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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


North Texas

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:224.0
Current RPI:224
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:164
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:152



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17224.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH71-57W100%0.0
11-19Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH62-55W100%0.0
11-23Iona (51.0)MAACH58-78L0%0.0
11-26Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH67-52W100%0.0
11-28Arkansas (19.0)SECA89-73L0%0.0
12-3Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A87-61L0%0.0
12-14Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA59-48L0%0.0
12-21Creighton (151.0)BEH62-58W100%0.0
12-23Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH67-70L0%0.0
12-29Texas Tech (183.0)B12A60-45L0%0.0
1-2UTEP (78.0)CUSAH71-85L0%0.0
1-4UTSA (237.0)CUSAH61-71L0%0.0
1-10Rice (247.0)CUSAA63-66W100%0.0
1-15Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA73-57L0%0.0
1-17Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA61-50L0%0.0
1-22Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH73-66W100%0.0
1-24Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH71-75L0%0.0
1-31Rice (247.0)CUSAH75-65W100%0.0
2-5Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA65-59L0%0.0
2-7Marshall (296.0)CUSAA80-73L0%0.0
2-12UAB (130.0)CUSAH67-64W100%0.0
2-14Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH57-56W100%0.0
2-19Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAA72-79W100%0.0
2-21FIU (217.0)CUSAA56-70W100%0.0
2-26Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH81-65W100%0.0
2-28Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAH57-70L0%0.0
3-5UTEP (78.0)CUSAA83-60L0%0.0
3-7UTSA (237.0)CUSAA69-68L0%0.0
3-11Rice (247.0)CUSAN54-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North TexasCUSA26.2226.2238.4038.40-6.08-6.08
RiceCUSA5.905.9034.6234.62-1.82-1.82
UTEPCUSA4.204.2066.6766.671.401.40
CharlotteCUSA4.164.1643.3343.33-0.56-0.56
Old DominionCUSA4.164.1675.8675.862.152.15
UTSACUSA4.164.1638.4638.46-0.96-0.96
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.632.6354.5554.550.240.24
Louisiana TechCUSA2.592.5977.4277.421.421.42
FIUCUSA2.492.4946.6746.67-0.17-0.17
Western KentuckyCUSA2.492.4958.6258.620.430.43
UABCUSA2.462.4656.2556.250.310.31
MarshallCUSA2.462.4627.5927.59-1.10-1.10
Southern MissCUSA2.432.4323.0823.08-1.31-1.31
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.372.3726.9226.92-1.09-1.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.951.9541.9441.94-0.31-0.31
Oklahoma St.B121.831.8355.1755.170.190.19
Texas TechB121.811.8138.7138.71-0.41-0.41
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.781.7886.2186.211.291.29
Nicholls St.Slnd1.781.7828.0028.00-0.78-0.78
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.781.7819.3519.35-1.09-1.09
ArkansasSEC1.781.7875.7675.760.910.91
IonaMAAC1.781.7875.7675.760.910.91
Delaware St.MEAC1.771.7750.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE1.751.7543.7543.75-0.22-0.22
Northwestern St.Slnd0.230.2355.5655.560.030.03
TexasB120.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
TCUB120.230.2354.5554.550.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.220.2234.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Washington St.P120.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.180.1842.3142.31-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.180.1858.3358.330.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
BaylorB120.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
OklahomaB120.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
LSUSEC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Iowa St.B120.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1662.9662.960.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1572.4172.410.070.07
Oregon St.P120.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
HoustonAmer0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1330.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.126.906.90-0.10-0.10
Texas St.SB0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Kansas St.B120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.110.000.00-0.11-0.11
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1175.8675.860.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
ElonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02