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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


North Texas

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:339.0
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:281
Current SOS:281
Current Record:6-22
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:2-16
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:320
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22339.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Texas Tech (124.0)B12A70-43L0%0.0
11-20Drexel (308.0)CAAH62-83L0%0.0
11-23Rutgers (177.0)B10A66-53L0%0.0
11-25Niagara (275.0)MAACH80-71W100%0.0
11-27Hartford (327.0)AEH81-78W100%0.0
12-3UT Arlington (45.0)SBH61-77L0%0.0
12-8Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH73-40W100%0.0
12-17Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndA76-70L0%0.0
12-20Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH71-65W100%0.0
12-22San Diego (205.0)WCCH68-69L0%0.0
12-31Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA101-76L0%0.0
1-2Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA55-48L0%0.0
1-5UAB (201.0)CUSAH52-54L0%0.0
1-7Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH68-79L0%0.0
1-14Rice (167.0)CUSAA101-79L0%0.0
1-19Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA75-65L0%0.0
1-21Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA81-57L0%0.0
1-26Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH81-82L0%0.0
1-28Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH67-73L0%0.0
2-4Rice (167.0)CUSAH80-95L0%0.0
2-9Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA64-70W100%0.0
2-11FIU (338.0)CUSAA90-71L0%0.0
2-16UTEP (222.0)CUSAH71-77L0%0.0
2-18UTSA (264.0)CUSAH83-73W100%0.0
2-23Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH67-85L0%0.0
2-25Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH53-76L0%0.0
3-2Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA74-63L0%0.0
3-4Marshall (112.0)CUSAA106-104L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North TexasCUSA26.1126.1116.6716.67-17.41-17.41
RiceCUSA4.434.4362.0762.071.071.07
Louisiana TechCUSA4.304.3065.5265.521.331.33
Southern MissCUSA4.274.2718.5218.52-2.69-2.69
Old DominionCUSA4.244.2458.6258.620.730.73
CharlotteCUSA4.234.2337.0437.04-1.10-1.10
MarshallCUSA2.662.6654.5554.550.240.24
UTEPCUSA2.612.6143.3343.33-0.35-0.35
UTSACUSA2.582.5840.0040.00-0.52-0.52
UABCUSA2.552.5548.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.512.5187.5087.501.881.88
Western KentuckyCUSA2.512.5145.1645.16-0.24-0.24
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.452.4529.6329.63-1.00-1.00
FIUCUSA2.422.4214.2914.29-1.73-1.73
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.901.9048.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Texas TechB121.871.8754.8454.840.180.18
NiagaraMAAC1.871.8731.2531.25-0.70-0.70
HartfordAE1.871.8729.0329.03-0.78-0.78
RutgersB101.871.8741.9441.94-0.30-0.30
DrexelCAA1.871.8723.3323.33-1.00-1.00
Delaware St.MEAC1.841.8427.5927.59-0.83-0.83
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.821.8255.1755.170.190.19
San DiegoWCC1.791.7937.9337.93-0.43-0.43
UT ArlingtonSB1.791.7973.3373.330.830.83
James MadisonCAA0.260.2628.1228.12-0.12-0.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1836.0036.00-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.170.1732.0032.00-0.06-0.06
ElonCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
LamarSlnd0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Texas St.SB0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
LSUSEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1537.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1487.5087.500.110.11
TexasB120.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
TowsonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
RiderMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
ToledoMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Wake ForestACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.08-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
St. John'sBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TroySB0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.060.06
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01