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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


North Texas

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:295.0
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:231
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:315
Expected OOC SOS:222



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20295.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-23Idaho (191.0)BSkyH63-65L0%0.0
11-24Samford (252.0)SCH72-74L0%0.0
11-25Troy (293.0)SBH74-86L0%0.0
11-30Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA93-70L0%0.0
12-3UT Arlington (105.0)SBA90-67L0%0.0
12-5Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH63-95L0%0.0
12-12Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA74-66L0%0.0
12-14Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH78-60W100%0.0
12-17Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH87-74W100%0.0
12-21Creighton (100.0)BEA105-82L0%0.0
12-29Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH69-64W100%0.0
1-1UTSA (347.0)CUSAA66-70W100%0.0
1-3UTEP (215.0)CUSAA84-75L0%0.0
1-9Rice (279.0)CUSAH85-74W100%0.0
1-14Marshall (128.0)CUSAH78-97L0%0.0
1-16Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH76-81L0%0.0
1-21Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAA86-64L0%0.0
1-23UAB (88.0)CUSAA78-57L0%0.0
1-30Rice (279.0)CUSAA95-87L0%0.0
2-4Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH70-54W100%0.0
2-6Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAH80-69W100%0.0
2-11Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA67-47L0%0.0
2-13Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA103-79L0%0.0
2-18FIU (270.0)CUSAH77-75W100%0.0
2-20Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH70-62W100%0.0
2-25Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA73-62L0%0.0
2-27Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA81-70L0%0.0
3-3Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH70-76L0%0.0
3-5Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH80-77W100%0.0
3-9Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAN84-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North TexasCUSA26.1826.1827.4227.42-11.82-11.82
Old DominionCUSA4.144.1460.6160.610.880.88
RiceCUSA4.084.0832.1432.14-1.46-1.46
CharlotteCUSA4.064.0641.9441.94-0.65-0.65
Western KentuckyCUSA4.044.0446.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Louisiana TechCUSA4.034.0371.4371.431.731.73
Southern MissCUSA3.983.9824.0024.00-2.07-2.07
Southern IllinoisMVC3.463.4666.6766.671.151.15
UTEPCUSA2.512.5154.8454.840.240.24
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.432.4370.0070.000.970.97
MarshallCUSA2.412.4150.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA2.402.4013.7913.79-1.74-1.74
UABCUSA2.392.3980.0080.001.431.43
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.362.3623.3323.33-1.26-1.26
FIUCUSA2.312.3137.9337.93-0.56-0.56
UT ArlingtonSB1.861.8667.7467.740.660.66
TroySB1.861.8621.4321.43-1.06-1.06
Northern IowaMVC1.821.8262.5062.500.460.46
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.801.8053.5753.570.130.13
Nicholls St.Slnd1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
IdahoBSky1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
SamfordSC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
CreightonBE1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.671.6723.5323.53-0.88-0.88
South AlabamaSB0.280.2838.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.210.2120.0020.00-0.12-0.12
Indiana St.MVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
Texas St.SB0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
BradleyMVC0.180.1812.9012.90-0.13-0.13
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
MemphisAmer0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.140.1426.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1456.0056.000.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1482.1482.140.090.09
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1487.1087.100.100.10
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0329.1729.17-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01