North Texas

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	247.0
Current RPI:	247
Expected SOS:	185
Current SOS:	185
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	7-14
Expected Conf Record:	7-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-5
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	212
Expected OOC SOS:	182

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	247.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	71-51	L	0%
11-13	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	N	59-74	W	100%
11-19	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	N	80-66	W	100%
11-20	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	80-64	L	0%
11-28	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	59-72	L	0%
12-1	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	76-80	L	0%
12-5	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	67-63	L	0%
12-8	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	83-65	W	100%
12-16	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	45-40	W	100%
12-20	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	H	75-90	L	0%
12-29	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	70-64	L	0%
12-31	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	75-57	L	0%
1-3	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	76-59	W	100%
1-5	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	68-81	L	0%
1-10	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	67-53	L	0%
1-12	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	66-56	W	100%
1-17	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	70-64	L	0%
1-19	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	59-61	W	100%
1-24	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	64-72	L	0%
1-26	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	57-62	L	0%
1-31	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	105-74	L	0%
2-2	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	75-66	L	0%
2-7	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	59-70	L	0%
2-9	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	77-67	W	100%
2-14	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	85-73	L	0%
2-16	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	61-63	W	100%
2-21	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	66-57	W	100%
2-23	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	69-57	L	0%
2-28	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	74-50	W	100%
3-8	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	N	74-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Texas	SB	26.45	26.45	34.09	34.09	-8.42	-8.42
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	6.05	6.05	31.03	31.03	-2.29	-2.29
Western Kentucky	SB	4.62	4.62	53.12	53.12	0.29	0.29
Florida International	SB	4.51	4.51	56.67	56.67	0.60	0.60
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.49	4.49	83.87	83.87	3.04	3.04
Arkansas St.	SB	4.48	4.48	60.71	60.71	0.96	0.96
Troy	SB	4.47	4.47	38.71	38.71	-1.01	-1.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.42	4.42	8.00	8.00	-3.71	-3.71
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.41	4.41	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.41	4.41	44.83	44.83	-0.46	-0.46
South Alabama	SB	4.39	4.39	57.69	57.69	0.68	0.68
Lamar	Slnd	1.91	1.91	10.00	10.00	-1.53	-1.53
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.78	1.78	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
IUPUI	Sum	1.74	1.74	13.79	13.79	-1.26	-1.26
Virginia	ACC	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Creighton	MVC	1.67	1.67	78.79	78.79	0.96	0.96
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Lehigh	Pat	1.67	1.67	67.86	67.86	0.60	0.60
St. Louis	A10	1.67	1.67	81.25	81.25	1.04	1.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	1.67	1.67	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.30	0.30	80.65	80.65	0.18	0.18
UAB	CUSA	0.25	0.25	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.24	0.24	69.70	69.70	0.10	0.10
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.24	0.24	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.24	0.24	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.19	0.19	85.19	85.19	0.14	0.14
Florida St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.17	17.86	17.86	-0.11	-0.11
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.13	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	70.37	70.37	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02