2-20FIU (202.0)CUSAA63-65W100%0.0
2-22Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA76-78W100%0.0
2-27UTSA (306.0)CUSAA62-71W100%0.0
3-2UTEP (103.0)CUSAH54-74L0%0.0
3-6Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH68-79L0%0.0
3-11Rice (299.0)CUSAN63-62W100%0.0
3-12Tulane (223.0)CUSAN66-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North TexasCUSA26.0026.0044.2244.22-3.01-3.01
TulsaCUSA4.044.0461.2961.290.910.91
TulaneCUSA3.983.9846.6746.67-0.27-0.27
RiceCUSA3.983.9815.3815.38-2.76-2.76
Louisiana TechCUSA2.442.4478.1278.121.371.37
MarshallCUSA2.322.3230.0030.00-0.93-0.93
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.312.3170.0070.000.930.93
Southern MissCUSA2.312.3180.0080.001.391.39
UTEPCUSA2.302.3066.6766.670.770.77
Old DominionCUSA2.292.2946.8846.88-0.14-0.14
UTSACUSA2.292.2923.0823.08-1.23-1.23
East CarolinaCUSA2.292.2946.4346.43-0.16-0.16
CharlotteCUSA2.292.2953.3353.330.150.15
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.262.2627.5927.59-1.01-1.01
UABCUSA2.262.2657.1457.140.320.32
FIUCUSA2.232.2348.1548.15-0.08-0.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.951.9532.0032.00-0.70-0.70
Nicholls St.Slnd1.921.9248.0048.00-0.08-0.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.891.8992.8692.861.621.62
Central ArkansasSlnd1.881.8825.0025.00-0.94-0.94
OklahomaB121.861.8670.9770.970.780.78
PortlandWCC1.831.8350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC1.811.8154.8454.840.180.18
IdahoWAC1.811.8143.7543.75-0.23-0.23
BYUWCC1.781.7865.6265.620.560.56
ColumbiaIvy1.781.7858.6258.620.310.31
UC RiversideBW1.721.7228.5728.57-0.74-0.74
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.320.3253.5753.570.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.310.3148.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.290.2914.8114.81-0.20-0.20
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.2825.9325.93-0.13-0.13
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.2568.9768.970.090.09
Oral RobertsSlnd0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.220.2236.3636.36-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.190.1910.7110.71-0.15-0.15
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Kansas St.B120.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.170.1763.3363.330.040.04
TCUB120.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.150.1586.2186.210.110.11
PrincetonIvy0.150.1570.3770.370.060.06
Georgia St.SB0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.090.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Texas TechB120.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
UC DavisBW0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
TroySB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
ElonSC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
DukeACC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.063.573.57-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01