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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


North Texas

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:300.2
Current RPI:283
Expected SOS:226
Current SOS:268
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:323
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12173.10.07%
15-13190.00.15%
14-14212.50.65%
13-15233.01.65%
12-16251.65.03%
11-17269.09.66%
10-18285.414.90%
9-19299.519.15%
8-20311.620.19%
7-21321.114.87%
6-22329.48.56%
5-23334.93.50%
4-24339.61.36%
3-25343.30.23%
2-26346.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Texas Tech (68.9)B12A70-43L0%0.0
11-20Drexel (245.8)CAAH62-83L0%0.0
11-23Rutgers (182.4)B10A66-53L0%0.0
11-25Niagara (304.2)MAACH80-71W100%0.0
11-27Hartford (335.7)AEH81-78W100%0.0
12-3UT Arlington (72.7)SBH0-017%-11.6
12-8Delaware St. (289.6)MEACH0-065%4.8
12-17Sam Houston St. (171.2)SlndA0-018%-10.8
12-20Southeastern Louisiana (203.3)SlndH0-040%-3.0
12-22San Diego (251.2)WCCH0-052%0.6
12-31Charlotte (177.2)CUSAA0-017%-11.5
1-2Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAA0-07%-17.4
1-5UAB (128.6)CUSAH0-020%-10.3
1-7Middle Tennessee (55.1)CUSAH0-014%-13.0
1-14Rice (102.7)CUSAA0-09%-16.3
1-19Southern Miss (316.2)CUSAA0-047%-0.8
1-21Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAA0-07%-17.4
1-26Charlotte (177.2)CUSAH0-033%-5.3
1-28Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAH0-017%-11.2
2-4Rice (102.7)CUSAH0-020%-10.2
2-9Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAA0-026%-7.8
2-11FIU (267.5)CUSAA0-027%-7.2
2-16UTEP (255.5)CUSAH0-043%-2.1
2-18UTSA (302.7)CUSAH0-057%2.2
2-23Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAH0-017%-11.2
2-25Southern Miss (316.2)CUSAH0-067%5.4
3-2Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAA0-029%-6.6
3-4Marshall (88.7)CUSAA0-010%-15.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North TexasCUSA28.7226.1831.5826.15-10.58-12.49
RiceCUSA0.004.3885.7167.770.001.56
Louisiana TechCUSA0.004.2940.0066.49-0.001.42
Old DominionCUSA0.004.2666.6764.250.001.21
Southern MissCUSA0.004.2533.3321.73-0.00-2.40
CharlotteCUSA0.004.2566.6749.250.00-0.06
UTSACUSA0.002.5728.5727.95-0.00-1.13
UTEPCUSA0.002.5725.0042.76-0.00-0.37
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.5342.8632.95-0.00-0.86
MarshallCUSA0.002.5383.3358.570.000.43
FIUCUSA0.002.4716.6732.30-0.00-0.87
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.4785.7172.560.001.11
UABCUSA0.002.4757.1461.300.000.56
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.4720.0032.86-0.00-0.85
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.9150.0056.300.000.24
Texas TechB1210.001.8883.3362.576.670.47
HartfordAE12.381.8714.2923.30-8.84-1.00
NiagaraMAAC12.171.8720.0027.93-7.30-0.83
DrexelCAA12.291.8733.3334.65-4.10-0.58
RutgersB1012.171.8780.0042.867.30-0.27
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.8516.6736.41-0.00-0.50
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.8250.0057.720.000.28
San DiegoWCC0.001.7928.5726.77-0.00-0.83
UT ArlingtonSB0.001.7957.1464.290.000.51
James MadisonCAA0.000.240.0028.15-0.00-0.11
Houston BaptistSlnd0.710.220.0038.51-0.71-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.1983.3361.150.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1925.0056.71-0.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.190.0034.01-0.00-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.710.190.0037.92-0.71-0.05
LSUSEC0.000.1671.4349.770.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1650.0071.330.000.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.160.0034.23-0.00-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1542.8637.25-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.620.1520.0036.00-0.38-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.1583.3358.030.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1566.6761.340.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.15100.0089.040.000.12
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.130.0042.55-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1325.0053.29-0.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.1360.0043.970.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.1350.0043.310.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.1285.7156.490.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1257.1467.020.000.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.1260.0067.410.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1242.8650.36-0.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.1242.8640.94-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1250.0054.490.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.1240.0055.44-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.1250.0036.240.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1216.6734.31-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.620.1250.0047.990.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1071.4343.020.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1075.0074.990.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1014.2926.81-0.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0013.30-0.00-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0020.01-0.00-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.000.1071.4352.370.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.09100.0069.770.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0925.0030.93-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0971.4368.100.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0928.5723.76-0.00-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.0925.0056.92-0.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0957.1440.550.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0983.3368.880.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0983.3363.610.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0023.46-0.00-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0933.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.460.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0916.6732.62-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0080.780.000.06
OhioMAC0.000.0980.0068.320.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6737.09-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0966.6775.370.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0985.7155.550.000.01
TroySB0.000.0933.3332.23-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.09100.0074.460.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0914.2934.56-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.32-0.00-0.05
DelawareCAA0.000.0940.0040.65-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.26-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0942.8644.33-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0928.5733.92-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.170.000.05
VCUA100.000.0985.7178.150.000.05
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0055.340.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0023.47-0.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.0957.1448.600.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.710.0942.8646.78-0.10-0.01
KansasB120.000.0985.7176.170.000.05
MonmouthMAAC0.710.0971.4371.570.310.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.0916.6733.82-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0785.7162.410.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.830.0671.4365.740.360.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
AuburnSEC0.710.0683.3355.200.480.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.620.0640.0037.65-0.12-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.620.0683.3357.990.420.01
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0316.6730.02-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0366.6769.810.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
DePaulBE0.830.0380.0035.960.50-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
La SalleA100.710.0360.0051.780.140.00
LafayettePat0.710.0333.3331.87-0.24-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.830.0350.0042.420.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.830.0340.0050.91-0.170.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.710.0314.2929.81-0.51-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0328.5743.62-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.710.0350.0053.560.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01