North Texas

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	203.3
Current RPI:	200
Expected SOS:	236
Current SOS:	215
Current Record:	10-10
Expected Record:	13-13
Current Conf Record:	6-4
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	4.31%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	236
Expected OOC SOS:	226

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-10	145.9	0.74%
15-11	163.7	6.86%
14-12	183.4	23.95%
13-13	203.3	36.20%
12-14	222.8	24.66%
11-15	242.6	7.16%
10-16	262.9	0.42%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-16	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	A	69-64	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Texas Arlington (100.3)	Slnd	A	97-64	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Mississippi St. (41.7)	SEC	A	82-59	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Texas (58.4)	B12	A	73-57	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	N	72-57	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	A	63-76	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	H	53-50	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	69-55	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	82-40	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Louisiana St. (85.2)	SEC	H	58-67	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	H	66-69	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	87-65	W	100%	0.0
1-5	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	73-78	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	A	75-72	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	H	84-67	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	55-68	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	75-74	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	A	64-62	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	76-64	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	H	66-68	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Florida International (212.8)	SB	A	0-0		46%	-1.2
2-11	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	A	0-0		38%	-3.2
2-16	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	0-0		92%	15.3
2-18	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	H	0-0		63%	3.6
2-23	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	A	0-0		44%	-1.7
2-26	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	0-0		18%	-10.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Texas	SB	26.24	26.20	48.84	50.91	-0.61	0.47
Louisiana Monroe	SB	3.09	4.61	9.09	9.37	-2.53	-3.75
Arkansas St.	SB	5.37	4.59	36.36	37.49	-1.46	-1.15
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.98	4.59	40.91	41.74	-0.54	-0.76
Denver	SB	3.15	4.59	73.91	74.53	1.51	2.25
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.99	4.59	52.17	53.73	0.13	0.34
South Alabama	SB	3.05	2.66	55.00	54.99	0.30	0.27
Troy	SB	3.05	2.66	30.00	31.38	-1.22	-0.99
Middle Tennessee	SB	3.00	2.64	82.61	84.22	1.96	1.81
Western Kentucky	SB	2.89	2.64	36.36	35.71	-0.79	-0.75
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.54	2.64	36.36	38.91	-0.15	-0.59
Florida International	SB	0.44	2.60	33.33	36.49	-0.15	-0.70
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.73	2.16	77.27	71.41	1.49	0.93
Louisiana St.	SEC	2.73	2.09	57.14	55.80	0.39	0.24
Texas Tech	B12	2.68	2.06	28.57	23.43	-1.15	-1.09
Texas	B12	2.68	2.06	59.09	60.08	0.49	0.41
Grambling	SWAC	2.67	2.05	15.79	16.31	-1.83	-1.38
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.62	2.03	75.00	75.08	1.31	1.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.61	2.02	27.78	30.93	-1.16	-0.77
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.56	1.99	20.00	26.43	-1.54	-0.94
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.61	1.99	61.90	59.90	0.62	0.39
Columbia	Ivy	2.56	1.96	52.63	53.13	0.13	0.12
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.40	0.34	25.00	23.75	-0.20	-0.18
Mississippi	SEC	0.33	0.33	63.64	56.71	0.09	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.22	0.30	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.29	0.27	18.18	21.13	-0.19	-0.16
Texas A&M	B12	0.29	0.26	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.28	0.22	90.91	83.85	0.23	0.15
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.18	0.21	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.29	0.20	27.78	29.58	-0.13	-0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.20	31.82	42.13	-0.06	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.22	0.20	61.90	67.23	0.05	0.07
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.25	0.17	57.14	60.75	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.18	0.17	17.65	27.10	-0.12	-0.08
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.24	0.17	16.67	23.02	-0.16	-0.09
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.17	30.00	37.30	-0.05	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.17	17.39	24.41	-0.08	-0.09
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.18	0.17	22.22	27.62	-0.10	-0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.17	0.17	90.91	87.74	0.14	0.13
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.17	0.17	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.23	0.17	60.87	59.05	0.05	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.22	0.16	71.43	69.05	0.09	0.06
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.16	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.09
Arkansas	SEC	0.23	0.16	69.57	65.15	0.09	0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.14	90.48	87.91	0.10	0.10
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.17	0.14	13.64	16.14	-0.13	-0.09
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.14	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.13	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.13	35.00	40.78	-0.04	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.13	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.13	45.00	46.13	-0.02	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.13	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.08
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.16	0.13	27.78	29.87	-0.07	-0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.13	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.17	0.13	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.21	0.13	33.33	35.97	-0.07	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.13	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.13	95.83	92.57	0.10	0.11
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.21	0.13	4.35	9.66	-0.19	-0.10
Seattle	ind	0.21	0.13	23.53	33.28	-0.11	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.13	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.13	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.17	0.13	73.91	68.43	0.08	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.13	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.05
Missouri	B12	0.17	0.13	91.30	87.18	0.14	0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.13	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.17	0.13	45.45	40.70	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.17	0.11	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.11	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.16	0.10	69.57	73.28	0.06	0.05
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.10	85.71	82.18	0.08	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.10	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.06
California	P12	0.11	0.10	75.00	74.61	0.06	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.10	25.00	28.52	-0.06	-0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.10	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.10	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.16	0.10	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.16	0.10	77.27	77.67	0.09	0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.10	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.16	0.10	78.26	72.66	0.09	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.16	0.10	100.00	94.55	0.16	0.09
Florida	SEC	0.17	0.10	82.61	77.63	0.11	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.10	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.12	0.07	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.12	0.07	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.07	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.07	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.07	66.67	69.69	0.00	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.07	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.13	0.07	33.33	35.26	-0.04	-0.02
American	Pat	0.06	0.07	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.07	75.00	76.00	0.06	0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.00	0.07	27.27	23.80	-0.00	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.07	36.84	41.45	-0.03	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.07	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.07	33.33	33.88	-0.04	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.07	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.07	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.11	0.07	31.82	33.83	-0.04	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.07	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.07	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.00	0.07	72.22	63.19	0.00	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.07	72.22	71.97	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.12	0.07	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.12	0.07	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.12	0.07	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.07	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.07	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.07	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.07	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.07	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.07	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.07	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.07	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.07	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.07	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.07	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.07	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.07	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.07	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.11	0.07	80.00	78.06	0.07	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.07	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.07	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.04	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.07	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.04	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.04	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.04	81.82	80.43	0.04	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.04	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.04	59.09	50.82	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.07	0.04	70.83	71.64	0.03	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.04	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.04	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.04	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.04	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.04	56.52	55.20	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.00	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.00	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.03	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.00	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.00	0.01
Washington	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.00	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.00	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01