live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


North Texas

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:226.3
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:161
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-751.00.01%
19-977.00.01%
18-1093.90.10%
17-11113.90.42%
16-12132.11.47%
15-13151.73.83%
14-14172.88.79%
13-15194.914.91%
12-16216.920.24%
11-17239.020.39%
10-18259.515.52%
9-19278.29.02%
8-20294.03.70%
7-21305.31.29%
6-22314.30.26%
5-23324.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Nicholls St. (332.6)SlndH71-57W100%0.0
11-19Delaware St. (240.1)MEACH62-55W100%0.0
11-23Iona (91.5)MAACH58-78L0%0.0
11-26Mississippi Valley St. (346.8)SWACH67-52W100%0.0
11-28Arkansas (40.2)SECA89-73L0%0.0
12-3Oklahoma St. (42.3)B12A87-61L0%0.0
12-14Stephen F. Austin (68.4)SlndA59-48L0%0.0
12-21Creighton (129.9)BEH62-58W100%0.0
12-23Prairie View A&M (285.9)SWACH0-075%7.9
12-29Texas Tech (89.5)B12A0-08%-16.2
1-2UTEP (64.8)CUSAH0-025%-7.9
1-4UTSA (271.4)CUSAH0-069%5.9
1-10Rice (286.9)CUSAA0-043%-2.0
1-15Charlotte (84.8)CUSAA0-011%-14.4
1-17Old Dominion (43.1)CUSAA0-07%-17.1
1-22Louisiana Tech (118.5)CUSAH0-035%-4.4
1-24Southern Miss (287.9)CUSAH0-079%9.4
1-31Rice (286.9)CUSAH0-071%6.6
2-5Western Kentucky (144.2)CUSAA0-021%-9.4
2-7Marshall (232.1)CUSAA0-028%-6.7
2-12UAB (246.6)CUSAH0-063%3.9
2-14Middle Tennessee (197.5)CUSAH0-058%2.2
2-19Florida Atlantic (201.1)CUSAA0-027%-7.1
2-21FIU (180.9)CUSAA0-027%-7.0
2-26Charlotte (84.8)CUSAH0-031%-5.8
2-28Old Dominion (43.1)CUSAH0-023%-8.5
3-5UTEP (64.8)CUSAA0-08%-16.4
3-7UTSA (271.4)CUSAA0-041%-2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North TexasCUSA27.5426.1842.8637.54-3.93-6.52
RiceCUSA0.004.3416.6725.24-0.00-2.15
UTEPCUSA0.004.2663.6471.430.001.83
CharlotteCUSA0.004.2654.5562.990.001.11
Old DominionCUSA0.004.2690.0081.840.002.71
UTSACUSA0.004.2637.5034.88-0.00-1.29
Louisiana TechCUSA0.452.5772.7367.670.200.91
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.552.5354.5549.130.05-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.002.5337.5028.01-0.00-1.11
MarshallCUSA0.002.5322.2235.29-0.00-0.74
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.5350.0050.790.000.04
UABCUSA0.002.4730.0035.71-0.00-0.71
FIUCUSA0.002.4740.0046.17-0.00-0.19
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.4742.8647.16-0.00-0.14
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.662.000.0039.51-0.66-0.42
Oklahoma St.B126.251.9177.7856.543.470.25
Texas TechB120.001.8890.0054.150.000.16
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.251.8562.5077.281.561.01
Nicholls St.Slnd6.251.850.0019.07-6.25-1.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.251.8510.0017.96-5.00-1.18
ArkansasSEC6.851.8577.7871.513.800.79
IonaMAAC6.851.8555.5668.150.760.67
Delaware St.MEAC6.881.8440.0048.37-1.38-0.06
CreightonBE6.251.8275.0050.713.120.03
TCUB120.280.25100.0068.320.280.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.2216.6739.50-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.2116.6743.50-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.2080.0076.780.000.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.2020.0045.83-0.19-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.280.1933.3334.44-0.09-0.06
Washington St.P120.000.1945.4530.45-0.00-0.08
TexasB120.000.1990.9180.170.000.11
BaylorB120.350.1890.0073.480.280.09
LSUSEC0.000.1880.0063.750.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.180.0026.25-0.00-0.09
Iowa St.B120.310.1890.0065.820.250.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0034.55-0.00-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.310.1866.6765.440.100.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.280.180.0023.75-0.28-0.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1716.6736.42-0.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.1714.2936.23-0.00-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.240.1630.0040.39-0.10-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1590.9170.260.000.06
XavierBE0.350.1572.7367.750.160.05
OklahomaB120.240.1570.0062.800.100.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1518.1837.88-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.1528.5761.90-0.130.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.240.130.0016.07-0.24-0.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1355.5673.940.000.06
Texas St.SB0.350.1350.0051.190.000.00
Oregon St.P120.600.1370.0051.560.240.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.1357.1457.190.000.02
Wake ForestACC1.360.1245.4537.63-0.12-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1233.3361.51-0.000.03
KansasB120.000.1290.0071.080.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1238.4644.44-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1263.6440.220.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0028.78-0.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.120.009.03-0.00-0.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1220.0053.25-0.000.01
MississippiSEC0.240.1270.0052.340.100.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1270.0059.760.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1281.8266.060.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1020.0044.35-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1020.0046.45-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1075.0058.740.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1033.3346.57-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0962.5041.050.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0084.350.000.06
MemphisAmer0.660.0960.0061.850.130.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0966.6771.560.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0927.2735.54-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0944.4451.04-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6737.43-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0960.0061.400.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.520.0950.0071.160.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0991.6755.080.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0940.0032.37-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0039.580.00-0.02
George MasonA100.310.0933.3329.75-0.10-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0912.5039.50-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.280.0944.4437.49-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.450.0742.8640.42-0.06-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0714.2914.63-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.0744.4443.16-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0714.2930.32-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.450.0766.6754.590.150.01
WisconsinB100.450.0790.9188.760.370.05
Rhode IslandA100.280.0666.6773.340.090.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.0630.0042.78-0.11-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0026.86-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.350.0620.0029.06-0.21-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0032.85-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0670.0052.050.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0622.2236.02-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6763.320.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0663.6464.930.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0660.0064.830.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0082.820.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.190.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0013.95-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0011.84-0.00-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.0650.0051.710.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3341.93-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.26-0.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.560.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.240.060.0011.31-0.24-0.05
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.450.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6456.720.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.0640.0051.94-0.060.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.870.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0630.0030.65-0.12-0.02
TulsaAmer0.550.0660.0056.010.110.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.35-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5049.96-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.88-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0660.0057.960.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0657.1455.280.000.01
VCUA100.000.0672.7376.010.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0663.6464.970.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3338.71-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7368.580.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0660.0064.660.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0645.4545.06-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8976.830.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.330.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0037.46-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6765.780.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0680.0053.820.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0915.53-0.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0049.390.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.310.0650.0058.250.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.75-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0057.450.000.01
RiderMAAC0.310.0650.0052.960.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0681.8263.950.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3349.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.680.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0655.5646.470.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.420.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0630.0037.19-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0053.920.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.95-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.450.0450.0040.340.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.830.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0375.0063.910.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.51-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0054.280.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.910.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.220.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0318.1822.91-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.350.0336.3650.65-0.090.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0068.200.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.350.0390.9183.170.280.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0042.970.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0340.0055.83-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8649.26-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.67-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0034.38-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3637.27-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.280.0325.0043.91-0.14-0.00
DelawareCAA0.280.030.008.46-0.28-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.820.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0354.5553.240.000.00
HawaiiBW0.280.0366.6754.450.090.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.77-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3328.70-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.310.0391.6772.610.260.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.21-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.40-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.31-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.550.000.01
OregonP120.280.0370.0057.400.110.00
PennIvy0.280.0337.5033.40-0.07-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0363.6467.200.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.740.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0055.800.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0363.6464.150.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.920.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0327.2729.51-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0337.5049.56-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0328.5738.37-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0330.0028.28-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0333.3337.25-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.520.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.160.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.70-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0338.4634.30-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.10-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0057.780.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0014.49-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.310.0360.0043.870.06-0.00
DaytonA100.310.0380.0069.340.190.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.0340.0042.88-0.05-0.00
IndianaB100.280.0381.8263.040.180.01
Indiana St.MVC0.310.0330.0029.93-0.12-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.240.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5551.400.000.00
NebraskaB100.240.0366.6744.010.08-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.0342.8633.60-0.04-0.01
NorthwesternB100.280.0363.6442.700.08-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.240.0362.5057.910.060.00
SMUAmer0.310.0372.7375.960.140.01
South DakotaSum0.240.0333.3343.01-0.08-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.310.0340.0046.04-0.06-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.360.000.01
TulaneAmer0.280.0388.8956.070.220.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0330.0038.42-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.480.000.00
WoffordSC0.310.0377.7875.500.170.01